Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

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Post Post #37 (isolation #0) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:52 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Lukewarm preset the account to maftigers for me

That, AND I got a hood with IV?

Off to a good start.
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Post Post #53 (isolation #1) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:10 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Why does everyone say I’m difficult to read

I also would have picked Dunn instead of someone random if I was scum tbh

Or fire

Someone cool but also *actually* hard to read
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Post Post #54 (isolation #2) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:10 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Since when is IV tricky to read

Did he graduate too
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Post Post #59 (isolation #3) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by Todoroki »

I’m gonna call fire town because I’m pocketed

Ninja
-
Hi IV<3
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Post Post #70 (isolation #4) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:15 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Oh shit if that’s all we have to do I’m town too
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Post Post #79 (isolation #5) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:17 pm

Post by Todoroki »

You’re right Dunn I clearly haven’t put a ton of thought into the setup other than selfish wish who I’m with so I’m probably town for not thinking of the optimal answer

Nice talk
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Post Post #103 (isolation #6) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:36 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 82, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 79, Todoroki wrote:You’re right Dunn I clearly haven’t put a ton of thought into the setup other than selfish wish who I’m with so I’m probably town for not thinking of the optimal answer

Nice talk
Why answer like this instead of answering the question
In a situation with me and IV, having a known (albeit tricky to read) quantity puts me in a better position. At least was my initial thought, however as I said I haven’t really given the placement a ton of thought other than finding it curious I’m paired with IV in the first place.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #7) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:42 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Hey, I was in a previous running of this game.

There ended up being a lot of discussion on which hood to kill in first. After lots and lots of back and forth mech talk, it was decided that killing in the big hood first is better. Despite that, we killed scum in the small hood day one, and then proceeded to lose the game.

I don't remember all of the math on why it is better, but that was Bingle's final conclusion, and I trust Bingle's set up spec better then my own anyways.

Spoiler:
I know, I know. Bingle was scum that game.

But then he stood by it in the ghost chat, and he also said it in the original run of this set up, he had the same conclusion



So, would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!
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Post Post #106 (isolation #8) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:45 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Yeah, give me a sec
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Post Post #110 (isolation #9) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:51 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 105, mc esther wrote:can you link to the game?
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=86547
^ second run of the game, me norwee and Dunn were all in it
Killed mafia day one, mafia win

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=86273
^ original run of the game norwee was in it (norwee must really like this set up lol)
Day 1 town win, killed mafia in big hood.
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Post Post #113 (isolation #10) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:54 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 109, Brighter Puppy wrote:did scum put more thought into beta group than other groups with the same line of thinking i had? (harder to read players in beta and rest go to alpha
Scum Bingle put himself, Norwee, and Not_Mafia in the small hood.

So, probably. Norwee and Notmafia are both miselimed pretty often.

But, then Bingle decided to basically get himself eliminated day 1. His strategy was too big brain for me.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #11) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:58 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Tbh Luke told me about bingles post and I read it but clearly didn’t digest it so it might not be as concerning as you think
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Post Post #123 (isolation #12) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:05 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Spoiler alert: I’m at the top
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Post Post #136 (isolation #13) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:20 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 130, Kuriyama wrote:I find it more concerning tbh that norwee didn't think to tell you about his past experiences as town in this setup.
One explanation would be that he finally rolled scum in this setup, hence he didn't think his past town experiences would really be applicable or useful.
I feel like Norwee would have been More likely to have explained the day 1 town win if they were scum. Because they would have had too sort the hoods. Instantly becomes a thing they have to consider.
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Post Post #145 (isolation #14) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:43 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 144, mc esther wrote:i liked the questions, i like that he got town strategy wrong despite having played before.
Can you explain this?
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Post Post #147 (isolation #15) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:46 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 145, Todoroki wrote:
In post 144, mc esther wrote:i liked the questions, i like that he got town strategy wrong despite having played before.
Can you explain this?
Not the questions part. The strategy part.
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Post Post #150 (isolation #16) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:49 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 148, mc esther wrote:i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.
I am still not sure what you are saying.

His first post about which hood we should shoot in was the "correct' mech conclusion.

Do you mean you giving him town points because his rvs vote was in the small hood?
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Post Post #153 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:57 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 151, Brighter Puppy wrote:Notsci don't u think u hunting in beta group is waste of time.
WE GOT SCUM IN ALPHA TO CATCH AND I NEED UR THOUGHTS THERE

don't distract
Hello, I am Lukewarm.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #18) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:57 pm

Post by Todoroki »

This is hydra erasure
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Post Post #184 (isolation #19) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:54 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 157, Kuriyama wrote:
In post 153, Todoroki wrote:Hello, I am Lukewarm.
Hi Lukewarm,

do you have any thoughts about who is town/scum in the Large Hood?
Nothing strong.

Vaguely thought that if there was scum in the you + puppy interaction, it would be you. But as a whole it looked t/t.

But we also have not even heard from Save the Dragons or Prism yet.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #20) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:58 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 166, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 104, Todoroki wrote:Hey, I was in a previous running of this game.

There ended up being a lot of discussion on which hood to kill in first. After lots and lots of back and forth mech talk, it was decided that killing in the big hood first is better. Despite that, we killed scum in the small hood day one, and then proceeded to lose the game.

I don't remember all of the math on why it is better, but that was Bingle's final conclusion, and I trust Bingle's set up spec better then my own anyways.

Spoiler:
I know, I know. Bingle was scum that game.

But then he stood by it in the ghost chat, and he also said it in the original run of this set up, he had the same conclusion



So, would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!
Interesting, I’m down to just follow it even if it feels a bit wrong to me.

also fwiw I think this comes from town!NS unless he’s confident that people are going to bring it up. Either that or it’s scum!NS who wants people to kill in the 6 first for whatever reason. But it seems like in general he believes that town should kill in the 6 so if he’s scum it should be bad for him to reinforce town optimal strategy when he could’ve just let us bicker about it more
Hello, I am Lukewarm.

But also, I don't think this is a good reason to town read us. Almost certain I would have said we should elim in the big hood as scum. Especially since there are two other players in this game that were in that game with me.

I am town, but please find a better reason to call me town. Thanks!
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Post Post #186 (isolation #21) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:14 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 174, Dwlee99 wrote:(1/6) + (5/6)(1/4)(1/3 + 1/3) + (5/6)(3/4)(1/2)(1/3) =~ 41%

I want the beta route
I asked nicely for us to skip the mech back and forth.

The math is very slightly better to kill in the small pool first,
if all shots are made at random.


But, there are other factors. Killing scum day 1 in the big hood wins the game, so scum can never bus into the big hood. But they can bus into the small hood. Meaning, if we are killing in the small hood day 1, the information we gain from associatives is not as good.

Also, if we kill into the small hood, and hit scum day 1, then the scum that is left gets to do two no info kills in a row. So, the literal best case scenario for killing in the small hood is a 1v5 mountainous game where the scum team does not kill anyone until the night before elo. (this is how my last game played out.)

Vs best case scenario of killing in the big hood - which is an auto win. And even if we miss in the big hood, night kills and associatives are stronger.

So, math wise, killing in the small hood is a +4% EV when shot at random, but shooting in the big hood results in better information to solve with, meaning we will not be shooting at random.

This is the exact discussion that Bingle and Vander had day 1 of the last game on where to shoot.
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Post Post #191 (isolation #22) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:00 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 185, Todoroki wrote:I am town, but please find a better reason to call me town. Thanks!
In post 186, Todoroki wrote:I asked nicely for us to skip the mech back and forth.
Both of these are me making jokes.

I am not upset by either thing.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #23) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:08 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 190, innocentvillager wrote:-I disagree with the "best case scenario being a 1v5 mountainous" because this ignores the fact that we get a 1/6 shot in scum the day before that.
I am including that 1 in 6 shot.

If we kill mafia in the small hood day 1, then the game becomes a mountainous game for the small hood. 6 players. 1v5. / But the scum team is not killing anyone until the night before elo, because they will be killing off the two confirmed townies first.
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Post Post #193 (isolation #24) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:09 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 190, innocentvillager wrote:-also 4% EV is a LOT imo lol
-
It seems close enough that maybe we should just sort everyone and have everyone on the table for today
Is 4% EV a LOT, or is it close enough that we should just ignore it? lol
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Post Post #243 (isolation #25) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:45 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Hey guys, running a fever and slept for the last several hours, and all I want to do is go back to sleep.. Probably going to leave the reigns of this hydra to Marci's capable hands.
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Post Post #244 (isolation #26) » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:46 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 243, Todoroki wrote:Hey guys, running a fever and slept for the last several hours, and all I want to do is go back to sleep.. Probably going to leave the reigns of this hydra to
Marci's
Notty's capable hands.
Sorry.
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Post Post #339 (isolation #27) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:12 am

Post by Todoroki »

In my defense I’m way busier now than I ever used to be, Katniss

I’ll be here more on lunch.

I’ll make sure to say something dumb so Prism can condescend ;)
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Post Post #341 (isolation #28) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:55 am

Post by Todoroki »

Hello friends, my fever has broken, and I have returned. Have we solved the game yet?
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Post Post #342 (isolation #29) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:56 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 246, Save The Dragons wrote:Feel better soon, VOTE: todoroki
Rude lol
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Post Post #343 (isolation #30) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:19 am

Post by Todoroki »

I’m townreading IV, kuriyama, and puppy.

Maybe STD. His vote is bad.
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Post Post #344 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:19 am

Post by Todoroki »

^notty is the last one Luke’s the other ones
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Post Post #345 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:19 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 272, Prism wrote:FWIW I am looking forward to the next chapter of Captain Slade & Doctor Zhiv
Your hood sounds better then mine.

Our is hardly being used out side of me asking everyone which hood they would have put themselves in if they were scum.

mc esther: small hood, because its "harder" and because she sees herself as good at getting town read.
IV: would depend on his partner, but would not have put himself and Notty together in the small hood.
Luke: I said that looking at the playerlist, I would put myself into the large hood unless my partner was exactly Dunn or Prism.
Notty: Agreed with me.

Then IV asked me what me and notty were saying about everyone's answers in out hydra chat.

And basically, I said that MC Esther's answer did not line up with how I would have expected a scum chat to go. Because, I would have expected the first thing that they would have discussed would have been the day 1 loss possibility, and needing to avoid that. So, seeing her describe the smaller hood as "harder" and that she would go there because she is "good at getting town read" felt to me like she had not been in a scum chat discussion on the sorts.

IV's answer did not give me much, but Notty agreed that he did not think that IV would have put himself into the small hood with Notty.

And that's basically it for our hood.

Spoiler:
Other then asking MC is she was an alt


While I have been away from the game, there has basically been no discussion happening in there.
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Post Post #348 (isolation #33) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:24 am

Post by Todoroki »

Congratulations!
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Post Post #350 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:27 am

Post by Todoroki »

Puppy why should I vote Dunn
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Post Post #353 (isolation #35) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:30 am

Post by Todoroki »

I mean he’s not giving me good vibes or he’d be in the top

That just feels like Dunn questions

You wouldn’t vote out a fish for swimming
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Post Post #355 (isolation #36) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:38 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 301, innocentvillager wrote:{dwlee, fire, prism}
{std, kuriyama?}
{todoroki}
{rest}
IV, what would you call the line that we are on? Null? Lean scum?
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Post Post #357 (isolation #37) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:39 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 354, Kuriyama wrote:
In post 346, Prism wrote:I will not be here today. I just got my first acceptance into law school.

I do not have words to express. I am overwhelmed. I have worked towards this every day for over two years, with nothing else in mind. So much of why I have kept playing, and why I play so intensely, was tied to this.

Thanks to everyone that has put up with me the last two years.
Congratulations!
+1

Congrats Prism!
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Post Post #360 (isolation #38) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:47 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 313, Kuriyama wrote:I would be so disappointed if Dunnstral was scum and decided to ghost this game
This is my exact thought about Dunn this game
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Post Post #367 (isolation #39) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:35 am

Post by Todoroki »

You’re a towel
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Post Post #376 (isolation #40) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:00 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 369, Kuriyama wrote:
In post 345, Todoroki wrote:Luke: I said that looking at the playerlist, I would put myself into the large hood unless my partner was exactly Dunn or Prism.

Why Dunnstral?

I was thinking nobody would ever put Dunnstral in as large hood scum because he's so limbaity and not even playing?..
When I have actually encountered scum!Dunn, I was super impressed. Like he walked out of day 1 near universally town read, and was my number 1 town read.

I think that Dunn gets scum read a lot as town, but when he is actually scum its not the case. That is basically the same reason I agreed with you that him ghosting this game makes me lean town on him.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #41) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:03 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 371, Kuriyama wrote:
In post 350, Todoroki wrote:Puppy why should I vote Dunn
It feels weird to me that you have a town-read on IV but you aren't trying to push for Esther elim - she is at E-2 currently.
1) I still think shooting in the large hood is better

2) Notty is leaning town on IV, but I am less convinced.

-Luke, even though you were originally questioning a Notty post.
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Post Post #379 (isolation #42) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:15 am

Post by Todoroki »

>.<

I am not used to not just blurting all of my own thoughts out into the thread, but Notty specifically said he wanted to wait until he got a chance to look at a couple isos again.

Hydra'ing is new to me - I don't want to step on his toes.
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Post Post #381 (isolation #43) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:21 am

Post by Todoroki »

STD, you have actually been my scum partner before. What could possibly make you think that this is my scum game?
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Post Post #383 (isolation #44) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:23 am

Post by Todoroki »

:(
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Post Post #386 (isolation #45) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:32 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 384, Save The Dragons wrote:from being
scum
in a hydra
I have zero completed games in a hydra.

I think that being in this hydra is also limiting to what I put in the thread, because like in my catch up, I was pointing out posts in our hydra chat vs dropping them directly into the main thread.
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Post Post #389 (isolation #46) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:40 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 385, Prism wrote:...Can you be more specific as to why this isn't your scumgame?

I am assuming this is Lukewarm, I thought a few other posts were notscience welp
Notty and I have both made posts today.

As for my scum game, I guess I feel like I would just have already done more as scum? Like, I have been 1000% super try hard in every scum game I have played, and actively aimed to be the number one poster in all of those games (don't normally win, some people can reach unbelievable posting levels, but I general get pretty up there)

And I just haven't been here this game.

And like, yeah I was sick, but pretty sure that as scum I would not have been able to stay away - and I would also be pushing Notty to post more.

Which, this is not like a super identifier, because I mostly try hard as town too, but I always try extra hard as scum.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #47) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:46 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 387, Prism wrote:I'm kind of halfassing while killing time, will chew on 345 but I don't really see why you would be a lock for large group. You got better in Guardians but your confidence is definitely not there to single carry yet.
My thinking was that who ever went into the large pool should be the person most likely to dodge a day 1 elimination. I think that me and notty would be pretty good at that. The only people that I thought I would just trust to be better then this dynamic duo would be you or Dunn.

You are also not thinking about this game the same way I am, if you expect the scum in the large pool would be a single carry?

Based on my own experience with this set up, and reading the game before that, I still think that we should be killing in the large pool first.

So, even if you and other people who disagree with me push for it to go the other way, that is how I was thinking about the game when I answered that question.
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Post Post #397 (isolation #48) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:12 am

Post by Todoroki »

What are you talking about? That decision would have nothing to do with who I would be worried about being a good scum hunter in that scenario. I was comparing potential partners.

If I was partnered with, say STD, yeah. I would think that he was more likely to get eliminated then me day 1. Put myself into 6, std into 3. Same with Norwee. Same with Dwlee. I have seen each of them get scum read super early.

But if partnered with you or dunn, I would have handed off the 6 p to one of you.

(Never encountered IV, Kuriyama, or MC before, so I guess each of them would be more of a conversation in the Night 0).

-----

You are talking past what I am actually saying.

If I was partnered with (fill in the blank from above), I would place myself in the 6 p hood. ---- And then I would be constantly panicking in the scum chat that I was sure that X was going to figure me out.

But that does not stop me from spotting that I have seen them get scum read day 1, and so far I have been fairly town read early on in my scum games.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #49) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:16 am

Post by Todoroki »

And that is nothing bad about the people I mentioned. In my game with STD, he was really scum read day 1, but we managed to wiggle out of his elimination day 1, and then he won in end game (as he mentioned, I bussed him hard on my way out).

But that would affect my thoughts on the hood sort.
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Post Post #401 (isolation #50) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:26 am

Post by Todoroki »

I have never been eliminated day 1 in any game as either alignment. -- So yes, I trust my own ability to dodge day 1.

When I am not actively panicking in the heat of the moment during a game (when I think that I am actually the worst player ever), I am aware of these things.

I don't think I would sign up to be a single carry, because I don't have that long term confidence, but I do generally think of myself as hard to eliminate.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #51) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:39 am

Post by Todoroki »

Maybe I am a big dummy, but I cannot parse out what 403 means x.x
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Post Post #408 (isolation #52) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:53 am

Post by Todoroki »

The "when not actively panicking" line was because I thought your point about my lack of confidence as scum was in reference to the moment in that game you modded where I was actively panicking and saying that I was terrible at this game in the scum chat. I was saying that that moment is not a good reference to how I feel about my scum game.

----

If you want to talk in generals, these are the general thoughts that lead me to making that statement about the sort

"If I were scum, I would have sorted to avoid a day 1 auto loss"
+
"I am pretty good at dodging a day 1 elimination" (I have never been eliminated day 1 in any game as either alignment)
->
"I would probably suggest I take the 6p hood unless I thought the other scum player was better at dodging day 1 then I am"
->
"Prism and Dunn are the only people I see on the list I would off hand think that about"
->
"I would probably put myself into the 6 p hood, unless my partner was exactly Prism or Dunn"

And that was the extent of my thoughts going into my answer.
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Post Post #409 (isolation #53) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:55 am

Post by Todoroki »

It just feels like I am being told that my own real thoughts are impossible for me to have had, and so here I am.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #54) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:56 am

Post by Todoroki »

But then you are going into who that would make be the end game scum, or who that would have me in a hood with, or who I would be worried about scum hunting me -- and literally none of that factored into my answer.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #55) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:00 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 411, Prism wrote:That is still a ridiculous amount of conditionals and I am skeptical of several, again in particular 2 and 4.
You don't think that I think that I am hard to eliminate?

Is that something that you think that I would lie about as scum?
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Post Post #416 (isolation #56) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:05 am

Post by Todoroki »

Oh god, this has caused an intense desire for me to of through my past games and compile all of the times that I have said that I am hard to eliminate.

That would probably not be a worthy use of my time, but god the temptation is there.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #57) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:06 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 415, Prism wrote:Yes.
Why would scum!Luke need to lie about how he felt about his own eliminability? This seems like such a useless place to choose to lie.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #58) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:19 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 575, Servant Archer wrote:I personally feel like I am a pretty hard person to push out in almost every game I have played.
The same post goes on to talk about specifics for that game, like how many town reads I had, but here is me saying that I am a hard person to push out in almost every game. I am sure there are others, because I know I have mentioned it a few times, but this one was the first one I remembered a specific game that it came up in.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #59) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:34 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 423, Brighter Puppy wrote:Todoroki who are you again? Since you keep being nonmislimmable day 1 or whatever.

- Norwee
Lukewarm

We have played a couple of games together. A random newbie game, the second run of this set up, and then unwnd's Gensokyo upick
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Post Post #428 (isolation #60) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:45 am

Post by Todoroki »

No, I had made the signature, but forgot to change the setting to make it actually post. Until you asked, and I realized that it was not there.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #61) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:49 am

Post by Todoroki »

Pretty sure that was actually Norwee being snarky at me because he thought I was calling him bad at the game.

Sorry to you and anyone else who took it that way.
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Post Post #447 (isolation #62) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:56 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 431, Brighter Puppy wrote:Notscience… That’s the slot that everyone said was scum in Smugglers Port, but i was the lone voice that said they were town. But then they did end up flipping scum…
Oh god, that’s not boding well.

- Norwee
I stopped trying after the 1v1 with kuribo

Regardless, you have more recent meta with me. Pooky vs FL- I was in the hydra that died N1.
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Post Post #448 (isolation #63) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:00 pm

Post by Todoroki »

I was also cobra Kai in haunted village but iirc you replaced out of that day one.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #64) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:32 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Yeah, probably about time to throw in the towel. I told you guys we should have put Dunn and prism over in the small hood.
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Post Post #453 (isolation #65) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:33 pm

Post by Todoroki »

I do not feel like playing along, but Puppy is unironically my strongest town read

-Luke

pedit:notty did want to play along lol
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Post Post #458 (isolation #66) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:04 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 455, Kuriyama wrote:I am very tempted to put you at E-1 because this continued baiting seems entirely pointless if you're actually town here.
C’mon now, I expect better.

Dwlee is a not_mafia alt confirmed (For legal reasons I must state that is a joke)
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Post Post #461 (isolation #67) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:11 pm

Post by Todoroki »

I mean if we’re talking about people breaking expectations a reach out from you is about the last thing I ever expected to see posted

If I can call it a reach out? I dunno. It should be obvious why I can’t play my normal way, but I digress.

I think you’re attributing a lack of paranoia about Dunn which I don’t think I ever said I didn’t suspect him? Just felt like puppy’s push was NAI and it was Dunn asking Dunn questions. Dwlee is absolutely forgettable which is how he was in Pokémon too.

I’m still townreading STD even though his vote sucks and he doesn’t have the requisite experience with me for me to BoP him with, but just from his posting and the descriptions of him in the hood I’m fine writing him off as town

I’m townreading puppy based off some of the reads they’ve shared reminding me of Norwees thought process from Pooky v FL

Do I need to explain kuriyama or can y’all just iso and figure that out?

As for IV/Esther, I’m leaning IV town and yes IV is in the strong part of my reads, you’re right! But it is by no means a lock and I wanted to look into some things first.

Ninja-
Dawww that’s so nice of you

Inb4 revote after this post
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Post Post #462 (isolation #68) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Now I just got back from the gym so I’m gonna shower if I could be alive after that would be great
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Post Post #475 (isolation #69) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:37 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 474, mc esther wrote:i do agree that todoroki looks kinda like scum who had assumed we'd yeet from 6 first and is now going "oh shit this really wasnt the plan" (im actually not sure anyone's explicitly framed it this way but i think someone hinted at it). i dont really understand prism's "practically a scumclaim" that he saw in todoroki's post, i think this mightve been an exaggeration?

im not really on-board with the consensus innocentvillager townread -- mostly because he very clearly doesnt believe the solve he's pushing. i think he's town because he looks townier than todoroki and only one of them is scum; but no i very much dont think there's any "yeah these posts have to come from town" in his iso.
People think we're scum and posts like this exist, lmao
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Post Post #477 (isolation #70) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:59 pm

Post by Todoroki »

I have three problems with it.

1) I don't really understand how you missed the scumclaim when it was literally me and norwee joking about being scum and saying who we should have put in small hood?
2) You are hedging very heavily on us
3) You are hedging on us, leaving an avenue open to swap your read to IV tomorrow after we flip green. You are already laying the preemptive groundwork, and for someone who isn't as confident in IV being town you sure have a weird way of trying to chase that read down. I'm aware this last point is hypocritical given my lack of presence thus far, and that's true! I did sit back more than normal this game.
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Post Post #478 (isolation #71) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:05 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Like, you could say I'm hedging by not voting you too which is a totally fair point to make! Or that I'm not really pushing IV (which should frankly hint that I'm town, IV knows scum-me LOVED the chance to get in his head and twist him in circles), and instead letting him do his own thing and think about what he's posted.

My issue with Prism which wasn't clear in my last post due to formatting, is there's multiple instances of Prism explicitly reaching out to me (albeit one was kinda a negg), and that's really weird given our dynamic? Typically it's the other way, me reaching out to Prism and us clashing pretty heavily. So to see a reachout from Prism, multiple in fact, sets off alarm bells in my head. I do think Prism has a point in it being out of the norm for me to not lock in to a reckless 1v1, but I also think it's in part due to the playerlist (which Prism should know, while there are a lot of familiar faces in this game this is a fairly different subset than typical). I'm going both ways on the read.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #72) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:53 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Hello, Lukewarm has returned.

Just looking at 472 and 474 back to back has kinda turned my read around in the small hood -

Notty was leaning MC being Scum and I was leaning IV being scum before that. But we have synched on MC being the scum in the small hood.

----

We are no longer synched on the big hood though :/

Notty thinks that it is Prism. And I kinda did too, until Prism's push on me earlier today. But it really did feel like Prism really believed the push.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #73) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:54 pm

Post by Todoroki »

So prism jumped from a scum read to a town lean for me today
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Post Post #491 (isolation #74) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:29 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 487, mc esther wrote:have consistently been voting them since literal start of day (with a brief diversion to the 6-group)
Why did you even vote us originally?

After you voted us you said that you had a reason in , but now you seem to be just tacking onto the stuff that Prism set up .

If you had a solid reason to vote us, why are you not adding it to the discussion? If you didn't have a solid reason to vote us, why did you imply that you did?
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Post Post #492 (isolation #75) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:33 pm

Post by Todoroki »

In post 288, mc esther wrote:
In post 268, Prism wrote:Esther, I'm assuming that the vote comes from wanting to do group of 3.

Can you talk about the two options more explicitly FYPOV?
no! probably later; i mean, i suppose i have to eventually.
Wait. Maybe I just parsed this incorrectly.

My first read through was

"I'm assuming that the vote comes from wanting to do group of 3" --- "no!"

"Can you talk about the two options more explicitly" --- "probably later; i mean, i suppose i have to eventually."


But looking at it again, that all may have been answering the second part.

----

I would still like to know why you originally voted us back in 288, but my other questions can probably be ignored.
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Post Post #493 (isolation #76) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:36 pm

Post by Todoroki »

Although, if you did not have a reason to vote us before my exchange with Prism, This looks pretty disingenuous:
In post 487, mc esther wrote:have consistently been voting them since literal start of day (with a brief diversion to the 6-group).
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Post Post #498 (isolation #77) » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:59 pm

Post by Todoroki »

I mean I feel like I’ve demonstrated an adequate understanding of why I get townread in most games, I just sometimes have a hyper inflated view of how town I should be for it
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Post Post #506 (isolation #78) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:59 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 505, Kuriyama wrote:I think if you're town you just vote for her and pound the table on her being mafia? I really don't understand the hesitation here.
Hello
In post 104, Todoroki wrote:would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!
In post 377, Todoroki wrote: 1) I still think shooting in the large hood is better
In post 391, Todoroki wrote:I still think that we should be killing in the large pool first.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #79) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:00 am

Post by Todoroki »

And like, obviously, if it comes down to us or her, I will vote for her, but I would much rather you and Prism figure out that I am town and help me find the scum in the big hood
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Post Post #508 (isolation #80) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:01 am

Post by Todoroki »

This is about where we landed after talking last night.

Luke's big hood reads
Puppy
Kuri
Prism
Dunn
Dwlee/STD

Notty's big hood reads
Puppy
Kuri
STD
Dunn
Dwlee/Prism
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Post Post #509 (isolation #81) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:05 am

Post by Todoroki »

Probably should have added some line breaks to make the segments clear
In post 508, Todoroki wrote:This is about where we landed after talking last night.

Luke's big hood reads
Puppy
Kuri
Prism

Dunn

Dwlee/STD


Notty's big hood reads
Puppy
Kuri
STD

Dunn
Dwlee/Prism
Dunn is null for me, but Notty seemed a bit more worried about him when we talked, so this is probably the right breaks
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Post Post #510 (isolation #82) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:07 am

Post by Todoroki »

For the record I’m pretty sure kuri realizes deep down that we’re town but we haven’t done enough to warrant an actual defense :3

I also think that MC post goes miles to set up a backtrack come tomorrow after we flip town soooooooo yeah

But anyways, is the big hood as dead as the little hood?

-notty
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Post Post #519 (isolation #83) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:19 am

Post by Todoroki »

Prism, I feels like your scum read on me boiled down to:

Luke would not be so confident as scum to place himself into the 6 person hood, so that must be a fake thought, and he is now lying about being that confident in his scum abilities.

Which I gotta say, is pretty meh. And I don't even see the through line here.

Am I so timid in my scum game that I would not be willing to place myself in the large pool? Or am I bold enough to bluff about my scum abilities, completely unprovoked - no one asked me about the sort, I dropped that line all on my own - I asked other people in our hood. The question came from me, and then no one even asked me, I volunteered my own answer. And then neither other hood mate brought it to the main thread, I did that myself too.

The emotion and energy you brought to the push yesterday felt very real, but I really expected you to come back and second guess it when you came back- but instead you are doubling down :/
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Post Post #523 (isolation #84) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:25 am

Post by Todoroki »

In post 522, Lukewarm wrote:It is Luke, I am in the middle of grabbing some things to post
oops
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Post Post #525 (isolation #85) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:33 am

Post by Todoroki »

Also, I just went back and looked at our post game conversation, and I am actually less sure why you were left thinking that I think so poorly of myself - out of the moment.

Like, sure. In the moment, I looked like someone who thinks I am the worst player ever

Spoiler:
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT
Lukewarm wrote:Sorry

She was gonna do it
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT
Lukewarm wrote:I guess I threw.

I had a copy paste vote luke ready, and refreshed incase pav got the vote in first. but no
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT
Lukewarm wrote:I am really really sorry. I was telling the truth about the situation giving me a panic attack and my hands shaking.

Cant believe that what is probably my best scum game so far on site is gonna end this way
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT
Lukewarm wrote:So incredibly sorry
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Spectator/Dead PT
Lukewarm wrote:Image
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Spectator/Dead PT
Lukewarm wrote:You ever have a game, that is like an amazing game? Like one that as its happening, your like "I can't wait until this game is over, and everyone congratulates me on how well I did"?

And then you remember that Prism is notorious for giving play notes in the post game, and in your last game together they have you positive notes, and it made you feel really good about yourself, and you hype yourself up because that is gonna happpen again this game?

And then you even think, huh, even if you lose this game, at the least you can leave knowing you were amazing and a lot of the factors that led to your loss were out of your control, and that you might even tell a couple people to read the game to see how well you did? Ever had a game like that?

And THEN, in the 11th hour did you decided to do something that turns that game into the worst moment in your mafia scum career?

Has that happened to anyone else? Just me?


But then like a day later I came back with a level head
Subject: Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Spectator/Dead PT
Lukewarm wrote:But that you. I did beat myself up a bit right when I voted. But given a moment, I am happy with my play.

I feel like I did very good all game, my strategies basically all played out exactly how I intended them to. I was possibly the most town read player in the game.

But there were things outside my control that just pushed me into a position where Ari was close to checkmating me. The two of us were in a fairly intense chess match at the end that I don't think anyone else was aware of lol
And it feels like you are saying "The Luke I saw who was kinda freaked out the moment he lost would never say that he should go in the 6 man hood"

And I don't get why you don't see that when I am talking with a more level head, I am not so down on my play. Hell, even in that game I DID put myself into the hardest game of the three.

Anyways, if this doesn't sway you, I guess it doesn't sway you - and today is my birhtday, so I am probably not gonna be on any more today. Wake up in the morning to see if I am in the dead thread I guess lol
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Post Post #528 (isolation #86) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:54 am

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I was talking directly to you because you are the one who was leading the charge (basically everyon else appeared to just vote and say "yeah, I guess" to the things that you said), I have been thinking you were town, and you seemed like you at least think you are good at reading me.
In post 230, Prism wrote:Todoroki in particular has two different players that are generally easy to read
In post 231, Prism wrote:Todoroki is null for now. I am confident I still have, for the moment, Todoroki's number, and it is more of a matter of time for when I catch them than a question of if. There was one game I struggled to see notscience as town but even spectating I have always found it trivial.
Plus, you the person I have the most experience with here other then Notty. So, yeah. You're the person I have been talking to.

But you don't even appear to be considering that we could be town.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #87) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:07 am

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In post 530, Lukewarm wrote:Okay, actually getting ready to leave to go to my sisters. I am just kind of assuming that I will be dead by the time I get back to the game.

So final notes before the sweet song plays:

Dunn - Dunn has absolutely ghosted this game, which does make me want to call Dunn town... But, I have actively had a conversation with Dunn about this trend (I made a whole ass dunn spread sheet tracking his day 1 activity vs his alignment, across a LOT of games. Was VERY accurate (like 90% accuracy) pretty sure that being scum gets Dunn invested in games. So I WANT to call him town, but since I actively told him about this table, it feels like he might do it on purpose at some point. This is a paranoia thought, but this is the only reason I am not actually town binning him right now.

Puppy - I will eat my hat if they flip scum. Probably never kill them.

StD - Notty was town reading StD based off the of the comments about his activity in the large hood, feels like a weird way to read him, so I just ignored that. but his unvote on us just now seems town motivated. No reason to unvote there as scum - this wagon was in no way tied to him.

Prism - I am retracting my town read on her. Almost like a BoP thig really. Probably should never make it to Elo.

Everything else feels like it was pretty well covered before.
And I had been doing so well :/
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Post Post #533 (isolation #88) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:17 am

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MC scum, iv town. Already kinda went over them.

That last post was just things that had changed (std, you) and Dunn who I had not really explained before. Puppy is probably the odd one out, but my town read there is just that strong I guess lol
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Post Post #542 (isolation #89) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:51 am

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IVs been townreading me though? I already showed y’all what actual flopping looks like, but what do I know I’m scum amirite
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Post Post #544 (isolation #90) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:54 am

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I’m more inconsistent than normal lately because I’m busy which is a fair statement but also doesn’t make me scum
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Post Post #582 (isolation #91) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:05 pm

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In post 566, Dunnstral wrote:Todoroki was a bad wagon
A little late Dunn
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Post Post #586 (isolation #92) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:06 pm

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In post 570, Kuriyama wrote:fairly sure we are going small hood tomm

do you still strongly prefer Esther?
I still think so.

Killing in small hood tomorrow is always right (which is why I said Kell prism before Elo, not to kill her tomorrow)
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Post Post #592 (isolation #93) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:08 pm

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I thought I was at e-1 when I logged off earlier. Turns out I got voted twice while at my bday party lol
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Post Post #594 (isolation #94) » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:10 pm

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Great job guys!
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