Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[imaginality]

Wisdom

, I demand a townread or I will meme Light Yagami all day phase long, don't test me-

VOTE: Wisdom To pressure you into giving a town read so I don't need to find out who or what or how heavy Light Yagami is

[imaginality]

tipsyHiraki here - gonna avoid RVS all around baby

no smiley with glasses huh? bullshit man, bullshit

If everyone avoids RVS we'd never get past RVS therefore avoiding RVS is anti-town, by the principles of Kantian universality.

Also keeping up the fiction that RVS is useful is what makes society work, like believing money and Pokemon cards have value.

VOTE: Hiraki for disrespecting Immanuel Kant and Pikachu

[imaginality]

I'm not sure how likely scum actually is to be pushing the eightball directly, but the thought that someone is specifically not the eightball based on no one pushing them seems like a slightly town thought process.

I disagree, I think it's NAI. It's indicative of a more surface level attitude rather than a wifomy mindset. I don't see why it's more likely to come from town than scum though.

If anything slightly suspicious just because expecting scum to pile on to the 8-ball wagon straight away is a bit implausible, so it seems like a weak reason to conclude Mom isn't the 8-ball. To that extent it doesn't feel like a super genuine line of reasoning. Though it is still early game so could just be that transition from RVS to sketchy-reasoning-VS.

[imaginality]

VOTE: Hiraki for disrespecting Immanuel Kant and Pikachu

Trust me, the RVS comment is the least interesting aspect of

Hiraki's

slot right now.

What did you find more interesting about Hiraki's posts at the time you wrote that?

[imaginality]

Am I likelier the 8ball than I am wagoned-scum?

Are the two worlds mutually exlusive? (Could I be scum and 8ball)?

You dont feel like scum so yes

I dont think scum go for that route so early but if you flipped scum I could consider it

We'd know if Taly were the 8-ball, as the rules clearly say the 8-ball will flip as 8-ball if eliminated. And besides, whether or not the mod announces it, it'll be obvious by whether scum get a kill that night.

All of which is to say the "if you flipped scum I could consider it" seems more likely to me to come from scum talking to town than from town. Scum talking to town know the first part of the statement ("if you flip scum" can't occur so are more likely to give a careless consequence "I could consider it", compared with town who believe it's a genuine possibility to consider.

VOTE: Wisdom

In other news, Taly's recent posts make me lean town on him, seems like genuine reasoning/questions and the miscount of the votes on him seems more likely to come from two than scum. Also #78 where he raises the possibility he's scum rather than 8-ball.

[imaginality]

I'm not really following the above but it seems like you're saying something smart but it's just not clicking for me. Can you go a little more bite-sized?

1. "if you flipped scum I could consider [that you might be 8-ball]" is something I think scum (talking to a townie who they know won't flip scum) are more likely to say than an uninformed townie would, so I voted Wisdom for it

2. Taly wouldn't be as likely to make the "am I more likely 8-ball or could I be scum" comment as scum (he'd be happy to be read as 8-ball), so I townread him for that plus recent posts in general

I think it’s saying that if we flip Taly we’ll know whether Taly is the eight ball and scumWisdom tried to fake uninformed about something townWisdom would actually know.

That's almost, but not quite, entirely unlike

tea[/] what I meant.

You're right, I don't consider Taly flipping scum a real possibility which is why I didn't run the simulation in my head and didn't realize he'd flip 8ball

Wisdom admits not considering Taly as scum. So it's up to the rest of you whether you think that's because Taly is so obvtown, or because Wisdom is scum and knows Taly is town.

[imaginality]

Aw my HHGG quote got mangled.

[imaginality]

[quote="In post 176, Taly"]Some thoughts

Imaginality

, who is most likely a partner to

Wisdom

?

Based off interactions or lack thereof, if Wisdom's scum I think the buddy is among:
Mom
Ali
the worst

[imaginality]

Tag fixed:

Some thoughts

Imaginality, who is most likely a partner to Wisdom?

Based off interactions or lack thereof, if Wisdom's scum I think the buddy is among:
Mom
Ali
the worst

[imaginality]

i think if i rolled scum with momrangal in this plist i'd encourage us to make mom the 8ball just for the 'venge'kill to counter swing
not because i think mom is bad. i just think mom is a slow burn player, and is unlikely to get a strong footing in d1 in this player list.

idrk how meaningful this is just sayin

Well now ur more suspect because u knew that information and me/tw didn’t

Well now ur more suspect because u knew that information and me/tw didn’t

Actually... unpack this for me?

The scum role PM is public, and it's me. Why would

me

knowing setup stuff be scum indicative at all? And haven't you played this setup before?

Wasn't Alisae replying to the worst, not you?
Although the point still applies, I don't see why #199 is suspicious.

[imaginality]

Ali you wanna live?
Read my points about Imaginality and vote there

Yeah, let's read your points.

Yeah I know townies get fixated on "scumslips" and push them forever, I've done it myself a couple times

I don't know, I kind of disliked his tone in pushing it, for example his appeal to people to judge whether I am inno or guilty for my statement felt a little manipulative

How is it in any way manipulative to ask others which possibility they think is more likely? Compared to the "omg X is sooooo scum, don't be losers come elim X with me nao!" over the top playstyles?

But again Imaginality is the one person I haven't played with in this playerlist so I could be disliking playstyle

Even you admit your point is questionable.

So it's up to the rest of you whether you think that's because Taly is so obvtown, or because Wisdom is scum and knows Taly is town.

Like this is suggestive, it's like he's saying "Taly is not obvtown so I don't believe Wisdom" but he's putting it more subtly so it immediately rings manipulation bells for me

How is it subtle for me to present that choice in the context of me voting you? It's obvious I think Taly isn't obvtown (I do lean town in Taly but I don't see anyone as obvtown yet).

And unless I've missed something, that's the sum total of your points against me. Whereas this push on me is a point against you, it fits the 'scum wanting to get players who are suspicious of them eliminated' motif.

Not how I'd have expected town to respond to what I said. My vote is staying on you.

[imaginality]

i think if i rolled scum with momrangal in this plist i'd encourage us to make mom the 8ball just for the 'venge'kill to counter swing
not because i think mom is bad. i just think mom is a slow burn player, and is unlikely to get a strong footing in d1 in this player list.

idrk how meaningful this is just sayin

Well now ur more suspect because u knew that information and me/tw didn’t

Well now ur more suspect because u knew that information and me/tw didn’t

Actually... unpack this for me?

The scum role PM is public, and it's me. Why would

me

knowing setup stuff be scum indicative at all? And haven't you played this setup before?

Wasn't Alisae replying to the worst, not you?
Although the point still applies, I don't see why #199 is suspicious.

i am tw !!

My #210 was @Bingle not you. I thought Ali's #200 was in response to your #199 but she clarified it was in response to Bingle's #197

[imaginality]

Imaginality also said I could be scum with Wis
that's kinda weirdchamp
I don't think Wis would just bus me at the start of the game if we were partners. Hell randing scum w/ wis would probably actually be exciting?

I don't see early day 1 votes as bussing, too easy to hop off onto other wagons by end of day. If anything it's convenient minor bit of distancing.

I don't have a scum read on you. My read on you is pretty neutral so far, you are playing different than you did in the other game I was in with you (OMB) where you replaced our as scum but I don't place much weight on meta (aka I'm too busy to meta properly (aka too lazy) so I'm keeping a watching brief.

My post where I listed you (and Mom and the worst) was in response to the "if Wisdom is scum who's the partner?" question just looking at how different slots have interacted with Wisdom.

Taking other play into account I'd say if Wisdom flips scum Mom is my main suspect. But she's not scummy enough in isolation that I'd vote her over Wisdom today.

[imaginality]

Based off interactions or lack thereof, if Wisdom's scum I think the buddy is among:
Mom
Ali
the worst

Yeah this is interesting actually
I'm assuming Mom and Ali are there because they are the people I'm scumreading other than you
the worst is there because of "lack of interactions"? And if so why is there no, say, Hiraki, in here?

Ali for the possible early distancing vote.
Mom for same plus the warning her not to buddy you.
the worst for lack of interactions
Hiraki #102 and #106 seemed like some genuine interest in trying to figure out my reason for my read on you.

[imaginality]

@Wisdom about me not talking to you directly. Earlier I was more interested in how you (and others) would respond to my points and vote if I wasn't going hard at you. Plus I think my playstyle is less direct than some, in general.

Now this post of yours though, this was interesting:

if I made a vote right now I feel like I would be coinflipping 50-50.
I need more information

Wis atm I think it's either you or him

Honestly you make me think you're just scum looking at a tvt and eating popcorn with such posts

This is a valid consideration. Especially with how Ali ramps up the aggro right afterwards. Seems like Ali could be scum feeling under pressure from your post:

Like ya you could be town right on scum
or you can be scum trying to bully me into helping you complete your objective

how is going about this in this manor going to get me to help you?

You want to READ me?
Leave me the fuck alone and do what I do best, which is trying to read the actions of the other players in the table.

If you think Imaginality is scum, go fucking vote it and push it. It would be way more productive than voting me while also trying to 1v1 the guy and if people want to vote me you can just swap back anyways if u insist on maintaining this stance that I'm scum

Wisdom, you were calling my earlier post manipulative. Ali's #262, now that's manipulative.
I buy the popcorning scum theory.

VOTE: Alisae

Ali warning you not to push her to decide between us too soon makes me think I'm the 8-ball and she's wanting to see if there's enough interest to get me eliminated over you while perfectly happy to see you go also.

[imaginality]

Ali warning you not to push her to decide between us too soon makes me think I'm the 8-ball and she's wanting to see if there's enough interest to get me eliminated over you while perfectly happy to see you go also.

That sounds farfetched, why indicate he's scumreading me more than you if you were the 8ball
Voting you is free, I literally asked him to do it or die

If Ali is scum and you're town and I'm 8-ball I reckon she'd prefer to get rid of me without putting herself at risk, but would be happy to get rid of you if that's safer. Calling you her stronger scum read but waiting to see if others vote me to give her cover for switching to me before deadline is exactly what I'd want to do as scum in that position. Switching to me just because you asked her to would look suspicious compared if others vote me first.

I'm also a logical 8-ball target given I've only recently returned to playing and likely seen as one of the weaker players in this lineup.

Gun to head that reads like town voting me but it could be scum seeing an opportunity

It feels like the latter to me
You compared his style to me, do you think I'd ever switch off my deathtunelee so easily? Onto the person they're voting?

You really think I've been deathtunneling you?
From my pov I've been finding you slightly to somewhat suspicious, enough to keep my vote on you, especially given there wasn't much else going on until the action picked up over the past day. Definitely not tunnelled.

[imaginality]

My post was asking people if they thought Taly was obvtown enough for your explanation of #96 to make sense.
That's not appealing for people to scum read you that's asking people to decide how they read you.

[imaginality]

You're right, I don't consider Taly flipping scum a real possibility which is why I didn't run the simulation in my head and didn't realize he'd flip 8ball

Wisdom admits not considering Taly as scum. So it's up to the rest of you whether you think that's because Taly is so obvtown, or because Wisdom is scum and knows Taly is town.

I pointed out you'd assumed Taly would flip town. You said, in as many words, that yep you did assume that. So what else was there to do on that front except ask the others whether they bought my theory or the you seeing Taly as obvtown theory?

[imaginality]

In post 241, Wisdom wrote:
Yeah but that's me
Does anyone have experience with imaginality and can assure me he's like me?


He fooled me when I was my alt - Cupcake Butterfly, I thought he was town but was scum who kind of pocketed me. I don't have a solid meta on him. He's a logic based player.

If it matters to your read on me, I was town, not scum.

[imaginality]

In post 229, imaginality wrote:
And unless I've missed something, that's the sum total of your points against me. Whereas this push on me is a point against you, it fits the 'scum wanting to get players who are suspicious of them eliminated' motif.


Then why is Wisdom's vote on Alisae and not you? It's less likely that you will be eliminated at this point in time, so what does scum-Wisdom have to gain from voting a more-voted player while countering you?

I see scum!Wisdom as perfectly capable of waiting to switch his vote later. Two reasons:

1. Plenty of smart players in this game who'd see Wisdom voting me as too obvious, compared with throwing out some bait and seeing if they can get town to bite.

2. Later if it ends up a 1v1 like he's been trying to make it, there'd be an additional justification of 'it's him or me'.

[imaginality]

What the fuck did I just read?

What have Bingle, Mom, the worst, Hiraki and I have done than not lean into the 1v1 between Imaginality/Wisdom?

Like, y'all pull Alisae's teeth for a vote when she's at L-1 or L-2, and then are content to eliminate them - because they won't join you guys on your quest to eliminate each other?

No.

the worst posted that he suspects Wisdom and not me.

Wisdom's attempt to make it a 1v1 started back here:

Or Imaginality if you prefer
Mom id rather give one more day

*shrug*
I told you, the only way I'm not liming you is if imaginality becomes a possibility

Since the earlier of those posts, until you turned up now, only two people aside from me, Ali and Wisdom have posted:

-the worst: sees Wisdom as scummier than me
-Hiraki: sees Alisae as scum which I'm fine with, it's an active position to take

Bingle, Mom and you, I just assumed hadn't read any of this drama yet. And hadn't previously pushed a binary me v Wisdom framework. So I was waiting to see what you'd say when you show up.

With Alisae:

Wis atm I think it's either you or him

if I made a vote right now I feel like I would be coinflipping 50-50.
I need more information

This is leaning into the 1v1 focus while still biding time to decide which way to go with it.

In the context of her having a couple of votes on her (another difference to other players), it seems like an attempt to shift the end of day framing to get people to think in terms of a me v Wisdom binary decision and away from her.

Taly, Bingle, Mom

Do you think there are two scum among {me, Alisae, Wisdom}? If yes who? If no which pair are the most likely to be TvTing?

[imaginality]

Oh also, explain where I "pull Alisae's teeth for a vote when she's at L-1 or L-2" because that's a blatant misrep.

[imaginality]

I need someone to sit me down and explain their scumread on Ali because I'm not feeling this.

Mine boils down to #265, I got scum vibes from Ali reacting so strongly to Wisdom's #262, it makes me believe Wisdom was right with the idea that Alisae was scum watching me and Wisdom TvT. That and her posts around then shifted me from thinking it more likely Wisdom is scum to thinking it more likely Ali is.

Hiraki raised some other points in post 304.

For reference:

if I made a vote right now I feel like I would be coinflipping 50-50.
I need more information

Wis atm I think it's either you or him

Honestly you make me think you're just scum looking at a tvt and eating popcorn with such posts

Like ya you could be town right on scum
or you can be scum trying to bully me into helping you complete your objective

how is going about this in this manor going to get me to help you?

You want to READ me?
Leave me the fuck alone and do what I do best, which is trying to read the actions of the other players in the table.

If you think Imaginality is scum, go fucking vote it and push it. It would be way more productive than voting me while also trying to 1v1 the guy and if people want to vote me you can just swap back anyways if u insist on maintaining this stance that I'm scum

[imaginality]

Taly, Bingle, Mom
Do you think there are two scum among {me, Alisae, Wisdom}? If yes who? If no which pair are the most likely to be TvTing?

I think there is 1 scum in that group,

Wisdom/Imaginality

S-S is far-fetched, really doubt it's

Alisae

.

I feel weird about how

Wisdom V Imaginality

heated up only accelerated

Alisae's

wagon, who was already voted by one of them. That trajectory doesn't read as sincere or logical because

Alisae

didn't actively fuel one side of the argument over the other. I get that that is what

Wisdom/Imaginality

scumread

Alisae

for, but I don't think it's unlikely that town would refrain from giving a solid stance, or not have one.

Wisdom, you were calling my earlier post manipulative. Ali's #262, now that's manipulative.
I buy the popcorning scum theory.

VOTE: Alisae

Ali warning you not to push her to decide between us too soon makes me think I'm the 8-ball and she's wanting to see if there's enough interest to get me eliminated over you while perfectly happy to see you go also.

How does this thought change with

Alisae

voting

Wisdom

?

I saw that as a reaction to her feeling pressured by the focus on her as scum.

Oh also, explain where I "pull Alisae's teeth for a vote when she's at L-1 or L-2" because that's a blatant misrep.

Oh sorry... you didn't pull

Alisae's

, you agreed with

Wisdom's

theory that

Alisae

was scum for not wanting to be pushed into voting you...

What were your expectations of both slots, assuming you considered town motivation for both of them?

By expectations do you mean how I expect they'd play as town?

I expected Alisae, if town, not to blow up at Wisdom for the 'popcorning scum' theory especially considering his vote was already on her. I don't see what prompts that sudden shift in levels of aggression in a town player in that position.

For Wisdom it's trickier because I can see his point coming from scum wanting to find a reason to swing people's focus away from him. But also motivation to do the same as town. So there's motivation for him to make the 'popcorning scum' post from both sides.

I felt around that time that he was trying to make sense of me more genuinely than before. E.g. 225 read worse to me than 253. Though I think this player list is smart enough that you can't push a bad case on someone so to me it's hard to read much into the arguments people make (me included). That's why Alisae's reaction to the popcorning scum comment struck me, it gave me a scum read on her based not just on words but emotion too.

[imaginality]

Quote fail again...
"I saw that as a reaction to her feeling pressured by the focus on her as scum." <- that was my response to the first question

[imaginality]

i've missed wisdom but like, he's scary as scum and i don't see the imaginality stuff at all

VOTE: imaginality

hiraki and bingle fascinate me

What led you to change your read on me?

it's like I'm magically reading you both the same way and it's not something I can totally qualify

Do you mean you see them as the same alignment (if so, what?)
Or that you're using the same method to read them both?

[imaginality]

Starting to second guess things and wonder if scum are outside me-Ali-Wis, and this is a TvTvT nightmare.

I do that though, over think and second guess myself. Ultimately of all the posts today I still feel the #262 popcorn reaction from Ali is the post where I went "woah that feels scummy".

If Ali isn't scum I think it's 2 of {Wisdom, Mom, Bingle}.

Hiraki and Taly both seem town to me. the worst I have less of a read but gut says town.

[imaginality]

Current hero solve

Taly/imagines

You say this, yet you're still voting for the worst? With 10 hours to deadline?

If you think I'm scum vote for me so you can be held to account when I flip town. Don't fingerpoint from the sidelines.

Or better still, vote your buddy Alisae to get some towncred for bussing.

[imaginality]

I mean, if

Imaginality

wanted to push the notion that

Wisdom

TMI'ed me as town, then comments like:

It's obvious I think Taly isn't obvtown (I do lean town in Taly but I don't see anyone as obvtown yet).

are lukewarm in sorting me, and not congruent with the strength of suspicion towards

Wisdom

. Is this true,

Imaginality

?

Sorry, missed this earlier. My point was, I saw you as

probably

town but Wisdom's thinking back then sounded like he

knew

you're town and hadn't bothered to think through the scenario where you flip scum. And I didn't think you were obvtown enough for a townie to not think through the possibility you're scum. Whereas his post wouldn't have seemed suspicious to me if you were clearly obvtown.

At the time of #229 which was before the recent drama llama fun, not much had happened to shift my view of you from that "probtown but not obvtown" notch. Although my comment in that post referred to my read on you at the time of #107 I'd have said if my read had shifted since (in either direction).

As for Wisdom, I'd now say based on the Alisae / Wisdom play, I think it's more likely I'm wrong in my Wisdom scumread than my Alisae one. Hence my vote being on Alisae.

[imaginality]

Town self-voting at x-1 is dumb in any game but in this game where there's the added chance it gives scum an NK it's twice as bad so twice as unlikely town do that.

I buy that town!Alisae would be unhappy about being about being the likely elimination, but I don't buy that town!Alisae would self-vote in this setup.

Also I don't like Ali town reading Mom just because Mom is against eliminating Ali.

It's 12:25am here, 4 hours to deadline. I think I can be around another rhour or so but probably not right up to deadline.

I'll vote Wisdom (or Mom, no one else though) if the choice is that or No-lim, but I still believe Ali is our best chance of getting a scumflip.

[imaginality]

[
I disagree with the point that both of you make here in regard to

Alisae

being more likely scum for the self-vote.

Since an elimination was not reached in time, we can never have a solid idea of who was the D1 8ball, nor have clarity of

Alisae's

slot. It was highly likely that

Alisae

would be eliminated, so for

Alisae

to only go after another wagon at the opportunity to eliminate a scumread, I don't think self-voting is a negative.

I'm bit sure what your final sentence here means. Can you clarify?

[imaginality]

okay but in what situation does someone - town or scum - say "i did not vote for fast night"? honesty points?

i think that was my point overall. seems like a question where you can now choose the correct answers more than anything??

Agreed that this seemed like a pointless exercise. I voted quick night too, but don't see it as alignment indicative.

Imaginality somehow thinks I’m more important and a better person to kill than Wisdom dunno what to say there

I didn't like this post, or 434, considering I was the main person to push Wisdom D1 and only shifted to Alisae due to her dramatic reaction to Wisdom pressuring her to vote. But Alisae's gone and House is here now and I like House's posts so far.

P-edit: The main new point against that slot is what the worst just ninjaed me on, that Alisae would likely have been hammered if town. But it's possible both scum were on the wagon, or that they were being cautious - a 1v1 trade in a blatant quick hammer scenario seems bad for scum.

So maybe I was right to think Wisdom's push on Alisae late D1 was just to deflect away from the wagon on him.

VOTE: Wisdom[/b]

[imaginality]

Sorry sorry sorry tags...

VOTE: Wisdom

[imaginality]

Hm. Perhaps I’m the only person in the thread not irrationally terrified by Wisdom.

Odd thing to say when literally half the people in this thread are voting Wisdom right now and you're not?

[imaginality]

I'll do some rereading of the Bingle case today as I've just skimmed last couple of pages. One question I have for others who know him is, is he someone who'd hold back from hammering Alisae yesterday or Wisdom today? In both cases I think they were X-1 for a while and they can't both be his buddies.

[imaginality]

I'll do some rereading of the Bingle case today as I've just skimmed last couple of pages. One question I have for others who know him is, is he someone who'd hold back from hammering Alisae yesterday or Wisdom today? In both cases I think they were X-1 for a while and they can't both be his buddies.

I'm familiar with

Bingle

but I don't think I've seen his scumgame yet.

Also

Imaginality

, I really want to pick your brain on how you went from

Wisdom

is the best elimination EoD1 to

Alisae

over one post. Like, do you remember your internal monologue when you wrote 265?

As of my post #255 I didn't really have a read on Ali either way. Not much content.

I was online when Wisdom posted #256 and had a "hey, that's plausible" gut reaction to his theory that Ali was happy sitting watching me and him duke it out. So that post made my ears prick up.

And then Ali's #262 seemed just so over the top a reaction (especially in contrast to her other posts prior), it felt like scum on the defensive, angry about coming under the spotlight. So I voted her.

Also on a side note, pre #262 I'd considered Ali as a possible partner for Wisdom but #262 seemed a non-faked emotional reaction so after that I didn't (and don't) think it's likely they're paired.

House's posts have reassured me somewhat about the Ali-House spot since he replaced in, as he seems to be trying to get a genuine read on people. So that's why my vote is back on Wisdom right now rather than still on Alisae.

[imaginality]

I'd summarise how Mom got by without much attention as:
Early D1: town generally kinda passive
Late D1: everyone's eyes on the Ali/me/Wisdom drama
D2: puppies


Does anyone want to talk about how Bingle asked Wisdom a question, then hammered before getting an answer? That seemed (especially in hindsight with the 8-ball flip) scummy to me.

From:

But I also wonder why Bingle feels compelled to defend Wisdom.

Because the push was weak, came exclusively at EoD and I wanted to know why it was happening? I don’t see why me being familiar with Wis has anything to do with that.

For the record, we’ve played semi regularly together for 8 or so years, but I wouldn’t consider us close by any means.

To:

Eh. Fuckit. Maybe literally anyone will give my case the time of day tomorrow.

VOTE: Wisdom

[imaginality]

Also wasn’t alone in being evaded by duck, but I think taly was townreading him later (at the very least he wasn’t really listening to my case) so I don’t think Taly kill points to duck specifically.

I don't think Taly was town reading the worst? Last time Taly expressed a view of the worst was #562 where he was 'weary' (wary I assume) of them. After that Taly was more focused just on Wisdom but I don't see any sign that his read on the worst had shifted.

[imaginality]

Does anyone want to talk about how Bingle asked Wisdom a question, then hammered before getting an answer?

Frustration. It’s not like that was the first time I’d asked why people were townreading duck, and as far as I can tell the answer has been pretty much “Deal with it” with absolutely no consideration of my arguments.

So you still had a weak town read on Wisdom at the time you hammered him out of general frustration?

Also, you didn't answer my direct question about your read of Wisdom. I want to hear.

Didn’t I? It hasn’t changed recently. He’s a weak townlean and I think he had significant D1 eightball equity.

[imaginality]

@Morning Tweet:

I need more from imagine though. His progression on Ali/Wisdom felt particularly genuine to me as I've noted but I feel I need a little more to be comfortable, since I think Wisdom is a fine enough 8-ball for them and they can be partnered with mostly whoever.

I do think their strategy of gunning for Wisdom out the gate,

abandoning it (for no reason that I can see)

, 8-balling Wisdom, then

returning

is a little bonkers.

Maybe it's because Ali was the 8-ball D1 and imagine's on a mission to be opportunistic.

But Ali didn't need the help D1. It was just a pointless move..

This seems deliberately obtuse. My reason was explained at the time in #265, and various points thereafter.
What do you mean by 'returning'? Wouldn't that be me voting House today (i.e. returning to the Alisae case)?
Because I haven't done that. I think scum sat back and laughed at a TvTvT on D1. I think House is town.
Actually of the remaining players aside from myself, I think House is the least likely to be scum.

Oh my god

Imagine has quite possibly gunned for all 3 8-balls if my interpretation is correct. Not only that, their pushes are almost exclusive to those 3 (Ali D1, Wisdom D2, Bingle D3)

Granted they tunneled Wisdom early D1 and have spent 100% of their posts sussing Bingle today

but havent committed there yet

It's X-lo if we mis-lim the 8-ball today. And I think because of the hammer, it's pretty likely Bingle is 8-ball, regardless of alignment. So in case I'm wrong in my suspicion, I don't want to slap a vote on just yet.

As for the 8-balls, I kind of doubt your theory just because I think the Alisae wagon was too easy and tempting to push over D1 if she was 8-ball. I don't think scum would have resisted unless both on the wagon. At one point, aside from Wisdom, the wagon was: {the worst, Hiraki(you), me}. Later it was {Hiraki(you), me, Bingle}. So if both scum were on the wagon at both those points, that means you and I are the scumteam and we both know that's not true.

So I don't think Alisae was the D1 8-ball.

Also, if your theory is correct, it's worth noting your slot also gunned for two of those 8-balls (Alisae D1, Wisdom D2). And as for today it's not like I'm trying to sneak an 8-ball on town. I openly admit Bingle is probably 8-ball, I just also think he's probably scum.

And I'm not voting Bingle because I'm trying to follow through my thoughts of 'if scum!Bingle, who's the partner?' and 'if town!Bingle, who's the scumteam?' because if a player is in both of those they might be the better elimination today.

Rereading 265 by imagine I actually don't like it anymore now

it seems sloppy

Shit idk.

It still doesn't seem like it was

necessary

The follow-up seems somewhat believable. I was a bit surprised imagine didn't perceive himself as tunneling, but after rereading, i think i might have misinterpreted the speed of the game or something, it doesn't seem like imagine focused *that* hard on Wisdom. Wisdom finds that bad, thinking imagine was trying to get people to vote him without being sure, I'm less sure of that interpretation.

This is hard, I'm scrutinizing a very small selection which I'm never good at doing

Can you define 'sloppy'?
Necessary from a town!me viewpoint or a scum!me viewpoint?
Re. tunneling: the game was definitely slow D1 and there was a bit of in-jokes and chat. I didn't find much else to dig into which is why I didn't see myself as tunneled on Wisdom. Albeit, I do accept I could have tried to pressure less active posters to post more.

[imaginality]

@the worst:

i'd contest that bingle is like, very clearly driving an agenda-driven lim. i had a busy week and spent my time finding scum, rather than answering questions which didn't interest me much. not sorry.

Can you explain why you think Bingle's push on you is agenda-driven?

just like, going to state the obvious, it's extremely likely both scum are on the main wagon.

Convenient view for you to hold, as you were off the end of day wagon...

Do you think it's also very likely both scum were on the wagon when you were on it?
- If so, that implies you believe House and I are the scum team, is that your view?
- If not, that implies you believe at least one of {Morning Tweet, Bingle} is scum, is that your view?

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

Imagine was also the cw that never was to Ali D1. I sheeped wis’s case there mostly to see if wis was serious about the read, but it not taking off because scum were pushing us towards Ali makes a certain kind of sense.

given there *was* a late cw

i'm not sure i don't agree that scum didn't need to get involved

to finish off the lim

I'm not sure I don't think I know not what this is trying to say.

Am I right that you mean the late counter-wagon on me meant scum needed to add pressure to the Alisae wagon to try to get that one across the line? (If so that would point to Bingle-scum as he was the late joiner on that wagon.)

i might need to rethink imaginality. don't really think ali was like, playing eir scumgame in a vacuum, but i'm surprised their lim didn't go thru d1. that's something i want to check out,.

Quoting this to remind myself of it later.

[imaginality]

@Bingle:

I thought wis was more likely town than scum, but not strongly.

I had decided he wasn’t likely an 8-ball with the vehemence literally everyone was saying he wasn’t 8-ball with

, but I didn’t see the thread mood changing to a place where anyone would engage about duck without a flip.

Why would that convince you? I mean, scum would lie to you. You don't seem like someone who gets swayed by other people's views compared to your own.

Didn't you yourself in your past game of this (the one someone linked to when they said you're against no-lims) argue town should vote without caring whether someone might be 8-ball or not? Have your views changed since then?

i'd contest that bingle is like, very clearly driving an agenda-driven lim. i had a busy week and spent my time finding scum, rather than answering questions which didn't interest me much. not sorry.

Dafuq is this sequence?

Mt: duck avoided Bingle to fluff.
Bingle: duck avoided Taly too, so it wasn’t about his scumread on me.
Duck: I avoided Bingle because he’s scum!
Also duck: I avoided Bingle because I’d caught scum!

What even is this bullshit?

Do you believe what you're saying here (there's at least one obvious reasonable interpretation of the worst's comment), or are you just looking for excuses to attack the worst?

[imaginality]

@Something_Smart:

I'd like to not share my reads this game if possible. Sadly I replaced into a low-content slot so it may not be. But then again people usually don't read me off of my reads so maybe it wouldn't help to share them.

When you replaced in to the other game I played with you (Owner's Market Blitz) you didn't have any reticence about sharing your reads. for example Why the different approach to this game?

So in a way it wraps back around to seeming uninformed because if i were informed Wisdom were the 8-ball I damn sure wouldn't ask Wisdom a question then just go fuck it and kill him

Bingle seems like the type to make that kind of calculated decision as scum.

I agree with this. In fact I think any of the players in this game are quite capable of making unexpected plays.

If Bingle is scum and is 8-ball today then hammering was either a way for scum to eliminate two town, or a way for scum to eliminate three town for one scum. If he gave himself 50-50 odds of not getting eliminated today then I'm pretty sure that's a positive play for scum?

Of course, similar thoughts apply to others on the wagon, but my point here is that it is far from a 'too obvious to be smart' play for scum.

[imaginality]

This

It's X-lo if we mis-lim the 8-ball today. And I think because of the hammer, it's pretty likely Bingle is 8-ball, regardless of alignment. So in case I'm wrong in my suspicion, I don't want to slap a vote on just yet.
[...]
And I'm not voting Bingle because I'm trying to follow through my thoughts of 'if scum!Bingle, who's the partner?' and 'if town!Bingle, who's the scumteam?' because if a player is in both of those they might be the better elimination today.

Ah, so you aren't planning on pushing Bingle today, nevermind, I interpreted your posts that way. I agree Bingle is a highly likely 8-ball.

I still feel like Ali and Mom/SS were the best 8-balls D1. I never said both scum had to be on-wagon EoD of course. But yeah, it is speculative. And you would think scum would push the wagon 100%, through in theory.

Yeah I misunderstood you on Bingle for sure. And you make a fair point that most players really did gun Ali + Wisdom. So without that Bingle component, I'm not pinged.

To clarify (even if it turns on your pings again) I am quite possibly going to push Bingle. My "I'm not voting Bingle" meant "not voting him already" (as I think the rest of the post makes clear). He's the player I see as most ljkelt to be scum, but recognising he's the likely 8-ball and we're in 8-ball-lo, I want to either raise my confidence in that from 'likely scum' to 'almost certain scum', or see if I can figure out who his buddy is.

On that note I do have a theory forming but I want to wait a little longer before going into details about that.

[imaginality]

Does it feel like both SS and worstie don't get into their reads hardly at all in order to avoid the 8-ball (at least in SS's case but worstie does it too for one reason or another i suppose), and yet, show relatively little worry for the 8-ball? Is that a reasonable observation to make?

That seems to be SS's motivation but for the worst is that true? At least I don't think they've explicitly stated that anywhere.

[imaginality]

Who did you think got killed out of curiosity?

In any case you don't gotta direct so much as obvtown so town isn't distracted

That being said, I don't think most town are scumreading you

I had no clue.
Didn't even look tbh.

Been checked out since Wisdom flipped green.

I'm done with trying to push my opinion this game. I've done enough damage.

House, please don't check out like this. I think you're likely town and I think we need your voice in the mix. Especially as everyone else is fairly active now (except maybe the worst) so it's going to significantly help to make that conversation 67% town voices and town thoughts, rather than 60%.

[imaginality]

Sooo many posts. Which is good! I'll try to be concise here... I'm going to make a follow on post in the next half hour or so, but for starters, these are some things I saw and wanted to comment on.

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

Yes.

Also it's probably not xylo.

Helping us elim scum and ideally avoid hitting the 8-ball seems like a better way to deny scum the chance to WIFOM you than not sharing your reads. One fewer scum means half the amount of sneakiness to sift through tomorrow.

i'm looking at {imaginality, ss, house} for a solve and i weakly lean away from this being ali's scumgame as well.

Me going after Ali late D1 makes me-house a pretty unlikely pairing, would you agree? In which case, Something_Smart appears in both your possible pairings so I'm curious why you're voting me over him?

i wouldn't say "joke" is quite right. that's more in line with my d1 reads.

i realised i wasn't actually confident on bingle

a few days ago

, realised you were probably town yesterday but it felt more intuitive to commit to the bit until i could actually post a bit, and see how things shook out. did the ISOs properly earlier today.

i don't really need to engage with scum lol
VOTE: bingle

You voted Bingle, in 8-ball-lo no less, just 36 hours ago, yet you weren't actually confident on him since 'a few days ago'?

I want to throw out SS both because I think he is scum and also not the 8-ball

IN SPITE of Mom not pushing Wisdom (obviously)

If SS is both town and also 8-ball i would probably explode because who tf would give him the 8-ball other than meeeee

'Throw out' = eliminate? or = present as a possibility?

I wish Wisdom were here to explain to me why worst is locktown

Why would scum be pushing Alisae out of the gate on D2?

Anything scum do at start of day can have all sorts of justifications. And the worst seems pretty free and easy with throwing his vote around.

[imaginality]

i kind of feel like imaginality is posting from a position of watching bingle and i interact as tvt and it's givin me goosebumps. look i know when i look bad and don't really deserve to be buddied and he's both-siding bingle and i in a way that i think is kind of counter-intuitive because bingle is bleeding town atm.

I have been watching you and Bingle interact this game. It's not as tvt though. I've felt like Bingle has been using you as a convenient target to tunnel a bit on (since #414 or so), while not actually really driving too hard to get you elimmed, and I've been trying to figure out whether it's SvS distancing or if he's setting you up for a mislim.

I'm still not sure, but right now I lean towards the idea you're partners. And that you started out today voting Bingle early because you expected him to get elimmed for the hammer vote and wanted some good bussing cred. And so you've since switched when you found that people (except for me) didn't leap on him as expected.

This also explains the post I quoted previously where you claimed you changed your read on Bingle a few days ago while voting him 36 hours ago; you couldn't recall when you changed your read because you never needed to read him.

---

Am I wrong about Bingle? I know others have been calling him town, and that does make me start to question myself. But my reasons are grounded more in wagon analysis than gut. I think of anyone on the Wisdom wagon he still stands out as the least genuine. So from that starting point: if I'm wrong about the worst and Bingle being the team, the other possibilities I see are Bingle and Something_Smart, or the worst and Something_Smart.

The latter pairing, though, that would imply scum have let town drive basically everything that's happened this game. And managed to stay off the 8-ball wagon completely (aside from the worst being on it then off it again).
Five town on the Wisdom wagon seems like too much luck for scum to have?

Bingle + SS seems a bit more possible. SS's posts seem a bit confusing/confused at times here, maybe talking for the sake of talking at times? And I do feel like MT has a point that the 'not giving reads but we're unlikely to hit 8-ball' combo is a bit eh. I don't think there are interactions between them that disqualify this from being a possible pairing.

But I think the worst's 'a few days' thing I caught earlier is worse than anything SS has done, which makes the worst look individually worse than SS to me. Which means for me it's Bingle + the worst as the most likely pairing.

Though I do agree SS is probably the least likely of those three to be the 8-ball.

---

If I'm like,

drastically

wrong, and Bingle isn't the scum on the Wisdom wagon, it's probably more likely Ali/House. I think that because MT has defended Bingle hard, but I think more than a scumbuddy would risk? And I think MT's posting has been generally town throughout.

House expressed willingness to hammer Bingle D2 (#695) without having to be put to the test, which is convenient in the Bingle-House scenario. But House's posts today, while they've been incredibly frustrating to read, I don't think are likely to come from scum (faking being demoralised town seems like an unnecessary risk when he was already getting townread), and as previously mentioned I've liked his posts yesterday.

Bugle can be scum only really in a world where he felt like he could get away with abandoning a stronger scumread on me to drive thru an elim on town 8ball wisdom and then during the night phase just went "hot damn I'm good, I can get away with anything, let's 8ball worstie and I'll just drill the duck into the ground tomorrow" and then he just.... Came and did that at the expense of trying to improve his optics (his solve is half baked after he pivoted to wisdom for no real reason d2) or anything at all and, like

Bingle has big energy don't get me wrong
I don't think he's channelling ENOUGH energy to be that guy in this game

Another world where Bingle going hard after you makes sense is one where you're both scum and decided some bussing cred either way will get you nicely through the rest of the game.

Friendly reminder that I kinda just vibed and lurked while Bingle pushed me so I'm hard pressed to think he thinks it looks good. If the mood is that Bungle vs. duck is the main event and that you don't really buy my read (or just can't believe I'm scum), please consider one simple truth:

- Scum are playing hard in this game, and will be gambling on winning through this 1v1.
- if you think one of bungle and I are scum, find our partner, or face that there's a decent chance of hitting the town 8-ball in us and losing.

if you think I'm scum with Bingle, I guess this probably just looks like some classic worst scumfuckery trying to sneak in a wagon on a third party 8-ball so call my bluff, I guess. whatever you do you.

This also seems like you and Bingle trying to set up a 1v1 to get whoever survives it seen as conf-town.

Granted, from town!worst's PoV, maybe Bingle is a good candidate for scum. He's also a fabulous candidate for town 8-ball. I suppose I'm not super hot on Bingle being scum as of right now. It does more or less read as Bingle screaming at a brick wall while duck reclines on the beach with a little umbrella drink in hand, totally unphased

Easier for scum to be unfazed if it's their buddy pressuring them.



---
P-edit:

god forbid I throw my vote around when the only other vote in play is levied at me. what's your point here?

My point is, I don't see how both of these can be true:

1. you call Bingle clearly scum as you vote him 36 hours ago

i don't really need to engage with scum lol
VOTE: bingle

i'd contest that bingle is like, very clearly driving an agenda-driven lim. i had a busy week and spent my time finding scum, rather than answering questions which didn't interest me much. not sorry.

2. you lack confidence in your Bingle scum read 'a few days ago'

i wouldn't say "joke" is quite right. that's more in line with my d1 reads. i realised i wasn't actually confident on bingle a few days ago, realised you were probably town yesterday but it felt more intuitive to commit to the bit until i could actually post a bit, and see how things shook out. did the ISOs properly earlier today.

[imaginality]

Funnily enough I had written a note to myself about the same idea (voting SS) to muse on before I went to sleep.

Because ironically despite Something_Smart being lower than Bingle and the worst in my individual reads, the fact he's arguably less likely to be 8-ball and can be buddies with either of them does make him possibly the best choice of the three to eliminate today. Least likely game-losing if we get it wrong. And we gain an extra mislim if we are right. Compared to if I'm right about Bingle being scum, if he's 8-ball it'll still be 8-ball-lo tomorrow. And that would be a riskier time to elim SS as he'd be more likely 8-ball then.

The cons of this idea: we didn't think Wisdom was 8-ball so maybe it's better to not try to second guess what scum have chosen.

I'm thinking about it. Breakfast first.

Probably worth noting similar thoughts should apply to people with combinations of me and Bingle or the worst in their suspects I guess, I'm probably a safer elim than either of them in terms of less likely game ending if wrong.

@Something_Smart

- how likely do

you

think it is that you're the 8-ball?

[imaginality]

Mathing it out, from my perspective:

Odds of people being scum (low-ball estimates)
70% Bingle is scum
60% tw is scum
40% SS is scum
20% House is scum
10% MT is scum
0% I'm scum

Odds of people being 8-ball if town (higher end estimates):
80% Bingle is 8-ball if town
40% tw is 8-ball if town
30% SS is 8-ball if town
20% House is 8-ball if town
10% MT is 8-ball if town
30% I'm 8-ball if town

Bingle lim: 70% we lim scum, 24% we lose
Tw lim: 60% we lim scum, 16% we lose
SS lim: 40% we lim scum, 12% we lose
House lim: 20% we lim scum, 4% we lose
MT lim: 10% we lim scum, 1% we lose
Me lim: 0% we lim scum, 30% we lose

This was useful I didn't think SS and the worst were so similar in terms of chances of us losing if we're wrong about them.

I'd encourage others to do a similar analysis from their perspectives.

For me the above leads me to think the right vote for me is:
VOTE: the worst

[imaginality]

VOTE: unvote to ensure there won't be a quick lim.

[imaginality]

I do want to note focusing on potentially arbitrary numbers rather than reads is a convenient way to absolve yourself of responsibility for picking an elim (if that makes sense)

Why is worst a better pick than SS according to your calculations, imagine?

They're quite close, I meant to note that. For me I feel like the slight extra chance of losing (4% based on my estimates) is worth the significant increased chance of hitting scum.

As for your comment about it being convenient, that might be true if they're purely mechanic driven numbers but in this case, I'm the one who came up with all those odds, it's very clear (to me at least) that I fully own responsibility for my vote. Happy to state that explicitly.

[imaginality]

@MT do you think the 'a few days' vs 36 hours inconsistency from the worst is scummy or genuine misremembering?

[imaginality]

I'm vegan but my win condition permits me to kill anyone engaged in fowl play.

[imaginality]

. I think you and ducky are town because your slots pushed Alisae out of the gate on D2, which is clearly not something scum were aiming for. (The day ended with Alisae at 4 so the natural course of day 2 would have been to just kill him. But scum clearly weren't planning for that to happen.)

This thing about pushing Alisae at the start of D2 would be more convincing if the worst hadn't switched to the Wisdom wagon later in the day.

Like I said earlier, start of day stuff really doesn't count for much.

[imaginality]

Imaginality seemed like the most likely person to pick Wisdom as the 8-ball

I wanna hear the reasoning behind this.

[imaginality]

does imagine 8-ball wisdom after targeting Wisdom D1

i mean imagine didn't end on wisdom d1 nor started with wisdom d2 so probably i guess

I went after Wisdom from the start of D2 (albeit RL kept me from getting my teeth into D2 for 24 hours).
Aside from one post asking a clarification question of Taly, my next post #524 was voting Wisdom. (Worth noting that Alisae had been replaced by that point.)

From my point of view I was suspicious of Wisdom consistently, got sidetracked by Alisae's reaction, then since she got replaced I kept up my pressure on Wisdom while watching to see what Alisae's replacement was like.

[imaginality]

@MT:

D1 I would likely just defer to my scumbuddy since I haven't played with most players on this list before. So if it were my choice alone my pick would essentially have been random but I don't think choosing purely randomly is the smartest play for scum. As scum I like wifom fun so I would have encouraged my partner to try to out-guess the town.

For D2 if I were scum and feeling defensive I would have gone with me as the 8-ball since I was coming under pressure in D1. Unless I was buddies with Alisae in which case I'd want to 8-ball her for similar reasons.

If I was feeling bolder however, I would have put the 8-ball on someone like Momrangal D2. She could easily have come under pressure D2. Choosing Wisdom D2 and continuing my push on Wisdom, I think would have seemed too risky/blatant for me to take that approach as scum.

[imaginality]

Interesting, i wasn't under the impression you were in danger D2. What made you feel that way? (I promise I'm asking for a reason)

Because I'd been in that three way of me/Ali/Wisdom D1 and I figured scum might likely look at that and see me as a good mislim candidate D2. Particularly if Ali or Wis were scum.

[imaginality]

Is this where I point out that if I were scum I'd have kept Taly around because he strongly town read me? And to have an extra player who was on the Wisdom wagon to give more cover in numbers?

[imaginality]

The worst lied about his change in read on Bingle.
I really don't buy that 'a few days ago' can mean 36 hours ago.

--
I've explained why I went after Ali for her reaction to Wisdom. And why you replacing Ali then led me to reconsider.
Up to you if you believe me about that or not.


--

I kind of agree that I'm a relatively unlikely 8-ball, but also that scum out-wifommed us on that front so I don't think we can lean too much on that either way.

I think the worst, SS and I are all similar enough chances of being 8-ball (see my earlier odds post for my estimates) that if we're eliminating from that pool today we should just go for who we think is scummiest.

[imaginality]

I mean... who else would you have killed though? All the other options seem bad and if you really wanted to keep all Wisdom wagon alive, you had to kill worst or SS which are both valid mislims

the worst, 100%

If I were in my scum mindset in this game, he seems unpredictable and smart, and I would want to control the risks of unpredictable brilliance shaking things up.

That said, I guess it's not like this discussion matters because if I were scum the NK might be driven by my buddy more than me.

[imaginality]

my intuition still tells me the 8ball is in the {bingle,tw} dichotomy on hopes that bingle would double down and we'd just murder each other in the face.

Convenient view for {Bingle, the worst} scum team to hold

I can see why Bingle is an obv 8-ball candidate if town, but I don't see why scum would assume Bingle would have enough clout today to drive the lim on you, so you seeing yourself as likely 8-ball seems more like scum guiltiness, or defence against pressure being on you, compared with objectively justified.

[imaginality]

imagine's insistence on worst/bingle being plausible rather than conceding bingle!town is almost towny. maybe

I feel like I've wasted an hour thinking about this game and got nowhere

i'd counter that he doesn't really have many places to go atm. lol. the plist is small.

that said i'm also reasonably confident it's just {imagi,ss} so i'm definitely tunnelling.

Lol it's true that there's like no one else

you figured out how to shake all ur stuff up he probably *could* do the same

Maybe he just doesnt want to bus partner SS though, it's possible.

I'd rather eliminate the worst so he can vengkill me and seal our budding plant-based friendship in cross-alignment mutual destruction.

--
At this point in the day, I'm okay with an SS elimination, if we really can't get agreement on eliminating the worst (or Bingle scum which is clearly a lost cause for today).

How I see the SS elimination scenario playing out is fairly evenly split between SS-suspecters (alliteration!) getting to say they were right, and us being in true xlo tomorrow. With a small but exciting third possibility of 'welp SS was town 8-ball and we lost'. It's all the fun of Choose Your Own Adventure books!... without any of the possibility to dog-ear the previous page and turn back to it to escape our doom...

The downside of me compromising on SS today is I think if SS flips scum today we probably just lose tomorrow (or the day after depending on if SS was 8-ball) when you say that I was bussing SS to save myself and eliminate me.

Better downside than town losing me today though.

@Bingle @the worst

are you on board with limming SS today? Pretend you can't hear what the other one is saying, like prisoners' dilemma.

If one of you says yes then the scum team might be SS and the other player, if you both say yes scum team is still you.

. If you both say no then I'm the 8-ball

[imaginality]

I think you and ducky are town because your slots pushed Alisae out of the gate on D2, which is clearly not something scum were aiming for. (The day ended with Alisae at 4 so the natural course of day 2 would have been to just kill him. But scum clearly weren't planning for that to happen.)

I still feel like this is very superficial logic:

MT and tw are town...
Because they pushed Alisae D2...
Which scum didn't plan for....
(I assume you believe this because Wisdom was 8-ball)

But scum wanting the day to end on Wisdom doesn't mean scum were planning to

start

the day pushing him. If anything that would risk being too obvious when we look back after the 8-ball flip. So MT and tw starting out on Alisae instead shouldn't be a big reason in and of itself to read them as town. Though SS here gives it as his main reason.

(I may have made this point previously. I was just rereading stuff and it stuck out as bad logic.)

[imaginality]

I forgot I'd unvoted to avoid a short day.
We've had like an extra 7 or so pages since then so
VOTE: the worst

[imaginality]

Those of you who see me and SS as a possible pairing: why didn't he join in on my Bingle push today? Makes no sense to have just one of us going after him.

If he's scum with anyone it's Bingle or with the worst.
Oh and actually if the worst decided to flip his read on Bingle during the night that would explain the 'a few days ago' contradiction and be good tactically (they can push for limming a less obvious 8-ball target).

[imaginality]

I doubt the worst is 8-ball, or ducky would be hammered by now.

Takes four to hammer... unless you're saying MT and SS are the scum team?

[imaginality]

My friend and I once got a taxi from Guildford to Woking at 2am in the morning. We dozed off in the cab and woke up near Wokingham. When we pointed out to the taxi driver we'd said to take us to Woking, he replied, "Wokingham, same as Woking, innit?"

[imaginality]

If I'm wrong with my reads, who do I trust to make the best call? MT.
So I'll go along with VOTE: Something_Smart

[imaginality]

It was quiet, too quiet. Tumbleweed tumbled weedily along the deserted main street of the small town at the border of the desert.

The street was deserted because the six townsfolk were in the square. Imaginality and Something_Smart were standing facing each other, as though about to duel. Though as neither had any bullets in their guns, the face off would have taken some time to settle.

Fortunately, the other four townsfolk happened to be in possession of an anachronistic but fully functional bazooka. It was so heavy that it needed either two men, or one man and one duck, to lift it. Morning Tweet, meanwhile, was responsible for aiming it.

She swung the weapon first at one of the two hapless gunslingers, then at the other. Her voice rumbled across the square as she growled, "Do I feel lucky?"

[imaginality]

Bingle favours imagine by a slim margin, House voted imagine over you last. (I checked because I sort of want it to be a group decision from town but i dont know if i really have the time or will to ask for help at this point)

So worstie/Bingle/House/I are all okay with an imagine elim

To be honest we're all okay with an SS elim too but imagine is probably a slight favourite

Ejhjnn imagine's Bingle/worst tinfoil is starting to seem a little strained. Maybe it's as simple as SS/imagine losing steam

This is why I'm concerned that if you lim me, when I flip town, you're just going to lim SS tomorrow and if I'm right on Bingle/the worst, they win.

If you lim SS and he flips scum, sweet. If he flips town I think we have a better choice of getting the right lim tomorrow with me around than without.

[imaginality]

Would you join House on the worst MT?
I can guarantee there's more chance of limming scum.

[imaginality]

Jeepers. When I left it was High Noon, since then it's been Rush Hour!

Oh. Well I guess I'll take that as a compliment.

Also, are you going to elim SS with me or shall I switch to worst? I'll seriously let you decide but I do feel like SS quickhammers it.

Worst isn't 8-ball though we already would have lost. Unless Bingle is scum. But whatever

Either one can die. I'm in no rush.

It'll be interesting to see what the other players have to say.

For me the VC makes me feel more confident SS isn't a town 8-ball since none of my scum reads are voting SS and SS is still alive.

The worst could potentially still be town 8-ball if Bingle is scum.

So I prefer to eliminate SS.
And gut feel, I feel like some of the SS stuff these last few pages is more noise than info. Talking to keep people talking in hopes of something shifting. Like he was expecting my mislim to go through earlier and is scrambling now the focus has shifted (somewhat) to him.

P-edit I guess the worst likely also isn't town 8-ball either.

[imaginality]

I refer the right honorable lady to my previous answer.

aka the worst

Although technically, if

I'm

misreading Bingle then he's town.

[imaginality]

Notice how u never see ss and imagi in the same room at the same time? food for thought mmmmm

Damn, he's onto us.

[imaginality]

I was online and in this game when you put the worst on X-1 - if he was 8-ball and I'm scum, I would have hammered and won the game then.

[imaginality]

[quote="In post 1397, Morning Tweet"]Have we been wrong about Bingle this whole time.....?


Finally you listen to my Bingle case like 17 hours before deadline?
I would be glad to vote Bingle off if we can get two more people to join us. But can we do that before deadline?

[imaginality]

Sorry for quote tag fails

[imaginality]

I'm just thinking about why I cannot seem to figure out SS/imagine/worst, at all. We're probably not going to instantly lose voting worst, but Bingle/imagine will win if we ever eliminate SS, which is a huge pain.

after hard townreadin bingle for a bit i'm swingin back to bingle/imagi as well
imagi still a better lim. ss is not a good lim. i may not be 8ball cleared.

This is where the worst and Bingle win when it turns out I'm 8-ball.

[imaginality]

You and SS aren't the 8-ball

Also worst/Bingle isn't the team and if they were, they'd have 8-balled inside their 1v1, surely?

Yeah that makes sense. But every time I think something makes sense this game, I remember this is a smart play list and any scum team is capable of doing counter intuitive things to outfox us.

[imaginality]

I'm just thinking about why I cannot seem to figure out SS/imagine/worst, at all. We're probably not going to instantly lose voting worst, but Bingle/imagine will win if we ever eliminate SS, which is a huge pain.

You and SS aren't the 8-ball

I don't think these two thoughts fit together. How does a Bingle-me team win by eliminating SS if SS isn't 8-ball?

I also don't see why you see me teamed as Bingle. Literally all I've done is go after him after his shitty hammer vote.

It should be obvious there is more chance he's scum with the worst. I understand my theory that they've been distancing each other might be harder to buy. But don't you think their interactions (especially D1 and D2) seem more performative than genuine?

The worst's "I don't talk to scum" start to today and then 180 based on a change in view he claimed to have had before the day started is why I think the worst is the buddy if Bingle is scum.

[imaginality]

*also why

[imaginality]

Ahh you were talking about what happens tomorrow. Got it. I thought you were talking about if we elim SS today.

[imaginality]

I suppose my question is, in a worst/Bingle world, why does worst evaluate from Bingle to you? What is the specific reason he chooses to do that makes that world more likely to you? It just seems like a smart move by ducky!scum in general to me, at best.

As per my previous post. Scum be sneaky.
I can see the worst thinking Bingle was going to go down and wanting to be in on that, and then switching when he sees Bingle wasn't jumped on. Less likely for me being preplanned 8-ball more likely opportunitistically going for another town mislim.

[imaginality]

With the worst's previous pressure on Bingle it would have looked pretty bad if scum!Bingle got elimmed today and the worst wasn't involved. That's plenty enough motivation for him to start off on Bingle and then opportunistically switch away

[imaginality]

MT I think you're over thinking things.

I also think we need to elim someone today, me, SS or the worst. Because if we no lim then the 8-ball wifom tomorrow is going to drive us all insane.

We have 10 hours left.

I am happy to vote the worst or SS.

[imaginality]

...
Also, are you going to elim SS with me or shall I switch to worst?...

Either one can die. I'm in no rush.

House are you still happy to elim either the worst or SS?

[imaginality]

VOTE: the worst

I will be around for ~6 hours but probably not around right at deadline.
By me voting the worst now, we can definitely get a lim if SS or you vote the worst.

If you and House both switch to SS within the next 6 hours I will switch my vote back to SS. I don't want to leave it on SS and risk making it impossible to get a lim though (and who knows if Bingle will be around before deadline).

[imaginality]

Omg what is all this?

I'm out with my daughter and her cousin at the moment, this is my first time checking this thread since daystart.
More substantive posts from me in a couple of hours... assuming no one quick hammers anyone before then... -eye roll-

As of right now I still think Bingle's scum and fully plan to vote him but House's early vote was super bad.

My money is still on Bingle-SS. I don't know if all this means I should consider Bingle-House too... At the outside it could be an attempt by House to make Bingle seem town when no one quick hammers?

[imaginality]

Tinfoil:

I unvoted just as MT was about to start the quick hammer.

When imaginality saw the wagon was gone, he did that ^ but would have voted if the wagon had been at 2.

MT is back in the game, after all

.

What does the bolded mean?

[imaginality]

Everyone should be aware of this but if town votes for town, it's game over due to it being Xylo even if that player isn't 8-ball

The extension of this is that the 8 ball is almost certainly on scum, but we should be playing this as a regular 5p XLO regardless.

I slightly disagree. I agree there's no reason for scum to 8-ball town. But there's reason for us to try to lim the non-8-ball scum rather than the 8-ball scum. Because that makes the difference between it being any mislim loses tomorrow and 8-ball mislim loses tomorrow. Which potentially buys us an extra lim.

[imaginality]

House I echo the thoughts that your theory was vague and very mysterious, despite how i have been reading the whole time

You never explained why imagine is town (he's not)

I'm still waiting to hear any good reason why I'm scum beyond the suspicion I got for making the obvious case (on Bingle) D3, and scum reading me for that is silly in a game where scum have shown they don't make obvious decisions (Wisdom 8-ball).

I shouldn't be surprised I'm still waiting though, since there are no good reasons why I'm scum, since I'm not.

[imaginality]

If you don't unvote I have to play as if you're scum since we lose if you're not 50% of the time so

From your pov, if House was town that would mean 2/3 his vote on Bingle is on scum. So wouldn't we only lose 1/3 of the time even if both scum were around to hammer?

If House is scum 2/3 chance his vote is on town (plus or minus wifom) but we wouldn't lose in that scenario unless a townie misvotes.

[imaginality]

I was invested in my theory = my theory was the worst & Bingle scum = since those two are scum, everyone else is town.

For those who aren't as fortunate.

If that were the reason why you were calling me town without qualification yesterday, why weren't you calling SS town for the same reason? You're making a big deal of your {Bingle, the worst} theory being wrong but you seemed happy to compromise on limming SS yesterday.

Calling me town yesterday and drama about oh noes my theory was wrong today don't seem to gel with willingness to compromise on SS.

[imaginality]

Tinfoil:

I unvoted just as MT was about to start the quick hammer.

When imaginality saw the wagon was gone, he did that ^ but would have voted if the wagon had been at 2.

MT is back in the game, after all

.

What does the bolded mean?

I had her written off as town prior to the tinfoil.

OK. I wasn't sure if you meant that or being back as in no longer rage quitting.

If I had any doubt at all about MT her posts yesterday as she weighed up who to vote and her reactions to you today really make it incredibly obvious she's town to my mind.

[imaginality]

Well to be fair, scum did 8-ball Bingle yesterday, so..

But in any case, even if you wanna ignore your voting patterns, I think you're the least town of out the remaining suspects.

I'd definitely like to review in light of the flips and what we know now, maybe ill do that later

I don't believe the voting patterns are great for anyone:

Ali(House): voted Taly then Wisdom D1, voted Wisdom all the way D2, voted MT - imaginality - the worst D3.
Bingle: voted imaginality D1 with a late switch to Alisae, voted the worst D2 with a switch to hammer Wisdom, voted the worst throughout D3
Imaginality: voted Wisdom - Hiraki(MT) - Wisdom - Alisae D1, voted Wisdom D2, voted the worst - SS - the worst D3
Momrangal(Something_Smart): voted the worst D1, voted no one D2 (probably purely due to Mom going awol), voted no one D3

SS is better than the others for not being on the worst D3. But an SS-Bingle scum team would have likely 8-balled Bingle N2 in my opinion, and if so, then once they saw that Bingle wasn't getting limmed, there was town cred motivation for SS to keep his hands clean if possible, rather than join a wagon on the worst or me that he knew would flip town.

[imaginality]

Ooh, chunky posts from MT, one sec will comment on those.

[imaginality]

post 1594
"I still kind of find imagineality independently scummy due to more or less floating around and not having.. strong conviction over who dies exactly."
Don't know if you noticed but this has been a hard game to read. I've never felt certain about any of my reads.

Re. The % post of mine, I was trying to figure out how to weigh up 8-ball odds vs scum odds. It's not the kind of post I'd do in a game with more normal mechanics. This game I felt it was useful to share. Now if I'd made that post

instead of

giving reads, sure I agree that's bad. But it was in addition to.

"Reason I bring this up is that imagineality was perfectly set up to kill Bingle and win the game yesterday had me or the worst commited to that scumread, I feel."

Seems there you're assuming Bingle is town? How does Bingle being scum affect your theory that I was trying to drive a Bingle lim?

"it surprised me imagine had [{Bingle, the worst}] as his most likely scenario."
It seemed like it had been an easy way for them to distance. In hindsight seems more like an easy way for Bingle to tunnel and set up a mislim. I still don't think some of Bingle's posts about the worst feel genuine.

" [SS] had a correct townread on TW, the only player in the game that i can remember doing so. Why exactly [SS] was so certain worstie was town, I'm not sure I'd have to review"

There is one obvious explanation...

"Seriously, if SS is town he coulda helped a little more presenting his reasoning rather than watching it go, no?"

This is a good point considering he didn't just vaguely but strongly town read the worst.

SS/Bingle/me interaction: I agree SS and I aren't partnered!

"imagine has his math showing worst is best"
If you are suspicious of my math that would point to SS being my buddy since really all the math did was weigh up voting SS vs the worst (given no one else wanted to vote Bingle, my main scum read, due to fear of 8-ball).
But earlier you argued against SS and me being partnered.

SS also shut worstie down from voting Bingle (I haven't forgotten that!). I have to give him some credit, he did dissuade the Bingle wagon by pushing that Bingle was obvious 8-ball

Giving him town cred for that assumes Bingle is town...

"I feel like imagine could vote anyone if he construed his logic as needed... Does he really have no preferences?"

My preference was Bingle but no one else wanted that.
Still my preference today.

I didn't see a lot between the worst and SS, what swayed it was what I thought was a scummy contradiction with the worst about when his read changed.

As for SS having reads that are good, as per my earlier point: easy to have good reads when you're the informed minority.


"imagine mentioned earlier this game he would use the 8-ball defensively, didn't he? I wonder about that"

Yes, when I'm scum I do like to tell town all about my thinking...
Honestly I would be very surprised if any scum team among the remaining players had not put Bingle as 8-ball. Interested to see if I'm right at game end, though more interested to see who was 8-ball D1. My new theory for D1 is scum put 8-ball on themselves to play defensively and see what wagons town decided to drive.

I played pool the other day and i couldnt get this game out of my head

sometimes i feel like this game is no good for me LOL

Mafia pool variant: one player secretly writes down 5 of the balls. Then both players play. Either player can hit any ball. Town player wins if all 5 scum balls are eliminated. Scum player wins if their balls equal or outnumber the town balls at any time.

Alternate mafia pool variant: play Killer (three players, one is 1-5, the next 6-10, the third 11-15, players can hit any ball, players win if their opponent's balls are all potted, both opponents get a ball back on the table if you foul). But keep it secret who is which set of balls.

[imaginality]

also if I replace into this position as scum I probably make myself the 8-ball and tell my partner to not bus me, and then when I inevitably flip everyone will go oh he must have been bussed.

unless my partner is in a good enough spot to just force through a mis-exe, but I'm not sure if anyone here besides maybe MT would qualify for that.

This post interests me. Considering it fits with what Bingle and SS did, aside from the elim ending up on the worst instead...

[imaginality]

You're welcome. It's not like I'm making a special effort here though? But yes discussion is good and it's nice when my online presence overlaps enough for a back and forth. Seems from a quick read you've taken my points on board or given them a fair consideration at least.

Your posts so far today seems to me very much like useful thinking and questions rather than overthinking - hopefully the choice today doesn't end up as stressful as the D2 choice did.

If you're ever in NZ I'll give you a game of mafia pool.

[imaginality]

I notice while reviewing I was having trouble thinking of more than one player as scum at the same time, in a way. You make a good point I fail to think about the partnerships a lot. That's mildly interesting

This point is especially important today I think. Because if you are able to rank {Bingle,SS}, {Bingle, me}, and {me, SS} in order of most to least likely then (if you see all of us as similar chances of being 8-ball), whoever is in both the top two of your partnerships is the best target to elim today.

Unless House is scum

[imaginality]

"imagine has his math showing worst is best"
If you are suspicious of my math that would point to SS being my buddy since really all the math did was weigh up voting SS vs the worst (given no one else wanted to vote Bingle, my main scum read, due to fear of 8-ball).
But earlier you argued against SS and me being partnered.

I was under the impression you came to the conclusion that worst was the best from that person. Perhaps I misinterpreted.

If you look at 955 (three posts before the maths post) I clearly said I saw Bingle and the worst as more likely scum than SS, but I raised the possibly that SS might be worth voting taking into account 8-ball risks. My maths post just reassured me the difference in risk between the worst and SS wasn't significant, but had I not quantified things I would have voted the worst. So the maths post didn't change anything. I suppose I could have just posted it in my notes topic but I wanted to show town where my thinking was at.

Either way, I am getting the feeling it isn't imagineality/SS, so far, yeah. Hope I don't regret saying that.

I hope you don't either, it would mean I got sent the wrong role PM.

But he can kind of just say it's his meta so I dunno what to do with that

Fair.

!!

thank u very much imagine i look forward to reviewing that when i have time

I mean yeah you don't give away what you're doing as scum necessarily but sometimes scum is truthful about how they play since it's a far more convincing lie

(lol sike im doing it right now)

My lingering questions are "Was Bingle's push on worstie during D3, while worst was active genuine?" and "Why did SS townread worstie so strongly yet do so little (emphasis on the first question)?"

Both good questions.
I still think individually Bingle looks worse than SS but like I said above, you should take interactions and possible partnerships into account also.

[imaginality]

Just posting to say I'm reading. From my pov I'm still convinced both Bingle and SS are scum and you and House are town, so I'm happy to sheep your vote if it's for one of {Bingle, SS}.

I don't know which of them is more likely 8-ball, my guess is Bingle because I think if we elim SS today Bingle would 1v1 me tomorrow and win with an 8-ball on me. Whereas I think SS would want to try to keep House in the mix as well as me so would want it to be true x-lo still so he can win with either mislim.

[imaginality]

Your conclusion (SS and I aren't partnered) is right.
But I didn't need that post to know that

[imaginality]

At the time, I felt confused as to how SS had misread my reads when the 'probability of being scum' table in 958 right after it should have made it pretty clear.

Maybe that is a point towards SS being scum because not reading closely? I think town are a touch more likely to read more closely than scum.

But that's maybe unfair in this case since 955 was ambiguous on its own and perhaps everyone else just goes "urgh, maths" and skims over 958.

[imaginality]

On the partnering point... if I were in your shoes I think I'd also see it as a sign of SS and me not being partnered.

[imaginality]

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

More food for thought. A Bingle/me team would require believing that this was all town.

But I think it makes sense with Bingle/imaginality knowing that a few townies (Alisae, Taly) were going to be pushing Wisdom and they could hop on afterward.

And I do kinda feel that Wisdom being made the 8-ball implies that the two people who voted him the day before were probably both town? Like a Bingle/imagine team could count on at least those two, and it's easy for imagine to set up a vote on him, and then go from there. But a Bingle/Alisae team would have to keep people off of Alisae and they'd have only Bingle to help with that.

Your version means both scum being on the 8-ball wagon which seems kind of risky to me (doubly so with the way Bingle joined it, triply so with them night killing someone who was on the wagon). Choosing a 8-ball they could have hopes town would push for them seems a smarter option.

[imaginality]

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

More food for thought. A Bingle/me team would require believing that this was all town.

But I think it makes sense with Bingle/imaginality knowing that a few townies (Alisae, Taly) were going to be pushing Wisdom and they could hop on afterward.

And I do kinda feel that Wisdom being made the 8-ball implies that the two people who voted him the day before were probably both town? Like a Bingle/imagine team could count on at least those two, and it's easy for imagine to set up a vote on him, and then go from there. But a Bingle/Alisae team would have to keep people off of Alisae and they'd have only Bingle to help with that.

Something I just noticed, I made a mistake in my response to this. I wasn't assuming Bingle was town. I was assuming Bingle was 8-ball. Does SS!scum try to shut down Bingle's wagon..? Imagine mentions in this post that he preferred Bingle.

For what it's worth, I think the only world where me/Bingle makes any sense is if I have zero faith in my abilities upon replacing in and 8-ball myself D3. That explains why I shield Bingle behind WIFOM and also why I don't push tw. (I'd want myself to go down first, have my flip implicate tw, and then 8-ball him to win the next day.)

I think in that world I probably don't make the sequence starting with 1250, which is pretty blatantly motivated by self-preservation.

That is definitely a simpler explanation than "We 8!ball Bingle but have no intention of actually flipping him, we just 8-ball him in the hopes it becomes obvious he was 8-ball and it outwifoms morning during Xylo"

I think this is one of those 'truth with a splash of lie' posts because the 8-ball logic seems plausible but I don't see the self preservation posts as incompatible with that. Going down too easily would seem suspicious particularly if we ended up limming Bingle before you (either that day or today).

[imaginality]

I can entertain both of your plays coming from scum. I agree imagine is more of an uptight game -- and he tends to have reads that can be agreeable to any gamestate.

So you're both laid-back scum, but imagine's more of a floaty kind that plays every side for the most part --

Disagree with this description of my play on two counts:

1. Most of D1 and D2 I was focused on Wisdom and Ali and not splashing suspicion around
2. Today I'm not keeping House as an option whereas SS is.

That leaves yesterday where I'd just seen my main suspect flip 8-ball and had realised I was also wrong on Ali/House so, you know, that 'I've been wrong twice' kind of lowered my certainty on my reads that day.*

I'd agree floaty is scummy if it was an all game behaviour but in context I don't see that you can

*for avoidance of confusion 'lowered my certainty' = 'made me less certain'

[imaginality]

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

More food for thought. A Bingle/me team would require believing that this was all town.

But I think it makes sense with Bingle/imaginality knowing that a few townies (Alisae, Taly) were going to be pushing Wisdom and they could hop on afterward.

And I do kinda feel that Wisdom being made the 8-ball implies that the two people who voted him the day before were probably both town? Like a Bingle/imagine team could count on at least those two, and it's easy for imagine to set up a vote on him, and then go from there. But a Bingle/Alisae team would have to keep people off of Alisae and they'd have only Bingle to help with that.

Oh come on do you seriously think I would give away my entire master plan like that completely unprompted

I would be shitting bricks posting that if that had

actually

been my plan and it fell through

Revealing it now costs you nothing. In fact it's useful to you since you're revealing it to justify your self defence from 1250 onwards as town as "how does that fit with this plan".

You don't seem like someone who shits bricks under pressure as scum. You were rational like this and nearly won for scum even after Gamma and Kitty had been caught in Owner's Market Blitz.

[imaginality]

(First quote there not relevant)

[imaginality]

I hate how I can't settle on a read. I feel like I throw out everything I was thinking about the game every single time I open it.

Imagine, are you still entertaining House!scum? I know you werent sure start of day

I had the usual 'what if I'm wrong about Everyone?' x-lo paranoia going into today but that died down pretty quickly. In a sentence: No way House calls me town yesterday if he is scum, plus the 'woe is me' stuff reads entirely genuine not playacting, plus he's made basically no attempt to direct your reads which I think play-acting scum would do.

I'm pretty sold on the idea Bingle!scum had the 8-ball for safety reasons yesterday. Would explain why there wasn't really much attempt to push there from anyone.

Really it's just down to, is imagine or is SS scum

I agree. In fact I'm sure enough that House is town and SS is scum trying to keep House open for a potential mislim tomorrow that I'm going to 1v1 this right now.

VOTE: Something_Smart

[imaginality]

In fact I'm sure enough that House is town and SS is scum trying to keep House open for a potential mislim tomorrow that I'm going to 1v1 this right now.

Wait, so what exactly do you think my plan is?

Expecting Bingle to go down today so preparing to win with either House or me tomorrow.
Obviously if you get me mislimmed today all the better
But I don't think you see House as a viable push today but you're doing groundwork in case there's a tomorrow.

[imaginality]

Because it would be more likely I'd reconsider him than that I'd reconsider MT.

[imaginality]

(in the scenario that you NK MT)
I suppose really bold scum could also NK me and hope to wifom MT about House. Not sure I'd go for something that risky but maybe you would.

[imaginality]

Regardless, now it's simpler, either we lim you today and then get your buddy Bingle tomorrow or we lim me and lose.

[imaginality]

I think it's less likely MT reconsiders about House than me? But obviously your views on that might differ.

[imaginality]

That is what you're trying to do. Today.

If Bingle's 8-ball I think tomorrow you were hoping to have two outs: convince House about me or convince me about House. More chance you win than if you can only play the first side of that.

[imaginality]

I didn't say it's a _good_ plan...

[imaginality]

But I could see you trying to convince me we're TvT if House was leaning to elim you over me.

[imaginality]

I can't remember the last pro-town thing Bingle did this game

anyone with half a brain would know that hammering Wisdom there would bring them under a lot of scrutiny they didn't want to be under as scum.

It's a weak defense, but I'm actually pretty well regarded for my scum game and this game is not it. I could see it maybe if I were trying to set up a deep wolf partner to go the distance, but me playing this sloppily as scum doesn't match up with any of my prospective scum partners.

I know, I know. WIFOM.

The hammer makes more sense with SS as Bingle's partner because the hammer reeks of scum being extremely eager to get the 8-ball elim, which would lead town to look on the wagon for the other scum, rather than suspecting Mom/SS who wasn't on the wagon.
In fact part of why Bingle might have been so eager is precisely

because

he could lim Wisdom without his buddy needing to be on the wagon.

[imaginality]

most of them (the exception being imagine) had also expressed willingness to shift to imagine earlier

Bingle admitting he knew voting me could have seen me elimmed D1 and had no concern about that.
I know Bingle will say that's cos he's town and I didn't seem super town D1, but coming from scum!Bingle this is further evidence he's paired with SS rather than me. This setup doesn't seem a great one for bussing buddies D1.

[imaginality]

SS earlier:

maginality seemed like the most likely person to pick Wisdom as the 8-ball, as well as being Wisdom's primary suspect.

Is your read any deeper than this?

Is your read any deeper than this?

No, other than that PoE put him at a baseline of 67% and he was highly unlikely to be the 8-ball.

SS today: -tries to dredge up whatever he can that might make me look scum-

Wouldn't a town SS have brought up that stuff yesterday? No reason to wait til today unless you're caught scum putting in more effort as you get worried you and Bingle are being cornered.

[imaginality]

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

More food for thought. A Bingle/me team would require believing that this was all town.

But I think it makes sense with Bingle/imaginality knowing that a few townies (Alisae, Taly) were going to be pushing Wisdom and they could hop on afterward.

And I do kinda feel that Wisdom being made the 8-ball implies that the two people who voted him the day before were probably both town? Like a Bingle/imagine team could count on at least those two, and it's easy for imagine to set up a vote on him, and then go from there. But a Bingle/Alisae team would have to keep people off of Alisae and they'd have only Bingle to help with that.

Your version means both scum being on the 8-ball wagon which seems kind of risky to me (doubly so with the way Bingle joined it, triply so with them night killing someone who was on the wagon). Choosing a 8-ball they could have hopes town would push for them seems a smarter option.

Wisdom was pushed by taly/ali, no?

To clarify I mean that scum were more likely to choose an 8-ball that they didn't both have to push to get over the line. Which fits with Wisdom, given I'm town. But doesn't fit if I'm scum. Because then you have both scum on the wagon. If I were scum after D1 I'd have stayed on Ali D2 rather than hop onto an 8-ball wagon. Would've hoped Mom would join it by end of day.

[imaginality]

Mom has no gameplay. Nothing to suggest being with or not being with anyone really.

Maybe if anything it's slightly surprising no one EVER tried to use her as a mislim. Like who ever brings up that slot to vote? No one. If there are two scum not named Mom, I'm sort of surprised at that. SS points this out himself after repping in, lol.

I actually don't find that so suspicious in this game with good players all round. I think it is null rather than a point for SS being scum.

[imaginality]

(Going into a few hours of work meetings so wanted to comment on all the relevant stuff first. I'll shut up awhile now.)

[imaginality]

Before I voted SS there were the following scenarios:
1. Lim me = we lose
2. Lim SS/Bingle
a. We lim the other one tomorrow = we win
b. We lim me tomorrow = we lose
c. We lim House tomorrow = we lose
3. Lim House today = we lose

I'm trying to take scenarios 2c and 3 off the table.

[imaginality]

I don't disagree, but I've consistently townread you since soon after you joined D2, snd Bingle and SS are casting doubts on you, so I don't see your observation as relevant to this game.

[imaginality]

In random news wooooo my organisation just won a major industry award for the success of a technology project my team and I've been heavily involved in.
Apologies in advance for any drunken posts later lol

[imaginality]

My reads on House (quick iso but I think I got them all) :

House is here now and I like House's posts so far.

House's posts have reassured me somewhat about the Ali-House spot since he replaced in, as he seems to be trying to get a genuine read on people. So that's why my vote is back on Wisdom right now rather than still on Alisae.

I think scum sat back and laughed at a TvTvT on D1. I think House is town.
Actually of the remaining players aside from myself, I think House is the least likely to be scum.

House, please don't check out like this. I think you're likely town and I think we need your voice in the mix.

House's posts today, while they've been incredibly frustrating to read, I don't think are likely to come from scum (faking being demoralised town seems like an unnecessary risk when he was already getting townread), and as previously mentioned I've liked his posts yesterday.

As of right now I still think Bingle's scum and fully plan to vote him but House's early vote was super bad.

My money is still on Bingle-SS. I don't know if all this means I should consider Bingle-House too... At the outside it could be an attempt by House to make Bingle seem town when no one quick hammers?

Just posting to say I'm reading. From my pov I'm still convinced both Bingle and SS are scum and you and House are town

Even in my x-lo paranoia phase at the start of today (1569) I still saw Bingle and SS as more suspicious than you.

[imaginality]

(Figured I'd save MT the effort of checking.)

[imaginality]

I may possible be the only person who makes

fewer

quote tag errors when drunk.

[imaginality]

@MT

I actually don't care if it's SS or Bingle that we lim, I think I've made my point that House is town and not to believe SS or Bingle if they try to tell you otherwise. But we definitely have to lim one of the two today.

[imaginality]

Sorry to hear that, MT.

[imaginality]

Gg. Good effort Bingle on the final day there. Well played SS for not succumbing to paranoia!

Thanks STD for running the game, it's an interesting set up, I think I like it.

That said, D1 and D2 of this game were kind of junk. Though that was good for me and Bingle.

I think the game swung on two things in particular:

1. Bingle and I were both extremely sure he would get slammed for his hammer on Wisdom 8-ball. The fact he wasn't made my push on him stand out as preplanned which MT picked up on. If we'd realised he wouldn't get quick-limmed for it we would've 8-balled SS or the worst that day and quite possibly won that day.

2. MT really turned this round singlehandedly, firstly with her calling me out D3 for going after 8-balls, but also particularly D4 when she correctly saw me and SS as anti-partnered. I could see the way things were going it was looking likely we'd elim Bingle D4 and then elim me D5, so I tried to shake it up by making it me vs SS D4 and hoping House bought it, while also trying to give room for some {House, me} suspicion if I got limmed.

I feel like I could've done a better job with my posts around that time. And maybe I should've just bussed Bingle and hoped to win with an SS 8-ball lim D5. I feel like the way MT was playing though, that seemed increasingly less likely.

That said, it almost worked! We were one post from winning when House voted SS, but Bingle didn't see that in time... So close, argh!

I'm glad I wasn't town, the way House played this game seemed not great for town's pulse rates or emotional equanimity.

Oh, funny thing with my #265 (where I switched from Wisdom to Ali), I hadn't decided whether to post that or not. I'd drafted it and was previewing it while deciding if it was a good idea or not, when the bus I was on went over a bump and I clicked submit instead of preview lol

[imaginality]

Cheers, the worst, now the small matter of my problematic wincon has been settled, hopefully I get to be the same side as you in another game and we can power to victory with our plant-based proteins

[imaginality]

Ali was the 8-ball D1.

[imaginality]

Was there a Dead Thread for this game?

[imaginality]

Sorry for causing that situation in the first place.
I didn't expect the mod to read it as a vote and was fine with that. I think town would have more reason to be aggrieved if it had been counted than we do that it wasn't.
I do agree that having that scenario explicit in the ruleset would be a good idea though.
Thanks for the Dead Thread link, that was a fun read.
On reflection I agree with Taly that we should have pushed House more earlier, could have made him a better mislim possibility by endgame. Though once suspicion came my way I was hoping me not pushing him and him defending me might bring him under suspicion after I flipped.

[imaginality]

Sorry for causing that situation in the first place.
I didn't expect the mod to read it as a vote and was fine with that. I think town would have more reason to be aggrieved if it had been counted than we do that it wasn't.
I do agree that having that scenario explicit in the ruleset would be a good idea though.
Thanks for the Dead Thread link, that was a fun read.
On reflection I agree with Taly that we should have pushed House more earlier, could have made him a better mislim possibility by endgame. Though once suspicion came my way I was hoping me not pushing him and him defending me might bring him under suspicion after I flipped.