Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: butterflies
hiya

[Gamma Emerald]

This is my first non-Newbie game, I think this setup is magic. To everyone claiming Merlin, I am not aMused.

VOTE: furtiveglance

[Gamma Emerald]

The reason I say there's very little cost to a single merlin claiming without color is that from a pure numbers perspective, the odds of scum getting it correct shift from 1/60 (negligible) to 1/36 (also negligible) assuming no one else claims for the rest of the game. Even taking into account that scum have all of the information of all our ISOs at their disposal, I still see that cost as trivial for the benefit.

In other news: why the FoS on furtiveglance?

I think a Merlin revealing should be held off on until later
Also, I don’t rlly have the words to express my initial thought rn so I’ll just say furtive’s entrance felt awkward

[Gamma Emerald]

Hi everyone, I'll read through, give my thoughts on players, and vote tonight when I get home. As for the strategy talk, I read a previous game of this setup and town actually lost the main game, and the mafia wouldn't have guessed the Merlins correctly. Therefore we might have slightly more wiggle room in terms of Muses influencing the game or even claiming outright than you might expect. The main thing is to ensure we at least win the main game.

The “main” game? We’re only playing ONE game. Are you actually suggesting that they claim outright? I think I’m starting to understand why some people aren’t vibing with your posts.


So how did town lose the game? Are you planning to explain this?

This post isn’t making any sense, anyone else think this?

~Nancyfly

Pretty sure “main game” means voting out scum, with the Muse secrecy being secondary

[Gamma Emerald]

@titus, @gamma

furtive's intro was just a joke, right? What's so suspicious about it?

The integration of game terminology felt ham-fisted

[Gamma Emerald]

Progo’s defense of furtive is pretty weirdChamp

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

[Gamma Emerald]

At the beginning of the game,

the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which

. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.

~Nancyfly

I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.

Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.

For someone I know who excels at mech, this is an extremely questionable take.

You’re essentially arguing that all 3 muses should go to their graves with unouted guilties - if they’re being run up. It is true that at least one muse can never out this due to secondary scum wincon but if hypothetically one of the muse’s target’s was a consensus townread and as such had virtually no chance of ever getting miselimed.

That actually happened in my last game. The only player who could have checked that player got NK’d and both due to role and excellent scum theatre, everyone had this player as a lock clear, so we lost due to that. Also your perspective in referencing specifically a muse getting run up and sitting on their guilty just doesn’t sit right with me.

And now you vote Noraa for what reasons even?

See Umlaut’s vote on me was wrong but not in anyway scummy + their take on the gamestate read protown.

Noraa pushing people as scumreads is nai. Ze does that every game but zer post read like it came from a townie mindset to me.

~Nancyfly

only one muse should ever out
chance scum gets it right if 1 muse outs is 1/12
chance they get it right if 2 out is 1/3
and it's probably even easier for them to figure out that 1/3 than a 1/12 where they have to get two right out of 4 names

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m saying regardless if one muse outs or not, scum has a 60% chance of getting it right. I don’t see why a muse necessarily has to do that but Dunn said basically that they should take their guilty to the grave, which makes it extremely easy for scum to push anyone on that list of 5, if they assume that the muse will allow themselves to get run up anf take their guilty to their grave.

His post bothers me because it makes it much easier to push muses/muse guesses and the specific focus on muses getting run up, is the part that I find so concerning. It’s the perspective that makes me wonder.

your statistics seem off
scum has to guess colors, not just who is a muse

[Gamma Emerald]

If the Mafia are all eliminated, they have one more shot at winning by correctly identifying all 3 Merlins,

including their colors

.

[Gamma Emerald]

Don’t know, don’t care, I’m probably right about this

[Gamma Emerald]

Well, if Dunn is scum, he’d be the hardest one to catch and the most lethal scum.

idk about that

[Gamma Emerald]

pls

[Gamma Emerald]

I’d call Dunn’s Noraa vote late-stage RVS at best

[Gamma Emerald]

I am strongly opposed to the Progo vote

Why?

would prefer Titus/Umlaut to Dunnstral if possible

Why?

[Gamma Emerald]

The issue I have wrt Progo is the defense seems too avid for a regular townie.

[Gamma Emerald]

Hi everyone, I'll read through, give my thoughts on players, and vote tonight when I get home. As for the strategy talk, I read a previous game of this setup and town actually lost the main game, and the mafia wouldn't have guessed the Merlins correctly. Therefore we might have slightly more wiggle room in terms of Muses influencing the game or even claiming outright than you might expect. The main thing is to ensure we at least win the main game.

This post also flagged to me so I'm supporting the vote.

We have 2 miselimimations, there's no wiggle room there.

Each game is different with different factors - the players being a big variable shift. Me, I can't guess guess crap. I'd have no chance so I would be pushing the primary goal, not the secondary.

[...]

- £!3 ButterFlea

I think you might have misunderstood furtive here. The "wiggle room" they've mentioned is about the Muses potentially giving clues about their identities in order to increase the Town's chance to catch scum. So defending against the primary goal in expense of the secondary, not the other way around.

What about this post?

[Gamma Emerald]

They problem isn’t what they’re pointing out, it’s how

[Gamma Emerald]

Hi, sorry for the delay.

I don't know what Noraa is talking about, implosion's logic is sound. Implosion's conclusion isn't "All three muses should claim right now", but "muses should claim if it benefits Town". In most situations, only one muse would have to claim, which isn't too awful.

Hi everyone, I'll read through, give my thoughts on players, and vote tonight when I get home. As for the strategy talk, I read a previous game of this setup and town actually lost the main game, and the mafia wouldn't have guessed the Merlins correctly. Therefore we might have slightly more wiggle room in terms of Muses influencing the game or even claiming outright than you might expect. The main thing is to ensure we at least win the main game.

This post also flagged to me so I'm supporting the vote.

We have 2 miselimimations, there's no wiggle room there.

Each game is different with different factors - the players being a big variable shift. Me, I can't guess guess crap. I'd have no chance so I would be pushing the primary goal, not the secondary.

[...]

- £!3 ButterFlea

I think you might have misunderstood furtive here. The "wiggle room" they've mentioned is about the Muses potentially giving clues about their identities in order to increase the Town's chance to catch scum. So defending against the primary goal in expense of the secondary, not the other way around.

Progo’s posted explanations don’t leave any room for doubt, they are matter of fact “this is what they were saying”
Tho I feel a little off-kilter rn so bear with me

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: dunnstral
I stand with Noraa

[Gamma Emerald]

That was a rather unceremonious hammer

[Gamma Emerald]

Please ignore everyone saying "flashwagon me tomorrow if this is wrong" and flashwagon Enchant if this is wrong

Good call. Enchant is my biggest scumread right now, even before and not really related to the hammer.

So you are town.
I quess i die.

I could have been mafia trying to figure out if you were a muse or not from your hammer, but I guess that didn't occur to you.

Damn.

Yeah this isn’t great

[Gamma Emerald]

Can’t wait to read the scum PT