Micro 1031: Elephant Love Song Medley

[Dunnstral]

Maf Topics
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=87910
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=87909
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=87923

Why do they all say not authorized?

[Dunnstral]

There can only be one

[Dunnstral]

Those with a keen eye may have noticed that this is the setup where there are 2 T-T pairs and two T-S pairs, and not the setup with 3 T-T pairs and 1 S-S pair

[Dunnstral]

I rolled triple town (confirmed by me not being able to access the mafia pt) and so my eye was not keen and I assumed it was the latter

[Dunnstral]

Mech talk:

In this setup it is established that it is pro-town to reveal lover pairs immediately. This is because mafia already know 2 of the 4 pairs, and the last 2 can either be inferred or don't really matter to them.

In this run perhaps even more so, because things are entangled in weird ways.

[Dunnstral]

I'm confused. Why are we confirming our lovers?
~C

Did you read 4 posts above this?

[Dunnstral]

CheekyTeeky, SLTheViper, Taly; in that order

[Dunnstral]

NM and MAzu are scum.
MAzu and NM are scum.
Taly and Amy are scum.
Amy and Taly are scum.
Jingle is the best mod.
The best mods have a Jingle.

NO, I am not scum and based on my individual PTs, I don’t believe Taly and Meg are either. I have absolutely no read on Queen yet. The one thing you actually got right was about Jingle being the best mod and that’s probably the only thing. Whatever you are in this game, you should be a lot more careful about trying to push miselims, unless you’re actually scum and in that case, have at it.

For what, all 3 games? You got all that from your pts?

[Dunnstral]

Trying to sort for 3 different games at the same time with no flips is challenging. With no pressure on anyone, it's not possible.

I'm fine with eliminating SLTheViper, who did confirm in the pt but never posted in thread.

I'm also fine with eliminating Amy Dunne because I think their defense based on little is suspicious.

If Amy is scum, she could be partnered with Taly or Meg, or with Taly or Meg's partners in one of the pairings. That's a lot of possibilities for being paired with someone she is defending here.

Also, I disagree with the last line of 81. What is a miselim here? This first elimination results in six alignments being revealed, there is a good chance that at least one of those is mafia.

Each setup has 2 town-town pairs, and 2 town-mafia pairs. That means that mafia exists in 50% of pairs in each game. The chance of us eliminating somebody and having everybody flip town is 12.5%.

[Dunnstral]

My loves are Dunnstral, Queen, SLtheViper.

Oh, it’s you, so what’s your read on all your lovers?

Well since nothing has happened yet, there's no way for me to know the alignment of my pairs in all 3 of their games. As I said, SLTheViper posted to confirm then never again. Trying to tr people here is sort of nonsensical

[Dunnstral]

Me and Taly think it’s unlikely that anyone rolled triple scum, so my working theory is that the scumiest players are some combo of T - M - M.

And how do you define the scummiest players?

[Dunnstral]

You are trying to use tone to read and be read, and I think that with no pressure and flips, there is no way that kind of thing will work in this setup. Most people are going to be a mix of town and mafia in their games

[Dunnstral]

Also Dunne, did it ever occur to you that I might actually have better than rand reads?

No

[Dunnstral]

I like rat in my pt they're the only one talking to me lol

I just don't think the pts can be useful yet.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Radical Rat

[Dunnstral]

I find it hard to believe that you really considered the above

[Dunnstral]

I voted out mafia in groups A and C and flipped town in group B

You do the math

[Dunnstral]

Game A:

Taly

| Queen
Game B: Taly |

Amy Dunne

Game C: Taly |

Dunnstral

VOTE: Taly

[Dunnstral]

Game A:

Taly

| Queen
Game B: Taly |

Amy Dunne

Game C:

Taly

|

Dunnstral

VOTE: Taly

This is more accurate, Taly is probably scum in either A or C, Amy Dunne is probably scum in B due to their early defense of Taly

[Dunnstral]

Also Queen can be Green in group A

[Dunnstral]

There is not enough information to figure that out yet. It is not necessary to figure that out yet. Also, I voted for Taly.

[Dunnstral]

Cheeky is not lover pairs with Taly

[Dunnstral]

but since we know Cheeky is scum in game C, shouldn’t we be trying to find her buddy?

What do you think I'm doing?

Taly, Cheeky, and Radical Rat were the 3 that were not on the vote. Radical Rat was scum in game A, Cheeky was scum in Game C. That makes Taly more likely to be mafia in games A and C, while being neutral in game B.

And then you look at their iso, are they particularly town? No, they aren't.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Taly
Don't want to kill rat by way of miltank.

Ya need 2 more votes to get me to blink, sis.

Fine.
VOTE: MegAzumarill

I don't find this particularly convincing.

[Dunnstral]

She could have. Cheeky's involvement is only related to Taly in 1/3 games, anyway.

[Dunnstral]

Why not solve Game A? I think Amy since they went straight to game C.

You'd like that wouldn't you

[Dunnstral]

Why not solve Game A? I think Amy since they went straight to game C.

VOTE: Cheeky

Good point.
I voted Rat and you were reluctant to vote him.

Cheeky was scum in game C. That is sufficient motivation to be reluctant to vote Radical Rat, it does not further point towards her being scum in group A.

[Dunnstral]

I think you're scum in A dafaq

Why would Amy votes Radical Rat to E-1 if they were scum in group A?

[Dunnstral]

I think you're scum in A dafaq

Why would Amy votes Radical Rat to E-1 if they were scum in group A?

The wagon wasn't going anywhere so why not cruise it for town cred. Obvs imo.

Why didn't you do that then?

[Dunnstral]

I think you're scum in A dafaq

Why would Amy votes Radical Rat to E-1 if they were scum in group A?

The wagon wasn't going anywhere so why not cruise it for town cred. Obvs imo.

Why didn't you do that then?

I pseudo did by conceding it was a fine wagon.

I mean, you didn't. There was no town cred for you, killing Radical Rat flipped yourself as mafia.

[Dunnstral]

Unfortunately, I think you are both mafia in different games arguing as mafia within your specific games I await town voices.

[Dunnstral]

Cheeky is definitely not arguing in good faith right now, she is still playing for game C

[Dunnstral]

Radical rat was paired with me in group B. we were both town in that game. That's the game I think you are scum in.

[Dunnstral]

Whatever she is in games A and B, it’s clear she cares principally about saving her buddy in game C and isn’t interested in solving.

We should be voting her buddy instead of Cheeky right now

[Dunnstral]

Game A:

Taly

|

Queen

Game B: Taly |

Amy Dunne

Game C:

Taly

|

Dunnstral

I am town in C. Cheeky agrees it is Amy in B, and thinks it 'could be' taly in A.

So, her motivations only line up a certain way here. If Cheeky were town in both A and B with Taly as town in C, She should be happy to vote Taly in groups A and B, while getting to miselim in group C.

Assuming this isn't wifom, of course. Still, the simplest explanation is that Taly is mafia in group C, and Cheeky is arguing around that.

[Dunnstral]

So two birds 1 stone if we go Amy it flips Taly game 1 and Amy will flip game 2.

Okay Dunn is right, you’re not arguing anything in good faith right now. I think it’s beyond obvious I’m not scum in either games A or B and I know I’m not your buddy.

My vote stays.

There is no reason to think that you are not scum in game B.

[Dunnstral]

Group A

Cheeky | Dunnstral
Taly | Queen
Amy Dunne | MegAzumarill

Group B

Cheeky | Queen
Not_Mafia | MegAzumarill
Taly | Amy Dunne

Group C

Amy Dunne | Queen
Taly | Dunnstral
Not_Mafia | MegAzumarill

[Dunnstral]

Is that correct?

[Dunnstral]

If you vote for Not_Mafia instead of Meg, the same thing happens except Meg is left alive in game A. It means there are less flips at once in case we need to reevaluate.

Not that I'm advocating for this pairing.

[Dunnstral]

If you guys are doing Meg I would prefer the elimination happen in just group B and not groups A or C right now

[Dunnstral]

I am not voting for you

[Dunnstral]

Amy game A, Meg + Queen or Dunn Game B.

Somehow I don't think it's me in game B

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Queen
Can we do the obvious game C solve now?
It feels pretty clear cut to me

Why is this obvious?

VOTE: Cheeky game A
VOTE: Meg game B
VOTE: Queen game C

This might be better since the way Meg pushed Taly in our PT, doesn’t really fit if Taly’s her buddy, so it’s probably Cheeky then.

Votes don't work like this

Also what made you go from Amy is scum in B to Amy is scum in A pre-megA-scumclaim

They always thought Amy was scum in A at least

[Dunnstral]

I still think redtea elim has a good chance of producing scum in at least 1 game.

[Dunnstral]

Group A

Cheeky | Dunnstral
Taly | Queen
Amy Dunne | MegAzumarill

Group B

Cheeky | Queen
Taly | Amy Dunne

Group C

Amy Dunne | Queen
Taly | Dunnstral
Not_Mafia | MegAzumarill

[Dunnstral]

I think it's amy in group B. why do you guys think it is queen?

[Dunnstral]

I'm ready to here some cases here.
I haven't really been focusing this game because I was busy with B/C.

I voted redtea up to 3 votes, which would be a strange move if I were scum in group a.

Unfortunately, Cheeky was scum in group c and so had a reason to not vote, so it is unclear if they are scum or if they are town in group A. There is not much else to go off of.

[Dunnstral]

That's just a sample pm

[Dunnstral]

Cheeky give us a case on me or Amy.
If not Dunnstrall you should hammer

Why do you think Cheeky over Amy?

[Dunnstral]

(I do think it is one of those two)

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

[Dunnstral]

Unfortunately no