Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Mc Esther

[Dwlee99]

Yes of course

[Dwlee99]

It's really my only way to make it to endgame when a partner is caught

[Dwlee99]

I do it best

[Dwlee99]

But if we lim in beta aren't we guaranteed to hit at least one scum

[Dwlee99]

I wanna do the math but I'm mobile

[Dwlee99]

If I don't correctly read IV this game I should probably end up BoP'd

[Dwlee99]

IV do you forget I've been an active member in two of your scum games?

[Dwlee99]

IV do you forget I've been an active member in two of your scum games?

don’t you need to see a towngame before you can be more confident in recognizing my scumgame?

your confidence in reading me just from that seems a bit jarring

Have I not? But no

[Dwlee99]

The trick is that I'm always town

[Dwlee99]

That NS read is bad. Enforcing town optimal strategy hasn't been townie since 2005

[Dwlee99]

Anyway here's a math post:

If we lim in group beta chance of winning is:

1/3(1/6 + (5/6)(1/5) + (5/6)(4/5)(1/3)) [hit scum D1] + 1/3(1/5 + (4/5)(1/3)) [D2] + 1/3(1/3) [D3] =~ 45%

Alpha math is more complicated cause I can't tell if scum should shoot in alpha or beta if we lim in alpha

[Dwlee99]

I will say 45% EV is enormously town-sided though so I like that route unless more math shows alpha route is better

[Dwlee99]

(1/6) + (5/6)(1/4)(1/3 + 1/3) + (5/6)(3/4)(1/2)(1/3) =~ 41%

I want the beta route

[Dwlee99]

I already regret joining this game. I already don't like math, but the fallacies/qualitative points being presented are disgustingly horrendous. I'll tackle them next and then hit my qualitative points

Spoiler: Math

Group of 6 elim townwin scenarios

S*** = 1/6
TSS=(5/6*1/4*1/3)
TSTS=(5/6*1/4*2/3*1/2)
TTSS=(5/6*3/4*1/2*1/3)

Add them all up, 40.97% town win.

Group of 3 elim townwin scenarios

S*** = (1/3*0.556, shortcut via EV Project 6-1 w/ 1 innocent
TTSS=(2/3*1/2*1/3)
TSS=(2/3*1/2*1/5)
TSTS=(2/3*1/2*4/5*1/3)

Add them all up, 45.2% townwin

tl;dr: Notscience is right Bingle is wrong. Shooting first in Group of 6 yields 40.97% win, Group of 3 approximately 45.2%.

This was my math as well

[Dwlee99]

Kuriyama so obsessed w me rn

[Dwlee99]

are you going to do anything?

Voting scum is what I do best

[Dwlee99]

are you going to do anything?

Voting scum is what I do best

what do u do second best

vote town

[Dwlee99]

But 2nd is secretly actually 1st

[Dwlee99]

dwlee are u gonna hunt at all in group alpha today

Would it make you happier?

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: todoroki

[Dwlee99]

Still mathematically better to lim in small hood I think? Will do math later bye

[Dwlee99]

It's probably dwlee

Shut up WOLF

[Dwlee99]

STD rn awoo awoo awooooooo

[Dwlee99]

Not shut up in a mean way though in like a fun snarky way

[Dwlee99]

Doesn't knowing a scum for sure give us info?

[Dwlee99]

Well rn everyone is operating on assumption MC Esther is scum right

And I think that assumption also plays into people's reads of her interactions with people in the big group to solve

If we confirm the assumption it doesn't hurt our odds of hitting scum in the big group

If it actually is IV I think the entire game changes

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: dwlee that howling was pretty realistic

Rat man rat man rat man

[Dwlee99]

If it actually is IV I think the entire game changes

In what way bub.

- Norwee

In that everyone is wrong and needs to reevaluate a lot of things

[Dwlee99]

Common position: IV town

If consensus opinion is proven wrong then it questions other consensus opinions

[Dwlee99]

The confidence was in the main thread then

[Dwlee99]

Does it actually matter where the confidence was displayed if I read it and connected the dots

[Dwlee99]

To your timestamp stuff in the hood, which shouldn't even be in the hood in the first place:

Tue Jan 18, 2022 15:52:02

Again I do not find the first paragraph persuasive at all given Guardians. You played your heart out and did well but still fell to more experienced players, and it is not just Pooky you are afraid of.

VOTE: Todoroki

I really do not like what Esther has given either, I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what, but I feel confident that 391 is a borderline scumclaim.

Borderline scumclaim

I feel confident

[Dwlee99]

And I think that assumption also plays into people's reads of her interactions with people in the big group to solve

See this is the problem, MC Esther hasn't been interacting with the big hood. Their ISO is empty. All their content is based on small hood, small mind, thinking.

- Norwee

Okay but people have interacted with her and IV

[Dwlee99]

If it actually is IV I think the entire game changes

In what way bub.

- Norwee

In that everyone is wrong and needs to reevaluate a lot of things

Very helpful Einstein.

- Norwee

"If people are wrong, they need to consider that they are wrong"

Why are you town again Dwlee?

- Norwee

ALSO apparently it needed to be said because you're arguing AGAINST flipping small hood. If it was so obvious why didn't you think of it

[Dwlee99]

Better than being a dumbass

[Dwlee99]

Dwlee you are being really vague about how flipping in the small group helps us

If you can't tell us who would be scum based on what they flip now, how will that change tomorrow?

ISOs will still exist

[Dwlee99]

If I were scum one of the puppies or prism would be very dead right now

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: MC esther

I think she is simultaneously trying to pocket me and set me up to look like her partner if she gets flipped. Her read on me is arguably TMI cause I probably say vote in small group as scum anyway

[Dwlee99]

I feel decent about IV town

[Dwlee99]

I also wouldn't kill kuriyama though and your reason sounds more made up

[Dwlee99]

i didn't think it was a joke

Cause you're scum?

[Dwlee99]

dwlee, who do you think my buddy is? i dont think i can find a read implying an answer anywhere, aside from some maybe-joking(?) digs at std.

Dunn is scummier than STD but I haven't looked at associatives between y'all

[Dwlee99]

Actually dunn feels like he is very transparently going for lim me -> lim STD for the win

He literally said it

[Dwlee99]

I don't like that Dwlee is advocating to elim in the small hood for info but can't pinpoint what that info is, and won't try to do so.

lie

I don't like their fake looking analysis of their own kill choices:

I also wouldn't kill kuriyama though and your reason sounds more made up

If I were scum one of the puppies or prism would be very dead right now

As it seems pretty unfounded.

it's founded on me thinking I'd kill those people actually

I don't like this post:

Well rn everyone is operating on assumption MC Esther is scum right

And I think that assumption also plays into people's reads of her interactions with people in the big group to solve

If we confirm the assumption it doesn't hurt our odds of hitting scum in the big group

If it actually is IV I think the entire game changes

And how does the game change? (Also I disagree with that)

I explained this to norwee and then got called a smart ass for doing so

[Dwlee99]

In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral

(though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

VOTE: Dwlee

The bolded is weird though

[Dwlee99]

You would LOSE

[Dwlee99]

Why do you think I'm scum again? Just cause I was absent D1?

[Dwlee99]

In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral

(though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

VOTE: Dwlee

The bolded is weird though

To explain why using STD post

if it's not dwlee it's gotta be dunn

See this, it's like... oh well if it isn't dwlee then I think it's dunn

Dunn's isn't oh if it isn't dwlee it's STD, it's "STD looks worse"

Maybe this is nitpicky but it kind of betrays scum brain. It isn't about truth but appearances

[Dwlee99]

My point is your way is townie dunn scummy

[Dwlee99]

i think 6 is better. not confident in my read in the other group

How are you confident on me when your reason is that I didn't post enough D1?

[Dwlee99]

Y'all it's dunn can we not

[Dwlee99]

Like are you going to engage with what I said at all or just say me not posting too much d1 makes me scum when I'm p sure my posting dipped all across the site

[Dwlee99]

Is my partner mc esther or IV here

[Dwlee99]

Why can't it be both? Anyway was there anything i was supposed to engange with from you? Or was that aimed at someone else.
I kinda find you to be a dead fish all this game, so that's why i think you're the best shot here.

- Norwee

I think interactions with both slots would make it seem like I'm not their partner

[Dwlee99]

If mc esther is scum she's just hard TMIing me town. If IV is scum I setup BoP on myself on him and then want to get small hood info for ??? to implicate myself or?

[Dwlee99]

I think I've bussed more than this idg your point mc esther.

[Dwlee99]

there was a game I claimed a guilty on a scum buddy like lol

[Dwlee99]

Probably by convincing people to go dunn->std

[Dwlee99]

I actually now think I'd go six if IV was my partner and 3 if esther was my partner.

[Dwlee99]

wait you e-1'd me. bruh

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Dwlee99]

Explanation: mc esther scum should probably hammer me there but didn't

I think dunnstral is scum

[Dwlee99]

I think maybe IV should be flipped

[Dwlee99]

Or maybe esther has finally pocketed me

[Dwlee99]

Cool I took some time off this site and suddenly I go from prolly town to scum?

Granted this isn’t the best example of my obvtown game (you would know if it was one!) but i doubt this what my scumgame looks like. I dont double down on this. If dwlee wasn’t my partner I prolly just hammer them too so sure maybe I’m scum with dwlee in some weird world. Actually no because if we’re scum we do way more theatre bullshit/distancing etc and this isn’t a plist who is familiar with how we play as scum together. I probably don’t put NS in my hood but idk what my hood criteria is as scum so lmao.

Yea that's true. We'd be having so much fun lol

[Dwlee99]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=88294

Look at this game for a good laugh

[Dwlee99]

We have plenty of time to wait.

[Dwlee99]

Do you think iv is partnered with me @prism? From 1102

[Dwlee99]

Doesn't your theory imply IV is dunn's partner?

[Dwlee99]

if we must vote six (i.e., deadline), i only really want to vote dwlee (lmao). i'd vote std if he were the only viable wagon. dunn is my strongest townread after puppy and consensus-prism, idk if im quite at "would literally rather let a no-elim go through than vote", but that's the way im leaning rn.

from what i can tell though, people are flipping from six to three rather than vice-versa, so this is probably a moot point.

why though

[Dwlee99]

I forget

[Dwlee99]

Doesn't your theory imply IV is dunn's partner?

how so

Because if Dunn thinks that he told IV something, and your theory is he did it in the scum PT, then IV is in the scum PT.

[Dwlee99]

the only vaguely plausible thing about iv/dunn is that they were the two players willing to indulge in my prism scumread (before iv went back to "no he's 100% town fuck off lol"). this does not at all, to me, outweigh my belief that there was maf on the wagon, i think dunn's just wrong.

This isn't why they can't be partnered though

[Dwlee99]

What was wrong with my posting weary

[Dwlee99]

I did not like dwlee's posts on the last page.

I posted it for consideration but did not myself find the hammer argument decisive, because while under threat Esther has been on the upswing and a flip in 6 means she has a good chance of winning tomorrow. She also just can't afford it if her partner is Dragons or Dunnstral.

They have not at all tackled the IV side of the equation. Last we checked IV was still town.

Oh. My problem is that both esther and IV feel like town right now and idk what to do.

[Dwlee99]

The posts you took issues with weren't like... strong changes of opinion. It's just me being unsure.

[Dwlee99]

If the neighborhood mechanic didn't exist I'd think Dunnstral/STD was the team oof

[Dwlee99]

Prism, I really don't know why you're so set on me being scum for showing doubt about my reads especially when I don't think I make sense as partnered with either person in the other neighborhood.

[Dwlee99]

I'm so set on you being scum that I didn't hammer you yesterday, insisted on IV, and had Dunnstral as my top vote yesterday.

You're currently voting in 6 despite acknowledging 3 was better and I just went over why you were scummy to me, just presented why you are the most likely partner for IV, only to have you go "ok but i was unsure"

You said you'd only vote me in the six and that you're not even going to consider voting dunnstral who is my top scumread right now.

[Dwlee99]

Okay, sorry

[Dwlee99]

I have three days so you know I'll probably spend those three days overthinking it

[Dwlee99]

Okay so this post isn't going to do a lot of quoting or direct references and I hope that is okay, but I get a feeling there is a suspicious (this is only if IV or Esther have mentioned my d1 play but not dunn's, which I think is the case but it isn't important for the analysis) lack of interest in Dunnstral's day one play.

I understand my D1 was pretty empty. I didn't do much in the way of explicitly hunting. I voted Esther early cause I felt like she was scummy. I don't even remember why at this point and although I could probably figure it out if I looked back that isn't the point of this post. I then moved to Todoroki sheeping prism. I pretty much agreed with consensus and just went with the flow of the game because it felt like it was going well. I can understand why people don't like this.

I look at STD's and I see immediately he is actually giving reads and solving.

I look at Dunnstral's and... okay I lied I'm referencing. I'm doing a post-by-post-analysis of this.

38: Naked RVS vote. Null.

47: Asking why brighter puppy thought esther is scum in second group. This can be considered null until I show the pattern.

74: Here dunnstral asks why Todoroki would put hard to read players in the group of 3 not 6. Okay you might be seeing the pattern.

82: Asking Todoroki why they answered a certain way instead of the actual question.

108: We get the first actual thoughts from Dunn on someone's alignment: mine, by a vote. It's not accompanied by any reasoning other than thinking that we should eliminate in the 6 player hood.

129: Clarifying something someone said.

133: I don't even know why this quote was relevant and I don't think it matters if I find out.

187: Agreeing with mech.

290: Asking esther why todoroki is scum over IV.

566: Okay, first, note there's a huge jump in post number. Almost two days pass between these two posts (290 and 566), and this one comes AFTER todoroki is limmed. What is the commentary? That Todoroki was a bad wagon. I feel like it is super convenient for Dunn to claim this after the wagon had happened and without commenting on it or his read on Todoroki at all while it was happening. Oops, the wagon just happened?

Now after the wagon is hammered Dunnstral begins posting a lot consecutively.

576: Not going to vote small hood tomorrow.

581: Response to 580 saying he always posts at this time.

590: Asking Todoroki why they think it's prism.

591: Again saying won't kill in small hood.

Okay that's Dunnstral's entire D1 ISO.

What are my takeaways?

First, Dunnstral is asking a lot of questions but is not doing anything with the answers to the questions. I think he's doing this to keep up appearances of activity but without putting in thought to the game. You could probably say the same for me about my mech and I ask IV something about his remembering us playing together in the past as buddies, but my posts aren't geared towards appearances like I think dunn's are.

Second, the pop-in after Todoroki was hammered is just atrocious. You don't get to be off wagon and seemingly townread Todoroki (given unvote from Todoroki to vote me and calling it a bad wagon), sit by while it forms and prism goes balls to the walls posting about it, and then come in only after it's actually gone through and say it was bad. If it was bad, why was nothing said in the 2 days between 290 and 566?

Now I do want to clarify, this is NOT a post saying we have to lim dunn first. I actually have found something that makes me think it is IV while I was just reading around.

Prism you should announce E1 if you’re going to do it, that is not a good look for you

Imagine if Esther is scum here and just lolhammers

This post right here is just slimy. I also don't even see why "what if esther quickhammers" would be a concern town!iv actually thinks of in that moment.

[Dwlee99]

What if some day or night a demon were to steal after you into your loneliest loneliness, and say to you, "This life as you now live it and have lived it, you will have to live once more and innumerable times more; and there will be nothing new in it, but every pain and every joy and every thought and sigh and everything unutterably small or great in your life will have to return to you, all in the same succession and sequence [...]

Would you not throw yourself down and gnash your teeth and curse the demon who spoke thus? Or have you once experienced a tremendous moment when you would have answered him: "You are a god and never have I heard anything more divine!"

Another day in the MafiaScum.net trenches. Fight from it, run from it, disown it, dread it, still it comes.

Spoiler: not game related philosophy talk

I absolutely adore the idea of eternal recurrence and the idea of

amor fati

, love of one's fate, is super inspiring to me as a way to think about living life.

[Dwlee99]

I feel like IV would be way more present and use slimy arguments if he’s scum Prism.

What did you think of [post]537[post]?

I feel like it's slimy

[Dwlee99]

537

[Dwlee99]

half tempted to just vote dunnstral and build brighter a statue if it flips scum

i'm not at that point yet

but i am close

Can I get a mini statue if this happens because I made a post with over 600 words in it?

[Dwlee99]

Town or scum the onus is squarely on dwlee here. Either way they go I would like to hear why. I will check in to avoid deadlock but I want my life back and I'm stuck in a holding position atm.

I understand. I plan to look through esther and IV at some point tonight or tomorrow.

[Dwlee99]

does anyone else think there's even a slight chance that prism could be scum?

No

[Dwlee99]

If prism is scum why even bother doing so much of what they've done

[Dwlee99]

Ah fuck there's a day on deadline. Analysis coming tonight

[Dwlee99]

Why am I even being voted right now

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Dwlee

You see I'm gonna post analysis soon so you put me to E-1? What is this?

[Dwlee99]

Was I supposed to pull an enchant and just hammer IV? What did y'all want me to do when he was E-1...?

Pedit: Yea why would I say I'm going to tonight if I wasn't planning to

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Dwlee

You see I'm gonna post analysis soon so you put me to E-1? What is this?

why are you so upset about this but you called my callout of prism’s E1 slimy

like comparatively I don’t think STDs E1 is that unreasonable given deadline proximity. Prisms E1 we still had like 6+ days left I think

Cause I have omgus

[Dwlee99]

Prism what are you looking for out of me rn. Are you open to having your mind changed on IV/Esther if I come to a different conclusion than you

[Dwlee99]

You make me want to not even read these ISOs lmao

[Dwlee99]

Dunnstral do you think my analysis of you is:
1.) Bad
2.) Bad and scummy
3.) Good but wrong
4.) Good but wrong and scummy
5.) Good and right (you probably won't choose this one)
6.) Bad and right (I do this one a lot probably)
7.) Other

[Dwlee99]

Bad and scummy

You called me scum in response to my read on you, with no thoughts before that

I'm talking about 1168 my dude

[Dwlee99]

Also wait that's literally just false. I kinda assumed it was true at first cause why lie and also I know I OMGUS BUT I don't think I even talked about you or mention you at all until today, and if it was just in response to your read on me then shat would even differentiate you and STD to me right now

[Dwlee99]

Then what, not shat lol

[Dwlee99]

dwlee, who do you think my buddy is? i dont think i can find a read implying an answer anywhere, aside from some maybe-joking(?) digs at std.

Dunn is scummier than STD but I haven't looked at associatives between y'all

Actually dunn feels like he is very transparently going for lim me -> lim STD for the win

He literally said it

In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral

(though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

VOTE: Dwlee

The bolded is weird though

In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral

(though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

VOTE: Dwlee

The bolded is weird though

To explain why using STD post

if it's not dwlee it's gotta be dunn

See this, it's like... oh well if it isn't dwlee then I think it's dunn

Dunn's isn't oh if it isn't dwlee it's STD, it's "STD looks worse"

Maybe this is nitpicky but it kind of betrays scum brain. It isn't about truth but appearances

My point is your way is townie dunn scummy

I also had ALL this before I even made 1168

[Dwlee99]

I post at similar times every day, shading the timing of my pop-in is easily verifiable nonsense.

So your case is "Dunnstral is asking a lot of questions but is not doing anything with the answers to the questions."

Most of which are in the first 4 pages, or after the elimination and aimed towards the dying player

Yes, that's a bad case.

Yea except I mentioned very explicitly there was a day you didn't post at all which you've conveniently ignored here

[Dwlee99]

I am not of the belief that a hidden alt would reveal themselves right away in the scum pt

I've been liking mc esther's posts today and lean towards IV being scum

In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral (though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

VOTE: Dwlee

My name appears in Dwlee's iso 46 times

Before I made the string of posts above, my name appeared in Dwlee's iso 1 time.

The second time it appears is the next post Dwlee makes after the above, and it's to call me scum

How many times did I mention anyone day one...

[Dwlee99]

Dwlee you are being really vague about how flipping in the small group helps us

If you can't tell us who would be scum based on what they flip now, how will that change tomorrow?

ISOs will still exist

dwlee, who do you think my buddy is? i dont think i can find a read implying an answer anywhere, aside from some maybe-joking(?) digs at std.

Dunn is scummier than STD but I haven't looked at associatives between y'all

Actually dunn feels like he is very transparently going for lim me -> lim STD for the win

He literally said it

Here is their progression

And like yea I townread prism and puppy where else would I be looking? Like my progression is as simple as "Poe on this neighborhood" but you're making it out to be some crazy unreasonable thing

[Dwlee99]

Okay, first, note there's a huge jump in post number.

Almost two days pass between these two posts (290 and 566)

, and this one comes AFTER todoroki is limmed. What is the commentary? That Todoroki was a bad wagon. I feel like it is super convenient for Dunn to claim this after the wagon had happened and without commenting on it or his read on Todoroki at all while it was happening. Oops, the wagon just happened?

See bolded, i didn't say anything about post time

[Dwlee99]

i cannot see any reason to flip dunnstral before flipping three-group, even if your opinion is generally in favour of eliminating within six. why would you not want to check that association before committing to the read? ik prism and std dont really believe the assoc is that strong, but theyre not the ones voting him. puppy does, so their vote is simply misplaced according to their own beliefs (like, if im maf over iv, and dunn is maf over everyone else in his group, then you very obviously start by flipping the player whose flip potentially clears the other); though i'll admit im not sure dwlee ever weighed in on this.

I think limming in three is better but I feel more strongly on my Dunn scumread than either of y'all.

[Dwlee99]

How many times did I mention anyone day one...

You just brought up your case which was about me on day 1...

Second, the pop-in after Todoroki was hammered is just atrocious.

This for post time. I started posting at the same time I do most days.

But the wagon was going on for multiple days at that point :monocle:

How many times did I mention anyone day one...

You just brought up your case which was about me on day 1...

What does this have to do with literally anything? I made that case day 2 my dude

[Dwlee99]

i cannot see any reason to flip dunnstral before flipping three-group

on a not-really-related note: dwlee seems hella survivalistic here, it feels like theyre just chasing whatever wagon isnt them -- theyve been open to voting both me and iv, and now things are turning on dunn, seem really set on dunn.

This is garbage shade

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: mc Esther
I made my decision in three, prism. Such opportunistic nonsense to try to push in six imo. That is borderline scum claim

[Dwlee99]

Oh nooo Dwlee wasn't dead set in their reads in three how HORRID

And yes I'm opportunistically pushing Dunn when *checks notes* I did it before it was cool

[Dwlee99]

Anyway that's enough of this game

Cya tomorrow y'all

[Dwlee99]

Stop baiting me to post I want to watch tennis

Tyvm

[Dwlee99]

I really don't want to switch to IV here

[Dwlee99]

Where is Esther response to my 1275 sequence like...

[Dwlee99]

If this flips scum ty for doing it for me because I really wanted esther dead

If this flips town why no listen to me

[Dwlee99]

Why me and not Dunn

[Dwlee99]

I feel like the plan may have been vote IV early to make me/you think Dunn/IV impossible, which then means we prefer voting Esther, so then dunn looks good we look bad and then badaboom badabing we lose.

[Dwlee99]

Associatives should not be taken as clearing imo, and your play is just townier than Dunn's, so we should kill Dunn.

[Dwlee99]

And really Dunn's entire push was actually to lim in 5, not in the 2, so it makes sense for him to push in his buddy in the two if he can get me limmed in the 5 first (which almost happened)

[Dwlee99]

or we could lim both you and dunn and probably win

I mean fmpov this is Dunn then you so you see why I'd prefer to vote Dunn first.

[Dwlee99]

This setup incentivizes bussing so much that really you'd wonder why I did no bussing if I were scum (except when I pointed out IV being slimy only to get hyperfocused back onto Esther)

[Dwlee99]

Also 1107 into

Doesn't your theory imply IV is dunn's partner?

[Dwlee99]

dunn feels more town than you but i've been really wrong most of this game so i wanna hear some other opinions

I thought you said Dunn has done nothing

[Dwlee99]

It actually does help — firebringer's thing about you thinking you told IV something when you hadn't in thread seems even more legit w/ IV flipping scum.

[Dwlee99]

I think Dunnstral's fixation on me saying that IV's flip will give us info indicates he's scum but I can't articulate why it makes me think that

It's like he wants the cred for voting there but wants to shade me?

I wanted to vote in the 3 because 1.) Better odds of winning 2.) Confirmed scum flip going into ELO. This fluctuated depending on my read confidence but I don't see how you can spin me saying that IV flipping scum would be a big deal as scummy

[Dwlee99]

Dwlee can you actually track through how your read on IV progressed over time?

You put BoP on yourself to start, called him town, and then flipped because of esther not hammering something. I've just got whataboutism and a nebulous "We'd act different" in return every time I have brought this up.

I don't think what Dunnstral points out is the critical point for me. It's just a broad statement of the game that didn't have too much thought behind it (otherwise you would have gone indepth). Yeah, the game literally changes if a player flips scum, but what was your the cognition behind the idea there?

My read on IV was like "okay he seems townie" and then kinda just vibing there. And then I did that big wall, found the slimy post, had an oh shit moment, but then promptly got distracted by a shiny esther.

Yea I think we'd act differently. Compare how we played together in the game I linked earlier and how we interacted here. Yea we could have switched it up specifically for this argument cause WIFOM etc. etc. but also it should give you pause to think this is how I'd act with a buddy.

My cognition was that the entire game seemed to agree that Esther was scum. Puppies was preflipping off of it. Etc. And I was thinking hey, we shouldn't preflip like this because if we confirm the preflip it doesn't hurt our odds of winning, so we should try to confirm the preflip instead of just using it.

[Dwlee99]

Kuriyama townread myself and IV and scumread Dwlee. They died night 1.

This is how it feels to setup huh

[Dwlee99]

There was this game I once played as scum where I night killed people that townread me + scumread another like 3 or 4 nights in a row.

And then in ELO the person votes me and I'm like "look at what every person who night killed said" and won

Good times

[Dwlee99]

'I misremembered then

[Dwlee99]

Puppies was talking about associatives a bunch though

[Dwlee99]

Prism what do you think of me minus the associatives

[Dwlee99]

Puppies was talking about associatives a bunch though

Not in a concrete way, but in a "I want to generate associatives" way

[Dwlee99]

I thought having associative data for flipping in 5 made sense especially because there's still implicit team solving

Like ugh I just remember my brain thinking "preflip can be confirmed to make better choice in five"

[Dwlee99]

More evidence to support my theory

[Dwlee99]

Dunn you are just soooo logical rn

Where's the fire

Do you BELIEVE
In your HEART
That I am SCUM

Or

Are you forced to pretend
Hiding behind a veneer of logic

[Dwlee99]

Okay prism I will try to do less reference without quote

Cause I know I do a lot of talking about thing without putting link to thing

[Dwlee99]

"Minus the associatives" is also a big ???, given again your previous stance on associative and my own.

What about this game is supposed to be unfakable? Your reads have been shallow one liners minus the one wall I pried out of you on Dunnstral. Am I supposed to be tonereading you and seeing that you are town in your heart of hearts just like everyone told me to do with esther?

Associatives are one piece of the puzzle

Someone can be very wrong and still be obviously town through some other aspect

Now I'm not saying I'm obviously town cause it's not obvious but I am saying that I am townier than Dunnstral at least

Because Dunnstral's only saving grace here is that he sat on IV for a while without actually doing any pushing. Like man's just voted, hopped on and off me a couple times, and now that means he is less likely to be scum because he sat his vote on the scum while seeming to hope it flips to me

[Dwlee99]

Like urgh where even IS the Dunnstral progression on IV

You can see me grappling with posts yesterday trying to figure stuff out and y'know reacting and taking in the new info

Dunn is like oh IV is scum but y'know could be mc esther 649

[Dwlee99]

Why'd you cut out the posts where I get mad at Esther

[Dwlee99]

i cannot see any reason to flip dunnstral before flipping three-group, even if your opinion is generally in favour of eliminating within six. why would you not want to check that association before committing to the read? ik prism and std dont really believe the assoc is that strong, but theyre not the ones voting him. puppy does, so their vote is simply misplaced according to their own beliefs (like, if im maf over iv, and dunn is maf over everyone else in his group, then you very obviously start by flipping the player whose flip potentially clears the other); though i'll admit im not sure dwlee ever weighed in on this.

I think limming in three is better but I feel more strongly on my Dunn scumread than either of y'all.

i cannot see any reason to flip dunnstral before flipping three-group

on a not-really-related note: dwlee seems hella survivalistic here, it feels like theyre just chasing whatever wagon isnt them -- theyve been open to voting both me and iv, and now things are turning on dunn, seem really set on dunn.

This is garbage shade

VOTE: mc Esther
I made my decision in three, prism. Such opportunistic nonsense to try to push in six imo. That is borderline scum claim

Oh nooo Dwlee wasn't dead set in their reads in three how HORRID

And yes I'm opportunistically pushing Dunn when *checks notes* I did it before it was cool

Yea here's an actual y'know reaction and showing I am ~on the hunt~ for the info

There's posts before that where I'm like "oh brain short circuit cause iv and esther feel town ???" And then I almost get it cause I have the quote of the slimy post from IV and then I'm like wow bad Esther post

[Dwlee99]

Why'd you cut out the posts where I get mad at Esther

I'm not sure what you are referring to. Quote it?

I'm being TROLLED

[Dwlee99]

Reference guide
Brain short circuit cause both feel town 1133, 1135
Slimy post quote 1168
Bad esther post 1273

[Dwlee99]

Idk I think the addy is worn off

I'll type some shit tomorrow and see if anyone cares

[Dwlee99]

Can you really say me stalling is scum indicative

[Dwlee99]

Can we just do dunn

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: dunnstral

Can someone actually explain why they think I'm scum without "d1 dwlee didn't do enough" and "dwlee pushed esther not IV"

Like I can understand thinking I'm not particularly townie

but why do people think I'm scum??

[Dwlee99]

if the game continues everyone should probably re-evaluate everyone else

Prism and I are the only two that would actually do this

[Dwlee99]

Wouldn't IV actually care to remember how he read me if we were buddies?

[Dwlee99]

It's continuing

cya postgame smh

[Dwlee99]

Wtf happened between now and may that I'm constantly mislimmed now ffs

[Dwlee99]

Prism I hope they don't night kill you so you have to spend the next 2 weeks thinking about how much simpler this would be if you didn't decide to yolo kill me when there's not even a god damn case on me

[Dwlee99]

Where'd you go prism, didn't think you'd leave so soon after hammering me

[Dwlee99]

No because now I have to wait and suffer for 2 weeks seeing if I was right on STD being town

[Dwlee99]

I appreciate the effort you put in reading random shit of mine but there seriously was not a case on me. There was none. This was pure random yolo

[Dwlee99]

Oh uh IV changed his read on you so you're scum

great logic there

[Dwlee99]

Dude I'm HAMMERED

I AM TOWN

I am not cruel enough to troll Prism posthammer like this even if it'd be mildly humorous.

[Dwlee99]

I'm just pissed cause I keep getting mislimmed and turns out mafia is less fun when you're the one getting yeeted

Not specifically towards you prism ><

[Dwlee99]

I shouldn't have posted at all, made an ass out of myself

good luck y'all cya

[Dwlee99]

If I was gonna troll I wouldn't make myself look like a meanie doing it

[Dwlee99]

Well played prism. Kinda sad I didn't get to be in ELO, would have been a good time.