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the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which
. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.
This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.
~Nancyfly
I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.
Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.
the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which
. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.
This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.
~Nancyfly
I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.
Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.
For someone I know who excels at mech, this is an extremely questionable take.
You’re essentially arguing that all 3 muses should go to their graves with unouted guilties - if they’re being run up. It is true that at least one muse can never out this due to secondary scum wincon but if hypothetically one of the muse’s target’s was a consensus townread and as such had virtually no chance of ever getting miselimed.
That actually happened in my last game. The only player who could have checked that player got NK’d and both due to role and excellent scum theatre, everyone had this player as a lock clear, so we lost due to that. Also your perspective in referencing specifically a muse getting run up and sitting on their guilty just doesn’t sit right with me.
And now you vote Noraa for what reasons even?
See Umlaut’s vote on me was wrong but not in anyway scummy + their take on the gamestate read protown.
Noraa pushing people as scumreads is nai. Ze does that every game but zer post read like it came from a townie mindset to me.
In post 123, Umlaut wrote:I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum
Want to clarify this more because whether muses refusing to ever out is
itself
necessarily best for town is up for debate and I think there are pros and cons, but I think the natural inclination for scum is to try and fish for information, not to insist information be kept secret.
In post 122, butterflies wrote:I’m saying regardless if one muse outs or not, scum has a 60% chance of getting it right. I don’t see why a muse necessarily has to do that but Dunn said basically that they should take their guilty to the grave, which makes it extremely easy for scum to push anyone on that list of 5, if they assume that the muse will allow themselves to get run up anf take their guilty to their grave.
His post bothers me because it makes it much easier to push muses/muse guesses and the specific focus on muses getting run up, is the part that I find so concerning. It’s the perspective that makes me wonder.
your statistics seem off
scum has to guess colors, not just who is a muse
Dunn wanted muses kept secret but in the context of them getting run up, so I just don’t understand why he would mention that specifically, because running up a possible muse, is obviously the best move for scum, so long as they die with their guilty.
If it's somebody who won't get eliminated otherwise, sure, reveal, but keep in mind that there will probably only be 1 muse claiming a target this game. I do think it is disadvantageous for muses to always claim their target when being run up
And then after my vote, I don't like the reaction in posts 108, 109, 110, which are also all made within 2 minutes of each other yet 8 hours after I posted
In post 112, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y
Typically the first ~6 posts I make isn't enough to get a conclusive read on me and there is a lot of reaching and jumping to conclusions. Especially trying to tie me to fugitive/progo is reaching. I simply asked Gamma to explain what he was talking about (which to be clear, is not inherently a defense of Fugitive/Progo). I feel that Gamma weakened their own position by saying they don't know or care about what they are accusing Progo of doing. My personal stance on this is that post 22 was a joke and that progo was simply trying to explain as much. Whether they've done no analysis is a different point which has some merit, though I will point out that a lot of what they have done is responding to other people, and when you are responding to other people you aren't as likely to put forward other analysis, especially if they weren't already inclined to doing so.
In post 250, Umlaut wrote:I want to understand the Dunnstral case because it seems like a lot of people are in enough agreement to put him at L-1 but I just... don't. It seems like it's Noraa saying "trust me folks Dunn is absolutely scum, I know scum!Dunn when I see it" and everyone else going along with it. I mean Dunn could be scum just like anyone who isn't towntelling could be scum, but I don't see anything to make me pick them out of the lineup. What am I missing?
Um ok I'll try to explain it. I just got out of bed so bear with me. Dunn is scum because well, for one, Dunn cares about what people think in general. And town Dunn has enough confidence in their reads to not care (town dunn has good reads btw). Town Dunn is more often than not scumread for really stupid reasons: activity, tone, whatever. But Dunn is much better at towntelling as scum than town because they actually actively trying to be townread.
Dunn is really good at mafia in my opinion. Town Dunn is good at catching scum and Scum Dunn is good at being townread. But the issue is that there is a drastic difference between the two, at least from my perspective, there is.
Going to point out that you didn't actually answer the question, which is why am I scum in this game. You instead gave an overview of your read on my meta with nothing to connect it to the current game at a glance.
In post 278, Noraa wrote:I mean if you are scum, i dont understand why you are trolling me.
I explained why in post 261. If I were mafia having you outline an actual thought process would be helpful to narrow down muses. I'm not sure why you feel the need to justify your read post hammer so hard when you wouldn't do so before the hammer; it feels like you are playing for tomorrow.
In post 271, Noraa wrote:Dunn's SR on me is straight up there in an attempt to get TRs.
In post 271, Noraa wrote:To your average mafia player (implosion, umlaut),
In post 271, Noraa wrote:But trust me if we threw town dunn into this game, both implosion and umlaut would agree dunn is scummy if this wagon were to happen.
