Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!
Forum rules
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
In a situation with me and IV, having a known (albeit tricky to read) quantity puts me in a better position. At least was my initial thought, however as I said I haven’t really given the placement a ton of thought other than finding it curious I’m paired with IV in the first place.In post 82, Dunnstral wrote:
Why answer like this instead of answering the questionIn post 79, Todoroki wrote:You’re right Dunn I clearly haven’t put a ton of thought into the setup other than selfish wish who I’m with so I’m probably town for not thinking of the optimal answer
Nice talk- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Hey, I was in a previous running of this game.
There ended up being a lot of discussion on which hood to kill in first. After lots and lots of back and forth mech talk, it was decided that killing in the big hood first is better. Despite that, we killed scum in the small hood day one, and then proceeded to lose the game.
I don't remember all of the math on why it is better, but that was Bingle's final conclusion, and I trust Bingle's set up spec better then my own anyways.
Spoiler:
So, would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=86547In post 105, mc esther wrote:can you link to the game?
^ second run of the game, me norwee and Dunn were all in it
Killed mafia day one, mafia win
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=86273
^ original run of the game norwee was in it (norwee must really like this set up lol)
Day 1 town win, killed mafia in big hood.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Scum Bingle put himself, Norwee, and Not_Mafia in the small hood.In post 109, Brighter Puppy wrote:did scum put more thought into beta group than other groups with the same line of thinking i had? (harder to read players in beta and rest go to alpha
So, probably. Norwee and Notmafia are both miselimed pretty often.
But, then Bingle decided to basically get himself eliminated day 1. His strategy was too big brain for me.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
I feel like Norwee would have been More likely to have explained the day 1 town win if they were scum. Because they would have had too sort the hoods. Instantly becomes a thing they have to consider.In post 130, Kuriyama wrote:I find it more concerning tbh that norwee didn't think to tell you about his past experiences as town in this setup.
One explanation would be that he finally rolled scum in this setup, hence he didn't think his past town experiences would really be applicable or useful.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Can you explain this?In post 144, mc esther wrote:i liked the questions, i like that he got town strategy wrong despite having played before.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Not the questions part. The strategy part.In post 145, Todoroki wrote:
Can you explain this?In post 144, mc esther wrote:i liked the questions, i like that he got town strategy wrong despite having played before.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
I am still not sure what you are saying.In post 148, mc esther wrote:i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.
His first post about which hood we should shoot in was the "correct' mech conclusion.
Do you mean you giving him town points because his rvs vote was in the small hood?- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Hello, I am Lukewarm.In post 151, Brighter Puppy wrote:Notsci don't u think u hunting in beta group is waste of time.
WE GOT SCUM IN ALPHA TO CATCH AND I NEED UR THOUGHTS THERE
don't distract- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Nothing strong.In post 157, Kuriyama wrote:
Hi Lukewarm,In post 153, Todoroki wrote:Hello, I am Lukewarm.
do you have any thoughts about who is town/scum in the Large Hood?
Vaguely thought that if there was scum in the you + puppy interaction, it would be you. But as a whole it looked t/t.
But we also have not even heard from Save the Dragons or Prism yet.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Hello, I am Lukewarm.In post 166, innocentvillager wrote:
Interesting, I’m down to just follow it even if it feels a bit wrong to me.In post 104, Todoroki wrote:Hey, I was in a previous running of this game.
There ended up being a lot of discussion on which hood to kill in first. After lots and lots of back and forth mech talk, it was decided that killing in the big hood first is better. Despite that, we killed scum in the small hood day one, and then proceeded to lose the game.
I don't remember all of the math on why it is better, but that was Bingle's final conclusion, and I trust Bingle's set up spec better then my own anyways.
Spoiler:
So, would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!
also fwiw I think this comes from town!NS unless he’s confident that people are going to bring it up. Either that or it’s scum!NS who wants people to kill in the 6 first for whatever reason. But it seems like in general he believes that town should kill in the 6 so if he’s scum it should be bad for him to reinforce town optimal strategy when he could’ve just let us bicker about it more
But also, I don't think this is a good reason to town read us. Almost certain I would have said we should elim in the big hood as scum. Especially since there are two other players in this game that were in that game with me.
I am town, but please find a better reason to call me town. Thanks!- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
I asked nicely for us to skip the mech back and forth.In post 174, Dwlee99 wrote:(1/6) + (5/6)(1/4)(1/3 + 1/3) + (5/6)(3/4)(1/2)(1/3) =~ 41%
I want the beta route
The math is very slightly better to kill in the small pool first,if all shots are made at random.
But, there are other factors. Killing scum day 1 in the big hood wins the game, so scum can never bus into the big hood. But they can bus into the small hood. Meaning, if we are killing in the small hood day 1, the information we gain from associatives is not as good.
Also, if we kill into the small hood, and hit scum day 1, then the scum that is left gets to do two no info kills in a row. So, the literal best case scenario for killing in the small hood is a 1v5 mountainous game where the scum team does not kill anyone until the night before elo. (this is how my last game played out.)
Vs best case scenario of killing in the big hood - which is an auto win. And even if we miss in the big hood, night kills and associatives are stronger.
So, math wise, killing in the small hood is a +4% EV when shot at random, but shooting in the big hood results in better information to solve with, meaning we will not be shooting at random.
This is the exact discussion that Bingle and Vander had day 1 of the last game on where to shoot.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
In post 185, Todoroki wrote:I am town, but please find a better reason to call me town. Thanks!
Both of these are me making jokes.In post 186, Todoroki wrote:I asked nicely for us to skip the mech back and forth.
I am not upset by either thing.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
I am including that 1 in 6 shot.In post 190, innocentvillager wrote:-I disagree with the "best case scenario being a 1v5 mountainous" because this ignores the fact that we get a 1/6 shot in scum the day before that.
If we kill mafia in the small hood day 1, then the game becomes a mountainous game for the small hood. 6 players. 1v5. / But the scum team is not killing anyone until the night before elo, because they will be killing off the two confirmed townies first.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Is 4% EV a LOT, or is it close enough that we should just ignore it? lolIn post 190, innocentvillager wrote:-also 4% EV is a LOT imo lol
-
It seems close enough that maybe we should just sort everyone and have everyone on the table for today- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Sorry.In post 243, Todoroki wrote:Hey guys, running a fever and slept for the last several hours, and all I want to do is go back to sleep.. Probably going to leave the reigns of this hydra toMarci'sNotty's capable hands.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Rude lol
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Your hood sounds better then mine.In post 272, Prism wrote:FWIW I am looking forward to the next chapter of Captain Slade & Doctor Zhiv
Our is hardly being used out side of me asking everyone which hood they would have put themselves in if they were scum.
mc esther: small hood, because its "harder" and because she sees herself as good at getting town read.
IV: would depend on his partner, but would not have put himself and Notty together in the small hood.
Luke: I said that looking at the playerlist, I would put myself into the large hood unless my partner was exactly Dunn or Prism.
Notty: Agreed with me.
Then IV asked me what me and notty were saying about everyone's answers in out hydra chat.
And basically, I said that MC Esther's answer did not line up with how I would have expected a scum chat to go. Because, I would have expected the first thing that they would have discussed would have been the day 1 loss possibility, and needing to avoid that. So, seeing her describe the smaller hood as "harder" and that she would go there because she is "good at getting town read" felt to me like she had not been in a scum chat discussion on the sorts.
IV's answer did not give me much, but Notty agreed that he did not think that IV would have put himself into the small hood with Notty.
And that's basically it for our hood.
Spoiler:
While I have been away from the game, there has basically been no discussion happening in there.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
IV, what would you call the line that we are on? Null? Lean scum?
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
+1In post 354, Kuriyama wrote:
Congratulations!In post 346, Prism wrote:I will not be here today. I just got my first acceptance into law school.
I do not have words to express. I am overwhelmed. I have worked towards this every day for over two years, with nothing else in mind. So much of why I have kept playing, and why I play so intensely, was tied to this.
Thanks to everyone that has put up with me the last two years.
Congrats Prism!- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
This is my exact thought about Dunn this gameIn post 313, Kuriyama wrote:I would be so disappointed if Dunnstral was scum and decided to ghost this game- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
When I have actually encountered scum!Dunn, I was super impressed. Like he walked out of day 1 near universally town read, and was my number 1 town read.In post 369, Kuriyama wrote:In post 345, Todoroki wrote:Luke: I said that looking at the playerlist, I would put myself into the large hood unless my partner was exactly Dunn or Prism.
Why Dunnstral?
I was thinking nobody would ever put Dunnstral in as large hood scum because he's so limbaity and not even playing?..
I think that Dunn gets scum read a lot as town, but when he is actually scum its not the case. That is basically the same reason I agreed with you that him ghosting this game makes me lean town on him.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
1) I still think shooting in the large hood is betterIn post 371, Kuriyama wrote:
It feels weird to me that you have a town-read on IV but you aren't trying to push for Esther elim - she is at E-2 currently.In post 350, Todoroki wrote:Puppy why should I vote Dunn
2) Notty is leaning town on IV, but I am less convinced.
-Luke, even though you were originally questioning a Notty post.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
I have zero completed games in a hydra.
I think that being in this hydra is also limiting to what I put in the thread, because like in my catch up, I was pointing out posts in our hydra chat vs dropping them directly into the main thread.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Notty and I have both made posts today.In post 385, Prism wrote:...Can you be more specific as to why this isn't your scumgame?
I am assuming this is Lukewarm, I thought a few other posts were notscience welp
As for my scum game, I guess I feel like I would just have already done more as scum? Like, I have been 1000% super try hard in every scum game I have played, and actively aimed to be the number one poster in all of those games (don't normally win, some people can reach unbelievable posting levels, but I general get pretty up there)
And I just haven't been here this game.
And like, yeah I was sick, but pretty sure that as scum I would not have been able to stay away - and I would also be pushing Notty to post more.
Which, this is not like a super identifier, because I mostly try hard as town too, but I always try extra hard as scum.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
My thinking was that who ever went into the large pool should be the person most likely to dodge a day 1 elimination. I think that me and notty would be pretty good at that. The only people that I thought I would just trust to be better then this dynamic duo would be you or Dunn.In post 387, Prism wrote:I'm kind of halfassing while killing time, will chew on 345 but I don't really see why you would be a lock for large group. You got better in Guardians but your confidence is definitely not there to single carry yet.
You are also not thinking about this game the same way I am, if you expect the scum in the large pool would be a single carry?
Based on my own experience with this set up, and reading the game before that, I still think that we should be killing in the large pool first.
So, even if you and other people who disagree with me push for it to go the other way, that is how I was thinking about the game when I answered that question.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
What are you talking about? That decision would have nothing to do with who I would be worried about being a good scum hunter in that scenario. I was comparing potential partners.
If I was partnered with, say STD, yeah. I would think that he was more likely to get eliminated then me day 1. Put myself into 6, std into 3. Same with Norwee. Same with Dwlee. I have seen each of them get scum read super early.
But if partnered with you or dunn, I would have handed off the 6 p to one of you.
(Never encountered IV, Kuriyama, or MC before, so I guess each of them would be more of a conversation in the Night 0).
-----
You are talking past what I am actually saying.
If I was partnered with (fill in the blank from above), I would place myself in the 6 p hood. ---- And then I would be constantly panicking in the scum chat that I was sure that X was going to figure me out.
But that does not stop me from spotting that I have seen them get scum read day 1, and so far I have been fairly town read early on in my scum games.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
I have never been eliminated day 1 in any game as either alignment. -- So yes, I trust my own ability to dodge day 1.
When I am not actively panicking in the heat of the moment during a game (when I think that I am actually the worst player ever), I am aware of these things.
I don't think I would sign up to be a single carry, because I don't have that long term confidence, but I do generally think of myself as hard to eliminate.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
The "when not actively panicking" line was because I thought your point about my lack of confidence as scum was in reference to the moment in that game you modded where I was actively panicking and saying that I was terrible at this game in the scum chat. I was saying that that moment is not a good reference to how I feel about my scum game.
----
If you want to talk in generals, these are the general thoughts that lead me to making that statement about the sort
"If I were scum, I would have sorted to avoid a day 1 auto loss"
+
"I am pretty good at dodging a day 1 elimination" (I have never been eliminated day 1 in any game as either alignment)
->
"I would probably suggest I take the 6p hood unless I thought the other scum player was better at dodging day 1 then I am"
->
"Prism and Dunn are the only people I see on the list I would off hand think that about"
->
"I would probably put myself into the 6 p hood, unless my partner was exactly Prism or Dunn"
And that was the extent of my thoughts going into my answer.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
You don't think that I think that I am hard to eliminate?In post 411, Prism wrote:That is still a ridiculous amount of conditionals and I am skeptical of several, again in particular 2 and 4.
Is that something that you think that I would lie about as scum?- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
Why would scum!Luke need to lie about how he felt about his own eliminability? This seems like such a useless place to choose to lie.In post 415, Prism wrote:Yes.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
The same post goes on to talk about specifics for that game, like how many town reads I had, but here is me saying that I am a hard person to push out in almost every game. I am sure there are others, because I know I have mentioned it a few times, but this one was the first one I remembered a specific game that it came up in.In post 575, Servant Archer wrote:I personally feel like I am a pretty hard person to push out in almost every game I have played.- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
LukewarmIn post 423, Brighter Puppy wrote:Todoroki who are you again? Since you keep being nonmislimmable day 1 or whatever.
- Norwee
We have played a couple of games together. A random newbie game, the second run of this set up, and then unwnd's Gensokyo upickHydra account of Notscience and Lukewarm- Todoroki
-
Todoroki Townie
- Todoroki
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 96
- Joined: January 12, 2022
No, I had made the signature, but forgot to change the setting to make it actually post. Until you asked, and I realized that it was not there.Hydra account of Notscience and Lukewarm - Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki
- Todoroki