Newbie 2081 | Game Over

[kennyk]

Hello to all and have fun.

Just before dawn betwen night 0 and day 1 I had a dream to vote the player with the longest name. So it is

VOTE: Jake The Wolfie

[kennyk]

Oh, nice. I was afraid the game would begin while I was sleeping, but it turns out I get to be the quickest draw in the west.

Hi everyone. Have some not-so-random questions:

- If you're a newbie, how many games of Mafia and mafia-likes have you played prior to this?
- Either newbie or SE, How would you rate your experience level?
- How would you describe your playstyle as as Scum, or how you would anticipate yourself playing as scum if this was your first game?
- For people who has actually played scum before, by eyeballing or actually counting, how often would you say you win as scum? What do you think are the common elements in games where you win as scum?
- What's your timezone and what's your anticipated schedule for checking in on this game?

For me:
- I've played a couple forum mafia and much more party Mafia.
- I haven't played forum mafia since forever and I was basically a toddler back then with no coherent thoughts so it doesn't count. Party mafia is certainly different because I tend to just be messing around there and causing chaos rather than actually trying to win. So, basically this is my first real game of forum mafia and I'm armed with nothing but the wiki and reading other games.
- As scum, I was certainly passive. In forum mafia I remember relying on advice from my more experienced counterpart on what positions to take as scum during the day. In future forum mafia where I get scum I'd try to be more active in "scumhunting" though, because that sounds more fun than just sitting around hoping I don't get wagoned. Plus I notice Town tends to be less mad OOCly if it was scum who ruined their ELo rather than an honest town mistake.
- I'd say I win half the games I play as scum in party mafia, usually because my teammate is a good liar or town is dumb more than anything on my part, though. In forum mafia I get eliminated pretty quick usually due to my own idiocy or really bad luck so I'd say my scum winrate out of the small sample size is zero.
- I live in UTC+7 and I'd be checking in around 8AM and 5PM at the minimum each day. Don't expect me to be awake around 10PM-6AM. I'm a busy person, but my time management is better than most, so I expect to be one of the more active players. Unfortunately it seems to me that I'm unlikely to be awake at day start and day end.

I for my part think RV and RQ are equaly good or bad to start the game. So I play along with these questions.

I have played about 20 games of mafia. But most of them were prior to 2006 (I feel old now). Two were on this site actually, but under a different name (forgot my password). Both were two digit newbie games.
With all the changes since my old days (my first newbie game here had three pages) I would say I don't have that many experience. And as I didn't have a scum game in my "new era" yet, I don't know how my playstyle as scum is. In general I would describe my playstyle a bit more on the technical/mechanical side, as I am bad at reading people.
Right now I am in UTC+2 but that will soon change to UTC+1. I am more likely to post in my afternoons and evenings.

[kennyk]

Have some half-serious hot take reads before I get ready for bed.

Jake The Wolfie: This is a long shot... but I think this slot leans either scum or power role because Jake is an SE so it doesn't make sense for Jake to just not be around and checking PM, especially with how active the person's post history seems to be. My theory is that Jake's just not enthusiastic about getting a role with responsibilities. Or Jake's just busy IRL. But even if Jake is busy and is in the process of getting a replacement then I feel like that suggests Jake's role is something more involved than previously predicted by that person. Also, referring to people without using pronouns is hard.
Binatog13: Lean very, very, very slightly town based on my gut instinct.
Not_Mafia: Lean very, very, very slightly town because he has posted early. From what I've seen of NM's post history he loves to shitpost and mess around, so his early behavior here isn't abnormal. If he was scum, I feel his playstyle would be pretty bad for him though, so I'm keeping an eye on him to see if he makes any slips. Also, seems to be a bit overeager to teach as SE which makes me feel like he's genuinely pro-town.
MegAzumarill: Lean slightly scum based on my gut instinct.
DaTacoX: Hasn't posted yet.
Greeting: Hasn't posted yet.
catboi: Hasn't posted yet.

Why am I left out?

I don't think your read on JTW is a good one.

[kennyk]

Greetings!

Prepare to be spammed with popculture gifs!

VOTE: kennyk

That's not a random vote. It is a revenge from a different game. Maybe I should switch my vote to you. Probability says I have to catch scum if I vote you every game

Btw. this is the real spam popculture:

[kennyk]

I missed this.

Not_Mafia was literally put on E-1 for a while. They're still at E-2. This bandwagon built up way too fast, I don't like this.

I can very much agree with you on this. Too bad no one quickhammered though.

[kennyk]

Btw. yesterday I had one of those days where you ask yourself why you even bothered to leave your bed. Real life sucks sometimes. I hopefully will be more active in the future.

[kennyk]

Since y'all Einsteins decided to put me at E-1, I might as well share my thoughts before some opportunist decides to seal the deal.

More townlean than scumlean:

hops

This would be the last person for me to vote out at this very moment. They sound like genuine vanilla town newbie. The tone of their posts seems like they actually want to solve this game in town's favour and that's good enough for the time being.

Neutral:

Binatog13
DaTacoX
kennyk
Not_Mafia

These folks have a higher chance of being scum, but don't seem to give me anything to suspect them (yet). DaTaco is the most neutral of them all, Binatog being a close second. I know kennyk from a different game and their playstyle so far matches that of the other game. Not_Mafia is just a shitposter and there's nothing more to it.

More on the err side:

Jake The Wolfie
catboi
MegAzumarill

For semi-experienced players they've contributed surprisingly little to this game. I know it's still Day One, but in the last game I've played the SEs were on a much higher level. My vote is currently on MegAzumarill, but I'm down to vote out either one of those three.

That's what I gathered from what was posted so far.

Why does my playstyle match that of the other game? I didn't post any wild theories (yet). OK, maybe that is because there wasn't much to wave theories around. Although hops tried to step in my footsteps with her Wolfie theory.

[kennyk]

Funnily enough, despite it being said that I'm being active, I still got a prod PM. Anyways, I'd have to play many more games here before I can even have a sense for the scumtells here, so I'm just going to go with guesses for my reads.

Townlean:
catboi - Everyone is playing really passive right now so I'm not getting any exceptionally pro-town reads from anyone, but if I went with my instinct I'd go with him. He's been scumhunting slightly and seems to be trying to elicit more reactions from people.
MegAzumarill: Same as catboi.

Neutral:
Not_Mafia - I do feel like N_M is generating much less content than I expected, but I haven't looked through his post history too much. Maybe he picks up more on day 2. If he is scum I feel like we'd get more reads from him once he starts "scumhunting" on day 2, so if possible I'd want to find the other scum first. That and also he's still a null read for me.
Greeting - I'm not really sold on people thinking he's scumlean, if anyone actually thought so. Seems to me that he was placed on E-1 just to elicit a reaction, which had happened.
Binatog13 - Out of the entire thread, this is the only post he has made so far that has any real content:

I don't know much about these players, so idk how to read them, even NM. I only know NM for posting such long rainbow lyrics and Jester intro every game.

Now I'm not sure if that means anything, but I'd really want more to go on from him too.
VOTE: Binatog13

Honestly I had been sitting here for like half an hour trying to think of something useful to say about the others but there's just simply not enough posts for me.

I almost thoght you would forget me again and I was ready to post on that. But your last line saved it.

But if I read your list correctly, you have Binatog13 in the neutral department and there are others in your "I don't know what to think about them at all-department" but you still vote the neutral one. I can understand that you would like to get more info from him. But why no vote on someone you have absolutely no feeling about? (Yes, I know this would include me)

[kennyk]

I don't know if we should linger on the N_M wagon. I sense that people were seriously considering limming N_M, but I honestly feel like that's par for the course. Also, while I get that SEs aren't necessarily stronger players than newbies, I was hoping there would be more input from them just by virtue of them actually having more perspective on Mafiascum's meta and having a more stable playstyle that would be easier to scumread on.

But if I read your list correctly, you have Binatog13 in the neutral department and there are others in your "I don't know what to think about them at all-department" but you still vote the neutral one. I can understand that you would like to get more info from him. But why no vote on someone you have absolutely no feeling about? (Yes, I know this would include me)

I don't feel like me voting on my own will have as much weight compared to me as part of a wagon. I wanted for there to be a real risk of a lim, but honestly at this point I'm getting the feeling a quicklynch just won't happen now that everybody's looking for it.

*edit: I put my statement between the quotes, I was to say that I will be less active.

While being busy IRL is neither a scumtell nor towntell, that makes Binatog13 more dangerous just because there will be less information on him. But I would rather have no lim today than a significant risk of miselim. Hmm...

First a good advidse: Don't use the l-word. It was used for years on this site but with it's background shouldn't be used anymore.

Iguess I now know why you voted the way you did. Thanks for the answer.

In general I cold live with a d1 no-elim. But there is always some info to get even from a d1 miselim. Like who defended and who voted the lim. Yes, a miselim on a vanilla townie is bad, but nothing to be too afraid of. Accidently limming a Power role would be something completely different though.

[kennyk]

I don't think information instead of analysis is a reliable scumtell on day one, especially with everyone playing so passive.

Except a scumplayer slips there is no reliable scumtell on day one at all. There is a bit of gut feeling but that can easily be wrong.

Passive play is a problem (and I think I am guilty of that myself) as there isn't much information around. On the other hand I have the feeling, that it sometimes is encouraged. One tends to be in the line of fire for it a lot. To avoid this unwanted attention (unwanted for scum and town likewise) some prefer to stay more on the silent side. Another problem I see is that with no information from a night one (before day 1) there is nothing to build on on day one (as a townie). So unless there is a major scum slip, I am trusting no one in either direction.

[kennyk]

If you think I am scum, then who would plausibly be my partner?

That’s a question I’ll be thinking about after you flip scum. Otherwise, it just serves as a distraction.

That's kind of an important thing to consider.

It is always right to consider who might be the second scum. But one has to also consider that the two scum players might not have acted obviously connected. If they coordinate very carefully they might leave no visibal connection whatsoever. This is especially true in day one where there is not much evidence in any direction.

As it is highly unlikely to identify both scum players on day one and vote one of them out by majority, I won`t condemn someone who votes someone else out but has no obvious scum partner at hand. And if I read everyones reads correctly, there are not many townreads overall. So there are always many possible scum-partners around.

I might not agree with Greetings read on Jake and the consequences he makes out of them, I agree with him in taking one step at a time.

And as there seems to be a wagon building on Jake with me sitting in the front row, I would like to remove my RVS vote:

UNVOTE: Jake

[kennyk]

I'm a bit too busy to sort out my hunch right now, but I was feeling that there is at least one SE on the scumteam. I just feel like we'd see firmer tells from a two newbscum team. I also have the suspicion that one of the newbies are waiting for a busy SE scum to approve their plans before saying anything, but since so many newbies are being quiet I'm not sure if I can narrow down the pool of suspects.


I'll have to reread the thread again before I have any firm opinion on whether or not Jake should die, because right now I feel very biased after focusing too hard on Jake and Meg. I do say that since I read catboi and Meg as town and that I believe one of the scums is an SE, that leaves a scum in Jake, Greeting, and N_M.

I might be banking too much on our theoretical newbscum having low confidence as the reason for their passivity though.

First of all: As I get it, the roles are distributed randomly. While there is a high chance of scum being one SE and one newbie (too lazy to do the math), it could also be two newbies or even two SEs.

Second: If you assume that the newbie partner in a SE/newbie-scumteam only posts after the SE approved his plans, that wouldn`t mean he (or she) has to post so rare. I for my part would just get the go for general plans not every post. This is especially true for day one. So the low newbie postcount doesn`t mean it has to be a newbie/SE-team (unless they agreed that the newbie should keep a very low profile).

[kennyk]

It is always right to consider who might be the second scum. But one has to also consider that the two scum players might not have acted obviously connected. If they coordinate very carefully they might leave no visibal connection whatsoever. This is especially true in day one where there is not much evidence in any direction.

As it is highly unlikely to identify both scum players on day one and vote one of them out by majority, I won`t condemn someone who votes someone else out but has no obvious scum partner at hand. And if I read everyones reads correctly, there are not many townreads overall. So there are always many possible scum-partners around.

I might not agree with Greetings read on Jake and the consequences he makes out of them, I agree with him in taking one step at a time.

And as there seems to be a wagon building on Jake with me sitting in the front row, I would like to remove my RVS vote:

UNVOTE: Jake

Do you have a better candidate to vote out? If the answer is yes then whom and why? If the answer is no, then what would be the most ideal outcome of Day One in your opinion?

No, I don't have any better candidate. The most ideal outcome of day one would of course be a scum elim (most prefered the roleblocker or the rolecop, if the setup has one of them in it). But the chances to get that result are at about 22 % (if I did the math right).

[kennyk]

Mafia wins if no scum are eliminated and 4 players remain
No lim + Nk = 8 players -> mislim + nk-> 6 players -> mislim + NK = loss (2 mislims)
Lim + NK = 7 players-> mislim + Nk-> 5 players -> mislim = loss (3 mislims)

No limming actually takes away one elimination we have this game
Hence why it is objectively worse than eliminating someone

While it can we worst than eliminating someone, if a PR was elimmed then its kinda loss for the town team. But it has a low chance, its up to you guys if you want to take the risk.

In general the chances to elim a PR are not that low (if we stay in the setups with two PRs that is) from a VT position (2 out of 9). It is way higher for a scum player (2 out of 7) and very low for anyone with a PR on his own (1 out of 9).
But you mustn't forget the fact, that anyone who has a PR and is at E-2 or E-1 can claim said PR. Depending on if there's a counterclaim or not this tends to lead to a no elim (and most likely a NK). If there's a counterclaim, we are going to get rid of one scum player on day one or day two. So it won't be too risky to more or less randomly elim someone day one.

[kennyk]

VOTE: kennyk

I like hops a lot. Although a lot of people were quick to shoot down her theory about Jake being late to confirm, and I'm not on board with the reasoning, I don't think it's the type of theory a newbie scum player comes up with. Further posts have all had that good scumhunting energy, trying to move things forward, coming up with ideas, examining players, just looks like she's trying to solve the game. Easy townread there, I think.

I like Greeting as well although it's more of a soft lean than a full-on townread. Wouldn't support eliminating him but can't back it with full confidence.

Feelings on DaTacoX are even more slight but enough toward the good side based on recent posts.


I went back to review kenny and it feels like he's reactive and mostly responding to things with factual statements. He's too guarded, hasn't had any real suspects. In the previous game I was briefly with him in, despite not playing for over a decade, he was quick to out theories and suspect people just for wagon votes in RVS and the like, it felt like there was real momentum from him. Here, I get none of that in anything he's said, and even if the game started somewhat slow, it feels as though he's struggling to form an opinion on

anything

, and I think in all likelihood it's because he's mafia here and is afraid of making waves.

I reevaluated said game as well. And I guess I was a little bit over the top in the starting phase there. And there was way more happening in that game that got me to form theories.
But you are absolutely right about me struggling to get opinions on anything. So far I am really clueless on what's going on. All I can say is that scum is really good in hiding here (not that I was that good at scumhunting in my other games).

[kennyk]

It is always right to consider who might be the second scum. But one has to also consider that the two scum players might not have acted obviously connected. If they coordinate very carefully they might leave no visibal connection whatsoever. This is especially true in day one where there is not much evidence in any direction.

As it is highly unlikely to identify both scum players on day one and vote one of them out by majority, I won`t condemn someone who votes someone else out but has no obvious scum partner at hand. And if I read everyones reads correctly, there are not many townreads overall. So there are always many possible scum-partners around.

I might not agree with Greetings read on Jake and the consequences he makes out of them, I agree with him in taking one step at a time.

And as there seems to be a wagon building on Jake with me sitting in the front row, I would like to remove my RVS vote:

UNVOTE: Jake

Do you have a better candidate to vote out? If the answer is yes then whom and why? If the answer is no, then what would be the most ideal outcome of Day One in your opinion?

No, I don't have any better candidate. The most ideal outcome of day one would of course be a scum elim (most prefered the roleblocker or the rolecop, if the setup has one of them in it). But the chances to get that result are at about 22 % (if I did the math right).

Then why are you choosing to unvote without picking a different candidate?

If you’re talking percentages then I gather that you have no suspects and rely only on mathematics? Correct me if I’m wrong. If that is true then why aren’t you choosing a candidate at random?

While I don’t have an issue with you disagreeing to vote out Jake, I don’t like the unvote when stuff got a bit heated. Sounds like you don’t want to get your hands dirty with a possible miselim.

Yes, those numbers are pure math. But even the mild suspicions I might have don`t change those numbers because I have no way of knowing if they are true or not.

I never said I agreed or disagreed with Jake being voted out. But my vote on him was still a vote from the RVS. And as this suggests it was random. In the stage we are in right now I don`t want to be on any waggon with such an early random vote. If I was to be on an elim wagon it had to be a somewhat backed up vote.

[kennyk]

They, themselves said, in 211 that since the wagon was slowly picking up, they didn’t want to be in the front row.

Because, as they said, it was an RVS vote, which gives them total legitimacy to remove their vote.

Them removing their RVS vote also leads to the idea that they in fact did not support my wagon, otherwise they would have.. well, not removed their vote.

Like I said before, my issue with that is not that they disagreed on voting you out but the fact that they did not pick an alternative.

If you insist, I will vote now:

VOTE: Greeting

That`s

E-1

if I am correct. Let`s see if someone dares to quickhammer.

As Taco pointed out you didn`t consider him unvoting without revoting suspicious. Was it because he did unvote you? Or are you a little bit mad about me jumping off your scum train on Jake?

[kennyk]

Also, could you give a case for why you are scumreading me, or at least who else is in your PoE (Process of Elimination)?

I was pretty on the fence over limming Jake, since there are a few more people who I don't have enough information on to even mark as leaning town, including kennyk, Binatog, and N_M, but Jake haven't really been giving a good case for a nolim or to have someone else be higher on the lim. Something which feels to me like a scummy reaction trying to have their came and eat it with both hopefully not getting limmed but also not screwing over their partner with any association when they flip.

That said, N_M's terrible job of being town on day 1 makes me suspicious of him too.

I have my doubt about the conclusions in both posts.
Fist I can see why Jake is not suggesting a nolim because, as discussed earlier in this thread, a day one lim is always better than a nolim. And as far as I am concerned the fact that he didn`t try to build a case on someone else do deflect the train on him feels more town than scum. It should be no problem to just pick on some townie and not reveal any association with his partner if he was scum.

As far as I understand it, N_M might not make a hell of a good day one here (who is?), but for he could be far worse with trolling everyone and everything.

[kennyk]

trying to have their came and eat it

*have their cake and eat it too

Ugh I need to proofread my posts more. Tripleposting is my own pet peeve too.

I can asure you from my own experience, that even proofreading doesn`t help in most cases. Admittedly there might be mistakes in my writing because English is not my native language. But I would guess that more than half of my mistakes are due to sticky fingers ot the like. Even rereading some posts twice leads to

[kennyk]

There, now was that so hard?

The first part of the story has been disclosed by me in 188, including why I suspect four players: Jake The Wolfie, kennyk, Binatog19 and Not_Mafia.

Of those four I decided to vote out Jake The Wolfie for the following reasons.

All of his posts up until the first time I was put at E-2 (post 102) - and later at E-1 were fluffy and lacked content. They gave the impression of the type of player that likes to incite drama and then sit at the backseat and watch it unfold. I actually agree with DaTacoX's description of this in post 192. It is possible to be both fluffy and aggressive and that is the impression I also gathered from Jake's posts.

His further posts weren't a lot better. In 178 they voiced a suspicion over kennyk without taking

any

sort of action. The rest of his posts seem to have this kind of teacher attitude, which is actually trying to steer people to say what they want them to say. I see this as a possible elaborate plan to generate content that will clear his name.

Jake never explained why they decided to vote me out, and as evidenced in that post, we know that it wasn't an RVS. In post 234 they even said that they don't think I'm necessarily scum but decides to vote me out anyway. Even if my death was to be useful for town by providing information, it was never specified what kind of information would that be. While I agree that it's better to vote out someone than not elim Day One (although there are cases in which noelim is better), I'm not going to hammer myself for a simple reason - I'm town and don't see any benefits to allowing my elimination to happen.

I think that voting out Jake is worth a shot, although he's not the only bandwagon that I'd support.

Kennyk is a possible scum partner to Jake. Post 178 could be an attempt for them to distance themselves from one another.

Let us go through this.
First of all, I wasn't trying to incite drama. That vote was to pressurize you, because at the time I didn't have a firm grasp on the game. In response, nothing much happened. in fact, I've been trying to spark a discussion because that is how the game advances, Greeting.
Next, I've already contested how you can't be both Aggressive and fluffy, but that is a moot point.

While you could take 178 at me casting suspicion against Kenny, it can (and also was intended) be interpreted as me not understanding what Kenny was saying. Not understanding what someone is saying doesn't mean that you are suspicious of them.

Yes, I didn't explain why I voted you, but that is partially because saying "don't worry, I don't actually want to kill you" makes building pressure harder. That was my mistake.

I think that Greeting can live another day here, but now I need to find a new bandwagon to hops on.
UNVOTE: Greeting

*Disclaimer: The following line is full of irony!*
Look what we have here. Another player unvotig without voting someone else. There were other players who were heavily accused because of such a behaviour. Why does Jake not get the same treatment?

Btw. was it a joke no one got, a mistake in writing or are you really suggesting a bandwagon on hops?

[kennyk]

Well that was better than expected

I cant`t agree more. Elimming a rolecop day 1 is in itself absolutely good.

And something else I didn`t expect was the catboi nightkill. As N_M read him and Greeting scum twice I wasn't too sure if that was a distancing post and one of them was scum. With Greeting hammering I doubt it, too that he wasn`t bussing his rolecop co-scum. So it would have left catboi as a suspect from N_Ms post. I would have really digged into that today. Good, that this isn't happening now (yes, I know catboi was town, but better let scum NK townies than us miselimming ourselfs. And catboi was 'only' vanilla, so it could have been worse).

So we have on our positive side:
- Mafia power role is out.
- Mafia didn't nightkill a town PR.
- A main suspect from one of N_Ms posts was NKed by mafia.

[kennyk]

Yeah, I’m not going to follow the ask before you hammer rule. Had I done that, we would be debating if Not_Mafia really was what he claimed, then the real holder of a power role would claim and we would lose them.

I’m mistrustful of everyone who wasn’t on the Not_Mafia wagon.

VOTE: kennyk

I am very glad that things happened as they did. It was also very good that after N_M claimed jailkeeper after the hammer, no one counterclaimed as this would have given scum a perfect night target.

I see why you mistrust everyone who wasn't on the wagon. But there is always a slight chance, that his partner was on it.

[kennyk]

If anyone receives a FN message say so, but don't say from who.

I wanted to post the first half of that, too. And I thought of posting the second half as well. But thinking it through, I don't think it is that good.

I totally agree, that posting a "I received a message that someone is town" helps town a lot. It does in no way confirm the person who got this message, but it should confirm the sender (more to that later). and this info also reduces the possible setups to two. If such a message exists, there is either a tracker or a jailkeeper out there. And with this knowledge we could adjust our strategy to scumhunt.

If there is no one who is posting such a message there are the following options:
- There is no FN. We are in the setup with a tracker and a doc. (This is the scenario I would prefer as, in my opinion this gives us the most grip on the game)
- Catboi was the one who should have gotten the FN-message. So it is lost with his death.
- We are in the setup with the FN and the JK and the JK either targeted the FN or the FN 'target'.
- The FN 'target' is the remaining scum player who doesn't want to confirm a townie.

But what if someone received a "XY is town"-message? That someone should definitely say so as I don't think that silently defending the FN is a good way to play it.

But what about keeping the FNs name secret? If it is not revealed, we only know, that there is a FN out there. This helps a bit, but not a lot. And if the person, who got the message is NKed night 2, there is no one who could confirm the name of the FN. On the other hand the FN is very likely to be NKed night 2 if the name is revealed. As town has an information deficit I would rather go with naming the FN to gain as uch info as possible.

[kennyk]

If we're in a setup with a JK, then whoever JK had roleblocked is basically confirmed town, right?

Yes, that is true. We had a nightkill. So the JK didn't target the only scum player. The JK target is confirmed town.

So if there is a JK he didn't target catboi (who would be alive if he had been) and our remaining scum. The JK might have targeted our FN (as no one claimed to have gotten a message). Or it was one of the other 5 players.

If we were in the JK/FN setup and our JK didn't target the FN we would end up with three confirmed townies. That are slightly too few to ride this game home.

[kennyk]

In general I have my doubts about the only protective role in the game to claim without being on a wagon. And I asked myself why Meg so much wanted the doc to reveal him- or in this case herself.

With the things said, I can only come to the following solution: Meg is the tracker. And they have a plan that could work. They visited someone last night that didn't do anything so that someone didn't kill catboi and therefor is town. From the ISO of Meg I guess it was me (posts 367, 368 and 408) but I could be wrong there. So now with hops as the doc, Meg knows three townies and is unsure of the four others.

Let's say we miselim today, hops should protect Meg and meg tracks whoever. Hops is likely to be NKed. That leaves Meg, me (or the other person Meg tracked N1), the person Meg tracks N2 and two other people. If the person Meg tracked had any night action, it is scum, if not it is town. And with three known townies versus two unknown, it is an easy game.

The 5 % missing in this watertight plan were there (if I deduct correctly) for the rare case Meg tracked the doc and the doc didn't post a night choice.

If Meg doesn't correct me, I am very much willing to proceed according to this plan. Even if it means that they didn't track me N1 and I am one of the townies eliminated. Every townie wins if scum is eliminated, no matter if one is alive in the end or not.

[kennyk]

Oh, I forgot something.

To go with the plan, I need to vote.

VOTE: DaTacoX

Sorry, Taco, it is nothing personal, but even if you are town, I have to do it.

[kennyk]

I have had some more thought on Megs play.

First I now really think he tracked me. In hindsight this very much looks like a hint about who he wanted to track N1:

If i die tonight I'd like to say that I think kenny is town.

And now I have another theory of why Megs plan was "only" 95 % sure. They might have thought that they needed four confirmed townies today to make it a win. With greeting hammering the rolecop he is very unlikely to be scum. So unless greeting was playing a very dark strategy there or him being the doc, there are four confirmed townies and it is all game over for scum.

But as i pointed out in my other post, even if greeting was scum or the doc (which he obviously isn't) it all works out.

So unless Meg tells us that my lines of thought are totally wrong and they aren't the tracker, we are on a strategy that will win 100 % and scum may give up right now. And even if Meg isn't the tracker but the real tracker tracked an innocent townie last night it would be game over.

[kennyk]

Sure, why not? I'm the doctor, so we have a tracker/doctor setup. If this doesn't work out the scum still has to choose between NKing me or finding the tracker before they're caught.

Alright, I'm tracker.

Greeting is VT (didn't visit)

We have a mechanical autowin if I am protected tonight (i can clear one of the unconfirmed VTs/get a guilty) we can eliminate all three other players

And I really thought your posts meant you visited me. That's some bad reading on my part.

At least I got the rest correct.

[kennyk]

Can I have an explanation of the plan and what town should be doing? I'm tired today and my brain isn't working right.

If there is no one who counterclaims you or Meg it is the following:
You (doc), Meg (tracker) and greeting (tracked by Meg) are confirmed town.
We vote out any of us other four players (It doesn't matter who).
If we hit the other scum --> game over
If it is a miselim --> You protect Meg in N2 (and might be killed by the remaining scum) and Meg tracks any of the remaining three players.
If the tracked player is scum --> game over
If not --> Meg, greeting and whoever was tracked N2 are confirmed townies. That leaves two other players. One of them should be eliminated D3.
If it is scum --> game over
If it is again a miselim --> one of the three confirmed players is NKed in N3. That leaves the other two confirmed townies and one other player who gets eliminated D4 --> game over
All of those scenarios are "game over" for scum. Town wins.

If there is anyone out there who claims to have any viable town power role (FN, tracker, JK or doc) either that player, you or Meg fakeclaimed. I don't see a way, apart from very bad play, that any townie fakeclaimed, so scum has to be one of you three. So my way would be the following (although the order doesn't matter):
We elim that third PR-claiming player.
If it is scum --> game over
If it is a miselim --> We start D3 with five players and elim you
If it is scum --> game over
If it is a miselim --> We start D4 with three players and elim Meg --> game over

If I didn't miss anything that should be our road to victory for town. Or our scum player realises his/her situation and resigns today.

[kennyk]

If greeting hadn't been confirmed as town I would be switching votes now. We have a fool proof tactic. Yet another wagon is opened.

All the confirmed townies have to work together, not voting on different players.

At this stage it doen't even matter how anybody is read. I don't read Taco as scum. But the game winning strategy for town needs us to eliminate one not confirmed player.

If everyone promises to play according to Megs plan (which I guess I laid out in all detail*) I am even willing to vote or hammer myself if this doesn't get in the right direction.

* Just realised I forgot the scenario where scum doesn't kill hops N2. But even if the tracked player is NKed it is 3 confirmed townies against 2 non-confirmed D3.

[kennyk]

Let's make it a short day:
VOTE: DaTacoX

[kennyk]

Not even 4 hours after the day started, we have a hammer. Why am I suddenly feeling hungry?

[kennyk]

Why shouldn't I have done it. The strategy was clear. No one counterclaimed Megs claim of being a tracker. They tracked you and you were doing things to hops.

Now that I think of it, I don't see any reason for voting you *sarcasm*

[kennyk]

So any final words before our mod seals it and flips you?

[kennyk]

I totally forgot to mention:
*ironic voice on* Oh, no! We lost hops last night! And she was our doctor. How are we going to win this? *ironic voice off*

[kennyk]

You are not a spicy taco? One more reason to
VOTE: Taco