Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Dunnstral

Obvscum

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Umlaut
>:[

;þ

[Umlaut]

VOTE: butterflies
hiya

Why vote the unconfirmed slot?

[Umlaut]

I am a Merlin.

I'm Tomboy Daughter.

[Umlaut]

Good morning.

I don't see why that post from furtive is suspicious.

Agree with this, I found it more awkward-person awkward than scum awkward

A lot of mech talk from implo, none of it bad per se but personally I plan to just play Mafia and plan to win that way instead of over worrying about who is a muse. Why can't the muses just push good cases on scum without having to say who they are?

Furt, would like you to clarify what you mean by suggesting muses claim outright, because obviously they shouldn't all do that unless I am misunderstanding something.

[Umlaut]

So of everyone who’s posted thus far, three slots have pinged me: Gamma, Umlaut and most recently furtive. Of the three, I have extensive meta on Gamma and when I compare his posting here with uPick!Anything for example, he feels different. In that game, he wasn’t really trying to solve and was basically pretty spammy.

Umlaut: Still not a fan but calling Gamma out for the unconfirmed vote, makes me a bit hesitant.

VOTE: butterflies

This "read" on me is nonsense. It's made when I have all of four one-line posts, three of which are RVS shitposts and the fourth of which is the one you like (calling out Gamma). Tell me what exactly you are not a fan of.

[Umlaut]

Until now, you hadn’t really done anything. I don’t see why you scumread me for that. And I wasn’t even the only one who felt that way, so I don’t understand what about my post bothers you in particular. I’m not even currently voting you.
~Nancyfly

I don't care if you're voting me, I care if you're making up reasons. Galron just said I "pinged [them]" which is whatever, people ping people all the time, but you voted me in 63 which is really silly as Enchant pointed out ("if one of these exactly two people is scum I'd bet it's Umlaut" is... I don't even know what that is) and then said that my one good posts is literally the one post with content I had made.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: butterflies

The initial suspicion was real but I think their reaction to my reaction to them is pretty good actually.

Not really sure who to vote instead. I like Furt (moreso how they're playing than the direction of their reads), I kind of like implo but am afraid that might be for more playstyle- than alignment-indicative things, I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum, and I could take or leave pretty much everyone else. So I guess

VOTE: Woshua
because wagon.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are.

This probability is way wrong, btw: correctly guessing a subset of 3 from 5 is a 10% chance, not 60%, because there are 10 possible subsets of 3 to choose from.

[Umlaut]

I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum

Want to clarify this more because whether muses refusing to ever out is

itself

necessarily best for town is up for debate and I think there are pros and cons, but I think the natural inclination for scum is to try and fish for information, not to insist information be kept secret.

[Umlaut]

I don't like that Progo has done no analysis since furtiveglance pointed out that he's given almost no analysis. He's made a couple posts today but neither of them has any real substance.

This sounds like what happens to me as scum when I feel "locked into" playing a certain way once someone has pointed it out; usually because I've been genuinely busy or just distracted for a few days but once someone explicitly says "wow Umlaut is doing nothing" I become afraid that if I start doing something I'll be called out for changing my behavior in response to reads.

[Umlaut]

Noting the vc

What about it?

[Umlaut]

At the beginning of the game, the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

For those of you who aren’t seeing what I am, scum gets a list of 5 townies that they can’t kill N1. Dunn’s opening post is about that a muse shouldn’t claim even if they get run up. They’re next post is an extremely scummy vote on Noraa.

Conclusion: Noraa is > than rand one of the 5 townies on the N1 no kill list.

~Nancyfly

This feels premature without a Dunn flip, and possibly circular if you are using it to support a case that Dunn is scum.

[Umlaut]

PAGETOP

[Umlaut]

I will unvote Noraa for now, my scumread could have been to do with playstyle. I am strongly opposed to the Progo vote, and would prefer Titus/Umlaut to Dunnstral if possible. Thoughts?

What is convincing you you're wrong about Noraa here? As of 176 you still disagreed with the townreads there, what's happened in the past page to change your mind?

[Umlaut]

Gamma you say Progo's defence of me felt like it was informed/ulterior motive. I know I'm town, so I know we aren't paired scum

Gamma specifically said "Regardless of furtive's alignment" in 112, the post you are referencing. Whatever ulterior motive he's talking about he is not specifically saying the two of you have to be scum together

[Umlaut]

I want to understand the Dunnstral case because it seems like a lot of people are in enough agreement to put him at L-1 but I just... don't. It seems like it's Noraa saying "trust me folks Dunn is absolutely scum, I know scum!Dunn when I see it" and everyone else going along with it. I mean Dunn could be scum just like anyone who isn't towntelling could be scum, but I don't see anything to make me pick them out of the lineup. What am I missing?

[Umlaut]

I have played a fair few games with Dunn and can say I'm astonished that anyone thinks they can read him with 100% accuracy so quickly

[Umlaut]

I admit that I have been scummy. Because of that, I find it suspicious how furtive is still on my side after all this time. Definitely feels like they have some ulterior motive.

The duplication of the phrase "ulterior motive" suggests to me that Progo and Gamma are not scum together; scum!Progo would be hyper-conscious of their buddy's wording and not want to imitate it.

Pedit: oh ffs

[Umlaut]

Please ignore everyone saying "flashwagon me tomorrow if this is wrong" and flashwagon Enchant if this is wrong

[Umlaut]

I really despise this site's increasing tolerance of pointless quickhammers and will happily policy Enchant today. If you want to vote them because you have some other reason to think they're scum then that's great, so long as you vote them.

VOTE: Enchant

[Umlaut]

What does expert mean? And what was Enchant's alignment in that game?

[Umlaut]

im up for policying enchant but im also worried bc isnt it elo @_@

No, if we get it wrong today tomorrow will presumably be 4:3 elo

[Umlaut]

Thanks for the 5-second panic attack before I actually thought about it, there

[Umlaut]

anyway, vote Enchant for a brighter tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

Really like fire's read-in. I don't love the part where they say I'm scummy but I agree with Noraa it shows a level of nuance and careful reading that I don't really expect from scum. Fire seems so transparently towny that it bothers me implo doesn't see it.

Actually I really hate implo's whole reaction to fire here, especially 413 which seems like warning fire off trying to make reads or publicize them in a way that feels really anti-town. I actually really liked implo for town based on their posting yesterday so have to think about what to do with this but definitely knock them down a notch or three.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut

: 'Policy voting' Enchant pinged me. I wouldn't policy vote someone I thought was town. I also still think omgussing butterflies day 1 was scummy, followed by voting Progo who's slot is now town in my eyes. Seems to be pairing with implosion. I can't see implosion/Umlaut as much as I can see Enchant/Titus, but scum might not openly pair anyway.

I don't think Enchant is town. Where are you getting that I think they're town? Enchant's hammer was bad, their reaction to Dunn's twilight posts was bad for the reasons Noraa has already given, and the excuses they're making today are just wildly implausible (not to mention, as implo said, why even make excuses for doing what you always do as town, unless you have a guilty conscience about it?)

[Umlaut]

Not dealing with Mafia tonight, see you tomorrow

Fire asked me something about why I townread implo yesterday and I don't really remember beyond "I liked their posts" but will go through when I can be arsed and remind myself what posts sprcifically

[Umlaut]

Not dealing with Mafia tonight, see you tomorrow

Fire asked me something about why I townread implo yesterday and I don't really remember beyond "I liked their posts" but will go through when I can be arsed and remind myself what posts sprcifically

Okay, doing this now.

• I liked their mech discussion because it seemed directed at actually finding the best way for town to play and not at just IIoA "this is how the setup works" stuff; particularly liked how they put it in 55.
  
• I liked their reads in 105, which I'm maybe biased toward a little because they called me town, but I particularly think calling Galron town for the reasons he did is a
  weird
  read that scum are unlikely to come up with.
  
• I feel like their turnaround on furtive in 173 is likewise just unnecessary for scum and shows evolution of rads.
  
• I vibed with 245 and 246

I guess that's not all that much but it's more of a townread than I had on most players yesterday (mostly it was hard to get anyone out of null)

[Umlaut]

I admit that I have been scummy. Because of that, I find it suspicious how furtive is still on my side after all this time. Definitely feels like they have some ulterior motive.

The duplication of the phrase "ulterior motive" suggests to me that Progo and Gamma are not scum together; scum!Progo would be hyper-conscious of their buddy's wording and not want to imitate it.

Pedit: oh ffs

This post from Umlaut sticks out to me because it was furtive Progo was referencing not Gamma here, so why no comment on furtive?

I mean I get the “ulterior motive” thing but it’s odd that Umlaut posts this but says nothing about Progo’s suspicion on furtive.

~Nancyfly

I don't understand what's odd about this. Why do I have to comment on Progo's read of furtive just because I noticed something about the post?

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Enchant

What do you think of my entire solve? Why help scum likely bus?

But most importantly, why don’t you want to wait for Noraa who’s on V/LA until Monday to rush this wagon?

And I would think you wouldn’t want to rush this vote with furtive, positioning you with Enchant?

~Nancyfly

Hero solves routinely let charismatic scum get away with flipping town because their wagons are "contested". Lack of contest can be a reason to think a slot is town. However, if you think they're scum, the best play is to lim them. Confident town can take out the deep scum later. Taking the low hanging scum also obscures Merlins as well everyone thinks that slot is scum. Forcing plays tips off if I am a Merlin or not.

As for waiting for Noraa, voting someone does not mean I want the day to end. If someone actually voted to end the day, that would be a huge FoS but getting wagons to go well before deadline is good.

I'm not certain what your third question means but I'm very open to scum bussing and one of those scum being furtive. In fact, furtiveglance could be lockscum. Who knows?

I think easy routes until elo are best.

This is a good post

[Umlaut]

also agree that Titus post is good. I think it's pretty unlikely that we get away without an Enchant mislim in the event that he's town, given that (1) he's staunchly refusing to play the actual game and (2) a sort of critical mass of people have called him scum.

Something about this bothers me. Like, it's a totally legitimate and rational line of reasoning, but given that people are not entirely rational it seems like the sort of rational observation more likely to come from scum who can easily maintain their detachment and objectivity, vs. town who typically want to eliminate whom they believe to be scum, objectivity be damned.

Implo, what is your actual read on Enchant rn? Do you think they're scum and this "likely to get miselimmed anyway" argument is just the icing on the cake, or what?

[Umlaut]

I don't know what is going on with butterflies' hero solve and am not really inclined to address it until I do. As long as we agree on Enchant today we can sort out the rest later. I will say that being so

insistent

upon it reads sort of town in that there is no reason to put in that sort of intense propaganda effort for something one doesn't really believe in (beyond "to look town," I guess, but still)

[Umlaut]

The reason why I think it’s furtuve/umlaut/enchant, is that furtive was both scumreading and defending Umlaut in his posts and Umlaut never talks about furtive. My scumread on Umlaut increased since he’s seems to be trying to move away from limming Enchant to now prefering Implosion after tr him and this seems to be coinciding with my push on furtive. Umlaut was pretty much gung ho on limming Enchant but now that furtive is in a much weaker position, he suddenly seems to be flipping his reads on both Implosion and Enchant but never once addresses my case on furtive. He just seems to be completely ignoring it, which is really strange.

Tell me your case on furtive and I'll address it. My attention has been kind of elsewhere than Mafia lately.

I absolutely have not flipped my read on Enchant and I'll thank you to scumread me for things I am actually doing and not things you just made up.

[Umlaut]

v/la until at least Saturday

IRL medical issues

[Umlaut]

Sorry about being kind of useless while I was in the game. I got massively overcommitted IRL and probably should have quit sooner instead of trying to stick it out.