Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Prism]

Pav can you post the neighbor groups since they're public info?

I'll be out hiking all day but will try to evaluate shit later

Don't know how other games played this but I expect it to be shoot in 3 down the line, 3 way at worst is fine and extra elims are a bonus.

[Prism]

Very tired. Very sure that shooting in Group of 3 is optimal but will do the math tomorrow, sometimes mechanics can be counterintuitive and surprising. Intuitively, note that scum has to shoot an unclear after a wrong elim regardless of what group we pick, and eliminating correctly in group of 3 is rewarded with 1/2 elims, not just 1/2 clears. Worst case scenario also obviously better going down the line in 3.

Will substantively read in morning, not going to YOLO read right now.

Thinking while hiking I decided not to speculate on groups until we actually get a scumflip. Todoroki was a horrible choice to put in if they are town though.

[Prism]

I'm reading again and people calling the groups a million names and trying to assign an arbitrary one is tilting me. Brighter clearly mixes up their own nomenclature at one point and it's a giant headache to sort through.

Use the actual numbers (Eg. Group 3/Group 6, 3hood 6hood), it doesn't add length and is unambiguous.

[Prism]

I already regret joining this game. I already don't like math, but the fallacies/qualitative points being presented are disgustingly horrendous. I'll tackle them next and then hit my qualitative points

Spoiler: Math

Group of 6 elim townwin scenarios

S*** = 1/6
TSS=(5/6*1/4*1/3)
TSTS=(5/6*1/4*2/3*1/2)
TTSS=(5/6*3/4*1/2*1/3)

Add them all up, 40.97% town win.

Group of 3 elim townwin scenarios

S*** = (1/3*0.556, shortcut via EV Project 6-1 w/ 1 innocent
TTSS=(2/3*1/2*1/3)
TSS=(2/3*1/2*1/5)
TSTS=(2/3*1/2*4/5*1/3)

Add them all up, 45.2% townwin

tl;dr: Notscience is right Bingle is wrong. Shooting first in Group of 6 yields 40.97% win, Group of 3 approximately 45.2%.

[Prism]

This is absolutely the fastest I have ever wanted to selfvote and get out of a game. Record time.

[Prism]

Absolutely feel free to elaborate on that. Perhaps you could make use of your games with me in the process.

[Prism]

I'm going to clearly state my feelings. You are welcome not to share them.

I do not like math. I despise it. Simultaneously, I am very insistent on following the correct strategy and will do so unashamedly.

[Prism]

And anyone is welcome to lean into tilting me as scum, to be clear. I do not mind.

[Prism]

I am going to get there.

but the fallacies/qualitative points being presented are disgustingly horrendous. I'll tackle them next and then hit my qualitative points

This was poor wording choice because it used "qualitative" in two different sense. The first was qualitative points on strategy. The second was qualitative points on play/players.

[Prism]

If you think it's scum indicative for me to tilt off of bad arguments/play go meta me. I'll listen to the moralizing another time, save it.

[Prism]

What a shame, because if you thought you were doing a good turn you are absolutely wrong and telling someone they're upset over nothing, regardless of the truth value of the statement, is a time-tested way to tilt them off the face of the fucking earth.

[Prism]

I'm going to circle back after I finish what I'm working on.

[Prism]

Honestly, no, let's skip to the end and then I'm going to go for a walk. This is going to be split up by points/slots.

There were several categories of mechanical/qualitative points presented. I could spend eons on Brighter's, but the one that struck me as particularly disconcerting was 36:

I think beta eliminating looks appealing on surface because of higher initial odds, but actually is a LIE once u really think about it and the chances of us messing up and then not even really get to enjoy perks of having say 2 confirmed townies.

LETS GO LONG BOIS AND GIRLS

The issue with this to me was that Firebringer cited the chance of "messing up" and losing out on perks/elims is cited only as a real issue for the voting in 3, but voting in the 6 was obviously broken townsided autowin. Understanding and pushing probability in one but not the other was very striking to me. I'm going to defer on the interactions with me, the math point I saw coming from a mile away and the fact that it was from Firebringer did not help. That said, I saw it coming.

My major hangups with the slot are 36 and the fact that Firebringer is actually pushing content forward instead of just shitposting. I don't think that's fair of me, because that's more in line with my own preference for play and it's just the mechanical points+fallacies that I hate, but the name of the game is what Firebringer does as scum not whether I approve of a playstyle shift.

[Prism]

But, there are other factors. Killing scum day 1 in the big hood wins the game, so scum can never bus into the big hood. But they can bus into the small hood. Meaning, if we are killing in the small hood day 1, the information we gain from associatives is not as good.

Also, if we kill into the small hood, and hit scum day 1, then the scum that is left gets to do two no info kills in a row. So, the literal best case scenario for killing in the small hood is a 1v5 mountainous game where the scum team does not kill anyone until the night before elo. (this is how my last game played out.)

Vs best case scenario of killing in the big hood - which is an auto win. And even if we miss in the big hood, night kills and associatives are stronger.

So, math wise, killing in the small hood is a +4% EV when shot at random, but shooting in the big hood results in better information to solve with, meaning we will not be shooting at random.

This point isn't the worst but I think you dismiss the value of interactions in 3 pool-lim too much. The scum in the 6 is

greatly

disincentivized from bussing, because that is two more elims to dodge, and bussing is not so simple either: There will be a scum nightkill on an unclear N3.

I have seen other towns fall asleep at the wheel after a scumflip Day 1...but none of my games have gone that way, and I suspect this table will be no different even were I completely absent. There are a few configurations where we wind up with paint drying in 3 way but not many.

I also do not think I gave nothing in my first two posts, and I am surprised that Lukewarm in particular has not speculated on where he was put.

[Prism]

Todoroki was a horrible choice to put in if they are town though.

?

You don't want difficult to vote people in the group of 3

unless

you're intentionally sandbagging it. Looking at the pairings, I thought all 3 are difficult to vote out as town, and perhaps that was intentional as opposed to some obvious juxtaposition, but likely they were thinking something else entirely.

Todoroki in particular has two different players that are generally easy to read, though there has been talk of notscience having "graduated". Not many people saw Guardians where Lukewarm improved rapidly. I was surprised to see Firebringer call notscience often misread, which I suspect he believes even in a scumworld, which speaks to the subjectivity of experience.

The only time I seriously considered eliminating in the group of 6 during my hike was wondering whether the group of 3 would be effectively self-resolving with time.

[Prism]

Focusing on the three, my current vote is esther. IV I feel I now have some idea how to read and think posts like 170 are very difficult for him to fake. 9:12 he really struggled to give reads like this off the cuff without making them overly convoluted, and the ones that did come were with a high degree of intentionality and thought. Wouldn't shock me if he's scum but yeah.

Todoroki is null for now. I am confident I still have, for the moment, Todoroki's number, and it is more of a matter of time for when I catch them than a question of if. There was one game I struggled to see notscience as town but even spectating I have always found it trivial. No one would be happier than me to be proven wrong.

Esther I think had a few issues. This sequence I felt the same as Kuriyama and thought the process transparently fake:

my gut caught this too, but i think it's lying to me. i just dont really see why scum would post it.

to try to get townread?

i dont think anyone's gonna townread firebringer for theoryposting, and i dont think firebringer expects to be townread for it.

This is tough to pin down exactly why it pinged me, but an easy logical criticism is that "don't see why scum would post it" and "wouldn't [explicitly] expect to be townread for it" is a big gulf. Fundamentally, "i just don't really see why scum would post it." is just a really low that I think is in the same dismissive family as Cabd's response to me in Holiday Dance.

"If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p."

I'm going to combine a strategy critique here with a criticism of the slot. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER hit 5 way ELO is the key counterpoint, and the clear is not nearly enough to justify going out of your way to seek the scenario (20->25% EV in 5 way, probably more w/ kingmaker mech, countered by better odds+getting a clear in 7p instead)

And I absolutely think she should know better.

VOTE: mc esther

[Prism]

i probably ended up in that group on those grounds ("nobody knows me" is pretty similar to "hard to read" imo).

This isn't relevant to my vote on you-though I do believe you put yourself in the 3 over the 6-but I want to note that this isn't the best assumption that scum did not research you given they had the full 48 hours.

While I am unusually neurotic with these things, I would be shocked if neither head of Todoroki researched it as scum, and it is completely possible that they skimmed your games for a strength gauge without any idea of your main.

How they decided the pairings also depends heavily on who the scum are to start.

[Prism]

Pav, given that it is public information, is there any chance you can put the hoods into one of the opening posts?

[Prism]

I tried my best to make the recent set of posts as level, genuine, and critical without being mean-spirited or vicious. While I hope I succeeded, I apologize if that is not the case. Impact matters more than intent, but I hope knowing that I genuinely tried for that set to keep it level will allow for some benefit of the doubt.

What. I'm not allowed to read into it? I mean... ok.
Back to lurking then.

- Norwee

I think it was fine to question the legitimacy, which is why I pointed you to meta if you were concerned about it.

"Freaking out over nothing" though did indeed tilt me off the ends of the earth and when you said that you weren't questioning the legitimacy, yeah I almost blew a fuse. There's a disconnect here over "trying to understand" vs. "questioning the intent" which I viewed as equivalent, though the latter is arguably more aggressive.

I felt strongly that

why

I hated the qualitative points around the mechanical discussion was to just finish up my posts on them, which is why I said I'd circle back.

[Prism]

I felt strongly that [the best way to explain]

why

I hated the qualitative points around the mechanical discussion was to just finish up my posts on them, which is why I said I'd circle back.

EBWOP

I don't think I need the walk anymore but I do have to start packing for a flight in a few hours. I'll be around.

[Prism]

Should also note that my instinct was to scumread the "trying to understand" bit but I think the disconnect means I should allow for some leeway, and arguably showed more goodwill than bad.

[Prism]

IV, why are you currently voting in the group of 6?

[Prism]

Okay, I'm getting on my flight, you're all safe to start posting again.

[Prism]

I very much stand by the whole "i dont get why puppy feigns mechanical enthusiasm as scum" thing (and, i think prism's take on this is kinda bad and weird, do you really think that holds up on a reread?)

Can you remind me what my take is on this and why it is bad?

Very short post, long drive atm and am just stopped for gas

[Prism]

(Being more explicit, I am very confident I did not weigh in on that at all)

[Prism]

Oh, my reaction to YOUR take on it, I see

[Prism]

Well, will revisit when I get home but it hit me at both my skim and actual read-through.

So yes!

[Prism]

Esther, I'm assuming that the vote comes from wanting to do group of 3.

Can you talk about the two options more explicitly FYPOV?

[Prism]

My concern is essentially that you were trying to give a read and interact substantively, but I didn't feel like there was any depth to it at all.

My interaction with Cabd was different because it was a direct call-out rather than a tag-along to someone else's point, but the comparison was never really the point.

[Prism]

FWIW I am looking forward to the next chapter of Captain Slade & Doctor Zhiv

[Prism]

YEET

shovels popcorn

[Prism]

Maybe after I finish my protein Elmer's

[Prism]

I realized something horrible while out running.

It's not just that I'm waiting for notscience to post so I can sort him, or that the game would be better with full participation

I

need

notscience. I need him to show up, to say something I disagree with, to condescend to him in my corrections, to treat him like an errant teenager even though he is the same age.

Without all of it I am empty, aimless, a hollow shell devoid of purpose.

[Prism]

It...It just isn't the same, you know?

[Prism]

[Prism]

Reminder to myself to say something (not an attack dw) to Kuriyama tomorrow

[Prism]

the whole point of that was not to get in the way of the current interactions lmao but the ~mystery~ too strong

tl;dr: I'm intentionally trying to give you space (I had you narrowed to 2 people pregame) and avoid undercutting/questioning your approaches this game. If you ever want to dialogue on a slot, though, or want direct feedback let me know.

All of that will obviously go out the window if I ever think you're acting in bad faith but we'll cross that bridge if we ever get there and I hope we do not.

and don't ask me now because I'm going to BED

[Prism]

tl;dr congratulations you are the ydrasse now, i wanna be aggro and carry but if u do ok that work 2

[Prism]

I will not be here today. I just got my first acceptance into law school.

I do not have words to express. I am overwhelmed. I have worked towards this every day for over two years, with nothing else in mind. So much of why I have kept playing, and why I play so intensely, was tied to this.

Thanks to everyone that has put up with me the last two years.

[Prism]

I quit drinking two years ago, so I guess it's time to go buy three bottles of Martinelli's instead.

[Prism]

This is like the dollar store version of Warehouse 13

I'm still going to sit on esther for now until I can reread but F

[Prism]

...Can you be more specific as to why this isn't your scumgame?

I am assuming this is Lukewarm, I thought a few other posts were notscience welp

[Prism]

I'm kind of halfassing while killing time, will chew on 345 but I don't really see why you would be a lock for large group. You got better in Guardians but your confidence is definitely not there to single carry yet.

[Prism]

Glancing against at the group of 6, what the fuck?

You might not be familiar with all of the players there but why are they already excluded from going in 6?

[Prism]

Going back to 345 itself instead of the quoted section here at the top I should stop halfassing but uhhhh yeah

I can yeet either slot with Extreme Prejudice so far

[Prism]

Again I do not find the first paragraph persuasive at all given Guardians. You played your heart out and did well but still fell to more experienced players, and it is not just Pooky you are afraid of.

VOTE: Todoroki

I really do not like what Esther has given either, I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what, but I feel confident that 391 is a borderline scumclaim.

[Prism]

We are definitely not taking the game in the same way but even with the description you're giving this seems completely unsalvageable.

Will still revisit later but yeah.

[Prism]

You're worried about me at a minimum and are probably worried about Kuriyama and Dunnstral.

notscience also definitely has reason to be afraid of the people in 6.

You're not putting yourself in the 6 as scum if you're worried about Day 1 autoloss.

[Prism]

It is a point of contention but I have been very adamantly in favor of shooting in the small group.

I think ~4% EV is significant and do not buy the qualitative arguments in favor of the large.

[Prism]

...And both you and notscience have been scumread early. It is also hard for

both

of you to dodge. This is handwaiving the others and expressing confidence in both of your scumgames that I frankly do not think you have, and this is

just taking your word for it

on Day 1 autoloss and not assuming you planned for 3 or for both.

It is not lost on me that half of the Group of 6 I struggle to read, even if I doubt it was done for that purpose.

[Prism]

Struggle to believe that notscience wouldn't jump at the chance of a 50/50 if he can prove himself town and instead goes snipehunting in 6

As town he is more than happy to take 1v1 challenges and run with it even if he loses.

[Prism]

Okay.

I do not expect your reads to persuade me but maybe they will. I look forward to seeing who you think is scum in both the 6 and the 3.

[Prism]

(I think both of those are overly specific and trying to resist me generalizing. This would be valid if you're town, but I don't buy that you are worried in exactly these specific scenarios and pretty confident otherwise, it is more likely that the specific scenarios are especially concerning and the rest only mild to medium concerning.

And you thinking 4 of the 6 are universally worse suited is ????? if legitimate)

[Prism]

I'm going to let the game breathe for a bit.

I would also like esther to weigh in, if my pushing you was uncomfortable it should now no longer be an issue.

[Prism]

"I haven't been eliminated Day 1" to mean you wouldn't be worried about it.

"When not actively panicking" is a qualifier to the above, but again has the feel of "I'm strong when I'm not under pressure" where you obviously wouldn't feel pressure or anxiety upon flipping scum, because no elim Day 1 etc.

[Prism]

I legitimately can't tell if you feel like you

have

to justify this to survive or are just confused and getting increasingly convoluted in your explanations because of you have your role PM in hand

[Prism]

That is still a ridiculous amount of conditionals and I am skeptical of several, again in particular 2 and 4.

I think you understand why I am skeptical. It is not much of a puzzle and I have been very direct.

Do you think me being wrong is scum indicative or motivated? If not, go find scum in the 3 or 6.

[Prism]

I don't think 410 needs a response even if I hypothetically could.

[Prism]

And if not, why not? would be nice for the last question of 411

[Prism]

Depends on your level of play, but this is about what

I think Lukewarm thinks of Lukewarm

.

Yes.

[Prism]

One link that is clearly broadly relevant and not of questionable motivation/veracity will suffice. There are still other concerns but that would help.

[Prism]

It's literally you saying you wouldn't put yourself in the small hood without 4 of 6 as scum. There is blatant scum motivation unless you think you will specifically be called out for it.

I take it back, save the link, I am flipping you, this is absurd and you are not this dense.

[Prism]

I am way too frustrated by several aspects of this and am about to get progressively more vicious.

Link it and I'll evaluate later.

[Prism]

I can see Lukewarm doing the endless question spiral as town, will check against scum record later when not malding.

[Prism]

I was wondering about for scum not just for town though I guess that applies to both.

Either way I don't want to nitpick further with you right now. I will revisit and there are other places for you to direct your attention if I am wrong, rather than focusing solely on defense.

I am LOGGING OFF AND DRINKING MY MARTINELLI'S, GOODBYE

[Prism]

I am willing to unvote you but this is exactly what I expect after MELO.

I think we all expect better from you.

[Prism]

UNVOTE:

This is not free, and I am willing to flip you.

[Prism]

The structure of that is weird, and seems to be both to me and someone else without a clear transition.

[Prism]

I don't plan on recording until tomorrow, when I can sit down and work.

[Prism]

Revoting*

[Prism]

VOTE: Todoroki

Fundamentally, nothing has changed for me since yesterday.

Put the slot out of its misery. As always, it is possible I am wrong but I would be very surprised if I were.

[Prism]

I'm fine hunting in the 6 but I strongly believe this should be the flip today.

[Prism]

I mean if we’re talking about people breaking expectations a reach out from you is about the last thing I ever expected to see posted

If I can call it a reach out? I dunno. It should be obvious why I can’t play my normal way, but I digress.

It may have been surprising but I fundamentally doubt you believe it is +scum. You have acknowledged repeatedly that I do not play fair as scum, and I strongly suspect you are at least familiar with my scumgame. You are aware that I am not fferyllt nor petapan.

The actual motivation of my initial reachout was partially for you, but more for the larger game: it was to set a lighter tone and manage town morale after a complete absence of posting. I didn't agree with Brighter that I said anything fundamentally objectionable, but it is important that others want to post, because otherwise I can't sort. I was actually hoping to get a reaction out of Kuriyama in my section about you.

The second was an attempt to leverage that same desire for public recognition, not from me but from others. The intent was to get you to motivate you to play better. I was out eating food and saw the bit about disappointment and was greatly annoyed. I eat my burger and celebrate you digging your own grave as scum, as I had good reason to be away all day.

Any progression around reaching out would be done with the idea of capitalizing on your vote/misdirection. This is not the case; you are in the group of 3, and I have been trying to force you through since last night. I never put you there to begin with because you are never getting voted out as town. I would be significantly more ruthless and more explicitly capitalize on the idea of a

realizations on your end

to capitalize on your desire for recognition/equality similar to what I did to quiet in Iceland, and

exploit your vote to a concrete advantage

.

I don't expect you to know all of the above, but I do not think you seriously expect me to unvote yesterday as scum and casting especially the second as a heartfelt reachout was a stretch. It is to my win condition to set you up to succeed as town. As scum I am significantly more vicious and you know that much.

[Prism]

It is worth noting that I

do

"set people up to succeed" as scum, but it is always for them to fall completely flat onto the concrete.

You're in the group of 3. You can flip a coin and catch my partner, and will be a forced nightkill as a clear if you do so, without ever once being able to use it to my advantage. My alignment shouldn't even be a question.

[Prism]

...Is that supposed to be notscience or Luke?

[Prism]

I'm assuming it's Luke.

[Prism]

I was going to say hammer now if it was notscience but c'est la vie.

I don't see anything in that to respond to. I have been in the weeds enough. Responding to the third paragraph in particular would be an unparsable mess. It suffices for me to say: I think you come up with a reason to say you place yourself in 6 as scum, and I think you expect any scrutiny/pushback to be cursory rather than til death. I do not think it is particularly bold or requires great confidence to do so.

I'm not going down a rabbit hole where of course you don't say something that will get scrutiny from me unprompted, why would you do that, when my reaction was blatantly not anticipated and time has proven it was a death sentence after the fact.

[Prism]

I hope you have a good birthday, but I don't think it's an accident that you are talking essentially only to me here.

I do not think that post is a diamond where you are ready to 1v5. I also do not think notscience would be ready to 1v5. I think both of you go to the group of 3 and do all the damage you can.

If you feel that this should have been minor or negligible, then okay, but I do not feel that way and I did not find notscience's posts last night plausible either.

[Prism]

Rereading through MELO, notscience explicitly acknowledges that hardshoving and intentional space are two dichotomies of mine I frequently utilize as town.

Someone just put the horse down before someone claims flailing makes them town and makes Lukewarm sit here all day.

[Prism]

I considered whether or not you were town for hours and intentionally slept on it before revisiting. If I'm wrong, then OK, I have been wrong before and will be again, but I don't think I am and I am absolutely at this point determined to see you through.

[Prism]

...And in the other 2 in your group?

[Prism]

Okay, thanks, will review if necessary.

[Prism]

notscience seemed to think Esther was obviously scum, but was still inclined to go hunt in the group of 6.

Which is miraculous since his only other reads seemed to be me for being hot/cold in my various attempts to get him to do something, and the name of dwlee drawn out of a random.org hat.

[Prism]

1. It was already E-1 last night, which you acknowledged. I have already unvoted once. I have also made it clear that the next vote would be hammer, several times.
2. Esther lolhammering would be a very good trade, but they're also already voting there.

[Prism]

Can you be more explicit as to why you think Todoroki should not be the vote today?

The only argument I see to hold off is to let Dunnstral check in.

[Prism]

The above is kind of putting words into your mouth, but my point is that you're sitting here in the middle after being AFK for half the game and now want to cry foul when we're actually voting.

If you're busy, okay, but I have given more than enough and from my perspective you're either scum flopping in preparation for tomorrow or are just getting in the way for zero reason.

[Prism]

Like, you could say I'm hedging by not voting you too which is a totally fair point to make! Or that I'm not really pushing IV (which should frankly hint that I'm town, IV knows scum-me LOVED the chance to get in his head and twist him in circles), and instead letting him do his own thing and think about what he's posted.

okay imma be honest i was sort of gonna keep it private but there's no point anymore

this is prolly like the main argument for me townleaning you / ur not really here or trying to pocket me or anything like that

i remember when we were hydraing together u wanted to go HARD in that familiar plist if we were scum and Bulge straight TRd you for not doing that, lmao. My guess is you two would've gone harder had you rolled scum.

i weakly feel worse because you've mentioned this yourself but i still think you would've forced more thread presence as scum/i believe Luke to an extent when he says he would've pushed you to post more as well

I don't think this is necessarily wrong, but I don't this game has worked out how either envisioned as scum, between both being busy and me immediately going for the throat. notscience is remarkably inconsistent and even in a world where he knows what is expected or desired he struggles to deliver on it.

I don't really think Todoroki's interactions with you have been very indicative either, sorry, especially when they frame it in a way that is arguing they're town in light of it.

[Prism]

Cool. I think the read on me is dogshit and I'm willing to call you on it.

[Prism]

I also think Lukewarm's recent progression is, but the first pass was at least right and the conversation that seems to be happening on me outside of thread appears to be basically zero, each trying to get me to doubt the read on the singular head and instead faceplanting completely.

[Prism]

I'm going to save the criticism for postgame, there's no point to this. If I get egg on my face I get egg on my face.

[Prism]

As always, voices other than my own and my ego would probably be a good change of tune.

[Prism]

I love the idea of Kuriyama just watching me be aggressively wrong and sipping tea while watching me piledrive the game into the ground.

P-Edit: I hate that you only NOW commented on that lmao, after presumably watching the whole time

[Prism]

Fair enough, just didn't really get that impression from the quick reaction to IV.

I will ~go outside~ and leave you to it for now.

[Prism]

I can't wait to policy Dunnstral tomorrow and watch him flip green

[Prism]

There are no final qualifications from me.

My bet is down and I will accept the L with pride.

[Prism]

I'm not falling for it.

That said, if I am wrong I am sorry. Never meet your heroes.

[Prism]

I will wait for the flip before commenting further.

[Prism]

I hate having to guess what is theater here.

Why can't y'all motherfuckers post before the hammer, or at least wait a few hours and post in the hood?

[Prism]

Pav I deadass spent 10 minutes wondering who the fuck no kills

[Prism]

1. Luke I am so fucking sorry

2. notscience I am slightly less sorry but still very sorry

[Prism]

Anyway I did most of my reading for the day a few hours back, will post it for the 2 another time.

Kuriyama was pretty widely townread so that's not much of a surprise. It helps to know that at least we were dumbasses together instead of taking turns.

I still think we go in 3, absolutely better mechanically, but am open to the 6 depending on what people want.

[Prism]

who would you vote in big hood right now if you had to make the choice?

I realized this was to MC not the whole game but I feel like I have to post this



(It would also be Dragons)

[Prism]

i thought u wanted us

I said it was the dumbest thing I could possibly do because it was lmao

I'm really hoping I just don't have to make the call on your alignment ever but mafia games are not so nice and gifting

[Prism]

i'm busy but i concur with norwegianpuppy regardless of where we wind up actually voting, be the people's hero iv

[Prism]

Not sure 643 is right but I will do the math again later and I think it's best to force people to hunt everywhere

[Prism]

I think 651 is intellectually dishonest but w/e I'll come back another time

[Prism]

Glad to see you finally showed up to play lmao

I'm up for water but will be around in the morning.

[Prism]

because, from my perspective, prism has to be maf.

???????????????

At some point I will work through everything but consider working back through it again before I get there.

[Prism]

Day 1 was unfortunately one of the hardest townclaims I have made in my entire life, in probably the worst possible way, but okay, will visit in the morning.

I am glad to see you playing with more fire in any case regardless of alignment.

[Prism]

Finished parsing and will write something up.

If you have any specific questions, now would be a good time.

I am curious as to why you think I was so ready to vote in the 6 given 646 and 655.

[Prism]

I also do not think it was an all-town wagon at this juncture, and would not be surprised if there were 2, but I think you are underselling the possibility.

I have tried to make this as collated as possible.

1. The scum wagon on Todoroki was overwhelmingly beneficial to mafia. The wagon was mafia driven, and more specifically the push was likely a strategic calculation by Prism.

I think this benefits greatly from the power of hindsight and retrospective fitting. I can wax poetic about my scum strategy and meta, but the short of it is this: This depends on me

knowing in advance that I would get universally townread for a Todoroki push

, or at least not widely scumread. This is not a feasible strategic gameplan for me, who adamantly refuses to entertain even the idea of losing as scum. I am extremely risk averse as scum and do not believe in betting the games on Day 1 gambits. It is very easy to look back and say "Well, nothing went wrong in Prism's push on Todoroki", but a million things could have gone wrong-many of them completely out of my control.

The simplest scenario, and by far the most likely, is Todoroki putting up stiffer resistance and becoming townread, which would be disastrous and put me on the ropes the rest of the game if not out entirely.

I am shocked that Brighter Puppy still says I even have "the most influence" because I mauled any reasonable ability to impose my reads on others with a sledgehammer on Day 1. In contrast, I am very confident in my ability to solo carry so long as there are no PRs or mechanical confirmation of me.

2. Todoroki was right and the reach-out was odd.

I think that 516 is worth revisiting. I can go further and do a more explicit compare/contrast of when I set people up to faceplant and when I legitimately want others to jump in, but I think 516 suffices.

It is important to keep the two posts to notscience in place contextually. In the first, I am going down the line of trying to keep players engaged and motivated. Brainstorming ways to do this on my run, and thinking through, the idea of me depending on notscience for my mafia purpose was hilarious imo, though others may have disagreed. In the second, my words were not paternalistically individual: they were turning notscience's words back on himself, and trying to get him to be more combative and rigorous in the event he was town.

3. Prism's shift to being open to 6 doesn't make sense.

"Being open to 6" means if I am outnumbered and outvoted. I had my day as an ego monster, and do not intend to be a town dictator today. Arguing mechanics is miserable and several players (Brighter, Dunnstral) are not changing their minds.

This angle is somewhat concerning to me because my last posts were 646 and 655.

[Prism]

Contextually, it is important to know what happened in the 6hood overnight.

I advocated for 3, Kuriyama concurred, dwlee concurred. I frame it very explicitly as having a strong preference but not strongarming. The only comment from me in favor of voting in the 6, which came in the 6hood rather than in this thread, was when dwlee came by and dismissed Dragons' push on him without reacting to anything substantively. I said something along the lines of "Now I'm down to vote in 6" as an empty threat.

I stand by my statement that it is best to force people to hunt in both categories even if I want 3 at the end of the day.

If you remain concerned about my interactions with notscience, specifically around the unvote, I would strongly encourage visiting Perpetual MELO in conjunction with the above linked 516.

As a final note, I have been willing to play along with not outing your main, but it is difficult to do so when you ask about my expectations for you. You have been very sharp at setup design, and immediately understood that voting in 3 was better. It was jarring to see you find that single mediocre reason persuasive.

[Prism]

lmao maybe i should consider the all-town wagon theory, because at this point i feel more like im being encouraged to spam the thread repeating the same "yes, i did explicitly say im asking from my perspective" points ad nauseum than i am getting a real answer to a question whose basic premises i think ive outlined pretty explicitly.

i think i am town.
i think maf are on the wagon.
the above two makes you and dunn town.
scum!dwlee, knowing my alignment and reasonably assuming i believe maf to be on the wagon, would have the ability to determine this for themself.
scum!dwlee is therefore advocating for clearing puppy and dunn in advocating for a three-group flip day three.
is it more likely that scum!dwlee simply hadnt thought this through, or doesnt care about clearing a player, than that prism is mafia?

again, for i think the eightieth time at this point, from my perspective?

I think this is batshit insane FWIW

1. The entire chain of clearing based off of your flip is ???. Dunnstral literally showed up right after the wagon was hammered, and IV was in no danger. Brighter was committed to voting in 6 and at no point was IV in any danger. This is significantly more persuasive reversed to be about your slot being scum, which was actually a viable wagon.
2. dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second worried that town will buy it,

based off of your play Day 1

, is batshit crazy.
3. dwlee has a 50%+ chance of losing on the spot if we voted in 6 today and knows that from 6hood

[Prism]

EBWOP

2. dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second be worried that town will buy it and he will be PoE'd by essentially clears,

all of this based off of your play Day 1

, is batshit crazy.

[Prism]

this post implies there's not much fight in her but she's out here grinding. Which I RESPECT IT dawg the AtE game is strong there.

I think you're in for a very rude awakening.

[Prism]

I will weigh in more later. This has me wanting to do more extensive meta of esther, who I am very familiar with as town but have never seen as scum.

Brighter has harped very repeatedly on the point that scum is counting on us to not be able to work together, which again strikes me the wrong way along with the fullthroated defense that I don't think is really justified.

[Prism]

this post implies there's not much fight in her but she's out here grinding. Which I RESPECT IT dawg the AtE game is strong there.

I think you're in for a very rude awakening.

what do you mean?

...Did you find the rest of her posting as without any fight in her?

It is arguably a last ditch flail, but that is not my current impression.

[Prism]

Very fair and deserved criticism.

[Prism]

Still not sure I buy the point. Town absolutely starts from a place of demoralization only to catch inspired fire.

[Prism]

Very fair and deserved criticism.

??

I skipped around the post and definitely missed your larger point. You have my sincere apologies.

[Prism]

I was reacting specifically to your point that it was implausible town behavior. I am not the best representative sample but I have done such drastic motivation swings frequently.

I think it is plausible for esther-town with some reservations that lead me to defer until I can work back over more comprehensively.

Historically, I have placed great value in personal reactions to me and aggressively pursuing anything I felt was off-key. While I have had some spectacular hits, I have also had several recent disasters of misses and Todoroki, who I was certain was the one player I

did

have this on, is the nail in the coffin.

It would be very easy for me to assume several points, in particular the strategic angle, are in bad faith, but I increasingly think this is a mistake.

[Prism]

How confident are you that IV is town?

[Prism]

I will be absent most of the day, but I will try to check in. We have plenty of time right now and should use it.

My focus is primarily going to be on esther/IV but I will try to circle back in the group of 6 when I have time. Brighter is most likely town by default but I would like to be very rigorous moving forward.

[Prism]

You have a habit of using two hyphens instead of one.

The other player who does this, and has failed to change it across alts previously, is Morning Tweet.

[Prism]

lmao, that settles that

[Prism]

Unfortunately this means the flurry of posting probably isn't as AI as I hoped it would wind up being so

haha yeet drawing board time

[Prism]

Maybe it still is.

Sounds like a problem for the Prism of tonight or tomorrow

[Prism]

I am out for the night but I would revisit my criticism of the reasoning the clearing.

It was absolutely discrediting it, but I did not find it scummy nor frame it as it. Complicated, and extremely disagreeable, reasoning can be very town.

I was skeptical of the strategic framing, but think it irrelevant with the knowledge you are not Morning Tweet.

[Prism]

Also, counting on people to share your view of the all-town wagon as clearing multiple players on the flip, and moving to avoid those clears pre-emptively, is propogating a questionable belief (HAS to be all town wagon) down several layers while appending even more to it.

Very short restatement, no time to be thorough sorry, can revisit if needed.

[Prism]

Also, counting on people to share your view of the all-town wagon as clearing multiple players on the flip, and moving to avoid those clears pre-emptively, is propogating a questionable belief (HAS to be all town wagon) down several layers while appending even more to it.

Very short restatement, no time to be thorough sorry, can revisit if we want.

[Prism]

thank u phone

well there wants and there are needs

[Prism]

Might help to know myself and Dragons both think it is possible for the wagon to have been all town.

Only one of us max is scum.

P-Edit: Yes, has to be scum driven, my mistake.

[Prism]

Slightly stronger statement on my end but he went through it being ~primarily~ town driven and FMPOV my point suffices for me alone, if I don't believe that as town no one else

has to

even though they might, extension was for your sake

All of this was in response to 824 and understanding what my critique was. If you understand it now+it's not relevant to your current PoE then okay.

Anything else can come later.

[Prism]

You have a habit of using two hyphens instead of one.

The other player who does this, and has failed to change it across alts previously, is Morning Tweet.

i literally /inned for morning tweet's game in theme queue

prism is town for completely botching esther's identity, lmao

How is this even remotely indicative?

[Prism]

aight YEET PHONE OUT WINDOW

PLAY PING PONG

[Prism]

840 from me isn't actually logically valid because your point was predicated on scum beliefs about town beliefs not just town beliefs

Time to buy more Elmer's but very pedantic

[Prism]

Dunnstral, how worried are you about deadlocking?

Specifically, are you aware it is impossible to actually get IV voted out without a drastic shift in the landscape?

[Prism]

And if it is not Dragons, and not Dwlee, who would it be?

Perhaps an explanation on Dwlee would go somewhere.

[Prism]

I just thought Kuriyama wanted to go in 3, but looking again he had shifted to lean into voting in 6. Huh.

Well, not the first thing I have missed this game and probably won't be the last. All the Elmer's clogging up the neural pathways this game.

Will be back tomorrow, though I do have two interviews to prepare for so idk how much reading I will get done.

[Prism]

She*

[Prism]

You specifically cited my posts as very town by tone iirc, both individually and as a collective, and that it was more strategic planning that was a concern.

Reading me by tone is not a good idea in general, but the use of "pinging" typically applies here and this seems a reversal of your previous stance.

I can again go over strategy another time but it is very meta-heavy. I am extremely conservative as scum and protect my own slot and influence to the death, and again the fact that these things are somehow intact is not a calculation but borderline magic. While I will not speak for notscience, I think reviewing Lukewarm makes it clear what his issue was with my slot: He did not expect me to be wrong.

[Prism]

I think the idea I want to vote in 6 should be solidly dead now, not just in doubling down but with a plethora of knowledge about the in between.

I did not like that you skipped my posts to Dunnstral arguing against it.

[Prism]

You did engage with the not-dicatorial bit, but did not really acknowledge that my last posts before your spree were again advocating for voting in 3.

[Prism]

why do you care so much about my scumread on you? like, you presumably dont view it as genuinely threatening.

For the first, the short answer is to sort you. The long answer is deeply ingrained habit.

Second, I do.

[Prism]

(Reads are notoriously fickle; at least two players will be eager to exploit it, whether by eliminating me or just living in the margins, and not nipping it in the bud immediately regardless of what you are would be negligent.)

[Prism]

It's more of a statement about me than a statement about you.

I don't really want to rehash this from scratch again. I don't disagree that my stance softened, my point is that I was not secretly preparing a pivot. There is a fundamental disagreement on the value of my countering Dunnstral in 655 that I did not feel you acknowledged.

I should have time tomorrow to tackle several projects I have on deck. I'm not really confident in voting anywhere at the moment.

[Prism]

Me: I should go to bed and prepare for my two interviews that affect my personal life goals and professional career

Also me: Someone is wrong on the internet and I will convince them why even if it is impossible

[Prism]

I don't have the time I thought I would.

Very concerned about deadlock, Dragons voting in 6 currently swings tide. 4 votes for 3 but two are opposed.

[Prism]

The last few pages have sold me on Esther being town. I will want to meta but the last two pages are very, very sharp if she is scum.

I strongly prefer going in 3.

I know I have things to answer later, will get to them.

[Prism]

In 6 would go Dunnstral->Dragons->Dwlee->Brighter

Large gap between Brighter and rest

[Prism]

Brighter can you explain the esther scumread?

Hammering last page isn't guaranteed but is fine play from her point of view depending on partner

[Prism]

Thanks, will chew on it, promise to get back to you on the rest when I have time

[Prism]

I think my list above holds for both worlds, would need to re-ISO

I would really prefer answering anything substantive later when I am not frantically running around sorry

[Prism]

List is ordered S->T

[Prism]

It's 1/4, have been over that, you haven't done shit all game and hold your cards close to chest when there is reason to do so. You're pursuing autowin and still holding back.

[Prism]

Pushing IV as the scum with 0 explication and full knowledge they cannot logistically get flipped with way votes were set

[Prism]

Fuck it I will just drive home, ~30 minutes.

[Prism]

I am literally driving home 30 miles and spending $4 on gas only to have to turn back around later so if you go AWOL for another 48 hours I swear to God if dwlee flips town either day I will vote you and call it even

[Prism]

This was stupid.

I'm turning back around.

Sorry Dunnstral. I respectfully see a world where you push a miselim in 6 and hope for a blitz Day 3.

[Prism]

My comment was about today. Day 1 was squarely my fault.

I will be back tomorrow. I am sorry again if 972 was uncomfortable for anyone. I have tried very hard to stay off the Tilt-A-Whirl this game but have not done well enough.

[Prism]

I am currently inclined to flip him but I still intend on doing my due diligence. I don't really have a timeline, though. I am getting increasingly concerned about my ability to stay balanced & emotionally level and might just do what I did in MELO and block out strict 1/2 hour playtimes.

Very convenient stopping point for IV.

[Prism]

Assuming we wind up flipping in 3, Brighter I am sorry I have not really been able to accommodate for your preference, and while it would be justified please do not burn down my house if it ends up in a loss.

I am very impressed with your play this game (both heads!) regardless of alignment. My votes have not been out of disrespect or stubborn dismissal.

[Prism]

I did not like dwlee's posts on the last page.

I posted it for consideration but did not myself find the hammer argument decisive, because while under threat Esther has been on the upswing and a flip in 6 means she has a good chance of winning tomorrow. She also just can't afford it if her partner is Dragons or Dunnstral.

They have not at all tackled the IV side of the equation. Last we checked IV was still town.

[Prism]

I stopped after I went to verify 859 and did not realize 861 existed until I went back and ISO'd last night.

I don't like that Dwlee is advocating to elim in the small hood for info but can't pinpoint what that info is, and won't try to do so.

850 is the entire reason a flip in 3 is better to begin with, and I while perhaps a bit too removed I think 654 had a point. I think you didn't like this post nor the followup, and I still disagree. The game definitely changes even if you can't run it all in advance.

I don't like their fake looking analysis of their own kill choices:

I also wouldn't kill kuriyama though and your reason sounds more made up

If I were scum one of the puppies or prism would be very dead right now

As it seems pretty unfounded.

I concur. Kuriyama is always going to be a threat and even while I doubted them they were at the top of my reads at the end of the day. While there are arguments for us individually, it is unclear why Brighter or myself were comparatively completely better.

[Prism]

Am i correct in assuming that you as scum would more likely view an scumread from Esther as something to be ignored, than if you were town and feel forced to respond to it?

I don't think this is correct, but it is very situation-dependent. I would likely be worried about esther/Todoroki haunting me from the grave in 3 way. Situationally, I save dismissive approaches more for 1v1s or Elo.

There are a variety of tools I use to deal with pushes on me as scum, but most of them involve intentionally leaning into the person's scumread to make them bite off too much and get dismissed by the rest of town, or playing a game of chicken so that I can fake tilt and get townread for it.

Pushing IV as the scum with 0 explication and full knowledge they cannot logistically get flipped with way votes were set

Is it my fault they can't be flipped?

Yes, though the fault is town-wide. No player in the 3 could get flipped without a self-hammer or someone from 6 switching, which means it was at the time only possible to either vote town in 3, regardless of which it was, or to force a vote in 6. I think you are usually very attuned mechanically and aware of what votes are required.

And when did I start pushing IV?

You have said a few different times IIRC that he was your pick for scum in 3. "Pushing" might have implied that you were advocating for his vote today, which was not the case, as you obviously were pushing for a vote in 6.

[Prism]

I think those are all of the questions for me.

I would like more from Dunnstral on the shift in 987. An explication on the room for doubt in small reads, why the initial reads were what they were and what changed over time, would be appreciated.

[Prism]

My plan essentially is to work through esther/IV ISOs and meta if I feel it would help. I would invite others to do the same.

If I feel motivated/something about the ISOs & votes tell me I should, I will also work through the 6 but I don't think there's a serious point in doing so right now and would be overkill. I can evaluate overnight as required.

[Prism]

Brighter, I will try and talk to you about esther later, am very willing to hear the concerns on the slot. I think they are playing very, very well if they are scum but it is not out of the realm of reason.

IV's content early was very impressive IMO. The last check-in in particular is egregious and I think he would have been doing aerials to get the scum flipped in a 1v1 basically right from the start.

[Prism]

(And I know you have posts typed up on it that I need to revisit already)

[Prism]

It is probably good for you to know that my 238 came after IV's "says vote in 3 but votes in 6" progression was pointed out by Dunnstral in the 6 hood.

I am not sold that it is not a partner interaction but that is a question to me for another day.

[Prism]

I'll be back to read after work. Any questions/dialogue are probably going to wait until after I finish my notes on both.

[Prism]

The only person who even thinks I could be scum at this point is your CC.

Did anything about my recent posts strengthen this read for you and prompt this double-down?

[Prism]

We did in fact have the votes to flip you and you stopped posting.

It is nice that you are angry now, the next morning, but it also does not do a lot to inspire confidence given that I just keyed in on this as something to be wary of.

[Prism]

I do remember the post about the alt debate making me town.

It's unclear to me why you go to bat for me right now, though, when that topic of discussion isn't really even on the table.

[Prism]

Okay, thanks, will evaluate later.

[Prism]

You aren't wrong, if it helps.

[Prism]

I am describing why I found the check-in questionable.

I am sorry if I am currently wrong. I am the one most likely to hammer you and have made it clear I intend to take my time.

[Prism]

I am intentionally not going to do anything this (real-life) day. I am currently alive in another game.

If people would rather not wait on me we can just YOLO it, but I still prefer waiting until I can work back through, and I think we have time for that before deadline.

[Prism]

Holy fucking shit lmao, I thought me getting so tilted by Dunnstral that I turned around and drove home was bad

[Prism]

I promise I will read that tomorrow but the issue wasn't just the two-line check-in, esther's play the last ~6 pages reminds me a bit of my own but it's very sharp and not a fair comparison at all.

I get that you might be busy but the stuff I thought was town (more eager to give reads early) is not inconceivably faked and from what I could see you have typically been eager to push things, even when you think they're crazy, while you've been more passive here

[Prism]

Very sharp as in I think they aren't making any mistakes as scum, ie. are likely town. I can go over it for you tomorrow.

[Prism]

Skimming through it looks like you understand that there are a few different points here and want something either singular (?) or at least more comprehensive.

I again promise that I am willing to play this very slow and am not just trying to speedlim you. I will respond to this in full tomorrow and am sorry if this is upsetting to deal with.

[Prism]

jsyk you're at E-2 not E-1 if that helps

[Prism]

I'm putting this off until tomorrow but if you want to lay out esther scum I'll review it tomorrow

Before the public release of the

Principia Scumhuntica

I strongly thought esther was town and while it is not inconceivable she is scum still lean that way

[Prism]

I fucking hate playing with you dude, absolutely snide and condescendingly so every fucking time.

Haven't once blamed anyone else for the Todoroki flip, you've seen me always take responsibility for being wrong game after game, and acting like I don't listen when I spend eons hunting you down and trying to get you to play every fucking game is intellectually dishonest at best and malicious at worst.

I'm happy for you that you think you're better and more openminded than me, if I call you better at the game will you shut the fuck up and leave it alone already? If you think someone is scum or my points are bad just stick to those instead of going out of your way to insult my style every fucking chance you get.

[Prism]

Even on a day when I make it clear I really want a break you can't resist taking a fucking snipe at me, jesus.

[Prism]

I am happy for you that you were right on Todoroki and I will be excited for you if Dwlee flips scum. You're literally voting IV, you're claiming it's not bad to do so, and I'm inclined to vote the same. Do you want me to mail you a fucking trophy?

P-Edit: Absolutely just to IV, yeah, not even remotely personal. Go kick rocks dude.

[Prism]

Whatever I'm just going to go drink more of my fucking Elmer's I will be by tomorrow

[Prism]

I do not believe this is a good faith conversation. While the statement is literally about the pairings, I do not think that was your only point. You also previously accused me of shifting the blame for Todoroki onto you, and have gone out of your way in several posts to take snipes that lie one the border between personal and play (ie. "I get that being wrong is your thing this game") even if this is not the immediate topic.

I don't want to talk about this with you further, either now or later.

[Prism]

I agree. Again, I do not wish to talk with you about this further, either now or later.

[Prism]

I see what you're saying, and it's precisely because I take this sort of pre-emptive "why you lost the cc [as scum]" tone as scum that I want to meta. I don't think the fact that it's in my scum toolset, though, means it's necessarily in hers and I stole it to begin with after losing to it as scum several times.

[Prism]

You don't really have to worry about me and I appreciate the distraction/refocus. I should really go to sleep.

I'm going to pretend this conversation with Dunnstral never happened in the morning. I am not going to try and guess whether it was intentional or not.

[Prism]

Long day, ~6 hours of driving, but almost finished.

I will try to vote tonight in 3. If it deadlocks I can go in 6.

[Prism]

IV could literally dodge this by just voting dwlee so part of me wants to flip them and just end this stupid shit but voting in 3 first is objectively better imo, not a hard if/then pairing

[Prism]

That is the pairing spitball I thought of today, yes, but I do not really like to preflip.

Taking a nap then will get up and work on shit.

[Prism]

I am so tired and sick of this game and hate that I am again being placed in the driver's seat. The chance for redemption just isn't fucking worth it, I did not want this and even if I successfully get a scumflip this is just miserable.

Promise is a promise. I'm up and moving, vote to come tonight.

[Prism]

Voting Dunnstral sounds nice in the same way downing an entire handle of Malibu does.

Tempting but probably wrong.

[Prism]

Dunnstral drives me up the fucking wall but I was wrong when I said that he was holding back on Dwlee, and Dwlee's posting after we I flipped to IV was egregious

[Prism]

I did not like dwlee's posts on the last page.

I posted it for consideration but did not myself find the hammer argument decisive, because while under threat Esther has been on the upswing and a flip in 6 means she has a good chance of winning tomorrow. She also just can't afford it if her partner is Dragons or Dunnstral.

They have not at all tackled the IV side of the equation. Last we checked IV was still town.

[Prism]

This is the line. Expect no realtime responses from me for awhile, thank you.

Every time I say I am about to do stuff people pull out a sparkler and say "but wait one more thing!"