Open 837: Cop Killer - Endgame

[mc esther]

doc should, barring cop wifom, treat cpr as a vig; and nobody should discuss doc theory beyond this point, it'll help mafia read doc

VOTE: Enchant

idk, i heard a rumour

[mc esther]

that you have an unfortunate habit of shooting people at night. tragic stuff, really.

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Salsabil Faria

was buddying in the queue

[mc esther]

^

[mc esther]

i guess rvs joke-voting the inno is loosely town, in that it's kinda similar to rvs self-vote gambits. but i still dont particularly like it, at a strategic level.

"almost50's d12 casino" would be a good title for a gamethread, but it's not a game i particularly want to play. that said, he is obviously uniquely positioned to lead wagons.

[mc esther]

ive only ever seen the self-vote reaction test used by town. i could guess at reasons for this (mafia not wanting to draw attention to themself, mafia not wanting to do something daft that gets them policy-eliminated, the fact that moving the game out of rvs benefits town), but the theory behind it is far less relevant to me (because i think it's bad and shouldnt happen regardless) than what ive tended to observe.

[mc esther]

ive only ever seen the self-vote reaction test used by town. i could guess at reasons for this (mafia not wanting to draw attention to themself, mafia not wanting to do something daft that gets them policy-eliminated, the fact that moving the game out of rvs benefits town), but the theory behind it is far less relevant to me (because i think it's bad and shouldnt happen regardless) than what ive tended to observe.

If the theory is bad, why do you subscribe to it?

the observation that specific [imo] anti-town behaviours tend to come from town, is not the same thing as endorsing those behaviours, does that clarify what i meant?

a50 has somewhat reduced my confidence in this, but, there's a chance i talk about this again later.

damn y'all posting fast now

[mc esther]

i thought pretending to believe the vig claim was funny :/

[mc esther]

A50 gets all hammers. He should check to make sure NM is around when doing so to prevent scum from twilight strategizing.

does this mean we should also treat deadlines as slightly shorter than they are? like, this is definitely correct for the most part, but risks no-hammer if the wagon only builds up close to deadline.

Doc claims should be left alive in all circumstances. If they’re fake, the real doc will probably shoot them. If they’re real the scum won’t shoot them because of the possibility of the real doc shooting them (neither team will know if it’s a real or fakeclaim) and we should be able to work backwards from number of kills to determine whether they were real or not.

idk if i agree with "in all circumstances" and counting night-kills to confirm lol. relying on informed factions to give us the information we need seems naive. i have, other grievances, but i dont really wanna talk too much about it for the reasons i outlined in my first post, im happy to say "actually i think cop should investigate doc claims" and leave it at that.

____________________________

im not sure i actually understand where the recent argument/kerfuffle/case/push/whatever surrounding guiltylion came from; imma try reading again.

[mc esther]

It's RVS, nothing I say right now has any actual meaning beyond seeing reactions

Nah, you and GL have moved right on out of RVS with this little kerfuffle

agreed, and, it kinda bugs me? like, claiming "rvs lol" after multiple people have put forward seemingly serious reasons (and not just between lion and roden, we also have lq attempting meta on pav) is, ehhhhh?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Roden

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Salsabil Faria
was buddying in the queue

Why did you unvote Enchant here, mc?

isn't that like... rvs and all?

I wanted to hear mc explain in their own words because every other post of theirs has been really over-explainy and I'm trying to get a sense of their personality

LQ is feeling WILDLY different than I remember from town him

LQ is feeling WILDLY different than I remember from town him

what do you remember from town!him?

I've got a decent amount of experience with town!LQ but not a lot that I can remember of scum!LQ

LQ is feeling WILDLY different than I remember from town him

what do you remember from town!him?

I've got a decent amount of experience with town!LQ but not a lot that I can remember of scum!LQ

Empty threats. This is my Town game. I have no idea what T3 is talking about.

im pretty sure t3 is talking about guiltylion, seeing as that's who he quoted and that's where his vote is.

[mc esther]

lickety and roden, do either/both of you actually find this back-and-forth useful?

[mc esther]

lickety and roden, do either/both of you actually find this back-and-forth useful?

Not particularly.

i understand that youve since decided this take was incorrect, but rewinding back a bit -- why on earth would you participate in over a page of conversation that you didnt [at the time] believe was useful?

[mc esther]

im with darby on this. i quite literally cannot get anything out of the blue one-liners between the pyramids of grey.

[mc esther]

salsabil, how is lq's lack of vote in #130 different from auro's lack of vote in #72 (which you quoted!), or t3's lack of vote in #145?

[mc esther]

Count me among the ones glazing over at LQ/Roden right now. This is the point where if one of you *has* caught scum, you are decreasing the likelihood that any of us will join you on it.

if this werent multiball, this would ping really hard to me. not for glazing over the two-and-a-half pages lmao, that's pretty much the only human reaction; but the outright refusal to try and make any read based on the earliest stages of it, or intervening comments from other pages.

but this is multiball, so "not scumhunting" isnt the tell it usually would be. i dont really know what to make of the post tbh.

[mc esther]

ebwop lmao: "intervening comments from other players"

[mc esther]

like, if your reading of the entire event is town vs. town (i think, on rereading your iso and your most recent post, that this is perhaps what you meant? my bad on the earlier "no reads" accusation if so) -- there are quite a few votes invested in the argument at this point, are you really going to tell me that every single one of them is either town or unreadable?

[mc esther]

What is mc actually doing btw, feeling like not understandable noises only...

you understood me well enough to answer my question, clearly at least some of my "noises" are understandable. but sure, i can elaborate on the comments about pavowski.

of all the players who have been active since lq vs. roden blew up (it actually kinda started as guiltylion vs. roden), pavowski is the only person with neither votes nor explicitly-stated reads invested. this oddity seems the most obvious thing in the world to me; i cannot understand "not understandable" as a description.

even t3, who has repeatedly said he lacks reads and struggles to get anything out of the thread, has a vote on lq. even auro, who's barely been active throughout the drama and has stuck with his rvs vote, got a weak scumread on roden and a townread on darby out of it. nobody except pavowski is using the tedium of the "lq vs. roden" pages as an excuse to say literally nothing about these interactions.

i was initially going to accuse pavowski of dodging my question; but after garlon didnt understand me early game, and now salsabil doesnt understand me, i guess pavowski could be in the same camp. so:

pavowski, now that it's been laid out [hopefully] more clearly, are you going to reply this time?

[mc esther]

i can see why scum!lickety would want the thread to be the way it is now; and salsabil and t3's meta read had me considering the scum vs. scum interpretation at one point. but i dont find it that compelling, i obviously cant corroborate their reads, and lickety clearly isnt the only person responsible for the state of the thread.

voicing doubts about the wagon in post #289 pings vaguely town. i dont see much reason for him to attempt to disengage as scum, he's very much "winning" as it were. the obvious reason would be "for the town cred", i guess; but scum changing a read after hard tunnelling for multiple pages is pretty gutsy imo.

[mc esther]

Reading more into the argument I don’t think any of that is salvageable info. I don’t think any info will come out of that without a flip and atp I don’t want to flip either slots.

why not? if you believe that a flip could potentially provide information, and that a flip is in fact the only possible source of information -- why dont you want a flip?

everyone's townreading darby and i get it; but to me, guiltylion seems by far the most obviously pro-town player, both for his early-game contributions and for his more recent attempt at understanding the thread.

lmao i feel bad for enchant. what a catch-up.

[mc esther]

so you dont exactly believe that a flip allows us to gain information from the specifics of their argument, just that it would build the same association tells that almost any flip [on a sufficiently active player] does?

lmao early game i listed you as a townread for apparently the literal worst reason! ive since decided youre town for helping cut those pages of argument short.

[mc esther]

How many votes

Roden

has btw?

I'm like want to vote them, also don't want to vote them at the same time

?

Roden (4)-

GuiltyLion, mc esther, LicketyQuickety, DArby

I only feel good about

GL

so far...

??

They are in this game?

UNVOTE: mc

VOTE: Enchant

???

[mc esther]

you randomly moved your vote to a lurker after expressing interest in a wagon that you [apparently?] dont actually feel good about.

[mc esther]

yes, but what does "not confident about voting roden yet" actually mean? youve talked a little about why you dont want to vote roden (apparently you think me and enchant are better votes, apparently youre kinda sus of the people on the wagon in general). but why *do* you want to vote roden, what dont you like about their posting, which players do you think have reasonable cases against him? are you waiting on roden to defend himself, are you waiting on lickety to come out as more obviously townsided, what's going on with this "oh i kinda want to maybe" posting?

[mc esther]

Why are you so hyper??

i think it's a pretty normal and straightforward line of questioning, actually -- and you didnt even address it!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Salsabil

Do you think you do something townie enough so I shouldn’t vote you?

no. i wouldve asked why you voted me if i found it odd that you voted me.

[mc esther]

salsabil, there's a pretty clear context to that comment.

so far i've pretty willing to clarify my meaning to you, even when you've put literally zero effort into explaining where your confusion was. at this point, it feels like you just dont read the posts. perhaps they have too many words in them -- guiltylion seemed to think so -- but you didnt try to work with the quotes-and-question-marks format either.

[mc esther]

Whether Roden was actually frustrated or not.

why do you think roden was feigning frustration? im pretty sure that everyone in the thread has come to much the same conclusion, that the posts youre referring to are essentially unreadable -- can you point to anything specific in them, any set of general features, idk, that pinged as "this isnt real"? i know you made a post singling out his reply to "is this back-and-forth actually useful", but that's not all there is to it, right?

also, you seem pretty sure in your read again -- contrast #189 or whichever post it is i referenced earlier, where you seemed to be seriously doubting the read. what happened between then and then and now, what's the thought process that led to tunelling then doubting then a strong read?

i still have roden down as a scumread, but i dont really get your particular take on scum!roden at all.

___________________________________

okay, townreads for the towngod

i've given these first two earlier in the thread, but
1. guiltylion, reasons previously stated, nothing's changed.
2. darby, reasons previously stated, nothing's changed.
3. t3; but this one is pretty null-town, a long, long, long way below (1) and (2). early-game, i was curious about his lack of random vote, so i clicked through some of his most recent completed games (i can link them if you want), and best as i could tell -- though the association is a little weak -- he seems to random vote noticeably more often as scum. it's not just that, it's also some other weak tells like forgetting the game exists, and i have gut-positive feelings towards the way he interacted with the pages of hell. this one's pretty "yeah i guess".

i dont really get how anyone has a read on galron/enchant/auro; and even bingle only pretty recently started posting, it's content but it's pretty, idk, pedestrian. i hope to have a stronger opinion on lq pretty soon.

[mc esther]

But at this point my SR on Roden grew stronger when they ditched the thread which I am reading as them doing so so that the votes start to fall off them

but roden had abandoned the thread over ~32 hours before i unvoted him -- and that's just one vote, as far as i can tell from isos, everyone else's vote is still there. and im still not sure i understand where the moment of doubt came from, i read it as a sincere moment of town self-reflection at the time, but im struggling to square that with these subsequent posts.

[mc esther]

Similar question to Esther: do you believe that scum!GL wouldn't have posted pro-town content as he did so far?

early game, fair question. to some extent, i cant know, and that's what makes online mafia so difficult. it'd be a very weak towntell if it stopped there.

my one main salient takeaway from the LQ/Roden bit is that both are making dubious claims on one particular front

Roden in 205 asks LQ if LQ thinks Roden "purposefully puts himself in this situation as scum". Again I think Roden is questionably taking credit for something that I feel I'm responsible for (early wagon/pressure on Roden). The logic of "why would I get wagoned as scum" isn't easy to understand from either a town/scum perspective, it's not clear what Roden specifically thinks that he did to get himself wagoned and whether that was intentional. However I have seen both alignments make the "I wouldn't be wagoned if I were scum here" claim, it's not something I feel comfortable reasoning about as AI but I certainly don't townread it, at best it's WIFOMy.

However, Roden has a point in 209 that LQ agreeing that scum!Roden might indeed intentionally "put himself in this situation" is also a bad take. Scum do not love early scrutiny, in almost any circumstance. I don't see LQ's logic in implying that this COULD be a scum plan - again, how and where did Roden even intentionally invite pressure on himself? Whatever Roden's alignment is, I'm sure he'd rather not be voted and rather not have to argue with people voting him.

I can see what LQ is saying in that LQ just kinda went along with an idea (being intentionally wagoned) that Roden put out there, but it's just such bad reasoning on both sides ("if I were scum, I wouldn't be wagoned") ("no, if you were scum, this might be your plan!!") that I'm having a hard time parsing why either player is taking any of the logic seriously.

posts like this are the ones that have me going "scum dont have to do this and im really not sure they want to". the evidence in-thread is that nobody wants to make these posts! it pings town over scum to me because i think it disproportionately benefits scum to leave those pages as much a black hole as possible. clarifying the general thrust of the argument and giving interpretations seems to be hurt the mafia's, idk, "abstract wincon" (a low-information gamestate) way beyond any towncred it might be worth; it would cost literally nothing to just, refuse to make any attempt.

[mc esther]

the scumread on guiltylion is basically meta, right? like, bingle posted a theory disagreement with gl, but a key part of what makes that disagreement a scumread for him is "and don’t think GL believes it either" (which later seems to dissolve into an argument as to whether or not roden was getting "shitpushed").

[mc esther]

roden's up on 48 hours btw. if it takes another two 48-hour prods to have him replaced, we won't have anyone in that slot until three days before deadline. i dont really know what to make of this information, just drawing it to the attention of someone with stronger opinions on deadline management than me.

[mc esther]

Why even signal to other mafia if they need each other dead as well?

It's naturally "NK me pls"

this is town imo

idk if i really believe the pav posts are signalling (might reread them later to see if i can work out how, hypothetically, they might work as a signal — that said, nobody who thinks they do know should explicitly spell the mechanics of it out), but i see the argument for treating these posts as signalling as such regardless of discernable intent. i would like to add that my general memory of pav's posting is that it's often been pretty low-content, but im on mobile rn.

the salsabil post where she acknowledges she's not scum hunting, lmao.

[mc esther]

pavowski, please let the issue drop for now

[mc esther]

no, i do not know anybody in this playerlist.

[mc esther]

im flattered that you think my read on you is exceptionally informed, though. what do you think my read on you is?

[mc esther]

do you believe that "low-content" would be a fair assessment of your playstyle in general? do you believe it's a fair assessment of your play in this particular game?

[mc esther]

"hmm, if somehow X slot were to be night killed, hmm hmm hmm, then my opinion could change..."

i liked auro's earlier posts on signalling -- not in that i really agreed with them, just in that he raised the issue and pushed it reasonably, without discussing how a scumteam might interpret it as a signal -- but this sort of post is the reason i asked pavowski to drop the issue.

[mc esther]

It's straightforward how a scumteam would interpret it given they treat it as a signal. Further discussion would only make it harder for a scumteam to act on it.

there are at least two different types of signal, and it was not immediately obvious to me the precise interpretation that was being suggested. i am not the most oblivious person in the thread (though perhaps i am among the most oblivious!), enchant didnt even believe in signalling was a realistic possibility at all. i dont think keeping this sort of knowledge out of reach of those unable to fully grasp it is a futile gesture.

i dont really agree with that latter point either, but i'd rather talk about it day 2 if people still find it relevant.

[mc esther]

Meanwhile, while you're here: has your recent convo with Pavowski helped develop your read on him?

not really, and im pretty disappointed with the way i handled it -- i shouldntve told him i dont know him until after i'd posed those questions, there was an opportunity to have scum!pavowski genuinely scared there and i kinda botched it. i find his last post pretty relatable, and i like that he owns his play and hasnt really tried to omgus anyone or otherwise discredit pressure on him, but eh, town can do that. i dont think he's a particularly good elimination today, i think almost50 and bingle were right to go salsa over pavowski.

[mc esther]

ebwop: "but eh, scum can do that"

[mc esther]

uh yeah the salsabil townread is a bit of a hot take, do you think you can elaborate on it?

[mc esther]

when you talk about salsa's developing reads, im assuming youre largely talking about her lickety read. ill think on it, but it's not that convincing to me right this moment; and im really not sure it can outweigh the way she responded to me and t3 pressuring her, or her weird relationship to the roden wagon.

i do agree that there are question marks over lickety, i wasnt super explicit about it, but that was what i was getting at when poking holes in his comments about roden abandoning the thread.

[mc esther]

the biggest issue with scum!lickety to me is that the roden error is almost too blatant. surely scum check their facts a little better than that lmao.

[mc esther]

do lickety and roden know each other particularly well? would lickety reasonably know in advance that he could bait roden into that sort of an argument, or would lickety be afraid enough of roden reading him that he would want to push the miselim so recklessly?

[mc esther]

Not hammering.

But gonna be honest, it's tempting.

Do you townread me

Enchant

?

If otherwise i would send to anime hell already.

enchant, can you elaborate on why hammering a townread is tempting?

[mc esther]

I thought that was hammer actually.

my gut feeling is that self-admitted failure to quickhammer is somehow different from an actual quickhammer in terms of alignment indication, but my head is telling me "no lol that's a completely daft belief". insert that simpsons quote about the nobel prize for attempted chemistry, i guess.

[mc esther]

i think basically everyone's established this, but to be explicit so that nobody suggests anything daft later (and also to get auro's thoughts): pavowski's town. there was literally no reason for him to signal for a kill on guiltylion, guiltylion was townreading him all day; and the observation that scum would be too paranoid to make that sort of comment if not as an intentional signal rings pretty true. while start-of-day speculation on the night targets was a pretty bad idea, i think it makes a lot more sense from "townie with weird hang-ups about night" than "scum who went straight for the same speculation that had him under suspicion day one".

unless every single leading wagon was on town

i wouldnt dismiss this possibility lol. like, the literal majority of the playerlist (myself adamantly included) believed that both you and salsa were likely scum, day one was lowkey a bit of a clusterfuck.

VOTE: enchant

seeing as apparently your votes dont require any further comment

[mc esther]

Like... I didn't want to bring this up yesterday because it hurt my position in another game that has ended, but LQ seems like the kind of player who just has weird takes.

does this include

my SR on Roden grew stronger when they ditched the thread which I am reading as them doing so so that the votes start to fall off them

where the take was just, factually wrong? i still havent made up my mind about it.

[mc esther]

i think basically everyone's established this, but to be explicit so that nobody suggests anything daft later (and also to get auro's thoughts): pavowski's town

I don't think I agree with this anymore. I didn't like people suggesting Pav's D1 posting was an attempt to signal, I thought it clearly wasn't, but I do think his opening D2 post is really bad, I'm wondering if he straight up scum slipped by revealing knowledge of the "frozen" flavoring for Ice Team kill

idk, i see where youre coming from but, "frozen", lol. youre not wrong to note that there are a ton of potential synonyms, but "pav picking the most obvious word, and the mod also picking the most obvious word" isnt an unlikely coincidence that needs an explanation.

this is not OMGUS-driven

lmao this seems such a weird statement to me. does anyone outside of rvs ever say "yeah im omgussing lol", like, why would you bother clarifying this? that said,

You're leaning that way, although I'm not giving up on my prior thought that you and Roden were TvT. And I'm not going to be baited into your JAQing off here.

yeah i do think lickety is just trying to pick random fights as in day 1. i kinda saw shades of this with the random bingle vote too.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: licketyquickety

[mc esther]

there's a difference between "aggressively interrogating random players hoping they crack" and "starting random fights". im pretty sure we discussed the scum benefits of fights (as opposed to arguments, which generate information) pretty extensively d1.

galron explained, imo relatively clearly, what they didnt like about your reads' list, and why they felt these flaws could be alignment-indicative (and, eh, i dont quite agree with him on that point -- i could level the same criticism at pav's reads lists, but pav is imo clearly town, despite some of the people who townread him d1 now doubting that). sarcastically throwing the question back at him, "that makes me scum or what", isnt encouraging discussion, it's an attempt at repeating d1 long after youve been informed that nobody really appreciated or benefitted from that play (and after it's become apparent that this play did not help build reads!)

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:

just taking lq off l-1, imma revote when guiltylion gets back with his promised readslist

[mc esther]

The Mysterious Clearly Experienced Alt in mc esther

hehe, thanks <3

fwiw, i havent played a forum game (here or on any other site) since the [late] quicktopic era, and doubt anyone would remember me, i was never particularly known. i dont really think of this account as an alt, it's very much a "new era, new main" type thing. my old account would have perhaps been less subjectively mysterious, but probably no more useful to you in terms of figuring out what im "usually" like; nowadays, im usually like this!

[mc esther]

Now you have me slightly curious. That’s my origins. I’m jingle, used to hang around site chat most of the time, had a few very active hydrae, was involved with pretty much every game that had the ETL/Antihero crowd.

i cant be sure i never played with any of your hydrae, but no i dont have any games with jingle; i do know ive played with an antihero hydra before, but i think just once. i played with klick, psyche, and rainbowdash (always the rbd alt, never llamafluff's main) a few times and remember them moderately well, but didnt really have a regular crowd because i had a couple of hiatuses and didnt play a huge number of games during any of my periods of activity.

____________________

i dont really get where auro's coming from at all, but it also doesnt sound like a made-up excuse, it sounds like something i just dont get.

still waiting on part two of guiltylion's post, but apparently i miscounted lickety votes.

VOTE: licketyquickety

[mc esther]

this actually strengthens my read on lickety. i asked earlier whether he was likely to know that he could bait you into that sort of fight, the fact that the answer is "yes" definitely makes me believe he was intentionally trying to clog up the thread.

i do think enchant is a decent wagon (although, it's complicated!), but i'd much rather lickety.

[mc esther]

your detachment. your playing to an audience is very relatable and i wholeheartedly approve.

[mc esther]

in addition to guiltylion's comprehensive (though imo, slightly overstated) case against enchant: we're potentially heading into some pretty tight m/elo-like situations very soon (multiball makes it more complicated than that, but you get me -- miselim in 2:2:5 might not strictly be an autoloss, but i'd rather not find out lmao) and i see value in getting lurkers out of the way now rather than trying to reason through them when it really matters.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: enchant

[mc esther]

VOTE: enchant
I don’t want to vote LQ today.

is this because you dont believe lq is scum, or just an agreement that enchant increasingly becomes a liability as the game goes on?

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: licketyquickety[/quote]

i dont actually believe you (scum shot roden, at the time the number one scumread in the game? really?), but we have seven days on the deadline and another perfectly good wagon, so im willing to indulge this a little. it probably goes without saying that nobody should counterclaim this.

if you believed roden was scum so strongly that you were willing to vig him over it, why werent you voting him yesterday?

[mc esther]

VOTE: licketyquickety

[mc esther]

i feel confident enough that lq is scum that i dont think improbable night play will make d3 unbearably hard

[mc esther]

t3, the lack of lickety vote means you believe lickety is town?

[mc esther]

roden unvoted

[mc esther]

#793 through to #798 regarding the "picking fights" thing

[mc esther]

i dont think even galron even agrees with that interpretation tbh (seeing as he never voted over it or even commented on it), im pretty sure im the only person who considers it a significant part of "the case"

[mc esther]

Could everyone give their reads on Bingle, Pav, and GL? With Enchant claiming Doc, the PoE continues to shrink and I think at least one of these three have to be scum.

obviously i fundamentally disagree with the pool youve outlined. frankly, i dont want to compromise on lickety, but on top of that, it's a very impractical pool, i simply dont see sufficient support for guiltylion or pavowski eliminations in the thread. but sure.

ive talked about guiltylion a moderate amount, and nothing's really changed here, similar level of certainty to the darby townread.

pavowski is very strongly town to me, but i think the difference in the type of read is relevant. pavowski's town because his play would be a rather self-destructive scumgame; this comes with the pretty obvious objection that it hasnt actually got him eliminated, it is something that can be faked as a wifomy gambit. im basing my strong townread on the assumption that his low-commitment playstyle doesnt really facilitate the sort of "lol imma signal a kill then head into day 2 making weird inflammatory remarks about the kill and flavour, totally gonna get townread" strategy scum!pavowski would be going for here, and i think that's almost certainly true, but it's probably an assumption better assessed by other players. most of the players here seem to agree, but i guess it's significant that the most prominent dissenters (guiltylion and roden) are strongly town. i can imagine some very specific circumstances that would cause me to revise this read, but i dont think theyre very likely and dont really want to share them right now; youll know and understand if it happens.

bingle. eh. i dont get the townreads on him. i havent had a lot to do with him, galron, or auro; the three of them are in various ways (and this is difficult to quantify) not really on the same wavelength as me? i dont think this is alignment-indicative or a comment on the quality of their play, sometimes you (i?) just dont get people -- or, to quote an ancient proverb, "game is hard". the most positive thing i can say about bingle is that he handled the pavowski drama towards the end of day 1 really well, culminating in a slightly opaque (contextually, in a good way) vote on salsabil; but that's kinda in the same basket as theory-posting imo, it's a situation where there's a correct play for pretty abstract reasons not so directly mired in the specific content and rhetoric of posts. there isnt much negative to say about him either though. a licketyquickety mafiaflippity would look really bad for him after he's spent two days trying to downplay the case as cheerled by scum, and going at guiltylion (contrast galron, who has similar opinions but has been more measured in his suspicions), but that's very much an association tell, not something i see as scummy in a vacuum.

[mc esther]

i should elaborate more on pavowski, because my read there doesnt directly engage with the idea that he slipped, though i have covered this earlier in the thread. i dont believe he unthinkingly came into day 2 with the same sort of speculation he was warned against day 1, it's not like he hadnt read the thread. if he is scum, day 2 was a calculated gambit, not a mistake.

[mc esther]

i dont mind the hammer from a "day was getting stagnant and a player i wanted hammered got hammered" perspective, but... what happened to that townread?

[mc esther]

t3, the lack of lickety vote means you believe lickety is town?

[bYeah[/b]
I think the reasons for wagoning him are dumb

emphasis mine

[mc esther]

okay, more accurately, broken tags mine

[mc esther]

ill wait for everyone (especially darby and looker) to post before i vote, but lmao i think everyone already knows im voting t3 today.

[mc esther]

oh, yeah okay, "must eliminate fire" makes this more difficult.

i still maintain that by association, looker is the most likely lickety partner; but im a bit anxious about making that as a definite call, t3 could have easily been bussing.

[mc esther]

adding to "bingle was by far the most aggressive in lickety's defense", there's this very out-of-place vote that never seems to go anywhere and he never really seems to push.

VOTE: Bingle

Let's try something spicy.

[mc esther]

distance from and fake appealing to his scum buddy

i think the vote i quoted is a pretty clear case of distancing, but idk what do you specifically mean here? i dont really understand "distancing" and "appealing to" as compatible attitudes to display towards a player.

[mc esther]

esther, can you please report your case on me because i genuinely can't find it when skimming through your iso

it doesnt really matter because you cant talk me out of it, but it's the d2 post-hammer interaction where i quoted your townread on lickety.

[mc esther]

i dont really love the night kill speculation -- not because it's particularly dangerous at this point, just that, i just think it's all way off-base? like, i just dont really believe that enchant had any motive in mind beyond survivalism, or that guiltylion was a particularly weird kill. especially that latter point; imagine guiltylion's alive today, he's not getting eliminated here is he? and if he's not a viable elimination and you know he's not in your faction, do you really want him around digging through your iso, asking pointed questions, etc.?

idk, i'll admit im less sure on galron.

[mc esther]

Let's imagine we elim an Ice Mafia today. That makes it 1-1-4. Scum wins if they each kill one townie, since they can have a dual victory if they eliminate/endgame town. They would have to coordinate the kill to achieve this though.

So, what's preventing Fire and Ice teams from coordinating the kill once they secure an elim that isn't the Fire team? With no CPR Doc, Mafia can freely coordinate during twilight and there's nothing we can do about it.

[mc esther]

try it and find out

What's your stance on everything right now? General consensus so far is that your slot is most likely the last Fire Mafia. If it isn't you, who do you think it is?

[mc esther]

pavowski, darby, and roden; yes, same old same old. pavowski's posting got kinda weird today imo, but i dont really see how it's alignment-indicative, i think he's just glad that nobody's hounding him for talking about night kills any more (sorry ik im a bit of a bitch about that stuff). darby's frustratingly inactive, but again, i dont think it's alignment indicative, and i dont feel the need to reconsider a read which literally(?) everyone agrees on, i really do believe in the power of consensus. roden's just a hunch.

you might notice that this has implications on your alignment. which read do you disagree with?

[mc esther]

lmao pavowski i am not going to try poe-ing out melo on "just a hunch" (idk actually it would be super cool if it worked).

yeah if roden doesnt turn up something new next he posts im just voting. six days on the deadline isnt exactly super urgent, but i feel like with this level of inactivity we're just crawling towards a deadline elimination anyway.

roden, youve voiced your discomfort with the way this day's playing out -- that's pretty understandable, but youre going to have to turn up an alternate theory then. reluctantly lurking it out until the deadline hits and we eliminate the same person we had pegged at the start of the day isnt an improvement on this situation. auro/t3 ice, lickety/bingle fire seems pretty obviously "the" solution to me (like, lmao, double-iso auro/t3, it's like theyre not even playing in the same game), if you want something else under consideration then youre gonna need to put forward something pretty convincing pretty soon.

[mc esther]

yeah that burst of activity seals it for me

VOTE: looker

[mc esther]

so it's clearly t3, right? like, not only were his lickety reads spectacularly inconsistent, but the self-meta he describes (if it's even reliable at all) doesnt actually rule out the bus, lickety was clearly doomed at that point in the game.

[mc esther]

wait, don't we lose if we lim scum?

[mc esther]

oh shit me and t3 are literally conf

[mc esther]

t3 im not shooting tonight, you can shoot me if you want but you'll lose

[mc esther]

because technically one mafia faction can win over the other. that's not happening unless t3 misplays this though.

[mc esther]

(or both mafia could shoot each other for the town win)

[mc esther]

@t3

i wish we could just do this the easy "you shoot darby i'll shoot pav" way but you made it pretty clear last night that youre not interested in co-operation lol. i'll no-kill, you shoot whichever townie want, and tomorrow we can either eliminate the remaining townie together for the jointwin. or if you really want, you can vote me tomorrow and gamble on the remaining townie kingmaking you (but i dont really get why you'd do this, the role pm says the jointwin is a win).

VOTE: no elimination

[mc esther]

oops. t3 and i arent actually conf to everyone else, that's just my perspective showing. whatever lol.

[mc esther]

pav, although you have no reason to trust this, here's the situation:

if we eliminate either mafia, the remaining mafia endgames town.
if we eliminate town, the winner is pseudo-random. either both mafia shoot each other and town win, one mafia kills town while the other no-kills and they jointwin, or one mafia shoots town but gets shot by the other mafia for a mafia solo win.
if we no-eliminate, the winner is pseudo-random again. i think town probably wants to eliminate a townie (so that if both mafia shoot, they have a higher chance of shooting each other), but im not totally sure on that last point.

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:

actually i want some discussion time

the only thing i dont get is: why on earth shoot auro last night? like, you were clearly gunning for me, and ice was clearly on looker's wagon (as evidenced by the self-hammer), which auro wasnt. so, why shoot auro?

[mc esther]

<3 understandable

[mc esther]

dont get me wrong, im curious even if im not necessarily interested (i think we only need 50% to no-elim?), but i'd rather see t3 and especially darby's posts before going down the "honour system goofy shenanigans" path. i think this day's gonna get a little weird even without that.

[mc esther]

darrrrrrby where you at?

[mc esther]

VOTE: no elimination

[mc esther]

the no-kill was explained here. t3 was obviously trying a misguided solo, so i told him exactly why he couldnt do that. he did it anyway. ngl im a little mad lol, but i misplayed the previous day so i probably shouldnt be.

t3 im not shooting tonight, you can shoot me if you want but you'll lose

@t3

i wish we could just do this the easy "you shoot darby i'll shoot pav" way but you made it pretty clear last night that youre not interested in co-operation lol. i'll no-kill, you shoot whichever townie want, and tomorrow we can either eliminate the remaining townie together for the jointwin. or if you really want, you can vote me tomorrow and gamble on the remaining townie kingmaking you (but i dont really get why you'd do this, the role pm says the jointwin is a win).

[mc esther]

i really like the set-up, it seems pretty swingy, but i think that's kinda the point.

[mc esther]

im not sure if mafia should be allowed to joint. both because i think they could pretty easily trivialize the game with long-term jointwin plans, but also because im not a fan of wincons that dont necessarily match how the players feel about them (like, some players view solo as a "greater" victory while others are more "role pm says win, a win is a win").

[mc esther]

i had an earlier version of that post that suggested draw or even town win from the grave as alternatives, idk how i cut that part out

[mc esther]

oh my GOD
i thought she was forced to kill in the night for some reason so i decided that if esther shot me i wouldn't let her win i completely missed that she was going to nkill AHHHHH

ahahaha it's okay i hard bussed looker the previous day solely because i misread my role pm

[mc esther]

Yeah, committing to the joint win early was a hard mistake because you can’t guess how the other party reacts

yeah, for some reason i decided that 1:1:2 was a win. i spent pretty much the entire game miscounting players and fundamentally misunderstanding the game state, definitely not great play on my end.

[mc esther]

hehe thanks;; hopefully if i stick around a few years and your hiatus isnt too long, we can roll buddies again