open 852: store bought potions (sold!)

[The toad]

hello friends

Will start catching up now and get some reads

It's Melo with 4 days left so will try and be quick

[The toad]

Ok started with that end of day 1

Seemed like a chaotic mess

Want to say kittytacky is town because the elim being left that late implies scum doesn't really care who it is

There's definitely associative reads there too but I'm not at the point where I'm working with scumteams yet

[The toad]

VOTE: Std fuck this game i'm out just kill me and find me town already

just kill me and find out that all my weird opinions come from a place of truth already

lim me i'm town i'm right in my belief

Reading through d2.

This comes across incredibly theatrical

[The toad]

VOTE: hem

sheeping roden because why not

Ok yeah not liking STD here.

This gives me vibes that he isn't partnered with Roden if scum.

[The toad]

I’m trying to stay calm but it makes me want to bash my head into a wall that no one but Flean Roden and us are seeing what HEM is doing. I haven’t decided what STD is yet but my vote is never fucking moving as long as I’m alive in this game and any of you who get swayed by HEM, it’s on you if we lose this.

Flea, Roden, us=GOATS

~M

I think HEM is setting up 1v1s btween us and STD, STD and Kitty and maybe us and NM and/or Kitty/NM as well?

~M

Maybe I'm being too naive here since Nancy is an experienced player but I get townvibes from this, she really does come across convinced that she sees the truth and everyone else is blind to it. Especially the bit about HEM setting up all those 1v1s.

This also comes across as an anti-associative with Roden (first quote)

[The toad]

called your bluff

I assure you I’m dead serious. On the pretty much non-existent chance you’re actually town, I will gladly volunteer to be the d3 elim.

Hmmmmm

[The toad]

Just elim the slot

Ok really don't like notmafia either

[The toad]

Scum be coasting here? I know I'm more active than your average bear, but this feels slow

OK, have read at least some portion of the game now.

Feeling kittytacky, johnny, dwlee town

STD and Notmafia are scummy

Roden and Enchant idk

That's my starting point, subject to change
.

[The toad]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Just gotta take the leap I guess.

I was going to be paranoid of this but then I remembered the deadline and

Yeah I can see where Roden is coming from here

[The toad]

Well maybe I'm a tiny bit paranoid anyway. Roden you call NM a hard town read in 2161. You dialled that back by saying you might be wrong but why vote him here?

I am a tiny bit worried NM is the dedicated miselim for today but also he seems like he's openwolfing so maybe I should just ISO him and then report back.

[The toad]

Well I finished ISOing not Mafia and I was hoping to come sort of like awesome conclusion about how he's definitely scum or like definitely town being targeted but like, his ISO just kind of sucks?? He just tunnels johnny slot and kitty and then votes FB and HEM out of nowhere.

I don't know what I expected really...

Since I townread Johnny and kitty I guess that makes this more likely to be scum NM.

[The toad]

Enchant why is it Roden, I tried ISOing you in case I forgot the reasoning but didn't see any.

I like his last post, broadly agree with the thoughts on NM today, especially that he might be antispewing wolf.

I definitely need convincing if you and NM are both town here

[The toad]

Is Nm/STD/Enchant too easy?

[The toad]

It sounded like Johnny was claiming harmography potion unless I'm misunderstanding the mech of it

[The toad]

I was going to dispute that it was a slip but Enchant does say 'telling' implying NM did it voluntarily. Probably should have kept my mouth shut about the harmography thing.

[The toad]

I mean I guess it could just be weird wording since Johnny's reveal came before Enchant's post.

It's a bit of evidence towards nm/Enchant though.

[The toad]

Is there a reason you really townread STD? I disliked his d2

[The toad]

I mean you did say he felt really genuine earlier but that's not something I can engage with since I don't see it personally

Also fmpov he's been pushing a townslot in Melo and I think if he were town mafia would use that to push against me more than they have been doing

[The toad]

Is there a reason you really townread STD? I disliked his d2

I mean you did say he felt really genuine earlier but that's not something I can engage with since I don't see it personally

Also fmpov he's been pushing a townslot in Melo and I think if he were town mafia would use that to push against me more than they have been doing

His Day 1 play just felt agenda-less to me. He did a heavy amount of AtE when it wasn't really necessary that could've easily gotten him voted out. He also did this weird emotional manipulation with me that also felt unnecessary if he were scum.

if we're just claiming

i JK'd kitty last night

Depending on his claimed action N2, his N1 action seems townie.

Kitty. I claimed to JK him so he could literally claim any potion action if he believed me

True but I’ve already said I tr him, so why pocket me?

So what is your take re: HEM/Roden? Still think TYT?

Yes

This also seems townie + he didn't push me after the HEM green flip, so it's consistent with what he'd said.

I think I disagree most strongly with the part about him calling Roden Vs HEM TvT being towny. He labels the argument and quickly goes back on it, voting HEM just to 'sheep Roden'. Maybe I need to review the context, but at the time it felt like he was opportunistically changing his read to conveniently join the HEM wagon.

I also generally feel like AtE is not a reliable towntell and STD's just didn't read as genuine to me personally.

In all fairness jailkeeping Kitty N1 if he was widely scumread is somewhat towny, and I can't comment much on his d1 play since I wasn't there

[The toad]

in these crack commandments i'm moses yeah

d2 final

humaneatingmonkey (6):

Venus And Mars, Gamma Emerald, Save The Dragons, KittyTacky, Roden, Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia (1):

Dwlee99

Save The Dragons (1):

humaneatingmonkey

not voting (2):

Flea The Magician, Enchant

with 10 alive, it took 6 to meet me up in heaven.

Would generally expect at least 2 scum on the HEM wagon I think. If my reads are offbase it could be basically anything since most players were on this wagon, but this implies it's not Enchant/Dwlee/X at the very least

[The toad]

I was questioning how wise it was to designate Dwlee as town since they have been pushing NM but not now when it really matters and I didn't like their most recent posts, but yeah that's turning me away from thinking NM/Enchant/Dwlee at the very least. So if STD is town I think my reads have to be seriously offbase somewhere else.

[The toad]

VOTE: Enchant I am doing this assertively

Ehhh

Enchant is so coin flip

The toad
Enchant
Save The Dragons
Roden

Contains two scum imo

At least**

I do think this looks super super aligned though. Dwlee called out toad/Enchant/Roden as the scumteam earlier and now they have the scumpool as that plus STD who they were hard townreading. I would expect them to be way more enthusiastic about their top townread voting Enchant than "eh, Enchant is a coinflip."

Maybe Dwlee is framing Enchant? Although that feels overthinky. I should at least go check if the associatives between NM/STD/Dwlee are there.

[The toad]

Damn I wish you'd said that earlier, would've saved me a lot of time

[The toad]

STD what do you think of NM/Dwlee/Enchant

[The toad]

im starting to get to a point where we should flip probably anybody. if they're scum, great, if they're not, well then we won't have to play this game much longer

Maybe I overestimated how much effort I should be putting into this game.

[The toad]

We also don't need to solve the entire game this phase, just flip one scum at a time, because scum can't guaranteed kill every night

I know we don't have to solve the entire game this phase. But I wanted to use associatives to help solve the best elimination for today

[The toad]

Fuck it

VOTE: Not Mafia

If this is town we just lose

I don't think I'm going to die even if this is scum, but if I do I think based off recent events Dwlee is a FANTASTIC elimination for tomorrow and works extremely well as a not_mafia partner, if Roden thinks it's Enchant over STD, I'm willing to let him have that one given he has a better understanding of the early game and STD outright townreading all the scummy players is almost too-scummy to be scum territory.

[The toad]

My case on Dwlee is

I expect scum to bus and distance fairly regularly. If I'm right about Johnny and Roden being town, and I would definitely be surprised if either was scum here, town was heavily pushing town HEM on d2. It would make sense for mafia to continue bussing there and Dwlee kept on pushing NM. As soon as we got to MELO, Dwlee rethinks NM, and goes for a lim on my slot instead. From my perspective it makes perfect sense for scum Dwlee to do this since I'm pretty sure Gamma was fairly widely scumread. Now that NM is looking more and more likely to face the lim here Dwlee changes course again and says NM scum claimed. None of this is impossible to come from town but it's all extremely convenient for scum Dwlee's goals.

I also think the whole deal with Johnny's enchant vote and Dwlee's negative response to it was very strange especially since Dwlee had been non committal about their push beforehand, only vaguely suggesting to lim Gamma who they didn't seem to suspect much more than Enchant for their posting. So despite the HEM wagon that would imply NM/Dwlee/Enchant. But I think it's scummy regardless of Enchant's alignment just because it seems incoherent with a town Delete perspective.

Pedit: because it looks like NM is going down and starting to antispew

[The toad]

I mean it's not like it's impossible you're town but I'd need you to make a convincing case on someone else instead

[The toad]

Enchant is hard to read I guess. It seems like he's just been tunneling Roden and Kitty all game. Usually I would say one of those would be his partner, but I don't think Roden is a wolf here and he voted Kitty at the end of d1, so I'm not really sure.

I guess the takeaway I got from reading Enchant's ISO is that I shouldn't be confident in the NM/Dwlee/Enchant team just because he never seems to comment much on either and I'm not sure how often scum actually behaves in that way. I'm more inclined to see him as partnered with STD seeing as he seemed to temporarily shade STD at one point during d2 and then drop the read.

Idk it doesn't need to be solved now. I doubt scum will kill me so we can resolve STD/Dwlee/Enchant tomorrow, seeing as it's clearly not going to be a simple task

[The toad]

I guess I should be doing more due diligence regarding kitty, Roden and Johnny too?

I just don't think Kitty is aligned with NM or Enchant based on what I've seen, and he seems decently town in general. That said I would like to hear his thoughts on people who aren't NM more. If NM is town I guess it could be something like Kitty/STD/Dwlee but I don't think I could ever bring myself to let NM survive to endgame here so...

Johnny and Roden if they are wolf they probably just win. I thought the Venus and Mars slot was really town and I vibe with Johnny, I didn't strongly townread Roden really through but his posts since I replaced in have seemed really town. It's not IMPOSSIBLE I am wrong on these slots but if I am someone else is gonna have to come in and save the game.

Writing this has not convinced me I need to rethink any of these players so that's cool I guess

[The toad]

NM/Dwlee/Enchant

This is it.

Wait NM didn't claim? Oof.

Like look at this

Oh I missed that, was the slip actually real LOL

[The toad]

Ok yeah I don't see how it's not at least NM/Enchant/X

[The toad]

Honestly I kind of forgot about the setup element of this. That's a good point, if a town elim seems impossible I can see Enchant trying to draw the elim to himself.

Or maybe he's just trying to antispew and let Scum #3 carry the game idk

[The toad]

Thank fuck that wasn't part of a quickhammer LMAO

Yeah I lean towards dwlee but won't be confident anytime soon, feel free to end the day whenever, I'm probably done for today

[The toad]

NM is just scum here right? I mean I don't think harmography potion would pick up a jailkeep action. Or am I misunderstanding?

But yeah JK/harm/etc should be on Enchant imo.

[The toad]

I mean, NM is probably just scum bullshitting then. That would make Kitty confirmed town too actually.

[The toad]

Unless it's NM/Kitty/Johnny but lol. I think this really just comes down to STD or Dwlee in 3p or 4p elo. If we could somehow lim both mechanically that would be ideal.

[The toad]

I think scum push their partners very frequently, and I can definitely see scum pushing their partner in a situation where there was a massive TvT going on in the background. You expecting this to be taken as clearing evidence reinforced your motivation to do this. If you could be proven to have actually harm potioned NM I would believe that I suppose.

[The toad]

GG, thanks for modding Schadd. I probably didn't change the outcome of this game but I had fun for the time I was here.

[The toad]

I think the setup is interesting. Seems like it's extremely important for town to eliminate at least one mafia member early, since that makes mafia less able to kill and strengthens the jailkeeper power at the same time.