Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!
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- mc esther
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mc esther Goon
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yes, it's autowin if (and only if) we hit them d1. if anyone can put forward an extremely compelling case on someone in the larger group, i'd consider it for this reason; but it's a pretty low-accuracy play.In post 17, Brighter Puppy wrote:if we get the scum in group alpha how does this not become an instant win for town on day 1~- mc esther
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i dont really want to get in a prolonged argument over eliminating from three vs. six. im probably going to anyway, but.
my main concern right now is that 1/6 is a ridiculously low hit rate, and the associative advantages being listed dont actually matter unless we stick a wagon on scum. we dont know who's unwilling to bus unless we wagon scum d1 -- so in practice, this is just the d1 autowin scenario (it's only different if someone's heavily wagonned d1 but doesnt flip until later, and their refusing-to-bus buddy hasnt been eliminated in the interim).~- mc esther
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my gut caught this too, but i think it's lying to me. i just dont really see why scum would post it.In post 43, Kuriyama wrote:Your enthusiasm for "mech" feels faked.~- mc esther
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mc esther Goon
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i dont think anyone's gonna townread firebringer for theoryposting, and i dont think firebringer expects to be townread for it.Kuriyama wrote:
to try to get townread?In post 52, mc esther wrote:my gut caught this too, but i think it's lying to me. i just dont really see why scum would post it.~- mc esther
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mc esther Goon
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fwiw, i think regardless of whether it's optimal, scum probably believe the "hard to read in smaller group" theory, and that i probably ended up in that group on those grounds ("nobody knows me" is pretty similar to "hard to read" imo).
i also think firebringer wouldntve put me in the smaller group.~- mc esther
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a lot of the setup spec in the first game is pretty weird (not in that any of it's bad, just in that the two major arguments dont really engage with each other very much); but imo the key point is bingle's comment, "If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p."
UNVOTE:
VOTE: save the dragons
also i think dunn's town~- mc esther
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yesIn post 150, Todoroki wrote:
Do you mean you giving him town points because his rvs vote was in the small hood?In post 148, mc esther wrote:i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.~- mc esther
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UNVOTE:
VOTE: todoroki
i'll have like, an actual post in a bit. maybe. didnt realize i let this game slip so far, it was a bit of a rapid-fire blur for me when i dipped out but it seems to've calmed down now. prism's posts will be, uh, interesting; i obviously dont (cant!) really agree with some of it, but i appreciate that the posts are closer to my "language" than puppy's (like, less shitposty, more deconstructive-analytical).~- mc esther
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mc esther Goon
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okay not much of a post sorry
idk about this one lol. it's not totally inconceivable but it seems a pretty odd mistake to make.In post 13, Brighter Puppy wrote:ngl i thought this meant that there was one confirmed townie neighborhood (2 plaeyrs) and everyone else was unconfirmed. this being (1 group of 2/1 and other 5/1 makes more sense)
i very much stand by the whole "i dont get why puppy feigns mechanical enthusiasm as scum" thing (and, i think prism's take on this is kinda bad and weird, do you really think that holds up on a reread?), but i agree that puppy is super questionable throughout the kuriyama interaction. the big one for me is:In post 45, Brighter Puppy wrote:i feel like ur just searching for reasons to throw at me at this point to see what can stickIn post 46, Kuriyama wrote:So you think I'm mafia who brought you in large group to attack you directly and tunnel you immediately off the bat?
puppy isnt exactly contradicting themself here, it is possible to believe that someone is "searching for reasons to throw at me" and also town, especially in rvs; but idk, this specific presentation of the idea is subjectively weird to me. i think to some extent firebringer does just read weird to me though. i like the way kuriyama probes puppy with questions about hydra chat on page five, it's a good angle. puppy vs. prism is similarly bad for puppy imo, i think prism mightve pointed this out somewhere but im not sure.In post 49, Brighter Puppy wrote:actually i think ur town. so now im gonna stop talking to u.
i expect to have thoughts on a couple of other players relatively soon, but most of you are all really null to me. most of you are puppy, judging by their postcount.
thanks, i guess <3 and tbh yeah if you got me on a good day i probably would know betterIn post 231, Prism wrote:I'm going to combine a strategy critique here with a criticism of the slot. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER hit 5 way ELO is the key counterpoint, and the clear is not nearly enough to justify going out of your way to seek the scenario (20->25% EV in 5 way, probably more w/ kingmaker mech, countered by better odds+getting a clear in 7p instead)
And I absolutely think she should know better.~- mc esther
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okay, sureIn post 269, Prism wrote:My concern is essentially that you were trying to give a read and interact substantively, but I didn't feel like there was any depth to it at all.
no! probably later; i mean, i suppose i have to eventually.In post 268, Prism wrote:Esther, I'm assuming that the vote comes from wanting to do group of 3.
Can you talk about the two options more explicitly FYPOV?~- mc esther
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In post 296, innocentvillager wrote:also idgaf about the group of 6/3 thing rly rn, i loosely prefer g3 because im in it but i don't want to get caught up in it anymore
so, what's the deal here? because, like, im the player in the 3-group and the player with a wagon on me, so if you believe me/dunn is the most likely solve, arent i the vote? i guess you could be going for the autowin if youre not so sure on todoroki vs. me, butIn post 302, innocentvillager wrote:oh wow wait rest is literally just dunnstral and esther, i forget how small these games are
huh
well ive solved the game :3
idk lolIn post 88, innocentvillager wrote:i get that killing the scum in the group of 6 is autowin but i feel it's just so unlikely~- mc esther
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youve never pushed me before because, as far as i can tell, we've never played together. im pretty sure ive only played with dwlee and firebringer here.In post 392, Prism wrote:I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what
i dont like what ive given either so no lol im not mad at you for scumreading me; i'd probably scumread me here. i didnt particularly like your very initial read on me, but after you clarified it, yeah i get you on that point too.In post 392, Prism wrote:I really do not like what Esther has given either
im mostly inactive because im asleep for most of when youre all active, and then i come back to [in reality not a] huge volume of posts [but it feels like it] which are largely impenetrable to me. that's also why i respond to you so much over everyone else, because i get what your posts mean, even if the end-result of my narrow responses is... frankly, not particularly useful gameplay. im gonna be a little mad if i get conftowned lmao, apologies in advance.
(i probably sound a lot more down on this game than i actually am, im enjoying it, im just very much struggling with it and acutely aware that it shows)
p-edit this is what i mean when i say "this game is impenetrable to me", i dont get the utility of a scumclaim here nor do i understand these posts as shitposts~- mc esther
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i do agree that todoroki looks kinda like scum who had assumed we'd yeet from 6 first and is now going "oh shit this really wasnt the plan" (im actually not sure anyone's explicitly framed it this way but i think someone hinted at it). i dont really understand prism's "practically a scumclaim" that he saw in todoroki's post, i think this mightve been an exaggeration?
im not really on-board with the consensus innocentvillager townread -- mostly because he very clearly doesnt believe the solve he's pushing. i think he's town because he looks townier than todoroki and only one of them is scum; but no i very much dont think there's any "yeah these posts have to come from town" in his iso.~- mc esther
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well im bad and it's not easy. "it's easy because it's 50/50" is a really weird assumption imo. at what point does it stop being easy, should we also be suspicious of everyone who doesnt have a hard read at 33/33/33?In post 480, Brighter Puppy wrote:then it should be pretty easy to sort between the two other players in ur group to find scum~- mc esther
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okay, two people have said this now and im still sitting here like "this literally doesnt make any sense given the gamestate, i cannot fathom suggesting this as either alignment". does anyone else actually believe this, do i need to explain?In post 483, Brighter Puppy wrote:U already set ground work to move to Innocentvillager if u need to.~- mc esther
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hehe okay i like the "arent you going to accuse me?" game~
ive thought about it, and sure, "oh shit my buddy might lose a 1 vs. 1" is a plausible reason to start making absurd claims like this. it seems a little too blatant though, like, i dont think i'd do that for my buddy. despite my strong language, i need to accept that sometimes people are just wrong.~- mc esther
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i missed this, but... yes? idk if im null-town or null-maf on you, there's a lot of wifom surrounding the "holy shit you are so tight with todoroki, is this actually a realistic scumteam?" issue. but in either case, youre not "so obviously mafia that there's nothing to be gained in treating you as town". im also just kinda relieved to have an exchange with you where i feel i get what's being said (even if i dont necessarily get why you say some of it).In post 490, Brighter Puppy wrote:At least i feel ur treating me as town
i dont think im treating todoroki as town, but i see why someone might come away with that impression. the point of statements like "and i think you can tell me why i wouldnt need to do that" is that the social fiction of their towniness kinda breaks down if they directly engage. either they hard-180 on a read which they must acknowledge was a little flimsy, or they double down on a bad position where they must know better.In post 490, Brighter Puppy wrote:Just seems like ur treating both of us as town.
_
i probably come across as quite humourless this game. im not (imo at least), but sure, my sense of humour doesnt match the humour on this site at all.~- mc esther
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in my defence(?), i did, and that was what started this :/In post 580, Prism wrote:Why can't y'all motherfuckers post before the hammer~- mc esther
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obviously i dont have much on innocentvillager and dont really expect to survive the day. imma iso him later (phoneposting at a friend's rn), i mentioned my main questionmark over him yesterday (although tbh on reflection im not actually sure how much i stand by it, again, gonna need a reread). i also felt that his concern over e-1 seemed really fake, i didnt mention that second point at the time, mostly because i was sick of being told i was hedging.
VOTE: innocentvillager~- mc esther
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i dont think that's true? i cant think numbers rn, again, i'll address it in a few hours.In post 609, Brighter Puppy wrote:We still instant win if we hit scum in our group~- mc esther
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probably std but it's pretty marginal; i didnt like his post about getting baited, lmao, nah man that was your hammer. maybe you, i dont get why youre reaching out to me rn.In post 612, Brighter Puppy wrote:who would you vote in big hood right now if you had to make the choice~- mc esther
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i felt like he was trying to absolve himself of responsibility.In post 622, Brighter Puppy wrote:What does "nah man that was your hammer" mean?~- mc esther
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so, reflecting on yesterday -- i shouldve been the miselim (dw, im going somewhere with this, it isnt just pointless pessimism). i had significantly fewer posts which were on average way worse and significantly less transparent (hence, why puppy is still pestering me for reads, dw pup im on it) than todoroki's.
so, going from there: i think a todoroki miselim, from a maf perspective, seemed disproportionately beneficial. maf probably extrapolated from my d1 play that i'll remain the miselim all the way to yeelo if need be; contrast todoroki, i dont think there was any guarantee that innocentvillager would continue to be townread over toki into lategame. unfortunately, this is only true from my "i know i am town" perspective, which i cant prove to anyone else. i wouldnt need to prove it if my claim was just "maf was on the miselim wagon", but im actually making a stronger claim: that the wagon was maf-driven (i.e., that prism(!) is mafia). it's significant to me that both todoroki heads had suspicions on prism at different points in the game (and sure, they were also sus on me, but i think they probably read prism better than they read me; dwlee, eh, idk yet, i keep forgetting theyre in the game). this would also explain the kinda half-hearted reach-out that baffled todoroki so much; if youre driving a miselim for specific tactical reasons, you probably dont want to look too enthusiastic about it.
i also think prism's kinda stealthily flipped on his relatively strong mechanical convictions. while he never outright said "we must very definitely eliminate small", he scumread me for claiming the contrary (tangent: "i absolutely think she should know better", why? have i given any indication that my theoretical-mechanical play is particularly strong? i really do appreciate the show of confidence, but i dont get why you would believe this) and voted exclusively within the three-group (but never innocentvillager!). he's a lot softer on this at the start of today, it's not a hard-180, but it still doesnt look natural to me.
the obvious point of contention here is that... innocentvillager wasnt on todoroki, he was on me. i dont think these are contradictory observations, i dont think "maf!prism drove the todoroki wagon to line me up as a miselim at pretty much any arbitrary point in future" is incompatible with "maf!innocentvillager didnt vote todoroki". the other possible objection is "but inno isnt trying to miselim you later, he's gunning for you right now". sure, but i dont think inno believes the small-group elimination is guaranteed today; "innocent wants me eliminated now, but is reasonably confident i'll still be available as a miselim later" is a coherent view for him to hold. it's even possible that he doesnt particularly want me eliminated right now, and is expecting prism to continue softening on the six-group and nudge the town in that direction.
inno/prism also makes sense as a scumteam, although pretty much anyone/inno or anyone/prism could make sense as a scumteam, so this isnt super relevant overall.
i also want to point out that "toki miselim disproportionately benefits maf" makes std look way worse than dwlee. todoroki seemed to think that both std and prism should read them pretty accurately, so even if we ignore my "maf-driven" theory, their presence on the wagon is a lot more suspicious than mine and dwlee's.~- mc esther
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it's difficult to rank prism/dwlee/std as scumreads, because theyre all scummy in very different ways (and, literally cant be scum together). prism's individual posts ping super towny, it's only when you view them at this macro level (and, under the assumption that im town) that a maf strategy emerges. std's for the most part pretty nai, it's one specific incident (the hammer and surrounding comments) that look bad, but it looks really bad. dwlee's posts are frustratingly inane, like, he's contributed even less than i have imo, especially when you omit theory. theyre very apples-oranges-bananas scumreads.
laying these thoughts out, i get where puppy's coming from with his start-of-day comments and they look a lot townier to me now. the six-group (uh, five-group) is pretty difficult to disentangle rn and associations across the two groups really would help. both innocentvillager and myself could be buddied with literally any of these people.~- mc esther
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ive been pretty solid on dunnstral town all game, and while that's weakened a little (his lines of enquiry are all pretty obvious, and also you can only lurk so much before i start questioning the townread), he's probably my strongest townread, followed closely by puppy (i think im done going back-and-forth on puppy, lmao we'll see). usually youre meant to poe-read scum, not town lol, but yeah, dunn's the only person in this game where im going "i just dont have the reasons to fos you that i have on other players"
overall, i dont think a lack of content is actually alignment-indicative for dwlee, though this isnt actually the extent of the scumread on them. other people have picked out inconsistencies and generally odd views in their posts, but imo theyre town over std and i guess by extention over prism. i do not care to rank std/prism right now, again, apples-oranges; and also, i really do think inno should be the elim today.
p-edit, i'll parse those out and comment if this doesnt answer, i started typing this out before you asked~- mc esther
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when i say "std/prism scum over dwlee", yeah, that's a look at the end-of-day wagon. when i outline the way in which prism pushing the todoroki wagon super hard is massively beneficial to mafia, no, i dont really care about the rest of the wagon when making that point (beyond the fact that, the wagon happened).
these comments largely ignore innocentvillager, except where i explain that inno's refusal to vote todoroki doesnt contradict the view that maf probably really wanted that elim.~- mc esther
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yeah, prism's softening on the six-group makes a ton of sense if you assume that maf!prism knows (and, lmao, he would know, he's easily the most analytical player here) that an elim within the three-group skyrockets dunnstral's and puppy's towniness. i dont really see how else you explain his move from "sus on me for shifting to six-group, and voting exclusively within the three-group" to "idk maybe six is okay".~- mc esther
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shouldnt you lim within three-group then? like, isnt dunn very definitely my partner from your perspective? im not trying to poke holes in your theory or anything, im 100% done back-and-forthing on you, youre locktown. it's just that you kinda got stuck tunnelling six-group imo and while that was actually kinda useful in a round-about way (it definitely did expand the discussion to a broader scope than it otherwise wouldve been), it was always incorrect and i think it's largely lost its utility at this point even from your own argument.~- mc esther
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why do we need a reason outside of "everyone townread kuriyama". there were literally no consensus townreads aside from -- wait for it -- prism.In post 701, Brighter Puppy wrote:Why would Prism kill Kuriyama outside of 'everyone townread kuriyama'~- mc esther
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like, who do you think prism shoots if not kuriyama? sheep are useful but damn lol he's really gonna kill puppy/dwlee/std over her?
std isnt my partner because almost every post ive made about them has been a scumread? i'll admit, not backed up by a vote, so it could be "fake", but he's a much less likely partner than dunn.
fair call on dwlee, i guess dwlee's a vaguely plausible partner for me.~- mc esther
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im assuming it comes from prism because, from my perspective, prism has to be maf, and you posed me the direct question "well how does nka factor into this". my overall answer is "frankly, it doesnt, she was obvtown to everyone, literally anyone could shoot her, including prism", but okay i'll go check the thread to verify this belief is actually true.~ - mc esther
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