Newbie 2078 - Game Over

[kennyk]

Hello folks. I am going to go through the thread and write comments to anything I think is worth it.

[kennyk]

I would say never knowingly aligned. Are you calling Dew scum?

im saying there is 1 scum in between

Not yet 50 posts and Grandpo thinks all SEs are town and either Dorsey or Dew are town. That is what I would call reading skills. Or is it you know who's who?

[kennyk]

I'll be able to put some effort towards this game tomorrow or Tuesday morning the latest.

Thoughts with no further context:

Titus town
Grandpa iffy
Dorsey slightly townie
Alwaysnever slightly above dorsey
Greeting is meh
I had something about uhuh but immediately forgot what it was
Dew I've got nothing

That is what I call an early read list. It is still RVS and most players didn't even post five serious posts. Is this deliberately trying to draw our read on someone in a certain direction?

[kennyk]

.

.

It is always good if the mod wants to make a point.
(Sorry, but I couldn't let that one slip)

[kennyk]

I can smell the desperation of Dorsey to get the attention off himself. I always find this suspicious in mafia games.

What I'm about to say is obvious to (I think) everyone but I want to show my train of thought. The goal of town is to remove all of the mafia. The goal of the mafia is to remove enough townies so that their number equates to that of townies. Since the numbers of mafia are far smaller than that of town, the loss of each mafia goon is, especially at the very beginning of the game, is a bigger blow to the mafia than a loss of a townie being a blow to the town team. In case of this game, from what I've gathered, we have a 2 mafia-7 townies setup. The mafia really

cannot

allow themselves to throw any of those two under the bus, especially in the earliest stage of the game.

That being said, I shall change my vote and VOTE: Dorsey.

Trying to desperately getting attention off ones back in my eyes in no scumtell. Especially for newbies like Dorsey I guess it is an absolute normal thing to get out of the line of fire even if one is town. Everyone wants to win and in most cases that means survival.

The general talk about the 2-7 setup is correct but I don't like the conclusions you draw out of them.

[kennyk]

I'm going to try to post my "thoughts" tomorrow. Currently, I'm okay with my vote on Dorsey.
I feel like they are getting pretty defensive quickly, which is prob just a playstyle?

What's wrong with my profile picture?

As it's also with this post, even though it is in the RVS.

But I do find it interesting how Dorsey kinda "pushes" me about the whole aligned thing.

I would say never knowingly aligned. Are you calling Dew scum?

And if you're saying there's '1 scum in between', which one is the scum? And how are you drawing this conclusion? And why would the scum not be Dew if she initiated the interaction?

Do you have any special connection to Dew? Is that why you're bussing her while targeting me...? I'm just spitballing here.

A few examples here ^
Need to think if that's a more town or mafia thing to do tho.

I totally disagree with my predecessor here.
The first quote just looks like RVS smalltalk. And the rest doesn't look like an attack on Dew but more as an attack on the accusor.

[kennyk]

VOTE: UhUhWaitAndSee

This came out of nowhere to me. I don't like it.
With this I am halfway through the thread. As a headache is forming in my head I'll do the rest tomorrow.

[kennyk]

Sorry been busy with life. Also, how could I be partners with Greeting when we literally put each other at l-1? I'm perfectly willing to die btw if it gets Greeting/scum out.

also i claim vt. Honestly, can't think of much to say. Greeting is confirmed scum in my eyes, and I think the last scum is between grandpa and uhuh. besides that, not much else I can think of.

"confirmed scum" on day one is quite heavy stuff. I could live with heavy scum lean or something along that line. But confrimed? No.

[kennyk]

Also I'll probably vote Greeting over TL. I don't know if low post count coincides with being an easy target.

VOTE: Greeting

You haven’t voiced any suspicion of me and now you’re suddenly down to vote me out? Conveniently, when TL The Legend is at E-1?

That was exactly my reaction.

[kennyk]

Do you feel like a slot repeatedly replacing out in a newbie means it's scum?

My feeling would be the just the other way round. Isn't it way more interesting to try and trick someone in believing you are innocent than to fish in muddy waters? My personal favorite is being scum, than town PR and last is VT. But that is just my view on the game in general. Either way it means nothing in my eyes.

Who knows why some people leave after a few posts, especially in newbie games? Maybe the game in general is not as they expected and they just leave for new horizons.

[kennyk]

dont vote titus. never vote titus day 1. i have a good reason for it to. believe me

I think I know what you mean by this. I have a post saved with my reason, but wanted to read the whole thread first before posting it (if I feel like posting it at all).

[kennyk]

Disagree dew is a bad day 1 vote and kennyk repping in and letting the deadline run down is fairly indicative. Convince me dew can't be partnered with either greeting or TL and I'll reconsider.

I guess I owe everyone an excuse there. I applied for the Dew-spot on friday morning (my time zone). Before I got the role PM the router in our house crashed big time. We needed a new one, whoch we ordered. But it wasn't delivered on saturday (as advertised). We called our provider again and now they told us we needed to confirm our order via e-mail. And as it was an e-mail-account we only used on the now internetless PC no one in our household thought about checking that account (and it wouldn't have helped either, with no connection to the www).
Long story short: It took more than three days to connect us to the outside digital world again. Thankfully Micc let me in this game again despite this sh*t happening.

[kennyk]

Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts

Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.

I think the (theoretical) probabilities are
jailkeeper > doctor > no kill > scum roleblocked other scum

As there are three setups with a JK and the JK has the chance to either jail the killing scum or the target it is more likely than the two setups with a lucky doctor. As no one claimed a town PR day 1.1 I don't see why scum would not try to nightkill. And the highly unlikely scenario where a scum roleblocker blocks his own teammate only makes sence if scum knows there is a tracker, which they don't.

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

[kennyk]

Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

I guess I explained my reasons for not confirming earlier (= between your post 470 and this right now).

Yes, my posts look like I only saw half the argument. But that is because of the was I do the catch-up. I started at post 0 and read the thread post by post. Whenever there was something I thought that needed a reply, I replied to. Most times I didn't scan the thread for rebuttals as to not forget what I wanted to say. I am sorry if y<ou had the impression I wanted to attack you with those old stories, but they were not fully discussed at the quoted posts.

[kennyk]

Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts

Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.

I think the (theoretical) probabilities are
jailkeeper > doctor > no kill > scum roleblocked other scum

As there are three setups with a JK and the JK has the chance to either jail the killing scum or the target it is more likely than the two setups with a lucky doctor. As no one claimed a town PR day 1.1 I don't see why scum would not try to nightkill. And the highly unlikely scenario where a scum roleblocker blocks his own teammate only makes sence if scum knows there is a tracker, which they don't.

can we stop?

mafia doesn't role block scum
mafia doesn't no kill day 1.

titus putting as fn makes it likely its jk / doc.

all this extra talk about scum not killing / other impossible scenarios are just all filler that makes it seem like scum is tryna be productive when in reality its not and only just makes u look worse trying to talk about scenarios that would never happen.

As I said, I am still catching up. I doubted (and still soubt) it very much, that mafia did one of those two things. But it was (and is) a possibility. I wrote this before I got to the "Titus is fn"-part. I now would give those four scenarios totally different probabilities.
Oh and btw. I could accuse you of doing things worse as you were accusing me of doing: I was talking about possible but unlikely scenarios. You are suggesting an impossible scenario: There is no "friendly neighbor/doctor" setup. So in 99.9 % of cases the jailkeeper has to be the second town PR (I'll leave the 0.1 % to the tracker and scum doing what scum doesn't do in your world).

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

wtf is this now.. you are bringing up this possibility. there is no way u are vt.

VOTE: Kennyk

I literally just said stop making hypothetical situations that is very uncommon. and now you come up with the craziest fucking idea sob

With this post I ended my catch-up.
No, I didn't see your stop-post before said reply (which was meant to be more like a joke than to point out a real possibility). But I ask myself why you so firmly want me to stop thinking about uncommon situations. Are you scum and trying to perform a clever trick?

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

VOTE: KennyK

Yeah, only possible if we managed to not kill a single other PR or get caught by them in night actions nor CCed. That's not even a strategy I'd let a newbie do and I don't really care to win in newbies.

I guess this forum needs an irony-sign-smiley. As said, that post wasn't meant to be taken serious.

[kennyk]

I have a general question. And allthough some don't seem to like people who try to work more on the game mechanic side, it has to to with just that.

I totally see, why the JK shouldn't claim just now. The only info gained is his target for n1 which is either scum attacker or scum target. So worst case is the JK targeted another townie, we miselim that townie and our JK is NKed. So our JK should stay silent for now.

But what should he do n2? Protect Titus our only confirmed townie, try his first target again in hope that he got scum as his first target and the same scum tries to kill again or try his luck with someone else?
Protecting Titus might lead us (with very lucky NKs) to a 2-1 situation where Titus has to do the right choice between scum and JK.
Trying the same target again could lead to a no kill again. But only if our JK did hit the scum assassin. If he targeted the scum target or mafia changes the killer this leads nowhere.
Targeting someone else is a total gamble.

Any other thoughts on this?

[kennyk]

UNVOTE: KennyK

I am bad with jokes.

Me, too. But the difference is, you are thinking you are bad at getting them. I am (very) bad at making them.

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

wtf is this now.. you are bringing up this possibility. there is no way u are vt.

VOTE: Kennyk

I literally just said stop making hypothetical situations that is very uncommon. and now you come up with the craziest fucking idea sob

With this post I ended my catch-up.
No, I didn't see your stop-post before said reply (which was meant to be more like a joke than to point out a real possibility). But I ask myself why you so firmly want me to stop thinking about uncommon situations. Are you scum and trying to perform a clever trick?

still tho -- we already talked bout it and u even brought up to times and I had already told u to stop but u made a new post talking bout Titus and thing scum. yes I'm scum reading like for making that possibility but no that's only 50 percent of the scum read, the other scumread part of it is how u did it and just persisted to find a scumread with it. just like you are doing so right now >> me telling u to stop is getting u to think that I could scum for it.

it just feels like you are flailing rn lmfao

First of all I don't like to be told what to do and what not to do. There is absolutely no rule against posting theories of what happens however unlikely they might be.
Second I already mentioned why I posted those theories.
Third I think you might be a good mindreader ... not. I did in no way try to suggest that Titus is scum with that first quoted post. It was, as explained, a bad joke, which seems to be not quite as apparent as I thought. And no I didn't read you as scum or tried to do so.
Forth I don't like the tone towards me in those three posts. Way too many f-words and all. But hey, if that's your style...

[kennyk]

@ AlwaysNever: If scum didn't do anything very stupid your two scenarios of what the JK did are correct. It is also correct that we have a rolecop in this setup. It would be the sensible thing as mafia to share the "work" meaning that the mafia goon is the killer and the rolecop is doing his thing. This way at least one of the two things they want to achieve is bound to get through. But it is possible that the rolecop did his research and the kill. Which in case of the JK jailing him would both have failed.
Yes, I know this is an unlikely scenario but still not too uncommon to mention it.

As far as I read the role descriptions Titus could have sent her message to anyone. Except her or that person being blocked it would have gone though even if that person was scum. Withholding the message after Titus question would have been suicidal as scum, because Titus would have figured out the setup. And with the given setup and Greeting not getting the message he would be 50 % scum and with that a probable day 2 (or 1.1) elim. So we don't know anything about Greetings from the fact he got this message except he can't be the jailed scum killer.
OK, he could have been the jailed scum killer. As he knew we are in the B-setups (him or his partner being the mafia rolecop) and knowing his kill didn't get through he could have deducted we are in the B2-setup and there is a fn around. With this he could have guessed what Titus question about him getting a message was meant to mean. And so he could have made up the fact that Titus message to him got through. I know this is a very farfetched theory so I doubt this is what happend.

[kennyk]

Semi-V/LA for the weekend, but...
- Confirming there's no way RCEnigma and UhUhWaitAndSee are masons (I'm still trying to figure out why RCE is ignoring me regarding UhUh)
- kennyk thinks scum is someone who hasn't replaced (like RCE and UhUh)
- GrandpaMo thinks I'm dumb and my suspicions are stupid. Obviously, I disagree. Why do you think both of them are town?

I find it hard to believe that both RCE and GrandpaMo coincidentally agreed not to elim Titus D1 without knowing her alignment. Idk if it's worthwhile to try to appeal to a player earlier on in the game.

Why should RCE and UhUh be masons? I thought the setup was clear. And I thought I had unlikely theories.

And no, I am not thinking that scum is someone who hasn't been replaced just because of the facr he hasn't been replaced. I just said that, apart from many other reasons such as real life and generally being bored with the game, the fact that I think it is more interesting to play as scum let's me think it is a bit more likely to leave when one is VT. That does not in any way mean I think those who have been replaced are all VT and scum therefor must be one of those left over from the start.

[kennyk]

No one said RCE and UhUh should be masons, kennyk, but thank you for the filler.

Now you are accusing me of doing filler posts because I commented your post? If one is to be accused of writing crazy things about them being masons it is you. I even quoted your post where you mentioned it.

Here it is again in case you missed it (the word mason bolded):

- Confirming there's no way RCEnigma and UhUhWaitAndSee are

masons

[kennyk]

Thank you for showing that I was right - I didn't say RCE and UhUh should be masons, I said it's confirmed that they're not so there was no logical town-oriented reason why RCE would protect him now that we know the setup doesn't include masons.

Yes, "and I thought I had unlikely theories" = filler.

You just said it is confirmed they are not masons. Than you continued with saying you were still trying to figure out why RCE ignores you. You never elaborated that you had the theory that they could be masons and all you described is because of that setup. With the information you gave in post 531 I wouldn't have bothered to comment because it all makes sense that way.

And if you try to build up a crude accusation on me just trying to look helpful by pointing at single sentences that are in your eyes fillers, I like to point at posts 527, 528 and 529. Three posts in 7 minutes directed at the same person about the same subject. Are you trying to raise your post count?

[kennyk]

Wanted to post a readlist but not without doing a proper research before. This takes longer than I expected and I need to leave now. So my readlist will follow tomorrow.

[kennyk]

I promised you a read list which was backed up by ISOs. I had three reads ready and saved that draft. Now I wanted to load that draft and what did I get? A draft from last week that I didn't really need
I now lack the enthusiasm to start that all over again. So here is just a short version of a read list:

town:
Titus: confirmed unless there is something so strange going on that even I couldn't think of

townlean
RCEnigma: his efforts to solve this game seem to be genuine, so I tend to trust him a bit. But demanding readlists of nearly everyone and not posting one himself gets me to think.

nul
UhUhWaitAndSee: can't really get a grip on them. If I should write something down about them it will most likely lead to an almost empty sheet of paper.
AlwaysNever: Nearly the same goes here. Maybe it is because both are newbies.

scumlean
Greeting: Had him ISOed yesterday. I think that his post on D1 asking if Titus was claiming looks a bit like fishing for a town PR. Him revealing that he got a message from Titus is not getting him off the hook (as explained).
GrandpaMo: I have some bad gut feelings about him. He is confusing sometimes (more on that in another post).

scum
Dorsey: more on this in one of my next posts.

[kennyk]

@GrandpaMo is really messy. Honestly, just reading their posts gives me a headache. It’s hard to make sense of them. I would say that they are hiding in plain sight in a bold and messy style. It’s a strategy I had used before in mafia games when I rolled scum and managed to pull it off more than once, so I know it can be done. Sometimes I think I could imagine him spinning the wheel to pick the mood to express in their next post in the game.

what???

u literally have never intereacted with me to call me confusing. like what is confusing about me? i have epxlained everything that was needed to be said.

literally look at how i play. anything i have done so far is very nai

Why couldn't Greeting think your posts are confusing even though he didn't interact with you. He is able to read your interactions with others and they could be confusing at times, like the sentence starting with "3 people" in the following quote. I read it five times and still don't get it.

- GrandpaMo thinks I'm dumb and my suspicions are stupid. Obviously, I disagree. Why do you think both of them are town?

when have i fucking said this?

im literally getting frustrated now.

3 people have come out and said something about me saying something dumb or acting // or acting confused like if one person calls me confusing, but this person is saying i called them dumb then obviously that negates the confusion part because that person then wasnt just reading.

but when have i ever said this?

And why are you saying that everything you did so far is nai? Is that what you try to achieve: look as nai as possible?

[kennyk]

we kind of let greeting off the hook and i dont really recall why.

im the only one that pushed greeting after this flip. and will gladly do so.

kennyk is being voted rn because of the bad postprogression earlier when i had interactions with them.

it looks like when iquiet down, the game quiet downs hmm i wonder why...

smh

You forget those three votes on Uhuh and two on Dorsey. One could call that quiet, but ...

[kennyk]

Are some of you guys in primary school

That's the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

VOTE: Dorsey

I don't blame them for the D1 Dew/Dorsey thing that from my point of view was exaggerated way more than it should have by thirds. But the whole attitude and the mentioned mason thing feel so bad I just have to cast that vote.

[kennyk]

Are some of you guys in primary school

That's the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

VOTE: Dorsey

I don't blame them for the D1 Dew/Dorsey thing that from my point of view was exaggerated way more than it should have by thirds. But the whole attitude and the mentioned mason thing feel so bad I just have to cast that vote.

As soon as I clicked on "Submit" I realised I forgot to add:
This is

E-2

.

[kennyk]

Interesting, I'd like a VC.

If our mod was right (and our mod is always right. Hail to our game mod!) this should be it:

unofficial Votecount 2.035

UhUhWaitAndSee (3) -

Dorsey, Titus, AlwaysNever

Dorsey (3) -

Greeting, UhUhWaitAndSee, kennyk

kennyk (1) -

GrandpaMo

Not Voting (1) -

RCEnigma

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2021-09-29 23:55:00).

[kennyk]

So that's a no? No one's in primary school?

Are we voting for scum or just least popular? Because you explained nothing.

So much for fillers ...

As you could read in my readlist I see you as scum and that's where I vote. If I was voting the least popular I would have voted UhUh who had three votes before my post (you had two).

I explained part of my motives in my vote post and the rest was here:post 538

[kennyk]

So you're voting me because you misinterpreted and don't like that I corrected you and because I attempted to understand why there's so much misinterpretation by asking demographic info about the audience that's misinterpreting.

Unless I'm... misinterpreting...

If it was a misonterpretation on my part and a correction on your part, all would be fine. But you just threw a part of a theory into the room without explaining it. And it took you two posts to even try to explain it.

Than your attempt to accuse me of posting filler sentences while you yourself try to boost your post count by multiple single sentence posts in a row (some of them count very well be interpreted aswhole filler posts).

And now trying to tell us that the question "Are some of you guys in primary school?" is a question to gather demographic infos and not an insult is just ridiculous. But I guess I will try to use this tactic in real life. Instead of direct insults rephrasing it as a question and claiming it is for demographic reasons is just

[kennyk]

Hmm leaning kennyk

VOTE: Greeting

will post why after my class is over, but I've said on my reads that a certain flip of certain players would made me instantly scumlean him, and that Dorsey JK flip was one of those.

If I take a look at what happened with a neutral view, those are the two names that would come to my mind. Let me explain you why:
UhUh voted exactly once on day 1 an 2. On D1 the vote was on my slot and on D2 it was on Dorsey. Each time is was an early vote that was never changed. But what is most interesting about the voting is, UhUh was not on the train that eliminated TL/Hockey on D1. So one confirmed scum wasn't on it. I know it is not impossible, but how big are the chances, that no scum was on that train? I guess that those chances are low.

So who was on that train when the hammer fell? The votecount says kennyk, Greeting, GrandpaMo, Dorsey, RCEnigma. With Dorsey that leaves four possible suspects.

At the time Dorsey claimed, there were three votes on them: Greeting, UhUhWaitAndSee, kennyk. With UhUh now being confscum that leaves two votes that coincidently were on the Hockey-train as well: me and Greeting. The question is of mafia went on this train with all might to stop an UhUh elim or not. If so, it are those two names.

And as I know my role, for me this just leaves Greeting. So I would really like to go with him as I had him on my scumlean list yesterday. If you all agree to elim me first it is OK with me as long as you elim him tomorrow.

VOTE: Greeting

[kennyk]

It is always the same. I start to write a reply which contains a vote. I say to myself: "Don't forget to write it is

E-2

!" And when is the next time I think of this? After I pressed "Submit".

[kennyk]

Hmm leaning kennyk

VOTE: Greeting

will post why after my class is over, but I've said on my reads that a certain flip of certain players would made me instantly scumlean him, and that Dorsey JK flip was one of those.

If I take a look at what happened with a neutral view, those are the two names that would come to my mind. Let me explain you why:
UhUh voted exactly once on day 1 an 2. On D1 the vote was on my slot and on D2 it was on Dorsey. Each time is was an early vote that was never changed. But what is most interesting about the voting is, UhUh was not on the train that eliminated TL/Hockey on D1. So one confirmed scum wasn't on it. I know it is not impossible, but how big are the chances, that no scum was on that train? I guess that those chances are low.

So who was on that train when the hammer fell? The votecount says kennyk, Greeting, GrandpaMo, Dorsey, RCEnigma. With Dorsey that leaves four possible suspects.

At the time Dorsey claimed, there were three votes on them: Greeting, UhUhWaitAndSee, kennyk. With UhUh now being confscum that leaves two votes that coincidently were on the Hockey-train as well: me and Greeting. The question is of mafia went on this train with all might to stop an UhUh elim or not. If so, it are those two names.

And as I know my role, for me this just leaves Greeting. So I would really like to go with him as I had him on my scumlean list yesterday. If you all agree to elim me first it is OK with me as long as you elim him tomorrow.

VOTE: Greeting

btw just wanna point out, it's kinda unfair to bring d1 wagon at this point cause your slot was kind of empty going to the end of d1, and so we have no info on how your slot going to vote on that wagon.

In the end though, the game I guess is kinda solved, no matter the order we go through. Dorsey is right, once again. Is there a way to end it quicker, like endgame it? In a FM game in another forum, they can end it by voting up an endgame plan, I assume that those rule can't be done here?

Do you mean I am unfair to my own slot? Interesting

[kennyk]

ok i think as just much as i want to condemn kennyk here, i think the best option for us is to always nc here, since we are in a world of evens.

especially in this playerlist, where no one is dead -- the mafia kill does actually give us info.

VOTE: Sleep

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

I like those posts. I thought that after Greetings flipped green I had handed over the whole game to scum with my theory. I was sure I was going to be quickly eliminated today. And that would have gotten us into a 2-1 night, 1-1 day --> game over for town.

I really thought tha Greetings could have been the one. But what really strikes me as odd is the fact, that that wagon got through so fast. No one doubted my theory of both mafia being on the Dorsey train. This doesn't feel good. So I had my doubts about Grandpa and RCE as they followed me more or less blindly and very fast. And both were on the train that hammered Hockey D1. As stated I think it is highly unlikely, that no scum was on that one. But on the other hand it is also possible, that if UhUh and Always were the scum team (both newbies) they tried to avoid just that.

I am begining to feel really paranoid.
Vote for Grandpa who hammered? But he made the posts above. But what if he wanted to pocket someone with them? But then again, why would he need to? He could have just voted me as I put myself in the spotlight D3.
Vote RCE for hopping on my train so fast? But what if Always played it really slow?

I really can't make up my mind right now.

VOTE: no elimination

[kennyk]

I am always forgetting something.
I wanted to point out the fact, that strategically a no elim is giving town better chances than more or less randomly voting someone off. So that is a big part of my vote, too.

[kennyk]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

[kennyk]

ok i think as just much as i want to condemn kennyk here, i think the best option for us is to always nc here, since we are in a world of evens.

especially in this playerlist, where no one is dead -- the mafia kill does actually give us info.

VOTE: Sleep

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

I like those posts. I thought that after Greetings flipped green I had handed over the whole game to scum with my theory. I was sure I was going to be quickly eliminated today. And that would have gotten us into a 2-1 night, 1-1 day --> game over for town.

I really thought tha Greetings could have been the one. But what really strikes me as odd is the fact, that that wagon got through so fast. No one doubted my theory of both mafia being on the Dorsey train. This doesn't feel good. So I had my doubts about Grandpa and RCE as they followed me more or less blindly and very fast. And both were on the train that hammered Hockey D1. As stated I think it is highly unlikely, that no scum was on that one. But on the other hand it is also possible, that if UhUh and Always were the scum team (both newbies) they tried to avoid just that.

I am begining to feel really paranoid.
Vote for Grandpa who hammered? But he made the posts above. But what if he wanted to pocket someone with them? But then again, why would he need to? He could have just voted me as I put myself in the spotlight D3.
Vote RCE for hopping on my train so fast? But what if Always played it really slow?

I really can't make up my mind right now.

VOTE: no elimination

I am always forgetting something.
I wanted to point out the fact, that strategically a no elim is giving town better chances than more or less randomly voting someone off. So that is a big part of my vote, too.

to be honest with you, I didn't regard your theory so much because I have my own theory on Greeting, but I see now that I was mistaking bad reads as being scummy, and I kinda felt bad about it.

to elaborate, I also agree with you right now about not making up my damn mind right now, but that doesn't mean we should no elim immediately. no elim meant we're handing the initiative to scum to decide which of the three they want for the last day, and I don't feel good about that. It'd give us only a flip info, and then nothing else. I'd rather that we no elim because we ran out of time instead of voting to no elim, because at least with that, we can have posts that we could bring to the last day as argument and theory on who should we vote.

voting no elim would just give us less than that, and just allow scum to hide in past posts as proof that they're not scum.

I agree with you that the no-elim option shouldn't be choosen to fast. So for now I UNVOTE: no elimination

And to be clear about the Greeting-wagon: I specifically don't see you in a bad light for being on that wagon, because you were on it before I posted my theory. So you must have had another reason. Sure, you didn't unvote while you had the chance. But my eyes are more on those two voting after us and finishing the wagon off so quick.

[kennyk]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

[kennyk]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

hmmm I don't know, I tend not to look at whether people are online or not at a certain time to determine if they're scum. In games I previously played, it was even strictly forbidden to bring this to consideration cause it would be considered as angleshooting, idk if this constitute as one here as well but I'm just gonna play it safe

In general I don't use online times as a method to detect scum either. One thing is that it can't be proven later on. The "Last visited" stat refreshes every time one visits. And even if there are posts in other threads/games it doesn't mean to much. But since RCE didn't post anything on D4 I was just curious if he has been online since the day started or not. If he was, one

could

(!) argue, he was deliberately ignoring this game by not posting. And even if he was ignoring it, that is no direct sign for him being scum.

But as I looked at his stats he wasn't logged in for quite sone time and I just began to wonder, if this could clear him. As said, it didn't. So it is NAI right now.

[kennyk]

fuck fuck fuck i just realized kenny fucking scumslipped LOL

if gpa is on and about to post here, I want you to explain what this means too, cause I can't get an angle on kenny and it's worrying me at this point

and also I just realized that he said that and then decided to vote no elim today instead cause it was the most "optimal" play?

what

I would also be glad to hear how I should have scumslipped.

*ironyon*Now I have the proof that you are scum AlwaysNever: You did post number 666. That is the evil number.*ironyoff*

[kennyk]

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

Holy fuck, please stop.

This is not how you play mafia.

There is 1000 multiple choices of what could have happened during the game, let's not play the game like that because 1st: It's just bad. 2nd: 98% it's not correct. (Flashback to a game where I was scum and offline through all the night and still made a choice).

Some people also toggle on invisible. It's just many factors; and not a reliable tool of measure; it's also shitty and OGI at times which goes against the rules.

This is coming from the same person who kept making up this possibility where Mafia no killed.

I am not suprised, you would make this analyze.

I want to punish ALwaysNever for pushing a vote, which scum usually does push vote to get the game over with or is it Kennyk again pushing wild narratives. I mean you have said you wanted to push RC but haven't voted for them because you are probably waiting for me to vote so you could just hammer.

If you look back a few posts you could see I voted for no elim, too, because it is the best strategy we have. I unvoted so scum couldn't hammer the no elim and end the discussion early.

And I also said that i would vote RCE if I had to vote someone. But I don't ned to vote someone so I don't vote him. This is because a) there is a superior strategy (no elim today) and b) it could also be you waiting for me to vote RCE and you just hammering.

[kennyk]

also its just the most optimal mechancial play ^

can you elaborate on why it is the most optimal? doesn't letting it no elim just makes the next day E-Lo and it became the game of "who can you pocket better"?

I know I am answering for Grandpa here (he's too old to answer for himself ), but let's just have a look at the numbers:

We are E-Lo right now. We are 4 still alive with 1 scum, so it is 3-1. If we miselim, the night starts with 2-1 and ends with 1-1. No elim possible tomorrow and mafia wins.

If we no-elim today and scum kills tonight we are at 2-1 tomorrow. If we miselim than, it is also game over for town.

So from the point of every town player we today have a 33 % chance to hit the right target (as 2 of the other 3 players are town and would be miselim and one is the jackpot). By no-elim today and a nightkill the remaining two townies have a 50 % chance to hit the right one (math should be obvious).

Admittedly this is just the number crunshing if we had no further info from the game so far. But the feelings we get from other players have to be better than the 50 % in said mechanical play. I on my part don't have those feelings right now. So I am willing to do the gamble now.

I know there is the possibility, that scum thinks "Why should I make towns chances better?" after a no-elim today and that results in a no-kill next night leaving us where we are right now.

Concerning this scenario:

@mod:

Is a "... and they lived happily ever after"-scenario possible? I couldn't find anything in your rules that forbids a draw.

Yes this is correct. However, let me elaborate more.

Yes we will be playing on scum's tempo, but that's the norm for final 4's.

There is no tempo to play unless to grant more time now.

Letting scum play the night is more strategic for town to concur. This is because we can analyze why scum killed during the night.

It is more of WIFOM stiution yes. It's kinda hypocritical for AlwaysNever to say we shouldn't be voting right now, but us sleeping gives us more time now in this day + f3. And if we are wrong about the vote in a f4, we auto lose compared to f3. That's why we always mechanically vote for no one here.

I initially also towered you @AlwaysNever. I was the first to come out and say you were town and RCEnigma rebuked that.

No, see, I don't mind no elimming today, I just don't want to do it right this second, I'd rather let the timer run out while we discuss rather than immediately voting to no elim, I can't see why voting no elim right now would give us more time, please enlighten me on that

If you prefered to just let the day run out (which is OK as far as I can see), why is your vote still on RCE?

[kennyk]

Want to apologize for the poor etiquette day 3, we should have used that time more efficiently with Titus still alive and speed elimming is a bad habit to give newbies.

That said I don't want to get fancy and wifom myself out of kennyk as scum 2.

I have like a small amount of paranoia about grandpamo but it's literally only "was he tmi'ing when he challenged me suspecting alwaysnever by saying he's always town here". Because there is the possibility he knows always' alignment.

More signs just point to kennyk as the last scum though. Grandpa already pointed out kennyk waiting for a second vote, I'd agree. Scum isn't in the position to make a move themselves and need town to make it for them.

Also no elim is always the right play here.

atp if everyone is agreeing with like my points + logic that means I should probably be the towniest person here fypov.

it just implies scum is town reading me because they don't want to try and build a scum case on a hard player.

I only kind of agree. You still could be scum trying to get as much towncred as you could. And with this towncred you would be the one not voted on on day 5. Admittedly with everything happening on our last day just pushing a miselim on me would have been way easier, I guess.

[kennyk]

If you prefered to just let the day run out (which is OK as far as I can see), why is your vote still on RCE?

would you rather that I vote you instead?
also I was waiting for RCE to respond in thread to my vote, but he didn't even notice it so....

If I had to vote someone right now I would tend to lean to vote RCE, too.

I just briefly had the thought that it couldn't be RCE. His profile says "Last visited: Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:23 pm" which was after this thread was closed (3:38 pm) but well before the actual flip (6:19 pm) and the PM that night 3 started shortly after that. So he wasn't logged in since the night started and so he couldn't have PMed our mod about the nightkill of Titus. But he could have PMed Micc about his night choice before the official start of the night. The choice (Titus) was nothing to really think about as NKing the only confirmed townie left is quite obvious.

Holy fuck, please stop.

This is not how you play mafia.

There is 1000 multiple choices of what could have happened during the game, let's not play the game like that because 1st: It's just bad. 2nd: 98% it's not correct. (Flashback to a game where I was scum and offline through all the night and still made a choice).

Some people also toggle on invisible. It's just many factors; and not a reliable tool of measure; it's also shitty and OGI at times which goes against the rules.

This is coming from the same person who kept making up this possibility where Mafia no killed.

I am not suprised, you would make this analyze.

I want to punish ALwaysNever for pushing a vote, which scum usually does push vote to get the game over with or is it Kennyk again pushing wild narratives. I mean you have said you wanted to push RC but haven't voted for them because you are probably waiting for me to vote so you could just hammer.

If you look back a few posts you could see I voted for no elim, too, because it is the best strategy we have. I unvoted so scum couldn't hammer the no elim and end the discussion early.

And I also said that i would vote RCE if I had to vote someone. But I don't ned to vote someone so I don't vote him. This is because a) there is a superior strategy (no elim today) and b) it could also be you waiting for me to vote RCE and you just hammering.

are you just mirroring what Gpa had to say?

I shortened above quote to the two things directed at me.

To the RCE-vote-thing: Of course I wouldn't want you to vote me. But I have an absolutely brilliant strategy to make you unvote me in that case: I ignore your vote. (this was not meant to be taken serious)

To the mirroring-thing: Yes, i mirrored him on purpose, because it is true in both directions. If either one of us is scum a vote on RCE would have meant a hammer and with that an easy win for scum.

[kennyk]

okay, risking the chance that Gpa would label this post as me deflecting on that "me pushing to lim someone today" narrative, should we start talking about possible f3 situation? for me personally;

if Gpa is dead tonight, then it's RCE-Kenny-me left, and both Kenny and me are leaning RCE (might change cause I think a shrew)
if RCE is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-Kenny-me, and Gpa is gutreading kenny. At this point I would also believe in Gpa and vote kenny tbh
if Kenny is dead tonight, then it's Gpa-RCE-me, and I'm going to vote RCE then
if I'm dead tonight, it's Kenny-RCE-Gpa, and both of you have decided to vote Kenny (I think? cmiiw)

And this gives scum the script for who is best to kill tonight:
If it is Grandpa: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.
If it is RCE: kill Always and I am elimed.
If it is me: kill Grandpa and RCE is elimed.
If it is Always: kill whoever you like, either RCE or I am likely to be elimed.

But as everyone knows this now, are we all going to stick to the predicted votes?

[kennyk]

I will be on

V/LA from 08 October until 10 October

.

[kennyk]

if kenny is nightkilled then town probably just loses the game.

why would town lose? sorry if I've been asking questions that might have obvious answers but I'm not exactly the experienced player here so I wanna ask for future considerations and building up the right mindset in future games

I am back again.

I guess what RCE implies is, that if I die tonight, the only one everyone else thinks is scum is dead so town has no real lean on who is scum. So town is more likely to loose.

But I can almost asure you that I won't die tonight. If one tries to see this from a neutral position, there are two possibilities: I am scum or I am town. If I am scum, I will for sure live through the night (unless I nightkill myself ). If I am town there is no way anyone of you is nightkilling me tonight. Why should you? I am the main target, so I am the one to be eliminated tomorrow anyway.

So the way this game ends is: no elim today, anyone but me is nightkilled, I am elimed tomorrow, gg mafia.

[kennyk]

To the mirroring-thing: Yes, i mirrored him on purpose, because it is true in both directions. If either one of us is scum a vote on RCE would have meant a hammer and with that an easy win for scum.

not really this is is more true in my case because always never had voted someone

No, it is not more true. And with that I don't mean my subjective view on this. From a neutral point of view it is just as likely that you were waiting for me to vote on RCE, too, to hammer as it is that I was waiting for you.

Yes, I suggested, that I would vote RCE if I had to vote someone. Which in consequence could mean I wanted to hint you in the direction of voting him, too. But you had made a point that you were following the "no-elim tactic" (which I strongly prefer, too). On the other hand you might just have pretended to follow that tactic and wanted to push me in voting RCE to do the hammer.

[kennyk]

So I realize that EVERYONE has horrible interaction with uhuh especially day 1 in the sense that NO ONE interacted with them....like at all.

That said I'm confident in a Kennyk vote. I'll explain in better detail if this ends with towns win. If grandpa wins as scum here then I'll wear that egg.

VOTE: kennyk

So if grandpa is scum, there is nothing I can do to prevent his win, as he can just vote me and it is game over.
And as I said earlier, I am leaning more on RCE than on grandpa. So I let my vote follow my guts:

VOTE: RCEnigma

[kennyk]

grandpa, please get this game over. If you are scum, you can choose whoever you want. If you are town, you may do the same, but I would prefer you vote RCE (obviously). But don't let this game get into another night.

[kennyk]

Congrats to scum. Grandpa you really had me with your mechanical play suggestion. I am not sure why you didn't opt for the easier solution that would have been waggoning me.