Newbie 2081 | Game Over

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Oh, nice. I was afraid the game would begin while I was sleeping, but it turns out I get to be the quickest draw in the west.

Hi everyone. Have some not-so-random questions:

- If you're a newbie, how many games of Mafia and mafia-likes have you played prior to this?
- Either newbie or SE, How would you rate your experience level?
- How would you describe your playstyle as as Scum, or how you would anticipate yourself playing as scum if this was your first game?
- For people who has actually played scum before, by eyeballing or actually counting, how often would you say you win as scum? What do you think are the common elements in games where you win as scum?
- What's your timezone and what's your anticipated schedule for checking in on this game?

For me:
- I've played a couple forum mafia and much more party Mafia.
- I haven't played forum mafia since forever and I was basically a toddler back then with no coherent thoughts so it doesn't count. Party mafia is certainly different because I tend to just be messing around there and causing chaos rather than actually trying to win. So, basically this is my first real game of forum mafia and I'm armed with nothing but the wiki and reading other games.
- As scum, I was certainly passive. In forum mafia I remember relying on advice from my more experienced counterpart on what positions to take as scum during the day. In future forum mafia where I get scum I'd try to be more active in "scumhunting" though, because that sounds more fun than just sitting around hoping I don't get wagoned. Plus I notice Town tends to be less mad OOCly if it was scum who ruined their ELo rather than an honest town mistake.
- I'd say I win half the games I play as scum in party mafia, usually because my teammate is a good liar or town is dumb more than anything on my part, though. In forum mafia I get eliminated pretty quick usually due to my own idiocy or really bad luck so I'd say my scum winrate out of the small sample size is zero.
- I live in UTC+7 and I'd be checking in around 8AM and 5PM at the minimum each day. Don't expect me to be awake around 10PM-6AM. I'm a busy person, but my time management is better than most, so I expect to be one of the more active players. Unfortunately it seems to me that I'm unlikely to be awake at day start and day end.

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VOTE: Not_Mafia

I'm new to the meta of Mafiascum, could you explain why RQS is anti-town?

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@NM: I see. Well, anyone is free to not answer if they have other content to contribute to the opening of the game. I'll avoid useless fluff once we're onto something productive. I'd say that your reaction is at least giving me some vague read, so I'd disagree on it doing nothing to catch scum.

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Have some half-serious hot take reads before I get ready for bed.

Jake The Wolfie: This is a long shot... but I think this slot leans either scum or power role because Jake is an SE so it doesn't make sense for Jake to just not be around and checking PM, especially with how active the person's post history seems to be. My theory is that Jake's just not enthusiastic about getting a role with responsibilities. Or Jake's just busy IRL. But even if Jake is busy and is in the process of getting a replacement then I feel like that suggests Jake's role is something more involved than previously predicted by that person. Also, referring to people without using pronouns is hard.
Binatog13: Lean very, very, very slightly town based on my gut instinct.
Not_Mafia: Lean very, very, very slightly town because he has posted early. From what I've seen of NM's post history he loves to shitpost and mess around, so his early behavior here isn't abnormal. If he was scum, I feel his playstyle would be pretty bad for him though, so I'm keeping an eye on him to see if he makes any slips. Also, seems to be a bit overeager to teach as SE which makes me feel like he's genuinely pro-town.
MegAzumarill: Lean slightly scum based on my gut instinct.
DaTacoX: Hasn't posted yet.
Greeting: Hasn't posted yet.
catboi: Hasn't posted yet.

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The PMs were sent out for longer than that if you were referring to my theory on Jake. But with the other people not posting? Yeah, I'm not saying there's anything scummy about not being awake or having checked the thread yet.

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Jake's last visit to the forum was at Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:02 pm.

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Ok, now that I think about it, that could just be Jake logging in, confirming the role, and midwaybear not being online to acknowledge it yet. We'll see.

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welp, there goes that theory.

Why am I left out?

i have no idea where i copied the names from that i ended up with only 7.

also I wanna point out that NM is now E-1?

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I'm torn between avoiding miselim and getting rid of NM in the off chance that he is scum, because based on what I've read of his post history he'd be a gigantic pain to scumread.

@DTX: That Jake replaced out due to the slot being scum. But Jake didn't replace out and it was just a mod mistake.

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NM would be good as a town from what I've seen, I'm just not sure

if

he is town.

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UNVOTE: N_M

I still get a town vibe from N_M so I'll change my random vote to...

VOTE: kennyk

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What do you think it was, then?

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I mean, can you really be sure if anyone is town on page 3?

I was fishing for some lean at the very least, not that I'm familiar enough with Mafiascum meta to know what to look for.

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It's completely a hunch I can't explain, I'll get back to you if I figure it out or change my mind.

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We're at E-1 again. If this is serious, I'd want to know the reasoning behind it.

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Funnily enough, despite it being said that I'm being active, I still got a prod PM. Anyways, I'd have to play many more games here before I can even have a sense for the scumtells here, so I'm just going to go with guesses for my reads.

Townlean:
catboi - Everyone is playing really passive right now so I'm not getting any exceptionally pro-town reads from anyone, but if I went with my instinct I'd go with him. He's been scumhunting slightly and seems to be trying to elicit more reactions from people.
MegAzumarill: Same as catboi.

Neutral:
Not_Mafia - I do feel like N_M is generating much less content than I expected, but I haven't looked through his post history too much. Maybe he picks up more on day 2. If he is scum I feel like we'd get more reads from him once he starts "scumhunting" on day 2, so if possible I'd want to find the other scum first. That and also he's still a null read for me.
Greeting - I'm not really sold on people thinking he's scumlean, if anyone actually thought so. Seems to me that he was placed on E-1 just to elicit a reaction, which had happened.
Binatog13 - Out of the entire thread, this is the only post he has made so far that has any real content:

I don't know much about these players, so idk how to read them, even NM. I only know NM for posting such long rainbow lyrics and Jester intro every game.

Now I'm not sure if that means anything, but I'd really want more to go on from him too.
VOTE: Binatog13

Honestly I had been sitting here for like half an hour trying to think of something useful to say about the others but there's just simply not enough posts for me.

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I don't know if we should linger on the N_M wagon. I sense that people were seriously considering limming N_M, but I honestly feel like that's par for the course. Also, while I get that SEs aren't necessarily stronger players than newbies, I was hoping there would be more input from them just by virtue of them actually having more perspective on Mafiascum's meta and having a more stable playstyle that would be easier to scumread on.

But if I read your list correctly, you have Binatog13 in the neutral department and there are others in your "I don't know what to think about them at all-department" but you still vote the neutral one. I can understand that you would like to get more info from him. But why no vote on someone you have absolutely no feeling about? (Yes, I know this would include me)

I don't feel like me voting on my own will have as much weight compared to me as part of a wagon. I wanted for there to be a real risk of a lim, but honestly at this point I'm getting the feeling a quicklynch just won't happen now that everybody's looking for it.

*edit: I put my statement between the quotes, I was to say that I will be less active.

While being busy IRL is neither a scumtell nor towntell, that makes Binatog13 more dangerous just because there will be less information on him. But I would rather have no lim today than a significant risk of miselim. Hmm...

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Then give town a case. It's a good avenue to go down as any. I did suspect either Meg or N_M by process of elimination of other town-leaning SEs and a hunch that at least one person on the scumteam is an SE. The hunch is because I feel like with two newbies scumteam we'd see some more conclusive scumtells by now, even this early in the game.

I'm not sure if Meg's townhunting is necessarily scumlean though, since it's not like him townlocking someone will expose a power role. If anything it feels like him genuinely trying to narrow down the lynch pool.

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I don't think information instead of analysis is a reliable scumtell on day one, especially with everyone playing so passive.

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I'm of the school of thought that a town player will generally incriminate themselves less than a scum, no matter how much they put their foot in their mouth. So I'd rather prefer people talk more in general. Although I guess a town drawing too much attention to themselves might be considered anti-town since that would distract from scum.

Speaking of distraction, though, is it just me or N_M has been saying very little and kind of staying under the radar after his early shitposting? He's not as much active lurking as much as he's literally just lurking and voting without any explanation.

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Her.

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I'm a bit too busy to sort out my hunch right now, but I was feeling that there is at least one SE on the scumteam. I just feel like we'd see firmer tells from a two newbscum team. I also have the suspicion that one of the newbies are waiting for a busy SE scum to approve their plans before saying anything, but since so many newbies are being quiet I'm not sure if I can narrow down the pool of suspects.


I'll have to reread the thread again before I have any firm opinion on whether or not Jake should die, because right now I feel very biased after focusing too hard on Jake and Meg. I do say that since I read catboi and Meg as town and that I believe one of the scums is an SE, that leaves a scum in Jake, Greeting, and N_M.

I might be banking too much on our theoretical newbscum having low confidence as the reason for their passivity though.

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Oh wait, Greeting isn't an SE.

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@kennyk: That's true, I suppose it's not a highly plausible theory. Plus, at day 1 I guess a lot of people struggle at scumhunting without any obvious slips.

@Jake: It's more that I observe newbies tend to be less confident. Even if people have played mafia before, I don't think it's common for newbies to have been playing mafia vigorously prior to this.

Also a thing I was wondering about is the remark that a miselim is still marginally useful to town, but I think that a miselim and a nightkill will lead to an ELo situation immediately on day 2, which wouldn't be very nice. Right now there's no one I want to lim more than I want to avoid a possibility we lim the wrong person.

Jake so far isn't scumlean to me as much as they are the least townlean by process of elimination, but this would be unfair since there are many null reads too.

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Day 2 is never ELo in a Newbie

Oh right, I had a brain fart there.

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Wouldn't a PR getting NK still be a bad outcome for town?

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Sorry, what does BPIC and CFD stand for?

VOTE: Jake the Wolfie

Also, I think I need to go and reread the whole thread pretty soon before the day ends, but if we want to get a lim happening then Jake is on my list for "most likely to be scum", granted that's still less than 50% chance IMO for them to be scum. I don't have any firm reasons or scumread on Jake, just that it seems likely by process of elimination of people more likely to be town, which is also why I don't think I need to wait for Greeting to explain. kennyk is second on the list because of his voting irregularities, but it could just be fear of mislim. I don't feel a Jake/kennyk scumteam being a thing.

I'd also like an explanation from the cow on his Greeting/catboi scumteam theory.

I think that the back-and-forth between Meg and Greeting is a waste of my brain energy to analyze so I'll look at it after we have more info.

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Also, could you give a case for why you are scumreading me, or at least who else is in your PoE (Process of Elimination)?

I was pretty on the fence over limming Jake, since there are a few more people who I don't have enough information on to even mark as leaning town, including kennyk, Binatog, and N_M, but Jake haven't really been giving a good case for a nolim or to have someone else be higher on the lim. Something which feels to me like a scummy reaction trying to have their came and eat it with both hopefully not getting limmed but also not screwing over their partner with any association when they flip.

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That said, N_M's terrible job of being town on day 1 makes me suspicious of him too.

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trying to have their came and eat it

*have their cake and eat it too

Ugh I need to proofread my posts more. Tripleposting is my own pet peeve too.

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Also, could you give a case for why you are scumreading me, or at least who else is in your PoE (Process of Elimination)?

I was pretty on the fence over limming Jake, since there are a few more people who I don't have enough information on to even mark as leaning town, including kennyk, Binatog, and N_M, but Jake haven't really been giving a good case for a nolim or to have someone else be higher on the lim. Something which feels to me like a scummy reaction trying to have their came and eat it with both hopefully not getting limmed but also not screwing over their partner with any association when they flip.

I.. am not advocating for a no lim? Like, that's pretty opposite to what I'm doing here.

You say that, yet you haven't voted on anyone.

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I suppose I'll be looking for other wagons too, but honestly personally I don't have anyone else I'd rate as more likely to be scum right now. There's not much information to be had all around on this day even though I looked over the thread again.

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Yeah, ugh, I don't like what N_M is getting up to and he feels vaguely anti-town.

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I'm not fully sold on N_M or kennyk as scum either, and with less than 23 hours left I don't think we'll be able to get a new wagon up in time, so I'm doubling down on flipping Jake. I'd rather look at N_M and kennyk with more information on the next day.

I'd honestly rather there be no lim since I have no firm reads at all, but if this is how we do it in Mafiascum...

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If Jake was scum he easily could have kept the wagon on Greeting and probably gotten that elimination, the fact that he pulled back his vote when he did and it left him in peril shows a lack of scum survivalism. I'd much rather flip N_M or even Greeting.

It could also be a scumteam that doesn't feel like bussing is a great idea on day 1, but now that I think on N_ M more, I'd rather flip him even if his passivity could be explained by it being day 1. If it turns out to be Jake, it shouldn't be too late to nail them day 2 anyways after we have more information and some ways to rattle the scumteam/remaining scum.

I don't really feel great about the CFD happening here, but that's day 1 for you, I guess.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

For the record, I'm firmly more on null than scum with N_ M.

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I know people have said this already in other words but to say it out loud... putting aside the possibility of astoundingly bad scum play, I think we can then assume nobody on the N_M wagon a bussing scum, since it'd be dumb to sacrifice a rolecop so early on. Binatog could've been distancing and had it blow up in his face though which would be hilarious but unlikely.

I don't remember why I suspected kennyk as second on my list to lim, but it was probably just the lack of townreads. I'll look at his posts in iso when I have the time later but to get the ball rolling...

VOTE: kennyk

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If we're in a setup with a JK, then whoever JK had roleblocked is basically confirmed town, right?

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Also, I still don't follow what advantage town gets from knowing the setup. Right now scum can't know the setup yet, while the PRs would have more information on the setup, even exactly in the event that said PR is a JK or a doctor. I'm not sure why we'd want to nullify that.

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Could you elaborate why you would want a doctor to claim?

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Sure, why not? I'm the doctor, so we have a tracker/doctor setup. If this doesn't work out the scum still has to choose between NKing me or finding the tracker before they're caught.

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Can I have an explanation of the plan and what town should be doing? I'm tired today and my brain isn't working right.

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I'll leave a vote here in case the hammer goes through while I'm sleeping.

VOTE: DaTacoX

Though can I say it's a bit inexplicable how Jake was adamant about not dying when they were VT. I thought Jake was the tracker or something. Was that entirely for the memes, Jake? (Since I am reasonably certain you're not scum)

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VOTE: Binatog13

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I felt bad that I didn't call out the autowin myself, since I knew the setup while Meg didn't. However, I suppose the consolation is that there would be a nonzero chance that Taco would've claimed Tracker and throw a spanner in the works had I done so. Meg softclaiming and me claiming as a townlock cinched the win.

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Also RIP scum for being really stealthy this game and then dying to bullshit.