Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[ProgoWoshua]

@TistDaniel, you know that you can still read previous games while in this one, right? There's no rule against it, and it's common practice.

[ProgoWoshua]

Uhh... Hi! I'm here too...

[ProgoWoshua]

Is it alignment indicative to not want to benefit new town?

Maybe. But that's not the point.

I'll be honest, RVS feels stupid to me. Part of my reason for wanting to discuss how to correctly play power roles is that I see it as an alternative to RVS. Y'all can just as easily vote someone for giving bad advice as for having a stupid name.

Honestly, I agree.

[ProgoWoshua]

ProgoWoshua you gonna come in?
Don’t be shy! Come and say hi!
I’ve got tea and crackers setting up on the fly.

I'm a little busy right now. But I pretend to respond to Daniel's strategy soon.

[ProgoWoshua]

ProgoWoshua you gonna come in?
Don’t be shy! Come and say hi!
I’ve got tea and crackers setting up on the fly.

I'm a little busy right now. But I pretend to respond to Daniel's strategy soon.

You mean this? I'm not sure why they said pretend, I assume they are joking.

I meant "intend". Sorry.

[ProgoWoshua]

What on earth is an conciousness of guilt slip and why would that ever happen.

Portuguese word for "Intends" = "Pretende".

[ProgoWoshua]

This is far from being the only false cognate between Portuguese and English, but it's the only one I have a problem with. For some reason, main brain has fixated on it and I'll misuse it if I'm not careful.

Yes, it is annoying.

This is the third time I've made this mistake in this site alone,

and this is only my second game!

[ProgoWoshua]

Progo what’s ur thoughts on game so far.

The majority of it was just RVS, and the part that wasn't was caused by me, so I don't have much to say.

[ProgoWoshua]

When I made the same mistake last game, only one person made a big deal out of it, and she was town. So I'm not read to suspect Frogsterking and ofmercia just yet.

[ProgoWoshua]

I say I'll be busy and not as active, and still end up being the most active player. ProgoWoshua, we last heard from you in post 102. It's now post 201. Where are you? Why so lurky? What are your reads?

I've been busy with real life the last two days, but I'll be reading everything so far and give my thoughts later today.

But for now, I don't really think ofmercia is Mafia.

[ProgoWoshua]

Here's the game summary that I created to help me with my reads:

#1-#61 was mostly RVS ans setup discussion (which I view as NAI), except for:

• #18 - NorwegianboyEE's Town-"Newbiereads" TistDaniel, for being a newbie asking about PR play.
  #56 - TistDaniel's votes fwogcarf, for... "discouraging other people from learning how to play town roles better"?

#62 was my "slip". #62-#87 was mostly people reacting to it.

• #66 - ofmercia asks Dunnstral's opinion on it.
  #67 - Dunnstral assumes it was a joke.
  #72 - Frogsterking's votes me over it. Frogsterking's obvtown-reads TistDaniel.
  #73 - NorwegianboyEE questions Frogsterking on "consciousness of guilt slip".
  #75 - KittyTacky questions Frogsterking on "consciousness of guilt slip".
  #79 - fwogcarf, quoting #72, dismisses the idea.
  #83 - NorwegianboyEE finds it NAI.
  #86 - KittyTacky doesn't think it's a slip.
  #87 - ofmercia scumreads me because of it, and scumreads NorwegianboyEE for defending me.

#88 is where I explain my mistake, and everyone believes it. Now, everyone is discusing everyone else's previous reaction to the "slip".

• #90 - In response to ofmercia, NorwegianboyEE defends how my mistake didn't make sense as a slip.
  #93 #94 #96 - NorwegianboyEE votes ofmercia, claiming their reason for suspect both of us doesn't make sense. ofmercia explains their reasoning, and NorwegianboyEE unvotes.
  #99 - KittyTacky suspects Frogsterking and ofmercia for possibly jumping on an early wagon, also claiming their reasoning doesn't make sense.
  #102 - I don't scumread Frogsterking and ofmercia based on their reactions to the "slip".
  #103 - ofmercia insists that their previous reaction makes sense.
  #104 - Frogsterking unvotes me.
  #106 - NorwegianboyEE don't think Frogsterking and ofmercia are partners, due to their very different reactions.
  #108 - Frogsterking thinks I'm town based on #102.
  #116 - TistDaniel votes ofmercia, for trying to incide a wagon without actually voting for me.
  #137 - Dunnstral townreads TistDaniel.
  #148 - TistDaniel's wall of text. Most of it is about people responding to his strategy. There's a paragraph about ofmercia's post-"slip" reactions. Townleans NorwegianboyEE and scumleans fwogcarf for their responses to his strategy. Scumleans on ofmercia a little harder for pushing a wagon on me without talking to me at all.
  #158 - ofmercia defends their reasoning for geting imput from Dunnstral before pushing a wagon on me. But doesn't scumread TistDaniel for acusing them.
  #170 - NorwegianboyEE votes Frogsterking for being oportunistic about my slip.
  #173 - ofmercia claims that they've believe that scum had sliped, but was hoping that wasn't the case.
  #174 - NorwegianboyEE townreads ofmercia based on #173.
  #177 - Prompted by TistDaniel, fwogcarf states his townreading of NorwegianboyEE.
  #179 - Frogsterking townreads me and TistDaniel. Has a null read on ofmercia.
  #184 - Frogsterking votes KittyTacky after reading his ISO. Scumreads Dunnstral by PoE.
  #185 - KittyTacky townreads TistDaniel and NorwegianboyEE.
  #190 - Prompted by Frogsterking, KittyTacky states a slight townlean on AutoDefenestrator and a null read on Dunnstral.
  #195 - AutoDefenestrator is neutral on TistDaniel and NorwegianboyEE, and townleans Frogsterking.
  #198 - ofmercia changes their read on TistDaniel to scum, and votes for him, based on #148.

My thoughts about everyone:

AutoDefenestrator: It's the least active player overall. He only has one post that I deem relevant for scumhunting porpuses (#195), where he claims to be neutral on TistDaniel and NorwegianboyEE, and townleans Frogsterking. It's also worth noting that he's still keeping his vote on NorwegianboyEE since the RVS. I'm inclined to say I scumlean him, but it's also possible that he's just a newbie learning to play the game, so I'll grant him a null read.

Dunnstral: Once I made my "slip", It's possible for Mafia to not push a wagon immediatly, and instead wait to see if the Town would push a wagon first. However, ofmercia asked Dunnstral about his opnion on my "slip", and he responded that he didn't think it was a slip. I think that, if he is mafia, he would express suspicion or doubt once asked, to leave the door open and push a wagon later. He didn't do that, so I think he is town.

Frogsterking: I doubt Frogsterking and ofmercia are partners. Not only because of their reactions after #88, but also because having both scum to push the same mislim on Day 1 is really risky, and I don't think they would do that. I believe ofmercia is scummier than Frogsterking, so Frogsterking gets a townlean by default.

fwogcarf: He's been one of the most active players, but he posted mostly about things I deem irrelevant for scumhunting porpuses (mostly discusing TistDaniel's strategy). He only has two relevant posts: #177, where he townreads NorwegianboyEE, and #79, which is the important one in my opnion. Again, it's possible for Mafia to not immediatly push a wagon on me after my "slip", but fwogcarf went out of his way to disagree about it being a slip completely umprompted. In my opnion, he's townier than Dunnstral.

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

NorwegianboyEE: I think he's town for the exact same reason as KittyTacky. At first, he question Frogsterking's reasoning, and then states that he doesn't think I sliped. I can't find a problem with his reasons for his reads, so I think he's town.

ofmercia: In my opnion #66, #67, #72 and #87 tell a story. At first, ofmercia tries to get Dunnstral to push a wagon on me. Dunnstral doesn't do that, but Frogsterking does. Seeing the opportunity, tries to give the wagon momentum without actually geting on the wagon themselves. This looks pretty scummy to me.

TistDaniel: Before I talk about him, I want to ask him something:

A lot of people have been saying that discussing town strategy is not alignment indicative, but I'm also the most town-read player (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) when most of what I've done in this game is discuss town strategy.

Is (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) supposed to be a list of posts where people townread you?

(18, 72, 137) sure, but NorwegianboyEE's #59 and #60 have nothing to do with you, and #128 is from the actual mod. Explain to me how you got that wrong.

[ProgoWoshua]

Progo reads Dunnstral as town for not being the first to openly scumread Progo for the "slip". I disagree. You can hardly tell what ofmercia is talking about unless you're paying very close attention or you reread. If Dunnstral came out against Progo at this point, it would look like he was the first to have a problem with Progo, and I don't think scum would want to be the first on a wagon. Sure, saying that it wasn't scummy makes it harder for Dunnstral to jump on that wagon later, but if it ended up being a real thing, he could just stay off it the entire day and get easy townreads after Progo's slip.

Yeah, I understand. It wouldn't be wise from Mafia to suspect me right there. I still give him a townlean, but I'm less confident in it than before.

My biggest scumlean is still on ofmercia, so...

VOTE: ofmercia

[ProgoWoshua]

And I still need to give my reads on you, TistDaniel.

In my last game, there was a newbie scum that was scarily good at pulling off the analytical townie facade. So I'm reluctant about giving a townread based on that.

But I haven't seen anything that I consider scummy from, and there's nothing indicating that the same thing will happen in this game. So I'm still giving you a townread.

[ProgoWoshua]

Hi, Strange! Welcome!

Going to go back and try to finish reading 2087. It seems a little more important now that we have two players from that game. I also find it amusing that they're both comparing me to the same person.

I agree. It is quite amusing. But it should be expected. Your posting style is similar to his, and you're both newbies playing your first game on the site.

[ProgoWoshua]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Why so?

I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me

I think asking why over and over again is one kind of scummy reaction to being voted.

Refusing to respond to the "why"s is even scummier.

I ask you to properly address #379 instead of deflecting it.

[ProgoWoshua]

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

[ProgoWoshua]

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.

This isn't about my read on fwog, this is about my read on

you

.

First, you go:

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Then, after both me (#387 ) and fwog (#390) ask you to explain your scumread, you go:

Fair enough: @379

It sounds to me that you wanted to push on that post without a real reason... Then, once you were expected to explain your reason, you backed off. This sounds like something Mafia would do.

If you have an alternative interpretation of events, please share with me.

[ProgoWoshua]

Fair enough: @379

I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.

Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.

You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky.

Why do you keep cutting off the rest of 392? My "fair enough" is in response to Progo insisting I answer fwog's questions. All of 392 is in response to 379.

I thought the "Fair enough" was for #379. It appears I misunderstood, sorry.

Fair enough.

[ProgoWoshua]

I'm not so sure about my vote anymore.

UNVOTE: ofmercia

I re-read their progression this game, and I don't particularly think of it as scummy.

[ProgoWoshua]

Auto gives us nothing imo. Vote kitty.

I think we should vote for the person most likely to flip scum, not the one that will give us more info.

[ProgoWoshua]

Not Voting (2) - StrangeMatter, ProgoWoshua

You two gonna vote? What's your preferences today?

It's clear that today's elimination will be one of ofmercia, Auto and Kitty.

Out of those, I'm more suspicious of Auto.

I was just going to vote them, but they are in E-1 now. Now's your chance to claim your role, Auto.

[ProgoWoshua]

It's clear that today's elimination will be one of ofmercia, Auto and Kitty.

Out of those, I'm more suspicious of Auto.

I was just going to vote them, but they are in E-1 now. Now's your chance to claim your role, Auto.

(And to be clear, all but the last paragraph was written before ofmercia and Norwee's votes. I had already written my vote, but was stopped by the preview)

[ProgoWoshua]

I'll count that as a spiritual vote

It's what the cool kids call an "Intent to Hammer".

[ProgoWoshua]

Vanilla townie. Have a good day.

And my leans remain same. I could've made 10 more posts reiterating them again and again, but oh well.

Here, Auto is showing acceptance of their own elimination while in E-1. This is a town tell, and I don't think newbie scum would be able to fake that. I'm townreading Auto right now.

There's a few hours left in the deadline. Can we still eliminate someone else?

[ProgoWoshua]

UNVOTE:

I obviously haven't been on the same page as everyone else with claiming roles. It seems to me that the way everyone else plays, Auto's best strategy as scum in this situation would have been to claim a town power role, forcing town power to counterclaim, so his partner could nightkill the power role.

He didn't do that.

That's a pretty big sign that he's town.

WIFOM means that claiming VT at E-1

is

a valid play, to capitalize on this exact line of thought. You also can't unvote a hammer.

But I don't think a newbie scum on their first game would do that.

[ProgoWoshua]

It's sus that Auto isn't defending themself harder. As newbie town I'd kick and scream if I was wagoned this hard.

I disagree. Newbie scum would be the one fighting at E-1, not newbie town.

[ProgoWoshua]

Unfortunately, Micc is unavailable and will be unable to moderate the game anymore. I'll be moderating the game from now on.

Please send me a PM confirming you understand your role and alignment. This game will continue once everyone has confirmed.

Disclaimer: This is a joke! Don't actually do that, it's against the rules!

[ProgoWoshua]

I'm actually surprised they were the kill.

Who did you thought would be killed?

[ProgoWoshua]

Personally thought Norwegian was going to die there, but I guess scum thought Tist was a bigger threat.

I'm gonna look into his reads

That's what I thought too. Out of the experienced players (SEs and KittyTacky), Nowee is the least suspected.

[ProgoWoshua]

So I thought Mafia would try the get rid of him first.

[ProgoWoshua]

That makes sense.

[ProgoWoshua]

Do scum have factional kills on this site or can only one person perform the kill?

Do Day 1 mis-elimination wagons usually have scum in it?

[ProgoWoshua]

Sorry. Did not meant to quote fwog there.

[ProgoWoshua]

You can read the Sample Role PM in the beginning of the thread. The Mafia must choose one of them to carry out the kill.

[ProgoWoshua]

Mafia Goon

Welcome!

You are a

Mafia Goon

.

Your partner is PLAYERNAME who is a

Mafia Goon/Roleblocker/Rolecop

. Together you share a factional kill each night. You must choose which of you will commit the kill. You also share a factional Private Thread (PT), located here, where you may talk at any time.

You win when the Town has been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from occurring.

The game thread is here.

Confirm by replying with your role name and alignment or by posting in your PT.

[ProgoWoshua]

I am currently working on a new batch of reads. I hope I can finish today.

[ProgoWoshua]

Ok, I just started a full game analysis that will most certainly NOT be finished today. So for now I'll just spew out what I think. Note that these reads are based of my memory, so take them with a grain of salt:

Town Reads

• NorwegianboyEE: I was worried about him when he wasn't killed in Night 1, but Daniel's death makes sense in hindsight. Other than that, he's been helping town since the beginning, so I can't imagine him as Mafia.
  
  KittyTacky: It makes sense he would hammer Auto as Mafia, but it makes just as much sense he would hammer Auto as Town. He was tunneling Auto for a while, and probably suffered from confirmation bias. I still townread him from earlier in Day 1.
  
  ofmercia: Started of scummy, but got townier later. I completely get their reasoning for outing the PRs Today. In fact, I would probably came up with these sort of strategies myself (tho I would probably listen to the voice of experience).

Null Reads

• StrangeMatter: I don't remember her.

Scum Reads

• fwogcarf: I agree with ofmercia, Auto's wagon had at least one Mafia. Fwog is the only one left.
  
  Frogsterking: In the middle of Day 1, the only thing stopping me from SRing him was my SR on ofmercia. That isn't a problem now.

[ProgoWoshua]

KittyTacky's pronoun is an she btw.

Sorry, KittyTacky.

[ProgoWoshua]

Wait that part of my profile removed itself for some reason? Huh? I'll fix that.

Apparently, the old Pronoun field was taken down. You now must use the second, text-based one.

[ProgoWoshua]

VOTE: Frogsterking

[ProgoWoshua]

UNVOTE: Frogsterking
VOTE: fwogcarf

I agree with ofmercia. I'm willing to eliminate fwog today.

[ProgoWoshua]

I dont understand why people are scumreading Strange.

I’d like to see them more than anything.
Surely they’d be in prod range by now.

Nope. They posted right there:

Right now my pool is Frogster/Kitty/Fwog. I'm up to vote any one of these for what I've said earlier about these slots.

[ProgoWoshua]

fwog is in E-1 now!

[ProgoWoshua]

[...]

It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.

After I townread Auto for not defending himself at E-1, it became a valid strategy for scum too.

My PoE at this moment is Frog, fwog and Strange. I too want to hear more from Strange, but with the way things are right now, I want to eliminate either Frog or fwog.

[ProgoWoshua]

Like okay hear me out.

I'm not as sure about Fwogster being scum here but I've been thinking through my past games (which was both town and scum games) and if I were scum here I'd absolutely want to set things up for myself to win down the line and that's what I think likely one of fwog/Kitty might be trying to do.

Do you think fwog is scum? Yes or no?

[ProgoWoshua]

For the record, I'm willing to change votes to Frog or Strange.

What do you all think?

[ProgoWoshua]

So... What are we waiting for?

[ProgoWoshua]

I also dislike Progo’s "what are we waiting for?" I was clearly asking people to vote Kitty and trying to build a new wagon, but they acting like it was inevitable and we should just kill Fwog.

I'm not voting Kitty today.

[ProgoWoshua]

I suspect the scum team is fwog/Frog, and Frog just want to move the elimination away from his partner at all costs.

[ProgoWoshua]

I think flipping me wins for you.

[ProgoWoshua]

Process of elimination. I believe both scum is in [Frog, fwog, Strange]. The only other possibility is that fwog is reverse bussing Strange.

[ProgoWoshua]

Okay, why can't I be a townie who misreads you Progo?

Process of elimination. I believe both scum is in [Frog, fwog, Strange]. The only other possibility is that fwog is reverse bussing Strange.

I should have quoted Frog there.

[ProgoWoshua]

I had completely forgotten about that whole thing in Day 1. You're right, Frog + fwog is unthinkable.

[ProgoWoshua]

216 and 695 the reasoning for your townread on Kitty is garbage. They both can be summarized as "Kitty would do [post x] as mafia or as town. I have decided Kitty is town."

If you can't rule out Kitty as scum then you can't claim to scum read me by PoE.

I townread Kitty for his actions throughout Day 1. His hammer vote on Auto is NAI.

[ProgoWoshua]

Progo, in 695 you say you townread Kitty for the same reasons you explained earlier and in 216 you say Kitty defending you was late which is scummy

however

Kitty is "CLEAR" because of 75. Ever since 216 you have written and behaved as though Kitty is clear because of 75.

When I say he was "clear", I didn't mean clear of being scum. I meant clear of stating certainty about the slip later, which is what I thought was scummy.

If scum was deciding whether or not to take advantage of my slip, they would wait until after everyone else gave their thoughts about it. Kitty was late to give his thoughts, but he did posted earlier expressing uncertainty. That's how 75 "cleared" him of being late, which gave him some town points.

But this is all an old read. I'm constantly updating my reads as I read the thread, and I didn't catch him doing anything scummy. I don't think he has a Mafia agenda. Everything he did makes sense with how his own reads progressed in the game. He's nothing more than Town hunting scum.

The same can't be said about fwog and Strange (I thought Frog + fwog was likely until a moment ago, but not anymore). I suspicious because Strange said they thought fwog was Mafia, but didn't hammer fwog despite fwog had already claimed and it didn't look like he would give us anything new.

P-edit: Precisely, ofmercia.

Spoiler:

I'm trying to imagine a world where 75

clears

Kitty. It's even more difficult to imagine than Kitty hard-townreading Strange.

The problem is 75 is not clearing kitty from scum, but clearing an accusation instead.

Look at it like this. In 216, progo says kitty's defense on his intend/pretend slip comes in at post 86 (which is late and already been dissolved) so

look like it could be scum waiting

.

Then progo shows 75 which

clears kitty from the underlined above accusation.

[ProgoWoshua]

Progo if you're town you need to do a better job explaining your read on Kitty because if it's a genuine read you didn't make it look like one.

I'm sorry I didn't explain my reads (or talk much at all) during Day 1. Unfortunately, Day 2 is ending and I don't have time to go through the games explaining my reads.

So for now, how about we just compromise on Strange, since we are both suspicious of them?

UNVOTE: fwogcarf
VOTE: StrangeMatter

[ProgoWoshua]

930 makes it actually look like progo + strange. Frog might just be a genius.

I'll bite. Please vote Strange with me.

[ProgoWoshua]

930 makes it actually look like progo + strange. Frog might just be a genius.

I'll bite. Please vote Strange with me.

Strange had the deciding vote to break the two wagons tied at 3 each. Shifting a wagon onto strange will give them the 3 fwog wagon votes. Strange won't self hammer, so you're potentially eliming yourself by trying a strange wagon.

I thought fwog was the only wagon today with three votes. When did another wagon reach three votes?

[ProgoWoshua]

Didn't kitty have a strong town read on strange?

No, not a strong read:

[...]

They never did anything particularly scummy and had tried to solve. It's not a super strong townread but I don't understand the case on them.

Strange has checked out for who knows how long, and she/he might not get the chance to post again if I put to -1.

Yes, that's why it's anti-town to bring new SRs to the table when it's close to the deadline. This is why I thought Frog + fwog was more likely than Strange + fwog a few posts ago. If we can eliminate fwog today, I'll gladly change my vote back, but otherwise, I just hope Strange shows up soon.

[ProgoWoshua]

So I know the deadline is coming up very soon. We definitely need a compromise somewhere.

I'm very much at the point where I despise ending days early

(see my past two Mini games, I got hammered early, Dwlee got hammered early and screwed us over both times).

Then I'll give you the chance to end things late.

UNVOTE: StrangeMatter
VOTE: fwogcarf,

he's now in E-1!

[ProgoWoshua]

Completely off topic, but can I suggest that you just use bold to point out what you see instead of coloring posts?

I'm sorry.

Back on topic, will you hammer fwog? Or not? Stop stalling.

[ProgoWoshua]

I honestly don't care as long it's Strange or fwog.

UNVOTE: fwogcarf
VOTE: StrangeMatter

[ProgoWoshua]

Anyway can we lim Progo already.

You know you and Frog are able to eliminate Strange right now, right?

[ProgoWoshua]

And who do you think I'm partnered with?

[ProgoWoshua]

And who do you think I'm partnered with?

Does it matter?

Yes. Because if I'm eliminated today, I want to extract as much info from the others as possible in the process.

[ProgoWoshua]

... so, who do you think I'm partnered with?

[ProgoWoshua]

First, I would like to thank Frogsterking. At the beginning of Day 2, I was still one of the least RS players of the game. The chances of I getting night killed there were pretty high, so I was actually getting nervous.

Fortunately, our little... Uhh...

Discussion

at the end of Day 2 fixed that. There was absolutely no way I was getting night killed after that. So I got relieved.

It worked, I'm still here!

[ProgoWoshua]

I'm

Cop

!

fwogcarf is

Mafia

!

VOTE: fwogcarf

[ProgoWoshua]

It really depends on where the WIFOM lands on.

[ProgoWoshua]

By the way, in case it wasn't obvious, my Night 1 investigation was on KittyTacky.