Newbie 2089 | Endgame
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fake frog never rescindingIn post 7, Frogsterking wrote:
Cool we have an armada of SEs this game.In post 6, KittyTacky wrote:My first first post!
Hello everyone. I now realize I should have inned as a SE because I have a few games under my belt already...
VOTE: yolohammer doesnt sound like a newbie name.
I have a supplemental D1 start method called the SSS (standard survey start). I think it might be better after the RVS is over rather than right at the start of the game. I'll probably post it around 10-12 pages in.
VOTE: Frogsterking- fwogcarf
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i find setup discussion naiIn post 41, TistDaniel wrote:Welcome to the game, fwogcarf. Any thoughts on the discussion so far?- fwogcarf
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I get that but that's not how I'm going to go about my readsIn post 49, TistDaniel wrote:But this is a newbie game, and it would benefit new town to know how to play.
Is it alignment indicative to not want to benefit new town?- fwogcarf
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That was absolutely not my intention. I was stating my views on the discussion about it but I specifically stated that you could go on talking about it, and that I specifically wasn't going to delve on it any further.In post 56, TistDaniel wrote:VOTE: fwogcarf
Of course you're welcome not to join in on this particular discussion, but that reasoning for *why* not to join in doesn't sit well with me. On average, town power knows *more* about our setup than scum does. The only way I see this conversation possibly benefiting scum is if someone claims a role or is exclusively interested in discussing a single role, which we haven't seen.
This looks to me like a player (who hasn't contributed anything to discussion so far) activity discouraging other people from learning how to play town roles better. This does not sit well with me.
However I did forget that people who rolled Town Power would know that kind of information as well so that blunder is on me.- fwogcarf
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yeah it's been a while LOLIn post 71, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Ah Fwogcarf you were in Large Normal 228. I could swear i remembered you.- fwogcarf
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In post 72, Frogsterking wrote:I'm still procrastinating on posting the SSS.
NahIn post 68, ProgoWoshua wrote:
I meant "intend". Sorry.In post 67, Dunnstral wrote:
You mean this? I'm not sure why they said pretend, I assume they are joking.In post 62, ProgoWoshua wrote:
I'm a little busy right now. But I pretend to respond to Daniel's strategy soon.In post 61, NorwegianboyEE wrote:ProgoWoshua you gonna come in?
Don’t be shy! Come and say hi!
I’ve got tea and crackers setting up on the fly.
Wow this is a really, really unfortunate slip if you're town. This looks like a consciousness of guilt slip.
VOTE: ProgoWoshua
TistDaniel seems obvtown and I'm just going to leave it at that.- fwogcarf
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the "slip"
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not everything is a scumslip lolIn post 115, ofmercia wrote:How can you just assume it was a language error? That seems a bit tmi.- fwogcarf
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preachIn post 132, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I have solved some games on day 1. Sometimes it’s not that easy, but to say: "Meh day 1 pointless so nobody should care what we say" is blatantly anti-town.- fwogcarf
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Yeah I can agree with thatIn post 141, ofmercia wrote:
Lol still, there's a difference in making assumptions and guesses to flat out knowing not only it was an error but the exact nature and cause of the error.In post 138, fwogcarf wrote:
not everything is a scumslip lolIn post 115, ofmercia wrote:How can you just assume it was a language error? That seems a bit tmi.- fwogcarf
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who are you talking to?In post 142, Dunnstral wrote:Who?
If you mean NorwegianboyEE's 135, I'm fairly certain that the game is completed. We can't talk about ongoing games on this site either.- fwogcarf
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I think cops and mason are equally damaging threats to mafia. Masons claiming together would mean two confirmed town, and I highly doubt scum would pull a move like that.
Cop can't confirm themself as easily, but they can nail a scum. I would not expect Cop to live to the next day if that ended up happening unless it's exactly Town Cop and Town Doctor.
Masons are harder to kill than Cops because there's more of them.- fwogcarf
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Who said you were the most townread player?In post 167, TistDaniel wrote:I'll admit, I could be wrong. Part of where I was coming from originally was that I assumed that mafia would have more reasons behind the nightkill than just the power role. Let's say AutoDefenestrator claimed mason right now. He's saying he has no power to scan or block the nightkill. But we also know that it's his first game on the site, and several players are leaning on him for lurking too much. It seemed to me that mafia would be more likely to kill me, because I'm the most town-read player, I'm talking a lot, and maybe I got lucky with some of my reads. Meanwhile, a wagon might still form on AutoDefenestrator even if they do absolutely nothing about it.
Like I've said, I haven't played any games here before. Maybe mafia always kills power over someone troublesome in other ways. I've been assuming I'm probably going to be tonight's nightkill though.
I honestly don't like how you're already saying that you'll be the kill.- fwogcarf
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Norweigan townIn post 176, TistDaniel wrote:I'm just going by what reads I've seen so far. I don't think I've seen your reads. Feel like posting them?
And before you ask why there's only one read, it's because I don't have much to go off of. I know you have a lot of posts and you put effort and words into them, but that doesn't make me entirely convinced that you're town quite yet. I'm feeling you're trying to put more words in so that you can get volume cleared.
However I don't think I have enough evidence to go on a full blown case because I do agree with your points at the beginning of the game about strategizing. I don't necessarily agree with what you're presenting now. No sensible PR would claim D1 (unless I'm misunderstanding) under most situations unless they were about to get chopped. That's when I would picture a PR claim by either the PR or scum wanting to stay alive. I don't see vanilla townies sensibly claiming PR.- fwogcarf
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What would I question them with? About people's reads? Most of the players don't have over 15 posts yet in this game.In post 178, TistDaniel wrote:If you don't have enough to go on for reads at the moment, have you considered questioning people? Maybe you can catch someone in a contradiction.
I really doubt that we could catch someone THIS early in the game. We're not supposed to be able to solve the game instantly.- fwogcarf
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I like their reactions to the "slip" along with their engagement with ofmercia. I think their solving style is townie and I really like how they went through with their ofmercia vote. I also think that their prodding of frogo is townie because it's someone trying to get discussion started up.In post 181, Frogsterking wrote:
Yes we can do it.In post 180, fwogcarf wrote:
What did you like about Norwee?- fwogcarf
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probably tist for most consistentIn post 183, Frogsterking wrote:
Okay, do you remember how to read a players iso?In post 182, fwogcarf wrote:
I like their reactions to the "slip" along with their engagement with ofmercia. I think their solving style is townie and I really like how they went through with their ofmercia vote. I also think that their prodding of frogo is townie because it's someone trying to get discussion started up.In post 181, Frogsterking wrote:
Yes we can do it.In post 180, fwogcarf wrote:
What did you like about Norwee?
Can you find a player's iso in this game who seems to have the most consistent train of thought from post to post, and player who seems to have the least consistent train of thought from post to post?
not enough info for me for the latter- fwogcarf
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whatIn post 209, AutoDefenestrator wrote:
Sounds like something unwise to share.In post 206, TistDaniel wrote:Dunnstral: what's your strategy for finding scum?- fwogcarf
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how does that make sense?In post 225, ofmercia wrote:
I think he's lurking as town waiting for something.In post 221, fwogcarf wrote:VOTE: Dunnstral activity read
also seems like volume tells will not work in this game
thank god honestly- fwogcarf
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Why Dunnstral and I specifically? Did you just pick two random players off the top of your head?In post 267, AutoDefenestrator wrote:Checking in. I personally don't have anyone read as scum as TistDaniel, in spite of the "I'm the only one talking so I'm the only one giving out reads in the first place" point. I may switch later onto someone like fwog or Dunnstral though.
I'd also like to hear about the survey thing and get done with D1 sooner than later.
I'll post some reads in a moment I need to reread some of the game- fwogcarf
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i dont have an alignment read on tistdaniel but he doesnt feel partnered to anyone at the moment.
norwegian is still town
dunnstral and frogsterking are both inactive. i would scumread them for it but activity reads arent too reliable. frogsterking's vote and unvote on progo probably means that they arent mafia together (not too sure)
i think progo and ofmercia arent mafia together. ofmercia is probably not partnered with norwegian either
i don't have a read on kitty
i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases. i feel like he hasn't done anything this game- fwogcarf
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not necessarilyIn post 275, ofmercia wrote:Oh, I haven't read any of it, because it's pretty obvious the game is mostly rng especially day 1. So there's probably no reliable guide to catching scum. Especially with all the varying behaviors each game from both alignments.
you can definitely find someone to have been indicating your interpretation of scummy behavior and calling them out for it. If you think that they're scum, then go for it.- fwogcarf
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Okay....In post 277, AutoDefenestrator wrote:I think it's going to be my first and last game of this type, might do some blitz role-madness if anythin'. I won't sheep nor die midgame here though.
I'll be sure to artificially boost my visual contribution to town by hunting breadcrumbs and making up vacuous rationalizations for gutreads from now on (Daniel, 2022), sir. Scum are only more likely to influence my vote towards town, so I'm going off my personal thoughts as should you.In post 269, fwogcarf wrote:i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases. i feel like he hasn't done anything this game
[...]
Why Dunnstral and I specifically? Did you just pick two random players off the top of your head?
You have any more reads up to this point?- fwogcarf
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their recent interactionsIn post 302, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
Based on what?In post 297, fwogcarf wrote:ofmercia/kitty not w/w
i dont think a wolf votes their partner based on the conversation that took place afterwards- fwogcarf
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This is a read that's supported from other games that are not on this site, and I tried to make this play when I rolled scum in one game, didn't work out.In post 312, StrangeMatter wrote:
I'm not sure I'm following this bolded part here. Exactly what about that is scum indicative that translates over multiple games?In post 269, fwogcarf wrote:i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases.i feel like he hasn't done anything this game- fwogcarf
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This post is what solidified that read for meIn post 289, ofmercia wrote:
What? We were discussing something totally different. This is a big stretch lol. The two aren't even related at all. This has to be scum.In post 288, KittyTacky wrote:
This is still scum. Not much ofmercia said or did makes much sense as town. Jumped on someone for what is blatantly a language mistake, when people started piling up votes, attempts to deflect with "the game is RNG".In post 286, ofmercia wrote:
Actually proving me right. So keep going.In post 285, KittyTacky wrote:
lmao. It's not quite RNG because scum tend to be scummy. Like you for example.In post 275, ofmercia wrote:Oh, I haven't read any of it, because it's pretty obvious the game is mostly rng especially day 1. So there's probably no reliable guide to catching scum. Especially with all the varying behaviors each game from both alignments.
VOTE: kittytacky- fwogcarf
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Just because they're "easy slots to push" doesn't make them town.In post 340, Frogsterking wrote:I apologize for my lurking. I think I've kept fairly well read on this game.
I think frognworth and KittyTacky are likely to flip scum. VOTE: frognworth I'm down to wagon either.
I think Dunnstral/StrangeMatters and AutoDefennstrel are the limbait slots who are are likely to be easy pushes who flip town.
I think Progo put enough effort into their posts that it's sort of making his life difficult as scum so I think he's town. I think Norwee's vote on me and paranoia of my slot is likely to come from town and some of his posts were too helpful I think for if he were playing scum. And I also am not paranoid of Tist who I think is town.
Then I think ofmercia's play is slightly more aggressive than the other players at this table which can sometimes lead to getting his slot scum read, and in my experience, kind of like the limbait slots, he's likely to flip town.
So then I just have frognworth and KittyTacky left and I read through their isos and I see hanging back, pushing easy slots while staying on the sidelanes, posting just enough to get slightly townread. I'm somewhat confident there's at least 1 scum between KittyTacky and frognworth.
How am I scummier than Kitty if you're using the same reasoning for both of us?- fwogcarf
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what does this even meanIn post 363, Frogsterking wrote:I really dislike how fwog and Kitty feel like they put just enough effort in to get slightly town read, and how they're both presently posed with their outted scum reads to sheep whichever limbait town goes for EoD.- fwogcarf
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Hm, no.In post 375, Frogsterking wrote:Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.
Here is the problem I have with some of your reads. First off you never answered my question when I asked how I, specifically, was scummier than Kitty. Along the way you continue to talk about the two of us in a couple of short posts that don't say anything. You've linked a couple posts describing that they had more content than the "positions" we've taken. Why is this? And then right after that you say "I don't like how Fwog/Kitty put just enough effort to get townread and are posed with their outted scumreads on town limbait". There is so much wrong with this statement. Number one, of course you put in effort, that's usually how a lot of people get townread day 1. Look at Tist with his wordy posts, look at Norwegian with the amount of posts they've made. Then you look at someone like yourself/Auto/StrangeMatter who haven't made a whole lot of posts/put a whole lot of words in them. The top posters managed to get themselves out of mostly consensus PoE for today (because I know some people don't like Tist, which is fine). Specifically the "outted scumread" part is pinging me because you're discouraging me from making a scumread on someone who you think is town. I'm allowed to have my own opinions about people in the game, and in this case, I think Auto is scum. I'll get to that in a minute
Second off, your limbait reads aren't good reads. Your explanation for Auto being town is because he "doesn't post much" and is "paranoid of a popular town read". The second reason for that is fine, but the first one isn't. How does it make sense for someone like Auto to be town in your eyes because he doesn't post much, while someone like me is, in your words "50% to flip scum", with a decent amount of posts? I get that I don't put words in my posts but that's just how I play. I'm not a wordy type of guy unless I absolutely need to be.
Third off is the post where you say "You have a 50% chance to flip scum, which is great expected value for town" itself. If you're really relying on self calculated RNG more than your own intuition and logic thinking then you need to change your game up a bit because that's not how mafia works. You and Tist can calculate all the probabilities you want but at the end of the day, the game is about deception, not probability. In that same post you say "I scumread a lot of your reactions to be willing to double down on you" Ok, what reactions pinged you? Which ones were scummier than others?- fwogcarf
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Would also like to know why I'm suddenly a scumread for you when there's no other mention of it in your ISOIn post 354, AutoDefenestrator wrote:
Dunnstral/StrangeMatter is definitely off the radar for now, seems as if everyone agrees with thatIn post 267, AutoDefenestrator wrote:I may switch later onto someone like fwog or Dunnstral though.so far. Still neutral on Norwegian (a 'town-controlling and analyzing' attitude is easy to pull off as a SE town and might work on newer players). Frogster remains a townlean in spite of the recent inactivity.
Hence I'd still like to vote off Daniel or Fwog, preference on former.- fwogcarf
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Why so?In post 381, Frogsterking wrote:@fwog 379
I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.
I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me- fwogcarf
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I still think Auto's 123 is scummy. While I do see some truth in the first part of the post I don't think it's a definitive reason to not be able to make reads. Sure you can't make them immediately and that's fine but he outright states that he can't make "a real read" or fish for reactions. I don't get why he needed to say this last part.
He's consistently gone after Tist today, which starts in 195. Normally this wouldn't be a problem but it's HOW he's going about this is the problem I have with him.
Most of if not all of his recent posts are about Tist, whether it's responding to Tist's posts or talking about how scummy he is. He did call Norwegian and Frogster town in an earlier post and then only has reads on those two players in a later post along with Tist and I, which is weird in itself. His next post after that vote is 267 where again he calls Tist scum and doesn't form a read on anybody else. "I might switch to someone like fwog or Dunnstral though" is said without further explanation, and suddenly takes the Dunnstral/StrangeMatter slot off the list because "everyone agrees with that so far" (354). This post introduces him throwing me into the PoE for some reason, which I find strange because he's never explained why he scumread my slot. (And somehow Frogster is now his only townread)
His 209 looks really bad for StrangeMatter if Auto flips scum. Auto seems to not want to have them respond to Tist about a scumhunting strategy, which I find more suspicious than if that slot had discussed their strategy at all.- fwogcarf
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any reasoning for them?In post 384, NorwegianboyEE wrote:My townreads are Daniel, Mercia and tbh i think Strangematter has been pretty townie as well.- fwogcarf
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Because you're not providing any reasoning for it.In post 385, Frogsterking wrote:
I think asking why over and over again is one kind of scummy reaction to being voted.In post 382, fwogcarf wrote:
Why so?In post 381, Frogsterking wrote:@fwog 379
I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.
I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me- fwogcarf
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You're still not pointing out what reactions I had that you thought were scummyIn post 392, Frogsterking wrote:Fair enough: @379
I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.
Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.
You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky. - fwogcarf
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