Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[Frogsterking]

My first first post!

Hello everyone. I now realize I should have inned as a SE because I have a few games under my belt already...

Cool we have an armada of SEs this game.

VOTE: yolohammer doesnt sound like a newbie name.

I have a supplemental D1 start method called the SSS (standard survey start). I think it might be better after the RVS is over rather than right at the start of the game. I'll probably post it around 10-12 pages in.

[Frogsterking]

I'm still procrastinating on posting the SSS.

ProgoWoshua you gonna come in?
Don’t be shy! Come and say hi!
I’ve got tea and crackers setting up on the fly.

I'm a little busy right now. But I pretend to respond to Daniel's strategy soon.

You mean this? I'm not sure why they said pretend, I assume they are joking.

I meant "intend". Sorry.

Wow this is a really, really unfortunate slip if you're town. This looks like a consciousness of guilt slip.

VOTE: ProgoWoshua

TistDaniel seems obvtown and I'm just going to leave it at that.

[Frogsterking]

What on earth is an conciousness of guilt slip and why would that ever happen.

Consciousness of guilt is one of the main foundations of scumhunting. It's one of the reasons players change behavior between alignment and is accepted in court of law:

https://nycourts.gov/judges/evidence/4- ... _Guilt.pdf

As for why a slip like this can happen, there was something else I was looking for but I found this first which is interesting and comes from a different approach:

https://pubs.asha.org/doi/10.1044/jshr.2203.421 (abstract of 1979 study on priming)

In the cognitive psych and neuropsych world I'd say that while tired and distracted we have less ability to inhibit our autopilot.

[Frogsterking]

I don't think consciousness of guilt is the right terminology for what is being accused of being a slip, it seems to be something different

Yeah I was wondering

[Frogsterking]

This is far from being the only false cognate between Portuguese and English, but it's the only one I have a problem with. For some reason, main brain has fixated on it and I'll misuse it if I'm not careful.

Yes, it is annoying.

This is the third time I've made this mistake in this site alone,

and this is only my second game!

What on earth is an conciousness of guilt slip and why would that ever happen.

Portuguese word for "Intends" = "Pretende".

This is a great explanation UNVOTE: ProgoWoshua

[Frogsterking]

When I made the same mistake last game, only one person made a big deal out of it, and she was town. So I'm not read to suspect Frogsterking and ofmercia just yet.

This is pretty townie, I think if ProgoWoshua were scum they have the choice of leaving this post out and pushing ofmercia or I later.

[Frogsterking]

Sorry, meant to say "some fields of research, such as *personality* research"

You're going to like my next post a lot more then

[Frogsterking]

TistDaniel is campaigning for the night kill with their D1 play. Following best play from everyone they're going to be the night kill unless their reads are really bad.

My SSS project which contains the five factor model personality stuff I think TistDaniel was mentioning earlier is still on the way. I might be able to post it tonight.

If anyone is wondering I'm pretty sure Progowoshua and TistDaniel are town. I briefly FoSed ofmercia but now I think they're null and I need to think about it. I have one right now FoS but it's kind of weird.

[Frogsterking]

[quote="In post 180, fwogcarf"][/quote]

Yes we can do it.

What did you like about Norwee?

[Frogsterking]

Yes we can do it.

What did you like about Norwee?

I like their reactions to the "slip" along with their engagement with ofmercia. I think their solving style is townie and I really like how they went through with their ofmercia vote. I also think that their prodding of frogo is townie because it's someone trying to get discussion started up.

Okay, do you remember how to read a players iso?

Can you find a player's iso in this game who seems to have the most consistent train of thought from post to post, and player who seems to have the least consistent train of thought from post to post?

[Frogsterking]

I finished reading the isos. VOTE: KittyTacky,

FoS

Dunnstral for the partner by PoE.

[Frogsterking]

Both Tist and Norwe are probably town. I played with scum Norwe a while ago and he was... different. Like less talkative? Snarkier? I don't quite remember how but it was a different style.

Okay that's good to know. Do you have a read on Auto or Dunnst yet?

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Frogsterking
Looking back on it, i think their "oh you slipped" stuff on ProgoWoshua was pretty opportunistic so i want to vote here. They unvote later of course, but that is after negative thread response so i don't give it very much credit.

Spoiler:

[Frogsterking]

Is this the survey strat?

Nah you will know when you see it

[Frogsterking]

I apologize for my lurking. I think I've kept fairly well read on this game.

I think frognworth and KittyTacky are likely to flip scum. VOTE: frognworth I'm down to wagon either.

I think Dunnstral/StrangeMatters and AutoDefennstrel are the limbait slots who are are likely to be easy pushes who flip town.

I think Progo put enough effort into their posts that it's sort of making his life difficult as scum so I think he's town. I think Norwee's vote on me and paranoia of my slot is likely to come from town and some of his posts were too helpful I think for if he were playing scum. And I also am not paranoid of Tist who I think is town.

Then I think ofmercia's play is slightly more aggressive than the other players at this table which can sometimes lead to getting his slot scum read, and in my experience, kind of like the limbait slots, he's likely to flip town.

So then I just have frognworth and KittyTacky left and I read through their isos and I see hanging back, pushing easy slots while staying on the sidelanes, posting just enough to get slightly townread. I'm somewhat confident there's at least 1 scum between KittyTacky and frognworth.

[Frogsterking]

Frognworth is who?

fwogcarf

[Frogsterking]

…would you please?

Yes! Do you agree/disagree with my scum reads?

[Frogsterking]

Don’t see why you think Auto is limbait.

Doesn't post much, paranoid of a popular town read.

[Frogsterking]

354 and 356 are more believable to me on a qualitative level than the positions being taken by fwog and Kitty.

[Frogsterking]

I really dislike how fwog and Kitty feel like they put just enough effort in to get slightly town read, and how they're both presently posed with their outted scum reads to sheep whichever limbait town goes for EoD.

[Frogsterking]

This is a Newbie table and I think it's also high-skilled as far as Newbie tables go. In a high skilled newbie table I think newbscum who don't replace out are going to be putting a moderate amount of effort into getting townread.
In Kitty and fwog I see the fruits of a moderate amount of effort into getting townread. I think that's more likely than Dunnstral/Strange or Auto being incompetent at getting townread. I think based on probability town is unlikely to choose correctly on the first couple of wagons so I'm very willing to look beyond common early choices that are wrong. I think there is enormous expected value in it for town because of the impact hitting correctly on D1 has for town's win rate.
I believe executing between Kitty and fwog has the highest chance of flipping scum of any pair of players at this table.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE:
Eh i guess we never get the survey thing.

Alright, what is this survey? I've been reading and keep hearing about frog's survey but it's barely ever talked about beyond that other than just egging them on.

My first first post!

Hello everyone. I now realize I should have inned as a SE because I have a few games under my belt already...

Cool we have an armada of SEs this game.

VOTE: yolohammer doesnt sound like a newbie name.

I have a supplemental D1 start method called the SSS (standard survey start). I think it might be better after the RVS is over rather than right at the start of the game. I'll probably post it around 10-12 pages in.

I've been procrastinating completing it because of my perfectionism! I'm sorry it's my fault I haven't posted it. I am attempting to make it up by contributing what I can to improve Town's chances.

While I was procrastinating on completing it all that time I payed a higher level of attention to this game than usual so I'm trying to share my reads as clearly as I can. I want to redeem my slot so I'm hoping my reads are better than usual due to my increased monitoring of the game state while procrastinating.

[Frogsterking]

My wife's birthday today, and she has tomorrow off as well, so I'm probably going to be less active, unless she decides to go off with friends. I'll reply to everything by Friday morning EST at the latest.

Congratulations! I hope you both have a great time.

[Frogsterking]

Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.

[Frogsterking]

Thanks, Frog!

Could you use help with your survey? If you're working with the IPIP, I have some experience with that.

Yes I could use help. My design for the SSS has a first and fourth short written response question section (like a mini pre test and post test questionnaire), the second section is completing and posting the results of a free and credible OCEAN test and the third section is a 15 question Likert scale I made to help with D1 scumhunting and early strategy.

Likely only desktop users can be expected to complete it and players can opt to complete individual sections whenever they get an opportunity rather than all at once.

The place I got stuck on is which 3-5 questions would be best for the mini questionnaires at the beginning and end.

[Frogsterking]

I think the aim of the first and fourth sections is to prompt players to start sharing useful information quickly. I'm predicting this has some minor positive affect on town win rate or D1 scum lim. Of course if the questions are poorly chosen and useless information starts being shared very quickly I don't think that'll be positive for town win rate or D1 scum lim. So there is some degree of precision required in choosing what those questions will be.

I think the OCEAN section was supposed to take much longer than the other sections to complete. Completing the non-OCEAN sections was only supposed to take an average like 5 minutes each.

How accurate are the shorter versions of the IPIP compared to the standard versions?

[Frogsterking]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

[Frogsterking]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Why so?

I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me

I think asking why over and over again is one kind of scummy reaction to being voted.

[Frogsterking]

My townreads are Daniel, Mercia and tbh i think Strangematter has been pretty townie as well.

I agree with you and I also include you and Progo in my town reads but I don't include Strangematter.

[Frogsterking]

Fair enough: @379

I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.

Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.

You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky.

[Frogsterking]

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.

[Frogsterking]

@Daniel Yes questions like that, and that sounds great about your work on the IPIP.

[Frogsterking]

Fair enough: @379

I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.

Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.

You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky.

Why do you keep cutting off the rest of 392? My "fair enough" is in response to Progo insisting I answer fwog's questions. All of 392 is in response to 379.

[Frogsterking]

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.

[Frogsterking]

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.

As in, I think it's a scum tell for Kitty I don't think it's a town tell.

[Frogsterking]

@400 it's okay it was just a misunderstanding.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: KittyTacky

I think this vote is a little better than fwog now.

[Frogsterking]

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.

Okay, how is agreeing with the majority specifically a mafia move? It wasn't at all far down after everyone else, am I scummy for being the last one to say so?

Agreeing with the majority is a scum tell called coasting. Being the last one might be a scum tell, it depends.

[Frogsterking]

Kitty can you walk me through your thought process of what's going on with you and ofmercia?

[Frogsterking]

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.

Okay, how is agreeing with the majority specifically a mafia move? It wasn't at all far down after everyone else, am I scummy for being the last one to say so?

Agreeing with the majority is a scum tell called coasting. Being the last one might be a scum tell, it depends.

I really don't think it's a scumtell by itself because otherwise holding the majority opinion is scummy. I was AFK at the time everyone else was agreeing.

Kitty can you walk me through your thought process of what's going on with you and ofmercia?

I explained this before. First, you pushed Progo. Weird due to the reason but not outrageously scummy by itself. Then ofmercia jumped on the wagon

before even page 10

on reasoning that I feel is extremely flimsy then very quickly backed down when called out on it. Something about that felt either like a scum trying to save themself or just limbait.

Yes I think this is understandable. What is going on with you and ofmercia now though?

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: KittyTacky

VOTE: StrangeMatters

Okay I'm willing to concede scum might just be hiding in the other lurker slots.

It's your turn to try your hand at game solving, StrangeMatters.

[Frogsterking]

That's evasive Strange stop stalling and post your reads.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so walk me through your read progression on Kitty's slot.

[Frogsterking]

Kitty's not here and I want to see a progression.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so walk me through your read progression on Kitty's slot.

Part of my issue here is I look at Kitty's slot and noted that they have been pushing ofmercia for the entire day now and barring out most everything else. Part of the problem is I'm stuck on whether or not scum would end up tunneling this hard or not. I keep leaning on the former right now but I don't see much against the latter.

Okay great. And how is this current view different from your view while I scum cased Kitty and fwog?

[Frogsterking]

Interesting that Strange made it to town for you from their recent posts, Kitty. I'm not buying it from Strange yet.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not so sure about my vote anymore.

UNVOTE: ofmercia

I re-read their progression this game, and I don't particularly think of it as scummy.

I think this is wise.

[Frogsterking]

Strategy discussion - does no elimination on d1 help town or scum?

It's very bad for town we want to try and hit correctly on D1 or D2 for best chances.

[Frogsterking]

Norwee if you're on now, I did some poking and I think there are two scum in Strange/Auto/Kitty.

Pedit:
If you reread my iso you might see I went down this path the last couple of days and made some discoveries.

[Frogsterking]

447 I'd rather you read my iso including the push on fwog, Kitty and Strange. I think Strange is likely to be one.

[Frogsterking]

ofmercia do you have a sales background?

[Frogsterking]

448 I think the fact that you were unaware of the choice to include an inference of tension between ofmercia and I makes it an intuition and I believe there is more value in exploring your intuition than in accommodating ofmercia's fear.

[Frogsterking]

ofmercia do you have a sales background?

[Frogsterking]

ofmercia do you have a sales background?

Lol no why?

I was curious. I have one in some ways from working as a server. Do you have a marketing or performance arts background?

[Frogsterking]

No. Is this the survey?

I mean deciding on these types of questions was what I got stuck on.

Now I'm curious, what was your read on Kitty's potential partners while I was pushing fwog?

[Frogsterking]

It wasn't my focus just yet.

Okay. When did you become focused on Kitty?

[Frogsterking]

Yeah i will send the post #s. @Norwee

[Frogsterking]

@Strange

Okay great, who were you vibing with around that same time while I was casing Kitty and fwog?

[Frogsterking]

@ofmercia

Okay, and who was high on your radar before Kitty?

[Frogsterking]

# 392 396 399 403 404

@Norwee

[Frogsterking]

@Strange

Okay great, who were you vibing with around that same time while I was casing Kitty and fwog?

Personally? I didn't really vibe with anyone around that time. Not much really happened outside of you casing Fwog, and then Kitty that pinged me as something townie.

Okay, one more question, who were do you feel you were vibing with once you replaced in?

[Frogsterking]

@Strange

Okay great, who were you vibing with around that same time while I was casing Kitty and fwog?

Personally? I didn't really vibe with anyone around that time. Not much really happened outside of you casing Fwog, and then Kitty that pinged me as something townie.

Okay, one more question, who were do you feel you were vibing with once you replaced in?

Sorry typo

*Who do you feel you were vibing with once you replaced in?

[Frogsterking]

The other game in which you were town?

[Frogsterking]

Yeah that's a rough tell to walk into Strange..

[Frogsterking]

@Auto

What are your current reads?

[Frogsterking]

I think it's probable the average level of townplay in this game was really high and the scum just lurked out.

[Frogsterking]

Like who wants to play scum in a table where: people aren't bickering and are just openly discussing their reads, data is being recorded and posted throughout the game, no one is spamming the thread, the town all townread each other and the town are even collaborating together on a survey to make it easier to find the scum?

[Frogsterking]

The other game in which you were town?

I meant my last newbie game.

Yes and I think you also meant the last game in which you were Town.

[Frogsterking]

The other game in which you were town?

I meant my last newbie game.

I'm about to deathtunnel you so if you've had any strong scumreads you've been holding back I suggest you case them now.

[Frogsterking]

I think it's probable the average level of townplay in this game was really high and the scum just lurked out.

Hmmmm ehhh welll…
Maybe? Maybe i’m just a bit too enbittered by me experience but it’s usually never that easy lmao.

Yeah I am too.

Maybe the experienced playerbase is preselected for players who are in the minority and prefer rolling scum?

[Frogsterking]

@ofmercia

How much experience have you had with social deduction games in general, and how much experience have you had with forum mafia specifically?

[Frogsterking]

I remember Kitty as being experienced with forum mafia?

[Frogsterking]

Norwee how would you react getting a scum role pm replacing into a table as SE when the table looks like this:

Like who wants to play scum in a table where: people aren't bickering and are just openly discussing their reads, data is being recorded and posted throughout the game, no one is spamming the thread, the town all townread each other and the town are even collaborating together on a survey to make it easier to find the scum?

[Frogsterking]

Okay so hypothetically by this time your iso wouldn't look like Strange's current iso at all?

[Frogsterking]

Okay and if fwog and Kitty are both revealed as IC? Then what do you think is the game state?

[Frogsterking]

Okay and if fwog and Kitty are both revealed as IC? Then what do you think is the game state?

Would look at Strange and Auto probably.

Yeah I'm looking at Strange + one of Auto/Kitty/ofmercia now.

I think Strange is thread flaking now because they walked into a scumtell and got called out.

[Frogsterking]

Plus the last time someone did this exact scumtell they were very wrong, like right now.

I gtg but I’ll be back.

I'm listening, I suspect we're thinking of different scum tells, and I'm open to being wrong.

[Frogsterking]

@Auto

What are your current reads?

Been busy, will read through the thread properly later today. I'm just waiting for D1 to be over with, truth be told.

Okay. Do you mind being the D1 execution?

[Frogsterking]

I remember Kitty as being experienced with forum mafia?

Not super experienced, I took a large break, but I regret not inning as SE. But I have 600+ hours in Town of Salem.

I think this counts. I think you're a little quick.

[Frogsterking]

Okay and if fwog and Kitty are both revealed as IC? Then what do you think is the game state?

Would look at Strange and Auto probably.

Yeah I'm looking at Strange + one of Auto/Kitty/ofmercia now.

I think Strange is thread flaking now because they walked into a scumtell and got called out.

They were gone for less than a day and you accuse them of flaking? People have real lives.

Yes and do you town read Strange?

[Frogsterking]

Is there any reason you wouldn't be willing to die in Strange's place, Kitty?

[Frogsterking]

Strange started talking about this other game they were town in because they're not town in this game.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: ofmercia

[Frogsterking]

[Frogsterking]

Hey look on the brightside at least now someone else finally believes you about ofmercia.

[Frogsterking]

I'll also take an auto lim over a no lim though I'm not convinced Auto is the best chance for hitting scum.

[Frogsterking]

Vanilla townie. Have a good day.

And my leans remain same. I could've made 10 more posts reiterating them again and again, but oh well.

Here, Auto is showing acceptance of their own elimination while in E-1. This is a town tell, and I don't think newbie scum would be able to fake that. I'm townreading Auto right now.

There's a few hours left in the deadline. Can we still eliminate someone else?

I'm willing to flip it onto ofmercia, Kitty or Strange

[Frogsterking]

I guess I want ofmercia here but I'd be willing to flip it onto Kitty or Strange.

[Frogsterking]

Hmm or are you trying to fool us???

[Frogsterking]

Not a dumb question IMO, I think I asked something similar when I started playing here, I was used to factional night kills as well.

[Frogsterking]

IMO both scum and town are a little confused

[Frogsterking]

I'm watching guys

[Frogsterking]

I'm watching guys

Am I still your top scum read?

My priority of elimination is ofmercia > Kitty > Strange > Everyone else

[Frogsterking]

I thought you were thinking about the other game because you're trying to replicate your town meta. Something like that. Could be a BS tell.

[Frogsterking]

I'm watching guys

Am I still your top scum read?

My priority of elimination is ofmercia > Kitty > Strange > Everyone else

How willing r you to vote Kitty today.
I’m asking because i just don’t see why everyone think Mercia is scummy?
Can you try to sell me on why it’s a good lim in your opinion?

i mean who else is it?

[Frogsterking]

it's a poe read.

scum were most comfortable voting each other i guess.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: ofmercia

[Frogsterking]

Norwee is my only town read

Kitty > Strange for final scum

rest null

[Frogsterking]

Frog i think Kitty has a higher chance of flipping scum than Mercia right now.

Then who is kitty's partner?

[Frogsterking]

coughoffmerciacough

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE:

[Frogsterking]

I'll wait and see where this is going

[Frogsterking]

Who would everyone have killed N1?

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: kittytacky

[Frogsterking]

You guys think the Tist kill was made to provide us with little info?

Or something along those lines.

Seeing a lot of "we don't have a lot to work with" (throwing myself into this as well because I am genuinely lost on who the team could be.)

It's possible. I was thinking the kill was made because scum team are confused about what they're supposed to do.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: ofmercia

I want VCA

[Frogsterking]

Okay my reads are messed I had a very specific and incorrect interpretation of the gamestate

[Frogsterking]

In what way did you have an incorrect view of the gamestate?

I thought fwog and progo were masons because of Progo's reaction to my fwog push D1. That not being true kind of throws my whole PoE into question.

[Frogsterking]

Why would you think they were masons?

Because Progo looked like they were softing it with how hard they were chainsawing for fwog yesterday.

[Frogsterking]

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.

Around this time I thought Progo was softing to me

[Frogsterking]

I don't know Norwee this game is kind of hard.

[Frogsterking]

I think scum will win if we miss today I suggest unvoting fwog unless you're confident.

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Strange is sort of open wolfing at this point?

[Frogsterking]

The other game in which you were town?

I meant my last newbie game.

I'm about to deathtunnel you so if you've had any strong scumreads you've been holding back I suggest you case them now.

literally the most antitown thing you could do

Vanilla townie. Have a good day.

And my leans remain same. I could've made 10 more posts reiterating them again and again, but oh well.

Here, Auto is showing acceptance of their own elimination while in E-1. This is a town tell, and I don't think newbie scum would be able to fake that. I'm townreading Auto right now.

There's a few hours left in the deadline. Can we still eliminate someone else?

UNVOTE: Frogsterking
VOTE: fwogcarf

I agree with ofmercia. I'm willing to eliminate fwog today.

StrangeMatter

seems like i can't dig myself out of this one

good luck everyone

claiming Vanilla Town

It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.

[Frogsterking]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

Does he not claim pr tho?

[Frogsterking]

Does Strange/Kitty or Strange/Fwog make more sense?

[Frogsterking]

We should prob switch to Kitty IMO

[Frogsterking]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

We can always mass claim today and go for a solve i guess. Might be higher winrate.

[Frogsterking]

Nevermind, nevermind my last post!

[Frogsterking]

Hmm what to do what to do

[Frogsterking]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

Does he not claim pr tho?

This is pretty much WIFOM at it's finest.
You can say he claims VT because that is what you don't expect scum to do, hence wrongly townread scum. Or he is genuinely town that is just VT.
Can you tell the difference? If not then this is an bad argument to switch off imo.

[...]

It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.

After I townread Auto for not defending himself at E-1, it became a valid strategy for scum too.

My PoE at this moment is Frog, fwog and Strange. I too want to hear more from Strange, but with the way things are right now, I want to eliminate either Frog or fwog.

This would explain why fwog's reaction to being accused was so different between D1 and D2.

StrangeMatter

seems like i can't dig myself out of this one

good luck everyone

StrangeMatter

seems like i can't dig myself out of this one

good luck everyone

cant even do the fuckin vote right lmfao

this is the most lost i've been playing a game in a long time because i was so confident on an Auto/??? world and seeing Auto flip town literally made my worldviewing crash down

Strange would be the person i would go for but it's a weak read and it's a gutread

so do with that what you will

Very wifomy and the tone is completely different from D1:

Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.

Hm, no.

Here is the problem I have with some of your reads. First off you never answered my question when I asked how I, specifically, was scummier than Kitty. Along the way you continue to talk about the two of us in a couple of short posts that don't say anything. You've linked a couple posts describing that they had more content than the "positions" we've taken. Why is this? And then right after that you say "I don't like how Fwog/Kitty put just enough effort to get townread and are posed with their outted scumreads on town limbait". There is so much wrong with this statement. Number one, of course you put in effort, that's usually how a lot of people get townread day 1. Look at Tist with his wordy posts, look at Norwegian with the amount of posts they've made. Then you look at someone like yourself/Auto/StrangeMatter who haven't made a whole lot of posts/put a whole lot of words in them. The top posters managed to get themselves out of mostly consensus PoE for today (because I know some people don't like Tist, which is fine). Specifically the "outted scumread" part is pinging me because you're discouraging me from making a scumread on someone who you think is town. I'm allowed to have my own opinions about people in the game, and in this case, I think Auto is scum. I'll get to that in a minute

Second off, your limbait reads aren't good reads. Your explanation for Auto being town is because he "doesn't post much" and is "paranoid of a popular town read". The second reason for that is fine, but the first one isn't. How does it make sense for someone like Auto to be town in your eyes because he doesn't post much, while someone like me is, in your words "50% to flip scum", with a decent amount of posts? I get that I don't put words in my posts but that's just how I play. I'm not a wordy type of guy unless I absolutely need to be.

Third off is the post where you say "You have a 50% chance to flip scum, which is great expected value for town" itself. If you're really relying on self calculated RNG more than your own intuition and logic thinking then you need to change your game up a bit because that's not how mafia works. You and Tist can calculate all the probabilities you want but at the end of the day, the game is about deception, not probability. In that same post you say "I scumread a lot of your reactions to be willing to double down on you" Ok, what reactions pinged you? Which ones were scummier than others?

This is after I accuse fwog.

The difference between D1 and D2 fwog makes sense if one of these is true:

1) fwog is scum hoping to be townread by changing their reaction
2) fwog is scum being bussed now
3) fwog is town and more resigned to their fate

There is something else fishy, that everyone is agreeing. Usually everyone agreeing is a bad sign. It means one of:

1) fwog's partner is completely lacking presence in the game
2) fwog is scum being bussed now
3) fwog is town being mislimmed

I guess I'm leaning toward 1) being true for both. The only partner seems to be Strange for these explanations.

I guess the 2) and 3) explanations need to be revisited once fwog/Strange is ruled out.

[Frogsterking]

I'm listening!

[Frogsterking]

Kitty the strength of your townread on Strange is creeping me out a little bit.

[Frogsterking]

You're the only person saying this. If you want to change the vote your best bet is Kitty. I would definitely consider between Kitty and fwog. I would consider between Strange and fwog but I'm not sure if it will get enough votes.

[Frogsterking]

There are partner tells on this page of Progo + Strange. Progo has a poor read progression on Strange and claims to be willing to push Strange while not directing much shade heavily in that direction. Then, on this page Progo asks strange a question (a very easy question) and Strange completely ignores Progo.

Progo claims to be willing to execute Strange but I think there's a reasonable chance Progo is lying and the solve is actually Progo + Strange.

I say we call Progo on his bluff and flip the vote onto Strange. I think if Progo tries to resist a Strange wagon now that he's claimed he's willing to change the execution then Progo is caught lying about Strange and I FoS both of them for the team.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Strange

I'm fine if everbody wants to vote fwog because you think it's the best choice, but I discourage you from voting fwog because of autopilot or you think it's optimal for any reason besides hitting scum.

[Frogsterking]

By the way I think if fwog is actually scum then their partner is modt likely Strange, that's part of the reason I like this vote.

[Frogsterking]

In this gamestate the sustained activity of Progo and Strange is a scumtell by the way.

The tell is that Town players are getting bored/stuck/complacent and scum are gaining morale resulting in the change of activity levels within most slots here.

Also Strange should be voted more than fwog here anyway because Strange is more scummy than fwog. Fwog needs to try a little harder here, it's a very discouraging position to play in and it's also an important one.

[Frogsterking]

If I'm correct about this solve then Strange might pop in here to hammer fwog and stop me from townspewing.

[Frogsterking]

Norwee/ofmercia need to vote Strange IMO because Kitty is the mark for scum team in this solve because of his townread of Strange.

[Frogsterking]

There are partner tells on this page of Progo + Strange. Progo has a poor read progression on Strange and claims to be willing to push Strange while not directing much shade heavily in that direction. Then, on this page Progo asks strange a question (a very easy question) and Strange completely ignores Progo.

Progo claims to be willing to execute Strange but I think there's a reasonable chance Progo is lying and the solve is actually Progo + Strange.

I say we call Progo on his bluff and flip the vote onto Strange. I think if Progo tries to resist a Strange wagon now that he's claimed he's willing to change the execution then Progo is caught lying about Strange and I FoS both of them for the team.

Strange answered the question from progo.

Let me check. It's going to need to be some profound stuff.

[Frogsterking]

@ofmercia @kitty

If I share something to make you more confident in my gamesolve will you sheep my vote on Strange?

[Frogsterking]

@ofmercia @kitty

If I share something to make you more confident in my gamesolve will you sheep my vote on Strange?

Been waiting since day 2 started already.

Okay: I think you and Kitty are Town Power Roles, Progo and Strange are scum.

[Frogsterking]

@ofmercia @kitty

If I share something to make you more confident in my gamesolve will you sheep my vote on Strange?

Been waiting since day 2 started already.

Okay: I think you and Kitty are Town Power Roles, Progo and Strange are scum.

Is it you and fwog as scum team? With kitty's vote looking scummy you decided the play was to openly defend your partner?

No. My efforts here have been sincere. If I were scum a PR dies N1, killing Daniel was a newb play.

[Frogsterking]

Feel free to grill me about my play because your decision about whether to trust me is very important

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

[Frogsterking]

Feel free to grill me about my play because your decision about whether to trust me is very important

I assumed you had something big that would gain my confidence for a sheep. Not just a speculation on who you think the power roles are.

It's not a speculation it's a demonstration and it's working. I can't change your mind, only you can do that, and I think trying to ask the right questions is good play here, regardless of the result.

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

In my opinion what's happening with fwog here is that they became complacent and waited too long to solve the game. Now faced with the threat of loss fwog is motivated into action, but the time pressure and the accusations of the other players are making the solve much more difficult than if they had started much earlier in the game.

[Frogsterking]

Oh nevermind Progo had a spiritual vote

They're town

Norwegian voting Kitty and not switching off of them for the longest time makes me think they aren't partnered.

Fwog is there any way I can assist you in this moment?

[Frogsterking]

Also Frog's been scumreading/pushing me for the majority of today

we're not partners

Yes and your reaction to my push D1 is difficult to fake.

[Frogsterking]

Okay can you walk me through your town read of Progo?

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

This wasn't his initial reaction though. Go read his initial reaction and how it developed to this and the scum agenda becomes clear. The wagon reads as savable to me and scum do not want to lose 1 here, he has to try and save it. Maybe you advised him in the scum thread? Then in this defense it's not just "mistakes", it's unbelievable mistakes. 3 votes instead of 5 isn't believable to me. In the astronomically rare chance he did make a mistake I apologise but claiming he thought it was 5 votes seems like a cover to change a stance on something he posted.

I used to push players a lot for things like this so I understand where you're coming from. It will cost you games until you change though.

[Frogsterking]

Pushing isn't the right tactic here ofmercia because the information it's generating isn't increasing your ability to solve the game and fwog and I are being compliant.

Instead of attaching your ego to the fwog/Frog solve, assume the fwog/Frog solve is 95% correct and formulate questions based on the 5% that bothers you.

[Frogsterking]

Reading 845 in a moment.

[Frogsterking]

Okay thank you ofmercia:

1)"...reads that only sort of make sense from your POV..."

My solve makes sense internally from my point of view. I believe Progo is newbscum who was able to succeed D1 because of his humility. I believe he's struggling to appear Townie now unlike D1 because he's realized he is talented.

I also believe based on past results that my intuition works on a VT/non VT basis. so I continue to trust my intuition as a key player for my gamesolve because it's actually been doing it's job this game (albeit in the quirkiest way possible.) This is also why I'm confident in my ability to hit pr as scum.

Regardless of its extrinsic validity my current solve is internally on solid ground.

2) "rapid insanity votes...first 3 weeks of game?"

Yes I wasn't smooth and I made multiple things more difficult, I'm sorry for my weakness as a player this way

3) "So isn't your ego in the way and not mine?"

Most likely it's the combination of both our egos here creating obstacles. I believe your ego is making you resistant to challenging the fwog solve which is dangerous because there is a diffusion of responsibility and complacency surrounding this fwog wagon and it's bad Townplay to limp along with it. I don't recognize what my own ego is up to at the moment and I'm sure my ego is on the verge of ruining something too.

[Frogsterking]

I'm doubtful on the Strange tunneling but the Progo push makes even less sense to me. Progo has been so transparently town to me all game.

Yes I believe you are the mark for scum. And I understand why you townread Progo.

Why

do you townread Strange??

[Frogsterking]

I'm thinking about 845 and ofmercia's stance on fwog. I'll most likely sleep on it and post when I have something.

I believe Kitty's townread of Strange is either a idiosyncratic phenomenon or a TMI tell. I agree it looks just like a TMI tell and it's possible I'm mistaking the forest for the trees. I'm expecting there is some townie explanation for the read.

[Frogsterking]

I was kind of solvey last night so now it's your turn Norwee

[Frogsterking]

Okay are we at a point yet where we can just town read fwog?

[Frogsterking]

Okay. I read Kitty as nonVT.

[Frogsterking]

Personally thought Norwegian was going to die there, but I guess scum thought Tist was a bigger threat.

I'm gonna look into his reads

That's what I thought too. Out of the experienced players (SEs and KittyTacky), Nowee is the least suspected.

I thought this might be Progo buttering up Kitty.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Progo

Hell if this Strange wagon won't move maybe this will

[Frogsterking]

Yeah

[Frogsterking]

102 and 216 I think did a lot of good for Progo's table image.

[Frogsterking]

Now I guess fwog can cross vote Progo and we give Strange the hanmer lol.

[Frogsterking]

I think flipping Progo wins for Town.

[Frogsterking]

Okay, why can't I be a townie who misreads you Progo?

[Frogsterking]

Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.

Hm, no.

Here is the problem I have with some of your reads. First off you never answered my question when I asked how I, specifically, was scummier than Kitty. Along the way you continue to talk about the two of us in a couple of short posts that don't say anything. You've linked a couple posts describing that they had more content than the "positions" we've taken. Why is this? And then right after that you say "I don't like how Fwog/Kitty put just enough effort to get townread and are posed with their outted scumreads on town limbait". There is so much wrong with this statement. Number one, of course you put in effort, that's usually how a lot of people get townread day 1. Look at Tist with his wordy posts, look at Norwegian with the amount of posts they've made. Then you look at someone like yourself/Auto/StrangeMatter who haven't made a whole lot of posts/put a whole lot of words in them. The top posters managed to get themselves out of mostly consensus PoE for today (because I know some people don't like Tist, which is fine). Specifically the "outted scumread" part is pinging me because you're discouraging me from making a scumread on someone who you think is town. I'm allowed to have my own opinions about people in the game, and in this case, I think Auto is scum. I'll get to that in a minute

Second off, your limbait reads aren't good reads. Your explanation for Auto being town is because he "doesn't post much" and is "paranoid of a popular town read". The second reason for that is fine, but the first one isn't. How does it make sense for someone like Auto to be town in your eyes because he doesn't post much, while someone like me is, in your words "50% to flip scum", with a decent amount of posts? I get that I don't put words in my posts but that's just how I play. I'm not a wordy type of guy unless I absolutely need to be.

Third off is the post where you say "You have a 50% chance to flip scum, which is great expected value for town" itself. If you're really relying on self calculated RNG more than your own intuition and logic thinking then you need to change your game up a bit because that's not how mafia works. You and Tist can calculate all the probabilities you want but at the end of the day, the game is about deception, not probability. In that same post you say "I scumread a lot of your reactions to be willing to double down on you" Ok, what reactions pinged you? Which ones were scummier than others?

I'm not sure what makes you think this whole section of D1 is faked. I think Frog+fwog is tinfoil.

[Frogsterking]

216 and 695 the reasoning for your townread on Kitty is garbage. They both can be summarized as "Kitty would do [post x] as mafia or as town. I have decided Kitty is town."

If you can't rule out Kitty as scum then you can't claim to scum read me by PoE.

[Frogsterking]

In 216 you claim 75

clears

Kitty..

[Frogsterking]

I'm trying to imagine a world where 75

clears

Kitty. It's even more difficult to imagine than Kitty hard-townreading Strange.

[Frogsterking]

Progo, in 695 you say you townread Kitty for the same reasons you explained earlier and in 216 you say Kitty defending you was late which is scummy

however

Kitty is "CLEAR" because of 75. Ever since 216 you have written and behaved as though Kitty is clear because of 75.

[Frogsterking]

I had completely forgotten about that whole thing in Day 1. You're right, Frog + fwog is unthinkable.

Yes and no scumteam I'm a part of is ever going to kill TistDaniel N1.

[Frogsterking]

Process of elimination. I believe both scum is in [Frog, fwog, Strange]. The only other possibility is that fwog is reverse bussing Strange.

Frog is town, it's fwog/strange/kitty

I think he knows dude, he doesn't care. He unironically has townread Kitty all game for 75. Like by saying he's using PoE he's saying he's sure of Frog+fwog because of 75 which indicates Progo has an agenda.

[Frogsterking]

I'm trying to imagine a world where 75

clears

Kitty. It's even more difficult to imagine than Kitty hard-townreading Strange.

The problem is 75 is not clearing kitty from scum, but clearing an accusation instead.

Look at it like this. In 216, progo says kitty's defense on his intend/pretend slip comes in at post 86 (which is late and already been dissolved) so

look like it could be scum waiting

.

Then progo shows 75 which

clears kitty from the underlined above accusation.

Process of elimination. I believe both scum is in [Frog, fwog, Strange]. The only other possibility is that fwog is reverse bussing Strange.

Frog is town, it's fwog/strange/kitty

I think he knows dude, he doesn't care. He unironically has townread Kitty all game for 75. Like by saying he's using PoE he's saying he's sure of Frog+fwog because of 75 which indicates Progo has an agenda.

Fwog IS red here. Your strong defense of him is making it look like you're the partner so I get where he's coming from. But to me I can see you vs progo being TvT.

I understand, so

why

is Progo certain that Kitty is town if their only stated reasons are NAI?

[Frogsterking]

There is circular logic between 216, 695 and what Progo says in the present. Progo says they have used process of elimination so I look back to see how they eliminated Kitty and find 695 which refers to 216 where the closest thing to a towntell is 75.

[Frogsterking]

Ninja'd

[Frogsterking]

Nogo, Progo

75 is the only post you've awarded Kitty townpoints of any sort in your iso. 695 refers to 216 which refers to 75. It's all circular logic because now Kitty is ruled out due to PoE.

[Frogsterking]

Progo if you're town you need to do a better job explaining your read on Kitty because if it's a genuine read you didn't make it look like one.

[Frogsterking]

So I know the deadline is coming up very soon. We definitely need a compromise somewhere.

I'm very much at the point where I despise ending days early

(see my past two Mini games, I got hammered early, Dwlee got hammered early and screwed us over both times).

Then I'll give you the chance to end things late.

UNVOTE: StrangeMatter
VOTE: fwogcarf,

he's now in E-1!

Did I call this, or did I not call this?

[Frogsterking]

There are partner tells on this page of Progo + Strange. Progo has a poor read progression on Strange and claims to be willing to push Strange while not directing much shade heavily in that direction. Then, on this page Progo asks strange a question (a very easy question) and Strange completely ignores Progo.

Progo claims to be willing to execute Strange but I think there's a reasonable chance Progo is lying and the solve is actually Progo + Strange.

I say we call Progo on his bluff and flip the vote onto Strange. I think if Progo tries to resist a Strange wagon now that he's claimed he's willing to change the execution then Progo is caught lying about Strange and I FoS both of them for the team.

So I know the deadline is coming up very soon. We definitely need a compromise somewhere.

I'm very much at the point where I despise ending days early

(see my past two Mini games, I got hammered early, Dwlee got hammered early and screwed us over both times).

Then I'll give you the chance to end things late.

UNVOTE: StrangeMatter
VOTE: fwogcarf,

he's now in E-1!

Did I call this, or did I not call this?

Hey it looks like I called it

[Frogsterking]

So I know the deadline is coming up very soon. We definitely need a compromise somewhere.

I'm very much at the point where I despise ending days early (see my past two Mini games, I got hammered early, Dwlee got hammered early and screwed us over both times).

Completely off topic, but can I suggest that you just use bold to point out what you see instead of coloring posts?

Strange just hammer fwog and kill me tonight and counter claim the last PR on D3 it's your best play. No one is townreading you for slowrolling.

[Frogsterking]

Progo and Strange aren't going to lim each other my ego can't compute it.

[Frogsterking]

fwog will increase their win rate in most cases by changing their vote to Progo (regardless of alignment.)

[Frogsterking]

That's an excellent unvote from ofmercia.

[Frogsterking]

That's an excellent unvote from ofmercia.

Now town wins. Strange gambited the hammer on fwog for the chance of getting townread for it.

I think scum!Strange plays for tricks because scum!Strange never learned the trade (probably because their nice.)

Progo and Strange are in the scum PT figuring out a plan.

[Frogsterking]

He's outside of his scum range and I intuit him to be VT.

[Frogsterking]

I completed one other game with Norwee and it was scum!Norwee. His play there resembled Strange's play in this game. I've been stunned by Norwee's play in this game because scum!Norwee didn't appear to be a remotely capable town player.

[Frogsterking]

I honestly don't care as long it's Strange or fwog.

UNVOTE: fwogcarf
VOTE: StrangeMatter

Where is Strange?

[Frogsterking]

I completed one other game with Norwee and it was scum!Norwee. His play there resembled Strange's play in this game. I've been stunned by Norwee's play in this game because scum!Norwee didn't appear to be a remotely capable town player.

Ummm... rude!

Scum!Norwee kicked my butt in the completed game by the way, I'm not saying they are actually bad at the game, I'm saying they skillfully appeared really townie and really bad which disguised their scummy actions.

If Norwee is scum in this game they are playing a completely different style which I think is definitely possible but not likely.

[Frogsterking]

Did you expect me to be an generic bad town player from that game when my goal was to literally kill the town. >:(

Yes and with an above average scum winrate from imitating your town meta of killing town. I thought I was going to have to carry this game.

[Frogsterking]

Should I hammer Strange before I fall asleep?

[Frogsterking]

My ego will be crushed if Strange/Progo is not the correct solve

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Progo

massclaim I'm VT

[Frogsterking]

I say Progo and Kitty claim first then Norwee and fwog

[Frogsterking]

[Frogsterking]

kinda surprised frogster didn't die there but i guess keeping frogster alive means framing me

Possibly. I thought ofmercia reacted to me like they were really a TPR. I would've killed them last night if I were scum.

I say Progo and Kitty claim first then Norwee and fwog

i already claimed vanilla town

Oh yeah I forgot

[Frogsterking]

That was a good play on ofmercia's part to draw the night kill, it probably won us the game.

[Frogsterking]

That was a good play on ofmercia's part to draw the night kill, it probably won us the game.

And Daniel for that matter.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: fwog

[Frogsterking]

First, I would like to thank Frogsterking. At the beginning of Day 2, I was still one of the least RS players of the game. The chances of I getting night killed there were pretty high, so I was actually getting nervous.

Fortunately, our little... Uhh...

Discussion

at the end of Day 2 fixed that. There was absolutely no way I was getting night killed after that. So I got relieved.

It worked, I'm still here!

Hurray! I also think you did a great job not implying to be PR D2 and ofmercia did a great job implying to be TPR. I think town made it as confusing as possible for scum to kill correctly during the night without outting any real information or fake claiming.

[Frogsterking]

ofmercia has been killed Night 2. They were a

Vanilla Townie

.

It is now Day 3. The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2022-03-19 00:29:41).

Lmao what?
They hard told as VT here.
I would literally never shoot this slot if i was PR hunting.

Huh? I thought they were implying to be TPR.

[Frogsterking]

Hmm

[Frogsterking]

I think you played well D2 fwog.

How did you feel when I pushed you D1 fwog?

[Frogsterking]

I want to point out some things I noticed from Strange other than the main tell that they were hedgey with their reads and they didn't seem interested in scumhunting.

I felt like Strange did that EBWOP thing SO MANY TIMES they were going for a wifom play to get townread for it.
"Like if they were really self-conscious scum after a while they would pay more attention to what they're writing the first time around, so they must be town right?"
I also thought they claimed to scumread Kitty at the end of D1 to get townread for it because it's anti-survivalistic to want your most vocal supporter killed.

Those are two "strange" things I remember thinking about.

[Frogsterking]

Good game, everyone! Really glad I got eliminated when I did. I would not have been much help for town, and I spent the last week or so traveling, so I wouldn't have been as active as usual either. But yeah, you guys handled just fine without me.

Have you had a chance yet to look at your research on the five factor model?

[Frogsterking]

That's awesome! Thank you.