Newbie 2078 - Game Over


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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Thu Sep 02, 2021 11:06 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

VOTE: Dew
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Post Post #42 (isolation #1) » Sat Sep 04, 2021 9:04 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 39, Dorsey wrote:I would say never knowingly aligned. Are you calling Dew scum?


I would say never knowingly aligned. Are you calling Dew scum?
Knowingly? What's the implication?
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Post Post #59 (isolation #2) » Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:15 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 42, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 39, Dorsey wrote:I would say never knowingly aligned. Are you calling Dew scum?


I would say never knowingly aligned. Are you calling Dew scum?
Knowingly? What's the implication?
No reply to this yet?
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Post Post #60 (isolation #3) » Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:16 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 51, Dorsey wrote:VOTE: TL The Legend :P
Not in RVS anymore, what's the scum read?
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Post Post #77 (isolation #4) » Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:32 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 63, Dorsey wrote:Do you have any special connection to Dew? Is that why you're bussing her while targeting me...? I'm just spitballing here.
Mmm. Dew was RVS but I'm keeping the vote on for now.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #5) » Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:32 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 67, TL The Legend wrote:also random gutreads:
grandpa mo is weird
dew is neutral
dorsey is probably the scummiest rn, but don't really wanna vote em yet (mostly bc i don't wanna omgus, but also because it's really early to put them at plur)
alwaysnever is pretty townie to meh, as is uhuh
titus is town.
finally, RCEnigma is neutral, but slightly town-leaning.
I am missing?
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Post Post #79 (isolation #6) » Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:34 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 68, Dorsey wrote:So we're out of RVS because you say so? You literally just got here.
Legitimate reads are been made, so I don't disagree with them. Clearly the votes aren't random anymore.
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Post Post #81 (isolation #7) » Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:49 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 61, Dorsey wrote:No, there's no response to that because I don't know what you're saying. It just looks like you're not reading. You asking my scum read on TL The Legend kind of furthers this assessment.
OK, so I have read your iso again. I still don't get what you are trying to imply. Maybe when I do a comprehensive re-read I will, something I will try to do weekly, but I have already read through the posts once. You made only seven posts before that and so whatever it is it's not obvious, and there are no quotations in your posts so it is also not obvious what you are replying to in an iso.

If it is an RVS vote then it was getting past RVS by then. Hence, my original post.
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Post Post #129 (isolation #8) » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:48 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 96, Greeting wrote:I can smell the desperation of Dorsey to get the attention off himself. I always find this suspicious in mafia games.

What I'm about to say is obvious to (I think) everyone but I want to show my train of thought. The goal of town is to remove all of the mafia. The goal of the mafia is to remove enough townies so that their number equates to that of townies. Since the numbers of mafia are far smaller than that of town, the loss of each mafia goon is, especially at the very beginning of the game, is a bigger blow to the mafia than a loss of a townie being a blow to the town team. In case of this game, from what I've gathered, we have a 2 mafia-7 townies setup. The mafia really
cannot
allow themselves to throw any of those two under the bus, especially in the earliest stage of the game.

That being said, I shall change my vote and VOTE: Dorsey.

Image
Early bussing can be quite a WIFOM strategy, rather than a (ir)rational act. The mafia only can't allow themselves to be
eliminated
, but attention and bandwagons can go either way.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #9) » Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:44 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 130, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 129, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 96, Greeting wrote:I can smell the desperation of Dorsey to get the attention off himself. I always find this suspicious in mafia games.

What I'm about to say is obvious to (I think) everyone but I want to show my train of thought. The goal of town is to remove all of the mafia. The goal of the mafia is to remove enough townies so that their number equates to that of townies. Since the numbers of mafia are far smaller than that of town, the loss of each mafia goon is, especially at the very beginning of the game, is a bigger blow to the mafia than a loss of a townie being a blow to the town team. In case of this game, from what I've gathered, we have a 2 mafia-7 townies setup. The mafia really
cannot
allow themselves to throw any of those two under the bus, especially in the earliest stage of the game.

That being said, I shall change my vote and VOTE: Dorsey.

Image
Early bussing can be quite a WIFOM strategy, rather than a (ir)rational act. The mafia only can't allow themselves to be
eliminated
, but attention and bandwagons can go either way.
i kinda disagree -- well specificlaly for a newbie setup, bussing early day 1 isn't quite optimal for mafia .

idk where u getting this at with
Not full-on bussing, no. But some hostility, maybe.

I don't think much can be read of this sort -- there is just too much variance in play, especially for a newbie game.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #10) » Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:46 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 143, Greeting wrote:I wonder what the reactions will be when I flip town, which I am. :lol:
Comes off a little strange. Why the comment so far from elimination?
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Post Post #166 (isolation #11) » Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:04 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 151, Titus wrote:
In post 147, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 143, Greeting wrote:I wonder what the reactions will be when I flip town, which I am. :lol:
Comes off a little strange. Why the comment so far from elimination?
Looks lamisty. Why are you supposing you'll flip? Do you feel scum are on your wagon?
Is this a reply to me or the original comment?

If you were in fact replying to me, I don't get it. What they wrote did stand out - why the comment about flipping town, when they're not on the edge of elimination? I mean...it's fairly obvious that one would claim to be town, nothing to really cause one to make an outright claim as such. It's just a little odd, I haven't read too much into it.
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Post Post #167 (isolation #12) » Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:05 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 161, Greeting wrote:
In post 147, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 143, Greeting wrote:I wonder what the reactions will be when I flip town, which I am. :lol:
Comes off a little strange. Why the comment so far from elimination?
Five votes are needed to vote someone out. I am at four atm.

Image
Oh sorry -- I misread the poster, for some reason. Never mind, what you wrote reads fine now.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #13) » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:06 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 176, Dew wrote:
In post 160, GrandpaMo wrote:UNVOTE: i forgot i never unvoted them/ pivoted my vote off from rvs.

lets not just quick hammer so quick yet. lets wait for a claim / reaction
Are you happy with greetings "claim"?
Wouldn't expect a claim until intent was given.
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Post Post #187 (isolation #14) » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:10 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 183, Dew wrote:
In post 77, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 63, Dorsey wrote:Do you have any special connection to Dew? Is that why you're bussing her while targeting me...? I'm just spitballing here.
Mmm. Dew was RVS but I'm keeping the vote on for now.
Still voting me for the same reason?
Yes, haven't seen enough new posts from you to form a proper read, so the vote stays for now.
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Post Post #221 (isolation #15) » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:10 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 216, Greeting wrote:Is TL at E-1 now? You’d better elaborate fast then.

Image
Huh, that wagon was fast. Some weird dynamics between you and TL.

So I'm comparing your E-1 vote against TL's.
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Post Post #222 (isolation #16) » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:11 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 219, Dorsey wrote:VOTE: UhUhWaitAndSee
mmm. and?
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Post Post #241 (isolation #17) » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:55 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 223, Dorsey wrote:That's how I feel about your ISO. All your posts are reactionary. Do you have reads on any players?
Well, yes, by the nature of post-RVS on d1 all posts are reactionary, that is where reads come from. You only really get into the game mechanics of things later days.

I don't have any particularly strong reads. IMO the exchange between TL and Greeting isn't particularly AI on day 1, but there are enough posts 'locked in' that better judgement can be made (in new light) on day 2 and onwards. Emphasis I place: I do believe Dew needs more scrutiny, mainly due to the low amount of posts so far.
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Post Post #242 (isolation #18) » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:57 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 224, Titus wrote:Be careful posting in the future Greeting. If I was the mod, I would not have edited your post unless the content was 18+. I might have spoilered obnoxious gifs. I have no idea what you meant but I guess the mod determined your error wasn't content.

My current theory is TL plus greeting. TL should claim.
Seems like a weird thing to comment on.

Clearly accidental errors can be rectified. There shouldn't be an issue.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #19) » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:19 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 243, Dorsey wrote:You think Dew deserves scrutiny but you haven't asked her any questions?
No, any discussion generates scrutiny. All I wanted was more posts to get a read on, in a broad sense.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #20) » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:58 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Second Reading: 15/09 to post
#287
.[/color][/b]

Note: This is a reminder to myself.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #21) » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:22 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Second Reading Summary 15/09 (1st)
.[/color][/b]


I think I have a better idea now that I have had a chance to reread all the posts. Below are all my reads.

Readings of noteRead
RCEnigma*Lean town
TitusNull to Lean town
Dorsey**, GrandpaMo**, AlwaysNeverNull
TL***, Greeting***, Dew****Lean Scum


*Like the lines of inquiry. I am careful not to mistake SE experience with town alignment though.
**Odd playstyles. Don't know if this is AI or not but reads off to me. Dorsey's votes are erratic and they jumps at things too quickly, often without any explanation. GrandpaMo's seems to have this thing with hammering in theories hard without enough evidence.
***One of these. Rapid E-1 votes and context read this way.
****Dew is here because the low posting is now making me suspicious.

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Post Post #317 (isolation #22) » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:18 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 292, Dorsey wrote:I've voted for two people - how am I jumping at things too quickly
A brief scroll through your ISO I count 6 vote tags (and one unvote), most with no explanation.

You say four of those are RVS but 6 votes in total is still a lot, especially when they don't come with an accompanying text.
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Post Post #372 (isolation #23) » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:35 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 319, Dorsey wrote:@UhUh - All those votes were the same person/slot.

@RCE - Honestly I'm hoping that he's scum so I look like shit for tomorrow to keep me from dying tonight. I don't see what he's done worse than the rest of this newbie playlist and I feel like he's low hanging fruit because he doesn't post. I have zero confidence in anyone on his wagon.
This just isn't true. There are at least three distinct slots you've voted for - TL, Greeting and me.
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Post Post #373 (isolation #24) » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:37 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

I also note that switching between the same people with votes is still jumping around with votes.
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Post Post #374 (isolation #25) » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:44 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 360, Dorsey wrote:I was also looking back through some newbie games and it looks like at least one SE is always scum
Clearly SEs and Newbies have the same chance (2/9) of being scum individually, at least if you believe the roles are assigned randomly (which they are). So SE or Newbie status doesn't say anything statistically.

The difference between SEs and Newbies may be how convincing they are as scum, but that's not what you commented on.
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Post Post #375 (isolation #26) » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:57 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 366, GrandpaMo wrote:each person has a probability of 11.1% chance of being chosen as scum. one se at least on the team have a 33.3% chance of being there -- i think i did the math right.
Your math doesn't look right.

6 choose 2 ways of choosing 2 scum from 6 Newbies
9 choose 2 ways of choosing 2 scum from all players

6C2/9C2 = 42% probability of scum being between newbies

58% chance of at least one scum in the 3 SEs.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #27) » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:54 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 391, AlwaysNever wrote:An interesting tidbit, about 40% of Uhuh's post (until 375) is a reply to Dorsey. 44% if you count post 59. Almost half. Curious
Yes, this is because much of their voting and posting felt off, as I noted earlier. But this might just be on the playstyle.
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Post Post #414 (isolation #28) » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:56 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 394, Titus wrote:
In post 388, AlwaysNever wrote:avoiding dorsey's question by pointing out gpa (thanks hockey that's a great nickname) is actually not being replaced. hmmm
Not a dodge. My willingness to eliminate GrandpaMo depended on them actually getting replaced.
In post 402, GrandpaMo wrote:omg can we fucking vote either tl or greeting here like holy shit.

dont vote titus. never vote titus day 1. i have a good reason for it to. believe me
In post 405, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 403, GrandpaMo wrote:omg can we fucking vote either tl or greeting here like holy shit.

dont vote titus. never vote titus day 1. i have a good reason for it to. believe me
Agreed Titus is a bad day 1 vote.

Disagree dew is a bad day 1 vote and kennyk repping in and letting the deadline run down is fairly indicative. Convince me dew can't be partnered with either greeting or TL and I'll reconsider.

Hockey doesn't want to stick on greeting (possibly survivalist) but I'm willing to cross that bridge tomorrow so I gave him the out of a few wagon and there was no bite. This is a compromise that I'm willing to go for with the likelihood of hitting scum within the first 2 days being high.
What is going on with the lack of explanation to all these reads?
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Post Post #415 (isolation #29) » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:02 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 412, Dorsey wrote:You went from one lurker to the next - why not go to UhUhWaitAndSee? And we're not elimming Titus because GrandpaMo and RCEnigma are friends with her? I don't understand.

"Believe me" is never believable, and yelling and swearing aren't convincing.

Also, how am I pocketing HockeyFan when he used the elims I proposed first and then went with neither?
VOTE: HockeyFan
Is #398 the reason for your change of mind?
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Post Post #416 (isolation #30) » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:03 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

What is going on, why does Kennyk have no posts? ...
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Post Post #429 (isolation #31) » Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:00 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 427, AlwaysNever wrote:Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts
Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.
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Post Post #478 (isolation #32) » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:12 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 431, AlwaysNever wrote:
In post 430, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 426, AlwaysNever wrote:That's.... weird. Was that nokill deliberate?
Lol you look like you fucked up in mafiachat and came to the thread to explain ur grief.

fwiw, mafia never no kills night 1

it gives them no advantage on doing so -- the only time it would be valid is only if they are setting up a later claim or future claim but still that is very high risk play low reward hence why mafia never goes for that play and rather no kill in later days.
That's a fair assumption :lol:
But yeah it is weird, I just want to point that out

Either way, we don't have anything to go on now, so it's like we're back at D1 again like RCE said lmao


Btw RCE, you said you have some eod things you want to discuss post flip, so is that still a thing or?
Weird comment, clearly we have more info than D1 re PRs.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #33) » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:15 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 436, Greeting wrote:
In post 429, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 427, AlwaysNever wrote:Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts
Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.
This must have been an act by a Jailkeeper. Good news for us, but the downside is that we get less reads. Thanks, whomever you are.

Nonetheless, TL/HockeyFan flipping town is disappointing, but their death may give us something to work on.
If you are going to say there is a JK, why didn't you just say that you received the friendly neighbor message at the time?
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Post Post #481 (isolation #34) » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:21 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 470, Dorsey wrote:Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

Greeting - I like the way you tried to soft Titus's claim.

UhUh - AlwaysNever highlighted in Post 391 that almost half of UhUhWaitAndSee's posts are responses to me - I feel this is because he's scum and therefore has been allowed to active lurk with no scrutiny. Even today, his go-to is to post a blurb about game mechanics as opposed to opinions of player slots.

RCE - Why didn't RCE start today with his 'eod postflip' stuff instead of that naked vote? Also, he's lying - I didn't vote HockeyFan over a "pocketing" attempt, I voted him because his wagon had more interaction and accountable history than kennyk's. I also voted it because he jumped over several applicable candidates for elim (my elim pool) to just vote another lurker. I also never said Hockey was town - I said I'd prefer to elim Greeting over Hockey, which was true, but the wagon wasn't on Greeting. (This is why I say just because RCE posts regularly doesn't make him town.)

Titus - Can't be scum unless Greeting is also scum. (Is it coincidence that RCE and GrandpaMo didn't want to kill her? I'm assuming people are friends IRL or something?)

Grandpa - What was the good reason you cited in Post 403 for never voting Titus Day 1?

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

Still think scum is in here [UhUhWaitAndSee/RCEnigma/Titus]. If it's not Titus, then it's still one of the other two.
?? Game mechanics are important and even more so in the current situation. I was pointing out something to address something one of AlwaysNever's posts were missing.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #35) » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:39 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #36) » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:40 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.
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Post Post #513 (isolation #37) » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:52 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 490, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 486, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.
In post 485, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.
u contradict here bud. choose a side.

you first say that I'm doing a "play"? and continue to read based on that and never secure that read until u bring meta up then continue to read me null due to conspicuous read that I haven't been engaged in the game.
Your engagement in the game didn't factor into my read of you.

It was just a comment that you didn't seem to be keeping up with the game situation (specifically re Titus/fn), and it would be better if you did.
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Post Post #514 (isolation #38) » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:54 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 491, AlwaysNever wrote:
In post 470, Dorsey wrote:Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?
I've said it before in post 138. I still think the same. Because I know that these thoughts are colored by my own biases, I took the liberty of reading your previous game (2075) and of course I see that you are the same there.

If anything, most of your play have been individualistic, or at least against the flow of the game at that point, but does that make you scum? No.... maybe? On 2075, you did the same thing, going against the flow, but you correctly read who's scum, while still keeping the same tone. It makes me uneasy, cause then what would've happened if you are scum?

This uneasiness is why I said it's getting hard to excuse your play, cause considering you as town goes against my instinct, but I have to anyway, and this conflicting feeling grows ever more as the game progress. So each time you act just slightly scummy in my eyes, I would put you in my to-vote list/scumlean, even though logically you are about as town as me at this point

Basically, when it comes to you, my reads goes like this and it makes me uneasy
Image

TL;DR I can't see you as town cause I got issues and I need to get over it
Yes, this is pretty much my read as well. I tried to explain in earlier posts but you worded it more elegantly here.
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Post Post #515 (isolation #39) » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:55 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 493, AlwaysNever wrote:
RCEnigma wrote:
In post 388, AlwaysNever wrote:a brownie point for you, keeping my one eye on you still
In post 43, AlwaysNever wrote:I'll keep one eye on you at all times
If they weren't specifically tracker softs I wouldn't necessarily press the issue. I think if the JK was on Always then it's worth outing since it would be a psuedo red check. If not then don't.

As of right now I think if Dorsey flips red always is town. Walking home right now so once I get some time I'll give more thought to that.
nah yeah it was coincidence, thank you for giving me ideas to soft Tracker next time I got one though. fwiw, wasn't jailed, otherwise I would probably not post like what Uhuh pointed out since then I would know the setup at that point

as I said on my previous post, I am half tempted to agree with your last sentence, but again that nagging logic part of me still think it's T/T in context of me/dorsey
In post 486, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.
I guess you can chalk it up to me being inexperienced? :? when there's no kill in the night my first instinct is that there's no info that we get since we only have HF flip at that moment
UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.
Is this a post to answer Dorsey??? Just wanna make sure cause you never explicitly refer to them
Yeah it was a reply to Dorsey
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Post Post #516 (isolation #40) » Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:08 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Well I have a few thoughts on Kennyk now. A bunch of catch up posts which is understandable, followed by too many far-fetched theories imo.

Thinking about the likely scenarios gets you the most 'bang for your buck'. Theories that almost never eventuate spread scumhunting efforts thin and can become highly confusing too, in terms of trying to understanding the situation.
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Post Post #517 (isolation #41) » Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:11 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 505, Titus wrote:
In post 503, kennyk wrote:I have a general question. And allthough some don't seem to like people who try to work more on the game mechanic side, it has to to with just that.

I totally see, why the JK shouldn't claim just now. The only info gained is his target for n1 which is either scum attacker or scum target. So worst case is the JK targeted another townie, we miselim that townie and our JK is NKed. So our JK should stay silent for now.

But what should he do n2? Protect Titus our only confirmed townie, try his first target again in hope that he got scum as his first target and the same scum tries to kill again or try his luck with someone else?
Protecting Titus might lead us (with very lucky NKs) to a 2-1 situation where Titus has to do the right choice between scum and JK.
Trying the same target again could lead to a no kill again. But only if our JK did hit the scum assassin. If he targeted the scum target or mafia changes the killer this leads nowhere.
Targeting someone else is a total gamble.

Any other thoughts on this?
If we don't reveal the target, the jailkeeper should be engaging in a practice known as crumbing. This is subtly putting things into their post to find later on to see who was jailed.

As a strict measure, the jailkeep should always be on me. Scum always know the alignment of their kill target. If they shoot there again they a) lose the wifom and b) a shot at finding the jk. They also expose themselves to more blocks.

If the block target was scum, scum are just going to send the other guy towards me or a jailkeep suspect.

Jailkeep outs tomorrow btw.
Probably best to leave it to the jailkeeper to decide. Uncertainty makes it harder for scum.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #42) » Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:18 pm

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Prod dodge, I don't have time to post now, will post tonight. Read list coming - No major reversing of my reads, some shifts.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #43) » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:22 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Uh...I had a post all sorted, formatting and all and I just
had to
close the tab. Saving drafts onwards now :( ... except the inbuilt option is not user friendly at all.

Ok, I only have time for a quick summary now.

Titus town, reads stay the same except for below.

Dorsey to lean scum (and this is now independent of playstyle). Apart from the push itself (which ofc fmpov increases the probability they are scum) there is a lack of real questioning and their only real push on me is for "lack of engagement". I have already addressed that, and got no reply: yet they keep on repeating the same things. It's ironic, because they like to hammer on others about neglecting to comprehensively reply, but seem to think that sometimes replying is not at all required when it comes to themselves.

My read of Greeting hasn't changed very much: there haven't been that many d2 posts of theirs. Pretty immediate fn target soft/reveal gives a little towncred, but its not likely the sort of thing they'd want to hide for long as scum. Obviously TL flip makes them more likely to be scum.

Ignoring Dew, I read Kennyk null. What I do not like: the far-fetched theories as mentioned earlier. What I do like: a clear ground in facts and pointing out Dorsey's posts about the possibilities of masons. Assuming no town fake claims (or lack of counterclaims, both of which is a terrible strategy in almost all cases), the probability of masons is not just low, but zero, unlike even some of Kennyk's questionable theories. But that's not the main point - #518 clearly indicates Dorsey is actively considering the possibility, but in #531 claims they weren't and instead pointing out something else which they would have just written directly (without the associated impossibility) if that was the case. Actually, the theory makes even less sense: why would me and RCE being masons explain what you are trying to explain?

Therefore VOTE: Dorsey
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Post Post #559 (isolation #44) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:21 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 481, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:
In post 470, Dorsey wrote:Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

Greeting - I like the way you tried to soft Titus's claim.

UhUh - AlwaysNever highlighted in Post 391 that almost half of UhUhWaitAndSee's posts are responses to me - I feel this is because he's scum and therefore has been allowed to active lurk with no scrutiny. Even today, his go-to is to post a blurb about game mechanics as opposed to opinions of player slots.

RCE - Why didn't RCE start today with his 'eod postflip' stuff instead of that naked vote? Also, he's lying - I didn't vote HockeyFan over a "pocketing" attempt, I voted him because his wagon had more interaction and accountable history than kennyk's. I also voted it because he jumped over several applicable candidates for elim (my elim pool) to just vote another lurker. I also never said Hockey was town - I said I'd prefer to elim Greeting over Hockey, which was true, but the wagon wasn't on Greeting. (This is why I say just because RCE posts regularly doesn't make him town.)

Titus - Can't be scum unless Greeting is also scum. (Is it coincidence that RCE and GrandpaMo didn't want to kill her? I'm assuming people are friends IRL or something?)

Grandpa - What was the good reason you cited in Post 403 for never voting Titus Day 1?

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

Still think scum is in here [UhUhWaitAndSee/RCEnigma/Titus]. If it's not Titus, then it's still one of the other two.
?? Game mechanics are important and even more so in the current situation. I was pointing out something to address something one of AlwaysNever's posts were missing.
In post 485, UhUhWaitAndSee wrote:I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.
In post 470, Dorsey wrote:Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

Greeting - I like the way you tried to soft Titus's claim.

UhUh - AlwaysNever highlighted in Post 391 that almost half of UhUhWaitAndSee's posts are responses to me - I feel this is because he's scum and therefore has been allowed to active lurk with no scrutiny. Even today, his go-to is to post a blurb about game mechanics as opposed to opinions of player slots.

RCE - Why didn't RCE start today with his 'eod postflip' stuff instead of that naked vote? Also, he's lying - I didn't vote HockeyFan over a "pocketing" attempt, I voted him because his wagon had more interaction and accountable history than kennyk's. I also voted it because he jumped over several applicable candidates for elim (my elim pool) to just vote another lurker. I also never said Hockey was town - I said I'd prefer to elim Greeting over Hockey, which was true, but the wagon wasn't on Greeting. (This is why I say just because RCE posts regularly doesn't make him town.)

Titus - Can't be scum unless Greeting is also scum. (Is it coincidence that RCE and GrandpaMo didn't want to kill her? I'm assuming people are friends IRL or something?)

Grandpa - What was the good reason you cited in Post 403 for never voting Titus Day 1?

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

Still think scum is in here [UhUhWaitAndSee/RCEnigma/Titus]. If it's not Titus, then it's still one of the other two.
In post 527, Dorsey wrote:So you think he's above suspicion because he's
outsmarting you
outplaying you
laying low, i.e. not engaging, aka active lurking?
In response to Dorsey's question here are the posts.

I make specific reference to your "active lurking comments".
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Post Post #560 (isolation #45) » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:25 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Came upon me that you seem to ask for a lot of reads but don't seem to discuss them. My suspicions seem to be confirmed with a quick scan of the iso.

A lot of questions, not much analysis. A good way to gain towncred without really helping town.
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Post Post #582 (isolation #46) » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:26 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

In post 562, Dorsey wrote:Pretty confident the game is solved.

How was I supposed to respond to that? What do you feel was left to be said?
Well clearly the game is not solved. I don't understand how you can come to such a conclusion. How do you think the game is solved? Why? We only have one conftown.

I wanted you to address my response to your read. Specifically, whether you believe your read is independent of my playstyle and why you regard my pattern of posts as active lurking. If you still think I am scum, then why?
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Post Post #727 (isolation #47) » Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:05 am

Post by UhUhWaitAndSee »

Thanks for the game all! Good job on the endgame Gpa :)
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