open 841: concgratulations to the winners and losers

[Something_Smart]

i considered also picking nine just for a laugh honestly

:X

[Something_Smart]

why do you guys purposely always pick the same numbers

Well I started out just picking it because it was rarely picked but at this point it also deters anyone who's aware of it. This is the first time I've collided and it seems like flow also picked it because it was rarely picked, so that still seems pretty solid.

[Something_Smart]

I don’t... really think this a real passing thought you had.

Why not

[Something_Smart]

The first 5 pages of this game are shockingly unhelpful in providing anything for a read

Really? I found post 6 quite helpful.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sad I couldn't become a day vig... that would be so much fun

I'm sorry I am boring

1s loyal dayvig instead of PGO would be interesting tbh

[Something_Smart]

No, but it's a shit role and I just kept it in because it was in the original setup.

[Something_Smart]

(is this against the rules to say? if it is then i'm just joking)

I don't think so, but it might not be a great thing to talk about during a game.

[Something_Smart]

really Bad Vote (and so was catboi's tbh)

I disagree fwiw, it's not a Good Vote but I have been uncharacteristically quiet for someone who normally loves fast-paced games.

[Something_Smart]

idk maybe

I probably owe the game a full reread because I read it all but was only half-focused for a lot of it.

[Something_Smart]

Though I do feel like rereading rapidly posted sections is harder in general, which is, like, the whole game.

[Something_Smart]

mmmm nah not yet, just gonna let time go by and see if I tr/sr you

wat

[Something_Smart]

wat?

why would you (presumably unintentionally) make an unclear post and then deliberately not explain it when asked

[Something_Smart]

Post 216 is very underrated.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure mindmeld works when the explanation for the read is just "feeling"...

Actually I think it works better... if the reason is logic then scum can come up with it pretty easily but if it's a gut feeling that springs from a town mindset it might be harder.

I don't put much stock in mindmelds in general but I think this is a fairly good application of it.

[Something_Smart]

why the fuck is this game on page 26 and i have about two halves of a read

welcome to my life

[Something_Smart]

Can I whoosh this?

something something cognitive load

[Something_Smart]

I can't remember any time I've played with nsg-scum although I'm sure it happened at some point but 705 feels fairly towny to me

[Something_Smart]

lol who is sr ing obvtown andante

her scum partners, probably

[Something_Smart]

Was thinking about how scum are typically more conciliatory toward scumreads on them in the early game and mulling over Datisi's response to nsg in my head and but don't know how much I believe that

I was thinking about why so many in the radical left participate in "speedrunning"...

[Something_Smart]

i am just not seeing anything towny from this slot and i would have expected to see something by now or something idk

what was your read on me at this point?

[Something_Smart]

also when you say pinged I immediately think “scumtell” idk maybe ur using the term differently than me

This is how I interpret "ping" as well, skitter if you don't you may want to use a different word

[Something_Smart]

if she is for some weird reason scum yeah scum are very likely to be tmi’ing her and trying to give reasons for why she wasn’t nk’d

it was mostly a joke but there is a grain of truth in there, yeah.

[Something_Smart]

also it just hit me that Andante is top in the draft. That's another reason to scumread her, I guess.

[Something_Smart]

There's a pretty clear correlation between being high in the draft and being scum in PYP games.

The reasons I can think of are (a) scum are less likely to collide in general because they will avoid colliding with each other, (b) based on (a) they are more likely to go for low numbers because it's safer, and (c) they are likely to put more calculation and thought into the draft than town.

[Something_Smart]

You're just jealous cause you were bottom of the draft

I literally spent the entirety of the last PYP game I played correctly calling the top drafter scum

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla's analysis:

draft positions of 42 scum in 14 PYP games:

1st - xxx
2nd - xxxxx
3rd - xxx
4th - xxx
5th - xxxxxx
6th - xxx
7th - xxx
8th - xxx
9th - xxxxx
10th - xx
11th - x
12th -x
13th - xx
14th - xx

Updated with recent games:

1st - xxxxx
2nd - xxxxx
3rd - xxx
4th - xxx
5th - xxxxxxxx
6th - xxx
7th - xxx
8th - xxx
9th - xxxxxx
10th - xx
11th - x
12th -x
13th - xx
14th - xxx

[Something_Smart]

5th - xxxxxxxx

IV, I've got some bad news for you.

[Something_Smart]

Actually I kinda want to go back and look at the numbers selected by scum in the 5th position because that feels like not a coincidence.

[Something_Smart]

If you click the link Hoopla did analysis of numbers selected by scum too.

[Something_Smart]

i plead the insufficient sample size card

Yeah but we don't have to be super confident, we only have to be more confident than we could be by reads

And if you know me, you know that's a low bar.

[Something_Smart]

Mech > stats > reads ?

Something like that yeah... especially with this plist

[Something_Smart]

But I do feel like ur vibe this game is just very null and that’s just not how I’ve felt about you in the past

This is a good way to read midwaybear in general but I feel like it's super early for it? He only has 18 posts

[Something_Smart]

i mean you were in that game how did you feel?

I don't remember how I felt early but I suspected him later on

[Something_Smart]

I realized I didn't include the game Hoopla posted this in, since she obviously didn't know the outcome from that game.

1st - xxxxxx
2nd - xxxxx
3rd - xxx
4th - xxxx
5th - xxxxxxxx
6th - xxx
7th - xxx
8th - xxx
9th - xxxxxx
10th - xx
11th - xx
12th -x
13th - xx
14th - xxx

Really tempted to go through and actually find the numbers picked for each spot.

[Something_Smart]

I may have messed up a bit, since my counts don't exactly match Hoopla's. But this is what I've got.

1st - 1 1 2 5 6 8
2nd - 3 3 5 6 9
3rd - 8 9 10 11
4th - 1 13 15 22
5th - 1 4 8 9 12 18 69 413
6th - 1 6 20
7th - 3 5 5 42
8th - 2
9th - 1 2 3 4 4 10
10th - 1 7
11th - 6 11
12th - 1
13th - 1 2
14th - 4 4 4 6

[Something_Smart]

This logic feels forced and I feel like it's not that accurate

The logic that my reasoning is not motivated by my position because I've held this view in other games? What's inaccurate about it?

[Something_Smart]

Well, ignoring Open 630 because scum were not given pregame chat, 28% of slots that didn't dupe were scum (compared to 21% of slots overall) according to your chart.

That's not a ton, but it isn't nothing.

(FYI I used more games than you because I used some that were different setups but still had the same PYP draft mechanic, including the last run of this one.)

[Something_Smart]

I know he is Just Like This and gets some leewy for that but I feel like when he's town he usually pulls out some sort of relevant thought and I haven't seen it so far

I am not normally that lurky. It was a holiday weekend and I took yesterday off to spend time with my family.

[Something_Smart]

pretty sure this time the top drafter isn't

maybe not, but one of the high drafters probably is.

[Something_Smart]

i'm p confident i picked 42 as scum 2x so i think you're missing one of htose games / my pick in one of those games

I don't think I included the Venrob's PYP one, you're right.

[Something_Smart]

1st - 1 1 2 5 6 8
2nd - 3 3 5 6 9
3rd - 8 8 9 10 11
4th - 1 13 15 22
5th - 1 4 8 9 12 18 69 413
6th - 1 6 20
7th - 3 5 5 42 42
8th - 2
9th - 1 2 3 4 4 10
10th - 1 7
11th - 6 11
12th - 1
13th - 1 2
14th - 4 4 4 4 6

[Something_Smart]

I mean, Pooky picked 1.. intended to be top of the draft

that is not how that works

[Something_Smart]

Look at how many times scum chose 1 when 1 wasn't first draft. Scum is basically in that group every time

with all due respect, are you really making this argument as a stats major

[Something_Smart]

lol ok you're the 2nd one to say something, I don't see what's wrong with that statement?? When only town chose 1 (ignoring 630) there were only 2/13 games where #1 wasn't 1st draft and was still all town. Whenever scum chose #1, there was more than 1 person that chose it. 6/8 times that #1 wasn't 1st draft, it had scum. High odds to be scum! I don't understand what's wrong with this statement

It ignores the number of people who chose it. If, for example, 5 people chose 1 and one of them was scum, then there's actually better odds of hitting scum outside of the 1's than inside them.

If you add up the total number of 1's you get 6/26 are scum which is 23%, slightly higher than the baseline of 21%. So scum have a very slight inclination toward picking 1, but it's not the big effect you're making it out to be.

Even aside from that, why weren't you pushing Datisi equally?

[Something_Smart]

There's nothing wrong with pushing Pooky, but the number analysis isn't really damning. If it were, it would also be damning for Datisi, is my point.

[Something_Smart]

I don't TR pooky, you're kinda making it sound like you do? what're your thoughts on Pooky?

I have no read on Pooky beyond "collided = > rand town", I will probably remain that way for quite some time because I have a shite record of reading him.

[Something_Smart]

On further reflection cakez is probably town for going after pooky because the last time he tried to do it as scum pooky ripped his head off

Seems legit. What game was that, btw? I haven't played against scum-Cakez in a

long

time.

[Something_Smart]

This post pinged

Why? It seems like a valid question

[Something_Smart]

LMAO, Iceland was a game I played with flow trap.

I wish it was my destination though!

Lmao

[Something_Smart]

your stubbornness about iv having to provide Reasons and getting annoyed at me not seeing it as scummy feels like a shark that's smelling blood but the swimmer already got out of water and it's scummy, andante

really? to me it was more like "this is what Andante didn't do when she was scum before"

[Something_Smart]

I thought you townread both of them IV?

[Something_Smart]

you have exp with her being scum?

Yes, in this game. She had a tracker semi-inno on her that could have been a real inno because we thought there might be a traitor, so I mostly ignored her until I died, but I don't recall her ever playing with as much conviction as she is here.

[Something_Smart]

Why are we spoilering shit

[Something_Smart]

Warehouse 13 was a long time ago...

A year is not a long time when you're a boomer like me. I'm probably forgetting one, but the only time I can remember having played with scum-Cakez was 2016. I remember that game because it was the first time I ever townread him

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I've finally gotten a handle on reading him, using the very handy heuristic "if Cakez feels like he can't possibly be town, then he probably is", but I won't know how accurate that is until I play against scum-him.

[Something_Smart]

scum!cakez also did play against town!pooky in that c9++ mena modded

Right, I was in that too, but I think I wasn't really counting it because I left reading Cakez to lilith.

[Something_Smart]

Today is gonna be the day that is gonna be the day that is gonna be the day

[Something_Smart]

I need to stop lying to myself and pretending that I'm going to reread the past pages and make meaningful commentary.

[Something_Smart]

we're starting to get into radio buzz territory again ...

VOTE: skitter

[Something_Smart]

Nothing about this is similar to Radio Buzz. I didn't even lurk in that game.

[Something_Smart]

you spent like a week promising content and failing to deliver despite me constantly bugging you abt it
from my pov how is this game meant to be dissimilar ?

I haven't promised content, I've explicitly done the opposite actually. I haven't been able to focus on this game.

[Something_Smart]

and why are you voting me for this

Because I felt like you were trying to threaten me with an inaccurate comparison.

I don't actually think it's scum indicative, it was mostly a protest vote.

[Something_Smart]

also you were active lurking for like a week in that game ?

I hate the term "active lurking". I was posting but not providing a lot of reads. I'm not even sure that's a scumtell for me, in general, but in that situation it probably was.

Meanwhile here I'm not posting at all, over a holiday weekend. That, at least to me, seems totally different.

[Something_Smart]

is this something you do as scum?

Can't remember if I've ever done it as scum honestly.

I think pretty much anything I do as town I

can

do as scum but usually am less likely to. I have no idea if I'd do it here.

[Something_Smart]

And i do understand the holiday weekend, i'm just hoping that you'll have some content before eod

I'm hoping so too. And yes I'll take a look at SA's wall.

[Something_Smart]

SA's wall seems very town. I can get more into that if people think it would help.

[Something_Smart]

Lemme catch up first. Then I will.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, you seem genuinely open like in the other game I played with you

Open how?

[Something_Smart]

if that means you want to catch up on all 77 pages before you describe what you like about the wall, i'd kinda just rather you talk about why you like the wall >.>

No just the 7 pages since I posted last

[Something_Smart]

I mean, don't all games start faster than they end? like, you can't expect us to sit here and do nothing day 1, THEN do stuff d2... idk, I don't like talking about activity levels, like, it does absolutely nothing for this game

It does nothing to advance the game, maybe, but SA is right that this game is faster than that one, and I can see why it might affect how he's playing.

[Something_Smart]

despite iv admitting he sometimes does "too stupid to be scum" stuff earlier in this game, i am tempted to townread his nonsense vote/unvote of skitter

Having just played against scum-IV that seems pretty firmly in his scum repertoire.

[Something_Smart]

if skitter is maf, it is with sleepless. that is one thing I'm confident in

this list just confirmed my suspicions there

excuse me what, how could SA's reads affect the probability of skitter-scum/SA-town? That doesn't make sense.

[Something_Smart]

not sure SS posts this as scum

why not?

[Something_Smart]

actually this reaction is ass I take back what I said earlier about SS

yeah there it is

[Something_Smart]

Because I wanted to catch up first...?

[Something_Smart]

I wanted to pull quotes from the wall to explain why I townread it but there aren't many specific lines I can point to, honestly. For one, I think posting a wall that detailed after having almost no content thus far as scum would be ambitious. But even aside from just the existence/size of it, it's laid out in a way that seems to reflect a genuine thought process jumping from topic to topic. Coming out swinging on IV and then revisiting it in detail, the random interspersed reachouts, the edits and addendums, and the section marked as for nsg. It doesn't feel to me that it was crafted to look certain way, it feels like it was an attempt to sort out thoughts into words.

Does that make sense?

[Something_Smart]

I guess? Those seem mostly personality indicative to me.

[Something_Smart]

Define personally

Like, the way she chooses to be blunt but not aggressive is just how she likes to act in general, and not reflective of how she approaches the game as town or as scum in particular.

[Something_Smart]

i guess i kinda object to your classifying that wall as 'ambitious' as scum, i think for a lot of people coming in with a wallpost like that to catch up is a lot easier as scum than interacting with, like, everything else

Yes, but that's not what would come to mind when I think of a typical catchup. I wouldn't even call it a catchup, it's more of a summary of his thoughts on topics he deemed important. At least in my own experience, a quotestripe is usually pretty easy to do as scum but something planned out and organized like that would be harder.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not going to ding SA for not having interacted with people in real-time, he's clearly busy.

[Something_Smart]

How is that his only piece of content? He talked about a number of people.

[Something_Smart]

Is Mare's main known?

[Something_Smart]

don't the numbers say that the neighbourizer is like a 17/18 a town role or something - i think the pyp i ran in august was the first time in history it was a scum role, and scum beat like 3 townies who all went for neighborizer

Yep. Though my stats didn't count the Venrob's PYP game, where skitter did take neighborizer as scum. (But that was weird anyway because it was opposite gunsmith and she claimed gunsmith, and taking neighborizer as town there would be such an awful play.)

[Something_Smart]

I think Mare is probably town but people play on secret alts to get away with stuff they wouldn't get away with on their mains. If the alt is already semi-outed I would appreciate if it could be fully outed.

[Something_Smart]

Spoiler:

Ydrasse.

o/

I think this does lessen my townread somewhat, exactly because of what happened to her last time she was high in the draft.

[Something_Smart]

i know she was the top last time but idk the full context
but i think she goes for a 'better' scum pick as scum

The context is that she picked cop and was forced to PoE herself out, much like you were in Venrob's PYP. The downside of taking a strong role is that then you can't kill that role off.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S: Did you miss when you referenced the last game and I quoted you saying I still killed you despite correctly nailing me as scum? ._.

Yes, I must have. I read some parts of this game while only half paying attention.

[Something_Smart]

I picked high to try and get neighborizer specifically especially after last game when everyone wanted it.

Wouldn't that be a reason not to get it, because it increases the chance of PR's being missed?

[Something_Smart]

I tried to pick high like being the first or second pick.

oic. My point still stands though, it wouldn't be good for town to go for neighborizer if you expect a lot of other people to also go for it.

[Something_Smart]

getting snowed in Iceland

A+ word choice

[Something_Smart]

What did you think I would do as town though? Put up a fight? I mean I probably would.

so you're not town but if you were town you probably would put up a fight

????????

I did a double take but I think it was more likely just bad phrasing.

[Something_Smart]

are you sure?

I am sure that I currently believe that it was more likely poor phrasing than a scumslip.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know if this is just midway's posting style or what but literally this post pings me so bad tonally

It took me years to stop having this reaction to everything you write lol. I think midway plays pretty similarly to me so this doesn't surprise me at all

Also unsurprisingly, that post looks fine to me. Not every post has to have a definitive conclusion.

[Something_Smart]

This game has a bizarre mix of personalities.

[Something_Smart]

I will wreck a nerd in chess too fwiw

[Something_Smart]

Oh HELL naw I found your Lichess I will stick to playing you in mafia oh holy fuck

lmaoo shit my cover's been blown

[Something_Smart]

also why tf is neither wagonee here

is this scum!indicative??

I don't think SA not being here is scum indicative.

Flow, not as sure.

[Something_Smart]

I was the one who wanted me to go to tournaments, not my parents, but other than that that's pretty fair.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not a good neighbor target, in all seriousness. I don't sort much in hoods, and I'm low on the draft so not likely to have PR info, and I would smoke her ass at chess (Faker has seen my lichess profile and can confirm this).

[Something_Smart]

We should not discuss a hypothetical future replacement before it has been confirmed by the mod, yes.

[Something_Smart]

Lol

[Something_Smart]

menalque replaces pooky.

!!

[Something_Smart]

So who do you actually want voted out here?

I don't know, someone not named SA I guess. It would be nice if SA would actually play though, but I guess it seems like he might be giving some content soon?

[Something_Smart]

Lol

[Something_Smart]

ANOTHER MUSE FAN???

They

Will

Not

Force

Us

Oh boy should I go back to my old avatar for this game, I'm real tempted.

[Something_Smart]

When you're a scum player you fish, flail, and stall.

Or give up and antispew

[Something_Smart]

Has flow's situation been that bad since yesterday? Absolutely not.

Is the same not also true for what you said? Fishing, flailing, and stalling are pretty desperate moves.

[Something_Smart]

You must be using those words to mean different things then. When I'm scum and receive pressure, I start antispewing far before I do any of the other three things.

[Something_Smart]

Just insanely basic and with all offense should stick to the Newbie queue until you get enough scumrolls in if this is not understood.

Wow ok

[Something_Smart]

Well Prism's doing a good job of making me not want to play the game anymore.

[Something_Smart]

Your vote is currently on skitter S_S. If you think flow has given up as scum perhaps you should move it. If you are neutral, you should still perhaps move it.

Okay.

VOTE: Faker

[Something_Smart]

To be more clear Faker, I think that probably you understood "give up" differently from how I meant it-- I didn't mean literally stop caring about the game, I just mean accepting one's execution as inevitable (if not today, then tomorrow, etc).

I believe skitter's argument was-- there was no reason why flow would deliberately thread avoid as town, but there is a potential reason why they would do it as scum.

That's a reasonable argument, I can see both sides there. But nothing in the thread came close to justifying 2699. I'm not going to say that such an insult can

never

be justified, but it was incredibly offputting.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart, why are you voting faker here? we have to reach an agreement on who we're voting, and I guarantee you, we're not all agreeing to flip Faker here, I tr him anyways... so are you just trying to waste your vote?

I am an expert at wasting my vote.

I think there is potential scum motivation in stirring up shit here, though of course I'm not pretending that Faker is a viable execution for today.

[Something_Smart]

scum stirring stuff up, cause they don't want sleepless wagoned?

Faker is defending flow, actually. I think it's reasonably likely that both wagons are T/T, in which case scum are just trying to increase divisiveness and cause arguments.

[Something_Smart]

anyone wanna let me know if anything actually important has been happening or if it's just more shitfests?

Porque no los dos

[Something_Smart]

Is it bad to town read Norths dream?

No, I was actually kinda thinking the same way. It's dumb, but it's not as dumb as my reason for townreading midwaybear.

[Something_Smart]

and what is that?

Based on my data no scum has landed 3rd in the draft with a number lower than 8, in fact they have been pretty consistently high (8, 9, 10, 11). If this sounds like a bullshit statistical coincidence, that's because it is, but I think the logic makes at least a tiny amount of sense because based on the data when scum go for a medium-low number they often also go for a lower which might collide, but it if it does, the medium-low number is likely to score a very good place in the draft (higher than 3rd).

Look, I warned you that it was dumb.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart, while reading up I see that your backseat style is intentional. You said you were caught up and normally enjoy fast paced games. What is the reason for playing the way you are?

You're gonna have to be more specific. What part are you curious about?

[Something_Smart]

ugh idk upon further reflection if midway is town this is a bad idea

is this not true for literally every single wagon in every game of mafia ever?

lmao

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart, while reading up I see that your backseat style is intentional. You said you were caught up and normally enjoy fast paced games. What is the reason for playing the way you are?

Something_Smart, while reading up I see that your backseat style is intentional. You said you were caught up and normally enjoy fast paced games. What is the reason for playing the way you are?

You're gonna have to be more specific. What part are you curious about?

[Something_Smart]

I just thought Datisi's post was funny.

It

could

be bad if midway is town, depending on what his role is.

[Something_Smart]

This part made it feel like you were following along but in a backseat kind of role.

All that meant was that I compulsively check the site on my phone but don't always pay full attention to the posts.

I do usually play in a more "backseat" way, I suppose, but I'm still not clear on what exactly you're asking.

[Something_Smart]

I was asking the reason for the backseat approach. I thought it was different from normal for you though. If it's not, then it's not important.

Oh. Yeah, it's pretty normal. My extreme absence early on wasn't normal, but that was due to the holidays.

[Something_Smart]

@Something_Smart can u please choose a wagon

I won't vote SA. I will vote either of the other two, as necessary.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: flow

[Something_Smart]

killing a TPR is worse than killing a VT but killing a SPR is better than killing a goon so it's the same thing??

This is not true, by the way. TPR's are comparatively way more valuable to town than SPR's are to scum.

[Something_Smart]

so are things like roleblocker

Last game the roleblocker's power accomplished nothing but outing himself. The thing about scum PR's, especially ones that are high up, is that they can't really fakeclaim so if they use their power to benefit scum they are going to be caught.

[Something_Smart]

Haha suckers, can't be afraid of feeling foolish if you know you're foolish all the time.

[Something_Smart]

All it would confirm is that what I tried to pick didn't go to flow or Something_Smart

Also that it did go to someone else.

[Something_Smart]

Scum ~probably~ benefits more from knowing it's there, though.

Depends on the role but yeah probably accurate.

[Something_Smart]

If they have your role make them claim it.

That's a good point.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Andante

[Something_Smart]

Now that the nightmare that was Holiday Dance Party is over, I can elaborate on the other reason my activity was so low for a while, which is that I was trying hard in that game and scared shitless about it, to the point where I would be refreshing my egosearch staring at that game and just not even care if this one had new posts.

I didn't want to even allude that ongoing games were the reason because that might lead people to conclude that my alignment was different between the two.

[Something_Smart]

cause I was supposed to die last night would be my guess

Well sure, but mostly that you were kind enough to tell us that both shots came from scum.

[Something_Smart]

And you weren't acting like someone with a healthy fear of death, yesterday or today.

[Something_Smart]

It would also be kind of a terrible double scum shot though? Why wouldn't they go for anybody high on the list?

[Something_Smart]

why would I fear death?

why would the top draft spot be afraid of getting NK'd? Gee, I don't know...

[Something_Smart]

Why would town shoot IV or Faker?

I don't know, but the first rule of this is that the answer to "would town be that dumb?" is always "yes".

I'm fine with you thinking that it was probably a double scum shot, you're entitled to your own opinion. What I didn't like was that you seemed to skip that step and just went right to "double scum kill on actives = scum can't keep up".

And the other point still stands. Even if it is obvious to everyone but me that it was a double scum kill, why didn't either kill aim high in the draft? Cop is the strongest town role, by a significant margin.

[Something_Smart]

yall are all wasting time tunneling me

Oh shit Andante softed PR, better back off

[Something_Smart]

I haven’t thought about this game much ‘cause of dance game.

Yeah lol almost the entire scumteam of that game is here. Just need marci to rep in

[Something_Smart]

I don't agree with the first part of this (that Andante didn't fear death yesterday). It seems to me that she genuinely believed that she was going to die N1 which is why her activity dropped a few irl days into Day 1 and why her play seemed so lackluster.

Why's that how that would come out? Wouldn't she try harder if she thought she only had one day to play?

[Something_Smart]

You are asking the wrong person, my friend.

The first thing that comes to mind was how the flow wagon switched en masse to midway and then back to flow.

Only, I can't find any evidence of this happening in the VC's and I'm not convinced I didn't dream it. I'm pretty sure it did though.

[Something_Smart]

Nope. But I can go back and look tomorrow if you remind me

Pedit: or that

[Something_Smart]

Dance game ended during night, I'm pretty sure.

[Something_Smart]

If mare doesnt have a proveable action tomorrow she 100% should be flipped

Why's that? You think she's lying about being neighborizer?

[Something_Smart]

So... what do you think happened to the neighborizer role then? She admitted that she was aware it was often hotly contested, but she would gamble her life on nobody having chosen it?

[Something_Smart]

I don't like to sit and watch people be wrong, especially people who are way more persuasive than me in general

[Something_Smart]

Neighborizer has never been missed in any PYP game.

[Something_Smart]

letting them be wrong for a little while can be alignment telling >_>

Not with skitter I don't think. Besides, it seems like she already thought of this and dismissed it.

[Something_Smart]

I AM AWARE I WANTED TO HEAR WHAT SHE HAD TO SAY

This is really irritating, we clearly have different goals here.

I'm trying to, like, actually talk to skitter and level with her and you're like the cop with dark shades in the interrogation room telling her her partners have already confessed

[Something_Smart]

why don't you let me have my fun, s_s

well I didn't mention the multitasking thing and she figured it out on her own. did you get anything from that?

[Something_Smart]

I didn't deliberately hold that one back, though I will concede that holding it back might have been helpful. I don't think holding either of the things I said back would have helped; the first was a really obvious argument that she already considered, and the second was a stat she had no way of knowing.

[Something_Smart]

mind acknowledging the second half of my 3506?

thank you for the reminder because I literally didn't notice that in the chaos.

It would make no sense to want Andante dead without knowing what her role is, but I still want her wagoned, yes.

[Something_Smart]

nope

why not? do you think she would genuinely forget about mutltitasking as scum? or do you think she would fake forgetting about it? do you think maybe it indicates that if skitter is scum a goon made the kill so multitasking didn't come up?

If none of these thoughts went through your head after you made a big fuss of letting skitter figure shit out herself I will be, uh, amused.

[Something_Smart]

Well now you've basically claimed.

[Something_Smart]

and I realized I'm like the only actual info getting role left lol but ummm that means I'd have to actually have decent reads lol

What are you talking about, cop exists...?

[Something_Smart]

What?

[Something_Smart]

I don't think any of this makes much sense. The only part of it that's town indicative at all is that JK is way more likely to be picked by scum than tracker, but we can't even verify that she is a tracker.

[Something_Smart]

And Datisi, I did not miss your question again, but I don't really feel like posting all my thoughts on every person, especially when most of them are already in my ISO. Anyone specific you want to hear about?

[Something_Smart]

ayyy at least I picked the right role here better than keeping people in jail!

Well, JK is also more picked by town, but less so. In a vacuum it is probably the stronger role, but in PYP they're pretty close.

[Something_Smart]

pedit: are they? legit the only thing i could find was you voting andante

well if I haven't mentioned anything on someone it's probably because I don't have any major thoughts on them. But I have some stuff there, yes.

[Something_Smart]

nsg - nothing ai about her
mare - nothing ai about her

these are both wrong, I've said that both were +town.

Besides, I never claimed to have a read on every person? That would be an obviously silly claim, anyway.

[Something_Smart]

SS, who are 3 names you're SRing here/considering voting

Andante skitter Cakez I guess? I hate these kinds of questions though and they don't often lead anywhere in my experience.

[Something_Smart]

it doesn't change the fact that your reads are heavily unimpressive for claiming that you have given thoughts on most of the playerlist >_>

I guess I can see how you misinterpreted it that way, my bad. When I said "most of them are in my ISO" I meant "most of my thoughts", not "thoughts on most of the players".

[Something_Smart]

Yes. Tracker is not very powerful with 3 scum alive.

[Something_Smart]

also: andante has claimed, now what do you wanna do with her slot? @s_s

Kill it, if that wasn't evident.

[Something_Smart]

okay, can you then make a super simple list of "people i think are town, scum, neither"

Sure.
Town - midway, Mare, nsg, Alyssa
Scum - Andante
Neither - skitter, Cakez, catboi, Menalque, Datisi

[Something_Smart]

okay, *why*

Top draft is decently correlated with being scum, her play has done nothing to shake me off of that, scum presumably made two kills and neither was aimed at the top 3 (which I believe is fairly rare? might be worth checking the stats there), she's been playing up how she is a known PR and how much that matters and then she claims under basically zero pressure with zero info, her reaction to the double kill was pretty awkward and may have betrayed knowledge that it was a scum vig, and now she's shading me off of Mena associatives rather than push me directly which may be to avoid OMGUS accusations.

[Something_Smart]

lol this is actually really funny I have my own scum category!!! WOOOOOOOOO

and I recognize that this could just be personality, but it could easily be a nervous scum response. Reminds me of how Firebringer plays scum.

[Something_Smart]

yall i don't even know, lets move on and just like get a maf here please

This is another post that read to me as possibly nervous scum.

[Something_Smart]

i genuinely don't understand a single read here x_x

Welcome to my brain, my read methods don't make sense. Half of them only work

because

most people don't believe in them

[Something_Smart]

what's wrong with me claiming?

It doesn't make any sense to have done it when you did... you don't have a super strong role, you don't have any info, if anything my push on you was probably helping you avoid the NK if you're town. And if scum don't have the cop, they need to find it rather badly, and you made that a lot easier for them if you're town.

[Something_Smart]

what use does maf tracker even have??

well, since you tracked the dead guy, we don't know that you're really a tracker. And maf jailkeeper has a lot of use.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

She doesnt forget ascetic cop is a thing when she's scum ... like someone would have brought up her picking it ...

I don't agree with this, depending on how mechanically inclined the team is they may have just minded their own business, or she could have glossed over it if it was mentioned only in passing.

[Something_Smart]

I'm like 99% sure she is

Why so confident?

[Something_Smart]

I think cakez is town tbh, I liked how he gave the names he'd vote when I asked, like idk felt towny to me

You don't think scum-Cakez would keep track of who he wants to vote?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, are you confident she's maf?

No. Can you answer my question

[Something_Smart]

Why is answering fast instead of thinking about it town indicative? Town has to put more thought into it than scum...

[Something_Smart]

You really thought about it? I don't see how voting out the tracker claim is ever a good idea here

Yes, I thought about it, because I don't normally view reads in those terms.

Tracker is a middling role, but it's not as useful here because we have some PR flips and no scum flips yet. And, there's the chance of you being a scum JK. I can understand the argument for leaving you alive, but I don't think you having a PR should give you a free pass.

[Something_Smart]

I never said I was asking for a free pass?

That's kinda how I'm reading it; you saying it's weird for me to be voting the tracker claim implies that your tracker claim means you shouldn't be voted.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I explained myself reasonably well in 3640. If you have any specific questions, I'm happy to answer them.

[Something_Smart]

Did you just search my 181-post ISO for the word "draft" and find 9 examples to prove that I do nothing but talk about the draft

[Something_Smart]

I linked my post explaining it and you literally just quoted it. 3640.

[Something_Smart]

where have all the bastards gone

This nsg wagon is boring and it feels like it's driven the game to a standstill. I would want to see if she's going to get replaced but that would mean idling for another 36 hours. Something to be said for shorter prod times, I guess. (Even though if this had been 36 hour prods I'd have been long past due.)

[Something_Smart]

It felt like it was moving when I was pushing Andante, to me anyway. Now it feels like nobody is doing anything and people are just dogpiling on the afk player. (Which is also kinda what happened on D1)

[Something_Smart]

I will point out that her two posts for the day were basically a prodge, and would argue that shouldnt count for prod timer purposes ...

The problem is that this rule is super easy to get around if you know about it. And if you don't know about it then you can be completely blindsided by a replacement.

[Something_Smart]

earlier on nobody was forced to react to shit.

I don't think that's true, my push on Andante got plenty of reactions despite being a wagon of two at its peak.

[Something_Smart]

I was going to say it was likely sitewide inactivity but I checked and it's actually not.

Still have a hard time buying that she's deliberately lurking out as a scum tactic.

[Something_Smart]

It's not a useful question. You didn't say anything about "information", whatever that is, you said that people couldn't be made to react without a wagon, which is categorically false.

[Something_Smart]

also, if nsg really is scum, i don't think it's lurking out as a scum tactic, as much as it is not knowing what to do.

That, or maybe more likely still is just lacking motivation.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sure you already know who my main is so neither

what is the point of playing on an alt if you are going to do this

[Something_Smart]

The specific nsg post I liked was 705. Beyond that I thought the SA push and the way she positioned in D1 in general doesn't feel like scum setting up to go far. Maybe she was scum and wasn't setting up to go far, but then I would expect her buddies to be pushing her more decisively today instead of just everyone being apathetic.

[Something_Smart]

That does not sound like something that scum-catboi would have much trouble doing.

[Something_Smart]

I wish ... as it is, i've basically resigned myself to a loss here

what is this supposed to mean

[Something_Smart]

midway / cakez / SS could be a team based on what i've read so far and assuming midway flips red, but that feels too simple/easy

This aged well lol

[Something_Smart]

also I hate relying on PRs to win a game

all that does is allow towns to win games where they just play bad and don't deserve it

I'm glad you're blessed with far-above-average town play but it's a bit rude to call anyone not playing at that level bad and undeserving of a win

[Something_Smart]

ok so i actually read the setup info and scum indeed can communicate during the pregame phases if I'm reading this correctly - and thus people with duplicate numbers are likely unpaired / less sus. idk i thought i had a brainwave but then realized that scum can't see what numbers town chooses so its like only a mild advantage lol but at the very least like same numbers are unlikely together.

We ran the stats in the early game. It doesn't actually lead to a reasonably large bias toward higher draft slots being scum.

Let me go grab a funny post from the previous run

[Something_Smart]

Subject: Open 825 - PYP X/Y: HoS_S [game over!]

significantly more likely

little higher

Enchant was scum and underplayed the chances of scum ending up high. The top drafter was their partner.

[Something_Smart]

do you consider midway to be clear?

No, I consider midway to be clearly not teamed with me.

[Something_Smart]

how relevant is it that he was scum that game

I mean it's how I actually feel about him so not at all.