Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Ausuka]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

[Ausuka]

Open 853 - Pick Your Power X/Y: Hint of Something_Smart

moderator:

Datisi

|

backup moderator:

GeorgeBailey

|

designers:

Hoopla

,

the worst

,

Something_Smart

player list:

1. implosion
   
   
2. Harley Quinn
   
3. Gamma Emerald
   
   
4. Malakittens
   
   
5. Roden
   
   
6. Enchant
   
   
7. Dwlee99
   
   
8. humaneatingmonkey
   
   
9. Bellaphant
   
   
10. Ausuka
    
    
11. Klick
    
    
12. Aristeia
    
    
13. Save The Dragons
    
    
14. Titus

bold = confirmed, asterisk = prod, strike = replaced

alive players:

Spoiler:

1. implosion
   
2. Harley Quinn
   
3. Gamma Emerald
   
4. Malakittens
   
5. Roden
   
6. Enchant
   
7. Dwlee99
   
8. humaneatingmonkey
   
9. Bellaphant
   
10. Ausuka
    
11. Klick
    
12. Aristeia
    
13. Save The Dragons
    
14. Titus

dead players:

Spoiler:

1. nobody, for now.

events & votecounts:

Spoiler:

1. nothing, for now.

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

this will exist at some point

if I were to pick the mafia draft I'd go something like 1, 19, 51

[Ausuka]

well actually a town did apparently pick 21 recently I missed that one, I think my point still makes sense though

I think this is actually the fewest number collisions that have ever happened in the draft in this setup - out of the 17 other runs of the game I see one that had 5 people colliding and one that had 6, but this takes the cake with only 4, and most of them had like... in the vicinity of 8-9 people who picked the same number as someone else.

This could theoretically be meaningful in some useful way but probably isn't.

Why do you think it isn't meaningful? I know it's difficult to draw concrete conclusions but isn't it at least worth looking at during RVS? It seems like a major anomaly to me

[Ausuka]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

Well I am using the chart that Andante posted in the previous PYP game.

It shows that out of 39 scum selections in 13 games - only one time has scum ever picked a number that is above 100 - I do not think the scum team would give up so much picking power to the townside and send more than 1 person to 100+ in number.

As we happen to have 4 players picking numbers above 100, I believe it is likely we have at most 1 scum and possibly none at all and it's a fairly fun way to narrow POE early.

As you noted in a later post, scum might have rarely done this but the same is true for town. I think that this game being so highly unusual makes most sense if it's a result of scum influence, since they're co-ordinating picks. Which is why I'm suspicious of the 'scum wouldn't pick numbers this high' narrative - my best bet is that there's 2 scum among these people, although I wouldn't rule out 3

If true this probably backfired on scum a little, since they were probably betting on town getting more duplicates than we ended up having. If you look at it from the perspective of 'usually there's a lot of duplicates and just not being in a duplicate leaves you fairly high on the list' it makes more sense as a scum strategy

[Ausuka]

Yeah

[Ausuka]

I mean don't get me wrong I see why that seems unlikely, but as you say there's a wifom element to it - 'scum wouldn't be so crazy as to do this, so it's impossible'

The facts are that the draft is highly unusual in a way that was already scum-indicative for high numbers imo, and you've been playing around it in a weird way

[Ausuka]

Outside the whole ari situation, I like Bella and Gamma the most so far - early days but they feel like they're sorting genuinely. Implo is my other scumread currently, he makes pretty good analysis posts about the draft but seems to be constantly playing it down - I can see town not placing much importance in the draft for sure, but something about the combination of insightful analysis and then not doing anything with it or pushing anyone pings me a little bit.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka, what’s your pfp supposed to be?

Ashe Bradley from Witch's Heart

[Ausuka]

1, 4, 4

might be a scum claim answer

it's a bit like Danganronpa I guess? It's a murder mystery/visual novel thing

[Ausuka]

sidenote: I have fat fingers so if you ever see me quote something that doesn't make sense in context I probably pressed Q+ by accident

Also Gamma if you want to talk more about witch's heart we should probably do it outside the gamethread haha

[Ausuka]

It's true that town can pick high numbers as well, and we know at least one player did. The reason I'm suspicious of the high numbers is because there's way more of them than usual. Since town pick individually and scum co ordinate, an anomaly like this is likely to be caused by scum, at least in part - you wouldn't expect town choices to be too different in any given game, whereas scum choices are dependent on their strategy. Combine that with Ari bringing up the idea that we should make the assumption of zero or possibly one scum in the high numbers and I think it's reasonable to be suspicious of her.

[Ausuka]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I'm aware scum did something similar in a past run of this setup, open 732, so I don't see it as silly

[Ausuka]

idk if it is; i do want to hear ap's input if possible before deadline since he's a lot better at this than me

i think it has the advantage of completely fucking with associatives (seriously, what scumteam does that???) and people like ruru and maybe sando will spend an insane amount of time going through older games and comparing the draft spread to what happens here and looking for patterns in what numbers scum picked, cept this completely goes outside all patterns and will just give a bunch of false positives that won't actually lead back to us.

like people will spend a lot of time discussing this but it won't actually lead anywhere and they might actually partner-clear us on draft-nomics

And as I mentioned the number of high picks is very unusual in this game

That's not to say it's somehow certain this happened, but I definitely think it's a reasonable starting point for today

[Ausuka]

Does it really make a difference if it's 42 or 128? The point is that they picked numbers high enough that they can reasonably expect to 1) be behind other players who weren't duplicated, and 2) be ahead of all the duplicates.

@Harley, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76766 for the game thread, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=76763 for the scum PT which is probably more useful in this instance

[Ausuka]

Not really? Read the scum PT I linked, they were explicitly trying to be the highest numbers and succeeded.

[Ausuka]

Again, they were trying to pick large numbers, and they were the three highest numbers in practice. The mindset in the scum PT is far more important than the specific numbers they chose. Obviously I'm not saying this game is an exact replica of that game - I'm saying that the argument 'this would stand out and be suboptimal, therefore scum didn't do it' is wrong

[Ausuka]

feel free to propose an alternative

[Ausuka]

I'm voting ari because this is a really pointless way to generate content that looks towny on the face of it and now people are contributing stuff, me included, that is totally nai about something that is nai.

I've talked about my reasoning for scumreading Ari here - why is it wrong and where should we be looking instead? I don't know that it's helpful to just call it NAI

[Ausuka]

It's like the mechanical talk at the start of any open game - easy for scum to participate in in a way that helps them blend in, a lot of the time.

This is exactly the issue I have with your early posts - you contributed to the mechanical discussion but never used that for reads. It's fine to believe there's no way to push someone based off the draft because it's NAI but if that's the case I wouldn't expect someone to make several posts contributing to the draft analysis. It helps you blend in and doesn't start alignment based discussion

Enchant could be scum but I'm reluctant to try and lynch the top draft Day 1

[Ausuka]

* Lim, sorry, I haven't played in 3 years but I'll try and think before hitting submit in future

[Ausuka]

But I did try to start alignment based discussion - I threw it out there in case someone else had a conclusion they could draw from it. And I did start giving reads for other reasons.

Sure it's possible for someone else to pick it up, but I think it's still mildly scum indicative to do setup analysis and repeatedly dismiss its importance

[Ausuka]

quote="In post 194, humaneatingmonkey"]i have to say this out loud but i want to ask other people what they feel about ari's position because right now all im seeing is manipulative scum[/quote]
I can see Ari doing the rqs thing as either alignment I think? I wouldn't do the RQS thing in the first place but like, if I did I probably wouldn't pursue it if I felt like people weren't playing along. I don't think it's gross for you to question it though

[Ausuka]

i have to say this out loud but i want to ask other people what they feel about ari's position because right now all im seeing is manipulative scum

I can see Ari doing the rqs thing as either alignment I think? I wouldn't do the RQS thing in the first place but like, if I did I probably wouldn't pursue it if I felt like people weren't playing along. I don't think it's gross for you to question it though

I suck at posting

[Ausuka]

Sorry, RQS was probably a misleading word to use for it, although I hope you at least see why I would refer to it as that

I inferred from HEM's post that he isn't calling you an asshole, but if he thought this information was alignment relevant he would pursue it, and is therefore confused why you're choosing not to? Which makes it seem like a difference in playstyle more than anything

[Ausuka]

What even is the purpose of that, Ari? Would that help you read us? If not, shouldn't you be appealing to those who wouldn't answer or at least try and convince them?

@Ari; he wants you to pursue the line of questioning by appealing to people who refused to answer to do it

While it's not what I'd do in your position it's not an asshole thing to do imo and I don't think it's a scummy line of questioning for HEM to take particularly

Sorry if I'm being unhelpful btw since I know HEM is here and can speak for himself I'm just trying to de-intensify the situation I guess

[Ausuka]

Thought 1: I would like Dwlee to take some stances on some people.

I was thinking this earlier, he had a scummy pop-in but I wanted to see if he would start scumhunting on his own if he was left alone

Not scumreading implosion anymore

[Ausuka]

Thought 1: I would like Dwlee to take some stances on some people.

I was thinking this earlier, he had a scummy pop-in but I wanted to see if he would start scumhunting on his own if he was left alone

Not scumreading implosion anymore

*They sorry I should be much better about this

[Ausuka]

hem, do you have any reads currently other than aristeia-scum and gamma-town (and any others I may have missed in a brief iso-skim)?

And do you make anything of the new people jumping on your wagon?

I like these posts from implo, they are basically what came to mind for me as well and his posts feel like they have a towny thought process, he's a townread for me now

@Ari, I answered 1, 19, 51. You can extrapolate that to be like, 1 16 216 if it needs to be numbers that were actually selected. It's not like I just refused to do it

I feel like i'm being misconstrued about the argument I was making - I wasn't pushing Ari for asking 3 numbers, I explicitly think that's NAI, my push was about something else entirely (the draft was anomalous and I think pushing to townread the high numbers is a strange position for town to take and could benefit the scum wincon). Maybe I miscommunicated but multiple people seemed to understand what I was saying even if they didn't agree with it

[Ausuka]

W/ hem - I disagree with most of the points outlined I think. While my perspective might be biased since i'm the one HEM is supposed to be copying, I think the scum motive for pushing the 'high numbers are town' narrative is much clearer than the town motive, and while I disagree with the line of questioning he had about Ari's 3 numbers thing, I don't think it's something that can only come from scum here. Like Ari makes a good case for why the point is wrong but I don't think it makes a good HEM scumcase, I can see town looking at Ari dropping her activity having pushed it so hard and then think, 'ok what's up with that, if you can give it up so easily it was probably busywork' if that makes sense

I am a little curious why HEM came into the thread telling me to shut up about numbers and then went on with similar talking points though

If I were to call you scum it wouldn’t be for that
But like, it’s been proven that scum have gambitted on high numbers before
So what make you think a high number is more likely town?

because scum want to pick before town does; order matters very much to them.

If a scum player picks a PR, that's a PR that a town player can't get.

I find the probability of a "collision" to be very low when you get out to the double digits.

Imo if you pick something between 20 - 40 you are very very unlikely to be collided with.

When you pick a number that is higher than 100, you're basically ceding priority in the pick order to every two digit number without really gaining much in terms of "less collision probability" so I find these picks to be more likely to come from town than scum.

I think it's more likely that a town player would pick a very large out there number rather than a scum player because there are more players in the scum PT and one of them is likely to say "well why dont you pick like 25 instead of 212?"

There's also the sense that you're working as a team to come up with picks that fit your strategy rather than a town player just picking whatever number they happen to like.

Ari I'm curious about this post. I mean, I think it's always best for town to be as high up the draft as possible, to deny scum PRs and increase the likelihood of town PRs, hence why I chose 2. You seem to agree with me here, saying the reason you think it's town indicative is because scum would discuss the issue and then be less likely to do it

But you seem like a smart person who's thought about draft mechanics - if you believe that it's suboptimal to pick a high number, why do it, and why then call HEM out for the same thing (believing it to be suboptimal but choosing a high number anyway)? Am I missing something here?

[Ausuka]

Just choose PGO

But ok I think that's a fair answer for why you chose a high pick

[Ausuka]

I can see town looking at Ari dropping her activity having pushed it so hard and then think, 'ok what's up with that, if you can give it up so easily it was probably busywork' if that makes sense

I don't think I gave up particularly easily.

I made multiple posts trying to convince everyone to give me three numbers for example:

45 57 58 76 80 115 121


I gave up because it was fairly clear to me that people were not interested in the thought experiment and I have no desire to twist people's arms into doing something they are not interested in doing.

I mean I don't scumread you for this, I just think it's possible for town to look at your most recent posts at the time and have that thought process, if that makes sense

[Ausuka]

I'm not against flipping enchant because in 6/13 of Ari's games scum picked 1, and that isn't factoring in only games where anyone picked 1

VOTE: Dwlee99

This really seems like an artificial post that doesn't really scumhunt - while Enchant is far from obvtown they don't even appear to take into consideration the fact that limming the player top of the draft carries obvious major risks, and the fact that in most of these games many town players picked 1

I also don't like the rest of their play this game - scummy pop ins and a blankvote on HEM right after Ari's case. While it's definitely possible for town to look at the case on HEM and be like 'yeah looks good' combined with the rest of their play the fashionable vote rubs me the wrong way

[Ausuka]

Why do you expect me to put every thought I have into my posts

I don't, I would expect you to talk about why you think it's a good idea to lim a guaranteed PR though if you're trying to make a push

I'm sure scum!dwlee (why does this autocorrect to delete the words aren't even similar) does realise the implications of what they're doing, but they don't have as much reason to care or explain their thought process because they don't actually care about the push they're making

[Ausuka]

ok but think about all the associatives you could get from a Dwlee wagon

[Ausuka]

well I don't know your mindset but most less active people seem to dislike talking about HEM/Ari because it's like somewhat related to the numbers situation from earlier

the dwlee wagon 1) makes sense imo and 2) steers discussion to a place where people have more options on what wagons to comment on and therefore are more likely to have something to say, making slots more solvable (This probably includes associatives)

Hopefully I don't get told this wagon is bad because Dwlee mentioned numbers in his post

What do you say

[Ausuka]

*their. I am very sorry I keep typing wrong words

From now on before hitting submit I will just pause to read over everything I wrote and make sure I didn't make any obvious errors

[Ausuka]

It means you should vote Klick

If you vote hem and they flip and I'm wrong, you get my vote tmo Gamma.

Why should I vote HEM?

He's shopping for a counter when he's the top.

How does this differ from expected town!hem behaviour? Is town him not going to look at alternatives? Am I missing something here

Also would you mind elaborating on your dwlee read

[Ausuka]

i have to say this out loud but i want to ask other people what they feel about ari's position because right now all im seeing is manipulative scum

No

It’s too soon for me to have a read on Dwlee but this post doesn’t look scummy to me. If Ari were to flip scum, I’d obviously need to re-evaluate this but on the whole, she seemed sincere even if I didn’t really agree with her high numbers’ thing.

I think nobody but HEM saw Ari as manipulative there, the scummy part is Dwlee showing up to say something uncontroversial and then leaving without them doing much in the way of actual scumhunting, if that makes sense. That's what I mean by a scummy pop in

[Ausuka]

Hi I just wanted to say that the reason I have been inactive since math replaced in is because he replaced in at 1am??? What do you want from me

Also I'm reluctant to talk too much about PRs but I will say I agree with implosion on pretty much everything and also the best way to do mechanics in this setup is to look at what players actually did in previous runs instead of trying to like theoretically predict it imo

I am also thinking town HEM currently, I remember really liking STD's posting, Roden feels bleh to me but it's awkward to push both Roden and Dwlee at the same time because they're probably not scum together

I am confused by people doing associative VCA in the middle of d1 (Titus and mathblade iirc) I assume this is a playstyle thing from how no one else commented on it though, so

Will have more to say later after my exam

[Ausuka]

Eh actually no I'm tired and wrong

I agree with implosion's recent posts about Enchant's possible role picking and the Ari/math argument

I still don't want to flip Enchant today though because I feel like even though a strong potential upside exists it's not worth the downside, even though I disagree with a lot of stuff Ari was saying I think I actually like her strategy more

This makes me feel slightly better about her early game because it seems like she sees mechanics very differently to me in general

[Ausuka]

I will confess to having never played with Aristeia before but I will be shocked if she has never been wrong about reads in early day 1 as town and I wouldn't classify being wrong day 1 as bad play either?

[Ausuka]

Hi I just wanted to say that the reason I have been inactive since math replaced in is because he replaced in at 1am??? What do you want from me

Also I'm reluctant to talk too much about PRs but I will say I agree with implosion on pretty much everything and also the best way to do mechanics in this setup is to look at what players actually did in previous runs instead of trying to like theoretically predict it imo

I am also thinking town HEM currently, I remember really liking STD's posting, Roden feels bleh to me but it's awkward to push both Roden and Dwlee at the same time because they're probably not scum together

I am confused by people doing associative VCA in the middle of d1 (Titus and mathblade iirc) I assume this is a playstyle thing from how no one else commented on it though, so

Will have more to say later after my exam

Good luck on the exam!

Thanks! It's a maths exam, seems like it would be your forte, unfortunately it's not mine

[Ausuka]

Damn that's the first time I've ever been scumread for being bad at maths

Yeah idk I've been doing it for the past 2 years and tried really hard to get it, I wouldn't even say I'm terrible at it but it would definitely take a lot more time than I have at my current education level to understand it, if that makes sense. My brain probably isn't wired for maths very much although I do believe anyone is capable of doing anything with lots of effort

Game related discussion, if we were going to BOP Ari it would make more sense to do it on HEM probably, I'm just really not convinced she can't get into TvTs as town

I'm a bit surprised by some people you didn't mention in your associative spec tbh. Gun to your head, Dwlee or Roden is a wolf, which one is it?

Pedit: Strongly agree with implosion here tbh, it's only been like three days since the game started

Also I should probably like actually do revision now but I will be back later

[Ausuka]

Ari do you know me from ~the past~

[Ausuka]

hi, my exam schedule is very tight right now and I've had some mental health issues, I don't want to lurk out of dats' game so I'm going to try to keep up the best I can but I'm probably going to have to only engage lightly and hopefully I'll do a proper catch up later. Hopefully I'll be around for a bit to answer any questions.

I have read all the posts so far (albeit not in as much depth as I should have done) - I think STD's posting is fluid and genuine enough that I'm willing to townread him - I think I townread Bella's lynch pool just because it's so like, blatantly opportunistic and going out of her way to expand it to all the people under pressure like enchant and HEM seems a bit on the nose, if that makes sense

I'm not sure on math yet and probably need to put more time into sorting him. I am mildly suspicious of the read on me he gave tbh and iirc he scumread implo for a pretty similar reason (not behaving as town would in broad strokes even if it's more likely a matter of playstyle? Like I can't see implosion playing totally different as town and going around tunneling people) Math do you have any, like, examples of players who are nice as scum but not as town? Is that actually a thing that happens?

Titus I definitely see where your read on Roden is coming from but how is that not also true for Dwlee?

[Ausuka]

*limpool ugh I am so bad at this I actually stopped to look over that post as well and I missed it

[Ausuka]

Damn that's the first time I've ever been scumread for being bad at maths

huh?

I was referring to Math scumreading me for being nice regarding the whole maths conversation. I don't know Math's meta, but I would like a response to my question about like, how has that worked as a scumtell for him historically? because it didn't come off like a real read. I was similarly confused by the push on implo for not tunneling. I think Math is fairly towny otherwise, I like his push on dwlee obviously

[Ausuka]

Damn that's the first time I've ever been scumread for being bad at maths

huh?

I was pissed in general and Ausuka being nice about maths felt out of place tonally so she seemed sus.

Here it is.

Like are people just legit not reading my posts?

I read the post - I know it's about the same topic but I didn't really register it as a response to my question, firstly because it was a response to Gamma and secondly because you said at the time it was because "people aren't usually nice" - I was specifically asking if you had any like examples of using that kind of read in towngames or players being unusually nice as scum. Like, I'm more trying to read into your thought process than ask clarification, if that makes sense.

[Ausuka]

That works too

[Ausuka]

I'm suspicious about Dwlee's progression on HEM. They say in post 480 they're voting HEM to sheep Ari. It definitely comes across as a weak read, saying they were basically just voting HEM because Ari said so until they were able to put more effort into sorting. This is mostly fair but some of their later posts rub me the wrong way with this in mind - particularly this post,

MathBlade and HEM probably are SvS

Math just ignored my response to his terrible read on me

The preflip associative here doesn't feel natural imo. Their read on HEM doesn't seem to have advanced - at least, they haven't shown any visible effort to sort HEM in thread, and considering HEM has been the largest wagon for most of the game I'd expect them to talk about their read more if it had. So tying Mathblade and HEM together as a 'probable' scumteam feels too confident from Dwlee here, if that makes sense.

Math is scum 100%

Similarly with this, I understand how the Dwlee math read could come from town but like, the 100% thing seems way too far, much worse than the whole 'I really feel Dwlee is scum' thing Math did.

[Ausuka]

he's not making a big deal out of it

he said you were town once in a post

he only repeated it because bella and others asked him

I agree with Ari's take on this I think but the way HQ was afraid of pocketing from like quite a towny player which she was also townreading feels town I guess? I feel like scum HQ is more likely to take the townread from STD

Zzz I should have made time for this game earlier in the day I thought I would be much more awake than I actually am tbh

[Ausuka]

hi, really sorry about playing so terribly this game lmao, I didn't want to be like this but irl is really kicking my ass and it's hard to like think clearly and sort people, I'm going to try and catch up to the current page and if anyone has questions about my opinions on like a specific thing I'll do my best to look into it and answer

Okay we made it!

I have (sort of) read the game.

Whew.

I feel pretty good about HQ, Gamma, Dwlee, Aristeia being town.
Ausuka and Bellaphant also give me vaguely positive feelings but I'm not, like, solid. Kind of like ice cream, a weird not-quite-solid, not-quite-liquid amount of certainty!

Mmmm ice cream.

But yes!

The dwlee read seems most at odds with where other people might be at, but I think that Post 548 in particular comes from a town mindset, and in a similar way, Post 1184. I think it's a bit bold of scum to be outright "I like this person because they townread me!" in the way that Dwlee has, but it's an approach that feels consistent with how they are playing this game.

I might need to read over some things again, but when it comes to HEM I just feel... underwhelmed. If they flip scum I'd be like "yeah sure, that makes sense". If they flip town I'd be like "yeah sure, that makes sense". I just can't bring myself to feel stongly either way.

I do have a bit of a pet scumread in implosion. Particularly the insistence on being enthusiastic about the HEM wagon after being called out for exploring other options/being non-committal feels like more of a response to that than true progression of the read.

I love the ice cream analogy

That's kind of how I feel about hem too tbh, I'm leaning town a little bit although it's hard to explain, I guess I got bad vibes from the way the wagon built up

I somewhat see where you're coming from with Dwlee but I guess I just disagree scum would never just give a tr to someone for townreading them

[Ausuka]

As for Dwlee, you and Titus have opposing reads on them but I don't really understand why? I feel like that's something you can dig into here and feels really important for understanding the game state.

I like this from Roden I think? It feels like a good faith attempt to help a possible town Math

Pedit: I don't think my play was terrible when I was here but I've been starting to lurk and not really contribute to discussions since I've fallen behind

[Ausuka]

Those who genuinely think HEM is scum would want to stay on HEM scum. They wouldn’t destroy one wagon to move to a maybe wagon where some people townread me.

Ergo HEM is town and I am town

Restart RVS if you have to.

Or you’re both scum

Extremely likely but Math is flaming obvscum. To those of you doubting this look at his reasoning for pretty much any of his reads: Ausuka scum (before she got lured to the dark side) for being “nice”. Gamma because Mat couldn’t find town!Gamma early enough despite calling them both t/t, rofl and look at his STD progressiin. He went from apparently trying to wagon him to seconds later locktowning him right after STD claimed to want to gladiate him but Math had some secret mysterious reason (that would rival the Caramilk secret) for that 180 which he won’t reveal to us. I could go on and on.

I'm not sure what to make of Math rn but for what it's worth I'm pretty sure I was voting Dwlee before Math was

[Ausuka]

HEM, when you get the chance I'd like a better idea of your reads, especially on Mathblade. Would you still "die by" the townread there?

Also do you actually think Ari is scum? Your posting sounds like it but I don't get the impression that you really believe that.

--

Out of everyone here, implosion's play feels the most constructed. Every post feels like it's careful to not rock any boats too much, but when you really think about it there's nothing actually that town about implosion. I was first concerned when in Post 158 he dismissed Ausuka's suspicion of him (which I actually vibed quite a bit with when reading through) as "weird", which I know might seem like a trivial thing, but I think it's a pattern of how scum dismiss suspicion on them. A way of appearing not too bothered, not too defensive, whilst subtly discrediting the push on them. Because I don't think there was anytihng weird about Ausuka's posting at all.

I've already mentioned the shift from being "fine" with a HEM wagon but thinking about other options -> being enthusiastic about HEM scum and having more solidified reasons. Again implosion's explanation for this is logical, but the progression was really dissonant with my thought processes when reading the game. While HEM was posting I was feeling more suspicious of them, but then with the V/LA and explanation of their hospitalisation etc. it made their posting and pattern of posting make a bit more sense for me. I don't believe that town become MORE suspicious of someone for not posting reads AFTER finding out that they're actually V/LA due to being in hospital.

The other thing that has concerned me is the interaction with MathBlade. A lot of the response posts and questions from implo to Mathblade do not strike me as actually trying to sort mathblade, and seem more like trying to make Mathblade look bad (and again, very dissonant with the claimed "I can't read Mathblade, I'll let others sort him" approach.

I'm not sure if I agree with the implo read? (In the sense I would need to iso implosion to fully work out if I agreed with it, although I will say that since hem was absent at the time, I would expect implosion's real time thinking about the game, probably involving isoing hem for reads a few times, to differ from Wallflower's thinking doing a catch-up?) but I think this feels genuine from wallflower

[Ausuka]

I'm suspicious about Dwlee's progression on HEM. They say in post 480 they're voting HEM to sheep Ari. It definitely comes across as a weak read, saying they were basically just voting HEM because Ari said so until they were able to put more effort into sorting. This is mostly fair but some of their later posts rub me the wrong way with this in mind - particularly this post,

MathBlade and HEM probably are SvS

Math just ignored my response to his terrible read on me

The preflip associative here doesn't feel natural imo. Their read on HEM doesn't seem to have advanced - at least, they haven't shown any visible effort to sort HEM in thread, and considering HEM has been the largest wagon for most of the game I'd expect them to talk about their read more if it had. So tying Mathblade and HEM together as a 'probable' scumteam feels too confident from Dwlee here, if that makes sense.

Math is scum 100%

Similarly with this, I understand how the Dwlee math read could come from town but like, the 100% thing seems way too far, much worse than the whole 'I really feel Dwlee is scum' thing Math did.

You are so tunneled

Eh, I don't think I am, I think there's a decent chance you're town since I have low confidence in my reads here, I just consistently scumread your posts

[Ausuka]

I think Ausuka is town and wrong.

I mean I could be wrong here but like unless someone refutes my reasoning convincingly or Dwlee does something to change my mind I'm going to keep believing in it

[Ausuka]

Examples: His push on Dwlee has no substance behind it. He sr Gamma for “not having found town!him yet”, eventhough Gamma played identically in Koba’s mini normal where they were both town. He sr Ausuka for being “nice about maths” or something. When is being nice ever a valid scumtell and especially for Ausuka who - when is she not nice? His progression on STD went from STD lockscum to STD locktown in pretty much the blink of an eye. He posted that if ANY not ALL of Dwlee, Titus, Gamma flip scum, he would then put me or Implosive in hid PoE. However, I am now extremely confident all 3 are town.

And yes, his entire progression on HEM is not what I’ve experienced with town!Math ever. He initially called HEM his top townread but voted HEM under pressure from Aristelia. Town!Math would never allow his arm to be twisted like that to vote a genuine top tr like that. Town!Math is bullheaded and obstinate to a fault. He is also one of the most anti-survivalistic players as town and I don’t recall Math ever being willing to policy anyone. Sometimes town!Math actually gets it right like in Koba’s mini normal and other times very wrong as in White Flag but there is always substance to his reads no matter how outlandish it looks to others. ISO both games to contast them with this one. Town!Math overflows with conviction and is also consistent with his reads. Here, he seems to change his reads on a dime without rhyme or reason. Town!Math doesn’t change his reads easily and definitely never under pressure.

Also he switched his srs on both Ausuka and Ari when they either voted the way he wanted or tr him. He gave me shit for initially not voting but had no issue with bella not voting, eventhough I had the exact same reason for having not voted as she had.

He had STD and Roden as top trs but is now takinv that at least partially back with STD. He did something similar with Gamma. He referred to them both as T/T but now he’s suddenly scum because he couldn’t find town!him early enough.

There are just so many reasons why Math is scum here.

This post helped me see things a bit clearer and it makes me feel better about HQ, having never played with Mathblade before a lot of meta stuff went over my head so I appreciate this clears that up a little bit.

I do like some of the points here. Obviously there's the point about niceness which I already brought up - I don't think the line of questioning I had there is going to go anywhere so I'm left with my original feeling of 'it doesn't seem like a real thought.' it's fair to say people can often be aggro during games but I think being nice to someone who wished you good luck in your exam is fairly obviously NAI?

I will make a mental note to check Math's hem progression when I finish catching up, I feel like I've read both that it's a policy lynch of sorts and that he was pushed into it?

Pedit: Don't underestimate anime

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Mathblade

As long as Enchant doesn't have a literal innocent I am definitely down for this

Don't see why he's obvtown, I don't think it's that rare for scum to bus each other when going down

Don't think it's Titus here

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Mathblade

As long as Enchant doesn't have a literal innocent I am definitely down for this

Don't see why he's obvtown, I don't think it's that rare for scum to bus each other when going down

Don't think it's Titus here

Are you at all familiar with HEM!scum because dude is a master manipulator and by the EoD1 and post flip, Math looked exactly like a HEM buddy due to the optics. That means he isn’t.

HEM!scum would have set Math up to look good. The fact that he’s getting voted just convnces me of this more and more.

I link this for you if need be. You all really need to familiarize yourselves with HEM scum.

I mean, it's true that I'm not familiar with HEM scum? That being said I'm not sure he was necessarily present enough to set up Math well?

I understand if you think it's out of the blue, I'm just trying to work with the information I have which points to Math somewhat, I don't see a better place to start day 2

Pedit: yeah I'm also thinking I might try signing up for a micro next time lmao

also dats VCs are consistently great

[Ausuka]

Eh, I'd also love to have a chat with dweelee. @dweelee, throw some thoughts at me.

I have struggled with you and std - my reads on you are all over the place, Ive been really up front about that.

I guess it depends how much scum believed the math wagon was actually viable - obviously they'd prefer it over losing one of their own, so I don't think it's massively likely that there were /zero/ scum on it..as I said to Hq, it wouldn't surprise me if it was one on hem (I'm sure there must have been bussing, probably in the later half of the wagon), and one off totally, which also kind of reflects in the way the votes are just spaced. Is this unreasonable?

I feel like Bella's posts have been sort of sorty today? Guess it's not super strong but not picking up the scum vibes people have been laying down

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Mathblade

As long as Enchant doesn't have a literal innocent I am definitely down for this

Don't see why he's obvtown, I don't think it's that rare for scum to bus each other when going down

Don't think it's Titus here

Take a look here

There’s no reasons mentioned for why I am scum

Just that she is voting me and it’s not Titus

As for Dwlee, you and Titus have opposing reads on them but I don't really understand why? I feel like that's something you can dig into here and feels really important for understanding the game state.

I like this from Roden I think? It feels like a good faith attempt to help a possible town Math

Pedit: I don't think my play was terrible when I was here but I've been starting to lurk and not really contribute to discussions since I've fallen behind

Their last posts are a possible townread and an I don’t know.

A hasn’t actually stated why they think I am scum

That is hallmark scum dogpile

Ironically this post pretty much summarises the main reason I sr you - your points feel kinda contrived to the point they seem more like crafted to meet an agenda than real thoughts? I'm not sure how you can read my ISO and not think of one reason why I might be scumreading you here?

[Ausuka]

Fundamentally I don't think I could get enough insight into the game to call out every potential agenda scum could have. What I can do is look at posts that don't look like real town thoughts and think, they must be something else. If you think I'd be better off reads wise sheeping someone else who can do that, that's fair I guess but I don't see how anyone is meant to read me if I do that.

If you're asking me to speculate - seems like the most likely version of events is that scum Math is trying to just play and imitate town Math, and so tries to construct reads the best he can, but since he's scum and informed it's not quite the same and he makes an overly reachy read.

Re: why I'm scumreading you; we had that whole thing where you scumread me for being nice about something not game related, I called it out as seeming not genuine and asked you to expand on it, you said Gamma and Titus would back you up on reading people that way, and then Gamma proceeded to not do that and Titus is hard scumreading you? Also - you had that whole thing where you were playing with the idea of policy limming HEM after voting him while not changing your read, which gave me Bad Vibes

[Ausuka]

As for Dwlee, you and Titus have opposing reads on them but I don't really understand why? I feel like that's something you can dig into here and feels really important for understanding the game state.

I like this from Roden I think? It feels like a good faith attempt to help a possible town Math

Pedit: I don't think my play was terrible when I was here but I've been starting to lurk and not really contribute to discussions since I've fallen behind

To be clear since I think this is what you're referring to
This post means Roden is trying to help Math in the case Math is town

It's about reading Roden, not you

Although honestly everyone is possible town lol if I didn't think you were possible town still I wouldn't be talking to you like this

[Ausuka]

If I'm a cop I checked Titus

[Ausuka]

Fundamentally I don't think I could get enough insight into the game to call out every potential agenda scum could have. What I can do is look at posts that don't look like real town thoughts and think, they must be something else. If you think I'd be better off reads wise sheeping someone else who can do that, that's fair I guess but I don't see how anyone is meant to read me if I do that.

that's fair but I feel like what you're scumreading math for is that he doesn't think in a normal way and that's just how he is

I mean that's definitely possible, but idk I'm just trying to go off the info I have here

[Ausuka]

Also i think MATH is town.

So don't vote Math. Thanks.

I am not claiming anything.

Just thinking Math is town

I think unless Wallflower checks in and claims to have JK'd/RB'd Math, then Math and Titus are TvT. I say that because she's the only one left who hasn't checked in. It would make today super easy if she did block the kill, but if not it's looking like someone chose Doctor and saved someone. And in that case the Doc can conftown someone if necessary.

Huh would it make today super easy? I mean there's still no way of knowing if it was doc/JK/something else I guess that would block the kill right?

[Ausuka]

I'm so confused about this claims thing LMAO are we like massclaiming JK/rb and not that

Sorry if I missed a post

[Ausuka]

I'm so confused about this claims thing LMAO are we like massclaiming JK/rb and not that

Sorry if I missed a post

we are hypocopping

so everyone is claiming what their night result would be if they are ascetic cop

this way if someone dies and flips ascetic cop, we can look at their hypocop claim and know what their results are.

try to make it reasonable so that scum don't know like where the cop is

oh I was more talking about Roden and Math talking about the nightkill/jailkeep/roleblock situation, I've done a hypocop

[Ausuka]

I think it's safe for JK to claim a potential guilty since they can be protected by a Doc if they do exist. JK likely doesn't claim though if they targeted a town read slot. And in the case of us having a RB then they essentially have a hard guilty unless a potential JK also targeted a scummy slot.

Ok tbh I was thinking of doing this anyway since the draft system makes me transparently a PR so

Claim town Jailkeeper, I targeted Mathblade last night

I will have more to say later

[Ausuka]

jailkeeper doesn't prevent that does it?

i thought only alien did that

This is correct and if enchant has an inno he should clarify. He did explicitly say he wasn't earlier iirc but maybe I misinterpreted

It's not like a hard guilty or anything obviously but I think it's like enough evidence against math to want to lim him personally

[Ausuka]

I am not claiming anything.

I mean in my defense this seemed a lot like deconfirming the inno

[Ausuka]

I'm probably going to be asked why I targeted math - scum didn't pick multitasking so it always made sense to jail likely vanilla players imo to stop the kill. Math was at the very bottom and widely scumread so I thought he would be a good choice

I did worry about stopping a vig shot on Math but I thought it wasn't a preventable risk if I was going to target someone scummy

Pedit: well yes I want you dead, mostly because of the jailkeep thing honestly, I think that's reasonable

[Ausuka]

Btw if a lim goes through while I'm not here and it flips scum I'll target whichever of implo or math is still alive

[Ausuka]

I am Bulletproof.

Bruh.

Lol

I mean I probably don't want to lim enchant today because wifom but this shouldn't make it to elo imo

[Ausuka]

id rather pick vanilla townie than bullet proof in slot 1 as town because you soak a nightkill and cop goes somewhere else

bulletproof is such a bad pick

SOAKING A NIGHTKILL IS 100% A GOOD THING FOR TOWN

for what it may or may not be worth I agree with Ari's perspective here; BP is a weak role because it gets limmed a lot. Theoretically it could kind of work as draft 1 but not when you consider 1) you are actively depriving town of cop role and 2) Enchant's play day 1

Also thank you math and std <3

Pedit: this is the first run with BP in it iirc

I'm happy to plan targets conditional on a scumflip, but obviously without one I'll do whatever I feel like doing

[Ausuka]

current plan is jail math on scumflip except if the scumflip is math in which case I'm targeting implo btw

Just want to make that clear because d1 ended earlier than I thought it would

[Ausuka]

I mean in her defense I think it would be difficult to play more scummy than Enchant has if you tried

[Ausuka]

Maybe it's hypocritical since I already claimed but I don't really see the need for massclaim here, we out our remaining PRs without much direct benefit seemingly

[Ausuka]

This forces scum Ausaka to waste their JK on Roden to fake it.

So if Roden gets ascetic he knows scum in Asuaka or Enchant

If Roden doesn’t then Enchant is not ascetic and very likely bulletproof conf town.

or enchant comes in like "I'm town ascetic cop I was just trying to wifom"?

[Ausuka]

This forces scum Ausaka to waste their JK on Roden to fake it.

So if Roden gets ascetic he knows scum in Asuaka or Enchant

If Roden doesn’t then Enchant is not ascetic and very likely bulletproof conf town.

or enchant comes in like "I'm town ascetic cop I was just trying to wifom"?

And then I’ll be like “bruh”

I already got to that point tbh

[Ausuka]

I tolerated your defense of HEM but this defense of Enchant too is just more scum siding lol

Then vote me.

Confirm Enchant as BP town

Lock town unelimmable I am fine with that

you being vanilla town doesn't mean Enchant is BP town

It does because of the missing kill

not true there is probably a doctor

Then said doc would be on Roden if it exists. If doc goes rogue then another no kill happens possibly

But if Roden dies I am going to think doc doesn’t exist

so we lim you - you flip vanilla town

so doc protects roden

roden checks enchant finds he is not ascetic so possibly scum bulletproof

ausuka dies at night

ok what now

Town BP.

Not scum BP.

There was no kill.

So ergo Enchant is conf town and can be reevaluated at elo but not before

I don't think that's what conf town means

Don't think it's impossible for enchant to be scum BP either, being vig immune and making sure there's no cop has utility

(Could also just not have that slot I suppose, not bp or ascetic?)

[Ausuka]

But that has to be who scum shoot since Ari said scum would shoot there.

I'm sorry I'm not sure what this means. You think it's overwhelmingly likely scum shot Enchant so he's town?

Why couldn't scum just have shot hq

[Ausuka]

or scum shot mathblade

I'm joking mostly I have actually seen scum do something comparable before lmao

[Ausuka]

yes i bussed hem on d1 so i could claim doctor on d2 and never endgame

genius

Yeah uh I do think Ari is like obviously town here now

Pedit: ok but I'm not compelled to agree with Ari I think it's fairly likely scum would choose to shoot someone else given that enchant was like a highly potential miselim if town and also like possibly just scum, and apparently Ari also thinks that now, so

pedit: no really I played this one mini normal where like, there were 4 prs left in the game and the scum shot a claimed vanilla townie scumread by like basically everyone

[Ausuka]

Enchant	1	BP
Ausuka	2	JK
Harley Quinn	7
Bellaphant	9	VT confirming Ausuka
Gamma Emerald	14
implosion	16
Malakittens	216
Aristeia	512	doctor
humaneatingmonkey	800	goon
Titus	9999
Dwlee99	4
Roden	4	voyeur
Save The Dragons	8	VT
MathBlade	8	VT confirming either n3 vig or vengeful is present

night 3 vigilante	or	vengeful	Should be present
1-shot vigilante	or	2-shot PGO (active)
ascetic cop	or	bulletproof	Enchant
draft cop	or	1-shot watcher
doctor	or	roleblocker	Ari
universal backup	or	rolecop
neighborizer	or	voyeur	Roden
jailkeeper	or	tracker	Ausuka

Huh, I didn't really think about this yet but it makes it look like scum don't have a blocking role? I guess scum could have gone for jk but it sort of points to scum low in the draft I think?

[Ausuka]

My Dwlee/math team is in SHAMBLES right now

But yeah uh seems fairly likely we have a mafia vengeful? If it gets limmed in 7p or 5p elo mafia win the game so it's an alright pick for them

[Ausuka]

We're playing nightless now

I jailkept Wallflower btw

[Ausuka]

Nobody dead...? That's interesting.

I was wondering if I should wait to give my results, but I guess it would be obvious if I'm not auto voting Enchant. I got results, so yeah he's BP and needs to start playing more. Scum didn't shoot there btw, so either Doc or JK stopped the kill.

PE: Interesting, idk if scum makes Wallflower do the kill though since she's been getting sus'd recently.

Well, if not Enchant, I’m guessing Ausuka or Ari most likely targets?

Idk but I don’t believe scum no killed.

No one was sussing her yesterday, were they?

I don't see why scum would kill me here since it would only make sense for the doc to protect the jk

Probably want wallflower or enchant today I guess

[Ausuka]

The math flip makes me hesitant to say it but yeah it does seem like it must be wallflower this time

I'll be patient though

[Ausuka]

Maybe I'm being dumb but I have a hard time imagining scum choosing to shoot a jailkeeper over a doctor because the doctor might protect a voyeur instead when that doctor had claimed to be protecting a jailkeeper? Idk

[Ausuka]

VT submitting tracker

[Ausuka]

it's sort of "more logical" for scum to shoot Ari than Ausuka, but in reality it's a wifom 50/50. This is how any doc/jk setup works if they're both town - scum are forced to 50/50 shooting the doc vs the jailkeeper, while the jailkeeper 50/50s jailkeeping the doc or someone else.

This is not to say I think wallflower is a bad lim, though. I need to think more on that but probably not a bad lim.

It's true that I should always consider jailing ari but I wouldn't call it 50/50? Like I'm not saying it's impossible scum took the risk but it does seem more likely it's just wallflower

Honestly I don't have many things that ~stand out~ as scummy about her play except she's sort of been blending in and I feel like those players arguably flip red more than people I actively scumread

That being said I have actually been wrong about both of the flips so far so like... if someone like Ari has a case we shouldn't lim wallflower I am open to listening

I was going to make a readslist since my reads have changed but uh idk maybe as long as two scum are alive I should be a bit more private about my reads I guess?? So that scum can't guess who I'll jail

My one-scum-jails will be based on consensus reads anyway. So if we get a red lim on wallflower I'm jailing enchant. If we get a red lim on anyone else I'm jailing wallflower. (Act as though the last post I made talking about this at night-start is the current situation, obviously)

[Ausuka]

I feel like the whole concept of a fakeclaim isn’t really that relevant because scum imo are just as likely (probably more likely tbh) to actually just be the role that they’re claiming (except mafia instead of town)

I sort of agree with this I guess. Informed provides some flexibility to scum in terms of claims but I don't think anyone is particularly likely to have used it, it's obviously a possibility and something we should take into account but don't think we can practically speculate on this is what I'm trying to say.

I think the funniest world is that it's Wallflower/Titus and all 3 scum actually picked large numbers but Ari was town

[Ausuka]

Actually correct that to 'Upon a red flip I jail Enchant, if it's enchant I jail Wallflower'

Jailing enchant is the priority if I can since he's confirmed not ascetic and a BP IC would be pretty cool

[Ausuka]

I think the funniest world is that it's Wallflower/Titus and all 3 scum actually picked large numbers but Ari was town

This or it's implosion/wallflower, implo shot me last night, and now implosion has to correctly explain to us that scum could have shot me to save his buddy

[Ausuka]

Since the day has ended earlier than I expected both days so far, I want to take the chance to talk to HQ

HQ, you're either venge or n3 vig, I know you don't want to clarify but like. Obviously if we were to jail and vig the same person that would be a problem. Since I'm the jailkeeper I think my action upon a town lim should be kept private, basically

[Ausuka]

Oops hit submit early

What I'm trying to say is; Do you want to reveal a target if you're vigi so I don't jail them

[Ausuka]

Enchant could be scum BP right? Is there a point in vigging him? Maybe I'm missing something

[Ausuka]

So I think her decision should take priority but rn, I’m leaning to vig Enchant.

I still don't get this? Isn't Enchant probably BP as either alignment

[Ausuka]

But like

Isn't that just wasting your shot then

[Ausuka]

I don't get it? I read Ari's post as the opposite of what you're saying? Enchant should be jailed instead of vigged? Since vigging enchant doesn't do anything

And that you vig some null/neutral read VT to narrow the Poe

[Ausuka]

I don't get it? I read Ari's post as the opposite of what you're saying? Enchant should be jailed instead of vigged? Since vigging enchant doesn't do anything

And that you vig some null/neutral read VT to narrow the Poe

I read it as she didn’t want Implosion vigged in case he’s UB and can be doc. I don’t sr anyone else but those 3: Wallflower, Implosion, Enchant.

I don't want implosion vigged either

Idk I mean I want to jail enchant conditional on a scumflip, I think I've explained why I think that has utility, can I do that?

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Wallflower

[Ausuka]

Ok I know that's actually a policeman emote but like... Jailkeepers are basically like government agents against crime... It works

[Ausuka]

Jailing enchant if this is scum

If wallflower flips town I feel like I should keep my target private?

If hq says she's vigging a VT claim I won't jail them

[Ausuka]

Okay guys, I’m starting to think Implosion may be town, so while the fake vig thing was fun and all, I’m just going to straight up hardclaim venge.

So Enchant is probably the last scum along with WF.

I think if Implosion was role cop he’d already know this.

I hard trs all the vts and tl STD so, I’m now pretty confident I was wrong on Implosion.

Think this makes HQ close to clear? Just because if we flip one more scum, and HQ lives to elo, it is always the correct play to lim hq and I don't see why scum would claim in this scenario

Obviously if she makes it to 3p elo still flip her because it's optimal play there I think

[Ausuka]

Sorry if everyone already knew that and I was just stating the obvious

[Ausuka]

I don’t agree with this, especially since you’ve pretty much guaranteed that scum won’t shoot me. But since I am venge, I could theoretically be the town hero in that extremely unlikely scenario if I venged correctly.

I don't understand why? Normally in elo, you have to pick 1 player and if they're scum you win. If you lim the venge you get 2 players and if either is scum you win. It seems a lot easier. Obviously you don't like insta lim you have discussion beforehand

[Ausuka]

That's understandable, I'm just talking about the worst case scenario, universal townreads have been wrong before

[Ausuka]

Imagine if it's literally just enchant/wallflower and datisi and the scum PT are both like just increasingly frustrated the game is still going

[Ausuka]

I don't understand why we lim enchant before wallflower

Like I'm not saying wallflower is scum 100% of the time but neither of them ever endgames anyway

If we lim Enchant first,
1) implosion inherits BP when we want him to inherit doctor or Jailkeeper
2) We don't get the advantage of a possibly unkillable IC in Enchant, which I get is a fairly small possibility but it seems just optimal to plan around it

[Ausuka]

I jail someone else and we discuss again tomorrow

I don't think enchant voting wallflower means anything particularly?

[Ausuka]

I mean if the majority end up agreeing we should lim Enchant for whatever reason I guess it's fine so not much point arguing

[Ausuka]

I mean if hq is scum she threw with the venge claim so

[Ausuka]

Ok well no she can still win with her partner. But that's not a concern if it's HQ/Wallflower at least

[Ausuka]

I mean Enchant hasn't played for the entire game, I'm not expecting him to start now

[Ausuka]

Again unless Enchant is literally 100% confirmed town I have absolutely NO desire to leave him to endgame

Scum!enchant does not win unless it's because of his partner

This is just about what I view as the optimal order of eliminations for mechanical reasons

[Ausuka]

HQ i am saying I am almost sure you are town here, not that I actually think you threw

[Ausuka]

Like yeah, this makes so much sense. I out being venge when I could have continued with my vig ruse to what end? Why does scum!me do that?

Like this is *exactly* the argument I'm making, if you're scum your only play was to claim n3 vig, or better yet just claim 1-shot watcher or draft cop tbh

Like someone let me know if I'm wrong about the mechanics of venge but I don't think I am

[Ausuka]

enjoy your holiday STD

[Ausuka]

UNVOTE:

Will wait for Ari to do her thing

[Ausuka]

i will block out some time tonight to do some solving if we can not kill wallflower until that happens

Since wallflower was in selfhammer range thought it would be good to unvote just in case

[Ausuka]

If you intended it to be hammer how was it not quickhammering for real, am I missing something here

[Ausuka]

idk dude I haven't played mafia for 3 years

[Ausuka]

I guess scum might quickhammer because people were starting to call Math obvtown

although i can't say i see your hammer as massively scum indicative, I just think it seems unreasonable to say it shouldn't be called a quickhammer

[Ausuka]

Wallflower who should we be looking at after you flip town

[Ausuka]

actually on rereading some of this stuff I feel like maybe Mala/Wallflower is maybe town

I mean that was my original gutread but idk if I can see past the mech guilty here

Do you think we should do something else? I'm willing to consider that if you *really* think so

[Ausuka]

Without even seeing the other slots, Dwlee's vote stands out to me because it started out as a sheep on Ari because of how impressed they were of Ari's game.

I think HEM asked why I voted him — Last time I saw Aristeia like this she nailed Prism into a coffin. She gets my baa privilege until I have more effort into sorting personally

Be back later

I noticed it because it immediately implies Ari is town. So maybe this is Dwlee's first read? But we really didn't see much of a progression on why they thought Ari is town.

I can forgive that.

what do you think about dwlee

what do you think about HQ coming in to kind of soflty defend dwlee only

FMPOV HQ looks town for this

This is Dwlee's second read. If you squint really hard, you can almost see that it's a pocket.

But maybe that doesn't mean they're not town.

However things really break down when Math comes down hard at Dwlee. Dwlee immediately launches an OMGUS but uncharacteristically doesn't vote Math. (ignoring the urge too, they say.) I can understand if they would OMGUS as town, but what I can't understand is why they wouldn't move their vote towards Math to sort and to pressure when I'd be absent for a long time.

Now that's not town. Town wants to use their vote to pressure. Even as they approach 100% certainty, Dwlee doesn't move their vote.

I really feel Dwlee is scum.

Titus hasn’t given a reason other than “matching” and “trying”

I don’t see that here from them.

That has to be BS because you only think I'm scum rn because of things that aren't there rather than things that are. So you can't be that confident of anything

this is also a BS response from them.

MathBlade and HEM probably are SvS

Math just ignored my response to his terrible read on me

And this read was made without due consideration for what motive would scum!mathblade have for defending scum!me.

If I'm scum and Mathblade is scum, why risk their neck on protecting a buddy that has no way of defending themselves for 3 days when you score easy deepwolf points trying to woo people's confidence in you?

Here's what I'm thinking: They made the SvS read so they can still park their vote on me
And they did it without developing their read on anyone other than slots who they were 1. sheeping, 2. encouraging to townread them 3. omgusing. without regard

VOTE: Dwlee99

My vote can change as I ISO the rest of my wagon (and the rest of the game)

I guess the question is what we would expect scum to do with HEM

Generally the thing I would have expected back in my day ™ is that there are ABSOLUTELY one or two scum bussing HEM

It didn't especially feel like scum were trying to save HEM at the time, it felt like an uneasy sort of 'mostly consensus we are going to lim HEM' iirc?

The post above from hem feels like it could be distancing from Dwlee and I scumread Dwlee's day 1 in general but like

Idk dude if they have this whole setup where Dwlee is sheeping Ari on HEM, HEM is pushing Dwlee in return to townspew them, does Dwlee make the reactionary jump onto the Math counterwagon???

Someone help me out here

[Ausuka]

Ari you were hard toanreading Titus right? Is that still true

[Ausuka]

I dislike Dwlee's read on me but am aware I am heavily biased on that so

Does anyone else think it's weird?? Like the progression of Ausuka is tunneled, Ausuka is single mindedly tunneling me (which I don't think I was?) to being willing to vote Ausuka based just on that reasoning

I also don't like their progression from scumreading Bella at the start of the day when that was a pretty fashionable read iirc to then going onto Implo when that again iirc was looking like an easy push toward the latter end of d2, seemingly dropping their earlier scumpool not including implosion

But again I might be like *actually* tunneled at this point so I'm interested in hearing other perspectives on their ISO

I know I was going to keep my reads private but... It's not like I'm always going to jail my top scumread, I would be willing to jail anyone to reduce predictability and because of rather low read confidence, so it's fine I think. A hypothetical world with town Wallflower and Enchant where Ari dies tonight and we don't have much reads discussion going on seems like a very bad world!

[Ausuka]

I will distance myself from this thread until I hear more from Dwlee and std

im not 100% sold on ari's case but of the two of you i think you're more likely to be the scum here

but i'd happily wagon someone else if something more interesting comes my way

Hmm is this a scumpost or a townpost

I guess the whole "I will happily embrace an alternative wagon to my scumbuddy" feels a tad blatant to be SvS

[Ausuka]

I mean yeah I agree
I can definitely see a case for not taking ascetic cop as top slot (although taking BP instead is wild to me)
I don't see why anyone takes BP over cop if they're not obviously PR?? Like if I was a low slot I was going to choose cop tbh

But I don't think we let mala/WF slot endgame either way

[Ausuka]

Just in general STD's progression on HEM feels a bit unaligned because it feels sort of weird and messy and unplanned, if that makes sense

I like STD's tone vibes in general I guess

One question I have from his iso is the implosion read. He doesn't really talk about it but he says he's willing to jump on Implo at one point and later lists him as null, significantly townier than Math iirc?? @std I know you're not exactly a wall player but could you explain your thinking around the Implo read (and your WF read too I guess)

[Ausuka]

I still feel like Bella is town

I guess is WF reds Bella is further townspewed by the scumread Bella has had on wallflower all game? Although I'm not sure if Bella ever explained it?

[Ausuka]

Implo if scum will probably struggle because of the UB claim

[Ausuka]

I guess I haven't really been considering Roden

TBF the way he's been handling the voyeur claim and some other things from him townpinged me iirc and I think he's been a pretty decent consensus townread?

I guess what you're saying is to look at Titus?

[Ausuka]

Yeah unsure how to read Gamma's play there. He was willing to go in for the hammer on Math but iirc was mostly agreeing with Math and calling Ari dense? Maybe I need to have another look at that part of d2

[Ausuka]

I was mostly townreading Gamma though and I think taking vig over like, RB or something is fairly towny especially if he used it on MB

Scum don't have multitasking so if he's holding onto that shot for elo he has a partner he expects to survive probably

[Ausuka]

But, the interactions with Mathblade reminded me of Titus-scum/Math-town dynamic I've seen elsewhere and reading back on Titus' play around the Mathblade wagons, it just feels agenda-driven to me.

I will take a look at this

[Ausuka]

Ok I've had a look

First thought is I'm probably not seeing what you are seeing BUT I am missing the meta context

Other players in this game probably have Titus/Math meta so I guess if they agree this actually does look like scum Titus I'll listen to that?

[Ausuka]

What do you think of the massive Ari push thing and the n3 vig thing? Are those things scum!Titus would do? I've never played w/ scum her but those felt towny to me

[Ausuka]

Spoiler: Why I am convinced the answer is HEM, Math, Ari... but we save Ari until the end in case I'm wrong

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Remember this. We'll be coming back to it.


HEM is a pretty confident universal scumread for everyone. So I'm not going to waste my time there.
Then, we get to Math. His meta is unquestionably strange and hard to put the finger on. I was dealing with the fact Math wasn't pushing theories at all, but he didn't seem to have an agenda. Roden acknowledged this too. Harley Quinn thought it made Math scum, but I wanted to sort out the lack of an agenda.

We're at 1929, I began to get suspicious that Ari was defending a scum!Blade here. Why would Math be suddenly able to play the game after voting out his townread and in an environment where he feels like he cannot give townblocks?

I sat on this for a bit (not long LOL) and discussed HEM + Math together with Roden for a moment. We both observed the same behavior from Math, so that likely meant it was significant and worth exploring. If I could get Ari alone, I could get Ari to articulate a reason to townread Math beyond he'll be useful after HEM flips or he'll give a scumread. I wanted to corner Ari to see if she was actually townreading Math. I didn't predict it to be as illuminating as it was.

In 1945, I start to put feelers out on if Ari is ever willing to vote Math because it does no good to catch Math if the people who have the stomach/fortitude to flip Math are all dead. That's most likely me and HQ. Ari said that she persuaded Math of something which is a rare feat. So Ari would be in that class. So it was worth a line.

In 1952, I claim that scum are going to argue that Math is town because they're a counter to HEM.
Ari immediately does that in the next post.

Ari then starts going back to my old Implo/HEM theory.
I didn't even bother reading the rest of the post for detail once I saw Ari claiming Math's flip spewed him town. I was like nuuhuh biatch.

Ari's post sets out two premises
1) HEM is anti-spew (not 100% sure I agree but I see it and I scumread HEM so ok)
and
2) Math hasn't anti-spew because his flip clears so many.

So that makes me think, was the odd behavior from Math anti-spew?

In 1967, Ari says that when Math sees he's going down that he goes straight into anti-spew and gives a link.

In order to check my theory, I go to the game. I find out who Math is (he's under an alt). I then go to the back of his ISO because that's the most relevant part, establishing how Math sounds when he's anti-spewing. Math's refusal to form a townblock or a cohesive readslist sounds like anti-spew to me.

So I test this theory through a series of questions that I can use no matter the answer. The idea is to get Ari to compare an "unknown" speaker to scum and then compare it to Math's game to see if I can get Ari to defend Math's actual play here or whether Ari would think Math is scummy in a vacuum.

This lets me read Ari to see if Ari is genuinely believing her Math defense and if she is to give her an opportunity to defend the root of the issue, Math's "odd for him" play.

When I posted 1975 asking if the speaker was town or scum, that wasn't the point. No matter what answer Ari gave, I would have told her it was scum that posted. It was a softball designed to have a casual conversation and not inform her that I was actually hunting any particular read in particular since I go off on tangents all the time. That "no tangents" thing might have been ruined but non essential.

Twenty minutes later, Ari says the post is "scum anti-spew". Ari and I both know that Ari has to say it's scum anti-spew. Otherwise, her linking the very game the post comes from is pointless.

Now, unpredicatably, Math comes in and claims ownership of the post in 1994. Now, if I was Ari and a player claimed a known scum post as their own, I'd at least be a little concerned. Instead, Ari is replying to a post from earlier stating she'd be "confused" if Math was scum.

Ari then states that Math stops posting when faced with going down and that's how he "anti-spews". Now, how many of you think that Math can actually stop posting when he gets on a roll? He literally cannot. His anti-spew matches more the text of the post from his micro game that putting in effort isn't worthwhile.

you are talking about one post...

i am talking about the entire iso

math when hes antispewing just shuts up and stops posting

That made me think to compare Math's ISO. Math's tonal irregularities match the last post of that microgame. His ISO is full of it and excuses about why he's not the regular math with theories. No one would listen etc. This isn't a micro game where Math can prod dodge and if he did that would be a scumclaim.

So he just picks fights and never solves.

In 2008, Math says he vibes with himself...when he's scum. Like Math could not be waiving a bigger red flag. He then says if it's not this game it's not relevant which is LOL but adorbs.

In 2011, Ari says that she reads Math by volume and

intention

but how can she be reading Math's posts for intention when she "stopped reading" his posts "awhile ago" according to 1998?

After a bit, Math realizes that he should probably 180 on me. He tries to claim my reaching out to him was scummy in 2020 in an abrupt about face. The rationale is laughable.

Ari's response to this conflicting information and sibling fight is to turn back to the implosion read. 2022
Math just tries to copy this theory by adding me with HEM and Implo.

Now remember that question from before...

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Wallflower's wrong post in 2064 is more consistent with what I expect town to do. Wallflower's wrong, but she's defending the read with substance and not deflecting like the repeated attempts to turn to HEM without saying how Math is town. Wallflower says how Math is town. (No Town!Math never does a full reset here, but it's important that Wallflower defended the position and not the accuracy.) Wallflower still has a chance to be scum if I'm wrong about Ari but I fully expect not to be.

Like especially if this is town WF, the way she pushes Ari as scum just seems ??? Why does scum make this push here

[Ausuka]

Not just talking to WF although I'd like to hear from her about Titus since both her and Math had claimed to have meta and scumread Titus, I feel like I might be missing something there even though I townread that slot, if that makes sense

[Ausuka]

I think implosion is almost definitely town, to be clear

[Ausuka]

Why is Dwlee locktown

Also, why does my phone autocorrect Dwlee to Delete? That one's rhetorical, I don't expect you to answer I'm just annoyed by it

[Ausuka]

My solve would be Enchant and Dwlee probably, I'm not nearly as sure as you seem to be though

[Ausuka]

I'll go for enchant today if I have to I just think it's mechanically suboptimal and I'm like far from totally convinced he's scum anyway

[Ausuka]

Wallflower is still alive right

[Ausuka]

HEM was hardpushing Ari then switched to Dwlee to pocket Math.

Is there any reason this couldn't have been distancing

[Ausuka]

Like if we agree hem was probably being bussed I don't see much disadvantage to hem pushing back there

[Ausuka]

Yeah if we don't flip a scum today I think we just flip enchant tomorrow before elo

[Ausuka]

Limming enchant would work if we are hypothetically prepared to accept implo never does this as a scum gambit I guess

[Ausuka]

I mean that is very true, limming enchant loses us the JK power for a night in return for making implosion unkillable, that's the tradeoff

My phone tried to autocorrect limming into kinning...

[Ausuka]

I guess I just feel uncomfortable putting things on auto pilot there's not a lot of solving

I'm trying x.x

[Ausuka]

Tbh I don't scumread any of the VT claims other than Dwlee

Not saying I have them all locktown or whatever but I'd need convincing

[Ausuka]

because you're obvtown and the third draft slot

[Ausuka]

or if enchant is town they could have just shot enchant I guess

alternatively; scum have nokilled n1 and n2 just to fuck with us

[Ausuka]

that's not serious I think there's pretty much no chance scum did that n1 and a very low chance they do it n2, if the scumteam is like idk enchant and std I guess maybe

[Ausuka]

I mean I want to talk more before Ari potentially dies because I'm far from confident in a WF scumflip

But like yeah limming wallflower is fine

[Ausuka]

but what if I want to chat with dats in the dead pt with spoilers

[Ausuka]

I mean I want to talk more before Ari potentially dies because I'm far from confident in a WF scumflip

But like yeah limming wallflower is fine

If it weren’t literally for Implosion’s role, I would 100% lim Enchant but the way he’s been talking, makes me think he’s either trying to get us to lim him and then we have Wallflower saying she doesn’t think the most obvscum player in the game isn’t scum. Does that sound believable to you? Does anyone seriously tr Enchant here? And she’s hardpushing Implosion - the only slot who can ensure you live 2 nights.

It’s HEM/Wallflower/Enchant. STD is only a possibility if that’s wrong but I really don’t think that is.

~HQ,
scum wifom detector

I mean if I'm being honest enchant and wallflower seems like

Way too easy

But I hope you're right and we should easily win if you are

I guess I can see how someone thinks Enchant is town, I had a similar thought at one point but then was like "am I seriously going to townread this ISO"

[Ausuka]

I guess what I'm saying is

Yeah wallflower and Enchant need to die or be confirmed by jailkeep

Neither should be allowed to endgame if scum

But I want us to discuss the other players while Ari and implo and other towny ppl are still alive

[Ausuka]

but what if I want to chat with dats in the dead pt with spoilers

But you’re the only thing we have that’s functionally like a cop.

Well, I see scum Wallflower getting jk’d again but scum maybe no killing, so you fakeclear her causing chaos and paranoia.

I’m not falling for it.

Don't think there's any way to generate a fake clear? No killing can make a fake guilty

If the scumteam want to play nightless I'm down

[Ausuka]

I guess what I'm saying is

Yeah wallflower and Enchant need to die or be confirmed by jailkeep

Neither should be allowed to endgame if scum

But I want us to discuss the other players while Ari and implo and other towny ppl are still alive

Sure but I could possibly see scum no killing as a gambit too. Scum wants to cause chaos and paranoia and get town to cannibalize itself.

It’s even possible that Wallflower would hope you jk Titus or anyone else and she no kills and then you have a fake guilty on that player.

Why is scum!Enchant practically lolcatting and daring us to yeet him if Wallflower isn’t his buddy?

I mean maybe

I don't think enchant is really doing anything different to what he's been doing all game though

[Ausuka]

I guess my implosion read is partially inspired by others and partially driven by not tring him

I feel the same about enchant

Mm I guess

Idk how to read you tbh

[Ausuka]

Surely if you're going for a meme role it has to be PGO

[Ausuka]

Implosion is town mechanically anyway because he doesn't have any way to explain not getting nightkilled after Ari or I die

[Ausuka]

I mean I would've gone for cop if I was lower down but I guess it's irrelevant since I didn't in practice

[Ausuka]

We are like. Nowhere even close to ELO. It's 10:2 right now. Then 8:2, 6:2, 4:2. We have four mislims. Not to mention the multiple living protective PRs, the venge claim that might as well be mechanically clear since we can lim her at ELO, etc, etc.

Yeah sorry that was a brainfart

[Ausuka]

I mean that's fair I guess

I'm just Not Confident it will be some combination of enchant/wallflower/Std and I want Ari's input while still here if possible

I do agree limming wallflower today is probably the best thing to do still

[Ausuka]

Datisi always keeping a watchful eye to snipe pagetops

[Ausuka]

Reminder that if this reds I am jailing enchant

[Ausuka]

This really is a nightless game

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Enchant

I guess it was optimal play for scum to nokill here but like

Whatever lol let's just Lim enchant and not be boring

Jailing save the dragons tonight

[Ausuka]

I jailed Enchant, I'm not a gambit player really. I will continue to do as I claim so town can make accurate conclusions about my jailkeep if I die

[Ausuka]

That's only from the perspective that scum has to be Enchant or STD, in which case we win anyway

It still could have been someone like Dwlee in that case.

[Ausuka]

Then let's say it could have been Titus or someone

[Ausuka]

I mean PGO is 2 shot and active

He could just not activate it right

[Ausuka]

I think if it was always on it'd be a passive power, I'm pretty sure active means he can actively choose to be a PGO two nights in the game?

[Ausuka]

If he's mafia vig who never shot that seems a bit silly because he can't shoot now

[Ausuka]

the mafia have selected the informed modifier - at the end of the second draft phase, the scumteam will receive a piece of information about the draft. if there are any role pairings which were not taken during the draft, the scumteam will be informed of one of these pairings. if there are multiple, they will be informed of one at random. if all role pairings were taken during the draft, the scumteam will be informed of this.

Scum chose not to be multitasking

If gamma is vig he probably really did shoot Math regardless of alignment

[Ausuka]

Maybe Gamma is just town then

[Ausuka]

I like that idea because it's funny

[Ausuka]

I can see them just trying to kill HQ I guess? She was a fairly obvious night 1 kill

[Ausuka]

I mean you don't kill Enchant because lol

You don't kill me because I'm lucky and not threatening

HQ is third in the draft, active and widely townread

Makes sense right

[Ausuka]

wait I just realized Wallflower flipping mafia means the mafia had 2 huge numbers hehe

what if the last mafia is titus that would be crazy

Should've stuck with my RVS theory smh

[Ausuka]

I mean you don't kill Enchant because lol

You don't kill me because I'm lucky and not threatening

HQ is third in the draft, active and widely townread

Makes sense right

I'm lurky not I'm lucky

[Ausuka]

Dats what the fuck

[Ausuka]

Can we policy lim Datisi for that vote count instead

[Ausuka]

Have you ever seen a game where scum shoots the heavily susses cw?

To be fair I actually did see this once

[Ausuka]

We could've just played 11:3 mountainous nightless and not had to bother with the draft thing

[Ausuka]

Ok I might have a better idea

Since I am guaranteed to survive the night, I will jailkeep randomly in [Save the Dragons, Titus]

Roden if scum has a 50% chance of being caught out and not knowing who I jailkept - since scum aren't multitasking.

This is a small upside since it's not a hard clear on Roden anyway, but there's no apparent downside to it

[Ausuka]

It might have been better play to just not say anything and jailkeep Titus but the world where a quickelim happens tomorrow before I get in the thread for some reason and STD coasts to a win haunts me

[Ausuka]

Roden can't kill and use voyeur at the same time

[Ausuka]

I mean yeah I think Roden is town anyway but I think it's good to have mechanical evidence supporting that

I know my plan doesn't do a lot, but it gives us something and loses us nothing as far as I can see


I mean if people want to start voting up the VTs I'm willing to hammer and fast night, I think this game is a win either way and I'm not sure what else to say

[Ausuka]

Seems lightly scum indicative for enchant I guess?

[Ausuka]

I agree that it doesn't matter really. I think limiting it to a pool of two people and asking Roden to target in them is optimal to catch out scum Roden, but that's like a nerd 0.01% winrate thing to care about

VOTE: Save the Dragons

Fine with this too as long as we move forward from the stall some way or another.

jk pool is Titus or enchant

[Ausuka]

if you wanna kill me you can kill me if it's easier i think this game is pretty much won for town

Do you think scum!STD makes this post?

He had no votes on him at the time?

Maybe?

I mean it's hardly optimal scumplay here to be like "you guys should never eliminate me ever I am obvious town"

[Ausuka]

Wallflower did like the exact same thing