Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[bloodhail]

apologies in advance to the scumteam

[bloodhail]

mena is obvtown, skitter is obvtown, std is obvtown, fire is probtown though i'd want to read there a little more

coalition scum likely one of dats/ari, lean dats from what i've seen but i need to iso both of them first

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why is mena obvtown

because his reads and conviction stem from a real place, he's obviously annoyed at being misread even if he's trying to hold back on it but he's an omgussy boy and that's where the whole elim me and sheep my reads bit is coming in, i dont think thats the approach he takes as scum. hes obv someone who dislikes getting misread (i know b/cfi am too) and thats coming out in his play

hes just town im sorry dude i dont see your issues with him as being scumtells

[bloodhail]

I do like your choice of alt to replace in on

it is my favorite personality of yours

i had kinda wanted this to be an aggro alt but instead its the low effort vibes alt

[bloodhail]

i took this slot because it was 1. obvious town to me (i like scumming but not in a pl with so much meta) 2. poe via being in the coalition so easier to get reads from but less likely to be alive to make difficult decisions if the games that way

[bloodhail]

@bloodhail how mucu did u read in advance?
Why am i obvtown?

(I know that there's stuff in the middle to/abt me, i'll get to it when i get home later)

i was sort of idly following along in the post-coalition phase, read the recent few pages, iso dove menalque and you and jumped in

read through your iso and the stuff you're saying just makes sense, the way you've kicked into overdrive in the post-coalition phase looks like you actually care about solving the game, argument with irrel looked towny to me

idk ur just an ez read

[bloodhail]

well well, this game just got spicy

interested to see your isoing~

im not gna show my work if thats what ur hoping 4 dude

[bloodhail]

has worked out okay before

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i think ari is decently unaligned w/ mala and nk15 so prob unlikely im gonna want to flip her today. think if scum shes only scum with datisi (or fire if im wrong there) so not an optimal vote


halfway thru the iso she is trending town for me altho probably the person here most likely to fool me so grain of salt there

[bloodhail]

ok i guess i'm just here then i dunno what to do

just ftr i dont wanna seem like im shitting on you, i can try to address your case against menalque later after im caught up and see if we can claer things up that way

[bloodhail]

because his reads and conviction stem from a real place, he's obviously annoyed at being misread even if he's trying to hold back on it but he's an omgussy boy and that's where the whole elim me and sheep my reads bit is coming in, i dont think thats the approach he takes as scum. hes obv someone who dislikes getting misread (i know b/cfi am too) and thats coming out in his play

this isn't that convincing to me tbh

like i feel like these are exactly the markers he would be trying to hit if he were scum here so the fact that he's hitting them doesn't really do much to make me think he's town

you've played with him more so ig you can just say that you know what he would do better than i do, but idk, still doesn't really do a lot for me

what ive seen of scum-him was pretty tepid, hed fake ate under pressure but that was about it. dont think he goes to that well post-hiatus necessarily either but every indicator says his reads here are real

[bloodhail]

gonna be one of those games where the solve is quite easy but getting the cooperation is going to be hard i think


p sure ari is just town at ~75% of the iso. either datisi is scum or someone is fooling me. we'll see.

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i am 89% confident aristeia is town after finishing reading her iso

in particular her approach to the conflict between my slot and menalque just desnt seem scummy to me - while i

could

see her as scum capitulating to elim irrelephant because thats the easy way out i dunno that she lampshades the thing as tvt as mafia, just feels like putting th cart before the horse too much, if shes trying to murder a town i expect her to just do it rather than set up for day 3 or w/e

[bloodhail]

ok i guess i'm just here then i dunno what to do

just ftr i dont wanna seem like im shitting on you, i can try to address your case against menalque later after im caught up and see if we can claer things up that way

i mean it's not just you

maybe i'm tunneled so hard but it was nice to have irrelephant in here being like "listen to me AND std when we tell you this" it was easier when someone was on my side but now i'm just doubting everything and frustrated because why would mena mischaracterize my case on him as town i don't really get it but i guess other people are just okay with it

like i'm not even trying to get them to look at my case anymore i'm like look at this scummy thing he did post case and ari said "nah" and i can't get the two people tring him based on meta and familiarity to even comment on it

i hate getting ignored in games and feel like i constantly have a problem with people doing it to me so

i promise, promise, promise i will return to what you are saying here and give you a thorough response

but if you could link me posts you've made pointing to your case on him so i don't have to dig for it, that would be much appreciated


deal?

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datisi is great at writig posts -exceedingly logical and comprehensible. but i'm not getting the feeling of towniness yet. possible i have biased myself into this world because he caught my eye last, but it is what it is. i also feel like of anyone in the coalition his day 1 play makes the most sense as being scum motivated?

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where a lot of people are particularly concerned with either finding townies or possibly excluding themselves from the coalition, datisi seems focused on discrediting townreads on people in a way that seemed like jockeying to ensure he'd be one of the most townread

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Hi person who I haven’t seen on this alt before but who is incredibly obvious fortunately

was publicly outed for my dc nom so not like im hiding anything

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i think the poe is probably datisi/mala/nk15 and i lean toward it being the first 2 names

VOTE: datisi

halfway thru the iso but feel confident enough to vote this now. will return to chat more but taking a break for dinner soonish

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where a lot of people are particularly concerned with either finding townies or possibly excluding themselves from the coalition, datisi seems focused on discrediting townreads on people in a way that seemed like jockeying to ensure he'd be one of the most townread

well this feels like utter bullshit considering i was working towards a coalition from the start of d1

not my perception of how events unfolded

ngl i will be incredibly annoyed if the scum-plan for this was "ok as soon as you enter the game, start pushing datisi for whatever reason you come up with, a few people had doubts there recently"

nah im town here

if im misfiring on you very sorry but that is what my read has given me


but u + multiple other people itg have experience with how i replace into a poe scum slot and it is not this. you could make the case that my options are limited i guess but w/e. im town and my main concern is getting my perspective into the thread

[bloodhail]

i am 89% confident aristeia is town after finishing reading her iso

in particular her approach to the conflict between my slot and menalque just desnt seem scummy to me - while i

could

see her as scum capitulating to elim irrelephant because thats the easy way out i dunno that she lampshades the thing as tvt as mafia, just feels like putting th cart before the horse too much, if shes trying to murder a town i expect her to just do it rather than set up for day 3 or w/e

Seems scummy to me

from me or from her? going to need a little elaboration

(1) i don't read games closely after i die in them
(2) from what i remember in that game, there was an ongoing bus between your slot and gl so it made sense to continue it. if you're replacing into a shitty situation here or if your partner would be likely to go down after you, you can't play the same way
(3) you're a much better scum player than needed for the "i would always play the same way in x situation" to work

point is my slot was marked for death because i replaced a hydra that flaked, so i just rolled over and died because it wasnt worth expending the effort and giving away associatives

herre not necessarily the same but im likely always poe and never escaping it and to that end my goal would be setting up associatives for my partner to win off of, most likely

thing is as a town replace in im unburdened by having to guard any secrets or work toward a goal so i can just generate reads freely and quickly


dunno you reflexively going to suggesting this is scummy from me rather than figuring out if im incorrect just feels like a scum response to me

[bloodhail]

I dont think bloodhail's done anything particularly townie (esp. for him ) since repping in

I still kinda think that slot's the scum
With quite a lot of paranoia on ari
And mild-to-moderate amts of paranoia on dats

think irrel was actually quite blatantly town if you view him as someone who strongly believes in his mena scumread and is getting flustered at not getting followed, s'why i took this


but i have precisely 0 objection to getting flipped today if i cant convince people of my worldview, its the best day to do it

[bloodhail]

except your partner would win much easier if you get a misyeet or two, and again, if the partner is in a shit position themselves you need a hail mary

saying "you're scum for not trying to figure out if i'm a wrong town" is very funny considering you yourself first said that you have no plans of showing your work, and then you dropped a poe "not trying to find townies" scumread of me so like lol?

i said i'm not doing a iso analysis, cuz this is a gut feelings game from me cuz i dont want to exert too much effort or overanalyze. im here to take it easy (which, i know, is insane but is the only way i could justify this to myself).

none of me going gut/simplistic in my reads rather than doing a big schmancy case with postnum links is preventing you from being able to talk to me. i will try to explain stuff as best as i can when asked. the fact you act like i am closing the door to discussion rather than you actively not trying to find me as town is ?????

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dunno you reflexively going to suggesting this is scummy from me rather than figuring out if im incorrect just feels like a scum response to me

like yeah

i think your read on me being what it is, accompanied with "idk maybe i'm confbiased lol", and townreading skitt and ari for weird and easy reasons in a time where i am probably the most possible alternate flip? yeah it's not a good look from where i'm standing

ok then vote me

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i said i think your characterization of my play is wrong

you went "no, actually" and that was that

like excuse me for getting the idea that you were not planning to actually talk to me

i dont know how willing i am to get into the nitty gritty of this given my stated desire to not expend too much energy (sure, call this a cop out, whatever)

but i think if i went that route it's ultimately going to boil down to "here's what i see in your day 1 play with posts and reasons" and you go "well i disagree"

and i don't think that gets us anywhere

[bloodhail]

i feel like this is a little unfair since you can't actually explain it since you aren't him
but i'm somewhat worried of the timing of irrel's backtrack on mena: when it looked like he/mena were going to go 1-2 in either order.
to me, i'm reading that a bit like he realized he's gonna die soon and needs to find a way to de-escalate and find another person to push

if you can share @bloodhail what you think was particularly townie abt irrel that would be appreciated

will try when i have time although i have like 3 different things to address now and attempting to towncase my slot is probably the least important, you know?

and i guess if it isn't you/him i'm kinda at a loss where i want to go
i feel v confident it isn't mena
otherwise idk

i mean: kill me and then maybe give consideration to my own read? just a thought

also i'm a little hmmmm? on your read on me

i can feel the jealousy

[bloodhail]

from me or from her? going to need a little elaboration

ari

okay so, i dunno how much i wanna drill down into the ari read in particular but: if ari is mafia who do you think has the potential to be her partner, because fmpov there aren't a lot of likely possibilities

[bloodhail]

Spoiler: datisi's posts about skitter

At eod tho, again, my point goes back to u wanting dats/yourself over std, and that's where my suspicions are stemming from, as that's the point if difference in my mind, and nof really what i wanted, and i very strongly consider him town

this is something that i wanna circle back to later but the tl;dr is that i went though skitt/ari interactions and there were a lot of posts from skitter where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

so the immediate pushback on d2 how this is not what skitter wanted and she is so frustrated that this isn't the coalition she wanted when she pretty much spent more time hinting at being fine with ari being in the coalition and saying how she's not really pushing her own coalition or not playing that hard feels a bit Off

attempting to analyze skitter's coalition preferences and pushes, starting from page 24:

page 24 is the first time ari offers to sheep skitter. 591 is skitt having a preference of skitt/dats/irrel/std/mena, idk who to go after if that fails. then we figure out the deadline is not as short, ok cool there's more time.

but yeah i guess i'll go through the thought experiment:

ari agreeing to be left out of a coalition of me/irrel/mena/std/dats
means it doesn't make sense for her to be scum with fire/mala/nk15

tbh i don't see anything impossible for ari + any of irrel/mena/std/dats

this is the next relevant post in the skitt/ari discussion - where skitter says it doesn't make sense for ari to be scum with a "lower-rated" player but does with a "higher-rated" player (you know what i mean)

Probably still you but apparently i relish paranoia and indecision
I.e. i'm still not confident on a 5th yet, if i had to pick one would probably be you but still not confident enuf to settle on that if that makes sense

I will probably get over this closer to deadline

next relevant post - skitter says she still prefers skitt/dats/irrel/std/mena, with me being lowest confidence

next relevant post...

i think if ari is scum she's likely scum with someone who is already in, and so there is very little utility to leaving her out

... honestly this is a p good point

Tbh the more I think abt it from this pov i'm not entirelu opposed to putting ari in
(On the condition that if it fails and she doesnt, like, solve the game she gets flipped before elo)

is skitter saying how fire has a point in his analysis and basically saying she could maybe sorta put ari into the coalition.

Mala do u have any response to my posts towards u on the prior page?

I'm leaning towards me/mena/irrel/std + one of ari/dats/fire rn

again, this is like, not showing a huge preference on which person gets added as the 5th.

And then i guess i kinda vibe with fire's point that if ari is scum its probably with someone in the consensus coalition anyways, so i'm no longer entirely opposed

I guess i dont object to putting ari in but i'd want her to go in with dats, and i want the condition to be that if its elo and she hasnt found all the scum, she gets flipped
Otherwise i probably want dats in

i cut this post a bit but the important part is that skitter was decently fine with ari being in a coalition, mostly due to fire's arguments

I think if you want to be the leader here you should put the reads you feel confident in.

I have a lot of thoughts about Dats and I'm not sure how helpful it will be for you to read them but I can write them down if you want me to.

I'm not confident I can find scum!him.

I mean i dont think i indicated i wanted to be a leader here at all >.> my reads arent confident enuf , and its not like i'm strongly pushing a given coalition either

And if ur not confident in dats either idk if i want to pit him in, but then it's hard for me to find a confident fifth

this is the next relevant post, where ari is nudging skitter to be a leader, and she openly says that she doesn't want to be the leader, she's not feeling confident enough, she's not strongly pushing, etc

1038 is a hmm post to me because i felt like std was viable at the time and the fact that she was going "is std viable? no? i guess i can remove him..." is Concerning

I think he knows I'm very hard to mis-eliminate so putting me into a coalition really is limiting his own mislim opportunities and making it harder for himself post-coalition failure and I'm not sure why he would want to do that? It really does feel like he wants a coalition that will work.

Ty for writing that all out, i appreciate it

I think the above is a cogent point + there's quite a lot of depth/nuance here that i had to ask for (i.e. it doesnt seem like a read that you made up to share to look Nuanced, its more just something internally that youu were wresting with that you shared when i asked), which makes me think its more likely real

this is a kind of a townread of ari

I still reallh want me/mena/irrel/std but alas we cannot all have the things we want

this is i think the last time skitter commented how much she wants the coalition, but immediately notes it's most likely not happening.

then it's mena appearing, the hammer, coalition failure, etc.

Me/mena/irrel/std

Ok so is this a viable core, and if yes, who should the fifth be?

we're all just guessing it's fine it's just a game

don't stress skitts pls let's make this a very low key and fun thing : )

I mean this is what i was pushing for a few days, you never seemed interested, and when i directly asked you this is what u answered

I also asked u directly about std a few posts down and you told me you wanted dats over him

this is what she says shortly after d2 starts.

and like, i have problems with her characterizing her posts on a coalition with std as "pushes" because all she did was ask a few times if a core that includes std is ok. like, that's not a push. she wasn't pushing for std to be included, she mentioned a few times that she townreads him (unless i missed it, it wasn't even explained why) and that she doesn't want ari and ari is not her first choice. except she also has so many posts on why she could maybe sorta put ari into the coalition.

so like

mmmm

this feels like "scum hyperfocusing on a thing that is Weird or maybe Contradictory but is not actually scum motivted behavior"

b/c while you can make that point that skitter didn't really try to get std added into the coalition but complained about it afterward


what is the scum motivation in that?


why does it

matter

?

if skitter is scum then

she is the scum in the coalition

and her not doing enough to get STD in is...entirely irrelevant. it does not change the gamestate AT ALL if STD is in coalition or out of coalition in skitter-scum worlds. I would think Datisi is sharp enough to realize this. the idea he posits is that skitter would have done more as town but is really just making the presumption that town always plays optimally or ideally and that's just not true. people are timid sometimes. it does not make them scum. skitter is often indecisive as town. i dont think this is a genuine suspicion on datisis part.

[bloodhail]

ok, i'm reading page 65 and i get this weird feeling of... panic? from irrel's 1606, 1611, 1613. what i mean is,

a good amount of these posts boil down to "things that this person did are weird and do not have obvious town motivation, therefore they come from scum" when i feel like most of experienced players don't use level-zero-logic like that in order to argue their points. or rather, they go through the thought process of "does it actually make sense for scum to do this"

. like, i get that it's not optimal to want to yeet outside the coalition but what does scum!mena gain with that?

heh

[bloodhail]

i just dont get the feeling datisi has really been trying to find who is mafia in the coalition much as i read through the iso

[bloodhail]

yeah i um


kind of think datisi and roden were distancing lol

will feel bad if i'm right and i just blew up their spot because i wanted to be the hero and chat with my fuzzy friends but i can't unsee it


i will get around to answering STD about his read on menalque in a bit

[bloodhail]

1522 outlines my current point against him and features pieces of my case from other posts
1513 is a rebuttal to his case against me which was in post 1484

okay so like

i dunno how to wrap my brain around this and explain this in a way that feels like i'm blowing you off

but i don't think stuff like him having disparate reads on you/my slot is inherently a scumtell, b/c people process the game in weird ways sometimes and someone can seem

off

despite having different takes

and him feeling like you weren't providing reasons against him is likely an ego thing rather than a scum thing where hes intentionally misrepresenting you - this is not inherently a towntell either i think he just hasn't been wanting to accept your read as valid regardless of alignment. (if that makes sense? i hope it does)

i get the same feeling looking at you aguing against his case on you - i think he's way off base on you but it looks more like someone who just doesn't understand how you play. and that can easily come from town.


you are not going to like this but to me it looks like an ego clash. i could, of course, be wrong - i make no claims to being brilliant at the game. im mainly just saying from my experience with mena this looks like town-him. maybe im wrong and hes playing in a way specifically to pocket the people who have played with him before, but i think a lot of what he has been saying this phase makes sense from the perspective of town who is very frustrated at being misread. and i think him gunning for you so strongly is very likely an indicator that its a real read he believes in and he wants listened to if he has to get flipped in this game.



idk if any of this is good substantive enough to provide an alternative perspective for you but i can try talking things over if you'd like - this is obviously a LOT for me to take in in a very short time period an i'm trying my bset. if i die today please try to keep my perspective in mind.

[bloodhail]

not sure what u mean by this?
i'm a little concerned that the read on me is somewhat flat and easy

not my fault you're an easy read lmao

dats-roden-nk15 with some paranoia on u

see: i think both roden and nk15 are explicitly less likely

because unless aristeia is pulling out a level 90 wifom card, she doesnt out that nk15 has a meta of borderline throwing as scum because then if she dies people always flip nk15??

and i also think she doesnt out that mala has severe scum burnout and can barely play it if shes teamed with mala - this isnt necessarily strong in and of itself, but mala reacted in a way that felt like she was legit annoyed because she doesnt like being seen as polarized and it didnt look partnery.


and if you think she's with me or datisi, then you should basically always flip one of us first rather than ari b/c we have more potential partners than ari

[bloodhail]

@bloodhail why do u think scum-dats has been townreading mena so vociferously?
Also what do u think abt the fact that he gave v similar reasons to townread mena as u just did ... ?

because mena is an omgussy boy and he doesnt want to get on his bad side. (that's how i played around mena as scum, lol)

the reasoning for mena-town is more or less accurate. that doesnt matter a ton to me. scum can give reasoning for townreads that is true and accurate because they have perfect info.

[bloodhail]

bloodhail, do you think there's any merit to the argument that mena's cases aren't strong enough to justify his level of frustration/confidence?

wondering cause im not like super confident in it but it is kind of a sticking point for me atm

(references: 1794, 1796, and 1797 I talk about this, 1558, 1744, 1746, 1767 are examples of the kind of attitude i was talking about from him)

i think you're making a very basic mistake here

what you are calling out is that mena's expressed confidence level in his

read

does not match the strength of the

case

presented

the thing is, a case is only words someone puts together to try to make a read understandable to other people but the read is something that you develop before you put any words to it. that he is unable to explain it adequately doesn't make him scum. and i don't necessarily feel like the read feels like scum-flail as much as someone wrapped up in an ego clash (biased because i've ego clashed with him multiple times before)


i see what you're saying and, like, it's entirely possible that this is him putting on a show as scum but. that's not how i lean on it. when i've seen him as scum with his back against the wall it was bluster and stalling and not even really being able to manufacture a push on town. this looks more real. could be off base but thats my assessment. if i have time i'll reread him to be sure.

[bloodhail]

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

you do realize i am suggesting

you

are the most likely partner, right

anyway i hold no secrets

[bloodhail]

uhhhh ... see prior examples where i was decidedly not an easy read for you?
and i don't think you've had a chance to read me properly since then, no?

i am half trolling you because it's fun, but i was going to turn against you in panic room before i got the rug pulled from under me. i decidedly do not get the same feeling from you here.

like, eh, maybe i'm wrong and dumb and letting myself get owned by you again, but if i'm right i get to lmao to the graveyard by reading you easily while you get me wrong again, and that is extremely funny to me

like ig why am i not scum who's just townreading mena to get on his good side and why isn't dats just town who knows how to read mena properly?

you just feel genuine in your scumhunting and he does not

that's probably an unsatisfying answer but i'm not too intent on proving myself to you here given time constraints - would rather you just flip me if you feel it's necessary and then consider my reads

[bloodhail]

I'm writing his scumcase in a word doc but let's imagine we're scum!mena for a minute, and look at our options when we enter the thread ~48 hours(? Can't remember exactly) after D2 starts.

> try to lim datisi? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim skitter? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim aristeia? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim irrelephant? And look like one of the worst OMGUS's in a long time?

Hm. Realistically the lim will probably be inside the coalition, but if I can get the heat off me for a minute maybe one of them will look bad. Not to mention, if I can take someone (anyone) down before I go down, that's 1/3 of the way to a win. So let me think if there's anyone else limmable:

> try to lim nk15? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim malakittens? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim fireisredsir? Doesn't everyone think fire is town? Doubt this gets any traction and gains me an enemy where I currently don't have an enemy
> try to lim std? Enough people scumread him that he didn't make it into the coalition, maybe I could get votes there. At the very least it fits with what I've posted previously in a way that is town. PLUS he's coming for me so I kinda need to discredit him so people don't listen to him. Keeps an enemy where I have an enemy, nothing lost there. Yeah this is the best of 8 sucky options

Gamestate reasons that point to menalque

Spoiler: Scum is in the coalition

---> this is obvious, but is a reason why there’s no point in thinking about scumreads outside the coalition. Therefore, I’m ruling out voting for four players until I see a red flip.

Spoiler: Scum voted for the coalition

---> I think I’m the only one who has suggested this, but I find it extremely unlikely that fire or nk15 are the only scum who voted for it and skitter is the singular scum (and, from anyone else’s POV, that I’m the singular scum) in the coalition. It’s just like a mislim in any other setup, it furthered scum’s wincon so scum almost certainly voted for it, though maybe not both.

---> For this reason, I think scum!skitter’s partner must be fireisredsir or notknown15.

---> This also suggests it’s pretty likely that menalque, datisi, or aristeia is scum

Spoiler: Some players got their preferred coalition and some didn’t

this is a little galaxy-brain of me so be warned it might kill your desire to keep reading my post.

---> This might sound like the last point, but it’s distinct. There were two viable coalitions at EOD1. Skitter, std, and I wanted std in. aristeia, datisi, fire, nk15 and menalque wanted menalque in. malakittens didn’t vote for either. This matters because I believe std to be town, and he was left out. In a world where std and menalque are both town, I think the std coalition would have hammered. In that world:
>>>>>> scum!datisi wouldn’t have objected to std so strongly because std was easier for him to mislim than menalque
>>>>>> scum!aristeia would have continued being accommodating to me/skitter and let it be std to blame us when it failed
>>>>>> scum!skitter is unlikely to get so lucky that a counterwagon appears and goes through without her vote

---> But if menalque is scum, the shift in momentum is obvious: to get menalque into the coalition.

Spoiler: Scum felt comfortable day 1 (disclaimer: weak point)

--->In the two games I’ve played of coalition, a way that scum became obvious in those games was a slight undertone of desperation when it seemed likely that town was on its way to forming a coalition without them. The only player I felt that from in this game was fireisredsir, which was a reason I thought he was scum for awhile. But I don’t think fireisredsir would feel desperate on behalf if partnered with any of players in the coalition, since it was consensus from pretty early on that 5 of me/std/aristeia/datisi/skitter/menalque would probably make the coalition. So scum never felt desperate. Well gee how is that helpful since like I just said the reads were mostly consensus all game. Well I personally think it’s a good reason to townread aristeia, who like me offered to stay out of the coalition with fire (I meant it so maybe I’m projecting but I think she meant it too). The more I think about this point… the less impactful it feels. Do with it what you will.

Leaving this because it was a reason I had until I wrote this post and I guess that’s useful info:

Spoiler: Low posters are usually scum and top posters are usually town in this setup. Proof:

- scum were #5 & #6 posters

- scum were #2 and #9 posters

- shoot another one where scum included the #2 poster, I guess maybe this isn’t a good point

- and another where scum were #1 and #4, alright nvm I concede the point. I guess it was based on my experience only, and is dumb

Menalque’s play itself

Spoiler: generally, a lack of townreads

---> As I outlined in 518, scum have to play this setup kind of awkwardly. While it’s usually useful to get some townies pocketed by handing out townreads, it’s much more dangerous during the coalition stage of this setup, because oops you made townies townread each other and now they’ve coalition’d without you.

---> Meanwhile, I think town enjoy this setup because it’s all about finding fellow townies. We quickly heal because yay found one, we quickly hurt because ~wait~uh~oh~paranoia~ and then heal someone else. This is anecdotal but I think holds up better upon reviewing multiple coalition games than my point about low posters.

--->Menalque does not do the townie-looking-for-townies thing, like at all. By 137 he had a single read (compare to 138 where datisi has a full coalition) – me as town. By 415 he has not shared any further reads, with the minor exception of 272 where he hints he might be okay with datisi being in a coalition. 416 he heals me and datisi. 455 (455????) he shares a readslist where every single read is town-but-heavily-hedging, null, or scum.

---> In 272 he suggests 5 players shouldn’t be townreads for ari yet, without explaining why any of them might be scum or helping to sort them at all. Just feels like he’s pushing townies down in general

Spoiler: questions that go nowhere

---> Relly, why are you getting paranoid of skit? (followed by explaining why I shouldn’t be townreading skitter)

---> @nk15 could you please say in your own words what you mean by Ari being thrown of balance (followed by asking it multiple times, escalating to threatening to yeet NK15 about it, then ignoring NK15 this game day despite never getting an answer)

Spoiler: strange things that are NAI at best

---> WIFOM-towncasing himself in posts 145 and 146.

---> scumreading ari/fire based on a secret ari tell he refused to explain

---> Refusing to explain why datisi was townish in earlygame until late d1, and the explanation was “datisi, when you asked about the list earlier, the reason you were an exception wasn't bc I was TRing you at that point, but more because I objected more to everyone else than to you, but didn't want to elaborate as I wanted to allow some more natural interactions to play out w/out me influencing them” (???)

Spoiler: trajectory on std

go read std’s posts on the topic

I didn't even write everything, but I came close, and I can't. Play mafia any harder than this. So this is what you get, take it or lim me, I guess

yall think this is scum??? WILD

i didnt even see this post before i replaced in but like. cmon.

[bloodhail]

So if u flip town here you'd want us to flip dats tom?

@bloodhail

yeah. only had a few hours of reading but i have enough meta on all of you that i'm reasonably confident in the read and if i get one called shot in the game, that would be it

i do want to reread menalque to cover my bases on him but other than that, i feel secure enough in you as town and ari as town, and i think std and fire are almost always town here

[bloodhail]

I think he's just trying to get me mislimmed before he goes down. If he comes for me, he can maybe get 1/3 of the way to a scum win. Anyone else and he just goes down

Like the push on me is so so opportunistic. Meanwhile I've burned all my towncred making this case and it still might not go through?

Anyone see town!mena telling me to self-vote, please link me to the last time he did. 100% AtE to get one mislim in before I take him down

this is like, classic town committed to an ego tunnel

Ari I have to say that the idea you might vote me today because you’re trying to avoid unpleasantness with mena freaking sucks (I don’t swear but insert swear words mentally if that helps you get how I feel). I’ve played this game so hard for town, like so so so hard. Hours of my life that nobody asked for but that I am putting in because I think I’ve caught scum and don’t feel heard. Vote me if you scumread me. Don’t you dare vote me to appease mena.

The long post that I wrote and lost twice was weirdly similar to menalque’s above posts

Here’s the summary: I’m pretty angry. I want to confine those emotions to one post for game pleasantness.

Datisi, stop being lazy about sorting between me and Menalque.

Skitter, if you’re going to vote me make the scumcase. Right now it seems like you’re voting me just because I’m doing everything I can to get a mena lim (when I could have come into today confused and waiting for a lim to present itself - this is a reason youre townreading mena, remember?). Ive been angry and direct and, fypov, manipulative. I’ve seen you scumread shoshin for the same moves and you know I like how she plays. Consider my motivations, not just my most recent posts towards you pls.

Aristeia, vote me if you’re scum or you think I’m scum. Don’t vote me to avoid an argument or something, because you know I’ve put blood sweat and tears into this game.

Fire, you’re the only one besides std and I who seems to see that anything mena is doing is scummy. Consider why you and std are basically being ignored and I’m collecting votes for making a push you (at least sort of) agree with. Please appeal to those you think are town a little louder, if it’s something you believe in.

I get that I’ve put myself into this 1v1 but I’m so mad that multiple players seem to be shrugging instead of sorting us. I feel so unheard and I can’t tell who’s scum but I’m very upset about the general way this game day has gone because I really thought I came into the day confident on a read and making the case as best I could and now I feel like mena’s couple of “don’t you dare” posts is going to win the day because it satisfies some meta expectation of mena. This just sucks.

Angry pity party over (and this is the short version lol)

this is like. so obviously genuine. he's tilted because he thinks people are refusing to scumread menalque due to being friends with him. i guess there are worlds where you can see this as scum salt because they can't get their preferred mis-elim but i think it shines through as fairly genuine (but i am biased)


i don't think him taking a reflexive stepback is scummy i actually think not many players attempt that maneuver as scum

I did think it was scummy that ari’s single strong, non-sheep argument all game long is that skitter is wrong and bad for voting her. I’d kind of forgotten but isn’t it sort of scummy that her only emphatic push could be read as self-defense? @datisi

Petit: I’m just continuing mena’s argument that seemed reasonable I have no idea if skitter is town

are any of your reads not based in meta?

Have you ever seen scum!ari, Datisi? I thought she said she’s only rolled town before

But like maybe acknowledge that you don’t know how scum!ari would play this setup and decide if scum motivations match her actions here without regard for her username? Is my request

and this again is someone who seems to be cracking a bit because every time he scumreads someone he gets a meta shield dropped in front of him. again you can try and squint and call it scum but. you'd be wrong. dude was just trying to solve and hated getting smacked down all the time

[bloodhail]

this stuff was @ skitter asking me why i thought irrelephant was towny

[bloodhail]

However if we do get a red Datisi flip, logically I don't see why you'd bus here

uhh bro did u even click that link cmon. everyone is going to yell at you that i would absolutely bus so i'll do it first

I will say though that if I were partners with Datisi here, I wouldn't be distancing from him or fighting against the leading wagons. In that scenario, I have an extremely easy mis-elim chain of Elephant -> Mena -> STD/NK, and Ari would be so deeply pocketed that even if I got voted out, Datisi is still practically guaranteed to win in ELo. Me not taking that path and instead resisting it should indicate that we aren't partners, as I would've just voted Elephant and let Datisi hammer.

i mean like

in this scenario datisi is deep and not sacrificing his thread position for the sake of a day 1 elim (and any sudden hammer there is pretty bad) so i don't find this super compelling but if i'm wrong i'm wrong, my highest priority was reading within the coalition

[bloodhail]

okay so: i think the first half of menalque's iso is pretty towny. i think the thing that happened was the classic read entropy thing, where he was v/la when the coalition got hammered and failed, and people started suspecting him for being inactive because that's how mafia games go - people just get paranoid of whoever isn't talking at that exact moment

i think in particular him making the reactive omgus push on std is, like, always town - as scum he'd be more goal oriented and i think he knows a wagon outside the coalition isn't happening, and like i said it reads like a classic ego push thing (and im not trying to be condescending here i am recognizing this behavior because i often do it myself). i dont think he goes all-in trying to bury StD with a wall as scum to get townread because i dont think he has that confidence level in his play. it just reads a lot like...someone who doesn't get std's playstyle and thinks it's scummy. i mean i can see scum trying to push him because the playstyle can make him limbaity (i know because i did it myself!) but...he should know that that flip is not

happening

. i find it more likely that his read there is genuine even tho i do not agree with it.

[bloodhail]

okay i finished rereading menalque's iso and he is extremely town

you can laugh at me for being a scrub at this game if im wrong but i really wouldnt flip him ever

i dont have time for a towncase i just feel it in my bones

[bloodhail]

i hadn't anticipated the necessity of actually reading everyone outside the coalition but might get to that juuust in case if i have time tonight, although i dont really anticipate being able to sort nk15 with any degree of confidence

[bloodhail]

I understand why you don't quite believe that Datisi and I aren't partners though, you've had trouble reading me in the past and I'm taking that into account.

i mean it's way less things to do with ~you~ in particular (aside from that one post toward datisi) and more associations i have gleaned from reading other people's isos + generally having townreads on other people + agreeing with the meta on mala having scum burnout

[bloodhail]

maybe it really is just Datisi getting derptunneled by NK15

i think dats taking the time to argue against the possibility of that specific team is very minorly unaligning although certainly not something i'd bet the game on

[bloodhail]

maybe it really is just Datisi getting derptunneled by NK15

i think dats taking the time to argue against the possibility of that specific team is very minorly unaligning although certainly not something i'd bet the game on

it's such a weird time for roden to bus his partner if datisi is mafia with him?

I can't see a world where datisi flips today - is scum, and scum roden survives to win?

between the two of them they have enough votes to flip you - I don't see the point of taking the risk of bussing here.

i mean if im a replacement coming in with the exact solve the choices are to either bury me and hope people ignore my legacy or bus and then nk me and hope to sweep it under the rug. neither is exactly comfy but they both look like hell in option 1 where option 2 gives maybe a chance to scrape by. just a thought tho, i might have something more concrete after reading mala/nk15

[bloodhail]

maybe it really is just Datisi getting derptunneled by NK15

i think dats taking the time to argue against the possibility of that specific team is very minorly unaligning although certainly not something i'd bet the game on

it's such a weird time for roden to bus his partner if datisi is mafia with him?

I can't see a world where datisi flips today - is scum, and scum roden survives to win?

between the two of them they have enough votes to flip you - I don't see the point of taking the risk of bussing here.

i mean if im a replacement coming in with the exact solve the choices are to either bury me and hope people ignore my legacy or bus and then nk me and hope to sweep it under the rug. neither is exactly comfy but they both look like hell in option 1 where option 2 gives maybe a chance to scrape by. just a thought tho, i might have something more concrete after reading mala/nk15

i think they can just vote you off here

enforce bop on mena tomm

and at elo its anyones game cuz nk15 gives 0 shits

i mean, eh. 1884 looked like he was possibly angling to vote my slot before it became inopportune to do so


i read nk15s iso and as expected i have like no clue how to read the guy - the stuff he's saying reads like hot nonsense but he's so all over the place it might be real?? but he should still probably always be in the poe. i would not comfortably bet the game on him being town. i'll take a look at mala tonight and see if i get anything from her

[bloodhail]

i actually think mala reads kind of towny on iso, lmao

maybe it is in fact nk15

[bloodhail]

she has way more fire here than what ive seen of her scumgames

[bloodhail]

why am i not surprised at all at this turn of events

2034 is a lol post because he was accusing me of "wow, datisi going on the defensive and not bothering to determine whether i'm incorrect is a scum response!!" but when *i* ask why he doesn't seem willing to have a conversation and is shutting me out, it's "i don't think that would get us anywhere achkcually sorry"

if skitter is scum then she is the scum in the coalition and her not doing enough to get STD in is...entirely irrelevant. it does not change the gamestate AT ALL if STD is in coalition or out of coalition in skitter-scum worlds. I would think Datisi is sharp enough to realize this. the idea he posits is that skitter would have done more as town but is really just making the presumption that town always plays optimally or ideally and that's just not true. people are timid sometimes. it does not make them scum. skitter is often indecisive as town. i dont think this is a genuine suspicion on datisis part.

this is not my argument. this was never my argument. i KNOW town!skitter can be indecisive as town. i've seen it happen. i don't think it's very ai for skitter to be decisive or indecisive. i know townies are sometimes lazy i'm often lazy like holy fuck.

my point was that skitter's actions pre-coalition and post-coalition do not fucking track. she did very little to get std in and kept mentioning how she'd maybe sorta kinda be okay with ari in.

this by itself is not a problem

. the problem is when she does that, AND THEN after the coalition fails she goes on a rant about how she really really wanted std in and woe is her we didn't let her get her preferred coalition when she fought for it so hard and she wanted to keep ari out at all costs.

like, i didn't want to say it at the time to not tip skitter off to what i was thinking but i thought that had a lot of scum motivation if she's scum with std. keep saying how scum probably wants both partners inside, get him out the coalition, he's safe while she gets to push others. who would've seen it coming because she's bus happy and by the time she flips red it's not going to matter.

hell, if she isn't his partner, that could've been a setup for a time after she flips. maybe she thought ari was easier to flip than std. i don't know the exact scum motivation because i am not a mind reader. but i saw something that had good potential of being scummy and i wanted to question it.

see i dont buy this thinking at all sorry dude

[bloodhail]

bloodhail

i thought it was obvious

before you ask, i'm not voting him because that puts him at y-1 and i'm trying to give people time to react to the current events without worry about a lolhammer

[bloodhail]

misconstructs my argument that i had already explained prior

"doesn't buy the thinking" when i'm forced to explain it again

okay

i do not think we're gonna get anywhere with this datisi, i don't think getting into the weeds over this is helpful. i'm sorry if this is too dismissive but, like, i probably get yeeted here, me going back and forth with you over my read on you just seems like a huge waste of time



if i am wrong on you i am sorry for being a clown who is bad at mafia. but from where i am sitting you seem like the most likely scum in the coalition and nothing you've said has swayed me

[bloodhail]

i am 75 posts into fire's iso and feel okayish about him being town still although this is significantly more dense than the others so it might take me some time to get through

[bloodhail]

like I kind of recognize it's possible that bh!scum decided to amplify my paranoia on your slot and just straight up kamikaze you to get out of the 1v1 with mena that he's likely losing

but he's kind of screaming that you're mafia and you're not being very forceful and it's easy to be influenced by someone who is just loud and seems to not care about being flipped.

but im supposed to be scary ooooo

[bloodhail]

i think fire is

probably

just town who is very, very wrong about the game. there is a possibility i am getting rolled here b/c it's not as easy for me to understand his perspective but my lean off speedreading and some brief interaction is that he's being genuine. the confidence level isnt as high as it is with std (never ever yeet std this game) but wouldn't really evaluate him before f3

[bloodhail]

fire im a little confused as to whether you think my slot or menalque is more likely to be scum at this present moment in time

[bloodhail]

considering that he's pointing out reasons that make me scum then not acknowledging the responses, and that he's trying to get townread by ~solving~, it seems to me like he is trying to not get flipped but what do i know

i have nothing to hide, datisi. being flipped does not concern me. i'm not one to give up as either alignment (unless it's totally hopeless) because that's how i learned to play the game but my number one priority right now is simply getting my views out.

[bloodhail]

okay so: in general i think fireisredsir looks very genuine in terms of solving and process and the like this game. my concern is mostly that the scumreads he's advancing have likely been pro-scum because i don't think he's right on me or menalque. but people can be wrng so it's not like it's damning, i'm just not fully confident in the read here. still probably would not kill. you'll have to see how he adjusts down the line when he's forced to re-evaluate. gun to my head he's town tho


ydrasse didn't announce an extension and honestly i don't need one, i've blitzed through everything i need to read this game. otherwise we have 8 hours, feel free to AMA before we decide to end the day. hopefully i've made my reads clear enough

[bloodhail]

fire im a little confused as to whether you think my slot or menalque is more likely to be scum at this present moment in time

IDK MAN ME TOO

im all blues no clues

that

feels like it shouldnt be a hard question to answer lol

[bloodhail]

but then datisi comes back and idk i thought his responses this last page were towny and made good points as to why he is unlikely to be scum on first reaction

he's very good at arguing but in general it mostly looked like him puffing up his chest and going this is ridiculous i can't be scum because xyz i would be doing this differently and that fits with what ive seen of him as scum. didnt really sway my mind

[bloodhail]

i mean it's funny that bh is saying how i was just arguing about why i'm not scum when that was what the conversation was about, and he was the one that decided not to actually talk to me and re-evaluate

my point i guess is you're way more wrapped up in self-defense than trying to find scum, imo

i don't need to argue with you over why i'm reading you as scum or why you're super sure i'm scum, that gets us nowhere

[bloodhail]

VOTE: bloodhail

Y-1

part of me still does not want to make this vote, because if he really is a confbiased townie, then i'll get instamurdered tomorrow and good luck solving that yeetlo. but here we are i guess.

idk bro

sounds a lil performative to me

if im wrong on you then it falls to you to figure the game out after i die

i don't think i am wrong though

[bloodhail]

final marching orders:

datisi > nk 15 > roden (if datisi red)

i went and took a look at spring fling and realized i mught be selling mala short although she seemed to have a little more forcefulness in her reads this game than in that one. i do think the interactions between them are a little bit weird although i've often been led astray by that. (and on reflection i entirely think roden's play makes sense if he's posturing to endgame here)


if i'm wrong on datisi i apologize for sucking at the game and don't have the ego to dictate a vote in f5, so good luck

[bloodhail]

not going to self, will hang around to talk for the next few hours if people have questions

will hammer myself at 1 hour to deadline if there's no movement

[bloodhail]

Sup

yes

if he's town that thinks he's going to die, why say "you have to solve the game tomorrow" at me? he has cemented that he wants me dead if he flips green

like, if he told others that they have to kill me, that makes sense, but why say that to me

i am saying that if i am wrong on you, then you are the person whose perspective is most vital to figuring the game out. i think this is fairly simple to understand?


i am already dead you don't gotta keep shoveling dirt on me lmao

[bloodhail]

I have to bake stuff for tomorrow but I’m still not willing to leave the house so I’m here for a sec

i'm at e-1 idk if you wanna comment on any of the stuff i've said since replace in, feel free to skim my iso

[bloodhail]

i am saying that if i am wrong on you, then you are the person whose perspective is most vital to figuring the game out. i think this is fairly simple to understand?

and i am saying that i'm going to die if you're green and nobody is actually going to give a shit about anything i say.

@skitt, i wish i could be 100% that he's scum. i'm feeling anxiety about the vote because if he does die today and turns out green, tomorrow is going to be pain and yeetlo is going to be difficult.

don't understand the woe is me mentality dude

if im wrong on you just give it your best shot that's all you can do

the pre-emptive wailing and moaning about how it's gonna be hard just makes it looks like you know i'm flipping town and want to have a defense set up

[bloodhail]

if im wrong on you just give it your best shot that's all you can do

oh gee, it's almost like i don't enjoy being misexecuted!! who would've thought that's a trait that i have!!

okay?

again spinning in this direction does very little to convince me you're not scum

[bloodhail]

maybe Mena is just a sane human being enjoying a nice friday night out and I'm just a degenerate psycho who cares too much i dunno.

I am so conflicted.

I will vote wherever i need to to get a flip in around 2 hours and I am happy to talk about anything before then because I don't have a social life.

i get what you're saying and the concern makes sense. i'm not sure him being quiet right now is zomg lockscum though

[bloodhail]

bloodhail is wrong decently often and exaggerates (if unintentionally at times) their confidence

i would like to think ive hedged my bets decently this game tyvm

[bloodhail]

don't say cfd thanks

[bloodhail]

don't say cfd thanks

?

it's really racist dude


just use the good old fashioned flashwagon

[bloodhail]

i don't feel comfortable with a wagon lurching back onto menalque here, i really don't, even if his reason for sticking to voting me is kind of blah

[bloodhail]

You’re attempting to redirect the wagon back towards me for what I think are very poor reasons and if bloodhail is town then you’ve also been fencesitting and allowing a t/t conflict to play out most of the day

I don’t see why you would be doing differently as scum here when you’re not in any danger and the more slots you can keep viable going into D2/D3 the better for you

3 people have said my reasons are very valid and they can't all be scum with me

People being wrong, especially when one of those people, if town, has been tunnelled on me for most of the day, is not unexpected

don't say cfd thanks

?

it's really racist dude


just use the good old fashioned flashwagon

I’m not aware of how but sure, and I guess I’ll look into it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_f ... ll#Origins

Historians trace Westerners' use of the word Chinese to denote "confusion" and "incomprehensibility" to the earliest contacts between Europeans and Chinese people in the 1600s, and attribute it to Europeans' inability to understand China's radically different culture and world view.[5] In his 1989 Dictionary of Invective, British editor Hugh Rawson lists 16 phrases that use the word Chinese to denote "incompetence, fraud and disorganization".[6]

bad stuff. i don't like fighting over it elsewhere but it's not a regular part of the MS vernacular and shouldn't be

[bloodhail]

i am really supreme uncomfortable at the prospect of the wagon swinging off my top scumread and me having to go through this dance again day 2

i want people to either kill me today or just clear me because the one place i cannot stand to be is alive and perpetually stuck in the poe while getting the freezeout. i cannot live through that nonsense again

[bloodhail]

*supremely

[bloodhail]

Ugh i see a lot has happened and i'm like super busy can someone just give me a quick tldr?

ari started pushing menalque because she got paranoid of how he was playing and menalque pushed ari in response

[bloodhail]

okay fucking stop this right now

[bloodhail]

this is unnecessary and it's going to get bad and i do not want that, that is not why i joined

[bloodhail]

VOTE: bloodhail

i do not want to have to dangle by a thread for multiple day phases because people can't make up their mind on my alignment


if you pivot off me to kill town that i am townreading then pendulum swing back onto me that is just an outright throw

this is the only day i will do this. if you want to resolve this slot's alignment, do it NOW.

[bloodhail]

none of this is even game relevant anymore, stop

[bloodhail]

It’s game relevant because the last time I caught ari as scum her response was to rapidly shift into attacking my general abilities as a player and launching personal attacks

I think this is a behaviour which comes from her as scum and not as town because she feels that it’s acceptable to behave like this when it’s serving her wincon, and therefore is strongly scum indicative for her

i dont think that is an exclusively scum behavior for ari, and in fact i know it isn't

[bloodhail]

look BH

I am not really interested in talking to mena anymore this game

he has crossed my line of "giving a shit"

if you want me to treat him as IC, tell me and I will do that for you.

I won't even care if we lose to scum!him I promise I won't hold it against you.

Let's just get this game over with I have nothing to say to him that will be productive.

im sorry i get that this is tilting but i dont see it as scum and it sucks having it happen


idfk what to do about this exactly

[bloodhail]

VOTE: bloodhail

i do not want to have to dangle by a thread for multiple day phases because people can't make up their mind on my alignment


if you pivot off me to kill town that i am townreading then pendulum swing back onto me that is just an outright throw

this is the only day i will do this. if you want to resolve this slot's alignment, do it NOW.

i don't really want to vote you though (either today or tomorrow most likely, if we flip mena and he's town i would prob go to datisi) but i think mena is more likely scum than datisi rn so

like ik the prospect of not resolving this today is not pleasant for you but fmpov if you are wrongtown (which is possible) then you and datisi just get flipped and we are in a shit spot

but idk w/e we should prob just end day for sanity's sake it's just hard for me

by the same token it's equally devastating for me if people pivot off me and i'm right given i will find myself likely to be fighting the same battle

so it goes both ways

i just want commitment on me rather than people waffling and shelving me for later

if you want to go on record saying you don't think it's me, then, cool

[bloodhail]

What's the count

[3] bloodhail: Not Known 15, Datisi, bloodhail

[2] Datisi: Roden, Aristeia

[1] menalque: fireisredsir

[1] Aristeia: Menalque

[2] Not Voting: skitter30, Save the Dragons

my unofficial vc

[bloodhail]

not surprise hammering or anything, still here

[bloodhail]

i'm gonna end it since it seems nothing useful is going to be said from here on out

[bloodhail]

okay

VOTE: datisi


i'm probably going to afk for dinner soon


my reads as stated haven't changed much

if i'm wrong on datisi i'd rather just eat shit and not think about it, no step 2 from me (not that i'd be NKed in that event regardless)

[bloodhail]

incredibly sorry if i am wrong and hijacked things with my selfishness

[bloodhail]

uh lol

[bloodhail]

i mean that slot was very likely hardspewed town regardless but still

was kind of looking forward to getting night killed and not rereading tbh :<

same tbh

[bloodhail]

ANYWAY std iso

101 i dislike because it's a v easy way to get onto what's popular at the time. also the explanations for the votes are kinda lackluster because the description of my 37 is very uncharitable and "skitter seems to be solving" is like, such a low bar to place for someone like skitter

then, his vote of mena for 145/146. maybe it's me who's used to mena's sense of humour and writing style and those posts seemed very normal to me. (in fact they were a bit of a positive sign after the first few posts which felt way too boring but anyway.) std immediately jumping onto that feels like scum who saw a townie acting wacky and decided to try to spin them into looking bad, i.e. performative, because the words that they wrote were level-zero-thinking bad. like, i usually find that town is more likely to critically think about *why* mena would write something that maybe looks weird while scum is more likely to try to make it seem bad because that is their job description. yes i'm aware std later said he misunderstood or changed his mind or whatever no i still don't like it.

the rest of his iso is also... kinda boring. like, a bunch of it is joking around or arguing theory with mena. like, afair i don't think std usually puts out a lot of content as town or rather not a lot of "serious, well structured content", but there's usually some sorta thought process i can follow and here i don't think i can follow a lot of it. not sure if i could explain the reason of one read he had.

like, again, page 15 48 hours but it's not a Great look.

i feel that both irrel and std are some sorta vibe townreads for the majority of the game, and either my vibe radar is broken or they're getting read for nonsense reasons and idk which and mafia is a fuck

so i didn't go into this fully yesterday but one of the things that tipped me off on datisi was this about how he played the coalition stage:

it looked like he was systematically trying to weaken townreads on players like relly and std - as compared to everyone else who was trying to assemble a towncore, he loooked to be putting doubt on players as a means of making himself more likely to be included in the coalition

i don't think he pre-emptively tries to keep his partner out of the coalition if they're getting townread and i want to say this makes STD town (i think in general STD is, like, way way outside his scumrange this game but additional evidence helps)

[bloodhail]

I dont think its fire at all

so my thought process was:

I think the partner should be off-coalition and not on your original coalition for dats to ate me into dragging him into your coalition

which leaves [fire, mala, nk15]

and I don't think dats has the wim to work that hard if he was partnered with either mala or nk15

which leaves fire

i dont think datisi mails it in regardless of who his partner is

i dont think fire is impossible but let's analyze a bit more thoroughly

[bloodhail]

i mean that slot was very likely hardspewed town regardless but still

was kind of looking forward to getting night killed and not rereading tbh :<

same tbh

You're probably alive because you said you wanted to elim me next. Tbh you likely would've died if Mena hadn't replaced out since he was tunneled on town slots.

i had nk15 ahead of you in my poe - there are things that make me doubt it being him but now that i have more time to analyze i can give people consideration

i think regardless the important thing is we figure out people who aren't likely to be mafia, as long as we trust in our townreads assembling a winning poe here should not be too hard

[bloodhail]

Spoiler: dats talking about mala

good morning friends!!

v/la tuesdays and wednesdays

- uni is hell on these days. i see the *extremely* short deadline for the coalition however so i will do my best to at least check in on my phone during these days if need be

HEAL: datisi
HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: malakittens
HEAL: aristeia

fire reads kinda tonally the same as he did last game. yes i did misread him that game shut up. i have a probably very horrible reason for a townping on malakittens. and i was always gonna heal ari anyway but i do genuinely like the callout in 26 to keep an eye on the deadline.

VOTE: aristeia <3

ari, why do you think fire is mafia?

hello i am alive

i will be reading through what i missed properly in a bit, but there are two things i wanna cover right away

re 224:

(1) i healed malakittens because 8 is a post that i don't think? scum makes if they have a pregame chat with their partner and either one of them has bothered to plan ahead. because afair recent coalition games usually started with "hello i am healing a random group of people" not "i am voting for a random person". and someone who went to check previous games would probably remember that.

if you're now thinking "wow that's bullshit, scum can be lazy and not check previous games for meta", yes, absolutely! which is why it's a townping based on a single post on page 1 rather than a read set in stone!

(2) irrel: enters the game saying how he's haha so town while doing nothing that a townie entering the game would be doing
also irrel: why am i being questioned

yes, i get that this section is probably(?) criticizing me for my vocabulary choice and not the substance of the question. but it gives me a way to introduce my reasoning for the third point so i am taking it while making fun of the criticism because i'm pretty sure irrel can also see it's not a very good point.

(3) boy oh boy.

first, i don't do second hand meta cases. i know you've never played with me so it's very unlikely you know this, but i've said this multiple times over in the past.

then, the reason why i almost decided you were "just scum" was because you entered that game and had some sorta game-related action within a minute of entering. while here, you entered the game with "wow look at me i sure did roll town in this game" and then nothing for a while.

the *reason* why seeing you start at post 900 was that it made me realize that, oh shit, you were a replacement that game, therefore there was much more content in that game once you started playing in it than in this one, and you could've been reading the game yourself before you repped in, which is all variables that i cannot control and do not care to control therefore it's easier to just dump my case in the trash.

what did you think was my point here anyway? that i arbitrarily decided to trash my case because you just so happened to be a replacement that game?

i didn't like save the dragons's read on mena on pages 7/8, it felt more like trying to find something Weird to attack rather than actually having a read on something that makes someone scum

i can see and agree on ari's points in 177 but my read on fire is usually bad and i don't have too many townreads reads otherwise so i am not like, Convinced yet

datis is prob town
ari feels town as well.

HEAL: datis
HEAL: ari

idk about skitter,
i'm very bad about reading std
i dont have much exp with fire

mmm
this reminds me of like, lazy scum-mala i guess

the first thing that jumps out at me is the "i don't have much exp with fire" because i know mala's exp with me is one (1) game where we were both scum and i don't think the discussion about fire was so much about past experiences compared to discussion about other people that it warranted to mention specifically for him that she doesn't have experience

that sentence is a mess but it boils down to "explain pls"

190 does make me feel that ari is town, or rather it solidifies my read a bit more - it makes sense both with what happened in this game and in prior games and yeah

@ari why do u think fire gives me a townread and hedges a scumread on you
Kf anything i kinda feel like scum-him would do the opposite
(I am very prone to getting pocketed, yes yes yes)

correct me if i'm wrong, but this post kind of makes it sould like scum!fire would *have* to give one townread and one scumread in {aristeia, skitter}, so my q is why

and also like, why do you think fire would be likely to townread you here? i don't think he's familiar with your prone-ness to getting pocketed or whatever

200 from fire is a bit oof though

like i recall that fire said he wanted to wait for everyone to post before healing, but like, (1) mala had posted before (this point is pedantry tho so whatever) but (2) what about mala's 178 is something that makes you wanna heal her

done with page 9 and i'm tired and i'll be back in a bit

i think i'm at, like

i don't want mala or nk15 in the coalition - i feel like this setup, coupled with the extremely short deadline, can feel very demoralizing for scum if they don't get onto the train early and that makes sense from both of them. i think it's fairly unlikely they're both scum because games are almost never that easy but i would be somewhat surprised if they were both town. i guess nk15 is slightly townier than mala buh meh.

fire is kinda missing his usual fire (hehe) and while i did like the way we lowkey mindmelded on irrel yesterday night i'm wondering if that's enough. the posts i'm reading from him on the previous page feel like reads pulled out of random.org. like i don't get why he has them or that he actually believes in them or how he arrived at them and etc.

so i'm left with me/mena/skitt/ari and one of std or irrel? bleh maybe they're both town and i'm not giving enough credit to The Vibes but also time is short

why did i join this game

I promise that I am town but I think I might be able to exert more influence off-coalition if there is a failure and I really don't feel comfortable getting pushed for having a good scum game.

:<

from my experience playing and modding this setup, i feel like it's much more +ev for town to just add people who are town into the coalition rather than try to calculate an optimal coalition for solving the game for if/when it fails.

assuming me/skitt/mena/irrel will be 4/5, then it's a question who else to put in. say i can't put you in. mala and nk15 are out of the question. so it's between std and fire. looking at the vc last page, nobody is healing fire except for fire, and maybe i'm doing the same thing i did last game where town was just about to vote out scum!ceph and i tried to stop them because ??? because it would make sense for scum!fire to step on the gas if he's about to lose, but...

idk i didn't like the way std came around to a townread on me when i was starting to become a more popular townread while not engaging much with my points against him and bleh. if the majority of the game won't be changing their mind about possibly putting fire in rather than std (i say possibly because i haven't yet read fire's posts in depth to determine whether i actually wanna do that) then i'll vote ari out and vote std in because i don't have the time nor the energy to try to brute force things i myself am not sure about and that might be wrong.

but like, if there's a possibility that happens (i saw irrel talking about coming around to a townread on fire) and considering we'll get another 7 days after the coalition fails (assuming ari isn't lying about that because lol?) i think we can afford a day or two to just look at that possibility.

I'm kinda sus of mala's sr of ari tbh

^^^

up to here right now, and it feels like mala saw that a pure coalition is about to form so she's doing a hail mary of "leave out these 3 people are most have agreed should be in the coalition because *radio static*"

also this:

so id at least want to place myself over one of them because I KNOW i'm town via my own role pm via mod (unless the mod is just a jester)
so why would i leave myself out to possibly risk interchanging a mafia in it
naaaaaaaaathanks

is kinda funny because

while i get the "i'm not moving myself out of the coalition" mindset for townies, there's also the fact that if you have been prodging for the whole game and now drop in with takes that attack the current consensus and don't make sense, then it kind of makes sense that you're not getting in unless you significantly step on the gas in terms of towniness

and the fact that mala can probably sense that she's not doing that but there's still the "i want in bc i am town bc mod said so lol" is a sign of a non-existent self-awareness which i think makes much more sense from panicking scum than from town about to be left out

like idk if i'm town in mala's position and i see a coalition forming that i think is capital b Bad i probably try to spend the little time we have until it convincing people why it's bad not doing *this*

also like, not even mentioning the fact that mala's entrance read on me/ari was that we're town/town at a time when it was kinda popular to say our interactions are awkward

but now that we're kind of consensus townreads our interactions are pockety

where's the path from point a to point b

if scum really is mala and nk15 i am going to be so disappointed

I actually like this post by NK.
It actually lines up with how I'm feeling right now about this gamestate. Other than I disagree with how high std & mena are
although, i usually go for a townbloc rather than a scum bloc until late game w/ a scum flip and then i scumhunt hardcore for interactions/associates

@relly this is the one that felt unaligneed to me

If she knows she can’t get in to the coalition she needs to prop him up

yeah, that was my thought upon reading it too

it did occur to me that scum!mala can leave false trails (like she did in a recent game where we were both scum), but i kinda realized i don't really know how to tell between "scum!mala is panicking because both her and her buddy are about to be left out" and "scum!mala is doing distancing from a townread partner"

also thanks

god this is so fucking stupid

whichever iso i open i feel like i *could* make a scumcase if, like, i really needed to make one, but my mind just keeps going back to "nk15 and mala are scumfucks tho right" and no matter what i think about i can't justify scumreading someone over the two of them even if it's rarely that easy and afchgvuhiCf this game

I may have just gotten the warm and fuzzy feeling in his inital i'm going to townping her and I like how he didn't care to give his POV.

so, you went from townpinging on me, to... thinking i might be scum because me and ari townread each other and because YOU are prone to getting pocketed?

how is me/ari townread different than any other townread between two players in the game?

Datisi who’s std’s partner if you’re not so sure he’s town?

*potential partner, not asking for a scumcase, etc

spending about 15 seconds on it, i'd say mala because the "hey, std that all of you townread is Scum, Actually" into "actually nvm i guess he's maybe town lol idk" is weird and has a clear scum motive if she's scum with std for distancing then panicking that he might not even get into the coalition

i'm awful at d1 preflip, especially for people that i don't even have a Strong Scumread on

Ugh.

Maybe I’m coming around to a ari and dat town again

who do you think is scum in the coalition then?

(1) have you read my towncase on him (2) do you have reasonings for any of those reads

Mend?

He was kinda my idk if I want to switch him in or out player

(1) have you read my towncase on him (2) do you have reasonings for any of those reads

VOTE: mena

Why do u think mena?

ok i'm gonna channel my inner dkkoba for a second:

malakittens explain the scumread on menalque challenge (120% impossible) (gone wrong) (not clickbait) (not sponsored)

this is unedited because im lazy but like


this...kinda looks like textbook distancing, no?

[bloodhail]

My reads suck

its ok dude everyone has misses sometimes


i think a big thing is that i came into the game when there were already 80 pages of content and it was fresh to me, i didnt have ideas stuck in my head from memory i was fixated on

if id been in from the start dunno if i do any better

just gotta pick yourself up and keep trying

[bloodhail]

i should also say i dont think skitter is ever scum from the interactions between her and datisi - knowing now there was a raging tvt between my slot and mena i dont see why datisi ever distances from his partner who is getting townread at that time, just seems wildly anti-wincon. his shade on skitter was s0 nitpicky, too

(this is to say nothing of the fact that scum-skitt never unvotes when i have stated my willingness to selfhammer to end the day)

so if we can confidently set std/skitter as town i think 1 more confident town read wins us the game

[bloodhail]

I mean i'm opening the door for said miracle if you'd like to explain ur pov some more
Werent u townreading them at the time of the initial flirting?

No, not because of the flirting.

IDK. I was liking ari's initial posts because she felt like she was trying to move the game along and as for Datisi. I may have just gotten the warm and fuzzy feeling in his inital i'm going to townping her and I like how he didn't care to give his POV.

now I'm just paranoid of them so

Can u point to something specific ur paranoid over?

I believe I answered this already. I have a tendancy to get pocketed quite easily. once i get townread and i have known/comfortable with the player i kinda just place blinders on and don't think the slot can be scum. it just burned me in two games recently, one which i was able to get out of the pocket and the other which i didnt

i'm just scared if one of dat/ari is scum the other is pocketed and they are going to use each other to manipulate

idk if this is partnery though!

[bloodhail]

def thought bloodhail was dying so kinda interesting that he didn't ig

have a dumb theory about faker dying that i will not share

[bloodhail]

searched datisi's iso for mentions of fire, nothing really conclusive

reading fire on datisi...dunno. he seemed to be townreading him and defending him really early which could just be Wrong, i guess. but nothing in the interactions with datisi i'm seeing are clearing, exactly

[bloodhail]

ughhh

i was kinda getting paranoid of datisi and so i went to go reread his scum games to remind myself what that looks like and how ive thought he was town when he's scum before

and came away from it thinking that it doesn't really feel similar to this at all, actually

so now idk what to make of that

making the sucking air through my teeth noise

[bloodhail]

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

but also, this sequence, prior to me showing up, is kind of hrmery

[bloodhail]

mb fire didnt shoot you cuz u said he was townie

idk me living atp is all wifom, dont wanna overthink it

[bloodhail]

i don't think i'm gonna get a confident poe tonight, just too much to think about right now (not that expecting to figure the game out in a few hours is reasonable lol)

@skitt -

when you get a chance let's talk and go over everyone. i'm like 99% confident you're town, hopefully you're there on me, let's try to work together to figure this out

[bloodhail]

I'm good with getting Datisi Day 1and being happy with that

But it's going to be annoying as fuck if I get voted out after that just because people don't want to bother reading me

dont worry about that right now

i get you think it's nk15, what are your other reads looking like right now?

[bloodhail]

i guess i should sa

@skitt - when you get a chance let's talk and go over everyone. i'm like 99% confident you're town, hopefully you're there on me, let's try to work together to figure this out

k
i'm around a bit now

i'm kinda readign the game like

me
std
bloodhail/ari
fire
roden
nk15

and kinda just want to go up from the bottom
i can probably be convinced on roden
not sure as much on fire

but this is where i am rn

my big issue right now is i'm not comfortable with clearing ari

[bloodhail]

awww

you should've just said you clear me and hope i get nightkilled

the paranoia is for later dear

i dont see any world where you get nked before me and i wanna have a winning poe

[bloodhail]

my big issue right now is i'm not comfortable with clearing ari

Y tho?

uh my feeling was that even though it felt like her towngame when i was reading initially and i recognize that she helped datisi go over yesterday which is very uncharacteristic of scum-her i get paranoid of the attempted push on mena when i was calling for a 1v1 with datisi

[bloodhail]

awww

you should've just said you clear me and hope i get nightkilled

the paranoia is for later dear

i dont see any world where you get nked before me and i wanna have a winning poe

silly because I am townier than you

[bloodhail]

if they r t/t i would guess datisi - mala for the scum team

eh maybe nvm

[bloodhail]

fire waffling on datisi after i'd started turning on him and skitt and ari were questioning him feels kind of townie in a way that i'd expect scum-him to be a little more gamestate-conscious of, dunno

[bloodhail]

i need to re-examine how datisi reacted to ari turning against him because if that looks unpartnered enough i think we just stay the course on what seems to be consensus poe

[bloodhail]

i

think

the panicky response of datisi to ari is unpartnered, i am just very paranoid

[bloodhail]

i think i'm at, like

i don't want mala or nk15 in the coalition - i feel like this setup, coupled with the extremely short deadline, can feel very demoralizing for scum if they don't get onto the train early and that makes sense from both of them. i think it's fairly unlikely they're both scum because games are almost never that easy but i would be somewhat surprised if they were both town. i guess nk15 is slightly townier than mala buh meh.

fire is kinda missing his usual fire (hehe) and while i did like the way we lowkey mindmelded on irrel yesterday night i'm wondering if that's enough. the posts i'm reading from him on the previous page feel like reads pulled out of random.org. like i don't get why he has them or that he actually believes in them or how he arrived at them and etc.

so i'm left with me/mena/skitt/ari and one of std or irrel? bleh maybe they're both town and i'm not giving enough credit to The Vibes but also time is short

why did i join this game

I feel like this points more towards fire rather than mala/nk15 but maybe I'm just conf-biased.

idk - i think the shade there can come from either motivation, either distancing from a partner or pushing a townie down into the scumreads so he gets coalitioned. i'm not sure it's necessarily conclusive just from that one post - i would want to examine overall trajectory more

and from what i saw he moved to townreading fire, possibly after fire was defending him

which kinda makes me think fire leapt into his pocket but i can see it both ways

[bloodhail]

which kinda makes me think fire leapt into his pocket but i can see it both ways

it's comfy in there i can't help it

its ok i did it once before too, only managed to get him at ELO

which was why i resisted him flailing at me cuz it reminded of how scum-him argues against pressure

[bloodhail]

eh im going to call it for tonight, ill get back to the game tomorrow

[bloodhail]

VOTE: NK15

Gonna just mentally check out of this game since I'm getting tilted and we've already won anyway. NK15/Fire is GG.

don't take it personally. if you're town, i get it, you're getting suspected for having a correct read and that really sucks. you didn't really get a chance to establish yourself in the game and you have to deal with the baggage from the player who was in the game before you. that's kind of out of your control, unfortunately, and i know how it goes speaking as someone who replaces into games a lot. just do the best you can from spot you're in. it's possible i'm

way

overthinking this because i'm mentally projecting an idea of how scum would play this setup that may not be accurate. i trust that if you're town we can work things out here.

[bloodhail]

Spoiler: malakittens quotes

datis is prob town
ari feels town as well.

HEAL: datis
HEAL: ari

idk about skitter,
i'm very bad about reading std
i dont have much exp with fire

In post 178, Malakittens wrote:
datis is prob town
ari feels town as well.

HEAL: datis
HEAL: ari

idk about skitter,
i'm very bad about reading std
i dont have much exp with fire

mmm
this reminds me of like, lazy scum-mala i guess

the first thing that jumps out at me is the "i don't have much exp with fire" because i know mala's exp with me is one (1) game where we were both scum and i don't think the discussion about fire was so much about past experiences compared to discussion about other people that it warranted to mention specifically for him that she doesn't have experience

that sentence is a mess but it boils down to "explain pls"

I mean tbh other than Skitter & STD I haven't really played a game with either of the following players or played more than 1 with them. So technically I'm going to suck at reading you all.
I just know i REAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLY suck at reading STD, mainly becuase i ahven't seen scum-std.

TBH
NGL
I don't want the following players in a coalition {STD, Nk15, Ari & dat}

I'm VERY much down to have skitter & irrel in it. Fire is a gut-yes

at this point I want to place myself it in bc i'm town.

So i'm looking for one more townread for my townblock

i'm end of page 22

ngl

i think i just vibbed with a nk town

i'm down for a {Skitter, irrel, NK, fire & me} I'm also ok with mena being in ←

scum is prob within {STD, Ari, Dat}

Your interactions are weird. Your tone is weird. Maybe its the vibes between u/dati i don't like. there's just something there I dont like and if one of you is scum you're gonna pocket each other and i'm just not about that life rn

Right now I'm back to being paranoid of being pocketed again. Maybe because i was pocketed by Val in that newbie game or recently I let Math pocket the hell out of me, but it's whatever

i just cant in my right mind place the two of you in a coalition when i cant trust you arent pocketed

no, not me being pocketed.

i cant trust the two of you might be scum and the other is pocketed.

hence just eliminating you both out of my townblock b/c i just dont vibe

Well, mala/ari isnt a thing
I'm kinda sus of mala's sr of ari tbh

It’s more because I can’t really figure out who’s scum out of ari dat so they are just kinda places together as one is prob scum

so like for example you would be ok with a skitter/irrel/fire/nk/mena coalition?

not sure how likely that would be just curious

That’s what I wrote
How I feel


I also don’t really see how it can’t be possible

But w/e

I guess I just find it weird you think my scum partner is Save the Dragons but you don't say it and instead have some round a bout way of saying one of me/dats is scum but you have a really bad feeling about me because I scumread you without having played a game with you and don't really mention anything I've done with SaveTD who is my partner?

well it's more i got a poe of you three. my less solid of a townread is NK & mena

which i said if i'm being left out i'm ok with mena
but again nk & mena are my weakest reads
so id at least want to place myself over one of them because I KNOW i'm town via my own role pm via mod (unless the mod is just a jester)
so why would i leave myself out to possibly risk interchanging a mafia in it
naaaaaaaaathanks

like idk if i'm town in mala's position and i see a coalition forming that i think is capital b Bad i probably try to spend the little time we have until it convincing people why it's bad not doing *this*

Just because people don’t agree with my reads prior to an actual flip. I can’t help you

Again just because I’m low effort and then start to effort isn’t AI. You can see that in recent games where I’ll be a lurker fest until it’s needed at either alignment.

But whatever

If everyone wants to call it scum panicking then fine, but just note you are all fucking wrong

If you want to leave me out that’s fine: I’ll just treat this like a dance game & I’ll see myself out by myself and prove a point

no because obv you are set in your ways that i'm scum and i prob willneed some type of miracle for you to see how i'm town

i just have a hard time trying to explain my gut read in regards to ari/datisi

it might be the flirting thats pinging me, but who knows

just a bad vibe

but std potentially could be town which means i'm wrong somewhere

<:

I mean i'm opening the door for said miracle if you'd like to explain ur pov some more
Werent u townreading them at the time of the initial flirting?

No, not because of the flirting.

IDK. I was liking ari's initial posts because she felt like she was trying to move the game along and as for Datisi. I may have just gotten the warm and fuzzy feeling in his inital i'm going to townping her and I like how he didn't care to give his POV.

now I'm just paranoid of them so

Can u point to something specific ur paranoid over?

I believe I answered this already. I have a tendancy to get pocketed quite easily. once i get townread and i have known/comfortable with the player i kinda just place blinders on and don't think the slot can be scum. it just burned me in two games recently, one which i was able to get out of the pocket and the other which i didnt

i'm just scared if one of dat/ari is scum the other is pocketed and they are going to use each other to manipulate

Right now I'm back to being paranoid of being pocketed again. Maybe because i was pocketed by Val in that newbie game or recently I let Math pocket the hell out of me, but it's whatever

i just cant in my right mind place the two of you in a coalition when i cant trust you arent pocketed

no, not me being pocketed.

i cant trust the two of you might be scum and the other is pocketed.

hence just eliminating you both out of my townblock b/c i just dont vibe

I guess 85% will have to do >_>

i wish i could be More Sure but with 2 players who are Very Good At Scum and 2 players who are actively Not Playing, it's difficult to be sure :<

Just saying I’m really good at scum and I’m really good at not playing.

Jk I suck at scum.

I want to bash my head against the wall reading 1056

It’s legit what I been telling ari about why I want to leave datisi out

Not bc I don’t trust her, but because I don’t trust one of them mqnjlupatjnf each other bc of the relationship

Btw if one of them is scum and one is town or both are scum
I’ll never let any of you live that down

I’ll haunt u in your dreams

Ugh.

Maybe I’m coming around to a ari and dat town again

okay so, i actually did do some rereading of malakittens last night

and i think, on her own, irrespective of anything datisi said, i kind of like mala's posts. (this does not necessarily come through in the stuff i quoted, i just pulled all the ones about datisi in some way so people can evaluate on their own if they want)

i read her play in spring fling and ktane to contrast and there's a distinct edge to her in this game that was not present in her scum games

she does repeatedly call out the datisi/ari dynamic - there's a paranoid part of my brain that says there's some low level WIFOM where she was generally not trusted by the thread and could have been reverse psychology distancing, but idk how

sound

a strategy that is when skitter was trying to shove ari/datisi out of the coalition and it was entirely possible mala and datisi could have both been pushed out in that scenario. it's a bit of playing with fire in that scenario. she also attempted similar distancing in spring fling only for it to blow up on her - i only have secondhand info to rely on for this though because her PT with lukewarm was never released

i kind of scratch my chin and raise my eyebrow at the insistence that "one of" ari/dats is mafia, because it makes my brain paranoid. but the way she interacted with datisi, if only in a very limited sample, feels decent. from her end it doesn't really look partnered to me. 888 in particular feels like it has a decent amount of bite to it and is not awkward like i'd expect from distancing. of course hard to say with limited volume from mala but what there is there seems...fine


idk, don't want to necessarily spend too much time staring into spew, like i said if i take mala in a vacuum and ignore the alignment of everyone else in the game her posting actually seems town for her

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meh actually i checked bears with guns 2 and idk anymore lmao

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nah ok i checked a towngame (mini normal 2271) and i think her play here is much closer to her towngame

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also silly but i don't rly think roden kills faker here

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there are some very good spots in fire's iso but on the balance I still feel like this is clever scheming scum!fire rather than say just town!fire; I could be like unreasonably tunneled on his slot - I have a tendency to get unreasonably tunneled.

elaborate for me a little on this?

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unfortunate that i committed to the bit of being a noavi on this account

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i think i always flip nk15 today and if its a hard world where someone played cleverly we cross that bridge tomorrow

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it is super hard for me to actually keep track of what was going on in the coalition phase because i wasn't here for it and haven't read linearly

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At rhat moment i think i was talking abt dats
And that's a point in fire's favor, no?

Pedit yeah i'm sure >.>

yes it is

he is asking me what i found that were good points in fire's favor

well i was actually asking why you think it's scheming scum-fire in particular

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like in lake melancholy

fire was not very protown in his voting? he just kind of tunneled on town afair and was wrong. but his thought process was v pure

here it feels like it is designed to look good.

idk like im on the same thing where i think his thought process this game has been believable even if his play has largely been pro-scum (sorry fire lol)

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also i have stupid reason for thinking nk15 is town

like

1) i think dats was telling truth about why he isnt partnered with nk15 - sounded like offended caught for wrong reasons dats

2) i think nk15!scum would enjoy voting and pushing datisi!scum partner but he never did

my reasons r somewhat stupid so i would never let nk15 actually endgame with them so i am fine if you want to kill him today. i think very good chance i am just wrong here

i mean, he did, in the very early phase of the game

and its not like he always just, uh, blatantly self-sabotages - here he did push his partner some but tried to find alternate wagons when they were available. and the fact that he hammered a coalition with datisi in it despite his read and then tried pushing other people is...not a great look at all

and honestly nk15 being right about a scumread is probably >>>rand scum

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fire do you have any idea why faker was the nk

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that was my very sneaky way of trying to see if you knew faker's main

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yea thats the thing - for roden it would just be killing a rando he had no clue about and i don't see why he ever tries that. for you it's similar, i could see it

maybe

as keeping me around because i had townread you, but even then faker over any other viable kill is weird



it is why i have a slight degree of tinfoil on ari but that's not a bridge i would cross right now

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I'm kinda assuming faker got killed for being mena's slot , no?

Ig i can see u and/or ari killing her cuz of her main
But like i think each of you probably kill other people anyways? Idk

even w/ the slot being basically town because of, uh, reasons - it's still a little surprising and my assumption is either lol wacky unpredictable mafia (nk15) or tactical kill to prevent a replacement from altering the gamestate

(i might potentially nk faker were i scum, but how i played day 1 would be completely out of pocket and egregious if i were scum so it's weird to even put myself in that headspace)

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yeah on meta i think mala is just town here


just send nk15 today, i think ive said all i want to at this point

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or tactical kill to prevent a replacement from altering the gamestate

This would imply to me that the poe is very very wrong ...

i mean, i had 2 names listed lol

and i am not discounting nk15 just being chaotic and pickin a weird kill just because

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read nk15's case and while there's some weird stuff there (namely the way ari and datisi were townreading each other) mostly it just feels like circumstantial evidence at best

can probably write some words on fire tonight but otherwise i think we vote nk15 and then go from there if necessary

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also bloodhail ive listened to 3 of your pfp albums now and this one is my favorite

hmm wow pocketing much

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anyway now that mala has posted my first shot at a coalition is

HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: skitter
HEAL: not known 15
HEAL: irrelephant
HEAL: malakittens

200 from fire is a bit oof though

like i recall that fire said he wanted to wait for everyone to post before healing, but like, (1) mala had posted before (this point is pedantry tho so whatever) but (2) what about mala's 178 is something that makes you wanna heal her

(1) i got 0 from her original posts and got slightly more than 0 from that post, so by my own arbitrary guidelines of what counts, that one counted and the others didn't

(2) maybe this is overthinking but i felt like it looked too much like lazy scum mala (which at least a couple people here should know what that looks like) and unless she just like straight up doesn't care at all (in which case she will prob get caught sooner than later anyway) i thought she would make some attempt to not look like that. and yes i have talked myself out of correct scumreads like at least once a game with this logic and i am aware of that. but anyway after this i also kinda liked her questioning my heal on her, didn't feel like something she would be as likely to do as scum

std - backpedalling is a thing that exists but alright sure

fire - i think that's not a Good reason to townread someone since just because someone knows they need to play differently doesn't mean that they CAN do that, and this is a setup where one scum lowkey benefits from looking scummy if they're also distanced enough for later, but that's a theoretical discussion that's not very helpful right now

as for her "questioning" your read on her, 216 felt more like she was asking "what do you mean now that i've posted, i've posted before" rather than "why are you townreading me for that post", which feels like something scum might do if they feel like they should enter a conversation with you but they don't want to actually make you rethink your townread or open the gates for discussion there

kinda don't think this is scum/scum - this overall looks like a bit of an unnecessary callout as to when it happens, fire wasn't receiving significant pressure other than from ari, datisi had briefly tried to coalition him

is also maybe one of those things where i can see it as secondhand distancing "that's not a good reason to townread someone" being, like, kind of a classic way of talking about bad reads on your parter (but, again, datisi has plenty of reason to discredit townreads on town in the coalition phase as well)

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Guys I got malakittens+datisi scumteam in my eye and I can't get it out

I'm not even really advocating that that's definitely the scumteam it's just like... stuck there in my large elephant eye

My trunk is not quite nimble enough to hepl, someone help

hm can you talk about this more

Sure yeah, elephant eyes are a little bigger than human eyes. Only a little, which might surprise you - roughly 150% the size of a human eye. I would have thought bigger but no

And elephant trunks can grab stuff but don't have, like, opposable thumbs, so it's hard to get in there without making things worse

ok well i was kind of feeling like your more recent posting has vibes of "haha look at me i have towny thoughts processes and plans and paranoias" and less so like those things were genuine. like it feels like you care more about projecting that image of yourself than about the things themselves

and that response doesn't really help on that front

pedit: oh no, i'm townreading fire now???

this conversation right here: look at this. this is what i wanted to check. datisi goes from shading fire and suspecting him to townreading him when fire starts attacking irrelephant for his scumread of datisi

think this is just a straight-up pocket

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I really do think that unless its like exactly mala/mk we're going wronf somewhere ....

full disclosure this made me want to convince you of irrel/std and then that made me paranoid that you said it in order to make me want to convince you

not a lasting paranoia but still

can you explain more of your thought process when you said this

it would make me feel better

i'm reading the iso, don't wanna quote a bunch or write a summary unfortunately

but this is the kind of thought i don't typically expect to see from scum unless they're exceptionally clever

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mostly want to talk to datisi about it cause it felt like he had similar thoughts at first and then ended up at a townread somehow and im not sure why exactly

hi did you call for me

as the game was progressing, i felt more and more that my reasons for scumreading irrel were personal nonsense rather than actual good reasons and that if i tried to look at it from a neutral perspective, i could feel he actually was moving the game forward and being active in trying to solve it. like i plan to at least double check my work there this day phase but yeah not my first choice within the coalition i guess?

if you want me to look at something specific or just wanna jam for a bit, i should be around for an hour or so before i go to bed

as the game was progressing, i felt more and more that my reasons for scumreading irrel were personal nonsense rather than actual good reasons and that if i tried to look at it from a neutral perspective, i could feel he actually was moving the game forward and being active in trying to solve it. like i plan to at least double check my work there this day phase but yeah not my first choice within the coalition i guess?

i did feel like this at times which was why i ended up being ok with him being in bc i accepted i could just be wrong

but then when it failed, like... i don't really think it's anyone else?

idk i still think 427 is really scummy and im still surprised you don't, just the way he was kind of dodging your points and calling you town for making them instead is ew to me

i feel like he did an excellent reflective stepback on me in a way that seemed scummy

ugh see this is what i mean these points aren't even great how can i convince other people when i can't even explain why i think he's scum

did you check if he does this in other games by any chance? i see you said you were going to

only to the extent where i felt he was not out of his scumrange and that he does like to effort and be in control of things as scum, i didn't like do an in depth comparison between town and scum looking for tells

mostly cause its p stale meta since he hasn't played much in like years

hmm

that line from scum!irrel with no other scum in the coalition would only make sense if he was decently sure nobody would actually follow him on it. idk it lowkey feels like "vote me out today vote x out tomorrow" kinda thing if it's from scum - depending how hard he was being townread by everyone at that point... i'll think about it if/when i need to

i did feel like he was doing things that he felt people wouldn't follow him on, fwiw, especially when he was saying he was ok with being left out of the coalition

like i think that was p unlikely to ever happen

well that's just stellar. i should probably reassess my read on him while keeping in mind that i can't write things off as townie because "scum probably doesn't effort this much" or for similar reasons like that

ik you don't like secondhand meta but it was a pain to go through and find his scumgames so here was one that did have a good amount of effort to it if you want to look

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=31377

there were other sequences in this iso i didn't quote because i didn't think they were super compelling but in general fire goes out of his way to lean on/talk to datisi in a way i wouldn't expect to see from teammates - looks a lot of the time like fire is genuinely interested in datisi's perspective/is trying to persuade him

it also feels like datisi is working his way towards an irrel vote based on fire's posting, which again strikes me as an unlikely interaction for scum partners to fake - he can just take that journey himself, he doesn't need to be persuaded. strikes me more as scum looking to piggyback on a townie's incorrect read

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also bloodhail ive listened to 3 of your pfp albums now and this one is my favorite

hmm wow pocketing much

it would be pocketing if i said i liked them all

bloodhail > skull > sideways suit man

sideways suit man was kinda meh imo

oh you meant my avatars i thought you meant the HANL albums

well you disrespected james murphy so i have to yeet you now

(are you sure you're not unwnd lmao)

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okay, i'm done rereading fire, i don't have anything world-shattering beyond what i have already expressed in-thread, both from this latest skim and on past days. general conclusion is while it's not impossible he's scum i'd be pretty impressed, even if he was wrong the solving all looks genuine, i buy the thought processes he expresses as being real in terms of how he suspected my slot/mena and the way the read evolved there looked organic. the interactions with datisi also just don't look like something either would think to fake. you could maybe squint at the trajectory on datisi post my replace in as a (very well-done) pivot but that's about it. also had an opportunity to dunk me although i dunno that he could fake that turn believably, still worth considering


atp i'm spent, have nothing more useful to say, ready to vote nk15

[bloodhail]

VOTE: not known 15

E-2


should this not end the game: don't ever kill skitter, don't ever kill std.

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tried reading the league of legends game just to get a baseline on fire-scum but didn't get a ton out of it

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Bloodhail do u still have any doubts on ari?
Or you're just not going there today?

i'm not going there today - everyone else has had reasons for me to find them believably town and nk15 hammering a coalition with the people he was scumreading in it is just impossible to reconcile from a town pov

if i wanted i could be concerned about how ari had weird justification for townreading datisi but so did fire and it's not like both can be mafia. ari still had a lot of in the moment stuff that felt very town to me and i don't want to throw that away solely off a nightkill


i wish i could name a 4th townread i'm ultra-confident in but

everyone

seems really towny to me, if you track my posting, so either someone is playing a great game or it's just nk15. can elaborate on any of those reads if you want, though

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Who's the third townread?
Me/std/?

And honestly i think i'm probably fine flipping nk15 today, dont have much to add tbh

(If ari is still alive in elo tho flip her ^)

oh i'm counting myself as town in that - if i had 3 non-me townreads it'd be a game-winning poe

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I changed my mind, vote me out tomorrow if this is wrong.

meh dont necessarily worry about that right now

do you have other thoughts on stuff that's been said?

happy scumday btw

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nah don't selfvote roden

i'm not convinced it's you

so take your vote off and talk to me about who you think it is

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For the record, I don't think I played badly this game. I'm proud of myself for correctly reading Datisi and helping to turn Day 1 around, and that my original read on NK15 was correct and that my method for reading him is more solid I expected it to be. My presence in a potential ELo is just a detriment, and I don't want to argue with STD if it comes to it.

please don't throw in the towel by selfvoting

have you not seen my posts - i am not at all convinced it is you

i realize you're worried about getting tunneled by std here but let's pick up the pieces and try to figure things out, yeah?

i understand feeling like you're being tunneled can be irritating and you had to deal with very unusual circumstances this game but i'd like it if you tried your best here, all right?

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nah don't selfvote roden

i'm not convinced it's you

so take your vote off and talk to me about who you think it is

I still think it's Fire, but if I'm wrong we lose. That's just how it is.

why do you think it is fire?

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i have thoughts

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tell me more tell me more

well i wanna hear from roden first

but while you're here, tell me

when & why did you go from thinking mala's slot was a possible datisi partner to thinking it was fire?

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okay so it's just fire by poe for you?

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sure go for it i want to see reasoning because as it is i'm stuck and am sitting on reasons to townread everyone

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i am concerned by the fact that i feel relatively similar to roden but mirrored

idk if that means he is doing that intentionally or if it means we are actually in the same spot

talk me through your read?

i think i get the basic gist of it in your case but i'm starved for conversation

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yeah, i read you

and i do acknowledge there's kind of a convenience of timing thing from both mala/roden, some of the interactions with datisi are a little ~odd~

although the attitude here from roden feels a little town and - idk if i ever explained it, did you see the stuff i was saying about malakittens meta? because that's a bit of a sticking point for me

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can you point out specific things that you think are out of std's scumrange

if i can be more confident in him being town then i will feel better at least

well aside from meta i don't think the way datisi treated him is ever partnered

and when i did a brief re-check of his iso i thought things looked okay on his end, had some nice posts and even when he was wrong on datisi was appealing to him in a believabe way


but like, you were in that large normal with him as a traitor, right? does his play this game remind you of that one? because i'm skimming that game right now and i think he's night and day between those two games

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about her having more fire here, or was there more than that? i saw that and wasn't sure i really agreed. unless you were thinking of something else, the main fiery thing i saw was her responding to people saying she lurks more as scum, which i think she could genuinely be annoyed by as either alignment.

looking now ig some of her suspicions and responses to people are stated in a kinda indignant and maybe flippant way which isn't really the attitude she had in dance (my main memory there was her like blatantly trying to pocket people) so maybe there's a point there

yeah it's a little bit specific but here's a recent sample:

scum

spring fling
KTaNE
Mini Normal 2269
Bears With Guns 2

town:

Mini Normal 2271
Newbie 2093
CONTROL

that's a lot of links but i felt like i shouldn't omit stuff i talked about. i'd specifically reference spring fling and mini normal 2271 since she posted a decent amount in both of those games. (control she was active but it was a large game and she lived a long, probably not the best comp)

i'm not gonna tell you necessarily what i saw, i want you to draw your own conclusions here, but i'll give you what i was working with and see what you come up with

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but like, you were in that large normal with him as a traitor, right? does his play this game remind you of that one? because i'm skimming that game right now and i think he's night and day between those two games

yea for sure not like that game, but i don't think thats the extent of his range. its also v easy to just be not quite the scummiest lurker in a large, don't think he could get away with that here

in general i think he's, uh, a little bit on the lazy side as scum and what he's shown here is a lot more genuine depth to his thinking, even if he was wrong on menalque it felt like a read he really believed in especially given the extent he was willing to case it. i don't really think stuff like that is characteristic of his scum game at all

like in this game as well a lot of the stuff he says is pretty shallow and he just doesn't have much energy at all

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ok i did find this which was kinda funny

Subject: Mini 2270: Spring Fling!

i feel townpings on malakittens for possibly dumb reasons, we'll see

considering

i have a probably very horrible reason for a townping on malakittens.

but actually coming from datisi thats maybe more clearing than suspicious tbh

anyway, continuing

lmao

i have unwittingly gone back to the same well as mafia before actually so i wouldn't necessarily read too much into that aspect of it

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i think bossing a newbie game is fairly different than a micro full of grizzled veterans. i'm seeing where he gets to doing a post with fancy postnum links in the newbie game but it feels IIOA-ey, which is different from the way he's solving here


dunno even the way he bugged me about his read on menalque and seemed

despondent

that there was another person coming in calling his top scumread obvtown felt very real to me

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i guess my problem is i don't think i'm doing what i'm being accused of in 565. I don't think i'm "coming in with a "good post"TM whenever i feel like it, i feel like i've tried to take charge and guide town but i'm getting drowned out because people keep putting me as scum and not really explaining why

as scum i do tend to stick to the background and let the town make mistakes but as town i try to have presence. i think my scum game and town game are actually night and day and i think it should be easy to tell. i know, self meta take it with a grain of salt

which makes it hard for me to trust that read because it seems so static and not reassessed based on anything i've posted in response which worries me but maybe if everyone's scum reading i'm doing something wrong but it's hard to believe i'm getting null/scumread by people without scum's influence in the thread specifically gunning to keep me out.

well i found his own self meta saying what i'm saying so lol

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i'm not gonna tell you necessarily what i saw, i want you to draw your own conclusions here, but i'll give you what i was working with and see what you come up with

alr after reading some i think the main thing that stands out to me is that as scum she tends to be more interested in playing the social game, whether that's kind of elbowing her way into a block, or acting up mindmelds/being pocketed, etc. town she's a little more independent-minded

this game i think actually more closely resembles her scumgames on that point, but idk, its present in both town and scum games so its not like a strong tell or anything

im also not feeling super confident in my meta assessments rn tho considering i thought nk was like hard in his scum meta for what seemed like a super obv reason to me but that was wrong ):

mm, okay, point taken

what i was generally seeing is that she gets annoyed at getting suspected incorrectly as town and that doesn't really manifest in the same way as mafia and i felt more of that here

i don't know that it's rock solid, but i have the nagging gut feeling that says it might not be roden

[bloodhail]

/shrug

i think it's ari

going to leave and not explain that for several hours

[bloodhail]

/shrug

i think it's ari

going to leave and not explain that for several hours

can talk about this with you if you want to

it is fine if you don't want to as well

I think skitter probably was killed to make me look bad because she was like "flip ari at elo"

well after 2 nights where i felt i should've eaten the nightkill i have not, and so i have to question why that is

that's the start of it, anyway

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ok and scum!me doesnt nightkill you because?

because i had expressed thinking you were town on day 1 and while i wavered on day 2 i didn't want to flip you then and certainly was inconclusive in my reads

where i saw that skitter had had lingering paranoia on you throughtout the game and was more likely to turn on you out of fear

there's more to it than basic nka stuff but that's where i started. i'll get into it more but it's 12:30 am so i don't have time to explain stuff, but i've reread the game again and had some new thoughts

[bloodhail]

well the main question is why roden/fire/std make those kills and i have a harder time seeing them doing that than you


but no matter - that was only the tip of my suspicion


what it comes down to is that i wanted to revisit my read on you, because while i could find reasons for townreading other people, when i revisited you i don't have much beyond "vibes". on day 1 i felt datisi was the scummiest in the coalition (and i was right) but it doesn't equate to an explicit townread. the biggest point in favor of ari (agreeing to be left out of the coalition) doesn't mean a whole lot since datisi flipped scum.

you could argue datisi wanting ari in the coalition is not the approach he'd take with a teammate, but i'd say it makes even less sense to take town-ari in, even if she's very pocketed, knowing the possibility he might have to push her (although there's all sorts of odd strategy i can see happening in the coalition phase, it's hard to read into)


so, on a reread what struck me is that datisi and ari both had townreads on each other that they wrote long justifications for that were kind of underdeveloped. 356 1201 (kind of) and 1702 are instances of this from datisi. ari's explanations for her read on datisi are stuff like 302, 1056 and 1595, which feel especially reach-y in their reasoning. the problem with this is it doesn't feel like it's displaying the requisite paranoia - in the large normal where datisi is scum ari was fooled pretty hard by him and i don't really get the sense she'd so willingly throw herself into his arms and not display skepticism, just because she's friends with datisi.

the lack of paranoia is also sharply demonstrated in 1705/1708 - ari offers a rebuttal to datisi's reasons for townreading her and says they're "not very good", but only makes a joking comment about being pocketed by him - it feels like there's no genuine curiosity toward datisi. it doesn't make much rational sense to respond that way - why would she not be more suspicious of him if his reasons for townreading her are not good?

on a similar note, i find the sequence of 1829 and 1843 to be suspect - ari says she's townreading datisi but is also setting up conditionals for if he's scum. this doesn't really compute to me, i don't think people generally set up possible scum associations for someone they're generally townreading - it reads more like a pre-emptive hedge.


i think if you look at their play day 2 it makes a lot of sense as them trying to powerwolf the game by mutually townreading each other. they both stay hands off on the irrel-mena fight and make vague pushes at skitter. ari mostly doesn't really consider datisi and doesn't really strongly look for scum in the coalition. i think her posting on day 2 is lazy, and i associate that more with scum not trying to make waves. you note that she tries to deflect attention from skitter vs datisi in 1436 toward the tvt fight. 1475 is a pretty gross overture toward voting the menalque wagon that is mostly leaning on people outside the coalition suspecting mena - reads like excuse-making for joining a mis-elim.


i also think there's pretty heavy scum motive in trying to deflect attention onto town-mena when i entered the game calling out datisi and trying to 1v1 him. i think that's relevant because i think that play more heavily fits a scum profile than other players who were less influential/more indecisive. i think trying to save a partner in a 1v1 by deflecting onto town is something scum-ari would do.

you can argue that yes, ari did eventually shift to push datisi, but that was after i went so far as to selfvote and mena had a toxic meltdown that made him likely unflippable. we also know

for a fact

that someone who is alive bussed datisi. so i think putting due skepticism of everyone alive through that lens is necessary - at some point datisi realized he was not endgaming and his partner had to bus. this is undisputable fact. so the question of timing becomes a relevant one. and i think datisi suddenly making gestures at suspecting ari feels antispewy in a way. i think that if you look back, datisi was much more keen on arguing against skitter when she was expressing suspicion of him than he was in arguing back against ari.

and this is kinda notable because earlier in the game he was defensive of the notion he was "townlocking" ari in 1868 - i think if it was a confident tmi read like the one on menalque he just rides with it. and this is

particularly

interesting because of this post:

yep, i reread the case and i feel like i could write another wall on why i don't think the reasons are Good but i also don't really think that would be much helpful for anyone

Okay for the sake of this conversation which if skitter/ari is more likely scum fypov

skitter

it's like, i think there are way more things that i can point out being +town for ari than i can for skitter. yes i know most of my reasons got shot down as bad but i don't think they all are. i don't think scum!ari plays d1 the way she did and i don't think she offers to sheep and be out of the coalition unless she's like, 100% sure her partner is already inside. and if that's the case, then

her partner has to be within you/skitt i think, which means it's better to flip there first either way then re-eval ari after the flip

i know i'm town. i know skitter is town. i think the way datisi tries to deflect from ari here is decently likely to be partner-indicative.

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lol low effort alt

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there's stuff about how i've felt the way she's played d3/d4 that makes sense from a scum pov but that's more minor/vibe-y stuff that is less worth elaborating on because it's somewhat speculative

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I think you're spending a lot of time thinking about things when it's fairly obviously to me that if I were scum I would just power wolf instead of whatever this angsty rom com version of me is.

by any decent indication that looks like what you were doing

i also think there's pretty heavy scum motive in trying to deflect attention onto town-mena when i entered the game calling out datisi and trying to 1v1 him. i think that's relevant because i think that play more heavily fits a scum profile than other players who were less influential/more indecisive. i think trying to save a partner in a 1v1 by deflecting onto town is something scum-ari would do.

it would be significantly easier for me to just mislim you and then chain mena on d3 rather than try to start a wagon on mena from 0.

also as scum I mostly just townread mena because it's not worth the omgus from him to push him esp when he's busy tunneling townies.

you didn't have the trajectory on irrel to be able to pull it off and if you swapped to pushing me after i come into the game gunning for datisi it's bad optics for you

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also you're not solving right now, just interjecting into the argument between fire and roden

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also you're not solving right now, just interjecting into the argument between fire and roden

?

I said since d3 that fire is the last scum

I'm not sure what more solving I am supposed to do

i asked you to explain it further and you haven't


i don't think the reasoning you laid out is remotely compelling - speculative guessing about datisi only having WIM with a partner he thinks is capable does very little for me

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I think we have enough history where nothing I say to you is going to convince you I am right or that I am town.

but I think you respect my reads enough to sheep me after I'm dead.

so it makes very little sense for me to actually put much effort into casing fire.

ok

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i think if you look at their play day 2 it makes a lot of sense as them trying to powerwolf the game by mutually townreading each other. they both stay hands off on the irrel-mena fight and make vague pushes at skitter. ari mostly doesn't really consider datisi and doesn't really strongly look for scum in the coalition.

this is slightly a sticking point for me actually, one of the main reasons i started to suspect datisi is that after coalition failure it felt like he was amplifying and supporting ari's push onto skitter while letting her do most of the work, and mostly just being kinda nitpicky about her progressions. it's sort of a strange direction to take as partners, bc it wasn't ever likely to succeed, and draws a lot of attention to datisi. it really just felt like hiding behind a townie to me

meh she made her own point about how if townies are fighting each other she doesn't need to do anything and that felt like what was happening

it's also not strange whatsoever if skitter is literally the only player in the game who has an actual correct scumread

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to be clear i do think it could be ari there's just points of the game that im having trouble seeing from that perspective and thats holding me back

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

what i'm paranoid of is this: if ari is scum, this is the last day it's possible for me to catch her. if we vote roden and he's town then ari kills me and gets an f3 she's been setting up for 2 days and probably wins it.

you can say this is overly reactionary or whatever but i know this is something i cant kick the can down the road on.

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

meh, those arguments never do a lot for me unless it's some very specific tactic but i think there were plenty of reasons pushing me in that spot would be akin to suicide for scum

roden just giving up seems a little dramatic. i don't know if it's a ploy to get tr or if it's genuine, especially since it seems to be me who's somehow singlehandedly going to off him somehow

he has reacted to pressure dramatically as town in other games so it's not really out of the question

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as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

meh, those arguments never do a lot for me unless it's some very specific tactic but i think there were plenty of reasons pushing me in that spot would be akin to suicide for scum

what is this referring to? idk how this follows from that quote

oh whoops i botched that quote

tha was meant to be in response to this line:

i don't know if i like the "scum me would do this" argument but it also seems believable.

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i am fairly sure i could push u in that spot

flip you

flip mena next day

and flip skitter for the hat trick

if i were mafia

r u regretting u didnt

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what i'm paranoid of is this: if ari is scum, this is the last day it's possible for me to catch her. if we vote roden and he's town then ari kills me and gets an f3 she's been setting up for 2 days and probably wins it.

I do want to say that if you won't listen to me on fire when i'm alive, you should at least elim me so you can listen to me after I'm dead.

elimming roden here is just icky

ok

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bloodhail (or std, or whoever, idc) do you have any thoughts on the coalition forming, and how ari offered to sheep skitter at a time when it seemed very possible that skitter would want to try to leave ari/dats out, and most likely would if she found another town?

do you think its not accurate or that im missing something? do you think she does take that gamble as scum? do you think there wasn't as much risk as i think there was?

i need to reread that section to see how it was all going down

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so i'm left with me/mena/skitt/ari and one of std or irrel?

I'm still on the fence with u and ari but i'm also wondering if i should Get Over It
But otherwise i dont hate this

~
I kinda think scum is in fire, mala, nk15
Which kinda makes me think i have to include one of ari/dats

I kinda think scum is in fire, mala, nk15
Which kinda makes me think i have to include one of ari/dats

would like greater explanation of this please

Which bit? I see no strong reason to townread fire/mala/nk15. That's 3 players, with 6 remaining. If i exclude those 3 i need to include one of ari/dats to get to 5

(And my current coalition i think is exactly pl - fire/mala/nk15 - ari/dats)

my boss is in the office today...are you my boss?

Logic checks out. I like 432 a lot actually

And i'm kinda liking dats' posts from today too. I suppose out of fire/mala/nk15/ari/dats i would probably feel the most comfortable with dats in the coalition

My wife sprained her ankle today so I'll be taking care of the kids more this week so I'll be posting less, @everyone

oh no i hope she's OK!!!

~

also i'm kinda liking fire more now idk
i'm worried i'm townreading someone i shouldn't be

mb fire's just right i dunno now :<

i'll be happy to sheep whatever you decide to skitter <3

brain feel mushy

also would prefer we get a decision in b4 we get 3 days on the clock.

pedit my brain is mushy too >.>
i think rn i'm healing me/irrel/mena std and am thinking abt adding dats
is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

I don't have any objections to that.

I think you probably have a better read on mena than I do.

no? i mean i have a lot of respect for your scumgame but that's also not what i said

~
wrt ari: i'm feeling very wary of her, both for the early game + generally her scumgame is scary + i haven't seen anything that i think is out of her range / makes me strongly think town
and i'm probably going to get to a faster/more comfortable townread on dats than ari in this timeframe

it's worth considering that in an ari-scum world, the only chance skitter has of forming a pure coalition is in adding fire, because mala/nk15 were never getting added, and i think given thread temperature at the time people were generally cold on fire and std - i don't think the offer to sheep is a particularly risky one if mafia because the chances of skitter making a pure coalition and having it pass are very low. as such it isn't clearing in my eyes

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...I have a bad feeling that it isn't Ari or Fire. Idk. I got a really weird feeling when they both cross examined me at the same time. Ari feels really set on Fire being scum and thinking that I'm town. Fire on the other hand admitted they don't know who to push, which feels too blunt to come from scum who's in a very small PoE and needs to survive.

I still don't think it's Blood though. And STD still feels gut town. Something's off.

well then obviously you've poe'd the mafia and are voting them

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but in all seriousness, if you're stuck, then reread take into consideration the arguments other people are making, ask people about stuff


fwiw i don't place a ton of emphasisvalue on play this phase it's very easy for a solo mafia to blend in and act town-like

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i can't get over posts like this though:

fen is it over?

this is what i mean by feeling genuine and it's hard to believe she's lying

i'll be honest posts like this are trivially easy for someone of even modest experience to fake, they don't do a whole lot for me

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VOTE: aristeia

don't have a ton more to say. i'm not thrilled by roden's last post but if you vote him out today and he's town i probably just just vote fire tomorrow

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i'm tired

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if you lim me today are you suggesting that fen/roden sheep me tomm or you think maybe I don't know what I am talking about?

yes if you're town i'm sheeping you

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UNVOTE:

meh w/e

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i was trying to strongarm the elim but did it in a half-assed way

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I mean Roden has self voted and fucked off from the thread

are you really scumreading that

VOTE: aristeia

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I still think it is fireisredsir but I won't be upset if you chose to vote out roden tommorrow instead

if you're town i'll sheep you

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i don't think i was ever going to get there on std, sorry

well played to him & datisi