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Post Post #1852 (isolation #0) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:24 am

Post by charlemagne »

In post 4, Wake1 wrote:He y all I'll be checking in late tonight. See you all soon.
In post 5, GrandpaMo wrote:also it's my first time posting a post from mobile also hi VOTE: Almost50 I'm sure u have missed me :'k


pedit: won't be suprised if that's scum^
In post 6, Wake1 wrote:Oh, and VOTE: Titus
In post 15, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 13, GrandpaMo wrote:also why haven't anyone said hi to me :(
Maybe they just haven't turbo tunneled you, and you them, in previous games and gradually built up an friendship yet.
In post 18, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 12, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 9, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 5, GrandpaMo wrote:pedit: won't be suprised if that's scum^
Why?
it's not srs but in serious terms it would come off as like hey I'm gonna place my vote here and coast tf out of this game till tonight. so don't give me attention till I'm back
That post was just Wake being Wake.
In post 30, Andresvmb wrote:@Koba are you Town? If you are, we can actually partner up for once.
hey all. i loosely skimmed the game thread before replacing in so i'm gonna try to start with isos of each slot and work from there. if that gets too tedious or uninformative, i'll try something else.
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Post Post #1853 (isolation #1) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:25 am

Post by charlemagne »

ugh ignore the quotes :/ sorry about that
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Post Post #1862 (isolation #2) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:59 am

Post by charlemagne »

is the only claim so far the dkkoba/norwee mason one, or did I miss something?
In post 173, Almost50 wrote:
In post 39, DkKoba wrote:Im negative utility
VOTE: kyouko
Be more specific if you please. Is it Miller? Ascetic? PGO? Hated? We need to lock you up to your claim for future reference.
This is a good post. Not sure if Koba responded; will have to see in their ISO.
In post 383, Almost50 wrote:
In post 379, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Are you scum my guy?
How can you call me scum and your guy in the same sentence?? :lol:

Also, what do you expect the answer to be? And what would you make out of it? (Because if I was scum I'd probably be telling you that I'm not, which is the same thing I'm telling you now as Town, so how can you tell the difference?)
A simple "no" would have sufficed. Slight scum update on A50.
In post 591, Almost50 wrote:OK.. in no particular order: Wake/Dwlee/Koba/Norwee/Nero are either TRs or Town leans. Kyouko & Granpa are Scum leans. Everyone else in null of some sort.
The fact that your town lean list and your conftown list a day later are quite similar is weird. Either your reads are
incredibly
good, which I don't see solid evidence for, or you've simply confbiased yourself. (It could also mean you're scum but you're solidly in my townreads pool.)
In post 1504, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1502, Titus wrote:
In post 1501, Almost50 wrote:NOBODY ELIMINATED TITUS ON D1
Why is this so big if I am a null?
There are certain players that should NOT get eliminated on D1 (short of an explicit slip). You are one. You do realize Null isn't the same as a Scum Read or even a Scum Lean. Yes? Misyeeting you has a downside far greater than having -hypoothetically- Scum!You live for a day or two.
Interesting post. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but I think that there are more worlds where town!A50 makes this post emphatically than scum!A50.
In post 1678, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1671, House wrote:Who is town?
Almost50
Andresvmb
DkKoba
Dwlee99
Hakai
NorwegianBoyEE

Are all confirmed

GrandpaMo
House
LicketyQuickety
Nero Cain
Titus

Are Town Leans to me

I also had a TR on Wake, but Gamma didn't towntell as of yet, so I dunno where to put him to be honest

Leaves me with Cookie (who replaced Kop), Mama Ru (replaced Loftwing) & Rannygazoo for a PoE for today
Sorry, I'm not buying this. (As in—I think that A50 is town based upon the rest of this ISO, but I have little to no confidence in that supposedly "conftown" list.) Unless you have more clear reasoning here for why these people are supposedly locktown, there's no good reason to update on them.
In post 1681, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1673, Gamma Emerald wrote:If A50 is saying that Kyouko’s flip conftowns Koba and Norwee I was already thinking they were town from my spectation. Idk who the other two might be.
I said "at least" four. Turns out they were more
Yeah, sorry. Saying that one scumflip conftowns six people is a pretty meaningless thing to say. It's towny, sure, but mostly because of the balls instead of the actual reasoning.
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Post Post #1863 (isolation #3) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:03 am

Post by charlemagne »

Alright I'm not ISOing koba because it'll take me too long and I should probably start getting ready to go to class at some point. I'm generally inclined to scumread Koba—taking that into account, I think they're +rand being town here. That being said, I'm incredibly uncomfortable that they have lied once and admitted it, and it makes me significantly doubt the mason claim unless there is something here I'm missing. I don't think that they're scum for it, and I'm not advocating for LAL or anything, but I think that lies are fundamentally harmful to town. Scum is already lying enough—we don't need ostensibly town members to do it too.
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Post Post #1864 (isolation #4) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:10 am

Post by charlemagne »

summary of my opinion on Grandpa—i think i agree with a lot of their takes, but I think they're +rand to be scum if that makes any sense.

In post 12, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 9, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 5, GrandpaMo wrote:pedit: won't be suprised if that's scum^
Why?
it's not srs but in serious terms it would come off as like hey I'm gonna place my vote here and coast tf out of this game till tonight. so don't give me attention till I'm back
honestly feel like this would be a different post if grandpa was town. it's hypothetically justifying an rvs fos in like the first page but then saying "it's not srs." if it's not serious you don't have to justify it
In post 676, GrandpaMo wrote:this large game is boring, i want a 1v1 to happen already lmfao

like everyone in this game have so far just pilllow pushed ppl as either an overreach or just an underreach , or scumread ppl for no reason

this probably hints at mafia is one of the people being engaged -- town is helpin scum atm.

we need to get a standarized push going >> that person then gets pressured >> that person reacts >> AI of either town or scum.
okay can you actually do things instead of telling town what you think they should do? this is a fundamentally bad post
In post 1324, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 1277, DkKoba wrote:
In post 1274, Dwlee99 wrote:Pressure isn't pressure if it doesn't actually carry a threat of dying with it. Wtf
loftwing is just scum. let's switch to him and then we can get kyouko after.
i think by reading the couple last pages -- i agree
i do not know how to feel here (like it feels like this post should be AI i just can't figure out which direction it's AI in, if that makes any sense. I want to say "scum" but I feel like that's simply confirmation biased/halo effected so I'm gonna just save this post for later when we get more info
In post 1530, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 1376, NorwegianboyEE wrote:It’s frustrating, if this game wasn’t filled with so many bad players just dicking around we would have already eliminated scum!SSB and been on our way to the second scum elimination already.
is this also serious
In post 1608, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 1606, DkKoba wrote:no. i dont need to prove shit anymore

my read is that kyouko is scum and i have a good read rate on her + im 99% clear -> ergo you should sheep the fuck out of that read.

within 24 hours i should be able to even add to that.
mf

im asking u to give post number not prove anything -- i will do all that on my own analysis i just wanna be able to scumcase ssbm and see what ur talking bout

thats all just one post number
In post 1627, GrandpaMo wrote:lol this flips town koba

im telling u pls
i genuinely feel like you haven't been adding content to the game even though your takes when you make them are sometimes good. it almost feels like you're simply picking low hanging fruit by taking positions against the majority even though you refuse to defend those positions and will probably abandon them if it becomes convenient. does that make sense?
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Post Post #1865 (isolation #5) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:12 am

Post by charlemagne »

ah i see the BP claim, comfortable locktowning dwlee unless there's another explanation for the failed NK
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Post Post #1867 (isolation #6) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:24 am

Post by charlemagne »

In post 30, Andresvmb wrote:@Koba are you Town? If you are, we can actually partner up for once.
bad opening, but i'll forgive it because of the rest of the iso
In post 281, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 267, Rannygazoo wrote:Gambler's fallacy cuts both ways. It's either "this one is lucky so I should keep betting on it" or "this one is unlucky so its time should come soon". But anyway, this feels too defensive for such a vague vote.
Given subsequent conversation, it’s blatantly obvious what I meant there. Saying that it can cut both ways is just fluff. And it’s not too defensive if it’s correct. DW said as much.
agreed

In post 549, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 405, DkKoba wrote:ah yes scum motivated entrapment where I later even don't push people to vote there.
I would argue you didn’t entrap me.

But c’mon Koba you know better. I’m not seeing the reasons for your reads of certain players at all because they’re leaving lazy votes on my slot and I’m Town. Norwegian and Titus just decided to make crappy early arguments and double down on them, but you TR that? What will happen when I flip Town then? Will you wake up or continue pushing DW or LQ aside who I would argue at this point are quite likely to be Town.

I don’t know what to do about your argument with Kyouko. Kyouko has basically SR me every time they’re Town, and either ignored or defended me as Scum. So I’m always wary when I start seeing Kyouko make assumptions about my alignment when attacking other players. But this does feel a bit different - so it’s possible they’ve just read me right.
In post 553, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 537, Hakai wrote:Even if Koba is scum most of these reads are likely genuine.
This isn’t a thing btw. Reads can’t be genuine if they’re coming from Scum. They can only be strategic if they’re coming from Scum. It’s why when LQ described their own post as strategic, it raised some eyebrows.
In post 558, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 462, Almost50 wrote:
In post 449, Wake1 wrote:Speaking of which, IF IT ISN'T EXTREMELY APPARENT, I want to know what you think if Andre's activity level currently.
I am aware of the "change" in his usual rate of posting, but I am waiting a bit longer to decide on it. It's not going "unnoticed" though, I assure you. :wink:
This is quite possibly the only post that truly hints at how A50 views any player. And it’s about me, and it’s wrong anyway. So, I still don’t get how you’ve cleared them here. Posting jokes is all good, and though the relaxed attitude is something I tend to associate with Town (Scum being nervous about getting caught or directing the Town towards their Partners), A50 has not done nearly enough to merit exclusion from a hypothetical POE. That’s my opinion.
Fair, even if I disagree.
In post 596, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 595, NorwegianboyEE wrote:What is your read on SSB Andres. Do you scumread them?
Here’s my take - the reason I haven’t defended Kyouko aggressively despite seriously questioning Koba is because if I’m wrong about Koba (and I can be - Koba is notoriously hard to read) is because Kyouko admitted that Koba has their number, and yet they’re not screaming
hard
to get Koba executed. There’s not a whole lot of outrage in or for example. Just some surprise, a rather meek admission that Koba does have Kyouko’s number, and some strategic discussion about how Koba might go about using their 100% read rate to their advantage as Scum.

I am comfortable applying the burden of proficiency standard to a select
few
players. The number is small, and since I haven’t played here enough most of those players are in the old forum I used to play in. Koba is in that list. I have a feeling Kyouko agrees that the standard should apply to Koba too. If that’s indeed the case, then why aren’t they more outraged that Koba is reading them wrong and hard dunking on them? And why are they letting me take all the heat here? I’ve been in games with players I know can easily tell when I’m Town. I know how that feels like. And when they’re hedging on my slot (and I’m acting like my usual Town self), or even worse, calling me Scum, I obviously get suspicious. I’m always skeptical even if you have me right, but with some players it becomes more obvious when they should be reading you correctly but aren’t.

At the same time, I have seen Koba get some things wrong (of course, none of us are perfect). But after screaming this loud for an execution? I think that’s maybe a bit rare. If we flip Kyouko, and they flip Scum, Koba is going to get NK’ed and well, that’ll be that. But if they’re wrong? Then what? That’s going to be hard. What I’ve done in the past in situations like this is advocated for the “1v1” to get sorted, and go from there. I don’t know that I’m the one who should be making this argument. But I think it should be considered.
This might be the most fundamentally town!indicative single post in the entire game, and while it's not enough for me to locktown Andres, it's strong evidence that they are town. It's clear, thought-through reasoning on why even though Andres believes Koba isn't necessarily town, that Kyouko is still probably scum because of their response to Koba consistently reading them correctly.
It would cost Andres basically nothing to simply defend Kyouko by saying Koba is scum.
Yet they didn't. That's pretty big.
In post 613, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 603, Hakai wrote:I've seen scum put out completely genuine reads in the hope of sounding town.
I’m sorry to keep harping on this, but no, they’re not genuine. They might be correct, but genuine implies good faith. Scum never have good faith. There’s only machinations that they hope gets them closer to victory. You can’t have true reads when you know the answer. Only solid reasons or excuses for your positioning.
This is an interesting take, and I think lines up pretty well with the fact that Andres' reads seem really, really genuine and I'm not able to find strategic fault in them.
In post 1702, Andresvmb wrote:VOTE: Mama Ru
Elaborate? Sorry, I'm a bit confused here.
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Post Post #1868 (isolation #7) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:26 am

Post by charlemagne »

In post 1866, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1863, charlemagne wrote:I'm generally inclined to scumread Koba
wut
I thought you hadn't been on site in a while? How have you played with Koba, did y'all play on EM before?
I played a game or two with Koba, IIRC, during the couple months I came back to the site before leaving again. Pretty hard scumread them and they weren't ever scum. Might be remembering incorrectly, but I'm pretty confident in that.
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Post Post #1869 (isolation #8) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:30 am

Post by charlemagne »

Alright, I'm gonna be done for right now. Will try to pick up and finish the ISOs later, but in case I can't (I'll be a bit swamped in the next couple days) here are my tentative/skimmed reads on everyone else:
Null on House
Lean town on Titus, but I'm probably unable to read them
Gamma is probably town
no idea on cookie
t3 gut pings me as scum, as does the mama ru slot
lick is leantown, norwee is probably town
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Post Post #1877 (isolation #9) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:38 am

Post by charlemagne »

In post 1875, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 1867, charlemagne wrote:This isn’t a thing btw. Reads can’t be genuine if they’re coming from Scum. They can only be strategic if they’re coming from Scum. It’s why when LQ described their own post as strategic, it raised some eyebrows.
hard disagree

I was scum before and I gave genuine reads because I have tmi.

I can say this person is scum for not contributing then someone will sheep me and say I agree this person hasn't been contributing and therefore is scummy

that person who shipped me is town
and said the same thing as I did

what's the difference?

my allignment? that still doesn't mean that my read was genuine

now what if I was doing that to my scum partner if I were scum, like I was bussing and someone sheeped me on that player being scum as well (which they were scum)
this was me quoting andres, not something i said
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Post Post #2161 (isolation #10) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:30 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2153, DkKoba wrote:the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team :)
This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be
that
many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow
one hundred and ninety times better than random.
I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.
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Post Post #2173 (isolation #11) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:41 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 1734, Mama Ru wrote:
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My neighbor Rannygazoo, who had only terse conversations with my predecessor, did not even snuggle up to me even once during this long, cold night.

My brief attempt at flirting was rejected, no one was debriefed. If you can’t love yourself, how in the hell are you gonna love somebody else! Can I get an amen?
This is a terrible, painful gimmick. I can't in good conscience call it scummy because it was probably preplanned, but it is serving as just,,, complete and utter fluff. No reasoning, no actual thought-out posting, just... rainbows.

In post 1747, Mama Ru wrote:
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ssbm_Kyouko (6): DkKoba, LicketyQuickety, Almost50, Hakai, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99,
Dwlee99 (2): Rannygazoo, Wake88,
A game's maiden wagon rarely climaxes to an elimination, is there a safer place for the squirelly ones to distance? I surmise that there is not, and that this wagon is loaded with our drab enemies.


ssbm_Kyouko (4): Almost50, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99, DkKoba,
Dwlee99 (4): Rannygazoo, Wake88, LicketyQuickety, Loftwing,
LicketyQuickety and Hakai readily allowed themselves to be distracted from this large pickle they got themselves into. LicketyQuickety even switched lines to weigh in a newly forming wagon. A wagon started by my emotionally unavailable neighbor I might add.


Dwlee99 (4): Rannygazoo, Wake88, LicketyQuickety, Loftwing,
ssbm_Kyouko (3): Almost50, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99,
Loftwing (3): Titus, DkKoba, Hakai,
Dwlee99 gains the lead as DkKoba unvotes ssbm_Kyouko to shamefully vote for my innocent predecessor. At least it was fleeting.


Dwlee99 (4): Rannygazoo, Wake88, LicketyQuickety, Loftwing,
ssbm_Kyouko (4): Almost50, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99, DkKoba,
Loftwing (3): Titus, Hakai, MargotRosa,
DkKoba returns to their campaign against ssbm_Kyouko. Are they sincere, or are they making a spectacle and turning on a team mate?


ssbm_Kyouko (5): Almost50, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99, Rannygazoo, Hakai,
NorwegianBoyEE (3): Andresvmb, LicketyQuickety, Nero Cain,
Loftwing (3): Titus, MargotRosa, DkKoba,
Ah! DkKoba once again changes their mind to vote an innocent. Meanwhile Hakai, and Rannygazoo tuck in the slack and tighten the belt around ssbm_Kyouko. I consider the possibility of distancing.


ssbm_Kyouko (6): Almost50, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99, Hakai, Andresvmb, DkKoba,
Titus (2): LicketyQuickety, cool cookie,
cool cookie (2): Titus, Rannygazoo,
Dwlee99 (2): Wake88, Loftwing,
DkKoba wigs out again and stiffs it to ssbm_Kyouko like excess hair spray. Distancing?


ssbm_Kyouko (9):Almost50, NorwegianBoyEE, Dwlee99, Hakai, Andresvmb, DkKoba, Loftwing, Nero Cain, Rannygazoo
cool cookie (2): Titus, LicketyQuickety
Nero Cain leaps out of the closet as Rannygazoo confidently hammers ssbm_Kyouko. Am I seeing distancing and big hulking busses everywhere? It may be so!
This
looks
like analysis, but it really isn't. It doesn't draw a single actual conclusion (except to say that Koba is scum bussing, which if true,,, why not just vote them?) , is highly handwavy, and kind of just says things without any analysis to back it up.
In post 2144, Mama Ru wrote:
~Silence!~

I have made my decision.


Rannygazoo, Neromagneslot, you are the bottom Queens.

It's time to:


L
i
p
s
y
n
c
!

F
o
r
!

Y
o
u
r
!

L
i
i
ï
i
î
i
i
i
ï
i
i
F
E
!



and
DON'T


F
*
c
k
.
I
t
.
U
p
!
!
!
!

I wasn't a fan of the content from the Loftwing slot when I originally skimmed through, and the posting from here has cemented my scumread on it. There has not been one iota of actual content from Ru despite them posting, and I can't see any strong evidence that this slot is town, so I'm comfortable with this: VOTE: Mama Ru. I'm not a fan of voting Ranny right now mostly because they haven't actually posted for a while and I'd like to see a prod/replacement and for them to be able to defend themselves.
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Post Post #2175 (isolation #12) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:43 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2161, charlemagne wrote:
In post 2153, DkKoba wrote:the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team :)
This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be
that
many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow
one hundred and ninety times better than random.
I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.
koba can you like. respond to this please
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Post Post #2183 (isolation #13) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:48 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2177, DkKoba wrote:hey charles, what's your ranny read and why?
i guess i missed them the first time around somehow? hammer was +rand town i think; other than that, none of their posts are strong evidence for or against them being scum. can you summarize the case against them?
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Post Post #2187 (isolation #14) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:52 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2181, DkKoba wrote:
In post 2175, charlemagne wrote:
In post 2161, charlemagne wrote:
In post 2153, DkKoba wrote:the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team :)
This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be
that
many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow
one hundred and ninety times better than random.
I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.
koba can you like. respond to this please
no lmao
alright, i've updated from koba!probtown to koba!leanscum. just an outright refusal to answer a valid criticism and handwaving "that post was scummy" is not it, at all.
my prior on koba town was previously pretty strong, but considering a combination of plausible deniability ("i had bad reads, that's no reason to lim me"), the possibility of hard bussing on d1, and this complete refusal to respond to me, i think a world where koba busses hard d1 is still in-absolute-numbers
unlikely
but not implausible.
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Post Post #2191 (isolation #15) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:55 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2186, DkKoba wrote:the hammer was not towny btw - kyouko was outted scum and a guaranteed wagon well before ranny even hammered.

like the way you are not aware of the gamestate :( i feel so bad but like im sure you would have been nice to play with if town.
okay now you're just being rude. i tried my best to catch up on 75 pages or so in a single day assuming people would be reasonable enough to help fill in the gaps. your criticism of me for being unaware of the gamestate is weird since you
just asked me for my read on ranny
.
hammers on scum are +rand town, in my personal experience.
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Post Post #2193 (isolation #16) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:56 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2188, DkKoba wrote:kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 !
In post 2190, DkKoba wrote:you're grasping so fucking hard its so cute tbh
alright, for the sake of my own sanity i'm gonna stop interacting with you for the rest of today. you're being
toxic
, koba. please stop.
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Post Post #2194 (isolation #17) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:57 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2192, House wrote:Oh yeah.

I also claim macho bloodhound.
what do bloodhounds do?
can you give me the entire claim again
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Post Post #2203 (isolation #18) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:17 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2200, Dwlee99 wrote:Not more than 50/50 but:

Spoiler:
Image
This is really interesting data. Where did you get it from, what are the sample sizes, and are there any potential biases/confounding factors that weren't controlled for? My only real concern is that it's in a mini, but this is sufficient evidence that my anecdotal hypothesis was wrong and ranny is slightly +rand scum
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Post Post #2204 (isolation #19) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:17 pm

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2202, GrandpaMo wrote:
In post 2175, charlemagne wrote:
In post 2161, charlemagne wrote:
In post 2153, DkKoba wrote:the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team :)
This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be
that
many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow
one hundred and ninety times better than random.
I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.
koba can you like. respond to this please
tell me why i thought u were like radiant at first
?
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Post Post #2208 (isolation #20) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:23 pm

Post by charlemagne »

okay cool i trust psyche's data. that's pretty convincing evidence that ranny is +rand scum. i'd be \fine\ voting them today, but would prefer mama ru, t3, and *maybe* koba. (still conflicted hard on that read; i need to go back and think about it more.
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Post Post #2270 (isolation #21) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:53 am

Post by charlemagne »

In post 2269, Mama Ru wrote:
In post 2267, Mama Ru wrote:It's a fascinating, unbroken continuation of Nero's rancorous and laconic contribution.
Not quite true in the sense that charlemagne is a grandiloquent version of Nero Cain.
Wow, that thesaurus you're using is crying out from being abused that hard.
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Post Post #2340 (isolation #22) » Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:13 pm

Post by charlemagne »

bah
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