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[mastina]

Hi I am a mason.

[mastina]

Btw everyone here should be outting the scum role(s) they submitted, but

not

the town roles (for obvious reasons).

Mafia role submissions:

1-Shot Strongman, 1-Shot Universal Backup, PT Cop

Everyone should also be outting their submitted alignment preference.

I submitted

town

.

(We should do this because while scum can lie about their submitted preference, we can still conftown some players.)

[mastina]

We should NOT claim any submitted preferences

We absolutely should.

The mafia might lie about theirs, but they are only 3/10 of the players. They can't prevent 10/13 players from telling the truth.

If we have players truthfully claim their alignment preference (without claiming PR/Vanilla preference), then we can narrow down the gamestate.

For instance, if we have 12/13 or so claim they submitted town preference, then that means that everyone who submitted scum preference probably got it and some of them lied.

In contrast, if we have 6/13 or so claim they submitted mafia preference, then that means that everyone who submitted town preference probably got it.

There's zero downsides to this. It genuinely can POE the game on D1.

[mastina]

It actually may be -town based on how roles are calculated so I'd suggest against it

Wrong.

We submitted preference for alignment.

Separately

, we submitted preference for PR vs Vanilla.

The latter has ZERO correlation to the former, because there can be PRs and Vanillas on both sides. Goons are just as much of a thing as VTs. So outting your submitted preferred alignment does

nothing

to out if you're more or less likely to be a PR, because the two are completely and entirely different from each other.

[mastina]

Considering town preference was on the same side of the lists that town power roles were pulled from it actually can out prs

This is also wrong.

Your submitted picks have nothing to do with your submitted preference on alignment.

We submitted up to four things:
Town role(s),
Scum role(s),
Preferred alignment,
VT vs PR preference.

All of these are 100% completely and entirely separate from each other with zero ties to one another.

In other words, stating your alignment preference does nothing to out VT vs PR preference; stating your scum roles does nothing on your preferred alignment or PR/VT preference.

We should out our submitted scum roles and our preferred alignment, but

not

out our submitted town roles or our VT/PR preference.

[mastina]

Design sketch and Faction randomization parts

Still not relevant.

Outing VT vs PR preference does in fact out info we shouldn't out.

Outing town roles does in fact out info we shouldn't out.

But outing Town vs Mafia doesn't out anything; outing mafia roles we submitted also doesn't out anything.

While what we submit can have an impact on what roles are in the game based on our submitted alignment preference, there is no downside to claiming the scum roles and alignment preference so long as you are not outting VT/PR preference or town PRs submitted.

[mastina]

skipping over Vanilla preferences where possible

.

Which is why not outting VT vs PR preference is important.

But outting your alignment preference is harmless.

[mastina]

For the record, I AM keeping a list of preferences, roles, etc., and I'll be sharing after everyone has chimed in.

I've not gone through the effort of developing proper reads yet but my initial thoughts are there's a high chance of 1-2 scum in {MegAzumarill, CheekyTeeky} here, so:
VOTE: CheekyTeeky

[mastina]

Oh you finally rolled scum

No, but I'm pretty sure you did. You spent not only this post, 96, posting, but also:

House I'll be sad if you're scum btw. Just saying, don't feel bad or anything

Also I hope noone claimed their mafia roles because mastina is on a big ol' fishing trip today.

All of those on top of that.

This, and yet you claim, allegedly?

I don't have time to read mastinas posts yet lol.

My posts on page 1 which you read all of?

Hi I am a mason.

Btw everyone here should be outting the scum role(s) they submitted, but

not

the town roles (for obvious reasons).

Mafia role submissions:

1-Shot Strongman, 1-Shot Universal Backup, PT Cop

Everyone should also be outting their submitted alignment preference.

I submitted

town

.

(We should do this because while scum can lie about their submitted preference, we can still conftown some players.)

We should NOT claim any submitted preferences

We absolutely should.

The mafia might lie about theirs, but they are only 3/10 of the players. They can't prevent 10/13 players from telling the truth.

If we have players truthfully claim their alignment preference (without claiming PR/Vanilla preference), then we can narrow down the gamestate.

For instance, if we have 12/13 or so claim they submitted town preference, then that means that everyone who submitted scum preference probably got it and some of them lied.

In contrast, if we have 6/13 or so claim they submitted mafia preference, then that means that everyone who submitted town preference probably got it.

There's zero downsides to this. It genuinely can POE the game on D1.

Now if that were longer than anything else you had read it might hold as possible.

Except:

@Titus: I'm pleased to see you're town this game
Please don't spend the entire game trying to figure out the same about me, so we can work together.
Kthx.

VOTE: House

Silly.
The last thing I'm going to do as scum is draw Titus' attention.

Bookmarked.

This was a post comparable in length to mine.

You also called MegAzumarill town from page one and Enchant from page one, which meant you had to have read all of these:

VOTE: Greeting

Hands in the air!

Wave em like you just don't care

Hard claim compulsive self-targeting friendly neighbor.

I confirm my claim.

I actually cc this

We should NOT claim any submitted preferences

I submitted Mafia Informed Commuter Traitor (know a random tpr in game)

It actually may be -town based on how roles are calculated so I'd suggest against it

Considering town preference was on the same side of the lists that town power roles were pulled from it actually can out prs

MegAzumarill's total amount of volume in posts on page one actually

exceeded

mine, and then Enchant's post?

Outing preference is useless as mafia will simple tell they submitted to be town.

My mafia picks:
Informed Goon
Macho 1-Shot Strongman
Rolecop

Of a comparable length to mine.

So you going out of your way to avoid dealing with my posts?

I call bullshit.

The far more likely explanation for you addressing my posts

now

but not addressing them earlier when surrounded by other posts that were just as long or even longer than mine?

That you didn't want to answer.

Thus, scum.

[mastina]

*my posts which you claim to have read none of

[mastina]

Anyway, I'm sceptical of

mastina

's idea as I have no idea how she's going to compile all this

In my PT of course!

[mastina]

Can we do Meg first?

We can, but I figured Cheeky would respond more to my pressure and be more cooperative than Meg would be from it, and I was equally willing to vote either, so that's why I went Cheeky first.

[mastina]

Titus:

You haven't given us your preferred alignment or your mafia role picks, in spite of having said there's no downside to the latter.

For the record, the only other player not having chimed in is ɀefiend (who hasn't posted yet).

Beyond that, Flea's stated alignment preference but not stated mafia role(s);
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill are the only players refusing to do either a stated alignment preference or outting their submitted roles.

When both Titus and ɀefiend (or the slot) have chimed in, I'll share my compiled list along with some thoughts on my findings.

[mastina]

Wait nevermind I'm a dummy, Titus did, disregard that.

[mastina]

VOTE: MegAzumarill
(I do have initial findings which give me townreads but I can't share my townreads without tainting the results)

[mastina]

I didn't mean technicalities, I meant the method itself. Some players submitted town preference, some submitted scum preference. Some townies might have submitted scum preference. What if scums lie about scum preference and those townies who submitted scum preference didn't lie and simply didn't get it? This is what I'm sceptical about.

Well about that.

If Enchant was serious about submitting scum preference, then I'm pretty sure that if the mod gave everyone their stated preference?

We have three scum who submitted scum preference and then either refused to state their alignment preference (Cheeky, Meg) or lied about it and said they had town preference. (Technically, they could lie and say 'no preference', but I've reason to believe that everyone who claimed 'No Preference' is actually town here, just off of who the names claiming no preference are. I don't think scum truthfully claimed no preference given Enchant, and I don't think scum lied about it being no preference given who the names are and basic psychology in mafia play in that mafia would be afraid to claim 'no preference' if they thought that claiming no preference would make them more likely to be seen as a scum candidate.)

Spoiler: Notes

TOWN

PREFERENCE:

mastina

House
Scorpious
Yume
Greeting
Flea the Magician
CheekyTeeky (after much resistance)
ɀefiend

NO ALIGNMENT PREFERENCE:

Taly
Titus
Galron

SCUM

PREFERENCE:

Enchant? (Not sure if serious)

PREFERENCE NOT YET STATED:

MegAzumarill

MAFIA ROLES

POOL:

1-Shot Strongman (mastina)
1-Shot Universal Backup (mastina)
Mafia PT Cop (mastina)
Informed Goon (Enchant)
Macho 1x Strongman (Enchant)
Mafia Rolecop (Enchant)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Rolestopper/Rolecop (House)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Hider/Watcher (House)
Ascetic Strongman (House)
Mafia Neapolitan (Taly)
Mafia Neighborizer (Taly)
Mafia Combined Rolecop, Loyal Neighborizer Loyal Doctor Traitor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Disloyal Universal Backup Encryptor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Personal Alien Mailman (Titus)
Ninja (Scorpious)
Mafia JOAT (Scorpious)
Mafia Roleblocker (Scorpious)
Mafia Loud Alien (Galron)
Mafia 2-shot Strongman (Galron)
Mafia Roleblocker (Yume)
Mafia RoleCop (Yume)
Mafia Neighbour (Yume)
Mafia Roleblocker (Greeting)
(Mafia (not specific)) Jailkeeper (Flea the Magician)
(not specific) Informed Goon (Flea the Magician)

MAFIA ROLE

FREQUENCY:

Strongman: x4
Rolecop: 4 (+2 variants)
Ascetic: 3
Roleblocker: 3 (+1 variant)
Rolestopper/Variant: 3
Universal Backup: 2
Neighborizer: 2 (+1 variant)
Informed: 2

PICKS NOT YET STATED:

MegAzumarill
CheekyTeeky

Between the players having stated town and the player refusing to state a preference, we have 9/13 players.

So what this tells me:

Taly

and Titus are town;
Galron is

probably

town.

If Enchant is town, which he probably is, then all three scum would be in those that didn't claim or claimed town.

Removing myself, that pool?
{House, Scorpious, Yume, Greeting, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}.

Of those players?

Greeting has no completed scumgames per their wiki. They have four towngames and zero scumgames. The preference for a towngame is probably thus true and accurate. So

Greeting is town

.

Scorpious's wiki leaves it unclear, but very loosely imo indicates that town is

slightly

more likely.

House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the pool

for now

until I track it down.

Ditto for Flea; fae might've stated faer preference but I can't remember it.

Yume might've stated preference on one of her accounts but thanks to the number of them I can't track it down.

If Cheeky has stated her preference previously, I don't know it.

zefiend is impossible to track; ditto, for Meg.

So sadly, that doesn't narrow the pool down as much as I want, but it still helps as a

starting

point.

It gives us 3/7.5 names as scum from a narrowed list.

Not quite 50% odds of hitting scum, but 40% odds of hitting scum beats the default 25% we'd have otherwise (3/12).

And from this, we can get into the reads on players from that list.

{House,

Scorpious

, Yume, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}

Cheeky's play looks like scum;
Meg's play looks like scum.

Even if both are scum, that'd leave 1/4 of the remaining prime suspects as candidates.

What mastina is doing both scum!mastina and town!mastina could do; the act is merely Information Instead of Analysis, which is NAI. However there are some flaws, and although I have no way to prove it, what mastina says about what everyone submitted is not 100% true.

I submitted town preference overall, but all three of my scum roles were rejected (which seems ridiculous reading what some of y'all claim to submitted) -- so I was assigned a Vanilla preference if rolling scum.

I will also be keeping my own notes on people's claims, but if someone wants to neighborize me into mastina's PT so that I don't have to keep notes, it would be appreciated.

Not enough petty arguments to generate any reads yet.

This makes me lean town on zefiend.

Which leaves 1-3 scum in {House, Yume, Flea the Magician}.

I could see it being any of them, but while I can't read House worth a damn, loosely, I think his contributions are town. I think 102 was accurate regardless (if House is scum, he was the scum; otherwise, it's probably Meg), and find the Cheeky House vote there sus.

If I had to go gun to my head, I'd say that in {Yume, Flea, House}, towniest to scummiest it'd be House > Yume > Flea.

So right now, I'm thinking:

All 3 scum are in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill, House, Yume, Flea the Magician};
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill have a high chance of being scum;
House is less likely scum;
There's 1-2 scum in {Yume, Flea the Magician};
There's basically a guaranteed scum, 1-2, in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill}

.

[mastina]

(this is important enough that I'm going to...)

[mastina]

I didn't mean technicalities, I meant the method itself. Some players submitted town preference, some submitted scum preference. Some townies might have submitted scum preference. What if scums lie about scum preference and those townies who submitted scum preference didn't lie and simply didn't get it? This is what I'm sceptical about.

Well about that.

If Enchant was serious about submitting scum preference, then I'm pretty sure that if the mod gave everyone their stated preference?

We have three scum who submitted scum preference and then either refused to state their alignment preference (Cheeky, Meg) or lied about it and said they had town preference. (Technically, they could lie and say 'no preference', but I've reason to believe that everyone who claimed 'No Preference' is actually town here, just off of who the names claiming no preference are. I don't think scum truthfully claimed no preference given Enchant, and I don't think scum lied about it being no preference given who the names are and basic psychology in mafia play in that mafia would be afraid to claim 'no preference' if they thought that claiming no preference would make them more likely to be seen as a scum candidate.)

Spoiler: Notes

TOWN

PREFERENCE:

mastina

House
Scorpious
Yume
Greeting
Flea the Magician
CheekyTeeky (after much resistance)
ɀefiend

NO ALIGNMENT PREFERENCE:

Taly
Titus
Galron

SCUM

PREFERENCE:

Enchant? (Not sure if serious)

PREFERENCE NOT YET STATED:

MegAzumarill

MAFIA ROLES

POOL:

1-Shot Strongman (mastina)
1-Shot Universal Backup (mastina)
Mafia PT Cop (mastina)
Informed Goon (Enchant)
Macho 1x Strongman (Enchant)
Mafia Rolecop (Enchant)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Rolestopper/Rolecop (House)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Hider/Watcher (House)
Ascetic Strongman (House)
Mafia Neapolitan (Taly)
Mafia Neighborizer (Taly)
Mafia Combined Rolecop, Loyal Neighborizer Loyal Doctor Traitor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Disloyal Universal Backup Encryptor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Personal Alien Mailman (Titus)
Ninja (Scorpious)
Mafia JOAT (Scorpious)
Mafia Roleblocker (Scorpious)
Mafia Loud Alien (Galron)
Mafia 2-shot Strongman (Galron)
Mafia Roleblocker (Yume)
Mafia RoleCop (Yume)
Mafia Neighbour (Yume)
Mafia Roleblocker (Greeting)
(Mafia (not specific)) Jailkeeper (Flea the Magician)
(not specific) Informed Goon (Flea the Magician)

MAFIA ROLE

FREQUENCY:

Strongman: x4
Rolecop: 4 (+2 variants)
Ascetic: 3
Roleblocker: 3 (+1 variant)
Rolestopper/Variant: 3
Universal Backup: 2
Neighborizer: 2 (+1 variant)
Informed: 2

PICKS NOT YET STATED:

MegAzumarill
CheekyTeeky

Between the players having stated town and the player refusing to state a preference, we have 9/13 players.

So what this tells me:

Taly

and Titus are town;
Galron is

probably

town.

If Enchant is town, which he probably is, then all three scum would be in those that didn't claim or claimed town.

Removing myself, that pool?
{House, Scorpious, Yume, Greeting, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}.

Of those players?

Greeting has no completed scumgames per their wiki. They have four towngames and zero scumgames. The preference for a towngame is probably thus true and accurate. So

Greeting is town

.

Scorpious's wiki leaves it unclear, but very loosely imo indicates that town is

slightly

more likely.

House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the pool

for now

until I track it down.

Ditto for Flea; fae might've stated faer preference but I can't remember it.

Yume might've stated preference on one of her accounts but thanks to the number of them I can't track it down.

If Cheeky has stated her preference previously, I don't know it.

zefiend is impossible to track; ditto, for Meg.

So sadly, that doesn't narrow the pool down as much as I want, but it still helps as a

starting

point.

It gives us 3/7.5 names as scum from a narrowed list.

Not quite 50% odds of hitting scum, but 40% odds of hitting scum beats the default 25% we'd have otherwise (3/12).

And from this, we can get into the reads on players from that list.

{House,

Scorpious

, Yume, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}

Cheeky's play looks like scum;
Meg's play looks like scum.

Even if both are scum, that'd leave 1/4 of the remaining prime suspects as candidates.

What mastina is doing both scum!mastina and town!mastina could do; the act is merely Information Instead of Analysis, which is NAI. However there are some flaws, and although I have no way to prove it, what mastina says about what everyone submitted is not 100% true.

I submitted town preference overall, but all three of my scum roles were rejected (which seems ridiculous reading what some of y'all claim to submitted) -- so I was assigned a Vanilla preference if rolling scum.

I will also be keeping my own notes on people's claims, but if someone wants to neighborize me into mastina's PT so that I don't have to keep notes, it would be appreciated.

Not enough petty arguments to generate any reads yet.

This makes me lean town on zefiend.

Which leaves 1-3 scum in {House, Yume, Flea the Magician}.

I could see it being any of them, but while I can't read House worth a damn, loosely, I think his contributions are town. I think 102 was accurate regardless (if House is scum, he was the scum; otherwise, it's probably Meg), and find the Cheeky House vote there sus.

If I had to go gun to my head, I'd say that in {Yume, Flea, House}, towniest to scummiest it'd be House > Yume > Flea.

So right now, I'm thinking:

All 3 scum are in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill, House, Yume, Flea the Magician};
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill have a high chance of being scum;
House is less likely scum;
There's 1-2 scum in {Yume, Flea the Magician};
There's basically a guaranteed scum, 1-2, in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill}

.

Pagetopping this.

[mastina]

we wouldn't have had to submit roles for both alignments.

That's the thing though.

We didn't have to.

It was optional to do as much as we did.

[mastina]

Mastina knows my scum game, and knows I thrive more on scum because I actually find it easier to make reads as scum. I also have a pretty comprehensive wiki, which miraculously seems to have been forgotten about.

My scum games do such admittedly, but it's no secret I play for fun over form.

I'm also strong mislim bait because of my erratic behaviour and thought patterns.. the PoE seems too convenient to me and the reasoning lacks her usual convictions.

You think I didn't check your wiki, but actually, I did, clicking on this link.

In the descriptions, not once is their a statement of preferred alignment. You have your "best bits" section (which gives no inkling of your preferred alignment). You have your record there. (8 scumgames, 3 wins; 33 towngames, 19 wins.)

But nowhere is there any indication of an alignment preference in the wiki.

There's no way to tell from your wiki alone an alignment preference--absolutely none.

The only way to tell? By your statements in past games. And I said exactly the truth there:

House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the pool

for now

until I track it down.

Ditto for Flea;

fae might've stated faer preference but

I can't remember it

.

I don't remember. It's NOT on your wiki, and I don't remember, so it's something I don't have the resources to know about. Not on your wiki, my memory being shit, and thus, I could not remove you from the POE.

Wait explain

Taly/Galron/Titus

town

Mastina

?

Well I'm already townreading you and Titus for a start, but Galron? Every post of his makes me lean town. 67 and 74 in particular.

While this doesn't clear Galron because it's very weak, it is supported by my thesis.

We had nine players claim town preference.

Enchant claimed mafia preference.

If we assume Enchant did not get mafia with his preference and if we assume the mod prioritized giving players their preferred alignment, then that means three players submitted mafia preference aside from Enchant.

Those players would then have needed to lie about their preferred preference.

Their options were: {not stating their alignment preference, stating No Preference, stating town preference}.

Only three players stated No Preference.

Furthermore, scum who would lie about their alignment preference are psychologically more likely to say they submitted town, both because it's the direct opposite of their actual choice

and

because they would be afraid that if they said "No Preference", it'd put them in the elimination pool.

The reason for this is that the scum did not know the full math behind my mechanical reasons for asking about alignment preference. They'd have a fear that by saying "No Preference", they could be seen as scum. After all, what do you suppose happens if there's 9 players submitting town preference, 1 player submitting mafia preference, and then 3 players submitting No Preference? If that were to be the case, then 2/3 at minimum of the players submitting No Preference would be assigned Mafia due to prioritizing giving a town preference to every town player.

If the mod gave town to every player who submitted town preference, then the pool of scum would be limited to No Preference and Scum Preference.

Scum lying about them having submitted Scum Preference in favor of No Preference gives them no tactical advantage. They're still in what they'd assume to be the scumpool.

Scum lying about them having submitted Scum Preference in favor of Town Preference gives them a distinct tactical advantage. It prevents every player who submitted Town Preference from being conftown'd and better hides them and has a higher chance of keeping them out of the scum pool.

And thus, every player who claimed No Preference is going to be town.

why would I be [probably] town, as opposed to [full] town Taly and Titus? It is stated that the particular names are important, so is personal meta involved?

Personal meta is involved, yes.

Titus would, as scum, know that stating she submitted No Preference (when actually submitting Scum Preference) wouldn't have actually done her any good. (Or so she thought.) Titus would, as scum, have thought that saying she submitted No Preference would keep her in the scumspect pool just as much as having said scum preference.

Taly

would similarly think these things. I believe his No Preference as a result, and it's actually because he submitted No Preference that I think that all No Preferences are town (because, he's not going to be lying about No Preference, and if he got town, that indicates those who truthfully submitted No Preference were basically automatically assigned town).

You're less of a certainty because you're inexperienced in comparison to Titus and Taly. You, as scum, could

maybe

not have realized that submitting No Preference wouldn't take you out of an assumed POE.

But while you're not a certainty, you're still a probability of being town.

[mastina]

And by that logic, mastina submitted town as preference, which would not auto town-bin her if I'm looking at this correctly.

True, but I am the most conftown out of anyone, and the proof?

My Wiki page.

Notice something there? Right at the top, on the right?

Prefer to be a Pro-town Player.

Prefer to be an Investigator.

You might also note?

Last Updated: 23:29, 3 July 2018 (EDT)
This page was last modified on 3 July 2018, at 22:29.

That means it's not something which I could have edited since then.

"but mastina, couldn't your preference have changed since then?"

Why yes, it could have, but it didn't, and the proof is in

literally every game I have played

where I've stated how much I

loathe

playing scum. I've not had a good scumgame since

2019

. I HATE rolling scum, and it SHOWS. I literally

cannot

play as scum, and I can prove my town preference through literally. every. game. I've ever played. Both the scumgames which show why the fuck I hate playing scum,

and

a

multitude

of towngames where I explain precisely why I hate being scum.

So while I might not be cleared by the Claimed Town Preference angle, I have something that the other eight do not have in

their

claims:
The accounting record to prove that my claim is true.

Going back to the post, to me this reads as Me and House may have stated preference, but don't have wiki's to check what we're like.

Well you don't. You have a wiki. You don't have a wiki that gives me a clear idea on preference from the wiki.

Scorpious's wiki does; Greeting's wiki does.

But yours does not.

Not all wikis are created equal; not all player histories are created equal. Scorpious's indicates at least some aversion to scum; Greeting's strongly indicates why they wouldn't pick scum. Yours gives nothing. It has games, but the records aren't clear in giving me what I was looking for.

This is funny. I made 4 posts, 2 RVS votes, one projecting doubt on the logic that was coming, and my claims.
Yume has 1 post, and it's their claims.
House has several and is being themselves, he's laid back and doesn't seem to be taking this seriously.

Yeah, and from that content, my gutread was House > Yume > Flea towniest to scummiest. There wasn't any hard logic to it. Just being in the POE and having gut instinct.

We have a PoE of 4, early D1, from a mechsolve attempt in a uPick where we don't know if someones lying or not.

That's the thing though.

We have fairly strong evidence of where the lies are.

The players stating No Preference are incredibly likely to be telling the truth and town.

Enchant stated mafia preference and if he's not scum then it means he didn't get his preference meaning three players DID submit mafia preference and lied, saying they submitted town preference.

So we know that there's 3/9 liars in the Town Preference (+Unstated) list.

So analyzing players' history to see if they are likely to be telling the truth helps narrow down the scum pool.

I would never fucking ever submit scum preference. The proof can also be found in other games where I was allowed to submit alignment preference; I submitted town every single time.
Greeting has no scumgames and only towngames--this seems like the worst possible game to decide to be scum in, and thus, is likely telling the truth about submitting town.
Scorpious's scum history is dismal but has a history as town of doing decently--this is a reasonable indicator of him probably telling the truth.

Which gives 3/6 scum in the remaining, and from that list, I developed a townread on zefiend, which narrows it down to 3/5.

[mastina]

Mastina, let's talk about Galron for a bit. Galron makes perfect sense as a Meg partner. He says next to nothing about Yume's posting but votes anyway. That feels like an obvious attempt to eliminate LHF rather than a serious push on scum.

I think you're reading a lot into a vote, that wasn't actually present in the vote.

It's scum indicative for mastina who is meticulous in her mech reasoning. We just finished a game where she had the whole scumteam in her mech spec based on her knowledge of normals. Luckily she didn't back herself and went with her play reads instead so she didn't catch scum!me.

I am in fact meticulous in my mechanical reasoning and I'm not wrong on my reasoning here.

We had a claim of scum preference--if Enchant did not actually get scum while submitting scum preference, then that requires that the mod gave 3 players a scum role instead of Enchant. This requires that there be four players who stated a mafia preference, because if there were precisely 3 or less than 3, then Enchant should've gotten scum.

We had three claims of No Preference--taking the above as true, that means that either the names stating No Preference were scum lying (and were actually scum who submitted scum preference), or that they are telling the truth and thanks to the scum quota being fulfilled, rolled town by default.

I have decent reason to believe the players in No Preference are not scum who lied, both because of who the players are, townreading them off of their content so far, AND because of scum psychology; it is far more likely that scum who submitted scum preference telling a lie would say they submitted town, because if they said No Preference, they'd be afraid of being in the POE.

As a result, the pool is those who refused to state preference plus those who stated town preference.

Mechanically, that pool of nine must contain all scum (assuming Enchant is town). (Note that even if Enchant is scum, it probably still has 2/3.)

So if the scum submitted a scum preference but either refused to state preference or lied and said town, then it follows that you can conftown players who have a provable source which backs their claim of wanting to be town and preferring it.

Greeting has it.
Scorpious loosely has it.
I definitely have it.

And thus, the pool would be 6 players for three scum.

And I have a townread on one of the players within.

Limiting the pool to five.

The logic is mechanically sound.

[mastina]

The game would not be allowed to run if people can effectively choose their alignment.

Players submit normal legal roles/modifiers for town and mafia, along with optional preferences for town, mafia and vanilla, I build a normal review passing setup out of those picks

Is it possible your game has any procedurally bastard dynamics?

UPick, with some randomisation to minimise mod bias

Other:

When submitting roles players submit for both town and mafia, and can indicate a preference for town or mafia and/or for vanilla instead of power. Normal balance means there will be decent number of vanilla roles. I reserve the right to gate roles if it is the only way to get a balanced setup but I'll try to use the exact modifiers people submit if possible.

randomisation

Players are sorted into a list,

mafia preference at the top

and town preference at the bottom, and

randomised in those subgroups

. Players with

no preference

are

then added

randomly throughout the list. Vanillla preference is noted.

If there is a vanilla preference in the first 3 players those players are Mafia Goons and the rest get their Mafia PR. If there isn't then roll (1d8: 1 = 1 Mafia PR, 2-3 = 2 Mafia PR, 4-8 = 3 Mafia PR), power roles are assigned from the top and rest get vanilla.

Town power roles are assigned from the bottom skipping vanilla preference until it looks balanced and the rest are Vanilla Town.

When sorting out the balance different mafia power roles will be taken from the top of the player list working down and different town power roles will be taken from the bottom of the list working up.

Design Process

UPick Submissions:

A player may also submit a

Mafia Preference

or a

Town Preference

, and a

Vanilla Preference

if they would prefer to avoid a power role. Preferences are only that and may end up not being followed, but the role you receive will be a town power role or mafia power role from the ones you submitted, or the town vanilla or mafia goon roles presented below.

Faction Randomisation:

The player list will be randomised in such a way that

all players with a Mafia preference are at the top

and

all players with a Town preference are at the bottom

. All people with a vanilla preference will have that penciled in.

The top 3 players will be penciled in as Mafia

.

UPick considerations:

My assumption is

I will receive more Mafia preferences than available slots

, making

a Town preference very likely to be certain

. I also do not expect to receive many Vanilla preferences so I expect to be able to fulfill all of those. However, any of these are preferences and not certain. I also expect roles with gating modifiers to be easier to fit into a balanced set up, so consider that when making your submission, especially if your main desire is to be most likely to get a power role of some sort, not a particular role if you do get one.

It seems like it can be basically precisely that actually.

It's not

certain

.

But it's

very likely

.

[mastina]

Okay then. I guess I'll follow mastina down the garden path until I get a chance to map this out. I need to find that thread where someone was able to confer titles on people. Schadd I think.

For the record, play-wise?

Ignoring mechanics, play-wise my POE would be:

{Galron,

House

, Yume, Flea the Magician, MegAzumarill, CheekyTeeky} (House basically outside of it, but with healthy respect paid).

Purely by a readslist ignoring mechanics, it'd look something like this:

Taly
Titus
Greeting

Enchant

House
ɀefiend
Scorpious

Galron

Yume

Flea The Magician

CheekyTeeky
MegAzumarill

With the tiers, locktown town lean town ambivalent-null nullscum scumlean scum.

Mechanics bump Galron up but honestly? A lot of my reads aren't based on my mechanical solve. The mechanical solve I feel is good, solid, and valid, but the reads I have aren't actually affected by it since the reads are there anyway.

I'm having a bit of a bad brain day (which is unfortunate, I know I need to be active and involved, so I do truly apologize for it), so I'm not really going to be able to explain these reads off of non-mechanical reasons right now, but I'll try to get in explanations as I am able to.

[mastina]

Oh Taly's post reminded me of this.

If you prefer investigative roles why did you submit mason?

I don't recall saying I submitted mason.

I will say however that the wiki code I used is quite limited and archaic; it was made in like 2008 or so, and way back then? Masons WERE classified as an Investigative role. Because Investigative was, in a way, a sort of catch-all term for "a town player who has more information than the rest of the town, either through results or their initial role PM" (the latter being the mason part).

[mastina]

V/LA 48 hours

(Closing Wednesday into opening Thursday = can't post at all on Wednesday.)
Won't be able to post at all on Wednesday, but I'll force posts later tonight and on Thursday regardless of how much I don't feel like them.

[mastina]

Official Votecount 1.4

MegAzumarill (4): Titus, House, mastina, Taly

[E-3]

Btw there's a high chance of these all being town.

Four town voting a player.

While there's always the chance of an entirely town-led wagon on town.

I still like our odds here. And want that flip anyway.

If MegAzumarill is town, then it still gives information on the gamestate.

And in the far more likely scenario MegAzumarill is scum? Free scum elimination!

[mastina]

Scorpius reminds me of newbie scum clemency.

(For the record, I think that House-Scorpious has a high chance of being tVt but Cheeky's chime-in here I think is scum.)

[mastina]

Someone explain to me how enchant is town

Gut + gamestate, basically, honestly.

That plus mechspech.

[mastina]

I JUST GOT SO MUCH DE JA VU
HAS THIS EXACT GAME HAPPENED BEFORE

I get this feeling allllll the time, not gonna lie. Like, I get a tonnnnnnn of games where I

swear

that I'm having deja vu.

Then again, when you've played like 400 games or so onsite, you tend to have a lot of duplicate things come up.

[mastina]

How do you feel about

Scorp

?

Scorpius reminds me of newbie scum clemency.

(For the record, I think that House-Scorpious has a high chance of being tVt but Cheeky's chime-in here I think is scum.)

^
(Also I think Scorpious is mechtown beyond being town by play.)

[mastina]

Official Votecount 1.4

MegAzumarill (4): Titus, House, mastina, Taly

[E-3]

Btw there's a high chance of these all being town.

Four town voting a player.

If MegAzumarill is town, then it still gives information on the gamestate.

+Scorpious to that.

I genuinely think that the 5 main names on the wagon have a very high chance of being town.

Taly is definitely town; Titus is very strongly likely to be town; I maintain that both House and Scorpious are highly likely to be town.

I realize the scum killed CheekyTeeky when Cheeky was a mislim target and that both Cheeky and Meg were town.

But while I think that does necessitate a reassessment of prior assumptions, I don't believe the correct thing to do is "throw out all prior reads in favor of starting from scratch and immediately paranoia-scumread prior townreads".

I still believe my mechsolve was more right than not.
I still believe my townreads separate from mechanics were more right than not.

I will need to assess things more, but for a start?

{Galron, Enchant, Greeting, Flea the Magician, Dwlee, zefiend} is the initial sorting pool.

Greeting is very very very obviously town here, so should be removed (not to mention mechanics support this as town anyway).

{Galron, Enchant, Flea the Magician, Dwlee, zefiend} is the remainder.

I'm not really sure who the scum in there is, but I'll say that I have scumreads on both Flea and Dwlee here and my Galron townread has evaporated and literally the only thing keeping me from thinking Galron is scum is the mechanics-theory since without that I'd just lock the scumteam as {Galron, Flea, Dwlee}.

I still like Enchant as town for both my mechanics theory and Enchant's play, but it's not nearly as strong.

I do need to reassess, which is why I'm not casting a vote. Might not get around to reassessing tonight, but I'll be doing the dive into the probable scum here soon(TM).

[mastina]

Like... Where is second NK.

I considered not sharing this, but there's multiple ways it could've happened, already mentioned inthread.

However, I'm going to immediately backtrack on my "I realize scum killed CheekyTeeky", with the realization that there's three ways for Cheeky to have died that I feel are most likely. (I was considering not sharing them since it inherently involves rolespec into potential town PRs, which could be bad for the town, but ultimately I'm making the call to share it in spite of the risk of giving scum rolespec info.)

Cheeky could've been roleblocked by town and killed by scum, OR:
Cheeky could've been roleblocked by scum and killed by a town vig (with the scum kill missing due to some form of town killstopper), OR:
Cheeky could've been roleblocked by town and killed by a town vig (with the scum kill missing due to some form of town killstopper).

I find that these three scenarios are the most likely.

Obviously tho, we'll cross that bridge when we come to massclaim and we're not massclaiming on D2. (Generally speaking we massclaim the day before lylo which is D3 with no scum elimination, OR, we massclaim when two scum are dead for the potential to snowball the town into mechsolving for the third. Since we've fulfilled neither condition...)

It obviously

does

make a difference because if the kill was a scum kill it's different to if the kill was a town kill which is different from if the kill was scum both roleblocking and killing a target (this seems absurd to me, personally, but if we have no town roleblocker and no town vig claim then none of the three scenarios I think are most likely could be true), but while it might make a difference, outing the town PRs isn't worth it on D2 for the info on Cheeky.

So I'll need to look into it and see it both ways. Again, will be doing that deep-dive look later, just...can't do it right now.

[mastina]

Cheeky also suspected Taly which I admit does concern me a bit.
*hint hint, investigative roles*

Nah, targeting Taly is a waste of an investigative (unless you're talking Watcher since Taly is the highest priority nightkill imo for the scum to make, even higher than me); Taly's by far the towniest player here and cannot be scum because this is absolutely not Taly as scum here.

Investigatives should be narrowing the pool even further for viable scum. I'd investigate in {Galron, Enchant, Flea the Magician, Dwlee, zefiend} personally.

[mastina]

So right now, I'm thinking:
All 3 scum are in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill, House, Yume, Flea the Magician};
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill have a high chance of being scum;
House is less likely scum;
There's 1-2 scum in {Yume, Flea the Magician};
There's basically a guaranteed scum, 1-2, in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill}.

I'm going to at the least post this and ask mastina to address it. Just being wrong doesn't explain it I don't think.

Mechanically speaking, removing the play-based townread I had on zefiend, it's not wrong (except on the guaranteed scum in Cheeky/Meg part which was also mostly play-based).

{zefiend, House, Dwlee, Flea the Magician} all are in the poe for scum based off of my mechanical solve.

Ignoring the mechanical solve and going by the play based solve, you sub House out (town by play) and add in Galron and Enchant, with Enchant as loosely town but not enough to be outside of the pool altogether.

The two pools have overlap of {zefiend, Dwlee, Flea}. Which is possible as the scumteam admittedly but I doubt my skills to have pinned the exact solve between mechanics and play, so the question then becomes, do you trust my mechanics more or my reads more?

Greeting and Scorpious remain town by both mechanics and reads; so too does Titus and Taly.

So there's 2-3 scum in {zefiend, Dwlee, Flea} if my mechanics spec is onpoint (with 0-1 in House),
Or there's 1-3 scum in {zefiend, Dwlee, Flea} if my reads are onpoint (with 0-2 in {Galron, Enchant}, likely not Enchant).

Obviously, I owe due process to my townreads.

But I still think I'm more right than wrong. (Especially if it turns out that Cheeky wasn't a scum kill btw. Obviously, I don't want to know if we have a vig, but IF we do, then there's a high chance that scum tried to kill me last night and ran afoul of a killstop role there since I was an incredibly probable protect since basically every player in this list has reason to NK me N1.)

It's either my mechanics right, or my play reads right, with the incredibly-arrogant-and-thus-probably-not-actually-right chance of both being right. I just don't know which, yet.

[mastina]

Will deconstruct mastina later when I have laptop and some time.

Yeah and that's why you're scum. <3

[mastina]

(Flea if town doesn't scumread me here.)

[mastina]

So I was planning on posting today, but my internet failed.

I won't be able to tonight or tomorrow night, so my only chance is tomorrow at noon, given that I will once more be vla for 48 hours come tomorrow. Will do what I can tho.

[mastina]

Youre stuck in mechsolve. Which is Scumstina.

The thing about that though is you keep trying to sell a narrative that is objectively not true.

I don't see anything separating this from my experience with her scum game in chrono trigger besides posting rate (which I believe she didn't post because of irl stuff there, not cause she was scum)

As an example of another thing objectively not true, you can look at this, too; this is literally backwards.

In terms of posting rate, I'm actually pretty sure that I'm in line with Chrono Trigger. I'm relatively low in my posting.

In terms of content of the posts, literally nothing is alike in my play between Chrono Trigger and here.

Also, isn't Dwlee the player who is adamant about "meta bad"? Why are they using meta on me here?

I'm fairly comfortable doing this:
VOTE: Dwlee99

I realize it has a decent chance of not being right; my poe pool is large enough to still contain town. (Especially the play-based pool.)

But Dwlee is one of the three players in both pools and there's enough suspect there to make me comfortable with the vote.

I kinda want to limit the pool to {Dwlee = Flea > zefiend} here, honestly, for today's eliminations.

[mastina]

You people are weird. Dwlee's town.

If

Dwlee99

is town then who is scum,

ɀefiend

or

Flea The Magician

?

Well, yes, if Dwlee is town then I would think those two would have a much much higher chance of being scum.

I am pretty damn sure there's a minimum of 1 town in {House, Enchant} with a fairly high chance both are town.

Given {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} as town, that narrows down the scum to 2-3 (with a fairly high chance of being 3) of:

{Galron, zefiend, Dwlee99, Flea the Magician}.

(I admit my townread on Scorpious is not as strong as the townreads on Taly/Titus/Greeting, or for that matter House/Enchant but I still think Scorpious is unlikely to be scum here.)

If that pool of four has 2-3 scum in it, then one flipping town basically confirms the rest as scum imo.

[mastina]

Btw I'm

pretty

sure that Flea's 1217 is a scum-Flea case?

I'm pretty sure that's not how Flea cases as town and I'm pretty sure I've seen Flea write a case almost exactly like that one when fae were scum.

This is purely from memory and my memory is shit, so it's something which ideally should be verified when I have more time, but yeah, I do think that Flea has a quite significant chance of being scum here.

[mastina]

I hadn't considered the possibility Taly might be Ascetic. Nice catch.

Eh, I doubt Taly's ascetic, tho that does remind me of yet another possibility;

Rolestopper and Alien both would cause a hider targeting their target to fail.

So failure conditions are:
Target is Ascetic;
Target is Commuter;
Direct-roleblock of CheekyTeeky;
Direct-jailkeep of CheekyTeeky;
Direct-Alien of CheekyTeeky;
Rolestopper rolestopping hide target;
Alien rolestopping hide target.

But I agree that ultimately, while it's not unimportant (it does have implications), speculating on D2 is not productive and is arguably anti-town.

[mastina]

I hadn't considered the possibility Taly might be Ascetic. Nice catch.

Eh, I doubt Taly's ascetic, tho that does remind me of yet another possibility;

Rolestopper and Alien both would cause a hider targeting their target to fail.

So failure conditions are:
Target is Ascetic;
Target is Commuter;
Direct-roleblock of CheekyTeeky;
Direct-jailkeep of CheekyTeeky;
Direct-Alien of CheekyTeeky;
Rolestopper rolestopping hide target;
Alien rolestopping hide target.

But I agree that ultimately, while it's not unimportant (it does have implications), speculating on D2 is not productive and is arguably anti-town.

(For the record, direct jailkeep and direct-Alien aren't impossible--it'd require scum strongmanning CheekyTeeky, which I find to be unlikely, but strictly speaking, not impossible.

I do think the most likely scenario tho is CheekyTeeky was roleblocked, just roleblocked, and also killed, but that these actions did not both come from scum and at least one was from town.)

Also:

Btw I'm

pretty

sure that Flea's 1217 is a scum-Flea case?

I'm pretty sure that's not how Flea cases as town and I'm pretty sure I've seen Flea write a case almost exactly like that one when fae were scum.

This is purely from memory and my memory is shit, so it's something which ideally should be verified when I have more time, but yeah, I do think that Flea has a quite significant chance of being scum here.

Youre stuck in mechsolve. Which is Scumstina.

The thing about that though is you keep trying to sell a narrative that is objectively not true.

I don't see anything separating this from my experience with her scum game in chrono trigger besides posting rate (which I believe she didn't post because of irl stuff there, not cause she was scum)

As an example of another thing objectively not true, you can look at this, too; this is literally backwards.

In terms of posting rate, I'm actually pretty sure that I'm in line with Chrono Trigger. I'm relatively low in my posting.

In terms of content of the posts, literally nothing is alike in my play between Chrono Trigger and here.

Also, isn't Dwlee the player who is adamant about "meta bad"? Why are they using meta on me here?

I'm fairly comfortable doing this:
VOTE: Dwlee99

I realize it has a decent chance of not being right; my poe pool is large enough to still contain town. (Especially the play-based pool.)

But Dwlee is one of the three players in both pools and there's enough suspect there to make me comfortable with the vote.

I kinda want to limit the pool to {Dwlee = Flea > zefiend} here, honestly, for today's eliminations.

You people are weird. Dwlee's town.

If

Dwlee99

is town then who is scum,

ɀefiend

or

Flea The Magician

?

Well, yes, if Dwlee is town then I would think those two would have a much much higher chance of being scum.

I am pretty damn sure there's a minimum of 1 town in {House, Enchant} with a fairly high chance both are town.

Given {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} as town, that narrows down the scum to 2-3 (with a fairly high chance of being 3) of:

{Galron, zefiend, Dwlee99, Flea the Magician}.

(I admit my townread on Scorpious is not as strong as the townreads on Taly/Titus/Greeting, or for that matter House/Enchant but I still think Scorpious is unlikely to be scum here.)

If that pool of four has 2-3 scum in it, then one flipping town basically confirms the rest as scum imo.

Gonna pagetop these.

[mastina]

Go dismantle the case if you think it's bad. I'm looking forward to it.

Oh it is a bad case and I could, I just see no reason to, but it's not the case being bad which makes it scum; it's the case being what it is combined with your perspective where you're focused on "dismantling" which makes me pretty sure it's you as scum.

[mastina]

Which ftr she's on my n1 kill list.

Yeah about that.

If Cheeky wasn't killed by scum, there's a pretty damn high chance I was, so...

[mastina]

I'd like her to tell me whether that's a fair assessment of where she's at.

Not quite--you were an initial townread but then I doubted it down to null, pending more.

You're still there.

It's just that I have 5/10 or so slots as townreads so null places you in the poe.

The last person I'd eliminate from the poe mind you, but still in there.

[mastina]

I'm a fucking Jailkeeper.
I jailed Taly N1.

Imo, this is an incredibly believable claim. I'm not absolutely sure it's genuinely town, but it has at least a fairly high chance of being genuine and town.

Even if I had larger doubts, this is a claim that boxes scum in. If genuinely town, then there's the chance of stopping another kill or even if we get down to one scum conftowning players. And if not genuinely town, then it still limits kills since zefiend will need to justify each and every move made.

He can live to a minimum of D4 as far as I'm concerned. Maybe longer, depending on number of dead scum.

I’m a 1-shot Neapolitan and I was blocked last night looking at Zefiend..

This claim far less so. It singlehandedly moves Scorpious from a fairly strong town read mechanically and decent townread by play down to null. It's an absolutely garbage claim. It

could

be town but it doesn't hit any of the notes I'd expect from a town PR in this game.

I'd prefer not to eliminate Scorpious today, but he's far less town to me now than he was before.

Today I think the elimination should be one of {Flea, Dwlee} and that tomorrow regardless of the flip that we should then flip the other.

On D4, when we get there, we can, from those flips, do a recheck on the townness and such of players and see if we can get a refined solve.

[mastina]

VOTE: Flea The Magician

[mastina]

VOTE: Dwlee99

Yes, I realize that Flea flipped town and that means a requirement for revisiting the PoE.

Yes, I'm beginning to believe that Scorpious is scum.

But I still want Dwlee dead, as part of the PoE.

I'm convinced that Taly is town.
I'm fairly sure that Titus and Greeting are town. House is up there, too.
I don't want to vote out Enchant today, that can wait until tomorrow after we massclaim IMO.
Zefiend as a claimed JK when we just had a no death and N1 was also possibly a save, is off the table as well.

Now, while this townbloc may need a revisit tomorrow if we get another townflip outside of it, FOR NOW, that leaves a PoE of:
Galron, Dwlee, Scorpious.
I prefer Dwlee first, but I would vote any of those three. I think that we have a minimum of 2/3 scum there. If we don't, then we need to reassess some assumptions, but like I said, that can wait until tomorrow after massclaim.

[mastina]

Just because the eliminations are bad doesn't mean the PoE itself is. We could have a misread in more universal townreads but assessing who is town in the current pool would be a better direction to solve than "you're not town enough, die" or "everything we know is wrong."

I really don't think we have more than 1 scum maximum in

Titus/Taly/mastina/House/Greeting

.

Tbh my reads have not changed much.

^Pretty much this.

I am inclined to believe Scorpious was sent to perform the kill and would be willing to vote there.

I agree, but the reason I voted Dwlee is,
1: I believe that Scorpious, whatever scum role he is (goon, PR), is the most expendable member of the scumteam;
2: I believe that the scumteam knew Scorpious was blocked last night and knew he was going down;
3: As such I believe that Dwlee's vote of Scorpious before the result was scum-indicative as TMI.

That said, I'll still settle for a guaranteed scum elimination over a probable scum elimination even if said guaranteed scum elimination is worthless to the scumteam and said probable scum elimination likely still has a use to the scumteam. Because guaranteed scum elimination > probable scum elimination.

(I'm not voting Scorpious because I'm letting players get a chance to check in.)

[mastina]

This is fair,and I guess my fault. I am a JOAT, I nea'd Z NI(no result), Tried watch House last night, obviously I was jailed. I have informed and vig left.

Huh.

Weirdly enough, I actually believe this claim as town, but it would actually be a fairly bad thing in regards to Enchant and/or House.

I'm not sure if I should share what I am thinking publicly tho.

[mastina]

This is fair,and I guess my fault. I am a JOAT, I nea'd Z NI(no result), Tried watch House last night, obviously I was jailed. I have informed and vig left.

Huh.

Weirdly enough, I actually believe this claim as town, but it would actually be a fairly bad thing in regards to Enchant and/or House.

I'm not sure if I should share what I am thinking publicly tho.

I'll say that in spite of the implications, I don't want to vote Enchant/House today.

I don't want to vote Scorpious here due to believing his claim has a decent chance of being real and being town. (Barring my original scenario which I thought was the case being true, which Scorpious's claim throws into doubt.)
I don't want to vote zefiend here due to zefiend's jailkeep.
I don't want to vote House/Enchant

today

, although obviously this may need reevaluation later.

I'm never voting Taly here and I still don't think that Titus is scum here.

So I'm quite liking my vote on Dwlee, thankyouverymuch!

[mastina]

We could leash

Scorp's

vig.

MOD: Would an activated Informed be possible to be roleblocked?
E.g. if an Informed were part of a JOAT, could the information fail to be given if roleblocked?

(This is something I don't think the NRG has an answer for due to how niche it is. I'm on the NRG and I don't know the answer to this, to give you an idea of how niche it is, so I don't think we have it standardized meaning I do need to ask the mod about it.)

If we don't eliminate the scum roleblocker, I'd actually prefer the use of the Informed if it can't be blocked.
(That said, if it can be blocked, the two are about equal; if we eliminate the scum roleblocker, the vig is better.)

Like i really don't know how to deal with that, unless we manage to kill roleblocker duh.

Vote Dwlee and we have a chance to do precisely that.

If Scorpious is town, I'm 100% sure that Dwlee must be scum.

Granted, Scorpious-town is not a guarantee, and Scorpious-scum still could exist even with Dwlee-scum, but if Scorpious is in fact town (and I actually believe he is), then Dwlee is lockscum here.

And guaranteed scum > probable scum here. And now, the guaranteed scum is Dwlee. They are definitely scum (if Scorpious is town), with a chance of being a scum roleblocker.

[mastina]

Right now, I am thinking massclaim might be in order. We've got a lot on the table and arguably a leashable jailkeeper

Not today. Tomorrow tho!

And yeah that is elo. Shit.

I am aware that a mislim today would be mylo tomorrow.

However, mylo and lylo are not equivalent.

You want to claim the day before lylo.

You do not want to claim the day before mylo.

In mylo, you have a choice: either you massclaim and do an elimination, OR, you don't claim and then you no-lim. (You absolutely do not massclaim then no-lim.)

I prefer massclaim + elimination, usually.

But since tomorrow is mylo, we don't claim today; we claim, then eliminate, tomorrow.

Is there a way to figure out if town has more than 3 power roles given a balanced setup?

I need someone who is more experienced in mafia setups to help me with this. It's really important.

I'm a NRG member, I can give the rundown on NRG balance fairly well.

General balance in games is 3-4 town PRs of moderate-strong (emphasis

moderate

) strength, versus all goons (or one, fairly weak, scum role).

The more/stronger roles you add to one side, the more you need to compensate on the other side.

One strong scum PR means you need 4 strong town PRs or 5 moderately strong town PRs.

Two (moderate) scum PRs means you need 4-6 town PRs. 4 if really strong, 6 if fairly weak.

Two strong scum PRs means you need 5-6 town PRs, 5 if fairly strong, 6 if fairly weak.

Three scum PRs means you need 5-6 town PRs. You can't really have three strong scum PRs because that'd push the town's PRs into too absurdly strong/numerous, so three scum PRs would be comparatively weak.

Now, granted.

One weak scum PR means you need only 3-4 moderate to strong (but emphasis strong in this case) town PRs.
Two weak scum PRs means you need only 4-5 town PRs of moderate strength.

And these are just general guidelines. The specifics vary widely, depending on the setup.

But it gives you a decent starting point.

I'll be able to give you a damn good idea come massclaim, assuming I survive to see tomorrow. (Again, we shouldn't massclaim today, we should tomorrow, so not a guarantee I live sadly. But if I do? I can break the game from the claims.)

[mastina]

This game is breakable via massclaim I just don't know when it is optimal here

Tomorrow, especially with me alive.

Optionally for massclaim (idk why we doing this) we can claim townpicks instead.

Oh definitely, we just shouldn't do that today.

[mastina]

When I inevitably die, you fuckers

owe

me a Dwlee elimination.

Because you fucking forced through an elimination I very specifically told you not to.

And when I die, you will know EXACTLY why I told you NOT to eliminate Scorpious today.

[mastina]

Like, we lost nothing from letting Scorpious live one day and give us info--literally NOTHING.

We would gain whatever that info was.

I specifically told you NOT to vote him.

I specifically told you I wanted Dwlee dead.

I had

damn fucking good reason

to want Dwlee dead over Scorpious.

[mastina]

MOD: Would an activated Informed be possible to be roleblocked?
E.g. if an Informed were part of a JOAT, could the information fail to be given if roleblocked?

(This is something I don't think the NRG has an answer for due to how niche it is. I'm on the NRG and I don't know the answer to this, to give you an idea of how niche it is, so I don't think we have it standardized meaning I do need to ask the mod about it.)

An activated informed would not be blocked.

Then leaving Scorpious alive for night makes sense.

Says the person who then hammered Scorpious.

[mastina]

Mastina

and you flesh out your

Dwlee

read?

Well aside from having very good mechspec reasons for thinking Dwlee is scum here that I would've revealed publicly tomorrow (but now I'm probably dead tonight)?

Just the PoE.

You're town.
zefiend was off the table as a jailkeeper claim.
Scorpious

should

have been off the table with that JOAT claim.
For every one of {Greeting, Titus, House} you trust to be town, you need to remove them from the elimination pool.

Which leaves not a lot of options.

Enchant I wanted to be off the table, in case one of my mechspecs was correct, and again I wanted to wait until tomorrow. He'd have been on the table instantly if my mechspec wasn't right but since massclaim should be tomorrow, I wanted to wait until tomorrow.

Which left {Galron, Dwlee} today.

Dwlee is by far the more scum of the two.

[mastina]

There is a 62.5% likelihood of there being three mafia power roles. Let's assume that this game does have three mafia power roles.
So, most likely, we have three, up to four, town power roles. It's unlikely there's less than three or more than four.

Read what I said again.

Three scum PRs would mean ~5-6 town PRs.

Cheeky + Scorpious would be 2/5-6. zefiend if town would be 3/5-6. That leaves room for 2-3 more TPRs.

Granted, massclaim will help a lot there in helping sort things but now that Scorpious is dead you fuckers did the work of scum for them and the night will be much much much easier for them.

mastina

, do you think that it's likely for more than one town investigative role to exist in this game?

Depends on the investigative and the nature of what is considered investigative. You can build a setup with 4 investigative roles, or you can build a setup with none, and anywhere in-between. I'd need to live until massclaim had finished before I could tell you but with Scorpious being fucking limmed, I probably die tonight.

[mastina]

Hey House you've been around for a long time, right?

You're familiar, then, with a concept called "(now forbidden term) All Liars", currently renamed to Lim All Liars?

The scum killed the wrong mason if they thought that wasn't going to be enforced, since both Taly and Andante weren't inclined to actually vote you, but I am.

Because:
Greeting literally was softclaiming PR the entire game and was obvtown. (In the Greeting v House 1v1 I'd have always killed House 100%.)
Greeting was both
The most obvtown player in the game aside from the masons, and,
A claimed town PR, and probably our only investigative PR.
More than that, Greeting would've become a fucking COP if we had eliminated scum yesterday. If we eliminated scum yesterday there'd be only one scum left, meaning that Greeting generating results would be directly equivalent to a cop.
What does that mean? It means scum would be forced to kill Greeting, meaning that the town absolutely

should not

have eliminated Greeting.
But there's more.

I didn't get a chance to post

at all

yesterday thanks to the guilty claim.

We didn't get to do the massclaim we were supposed to do thanks to the guilty claim.

You caused the town to vote out the towniest player in the game, who was probably our only town investigative, who was literally going to become a cop and be scum's problem, prevented me from talking, prevented the town from completing massclaim, and prevented the town from eliminating scum.

So let me reintroduce you to the concept of Lim All Liars.

You lied yesterday.
You claimed a guilty on a town player and forced through an elimination on town.
So the consequences of that lie are to be reintroduced to the consequences of Lim All Liars.
VOTE: House

The way I figure it, this is a win-win:
If House is scum and the fakeclaim there was him playing to his wincon, we get a second dead scum today.

If House is town and we lose the game by eliminating him? Well then I'll

gladly

take the loss of a single game to teach House a fundamental principle that literally every town player should know and should know they will be held to, in that it should never be allowed and should always be punished.

Either he's scum having done it, or he needs to be taught a lesson as to why town never is allowed to do that.

We do NOT let town players fakeclaim guilties on town players that lead to the elimination of said town player (especially when said town player is both obvtown and a PR) and then just let them get away with "oops mb".

So either it's the correct thing to do because House scum, or it's the correct thing to do because House needs to be taught the lesson.
House has been around long enough to know that term, so he has been around long enough to know that I am going to enforce that.

If House is town, he cannot place ANY blame on me voting him or on Greeting. HE was the one who claimed the guilty on Greeting. It was ALL HIM. So fuck House if he's town, let this be a lesson to you as to why what you did was Not. Okay.

If House is scum? All the better, we get a dead scum from it.

So I'm never not voting House here.

[mastina]

tl;dr:

Eliminate (Lim) All Liars is a longstanding mantra in the mafiascum.net community. Quite simply, most Townies have no reason to lie about their actions, motivations, or roles. Many newish Townies will attempt to lie in attempts to gambit, and fail miserably by hurting the Town in the process. These lies can be indistinguishable from deliberate scum gambits, and leaving them unpunished reinforces the behavior as a viable option for scum.

For example, Vanilla Townies who try to roleclaim Doctor in an attempt to draw the Mafia's Night-kill tend to cause the

real

Doctor to counterclaim them, thus

definitely

causing the Mafia to target them. In addition to this, scum have been known to deliberately fakeclaim Doctor with the express purpose of drawing a counterclaim for this reason. The elimination of the Vanilla Townie is then justified.

Generally, gambits are not successful. If they were, they would probably be on this wiki or otherwise public knowledge. Thus, rather than wind up on the receiving end of Eliminate All Liars, it is best not to try to gambit unless you fully understand the implications of your actions. This comes primarily with experience.

Eliminate All Liars is also why scum should not wantonly gamble with the Town's patience as well.

House Lied, and the lie directly lead to the elimination of a slot that was literally the most obvtown nonmason slot in the game who was also a strong town investigative power role.

House is thus either scum, or town that furthered the scum win condition in the absolute most pro-scum way possible.

He must face the consequences of his actions because Lim All Liars is a longstanding site policy for a reason.

[mastina]

I would also like to introduce you to this topic.

so there have been a bunch of threads about fakeclaiming, and i've mostly been in the "moderate" camp that said town should usually tell the truth except a few circumstances.

i'm not anymore. now i think town should just always tell the truth. period.

the idea behind this is simple. when it comes to roleclaiming, scum HAVE to lie. even if they end up claiming vt. they don't actually have a town role pm so they have to make one up. town don't have the same problem. they actually HAVE a town role pm so they don't need to make one up. does that sound overly simplistic? i don't think it is. i think people underestimate the utility of being able to remove yourself from the lynchpool with a good claim OR the power to ferret out fakeclaiming scum. when you lie as town, you nullify those. you add to the confusion that's ALREADY inherent in an UNINFORMED situation. you keep yourself firmly in the lynch pool because you look really sketchy and the rest of the town isn't going to be able to parse your exact motivation. but most destructively, you contribute to creating a site meta where it's OK for town to fakeclaim. and that's just... awful.

now, i thought of a few counterarguments that people will undoubtedly pull out:

"i fakeclaim all the time. then whoever calls me on fakeclaiming must be scum so i vote them."

yeah, that's wonderful.

please stay away from me.

"but this one time i fakeclaimed as town on this super dooper cool awesome gambit. i totally rocked the game and won after i got finished wrestling a bear and sticking a sparkler up my ass at the same time."

ok... first off, i really don't believe you OR i don't care enough to actually read the troll game you're going to link me to and tell you why you either lucked out or didn't really help town win.
second, i don't give two shits about whatever isolated incident you want to brag about. i've been here a while and here's how i've seen fakeclaiming go: crap, stinky crap stew, cauldron full of boiling feces

you know what the common thread of all those are? they're well intentioned gambits trying to do something heroic and they did a LOT of damage. to town.

"but i have to claim X role in order to draw the nightkill or avoid the nightkill..."

let me stop you right there.

your second guessing who scum are going to nk is no way to do things, because ultimately it's impossible to reliably "draw" or "avoid" the nightkill. that's because the scum kill is based on a confluence of SO many factors... pr's, reads, leadership, hell sometimes i see scum kill people they just flat out don't like.

just do your best while you're still alive and afterwards you can hold your head up high knowing you did your best.

"but...but...but i HAVE to fakeclaim because otherwise those other idiots are going to lose the game..."

...and we arrive at what i think is the true center of why town fakeclaim. there's always at least a little bit of an component of narcissism in fakeclaiming town. the underlying philosophy is: you can't tell the rest of the town the truth because those other morons who are beneath you can't be trusted with the truth and you're their only true savior.

and my answer is: get over yourself.

mafia is a team game. as either alignment, you HAVE to rely on your teammates. this is true ESPECIALLY as town. you're not the lone badass that's going to singlehandedly win the game. that doesn't even exist. 99.999% of town wins are through TEAM effort and there's nothing that disrupts that more than misinformation. scum already supply enough of that, you don't need to help them.

tl:dr
don't fakeclaiming as town.

for realz.

[mastina]

Town mastina would recognize that we're in MELo & not be trying to push an elongation, here.

If you think I give a fuck about losing a game when I'm mad, you've got another thing coming to you.

My principles are more valuable to me than any individual game's outcomes ever could be.

And when someone fucking lies about their role to guilty a town player (especially when said town player is a strong townread especially when said town player is a strong PR especially when it fucks the towns plans over and especially when it puts the game in mylo)?

I genuinely don't care about the outcome of the game.

I only care about punishing the player who did the forbidden thing.

Do NOT fucking fakeclaim guilties unless you are scum.
I will NEVER let a player live after they fake a guilty on town. EVER.

Even if eliminating them causes the town to lose. I genuinely, legitimately, just don't care if the town loses a game due to me enforcing the policy. The policy is something that NEEDS to be enforced to drive home why it is NOT. ALLOWED. FROM. TOWN.

[mastina]

Are we seriously postulating a lim over no lim in 6p with no confclears?

Titus a

mason

died.

A mason whose partner is

incredibly obvious

.

What do you think happens when we no-lim when a MASON died and thus revealed they have a masonbuddy???

That's right.

The other mason dies.

We. lim. today.

[mastina]

Tracking a jailkeeper that killed scum IS. NOT. TOWN.

It absolutely is--if the jailkeeper dies, it lets the town know who the jailkeeper jailkept.

Which, yaknow.

I would've pointed out had I been allowed to post yesterday.

But SOMEONE decided to fakeclaim a guilty and ramrod an elimination through before then.

And thus, they need to face the consequences of that:

Lim. All. Liars.

[mastina]

You're literally game throwing.

That would be

you

if you're town.

I

wasn't the one who claimed a guilty on an obvtown player that was a town power role.

That was you.

You play with fire? You get burned.

You claimed a guilty on town.

The guilty removed obvtown, who was a PR, that would've become a fucking COP, from the game, removed the chance for scum to be eliminated, allowed a mason to be nightkilled, and brought the game into mylo. All without allowing me a chance to post.

Nothing you can do or say can change that

you did those things

.

So I claim no responsibility for what you did and I will feel no guilt for voting you for it.

Lim all liars is level 0 bullshit. Killing me won't change my mind about that. It says more about anyone that leans on that excuse for killing someone that pinched their sphincter than it does the liar.

Yes, it DOES say something.

It says I hold principles that YOU violated.

I have ZERO tolerance for town claiming guilties on town. NONE.

If YOU thought I did, that's YOUR mistake. Because fuck no. I've had towns claim guilties on me when I was town before so I do NOT tolerate them.

You only need to have town players fakeclaim a guilty on you once in order to NEVER tolerate it EVER in your games again.

And thus.

Lim All Liars.

[mastina]

I played to my win condition. I achieved my mission.

So eliminating the most obvtown nonconftown player who was a town investigative power role was playing to your wincon?

I wonder which wincon that'd be?

You saying by this kill you playing on your wincon.

It's only truth if you are NOT town.

So I claim no responsibility for what you did

I played to my win condition. I achieved my mission.

You didn't achieve town wincon.
You actually pulled us in deep ass while we barely started to manage pull self out.

This.

Even mastina knows better than to try to call me scum at this point.

Oh you absolutely can be scum.

I am speaking to you as if you are town to let you know why your actions if town are utterly unacceptable, should never be tolerated, and deserve to be punished because actions have consequences and that policy is more important to enforce than a win in a single game.

But I don't know you to be town because your actions weren't gamethrowing if you were scum; they were playing to your wincon.

Your actions were gamethrowing if town but your wincon if scum.

Which means that you're a policy vote--either you flip scum because you pulled this gambit as scum and then we're down to only one scum alive, or you flip town because you gamethrew and we punish the lie.

There's a reasonable chance for you to be scum here anyway.

Titus insists that Dwlee is town here absolutely--I don't trust her there, but it reduces the odds of Dwlee being scum.
You insist that Enchant is town here absolutely--I kinda trust that one actually.
I am conftown.

So if it's not Dwlee per Titus, and it's not Enchant per you, who's that leave?

{Titus, Galron, House}.

So unless the scumteam is {Titus, Galron}, then between Titus's clear and your clear you would be scum.

I refuse to lose to a player who got the most obvtown slot in the game who was a TPR voted out. Because contrary to the narrative you're selling? Yes, you can be scum.

Yes, I am speaking to you assuming you are town. Because assuming you are town you need to learn why what you did as town is literally playing to the scum wincon. Because you CAN be scum because it IS playing to the scum wincon. If it wasn't playing to the scum wincon, there wouldn't be reason to vote you. But it WAS because you literally could not have advanced the scum wincon further than you did.

You killed the most obvtown player in the game who wasn't conftown.
You killed a town PR.
You killed an investigative.
You killed a role that with another scum elimination would've been elevated to COP levels, which would've forced the scum to nightkill them.
You killed a self-resolving slot.
You denied the town the chance to massclaim outside of mylo.
You denied me a chance to post all of yesterday.
You denied the town/scum a chance to spew themselves yesterday. For instance, after I defended Scorpious, there was at least a reasonable chance that I would be pushed yesterday since my masonbuddy was still alive. We could have garnered information from that. But you denied us that.
You caused my masonbuddy to be dead because of rushing through yesterday and giving the scum a free nightkill.

What in the above isn't pro-scum, House?

Because that's literally playing to every part of the scum wincon.

Which is why there's only two worlds.

Either you're gamethrowing town who needs to be taught why that gamethrowing is not acceptable.
Or you're scum.

And the evidence for you being scum IS there, no matter how much you may say otherwise.

[mastina]

I called shenanigans on Greeting because his claimed action made no sense.

You know what I call shenanigans on?

The idea that town would claim a guilty on a slot that was, prior to the fake guilty, the most obvtown slot in the game, when the scum would be forced to kill that player thanks to their claim, and in the process of that fakeclaim denied the town an entire day phase worth of good info and denied the town a massclaim and as a consequence led to the death of a mason?

That's shenanigans.

Gambits are fine. They are punished for reason. They also called Gambits for reason. High Risk, High Reward. You had High Risk, Low Reward even before flip so i don't see you doing this as town, unless you are idiot. You are not idiot.

From my perspective you played well, as scum.
Getting this elim was good.

If i let you get away with this, i will be idiot.
I am not Idiot.

This.

[mastina]

Does anyone disagree on where the thread is strategically?

Not to play my hand too hard but I as a mason do know more info than I've revealed. (I'm

not

just a mason. I have an additional role beyond that.)

Let's just say that I had very good reason to believe I would be dead before now.

He'd never kill mastina despite her being a Mason because she's actively gamethrowing (something something rule 10 something).

Speaking of me not being killed tho: I was an advocate for Dwlee being scum since D2.

I wanted Dwlee or Flea dead on D2. The town collectively decided on Flea over Dwlee.

House, why didn't you back me there if you think that Dwlee is scum?

I wanted Dwlee dead on D3. The town ignored me in favor of voting out Scorpious (which to be fair worked out as he was scum).

House, why didn't you back me there if you think that Dwlee is scum?

I made it clear I wanted Dwlee dead on D4.

House, why didn't you back me there if you think that Dwlee is scum?

I had Greeting as one of my strongest townreads.
Taly had Greeting as one of his strongest townreads.

Why did you push through an elimination that was a group consensus hard-townread?

You had your chance to push Dwlee, House. Back when I was pushing Dwlee.
I didn't get nightkilled in spite of pushing Dwlee.

So tell me, why wasn't I killed when I hard-scumread Dwlee the entire game and had been defending you as town the entire game?

You're trying to sell the narrative that I was scumreading you prior to today. But my scumread on you is brand new to today.

[mastina]

BTW I have more to say,
On CURRENT gamestate,
On the prior gamestate,
And what I think that the Scum's plan was,

All of which place House as a top scum candidate.

But I legit am entirely out of time, I've got work. So it'll have to either wait until I can phonepost, or until tonight.

[mastina]

Sorry, I have the time (well maybe) to post tonight but not the mindset to post; I'm v tired and v just...not in the mafia playing mindset. (I was wanting to at work, but work exhausted and drained me to the point where I'm not able to now.) Apologies.

UNVOTE: House
This is, explicitly, not because I want House to live.

I think that he has a high chance of being scum. (Remember also that he submitted as his scum roles three

ascetic

roles and we don't need a mafia roleblocker if Cheeky hid behind an ascetic scum House while House killed her.)
I think that both the past gamestate and current gamestate heavily supports him being scum.

But while I believe he is very very likely to be scum...

...I don't want the day to end yet regardless. Even if he's scum, I've got things to say which I wouldn't get to say if we went into night.
And obviously, if I'm wrong on him being scum (even though I think that he is), then I don't want him quickhammered yet. (I realize there was a desire to have what amounts to a form of hammertesting with me voting House and then Enchant/Galron/etc. as second vote and such, but while I was willing to risk that while I didn't have things to say, I'm not willing to risk it while I DO have things to say.)

I'll be re-placing the vote after I've done what I want to do.

I just can't do it tonight, apologies.

[mastina]

(Also I feel it's worth mentioning, I got my role, the one I submitted. I've been sorta working under the assumption that everyone who got a role, got what they submitted. So if House submitted Mafia Ascetic, and Cheeky visited House, then we no longer need a scum roleblock + kill on Cheeky, just a scum kill on Cheeky.)

[mastina]

(I'm not just a mason. I have an additional role beyond that.)

Triplicate? You can refuse to answer if you don't want or are confused.

I get your meaning, but no, not Triplicate. You're both right and wrong tho; you've got the two that I'm not.

[mastina]

You're only doing so now to save your ass.

Hey House, I'm dead serious when I say this:

You're saying the same shit to me that Firebringer and RadiantCowbells both said to me.

"I don't believe that you believe that."

That's what you're saying to me.

You're saying I don't believe what I am saying.

And you join the ranks of both Firebringer and RadiantCowbells (as a hint--that's a very bad thing to do as it means you're in very bad company) of being delusional and a toxic fuck.

Saying to someone "you don't actually believe that" is like saying to a trans person that they don't actually believe they're trans, or that an autistic person doesn't have autism, and similar.

It's a lesser offense than the above which are more extreme, but it illustrates why what you're saying is problematic as fuck.

Yes, I believe what I am saying.

I don't lie. I don't bullshit. I don't make shit up. I am incredibly transparent and my principles demand the truth. I may, in a calculated gambit, exaggerate my reads. I will say I have a stronger townread than I do, or say I have a stronger scumread than I do. But I never

lie

about a read. I may, after the exaggerated read gambit is revealed, have a read reversal. But that is in fact a read

reversal

, not a read reveal where I was lying and then reveal my real read.

If I didn't believe what I was saying, I wouldn't have said it.

I am addressing you as if you are town to let you know why what you are doing is

Not. Okay.

But everything you have done is just playing to your wincon if you are scum and there is a lot of evidence for you being scum.

Ever since D2, I have had the theory that you could be ascetic and CheekyTeeky died to a direct nightkill after having hid behind you.
After all:

TOWN

PREFERENCE:

mastina

House

Scorpious

Yume/Dwlee99

Greeting
Flea the Magician
CheekyTeeky
ɀefiend

NO ALIGNMENT PREFERENCE:

Taly

Titus
Galron

SCUM

PREFERENCE:

Enchant

MAFIA ROLES

POOL:

Informed Goon (Enchant)
Macho 1x Strongman (Enchant)
Mafia Rolecop (Enchant)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Rolestopper/Rolecop (House)

Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Hider/

Watcher

(House)

Ascetic Strongman (House)
Mafia Combined Rolecop, Loyal Neighborizer Loyal Doctor Traitor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Disloyal Universal Backup Encryptor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Personal Alien Mailman (Titus)
Mafia JOAT (Scorpious)
Mafia Loud Alien (Galron)
Mafia 2-shot Strongman (Galron)
Mafia Roleblocker (Yume/Dwlee99)
Mafia RoleCop (Yume/Dwlee99)
Mafia Neighbour (Yume/Dwlee99)

Remind me again House; what role was it you claimed to get Greeting eliminated?

Hard claim Combined

Watcher

/Voyeur

Submitted because I wanted to see who visited other players & what action they took on that player.

We know that CheekyTeeky had her action fail and that she was the nightkill that night due to no vig claim.

At least I won't be NK'd ^.^

This makes it clear she did not no-hide. What were Cheeky's scumreads?

Thank you for confirming my suspicions on house.

I can look into house anyway

. If we're going to change wagons I'd still prefer Scorpious.

{Scorpious, House, Greeting} seems warmer.

I can't decide who is more scummy between Taly and House. House kinda feels like his usual self apart from his entrance and early posts and Taly feels like he's trying to townblock too hard and he's more justifyish than usual in his push on Meg
I'm not super keen on them being scum together but I guess it's possible.

It seems an awful lot like CheekyTeeky was thinking you were scum, House, and possibly going to hide behind you!

And then, you said it yourself, House:

Wow. Did not see that coming.

The kill you saw coming; that you hit a mason you did not. (I'll get into this when I tackle the gamestate, which I'll be doing in a few posts from now.) You even admitted it:

No, the kill didn't surprise me. Masons AND a JK being in the game did, though.

The kill being the replacement is actually a very me!scum move, because I hate when fresh perspectives fuck with my well-crafted narrative.

I wonder who else shares that philosophy.

Who else

does

share that philosophy, House?

Titus? I don't think so.

Dwlee? I don't think so.

Enchant? Maybe, I don't know Enchant well enough.

Galron? Maybe, I don't know Galron well enough.

But that's two "maybes", when there's only one definite:

You.

You had the most incentive of anyone to kill the Taly slot here.

There was mounting suspicion on the Taly slot, and any threat Taly had from reads was gone with the Taly replace-out. The scum very very very clearly did not know that Taly was a mason because had they known Taly was a mason, they would've known I was a mason too as both of us were making it very obvious the whole game. There was mounting suspicion on me, and per my gamestate read (again more on that in a bit), it is incredibly likely that the scum's gameplan involved trying to push through an elimination on me.

Which they can't do with a mason flip.

Meaning that the scum didn't know that Taly was a mason, knew Taly would not be a threat readswise thanks to having replaced out, and that Taly was garnering more suspicion from the town over time.

So why, then, did the Taly slot die if the scum didn't know Taly was a mason, knew Taly wasn't a threat readswise, and that Taly's towncred was waning?

Well, killing a slot that is a fresh perspective seems like a fairly good reason, because my read on the gamestate is that the town as a collective whole was largely off-base on prior days. The slots with the most reason to fear that are the slots who were in the higher echelons of townreads in prior days--you included, House.

And that?

That's not going into you ramrodding the Greeting mislim through and my reasons for highlighting how pro-scum that was all still stand:

Greeting literally was softclaiming PR the entire game and was obvtown. (In the Greeting v House 1v1 I'd have always killed House 100%.)
Greeting was both
The most obvtown player in the game aside from the masons, and,
A claimed town PR, and probably our only investigative PR.
More than that, Greeting would've become a fucking COP if we had eliminated scum yesterday. If we eliminated scum yesterday there'd be only one scum left, meaning that Greeting generating results would be directly equivalent to a cop.
What does that mean? It means scum would be forced to kill Greeting, meaning that the town absolutely

should not

have eliminated Greeting.
But there's more.

I didn't get a chance to post

at all

yesterday thanks to the guilty claim.

We didn't get to do the massclaim we were supposed to do thanks to the guilty claim.

You caused the town to vote out the towniest player in the game, who was probably our only town investigative, who was literally going to become a cop and be scum's problem, prevented me from talking, prevented the town from completing massclaim, and prevented the town from eliminating scum.

House Lied, and the lie directly lead to the elimination of a slot that was literally the most obvtown nonmason slot in the game who was also a strong town investigative power role.

House is thus either scum, or town that furthered the scum win condition in the absolute most pro-scum way possible.

The guilty removed obvtown, who was a PR, that would've become a fucking COP, from the game, removed the chance for scum to be eliminated, allowed a mason to be nightkilled, and brought the game into mylo. All without allowing me a chance to post.

I played to my win condition. I achieved my mission.

So eliminating the most obvtown nonconftown player who was a town investigative power role was playing to your wincon?

I wonder which wincon that'd be?

You saying by this kill you playing on your wincon.

It's only truth if you are NOT town.

So I claim no responsibility for what you did

I played to my win condition. I achieved my mission.

You didn't achieve town wincon.
You actually pulled us in deep ass while we barely started to manage pull self out.

This.

Even mastina knows better than to try to call me scum at this point.

Oh you absolutely can be scum.

But I don't know you to be town because your actions weren't gamethrowing if you were scum; they were playing to your wincon.

Your actions were gamethrowing if town but your wincon if scum.

There's a reasonable chance for you to be scum here anyway.

Titus insists that Dwlee is town here absolutely--I don't trust her there, but it reduces the odds of Dwlee being scum.
You insist that Enchant is town here absolutely--I kinda trust that one actually.
I am conftown.

So if it's not Dwlee per Titus, and it's not Enchant per you, who's that leave?

{Titus, Galron, House}.

So unless the scumteam is {Titus, Galron}, then between Titus's clear and your clear you would be scum.

I refuse to lose to a player who got the most obvtown slot in the game who was a TPR voted out. Because contrary to the narrative you're selling? Yes, you can be scum.

Because assuming you are town you need to learn why what you did as town is literally playing to the scum wincon. Because you CAN be scum because it IS playing to the scum wincon. If it wasn't playing to the scum wincon, there wouldn't be reason to vote you. But it WAS because you literally could not have advanced the scum wincon further than you did.

You killed the most obvtown player in the game who wasn't conftown.
You killed a town PR.
You killed an investigative.
You killed a role that with another scum elimination would've been elevated to COP levels, which would've forced the scum to nightkill them.
You killed a self-resolving slot.
You denied the town the chance to massclaim outside of mylo.
You denied me a chance to post all of yesterday.
You denied the town/scum a chance to spew themselves yesterday. For instance, after I defended Scorpious, there was at least a reasonable chance that I would be pushed yesterday since my masonbuddy was still alive. We could have garnered information from that. But you denied us that.
You caused my masonbuddy to be dead because of rushing through yesterday and giving the scum a free nightkill.

What in the above isn't pro-scum, House?

Because that's literally playing to every part of the scum wincon.

And the evidence for you being scum IS there, no matter how much you may say otherwise.

I called shenanigans on Greeting because his claimed action made no sense.

You know what I call shenanigans on?

The idea that town would claim a guilty on a slot that was, prior to the fake guilty, the most obvtown slot in the game, when the scum would be forced to kill that player thanks to their claim, and in the process of that fakeclaim denied the town an entire day phase worth of good info and denied the town a massclaim and as a consequence led to the death of a mason?

That's shenanigans.

Gambits are fine. They are punished for reason. They also called Gambits for reason. High Risk, High Reward. You had High Risk, Low Reward even before flip so i don't see you doing this as town, unless you are idiot. You are not idiot.

From my perspective you played well, as scum.
Getting this elim was good.

If i let you get away with this, i will be idiot.
I am not Idiot.

This.

He'd never kill mastina despite her being a Mason because she's actively gamethrowing (something something rule 10 something).

Speaking of me not being killed tho: I was an advocate for Dwlee being scum since D2.

I wanted Dwlee or Flea dead on D2. The town collectively decided on Flea over Dwlee.

House, why didn't you back me there if you think that Dwlee is scum?

I wanted Dwlee dead on D3. The town ignored me in favor of voting out Scorpious (which to be fair worked out as he was scum).

House, why didn't you back me there if you think that Dwlee is scum?

I made it clear I wanted Dwlee dead on D4.

House, why didn't you back me there if you think that Dwlee is scum?

I had Greeting as one of my strongest townreads.
Taly had Greeting as one of his strongest townreads.

Why did you push through an elimination that was a group consensus hard-townread?

You had your chance to push Dwlee, House. Back when I was pushing Dwlee.
I didn't get nightkilled in spite of pushing Dwlee.

So tell me, why wasn't I killed when I hard-scumread Dwlee the entire game and had been defending you as town the entire game?

You're trying to sell the narrative that I was scumreading you prior to today. But my scumread on you is brand new to today.

Still think I'm making up the scumread on you, House?

Because this is pretty damn damning evidence when compiled all together.

Is it 100% slamdunk guaranteed confscum?

Well no. If it was then I wouldn't even be bothering to address you as town; I wouldn't have unvoted; I wouldn't have the need to explain things to you. My only task would be convincing the town that you are in fact scum.

Is it damning enough where you have a very high chance of being scum?

Why yes, it is. A very high chance that makes you a top scum candidate by a significant margin, actually.

[mastina]

For the record, at this stage with the claims and the knowledge that players got the roles they submitted if they got roles:

We can also do decent role speculation here.

There is a scum caused-role-to-fail on CheekyTeeky--it could not be a scum jailkeeper or a scum Alien; it could only be a scum roleblocker or another failure condition e.g. targeted when ascetic by CheekyTeeky.

Enchant cannot be the cause for CheekyTeeky's role failure.
Titus cannot be the cause for CheekyTeeky's role failure.
Galron cannot be the cause for CheekyTeeky's role failure.

The only players who can cause CheekyTeeky's role failure as scum are {House, Yume/Dwlee99}.

It's also fairly obvious the scum did not know that Taly/myself were masons. This gives a high chance of no rolecop. This is made more apparent by Scorpious having a Neapolitan. Neapolitan on the JOAT would be a bit redundant with a Rolecop.

It's also obvious scum don't have a full strongman given the lack of successful nightkills and that Scorpious had a Strongman on his JOAT.

So what mafia roles does that leave as possible?

Informed Goon (Enchant) (technically possible but unlikely thanks to Scorpious having Informed on his JOAT)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Hider/Watcher (House)
Mafia Combined Disloyal Universal Backup Encryptor (Titus)
Mafia JOAT (Scorpious)
Mafia Roleblocker (Yume/Dwlee99)

That's {House, Titus, Yume/Dwlee99} with technically Enchant but him as incredibly unlikely.

As it so happens, the only scumread there which is a prior gamestate read is Dwlee99.

Now, granted. This is off of mafia PRs. Any player not listed above could still be scum as a Goon. Galron could be a goon; Enchant could be a goon; Titus/House could be a goon; Dwlee could be a goon.

But given that we know CheekyTeeky's role failed, there's guaranteed scum in {House, Yume/Dwlee99}. One MUST be scum. (Both can be scum obv but one MUST be scum.)

[mastina]

I'm saying it's most likely Galron/Enchant.

My, my House, I thought you said you had the game solved when you said it was Galron/Dwlee99?

And for that matter, didn't you think you had it solved at the beginning of the day when calling me scum?

But wait, there's even more.

Fuck. I could be wrong on Titus. This is reminding me of Lemon Demon.

... Titus/Dwlee? Titus could have easily voted me back when my wagon had Enchant & mastina on it, but Dwlee wasn't around to hammer.

You've changed your solve again! (Yes you then change it back to Galron/Enchant again but I think my point here is clear enough from your posting trajectory.) Shocker.

It's

almost

like, actually, no, you didn't solve the game in any way shape or form today.

You can't claim credit for solving the game if you call out literally every single possible scumteam combo at least once and even ones that aren't. Because while the time you had the correct combo would technically mean you had it, the entire time you had every other incorrect combo would mean you did not in fact have it. If you spent 10% of the time on a correct solve but then 90% of the time on an incorrect solve, can't exactly say you had the solve, now, can you?

Well you can because players who like to claim in postgame that they had the solve after they did every possible combo tend to be that level of delusional, but my point should be clear enough here;

If you are town, no, taking the game to mylo the way you did was not in any way shape or form pro-town and was in every way shape and form pro-scum because you did not in fact blow the game wide open and reveal the scum to everyone. All you did was make it harder for the town to get the accurate solve.

Granted, I think the change in solve is actually scum from you, butstill.

(I'd also like to note that I lean against Enchant being scum here in general, but with an asterisk to note that it's not absolute.)

Btw, it's getting late and I'm being too slow to make my points, so my gamestate post might need to wait until either tomorrow morning (if I'm fast about it) or Thursday (given I can't post Wednesday Night, since reminder to the

MOD: V/LA for 48 hours; weekly thing from Wednesday to Thursday.

), but I'll do what I can.

Again, I don't want to cast my vote again until after the gamestate post, so not voting yet, but again, I vastly prefer a House vote here.

[mastina]

Titus cannot be the cause for CheekyTeeky's role failure.
Wait why

None of Titus's submitted picks allow for CheekyTeeky's role to fail and let scum kill her.

Plus, Alien would leave a Mailman message we've seen no evidence of, so...

[mastina]

(And I do think that I am very close to a precise solve, here.

With it REQUIRED that one of House/Dwlee is scum here, that means the scumteam combos are far more limited:
{Titus, Dwlee99}
{Titus, House}
{Enchant, Dwlee99}
{Enchant, House} (lolno, this is not bussing)
{Galron, Dwlee99}
{Galron, House} (this one could be tho)
{House, Dwlee99} (so could this one)

Those seven combos are the only ones possible. So it's just a matter of figuring out from other factors which are the most likely. Given the unlikelihood of Enchant/House, it's effectively only six combos. Which combined with gamestate read both past and present along with speculation of scum's plans leads to a far better honing in on things.)

[mastina]

Who is the scum team on my green flip?

Dwlee by necessity, leaving the only possibilities as:
{Dwlee, Enchant} (I doubt this as I think Enchant is town here)
{Dwlee, Titus}
{Dwlee, Galron} (this would mean the town consensus was correct on D3/4--until you derailed it, House, I should note. Because Dwlee and Galron were my top two elimination preferences on D3 and after D3 ended and going into N3 and going into D4. So again, you'd have nobody but yourself to blame for derailing the town from wagoning and eliminating scum because without your fakeclaim on Greeting, D4 ends in either a Dwlee or Galron elimination.)

[mastina]

Because otherwise roleblocker is Dwlee99/Titus/House.

Okay so I might've forgotten that Alien doesn't need to target CheekyTeeky directly in order to still roleblock her.

However, it should be noted:

The alien could not have targeted Scorpious as Scorpious actioned both N1/N2.

The alien could not have been, or targeted, Enchant.
The alien could not have been, or targeted, Galron.

This limits the alien to being Titus, but since she didn't target Enchant or Galron, it limits her targets to {House, Dwlee99}.

So what I said before is still correct.

No matter what, there MUST be one scum in {House, Dwlee99}.

Either House is Ascetic.
Or Dwlee99 is a roleblocker.
Or Titus is a scum alien who targeted one of House/Dwlee. (With CheekyTeeky having hid behind them--hint, this would be her hiding behind House.)

Those are the only three possibilities and in all of them, there's one scum in House/Dwlee.

So I'd like to reiterate, I think the possible combos are:
{Dwlee-roleblocker, Titus-anything}
{Titus-alien-or-anything, House goon-or-ascetic} (respectively; Titus isn't an alien with House as an ascetic, but Titus alien + House goon works; Titus any role + House ascetic works)
{Dwlee-roleblocker, Galron-goon}
{House-ascetic, Galron-goon}
{House-ascetic-or-goon, Dwlee-anything-or-roleblocker} (in this case at least one must be the blocking role on Cheeky but it could actually be both).

I'd also like to note:

If the scum had a roleblocker, where were their blocks on other nights? Why did they KILL zefiend rather than ROLEBLOCK him? Yes, zefiend was ascetic, but how could the scum have known zefiend was ascetic? The only way for them to deduce zefiend was ascetic given they clearly lack a rolecop (who would've gotten No Result anyway) is to have tried to have roleblock zefiend N2 and deducing what happened from that.

But if the scum don't have a roleblocker, well, then, suddenly: House becomes scum.

[mastina]

Also also I've said since D2 that scum doubling down on roleblocking AND killing CheekyTeeky was incredibly doubtful--which means the source of Cheeky being killed is most likely a direct kill and the source of Cheeky being roleblocked is indirect.

A la, House being ascetic.

[mastina]

mastina if I'm an investigative scum and you have actions on top of being Mason, how do you live to today?

Watcher can't catch a mason now can they?

Not unless the watcher watches who I target and I know for a fact that I've not had my action seen until N4 at least. (Obviously it's possible they know

today

, but prior to that I'm quite sure they haven't seen me.) And even if they did see who I target, they wouldn't have much of a chance to prioritize killing me. zefiend as a kill was mandatory N3. Scorpious's kill failed N2. They couldn't have known N1. The only time scum could've killed me even if they knew I was a PR was N4, but this is still evidence for you being scum, House:

You literally forced through an elimination on Greeting as a claimed PR.

What's to stop you, not knowing I'm a mason but knowing I am a TPR, from killing the fresh perspective and then trying to push through an elimination on me? You'd be blindsided by the mason (because you didn't know about it), but you wouldn't be blindsided by me being a PR because you can, and were planning on, pushing me prior to the mason revelation.

[mastina]

Like, i really forgot Cheeky could have target Zefieeawhatthis nick instead.

Could have?

Yes.

Actually did?

No.

Cheeky did not hide behind zefiend; her iso clearly shows as much.

Also I'm pretty sure that Enchant is elevated to just-town here from the brief 3-vote period.

Which I was already thinking anyway, but.

That limits the scum significantly since it means the only possible scum are {Titus, House, Dwlee99, Galron}.

The Galron wagon can also help narrow things down further.

But I do think that it's still House.

[mastina]

Titus:

Serious question; why are you clearing Dwlee for their Scorpious push but not Enchant?

I was doing some checking-iso-work and noticed that Enchant's push against Scorpious was just as numerous as Dwlee's.

[mastina]

At this stage, to me, the teams I see are:
{Titus, House}
{Titus, Dwlee99}
{House, Galron}
{House, Dwlee99}
{Dwlee99, Galron}

My isowork didn't show significant changes in reads from prior days to today, but it did show that both Galron and Dwlee were setting up for a mastina push today.

House's iso loosely suggests that it's less likely to be House + Galron, so that'd leave:
{Titus, House}
{Titus, Dwlee99}
{House, Dwlee99}
{Dwlee99, Galron}

Unless the scumteam is precisely {Dwlee, Galron},

Voting Galron is never the correct play today.

(And even then the better vote is Dwlee.)

So for me it boils down to which of the above are the least likely vs. most likely.

I actually don't think Galron is scum at all--it's possible with Dwlee (interactions leave it definitely possible), but I think that Galron and Enchant are both town. (I saw something in Galron's iso which made me remember why I think he's town.)

So that leaves {Titus, House}, {Titus, Dwlee}, and {House, Dwlee} as the possibilities.

All three are possible from their isos unfortunately, so it's basically a leap of faith.

There's one town in there and two scum.

VOTE: House
I think I still want to go here.

[mastina]

I suppose Titus figured out I was lying about it not being Triplicate since it was explicitly precisely Triplicate. (Being bulletproof.)

No redactions.