Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

Tannnnnner

Also, hello old heads.

[VP Baltar]

Why the keep?

[VP Baltar]

only one town found is required to win the keep - my role pm is green. i don't expect that to be taken at face value, but i believe i can townspew enough for it to become apparent. after that, we only need one more.

Well, we could win by that point if you're town spewing. Best 2 out of 3.

I don't really have strong feelings about where I go. Now that you brought this up, I'm half considering going where you go because I feel fairly confident I can actually town read you at this point (of course, haven't seen your scum game in awhile, so who knows)

[VP Baltar]

Of course, I do have a vacation planned dec.22-27. I think I will be able to post some, but will be semi-occupied during that time. Maybe orientation toward the first or last mini game makes more sense for me?

[VP Baltar]

Hello Baltar!

Oh hello

[VP Baltar]

They are the only two people on this player list I have ever played with, so might help us read each other ?

Separating people by those who have played together isn't the worst idea.

Personally, I think the odds now of separating out all the scum is low. Seems like for that to happen all the town would have to move quickly before scum can vote. So my thinking is to try and optimize for the mini games

[VP Baltar]

i was worried someone else would lock in keep and then we couldnt be there together

What's the appeal of tanner again?

[VP Baltar]

Of the player list, I've played with:

2. Tanner
3. DArby
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo
9. implosion


Tanner is probably only person I think I can town read with reliability. Also fresh off a game with Darby and toog, so that is helpful

[VP Baltar]

The game played with me is not a proper reflection of my game style as I was already put in a bad spot replacing in.

If I can't love you at your worst, I don't deserve your best <3

[VP Baltar]

i think it's likely baltar is townie too. 11, 49, and 57 are obviously angling to go to the same location as me. he knows how paranoid i get of him and how i'm sometimes prone to think he's scum for most bullshit reasons, see that pick your poison game. so unless he's the same petty asshole i am, he's probably town.

Not sure I'm following this logic. Wouldn't the fact that you just misread me give me a psychological advantage to being with you if I was scum?

[VP Baltar]

Can I get a link to the scum PT the other time this ran? I'd like to read the thought process there.

[VP Baltar]

If you're willing to change your reads in response to new information it makes the scumteam's lives drastically more complicated.

Good news! I never know what the fuck I'm doing and everyone looks like scum in my paranoid brain!

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar, what game were we in together?

Feel like we definitely played together many years ago. I couldn't tell you the game though. Definitely not saying I can read you, was just listing people I am pretty sure I've played with before.

[VP Baltar]

here's the old game.
here's the old scum PT.

Thank ya

[VP Baltar]

Forgive me btw. I just assumed scum would be avoiding getting stacked together, so playing to try and lock 3 scum together seemed like a pointless endeavor to begin with, but people are pushing it anyways.

Are they? My read is people are trying to optimize minis, not lock scum in a position.

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

[VP Baltar]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

Abandoned! Boo.

[VP Baltar]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

so last game, baltar didn't remember me being scum in a game that happened some... 9? months ago, but remembered playing with imaginality in a game back in

2009

? damn.

Lol well I knew we had played together, just not specifics of the game. It helps imaginality is like me and rarely changes his avi

[VP Baltar]

I've generally been of the mind that

first movers are +town

because being a first mover is very conspicuous.

I think it's hard to clearly read in isolation.

In the game I played scum moved 2nd

and 6th (and then the last 3 people including the third scum were locked to the last location).

[VP Baltar]

(and also... keep in mind that in that game scum moved 2nd yes, but the rest of the first 5 people to move were town)

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

[VP Baltar]

and that game had ~15 pages over more than two weeks. holy shit, old ms sounds like a different time.

The act of only playing from a computer definitely made the game much more contemplative and very slow. Not sure I would go back to that, but I remember when people would lose their minds about spamming if a game reached page 50.

[VP Baltar]

i'm starting to wonder why did i even /in into this game, considering i utterly hate lylos as town and have never won one when i was the deciding vote. i think i might really be a masochist.

Going to the gate means you don't have to do that

[VP Baltar]

you are adoorbs Tanner

Who is pocketing who here?

[VP Baltar]

here's the old game.
here's the old scum PT.

Here is the one I was in
and the scum chat for it

This game was a scum sweep. The won the keep and then won the wall.

Scum locked in pretty early this game, all three scum were in the first 4 vote ins

which is why i think your early lock in was quite scummy

Agreed.

You agree Luke is scummy or that scum locked in early?

[VP Baltar]

None of Imaginality, Implosion, numberQ, VP Baltar have said anything one way or the other

Speaking for myself, I don't think I'm very good at mechanics, so as I stated I don't have a strong preference. Because of where my vla is likely to land, I think the first or third minigame might make the most sense for me.

My instinct is maybe putting scummy people and one strong town read in the Gate?

Was reading the game implosion linked, and it looked quite easy for scummy to get 1-1-1, so idk how effective strategizing will end up being. Like I said, feels like the best plan is to optimize minigame outcomes.

I will say, I give small +town points to implosion for spouting off his optimal strategy. He talks about it in the scum PT for that old game. Seems like it wouldn't need to be mentioned before I asked for a link if he were scum.

[VP Baltar]

Actually maybe 3 scummiest at the gate?

[VP Baltar]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

I think I'm alright. Depends who it is with though.

[VP Baltar]

Because of where my vla is likely to land, I think the first or third minigame might make the most sense for me.

The games don't happen in any set order, they can be resolved in what ever way we choose.

I think we clear the Gate first? But I am not really sure if thats the best way to do it

Oh good point. Gate seemed logical to me to clear first wince it seems easiest for town.

[VP Baltar]

What about putting who ever is the best at Elo at the gate? A good elo player getting the IC could be good?

No idea how we actually determine who is good at elo and what those criteria are....

[VP Baltar]

So, 3 scummiest goes to the Gate, one becomes an IC, and then that player is left to sort the two scummiest players in the game. So, would be a hard choice.

But if you essentially treat all the group input as the decision, seems like it is actually easy to solve, plus you potentially get the scum to clear a scummy player for you. At least those are the benefits I see. I think in a 50/50, I believe town can figure it out

[VP Baltar]

Implosion, you think there is an optimal order to the games?

[VP Baltar]

would give the most surprising information if scum were to win it

What do you mean?

[VP Baltar]

I'd rather force scum to clear someone who is good at scum hunting as IC, than have scum clear a lurker/bad player. So I'd rather put the strong and towny players in Gate, resolve that early, and then get the players in Wall to listen to those in Gate.

I suppose that's a good point that is the inverse of what I suggested. I think the outcome is similar in that you're getting a read on someone we are more likely to be reading incorrectly.

[VP Baltar]

-but #74 and questioning VP's townread on him in #103 seems town

I never stated a townread on Tanner. Haven't made up my mind there just yet

[VP Baltar]

like, i was reading along, and i started thinking how baltar's posting mostly mech discussion and not many reads, which struck me as somewhat +scum (citation needed maybe, i'll check at some point). then i came to your post, and i thought how it's nice we're mindmelding, and then boom, you're actually townreading him because ???.

Me, a player who is bad at mech, trying to talk to people to better understand the approach to a mech heavy setup in the first 24 hours of the thread is +scum?

Pardon me, but I have a hard time thinking you actually believe this.

Additionally, do you think I am not forming reads from these conversations? You literally just saw me as town in a game where it took me forever to form solid reads, and only after a painful cycling through of some bad reads.

[VP Baltar]

hm. i just realized none of those three are assigned yet. we could shove them into the same location.

Looks like a potential town bloc to me. So sure. Where would you put us?

(Also, only two people are assigned, so making a point like that group is avoiding assignment sounds forced)

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, what's your read on Ari?

[VP Baltar]

you formed a townlean on me

Huh? In this game?

[VP Baltar]

where the hell did you get the idea that that is the point i was trying to make?

It was a very clear subtext of what you said. Seemed like you're trying to shade

[VP Baltar]

more likely town than not.

My hottest take is that I do not think you and Ari are T/T.

I find the interactions between you two performative. I am not certain who is what yet unfortunately

[VP Baltar]

You said you "just realized" we weren't assigned...as if that were some kind of surprising insight to you. You either chose your words poorly, or you were choosing words to make it seem like some kind of 'ah ha' that in reality makes no sense.

[VP Baltar]

I think maybe I could go to Keep with you, it would be a fun date <3

Where would you like me to go?

if we're playing seriously - i'd want you to go to gate if you're town. i want you to be town, but it's obviously too early to tell.

gosh you can't tell I am town already?

Performative

[VP Baltar]

Like, maybe this is how Ari is with you all the time...in which case that's meta I don't know.

But if I was in your position, I'd find those kind of interactions with me scummy and pocketing efforts.

[VP Baltar]

Do you think implosion/vp/imaginality is a legitimate solve?

[VP Baltar]

it's the moment i realized i can use that to try to force a loss in you indeed are the scumteam.

You just realized a major mechanic in the setup that you've already commented is unlikely to actually happen

[VP Baltar]

it took me a moment to connect "scum lose if all three are in the same place" and "i have three people that i think are scum" into "we can force them into the same location". what's your point?

My point is that this sounds like a reach to explain a questionable comment.

I also do not believe your solve, further making your realization sound forced.

If you told me "I think there is scum in this group of three", sure I could believe that. Maybe I'm even your top suspect. But to say that legit seems like a solve? Seems like a major stretch to me.

[VP Baltar]

what "questionable" comment, the one where i apparently shaded people for doing the exact same thing i am doing?

Yes.

why does it seem like you think i am so insanely confident in that solve? like. it was one (1) post that made me think that the three of you might be buddies. none of you have any preference between minigames, and nobody has any ideas on how to assign the rest of us. we can test my theory - if i'm right, town wins. if i'm wrong, nothing is lost. i don't have to be insanely confident in that being the correct solve to realize there is no harm in test it?

It's not about the confidence level. It just seems like a terrible solve. I know I'm town, so I know you're wrong there. Implosion looks fairly town in approach based upon the scum PT in the other game. So that's at least 2/3 that look like bad solves to me. What can I say, I have higher expectations from you.

[VP Baltar]

Why do you have imaginality as "potential town bloc" worthy right now?

He's most out there with reads. Those reads are probably overstated even, which seems like a riskier move than scum would need to take at like 10 pages.

I'm not confident fully sorting imaginality yet, but that's why I said potentially.

[VP Baltar]

As for why Ari/Tanner potentially being S/S, consider that my own tinfoil theory.

Basically that the whole "we wanna go in the same location" thing could be aimed at making town wary of letting you go in the same location. So you end up in different locations. Or if you do both end up in keep and have to swap one of you, you use it as a point to argue that you/Ari are being swapped so Ari won't vote you.

I don't know how likely it is but I do disagree with people who are saying it's too limiting for S/S to play like that.

That said it could be S/T with her wanting to buddy you. I think in that scenario they'd still nightswap you if you end up in same location so she doesn't have to vote you. But I could see that leading to you and others strengthening your townreads on her. Whereas again I see her play even if you're town as a perfectly viable scum tactic.

Whereas I don't know if Ari as town would be willing to risk the game on voting for you as an unknown alignment.

This reads like a fever dream. I cannot imagine ari/Tanner is s/s.

Filtering back through to find what made you think this, in 103 Implosion expressed a town read on VP and Tanner. Then imaginality said that it was a VP read on Tanner. So VP was tangentially involved with that discussion?

I don't think I buy into this team solve

yeah, imaginality mixed up implo and vp. i'm already suspicious of imaginality for his very weird read on vp. so i think scum is more likely to mix up two people if they're of same alignment. and the imaginality's read of vp slightly smells like s/s, so.... here we are.

This also sounds insane.

You think imaginality couldn't remember the name of his potential scum buddy? That just doesn't make sense as a goof scum would make when, presumably, they are interacting with their buddies in day chat more than anyone. Right?

Seems fair to call out imaginality's explanation as convoluted (I can barely follow it), but to think the mixup would be scum scum seems to not make sense to me.


pedit @ Tanner -- it's not that it's hard to fake. it's more to the point you're making. I often see early reads lists get criticized, so that's why I'm saying it's more risky as scum. Anyhow, I am NOT saying I'm absolutely town reading imaginality here. Just saying it seemed +transparency early in the game that was likely to draw heat...which is not necessarily something scum are motivated to do.

[VP Baltar]

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

[VP Baltar]

i like how you think that scum!me would care enough to powerwolf and push through certain locations because...?

Oh I absolutely think you'd powerwolf enough to try to get 1-1-1. You're good enough to do that in a natural way.

[VP Baltar]

I don't think its important to think about if tanners 3 is a legitimate solve or not.

things like getting all scum into 1 location are pretty unlikely

its more about taking a shot because what have you got to lose?

What's your actual read on Tanner?

[VP Baltar]

If I'm grouping people, might be something like this:

numberQ, Toogeloo, Tanner

Lukewarm, Aristeia, implosion

VP Baltar, DArby, imaginality



Maybe flip Tanner and DArby

[VP Baltar]

oooh, spicy. any reasons for those? who goes to which one?

Given the keep is set, I'd like to put my strongest town read there.

I'm also abiding by your request because that doesn't bother me, and if you're town maybe it will help you.

And then it is just separating the low content slots of number and Darby. Obv if I put you with my group, it is kind of a fun twist on your request, but may not be good trying to sort two low info slots in the same game. (Though as I'm typing this, I'm thinking 'sorting two in one game means maybe you'll only lose one game!')

As far as who goes to what game, I don't have strong feelings, but maybe Gate, keep, tower in that order?

[VP Baltar]

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

Yeah, wall sorry.

[VP Baltar]

luke, do you think i should be townreading you by now?

I don't know that I have a good answer to that. In my games that I have gotten town read day 1, I was unclear why it happened, and the same is true for being scum read day 1. I always feel like I am a shining beacon of townieness at all times, but then it does not always play out that way. But I am here, and doing my best

Presumably you thought we would town read you and that is why the keep was a good idea for you, no?

[VP Baltar]

I'm getting kind of bored with the setup, and mostly just looking to play some elo.

This mother fucker lol

[VP Baltar]

This is simple. Tanner, imaginality and I go to the gate.

[VP Baltar]

I will also vote gate unless I hear otherwise.

[VP Baltar]

oh wait, baltar said originally said we should go at wall, not gate. and imaginality talked about going to the gate. meh, i don't dislike it. i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can, but considering this is one of those games where pretty much everyone suspects me to some degree, me being at the gate is not actually a very clear-cut decision for scum. alright.

Almost posted that I didn't remember saying that, but I also have Swiss cheese brain and didn't have been too busy with work this morning to go fact check.

Fwiw, I think the three of us are just the right amount of ambiguous to make an IC clear useful regardless.

[VP Baltar]

is it a bad thought that I think maybe scum!you doesn't want to go to keep with town!me because you would feel guilty about lying to me?

You legitimately thought this???

[VP Baltar]

is it a bad thought that I think maybe scum!you doesn't want to go to keep with town!me because you would feel guilty about lying to me?

You legitimately thought this???

yes

I think you're lying right now.

[VP Baltar]

is it a bad thought that I think maybe scum!you doesn't want to go to keep with town!me because you would feel guilty about lying to me?

You legitimately thought this???

yes

I think you're lying right now.

ok

You know what happens to liars...

[VP Baltar]

@numberQ -- do you usually have a hard time keeping up with games?

[VP Baltar]

I don't particularly care if anyone townreads me

I am in the keep

it is boring for me if someone just townreads me and votes me because that would require 0 thought on my part.

I actually prefer the thrill of getting to vote and feeling the thrill or agony of being right or wrong.

I don't understand why you made this post.

[VP Baltar]

Rephrased as a question: why did you make that post?

[VP Baltar]

I am responding to you saying you think I'm mafia.

I don't think I said I think you're mafia. I said I think you're lying, with the implication being that's anti-town.

Yes, I am applying pressure to you. But I actually have not made up my mind on you yet

[VP Baltar]

ok but what's the point of applying pressure to me?

I am gathering information to make reads off.

I don't really care if the scum think they are going to play off that because I almost never put all my thoughts on the table until I'm ready to push something.

I will go all out tunneling someone to see how they act and then call them town. Ill flip on locktown reads ive had all game if i see something solidly scummy. Good luck to scum trying to plan off my reads, because even I can't do that.

[VP Baltar]

If Sherlock Holmes was a smooth brain with a drinking problem, that'd be me!

[VP Baltar]

Well he had a cocaine problem, so it's pretty close

Weeeeeeeee

VOTE: gate

[VP Baltar]

I don't think so. Only person who hasn't weighed in is Darby and he may be scum

[VP Baltar]

well then. gonna need to get some drinks for this game after all.

i do have some Thoughts(tm), but i think it's a good idea to let the rest of you speak first.

Oh do you now!

Imma be VLA until tomorrow evening for me, just a heads up to everyone

[VP Baltar]

well then. gonna need to get some drinks for this game after all.

i do have some Thoughts(tm), but i think it's a good idea to let the rest of you speak first.

Oh do you now!

Imma be VLA until tomorrow evening for me, just a heads up to everyone

you wanna fuckin call me scum for it huh???

Obv ur scum

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

[VP Baltar]

took you until now?

I don't know what this means. Like I said, I'm not really reading the game yet. Just saw you were IC. What am I missing?

[VP Baltar]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Would flipping imaginality provide an inverse associative...if so, doesn't it make significantly more sense to flip the gate first since that's a 50/50?

[VP Baltar]

i mean, the whole point of the setup is that there's one scum in each of the three locations. and you're going "wait, there's scum at the gate?"

what was your thought process wrt our location when you saw that i was ic'ed?

I thought scum can place wherever they want as long as it's not all three at one location?

If it has to be one at each, then my thought is your imaginality read was right and let's flip it

[VP Baltar]

i mean like. if you thought a location can be without scum, what did you think the three of us were even gonna do lol

I thought scum could try to manipulate it for a free win...though now I'm saying it that is stupid since they could do that 100 percent of the time.

Good news is that means imaginality is 100 percent scum and he did a reads list d1

[VP Baltar]

well imaginality is already flipped fypov so why don't you tell me what that tells you about the layout of the rest of the game?

I will but like I said, I can't really read the game until late tomorrow.

Who do you think is scum at the gate?

[VP Baltar]

well imaginality is already flipped fypov so why don't you tell me what that tells you about the layout of the rest of the game?

I will but like I said, I can't really read the game until late tomorrow.

Who do you think is scum at the gate?

I have some thoughts but I'd like to hear yours first

You've heard mine about the gate. Proceed.

[VP Baltar]

I am trying to pick your brain to see what information that gives you about the rest of the game and why it might be so.

Right. Me getting your thoughts also is helpful though. Two way street and all. I'm merely asking you to comment on the gate. I understand wanting me to talk first on the other games.

[VP Baltar]

Toogeloo
- in my head I thought they were lurking but they've posted more than I remembered, probably a town point as my scumdar pings louder than my towndar
- some good questioning of Ari
- I'm doubtful of his idea that it's better not to give reads yet but doesn't seem like a stance scum would take

Looking at imaginality's wall post right now because snow and ice has canceled my dinner plans...

This read looks very fake reasons to me. Other than "some good questioning of Ari", imaginality is hand waving here by stating 'these things might be scummy, but ill actually town read Toog for them'. Which is unfortunate because I had kind of had gut town pings on Toog.

[VP Baltar]

DArby
-rejected a couple of suggestions but no apparent intent to figure out if they came from wrong town or scum
-don't feel like he's trying to scum hunt
-don't feel like he's trying to help town progress

This scum read on Darby may be accurate, but feels made up at that point in the game perhaps. Darby wasn't hardly even in the game, but imaginality had him at the bottom of the list for not helping town progress and not scum hunting.

Seems overly aggressive read when few people were truly scumhunting D1

[VP Baltar]

Those are hip reads, but probably where I'll put my first focus tomorrow to see if my instincts read true with some deeper diving.

[VP Baltar]

Reminder to myself to check if imaginality gave his reads list before or after I suggested the sort

[VP Baltar]

oh yeah, so i don't forget, question for baltar: could you compare your townread of implosion in this game to your townread of bingle in the pick your poison game? and i'd like everyone else to ignore this.

Ouch haha.

To your point, I do have a weakness for townreading people who I find charming/enjoyable to play with...at least at first. I try to play this game for fun, so that is appealing to me. I can't recall specifically what was townpinging me on Bingle D1but I believe it was because he felt like he was in active engagement with the game. I felt early on that game like scum were sitting back since there were obv townies doing that too. It gave them cover.

I think the difference here with implosion is that I got my strongest town ping on him because he revealed his optimal town strategy in thread here BEFORE I asked him to post the scum PT from the last game, where he stated that strategy to his scum buddies. I suspect scum wouldn't be offering what they thought was legitimate good advice to town early on in the game. Could have all been a well thought out plan by implo knowing someone would look at that scum PT, but that's a lot of forethought.

Because I feel the need to defend my honor since the implication of this question is I'm a big dummy who aligns with scum D1 (not wrong entirely!)...I was among the first to shift my bingle read in that game and was questioning him as scum, but pooky was so obsessed with me by that point I couldn't overcome the noise. (I also had enchant as the most likely bingle partner, so maybe it doesn't mean much!)

If you want more specifics on why I townread bingle that game, I can go fetch them. I'm just not at a computer until later today and that sounds like too much work to skim for on my phone.

[VP Baltar]

my question is moreso that i'm seeing certain other parallels between you townreading bingle that game and you townreading implosion this game. mainly, townreading them *for* doing mechanical analysis (and i guess sounding kinda genuine while they're doing it). and i find it kind of strange that you would townread implo for that right after you got burned townreading bingle for it.

See dummy part.

But I guess I just think on net, implo is more likely to be town here since there us a correlated piece of evidence (the scum PT) to show he is posting in earnest. To your point, it's not a free pass for implo and I'll still objectively analyze his play in the game. He's not locktown for that one thing.

[VP Baltar]

Probably also worth saying that because we couldn't scum hunt in earnest D1, I could only look at people doing mech discussion mostly. Shrug.

[VP Baltar]

My drive was very snowy and took longer than I had planned. I'll get to this game tomorrow.

[VP Baltar]

(summoning 100)

You talking about me?

[VP Baltar]

Like that's some legit dumb shit to say

[VP Baltar]

Oh you replaced Darby. Lol.

This is going to be easy mode

[VP Baltar]

And my apologies, further. I never intend to get people riled up.

Too late. Mistake was made.

[VP Baltar]

What was dumb shit? The "summoning 100" meme?

Yeah, trying to shade me for being vla when I said I was going to be vla

[VP Baltar]

Why do you feel upset by this?

I'm not upset. Not sure why Pav is taking it as me being mad. I just don't tolerate slimey call outs.

[VP Baltar]

Oh you replaced Darby. Lol.

This is going to be easy mode

Can you explain this comment please?

As in, I was already sus of that slot in relation in imaginality. Big surprise they try to shade me.

[VP Baltar]

*in relation to

[VP Baltar]

@pav - I was not mad and you don't need to apologize for hurting my feelings or something. We're cool.

I cannot believe imaginality posted another wall. I apologize in advance for people having to read my response to what is no doubt nonsense.

[VP Baltar]

@pav - I was not mad and you don't need to apologize for hurting my feelings or something. We're cool.

Also, I had just finished a white knuckled drive for 8 hours on an icy interstate, so I was definitely short tempered about what I thought was opportunistic shading. I apologize too.

[VP Baltar]

Starting my read over coffee now. Probably will take me a good part of the day since I'd like to fully read everything on D2 so far. I'll try to keep responses to a reasonable amount so I'm not spamming the thread.

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads. Feel like the town motivation for me to be in the same game as Tanner would also be low since he almost always suspects me. Maybe it would have happened anyhow, but seems like I would not seek that situation out as scum.

I think Tanner also had a question along these lines? I need to go fetch it.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, do you remember why you wanted me/you/imaginality at the wall originally?

I think I was just being considerate of the fact you said you hated xylos and the gate seemed the most like that straightforward? I didn't really have a strong feeling about game placement when compared to thinking about who was in what game.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, if you're scum who needs to ic one of me/imaginality and 1v1 the other one, who do you pick for what and why?

I guess I would probably IC you because you have played with me too much and are more convincing/likeable than me. I don't know that I could win a 1v1 with you. That is also exactly why I would avoid being with you at the gate though, so...

[VP Baltar]

oh yeah, one more thing. for like... almost a week now, i've been coming up with a ted talk regarding the three of us that are at the gate. i wanted to post it after baltar and imaginality give their thoughts on their ~opponent~ and who is most likely scum with them and etc. but also i would like to post it at the time that both of them are online and reading, since i would like some sorta real-time reactions. so, yeah, uh, hopefully that happens soon and i won't have to stay up until like 4am for it.

I'm semi-around. I do think I'd like to catch up before I real time with you though because it will be more productive for you if I'm not semi lost. I could probably real time with you a bit tomorrow

[VP Baltar]

Now bedridden and covered in burns,

Lol just reading the flavor now. Fortunately, I got you some skin balm for Christmas, Tanner!

[VP Baltar]

Baltar - Can you tell me why you were against a you, imaginality, implosion mini game trio?

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

[VP Baltar]

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard. More just like, if Tanner is scum, they have a reason for that suggestion, so let me make a suggested change to the plan and see how he reacts. I also meant what I said early in the game that I can actually read Tanner reasonably well, so I didn't see harm for myself in being in the same game with him.

[VP Baltar]

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads

Can you expound on this?

Tanner wanted me and imaginality in the same game based on his scum reads, so that was the first building block I put in place when I suggested the sort.

[VP Baltar]

But I am trying to figure out why Tanner suggesting you+imaginality+implo was bad, but you+imaginality+tanner was fine. Could that not have been tanner literally just swapping himself with his scum buddy, and achieving the same split?

Because I was the one suggesting Tanner join us? I'm not really following what you're saying I guess.

The point of me suggesting that change is that it was an unforeseen deviation from what Tanner proposed while still incorporating part of it. Unless you're saying Tanner predicted I would make that suggestion?

[VP Baltar]

hm. i just realized none of those three are assigned yet. we could shove them into the same location.

Looks like a potential town bloc to me. So sure. Where would you put us?

(Also, only two people are assigned, so making a point like that group is avoiding assignment sounds forced)

why were you at first fine with this suggestion?

Ah got you. I was already town reading implosion after the scum PT thing, and I couldn't really say I had a scum read on imaginality at that point, so like I said in the post, seemed like a potential town bloc, which would mean we were maybe closer to forcing scum together.

I would guess I had also not yet had the idea of flipping you with imaginality and me as a way to guarantee you weren't duping me.

[VP Baltar]

I would guess I had also not yet had the idea of flipping you with imaginality and me as a way to guarantee you weren't duping me.

okay, so. it occurred to you that i might be mafia, and that i'm trying to brute force the three of you because you're 2-1 and because i just love powerwolfing so much. so you instead decided to include me with you and imaginality, because... you thought imaginality is more likely to be scum than implo? like, as far as i remember, you were townreading both of them at that point. wouldn't including me with two of you, if i'm scum, help me achieve the 1-1-1 split from your pov? like, what was the danger of me here?

That's a lot of thinking and assumptions.

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I? My memory feels like he was a bit middle of the pack to me, but I was fine being in a bloc with him because who knows on a D1 where you can't really scumhunt.

I do think you're a power wolf in general and think a TON about mafia, whether you agree or not, so in my simpleton brain where I know I'm going to suck at gaming the mech and we are likely to end up at 1-1-1 anyhow from what I saw in the other iteration of this setup, I felt the best thing I could do was turn your proposal slightly to include you. That way if you were outsmarting me with some big plan, you'd be subjected to whatever you had planned for me.

Since you went along with it easily, I figured that was probably town points because it seems unlikely you could have predicted I would do that.

[VP Baltar]

Guardian Assignment Tracker 1.7 [FINAL]

Location	Guardians
Gate (3)	VP Baltar (418), imaginality (424), Tanner (429)
Keep (3)	Lukewarm (28), Aristeia (36), implosion (428)
Wall (3)	Toogeloo (422), numberQ (423), DArby (Autoassigned with 429)
Unassigned (0)

0 Guardians remain unassigned. Day 1 is over.

No win condition has been achieved.

I do want to think about the order people went in for a bit..


Luke[K] -> Ari[K] -> VPB[G] -> Tooge[W] -> NQ[W] -> Imag[G] -> Implo[K] -> Tanner[G] -> Pavo[W]

What does this mean?

[VP Baltar]

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

I mean I definitely said that. I'm just saying it was not like I was simping for him in thread or something. That's why I said "potential" townbloc. I was not certain on him at all, but more in the null to potential town range. I still do think it's incredibly dumb for scum to post a reads list like that and it was the first thing I went back to now that I know he's scum.

[VP Baltar]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

[VP Baltar]

VPB are you going to respond to Imag's case on you?

Yeah, when I get to it. I'm trying to answer questions people are asking me and do chores around my house and reread the 10-15 pages I didn't read when I was on vacation. What's the rush?

[VP Baltar]

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Just saying what I was honestly thinking at the time. I don't even know what scum motivation you think exists.

[VP Baltar]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

I think 1) you are mistaken that I couldn't agree with what ari was saying and also be suspicious that she could be scum early voting, and 2) I don't think you're right that I "180ed" on that stance. I pointed out to implo that facts from his other game showed scum moved second, ie they were among the first movers.

The big post I opened up with is sectioned off by the player I was talking about. You can just read your section, and you will have all of the context for this discussion with Tanner

[VP Baltar]

Agfkcubbs phone posting

[VP Baltar]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

I think 1) you are mistaken that I couldn't agree with what ari was saying and also be suspicious that she could be scum early voting, and 2) I don't think you're right that I "180ed" on that stance. I pointed out to implo that facts from his other game showed scum moved second, ie they were among the first movers.

The big post I opened up with is sectioned off by the player I was talking about. You can just read your section, and you will have all of the context for this discussion with Tanner

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

[VP Baltar]

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

Why not? Scum can say things that are true and I did agree with it.

I don't there is any guarantee scum had to be among first movers, but I do think they have motivation to do so. It is risky of course because scum are also likely concerned with looking like they are trying to control too much.

To me this feels like you thinking about something in black and white, and what I'm saying is "here is what I think is generally likely, but there areany ways this can play out".

I think it was fairly obvious I was more suspicious of ari than you on d1 given I put a lot more questions to her that she kept avoiding.

Pedit: yes, to some degree I am talking through what I think optimal scum strategy would be. Doesn't fully mean that's what happened

[VP Baltar]

Then I guess that brings me back to

it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract

What is your read on me?

I'll come to a conclusion after I read. I like that you're pressing me on specifics. At the end of D1, I remember finding some of your posts a bit hard to follow, but maybe had you at lean town. I'd like to read your big posts in full and see how much I agree or disagree with your conclusions, and how you got there. That tends to help me read someone.

[VP Baltar]

Not really

it fits the worldview that I have and it also fits other worlds where I am wrong

Can I ask why you answered Luke but not me when I asked you about that post? Unless I missed it.

[VP Baltar]

Since he knew we were S/T rather than S/S this really doesn't earn town points for him. It's not like he was obviously more likely to be voted out than me if he gets paired with me. If we were S/S then agreeing to have Tanner's scum reads in one slot is riskier knowing we'd have to swap one out but that's obviously not the case here.

What in the world are you even talking about. How is me agreeing to incorporate Tanner's idea an indication that I would know people's alignments? That makes no sense.

The reason I complain about your walls is because what little I have read is complete nonsense like this and you use a lot of words to say it. So now I have to go deconstruct said nonsense because, let's be real, most people glaze over at wall posts.

Also, don't act like I'm spamming the thread by answering direct questions people are asking me. Scum shading will get you nowhere darling.

[VP Baltar]

Not really

it fits the worldview that I have and it also fits other worlds where I am wrong

Can I ask why you answered Luke but not me when I asked you about that post? Unless I missed it.

?

I answered you right after you asked me.

I missed it then. Apologies

[VP Baltar]

Tanner wanted me and imaginality in the same game based on his scum reads, so that was the first building block I put in place when I suggested the sort.

I don't understand this tbh

What do you mean? Like why I would make that decision?

[VP Baltar]

I don't understand your thought process

I was thinking Tanner had expressed strong feelings in thread, so it was something we could test. If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game. I also think the move shows my own townieness because I'm willing to go into a game based on someone else's decision. Of course, I also made the proposed move to include Tanner because then it isn't exactly what he wanted, in case he was scum.

I didn't see a lot of downside to that move and several upsides.

[VP Baltar]

If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game.

How did you decide that town!Tanner's instincts are much better than your own instincts in early game?

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

[VP Baltar]

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

How does Datisi being able to read Ico very well translate to the rest of the players in this game?

I'm saying datisi is better at scumhunting D1 than me and I am frequently wrong. It's not particular to Ico (though of course they have their own reputation).

[VP Baltar]

Or do you just mean you wouldn't go anywhere near tanner if you were mafia?

Tanner scum reads me often, even though I think I've only ever been scum with them once before (maybe twice, cant remember)? Most times, Tanner comes around to read me properly, but not always. If I'm scum, that seems like a bad gamble for me. Even as town, it is risky, but I do think I have consistently been able to read Datisi town in games we have had together, so that's the upside for me. If I feel like I can consistently get an accurate town read on datisi and they end up being town this game, that's an easier sub game for me.

[VP Baltar]

why would you go "i was gonna follow tanner there bc his early game reads are better than mine" when my early game read was that you're scum with imaginality?

Well I know I'm not scum, but that doesn't mean you're not right about imaginality. Much to Ari's disappointment, I don't see you as perfect. Just better than me.

[VP Baltar]

mmm
okay, i'll think about that tomorrow

how far are you in catching up?

Not far yet, but I will get it done today. At the grocery store at the moment. But after lunch I'll have time to just read.

[VP Baltar]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

What made you say this Ari?

I definitely don't agree with resolving the keep (lowest odds of winning) earlier when the other two games clearly have better odds of town winning.

[VP Baltar]

is this dumb tell too stupid to be a real dumb tell

then again it is vp baltar

lol

[VP Baltar]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality

, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

Have we played together before?

[VP Baltar]

Did you mean to say that the wall should not go first? Or are you saying that you think we are gonna lose the keep?

Yes, I'm saying the wall should probably be the last thing we resolve so we have the most information. Ari was suggesting it should go earlier and the gate should go last...which does not make sense.

[VP Baltar]

There's so much pointless mech talk in this game.. fucking kill me.

[VP Baltar]

Regardless of all of this, one thing I am interested in is that VP Baltar was the first one to suggest me as the third person in Keep. I think that's fairly + town for him if it turns out that Keep was all-town pre-swap. Which is another reason to resolve Gate later.

While this makes sense from your perspective, I'm not quite sure how this is supposed to make sense for everyone else.

[VP Baltar]

So you think we should go keep -> gate -> wall

Unless Tanner feels like he has a strong read, that makes sense on sheer stats.

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game, in which case we could knock out our game first. But that's going to be Tanner's call after we chat I suppose.

[VP Baltar]

I want Pavo/Tooges/

Vpb to try harder

if they are town.

I was literally still VLA at this point and was keeping the thread informed of my VLA status.


What did you think I should have been doing at that point?

[VP Baltar]

This imaginality case is so dumb and long I am not going to quote his giant quote wall. I'll address his numbered points and why they are bad:

1. Fake confusion about mech

- Nope. I just hate mech and I don't really want to spend a bunch of time reading it, especially when I was heading into a vacation. I get shit wrong all the time.

2. He tried to rush the Gate vote today:

- Yeah, I think it's very obvious I'm town based upon the way I worked with Tanner's reads to suggest a game sort. It literally makes no sense for me to do that as scum with how it went down. I think the Gate is a very easy solve.

3. VP has backtracked on his takes under pressure:

-imaginality references the "first movers" conversation. which I did not back track on. I pointed out how implosion was incorrect, but said that I think he had a point that the very first vote is likely to come from town. This is an intentional misread of a conversation that was actually quite clear.

- the other example of "backtracking" he cites is about tanner suggesting he and I go to the same location...which is so incoherent, I don't even know what to say. I've explained my thought process very thoroughly in this thread.

4. VP wanted to get a lurker at the Gate

- this is imaginality arguing his mech talk is better than my mech talk. I don't even know what the VP!scum motivation here lol.

5. Poor excuse for lack of D1 scumhunting:

- this is pretty LOL when I was one of the few people trying to do actual scumhunting D1 and someone (I think ari) told me to knock it off because it was too helpful to scum. Like, this is imaginality's "objective" point about me. Here is a counterpoint...I did far more scumhunting D1 than imaginality. I have taken far more firm stances and done more to push the game forward toward what I see as a very pro-town direction in my sort suggestion.

Imaginality has meanwhile made time machine jokes and spewed thousands of words that lack firm conclusions on players.

6. VP omitted the IC possibility when suggesting Tanner go to the Gate early on D1:

The end of this point says "actually this one is a stretch"...but hey post it anyhow in a spoiler so it looks cool.

[VP Baltar]

ok, I got up through page 28, but that's about where today started.

So here is where I am sitting:

I think the scumteam is imaginality, Aristeia, and Toog.

Imaginality:

Posting an absolute shit ton of IIoA since the start of the game. I dare you to try and think of one original direction imaginality has moved this game. Just one. He is the unbuttered white bread of scumhunting.

This is a gem of an example:

- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.

I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.

One other thought I had: if you don't have a clear view on whether the scum in our game is VP or me, it might be useful to see where VP and I differ in our reads on other games and resolve those game(s) first to help you decide between us.

- Wall: I want to re-read before commenting as I didn't have a strong read on either Toogeloo or numberQ D1. I think implosion is town because wouldn't scum implosion just stay put at Keep? So for me, the only scenario implosion is scum is if one of Luke/Ari is also scum.

- Keep: if either of Ari or Luke is scum, by play alone my hunch is still on Ari scum. If either of them is scum they likely brought in Pav mainly to swap out implosion, which implies the scum among them thinks Pav was a better choice to swap in than me/Tanner/numberQ/Toogeloo. The Luke - Pav history might be a point against Luke here?

The alternative scenario of Luke-Ari town and scum dumping the DArby/Pav slot into Keep is also very possible. Weighing against that somewhat: I don't recall anyone trying to angle against implo joining Keep? Rereading that part of the D1 discussion is high on my to do list.

The analysis of the Gate makes no sense. He is hand waving and saying Tanner IC points to me...but never gives a reason.

But the real gem here is when you read his Wall and Keep analysis. What is he really saying here? who is he saying are my scum buddies? There are no solid conclusions....just a lot of words to lull you to sleep.

Aristeia

Ari is also absolutely chock full of IIoA and mech talk. Read her ISO from today. She's not scum hunting. What she is actively doing is trying to pocket Luke. She town reads him for being "genuine and warm". She's been dodgy about reads all game, but I didn't realize she was still doing that until I read up today. She states her solve is VP-Pav-Toog. But I couldn't tell you why she thinks that because she has given no real reasons or even done scumhunting that I can tell. Her ISO is just a steam of buddying people and mech talk that is quite bad. I think I will quote some specifics on this tomorrow if I get some time.

Toogeloo

I can't remember who said it (implosion I think), but Toog's opener post struck me as weirdly put together and complete. Toog just LOLhammered me in a Xylo while barely giving me a chance to speak. They don't strike me as the contemplative type. Whoever it was said it was more likely that scum spent much of the night thinking about the game and how to open the day, as compared to town who had a long night and the holiday. I totally agree with that (admittedly biased because that fits my own town experience.)

I think these three also have interesting interactions. Ari and imaginality are kind of both poking around me and trying to suggest strats for the Keep that put Ari in a position of power.

Toog seems like a bit of a sacrificial lamb at the Wall with Ari scum reading them for unclear reasons...but with NQ posting fairly incomprehensibly, maybe they think Toog has an OK shot of coming out of that game alive?

[VP Baltar]

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game

can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?

Tanner has played with town me a shit ton. I'm not that hard to read.

Here is my town meta: Am I doing things with pro-town motivation? If yes, I am town.

[VP Baltar]

ok. I think I've spent like 6 hours today playing mafia. I am going to sign off now.

Tanner, I'll be around at my usual hours tomorrow. We tend to have overlap early in my day. Let's chat then.

[VP Baltar]

Sorry, few other things from my notes I should just dump in the thread so I don't forget:

Pav, how confident are you that Luke is scum here?


Luke, can I ask why you're townreading Ari? Based off your posting, a lot of it seems to be related to Tanner interactions where you were assuming Tanner was scum. That wasn't true, obv. Are you still townreading Ari based on those old assumptions, or are there other reasons?

Last, this thought occurred to me as I was reading:

if ari is scum and luke is town, getting Tanner to join the keep early would have made scum life much easier by locking up a game with a scum almost immediately D1. It also would have set up Ari to keep trying to pocket Tanner and get a town vote given Luke was not fond of Tanner. (This might be galaxy braining too much though.)

[VP Baltar]

If I could see my way to agreeing with you on Ari / Toog, I guess I'd be obligated to go with you on yourself, hmm? Hmm.

I'm not sure it matters since it is only Tanner making the choice, but sure.

[VP Baltar]

oh VOTE: imaginality

hadn't done that yet.

[VP Baltar]

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

I organized a badass sort. Doesn't get more obvtown than that.

[VP Baltar]

Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?

Sure, happy to have you but I'm not certain certain you're town either so...

I do think imaginality's read on Darby looked fake af.

[VP Baltar]

What makes NQ your top town read? Why is implosion low?

None of your reads have reasons.

[VP Baltar]

Imag is a weaker 1v1 player than VPB

What are you basing this on? He and I don't even have a completed game, let alone a time we faced off.

And follow up question, who in this game do you think is better at 1v1s than me?

Like your whole premise for me being scum seems to be that I wanted to face off with imaginality....but he doesn't seem like the weakest player in the game I could have tried to go up against, so....

[VP Baltar]

Imag not hesitating to vote skews townie to me, VPB "forgetting" to do it feels like scum who is awkward and unsure of the "right" time to do something.

I'm strong. I'm weak. I'm smart and fake. I'm dumb and awkward.

[VP Baltar]

I linked my last game with Ari earlier. It had me + Ari + Tanner (on his main, Datisi), all three were town

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87284

That is what I have been comparing her to.

I looked through Aris ISO in this game a bit last night and it really does not look like her iso here at all. In that game she is actively questioning several people. She has reads that can be seen and shifting under questioning. There is some of the gimmicky stuff, but much less.

Now compare to this game, it is 80% gimmick and her reads come out of nowhere for flimsy reasons.

[VP Baltar]

Implo, had you been suspicious of Ari before I posted?

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, do you know what Ari's main is? No need to tell me. Just wondering yes or no.

[VP Baltar]

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

I organized a badass sort. Doesn't get more obvtown than that.

Can you explain this in more detail please?

also you didn't respond to this so I am reposting it.

Please let me know how your sort is "pro-town" motivated.

This has been discussed at length in the thread. I didn't respond because it is a busy work question. My reasoning for organizing and why I think it is clearly protown given Tanner's now known alignment has already been stated.

[VP Baltar]

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game

can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?

This question is still open, you can see the line of questioning it led to here:

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game

can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?

Tanner has played with town me a shit ton. I'm not that hard to read.

Here is my town meta: Am I doing things with pro-town motivation? If yes, I am town.

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

I organized a badass sort. Doesn't get more obvtown than that.

Can you explain this in more detail please?

I want to drill down to exactly why VPB thinks Datisi should be able to townread him.

His answers feel evasive to me.

Again, this has already been discussed in the thread. I'm not going to help you fluff up your ISO by repeating myself after I called you out for not scum hunting.

Find original lines of inquiry and I'm happy to answer.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner wanted me and imaginality in the same game based on his scum reads, so that was the first building block I put in place when I suggested the sort.

I don't understand this tbh

What do you mean? Like why I would make that decision?

I don't understand your thought process

I was thinking Tanner had expressed strong feelings in thread, so it was something we could test. If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game. I also think the move shows my own townieness because I'm willing to go into a game based on someone else's decision. Of course, I also made the proposed move to include Tanner because then it isn't exactly what he wanted, in case he was scum.

I didn't see a lot of downside to that move and several upsides.

If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game.

How did you decide that town!Tanner's instincts are much better than your own instincts in early game?

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

How does Datisi being able to read Ico very well translate to the rest of the players in this game?

I'm saying datisi is better at scumhunting D1 than me and I am frequently wrong. It's not particular to Ico (though of course they have their own reputation).

Or do you just mean you wouldn't go anywhere near tanner if you were mafia?

Tanner scum reads me often, even though I think I've only ever been scum with them once before (maybe twice, cant remember)? Most times, Tanner comes around to read me properly, but not always. If I'm scum, that seems like a bad gamble for me. Even as town, it is risky, but I do think I have consistently been able to read Datisi town in games we have had together, so that's the upside for me. If I feel like I can consistently get an accurate town read on datisi and they end up being town this game, that's an easier sub game for me.

why would you go "i was gonna follow tanner there bc his early game reads are better than mine" when my early game read was that you're scum with imaginality?

Well I know I'm not scum, but that doesn't mean you're not right about imaginality. Much to Ari's disappointment, I don't see you as perfect. Just better than me.

Tanner, I see your posts. I need to make some breakfast and then I'll respond to those next.

@Ari - here is the short of it: I incorporated the desires of a now confirmed town player as the fundamental building block of how I sorted. Additionally, Tanner has a tendency to scum read me in almost every game we play, at least for a little while. Yet, I added Tanner to my own game, knowing that would be the case. There is no legitimate reason I would do any of that as scum...and I'd actually call that poor play on my part if I was scum. It's so obvtown from my perspective, that I think it is incredibly annoying I'm having to repeat it again.

[VP Baltar]

Sorry, didn't mean to quote all those posts, but those are examples of where you were asking me similar questions. Like, this stuff is not hard to find in my ISO

[VP Baltar]

okay, here we go. why do you think i should be able to Easily townread you?

Well first and foremost, as I stated above, there is no clear scum motivation for my D1 play, and plenty of protown motivation. From trusting your reads more, to being cautious to not get duped by you...I think my sort was a very smart way to try to form an alliance with you and easily win us a game if you were town. There's just no way I'd do that as scum. It's too risky, and that's not really how I play scum.

Second, you have seen town me a million times and I'd hope you can read me somewhat at this point. I think you have an embedded suspicion of me because I had one good scum game against you the first time we played...but like, I've been town with you so many more times

[VP Baltar]

i'm kind of a broken record here, but - why would this not make sense for scum!you to do? like, you worked with my reads to suggest a game sort, sure. and my reads on day one were pretty clearly "vp and imaginality can be buddies, but imaginality is much scummier than vp". like, what about what you did on day 1 makes no sense for scum!you to do?

You don't give easy passes to anyone. Including you in my game is fundamentally making the game harder for myself.

[VP Baltar]

NumberQ, can I get your thoughts on the exchange between Implo and Ari?

[VP Baltar]

so, am doing the thing that i said so many times i don't do. i'm looking up second hand meta for the only game i know of vp where he was scum in a 1v1. and you know what i'm getting from this meta research? absolutely nothing! yet i'm still doing it!!

Did I win at least?

[VP Baltar]

and that's not really how I play scum.

though, i did find a few "if i were scum i would totally not be doing this haha" in the game i read, so... how would you have played this if you were scum, then?

Think I would have tried to go to the keep. I think I can usually get town read enough as scum to not be on the bottom. Probably would depend on my buddies though and what their strengths are.

[VP Baltar]

do you remember what the idea was behind this post?

I actually don't? It doesn't seem to make sense since they are all xlos?

[VP Baltar]

...you mean wall?

Yeah sorry.

[VP Baltar]

Ari and imaginality are kind of both poking around me and trying to suggest strats for the Keep that put Ari in a position of power.

can you give an example of what you mean by this?

Yes. When I get to a computer today, I will expound on this.

[VP Baltar]

he responded in 721 with "I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard..." -

There's significantly more to that response than "I didn't think that hard ".

And what I'm saying is that you're way overthinking in your proposed explanation.

[VP Baltar]

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

Yeah, that scenario sounds way easier. I would just IC imaginality and then get the easier player tossed. How is that not a way easier scenario than going into a situation with someone who regularly grills me in games where I am town?

[VP Baltar]

Imaginality seems to fit the later a bit better imo, because he does seem to be calling baltar scum for every single thing that baltar does, even things that I look at and does not seem alignment indicative at all.

This should be a huge alarm bell for you then. The points I'm making are not reaching and trying to pull together any little thing to mud sling at him.

I'm not even super interested in making a giant case about him because it's kind of pointless. This is why I'm saying people need to look at actual actions in the game and who is trying to effectively solve. Motive is the guiding light here.

Imaginality is piles of words that go nowhere, while I'm over here trying to present what I think is a very coherent theory of the game while pointing to my actions as clearly town.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, I thought you wanted to jam on some stuff? I'm still around

[VP Baltar]

ok, i don't think he did.

I have not. Going to get to that shortly.

[VP Baltar]

okay, i think you disagreed with me on my idea that the wall should go first. you want keep, right? if it were up to you, who votes whom there?

My instinct is to make the other two vote luke. Ari has said she would vote there if you asked. I think she was playing a game of chicken.

[VP Baltar]

ok, Tanner, this might be kind of jumbled because it was kind of a vibey thing I was picking up last night as I was rereading, but I'm going to pull some of these posts between Ari and imaginality that just hit me as partnery or Ari trying to weasel into a power position.

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?

Luke does seem very earnest and honest though

These posts came across as buddying up to Luke and/or trying to leverage the fight between Pav and Luke to get a vote with a direct ask from Pav.

gosh it would really be quite cheeky of Luke to steal Tanner's spot in the keep and then pocket me and get me to vote for him.

mmmmhmm

Here Ari is doing her cutesy schtick with Luke.

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

Now Ari says she's not going to vote unless Tanner says so. (this is important in a bit).

In post 468, Aristeia wrote:

In post 463, Pavowski wrote:
We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.


?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

This read to me like imaginality trying to nudge the game to put the deciding vote in Pav's hands, just as Pav and Luke were kind of calling each other scummy. In my notes, I described this as "seed planting". To me, the idea here is to try to set up Ari!scum the best possible chance to get the vote by leveraging Luke and Pav's distrust for each other. It's a subtle thing and I could be tinfoiling, but I really don't understand the point of imaginality's question. It's not scumhunting. So what's the point of it?

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I don't think of the Keep that way.

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

This is how Ari responds to that post from imaginality...and this is kind of key because now Ari is saying she'll vote when she's sure of her reads. Well that runs in complete contradiction to just earlier when she said she would only vote who Tanner said. I think Ari is trying to sound pro-town by saying she'll let Tanner decide, but in reality, she is looking for whatever angle she can get to win.

Imaginality how prepared would you say you were for this 1v1?

This comment from Ari also struck me as weird. It's a complete softball meant to make imaginality look like he is some weakling against big bad VP. I don't see how this question is helping Ari determine alignments. Again, I would see this as Imaginality and Ari trying to shape public opinion around in each other in a positive way that helps the other win their games.

This is subtle stuff and maybe I'm confbiasing myself since I know imaginality is scum, but their actions toward each other don't read like there is town!Ari in the mix. It is coordinated and kid gloves.

[VP Baltar]

I probably should at some point run a complete counter scenario to see if I'm being biased. Something like a team of imaginality-pav-implosion or something.

[VP Baltar]

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

Yeah, to my post above, this is exactly what I'm saying.

Imaginality in an amazing feat, succinctly says the exact thing I thought he was trying to nudge the game toward. lol

[VP Baltar]

this is not really game related but i've been thinking about it for a bit - baltar's avatar is really aesthetically pleasing when paired with the sepia forum skin i have on this account

haha. I swear my avi makes people think I'm an asshole. So this is good news.

I'm around btw if you want to do your thing.

[VP Baltar]

meh, while we wait - baltar, if we're to flip keep first. would any flip in the keep have a significant effect on your read of the wall?

I'm not sure. The wall has felt really impenetrable to me, mostly because Toog and NQ are kind of like wallpaper. Obv Toog was sick, so nothing can be done about that. Last night when I was reading, I really struggled for some reason with NQ's posting. I don't know if it's the writing style or the content or what...but I just instantly glazed over at all his posts.

I do think Ari's town read on NQ is VERY weird. So maybe if I'm right about Ari, I'd take time to deep dive NQ to get a better read in relation there. Maybe he has posted some things about her that are enlightening?

If I'm being completely transparent, I was a bit weirded out by implosion jumping on my Ari scumread last night. But that's why I asked him about what led up to that for him. Maybe I'm on the money and he is trying to distance or make her look better with a huge spat? IDK. I could just be getting paranoid because I stated an early town read on him and when that's reciprocated it feels like pocketing.

[VP Baltar]

Like it's absolutely mindboggling to me how you could possibly think I am scum trying to shade the shit out of you and annihilate you.

Because I have been very clear that I am happy to flip first and let Tanner see whether my reads are coming from Town!Me.

So how exactly is my play scum motivated? You think tanner is going to look at me

grilling the shit out of you

and treating imag with kiddie gloves and then look at my red role pm and think that I'm playing some weird reverse psych trick on him?

Like your entire mindset is strange and alien to me.

First, huge LOL at the bolded. Your questions feel very pointless to me and don't feel like pressure at all. "why did you do what you did?" "why does that make you town?" ---that's not grilling in my book. Those are busy work questions.

On to your question: I think if you flip red, I look much better, yes.

However, the argument you are making doesn't even make sense. I had not stated my suspicion that you and imaginality were playing off each other's posts and trying to shape the optimal game for each of you until just now. To suggest you'd never attack me in that way because your red flip would prove my theory true....doesn't make any sense because that theory was not stated at the time you made the posts.

Unless you're claiming you saw my points coming before now....which I don't believe. It didn't even stick out to me until last night when I was catching up.

[VP Baltar]

Serious question though Ari, you have both said you'll vote when you're ready and that you'll let Tanner decide who you will vote? So which is it? Also, who is scum in your game from your perspective?

[VP Baltar]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

[VP Baltar]

Whichever happens first will happen first. It's not a contradiction.

Eh maybe. It just seems like you're angling a bit and trying to seem townie with the Tanner thing when maybe your real intention is to just vote in a way that's beneficial to you.

Why are you townreading Luke again? just bullet points

[VP Baltar]

However in this game the only reads you could reasonably say he's flipped are you and me which are both forced flips due to the mini game.

That's not accurate. I actually felt your "case" on Darby made him look scummy. I also did not have ari as scum in my initial gut reads at the start of the day. Anyhow.

[VP Baltar]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

"hey guys, i was like, really sure that baltar is town but oopsie i guess he's the ic now, i guess imaginality must be scum, i totally didn't make this towncase up to make myself look better during the night"

maybe scummy is a better word there

Like you would have posted it after the day start?

[VP Baltar]

yeah. imagined i was gonna walk into the game, see that you're the ic, still post my case because what else am i to do, and i'll be called out as "suspicious that you have a towncase on the person that just so happened to be the ic, huh?"

Got you. I mean for me personally not sure I would have read that one way or the other.

It is like Luke's scum case on you. Seems weird to post it, but doesn't really go into my read because it can be fake.

[VP Baltar]

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

[VP Baltar]

I think he waited for someone to post suspicions about him + someone else that would give him a good match up so he could build his allocations post around it. And saw your posts about us being buddies and leapt onto that.

It is insane the number of pre-planned things you've alleged I've done.

I don't see how anyone can feasibly townread this. Unless you think I'm like one of the best scum players on the site, it is crazy to think that imaginality legitimately believes the things he's posting.

[VP Baltar]

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

[VP Baltar]

**note to self to ask about Ari wrt his sort in 268/270

@Baltar, when you made your sort in 268, were you trying to do a 3 towniest / 3 scummiest / 3 nullest split ?

More like, start with Tanners concern of me and imaginality, which I know is not fully accurate. Then put Tanner with us to prevent any fuckery if Tanner happened to be scum.

Next, I tried to put my strongest townread of implo at the keep because that seemed like it might make for an easy win.

The wall just ended up being the leftovers because that is the hardest game to win.

[VP Baltar]

you know how throughout this game you were like "but what if tanner is this 9000 IQ powerwolf who's trying to force all of the assignments in such a way to fulfill his nefarious plans!??!!?!?"

Haha. Oh come on. That was a smart move on my part and you know it. It is a great read test on you for me, and it stops any planning you hypothetically could have been doing.

[VP Baltar]

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

What associatives from the Gate do you think will help us win the Keep after you are gone? You already have those associatives, what do they tell you?

Most strongly that Ari's scum equity goes up with an imaginality red flip.

It's not a slam dunk, but I think people think I'm a little crazy right now. Knowing for a fact I'm town will show that the arguments I'm making need serious consideration

[VP Baltar]

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

We are also getting to the point of needing to make a decision on a game so we aren't rushing the later games. I do think gate has had the most robust discussion to this point.

[VP Baltar]

Would it not be just as effective to do it the other way around? Flip the Keep, and if she is red, then that wins the gate?

I don't think it is a guarantee I'm right though. I know for a fact I'm town.

Even if we did the gate first, I'd definitely want to interrogate all three of you to make that call as solid as possible before yall vote.

[VP Baltar]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

I don't see at all what would look bad for me there? Like the worst thing I think would be if someone said I had scum equity with you...which shouldn't make sense from your perspective

[VP Baltar]

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

We are also getting to the point of needing to make a decision on a game so we aren't rushing the later games. I do think gate has had the most robust discussion to this point.

Noting here that VP tried to get Tanner to vote right at the start of today. There really seems some reason why he wants to get Gate done first.

Lol yes. You're scum. This is an easy win and takes the pressure off Tanner/town for the other games.

I think the setup I proposed is very beneficial to town and we can win two games without having to play the third.

[VP Baltar]

Ari, if imaginality is scum, who do you think his buddies are?

[VP Baltar]

which post are you asking me about? can you just quote it for me pls?

971

That reminds me that ari was dogging me about responding to that post and I don't think said a word when I did. Anyhow

[VP Baltar]

It has nothing to do with bravado. It 100% has to do in my trust that tanner will read me right if needed. Like I understand why scum made Tanner IC, because who wants to face that, but they should have ICed me to have better odds of a dummy making the call.

Scum made a mistake and I'm going to capitalize on it by being loud af and getting a win on the board.

[VP Baltar]

Like, my super secret town power is that I will totally put my ass in the wind and draw all kinds of attention because I know I'm being transparent and speaking openly. If I was scum, I'd be worried about keeping people happy and staying somewhat down the middle.

[VP Baltar]

he sniped me with that. And him outlining the reason he is consciously posting the way I just said is a new wrench in this line of thinking.

Nah, you're correct in your assessment.

This is why I think my town game is SO obvious. I am never this loose as scum. But I also haven't drawn scum in awhile, so I don't have any recent games I can even point to.

[VP Baltar]

I'll read rh9 after I workout.

[VP Baltar]

(I'm still in the process of writing my reads table.)

Why are you so focused on Luke right away when he is not in your game?

[VP Baltar]

Also when are the other reads coming?