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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:08 pm

Post by mc esther »

i think we eliminate from the smaller pool first? higher accuracy means we can build associations with fewer miselims, yeah?

VOTE: todokori
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Post Post #16 (isolation #1) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:30 pm

Post by mc esther »

this is firebringer posting rn, yeah?
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Post Post #20 (isolation #2) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:36 pm

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In post 17, Brighter Puppy wrote:if we get the scum in group alpha how does this not become an instant win for town on day 1
yes, it's autowin if (and only if) we hit them d1. if anyone can put forward an extremely compelling case on someone in the larger group, i'd consider it for this reason; but it's a pretty low-accuracy play.
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Post Post #22 (isolation #3) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:39 pm

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can we just go with "larger" and "smaller" group?
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Post Post #48 (isolation #4) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:04 pm

Post by mc esther »

i dont really want to get in a prolonged argument over eliminating from three vs. six. im probably going to anyway, but.

my main concern right now is that 1/6 is a ridiculously low hit rate, and the associative advantages being listed dont actually matter unless we stick a wagon on scum. we dont know who's unwilling to bus unless we wagon scum d1 -- so in practice, this is just the d1 autowin scenario (it's only different if someone's heavily wagonned d1 but doesnt flip until later, and their refusing-to-bus buddy hasnt been eliminated in the interim).
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Post Post #52 (isolation #5) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:09 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 43, Kuriyama wrote:Your enthusiasm for "mech" feels faked.
my gut caught this too, but i think it's lying to me. i just dont really see why scum would post it.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #6) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:13 pm

Post by mc esther »

Kuriyama wrote:
In post 52, mc esther wrote:my gut caught this too, but i think it's lying to me. i just dont really see why scum would post it.
to try to get townread?
i dont think anyone's gonna townread firebringer for theoryposting, and i dont think firebringer expects to be townread for it.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #7) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:24 pm

Post by mc esther »

fwiw, i think regardless of whether it's optimal, scum probably believe the "hard to read in smaller group" theory, and that i probably ended up in that group on those grounds ("nobody knows me" is pretty similar to "hard to read" imo).

i also think firebringer wouldntve put me in the smaller group.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #8) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:44 pm

Post by mc esther »

can you link to the game?
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Post Post #140 (isolation #9) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:32 pm

Post by mc esther »

a lot of the setup spec in the first game is pretty weird (not in that any of it's bad, just in that the two major arguments dont really engage with each other very much); but imo the key point is bingle's comment, "If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p."

UNVOTE:
VOTE: save the dragons

also i think dunn's town
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Post Post #144 (isolation #10) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:40 pm

Post by mc esther »

i liked the questions, i like that he got town strategy wrong despite having played before.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #11) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:46 pm

Post by mc esther »

i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.
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Post Post #178 (isolation #12) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:55 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 150, Todoroki wrote:
In post 148, mc esther wrote:i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.
Do you mean you giving him town points because his rvs vote was in the small hood?
yes
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Post Post #251 (isolation #13) » Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:31 am

Post by mc esther »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: todoroki

i'll have like, an actual post in a bit. maybe. didnt realize i let this game slip so far, it was a bit of a rapid-fire blur for me when i dipped out but it seems to've calmed down now. prism's posts will be, uh, interesting; i obviously dont (cant!) really agree with some of it, but i appreciate that the posts are closer to my "language" than puppy's (like, less shitposty, more deconstructive-analytical).
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Post Post #252 (isolation #14) » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:47 am

Post by mc esther »

okay not much of a post sorry
In post 13, Brighter Puppy wrote:
In post 1, Pavowski wrote:On night zero, one mafia goon neighborizes two townies, and the other mafia goon neighborizes the remaining players.
ngl i thought this meant that there was one confirmed townie neighborhood (2 plaeyrs) and everyone else was unconfirmed. this being (1 group of 2/1 and other 5/1 makes more sense)
idk about this one lol. it's not totally inconceivable but it seems a pretty odd mistake to make.


i very much stand by the whole "i dont get why puppy feigns mechanical enthusiasm as scum" thing (and, i think prism's take on this is kinda bad and weird, do you really think that holds up on a reread?), but i agree that puppy is super questionable throughout the kuriyama interaction. the big one for me is:
In post 45, Brighter Puppy wrote:i feel like ur just searching for reasons to throw at me at this point to see what can stick
In post 46, Kuriyama wrote:So you think I'm mafia who brought you in large group to attack you directly and tunnel you immediately off the bat?
In post 49, Brighter Puppy wrote:actually i think ur town. so now im gonna stop talking to u.
puppy isnt exactly contradicting themself here, it is possible to believe that someone is "searching for reasons to throw at me" and also town, especially in rvs; but idk, this specific presentation of the idea is subjectively weird to me. i think to some extent firebringer does just read weird to me though. i like the way kuriyama probes puppy with questions about hydra chat on page five, it's a good angle. puppy vs. prism is similarly bad for puppy imo, i think prism mightve pointed this out somewhere but im not sure.

i expect to have thoughts on a couple of other players relatively soon, but most of you are all really null to me. most of you are puppy, judging by their postcount.
In post 231, Prism wrote:I'm going to combine a strategy critique here with a criticism of the slot. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER hit 5 way ELO is the key counterpoint, and the clear is not nearly enough to justify going out of your way to seek the scenario (20->25% EV in 5 way, probably more w/ kingmaker mech, countered by better odds+getting a clear in 7p instead)

And I absolutely think she should know better.
thanks, i guess <3 and tbh yeah if you got me on a good day i probably would know better
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Post Post #288 (isolation #15) » Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:50 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 269, Prism wrote:My concern is essentially that you were trying to give a read and interact substantively, but I didn't feel like there was any depth to it at all.
okay, sure
In post 268, Prism wrote:Esther, I'm assuming that the vote comes from wanting to do group of 3.

Can you talk about the two options more explicitly FYPOV?
no! probably later; i mean, i suppose i have to eventually.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #16) » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:39 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 296, innocentvillager wrote:also idgaf about the group of 6/3 thing rly rn, i loosely prefer g3 because im in it but i don't want to get caught up in it anymore
In post 295, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: dunnstral
In post 302, innocentvillager wrote:oh wow wait rest is literally just dunnstral and esther, i forget how small these games are

huh

well ive solved the game :3
so, what's the deal here? because, like, im the player in the 3-group and the player with a wagon on me, so if you believe me/dunn is the most likely solve, arent i the vote? i guess you could be going for the autowin if youre not so sure on todoroki vs. me, but
In post 88, innocentvillager wrote:i get that killing the scum in the group of 6 is autowin but i feel it's just so unlikely
idk lol
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Post Post #454 (isolation #17) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:38 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 392, Prism wrote:I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what
youve never pushed me before because, as far as i can tell, we've never played together. im pretty sure ive only played with dwlee and firebringer here.
In post 392, Prism wrote:I really do not like what Esther has given either
i dont like what ive given either so no lol im not mad at you for scumreading me; i'd probably scumread me here. i didnt particularly like your very initial read on me, but after you clarified it, yeah i get you on that point too.

im mostly inactive because im asleep for most of when youre all active, and then i come back to [in reality not a] huge volume of posts [but it feels like it] which are largely impenetrable to me. that's also why i respond to you so much over everyone else, because i get what your posts mean, even if the end-result of my narrow responses is... frankly, not particularly useful gameplay. im gonna be a little mad if i get conftowned lmao, apologies in advance.

(i probably sound a lot more down on this game than i actually am, im enjoying it, im just very much struggling with it and acutely aware that it shows)

p-edit this is what i mean when i say "this game is impenetrable to me", i dont get the utility of a scumclaim here nor do i understand these posts as shitposts
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Post Post #474 (isolation #18) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:31 pm

Post by mc esther »

i do agree that todoroki looks kinda like scum who had assumed we'd yeet from 6 first and is now going "oh shit this really wasnt the plan" (im actually not sure anyone's explicitly framed it this way but i think someone hinted at it). i dont really understand prism's "practically a scumclaim" that he saw in todoroki's post, i think this mightve been an exaggeration?

im not really on-board with the consensus innocentvillager townread -- mostly because he very clearly doesnt believe the solve he's pushing. i think he's town because he looks townier than todoroki and only one of them is scum; but no i very much dont think there's any "yeah these posts have to come from town" in his iso.
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Post Post #476 (isolation #19) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:44 pm

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im assuming you take issue with "i think inno's town even though he doesnt believe his own solve". town do this, it's a little bit odd this late in the day, but i can still see it from town (especially as a way of trying to force low-content slots like me and dunn to do something).
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Post Post #479 (isolation #20) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:09 pm

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yes, i dont have a hard read d1, you got me. im very obviously not hedging in preparation for tomorrow, and i think you can tell me why i wouldnt need to do that.
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Post Post #482 (isolation #21) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:30 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 480, Brighter Puppy wrote:then it should be pretty easy to sort between the two other players in ur group to find scum
well im bad and it's not easy. "it's easy because it's 50/50" is a really weird assumption imo. at what point does it stop being easy, should we also be suspicious of everyone who doesnt have a hard read at 33/33/33?
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Post Post #484 (isolation #22) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:46 pm

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In post 483, Brighter Puppy wrote:U already set ground work to move to Innocentvillager if u need to.
okay, two people have said this now and im still sitting here like "this literally doesnt make any sense given the gamestate, i cannot fathom suggesting this as either alignment". does anyone else actually believe this, do i need to explain?
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Post Post #487 (isolation #23) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:56 pm

Post by mc esther »

tbh it's not even true that im waffling (and im sometimes a pretty waffly player!), i explicitly stated which i think is maf over the other and have consistently been voting them since literal start of day (with a brief diversion to the 6-group).
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Post Post #489 (isolation #24) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:07 pm

Post by mc esther »

hehe okay i like the "arent you going to accuse me?" game~

ive thought about it, and sure, "oh shit my buddy might lose a 1 vs. 1" is a plausible reason to start making absurd claims like this. it seems a little too blatant though, like, i dont think i'd do that for my buddy. despite my strong language, i need to accept that sometimes people are just wrong.
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Post Post #494 (isolation #25) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:36 pm

Post by mc esther »

yeah, i was answering the second part.

the revote was to see if std would unvote as the wagon piled up.
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Post Post #499 (isolation #26) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:24 pm

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In post 490, Brighter Puppy wrote:At least i feel ur treating me as town
i missed this, but... yes? idk if im null-town or null-maf on you, there's a lot of wifom surrounding the "holy shit you are so tight with todoroki, is this actually a realistic scumteam?" issue. but in either case, youre not "so obviously mafia that there's nothing to be gained in treating you as town". im also just kinda relieved to have an exchange with you where i feel i get what's being said (even if i dont necessarily get why you say some of it).
In post 490, Brighter Puppy wrote:Just seems like ur treating both of us as town.
i dont think im treating todoroki as town, but i see why someone might come away with that impression. the point of statements like "and i think you can tell me why i wouldnt need to do that" is that the social fiction of their towniness kinda breaks down if they directly engage. either they hard-180 on a read which they must acknowledge was a little flimsy, or they double down on a bad position where they must know better.

_

i probably come across as quite humourless this game. im not (imo at least), but sure, my sense of humour doesnt match the humour on this site at all.
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Post Post #560 (isolation #27) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:52 pm

Post by mc esther »

following up on the "to see if std unvotes" thing, i think he's todoroki's buddy after those two posts about hammering. idk, stating intent would suffice if there's genuine intent, but twice saying "yeah i totally might sometime idk lol" doesnt come across as genuine to me.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #28) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:01 pm

Post by mc esther »

lmaooooo the dunn post too late
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Post Post #577 (isolation #29) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:04 pm

Post by mc esther »

yeah tomorrow's gonna suck, sorry all. i think we still go small (i doubt anything's changed, mathematically) but i think we just lose from there.
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Post Post #585 (isolation #30) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:06 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 580, Prism wrote:Why can't y'all motherfuckers post before the hammer
in my defence(?), i did, and that was what started this :/
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Post Post #608 (isolation #31) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:52 pm

Post by mc esther »

obviously i dont have much on innocentvillager and dont really expect to survive the day. imma iso him later (phoneposting at a friend's rn), i mentioned my main questionmark over him yesterday (although tbh on reflection im not actually sure how much i stand by it, again, gonna need a reread). i also felt that his concern over e-1 seemed really fake, i didnt mention that second point at the time, mostly because i was sick of being told i was hedging.

VOTE: innocentvillager
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Post Post #610 (isolation #32) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:06 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 609, Brighter Puppy wrote:We still instant win if we hit scum in our group
i dont think that's true? i cant think numbers rn, again, i'll address it in a few hours.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #33) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 612, Brighter Puppy wrote:who would you vote in big hood right now if you had to make the choice
probably std but it's pretty marginal; i didnt like his post about getting baited, lmao, nah man that was your hammer. maybe you, i dont get why youre reaching out to me rn.
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Post Post #619 (isolation #34) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

im off rn, i'll be back when i get home.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #35) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:49 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 622, Brighter Puppy wrote:What does "nah man that was your hammer" mean?
i felt like he was trying to absolve himself of responsibility.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #36) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:22 pm

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so, reflecting on yesterday -- i shouldve been the miselim (dw, im going somewhere with this, it isnt just pointless pessimism). i had significantly fewer posts which were on average way worse and significantly less transparent (hence, why puppy is still pestering me for reads, dw pup im on it) than todoroki's.

so, going from there: i think a todoroki miselim, from a maf perspective, seemed disproportionately beneficial. maf probably extrapolated from my d1 play that i'll remain the miselim all the way to yeelo if need be; contrast todoroki, i dont think there was any guarantee that innocentvillager would continue to be townread over toki into lategame. unfortunately, this is only true from my "i know i am town" perspective, which i cant prove to anyone else. i wouldnt need to prove it if my claim was just "maf was on the miselim wagon", but im actually making a stronger claim: that the wagon was maf-driven (i.e., that prism(!) is mafia). it's significant to me that both todoroki heads had suspicions on prism at different points in the game (and sure, they were also sus on me, but i think they probably read prism better than they read me; dwlee, eh, idk yet, i keep forgetting theyre in the game). this would also explain the kinda half-hearted reach-out that baffled todoroki so much; if youre driving a miselim for specific tactical reasons, you probably dont want to look too enthusiastic about it.

i also think prism's kinda stealthily flipped on his relatively strong mechanical convictions. while he never outright said "we must very definitely eliminate small", he scumread me for claiming the contrary (tangent: "i absolutely think she should know better", why? have i given any indication that my theoretical-mechanical play is particularly strong? i really do appreciate the show of confidence, but i dont get why you would believe this) and voted exclusively within the three-group (but never innocentvillager!). he's a lot softer on this at the start of today, it's not a hard-180, but it still doesnt look natural to me.

the obvious point of contention here is that... innocentvillager wasnt on todoroki, he was on me. i dont think these are contradictory observations, i dont think "maf!prism drove the todoroki wagon to line me up as a miselim at pretty much any arbitrary point in future" is incompatible with "maf!innocentvillager didnt vote todoroki". the other possible objection is "but inno isnt trying to miselim you later, he's gunning for you right now". sure, but i dont think inno believes the small-group elimination is guaranteed today; "innocent wants me eliminated now, but is reasonably confident i'll still be available as a miselim later" is a coherent view for him to hold. it's even possible that he doesnt particularly want me eliminated right now, and is expecting prism to continue softening on the six-group and nudge the town in that direction.

inno/prism also makes sense as a scumteam, although pretty much anyone/inno or anyone/prism could make sense as a scumteam, so this isnt super relevant overall.

i also want to point out that "toki miselim disproportionately benefits maf" makes std look way worse than dwlee. todoroki seemed to think that both std and prism should read them pretty accurately, so even if we ignore my "maf-driven" theory, their presence on the wagon is a lot more suspicious than mine and dwlee's.
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Post Post #681 (isolation #37) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:31 pm

Post by mc esther »

it's difficult to rank prism/dwlee/std as scumreads, because theyre all scummy in very different ways (and, literally cant be scum together). prism's individual posts ping super towny, it's only when you view them at this macro level (and, under the assumption that im town) that a maf strategy emerges. std's for the most part pretty nai, it's one specific incident (the hammer and surrounding comments) that look bad, but it looks really bad. dwlee's posts are frustratingly inane, like, he's contributed even less than i have imo, especially when you omit theory. theyre very apples-oranges-bananas scumreads.

laying these thoughts out, i get where puppy's coming from with his start-of-day comments and they look a lot townier to me now. the six-group (uh, five-group) is pretty difficult to disentangle rn and associations across the two groups really would help. both innocentvillager and myself could be buddied with literally any of these people.
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Post Post #682 (isolation #38) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:32 pm

Post by mc esther »

ebwop: theyve contributed even less than i have imo
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Post Post #686 (isolation #39) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:43 pm

Post by mc esther »

ive been pretty solid on dunnstral town all game, and while that's weakened a little (his lines of enquiry are all pretty obvious, and also you can only lurk so much before i start questioning the townread), he's probably my strongest townread, followed closely by puppy (i think im done going back-and-forth on puppy, lmao we'll see). usually youre meant to poe-read scum, not town lol, but yeah, dunn's the only person in this game where im going "i just dont have the reasons to fos you that i have on other players"

overall, i dont think a lack of content is actually alignment-indicative for dwlee, though this isnt actually the extent of the scumread on them. other people have picked out inconsistencies and generally odd views in their posts, but imo theyre town over std and i guess by extention over prism. i do not care to rank std/prism right now, again, apples-oranges; and also, i really do think inno should be the elim today.

p-edit, i'll parse those out and comment if this doesnt answer, i started typing this out before you asked
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Post Post #688 (isolation #40) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:48 pm

Post by mc esther »

when i say "std/prism scum over dwlee", yeah, that's a look at the end-of-day wagon. when i outline the way in which prism pushing the todoroki wagon super hard is massively beneficial to mafia, no, i dont really care about the rest of the wagon when making that point (beyond the fact that, the wagon happened).

these comments largely ignore innocentvillager, except where i explain that inno's refusal to vote todoroki doesnt contradict the view that maf probably really wanted that elim.
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Post Post #690 (isolation #41) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:13 pm

Post by mc esther »

assuming maf is on the wagon, then me or inno flipping (confirming inno as maf) wholly clears dunn and puppy. i'd really like to prove this.
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Post Post #691 (isolation #42) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

dwlee cant know this as town though, so it doesnt directly vindicate their comments on flip information.
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Post Post #692 (isolation #43) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:19 pm

Post by mc esther »

on the flipside, they would know this and wouldnt want this as maf
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Post Post #693 (isolation #44) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:22 pm

Post by mc esther »

yeahhhhh im tentatively on dwlee town (and, lmao, less town on puppy again, idk i just feel like theyre trying to pocket me, although the obvious counterpoint is that it probably doesnt make much sense to pocket me). town dunn, null-town puppy/dwlee, maf std/prism.
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Post Post #694 (isolation #45) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:25 pm

Post by mc esther »

wait. puppy's clear. this is even easier.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #46) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm

Post by mc esther »

yeah, prism's softening on the six-group makes a ton of sense if you assume that maf!prism knows (and, lmao, he would know, he's easily the most analytical player here) that an elim within the three-group skyrockets dunnstral's and puppy's towniness. i dont really see how else you explain his move from "sus on me for shifting to six-group, and voting exclusively within the three-group" to "idk maybe six is okay".
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Post Post #696 (isolation #47) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:43 pm

Post by mc esther »

sucks that this is largely (entirely?) specific to my point-of-view, sorry i cant turn up something more generalized for you all
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Post Post #699 (isolation #48) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:54 pm

Post by mc esther »

shouldnt you lim within three-group then? like, isnt dunn very definitely my partner from your perspective? im not trying to poke holes in your theory or anything, im 100% done back-and-forthing on you, youre locktown. it's just that you kinda got stuck tunnelling six-group imo and while that was actually kinda useful in a round-about way (it definitely did expand the discussion to a broader scope than it otherwise wouldve been), it was always incorrect and i think it's largely lost its utility at this point even from your own argument.
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Post Post #700 (isolation #49) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:57 pm

Post by mc esther »

like, if you believed i was town and wanted to hunt within the rest of the wagon, i think that'd make a lot of sense. but if it's me/dunn or inno/std (imo inno/prism is super clear, but i get that you dont believe it, whatever), dont you need that flip?
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Post Post #702 (isolation #50) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:00 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 701, Brighter Puppy wrote:Why would Prism kill Kuriyama outside of 'everyone townread kuriyama'
why do we need a reason outside of "everyone townread kuriyama". there were literally no consensus townreads aside from -- wait for it -- prism.
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Post Post #705 (isolation #51) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:03 pm

Post by mc esther »

like, who do you think prism shoots if not kuriyama? sheep are useful but damn lol he's really gonna kill puppy/dwlee/std over her?

std isnt my partner because almost every post ive made about them has been a scumread? i'll admit, not backed up by a vote, so it could be "fake", but he's a much less likely partner than dunn.

fair call on dwlee, i guess dwlee's a vaguely plausible partner for me.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #52) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:07 pm

Post by mc esther »

i dont think he'd shoot you over kuriyama, like, he needs a late-game miselim and that's the player he said he didnt want to try and read -- he can just townread everyone else and call you poe.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #53) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:07 pm

Post by mc esther »

dunn would be a legit good kill, i'll admit that.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #54) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 pm

Post by mc esther »

i was going to say "okay, he loses his buddy, who's third", but obviously if he loses his buddy youre clear, so okay i guess youre not his miselim after all. i still flatly dont believe that shooting kuriyama over you clears prism, like, kuriyama is the "no info, she's just obvtown" kill.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #55) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:16 pm

Post by mc esther »

im assuming it comes from prism because, from my perspective, prism has to be maf, and you posed me the direct question "well how does nka factor into this". my overall answer is "frankly, it doesnt, she was obvtown to everyone, literally anyone could shoot her, including prism", but okay i'll go check the thread to verify this belief is actually true.
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Post Post #715 (isolation #56) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:17 pm

Post by mc esther »

you also asked specific questions about why he specifically would shoot her, which i answered, albeit, pretty much entirely incorrectly.
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Post Post #716 (isolation #57) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:21 pm

Post by mc esther »

yeah okay, my memory's bad; it was just me, std, inno, and todoroki townreading kuriyama
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Post Post #718 (isolation #58) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:23 pm

Post by mc esther »

uvfgh okay sure, nka complicates this. so, who shoots kuri, in your opinion? because i'll admit, ive suddenly got nothing on that front, like, does std make that shot?
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Post Post #719 (isolation #59) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:25 pm

Post by mc esther »

@prism "has to be" is kinda hyperbole. fmpov it has to be between you, dwlee, and std. i dont think it's dwlee because i dont think they want the three-flip as maf, so it's between you and std. currently i strongly think you.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #60) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:27 pm

Post by mc esther »

does inno make that shot? does dwlee make that shot? ive gotta admit, i wouldve killed her, but ik it's not me.
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Post Post #723 (isolation #61) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:33 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 713, Brighter Puppy wrote:This idea came from Prism. Ur continuing it. Which is Fucking strange to me. Cause u scumread Prism.
not really lol, if prism holds the same mistaken belief which i did, he still has the same motivation to shoot her that i wouldve. prism can be honestly mistaken as maf here.
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Post Post #727 (isolation #62) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:48 pm

Post by mc esther »

i think maf would be comfortable leaving you alive even if you pegged and consistently hard pushed both of them; like, and this sounds a little mean but, you havent really convinced anyone of anything, you didnt save todoroki and you didnt get an elimination within your preferred pool.
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Post Post #729 (isolation #63) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:50 pm

Post by mc esther »

fair, i guess, and sorry for rubbing it in then. you just seemed to think you were more of a kill target than i believe you are in your pagetop.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #64) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:17 pm

Post by mc esther »

okay, so as ive said previously, town!me clears dunn and puppy. is there anything [similarly useful] that scum!me would prove? like, anyone i cant be buddies with? anyone who cant really be maf if inno is town?
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Post Post #738 (isolation #65) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:46 pm

Post by mc esther »

does that hold even if myself and std both flip town? (okay, that cant really happen, that's gg perfect scumgame; i guess more, if inno flips maf and std flips town). like, would you really go dwlee over prism there, do you believe scum!dwlee so strongly advocates for eliminating three-group?
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Post Post #740 (isolation #66) » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:57 pm

Post by mc esther »

they pushed three-group elimination at the start of day (before i'd made the observation that my townflip clears you and dunn). it's possible that they simply hadnt noticed (after all, it took me an embarrassing little while!), but this point probably came up in pt, right?
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Post Post #742 (isolation #67) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:05 am

Post by mc esther »

because scum!dwlee probably doesnt want to undo mafia's progress in successfully denying town a clear?
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Post Post #743 (isolation #68) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:08 am

Post by mc esther »

it doesnt really clear them (i mean, fuck, being precise with my language, my townflip doesnt even "clear" you and dunn), but i think it makes them townier than the players who would rather look to the larger group. dwlee town is definitely a weaker read than you and dunn town, but i feel better about dwlee than "suddenly kinda okay with eliminating six-group after spending d1 vehemently arguing against it on statistical grounds" prism.
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Post Post #745 (isolation #69) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:22 am

Post by mc esther »

you dont really expect you to believe this, but as scum i wouldve taken the out you offered me start-of-day and voted within the big hood. i know for a fact that i dont beat innocentvillager in 1 vs. 1 short of a miracle, im okay with this entirely because i know my townflip gives town a clear.

these arent garbage associations, like, you strongly agreed with the main two (you and dunn). the only one up for contention is dwlee, which you disbelieve because???

prism literally wasnt proved wrong lmao, eliminating town doesnt prove that he eliminated from the wrong pool, and you cant tell me you believe that. literally, if he tries to agree with you on this point (which, he wont), he's basically mafclaiming.
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Post Post #746 (isolation #70) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:23 am

Post by mc esther »

my scumreads can be really fucking bad and that definitely causes a lot of self-doubt on the prism scumread. but, again, scum!prism explains how he pushes todoroki so hard while both heads are going "nah he should know better here", and the reach-out which todoroki didnt believe made sense, and why he softens on the six-group at the start of day two (which, no, you have not provided a valid alternate explanation for). it's such a perfect fit for three unrelated discrepancies in his play, im not really willing to give up on this so easily.
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Post Post #747 (isolation #71) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:24 am

Post by mc esther »

and, lol, why tf do i go after prism here as scum? i couldve just shot him if i wanted him gone that badly. ik i said i'd shoot kuri, but you probably dont believe me, right?
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Post Post #749 (isolation #72) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 am

Post by mc esther »

that's fair norwee, i didnt realize i was talking to someone else! so are you seriously proposing an all-town wagon?
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Post Post #751 (isolation #73) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:32 am

Post by mc esther »

okay, youre literally just telling me that my posts are scummy because im scum lmao. yes, everything ive said associatively has been exclusively fmpov. again, hence why i kinda want a three-group flip, because i know that my townflip is associatively meaningful, and i literally cannot prove this any other way (which is, the most infuriating thing in the world).
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Post Post #752 (isolation #74) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:35 am

Post by mc esther »

and like, holy shit if im scum please just vote me, i'll literally even self-hammer if that sweetens the deal. why wouldnt you want that? you either get a clear or a correct lim out of it, isnt this literally win-win?
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Post Post #753 (isolation #75) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:36 am

Post by mc esther »

i'd rather eliminate innocentvillager because im worried town will fuck up yeelo without the spare miselim, but this is far better than any six-group elim imo.
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Post Post #755 (isolation #76) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:37 am

Post by mc esther »

yeah that's definitely true, and im really hoping dunn will pick it up like i have
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Post Post #756 (isolation #77) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:39 am

Post by mc esther »

(okay, im hoping dunn will pick it up minus the "why the fuck would you think that" reads, there's only room for one conspiracy theorist in this game)
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Post Post #757 (isolation #78) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:42 am

Post by mc esther »

In post 752, mc esther wrote:i'll literally even self-hammer if that sweetens the deal
i'll also promise to not self-hammer, if that's what actually sweetens the deal.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #79) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:59 am

Post by mc esther »

to be clear, in the absence of "okay but only if you..." either way, my preference is to not, this is practically my first day in terms of content and omg it feels good to suddenly have actual takes on the thread and shit.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #80) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:04 am

Post by mc esther »

but yes, it's a bit premature to be discussing this literally within twelve hours of gamestart (yes i think im done frivolously multiposting now)
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Post Post #761 (isolation #81) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:27 am

Post by mc esther »

In post 738, mc esther wrote:does that hold even if myself and std both flip town? (okay, that cant really happen, that's gg perfect scumgame; i guess more, if inno flips maf and std flips town). like, would you really go dwlee over prism there, do you believe scum!dwlee so strongly advocates for eliminating three-group?
In post 740, mc esther wrote:they pushed three-group elimination at the start of day (before i'd made the observation that my townflip clears you and dunn). it's possible that they simply hadnt noticed (after all, it took me an embarrassing little while!), but this point probably came up in pt, right?
you didnt really answer this (you kinda just got caught up in the whole "but i dont think youre town" thing, which, fair lol), and though i think i can guess the answer, i'd kinda like to hear the reasons for it. is this an exception to your "no, prism cant be scum" belief, or would you instead take a line closr to "i dont see why dwlee would necessarily be aware of this"/"i dont see why theyd be so concerned with soft-clearing someone"? again, like, im asking your advice on how you would solve from my [stated] perspective, that im town and therefore maf on the wagon has to be elsewhere; i dont really care whether or not you believe my stated perspective is legitimate.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #82) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:32 am

Post by mc esther »

i guess it's a little selfish of me to expect the thread to spend so much time on a perspective they literally cant verify, but lmao youve been telling me that prism literally cant be maf and im like "okay, it's a weird read sure and i have a bad history with those; but even if i assume it's bad on those grounds and go for std first, can it really [again again, to me] be anyone else over prism if std flips town?"
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Post Post #768 (isolation #83) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:06 am

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lmao maybe i should consider the all-town wagon theory, because at this point i feel more like im being encouraged to spam the thread repeating the same "yes, i did explicitly say im asking from my perspective" points ad nauseum than i am getting a real answer to a question whose basic premises i think ive outlined pretty explicitly.

i think i am town.
i think maf are on the wagon.
the above two makes you and dunn town.
scum!dwlee, knowing my alignment and reasonably assuming i believe maf to be on the wagon, would have the ability to determine this for themself.
scum!dwlee is therefore advocating for clearing puppy and dunn in advocating for a three-group flip day three.
is it more likely that scum!dwlee simply hadnt thought this through, or doesnt care about clearing a player, than that prism is mafia?

again, for i think the eightieth time at this point, from my perspective?
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Post Post #769 (isolation #84) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:06 am

Post by mc esther »

ebwop: in advocating for a three-group flip day two
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Post Post #771 (isolation #85) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:15 am

Post by mc esther »

okay. i'll take that under consideration as i chew on the prism read some more. i very much stand by it for now, but "dwlee's gotta bus eventually, why wouldnt he try it now?" is the sort of counterpoint i was looking for, thanks.
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Post Post #803 (isolation #86) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am

Post by mc esther »

In post 454, mc esther wrote:
In post 392, Prism wrote:I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what
youve never pushed me before because, as far as i can tell, we've never played together. im pretty sure ive only played with dwlee and firebringer here.
prism, reiterating this, i really do think you have me mistaken for someone else. why do you think im whoever you think i am? i personally think im me.

firing up my computer (and brain) now.
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Post Post #805 (isolation #87) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:19 am

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i literally /inned for morning tweet's game in theme queue
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Post Post #817 (isolation #88) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:40 am

Post by mc esther »

i havent totally caught up/processed everything (i skimmed while half-awake), but based on what dwlee said about probably also eliminating within three as maf, okay i guess theyre not so obviously town [fmupov] after all. someone else (i think prism? i'll get back to it) said something else about this too that i havent really evaluated, but it's possibly moot in light of dwlee's "nah dont townread me here" lol.
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Post Post #818 (isolation #89) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:49 am

Post by mc esther »

In post 777, Prism wrote:The entire chain of clearing based off of your flip is ???. Dunnstral literally showed up right after the wagon was hammered, and IV was in no danger. Brighter was committed to voting in 6 and at no point was IV in any danger. This is significantly more persuasive reversed to be about your slot being scum, which was actually a viable wagon.
if im town, then six-group maf was on the wagon, then dunn has to be town? i dont think this is batshit! iirc you kinda hinted somewhere that i should be more receptive to the all-town wagon possibility, but even if i should, i dont think that a refusal to do so would be batshit, it would be frustratingly stubborn at worst.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #90) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am

Post by mc esther »

i guess this is how an all-town wagon would happen, though -- maf meant to get on it and just lucked out when town jumped on before they could.
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Post Post #820 (isolation #91) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 773, Prism wrote:The simplest scenario, and by far the most likely, is Todoroki putting up stiffer resistance and becoming townread, which would be disastrous and put me on the ropes the rest of the game if not out entirely.
can someone who's not prism weigh in on whether they believe this is true? i think he couldve disengaged with his towncred largely intact if toki became a consensus townread, but my take on this is probably the least informed of everyone here.
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Post Post #821 (isolation #92) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:02 pm

Post by mc esther »

okay imma quit the multiposting and collect everything into one post, because it seems like nobody's here to discuss individual points with, and i think this could get frustratingly spammy if i keep it up.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #93) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:04 pm

Post by mc esther »

lmao i found this post in another tab fuck im the worst sometimes. last short-form multi for now.
In post 773, Prism wrote:"Being open to 6" means if I am outnumbered and outvoted. I had my day as an ego monster, and do not intend to be a town dictator today.
this actually goes a long way towards explaining it to me -- i did note that while you were like, super vehemently against it on day one, you never outright said "we literally have to do this", "i literally wont vote six under any circumstances", etc.. the "it's because im not dictatorial, and now the thread seems less definitely on my side than yesterday" angle might make sense, especially given your account of six-hood discussion.
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Post Post #824 (isolation #94) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:28 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 777, Prism wrote:dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second worried that town will buy it, based off of your play Day 1, is batshit crazy.
in this world (my world!), he buys it based on my alignment flip, not based on my persuasive prowess. i think you know this!

i'll acknowledge that your point three (which, i obviously didnt know, so refusing to factor it in doesnt say anything about my alignment) provides a strong explanation as to why dwlee would vote three-group as maf. and, after their admission that theyd do it as either alignment, im clearly wrong on this point. but i dont think i could possibly know i was wrong at the time i made this comment, painting my wrongness as scummy doesnt make a whole lot of sense.

overall, i just get flashbacks to the way prism dismissed todoroki's chain of reasoning (#408 through to #411) with the way prism dismisses mine. that's not alignment-indicative -- town probably consistently tends towards the same sort of reasoning -- but i think he should be a little more doubtful in his dismissal after such a read has already backfired once?
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Post Post #825 (isolation #95) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pm

Post by mc esther »

in both cases, it kinda feels like prism chooses to take "unverifiable comments based on a person's unique knowledge of themself" as "i think youre being dishonest because i cant verify this". the fun part, ofc, is that we can prove my perspective correct, itll just take a little, heh, push.
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Post Post #826 (isolation #96) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:55 pm

Post by mc esther »

tbh i kinda wanted to townread dwlee for refusing to accept the townread lmao, but prism's observation that they view themselves as the likely six-hood elimination really does sink that. i'd be okay with going "okay, my bad, it's between std and dwlee", but imo prism looks worse than he did before he started posting today. that said, some of the stuff i dont like about his reasoning is stuff that norwee also got wrong, i can believe that maybe it's just hard to recognize where im talking from my "i am town" perspective and even harder to internalize it for the sake of argument.
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Post Post #827 (isolation #97) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:56 pm

Post by mc esther »

this is, to a large extent, my fault, and ofc i have the reverse problem -- it's kinda hard for me to ignore what i know and talk exclusively in generalizable and verifiable terms.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #98) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:26 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 775, innocentvillager wrote:I can add some value on who is scum in the big hood but i doubt i will be able to get it right with more than 20-30% accuracy when there's 5 people here.
imma be hypocritical here, but cmon lol this seems weirdly pessimistic. dont you trust your ability to scumhunt a little more than this?
In post 781, innocentvillager wrote:{prism} - Prism's confident bloodthirst for Todoroki yesterday was weird and putting him back at E1 was bad too. Yes it wasn't actually E1 but he thought it was functionally. im not gonna pretend to know prism meta inside and out but meta-wise everything else the slot has done seems tonally townie though. im not as confident here as puppy and it feels more likely he was just tunneled on todo.
i'll admit, it does make me anxious that the only other player willing to consider maf!prism is maf.
In post 776, innocentvillager wrote:What kind of town says that and then proceeds to suddenly up the activity across like 5 pages?
only the best~

fr though, i said i didnt have much on you -- and i dont see anything in my posting which contradicts this! yes, i upped my content dramatically, by posting about the six-group. your scumgame is very good (or at least, it is right now), i dont think i wouldve caught you were it not for the poe mechanics.
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Post Post #829 (isolation #99) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:24 pm

Post by mc esther »

also, i guess if i insist on adopting such a, uh, stream-of-consciousness posting style (i dont mean to! it just happens sometimes!), then i should stop assuming that anything ive said is clearly parseable. ofc people are going to miss things when i have ~fifteen fragments scattered across a page.
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Post Post #834 (isolation #100) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:42 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 831, Prism wrote:propogating a questionable belief (HAS to be all town wagon)
i might be misreading you, but im literally assuming the opposite? ive repeatedly stated that i dont believe the wagon is all-town, that is why six-group maf have to be on the wagon if i am town.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #101) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:45 pm

Post by mc esther »

"scum-driven" is only relevant to my case on you, not to my poe on dunn/puppy (and, formerly, dwlee).
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Post Post #837 (isolation #102) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:46 pm

Post by mc esther »

tbh if std is saying that, i feel pretty comfortable maintaining that std is much scummier than dwlee.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #103) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:04 pm

Post by mc esther »

huh, yeah, i cant be scum with prism, that's nice to hear. we need more of these, so far my biggest frustrating has been that while my townflip is associatively relevant, my scumflip isnt, which makes three-group elimination a lot less appealing to the people who think im maf.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #104) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:05 pm

Post by mc esther »

inno, pretending youre town for a sec, when did you start actually believing that the team is me/dunn (as opposed to, merely pushing it for reactions)?
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Post Post #850 (isolation #105) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:26 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 847, mc esther wrote:so far my biggest frustrating has been
these sorts of "i clearly just havent thought about my words" errors are littered all throughout my more rapid-fire posting and i hate it so much, gotta figure out how to slow down just the tiniest amount so i can get rid of this shit.
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Post Post #857 (isolation #106) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:49 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 856, Dunnstral wrote:It becomes a real concern if we eliminate wrong today and then try to eliminate in the small group again.
isnt this a relatively strong reason to eliminate small? i think the bad impression on d1 is going to be extremely difficult to reverse, i can imagine a very small handful of ways that people come around on townreading me, but theyre all really unlikely. if you believe there's a miselim here, surely you want to get it out of the way now?
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Post Post #858 (isolation #107) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:50 pm

Post by mc esther »

or are you saying you want to eliminate dwlee/dragons today and use the spare miselim to sort me and innocentvillager? makes sense i guess, but why not do it the other way around? we know for a fact that me and inno is a true 50/50, where std/dwlee is speculative.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #108) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

dwlee, who do you think my buddy is? i dont think i can find a read implying an answer anywhere, aside from some maybe-joking(?) digs at std.
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Post Post #863 (isolation #109) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

and yeah, i echo everyone else's question, but reframed a little: do you think iv's buddy is a different person from my buddy?
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Post Post #866 (isolation #110) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:19 pm

Post by mc esther »

im kinda coming around on dwlee over std based on "std doesnt kill kuri, but dwlee does". i dont think dwlee's current inactivity is alignment-indicative, but their relatively sparse d1 could be. still wayyyy pinging on prism but lmao i might just have to treat the scum!prism world as a lost game.
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Post Post #869 (isolation #111) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:48 pm

Post by mc esther »

ya fair, "pinging" was the wrong word. i was originally going for "sus" but, idk lol, felt wrong. had "fos" in there at one point, that was maybe the word to go with. yes, i was wrong about the six-group thing, i thought i acknowledged that, uh, somewhere, but i'll admit that im not 100% sure which thoughts ive voiced across my suddenly-rather-numerous posts.
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Post Post #870 (isolation #112) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:53 pm

Post by mc esther »

why do you care so much about my scumread on you? like, you presumably dont view it as genuinely threatening.
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Post Post #874 (isolation #113) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:04 pm

Post by mc esther »

omg lol im so flattered but idk that seems such a paranoid belief to me
In post 680, mc esther wrote:he's a lot softer on this at the start of today, it's not a hard-180, but it still doesnt look natural to me.
so like, this is the statement i made at the time; i guess that latter part ("doesnt look natural to me") is a subjective assessment that's pretty difficult to concretely agree/disagree on, but do you disagree with "a lot softer on this at the start of today"? because, that's the meat of it to me, im not sure i ever (okay, i probably inadvertently implied it somewhere in my burst of activity) said that you were explicitly advocating for eliminating within the six-group. to me, it's solely the post about six-hood conversation that debunks this, i dont think the posts were mischaracterized here (even if my language was not so precise elsewhere).
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Post Post #875 (isolation #114) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:07 pm

Post by mc esther »

like, the single most widely scumread player in the game posts a case out of nowhere which literally not a single person agrees with. it's nice to be seen as threatening, but i cant take that compliment!
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Post Post #877 (isolation #115) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

no! take it back! i changed my mind, i want the compliment!

okay, sure, i acknowledge it.
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Post Post #879 (isolation #116) » Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:29 pm

Post by mc esther »

dw, i'll still be here and wrong when you get back tomorrow
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Post Post #884 (isolation #117) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:46 am

Post by mc esther »

In post 881, Dwlee99 wrote:Actually dunn feels like he is very transparently going for lim me -> lim STD for the win
but is this, bad? i see these sorts of "lining up miselim" arguments a lot, and they never ring true for me (i might just be mad because people sometimes mistake my town play for this). if you think maf is between two people, you presumably believe they should both be eliminated, yeah? and have thoughts as to the correct elimination order? the problem sets in when someone tunnels the second elim to the point of ignoring new evidence, but you dont actually know whether or not someone's doing that from the initial post saying "we should lim x first and y second".
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Post Post #885 (isolation #118) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:57 am

Post by mc esther »

i dont think dunn's been exceptionally/weirdly hard on this, and i think dwlee knows that dunn knows that (omg no why am i writing like this) dunn isnt in a position to be lining up miselims here. this seems a very strange concern for self, though hey, it wouldnt be the first strange self-concern voiced today.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #119) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:02 pm

Post by mc esther »

town just loses if you miselim within six today, assuming you go on to miselim me next (and even the alternative, further large-group elims, is pretty bad). three-group literally needs to happen today fmpov.

kinda p-edit: obvs i do six at deadline if std/etc. wont flip, but i'll be mad about it lmao. imo stubbornly insisting on six is really suspicious here (though again, very much fmpov), so im maybe kinda back on std over dwlee.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #120) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:11 pm

Post by mc esther »

idk maybe it's just being ignored because, "why answer questions from maf", but i'll post it once more
In post 848, mc esther wrote:inno, pretending youre town for a sec, when did you start actually believing that the team is me/dunn (as opposed to, merely pushing it for reactions)?
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Post Post #905 (isolation #121) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

i almost feel stupid repeating it because it's a bit of a softball question really, but eh cant delete it now ive posted it
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Post Post #907 (isolation #122) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:17 pm

Post by mc esther »

neither instance of "you" refers to something im likely to do. im not voting six today (i dont think we'll hit deadline) and im not self-hammering in yeelo.
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Post Post #909 (isolation #123) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:20 pm

Post by mc esther »

okay we're five days from deadline maybe im wrong about that first part.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #124) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:23 pm

Post by mc esther »

we lose yeelo if im alive for it, like, im clearly the miselim there, is my point
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Post Post #913 (isolation #125) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:26 pm

Post by mc esther »

lmao, elim within five wont be correct. there's literally no consensus there.
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Post Post #916 (isolation #126) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:27 pm

Post by mc esther »

tbh, i definitely think i can flip a few players around to viewing me as town. i dont think those players will be around for yeelo.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #127) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:51 pm

Post by mc esther »

i dont understand any view on dwlee as maf other than "and inno's obviously their buddy". look at the votecount lmao.
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Post Post #925 (isolation #128) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:52 pm

Post by mc esther »

dwlee clearly isnt bussing me here
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Post Post #928 (isolation #129) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:55 pm

Post by mc esther »

yes? i didnt say i believe dwlee is definitely maf, im talking about the people who believe that — imo their scumread on me is incoherent, they need to pick one
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Post Post #929 (isolation #130) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:56 pm

Post by mc esther »

it could be, i guess youll need to lim small to find out.
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Post Post #931 (isolation #131) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:58 pm

Post by mc esther »

am i pinging you so hard that it makes you doubt the dwlee read?
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Post Post #933 (isolation #132) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:01 pm

Post by mc esther »

okay, so im town then?
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Post Post #935 (isolation #133) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:05 pm

Post by mc esther »

do you really believe dwlee is bussing me here? when i called this near-impossible earlier, you didnt take explicit issue with that.
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Post Post #939 (isolation #134) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:09 pm

Post by mc esther »

if you think this is a plausible bus i am terrified of ever being on the same scumteam as you.
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Post Post #947 (isolation #135) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:20 pm

Post by mc esther »

how the fuck does maf!dwlee win if their buddy dies today?
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Post Post #951 (isolation #136) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:24 pm

Post by mc esther »

yeah, okay, i clearly just disagree with dwlee at a strategic level. i'd go six-group in dwlee's position, but they explicitly said otherwise.
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Post Post #954 (isolation #137) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:25 pm

Post by mc esther »

ebwop: in maf!dwlee's position
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Post Post #968 (isolation #138) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:51 pm

Post by mc esther »

"wouldnt shoot his story partner" is a meme read, right?
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Post Post #973 (isolation #139) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:03 pm

Post by mc esther »

i cant get behind the inno/dunn team at all. i think in this world, dunn would push for small-group elimination to "clear" himself. he's instead been pretty opposed to it.
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Post Post #983 (isolation #140) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:52 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 979, Brighter Puppy wrote:Thoughts?
i think if you really believe that me and inno both have such strong associations attached to us, you want a small-group elim
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Post Post #993 (isolation #141) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:07 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 989, Dwlee99 wrote:I think maybe IV should be flipped
wait, i think there are numbers of this now? dwlee/esther/prism/dunn?
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Post Post #999 (isolation #142) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:17 pm

Post by mc esther »

i look forward to arguing with firebringer some more
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #143) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:45 pm

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iv/dwlee is fine to me afaicr; i was opposed to it earlier but dwlee (lmao) told me im wrong.

i dont think that dwlee wouldnt have a path to victory if they bussed me today. the only real way i see to explain the bus would be "we're so heavily losing here that we may as well gamble on a high-risk strategy"; but even this doesnt really work, in this world i would hammer dwlee for the same reason.
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #144) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:46 pm

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should say, "i dont think that dwlee would"; idk how the double negative slipped in there
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Post Post #1007 (isolation #145) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:55 pm

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dwlee said earlier that if they were my buddy and bussed me, they'd win by pushing dunn and std. i dont think this is realistic, but it makes it hard to make this sort of call -- dwlee and i disagree on so many fundamental things like this that i cant really put myself in their head in order to make this sort of case.

p-edit: huh, okay, yeah i guess i wouldnt. does that make dwlee literally my only possible buddy? like, a few people have said that i probably hammer town!dwlee there, so if im maf, does that also make dwlee maf?
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #146) » Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:05 pm

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unfortunately, at least two players dont really believe my townflip clears dunn, otherwise three-group flip would be amazingly informative right now.
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Post Post #1013 (isolation #147) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:53 am

Post by mc esther »

i think iv expected to coast by today lmao
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #148) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:10 am

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In post 77, innocentvillager wrote:i think we should kill in group of 3 first
In post 88, innocentvillager wrote:i get that killing the scum in the group of 6 is autowin but i feel it's just so unlikely

i feel like killing in group of 3 first is better because we are higher chance to hit scum earlier. we are guaranteed even we completely suck and kill two townies d1,d2 to kill scum at 2 v 3 then turns into a f3 elo. By that point we'll have associatives to look back on. We're basically guaranteed a flip if we focus our attention on the the g3.
In post 91, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 83, Dwlee99 wrote:If I don't correctly read IV this game I should probably end up BoP'd
VOTE: dwlee99
In post 97, innocentvillager wrote:i feel as though killing in group of 6 is a waste of time and we are gambling too hard. if we hit town we are not much closer to solving that group. i think someone would need to be really scummy or the group of 3 would have to be really hard for us to not want to go group of 3.
In post 295, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: dunnstral
this point's already been litigated, but i think there's some detail missing
In post 296, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 238, Prism wrote:IV, why are you currently voting in the group of 6?
honestly i did forget i was voting dwlee who i think is town i blame pav's unreadable vc color (n.o seems like im the only one with this issue)

also idgaf about the group of 6/3 thing rly rn, i loosely prefer g3 because im in it but i don't want to get caught up in it anymore
doesnt even bother discussing his dunn vote lmao. i dont really buy "dgaf about the group of 6/3 thing" as an explanation, given earlier stronger phrases like "so unlikely" and "waste of time"; sure, i believe he didnt care in the sense that he didnt view it as worth arguing about, i believe that he didnt care in the sense that he'd vote six if the only viable wagon he liked was in the six. but neither of those things are relevant factors for these votes. this also ties in with my later/earlier (depending on where we're counting from, lmao) observation about his me/dunn solve -- which is the one place where his "someone would need to be really scummy" condition would actually kick in as a reason to vote six, but is the only place where he acted in accordance with his stated beliefs about voting three (when prompted lmao).
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Post Post #1048 (isolation #149) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:54 pm

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In post 1033, Prism wrote:It's unclear to me why you go to bat for me right now, though, when that topic of discussion isn't really even on the table.
i stayed out of it at the time because i didnt want to step on your, i guess, interrogation (and also, i kinda think you were hinting at this anyway), but. i figure that inno's whole "prism is obviously town" thing is him piggybacking off my earlier scumread to try and make prism look worse post-flip.
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #150) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:06 pm

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In post 781, innocentvillager wrote:{prism} - Prism's confident bloodthirst for Todoroki yesterday was weird and putting him back at E1 was bad too. Yes it wasn't actually E1 but he thought it was functionally. im not gonna pretend to know prism meta inside and out but meta-wise everything else the slot has done seems tonally townie though. im not as confident here as puppy and it feels more likely he was just tunneled on todo.
In post 1027, innocentvillager wrote:prism is obvtown and anyone who thinks he’s scum at this point is just bad
did something change between these two statements? #781 doesnt read "obv to the point where literally nobody should consider the alternative" to me.
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Post Post #1056 (isolation #151) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:13 pm

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In post 1050, innocentvillager wrote:I wouldn't say coast but yeah I wasn't expecting such a big fight from you. Regardless you gave me a challenging 1v1 experience that I'll never forget, so thanks for that at least <3
fr i wanna be same-alignment with you some time, youre fun.

i question you because i figure the only way you get scumread is if you fumble some questions. perhaps i shouldve stated these points more assertively as cases so that you'd feel more pressured in responding to them; but, i dont think that would work, i think even the people townreading me tend to view my cases as, bad (which, idk, probably means they are!) and you could comfortably ignore them for that reason. you kinda did this when i raised the inconsistent attitude in your d1 play, and the inconsistency within that inconsistency; you just, say there's no real case, because you figure i havent brought enough new to the point to make people reconsider it. even now, im talking to you because i want to make you engage on my terms, i think that's how you slip up. and i think youre correct to largely deny me this, youre the one with something to lose if we engage in dialogue, even at this point in the game, dwlee isnt that sure. and there's always the chance that puppy or std (regardless of alignment) comes in to save you even if dwlee is on-path to flipping more definitively (puppy especially just, doesnt believe that my approach here is a town approach).

and fuck, i wont lie. yes i want to be townread lmao, ofc i do things to look town here.
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #152) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:31 pm

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In post 1057, Brighter Puppy wrote:Esther are you one of those newbie mafia prodigy’s that sometimes makes life hell for experienced town players. Lmao.
omg im really being showered with compliments all of a sudden. no, i used to play a half-decade back, but i was very bad then. i think im somewhat better now (largely because im less arrogant and do a better job of keeping tilt out of my play), though my cases havent really improved, ive just learned when to sheep players/consensus (which is, like, why ive largely dropped the prism scumread -- i still on some level "believe" it, but i also know from experience that if everyone thinks im wrong, im probably wrong, even when i cant see why). there's something of an exception for my townreads, i think theyre often quite good even when theyre anti-consensus (you can see this in the coalition, where i townread mbot early, though i later retract the read when she makes some weird votes -- i think, in context, this was a clear mistake for me to learn from).
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Post Post #1086 (isolation #153) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:32 pm

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sure, ive been pretty scant on calling an agenda (as opposed to, picking on discrepancies in his play, which ive done a little more but have not been able to link into a coherent agenda), but it's not totally absent from my posting.
In post 1013, mc esther wrote:i think iv expected to coast by today lmao
In post 1048, mc esther wrote:i figure that inno's whole "prism is obviously town" thing is him piggybacking off my earlier scumread to try and make prism look worse post-flip.
when i directly address inno in that way that continues to ping puppy, despite the literal meaning of the text, he's not actually the only person im talking to. i know there's a whole thread of people reading lmao.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #154) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:34 pm

Post by mc esther »

ive only got two completed games on-site and one of them's relatively short, so i shouldnt be too difficult to meta. i can self-meta if you want but i dont think you want.
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Post Post #1090 (isolation #155) » Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:47 pm

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that was largely at prism, he's repeatedly talked about wanting to meta me. unfortunately for him, the scumgame of the pair is multiball, though the pt has enough commentary that it probably helps separate my "genuinely working with town to catch the enemy faction" posts from the "being disingenuous because i am maf" ones.
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Post Post #1099 (isolation #156) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:42 pm

Post by mc esther »

omg no dont steal my multiposting it wont make you town
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Post Post #1105 (isolation #157) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:40 pm

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my recent posts probably feel scummy because theyre a lot less directly game-related (although i wasnt entirely kidding with that last one!). i agree with the sentiment that the game's kinda starting to stall out.
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #158) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:09 pm

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if we must vote six (i.e., deadline), i only really want to vote dwlee (lmao). i'd vote std if he were the only viable wagon. dunn is my strongest townread after puppy and consensus-prism, idk if im quite at "would literally rather let a no-elim go through than vote", but that's the way im leaning rn.

from what i can tell though, people are flipping from six to three rather than vice-versa, so this is probably a moot point.
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #159) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:11 pm

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im pretty sure ive repeatedly said that i consider iv/dunn impossible?
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Post Post #1114 (isolation #160) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:16 pm

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the only vaguely plausible thing about iv/dunn is that they were the two players willing to indulge in my prism scumread (before iv went back to "no he's 100% town fuck off lol"). this does not at all, to me, outweigh my belief that there was maf on the wagon, i think dunn's just wrong.
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #161) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:17 pm

Post by mc esther »

In post 1130, Brighter Puppy wrote:It needs to be said that i often read people based on emotions.
do you agree with iv's "too calm" read on me? because idk lol i think it's pretty obvious why im so calm about this.
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #162) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:40 pm

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In post 1158, Brighter Puppy wrote:The most i get is waffling and not commital reads. Which spoiler alert is like everyone in this game?
i dont think this is everyone in the game? it's not prism, it's not you, it's not std. it's not even really me (hard dunn, hard you, hard todoroki, but fair i can see how hard iv is an exception).
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Post Post #1167 (isolation #163) » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:39 pm

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i might just stay bad at the game if the alternative is entering this pit of eternal despair
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #164) » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:14 pm

Post by mc esther »

i can be around to make sure a dwlee (or i guess std but im pretty sure it'll be dwlee) wagon goes through at deadline if we cant reach three-group consensus. ive thought on the whole "but dunnstral is very definitely town thing" further, and eh, i probably dont really "get" to be an asshole and refuse to deadline hammer here, so okay. im also just, less concerned than i was earlier in the day that im the "guaranteed" miselim; i'd still rather get our pool sorted today rather than tomorrow, we're a pretty fucking dicey yeelo, but im no longer feeling "yeah lol we literally autolose to my d1 play if we get the six-group elimination wrong, i simply cant vote there".
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #165) » Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 pm

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In post 1216, Brighter Puppy wrote:
In post 1215, Dunnstral wrote:I'd really prefer to vote between Dwlee/Save the Dragons, as I believe that one of those two is the mafia in the group of 6
WOW.

THIS IS REVOLUTIONARY.
does the sarcasm indicate "and he would usually give more as town"? because, like, i dont think "basic" or whatever posts are alignment-indicative in themself.
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Post Post #1236 (isolation #166) » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:45 am

Post by mc esther »

imma hammer in ~eight hours. kinda hoping dwlee makes a survivalistic vote on iv here and we can still get three-group, but idk, im guessing that theyll flip to me.
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Post Post #1260 (isolation #167) » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:22 pm

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i cannot see any reason to flip dunnstral before flipping three-group, even if your opinion is generally in favour of eliminating within six. why would you not want to check that association before committing to the read? ik prism and std dont really believe the assoc is that strong, but theyre not the ones voting him. puppy does, so their vote is simply misplaced according to their own beliefs (like, if im maf over iv, and dunn is maf over everyone else in his group, then you very obviously start by flipping the player whose flip potentially clears the other); though i'll admit im not sure dwlee ever weighed in on this.
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Post Post #1263 (isolation #168) » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:26 pm

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puppy's probably going to forget the association, say it's bad, make me re-iterate it, agree for like the third time, but still not change their vote because theyve stubbornly tunnelled themself into six-group
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Post Post #1268 (isolation #169) » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:47 pm

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In post 1260, mc esther wrote:i cannot see any reason to flip dunnstral before flipping three-group
following up on this and the next post: i guess town!me/maf!dunn is a coherent belief which might lead you to vote dunn over three-group, but dwlee's the only one who's explicitly entertained those reads (and in very uncertain terms)

on a not-really-related note: dwlee seems hella survivalistic here, it feels like theyre just chasing whatever wagon isnt them -- theyve been open to voting both me and iv, and now things are turning on dunn, seem really set on dunn.
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Post Post #1281 (isolation #170) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:45 am

Post by mc esther »

sleeping. i'll be on a little before deadline.
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Post Post #1282 (isolation #171) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:52 am

Post by mc esther »

about two hours before and sure i guess i'll hammer whatever's necessary. prefer to hammer inno or myself over six-group.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #172) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:55 am

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(although i somehow doubt the thread's gonna deadlock and give me a choice in hammer lmao)
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Post Post #1308 (isolation #173) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:42 am

Post by mc esther »

woke up, cant get back to sleep, people on? getting worried puppy's just checked out lmao.

idk what to make of dwlee rn. strong reaction. felt fake initially, but the frustration that i never said shit about it seems real.
In post 1276, Dwlee99 wrote:Oh nooo Dwlee wasn't dead set in their reads in three how HORRID
also i intuitively like this because i made much the same comment for kinda the same reasons in #479

and um wow p-edit okay that was not someone i expected to see on inno like hi thanks but what
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Post Post #1311 (isolation #174) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:50 am

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okay, yay, pubpy. but. is there more? have things changed so little that, that's it?
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Post Post #1320 (isolation #175) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:04 am

Post by mc esther »

dw puppy im town
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Post Post #1322 (isolation #176) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:06 am

Post by mc esther »

honestly i considered the fakeclaim but after catching everyone's mood the past few pages it felt a little mean
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Post Post #1328 (isolation #177) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:34 am

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omg if i'd known nobody was gonna believe me i wouldve just gone with the mafclaim anyway. i was gonna fake-gloat about how good my scumgame was, it was gonna be so much fun.
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Post Post #1331 (isolation #178) » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:36 am

Post by mc esther »

i'll be pretty embarrassed if i get left alive but it totally could happen :/
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