Newbie 2082 - Game Over

[Val89]

Are you two serious?

Greeting, particulary. That's three bolded lines that indicate very clearly he understands that scum knowing who the second PR is is extermely anti-town, while embeliishing those lines with a lot of words for "I'm nto the PR you are looking for".

I'm not sure what I make of implosion coming in and commenting on that analysis, and potentially inducing others to eliminate themselves from the pool, too. Please don't.

Igor may well have done a whoopsie, but leave it at that, please.

[Val89]

I think this is as good a place as any to start while I catch up.

Contrary to implosion, I think his jump to setup speculation was obviously anti-town, and using it a reason to townread something is fishy in itself.

VOTE: implosion

[Val89]

I am unsure how I am supposed to respond to both of you without engaging in the exact anti-town discussion my post was intended to help avoid.

In any case, having read through the game a little closer, I find myself liking Greeting less than I do implosion. I'm not entirely satisfied by the 'eh, maybe I'm WIFOMing away the fact I am the PR, and maybe Greeting is too' explanation - I'm less concerned about what you've said, and more what it currently unsaid but might become said by other slots if we allow the impression this "here's what I think you should do if you are our Doc/JK/FN" discussion is fair game.

I do however, largely finding myself with the reads given, with the exception of Greeting; and I found him asking the exact question I asked myself when reading Greetings readslist at 97. While I disagree with the Greeting read, I don't think the reasons given are unreasonable, even if I don't buy them as sufficent to overide the scum pings I've gotten from that slot.

Overall, despite my initial gut reaction to that slot, and the quick sheep by igor, I find myself changing my mind on that slot on a closer read, and there is enough there to actually call it a decent townlean.

The discussion around the setup is a stand out, and I'm not sure I buy the fact that someone who has been so clear about the other PR not making themselves know can struggle to understand the point I am making about it also being anti-town for the pool to be narrowed down in anyway. I also disliked the reason given for the initial igor vote, which was...well, nothing. "I’m suspicious of igorsprite. They really don’t sound like a townie." and "ehhh. Check their posts and see for yourself." isn't a justification, and I have checked, and I don't see anything obvious that would have induced me to have voted there at that point.

I'm also trying to figure out what prompted 97, as well. It doesn't appear like anyone was actually concerned about a chaotic thought process, and it comes off as a little pre-emptive.

I have some things to say about Thyn as well, but this one is my strongest scumread at present, so that's where my vote is going.

VOTE: Greeting

[Val89]

No, I am sorry, MafMan; but speculating on what setups we could be in across columns; and thereby, in the absence of WIFOM, essentially claiming VT

abolsutely is

anti-town and worthy of shade.

I don't want to draw attention to this any further than nessacary, but there is no way I can allow the idea that Val is wrong and it's OK to indulge in this to persit.

It is anti-town. End of. This is a hill I will die on if nessacary.

[Val89]

If it needs spelling out, for the benefit of slots who will hopefully read this whole exchange before commenting, so be it. There are 9 slots; One is Igor, who has claimed, 2 are mafia, who know who the other is. That leaves 6 slots.

Our other PR knows exactly what the setup is now, with Igors claim.

While it isn't fully conclusive, given the fact there could be an element of WIFOM, sitting here and speculating that we could be in column A, or alternatively, maybe column B, indicates you don't know which column we are in and thus are not that PR. Now the pool is reduced to 5. If MafMen calling me pointing this out as perfectly acceptable induces just

one other

slot to "gave their own opinions on what pr should do in each setup", then suddenly that pool is down to 4, and so on.

It might not be an exact science, but scum can certainly glean some clues, and those are clues they otherwise would not have if we just SHUT OUR DAMN MOUTHS.

I don't think any of the "opinions" or advice, or whatever it is that have been given are anything that even the greenest of newbie couldn't figure out on their own, if they are in the position of deciding what to do with a night action after the lim today. It's not helping them, it's only helping scum.

[Val89]

Right; Let me be absolutely crystal clear here.

If you agree with this pair, and that I am misrepresenting this issue, and that it is perfectly fine as town to speculate on what column we might be in, and that I'm doing this 'misrepresentation' because I am scum, you can signal that agreement by VOTING ME.

DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, ENGAGE IN ANY ALTERNATIVE SPECULATION YOURSELF UNTIL THIS IS SORTED

You can do so after, once this situation is resolved one way or another if you still agree with these two and think it will help town.

Not to mention that your thesis contradicts your earlier vote on me. If I'm scum then why would I be doing this analysis here and not in the scum thread? If I'm "clumsy town" who gives out clues to the scums then why are you voting for me?

Scum already which column we are in. The problem I have with you both, and it only increases the more you try and drive us down this rabbit hole and try and confuse what is a very clear cut issue, is that by openly discussing what you think should happen if it happens to be a JK, or if it happens to be a Doc, or a FN, is you run the risk of inducing other slots to ALSO do so. You can sit there and try and an wave it away with WIFOM, and say "Well, actually maybe I am the other PR, and maybe theoretically I went to the trouble of posting all these walls and imploring all the other slots not to claim today and explaining why that was bad knowing that nobody would because I'm that PR, and I drew all this attention to myself in order to paradoxically hide myself", but if your ARE town, scum still can now go and pick over your posts tonight and have a discussion about how likley that is or not, when they

would simply not have had any clues at all

had you not said anything in the first place. Again, I am concerned about other slots being induced to comment, other slots that scum can perhaps draw inferences as to how likley they are to be actually WIFOMing based on experiance or whatever.

It's quite simple. People listen to you, and start running thier mouths, scum get info they wouldn't otherwise have and get to make a judgment call on who is WIFOMing and who isn't. They listen to me, they don't. If people think I'm running some sort of scam here, they can vote me, as long as they don't buy your argument that this is OK to speculate about, because it isn't.

But here is thing, I think at least one of you already knows that, and you are scum, and you were hoping that by speculating, you might get pseudo, or Thyn, or whomever to do the same and glean some info you might not already have.

[Val89]

I don't know how to comment on this argument, nor should I

No, you shouldn't.

Let's hope everyone else follows your lead here and doesn't buy into the idea I'm misrepresenting the issue and it's OK to comment; whether that idea is being advanced here by scum or simply silly town. We can establish which it is as we go.

[Val89]

Igorsprite's claim is also open for interpretation. They could be lying, but I (and I suppose the other players too) am choosing to believe them, because no one so far has counterclaimed.

[Val89]

For the advoidance of doubt; that speculation also extends to whether or not you beleive Igors claim, or if and when a CC might come.

DO NOT follow his lead here and make comments like this.

[Val89]

The bolded sentence reads "Scum already which column we are in". Not "scum already know what game setup we have".

What was that you were saying about strawmen?

This has to be deliberate at this point, right?

[Val89]

Consider this

intent to hammer

if MafMen ever reaches E-1 at any point today.

[Val89]

They already knew this at the very start of the game though?

Correct. Is this a new strawman now?

[Val89]

Which bit of that history convinced you?

[Val89]

As I expected.

That's the second time in seven pages a read has amounted to "well, it's obvious, isn't it? Just..all of it" without anything concrete.

[Val89]

True, you "using logic" to "figure out the gamestate" (alongside the comments regaridng igors claim), and more importantly,

opening the door for others to do so

is a big part of it, but don't think for a second I'm going to allow you to reframe my case as being that exclusively.

I also disliked the reason given for the initial igor vote, which was...well, nothing. "I’m suspicious of igorsprite. They really don’t sound like a townie." and "ehhh. Check their posts and see for yourself." isn't a justification, and I have checked, and I don't see anything obvious that would have induced me to have voted there at that point.

I'm also trying to figure out what prompted 97, as well. It doesn't appear like anyone was actually concerned about a chaotic thought process, and it comes off as a little pre-emptive.

[Val89]

Why

did you post 97? What prompted you to say that?

[Val89]

An unusually quick change of mind I had.

Fine. But that was already self-evident. Anyone looking at your previous posts could see you had changed your mind. Nobody asked you about it.

Why the need draw attention to your own 'chaotic thought processes'. Where you concerned if you didn't pass comment, it would come off as scummy?

[Val89]

While we are on the subject of Thynhith, I have a bit of additional context for that slot.

People have correctly deduced there was a bit of background tension between Thyn and the previous occupant of my slot. I was also in that game they played together, and won as scum.

Post 50 is interesting, because the justification that was given, that another slot had given a TMI read on the basis of exactly 3 posts, was precisely the same fake-justification, albeit more verbosely, I gave for scumreading his Mason partner. You may want to have a look at the exchange I had (link) on the issue, and in fact, Thyn's approach to that game more widely, because I am getting a very different vibe to his play this time around. That also applies to the "be careful not to hammer yet unless you mean to" concern at 82, another post Greeting describes as "very towny", which again, was an interaction scum!me had with Thyns slot in that game.

Thyn couldn't predict, of course, that I would end up replacing into this game, and it seems faily plausable to me that, having just lost a game to scum, he may well attempt to replicate that scum game he had seen work so well when he rolled scum himself. My read on greeting is stronger presently, but these are all reason I'm not townreading Thyn on the basis of those posts. In fact, given the vibe is markedly different to that last town!Thyn game, I am scumleaning that slot.

[Val89]

Well, let's just shut this down right now, shall we.

It's not an outlandish theory at all. It has borne out in a previous game I played in (and lost!), and have no desire to repeat.

I am refering to Newbie 2073, which catboi also played in. There, someone fake-claimed Mason (in fact a TOWN made that fake claim, if you can beleive that), and just after I left the thread, 4 slots (including scum) managed to talk themselves out of the true PR pool by commenting on that claim and speculating on what it meant for the setup, even after I had warned them against it; and sure enough, one of our true PRs was quickly NKd from the remaining slots that night.

I have no desire to see that, or anything remotely like it, repeated.

[Val89]

@Micc: Greeting is also voting my slot, as of 169

[Val89]

I am trying to figure out how to justify him being town to Val

Fair warning: Whilst he is sprouting stuff like "Val is either scum, or he is cheating", whilst accusing me of espousing 'outlandish theories' in the same breath, I think you'll have your work cut out on that one.

[Val89]

More so than the "He's either scum, or he is an unregistered hydra" false dichotomy?

[Val89]

I'd like you to take a step back and think about why Val would be playing this way if he's scum. What does he gain from doing it?

Unfortuntely, I think you are wasting you time with this one, too. He has already demostrated he knows what you mean here, but only applies it when considering another scummy slot.

When it comes to Thynhith, posts like 50, 82, 85 are very towny tbf. Mafia, especially newbie mafia do not put themselves at risk like that.

Do we also honestly believe he actually doesn't understand what he is doing when doubling down and making posts like 198? I don't.

[Val89]

why are you guys still talking about me ? .-.

If you "you guys", you mean "greeting", it's because he is hoping people will comment and make clear they beleive your claim, and thus immeadately ruling themselves out as that one town-aligned player that can immediately tell a tracker claim is fake, in 7 out of 9 combinations.

He has ironically made my point for me, and yet still continues. He probably suspects he will draw suspision if he backs down now, so he is doubling down in the hope other slots with be drawn into this exchange and his partner at least gets something out of this.

[Val89]

Point in evidence.

I rest my case.

[Val89]

Not claiming VT, by the way

[Val89]

Focusing on me atp would be derailing town. I would advise everyone to look at Val/Greeting more carefully.

Honestly I consider the derail to be doing more arguing about Greeting vs Val right now.

Right on the money again. Put me down for a frog townread.

I think there is plenty to bite into already to make your mind up where you fall on the Me/Greeting debate. I note that Thyn wants to encourage everyone to look carefully without actually taking a stance himself. He wants everyone to look over here, without commiting himself, and describes shifting focus elsewhere as a "derailment". I don't think shifting attention elsewhere, even temporarily, can be consider a derailment, unless Thyn thinks there should be a train now barreling down the tracks towards the lim of either myself or Greeting today, and if he has taken such a strong stance, where is the vote? I don't think his vote is doing much where it is at the moment.

Sorting that slot is a useful excerise and basically saying 'oh no, keep looking at these two, don't look elsewhere, that would be a mistake' pings me hard, particulary if (and I don't think this is the case at the moment, but I recognise I don't get it correct all the time) implosion ends up on the right side of history, and it does prove TvT. He also seems to suggest that I am 'insisiting on getting stuck on a seemingly less important point', and that I could be motivated to 'trip up town and control the thread', but no, let's all continue to focus on that point, shall we?

That's a heavily scummy post to my eyes; but, I guess there isn't much to be done presently if he is going on V/LA.

[Val89]

Thinking more widely, while I don't like either of

MafMen

nor

Thyn

individually, I don't beleive Thyn and MafMen are both scum. I don't think, if I am right about Thyn drawing from my own scum game, you would point that fake-TMI read towards your partner. One of the two is town, and just not playing in a manner I'm reading as town. I'm sure that will resolve with time.

I'm happy townreading

implosion

and

frogsfrogs

, at this point, and I also consider

pseduoAritstotle

a townlean at this moment, although it isn't very strong. That leaves

catboi

, who sits at null, and once I've had an oppotunity to establish a read there, and I can firm up the read on Aristotle, I think that leaves a PoE that leaves me in good shape going forward.

[Val89]

Val's tunnel and points against greeting regarding setup nonsense are mostly lousy and don't really make any good reason for Greetign being actually scum

"Mostly lousy". That's interesting.

I don't think there is much room for ambiguity on this one - either you are with MafMen and Greeting, and think it's perfectly fine to speculate on the setup and pseudoclaim VT, as long as it can be handwaved way as possibly being a bit of WIFOM, or you understand why it isn't.

I would have thought since you played in 2073, and you probably remember the eventual alignment of the slot that started that business (although, I do understand if you would also prefer to forget that game ever took place!) you would understand why I have taken an issue with it here.

As it happpens, Greeting has now explicitly claimed VT.

@Catboi:

Do you think a) that's a good play, and b) it's alignment-indicative in any way, and why?

[Val89]

Well, if we are going to open that door; I've noticed that both you and MafMen are routinely hiding your online status.

Given that it appears activity-based meta is something you think worth pointing out, are you hoping to hide something that way?

[Val89]

Well, perhaps there is some special circumstances I am unaware of, but I noticed you and MafMen were the only players in this game that don't appear in the "Registered Users", despite obviously being online because you are posting. I inferred from that you were both routinely hiding your status, but I accept there might be another explanation.

I noticed because I have also saw frogfrog online often without posting; but I've seen igorsprite do so just as often, and I note you haven't brought that up at all. Is that because it doesn't help sell ythe narrative you are trying to weave around this?

I found it odd you were trying to make something of this, when firstly, I have never really considered it indicative of anything, but if it was, then a slot that was hiding thier own online status trying to draw an adverse inference from the online status of players who were openly displaying it seemed a little suspect; but if there is an alternative explanation as to why you don't appear, then I recind.

[Val89]

i'm town and i hide my status, so i don't think that is a valid point

That fact that it is non-alignment indicative is exactly my point. You do appear on the list of registered users online quite often without posting, however. I wonder if we are talking about different things.

In any case, I think there is plenty to suspect Greeting for without the need to worry about activity patterns or the like. I think the fact he brought it up at all was a simple attempt to try and hang something, anything, to cover the fact his case against me is based purely on OMGUS; but he has already said as much in 225.

[Val89]

Sure, self-hammer play is controversial, but it doesn't make sense for me to do that while being scum.

It certainly makes sense for you to

threaten

to do so as scum at this point, early, when there isn't much of a wagon building on you.

It makes sense because you can then go ahead and make this exact post - but the logic present only comes in to play if you ACTUALLY get put to the test. I would perhaps buy it if you were at E-2, or something, but you aren't, and I think you are trying to bank on the fact that it might buy you just enough unjustified towncred to avoid getting there.

You acknoledge that the play is anti-town, because you say it's worth it this time - I can only assume because you are just so

sure

that I am scum, and a scum worth taking out on D2, even at the expense of your own life - and yet, when questioned, your reasons for such amount to what? You "really didn't like my enterance".

I just don't see how that's a reasonable conclusion, and thus I think this isn't about me at all; it's about you, and trying to buy some towncred as soon as you come under pressure. If you aren't scum, then you running around acting like some sort of loose cannon and compounding the mistakes already made this game to reduce the chances of a town victory; this self-hammer malarky, the early VT claim, the wild and totally off-base reads, etc and frankly we can do without you anyhow.

I'm willing to put this to the test; which is why my vote remains where it is. Anyone care to join me?

[Val89]

this may be arguing semantics but once again val it is not setup speculation

Well, if it's a semantic problem, what would you prefer to call it?

My issue is that saying "we could have a JK, or an FN, or a Doc, at these probabilities" (and I say the correct word for that is 'speculation', but I am open to alternatives) is saying "I am not in a position to CC Igors claim" before everyone who could have CCd that claim checked in; and further more implying that, if Igors claim was un-CCd, he doesn't know the pairing that goes with it, was essentially a huge clue to scum that he was a VT, and might prompt others to give clues as well, and that is anti-town.

Now he have an explicit VT claim; so my point has been basically proven.

What would call that, if you think setup speculation defines something else?

[Val89]

For the newer players amongst us, if this wasn't clear - apart from the obvious fact that it reduces the townspace for our PRs to hide amogst; the other reason claiming or hinting you are a VT this early is scummy as hell is because it sets up the excuse as to why a scum player doesn't die at night.

In normal circumstances, if a player you might expect mafia to eliminate; because they are widely townread, for example, is constantly surviving the NK, you might start to draw conclusions from that, and scum want to have something in place to point to to explain why they are still alive on D4 or whatever. In this case, that will be "well, they want to take out the PRs, obviously, so why would they shoot me?" rather than the actual reason being mafia obvious don't NK mafia.

[Val89]

Sorry, but that's bullshit. It's basically the only defense that would fly.

You are trying to tell me if you are scum, you would consider shooting a claimed VT with 2 PRs outstanding, unless you thought there was a chance they were lying?

[Val89]

Yes, and if a slot is Universally townread, or has a repuation deserving of fearkilling, the only reasonable excuse when town start wondering "Why the hell are you still alive? is "Well, scum must have decided this is the situation it's worth PR hunting instead".

That was exactly my point.

[Val89]

What strange world have I woke up in when the newbies are consistently making more sense then the supposed SEs.

Can some other people weigh in here, please, because I am starting to doubt my reality.

Are these two talking out their arses, or have I taken a blow to the head or something?

[Val89]

Yeah, I agree, but all the takes he gives that make me go "What the fuck?"; you seem to end up defending or complaining about semantics or whatever.

I wonder if there is some of sort of comprehension issue between the two of us and we are debating two different issues without realising.

[Val89]

Problem is, I'm not entirely sure what MafMens' stance actually

is

at present.

A claimed tracker at this stage is far from ideal, but if you are town, and right not I think that's such a huge ask for me to beleive, you running around basically rolecoping yourself for scum, and throwing around such wild and anti-town plays with every other breath isn't helping very much, is it?

[Val89]

Maybe it would be completely unbelievable to you, perhaps, but it only takes a slot or two to buy it - and it's much better than having NO excuse, right?

[Val89]

was this so called wild and antitown play me disagreeing with your takes on greeting?

I wasn't refering to you, I was replying to Greeting there. Sorry for not making it clear.

If the two of you are town and we all stay adamant, in combination with a claimed Tracker, then this game is lost and tbf we deserve it.

"A claimed tracker at this stage is far from ideal, but if you (Greeting) are town, and right now I think that's such a huge ask for me to beleive, you (Greeting) running around basically rolecoping yourself for scum, and throwing around such wild and anti-town plays with every other breath isn't helping very much, is it?"

Better?

[Val89]

Maybe it would be completely unbelievable to you, perhaps, but it only takes a slot or two to buy it - and it's much better than having NO excuse, right?

and thats where my problems lies
this level of theory crafting for scum!greeting to have employed a strategy thats only better than having nothing is nonsense
not to mention it is a huggeeeeeeeeee ass stretch

Nah, sorry, this shouldn;t be contraversial at all. I don't even know

what

, nevermind why we are debating any more.

It's not "does a VT claim survive until late game", it's "if you are still around in late game as scum, how do you defend yourself?" He's saying claiming VT early prepares a narrative. That's what I'm reading, at least.

It's clear other slots are getting it, so I am just going to chalk this up to you misunderstanding what I've driving at.

[Val89]

Then, no, MafMen, clearly you haven't understood. I'm not saying that's why scum!greeting has claimed VT.

Alright, let's try it this way. What good (for town) has Greeting claiming VT at this point done, in your eyes?

[Val89]

anyway the claim does nothing for town

OK. If you mean nothing positive for town, I agree. Progress.

What does it do for scum?

[Val89]

it does what you proposed yes

Then what the fuck are we doing arguing here, and why the hell is it taking us doing it in babysteps like this to come to a common understanding?

Is this part 2 of you calling me "gross and disingenous" because it turns out you didn't like the phrase I used to describe it?

but crazy thought, what about every other reality where greeting is just town making a blunder?

That isn't what you've been saying all this time, is? If you had said "Yeah, Val is right, Greeting is hurting town's prospects here, but I just think he is silly town, not scum", we would have been having a totally different conversation this entire time.

If a player is acting in a way that hurts town and benefits scum, particulary a player who tells us the've played about 30 mafia games, and still doesn't recognise what they are doing is anti-town; then I think it's incumbent on YOU, MafMen, to tell the rest of the field why it's more likely that player is town, and the player pointing it out is scum; as you originally infered when you voted me for doing so.

[Val89]

I would like to hear from Catboi re: my 232 before the day ends at the very least, please.

This should go without saying, but just in case, please don't go hammering here before Thyn returns to the thread. 4 days is plenty, and we still have slots with only a handful of posts to work with.

[Val89]

That's funny, because I've been labouring all this time under the impression you've spent pages arguing that what Greeting has been doing is perfectly acceptable, and that I'm running some sort of gross and disingenuous mafia scam for taking issue with it.

Let's try and back up a little then.

Are you townreading Greeting, and if so, what makes you think he is more likley to town who is torpeding our chances over just actually being scum?

Why did you vote me, and why have you now unvoted?

I think I find it a lot easier to correctly sort your slot if I actually know what your positions actually are, and if any progression there looks genuine. I want to make sure I have at least a half decent handle on this because like I said before, I think you and Thynhith aren't scum together and Thyn is currently liable to be today's lim.

[Val89]

Without intent to hammer, probably not a good play, but probably >rand town as frustrated early VT claims tend to go (although also not as meaningful with a tracker claimed in the open)

Pardon? Why is is

less

meaningful with a tracker claim already?

[Val89]

the issue came with you misrepresenting greeting, which is why i initially placed the vote because i thought it was fake asf
i realized i pretty much agreed with you on what theyre doing is harmful after the whole "ill self hammer" shenanigan and them outright claiming vt thus i unvoted

But, if you pretty much agree with me that what theyre doing is harmful, WHY was it a misrepresention to point that out at the start?

Am I right in thinking that the actual problem is here is that you agree that is was harmful, but you thought it wasn't alignment-indicative; and thus me pushing it made me scum, but you've since changed your mind on that score?

I understand the position catboi is taking, at least, that he thinks Greeting is making bad town plays, but isn't scum, and that me thinking the opposite makes me scum; and that if Thyn is scum, then I am his partner busing him. That might be total crap, but it's the sort of thing that everyone can understand what position is being taken, and will start to resolve with a flip or two.

If you are on the same page as catboi, then at least there is a logical, understanable stance we can work from, but saying I was misrepresenting the situation, but you agree with me, is just ???

[Val89]

OK, I think I get it now. You take the phrase "setup speculation" to mean something different, and you thought I was using the phrase deliberately incorrectly, and that made me scum; but you've since changed your mind. Greeting is also town playing badly, not scum. Is that right?

If so, where do you think we ought be looking now?

[Val89]

Why frogs and implosion? Those are both townreads to me, or is that why?

How are you feeling about catboi, presently?

[Val89]

And I'm against voting out Val, at least D1, because his align will be much more obvious in later days.
In fact it seems you're avoiding voting Val, despite declaring him to be disingenuous, thin and repetitive.

Thyn, what has made you decide that catboi is avoiding voting me for different reasons that you have elected to do so yourself?

[Val89]

A wagon on you is viable, one on val is not

What makes you say a wagon on me wouldn't be viable?

I generally try to discourage preflip associations on day 1 in newbie games, but my townreads this game are decent enough that I have to start thinking in that manner.

Have you given us those more-decent-then-usual townreads, yet?

[Val89]

Because as it is the only one who expressed any sort of interest in voting you is Greeting whereas most others think you're town, not really hard to read the room.

Except that isn't true, is it? That's why I asked the question in the first place. MafMen

has

voted me today, and although he has unvoted he was pretty explicit that wasn't because he started townreading me. In fact, as far as I recall, the only slots that have said they are townreading me are Implosion and Frogsfrogs. That leaves 6 slots who either have explicitly shaded me, or said they are on the fence, or not mentioned me at all. You only need 5 for a lim.

It's pretty suspect, and it makes me wonder if you actually beleive what you are saying. I think you know the people who haven't come out with a read on me yet may indeed end up townreading me, because you know I am town, and acting as such.

I'l be honest I threw out the D1 herosolve, even though I'm generally against those things in principle

I generally try to discourage preflip associations on day 1 in newbie games

Why do you ordinarary discourage this?

[Val89]

That...makes no sense. If as scum I believe someone is too townread to be a vialable elim, I concede the townread and move on (also, how would I possibly know that someone who isn't me is going to be townreading you in the future?). My motives here are...what, exactly?

Wrong. Conceeding the townread reduces your pool of available mislims. Better to keep the shade flowing early so you have options for later days once you've got a couple of NKs. This is scum motivation 101.

Wasn't the main thrust of implosions argument against Thyn, the one you said you found compelling, was because he was keeping his options open in that regard? You can't have it both ways.

[Val89]

I feel reasonably okayish about implo (who was my second early gut townread) and MafMen, pseudoaristotle is probtown, I think Greeting is towny although that one is the shakiest.

The strongest read there is "reasonably okayish". One probtown, another shaky.

You don't mention MafMen as a townread either; and whenever you have spoken about them, you've taken great pains to explain you don't know why you feel anything about them, giving you scope to swing on that one, too.

Yeah, "keeping your options open" is EXACTLY what I would say you are doing.

[Val89]

Well, like I said in my previous, I have been holding off hammering because I wanted to get a handle on catboi, and try and firm up my read on pseudo before day end.

But no, you are perfectly correct, Thyn. I do have a read on catboi now, and it doesn't look like like pseudo will be around much, so...

intent to hammer

[Val89]

VOTE: Thynhith

[Val89]

Some IRL issues have come up. While I do have something to say, I hope you will forgive me if I delay doing so until tomorrow.

[Val89]

There is a fair bit to unpack from today's discussion, but to start with, if it wasn't obvious, the read I had made on catboi at the time I hammered yesterday was a strong scumread, and I think a good case for scum!catboi can be made on the basis of page 15 alone, never mind all the stuff that happened today.

That page starts with him expressing a sentiment that Greeting had also expressed earlier in the day - that we would like to get rid of me, but didn't think a wagon on me was 'viable', which as I pointed out, I think vastly overstated the degree to which I was being townread (which wasn't all that much - 2 slots, the rest either being silent or shading me), and frankly, why does town care at that point anyhow? The second, and more telling response, is how he explains why he is indulging in pre-flip associatives in this game when he usually discourages the practise - that he has more decent than usual townreads. On questioning, however, it's clear that doesn't hold up, and it's...quietly dropped? I know I ended the day with the hammer about 5 hours later, after it was obvious that's all we were getting from catboit, but we ended the day with the strongest townread from catboit being that implosion was "reasonably okish" (and given who he is pushing now, you have to shake you head a bit at that one, too!), while also sheeping implosions argument that Thyn had been trying to keep his options open with respect to scumreading half the game, and also him trying to tell us that he had better than normal townreads this game to the degree he was happier to speculate on pre-flips D1.

I think, even absent the stuff with igor, I would have been voting there today, but absolutely nothing I have seen today gives me pause. Igor told a lie, that much is evident, but there are two possible lies - the one he admits to, that he faked a guilty result on a slot he thought (and to my mind, with good reason to think) scummy, and the second, that he was faking his entire claim. I get the impression that catboi has been doing his best to conflate the two.

As an example, take the game he links at 529. He says, but only when asked to post the game, not when it's first brought up in 524 that the circumstances are

slightly

different, but there are not, they are

widely

different. Igor claimed tracker when there was zero good cause for him to do so on page 5, in his 11th post of the game at a time there was minimal pressure on his slot, and the last vote him had been specifically invited. If that is a fake claim coming from scum, not only did he get lucky, but he rolled the dice at a time there was simply no need to. Surely catboi is smart and experienced enough to know the difference, and I don't buy that town!catboi would bring that up, even if he DOES beleive igor is fakeclaiming as scum, and he did get lucky and take that risk when it wasn't needed, without explaining that. 'Oh, this has happened in a newbie game before' is a huge overreach and one I think has to be deliberate.

Then there is the shitpush on implosion. He wants us to buy that implosion is making a bad-faith, non-genueine push on

him

, while also making posts like this:

could make a snide comment about the proofreading fail on that post being scum-indicative, but that's over the top and i don't actually believe that

How else I am expected to take a post like that, other than "please give me towncred for not using something I don't actually think is NAI to push implosion, but I'm still going to point out the thing I think is NAI, and maybe someone else will think it's scum-indicative." That's one example. 484 is another. I think someone is making a bad-faith shitpush here, but it isn't implosion.

VOTE: Catboi

[Val89]

Cards on the table, there is no world in which I will be convinced to vote either Frogs or Implosion today. Post 421 could have basically have been written by myself; the only thing it appears we disagree on at all is the degree to which Greeting is suspicious, and it's pretty much the same story as implosion. This is something that's been consistent righjt through the game (42,102, 218, 246, 283,472) are all examples of places frogs was right on the money and totally instep with my own thinking before I had come out and said what I was thinking, in a game when a lot of bullshit has been thrown around and by slots that should as least have the experiance to know better. I could make a comparable list for implosion, too, but the same basic deal applies, although there is a more fundermental disagreement there in that he thinks Greeting is town.

Could those townreads have been brought and paid for by clever scum who simply know the right things to say to mirror how I think about the game? I guess there is a tiny, remote possiblity, but to my eyes it's hugely less likley that that is the situation we are in - that basicaly all the other town slots in this game (Greeting, MafMen and Catboi would all have to town, as well as Thyn, in that scenario) have simulatanously and independantly acted in way that I have found suspicious at one time or another and I've been sucessfully pocketed having not been in the game from the start. I think it's far far more likley they are both town; job done.

I still think Greeting looks good for scum alongside catboi, but MafMen is the other possibility, particulary given the interactions frogs pointed out happened yesterday, and how they have engaged enough other in the other direction today. Why exactly do town want to give a slot they find scummy af "breathing space"??

[Val89]

In here you have a previous game where you expressed belief that someone claiming VT early, while anti-town, is also lacking in scum motivation. And yet, in THIS game that was your justification for pushing Greeting as scum, talking about how claiming VT "isn't hekpful". How do you square these beliefs?

Yeah. That game is 2074. I (and you) saw the scum utility I didn't see at that point in 2076.

I wasn't pushing Greeting for claiming VT. I've been very clear my problem with him was the fact that it could well induce other slots to give clues they were VT and eliminate themselves from the PR pool, something that was escabated when he continously denied that it WAS anti-town and it was fine for them to do so. I saw the damage that could do in 2076.

2076 > 2074. Any further questions?

The desperation here is palpable.

[Val89]

It might not be an exact science, but scum can certainly glean some clues, and those are clues they otherwise would not have if we just SHUT OUR DAMN MOUTHS.

The problem I have with you both, and it only increases the more you try and drive us down this rabbit hole and try and confuse what is a very clear cut issue, is that by openly discussing what you think should happen if it happens to be a JK, or if it happens to be a Doc, or a FN, is you run the risk of inducing other slots to ALSO do so

It's quite simple. People listen to you, and start running thier mouths, scum get info they wouldn't otherwise have and get to make a judgment call on who is WIFOMing and who isn't. They listen to me, they don't.

True, you "using logic" to "figure out the gamestate" (alongside the comments regaridng igors claim), and more importantly, opening the door for others to do so is a big part of it,

I am refering to Newbie 2073, which catboi also played in. There, someone fake-claimed Mason (in fact a TOWN made that fake claim, if you can beleive that), and just after I left the thread, 4 slots (including scum) managed to talk themselves out of the true PR pool by commenting on that claim and speculating on what it meant for the setup, even after I had warned them against it; and sure enough, one of our true PRs was quickly NKd from the remaining slots that night.

I have no desire to see that, or anything remotely like it, repeated.

If you "you guys", you mean "greeting", it's because he is hoping people will comment and make clear they beleive your claim, and thus immeadately ruling themselves out as that one town-aligned player that can immediately tell a tracker claim is fake, in 7 out of 9 combinations.

You just so happened to miss all of those posts while going through my ISO looking for 282?

I haven't even looked through the entire thing myself, but I think my point is sufficiently made already.

People don't say "I think Val is town", twice, while continuing to shade that town player unless you need other slots to wonder about the rest of said players reads after you flip red.

In other words, this lends further evidence to us looking at a catboi + greeting/mafmen scum team.

I have to step away again, but I'll go on record and say I have no problem with a catboi lim happening while I am away. This game is pretty much solved to my mind.

[Val89]

546.

Desperatation intensifies.

[Val89]

'Hell, might as well go all in on spreading as much shade as possible since I'm probably getting limmed here. UnCCd PR claims, slots I've said I think are town but I don't like, anyone is fair game'.

[Val89]

To be fair, I took a step back, because due to a very surprising coincidence the exact thing that Val89 was warning town about happened - we have a fake claim.

That's the conclusion you have come to, is it; that's Igors claim is fake?

If so, why was there no kill last night? You really think a scumteam with Igor on it has

Igor

submit the kill??

[Val89]

I'm a little confused here, catboi.

Are you still doubting igors claim, or no? If you are still suggesting you are harbouring doubts, I'll ask you the same question I asked Greeting: Why no kill last night?

I would have thought the scum utility to casting aspirsions on the tracker claim was obvious. If we are in A2, and I think it's pretty obvious we are here, as long as the roleblocker is alive, the tracker is useless as a tracker, and can't prove themselves either. The only utility that PR has currently is as a pseudo-innocent child, and if you can successfully cast aspersions on that too, well...

This reminds an awful lot of the time at the end of day 1 you tried to tell us there was no scum motivation to not concededing a townread, and that was patently false, too.

[Val89]

I am not voting or pushing igorsprite as scum currently, no. I am not entirely confident in that read but his responses today (irl day, not game day), have overall felt believable

I wasn't asking you if you are pushing him as scum currently, I asked if you beleived his tracker claim. Given the fact you say you aren't entirely confident, I would like you to answer the question.

If Igor is scum, why no kill last night? Talk me through how that tallys with Igor being possibly scum for you.

[Val89]

I am not pushing igor as scum currently. I have no reason to discuss this. You are bogging this down with tired pedantry.

No, don't sit there and tell me you have just

no idea

why keeping the mislim pool as wide as possible is +scum. I know full well why scum!catboi would want not to discuss this and try and paint this very applicable point - whether an uncc'dd town PR can be eliminated from the suspect pool on D2 after a no-kill, is what we are talking about here, remember - as "tired pedantry", but town!catboi has every reason to engage here and help settle minds on the issue.

hypothetically in an igor-scum world, the team had him perform the kill and the jailkeeper blocked him last night. It's not that simple.

I take that as a mistype, and you mean "It is that simple". I disagree, I don't think there is any scum team in the world that has Igor submit the kill, particularly when the very last thing that was posting in the thread before the lock was 367, which includes a very clear reminder that it is open to a hypothetical JK to save Igor, and it is obviously something that players are aware said hypothetical JK might chose to do, because Greeting decides to give the unsolicitated advice NOT to do so, there.

Even in the world where the scum team is so inexperianced they decide to let Igor submit the kill, because they don't realise there is a good chance Igor is going to be in jail or think that the theorectical scumpartner has been scumread to the degree they might end up in jail themselves and so Igor better do it, then that speaks a big clue as to who Igors partner could be, or more importantly, who they are unlikley to be; which doesn't really tally with the narrative that you are trying to push in the case that it IS a scum!Igor. Let me be more explicit: You think a {Igor, Implosion} team is possible, given that?

I think it's much more likley that scum were relying on the JK listening to Greeting and doing as he suggested, either because Greeting is scum, or because there were using the fact that advice had been given as a hint to infer what a JK might do there.

The thing is, I think you know all this already, and you don't want to discuss this because you know if you do, other players are going to realise the lengths you are going to to try hold that pool as wide as possible, and also realise that's exactly what scum are trying to do in this scenario.

[Val89]

I am trying to, as best as I can, go about the game rationally and evaluate players logically, making my thought process as apparent as possible. My hope is that even if I am voted out today that my reasoning is thorough enough that it provides a blueprint for town to win the game after I'm gone.

Also Catboi:

No. I won't discuss my reasoning for my lack of confidence on my Igor read. I'm trying to tell you that I am town, but if I do get flipped and I end up being town, you will just have to figure it out for yourself tomorrow because I'm not talking about it now.

See the problem here?

[Val89]

You aren't trying to solve - you are trying to keep the net as wide as possible. I'm not trying to engage in a debate I think I can "win", and the fact you think that's possiblity tells me you know your arguments and logic here aren't exactly sound.

This, whether or not you are prepared to justify reads that might result in elimating suspects from the pool, is a point that is clearly recognised as alignment indicative in both directions. Frogs was given townreads for the speed at which he was prepared to eliminate suspects from the pool 182 (and even if I disagree with the conclusion frogs came to there, I agree his williness to do so was deserving of towncred). In the other direction, you, yourself, sheeped a read on Thyn that was based on him keeping the pool of suspects as wide as possible (229).

You say you want to be read. You say that, even if you get limmed today, you want to leave your thoughts behind to help town find the real scum - but while you say it, you won't actually do it when that's put to the test and you are asked to justify a read that is clearly opposed to how most other slots are reading the evidence.

[Val89]

Like, Val's singlemindedness toward catboi right now is really offputting.
(snip).
I don't understand how someone can be so unwaveringly confident that catboi is scum in the face of the past several pages. I can understand scumreading them in spite of that but I can't understand an unwavering scumread on them.

Admittedly, knowing the balance to strike here has been a little difficult for me, because a lot of what makes me so sure catboi should be the flip today was predicated around discussion of PRs, something I have been very clear I've wanted to advoid. Given that the cat is out of the bag now, I think now is the time to be a little more clear about this. I am not 100% sure catboi is scum, although I am very sure; lets call it 90%, but regardless, I think the gamestate to be such that catboi absolutely should be the flip today.

Firstly, I absolutely 100% beleive Igor's claim. I do NOT beleive that a scum team with Igor in it has Igor make the kill; neither do I beleive the scum team deliberately elected to no-kill - yes, both of those scenarios are

technically

possible, but they make so little sense for any theorectical scumteam, and I've considered them all in my head, that the chances of either are neglibable. I think it's pretty obvious the scumteam targetted Igor for the kill last night, relying on the JK heeding Greetings advice not to protect Igor. That makes Igor town, and it also spews us as being in A2, because otherwise Igor would not have been a threat worth taking the risk in attempting to eliminate N1 in the case the JK took the opposite view to Greeting, as you can see they did.

Catboi's initial defense to the fake guilty was to essentially to say two things - the first was "I wouldn't have reacted this way if I was scum, because I would have known the guilty was fake". I think that is self-evidently rubbish, because how would a scum player act when presented with a guilty they knew had been faked? I think you can do nothing other than act the way catboi did; to act like you don't give a shit would give away the fact you knew it was fake, and thus are scum, if you aren't going to fake claim a PR at that point, so - acting indiginant and suggest the tracker must be scum or otherwise town throwing is all you can do. Catboi himself admitted that town and scum would do the same in 606, so him seeking to rely on it as 'look, I was actually towntelling in my response to this' seemed off.

The second part of the defense was more interesting: "I know who the PR is, and I would have killed them rather than shoot Igor". That part of it did give me pause. I had to go back and evaluate if there was anything that could have reasonably given rise to the beleif they knew who the PR was, and I think it was obvious, even before Igor had said the same, and now catboi said so explicitly, based on how they were interacting with the remaining slots that catboi meant they had read StrangeMatter as the JK, and, reading back, that was mostly likley because they were reading 177 as a PR slip. I am in total agreement, that regardless of if catboi is saying so for towncred, or I am wrong about catboi here, that until this is sorted out, StrangeMatter should say nothing to confirm or deny that belief either way. One thing I

am

sure about, is that catboi genuinely does beleive he has a PR read on StrangeMatter, and thus, whether SM is the JK or not, that absolutely spews SM as town on a scum!Catboi flip, 100%. I don't beleive for a second this here has been faked, and if it has, they deserve the win.

I also strongly beleive frogs and implosion to be town. In any case, even if I am wrong, I also don't beleive that catbois attacks today on either Implosion nor frogsfrogs are SvS; and if anyone else has any suspicion that they are, nobody has said as much. That means on a red catboi flip, we have Igor (regardless), SM, Frogsfrogs and Implosion all spewed town, and only two slots remaining the partner could possibly be - Greeting and MafMen. A red flip today means we have time to flip both; in other words, a guarenteed town victory.

I have, in fact, considered the possibility that I am wrong and that catboi is town. The sudden uptick in the level of effort is notable. I have to ask myself whether that is town-indicative, or if something else could be driving it. I am hoping we enter the night with some doubt in the mind of the scum as to whom the second PR is, but if that second PR is either forced or choses to claim today, then we enter a situation where this game could very well turn on whether or not the scum!Roleblocker is alive or not, and I think scum already know this. Even if both PRs are known, they can't kill both in one night. They CAN shoot the JK and Roleblock Igor, but if they hit the wrong slot, or the RBer is flipped today and thus that option isn't open to them, then with smart PR play, we are guarenteed to go into tomorrow with some mechanically-confirmed information; and at least one cleared PR slot. A scum victory in that scenario is going to be a HUGE ask, and I think they know it. I think that not only is catboi scum, I think he is the roleblocker. (I had something more to say here on why I am sure the sort of behavior that has been exhibited towards me in some posts can't be coming from town, but on reflection I think I will leave it until post-game.)

Given that I believe that catboi honestly belevies he has a PR read on SM, I have asked myself if the fact SM is still alive IS indicative of a town!catboi. I conclude not. SM came into the game during the night phase. We have no idea of the timings as to when things were discussed in the scumthread, and when decisions were made as to the night actions. It is possible, perhaps likley, that the decisions were made at a time when, if catboi or others did read that slot as PR at the start of the nigh, then psuedo was expecting to be occupying the slot, and if they DID take 144 as a PR slip, then I think, with all due respect to psuedo, it was probably decided that there was a PR who wasn't really sure what to do, and would likely take Greetings advice for lack of confidence to depart from what an apparently experianced player was representing was the best action to take. In other words, I think there are too many things we don't know about the discussions the scum team had, and more importantly, who was occupying the PA/SM slot at the time they took place, to draw a conclusion on if catboi would or would not have advocated to shoot at that slot.

We're limming whoever we think is most likely to be scum.

At the end of the day, this. That to me is catboi, and by a large margin. A red catboi flip gives us 4 slots spewed town, and even in the unlikley event of a town!catboi, then that gives me something on the SM slot in particular that I think we need to know today going into tonights night phase rather than the Mis-lim and lose we might find ourselves in if we go another direction today and get it wrong.

[Val89]

I meant 144, not 177, in paragraph four.

[Val89]

VOTE: Val89

Which one of you scumbags are going to hammer me then, eh, or are both of you already on this wagon?

[Val89]

That's E-1, by the way, and I am a VT; before someone claims ignorance of that fact.

Pedit: No, lets. We know its catboi, lets flush out the partner.

[Val89]

Well, if that's a thing, my vote is still 'symbolically' on catboi.

[Val89]

Igor, I know you are town. Vote me, please.

[Val89]

You + Greeting or MafMen.

Get it right.

[Val89]

Who, specifically, are you alledging I am trying to 'intimidate', here?

[Val89]

Could you answer my question? A couple of names shouldn't be too hard to whack out, should it. There is a very limited pool of them.

[Val89]

he wants to scare people into not voting him by making them afraid they'll get scumread for doing so

Catboi, who is it you think this applies to, here, from your perspective?

[Val89]

Except that implo was already on my wagon, and you've told us that Igor/SM are the PRs from your perspective, no?

[Val89]

You seem to be floundering around quite a bit trying to explain something that's so "transparent", catboi.

Come on. Explain. If Igor and SM are the PRs from your perspective, why do they worry about getting scumread for having voted me?

[Val89]

You pulling out the word "pedantry" and trying to change your position everytime you are asked to justify your crap logic is incredibly tedious.

This shouldn't be difficult. Apparently, the scum motivation behind my actions is transparent and obvious, and reinforced by frogs too, apparently. It shouldn't be at all difficult to explain in a manner we can all understand and by doing so, shut me down, no?

If you think I'm taking issue with just your wording "like a debate club", then re-word it. I'm pointing out your whole argument is hokum. Show everyone I am wrong and explain.

[Val89]

The facts of the matter are that implo was already on my wagon, and says he jumped off because he didn't want Igor to hammer. That demonstrates an understanding that when I self-voted, I put myself in the clear and obvious danger of Igor dropping the hammer on me there and then, particulary as he was online and saying he was scum reading me.

Igor and SM, are if as you say they are from your perspective, PRs, then why do they give a crap about being scumread by voting for me? Frogs is also supposed to be my obvious partner too, so clearly there is no need for some super-risky play to scare them off from voting for me if I didn't want them to, I could just ask them not to in the PT.

That leaves MafMen, and if you are trying to suggest I put a gaurenteed vote on my wagon for the chance of scaring off a potential one, I'm going to ask you politely to stop trying to patronise us.

[Val89]

Before you go, vote me.

[Val89]

If you trust in your evaluation that I am town, you should still vote me here, frogs. You know we aren't partnered. You know the second I flip, that's going to become clear. I realise that catboi has gone to great pains everytime he says anything about the two of us, to keep hammering the idea home that he thinks we are both scummy individually (because he knows I am flipping town and wants to continue the push on you regardless tomorrow), but I trust the rest of the player list to see through that.

It might be MELO tomorrow, but that doesn't really matter much when there is a clear path to victory following my flip. Catboi has spewed you, implosion, Igor and SM as all town. I think the way he has been treating the game today as if its a ELO situation on his flip makes sense from the perspective that, like I explained, I think he is the roleblocker, and it might well seem like a ELO situation as scum. It would have been preferable to flip catboi today, but I think it's clear today was always going to come down to me or catboi, and the way this will end became clear the moment implosion (who I still think is town) switched from one wagon to the other. The RBer living into tonight does mean we gotten no value from our PRs, but it's still not a total disasater given the amount of info that has been spewed with catboi trying desperately to cling to survival for another day, providing you lim there tomorrow. I don't think we are going to get our catboi flip today, and flipping Greeting when MafMen is the partner would be a disaster too.

I agree with your assesment, that the scum is within {Catboi, Greeting, MafMen}. I don't think {Greeting, MafMen} are the team, because it would have been a super ballsy play for them both to come and stake their claim on the same side of the "it's OK to give scum clues about who isn't a PR here" debate (which I STILL can't beleive was actually a debate) issue on D1 and wait to see if anyone else was buying the fact the sky is green before hand. That means one of the two are town with absolute dogshit reads, and that's going to become clear on my flip - seeing me flip town is going to force whichever of the two it is to reevaluate.

In short, I know it seems paradoxical to vote someone you think is town, but here, it's the play. Vote me.

[Val89]

Well, just lim me then Implosion, and you can get on with it without me. I really don't see what all this handwringing achieves, frankly.

I figured you were already on to catboi with respect to moving in on an easy mislim as far as frogs goes because of your 397. If you are sure about Greeting being town, then they are going to have a wake-up call to reasses everything on seeing my flip, and it will probably take my flip in order to do that.

[Val89]

Listen, if you are looking for an excuse here to make yourself feel better, and you think there is some remote possiblity both me and catboi are town, and both have totally fucked this game up from day one; blame it all on me if you have to.

I would bet the game on catboi being scum here. Lim me, lim catboi when you see the green card, and some scum team we aren't looking take the game that way, you can not count this one towards your win/loss and just say "oh, well we had dickhead Val as town in that game, that one doesn't count."

But for the love of good, just lim me. I thought when Igor was hovering, saying he thought I was scum, putting myself in hammer range would have ended it rigth there. I even claimed without being asked so there was nothing to stop him from doing it, and you go and hop off, and now have the cheek to say I'm making the game hard.

[Val89]

Val, can you answer this?

Kiss my tail. Buzz off. etc.

[Val89]

(but I am going to be dismissive if I feel someone is arguing with me in a scummy way, because otherwise I am playing into what they want to do)

This.

[Val89]

(I had something more to say here on why I am sure the sort of behavior that has been exhibited towards me in some posts can't be coming from town, but on reflection I think I will leave it until post-game.)

I've been thinking about if now is the right time to explain this, because it explains why I am not buying this olive-branch, or whatever it is supposed to be, as genuine in the slightest. I've concluded it will have to wait, because it skirts far too close to the line regarding outside infulence and another side-wide rule about a taboo discussion subject. I know that is going to be unsatisifying. I'm sorry. We can talking about it post-game if nessacary.

I am not, however, going to engage in this with catboi. I think this is bad faith, and he has an agenda here. If you want to read me saying so as alignment-indicative, so be it. I'm expecting to be flipped today in any case.

[Val89]

Val should quit being petty

Val is playing the best way, as he sees it, to achieve his wincon.

You might disagree, in this specific situation, or in general, but I assure you, you might find me obnoxious, or petty, or a selfish prick, or whatever other charges are being or will be leveled against me, playing to achieve my wincon based on what I believe the situation is, in a game where I can't trust anyone else's motives, is all I've ever done.

My elimination here is still, to my mind, the best chance towards a town victory. Scum LOVE having me around in a F3 or Mylo, as you catboi, and SM both have first hand experience with.

If you or anyone else disagrees, you can not vote me, and you can make that case to the others, but my vote will be staying where it is, and I'll continue to make the case that this is the best course of action.

[Val89]

Yes.

[Val89]

I think this is an acceptable direction for the game to go in, provided Val gets over himself and plays.

You omitted ".. the way I want him to." from that quote, there, it appears.

Why do you think just because YOU have decided that catboi is town that I have to take that read as gospel. You are asking me to play around around a read that I think is wrong, and in doing so, effectively play against my win condition, or else I'm not playing at all.

The hypocrisy in here stinks.

[Val89]

you're free to vote catboi. leaving your vote perma on yourself as the game moves forward is just, not playing the game.

You know what, fine. If you have some moral objection to the self-vote, I'll move it, but I think it's given a clear signal, and given the action of the last, what? 3 pages or so has been in reaction to said self-vote; to call that "not playing the game" is somewhat laughable. It might not be how you would play it, but the only thing I know for abolsute certain in this game is my own alignment, I am doing my best to do everything to move the game towards my wincon.

You can put your vote back on me, and all is right with the world, no?

VOTE: Catboi

[Val89]

VOTE: Greeting

[Val89]

Surprised and relieved at the lack of a kill, didn't think it was likely at all as there's only 3 people who could plausibly be the jailkeeper at this point. That gives us an extra elimination we frankly don't deserve.

I'm not all that suprised. How I viewed this game going into today was going to turn on the nightkill for the exact reason that there isn't much room for the JK left, and scum probably figured that.

I've been working on the assumption that StangeMatter had been spewed town by a scum!catboi, and I was fully expecting SM to take the bullet last night. That would have left us in a MELO with me arguing for a {Catboi, MafMen} scum team; and scum probably pushing for a Val plus another, frogs most likley team, and we have another round of catboi v val, but in MELO this time. The prospect left me cold with dread, but it's possible the scumteam weren't quite willing to bet the game on winning that argument just yet.

If anyone else had died, particulary if they hit a non-SM JK, that would have forced me to re-evaluate SM and basically reconsider all possible slots as a scumteam. A no-kill leaves me a little less sure where we are, and could have been deliberate.

Am I to take the last part of that quote to mean we AREN'T in MELO now? I ask because I have been burned by this before, and I'm not confident in my own ability to calculate if we are or not. Can someone else confirm?

[Val89]

Lol, there is absolutely no way on earth Val-town comes into today, having completely blown two elims in a row, and still thinks I'm scum. Just no re-evaluation or self-awareness whatsoever.

You took my post to mean I wasn't at least prepared to re-evaluate here?

If a JK SM had bit the dust last night, I admit I was fully preparing myself to make wall post after wall post about how all your actions yesterday made sense from a scum perspective and gone to my grave arguing we were losing to a Catboi (RB) - MafMen (Goon) team, told you so's at the ready.

But that didn't happen, and I'm not. Your post reads pretty overly-defensive in that light, to my eyes.

SM went totally under my radar yesterday on the assumption scum!you spewed him town. Its possible a town!you could have been labouring under the same assumption that leads to a misclear there, and if it is a misclear, that opens up a few more possibilities in my eyes.

I don't every think, regardless of catbois alignment , that frogs-catboi are the team. Does that need explanation, or is that common ground?

Are we in MELO today or not?

[Val89]

Well, that does change things.

I thought a no kill might have in fact been deliberate, but if its given us a free shot today, that seems much less likely.

I'm on mobile and travelling, but I will relook again over everything tonight. SM not being clear here may well change things considerably.

[Val89]

I think it was pretty clear that I wasn't automatically coming in with the view "catboi is 100 percent scum" and nothing had happened to make me reevaluate that. Catbois posts 1024 and 1025 seemed to come from the viewpoint that I was.

It looked a little bit like catboi didn't actually read my post fully, or did so through the lens that came straight from the viewpoint that I would be unshaken in my view that catboi was scum, and his best course of action was to go on the attack against me immediately. I call that overly-defensive.

[Val89]

Howdy! It me, the jailkeeper.

I had my figures crossed it was one of the others, because I had already decided you were absolute locktown because of the jump off my wagon yesterday, when a me into catboi flips was a clear and obvious plath to victory for a scum!implosion.

Clearing catboi as the roleblocker does change things for me. SM being in jail last night means the lack of NK doesn't clear catboi on its own, but combined with the fact he is a goon at worst, and the RB is in Mafmen/Frogs means that he is likely just town here. I thought catboi hopping off my wagon made sense if he was the RBer, because I said to frogs that my flip opens a clear path to town victory after catboi into (greeting/mafmen) in either order and frogs then did vote for me, I figured scum!catboi realised I was right, and my mislim would lose tlthem the game anyway which was what was driving the sudden loss of appetite.

That doesn't work if he is the goon though. Looks like he is town, and I was wrong. More fool me.

My inital thoughts are to stand by my townread on frogs, and say that makes it MafMen/SM, but I do intend to sit down and reread properly at the next opportunity.

[Val89]

To be completely fair, I think the fact SM was so quick to admit they weren't the JK today tends to paint them +town.

[Val89]

You know, it occurs to me that the no-kill night one was a part as to why I've been so willing to take Igor at face value, working on the assumption that the JK protected Igor and he was the target.

Now we know catboi was the N1 jailee, we have to ask the question again. Why no N1 kill? If Igor wasn't targeted, and catboi isn't a mafia goon submitting the kill, then that leaves either catboi as the target, or a deliberate choice to no kill.

I still think there is no good reason to doubt Igor here, but realising the whole of my thinking yesterday was built on faulty assumptions is humbling.

[Val89]

I've finished reading through D1 through the lens of the new stuff I know today that I didn't know yesterday; to wit:

• -Greeting was town
  -Despite the fact it was a reasonable assumption made both myself and catboi, and possibly others, made Pseudo/SM is not the JK; Implosion is.
  -Frogs or MafMen is the Mafia Roleblocker (I do also understand that from the perspective of others, I am also a possible candidate for the Roleblocker)

...and having done so, I think MafMen looks like the clear favourite here.

Firstly, frogsfrogs.

None of the new information makes frogsfrogs look worse to my eyes, at least as far as D1 goes. In fact, I think the confirmation that Greeting was town makes him look even better:

I really thought Greeting and Val were both town arguing from different experience but this has absolutely spiraled now. :S

Honestly I consider the derail to be doing more arguing about Greeting vs Val right now. I don't think Greeting proposing to self hammer makes him look more scummy and I don't think it says anything about Val.

The context for the second quote there was Thyn coming in in between and saying "Focusing on me atp would be derailing town. I would advise everyone to look at Val/Greeting more carefully." I don't think scum, of either variety, would avail themselves of an oppotunity there to pull attention away from 'Greeting vs Val' when they know that was going to result in a mislim. Much better to follow Thyn's advice and keep attention on our little scrap, divide the town and get a wagon going on one or the other of us, and I think that would be a play that would be obvious to any scum no matter how new they were. Of course, that

IS

exactly what MafMen does - attacks me for what eventually transpires is a difference in prefered terminiology, and then; after the self-hammer threat, pivoting to throwing shade on Greeting. On a re-read, it looks very much like he is trying to play both sides of the argument there, while frogs was fairly quick to call us TvT, and move way from what could have been an easy mislim, particulary with the self-hammer threat, and one that most likley would have made me look very bad going into D2 - a move that I think was obviously anti-scum now, in retrospect.

On the other hand, MafMen does not come off so well. I start with post 100.

i think my wagon was pretty pure so im personally dealing with a poe of margot, implosion, and frogsfrogs
theres for sure atleast one wolf in that comp if not two, but im not 100% confident in saying my wagon was all green

This looks rather backwards, to me. I can't understand how you get a feeling that there are X number of scum on your wagon, and it looks like MafMen is trying to say he thinks there was at most one, and THEN arrive at a PoE from that. Perhaps this is a playstyle thing, but how does one get a sense that a wagon, any wagon, is 'pretty pure', and then come up with a PoE from that, without evaluating the slots on it first?

I also note something else of interest:

also why is he more likely to be scum?
while irrational his thought process is genuine

This is a follow up to mafman saying he initial placed his vote on me because he thought I was misrepresenting Greeting, but he realised that he agreed with me that what they were doing is harmful. I say this is part of that 'playing both sides', because he is still trying to push at me here, but note what he says about Greetings thought process: it

is

genuine. Not it 'looks' genuine, it is. Clearly, that proved to be true, but the only way MafMen could have known that then was if he already knew Greeting was town. Was this a subtle scumslip that went unnoticed in the heat of the argument?

I need to look through D2 as well before I make up my mind (and I really am dreading rereading that shitshow - I think stopping to make this post might well just be an excuse to delay doing so) given I've learnt my lesson as far as unchallenged assumptons go, but I am certainly leaning towards MafMen currently.

[Val89]

My gut check hip fire read is that Val + MafMen just isn't a thing, at all, and end of day yesterday makes me feel like frogs/mafmen isn't, either, because frogs was very willing to jump that vote

Looking back at frogs's iso it's not the strongest thing in the world, but mafmen reacted with exasperation/disbelief at frogs suspecting him, he didn't really push back and kept townreading frogs and i feel like he'd more likely distance from a partner?

Here is the other thing, I concur with the assement that frogs/Maf is isn't a thing either, and I got the same sense through my reread of D1 that they were unaligned also. I struggle to see a partner at all. It ain't catboi, that's for sure. I know distancing is a thing, but, given that we are all basically in agreement that finding the Roleblocker today is basically a town win, does a SM goon really go and throw a FoS at their RBer? I don't think so. That leaves me, and my own alignment and the fact I'm not scum with frogs is the only damn thing I've known for sure this entire game. So, I can't see a partner for frogs here, and that alone makes me want to flip MafMen.

Greeting, look at MafMen trying to say you/Val was scum theater and tell me if you think that's a theory a townie really has?

I know this was a question to a slot no longer with us, but I am asking myself the same question now. The answer, and the above, leads me here.

VOTE: MafMen

[Val89]

Someone check my work here, please.

MafMen can only be town in the following circumstances:

{Frogs, Val} are the scum team (with either as the RBer)
{Val!RB, SM!Goon}
{Val!RB, Catboi!Goon}
{Frogs!RB, SM!Goon}
{Frogs!RB, Catboi!Goon}
Or, it's a double-goon set up, and we are being lied to by Igor.

There are no other combinations I've missed there, have I?

[Val89]

Igorsprite claimed tracker fairly early D1. No results. On D2, he faked a guilty before retracting, now claims to have been roleblocked both nights.

Players were speculating on D2 that Strange matter was the jailkeeper the existence of which Igor was claiming to be roleblocked pointed to. I believe Igor and catboi were the two slots to say so explicitly, but I also believed that.

Greeting claimed VT D1, myself and catboi did so D2.

Implosion came out as Jailkeep today, D3. Claims to have Jailed catboi n1, and Strangematter N2. No kill took place on either nights.

Please don't take my use of the word claimed to mean I disbelieve any part of that. I am afraid you are going to have to catch up properly to understand the nuances, given some of the play around the PRs this game.

Be warned, this one is a bit of a dumpster fire, and I am at least partially responsible for that, so sorry.

[Val89]

Who do think are candidates for being my partner, Frogs?

[Val89]

Hedgey? There's only so many possible setups left imo, and I feel like I'm setting up a clear flowchart of what I'd like to do, not being wishy washy. We flip Val or Adante today in search of the RBer. If they're town then flip the other, if they're the RBer then flip you. I feel like you're killing me with a thousand needles here.

So, to be clear your plan here is to flip me or Adante today, and you don't really care much; then -

Val town -> flip Adante. If Adnate is RBer, flip SM; if Adante if goon, flip Igor; where I and Adante can switch positions in that first interchangably?
Val goon -> flip Igor;
Val RB -> flip SM.

Is that right, and if so, have you considered which scumteams that plan loses to?

[Val89]

Is that right, and if so, have you considered which scumteams that plan loses to?

I mean, both yes and no, not explicitly. I haven't been checking numbers yet.

5v2 today, vote Val or Adante.

Well, I certainly think you need to, if you want me, or anyone else to endorse your plan. You need to show you have considered the teams you lose to, and explain why you are ruling them out. You can't handwave it away by "Well, maybe we just lose" and not having thought about it.

Why are you either ruling out, or, if you are town, happy to lose to SM/Igor?

Have to decide if catboi or the non-voted Val / Adante is the more likely partner to the RBer. Risky.

Secondly, given you call this "risky", do you think Val/Catboi, Val/Adante and Adante/Catboi are all equally likely scum partnerships given the game so far?

[Val89]

Someone check my work here, please.

MafMen can only be town in the following circumstances:

{Frogs, Val} are the scum team (with either as the RBer)
{Val!RB, SM!Goon}
{Val!RB, Catboi!Goon}
{Frogs!RB, SM!Goon}
{Frogs!RB, Catboi!Goon}
Or, it's a double-goon set up, and we are being lied to by Igor.

There are no other combinations I've missed there, have I?

Perhaps associations aren't entirely reliable, particulary given I think there has to be at least

some

attempt at distancing going on somewhere; but we DO have mechanically confirmed information here. Andante needs to be read in place of MafMen in that list now obviously, but I assume given nobody has said otherwise, I am confident I'm not missing any potential teams there.

From my perspective, and I know this is purely from my perspective, and everyone else needs to evalute this information through the lens of me potentially misleading you, the top three are also

mechanically

excluded, by my role PM.

The last is

technically

possible; but the number of stars that would have to have aligned for it to work - Igor as newscum taking the huge and obvious risk of fakeclaiming early on D1 when they weren't under significant preasure, getting lucky and hitting the 1/3 change the tracker claim didn't get CCd straight away, the JK deciding not to lock up the tracker claim, and then that Igor!Goon team trying to hit the actual JK target in catboi, and then a goon!Igor going straight into D2 drawing more attention to himself with fake guilties on said NK target; it's just so unbeleivable to me as to consider it it entirely neglibable, and essentially ruled out also.

So that leaves the only situautions Andante can be town from my perspective as {Frogs!RB, SM!Goon} or {Frogs!RB, Catboi!Goon}. The latter looks about as likley to me as Me and Catboi, and, yes, that is assocatives, but I'm trusting that one enough to rule it out also. That leaves the ONLY way Adante is flipping green today for me is if the team is exactly {Frogs!RB, SM!Goon}.

That one is a possibility; but I still maintain it makes much more sense for a scum!Frogs, being informed that the scrap he was seeing on D1 between me and Greeting was town versus town, then uses that information to take a side and push one or the other of us to a mislim, particulary with Greeting making it easier with the self-hammer threat, than announce to us it

is

TvT and then only pivot on his read on me D3. I am judging what I am seeing from frogs in the last page of two is a newbtown shitting the bed just as we had our likley RBer ready to flip rather than scum making a play.

In short, it is going to take a hell of a lot to convince me to move my vote off Andante today.

[Val89]

Were you talking to me with that first question? I think it's clear I am not.

My opinion on your slot is that I think you are the the most likley candidate as Goon to Andantes RBer, or if I am wrong and it does turn out to be frogs, then you are the goon through PoE - but you are the goon at worse, so I won't be arguing for your elimination today in any case.

I never really paid much attention to your slot at all D2, given I figured pretty early that you were the 'Secret PR read' that Catboi was refering to D2, even before attention was drawn to the 'PR soft' that turned out not to be one, because you were one of the few slots he didn't point the FoS at, and how deferential he was being to your slot compared to others when questioned.

As you know, I spent all of yesterday utterly convinced that catboi was scum, and that he had spewed you town by the above, and so I didn't pay all that much attention to you. I tried to leave the door open to the possibility I might have been the JK in my 734 in order perhaps to leave some doubt and just possibly draw the NK, but I had to abandon that once implosion, who I was always reading as town apart from that gut reaction right at the start, voted me and I decided the best course of action was to get hammered by Igor, deprive scum of historically favoured game-winning mislim material and hope people would take my catboi read more seriously after seeing my town flip; but in order for that to be a possibility I had to out as VT.

I was working on the assumption that catboi was right, and you were in fact the JK, or even if not you had been spewed as town by a scum!catboi because he did genuiningly believe that, but I recognised if catboi was both town, and wrong, then I didn't actually have any reason to townread you and you were a likley candidate for lurk-scum; which is what I was refering to here:

and even in the unlikley event of a town!catboi, then that gives me something on the SM slot in particular that I think we need to know today

I had a very light townlean on the previous occupant of your slot and pretty much nothing on you personally but I wasn't that bothered about it because I thought you had been spewed town anyway. That's still essentially where I am with you now. I haven't seen anything overtly scummy, but I don't see much reason to townread you either, and there isn't much left in the PoE, except maybe Andante-Catboi, where you aren't the goon. If you aren't scum, I imagine it's going to be frustrating for you to be read as such by PoE when it wasn't exactly your fault your alignment wasn't much examined yesterday, but that's where I am.

[Val89]

What are your thoughts on MafMen/Andante, and frogs, Strangematter?

[Val89]

You just need to be hundred percent clear with us here, Igor.

The only way we are possibly losing this game now is if you are giving us information that's isn't reliable.

You *tried* to track frogsfrogs on N1, but got a 'no result' or 'your action was blocked' or whatever the result is whenever there is a roleblocker, correct?

[Val89]

I intend to, but we do have literal days, so I figured it was worth a check in case there was some outside possibility you were telling the truth about not using your ability N1, then decided to lie about it because you were embarrassed by the pushback you got for it.

Asked and answered.

VOTE: frogsfrogs

[Val89]

UNVOTE:

No, wait. No result n3? That's different to "it worked and frogs didn't visit anyone", no?

I've never played tracker. Can someone who has confirm what the results

should

be when roleblocked, and when the target doesn't visit?

[Val89]

Works for me. The only way this isn't a win now is if Igor is faking

as town

, and one would hope he would realise the situation and own up right the fuck now, if so.

If he is faking as scum, we still win: Flip frogs, Jail Igor, Flip me (on the assumption I'm scum deliberately no-killing), Jail Igor, that's still 3 town v 1 scum. Even if I were the Roleblocker, getting a kill off tonight still leaves it 3 town v 1 scum tomorrow while clearing Igor.

This game is done. The order of the flipping me and frogs doesn't technically matter either for the win, but in the interests of speed:

VOTE: Frogsfrogs.

[Val89]

Are you holding off voting because you aren't sure this game is mechanically solved, SM?

It sure looks like it to me. Flip frogs, game over. If it isn't, flip me, jail Igor (if he is scum, he is exactly a goon), flip him, gg.

Time enough for all 3.