Mini Normal 2258 | Bunnies [Postgame]

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys when I last played about a year ago I was working on an idea I had called the Standard Survey Start (SSS). It was research based and designed to be a way to start the game which might give town an advantage compared to the RVS alone and especially the RQS. It requires a moderate level of participation. The first prototype of this start was used in a Mini Normal and that game ended in a town win!!

I'm going to dig up my notes on it and some of the feedback I got from the first time and post updated instructions here within the next 24 hours. I hope that everyone will be onboard with helping me test my idea and the SSS is successful in helping town seize more early advantage.

____

Now before writing this introduction I did give our thread a once-over and I formed a very weak early scum read based on a post I grabbed below:

Oh and baltar too

You think there was any scum on that speed wagon?

VOTE: VP Baltar

My idea behind my FoS is that VP Baltar is asking this question to fill up space and appear to be hunting rather than to solicit a meaningful response from skitter.

[Frogsterking]

Is anyone on? I have the survey start written with my response filled out and I want page top for it. There are three posts left to fill for this page.

[Frogsterking]

No. Is there any reason why you're unable to complete a pro town survey?

[Frogsterking]

Part 1: https://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/ ... neo300.htm

Take the short or long version of the test then copy paste results (and specify which version please.) Link source is credible and the webpage contains further links to credible sources with very detailed information on this psychometric tool if you want to read.

Part 2 is below and can be copy pasted or quote-edited underneath your test results from Part 1. There are 15 Likert-scale questions (1-5), two short response questions, and one list.

__________

Part 2:

(Short written response)

How do you tell stories?

Answer:

(15 Likert scale questions, choose 1-5: 1 = Very strongly disagree and 5 = Very strongly agree)

I frequently am interested in an early town block when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently double-down under pressure on my FoS when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently get mis-eliminated early when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently can identify correctly on D1 who is town when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently can convince others of who to eliminate when playing mafia online.
12345
I can manipulate others in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I lie frequently in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I Socialize frequently in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I Can tell when others are lying in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I Can often convince others of complete fabrications in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I have at least five strong town reads at this point in time.
12345
I believe we should execute EoD a player in the middle of most players PoE at this point in time.
12345
I believe there is more than one scum at the bottom of my PoE at this point in time.
12345
I believe this is an easy town for mafia to hide in at this point in time.
12345
I'm at least moderately suspicious of any of the top three most active posters at this point in time.
12345

(Short written response)

How do you create stories?

Answer:



Sort full player PoE list at this point in time:

(most town)

Almost50
Andresvmb
Aristeia
Datisi
Frogsterking
House
innocentvillager
Laplacian
OutWorldER
Reformed Toxic Player
skitter30
Something_Smart
VP Baltar

(most mafia)

__________

Mine:

Part 1: https://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/ ... neo300.htm

I took the short test!

DOMAIN/Facet Score
EXTRAVERSION 34
..Friendliness 13
..Gregariousness 21
..Assertiveness 44
..Activity Level 88
..Excitement-Seeking 56
..Cheerfulness 18
Your score on Extraversion is average, indicating you are neither a subdued loner nor a jovial chatterbox. You enjoy time with others but also time alone.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
AGREEABLENESS 7
..Trust 1
..Morality 29
..Altruism 13
..Cooperation 1
..Modesty 55
..Sympathy 73
Your score on Agreeableness is low, indicating less concern with others' needs Than with your own. People see you as tough, critical, and uncompromising.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
CONSCIENTIOUSNESS 3
..Self-Efficacy 1
..Orderliness 3
..Dutifulness 28
..Achievement-Striving 46
..Self-Discipline 4
..Cautiousness 22
Your score on Conscientiousness is low, indicating you like to live for the moment and do what feels good now. Your work tends to be careless and disorganized.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
NEUROTICISM 99
..Anxiety 99
..Anger 99
..Depression 63
..Self-Consciousness 75
..Immoderation 99
..Vulnerability 99
Your score on Neuroticism is high, indicating that you are easily upset, even by what most people consider the normal demands of living. People consider you to be sensitive and emotional.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
OPENNESS 75
..Imagination 89
..Artistic Interests 78
..Emotionality 65
..Adventurousness 86
..Intellect 70
..Liberalism 10
Your score on Openness to Experience is high, indicating you enjoy novelty, variety, and change. You are curious, imaginative, and creative.
__________

Part 2:

(Short written response)

How do you tell stories?

Answer: I prefer to have everything written down and practiced before hand because often I get anxious and talk too quickly and skip over details. Often when it comes time to tell the story I'm running late, can't find the location, and I've not finished the story yet and/or I've misplaced something I needed which makes the anxiety worse. Usually I'm avoiding being the one to tell the story and I'm trying to become the one to write the script or come up with ideas.

(15 Likert scale questions, choose 1-5: 1 = Very strongly disagree and 5 = Very strongly agree)

I frequently am interested in an early town block when playing mafia online.
123

4

5
I frequently double-down under pressure on my FoS when playing mafia online.
1234

5

I frequently get mis-eliminated early when playing mafia online.

1

2345
I frequently can identify correctly on D1 who is town when playing mafia online.
123

4

5
I frequently can convince others of who to eliminate when playing mafia online.
1234

5

I can manipulate others in a variety of situations offline.

1

2345
I lie frequently in a variety of situations offline.

1

2345
I Socialize frequently in a variety of situations offline.
1

2

345
I Can tell when others are lying in a variety of situations offline.
12

3

45
I Can often convince others of complete fabrications in a variety of situations offline.

1

2345
I have at least five strong town reads at this point in time.
1234

5

I believe we should execute EoD a player in the middle of most players PoE at this point in time.
123

4

5
I believe there is more than one scum at the bottom of my PoE at this point in time.
12

3

45
I believe this is an easy town for mafia to hide in at this point in time.
1

2

345
I'm at least moderately suspicious of any of the top three most active posters at this point in time.

1

2345

(Short written response)

How do you create stories?

Answer: My stories are intuitively/heuristically derived, I create them all the time in my head automatically and I just choose aspects of what I'm seeing to focus on and become the story.



Sort full player PoE list at this point in time:

(most town)

Frogsterking
skitter30
House
Datisi
Aristeia
Almost50
OutWorldER
Laplacian
Andresvmb
innocentvillager
Something_Smart
Reformed Toxic Player
VP Baltar

(most mafia)

[Frogsterking]

You called me mafia so im all set hehe

Understandable from an emotional point of view.

IMO completing the survey anyway will move you close to the top of my PoE.

[Frogsterking]

@all FYI I think RTP is town telling on this page.

[Frogsterking]

I spectated a game with frog and theyre very different tonally here ^.^

I spectated a game with frog and theyre very different tonally here ^.^

they're different in which direction >_>

they're different in which direction >_>

What does this mean, why would there be a single direction

rtp said how frog is different in this game than in some other one

i don't know if that means "frog is different here than in a scumgame, so i think they're town" or "frog is different here than in a towngame, so i think they're scum"

I haven't rolled scum in a mafia game in several years and I haven't played since my last game here almost exactly one year ago.

IMO the small cluster of games I completed here a couple years ago were all town and very different tonally from each other between games and within the same game.

I don't believe meta is a useful tool to screen me because I don't have one and I don't believe the above quoted is an application of meta that is going places.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Part 1: https://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/ ... neo300.htm

Take the short or long version of the test then copy paste results (and specify which version please.) Link source is credible and the webpage contains further links to credible sources with very detailed information on this psychometric tool if you want to read.

Part 2 is below and can be copy pasted or quote-edited underneath your test results from Part 1. There are 15 Likert-scale questions (1-5), two short response questions, and one list.

__________

Part 2:

(Short written response)

How do you tell stories?

Answer:

(15 Likert scale questions, choose 1-5: 1 = Very strongly disagree and 5 = Very strongly agree)

I frequently am interested in an early town block when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently double-down under pressure on my FoS when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently get mis-eliminated early when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently can identify correctly on D1 who is town when playing mafia online.
12345
I frequently can convince others of who to eliminate when playing mafia online.
12345
I can manipulate others in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I lie frequently in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I Socialize frequently in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I Can tell when others are lying in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I Can often convince others of complete fabrications in a variety of situations offline.
12345
I have at least five strong town reads at this point in time.
12345
I believe we should execute EoD a player in the middle of most players PoE at this point in time.
12345
I believe there is more than one scum at the bottom of my PoE at this point in time.
12345
I believe this is an easy town for mafia to hide in at this point in time.
12345
I'm at least moderately suspicious of any of the top three most active posters at this point in time.
12345

(Short written response)

How do you create stories?

Answer:



Sort full player PoE list at this point in time:

(most town)

Almost50
Andresvmb
Aristeia
Datisi
Frogsterking
House
innocentvillager
Laplacian
OutWorldER
Reformed Toxic Player
skitter30
Something_Smart
VP Baltar

(most mafia)

__________

Mine:

Part 1: https://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/ ... neo300.htm

I took the short test!

DOMAIN/Facet Score
EXTRAVERSION 34
..Friendliness 13
..Gregariousness 21
..Assertiveness 44
..Activity Level 88
..Excitement-Seeking 56
..Cheerfulness 18
Your score on Extraversion is average, indicating you are neither a subdued loner nor a jovial chatterbox. You enjoy time with others but also time alone.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
AGREEABLENESS 7
..Trust 1
..Morality 29
..Altruism 13
..Cooperation 1
..Modesty 55
..Sympathy 73
Your score on Agreeableness is low, indicating less concern with others' needs Than with your own. People see you as tough, critical, and uncompromising.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
CONSCIENTIOUSNESS 3
..Self-Efficacy 1
..Orderliness 3
..Dutifulness 28
..Achievement-Striving 46
..Self-Discipline 4
..Cautiousness 22
Your score on Conscientiousness is low, indicating you like to live for the moment and do what feels good now. Your work tends to be careless and disorganized.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
NEUROTICISM 99
..Anxiety 99
..Anger 99
..Depression 63
..Self-Consciousness 75
..Immoderation 99
..Vulnerability 99
Your score on Neuroticism is high, indicating that you are easily upset, even by what most people consider the normal demands of living. People consider you to be sensitive and emotional.

DOMAIN/Facet Score
OPENNESS 75
..Imagination 89
..Artistic Interests 78
..Emotionality 65
..Adventurousness 86
..Intellect 70
..Liberalism 10
Your score on Openness to Experience is high, indicating you enjoy novelty, variety, and change. You are curious, imaginative, and creative.
__________

Part 2:

(Short written response)

How do you tell stories?

Answer: I prefer to have everything written down and practiced before hand because often I get anxious and talk too quickly and skip over details. Often when it comes time to tell the story I'm running late, can't find the location, and I've not finished the story yet and/or I've misplaced something I needed which makes the anxiety worse. Usually I'm avoiding being the one to tell the story and I'm trying to become the one to write the script or come up with ideas.

(15 Likert scale questions, choose 1-5: 1 = Very strongly disagree and 5 = Very strongly agree)

I frequently am interested in an early town block when playing mafia online.
123

4

5
I frequently double-down under pressure on my FoS when playing mafia online.
1234

5

I frequently get mis-eliminated early when playing mafia online.

1

2345
I frequently can identify correctly on D1 who is town when playing mafia online.
123

4

5
I frequently can convince others of who to eliminate when playing mafia online.
1234

5

I can manipulate others in a variety of situations offline.

1

2345
I lie frequently in a variety of situations offline.

1

2345
I Socialize frequently in a variety of situations offline.
1

2

345
I Can tell when others are lying in a variety of situations offline.
12

3

45
I Can often convince others of complete fabrications in a variety of situations offline.

1

2345
I have at least five strong town reads at this point in time.
1234

5

I believe we should execute EoD a player in the middle of most players PoE at this point in time.
123

4

5
I believe there is more than one scum at the bottom of my PoE at this point in time.
12

3

45
I believe this is an easy town for mafia to hide in at this point in time.
1

2

345
I'm at least moderately suspicious of any of the top three most active posters at this point in time.

1

2345

(Short written response)

How do you create stories?

Answer: My stories are intuitively/heuristically derived, I create them all the time in my head automatically and I just choose aspects of what I'm seeing to focus on and become the story.



Sort full player PoE list at this point in time:

(most town)

Frogsterking
skitter30
House
Datisi
Aristeia
Almost50
OutWorldER
Laplacian
Andresvmb
innocentvillager
Something_Smart
Reformed Toxic Player
VP Baltar

(most mafia)

Yeah, no... I'm a phone poster, so I'm not doing this.

I can empathize with this because I started writing the survey on my phone and had to switch to my laptop to finish it.

[Frogsterking]

I would be down to yeet Frog just for asking people to fill that insanity out and claiming it is protown.


Happy cake day, RTP!

FYI this looks like a scum post here.

If it's coming from town then with a town like this who needs scum?

The first prototype of this start was used in a Mini Normal and that game ended in a town win!!

Can I get a link to this game?

..no.

[Frogsterking]

VP Baltar
(most mafia)

any updated reasoning for this?

Yes when I was reading the thread my read on VP Baltar became more negative at the same time you posted things that aligned roughly with what I was thinking minus the meta:

221 is a post that i *really* want to call bad for reasons that would most definitely get easily disputed and ultimately do not actually mean anything

which is reminding me of the fact how useful it would be to have iv actually play the darn game if he's town

Baltar seems to be playing how I remember him playing 2195 where he was town.

:thonk:

nevermind scratch that, now i want to townread baltar because i don't think scum!him forgets whether someone is townreading or scumreading him, and surely he would be faking something like this?? haha??? surely????

221 is a post that i *really* want to call bad for reasons that would most definitely get easily disputed and ultimately do not actually mean anything

Elaborate.

221 is bad because like
i don't think it's groundbreaking to say that not every post in a game gets a reaction from people. and the fact that he said he didn't like that iv's nakedvote doesn't mean that he automatically thinks any and all nakedvotes are bad because context do be important sometimes. this is something that we all know. but your post kinda ~ignores~ that fact and goes on the offence on "why didn't you react to this" which has the subtle implication that ower is scum for not reacting to it because he's scum breaking his own principle of "all nakedvotes are scummy" which would then obviously mean that that principle was made up in the first place therefore he's scum. BUT just ebcause he found one nakedvote scummy doesn't mean he finds all of them scummy so you're subtly and subconsciously making us think he said that when he did NOT

I believe I observed the same or very similar tells from VP Baltar that you observed but I had a much more pessimistic interpretation of them. It seems that you have knowledge about VP Baltar which is affecting your interpretation and I don't know enough about it to trust it over what I'm observing.

[Frogsterking]

Eh frog is probably town

Do you think VP Baltar and I are t v t?

[Frogsterking]

i am going to be a bit selfish because i'd like to believe this might help me read this game

Spoiler: do not open if your name isn't vp baltar

The first prototype of this start was used in a Mini Normal and that game ended in a town win!!

Can I get a link to this game?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85345

Thanks.

Ok, from what I can tell, the survey didn't actually lead to catching scum. Early game, frogster had most of the scum team in the town pile on a survey he admits is pseudoscience.

I'm really not sure why you would waste everyone's time on this a second time when the first wasn't particularly successful, and I find it fairly dubious to list two seemingly unrelated events ("we took the survey" and "town won") when it is not clear at all they have any relation.

Frog, what is compelling you to run the survey again when it made you town bin the scum for much of the first game?

Most of this information is inaccurate and I believe you're open wolfing at this point. I think one of your partners is innocentvillager.

In answer to your question, your face is compelling me to run the survey again.

[Frogsterking]

It seems that you have knowledge about VP Baltar which is affecting your interpretation and I don't know enough about it to trust it over what I'm observing.

my relevant knowledge of him here is that i have a tendency to gut-scumread every single thing he does due to naturally finding his tone scummy and due to getting *very* badly burned once. realistically, 221 is a pretty nai post i think?

I'm gut-scumreading everything he says at this point. I'm noticing he doesn't share a lot with others and a consistent lack of follow up to his questions.

It makes sense that he burned you once as scum if he usually doesn't make the game any easier when he's town.

There seem to be a few strong scum hunters here so I'm interested if others think 221 is AI. I imagine there might be a range. I'm pretty good at scumhunting (or I used to be) over live chat but I'm not as good at forum and I consider 221 AI.

[Frogsterking]

Most of this information is inaccurate and I believe you're open wolfing at this point. I think one of your partners is innocentvillager.

In answer to your question, your face is compelling me to run the survey again.

You cannot possibly be this ridiculous after being on this website for 10 years.

What did I say that is inaccurate?

In 337 you made at least one directly false statement which can be easily debunked and I'm interpreting as a lie.

In addition, you made at least one inaccuracy or lie by concealment, and at least two logical fallacies, each of which can be clearly laid out.

I believe you're pursuing this line of discussion in an open attempt to derail it (and if you are town then you aren't worth trying to persuade) so I will return to 337 at a moment of my convenience or at the request of players other than you. Anyone influenced by 337 I assure you the information is not to be taken seriously but the post itself may be AI.

[Frogsterking]

Ok really frog is town theyre just pushing silly strategy which isnt scummy just ambitious :3

Yeah, maybe. I find the extremely questionable framing and not answering simple questions pretty anti-town, but he might just play like shit so idk.

Not to mention, not answering questions is pretty inconsistent coming from a player that's wanting everyone to answer a long ass RQS.

Except that I do have a history of answering questions, VP Baltar is referring to a single task he requested me to complete which I did not comply with because he could have done it himself in the time it took to ask. This is more misinformation being spread by VP Baltar.

[Frogsterking]

Most of this information is inaccurate and I believe you're open wolfing at this point. I think one of your partners is innocentvillager.

In answer to your question, your face is compelling me to run the survey again.

You cannot possibly be this ridiculous after being on this website for 10 years.

What did I say that is inaccurate?

In 337 you made at least one directly false statement which can be easily debunked and I'm interpreting as a lie.

In addition, you made at least one inaccuracy or lie by concealment, and at least two logical fallacies, each of which can be clearly laid out.

I believe you're pursuing this line of discussion in an open attempt to derail it (and if you are town then you aren't worth trying to persuade) so I will return to 337 at a moment of my convenience or at the request of players other than you. Anyone influenced by 337 I assure you the information is not to be taken seriously but the post itself may be AI.

@frogs, 337 is my post

@house, i found it weird you're ~so vibing~ with someone you have as lockscum

In 337 you made at least one directly false statement which can be easily debunked and I'm interpreting as a lie.

This is datisi...also what lie?

336 *

[Frogsterking]

Frogster is playing mostly how I remember them playing in 2185, very forceful and ambitious. As a side note, I am mad about 2185 being linked since it's been a year and I'm still angry about that game.

Although @Frogster why is (was? did your read change drastically at 307?) RTP a big scumread for you?

I don't like that game either, I like most of the players, but I don't like reading my posts, I think I drank too much back then.

_____

I did ISOs before posting the survey and I interpreted RTP's first dozen or so pages as an experienced scum appearing relaxed and unconcerned about what others think. This is because they seemed irreverent, disorderly, and changed their posting style, combined with no indication of moving the discussion forward or scum hunting. I interpret this to be well within the expected range of an experienced scum player.

My read did change drastically since then based on RTP's reaction to my survey (which contained my PoE placing them near the very bottom) and flawed attempt to meta dive me because they made me think that they genuinely are interested in moving things forward and they have indeed been scum hunting. I weight this extra heavily because they responded to me in real time, where most of my experience is. I do not think RTP's behavior since my FoS in the survey post is within the expected range of scum play.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler: Part 1

EXTRAVERSION 6
..Friendliness 28
..Gregariousness 19
..Assertiveness 4
..Activity Level 1
..Excitement-Seeking 7
..Cheerfulness 67

AGREEABLENESS 72
..Trust 51
..Morality 97
..Altruism 30
..Cooperation 76
..Modesty 72
..Sympathy 54

CONSCIENTIOUSNESS 16
..Self-Efficacy 2
..Orderliness 36
..Dutifulness 75
..Achievement-Striving 1
..Self-Discipline 20
..Cautiousness 71

NEUROTICISM 16
..Anxiety 2
..Anger 2
..Depression 12
..Self-Consciousness 95
..Immoderation 5
..Vulnerability 51

OPENNESS 16
..Imagination 1
..Artistic Interests 15
..Emotionality 10
..Adventurousness 8
..Intellect 71
..Liberalism 86

I took the long test, but I wouldn't recommend it. I only did it because I have a ton of down time at work anyway. There were a lot of essentially repeated questions, I doubt you would lose much by going for the short one instead.

Spoiler: Part 2

How do you tell stories?

Start with the context, provide enough details so that the climax/point can be understood, but not so much that the exposition is boring. Try and make sure the climax is not predictable; re-ordering or dropping details in the exposition can often help with this. Make sure that what happened in the climax is clear and the reason it's important is clear.

Likert questions are all 1, except "I believe this is an easy town for mafia to hide in at this point in time.", which is 4.

How do you create stories?

Start with a hook, which is the event or situation that makes the story worth caring about. Come up with some expository details and then start from the beginning, trying to develop events naturally while leading them toward the hook. The majority of stories I create are just idle amusement and will never be told to anyone or written down, so they often trail off without an ending, but even when they do reach an ending it's often not a satisfying/conclusive one.

Sort full player PoE list at this point in time:

(most town)

Something_Smart
OutWorldER
Almost50, Andresvmb, Aristeia, Datisi, Frogsterking, House, innocentvillager, Laplacian, Reformed Toxic Player, skitter30, VP Baltar (tie)

(most mafia)

Thank you very much for completing it! I'm glad you did because I have exponentially more information about where you stand in the game and where you're coming from.

I hope you're town and that more town players will follow suit and complete the survey. I believe it's against mafia's win condition to allow several town players to collaborate and complete the survey together because of the threat of a town block forming. However it's also against mafia's best interest to complete the survey and provide information which can always be referenced back to them because they will have less flexibility later on.

And as reluctant as some players have been to complete the survey, imagine how much more reluctant you would be to complete the survey as scum, where you are actively participating against your win con.

[Frogsterking]

completing the survey would be the first thing i would do as scum because i don't believe for a second that someone who has zero prior experience with me can accurately read my alignment based on seeing a personality test report

I don't think you understand accurately enough yet what I'm trying to communicate to you in order for you to dismiss it.

The test given in Part 1 is not a personality test, at least not one you would ordinarily encounter in day to day scenarios, because those tests don't have test validity or predictive value, those are made to sell things and have not been statistically validated. This isn't giving you a type of personality, this is measuring your temperament across five dimensions. I don't care if it helps me determine your alignment, I can interact better with you just by knowing your temperament, and we can see problems coming ahead of time if all of us are extreme in certain directions. The five factor model appears like a personality test on the surface because it's simple to understand and we are used to personality tests. However, this is built from a quantitative model that has been peer reviewed extensively and has predictive value. People like this VD Basar guy are closed minded because they believe they already know what's important so there's no need to study statistics, which leads to pathetic displays like he is showing here where he is completely unable to understand the difference between a factor model and a simple personality test because he doesn't understand the concept of test validity and validating a construct.

Please don't allow people like VD Basar to influence you away from discovering new resources that are useful because it would invalidate their ego to admit some of their assumptions about the world are completely and dangerously wrong.

This is taken from the web page I linked to:

Purpose of this On-Line Inventory

The primary purpose of this on line inventory is to educate the public about the five factor model of personality.
More specifically, the report explains the likely consequences of one's standing on five broad personality domains.
These broad domains cover normal differences in personality that should be obvious to people who know you well.
Secondarily, this inventory estimates your standing on the 5 broad domains and 30 subdomains of personality.
The inventory does not reveal hidden, secret information about you nor does it assess serious psychological disorders.
The report is designed to be objective, not pleasing or flattering.
Measurement error, misunderstandings, carelessness, and mischievous responding can invalidate the report.
If knowledgeable acquaintances disagree with the test results, then the results are wrong.

[Frogsterking]

fun fact: i actually held a short seminar last year on the topic of the big five personality traits as a part of my finals. i am well aware what they are.

i see no point in taking the test because i don't think it will be a net-benefit to town. on the subject of reading my alignment - i would answer it the same way regardless if i was town or scum. i consider myself a good enough scum player that i don't need to fake or skew any parts of my personality in order to achieve something in-game, so it's pretty unlikely it will help you in that regard. and as for my temperament - why should i be giving you a roadmap on how to interact with me? if you are scum, it gives you a headstart if you know how to use the data i presented. in either case, it makes *you* more difficult to read for *me* because i'm now aware you will be using my responses when you speak to me, and i don't like seeing filtered thoughts like that.

the idea of knowing our temperaments so that we can potentially work together better is nice on paper, but i don't think it's that simple in practice. in order for it to work, i'd have to trust you're town (and i see no reason to right now), and even then it might mask important reactions.

I respect this line of thinking, and I think that choosing not to take the survey from an informed perspective is a response to the survey in and of itself which could be AI, like I think Something_Smart pointed out earlier.

My intuition tells me: that I could have entered a t v t death tunnel and that innocentvillager is a likely scum flip.

UNVOTE: VP For now, take a break, reset, come back later tonight with a fresh look.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: iv

Plz note this is e2, if it goes higher soonish i will probably unvote to prevent a fast day

I'm somewhat suspicious of house, maybe vp but idk how to read him too

No skitter omg don't stop the thought train make it a vote train I was trying to stay away from the thread for a few more hours but I went for a walk and I couldn't stop drafting this great post in my head that scum cased house based on VP = VI in a tvt with me and house preferring to take VP with him to lylo over me but willing to hammer either so shading me but not committing either way, and house dropping a TMI with his weird read on innocentvillager (though I don't know if he's trying to get town cred by defending a lurker he knows is townie or trying to protect his scum buddy because i sr iv's apathy as well he said he joined because the playerlist was interesting so why isn't he more interested?).

I'm reading VP as a VI that is unusually toxic and almost unreadable as scum. I think he is most likely town in this game.

VOTE: house
I'm far from opposed to a iv execution but I think this is more devastating for scum team because house has influenced the game more and this could be their only shot at a deep scum.

I'm expecting house to role fish and my read is strong enough I'm willing to go through with the execution even without a counter claim, unlss a town win seems so likely it's not worth the small chance house is actually town and a pr.

My only caveat wth a house wagon is if it builds too quickly I'm not super sure about my 3rd FoS at this point in time, maybe Lap or Andre? I think D1 use is extremely important to town win rate.

My fantasy post started with a town case on Datisi and Something_Smart btw, with the caveat that there's a small chance Something_Smart may be opportunistic scum who seized the opportunity to pocket three townies at once. But this caveat is also advantageous because it also increases the chances IMO that VP is VI.

[Frogsterking]

Not to vt tell but i realized that this game is actuslly even easier than i thought because PRs exist

What does this even mean???

As for the survey, I sure hope Mr Frog isn't counting on me to fill THAT out. I usually skim/skip wall posts, so I'm not about to not only read one, but actually respond to it. (Besides, it's been over 25 years since I last took an exam, and I dread reliving the memory).

I would prefer if you did fill that out actually since you've barely posted and what you did post was super weird.

[Frogsterking]

I'm somewhat suspicious of house, maybe vp but idk how to read him too

spicy, tell me more?

R.e. house: i dont like feeling wk'd,

i dont understand why he dislikes frog,

and i dont understand his readshift on you

Pedit ok one sec i need to like read and process fhat

Omg yeah! I've felt like when I get stuck in a death tunnel it seems like players that are super closed to my POV are more likely to flip scum.

[Frogsterking]

I'm somewhat suspicious of house, maybe vp but idk how to read him too

spicy, tell me more?

R.e. house: i dont like feeling wk'd,

i dont understand why he dislikes frog,

and i dont understand his readshift on you

Pedit ok one sec i need to like read and process fhat

Omg yeah! I've felt like when I get stuck in a death tunnel it seems like players that are super closed to my POV are more likely to flip scum.

Also what does "wk'd" mean? I saw you use it earlir in this game and I tried to look up what it meant and all I found was "wanked" on urban dictionary.

[Frogsterking]

White knighted - i.e. didnt like he was popping in my bickering with ari to try to get ari off my back

See I didn't even notice that tell at all and im already at the torches and pitchforks level.

At this point in time I believe house really needs to be the D1 lynch in this game.

I was going to include in my case that there simply wasn't anything I noticed at gamestart; house played well and he got me to town read him, and I think it's due to his strong scum play and that needs to be accepted.

It may be difficult to vote him due to a primacy bias where he was town read strong at the start so now it's difficult to turn around the perception even though the signs are there.

The mistakes that my case are built on all occur during the opening-early game transition. It's possible this is his main weakness as scum and if we lose the opportunity to punish it he will carry. There is an idea in process control called whitespace (for some reason) where errors in a system occur more often during a handoff of the process flow between parties. For example when one party has to review something and then send it down the line to someone else, it gets lost. I have a theory expertise works in a similar way, so the instincts for a scum opener and scum early game develop independently and mistakes occur because there is not a smooth "handoff" between the knowledge bases when the stage of the game is more ambiguous and contains elements of both.

And Pedit yes Datisi I see what you mean about the racing thoughts and I think I'm onto something but I need to calm down, I think it's obvtowning when i see it in others and I think your obvtown and it will be easier to win if we work together.

[Frogsterking]

I'm far from opposed to a iv execution but I think this is more devastating for scum team because house has influenced the game more and this could be their only shot at a deep scum.

I'm calling bullshit.

#1

What actual townie ever says, "I have no actual basis for thinking this person is scum, but on the off chance they actually might be, let's just kill them... ON DAY ONE?

#2

#3

Supposed " deep wolf hunting" on day one reeks of scum intent because it gives the wagon driver the perfect excuse for a green flip.

#4

VOTE: Frog

#5

Fuck that shit, you bring a case or vote fucking scum.

#1

This is a logical fallacy called a strawman, I never said those words, even if you disagree with the reasons I scum read you it's clear that FMPOV I have good reasons for doing so and am not pushing based on some kind of off chance, so this is a misrepresentation of my view to make your view sound more convincing.

#2

You are overreacting btw. You seem really concerned with having your name show up in the vote count. Like..you seem REALLY concerned your name is up in the vote count.

#3

This could be a playstyle thing but players who don't think they can have high luck high skill situations with a good town on D1 annoy me, obviously if you can execute the scum player most likely to cost you the game that's an even better start than executing the scum player who lurks out and is getting wagoned every day anyway. Also, it sounds here like you are not particularly interested in executing deep wolves.

#4

#5

It does look like you felt a need to qualify your vote here before joining the wagon. Like what were you waiting for before I FoS you? You just sitting around letting the other players push each other trying not to get wagoned or join too many wagons? I see you sitting in that previous votecount behind Datisi who is most likely town, sitting quietly on some wagon that is going nowhere not pushing it until 1 person votes you.

[Frogsterking]

Like what were you waiting for before I FoS you?

Refer to 377/379.

You're not even TRYING to game solve. You just threw a dart and started pushing.

I am not the one.

I mean these also don't look you care about pushing anyone or voting scum?

And it reads like your anger is about being caught randomly while playing what you believe to be a great scum game, not like your indignant that I can't fathom how earnest and pro town you are.

Vote Count 1.04

Frogsterking (3):

Andresvmb, Laplacian, VP Baltar

innocentvillager (2):

Reformed Toxic Player, OutWorldER

Datisi (2):

innocentvillager, House

Laplacian (2):

Datisi, Aristeia

VP Baltar (1):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (3):

Almost50, Something_Smart, skitter30

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

I thought i was voting Scorpious?

Oops.

VOTE: Scorpious

Damn, I'm tired.

UNVOTE:

BBL

It looks like you didn't want to get stuck on a wagon for too long with innocentvillager.

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys I read Lap's most recent posts as pr so don't wagon him please if he doesn't seem to be town telling.

[Frogsterking]

Oh i meant "pr" as in "power reader". I think Lap is a power reader so we should not get rid of him because we might need him. Lap, who do you think is the mafia?

[Frogsterking]

Actually House really seems like he thinks my play is suboptimal, i feel like a scum might not push that aspect so hard but i don't know what his scum range is.

[Frogsterking]

Shoot, mod?

--deleted duplicate posts

[Frogsterking]

i didn't say anything about your vp read? that's *my* vp read ...

and i also didn't say that you have a tmi read on iv, that's what frog said, i'm repeating it to show you that he thinks he has more reasons to scumread you then 'there's no case so you must be scum!1!!!'

i don't know what iv read he's referring to, you can ask him if you like

I know, which you're agreeing with MY vp read.

Considering he's straight up lying about me having TMI on iv, my posts about him, seven single damned one of them, stand.

House if you're town you need to chill so we can talk.

[Frogsterking]

House if you're town you need to chill so we can talk.

Okay great. Maybe I made some mistakes about your intentions and we are t v t?

[Frogsterking]

House if you're town you need to chill so we can talk.

Okay great. Maybe I made some mistakes about your intentions and we are t v t?

How is anything I posted in regards to iv prior to your vote on me remotely suggestive of being scum TMI'ing town?

I thought that may have been what you were going for when you made the statement about them being "Old Guard".

[Frogsterking]

I would hammer frog over Baltar 10 times out of 10, at this point.

Still prefer Scorpious, though.

Ok really frog is town theyre just pushing silly strategy which isnt scummy just ambitious :3

Yeah, maybe. I find the extremely questionable framing and not answering simple questions pretty anti-town, but he might just play like shit so idk.

Not to mention, not answering questions is pretty inconsistent coming from a player that's wanting everyone to answer a long ass RQS.

These posts were what made me think you were instigating a t v t and planning to miselim one of us and take another to lylo.

The comment about the "old guard" seemed mysterious, like you had more information, and in context despite what you said about being wary you chose not to join in on the innocentvillager wagon when there didn't appear to be a lot going for them.

It doesn't seem believable to me any more. I think I was in my head and I want it to stop.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: House

[Frogsterking]

i'm kinda changing my mind on iv tbh, i think he's somewhat townie

Who do you FoS then?

[Frogsterking]

Kumbaya it is, I suppose... despite my best efforts to the contrary.

This is what I was thinking. I think having a bunch of town reads is technically a good thing, but it still means I have no idea what to do.

[Frogsterking]

k if I've spent all game arguing with town my latest guess is a50/Lap/? scum team.

[Frogsterking]

I was in the game that Frogster used his SSS thing (assuming he's referring to 2185). It required taking a psychometric test (OCEAN) and I don't remember it being used for much outside of D1.

though that game was a fuck-fest in several ways so I'm not surprised Frogster would want to test his theory out in another game.

Lapla feels a lot like newb town to me. The post that Dats is getting him on feels like a new town that's unsure of himself, especially when faced with the possibility of some strange new survey (from his perspective). I also don't agree with the whole "giving Frogster a roadmap to get on his goodside" bit since, he's just, not? I'm not sure how to phrase how I feel about that bit.

The general concept around Lap!scum is that it's time to put your Newbie Queue scum radar back on. This is the right idea brought up in the quote above, but the wrong conclusion: Lap isn't newb town that's unsure of himself he's newb scum in a normal on a team with a50..

The thematic connection of the a50/Lap/

?

scum team is "strange awkward lurkers just trying to get by"

Okay, I'm caught up and Frogsterking's post stuck out the most for me. It feels a lot like "I made a helpful town thing, look how townie I am!". If he posts the survey and it is legit helpful, then consider this retracted, but until then it's blatantly grabbing for trust.
VOTE: Frogsterking

This was the first post that started to draw Lap negative attention. But look at the posts leading up to it:

House, you should reveal as IC so we can add "twice" to your sig.

Nah.

Hardclaim: Town Jester

sorry, "claim" would be more accurate. it needs those quotes

awkward jokey trying to fit in

RTP gives me townfeels as well. nothing concrete, but silly posts + cute bunny with a tragic past goes a long way towards building trust

outs a super fake town read on RTP who he knows is town already.

I've played one game with House so far, and this is exactly how he acted as town in that one, including the fast af claim

outs a super fake read on House who he knows already is town.

Vote Count 1.02

innocentvillager (4):

Reformed Toxic Player, OutWorldER, Datisi, Aristeia

Datisi (2):

innocentvillager, House

VP Baltar (1):

Frogsterking

OutWorldER (1):

VP Baltar

Frogsterking (1):

Andresvmb

Not Voting (4):

Almost50, Laplacian, Something_Smart, skitter30

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

[/color]

This is the vote count before Lap's newb vote.

In this paradigm of scum!a50 along with scum!Lap, Lap (who is noob) wants to get away from scum buddy a50 in the Not Voting pool.

Notice how in a town!Andre world Lap can shove himself up with Andre's RVS vote while using my initial post as an excuse and pretend like he's on a BW.

Now those were some background details of what initially drew Lap the negative attention. I want to move forward and showcase what Lap did following the bad start:

I don't know Laplacian's alignment, but he makes me laugh.

I aim to please

This is just like a literal scum tell. And possibly not a coincidence either. What in the world is Laplacian talking about in this post?

Anyway, while Big 5 / FFM was made up by actual psychologists and is used in some research, it was still made by taking an assload of subjective observational data, tossing it into a bag of linear algebra, shaking them together and hoping it works. The results are non-orthogonal, omit fundamental aspects of human nature, and traits like neuroticism trivially change based on the testee's mood. Saying "factor analysis" isn't a pass btw; algorithms are biased if their data is biased. My personal favorite was a hiring algorithm where the strongest traits it looked for were playing high-school lacrosse and being named Jared. Yes, researchers get results out of OCEAN tests. Alchemists got results too. Pretending this survey is objective and flawless is peak comedy, and accusing people of being closed minded for dismissing it is some freshmen psych student bullshit.

What the hell is Lap even talking about here. And why the mildly pissed off tone? Who is out to get Lap? This post seems like it could be thrown out to get street cred with VP or anyone else who disliked the survey or make it seem like Lap is taking a hard stance on something, like the wagon they happen to be sitting on.

Oh yeah..Lap is on a BW. Remember??

This one:

Spoiler:

Vote Count 1.04

Frogsterking (3):

Andresvmb, Laplacian, VP Baltar

innocentvillager (2):

Reformed Toxic Player, OutWorldER

Datisi (2):

innocentvillager, House

Laplacian (2):

Datisi, Aristeia

VP Baltar (1):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (3):

Almost50, Something_Smart, skitter30

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

[/color]

Let's go back in time to Lap's interaction with Datisi to better understand Lap's view and where he left us with his stance on the BW he is a part of:

i could give it a watch once my uni responsibilities die down a bit! if i start watching it now and it's good, i won't stop until i finish it, and that's not good news for my grades.

Okay, I'm caught up and Frogsterking's post stuck out the most for me. It feels a lot like "I made a helpful town thing, look how townie I am!".

If he posts the survey and it is legit helpful, then consider this retracted

, but until then it's blatantly grabbing for trust.
VOTE: Frogsterking

anyway, now that i'm back from my walk - this is not a town post. the bolded is what especially bugs me. *what* is the point of that? assume laplacian is town. why would he post this? why would he be giving his scumread a roadmap on how to get back on his good side? i feel like a townie here who finds the exsitence or lackthereof of the survey would wait to see if the person posts it themselves. this feels more like trying to overjustify their scumread rather than actually trying to read someone.

if this were an older player, i could see this being a reaction test of some sort, but i think it's less likely to be one coming from a new player, so.

First, I'm assuming that he was posting it no matter what. Since saying "I'll post this useful town survey" and then not posting it is even more sketchy. Reevaluating my stance when the survey appears is just natural, and so it's natural to say it.

Second... okay, yeah, explaining what would change my mind is definitely a habit I get should rid of in mafia. Establishing what would change your mind is great for real life, bad for scumhunting. I stand by my vote though.

Okay..cool story Lap. It's nice that you stand by your vote and the American way and your so open about what your thinking and learn from your mistakes. Now the nadir of Lap of all things leaves us with this:

I should probably actually play the game too. frogster is townlean because of the sheer effort but I'm leaving the vote on them anyway because I scored 0.16969% on the openness temperament and a 420% on the grumpy at misusing psych tests trait. House still town, Datsi's giving me good townfeels too with good contributions and thought out posts

First I want to point out the Datisi town read Lap kindly pulls out of his ass for us.

Primarily though the worst part of the quote above is how he uses it to justify his continued existence on a wagon in this hypothetical game state below:

green = town and red = scum, and House very vocally wants to see me executed

(I may have grabbed the wrong VC actually and House had moved to my wagon when 458 was posted by Lap, but you can still get the idea)

Vote Count 1.04

Frogsterking

(3):

Andresvmb

,

Laplacian

,

VP Baltar

innocentvillager (2):

Reformed Toxic Player, OutWorldER

Datisi (2):

innocentvillager,

House

Laplacian (2):

Datisi, Aristeia

VP Baltar (1):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (3):

Almost50, Something_Smart, skitter30

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

It seems a little convenient to decide to sit on the town wagon you've not followed up on since you've received negative attention, along with other townies voting for a miselim, and you choose to stay there simply because of your vendetta against the incorrect use of psych tests.

Now to wrap up my case I grabbed more examples of Lap being weird and awkward and active lurky, just trying to stay alive and park his vote on a medium sized wagon while town is paranoid and death tunnels each other:

I'm not sure if I should be more offended by the double vote, or by them both immediately moving on to talk about anime. Ouch

laplacian i think u could be town talk to me :3

Hell yeah let's talk. Have any good food lately? I made porkchops with a mushroom & whiskey sauce last night, was pretty tasty.

Laplacian do u hate me :c I wanna talk to u and u ignore me :c :c :C

Not ignoring, just typing slow :3

Food is just as good as the game though, just saying...

As for innocentvillager, yeah, little sus. Three posts with one vote, one "Im town", and one about naked voting. And if naked voting is wrong, I should probably get some pants

The survey says I'm a Taurus and should be in Ravenclaw, pretty sure that makes me town.

Thank you for reading my case on scum!Lap which is congruent within the scum!a50 framework. Now my question to you is if you buy into this framework, who is the third?

[Frogsterking]

my solve has been vp/iv/laplacian for a while now :3 I largely townread everyone else here

What are the benefits or logic of a VP/iv/Lap solve rather than a a50/Lap solve?

BTW VOTE: Lap

[Frogsterking]

House
innocentvillager

VP Baltar
Frogsterking
Aristeia

Datisi
Laplacian

OutWorldER
Reformed Toxic Player

Something_Smart
Andresvmb
skitter30

Almost50

I would be surprised if any in the dark green flipped scum.

Almost red flip = 1-2 in the pink & 0-1 in yellow/light green
Almost green flip = 2 in the pink, 1 in yellow/light green

Thank you for reading my case on scum!Lap which is congruent within the scum!a50 framework.

Kinda makes me wonder why you don't want to vote A50, who has a viable & growing wagon.

Mostly the choice is personal against Lap and I understand the logic of why Lap is scum better. I don't have meta on a50 so I'm just taking my horde of town reads at their word this is definitely not a50's town play. I'm down to switch.

I just took a look at your framework and it makes sense FMPOV with Lap being the light green flip and 1 in the pink, following a red a50 flip.

I think if you read this game like a Newbie Queue game with a disorganized scum team it's easier to understand the Lap FoS.

I want to hear more from reformed about their theory.

[Frogsterking]

Also I'm not really caught up nor do I do intend to fully catchup really but I think calling my naked vote bad for the sake of it being a naked vote by itself is bad but I don't have any opinion on who's scummy for that

I was caught up to something like here, but IV actually has posted since. I can take a look myself.

House and I stop death tunneling each other eventually. If you're rereadng I guess my recommendation would be to keep an eye out for Lap, a50, and iv, they're a part of a few players solve. House also includes one or more of skitter, you or Something_Smart in their solve and Reformed has VP in their solve.

[Frogsterking]

@Frog I’ll be honest, I think it’s quite worthwhile trying to sort through whether RTP is Town. If you lean positively there, then consider sheeping the slot. I definitely have to put in the work because it’ll give me some confidence that I don’t have to bumble in the dark like an idiot. I also feel like my confidence has taken a hit lately with the way I really ruined an Endgame recently, so I am trying not to push too hard myself.

I sorted RTP as scum and then they immediately dropped two town tells while we were posting relatively alone together during the day. If they're as brilliant as you say I could definitely have been played.

It could be paranoia, but I guess it's worth going back to.

I understand what RTP is saying about the Lap part of their solve, but maybe I'm missing something with iv and VP. If RTP is hard to read it might be better to try and reverse engineer their solve and see if it checks out.

[Frogsterking]

The very rough idea Andre..

At the conclusion of my big survey template post:

Sort full player PoE list at this point in time:

(most town)
Frogsterking
skitter30
House
Datisi
Aristeia
Almost50
OutWorldER
Laplacian
Andresvmb
innocentvillager
Something_Smart
Reformed Toxic Player
VP Baltar
(most mafia)

Nope :3

You called me mafia so im all set hehe

You called me mafia so im all set hehe

Understandable from an emotional point of view.

IMO completing the survey anyway will move you close to the top of my PoE.

Don't care im im control today and we're limming in my poe hehe

You have my solve in the bottom half so;3

@all FYI I think RTP is town telling on this page.

I spectated a game with frog and theyre very different tonally here ^.^

Ok really frog is town theyre just pushing silly strategy which isnt scummy just ambitious :3

Not to vt tell but i realized that this game is actuslly even easier than i thought because PRs exist

I consider myself old school mafia wise and ive been playing since 2016 lol

Glad to not be at the top there for once datisi:3

here are reads that have a 140% chance of making me look like an idiot in post-game

the closer to the left edge you are, the more i townread you
the closer to the right edge you are, the more i scumread you
and the further up you are, the bigger the headache you give me

Spoiler:

Frogster is playing mostly how I remember them playing in 2185, very forceful and ambitious. As a side note, I am mad about 2185 being linked since it's been a year and I'm still angry about that game.

Although @Frogster why is (was? did your read change drastically at 307?) RTP a big scumread for you?

I don't like that game either, I like most of the players, but I don't like reading my posts, I think I drank too much back then.

_____

I did ISOs before posting the survey and I interpreted RTP's first dozen or so pages as an experienced scum appearing relaxed and unconcerned about what others think. This is because they seemed irreverent, disorderly, and changed their posting style, combined with no indication of moving the discussion forward or scum hunting. I interpret this to be well within the expected range of an experienced scum player.

My read did change drastically since then based on RTP's reaction to my survey (which contained my PoE placing them near the very bottom) and flawed attempt to meta dive me because they made me think that they genuinely are interested in moving things forward and they have indeed been scum hunting. I weight this extra heavily because they responded to me in real time, where most of my experience is. I do not think RTP's behavior since my FoS in the survey post is within the expected range of scum play.

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys I read Lap's most recent posts as pr so don't wagon him please if he doesn't seem to be town telling.

plz dont' say such things ... >.>

I second that. After all we are well capable of sniffing them PRs on our own.

I was so relieved when I started town reading House and I realized I didn't have to try and get Lap night killed I could just execute them myself.

[Frogsterking]

Monkey Business is this your usual M.O.?

Andre do you want me to make like an actual RTP deep dive? That stuff was the turning point in time where I went from scum reading to town reading RTP, but at that point in time I thought they were like just an above average player.

[Frogsterking]

I realized I didn't have to try and get Lap night killed I could just execute them myself.

What is, "stuff scum says" for $800, Alex?

what about monkey business screams trustworthy to you?

[Frogsterking]

@Frog not to bash your case too much, but what I’m seeing from the quotes is that you’re basically backing RTP as Town because they called your reads bad, your strategy flawed, but concluded you’re Town and you what? Vibe with the confidence? I’m just confused haha talk to me about that.

I think RTP is probably a bit more over the top / belligerent as Scum. And they’re not pushing their case all that hard. Unfortunately this just means I’m actually going to have to read myself. That’ll have to wait until tomorrow.

Yeah I agree Andre, all I really know about this player list is that Datisi is a mod and I played with OutWorldER once. At the time I fipped my reads on RTP I was thinking on the level that RTP was some kind of light hearted troll with a talent for the game.

[Frogsterking]

Monkey Business is this your usual M.O.?

Andre do you want me to make like an actual RTP deep dive? That stuff was the turning point in time where I went from scum reading to town reading RTP, but at that point in time I thought they were like just an above average player.

They’re not just above average but that’s all I’ll say haha they’re just good to play with. And that’s with them as either alignment, though I still resent that Friendly Neighbor gambit they pulled against me.

I suggest you firm up what you make of the slot, and share it with the class. It’ll help me settle more firmly on what I think about you. And who knows, maybe it helps me with sorting RTP.

Yeah I like the sound of this plan, I think this gives me a good direction to go in for tomorrow morning.

[Frogsterking]

Monkey Business is this your usual M.O.?

Pretty much, yeah. I mean, you can check my previous games to verify the fact (and hopefully find a game or two were I was NOT active on D1 too)

Okay I will do that tomorrow morning. While you're here, do you have any thoughts as to why you are being BWed right now? Just for kicks, random chance, scum, misinformed townies? Or do you normally get BWed and you just ignore it until it goes away?

[Frogsterking]

@Datisi

Datisi's question:

Spoiler:

i had a dream i was modding a dance game and s_s flipped red, and the final 4 was peta/ydrasse and pooky/gypyx and gypyx was scum, but i didn't mod the game properly from that point on and i got permabanned. anyway this game yes

Would like to hear ur reasoning to tr house (tom of course)
Night dats!

i love how this post has the subtle tone of "for the love of fuck, go to sleep"

anyway, at the time, my townread consisted mostly of his "scumread" on me. like, he started attacking a generally townread person with reasoning that was so batshit insane it wasn't going to convince anyone, and it would only attract heat his way. so like what was the point. having slept on it, i'll admit this isn't really Rock Solid because i don't have enough experience w house to know if he does shit like that as scum. my first thought is a no, because people *generally* don't do that as scum, but i can't say for certain

No skitter omg don't stop the thought train make it a vote train I was trying to stay away from the thread for a few more hours but I went for a walk and I couldn't stop drafting this great post in my head that scum cased house based on VP = VI in a tvt with me and

house preferring to take VP with him to lylo over me but willing to hammer either

so shading me but not committing either way, and

house dropping a TMI with his weird read on innocentvillager

(though I don't know if he's trying to get town cred by defending a lurker he knows is townie or trying to protect his scum buddy because i sr iv's apathy as well he said he joined because the playerlist was interesting so why isn't he more interested?).

frogster, could you link/quote where you think house is doing the bolded? my knee-jerk reaction to this post yesterday was "what", but i feel like i should be doing my due diligence here so

Datsi

who?

Datisi - You know what's fucked? The only other time I can remember Datisi easy town reading me early was in 2195* when he was scum. I know this because he talks about this game a lot and I actually just looked it up. Other than that, has seemed townish. Would not yeet D1.

while i like the ~initiative~ and ~proactivity~ that this post brings, i'm not sure how much i like the fact that a lot of this post is... "lol idk haha". also, didn't we just have a realization that only scum posts readslists early?

in any case, the part on me is correct, the one and only time i publicly townread you early was when i was scum. what about my play is "townish" enough to offset that point for you?

re house's 496: being disconnected from the game and being not engaged in a game are not the same thing, but ok

ok i'm gonna vegetate for a bit here, be back in a bit

Quote of me answering same question from House earlier:

Spoiler:

I would hammer frog over Baltar 10 times out of 10, at this point.

Still prefer Scorpious, though.

Ok really frog is town theyre just pushing silly strategy which isnt scummy just ambitious :3

Yeah, maybe. I find the extremely questionable framing and not answering simple questions pretty anti-town, but he might just play like shit so idk.

Not to mention, not answering questions is pretty inconsistent coming from a player that's wanting everyone to answer a long ass RQS.

These posts were what made me think you were instigating a t v t and planning to miselim one of us and take another to lylo.

The comment about the "old guard" seemed mysterious, like you had more information, and in context despite what you said about being wary you chose not to join in on the innocentvillager wagon when there didn't appear to be a lot going for them.

It doesn't seem believable to me any more. I think I was in my head and I want it to stop.

Also, this part from Datisi 585 was helpful to my townread of skitter a little bit:

not engaged = not posting much
being disconnected = posting things that are obviously out of tune to what is happening in the game

like if i now disappeared for the next 48 hours, that's not engaged. if i now dropped a case on how the scumteam is house/vp/frogsterking because they decided they will start the game by doing a ton of nonsense pointless theater, that's disconnected.

inb4 that actually is the team and i am being stupid

i think that is how skitter was using it, so

I was wondering what they meant too, it looks like skitter is saying it seems townie that I doubled back out of paranoia and wasted lots of time chasing red herrings, like a reverse TMI being used as a town tell, and partly it's townie in this context with me because I don't seem to get anything out of it so it doesn't have a clear scum intent behind it. Okay, that makes sense to me.

[Frogsterking]

Two things I want to ask of the playerlist as a whole concerning the immediate state of the game:

#1

Do you think any or all of Lap, iv, a50 are lunchbait?

#2

Is there any reason why any or all of these wagons

can't

be scum lead, or at least largely pushed by scum?

[Frogsterking]

#1 Do you think any or all of Lap, iv, a50 are lunchbait?

#2 Is there any reason why any or all of these wagons can't be scum lead, or at least largely pushed by scum?

i can see a universe where town!iv is playing like this, and he always reads scummy to me early anyway, so sure. a50 can definitely be yeetbait *if* the town is one of those to think weird = scummy. no clue on lap, i might try to do a cursory meta check tonight when i come home, but no promises.

i don't think there is? like, my own reads tell me the answer is "the wagons are town-motivated", but my own reads are at least lightly townreading everyone but those three + s_s, so either i'm the next paragon or we're fucking up somewhere. if we're talking about ~gamestate~ reads, i would guess that there exist representatives of both alignments in the three names. mostly, it seems to me like there's similar people jumping from one wagon to another, but there is enough difference in the reads of the wagoners that i can't help but feel that at least some of it is agenda-based and intentional.

i know this is a super vague non-answer, but i don't think i have any better at this point in time.

Is Paragon a real person?

[Frogsterking]

a@50

I looked into some of your town games on your wiki which were played in Mini Normals as well as some of your most recent games which were played in Mini Normals. I could have been more thorough I guess. I went about mainly clicking through the first half of D1s and checking the isos.

It definitely appears as though you're holding back at some points in this game. I think it's worse since you don't appear to have problems vibing with this player list. The way you pop in and make that claim and then don't post any filler, pop back and talk about the claim again, that looks like you consciously decided not to include some filler posts in there.

The only thing I'll say in a50's defense is that the D1s never really looked that solvey anyway, the solviness was coming from a50 the more days there were, so I don't know if the "a50 not being helpful" aspect of the read is valid.

A couple more things:

Not to vt tell but i realized that this game is actuslly even easier than i thought because PRs exist

What does this even mean???

As for the survey, I sure hope Mr Frog isn't counting on me to fill THAT out. I usually skim/skip wall posts, so I'm not about to not only read one, but actually respond to it. (Besides, it's been over 25 years since I last took an exam, and I dread reliving the memory).

Long Qualifier not taking the survey.

(most town)
Something_Smart
OutWorldER
Almost50, Andresvmb, Aristeia, Datisi, Frogsterking, House, innocentvillager, Laplacian, Reformed Toxic Player, skitter30, VP Baltar (tie)
(most mafia)

This is a wild reads list.

Tell me more about skitter, laplacian, RTP and andres please

May I ask why these specific four? I mean, his read basically says he TRs OutWorlderER and has no read on anyone else, and I thought that would be more worthy to question.

This seems overly polite IMO and I don't think there's any follow up.

[Frogsterking]

So now my main question, why does RTP trust a50?

[Frogsterking]

a50 is the only null methinks

Oh I guess they don't.

[Frogsterking]

Okay now I'm beginning to understand RTP's solve.

Hi all..

I've got some good news and I've got some bad news: The good news is this is my first game since I was released from a 1-month ban. The bad news is

I picked up some other hobbies while I was anxiously waiting for the "quick reply box" to reappear on my screen

, so I won't be as active. (P.S. before I was grounded I had gained some momentum and was trying to get my overall post count up significantly. The "time out" I'm afraid killed my motivation)

Spoiler: More about the coloured bit

It's nothing too complicated. I've just hit a few youtube channels and I'm wasting my time watching almost anything from quantum mechanics and origin of the universe to Steve Harvey on family feud.

Enough ranting, yeah? All I want to say is that I'm either a bloody MILLER, an INFORMED Townie, or merely a Flavoured/Named VT. Make of that what you will. Thanks for letting me say my piece.

Maybe a50 meta has changed and they just telling the truth from the beginning?

Vote Count 1.05

innocentvillager (3):

OutWorldER, Datisi, Aristeia

Almost50 (3):

VP Baltar, House, skitter30

Frogsterking (2):

Andresvmb, Laplacian

Laplacian (2):

Reformed Toxic Player,Frogsterking

Datisi (1):

innocentvillager

Not Voting (2):

Almost50, Something_Smart

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

RTP thinks VP is pushing the a50 wagon to save their lurksack partners. Before the a50 wagon VP was pushing me for the survey idea, and RTP thinks VP was also pushing me primarily to draw attention away from his partners.

Now all this raises two more questions:

Does RPM believe Lap and VP would both push me together for the survey idea without becoming paranoid about distancing each other?

Why does RPM have a50 as null but iv as scum? What differentiates the behavior of the two?

[Frogsterking]

RTP*

[Frogsterking]

Why do you think these responses are towny? The Datisi one I can maybe maybe see, but definitely not the VP Baltar one.

Counterpoint, mine was the towniest answer.

Why?

Because that is what I would do as scum. Take the survey and just tank the results by lying.

Idk maybe, that feels way too first order though. I think scum could approach this in more ways than just that. Maybe it's because I got here late after he posted the survey, but I don't really feel there's that much benefit for scum to take the survey at all.

I already proved it isn't effective by pulling his reads from the last game he used it in.

Posting it is NAI at best imo. It isn't going to lead to actually catching scum, and that's my main problem with it. If he's town, I'd like to dissuade him from pulling this in future games.

That's not how math works - if I claim to have a model that predicts a 50% event with 75% probability and I predict wrong in one instance, that doesn't prove my model is trash.

ok vp's town

Okay, why?

RTP claims to believe deep down in their heart that the above interaction is theater.

[Frogsterking]

VP, how did you feel when RTP first suggested their VP/iv/Lap solve?

[Frogsterking]

VP, how did you feel when RTP first suggested their VP/iv/Lap solve?

Seems like an unlikely solve when 2/3 in your solve are or were in lurker territory and I'm the fucking shining light of towniness.

What's actually concerning though is that RTP states that as their solve, has a viable wagon on iv, and then abandons it for a less viable Lap wagon. Doesn't have a ring of actually believing in your solve.

You think scum are not in lurkers?

[Frogsterking]

VP, how did you feel when RTP first suggested their VP/iv/Lap solve?

Seems like an unlikely solve when 2/3 in your solve are or were in lurker territory and I'm the fucking shining light of towniness.

What's actually concerning though is that RTP states that as their solve, has a viable wagon on iv, and then abandons it for a less viable Lap wagon. Doesn't have a ring of actually believing in your solve.

You think scum are not in lurkers?

They could be. Are most of the scum in the lurkers with a player list where most of the players are reasonably competent as scum? Unlikely.

So what makes you like the a50 wagon and not the iv wagon?

And it sounds like you FoS RTP.

[Frogsterking]

So what makes you like the a50 wagon and not the iv wagon?

And it sounds like you FoS RTP.

Eh, I wouldn't go that far on RTP yet. They could just have their head up their ass a bit and be lazy. I think their reads aren't great right now, and Koba is usually pretty on it, but I want to see more.

On a50 and iv, I think their "returns" to the game are notable. Iv is at least being active and giving thoughts. A50 just omgused people voting him and claims people are voting him because he made the same fake PR claim he does all the time? Seems like scum floundering to me! Get on this wagon everyone.

Wow you're a lot more patient than I am, if someone were shading me all day and pushing my townreads I would death tunnel them.

[Frogsterking]

SS what is your stance on my earlier two questions:

Are any or all of a50, iv, and Lap lunchbait?

Is there any reason to believe any or all of the wagons have NOT been lead or influenced by scum?

[Frogsterking]

I cant really vocalize it but laplacian isnt a towny bumbling - its something in their language choice and how they approach the game that its from a solved perspective where they know the correct answers but have to avoid them

Is it tone, syntax, behavior?

[Frogsterking]

Are any or all of a50, iv, and Lap lunchbait?

Lap seems to be for sure. IV definitely not. A50 could go either way, I would lean yes in this game.

Is there any reason to believe any or all of the wagons have NOT been lead or influenced by scum?

No.

Did you read my Lap case 592?

[Frogsterking]

ffff that's a lot of posts. I'll fully respond once I'm off work, but 1. frogster's 592 case is garbage and 2. what exactly is "lunchbait"? I have ideas from context, but want to make sure.

FYI no one cares about your stupid ego and your response to my case, do something besides shit post and vote your town read.

This is Lap from another thread:

I really like Tejate's argument here (+town) and their response in 854 is correct-- The way that Laplacian is approaching MegAzumarill and their role claim is not the point at all. It's specifically the way that Lap is using the role claim as an opportunity to shade Tejate's slot without consideration for the possibility that they're a real PR. I do think Lap's response is baaad looking here and there's a

chance

it's a scum slip, but I need to see more Lap posts while I mull over my read. Either way, he should respond and then drop this case & place a real vote for end of day.

I started writing up a post using statistics and bayes's theorem to show why the binatog/Tejate slot became more suspicious with the cop claim's existence and realized two things:

1. I skipped a step in my inference - P(A or B) > 0 does not imply P(A) > 0 which wrecked my core argument. Intuitively I felt that reducing odds of a player having a town role increased odds that they are scum, but that's not strictly true.
2. Mathematically, I should actually be more suspicious of

everyone

, not just Tejate*.

So yeah, I was overly hasty and still kind of tunneled. I still don't believe Tejate has a town role because binatog's softclaim doesn't mesh well with that and the repeated phrasing from FF earlier pinged some alarm bells in my mind, but writing out a bunch of equations made me less suspicious of them. I've moved them down to scumlean, maybe vt on my list.

*suppose the odds the cop claim is real is c. Then with probability c there are 0.5** town roles and 2 scum left, or with probability 1-c there are 1.5 town roles and 1 scum left. This means there are (1+c)/8 other scum. If c > 7/9, then (1+c)/8 > 22.2%, the baseline odds of a random player being scum***. With no counter claim I feel c is pretty high, and thus should ratchet up the paranoia!

**given we have a cop, there are 0.5 average town roles remaining. Again, I could add math for "what if we don't have a cop", but then I have to add more priors and branch the probability tree even more

***before anyone tries to go "you didn't include yourself as town in the math therefore you're scummmmm" I wanted to keep this generic. Hence 2/9 as the odds a random person is scum instead of having to throw a bunch of priors in there. The same conclusions hold no matter whether you include yourself or not, plus it's easier to see how to generalize this math to any size game

[Frogsterking]

Iv is at least being active and giving thoughts.

uhh...

Why do you think these responses are towny? The Datisi one I can maybe maybe see, but definitely not the VP Baltar one.

Both responses are towny because they both seem obviously wrong, and it's more likely that scum would have given a serious thought to it and thus would accurately report how they would treat it.

what is wrong about my response?

do you think a personality test report would help someone read my in-game alignment?

If it's better not to share information about each other because it could help the mafia manipulate us, why are we talking in the thread at all? It makes no sense, and the idea that you understand the five factor model has some utility, and this makes you paranoid about the scum using test results to better manipulate us in practice even though you can acknowledge how the idea of knowing our temperaments seems good on paper is like a townie dumb tell.

[Frogsterking]

completing the survey would be the first thing i would do as scum because i don't believe for a second that someone who has zero prior experience with me can accurately read my alignment based on seeing a personality test report

I mean polygraphs have not been demonstrated to have any test validity whatsoever. They are complete pseudoscience and only a tactic to get people to confess.

If you are concealing a crime that you had committed which is actively being investigated by the police, would you volunteer to take a polygraph test since you know they have no test validity?

[Frogsterking]

frogster, i was asking s_s why he thought that my 392 is wrong but uh thanks i guess

anyway,
still don't really see why iv is townie, so @skitt/baltar/whoever the fuck, lemme know k thanks

i need to speak to rtp because like uhh just as i was able to put away my baltar paranoia for now they did the thing

i'm gonna go pass out at the very late time of 9:21pm because i didn't sleep shit the past two days, see y'all tomorrow

completing the survey would be the first thing i would do as scum because i don't believe for a second that someone who has zero prior experience with me can accurately read my alignment based on seeing a personality test report

I mean polygraphs have not been demonstrated to have any test validity whatsoever. They are complete pseudoscience and only a tactic to get people to confess.

If you are concealing a crime that you had committed which is actively being investigated by the police, would you volunteer to take a polygraph test since you know they have no test validity?

i wasn't arguing the big five has no validity, i was arguing that it was measuring a construct that is irrelevant to reading my alignment in this game, and therefore it would be easy ~good townie points~ to score by completing it, while actually giving no useful info

IDK, do you work harder as scum than as town?

[Frogsterking]

Where are my ~good townie points~, they seem to have been lost in transit

Who is pushing you?

[Frogsterking]

I haven't read fully but here are some gth thoughts I had while skimming posts of interest to get me back into this:

Frogster -

I like the idea to do the survey and I will give the weird effort here a leantown.

Spoiler:

Back in my "old guard" days we would do RQS (Random Questioning Stage) sometimes, and a common theme that came up during my games was that people would scumread the person who initially started the RQS because it's "easy content that doesn't actually accomplish anything". I found empirically that, conversely, the people who were starting RQS in that meta were actually more likely to be town, because there were enough people who thought it looked like fluff that scum were afraid to start it. I feel like a similar thing could be happening here; I doubt that scum!Frog does this because they think it will look good, because I don't really know how you could expect to get townread for it. I've personally found that people who do weird, nonconventional thing are more likely to be town (as long as they are clearly not potentially scum!motivated).

RTP - I don't really know who this is or if they have sort sort of history with me (?), but I think the desire to push me hard out of the gate seems genuine in a show-offy way. I doubt many scumplayers would be able to put themselves in the forefront and yell for my elimination. If they were scum, there's no real urgency to push my elimination because I've already sort of stated that I will be more ineffectual than usual this game, which aligns with my historical scum meta. Lean town for now.

Laplacian - RTP asked me to look into this slot a bit ago. I felt very meh about the slot - I realized he got jumped on for some accusation he made and I can see why he got jumped for it but don't feel strongly about what it genuinely means for his alignment.

Aristeia - I've played one game with Aristeia where I was scum and she was town. She sheeped Datisi around the whole day and she's doing the exact same thing here. I'll have more thoughts here later, obviously I don't really want to disclose exactly what I'm looking for.

Datisi - I don't have any thoughts on Datisi's alignment, but he's definitely next on my radar to read if I get some time because I do feel like Datisi gives off genuine hints of towniness if you look closely enough.

skitter - I really don't have any thoughts on skitter. I've concluded I have absolutely no idea how to read her and I doubt I will be able to. I'm very paranoid of this slot in general

.

So where are your survey results, innocentvillager?

[Frogsterking]

IDK, do you work harder as scum than as town?

to an outside observer, my towngame seems more effort-y than my scumgame - but i definitely work harder as scum, so. just a lot of that work is behind the scenes. not sure why you ask, tho.

Because you just said that you would be willing to complete the survey as scum for the free townie points, and in this game you were unwilling to complete the survey, so it implies you would be willing to put in more extra effort as scum than as town.

[Frogsterking]

I haven't read fully but here are some gth thoughts I had while skimming posts of interest to get me back into this:

Frogster -

I like the idea to do the survey and I will give the weird effort here a leantown.

Spoiler:

Back in my "old guard" days we would do RQS (Random Questioning Stage) sometimes, and a common theme that came up during my games was that people would scumread the person who initially started the RQS because it's "easy content that doesn't actually accomplish anything". I found empirically that, conversely, the people who were starting RQS in that meta were actually more likely to be town, because there were enough people who thought it looked like fluff that scum were afraid to start it. I feel like a similar thing could be happening here; I doubt that scum!Frog does this because they think it will look good, because I don't really know how you could expect to get townread for it. I've personally found that people who do weird, nonconventional thing are more likely to be town (as long as they are clearly not potentially scum!motivated).

RTP - I don't really know who this is or if they have sort sort of history with me (?), but I think the desire to push me hard out of the gate seems genuine in a show-offy way. I doubt many scumplayers would be able to put themselves in the forefront and yell for my elimination. If they were scum, there's no real urgency to push my elimination because I've already sort of stated that I will be more ineffectual than usual this game, which aligns with my historical scum meta. Lean town for now.

Laplacian - RTP asked me to look into this slot a bit ago. I felt very meh about the slot - I realized he got jumped on for some accusation he made and I can see why he got jumped for it but don't feel strongly about what it genuinely means for his alignment.

Aristeia - I've played one game with Aristeia where I was scum and she was town. She sheeped Datisi around the whole day and she's doing the exact same thing here. I'll have more thoughts here later, obviously I don't really want to disclose exactly what I'm looking for.

Datisi - I don't have any thoughts on Datisi's alignment, but he's definitely next on my radar to read if I get some time because I do feel like Datisi gives off genuine hints of towniness if you look closely enough.

skitter - I really don't have any thoughts on skitter. I've concluded I have absolutely no idea how to read her and I doubt I will be able to. I'm very paranoid of this slot in general

.

So where are your survey results, innocentvillager?

Does anyone think innocentvillager was trying to pocket me because of his lack of action?

[Frogsterking]

I don't know Laplacian's alignment, but he makes me laugh.

Hmm

[Frogsterking]

Do any players here have any meta on each other for how they treat new or lurking scum buddies?

[Frogsterking]

I don't know Laplacian's alignment, but he makes me laugh.

Hmm

I will Stan that psych 101 joke to my grave if I have to.

You don't think it's sus that you're slot is only willing to vote a lurker who claimed named townie and not the player who has been FoSing you all game?

[Frogsterking]

why is azelf blinking

Because of your ego defense

[Frogsterking]

I don't know Laplacian's alignment, but he makes me laugh.

Hmm

I will Stan that psych 101 joke to my grave if I have to.

You don't think it's sus that you're slot is only willing to vote a lurker who claimed named townie and not the player who has been FoSing you all game?

A50 is a very competent player and my vote has nothing to do with him claiming...which isn't really AI for him.

I don't just vote people because they are suspicious of me either. Doesn't auto make them scum.

So you would like to get rid of a very competent player? Couldn't they help us solve the game later?

Also, if your town then RTP then has a strong scum motivation to shade you, which they have been doing semi-successfully.

[Frogsterking]

@RTP

What would a hypothetical worst case scenario scum team look like to you?

[Frogsterking]

So you would like to get rid of a very competent player? Couldn't they help us solve the game later?

Also, if your town then RTP then has a strong scum motivation to shade you, which they have been doing semi-successfully.

I want to get rid of scum. They are not going to help us later in the game.

As far as shading, I don't mind being shaded. It happens to me extensively in every game and most people eventually realize I'm town. I'm very comfortable there. I will figure out RTP's alignment, and if they are scum, they're just getting pulled into deep water they won't survive by trying to shade me.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should consider an alternative strategy where we choose someone who isn't at the bottom of the PoE or the top of the PoE because those D1 executions have been more likely to hit scum FMPOV.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should consider an alternative strategy where we choose someone who isn't at the bottom of the PoE or the top of the PoE because those D1 executions have been more likely to hit scum FMPOV.

Lap can you do something mathematical that shows how we can logically select someone?

[Frogsterking]

I think we should consider an alternative strategy where we choose someone who isn't at the bottom of the PoE or the top of the PoE because those D1 executions have been more likely to hit scum FMPOV.

I don't think I'm following here exactly. What PoE are you referencing?

A pooled PoE of at least you, skitter, RTP, House, Dats, me, maybe Ari. We all post our PoEs and choose someone in the middle consistently who isn't also one of the 6 or 7.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should consider an alternative strategy where we choose someone who isn't at the bottom of the PoE or the top of the PoE because those D1 executions have been more likely to hit scum FMPOV.

I don't think I'm following here exactly. What PoE are you referencing?

A pooled PoE of at least you, skitter, RTP, House, Dats, me, maybe Ari. We all post our PoEs and choose someone in the middle consistently who isn't also one of the 6 or 7.

Not a PoE OF those players, I'm saying each of these players that I listed make their own PoE of the entire player list, and we narrow down who to execute based on players who pop up in the middle consistently who aren't also one of each other.

[Frogsterking]

FYI i have come to the conclusion that both RTP and VP are town.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not sure that either side of the town core has been compromised.

Do you have any legitimate reasons to distrust Datisi or RTP?

[Frogsterking]

House, why is andres so low on your list?

Since your on VP, I want to clarify, are you still/were you ever townreading House and Skitter?

[Frogsterking]

House, why is andres so low on your list?

Since your on VP, I want to clarify, are you still/were you ever townreading House and Skitter?

Yeah, I think they are probably both town.

Okay our reads are close enough to work together then. I'm planning to post an updated reads list later tonight in a similar format to House.

[Frogsterking]

the fact that i think iv is much less paranoid of vp so he stops me from spiraling into a paranoia tunnel, but the fact that vp was not even mentioned in the list is ??? ? ? ? ?? ?

ok i see he was mentioned in 533 and uuuuuuuuugh iv why can't you just be town instead of spending so much time explaining why you won't be town

Coming back to this...there are several people not mentioned in IV's list (me, andres, Outworld, SS, etc).

Why did you single me out?

Are you open to a suggestion on your play VP?

[Frogsterking]

the fact that i think iv is much less paranoid of vp so he stops me from spiraling into a paranoia tunnel, but the fact that vp was not even mentioned in the list is ??? ? ? ? ?? ?

ok i see he was mentioned in 533 and uuuuuuuuugh iv why can't you just be town instead of spending so much time explaining why you won't be town

Coming back to this...there are several people not mentioned in IV's list (me, andres, Outworld, SS, etc).

Why did you single me out?

Are you open to a suggestion on your play VP?

Are you open to a suggestion on your play VP?

Are you saying you want to tell me how to play mafia???????

lol sure, sign me up

Great. Here:

the fact that i think iv is much less paranoid of vp so he stops me from spiraling into a paranoia tunnel, but the fact that vp was not even mentioned in the list is ??? ? ? ? ?? ?

ok i see he was mentioned in 533 and uuuuuuuuugh iv why can't you just be town instead of spending so much time explaining why you won't be town

Coming back to this...there are several people not mentioned in IV's list (me, andres, Outworld, SS, etc).

Why did you single me out?

Maybe it's right for you to be angry, because you were treated unfairly, and Datisi is not the person who is responsible?

[Frogsterking]

RTP i need to talk to you.

I believe VP is town and a50 is maybe a little sus but ultimately null.

I also think Lap slot is ultimately null even though they're fairly sus. I think the Lap slot is a solid backup execution today because of their anti-town play but I don't think they are the best chance of hitting scum.

Are you on the same page with me?

[Frogsterking]

RTP chill your on tilt I'm pretty sure at least three very vocal town players who TR u.

[Frogsterking]

RTP chill, Ari trs u that's at least four vocal town players who tr u.

[Frogsterking]

I think you're town.

I think OWER's iso regarding you/lapla is not great

nobody is even suspecting you.

OWER IS TOWN

YOURE TOWN

SIITTER IS TOWN

HOUSE IS TOWN

DATISI IS TOWN

just fuckin trust me for d1

This is one of my d1s where I'm fucking up scum just let me do my thing

100x this town list.

RTP I agree u are doing work on the scum but I believe there is still work left to be done. Your first solve wasn't 100% but it was a good start right?

[Frogsterking]

I think VP and Ari are worth trusting as well. I think that the scum are playing it too cool in this game. But we still have a few slots that need to be sorted.

[Frogsterking]

I agree that the Lap wagon is pure but I don't think Lap is the best target. I don't think a50 is the best target either.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Lap

I'll just backup my words with actions I guess, I think Lap is fine backup lunch because they're antitown and might flip scum but I think this slot is null.

[Frogsterking]

I agree that the Lap wagon is pure but I don't think Lap is the best target. I don't think a50 is the best target either.

If we can't get a50 today, I don't think Lap is a bad yeet fwiw. He is playing very differently from his one completed town game. Could be a noob shitting the game, but it's a pretty stark difference

I agree it's sus and still I think it's important to remember that the player list are much faster and sharper than in his completed town game.

[Frogsterking]

ok


ok

crazy

but hear me out:

when someone feels null

but not townie

but when theyre town

they actualyl feel townie(or "scummy")

THAT MEANS THEY ARE SCUM

god.

i feel like im viewing the game from like a completely different pov here

I think you're seeing some things we're not, and i also think we're seeing some things you're not, even if you're seeing more overall than us. That's why I want to share and figure it out.

I think it's a higher probability that Lap is scum, but not guaranteed, and I think there are still 2 players in this game who have not been properly sorted yet.

I also think there is another slot that is even more probably than Lap to flip scum.

[Frogsterking]

im not a big "explain" person

i just sense energies

and i share those energies

and those energies are very likely to be correct

That's fine, not explaining allows for more time sensing.

what energies are you sensing from andre and something_smart?

[Frogsterking]

their thought process is very jagged

1 dimensional

and not caring



i can sort LHF people that low post

they show cognition even in the low posting

its not difficult if you try to connect the dots

if you cant connect dots -> scummy

1 dimensional and not caring, so why are they getting town read so much?

[Frogsterking]

their thought process is very jagged

1 dimensional

and not caring



i can sort LHF people that low post

they show cognition even in the low posting

its not difficult if you try to connect the dots

if you cant connect dots -> scummy

1 dimensional and not caring, so why are they getting town read so much?

I agree they are both jagged 1 dimensional and not caring, and also they are dropping just enough fake town tells to not get wagoned, that's why we haven't been talking about Andre and Something_Smart.

[Frogsterking]

Allow me to break the ice for everyone.

VOTE: Andre

UNVOTE: Andre

VOTE: Something_Smart

By the way, I'm pretty sure town hit correctly on innocentvillager thanks in no small part to RTP. that "reads list" iv posted was garbage and passive aggressive toward multiple players.

[Frogsterking]

For all you people who townread Andre for some reason but scumread Lap, answer me this:

who is Andre voting right now and why?

[Frogsterking]

i think SS is in his town meta because as scum he kinda feels different energy wise


and andres i think is also in town meta even tho i havent seen his scum game - but ill leave him alive for 1 day regardless cuz he gets fearkilled a lot bc he really gets stronger as the game goes on

Is it in SS town meta to not vote anyone or FoS people and try to pocket multiple players?

[Frogsterking]

i think SS is in his town meta because as scum he kinda feels different energy wise


and andres i think is also in town meta even tho i havent seen his scum game - but ill leave him alive for 1 day regardless cuz he gets fearkilled a lot bc he really gets stronger as the game goes on

Is it in SS town meta to not vote anyone or FoS people and try to pocket multiple players?

And pretend to be not caught up on reading all game?

Like Andre and iv are also pretending?

[Frogsterking]

Idon't think so RTP. I think you are giving andre and Something_Smart a free pass for reasons I don't believe are logical.

[Frogsterking]

If it's going to be between a50 and Lap I prefer Lap wagon.

I FoS innocentvillager, andre and something_smart though and I think they deserve another look before we decide.

Are you giving up on the iv wagon just because you believe it can't be pushed through? That might be an ideal compromise.

[Frogsterking]

For all you people who townread Andre for some reason but scumread Lap, answer me this:

who is Andre voting right now and why?

i actually have no idea, but i'm kinda getting hte vibe that he's just a ~low content~ player in general, and i'm kinda liking his content and approach ot the game when he is here

He's voting me still from his RVS.

I agree his vibe is cool, maybe I'm just paranoid he's scum coasting.

I have to say something to you though skitter, did you skim read innocentvillager's big post you're townreading them for?

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Laplacian

I’m going to put this down for now.

Wow RTP was right I was tinfoiling Andre.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: innocentvillager


We've got time, I guess my ideal cross would be between iv and Lap. I think this is a better cross than Lap/a50. I think both are sus but I think there is a moderate chance Lap flips town and was just really newb with a lunchbait personality. I don't think iv is town. a50 also claimed some crap PR so there's that extra downside.

*

I haven't read fully but here are some gth thoughts I had while skimming posts of interest to get me back into this:

Frogster - I like the idea to do the survey and I will give the weird effort here a leantown. Back in my "old guard" days we would do RQS (Random Questioning Stage) sometimes, and a common theme that came up during my games was that people would scumread the person who initially started the RQS because it's "easy content that doesn't actually accomplish anything". I found empirically that, conversely, the people who were starting RQS in that meta were actually more likely to be town, because there were enough people who thought it looked like fluff that scum were afraid to start it. I feel like a similar thing could be happening here; I doubt that scum!Frog does this because they think it will look good, because I don't really know how you could expect to get townread for it. I've personally found that people who do weird, nonconventional thing are more likely to be town (as long as they are clearly not potentially scum!motivated).

RTP - I don't really know who this is or if they have sort sort of history with me (?), but I think the desire to push me hard out of the gate seems genuine in a show-offy way. I doubt many scumplayers would be able to put themselves in the forefront and yell for my elimination. If they were scum, there's no real urgency to push my elimination because I've already sort of stated that I will be more ineffectual than usual this game, which aligns with my historical scum meta. Lean town for now.

Laplacian - RTP asked me to look into this slot a bit ago. I felt very meh about the slot - I realized he got jumped on for some accusation he made and I can see why he got jumped for it but don't feel strongly about what it genuinely means for his alignment

Aristeia - I've played one game with Aristeia where I was scum and she was town. She sheeped Datisi around the whole day and she's doing the exact same thing here. I'll have more thoughts here later, obviously I don't really want to disclose exactly what I'm looking for.

Datisi - I don't have any thoughts on Datisi's alignment, but he's definitely next on my radar to read if I get some time because I do feel like Datisi gives off genuine hints of towniness if you look closely enough.

skitter - I really don't have any thoughts on skitter. I've concluded I have absolutely no idea how to read her and I doubt I will be able to. I'm very paranoid of this slot in general.

[/size][/b]

*

super lame excuse, super convenient for finally posting such a terrible list. I don't buy iv's cover story at all, I think it's true that iv is busy, but I think iv is using that truth to conceal that they are lurking scum. And I get the sense from this post that iv is more aware of what's happening than they are letting on.

I think this post is a bunch of shit. I think the top half in green is designed to drop town pings and get himself townread, and the bottom half in red is designed to throw massive shade, some subtle and some not, including the several players he "forgets" to mention. This is such a garbage reads list, most of his statements are just describing things he noticed, some of which aren't even from the game, and never committing on a read.

I guess skitter is townreading it because skitter thinks she's sus even though other players tr her, and innocentvillager said she was sus so it seems cool, but i think this is just dropping shade and not congruent with the game.

PEDIT : LOL

LOOK WHO SHOWS UP NOW OF ALL TIMES

[Frogsterking]

a50 is the only null methinks

rofl mainslipping

OH lmao I did think your posting style was familiar

Okay now it makes sense why you are so into killing me this game

Just a note to any of my familiars, I really think the meta discussion around me is p useless and shouldn’t TR/SR me off of that - just treat me like a different player pretend I have a different username or something this game

I shouldn’t be a polarized slot at this point given how little I’ve been here/I haven’t townspewed at all so I’m not sure where any of that is coming from. I should prolly just be in everyone’s PoE rn but that’s just me atm

I don’t really want to spend the time I have here just talking about me and how my meta is useless here so id like to move on

I can't believe you have the audacity to show up here posting content trying to force town tells the second you get accused again.

[Frogsterking]

Hi Frog… I got here first fam

Lmao the web of lies. I'm going back now to fetch the posts so everyone can see u trying to cover ur butt.

[Frogsterking]

Hey iv are you still on?

I came back from casing your scum flail just now to check how much your post count increased just now. From 22 to 33. Not bad.

[Frogsterking]

Okay knowing RTP is koba helps and doesn’t help - they’re prolly not as town as I thought they were but i still think they’re townish idk. I don’t trust their D1 read accuracy that much but I think they will eventually converge on better and better reads.

Koba if you want to explain Datisi, Out, skitter I would certainly be open to hearing it, but “energies” is too vague for me to sheep, especially you have me in your solve

do you see me pushing your elimination right now?

or are you using me calling you scum at all not to give me any credibility?

townies never shoot 100% right away thats absurd to think

RTP did you not see what just happened? iv is like confirmed scum. iv lied about being aware they were being cased. You were right the first time.

[Frogsterking]

Okay knowing RTP is koba helps and doesn’t help - they’re prolly not as town as I thought they were but i still think they’re townish idk. I don’t trust their D1 read accuracy that much but I think they will eventually converge on better and better reads.

Koba if you want to explain Datisi, Out, skitter I would certainly be open to hearing it, but “energies” is too vague for me to sheep, especially you have me in your solve

do you see me pushing your elimination right now?

or are you using me calling you scum at all not to give me any credibility?

townies never shoot 100% right away thats absurd to think

RTP did you not see what just happened? iv is like confirmed scum. iv lied about being aware they were being cased. You were right the first time.

What the fuck RTP you are raging about how we don't get your pov and you can't see iv just increased their post count from 22 to 35 in the last like 20 minutes for a reason?

[Frogsterking]

Yes I'm casing it right now. It's almost finished. I need to take a break for a few minutes.

Spewing is the right word. IV panicked and scum flailed and lied and they know it. I don't think they ever want to come back to the game thread. I will be somewhat surprised if they do.

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

IV's ISO from the last mini normal I played with him where he was mafia - I think his first readlist is on 694/695.

Did IV tell you to post this as damage control?

Why not provide this earlier?

[Frogsterking]

Sorry it's taking so long, I'm back again to grab a couple quotes I missed from IV's scum flail.

[Frogsterking]

tl;dr : innocentvillager scum flails when his "pocket" (me) tries to bring back the BW unexpectedly. In a panic innocentvillager increases their total post count across the entire game by over 40% in less than an hour, during which time innocent villager: lies directly multiple times about why he is suddenly so active in the discussion, insisting he was here before the discussion started (which you will see he clearly was not), claims it's a coincidence he showed up a short while after I began casing him, all while denying there is any unusual activity happening in the thread, before exiting as though he's been caught in a lie and wants to get away.

Timeline step by step:

I suggest the idea that town hit correctly the first time and we should back innocentvillager wagon across SEVERAL posts from 945 to 960.

Spoiler:

Allow me to break the ice for everyone.

VOTE: Andre

UNVOTE: Andre

VOTE: Something_Smart

By the way, I'm pretty sure town hit correctly on innocentvillager thanks in no small part to RTP. that "reads list" iv posted was garbage and passive aggressive toward multiple players.

i think SS is in his town meta because as scum he kinda feels different energy wise


and andres i think is also in town meta even tho i havent seen his scum game - but ill leave him alive for 1 day regardless cuz he gets fearkilled a lot bc he really gets stronger as the game goes on

Is it in SS town meta to not vote anyone or FoS people and try to pocket multiple players?

And pretend to be not caught up on reading all game?

Like Andre and iv are also pretending?

If it's going to be between a50 and Lap I prefer Lap wagon.

I FoS innocentvillager, andre and something_smart though and I think they deserve another look before we decide.

Are you giving up on the iv wagon just because you believe it can't be pushed through? That might be an ideal compromise.

For all you people who townread Andre for some reason but scumread Lap, answer me this:

who is Andre voting right now and why?

i actually have no idea, but i'm kinda getting hte vibe that he's just a ~low content~ player in general, and i'm kinda liking his content and approach ot the game when he is here

He's voting me still from his RVS.

I agree his vibe is cool, maybe I'm just paranoid he's scum coasting.

I have to say something to you though skitter, did you skim read innocentvillager's big post you're townreading them for?

Now, immediately AFTER these are posted and my intent to push for a BW is made clear, and WHILE I'm writing my case against IV, in 964 innocentvillager pops into the game thread all like "no see you misunderstand" in response to a far earlier statement I made against innocentvillager, allll the way back from 812 and 815. Is it a coincidence IV just happened to be responding to these issues now that the push is clearly becoming serious, instead of earlier (like innocentvillager has some increased awareness of things that have been said in the game thread than they are letting on? and choosing to participate only when it affects their survival?)

Spoiler:

I haven't read fully but here are some gth thoughts I had while skimming posts of interest to get me back into this:

Frogster -

I like the idea to do the survey and I will give the weird effort here a leantown.

Back in my "old guard" days we would do RQS (Random Questioning Stage) sometimes, and a common theme that came up during my games was that people would scumread the person who initially started the RQS because it's "easy content that doesn't actually accomplish anything". I found empirically that, conversely, the people who were starting RQS in that meta were actually more likely to be town, because there were enough people who thought it looked like fluff that scum were afraid to start it. I feel like a similar thing could be happening here; I doubt that scum!Frog does this because they think it will look good, because I don't really know how you could expect to get townread for it. I've personally found that people who do weird, nonconventional thing are more likely to be town (as long as they are clearly not potentially scum!motivated).

RTP - I don't really know who this is or if they have sort sort of history with me (?), but I think the desire to push me hard out of the gate seems genuine in a show-offy way. I doubt many scumplayers would be able to put themselves in the forefront and yell for my elimination. If they were scum, there's no real urgency to push my elimination because I've already sort of stated that I will be more ineffectual than usual this game, which aligns with my historical scum meta. Lean town for now.

Laplacian - RTP asked me to look into this slot a bit ago. I felt very meh about the slot - I realized he got jumped on for some accusation he made and I can see why he got jumped for it but don't feel strongly about what it genuinely means for his alignment.

Aristeia - I've played one game with Aristeia where I was scum and she was town. She sheeped Datisi around the whole day and she's doing the exact same thing here. I'll have more thoughts here later, obviously I don't really want to disclose exactly what I'm looking for.

Datisi - I don't have any thoughts on Datisi's alignment, but he's definitely next on my radar to read if I get some time because I do feel like Datisi gives off genuine hints of towniness if you look closely enough.

skitter - I really don't have any thoughts on skitter. I've concluded I have absolutely no idea how to read her and I doubt I will be able to. I'm very paranoid of this slot in general.

So where are your survey results, innocentvillager?

Does anyone think innocentvillager was trying to pocket me because of his lack of action?

I think you misunderstood me? i like your attempt at getting people to do the survey from a perspective of reading you, not that I was actually going to do your survey

The timing is so "coincidental", you can see the PEDIT at the bottom of my case and vote in 965, where I indicate via PEDIT I can see innocentvillager has now of all times made an appearance in the gamethread.

Spoiler:

VOTE: innocentvillager


We've got time, I guess my ideal cross would be between iv and Lap. I think this is a better cross than Lap/a50. I think both are sus but I think there is a moderate chance Lap flips town and was just really newb with a lunchbait personality. I don't think iv is town. a50 also claimed some crap PR so there's that extra downside.

*

I haven't read fully but here are some gth thoughts I had while skimming posts of interest to get me back into this:

Frogster - I like the idea to do the survey and I will give the weird effort here a leantown. Back in my "old guard" days we would do RQS (Random Questioning Stage) sometimes, and a common theme that came up during my games was that people would scumread the person who initially started the RQS because it's "easy content that doesn't actually accomplish anything". I found empirically that, conversely, the people who were starting RQS in that meta were actually more likely to be town, because there were enough people who thought it looked like fluff that scum were afraid to start it. I feel like a similar thing could be happening here; I doubt that scum!Frog does this because they think it will look good, because I don't really know how you could expect to get townread for it. I've personally found that people who do weird, nonconventional thing are more likely to be town (as long as they are clearly not potentially scum!motivated).

RTP - I don't really know who this is or if they have sort sort of history with me (?), but I think the desire to push me hard out of the gate seems genuine in a show-offy way. I doubt many scumplayers would be able to put themselves in the forefront and yell for my elimination. If they were scum, there's no real urgency to push my elimination because I've already sort of stated that I will be more ineffectual than usual this game, which aligns with my historical scum meta. Lean town for now.

Laplacian - RTP asked me to look into this slot a bit ago. I felt very meh about the slot - I realized he got jumped on for some accusation he made and I can see why he got jumped for it but don't feel strongly about what it genuinely means for his alignment

Aristeia - I've played one game with Aristeia where I was scum and she was town. She sheeped Datisi around the whole day and she's doing the exact same thing here. I'll have more thoughts here later, obviously I don't really want to disclose exactly what I'm looking for.

Datisi - I don't have any thoughts on Datisi's alignment, but he's definitely next on my radar to read if I get some time because I do feel like Datisi gives off genuine hints of towniness if you look closely enough.

skitter - I really don't have any thoughts on skitter. I've concluded I have absolutely no idea how to read her and I doubt I will be able to. I'm very paranoid of this slot in general.

[/size][/b]

*

super lame excuse, super convenient for finally posting such a terrible list. I don't buy iv's cover story at all, I think it's true that iv is busy, but I think iv is using that truth to conceal that they are lurking scum. And I get the sense from this post that iv is more aware of what's happening than they are letting on.

I think this post is a bunch of shit. I think the top half in green is designed to drop town pings and get himself townread, and the bottom half in red is designed to throw massive shade, some subtle and some not, including the several players he "forgets" to mention. This is such a garbage reads list, most of his statements are just describing things he noticed, some of which aren't even from the game, and never committing on a read.

I guess skitter is townreading it because skitter thinks she's sus even though other players tr her, and innocentvillager said she was sus so it seems cool, but i think this is just dropping shade and not congruent with the game.

PEDIT : LOL

LOOK WHO SHOWS UP NOW OF ALL TIMES

Now it would make sense for a townie to try to defend themselves immediately, and I can't PROVE that innocentvillager was aware of but had chosen not to respond to my earlier statements, or that they are keeping fairly close enough tabs on the game thread to be able to respond to threats within the time frame they did. Though it does seem very suspicious; it's circumstantial.

innocentvillager however is behaving as though they are conscious of their scumminess and starts scumflailing, posting a very long series of posts, changing his behavior to the extent he increases his total post count from #22 to #35 in a very short period of time. While flailing, innocentvillager

lies

and says that he was here in the game thread BEFORE I was, implying that my suspicions are

not

what he is clearly reacting in his behavior toward. For example iinnocentvillager says "Hi Frog...i got here first fam" in 967 and "i just checked in and you literally dropped that post on me" in 974 which I believe are incredibly unlikely coincidences, and I also believe that innocentvillager's behavior indicates

he

believes it's unlikely, which might be the most important part.

innocentvillager goes into what appears to be a frenzied attempt at damage control, gaslighting skitter into believing that there are very concrete reasons for town!innocentvillager to be paranoid of her, shades RTP's ability to generate D1 reads and my ability to make logical cases, playing on RTP's self-disclosed weakness of not letting go of their solves because of ego, and claims the discussion should move on because it's not a good way to "spend the time he has" and other AtE. (I bring up the AtE again.) They do all this while insisting repeatedly there is nothing unusual going on and there is nothing to see here.

This scum flail lasts from 966 to 983, which I tried to place in the spoilers below but I may have missed some posts.

Spoiler:

a50 is the only null methinks

rofl mainslipping

OH lmao I did think your posting style was familiar

Okay now it makes sense why you are so into killing me this game

Just a note to any of my familiars, I really think the meta discussion around me is p useless and shouldn’t TR/SR me off of that - just treat me like a different player pretend I have a different username or something this game

I shouldn’t be a polarized slot at this point given how little I’ve been here/I haven’t townspewed at all so I’m not sure where any of that is coming from. I should prolly just be in everyone’s PoE rn but that’s just me atm

I don’t really want to spend the time I have here just talking about me and how my meta is useless here so id like to move on

Hi Frog… I got here first fam

That isn’t even a case

I explicitly said it was thoughts that came to mind

What is your problem? I just checked in and you literally dropped that post after me

*

And even if I didn’t

why does the timing matter?

Hi Frog… I got here first fam

Lmao the web of lies. I'm going back now to fetch the posts so everyone can see u trying to cover ur butt.

Hi Frog… I got here first fam

Lmao the web of lies. I'm going back now to fetch the posts so everyone can see u trying to cover ur butt.

How is that a lie? Wtf?

*

Reads a litle sus lol. Also variants of "how am i scum? wtf" are a somewhat reliable scum tell on EM (which is livechat format) when you catch the scum player off guard, I think partly because it's like stalling.

Below IV gaslights skitter, who IV has pocketed by mimicking her read on me and playing into her paranoia about being townread by too many players. I want to point out that regardless of your read of skitter (I'm thinking of House pov here) the sketch part about this is that IV is clearly motivated to convince skitter to think he does have reasons to be paranoid of her, because skitter is reading IV as town for doing so, and this is scummy regardless of whether or not you yourself are personally paranoid of skitter, because the purpose is to pocket skitter and defend IV's earlier statements.

Spoiler:

i actually really liked the frog read, and feel similarly
don't have thoughts on rtp, dats, ari

he has made a point of telling me before that he doesn't know how to read me and that he's massively paranoid of me, and that's in line with that game, but now that i think about it i'm realizing that was a scum-iv game so maybe i should be more bothered by it idk

You know when I say stuff like that as scum some of it is actually true? I have reasons to be paranoid of you that I can’t talk about rn

iv why are you paranoid of me again?

pedit i am massively confused
have you even played with scum-me anywhere?

Probably

skitter do you feel that you are easy to read?

i think i'm a little easier to read than most people think i am?
i.e. i think there's some noteable differences between my town/scum games but apparently i'm good enuf at sounding similar that i think a lot of people can't tell the difference

i'm not sure if that answers your question

very much agree with u abt frog

innocentvillager tries to reinforce RTP's doubt their D1 reading abilities, because RTP feels like a threat to innocentvillager, and innocentvillager also tries to use AtE to move the discussion away from themselves:

Spoiler:

a50 is the only null methinks

rofl mainslipping

*

OH lmao I did think your posting style was familiar

Okay now it makes sense why you are so into killing me this game

Just a note to any of my familiars, I really think the meta discussion around me is p useless and shouldn’t TR/SR me off of that - just treat me like a different player pretend I have a different username or something this game

*

I shouldn’t be a polarized slot at this point given how little I’ve been here/I haven’t townspewed at all so I’m not sure where any of that is coming from. I should prolly just be in everyone’s PoE rn but that’s just me atm

I don’t really want to spend the time I have here just talking about me and how my meta is useless here so id like to move on

I can't believe you have the audacity to show up here posting content trying to force town tells the second you get accused again.

Okay knowing RTP is koba helps and doesn’t help - they’re prolly not as town as I thought they were but i still think they’re townish idk. I don’t trust their D1 read accuracy that much but I think they will eventually converge on better and better reads.

Koba if you want to explain Datisi, Out, skitter I would certainly be open to hearing it, but “energies” is too vague for me to sheep, especially you have me in your solve

*

Generic AtE lines or implying RTP doesn't have valid reasons for scum reading them and mis-executes players on D1 as a pattern.

Below innocentvillager can't back down from his earlier attempts to pocket me because his earlier read on me was part of the reason he stopped getting BWed, so he just tries to discredit me instead:

Spoiler:

Btw frogster is town, no sane scum pushes me the way he’s pushing me

After 983 innocentvillager suddenly ceases the posting frenzy and disappears, I believe the time frame here was 20 minutes, and then after IV is done changing his pants he returns to post the below:

Spoiler:

Hi, due to RL stuffs for the next unspecified period of time I am doing a self imposed posting/reading posting ban outside of the hours of 8am - 4pm EST on weekdays, and after 10pm on Sun - Thurs. I need to start keeping myself more accountable - sorry for any inconvenience this causes

*I won’t be on during these specified times

And he was never heard from in the thread again! The end.


And now finally, for the epilogue a bonus provided by Ari (who is not panic bussing like I accused her of--this was brought up during the first innocentvillager BW and she thought it might be relevant to bring up again), a quote from a recent completed innocentvillager mininormal scum game, where innocentvillager uses similar tactics to what have been outlined here to receive town credit, like posting similar read lists as this game, and similar kinds of AtE as this game, so some of these things I'm accusing innocentvillager of are documented to be within their scum range.

If I can have some leeway to toss a spin in alongside this meta information, I think scum!innocentvillager's behavior this game makes a lot of sense if they've already rolled scum recently in a game before this and didn't want to have to play scum again.

Spoiler:

just some brief thoughts i had on my skim

townlean i guess

T3 - I remember meta'ing this guy back in DEFCON mafia but i feel like he's way different now this doesn't resemble either his town or scum game. Guy doesn't care he's posting every thought and just vibing. which is kind of what i do as scum sometimes too but i don't think it's something most ppl do. Being open about feeling disconnected from the game feels +town and i some of his content looks bad on the surface but he doesn't give a fuck and i think some of his takes were reasonable. The "mindmeld" with salsa post felt real and i think the excitement was genuine idk that was kinda townpingy i guess. flashvote on me was bad but he could just be trigger happy.

north of null

kyouko - anyone who proactively and early does a meta dive scumcase that clearly laid out with no bullshit can be a townlean, unless it's someone who i know can put in the effort as scum like datisi. maybe kyouko's a good scum player too so idk but fine keeping that slot around for now. i feel meh about trusting these kinds of tells because i think they tend to be mean-reverting more than ppl expect but i like the spirit

datsi - concise and nonpostury takes are very non-lamist. i think scum!gamma might be more lamisty and wordy which is the vibe i got from him in LN something

mew - idk i take back the faker comparison he seems to be very open about his thoughts and is very willing to explain everything he's thinking which is a plus - maybe he's scum good at faking this kind of stuff even under pressure tho idk seems redeemable at least

idk

datisi - i honestly have no idea on datisi nothing he's done makes me think town or scum. push on me was bad but i can see it from scum him too. sorry dayteezee i know u are good at getting ppl to townread you but not me yet. i feel like as i keep interacting with you ill get a better sense for your alignment

salsa - i get a T3/unabombah vibe from this slot very spammy and ico style catchup lol. granted una was scum in the game im thinking of but vibe here is very frazzled. idk i can't really put into words here yet but meh.

dwlee - i think some of their earlier posting was fine and reminiscent of our recent game but i wasn't exactly trying to read dwlee there so idk this reread dwlee didn't stand out like at all. idk

everyone else

nm is like 95% town for the miller claim because nm knows how to play mafia but doesn't care enough to fakeclaim miller as scum.

ari, chaos no idea

margot kind of blends into the background aside from that crazy E1? it feels weird that she feels obligated to update her reads list so much but that's probably just a playstyle thing. or a self conscious newb scum ha. regardless im sure ill get a better sense of this slot after voteparking her

i would attempt a dumb early solve but it's literally too dumb and too early so ill just wait until i get in the game a little more before utterly embarrassing myself (not that it's going to increase my read accuracy much anyway probs, lol)

[Frogsterking]

tl;dr :

Don't give a shit.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Can't say you weren't warned.

Hardclaim Masons with innocentvillager

Softed on page 1 & my reads list (same green color code for me and iv, different code for other hard townreads). Interactions between us show familiarity when I've never been in a game with them. They call me town but don't justify it, unlike their other townreads.

iv didn't want me to out on d1 and one of our earlier public interactions was him trying to discourage me from it when I mentioned in Mason chat that it would suck to out early.

Your chainsaw came back to bite you in the ass. Lap & Frog are scum together.

Damn house you're a very good actor. when I was death tunneling you, you really convinced me with the AtE because you seemed so angry you were also confused, and like you were willing to push the point to the extent it sacrificed your credibility within the town. I remember once a long time ago I saw a scum play like that, and I was thinking about that game while watching your AtE come in and wondering how far you were willing to go. Eventually I was like nah.. that one player from that one game was an outlier.. almost no scum would look like this, it's more likely I made a mistake and pushed it too far.

Then when I tried to make up with you, you were all like wounded ego narrative and everything. I thought we had a moment there!

[Frogsterking]

frog is still town

stand down

you're exhibiting mason ego

the level of detail and effort put into that analysis is still towny and you're just lost in the sauce of being masons

fwiw i think house is more likely neighbors with IV and just townreads IV

this is something to keep in mind if neither flips over the course of the next couple night phases

If this is another neighbor setup I'm going to be pissed not gonna lie, I hate being punished for playing to my win condition and identifying the very same abstract patterns I'm supposed to be identifying.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Laplan

I guess I'm expecting Lap to flip null and I stand by my reads House is just trying to buy the scum team time?

House AtE was very good today though.

[Frogsterking]

I guess it could be a bus and IV is some kind of power role the scum team needs so they're swinging it onto a goon.

[Frogsterking]

house, why the fuck would you out after one vote, what the fuck

I think it was okay, I wasn't going to let the case go on this one.

[Frogsterking]

I guess it could be a bus and IV is some kind of power role the scum team needs so they're swinging it onto a goon.

So you're saying the scum team is me, iv, and Lap?

And you think this guy is actually trying to solve, RTP? Fuckouttahere.

Why are you trying to discredit me?

I'm trying to imagine a reality where I didn't just waste hours in a game correctly looking for clues and detailing them only to be punished because there's some dumb role going on behind the scenes that operates the same of what I was told to look for but I WASN'T supposed to find it.

[Frogsterking]

i think theyre trying

i didnt say their trying was effective

i literally watched them just flop over as scum, they have an energy tell and they aren't scum here.

i think you and frog shouldnt interact too much because theres a playstytle class there partially too


frog, just solve assuming house is town from here - this isn't a scum gambit. house would lose *2* scum members at once with this, even if it guarantees a mislim or 2 - it can cause an autoloss situation.

What are you talking about here?

[Frogsterking]

frogster isn't scum and i'm willing to argue about it

Dude is saying that I'm sacrificing Lap to save iv, when I've been supporting the Lap wagon well before iv was anywhere near a wagon concern.

If I'm going to ask my buddy to self-vote, do I make that post in public or the scum thread?

If his solve is correct, this game is automatically a town win because iv & I living to Elo = instant elimination, and when one flips scum the other one goes next.

Frog isn't trying to solve shit.

If I'm not trying to solve shit how I did just bust your stupid partners ass for his mason tells?

And if I'm scum why not just post my observations in scum chat and night kill you both?

[Frogsterking]

frogster isn't scum and i'm willing to argue about it

Dude is saying that I'm sacrificing Lap to save iv, when I've been supporting the Lap wagon well before iv was anywhere near a wagon concern.

If I'm going to ask my buddy to self-vote, do I make that post in public or the scum thread?

If his solve is correct, this game is automatically a town win because iv & I living to Elo = instant elimination, and when one flips scum the other one goes next.

Frog isn't trying to solve shit.

frogster isn't scum and i'm willing to argue about it

Dude is saying that I'm sacrificing Lap to save iv, when I've been supporting the Lap wagon well before iv was anywhere near a wagon concern.

If I'm going to ask my buddy to self-vote, do I make that post in public or the scum thread?

If his solve is correct, this game is automatically a town win because iv & I living to Elo = instant elimination, and when one flips scum the other one goes next.

Frog isn't trying to solve shit.

If I'm not trying to solve shit how I did just bust your stupid partners ass for his mason tells?

And if I'm scum why not just post my observations in scum chat and night kill you both?

Fine House, my idea was stupid, but yours was equally stupid. If your really a mason and I'm really a scum and all that shit on IV and some of that shit on you yesterday why would not tell my scum buddies instead and night kill you?

[Frogsterking]

Okay, I'm caught up and Frogsterking's post stuck out the most for me. It feels a lot like "I made a helpful town thing, look how townie I am!". If he posts the survey and it is legit helpful, then consider this retracted, but until then it's blatantly grabbing for trust.
VOTE: Frogsterking

The survey says I'm a Taurus and should be in Ravenclaw, pretty sure that makes me town.

Anyway, while Big 5 / FFM was made up by actual psychologists and is used in some research, it was still made by taking an assload of subjective observational data, tossing it into a bag of linear algebra, shaking them together and hoping it works. The results are non-orthogonal, omit fundamental aspects of human nature, and traits like neuroticism trivially change based on the testee's mood. Saying "factor analysis" isn't a pass btw; algorithms are biased if their data is biased. My personal favorite was a hiring algorithm where the strongest traits it looked for were playing high-school lacrosse and being named Jared. Yes, researchers get results out of OCEAN tests. Alchemists got results too. Pretending this survey is objective and flawless is peak comedy, and accusing people of being closed minded for dismissing it is some freshmen psych student bullshit.

I should probably actually play the game too. frogster is townlean because of the sheer effort but I'm leaving the vote on them anyway because I scored 0.16969% on the openness temperament and a 420% on the grumpy at misusing psych tests trait. House still town, Datsi's giving me good townfeels too with good contributions and thought out posts

ffff that's a lot of posts. I'll fully respond once I'm off work, but 1. frogster's 592 case is garbage and 2. what exactly is "lunchbait"? I have ideas from context, but want to make sure.

Dear Lap,

Hey Lap, I felt this great painful sensation like there was fierce, nasty space beetle with slicing mandibles and a hot exoskeleton that burned like the sun, and it was following me, gnawing away at my skin no matter how far I walked, and I thought of you!

I looked back at your content you created in this game and I asked myself
"Is this awful feeling coming from Lap? Has reading Lap's writing slowly been causing some kind of corrosive effect on me?" But then I SIGHED with relief when I realized; I was being silly, Lap lost the game way too quickly to have an effect like that, I just needed to scratch my foot!

I started to wonder if Lap would have fun in the GY while everyone else gets to finish the game, watching Lap's own irrelevant contributions Lap left behind never used or referred back to later.

I started worrying, Lap would likely be sad once they only had themselves to talk to! Lap would probably be confused!

I decided to employ my creativity to come up with some of some kind of exercise suited for the level of depth even Lap could operate on. What in the world could possibly help to improve the terrible play that lead to Lap being selected for the D1 execution, even though there were many intense battles and unexpected developments Lap was unable to any take part in? I asked myself
"Maybe if Lap could read and write much faster, or had an effective persona, or ideas, Lap wouldn't have fallen so far behind in the game?" I didn't know what to do. I toiled away, as you know I do, and

behold..

eureka!

The fertile lands of the frog swamp have yielded us once more! I came across this:

https://brainfall.com/quizzes/which-dis ... s-are-you/

It's not just based on observational data (though the observational data it draws on is world class), it also uses art, storytelling, and factor analysis (quantified variables) which are synthesized (which means to combine the elements) using an algorithm (a simple mathematical formula.)

The concept behind my idea was that maybe you could both 1) use the results of the test as guidance while you 2) use the GY chat as scaffolding so you could practice combining the thoughts in your head into creating something that doesn't fail!!

Goodbye Lap, you won't be missed,
or probably remembered

Yours truly, Frog

[Frogsterking]

I don't think Lap is coming back, I think they like to dish it out but can't handle taking the heat themselves.

I understand RTP's read on VP now seems to be based primarily on PoE. I guess I do townread the other active players much more, and the lower activity players are just kind of doing their town thing, not really sus, except a50 is a touch sus, but it's not too bad.

I also don't like how VP is kind of hovering around the hammer right now, seems sketch. I FoS VP now and feel optimistic about the Lap BW.

[Frogsterking]

This seems overly polite IMO

Are you trying to bait me to eat another 1-month ban???

No no no Bonobo I would take it back if I could!

[Frogsterking]

Well that was a thing.

Good morning all

Intent to hammer laplacian. Claim.

can i know what this is? for, uh, future reference.

No. It may not even be accurate, but holding it for now.

This EoD handling of the hammer looks sketch to me, not sure why yet. Then VP goes on the defensive in 1096 and sort of just continues for a while:

and i'm also annoyed because i'm *hoping* we're t/t/t again, and him quelling my paranoia here would help me, and he didn't do that >_>

If you're paranoid of me, why did you state a town read so fast?

vp:

A50 is a very competent player and my vote has nothing to do with him claiming...

So you would like to get rid of a very competent player? Couldn't they help us solve the game later?

I want to get rid of scum. They are not going to help us later in the game.

also vp:

Andres is late game beast as town. We aren't yeeting him

:thonk:

EBWOP: You think andres is scum? I don't get that vibe from his early posts.

VP's current placement on the a50 wagon combined with their behavior seems sketch in light of a Lap flip. I'm really only focusing on it because the PoE seems to be pointing in VP's direction though.

[Frogsterking]

Oh okay you guys are in a hood too, good to know.

[Frogsterking]

Then VP goes on the defensive in 1096 and sort of just continues for a while:

what is supposed to be defensive about those posts?

Cagey and qualifying

[Frogsterking]

Who else is in your hood with VP, SS?

[Frogsterking]

I hope the scum team NK someone with a private chat thread tonight, absolutely no loss on losing that "power", good riddance even as far as I'm concerned.

[Frogsterking]

Intent to hammer laplacian. Claim.

No one cares what they claim rofl

Given a couple people said they wanted more time for the thread to be open, stating intent when I might otherwise have hammered seemed like the nice thing to do, and I am nothing if not EXTREMELY NICE

This is just like admitting to the oldest scum tell in the book

[Frogsterking]

It seems better to put the clock on the scum team to choose their next action, I don't think Lap is coming back, and dawdling just gives scum team more time to figure out what to do.

[Frogsterking]

I haven’t caught up nearly enough but I’m fine with the execution. RTP sounds just too confident and I don’t remember them playing like this ever as Scum D1. I don’t think RTP is the type to want to give themselves away with a shit execution this early and absolutely lose their sway and voice. They would be hard hedging I think.

RTP did a bunch of townie things yesterday IMO.

[Frogsterking]

If you wanna see effective hood play read my neighbor game from 2020, ydrasse + totally not obvious secret alt were in the hood with me and we used it to stomp :p

I love hoods just when theyre used right xD

I might actually read that during the night phase.

[Frogsterking]

Something uh.. forgot what I was thinking.

[Frogsterking]

I haven’t caught up nearly enough but I’m fine with the execution. RTP sounds just too confident and I don’t remember them playing like this ever as Scum D1. I don’t think RTP is the type to want to give themselves away with a shit execution this early and absolutely lose their sway and voice. They would be hard hedging I think.

RTP did a bunch of townie things yesterday IMO.

Look I judge RTP largely based on results. I think they’re a strong player, and certainly too strong for me to be fully convinced by rhetoric D1. Which is why I want Laplacian flipped.

Would you be sus of them after 1 misflip or would it take 2?

[Frogsterking]

Oh okay good to know about the scum range with the claims.

Maybe one of you guys out in the hoods should relay that information so your team mates see it?

[Frogsterking]

I wish there were a good pr in this game like an investigative instead of the hoods. I'm sick of tracking the state of a thread that results from multiple private chats at once.

[Frogsterking]

what was that Vigilante claim you used that made no sense?

that weak vigilante claim is the most beautiful disaster i have ever seen

GAIZ I PROMIS I SHOOT TOMORROW Just get the roleblocked hehe!

IDK, it can be difficult to track those things.

Have I obvtowned enough in this game to lurk yet? I'm sure the hoods will eventually reveal their information and sheep each other and town will win.

[Frogsterking]

Datisi chill you're all good, if something is off it can be ironed out.

yeah, that's my problem, i'm having lowkey too many townie vibes this game which is making me enter paranoia-mode much earlier than needed

and if lap flips green, i think that's a solid sign this game is deeply fucked

There are a lot more players who are town than scum so having lots of town reads doesn't imply your reads are bad necessarily.

[Frogsterking]

Does anyone here have a meta of being lonewolf scum or NOT assisting newbscum very much?

[Frogsterking]

There are multiple reasons for scum to sit on the hammer here, like hoping for a last minute change, trying to grab town cred, fishing for prs, and figuring out who to push on D2.

[Frogsterking]

@a50

Would you do anything special to adapt to having a player like Lap on your scum team?

[Frogsterking]

Oh nice

[Frogsterking]

If I die tonight, yeet a50 into the sun.

What a scum line

[Frogsterking]

@a50

Would you do anything special to adapt to having a player like Lap on your scum team?

Come again?

In a game like this, if you were scum with Lap would you just let him fend for himself and try to solo carry, or would you try to work with him in some way and survive longer as a team?

[Frogsterking]

I agree with Datisi position laid out in 1209 though I didn't pick up on the tells with OutWorldER and will need to reflect on that.

I reread and had some good and some bad on VP which Datisi pretty much pointed out, and noticed a few minor issues with both the a50 slot and S_S slot, neither of which I'm sure are AI. I'm most likely going to be putting VP at e-2 here in a second.

I'm p sure RTP FoSed VP and a50 the most. There was that post they freaked out where they said "if everyone else seems townie and someone who normally seems townie seems null, then they're scum." I'm p sure this was referring to VP and a50 at the time.

Yay, it's Towniest Town that ever Towned!

That’s only on my read walls but thanks for the laugh. You can have a townlean for that.

I'm going to go to the bar, but food for thought: I don't think Lap's wagon was pure and A50 wasn't the scum on it.

Looking at the OP it says the mafia was a goon so probably in the front half and planned bus would be where I would start.

FYI your slot didn't look great D1 IMO but not irredeemable.

I didn't think of going back to early D1 and looking for bus signs. Maybe your introduction is the best thing that could have happened for town because you will have a more accurate point of view going over D1 with a kind of outsider's perspective thing.

I'm curious what kind of an environment the game needs to be in for RTP to eat the night kill and for the scum to get executed successfully D1? Especially if a50 was also scum what it was that could have lead to a scum v scum BWs on D1?

PEdit: I'm already having some minor issues with Mathblade, shouldn't you be rereading now? You have some work to do with that slot your in.
PEdit2: removed my VP vote to avoid placing them at e-1

[Frogsterking]

Okay do you have any thoughts then on the two questions I posed at the bottom of my post?

[Frogsterking]

I'm curious what kind of an environment the game needs to be in for RTP to eat the night kill and for the scum to get executed successfully D1? Especially if a50 was also scum what it was that could have lead to a scum v scum BWs on D1?

[Frogsterking]

Nah. I have been on hiatus and I play the game for fun.

You’re more than welcome to push me if you have issues but I would rather just chill and get vibes and then compare to VCs and see what’s in and out of place.

The cog dis of that post is really weird.

How can I be the best thing to happen to town and be scum Frog?

I'm curious what kind of an environment the game needs to be in for RTP to eat the night kill and for the scum to get executed successfully D1? Especially if a50 was also scum what it was that could have lead to a scum v scum BWs on D1?

1275 is the answer to that.

Since I am not scum and haven’t read attempting to answer the latter is kinda pointless? I have no idea

I'm curious what kind of an environment the game needs to be in for RTP to eat the night kill and for the scum to get executed successfully D1? Especially if a50 was also scum what it was that could have lead to a scum v scum BWs on D1?

RTP had a lim boner for VP Baltar.

I want to avenge his death.

I could see a VP+Frog and just was a poor timed/executed push on Dat.

Okay well thank you for volunteering.

VOTE: Mathblade

I'm curious what kind of an environment the game needs to be in for RTP to eat the night kill and for the scum to get executed successfully D1? Especially if a50 was also scum what it was that could have lead to a scum v scum BWs on D1?

RTP had a lim boner for VP Baltar.

I want to avenge his death.

I'm down to hammer VP later after everyone has interacted or shared reads. RTP also wanted a potential scum v scum counterwagon and felt a50 was well suited for the bill yesterday, and I can't imagine anything has changed with a50's EoD1 and Mathblade's start today, so I feel equally righteous in continuing RTP's will by starting this counterwagon.

[Frogsterking]

by the way the hell is this read progression on a50, VP?
EoD1:

is "this" a50 or lap

2 for 1!

If I die tonight, yeet a50 into the sun.

I enjoy that a50 posted and did his best to say nothing concrete about Lap and the wagon on him.

VOTE: Laplacian

Day Over

Definitely think this flips scum now

________________
Day 2:

I'm going to go to the bar, but food for thought: I don't think Lap's wagon was pure and A50 wasn't the scum on it.

I'm going to go to the bar, but food for thought: I don't think Lap's wagon was pure and A50 wasn't the scum on it.

Looking at the OP it says the mafia was a goon so probably in the front half and planned bus would be where I would start.

Yeah, I am considering datisi might be a scum fuck here.

Did you mean to include the double negative so you

don't

think a50

wasn't

the scum on the lap wagon, meaning a50 is a scum and you're looking at Datisi as a potential third?

[Frogsterking]

Oh yeah absolutely

More just Frog doesn’t sit right with me.

Can’t get a beat on Skitter til she gets back.

I'm wondering if town!Math crosses me here btw. Would have been a pretty townie reaction because of the lack of self-preservation.

[Frogsterking]

I'm considering a Lap/VP/Math (a50) team that went for RTP as a hail Mary for the possibility RTP was both pushing them and also town's only investigative pr and they could dig themselves out. And now thescum morale is low and VP has given up, and Math replaced into this terrible position and is just stalling trying to figure out what they're supposed to do.

[Frogsterking]

I'm considering a Lap/VP/Math (a50) team that went for RTP as a hail Mary for the possibility RTP was both pushing them and also town's only investigative pr and they could dig themselves out. And now thescum morale is low and VP has given up, and Math replaced into this terrible position and is just stalling trying to figure out what they're supposed to do.

Lol at this. My scum game is feared for a reason.
My town game usually is except on MS.

Like I mean you can push it but it’s fundamentally wrong. Like I just need to get into scum’s psyche and they’re good as dead.

Are you an EM player?

[Frogsterking]

There isn’t a “figure out what to do” ever for me as scum and it just demonstrates you likely don’t know me and if you’re scum neither do your buddies

You're right I don't know you and if I had scum buddies I would have asked them about you.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Oh yeah absolutely

More just Frog doesn’t sit right with me.

Can’t get a beat on Skitter til she gets back.

I'm wondering if town!Math crosses me here btw. Would have been a pretty townie reaction because of the lack of self-preservation.

I'm considering a Lap/VP/Math (a50) team that went for RTP as a hail Mary for the possibility RTP was both pushing them and also town's only investigative pr and they could dig themselves out. And now thescum morale is low and VP has given up, and Math replaced into this terrible position and is just stalling trying to figure out what they're supposed to do.

Lol at this. My scum game is feared for a reason.
My town game usually is except on MS.

Like I mean you can push it but it’s fundamentally wrong. Like I just need to get into scum’s psyche and they’re good as dead.

There isn’t a “figure out what to do” ever for me as scum and it just demonstrates you likely don’t know me and if you’re scum neither do your buddies

I'm considering a Lap/VP/Math (a50) team that went for RTP as a hail Mary for the possibility RTP was both pushing them and also town's only investigative pr and they could dig themselves out. And now thescum morale is low and VP has given up, and Math replaced into this terrible position and is just stalling trying to figure out what they're supposed to do.

Lol at this. My scum game is feared for a reason.
My town game usually is except on MS.

Like I mean you can push it but it’s fundamentally wrong. Like I just need to get into scum’s psyche and they’re good as dead.

Are you an EM player?

Are you an EM player and would you have crossed me if you were town Math?

[Frogsterking]

I'm considering a Lap/VP/Math (a50) team that went for RTP as a hail Mary for the possibility RTP was both pushing them and also town's only investigative pr and they could dig themselves out. And now thescum morale is low and VP has given up, and Math replaced into this terrible position and is just stalling trying to figure out what they're supposed to do.

Lol at this. My scum game is feared for a reason.
My town game usually is except on MS.

Like I mean you can push it but it’s fundamentally wrong. Like I just need to get into scum’s psyche and they’re good as dead.

Are you an EM player?

I have played on so many sites with so many handles. Epic mafia if you mean that is one of the few I either didn’t or one game on

So you feel confident you could attempt to solo carry if you had replaced into the situation I described where Lap got taken out D1, scum missed their pr hit N1, and your buddy was about to get executed and had given up?

[Frogsterking]

I would be very surprised if A50 is mafia in this game

Is this just because of the scum v scum wagons on D1?

[Frogsterking]

I would be very surprised if A50 is mafia in this game

Is this just because of the scum v scum wagons on D1?

I thought he was pretty townie during d1 and the way he got kicked out of the game felt very townie

There is something related to this I want to bring up later on D2 actually.

I just looked through your iso for your reads and I saw you had skitter as a nullscum on your reads list, do you want to elaborate on your read of skitter at all?

PEdit: Okay it sounds like this is more along the lines of what you expect from town!Math.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Mathblade

[Frogsterking]

There is something related to this I want to bring up later on D2 actually.

I just looked through your iso for your reads and I saw you had skitter as a nullscum on your reads list, do you want to elaborate on your read of skitter at all?

PEdit: Okay it sounds like this is more along the lines of what you expect from town!Math.

no my read on the slot is based on how I believe A50 plays

Mathblade is a much stronger scum player than A50.

I think skitter's iso leans more towards scum than not, it felt somewhat strange for her to not have concrete thoughts about how the d1 elim went.

I have been wondering if skitter's play in this game is typical of her town game.

PEdit:

My best guess was that it was optimistic and the scum team felt pressure from RTP and maybe convinced themselves RTP was also the pr.

IDK could you see S_S and skitter deciding to do it?

RTP said they might FoS skitter if Lap was scum and a50 was town.

[Frogsterking]

RTP actively giving scum!skitter reasons to get paranoid:

Spoiler:

Your vp Townsend sucks

Why is lap town skitter

When have I ever aggressively pushed anyone this hard as scum on d1

i don't even think i should be townread here fwiw >.>

btw i think

if a50 flips town

skitter is massively sus for trying to defend lap in the way they are


its like active discouragement of a wagon you supposedly dont care about


but also ive seen skitter have a game where they were way off (chain of command) so wee

i agree that we're probably approaching the game from different povs
i guess i don't have the town-lap reference point to compare against, i'm just working off of what i see here

if you could talk to me about your vp scumread, i would appreciate it
also why am i getting townread by you?

actually awkward that you ask because im actually losing my townread on you the more you talk but a50 scum flip will completely shut me up and im ok with that wagon existing side by side with lap wagon

All in between of RTP loudly declaring skitter to be town.

Maybe it seems like more of a threat from scum!skitter pov.

Ari do you know if scum!skitter uses lines like "i dont think i should be townread" and "im having a hard time getting into this game" ?

PEdit: Funny you both say that, I was just considering putting VP at e-1 and seeing if Math hammered or anyone jumped in to unvote.

[Frogsterking]

Ari and datisi are the most likely candidates for scum.

I'll put you at e-1 if you don't case it now.

[Frogsterking]

VP talk to me i think u could be town xD
I want to hear ur case on daisy and ari

is there any reason u cant answer my question about ur read progression??

by the way the hell is this read progression on a50, VP?
EoD1:

is "this" a50 or lap

2 for 1!

If I die tonight, yeet a50 into the sun.

I enjoy that a50 posted and did his best to say nothing concrete about Lap and the wagon on him.

VOTE: Laplacian

Day Over

Definitely think this flips scum now

________________
Day 2:

I'm going to go to the bar, but food for thought: I don't think Lap's wagon was pure and A50 wasn't the scum on it.

I'm going to go to the bar, but food for thought: I don't think Lap's wagon was pure and A50 wasn't the scum on it.

Looking at the OP it says the mafia was a goon so probably in the front half and planned bus would be where I would start.

Yeah, I am considering datisi might be a scum fuck here.

Did you mean to include the double negative so you

don't

think a50

wasn't

the scum on the lap wagon, meaning a50 is a scum and you're looking at Datisi as a potential third?

if u can't answer i will drop it no mean to pressure

[Frogsterking]

if u can't answer i will drop it no mean to pressure

[Frogsterking]

Not so sure VP is scum tbh. They aren’t giving me dead scum vibes. So help an ol foagie out and let him talk

How familiar are you with VPB scum?

Never played with them. Just don’t feel they’re scum. And if they are they don’t feel trapped. So it’s more how they posted thing.

What about Ari's vibe?

[Frogsterking]

yes but you are townreading someone off vibes - so at a minimum you should know if those vibes are actually AI?

The vibes I use are based on the gamestate not a player.

Sort of like when the hero in a movie knows when there’s bad mojo.

Reading people is a weakness but games as a whole is strong.

It’s why I am good at TRs and shit at SRs

In other words:

Ari: Says correct thing
Mathblade: egoegoego

[Frogsterking]

yes but you are townreading someone off vibes - so at a minimum you should know if those vibes are actually AI?

The vibes I use are based on the gamestate not a player.

Sort of like when the hero in a movie knows when there’s bad mojo.

Reading people is a weakness but games as a whole is strong.

It’s why I am good at TRs and shit at SRs

In other words:

Ari: Says correct thing
Mathblade: egoegoego

Sounds like you're describing town!Math.

I kind of think so.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

yes but you are townreading someone off vibes - so at a minimum you should know if those vibes are actually AI?

The vibes I use are based on the gamestate not a player.

Sort of like when the hero in a movie knows when there’s bad mojo.

Reading people is a weakness but games as a whole is strong.

It’s why I am good at TRs and shit at SRs

In other words:

Ari: Says correct thing
Mathblade: egoegoego

It’s not ego it’s playstyle difference
I am on the spectrum so trying to be neurotypical leads to fights
So instead I hunt in my own way

Like by vibing you mean the context of how a player would be acting based on the stage of the game, what they're trying to achieve, and how their posts are going after achieving that goal? As opposed to the emotional tone and syntax of their post?

[Frogsterking]

Like VP makes sense to be scum on paper so I expect scum to be pushing VP regardless of VP’s alignment.

So unless VP town tells if scum game is over fast. But if VP isn’t scum it’s a safe place to hide.

So once I figure out the motivations it points to scum.

This is making sense to me.

[Frogsterking]

Like VP makes sense to be scum on paper so I expect scum to be pushing VP regardless of VP’s alignment.

So unless VP town tells if scum game is over fast. But if VP isn’t scum it’s a safe place to hide.

So once I figure out the motivations it points to scum.

This is making sense to me.

I was not really thinking about it from that point of view, but maybe I should have been.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

tl;dr :

Don't give a shit.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Can't say you weren't warned.

Hardclaim Masons with innocentvillager

Softed on page 1 & my reads list (same green color code for me and iv, different code for other hard townreads). Interactions between us show familiarity when I've never been in a game with them. They call me town but don't justify it, unlike their other townreads.

iv didn't want me to out on d1 and one of our earlier public interactions was him trying to discourage me from it when I mentioned in Mason chat that it would suck to out early.

Your chainsaw came back to bite you in the ass. Lap & Frog are scum together.

For my notes later.

Still think Froggy is red with Lap being red?

FYI this is pure tinfoil.

PEdit:

That's cool, Titus replaced late into a game I played a couple years ago and helped find the last scum.

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84025

This one. She noticed something about the D1 votes the rest of us hadn't.

[Frogsterking]

Laplacian

(7):

Reformed Toxic Player

, Andresvmb,

Datisi

, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking

,

Almost50

Almost50

(2):

VP Baltar,

skitter30
innocentvillager (1): OutWorldER

Frogsterking

(1):

Laplacian

Datisi

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting (1): Something_Smart

lap was afraid of frogs scumreading him for his vote. and the interactions otherwise make no sense as s/s - what scum makes a huge fucking case, the partner says they're gonna respond to it but then don't (shows fear of further townspewing frogs), and then frogs changes course last-minute to push iv? makes no sense, unless frogs is the most big brain big balls scum here. and odds are he's not.

.

[Frogsterking]

Laplacian

(7):

Reformed Toxic Player

, Andresvmb,

Datisi

, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking

,

Almost50

Almost50

(2):

VP Baltar,

skitter30
innocentvillager (1): OutWorldER

Frogsterking

(1):

Laplacian

Datisi

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting (1): Something_Smart

lap was afraid of frogs scumreading him for his vote. and the interactions otherwise make no sense as s/s - what scum makes a huge fucking case, the partner says they're gonna respond to it but then don't (shows fear of further townspewing frogs), and then frogs changes course last-minute to push iv? makes no sense, unless frogs is the most big brain big balls scum here. and odds are he's not.

.

in a world where VP is taken at their word. Which has an expiration date for me without a night flip.
wagonomics indicates 1 on a50, 1 in the little wagons (including nl) and 1 in the buss.
Ari WERE u the busser???

[Frogsterking]

Laplacian

(7):

Reformed Toxic Player

, Andresvmb,

Datisi

, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking

,

Almost50

Almost50

(2):

VP Baltar,

skitter30

innocentvillager (1):

OutWorldER

Frogsterking

(1):

Laplacian

Datisi

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting (1): Something_Smart

lap was afraid of frogs scumreading him for his vote. and the interactions otherwise make no sense as s/s - what scum makes a huge fucking case, the partner says they're gonna respond to it but then don't (shows fear of further townspewing frogs), and then frogs changes course last-minute to push iv? makes no sense, unless frogs is the most big brain big balls scum here. and odds are he's not.

.

in a world where VP is taken at their word. Which has an expiration date for me without a night flip.
wagonomics indicates 1 on a50, 1 in the little wagons (including nl) and 1 in the buss.
Ari WERE u the busser???

nope!

something like this?

[Frogsterking]

Laplacian

(7):

Reformed Toxic Player

, Andresvmb,

Datisi

, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking

,

Almost50

Almost50

(2):

VP Baltar,

skitter30

innocentvillager

(1): OutWorldER

Frogsterking

(1):

Laplacian

Datisi

(1):

innocentvillager

Not Voting (1): Something_Smart

lap was afraid of frogs scumreading him for his vote. and the interactions otherwise make no sense as s/s - what scum makes a huge fucking case, the partner says they're gonna respond to it but then don't (shows fear of further townspewing frogs), and then frogs changes course last-minute to push iv? makes no sense, unless frogs is the most big brain big balls scum here. and odds are he's not.

.

in a world where VP is taken at their word. Which has an expiration date for me without a night flip.
wagonomics indicates 1 on a50, 1 in the little wagons (including nl) and 1 in the buss.
Ari WERE u the busser???

nope!

something like this?

I don't think OWER kills RTP when RTP was hard defending OWER yesterday

well running out of options.

i dont see lap voting me with scum!andre already there, if u look at the earlier VC. i thought newbscum were paranoid about distancing.

[Frogsterking]

seems most likely VP is lying.

[Frogsterking]

i dont see lap voting me with scum!andre already there, if u look at the earlier VC. i thought newbscum were paranoid about distancing.

for what it's worth, out of reasons to consider andres town, this doesn't feel like an actually good one, i don't think the fact andres was memevoting you would make lap not want to vote there if they're partnered

Well i stand corrected.

I'm wondering what Occam's Razor would indicate in this situation if i knew how to apply it correctly.

[Frogsterking]

why did you give up on questioning ari that quickly?

Who me?

[Frogsterking]

why did you give up on questioning ari that quickly?

You could always question me yourself dear <3

I was thinking it made the most sense for Datisi to interrogate Ari.

[Frogsterking]

I've been independently researching Occam's Razor.

From examples.yourdictionary.com:

"Non sunt multiplicanda entia sine necessitate, or 'entities must not be multiplied without necessity...'

Occam's razor is a good rule of thumb if you remember that it depends on making fewer assumptions based on as much evidence as possible. The doctor made several assumptions about the patient's supposed cold without examining all the evidence. Jumping to conclusions is not the same as relying on an explanation that makes the fewest assumptions."

IMO we can't apply Occam's Razor because we haven't examined all of the evidence yet, at least two players haven't given testimony at all and others may have more to contribute, so at this point we're still just jumping to conclusions.

[Frogsterking]

Is it not possible that both VP is telling the truth and there was no buss?

[Frogsterking]

Is there any evidence there was a buss aside from the assumption based on how D1 ended?

[Frogsterking]

Is there any reason skitt and OutworldER CANT be the scum team?

[Frogsterking]

@datisi

and

@mathblade

I understand that point Math, and I'm asking if there's any reason besides that? I think it's a good theory but it's still a theory.

ari, who is scum?

<skitter - iv - vpb>

why do you think skitt is scum, and no "i'm sheeping you" as an answer

FYI I brought this up with Ari last night and it seemed to check out. It seemed like she had thought about it beforehand.

Again I guess we need skitter to testify though. We don't have all the evidence yet.

If there's no reason why the scum team can't be skitter and OutWorldER or IV (because of skitter's associatives with Something_Smart,) and based on their being no buss along with VP telling the truth..

then if we look at the possibility that VP is lying and there was no buss, who is scum with him? Can anyone be ruled out?

[Frogsterking]

Here's colored in from 1.04 assuming there was no buss and VP is lying.

Spoiler:

Frogsterking

(3):

Andresvmb

,

Laplacian

,

VP Baltar

innocentvillager (2):

Reformed Toxic Player

, OutWorldER

Datisi

(2):

innocentvillager,

House

Laplacian

(2):

Datisi

,

Aristeia

VP Baltar

(1):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (3):

Almost50

, Something_Smart, skitter30

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is February 5 at 10:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-05 23:00:00)

VP could be attempting to go down with a fight here on D2, maybe to survive another day and fish out a pr in the process, with the backup plan of one of the uncolored in the VC above finishing later.

[Frogsterking]

I think it's very odd that House and IV townread each other after neither of them died.

Do you see any reason to rule out a VP / IV team?

[Frogsterking]

Do you see any reason to rule out a VP / IV team?

Didn't VP confirm Math as town? That would be a weird thing to do, but I guess it's not

impossible

.

Like especially if from scum!VP's point of view Math is basically cleared already, or at least VP is expecting town to view Math that way.

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys I read Lap's most recent posts as pr so don't wagon him please if he doesn't seem to be town telling.

There is literally zero town motivation in this post.

Hey I agree with House here!

Ari Frog?

Not true:

I didn't scum read Lap yet and his posts were putting me on tilt so I wanted to try and get him night killed.

[Frogsterking]

i don't think it required a galaxy brain from the scum side to realize that is going to flip

I don't think it was set in stone though, or at least I didn't, not to the point where radio silence and antispew is preferable to at least trying to stir up some chaos.

you're talking about a newbscum spewing chaos

dude was too afraid to respond to frogs's case because it was gonna spew frogs town even harder, and i recall lapla being online

i think it's not unlikely he just froze

I can confirm he was online.

It's possible we're dealing with a situation where the weakest link just got busted D1 and scum team being experienced and maybe not in a great position to bus, decided to stay off the wagon, expecting us to look be looking there anyway.

If you look qualitatively at the way the day actually went it makes sense for it to be an off wagon day.