Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[GuiltyLion]

hey everybody, excited to play with you all!

VOTE: the worst

[GuiltyLion]

Nice to see you playing here, Fruit!

what's your experience with Fruit - how many games have you played together, are they an easy read? they're one of the only names I don't recognize on this playerlist.

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63 doesnt really look like an rvs post tho

I thought it was just a joke for an rvs?

63 doesnt really look like an rvs post tho

I thought it was just a joke for an rvs?

I mean maybe, but it doesnt read as a an rvs joke, it reads like shading gamma, esp. since i dont think gamma's post really looks anything like pocketing

Beat is probably the closest thing i have to a real scumread tbh

Skitter has some good vibes so far, townread there!

Meuh can you explain why you're townreading skitter

she's really tricky as scum and it seems to me like you disagree with her about Beat (I didn't quote the post on the next page where you say why you're townreading Beat) so what it is specifically that gave you "good vibes"?

[GuiltyLion]

86 reads like scum stream of consciousness more than town stream of consciousness to me. It feels like the possibility that Cakez is faking unawareness of the gamestate is being seriously considered and presented as content, even though that's actually an extremely rare thing (and beat is some flavor of seasoned). I think town would more firmly reject including the possibility with any prominence after making a felt-judgment to just rule it out (especially if the final conclusion is green); scum!beat however has an incentive to present it as content because it's not impossible for it to happen in a mafia game and it's reasoning process for developing a read

I initially had a similar gut dislike of this post as skitter did, it felt a bit contrived and over-explainy, but at the same time if it was entirely bullshit I think Isis would be a bit more self-aware of it being a bullshit push? The more I thought through the reasoning in this post the less I found it scummy

Is my point not that it being unlikely is the source of the townread?
I suppose you could say its not but I see no reason not to present my thought on the natural counterpoint to my read. Besides it never hurts to be meticulous.

and I also did not like this response - Beat, why do you think you phrased the first part of this reply as a question? It feels like you're trying to argue without actually being confrontational.

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These posts are so over the top that it just reads to me like Isis is trying to replicate her town meta

similar vein as what I just posted - why do you think scum!Isis would be so over the top you could catch her off of it just 4-5 pages into the game? doesn't that seem unlikely?

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These posts are so over the top that it just reads to me like Isis is trying to replicate her town meta

similar vein as what I just posted - why do you think scum!Isis would be so over the top you could catch her off of it just 4-5 pages into the game? doesn't that seem unlikely?

This post sucks

am I wrong to think Isis is not going to obvscum on page 5?

especially because Cakez argument is just "she's trying to replicate her town meta", which is always a shit reason to scumread someone because usually

it's just actually their town meta

[GuiltyLion]

what do you not like about the question

I think Cakez vote is either lazy or scummy and I am probing him to dig into which it is

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Meuh

also, you can have a vote for lawyering on behalf of Cakez before he even answered my question

combined with your skitter and beat townreads, feels like you're trying to make buddies more than hunt scum

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similar vein as what I just posted - why do you think scum!Isis would be so over the top you could catch her off of it just 4-5 pages into the game? doesn't that seem unlikely?

to be clear, you think this post is shutting down discussion?

how does it shut down discussion to say I don't think Isis is an easy obvscum

if he disagrees he's welcome to explain why

this isn't even a gotcha? like what

[GuiltyLion]

donu townread isis

I think 146 is a vaguely townie post but besides that I haven't seen anything that moved the needle much for me either way. but I start from a position that any given slot is likely town until you have good reasons to think otherwise

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Meuh is my only real scumread and I don't like Cake's vote. waffley on Beat I could see her either way but I didn't like that one post I called out. There's also a few slots who haven't done anything at all that I need to get a read on

[GuiltyLion]

is it the worst?

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Nor this, lowkey feel like you're wk-ing isis?

At first i thought partners, bur i'm not sure you'd go out on a limb like this for a partner so then i thought wk-ing

I see people making bad/lazy votes, I call it out

if you think I'm WKing, that means you would think Isis is town in that world, does that change your view of Cakez vote at all?

the goal of WKing is usually to make yourself look good when the WK-ee is revealed to be town, do you think my play is currently accomplishing that?

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or to pocket Isis I guess, but I don't think scum!me wants or needs to pocket Isis

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I'm not sure i like this - and i've never played with meuh / wouldnt necessarily expect them to have this perception of me

I actually find this a little alarming but i'm not sure if i dont like this because its about me or not

also on this - regardless of meta (which I wasn't supposing Meuh had either, just pointing out my own experience with you as scum), do you think it's reasonable for town to be confidently calling you town on "good vibes" at that point?

I'm usually gonna want to be suspicious of the people that too easily townread me

[GuiltyLion]

like, Meuh says she thinks Beat is town, thinks you're town and has no issue with your push on Beat

says she thinks Isis is town, has no issue with Cakez vote on Isis and actually grills me for calling it out

this is the behavior I'm pointing to when I say Meuh is looking more to make buddies than find scum, usually townies are at least somewhat suspicious of people voting and casing their townreads

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meh I think some of that "too much defending" feeling is cause Meuh was saying my post sucked and challenging me on why I was asking Cakez about it, but fair enough

I do think Cakez townreading you is also bad yah, I would think after years of playing this game he would not be so trusting

Isis, meh 144 felt like it was just giving a random read rather than meant to push the game any sort of which way from it so I care less about it.

the main reason I focused on Meuh though was what I tried to show in my quoted posts, she disagrees and pushes back on your Beat read but then just goes "skitter town " immediately afterwards despite you doubling down on it

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it makes me wonder what her purpose was in probing you about Beat, it wasn't to change your mind since she dropped it afterwards, and I guess I don't see how it would really have helped her sort you either. no pressure, no clear re-evaluation on her end

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I posted 79 because to me Skitter was pretty clearly wrong about the intent behind Beat's vote.

I guess maybe the thing I really want to ask here is - do you think Skitter being wrong about the intent of Beat's vote is town-indicative, or just completely NAI? What felt off to me the way you posted 79 and Skitter disagreed with you and reaffirmed she scumread Beat yet you then landed on a townread, I didn't understand the thought process of how that question and her answer lead to your read. But if 79 for you was nothing beyond clarifying a misconception then I might have less of an issue with it

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hrrmmm harumph

VOTE: SirCakez

Cakez I also wanna know what you think of Isis' actual argument beyond just the "over the top" delivery of it

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@gl i guess when i read 157 and 158 the emphasis seems to be more on defending isis than questioning the votes on her, if that makes sense

Also did you have a problem with my vote on her?

Isis, meh 144 felt like it was just giving a random read rather than meant to push the game any sort of which way from it so I care less about it.

I mean i had voted her prior to this and she didnt react to that at all and instead just threw a vague townread on me which is ? to me

I didn't have an issue with your vote because "trying to find a reason to vote Beat" makes sense as scum-indicative behavior, even if I disagree with the observation the reasoning feels valid. It's not the same as "trying to replicate town meta" because that argument could be applied to virtually anything does, and Cakez claimed her posts were over the top when I didn't think that was true either.

tbh I didn't connect that Isis' townread on you was potentially in response to you voting her, imo it doesn't make a big difference but in the interest of no longer defending Isis too much I'll let her speak to that

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hey y'all just taking a quick skim not gonna be around playing much tonight but I wanna say I do TR Meuh's response to me in the tail end of that back and forth, I thought her approach tonally didn't feel too defensive and if I accept 79 being a clarification instead of a question with intent to sort it does resolve some of my gut dislike of it

[GuiltyLion]

hey y'all just taking a quick skim not gonna be around playing much tonight but I wanna say I do TR Meuh's response to me in the tail end of that back and forth, I thought her approach tonally didn't feel too defensive and if I accept 79 being a clarification instead of a question with intent to sort it does resolve some of my gut dislike of it

Why do you talk in word salad?

I don't like this post

1) I feel like my post is pretty clear in what I'm saying. it's maybe a bit rambly, it was a quick unedited mobile post, but "word salad" feels like a pretty uncharitable way to describe it

2) in one of our most recent games together where we were both town, you tunneled me most of the game saying I was scum for using too many words, purple prose, etc. We've played enough together overall over the years that I feel you should have a better understanding of how I tend to communicate my thoughts

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Meuh good call tbh, fast and loose is a much better play than slow and steady

Of the Meuh votes I like this one the least

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Not engaging with my response to GL’s argument at all, not asking me any questions to try sorting me, just echoing what’s already been said.
You have more experience playing with me (and a more accurate history of reading me) than GL and you’ve already seen Marci’s D1 tonal reads on me be very wrong.
The fact you’re willing to just go along with this push and rely on Marci/GL would be more understandable if we had never played together.
But here, I think it’s pretty telling.

I think this is fair and I sense there may be opportunism in the Meuh votes so I'm gonna trust my gut for the moment and see where this goes

VOTE: Gamma

Pav can you help me reconcile these two posts

you think the worst's Meuh vote is worse than Gamma's Meuh vote, but then you vote Gamma instead? Are you scumreading both of these players? I get that your gut is saying scum voted Meuh, but I'm not able to understand the strength of your scumread on either player or why you voted Gamma over the worst

[GuiltyLion]

It seems pretty uncharitable for sure but like is it AI?

I am not sure

historically I have seen town!Titus tunnel me so on a surface level I wouldn't say her disliking my posts is AI

but in this particular instance her post feels like it's just meant to throw dirt and make me defensive/reactive rather than engage with me or sell me to the other players

I want to get a better feel of what her actual read on me is and how much conviction she has in it

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wtf 5??

my loyal sheep are making me doubt that theyre all loyal..

If it helps I didn't even realize you were voting Gamma I think their posts on page 12 were so bad they deserve a vote regardless

I don't really think Gamma's posts were that bad

and I don't like the phrasing of "deserve a vote", makes it kinda sound like your motivation is to punish Gamma for 'bad' posts more than you actually think Gamma is more likely to be scum

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That being said, I'm not loving some of Gamma's responses to being voted.

Pav which responses in particular

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GL what are your thoughts on me specifically?

townlean, you don't seem very defensive and I like that you noted Pav's comment about your "responses" was off without trying to blow it up into a huge deal

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my overall reads are like:

townie: {marci, Ari, Meuh, Isis, gamma}
maybe town?: {Beat, skitter, the worst}
need more data: {fruit, Titus}
scummy: {Pav, Cakez}

[GuiltyLion]

[5] Gamma Emerald: Beat, Aristeia, Meuh, Pavowski, SirCakez

[1] Gamma Emerald: SirCakez

it's a lil weird this wagon collapsed so fast

I'm not sure it would make sense for Pav/Cakez to both be scum and both hop on this wagon b2b, so that kinda makes me think I don't have a completely accurate view of the gamestate, but without flips it's hard to speculate meaningfully about what happened here. I could see Pav's unvote as either scum being optics-focused or town genuinely uncertain, hard for me to feel strongly either way, but I do think both Pav and Cakez votes on the wagon deserve scrutiny

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez has had quite a few AI moments this game. Im fairly confident they are town.

which ones? I do remember this point:

Unless Cakez is deliberatly faking so I think scum would be more likely to identify the gamestate. Cakez most likely green then

where I get the logic but it's not super indicative in my mind, I don't think forgetting or misunderstanding the gamestate in the first ~100 posts is something scum can never do

the only other mention of real mention of something specific he said in your ISO is this:

The Setup is designed around a Mafia lim always being more powerful than a town lim. Shooting for mafia every day is for the best

Ahh yes in Mafia we try to eliminate scum. Beat with the strats.

Dont like this taking the quote out of the relevant context.

but then he became Do Not Elim by 284?

what else am I missing that points to him being town?

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I'm phone posting and it's hard to dig back but I recall Gamma pointedly asking one of the earlier voters why they were voting, but then with some of the later voters, there was like, no reaction. Which struck me as odd

just want to acknowledge this, I see where you're coming from, thanks for the answer. I don't think it's necessarily a scummy reaction to being wagoned myself but I get what you meant by your comment now

[GuiltyLion]

as of past couple pages I feel less wary of Pav, partly also because I still think it's unlikely Pav/Cakez are both scum both hopping on a GE wagon and I have more direct issue with Cakez posts and votes

definitely going to want Beat to explain their Cakez read as I truly cannot grok that one and it's feeling fake to me, regardless of SC's actual alignment

[GuiltyLion]

maybe town?: {Beat, skitter, the worst}

the worst down a notch maybe, he fell off a bit prob due to the sundresses but still... whats so wrong with sundresses!!!

also yeah I definitely want TW to do more, I thought there were a few minor townie things in his early game but I'm definitely biased towards wanting him to be town cause I like being town with him

marci can you use your vote constructively somewhere? the game has too many vanity or no voters right now and I have a feeling your marci wagon is not gonna happen at this point

[GuiltyLion]

maybe town?: {Beat, skitter, the worst}

the worst down a notch maybe, he fell off a bit prob due to the sundresses but still... whats so wrong with sundresses!!!

also yeah I definitely want TW to do more, I thought there were a few minor townie things in his early game but I'm definitely biased towards wanting him to be town cause I like being town with him

marci can you use your vote constructively somewhere? the game has too many vanity or no voters right now and I have a feeling your marci wagon is not gonna happen at this point

Who do you want our Queen to vote?

Why do you not have a sundress?

Where did the tuna sandwich go?

ideally she'd vote Cakez with me but I'm not at a point where I want to be demanding votes on my wagon, wherever she votes (that isn't herself) will be game-advancing

tigers don't wear dresses, silly! and as for the sandwich I ate it

[GuiltyLion]

The latter I later decided was AI as I imagined it came up in ISOing me which scum could do but I wouldnt expect it that early.

this feels like kind of a reach, how do you know he ISO'd you instead of just quick replying to a random post he thought he could jump on?

They also have been fairly consistent all around and not manipulative in my opinion.

I disagree with this one, I feel saying Isis was "

so

" over the top was embellishment and his reasoning on Gamma being "put me to sleep" (330) and "posts deserve a vote" (336) is all language meant to manipulate people's posts into sounding 'bad' without detailing why Cakez actually believes they're alignment indicative.

who do you think might be scum in addition to Meuh? I see a lot of townreads coming from you but not a lot of directed pressure at players

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hey all, apologies for my absence yesterday was a busy work day, I haven't read up but I will have some time to play this afternoon + tonight, looked at the latest two VCs and I'm definitely perplexed by the worst moving off of a leading Gamma wagon to a vanity Fruit vote, feel like even without reading anything I can tell that's not a game advancing move so I want to look into why he made that switch

I'm also aware my vote is no longer doing anything so when I catch up I'll be trying to decide whether I like any of Gamma/Beat/Ari wagons enough to join

stay tuned for me playing in ~5-6 hours or so

[GuiltyLion]

first off, thanks marci for the sundress avi. I like the blush & makeup job as well ^_^

I'm not responding to everything I'm reading (yet) but I wanna go for bat for Gamma as of the 20s pages where Cakez is pushing on her again. I do agree Gamma's early game posting on pages 10-12 or whatever pre-wagon is coasting but like I've seen scum!Gamma

not

coast before so it just doesn't strike me as a super compelling case, at least as Cakez presents it. I also think this:

It's interesting that 7/12 ITDNHTBMSUGE (individuals that do not happen to be mafia scum user gamma emerald) have voted for him thus far. The way votes have gone on and off fast makes this not particularly indicative of her being a townie, though, imo

is a good observation and something I feel does loosely point to town-alignment - my hunch is that scum aren't going to willy-nilly vote/unvote their partners, they wanna look meaningfully unaligned. overall I'd agree it's not "particularly" indicative but it's a small piece of evidence I'd weigh

at the same time I was also kinda thinking this set up is weird in that there's not really much incentive to bus at all - if you try to make yourself "obvtown" by bussing your partner it would raise a question of why scum don't mark you as confirmed town after the fact, since scum are probably going to want to make the most universally townread obviously town people the ones confirmed as town to keep the miselim pool open. so my hunch is we're not likely to be seeing a lot of meaningful bussing on D1 here

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why are scum unlikely to bus? I'd bus like crazy d1 here

is it bad that the first thought that went through my head when I saw this question is

"is duckie!scum trying to derptell that he's town because he doesn't know why bussing is bad and he would know why bussing is bad if he were actually scum here because he'd have to think about the consequences of bussing?"

did this integrate into your read on TW? I like the thought process but I don't like the lack of firm opinion here

I'm inclined to see it as a legitimate derptell because I think if scum!worst was thinking about pros & cons of bussing he'd be less likely to even conceive of using this as an opportunity to derptell

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- i find the rise, and fall, of the gamma wagon to be quite interesting and perhaps scum-indicative of gamma.

do you think gamma's scumbuddies voted gamma and then unvoted? or why else would it be scum-indicative

[GuiltyLion]

Okay so Cakez is likely town

VOTE: Gamma

I'm kinda feeling this too at this point

I don't really agree with Cakez at all but I'm starting to feel he sincerely believes in his reads

[GuiltyLion]

me having a weak start is a towntell for me I'd say. Even in games where I don't go full-force as scum early, I still try to make sure things go my way as fast as possible.

yah this is kinda my impression, and I don't think this is bullshit scum!self-meta, like this vibes with my same feeling about times I've seen town vs scum GE

also just less immediately combative than you have been as scum in games past

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then uh why are u not voting for gamma ?

I haven't' been convinced yet by any reasons anyone has given for her to be scum

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ah whoops sorry I'm losing posts in all the p-edits

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(you're calling gamma's wagon inevitable ... that's a p pre-mature read from a town perspective, esp for the strength of your read on him, but is like exactly what scum-you would be tallying up here, and what scum-you would want. i'm not sure town-you settles for gamma just yet given your reasons for scumreading him. and there's also the fact that you're basically letting marci lead this wagon for you. yeah yeah you voted him first. she brought up the scumread first tho, and you voted just after gamma was posting limply so you had an excuse)

I def agree with skitter that calling the gamma wagon "inevitable" is sus, as they say

skitt picking fights with Isis and Ari b2b on D1 is brave if she's scum, I can really only see the immediate scum agenda in it if GE is scum and this is an effort to derail the wagon in some way

but I also don't think GE is scum so I'm kinda maybe liking skitter here

@Gamma - combative means you kinda get hostile and pick more aggressive fights as scum I've noticed as a way of discrediting. like in Situation Room you really went at FakeGod pretty intensely and that's stuck with me

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i'm here for GL. i wonder what he's doing right now.

I was working, unfortunately

can we dish about reads? who are your top priority scumreads at present?

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Pav is very tonally and strategically town and I still stand by that.

this is a wonky read to me

I know Pav is V/LA so I can't ding him too much for non-presence but most of the currently active players have been substantially more involved in the game than Pav so I don't really vibe with how Pav can be one of your strongest townreads at this stage, or really even from the early game

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he feels like a nonpresence so far and I know he is capable of being very good when hes town

weren't you scumreading me when I was around early game? like post 175 was I a nonpresence at that point too?

I can say for sure by the end of the game no one will feel like I've been a non presence

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I don't think any of your posting has made me think "this is town!GL"

mmm either I'm a scumgod or you're not very good at reading me then

[GuiltyLion]

anyways, I think I want my vote here

VOTE: Beat

I'm not fully convinced re:Ari & Skitter because I have a lot of respect for their game, but my gut feeling is we may be in a world where all of Ari/skitter/Isis are town all paranoia fighting each other, and meanwhile Beat just kinda comes in and posts a quiet vote on Ari while taking a very fence-sitty opinion on Gamma. I get a sense Beat doesn't want to look too bad from a GE townflip. Also, a few of the ways she's justified her reads have felt made up and reachy to me - claiming that Cakez ISO'd her? (571), strong townread on Pav, the idea that Meuh is "bloodthirsty" 845, none of it feels genuine to me. Also I TR Titus and Meuh and think it's a pure wagon so far

p-edit: lmao yeah I was definitely more the snarky one first in that interaction w/ Ari haha

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I TR a lot of the active/engaged players which makes me feel I'm probably getting snowed on one active townread and maybe there's a LHF scum in Fruit or Pav, but yeah Beat is the sweet spot of lack of presence and disingenuine feeling from the content that they

have

shared

[GuiltyLion]

yah I'm not really vibing with this Gamma push on Ari

I don't think it was that condescending and I was definitely being cheeky myself

and I think town or scum can get annoyed with 'unfair treatment'

Gamma how do you feel about a Beat vote

[GuiltyLion]

i think my not trusting meuh is making me pretty hesitant to join a beat wagon but my read on beat has really nulled out

let's talk about Meuh, what's the concern there

after my dislike of her early game I've been nodding along with all her posts since

though tbh she may have slipped a few by me since her avi is so similar to Ari's it's hard to tell at a glance

[GuiltyLion]

1. My ari scumread was addressed before the vote near start of day. It has grown since then.
2. I believe this is an accurate read on my position with the Gamma Wagon. I'm not convinced enough of GE being scum to vote there when we are so close to hammer. I also have other scumreads I'd like to address more. I am fence sitting on Gamma deliberately in a way (though i didnt think of it like this before)

(Additionally I dont think a GE flip gives us much info regardless of alignment)

My issue is more - if you don't think GE is a good flip and you're invested in an Ari scumread, why weren't you being more loud about it? 1051 isn't gonna motivate anyone to vote Ari, I'd expect town to be more vocal about steering the wagon away from Gamma if that's what you want. that's what I mean by "quiet", you were content to let a bunch of people argue with each other and Ari to hardpush Gamma while you just plopped a vote on her

it might be a playstyle thing because you've been kinda withdrawn throughout the whole game but especially at that particular juncture of the game it felt like you didn't actually care about the current momentum of Ari's Gamma push/wagon

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I'm here I think - today was busy and I'm not like totally absolutely caught up.

VOTE: Ari

I also am starting to not hate the Beat wagon

those planet responses are thoroughly acceptable.

and because I forgot I was still voting meuh!!
VOTE: Ari

also, did you answer my question about Meuh? What's your current read there and why? You said you were worried about Meuh on the Beat wagon but I don't know if I remember or understand why you scumread Meuh

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btw I'll likely join the stoned posting squad later tonight after my Deep Rock Galactic friends date

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I mean my input this game has largely been ignored/ not engaged with except as reason to scumread me which doesn't incentivize me to be anything other than be withdrawn.

I both dislike this post and also dislike the fact that virtually everyone ignored it

which posts this game do you feel people have ignored as it relates to your Ari scumread? feel like I'm maybe repeating myself but I don't see how you could genuinely believe what you've posted regarding Ari in your ISO would convince somebody that they should be voting her alongside you.

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i need to sleep cause im gonna try to play pokemon cards at the downtown card store and buy that i mean I am going to get to work early, leave work early, drive downtown, probably discover I don't really understand how city parking works, step out of a parking spot that looks like ok maybe i'm allowed to park there, then read one of the 999999 signs menacingly reminding everyone what the biggest towing company in the city is and drive home, unpack half the remaining stuff in my house for the 4th (4th) halving of yet-to-be-unpacked possessions, lose a slay the spire run to goblin nob then fall asleep

Gremlin Nob crushing dreams of Silent runs
Very sad memories

i remember when i was terrified of laga. those were simpler days.

fun aside, it's been proven that there exists at least one strictly unwinnable StS seed, based on a mandatory floor 6 super elite +max HP Laga https://oohbleh.github.io/losing-seed/

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like how we have another wagon that is just two votes away from being a hammer, The only reason as of now why I don't see the Hammer ending so soon is if either at least two mafia are voting bean, or they don't wanna get someone killed immediately. either way I don't like this vote, I honestly don't like any of the votes that have come stupidly close to a Hammer, Like Gamma's

Who would you like us to be looking at instead?

I continue to find your play a little weird, but I know you're new to the site. TRing Ari for not wanting a hammer here doesn't track for me. Time is getting lowish in the day, we need to be figuring out a lim, and either Gamma or Beat get us some info, regardless of how they flip at this point.

this is a bad flavor of nothingpost when I don't know which of Gamma or Beat you'd prefer

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As we continue to approach deadline I'm gonna point out that Beat's last post was basically like "everyone ignores me so I'm not going to give content" and she has not substantively pushed her scumread Ari at all despite us being at the stage where we need to coalesce on a lim

[GuiltyLion]

I am thinking

town: {Titus, Marci, Fruit, Meuh, Isis, Skitter}
prob town?: {Ari, Cakez, Gamma}
scummy: {the worst, Pav, Beat}

[GuiltyLion]

hello hello

reading up

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I don't love reading people when emotions are high but I think Ari's reactions with TW last night (hate to see you go Duck) are towny

TW's reactions less so

ehhh I disagree with this read on TW, I don't think scum!tw gets so heated about being (correctly) accused of being scummy for not pushing his D1 scumread very hard? if that was all a defensive AtE maneuver then why replace out afterwards?

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sorry as I'm reading up I see that point was discussed already

however I do think it's the most awkward post of the posts I'm reading

I think Ari + Isis are both town and am not interested in voting either today. Skitter's Isis push is meh vibes, I guess I can imagine town!skitt going down that route but there are a lot of better suspects on the wagon

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Then I didn't like the wagons at day's end

and vanity wagoning at that point would have been pointless

???

this seems fairly dissonant from this post you made:

I don't like how we have another wagon that is just two votes away from being a hammer, The only reason as of now why I don't see the Hammer ending so soon is if either at least two mafia are voting bean, or they don't wanna get someone killed immediately. either way I don't like this vote, I honestly don't like any of the votes that have come stupidly close to a Hammer, Like Gamma's

Who would you like us to be looking at instead?

I continue to find your play a little weird, but I know you're new to the site. TRing Ari for not wanting a hammer here doesn't track for me.

Time is getting lowish in the day, we need to be figuring out a lim, and either Gamma or Beat get us some info, regardless of how they flip at this point.

please explain why you were telling Fruit they were fine wagons yesterday if you didn't like them?

like

I can understand maybe not liking the wagons at day end, but the way in this post you asked for Fruit (of all people) to suggest a counter instead of just proposing one yourself at any point yesterday??

[GuiltyLion]

Are these the posts of someone trying to solve the game? Or are these the posts of someone trying to follow active townies while giving off the impression of genuinely scumreading the same people as them.

I kinda feel like I was the main factor in Beat getting limmed? Like I definitely swayed Ari onto it and was the main one pushing it in the 48 hours leading up to the deadline?

who do you think were the active townies I was sheeping? most of the active people at end of yesterday (Ari, Gamma, Isis)

followed

me onto Beat

your characterization of the game doesn't really fit my experience here

I also don't think I'm "disconnected", other than just being absent this weekend

[GuiltyLion]

The way the game flowed from Gamma to Beat doesn’t give me the impression either of them were scum.
Like there probably were some scum who participated in that shift, but I think they mostly just didn’t care and just settled for a mislim on whoever townies were pointing at.
Gamma shouldn’t be limmed today imo

To me, if someone wants to make a case for Gamma scum, they also have to make a case for how the Gamma -> Beat change was influenced by ill-intentioned people.
Otherwise, the circumstances make Gamma being scum pretty unlikely in my eyes

this is a really good post though and I vibe with this

how do you feel about marci being the scum that snowed you instead of me

[GuiltyLion]

[7] Beat:

Titus

,

Meuh

,

GuiltyLion

,

marcistar

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Aristeia

,

Isis

this is how I feel about that wagon

Beat got stuck at 4/5 votes for a loooong time I think if Ari or Isis were scum they wouldn't have fucked around so much before jumping on, their EOD1 play feels agendaless and unscripted to me

I can see worlds where Gamma is scum but I think Meuh is right there didn't seem to be an intentional effort to push away from Gamma to Beat (other than like... by me, and I know I'm not scum), so I kinda think the end of day yesterday was scum just chilling without pressure to fight for a particular lim they needed.

I feel like I haven't seen marci produce actual #Reads ^TM or #Content ^TM in quite some time, ever since she got the early townreads really - like to everyone else reading this post, ask yourself if you can recall off the top of your head what marci's view of the game is here

and I think Isis makes a good point about her treatment of Fruit switching from defending to discrediting to be suspicious timing

I'm kinda want to flip Pav most of all, but I also understand the thread vibe that we should focus on-wagon today before chasing off-wagon

VOTE: marcistar
marci give us some fresh D2 reads pls

[GuiltyLion]

Skitter's Isis push is meh vibes, I guess I can imagine town!skitt going down that route but there are a lot of better suspects on the wagon

also on this I want to ask skitter directly

you say you don't TR most of the wagon

why was Isis suspect #1 instead of people who actually built the wagon? like I feel like you should be looking with more scrutiny at the Meuh/me/marci/gamma chunk in the middle and was kinda surprised you didn't

how are you currently reading all of meuh/marci/me

[GuiltyLion]

pav did u learn anything new from the flip

Why are we scumreading pav again
Seems like the wrong place to be focusing imo

that was just a question?

did i ever say i scumread pav?

also as a minor point I don't like the defensiveness of 1692 nor the fact that I still don't actually know what marci's read on Pav is after reading it

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE COUNT 1.9

[3]

Gamma Emerald

: SirCakez, marcistar, Aristeia

[2]

SirCakez

: GuiltyLion, Gamma Emerald

[2]

Beat

: Titus, Meuh

[2]

Aristeia

: skitter30, Beat

[1]

Meuh

: the worst

[1]

skitter30

: The Ugly Fruit

[2]

Not voting

: Pavowski, Isis

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-06-12 18:48:05)

MOD NOTES

• please let me know if there are any errors, i do this by hand.

• Pavowski and Gamma Emerald currently v/la.

• have fun!

VOTE COUNT 1.10

[5]

Beat

: Titus, Meuh, GuiltyLion, marcistar, Aristeia

[3]

Aristeia

: skitter30, Beat, the worst

[2]

Gamma Emerald

: SirCakez, Isis

[1]

SirCakez

: Gamma Emerald

[1]

skitter30

: The Ugly Fruit

[1]

Not voting

: Pavowski

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-06-12 18:48:05)

MOD NOTES

• please let me know if there are any errors, i do this by hand.

• Pavowski, Gamma Emerald and skitter30 currently v/la.

• have fun!

VOTE COUNT 1.11

[5]

Beat

: Titus, Meuh, GuiltyLion, marcistar, Gamma Emerald

[3]

Aristeia

: skitter30, Beat, the worst

[2]

Gamma Emerald

: SirCakez, Isis

[1]

skitter30

: The Ugly Fruit

[2]

Not voting

: Pavowski, Aristeia

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-06-12 18:48:05)

MOD NOTES

• please let me know if there are any errors, i do this by hand.

• Gamma Emerald and skitter30 currently v/la.

• have fun!

actually to dig into Meuh's theory for town!Gamma, I do think there could be worlds where both marci and gamma are scum

marci was the only slot to move from Gamma to Beat and stay there (Ari also moved but unvoted), while still making noise about Gamma being scummy throughout D1 into D2

could be distancing, esp if skitter is town, I don't think skitter-marci is S-S after that interaction I called out

[GuiltyLion]

gamma/marci interactions are a little wack too

like Gamma has marci as a top townread (1447) despite also highlighting that marci is "railroaded" on pushing him (1060), and the conversations between the two feel kinda fillery ("talk about the game?" 830, 966) rather than Gamma working to authentically understand or shape Marci's read on him

usually if someone is hard tunneling me, especially someone I townread, it's gonna make me 1) try to understand why and 2) push back on where they're wrong, but ultimately 3) suspicious if my efforts don't seem to be working or met with good faith

and I feel like gamma is like making vague gestures at step 1 but steps 2/3 are missing

[GuiltyLion]

Why is pav your preferred flip? How did the beat townflip affect your reads given that it was your preferred flip yesterday? Not sure i like your marci push, feels a big bandwagon-y tbh

pav - I just outlined more things I didn't like from him on D2 (implication that TW's fight with Ari looked scummy, said he didn't like the wagons despite posting on D1 that we should flip either Beat or Gamma for info and asking Fruit if there was anyone else to wagon instead) - and in general I haven't seen a single post from him this whole game that rung major town bells for me, he's just kinda here but not pushing the game any sort of which way and thought processes feel oblique to me

was it not clear how beat flip affected my reads? Gamma stock went down, and I looked at the wagon and felt marci was worst vote on it. I don't know if I understand how you can say your marci read is fading but also be suspicious of me for voting/scumreading her.

[GuiltyLion]

Also i'm not sure i understand your isis townread - can you elaborate plz?

there's a bunch of posts from Isis where she's making insightful reads and pushing the game in a way that feels like authentic scumhunting. The latest such post that really made me feel "yup Isis town" is 1805 for example - I don't think it's as likely scum would have a) identified and remembered that marci's attitude towards Fruit changed specifically after Fruit called her out, b) thought to push it at this juncture in the game when marci isn't exactly a popular scumread.

and there's posts like this all over her ISO. your argument against her hasn't been convincing to me - like it feels like you're taking a post like 1669 far too seriously when you say it's "putting blame on Ari", and you're also holding onto 108 as if it's some super indicative thing when to me it seems like you just don't like the explanation/thought process moreso than it being something that town wouldn't post.

[GuiltyLion]

Like why did he drop paw for this? Idk

several people already pointed out that it'd be better to hunt on wagon today?

I'm letting it be known that I SR Pav and would vote there if a wagon sprung up, but I don't think people would be willing to go for it at the moment, so I'm not

[GuiltyLion]

Like your entire top row was on that wagon. I'm not sure i follow why marci is the one you think is scummy here, and not the others

I gave several things I didn't like from marci, I'll repeat them again

-As Isis pointed out in 1805, switched from defending Fruit to discrediting him as soon as Fruit started accusing her of being scummy posting filler
-Has not substantively expressed or advanced reads in order to push the game a certain way in recent memory
-1692 overreaction and yet doesn't feel like she actually wanted to clarify her read on Pav
-repeatedly says she SR Gamma, even at EOD1, yet kept her vote on Beat, feels like closest profile of scum on that wagon compared to deadline compromisers (Ari/Isis) or initial voters (Titus, Meuh)
-bonus point: not a reason against Marci in isolation but if Gamma is scum I could easily see them as paired, their interactions do not like two townies attempting to sort each other.

[GuiltyLion]

Like i guess i'm confused why out of all of your townreads on wagon (bolded) marci is who you're turning too. Up till this point in your iso you're not sus of her at all

I mean in simplest possible terms, Beat flipped town and most of the others on the Beat wagon continue to post townie things, whereas marci has not. I wasn't sus at her previously because I was SRing Beat and marci was voting Beat alongside me and I thought tonally she felt fine, it was enough for D1 but in hindsight weren't great reasons to TR her

[GuiltyLion]

I can see why some people are getting suspicious of Marci but it just doesn’t click for me at all. I don’t think she’s scum here.

what has Marci done that you think she couldn't or wouldn't do as scum?

[GuiltyLion]

I have a hard time believing GL's gameplay this game hasn't just been finding a wagon he wants to join, and then finding reasoning to make it seem genuine. I don't get the sense he's actually scumhunting. He brought up reasons to scumread Marci but I don't get the sense he actually believes any of it.

I don't know exactly why but this kinda reminded me of something Alyssa said about me as a player one time, she has a hard time reading me because the difference between my town/scum game is usually

what

I choose to comment on rather than how I comment about it

I can understand disliking my general vibe but I don't think you have a good working model of what my town game vs scum game looks like - like what would you expect to see from me that would indicate whether I "believe" in what I'm posting that's missing here? Why don't you think that I think those are good points against marci?

[GuiltyLion]

honestly i want to afk

thats coming from someone who was hating on how fast wagons have been happening all game btw

marci can you like

vote and push a scumread

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like I should know more at this point but I don't and it's ick.

GuiltyLion's case on Marci resonates with me but he was also wrong on Beat so I'm not really comfortable giving him a second shot atp even though I think Beat was pretty scummy[cuz pretty scummy townies look pretty scummy to mafia too and GL's good enough of a scum to know to push people who look scummy]

I agree that Marci looks kind of scummy now.

I think this is fair, like I myself don't want to be calling all the shots necessarily especially if marci is town then game is in a bad state - I should prob be suspicious of anyone sheeping me too easily

I just don't like the Isis wagon and it does feel marci is a good bet for scum on the wagon

I could be convinced to sheep elsewhere if the case is good, but realistically that'd probably only be Gamma on the wagon currently? She's the only slot a decent number of my townreads are suspecting. Everyone else I don't want to paranoia re-evaluate yet nor do I like the current pushes against them (thinking of votes on Titus/Isis mainly).

one problem is I'm a very "things need to be happening to put scum in difficult situations" player and we have a number of players in this lobby (Fruit, marci, Pav, Cakez, even skitter on occasion) who seem content to either not vote or let their vote sit on a vanity wagon for extended periods of time, and when that happens every impulse in me is to fill the void and try to create a significant wagon

if I don't get to call the shot today then I need some other folks to step up and lead

[GuiltyLion]

like its true

idrc for being forced to give reads
even so, i dont even knowwhat my reads are rn, im so confused abt everything and i was purposely trying to fade out yeah.

like, if you're town here, this is just not helpful

you don't have to give reads on everyone but at least put a vote down and stand for

something

if you believe Gamma's scum you're never going to get them eliminated with this attitude so to me it's hard to see a genuine townie trying to win

[GuiltyLion]

Also i'm not sure i understand your isis townread - can you elaborate plz?

there's a bunch of posts from Isis where she's making insightful reads and pushing the game in a way that feels like authentic scumhunting. The latest such post that really made me feel "yup Isis town" is 1805 for example - I don't think it's as likely scum would have a) identified and remembered that marci's attitude towards Fruit changed specifically after Fruit called her out, b) thought to push it at this juncture in the game when marci isn't exactly a popular scumread.

and there's posts like this all over her ISO. your argument against her hasn't been convincing to me - like it feels like you're taking a post like 1669 far too seriously when you say it's "putting blame on Ari", and you're also holding onto 108 as if it's some super indicative thing when to me it seems like you just don't like the explanation/thought process moreso than it being something that town wouldn't post.

I took a stab at it here

I think another way for me to try to summarize it is the level of depth/complexity to her reasoning is something I generally think is difficult for scum to fake without starting to sound disingenuous or manipulative. The marci read I mentioned here is a good example, another random one I am pulling out of ISO is 1077 - if we were in a world where it's scum!Isis and town!Gamma, I don't think she's likely to come up with that sort of reasoning, because it's hard to think of these types of thought processes or reactions without it either a) sounding too much like BS or b) being self-conscious of the fact that it's BS. instead to me it feels genuine, like a player who is freely trying to capture and express things they don't like in others' posts

it's not a "she's never scum here" level of confidence but I'd much rather be chasing the more conventionally scummy slots first before getting too in my head about a world where Isis might be deep scum.

if I'm wrong I'd like to see Isis scum readers point out where exactly they think she's fabricating beliefs or twisting events to present a narrative. I know skitter hates 108 but that's like the only example anyone's given that I can recall off the top of my head.

also if skitt is town here I think she's so focused on trying to find the deepwolf that she's going to bat too much for the slots that have decent odds of being wolves on account of non-impactful/scummy play (Pav, marci, Gamma)

[GuiltyLion]

Spoiler: Gamma recent posts on Isis

Again, who are these alleged partners Isis says I have

It shouldn’t be that hard if you’re forming that sort of theory
VOTE: Isis
Feels like you’re trying to force a miselim on me.

pls guys fruits my friend and he isnt used to how ppl on forums play hes just playing with what he knows from (he does irl maf with friends) and discord maf

its prob a cultural shock for him

ugh fruits always just such a frustrating player to deal with.

he calls me filler, but thats just exactly what he is.
refuses to read at times, complains about wagons in a way that it seems like hes trying to prevent progression, only focusing on reading skitter, a weird lack of reads in his iso.

i know hes perfectly capable but also i know he just generally likes shitting around and being stubborn

i dont scumread fruit im just statimg facts

when hes town he usually gets in the way of good scumhunting where we play

I think the thing really sinister about this progression is that after 1275, TUF has been granted agency. If 1275 is taken well by the other players, modest efforts of scumhunting from fruit will followed up on, rather than if she didn't post it, then we might view it as being too low effort to signal boost compared to other people in the town.

After 1534 TUF doesn't have agency. He's discredited. If you engage the lines he's questioning along you're participating in "getting in the way of good scumhunting".

The thing that changed was that TUF suspected her.

1275 is perhaps the scummier feather on the scale in the end. She probably has long held a belief that fruit is ineffective, but she characterized his posting favorably in 1275 because she expected fruit to just bloc with her for free since he doesn't know anyone else in the game. She'd be interested in doing that as both alignments but more interested as scum because town!marci doesn't know whether she needs to just kill TUF d1 because he's scum (she's never actually posted an affirmative reason to townread him, all game)

This is actually rather compelling

Looking at VCs I feel like 25% more confident Isis is scum

Gamma can you walk me through the mindset of post 1830

how compelling is it really if you're keeping your vote on Isis and still think Isis is scum? I'm trying to check why your vote is on Isis and I get that you don't like her SR on you but where you then point out a good point she made against marci feels incongruent with the rest of this progression. I'm not seeing why you posted 1830 if you're ultimately ignoring it

[GuiltyLion]

I've read up but I am too tired atm to really brain correctly and play mafia

It's weird that there's a universal (edit: meuh liked it didn't she) consensus that Marci's reaction to her wagon was poor yet several vote switches away from her?(and a nonvote on skitter's part)

I didn't have a strong read on her reaction to the wagon personally, and Pavowski is a strong elim fmpov but it feels like I have sand in my tights

this is a mood

I might vote Pav tomorrow after sleeping on it but no promises

[GuiltyLion]

y'all last night I had a Mafia Anxiety Dream about this game where marci replaced out cause she got upset with me pressuring her and everyone thought I was a jerk

serves me right for reading the game in bed

anyway that's not game related but just wanted to share

I'm heading into work but I'll try to check in and give real thoughts or something during lunch

kinda also waiting to see Pav's reaction to this wagon

[GuiltyLion]

yes I mean I specifically intend for you to feel self-conscious if you are scum

if you are town your main objective should be sorting people though, not being townread?

like, do you think there is scum voting you currently? scum not voting you but angling to join the wagon? who is town voting you?

just give thoughts let me see you actually thinking about the game instead of floating in and out

[GuiltyLion]

Marci's stuff from like irl today (i.e. refusing to give reads, losing energy when pushed) i think is actually pretty prototypical of her scumgame

skitt I wanted to ask, is this based on direct experience with her? if so, which games

[GuiltyLion]

Skitter and Meuh lean town for me

why is Skitter town for you

[GuiltyLion]

can we not conflate being suspected as mafia with being unwelcome

I like playing with you, I hope people don't interpret my pushes or votes on them as me thinking they're not someone I enjoy playing with, that's never my intention

if you feel I've ignored anything you want to talk about let me know and I'll give it a response. I hadn't thought of anything further to say on your answer to my question about marci, I get that you similarly feel a bit lost/directionless but idk I still feel like it's a little odd she's so tunneled on you, no? especially assuming you are town?

[GuiltyLion]

there would be no way a wagon on me builds and neither a) marci hard-distances from me or b) she and scum number 3 put up the mother of all counterplays to ensure my elim doesn't happen

also on this, I know it's maybe an odd question since you are going to say you are town regardless of your alignment, but what would you say is the reason it's not a "hard distance" in this game? fmpov she's been calling you scummy all game, the only thing she hasn't done is vote you, she kept it parked on Beat. why is that not hard-distancing, is your claim that scum!marci would have voted scum!gamma?

[GuiltyLion]

yeh, fair enough I can understand that

maybe scum!Pav is trying to plant an associative with you and scum!marci

idk I'm trying to find town in {Pav/marci/Gamma} cause I do agree with skitt I don't think that's all three scum and possibly not even two, and you're currently my gut feel most likely to be town, but I think if that's the case you may be townreading a scum somewhere

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not sure if this really holds up or makes sense but I have this feeling that if Gamma is scum then marci is highly likely to be a partner because of Gamma's TR on marci and the way they don't seem to have interactions meant to sort each other, also it would mean scum!Gamma got really defensive about the idea that they were paired

but I don't think it works the other way, like a marci scumflip wouldn't necessarily point me to Gamma scum, I could see worlds where marci's been tunneling her to rile her up

p-edit: I mean I'm voting marci and I don't think your reasons for townreading her are very good

the thing I'm trying to work through right now is if Pav is more likely to be scum and if I should switch there, or if this is some kinda intentional counterwagon on town to derail from a scum!marci wagon

[GuiltyLion]

i thought u knew my style better lions

side note whys my brother so useless

meh I mean you fooled me a bit in Dance Party and I feel like I remember scumreading you in Shakespeare

I am curious about that skit comment though cause I kinda feel like my experience is you try harder to appear townie as scum than town

what did you make of skitt saying your reaction was prototypical of your scumgame

[GuiltyLion]

and wtf wasnt shakespear a town game

yeh that's my point, I was misreading you there, it was really Gamma that turned that slot around for me IIRC

[GuiltyLion]

Kinda weird for pav to quote an already short post and take out the logic part and say "no u"

also I think this is pretty bad from Pav the more I think about it

like Gamma made very clear arguments in that post that were

predicated on

how things went down the last time marci/Gamma were S-S

and Pav didn't respond to the claims that Gamma made, just took the premise out of context and treated it like it was the conclusion

VOTE: Pavowski

[GuiltyLion]

lol the way that game played out made me scared of playing another one and rolling scum, two of the most pivotal lims on scum happened largely because people were incorrectly scumreading the dance partner which I would absolutely not know how to deal with if I were in that situation haha

[GuiltyLion]

BRO I WAS TRYING MY BEST TO PROTECT NOT MAFIA BUT IT WAS ALL IN VAIN

it was actually so funny Norwee hard defending you to an implausible degree to the point where people started scumreading him, then he ragequits at being wagoned and N_M comes in and immediately self-votes to put you at E-1

yeah I remember I was thinking I should marry and vig you but I was afraid to do that if you were town cause I'd feel like a bully

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: coral
I'm not exactly confident on this but imo your approach to me is absolute ass

How on earth is this your response to 2242 lmao

Like I think 2242 is a really good post that resonates and this is all you have to say in response???

[GuiltyLion]

hmm hmm hmm

I'm stuck between not liking Pav and still kinda gut townreading Gamma, but also vibing with what Coral is saying about skitter/Gamma

I think despite what I've been posting/thinking about with weird marci/Gamma interactions I don't think both are scum and I do kinda like marcis audacity in just not at all capitulating to pressure. But it feels like one of them has to be scum and frankly not at all sure which

[GuiltyLion]

I guess maybe there's worlds where Gamma is scum trying to pocket/deflect marci by consistently townreading her

[GuiltyLion]

gamma why does it feel like you're looking for a reason to vote anywhere other than Pav

been skimming at work to stay current but will respond in detail to the requests from Ari on townbloc/etc a bit later when I can think through some things and process

[GuiltyLion]

HEAL: Ari
HEAL: Coral
HEAL: Isis
HEAL: Meuh

these my four most confident townreads

[GuiltyLion]

Also I would add tuf to the list of marci/gamma/pav/beat

was including Beat in this list intentional?

[GuiltyLion]

@skitter - hmm ok

I'm waffling on both marci/gamma, earlier this week I thought marci was scummier of the two but recently I've been feeling instead that Gamma's the red, but either way I feel like Pav has been consistently bad to a more significant degree than either of marci or gamma so not sure why you want to switch vote now

like I also don't like that there was meaningful game related content between 2285 and 2381, especially a post like 2242 and your response to it 2287, and he just mentions none of that to drop a random Fruit vote

(I know that I haven't really weighed in on 2287 meaningfully yet either so maybe a dash of hypocrisy here buuuut that's how I feel)

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, meant 2225 not 2285

[GuiltyLion]

whoever gets elected will pick the elimination via whatever means they want

vote for me and we'll turn this into a Baton Pass game!

[GuiltyLion]

did any of y'all watch the new season of the Circle they had a baton pass elimination and it was spicy

[GuiltyLion]

It seems like me/beat/pav/Marci are all being suspected for not really doing much to solve, but there’s a critical thinking error in that people aren’t processing “hey maybe that’s just not actually scum indicative in the slightest here”. If they can’t recognize that pattern at this point they are playing poorly, and anyone that does see it and does not aim to convince those that don’t of it is also playing poorly.

I just think it’s fucking stupid that whoever is town in this shithole of a game apart from me/Marci/beat/pav+you, Titus, and GL have basically opted to take a shortcut to solving the game vs. actually solving
Here’s a fun question for anyone pushing any combination of me/Marci/pav: what the fuck do you think TUF is doing here?

rereading these 90s pages again and Gamma feels a lil townie to me for the righteous indignation, especially in these two posts. I don't really love that Gamma seems okay with the fact that so many players are not solving yet resistant to wagons on most of those players, but I do think trying to push on TUF feels unlikely to come from scum? like TUF is probably the least suspected lurker at the moment, and most scum with Gamma's level of experience aren't going to believe that a "why me" post would look good, so I kinda feel Gamma is genuine here. also if nothing else Gamma has at least been meaningfully

present

the past few RL days compared to slots like Cakez & Pav.

but then I'm stuck with if all of Meuh/Ari/Isis/gamma/marci are in fact town then who was scum on the Beat wagon

is there any sense in wondering whether Beat was an all town wagon or is that just absolute lunacy

still feel worst overall about Pav
maybe I'm giving too much leeway to Cakez and Fruit

[GuiltyLion]

I prob should have asked this yesterday but can you explain why scum!skitt would be

more

strong in defending you if you are town? Doesn't it serve her to let you get miseliminated? what benefit would WK-ing you specifically for her here?

[GuiltyLion]

omg can we please stop with the self-voting and AtE

like if nothing else OMGUSing is almost always a better response

guys it's just a game and it really does not need to be that hard to play

good reminder tho I need to check marci's play in that game skitter brought up

and yeah it was the American one, I've only watched that and the France season which was also great

[GuiltyLion]

wait hold up that scum game that skitter was basing her point off of was from a year ago and marci had 11 posts

hard to feel that's a genuine point of reference when marci's had much stronger scum performances since then...

[GuiltyLion]

I just wanna lim Pav at this point

idk what to do about the fact that the other slots we've pressured today don't seem to want to lim Pav

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like Isis’ voting record is blatantly bad here

I feel like people who don't vote or barely explain their votes are much worse than someone like Isis shuffling through several different scumreads

[GuiltyLion]

I just wanna say this plist makes me happy

VOTE: Guiltylion

like, Meuh says she thinks Beat is town, thinks you're town and has no issue with your push on Beat

says she thinks Isis is town, has no issue with Cakez vote on Isis and actually grills me for calling it out

this is the behavior I'm pointing to when I say Meuh is looking more to make buddies than find scum, usually townies are at least somewhat suspicious of people voting and casing their townreads

I think of posts like this and I think this is good analysis of Meuh

But then

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Not engaging with my response to GL’s argument at all, not asking me any questions to try sorting me, just echoing what’s already been said.
You have more experience playing with me (and a more accurate history of reading me) than GL and you’ve already seen Marci’s D1 tonal reads on me be very wrong.
The fact you’re willing to just go along with this push and rely on Marci/GL would be more understandable if we had never played together.
But here, I think it’s pretty telling.

I think this is fair and I sense there may be opportunism in the Meuh votes so I'm gonna trust my gut for the moment and see where this goes

VOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Gamma

this feels like a good place to start

VOTE: Fruit

all four (4) of Pavowski's votes this game

I don't see how someone looks at this and thinks "yeah this guy is trying to eliminate scum"

[GuiltyLion]

UNOFFICIAL GL VC PLEASE NOTE UNOFFICIAL

VOTE COUNT GL

[4]

The Ugly Fruit

: Meuh, Pavowski, Gamma Emerald, marcistar

[3]

Pavowski

: skitter30, Titus, GuiltyLion

[2]

marcistar

: The Ugly Fruit, SirCakez

[1]

skitter30

: Isis

[1]

Gamma Emerald

: Coral

[1]

Not voting

: Aristeia

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day two ends in (expired on 2022-06-21 19:53:27)

in the mean time we could talk about this

do we think all three of the leading wagons are on town? If so, what are scum doing?

if not, which of the three is most likely to be scum (directed at Isis, Coral, Ari)

it kinda occurs to me that for as much flack as we've been giving slots like marci/gamma/Pav for not doing anything, at least they're voting active wagons as of now
my townreads are the ones who are kinda just not advancing the game right now

[GuiltyLion]

at least they're voting active wagons as of now

well I guess more accurately I should say they've all collectively piled on a wagon to lim a

different

non-engaged lurky player

[GuiltyLion]

yeh, make the safest most frictionless vote available

[GuiltyLion]

the funniest timeline is if it's like Gamma/Pav/Fruit, and Gamma/Pav are bussing to try to gain towncred and take the heat off themselves

[GuiltyLion]

btw follow up on my post 2531, I checked my last couple games with town!Pav and in both of them he was more liberal with his vote and more willing to participate in wagon building. Cop Killer was kind of a meme game but Shakespeare especially stands out as a contrast to this one

Pav ISO in Cop Killer
Pav ISO in Shakespeare

I understand he was V/LA at a beach for a significant portion of D1 but we're halfway through D2 now and his lack of voting initiative has not substantially changed

[GuiltyLion]

mmm good luck ! hope your flight actually gets off the ground tonight

same skitter! sorry to hear about the troubles

[GuiltyLion]

Make the case Marci, I'm ready to believe you

she already did in 2493 not 5 pages ago

[GuiltyLion]

I am happy to hear everyone's thoughts about who they want to kill.

Pav my top choice (another log for the "Pav is scum" fire is that he just apparently completely missed marci's case on Isis, I have to think townies who actually care about sorting & solving would have clocked it while reading)

would be ok with any of marci/Gamma/Fruit as alternate choices, though my confidence in finding the town/scum in those is lower than my confidence in scum!Pav

anyone else feels like a bad choice to me, though I will sheep

[GuiltyLion]

would be ok with any of marci

sobbing rn

if it makes you feel better I almost didn't include you

I'm stuck on trying to find scum on the Beat wagon, I feel like it's most likely in you/Gamma, but I keep waffling on Gamma and that makes me waffle on you

[GuiltyLion]

Feels like you’re comfortable with things because you expect the monarch thing to work out in your favor.

Brrrt reach alert

[GuiltyLion]

I wanted to include the police siren emoji in that post but mafiascum forum didn't like it

[GuiltyLion]

ok, well that was a terrifically scummy post so yeah I'm thinking you are scum now

[GuiltyLion]

but you weren't trying to sort, you invented a narrative where 1. Fruit was

pretending

to be apathetic about being limmed because 2. Fruit thought Ari wouldn't pick him as the lim today

and I don't see any actual evidence or reason for believing either 1 or 2 in the thread

so yeah, strikes me as reaching to create a reason to scumread Fruit rather than genuine sorting

[GuiltyLion]

but you weren't trying to sort, you invented a narrative where 1. Fruit was

pretending

to be apathetic about being limmed because 2. Fruit thought Ari wouldn't pick him as the lim today

and I don't see any actual evidence or reason for believing either 1 or 2 in the thread

so yeah, strikes me as reaching to create a reason to scumread Fruit rather than genuine sorting

actually in fairness on reread you didn't accuse or imply Fruit was faking apathy, you said "comfortable with things" and I assumed that to mean he was putting on a front, but it might not actually have meant that in how you expressed it so I'll retract that point

but point 2 is still the main one and still a giant reach

[GuiltyLion]

Is point 2 a reach? Has Ari been indicating TUF seemed scum for her?

did Fruit indicate to you he had any idea that Ari was elected Queen? that he even knows what Ari's reads are?

[GuiltyLion]

to clarify in case of any misunderstanding, I'm not saying the reach is:

-Ari wouldn't pick Fruit

the reach is:

-

Fruit believes

Ari won't pick Fruit and is playing based on that

p-edit: ok, so now you are starting from a point of assuming Fruit is scum and thus in a PT with scumbuds telling him what's going on, so therefore he knows Ari is Queen and won't pick him, and therefore he's playing accordingly. that's still just as much a narrative you are inventing rather than a read you reasoned yourself to. The argument is built on an assumption that Fruit is scum from the start.

[GuiltyLion]

Seeking a replacement for Gamma Emerald.

meh I stand by my point

until proven otherwise by a townflip in either of them, I'm buying more stock in my Pav/Gamma read. Pav was also a voter on the first Gamma wagon (331), then unvoted once he had a good opportunity to do so (355), and did not rejoin at any point when Gamma wagon had it's second heyday (893), then Day 2 he voted Gamma but didn't push it at all (at least I don't remember any Pav pushing for Gamma lim) and moved to Fruit once Fruit was a viable wagon

and Gamma gave a very weak justification as to why she was avoiding voting Pav (2421)

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, had the wrong post pulled up for Gamma's Pav reasoning - it is actually 2421 but I initially linked 2110 before catching my mistake in p-edit, and the post link didn't update

[GuiltyLion]

Respectfully, I don't appreciate the allegation that I'm not playing / don't care.

Sorry, I see how that phrasing was more harsh than I intended it, especially if you are town.

if it helps at all, when I said "actually care" it was in reference to townies (who -actually- care) vs scum (who don't care because they're informed), I didn't mean to imply you don't care because of you as a player or person, I was saying you don't care because of your alignment. But I should have worded it better.

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

Hey everyone, I don't really intend to reread unless I get bored one day or become particularly determined to root something out.

I see a VT flip Day 1 and I am down to hear a brief tl;dr on who I should vote. I've got a loose grasp on the setup. I'm around to chat for a bit.

at the moment we've stalled on wagoning and pressuring several suspects (your slot hit E-2 twice on D1 and is fairly suspected still, myself included), but other popular scumreads are theuglyfruit, Pavowksi, and marcistar (though maybe to a lesser degree), at a very abstract / general level the common sentiment is that these slots haven't been as engaged/present in scum hunting and are mostly sitting back while Ari, Isis, skitter, Coral have been arguing about which wagons/reads are best. Titus/SirCakez have been less involved but are pretty generally townread. Meuh is kinda in between those two camps, fairly townread but (in my opinion) not as directly engaged in some of the more significant debates of D1/D2, though definitely moreso than Titus or Cakez. I'm abstaining from commenting on myself

as a strategy to shake things up from the apathetic/stalled state, we held an election of most townread player and Ari got the most votes at 6, so we plan to let her decide the lim today.

you should probably look at the VCs of D1 as well as the Fruit wagon, which your predecessor supported, and maybe ISO Ari if you have any major concerns with her picking a lim today.

[GuiltyLion]

I am one vote so if everyone actually bought into the kingmaker idea then shrug, okay.

I think we all got frustrated at every wagon on that pool of gamma/marci/TUF/Pav getting 4 or 5 votes than getting stuck while the remaining players argued against it, and it's been difficult parsing out who is WKing, who is avoiding bussing a buddy, or generally which of that pool of slots are town.

[GuiltyLion]

also each of gamma, marci, TUF have played various cards of "I don't care if I'm limmed", self-voting, AtE about being suspected or pressured to give reads. Pav less so but there was a post at some point where he was like "if my flip helps the game so be it", and this attitude from the suspects has kinda furthered apathy because I think what people want most of all is just for these slots to try harder and they're all kinda refusing and maintaining the air of surface-level-scumminess while not giving much by way of real content that would help discern them further

[GuiltyLion]

theres been some posts where shes started out vaguely game related, but then it turns into word vomit.
i dont really like that sort of stuff, since it seems distracting from the point but shes done it more than once it seems a bit like a personality thing

i feel like shes a possible partner to a couple people.

i feel like theres been times where... she only really thinks things as it becomes a semitalked about topic.

keeps repeating the same point "red flips arent that bad" i feel like once is enough but its just filling more space and faking the busyness the more and more its said

I feel like Cakez has too many reads that all dropped at once, feels more like press releases from a PR team than a solo journalist you dig

very much a read dropped and then forgotten about until her update of "i dont think that anymore" but like ?? amazing progression on that is shown where? it feels like a very back of the mind read

1080 was pretty weird timing for that read on gamma

i didnt like her hammer on beat

1533 with 1540 afterwards feels weird

1630 1648 i dont like what shes done with those reads after shes posted
like "i think gamma has teammates" seems pretty confident of a read, but settles for beat? IDK

1839 just the way she phrases things
like "nO wAy I cAnT eLiM wHo I wAnT sO i'Ll GiVe Up AnD gO fOr ThIs InStEaD" like at that point she seemed fairly confident on her skitter read so why not go for what ur heart wants
i think usually townies like to think they'll always be right, and like to push people they super believe in being scum, so i dont get why she keeps rolling over.

- -

im not good at this stuff im sorry its mostly just vibes and then i went to try and find the vibes and then tried to explain why i had the vibes but idk if this is exactly what ive been meaning
just say its vibes and thats it

to her credit marci did post this case on Isis and then most people ignored it rip

I've been hoping I'd organically start to feel some kind of decided way about it one way or the other but I'm truly mixed, it gives me a genuine vibe tonally but it was produced under duress and I don't really agree with the read on Isis and could imagine some of these points being faked. I think what I like about it is it doesn't feel too forced or too specifically made to appease or convince people, but it's not enough for me to decidedly townbin marci

[GuiltyLion]

not giving much by way of real content that would help discern them further

my isis read rn: am i a joke to you???

SIDE NOTE
MY SUNDRESS SISTERS THR PACKAGE HAS ARRIVED IM SCARED TO OPEN IT

lol I was literally typing a post on that

[GuiltyLion]

I'd slot her as town for those two posts in sequence, but not a ton of confidence.

now you just have to get to a similar conclusion on one more of your choice of {fruit, pav} while scumreading the other and you'll be in the same boat as the rest of us

[GuiltyLion]

Meuh do you have any thoughts or things to say about like... my Gamma push right before she replaced out, or my case on Pav

I do understand people scumreading me based on my position on the Beat wagon and the way I play but kinda similar to Coral I don't really vibe with you coming back to the thread and switching back to me without even acknowledging anything I've done the past few days

if it were me I'd want to be casing active content so people can see where and why my scumread is being scummy

(Fiona Apple is great tho)

[GuiltyLion]

ah actually you know that's fair cause I am nothing if not a proponent of voting a scumread >>> voting nobody

if you've read up but haven't absorbed it yet I get that, think maybe I'm just being picky cause I thought I actually had a good point on Gamma and was expecting there'd at least be something to talk about in my recent play, but your response makes sense and not playing how I expect is not necessarily scummy in this instance I think

just uh, keep me posted on if you do ultimately find anything there scummy or convincing or whatever

[GuiltyLion]

Is what Gamma said maybe a bit of a stretch? Sure
Does it seem particularly malicious or disingenuous? Not really

mmm this is probably a core issue of our different views

IMO it's one of the most disingenuous points made all game, any time I feel someone is inventing a narrative for why they're scumreading someone it fires all the scumdar alerts because townies just don't tend to think that way whereas every scum post pushing or casing town is an exercise in fabricating things (that you know are false) to sell a story making somebody look bad.

It's hard for me to square Gamma's post as non-malicious when the primary reason he was posting it was to shade Fruit. And I don't think it's genuine for reasons I've stated - there wasn't anything in any of Fruit's posts that should have made Gamma believe that Fruit was purposefully aware of the monarch plan, the fact that Ari was the monarch, the belief that Ari was townreading Fruit, etc. Especially considering that the whole game Fruit has not seemed to be paying attention to anything happening on pages where he is not posting.

I just don't see how Gamma would earnestly come to a conclusion that Fruit is 'comfortable' because he doesn't think he's going to be selected to be unilaterally put up for lim by Ari. Fruit wasn't saying anything about it and was basically just thread prodging. There was no sign off on the monarch plan, no response to any of the heal votes, no appeal to Ari about who to eliminate. Being confident that Fruit was aware of any of this just feels fundamentally fake.

It seems like (and Gamma said it was) a vibe read and you seem to be addressing it as a fully fledged argument against Fruit.
Your reaction reads like the reaction to Gamma putting out a confident read about a scum pairing, while in reality it feels more like Gamma just had a fleeting thought about a scenario where Fruit was scum that made sense to her. and you're treating it as something more. Not sure what that means about your own alignment.

I'm a bit confused what you mean by "pairing" here - my reaction is just about Gamma's read on fruit?

regardless, "vibe read" or no, I don't think the strength/conviction in how Gamma presented the read affects the fact that the reasoning itself is what strikes me as inherently disingenuous. Gamma was

assuming

scum!motivation to Fruit to share that 'vibe', whether he presents that as a passing thought or a full on case doesn't really change my issue with it.

[GuiltyLion]

I didn't interpret any of Gamma's posts to be explicitly arguing that Ari/Fruit were a pairing? if so I missed that

I just thought Gamma believed Ari was not going to lim Fruit

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like as scum he could have been fed Ari’s takes in the PT

in fact if anything this sorta implies that Gamma thinks Ari is town, because otherwise why would scum need to be feeding Ari's takes to Fruit in a PT when Ari is right there to chart out a plan herself

[GuiltyLion]

i admire isis shes so confident to share a pic with strangers

Same!! She looks amazing!

+1!! a winning selfie to go with (hopefully) a winning vote

[GuiltyLion]

I am extremely sleep deprived but while I wait for a wasp to leave my bed I might as well post.

Can someone lay out the general reasoning on Pav? A link to any writeup/real post is also okay with me, doesn't have to be a full case wall.

gist of my case on Pav

- Absentee voting record, he has made four votes this game. One on me for RVS, one on Gamma for the first real wagon of the game (he unvoted that later and didn't vote again on D1), one on Gamma on D2 because it was a "good place to start", and then one on Fruit mid-late D2 when that wagon was gaining steam. None of these votes were accompanied with serious pressure on the person being voted, none of them display a lot of initiative to shape the game towards an elimination Pav wants.

- in addition to the sparse voting record, Pav's other posts/commentary on things isn't meaty or substantial. I have a hard time recalling off the top of my head who Pav scumreads and why. There's not a lot of effort to engage with other players to give his opinions or thoughts on their cases and reads. One post that really stood out to me as non-commentary was 1507, where Pav replied to Fruit pushing against a Beat wagon by saying that either a Beat or Gamma flip will "get us some info", yet he expressed no opinion whatsoever on which of those flips he'd prefer.

- 1507 also aged like milk when Pav later posted 1878 where Pav said he didn't vote EOD1 because he didn't like the end of day wagons (Beat, Ari), yet Pav didn't really give any resistance to either wagon when he was encouraging Fruit (and the rest of the game) to compromise somewhere for a flip ??

- In 2572 Pav asked Marci to make a case on Isis that she had just made in 2493. The fact that he missed or forgot that marci had already posted her feelings about Isis makes me feel he is not closely reading because he does not need to genuinely look for info to make reads.

[GuiltyLion]

Pavowski has literally not done a goddamn thing but get high as a kite and go "...Marci and Fruit, man, am I right?"

I don't like to reward doing that but holy guacamole if I were his scum partner I would throw him out the fuckin window I think he's chill for the day

P-Edit: Will read that in a sec then respond

yeah, it's a bit weird in that if he's scum it doesn't feel like he's getting bussed or else he probably would have gone over much earlier than now

I tried to prompt Gamma a few times on why she didn't seem to be interested in Pav at all and she basically said "people are wagoning Pav for the same reasons they wagoned me so it's a bad wagon" ([post]2421[post]). This is part of why I'm also interested in your slot because I think regardless of Pav's alignment Gamma's resistance to a Pav vote felt implausible. I need to review Gamma ISO again but I don't recall her ever actually putting a foot in the ground for a Pav townread, just kept pushing alternate votes and wagons

[GuiltyLion]

oh and I forgot to add one other thing in my case which is that this doesn't neatly track with my experience with town!Pav in prior games. In Shakespeare especially, he demonstrated a lot more initiative in how he used his vote and how he participated in wagons and discussion.

[GuiltyLion]

hey y'all, happy to see that I'm confirmed town and I got four friends confirmed alongside me ^_^. it makes me feel a tiny bit better about posting a glorified prod dodge for now as I'm tired and plan on rereading substantial parts of the game with all these confirmed alignments in mind tomorrow.

I've skimmed the D3 posts so far and I do have some thoughts but I also wanna wait til marci and Meuh check in before really making moves

[GuiltyLion]

actually I do have one question for now for both Faker and Cakez

Marci was far from a UTR I pushed her as being scum

I think someone else did too?

I also pushed marci fairly strongly for a lot of D2. I eventually evolved it into a "maybe you're town and Gamma is scum" read, but she never fully left my POE

so my question here for marci scumreaders, why do you think scum!marci clears two of the people most likely to vote her, instead of skitter or Meuh?

also, another discussion q to think about (I kinda just want to raise it, I don't know what my thoughts are yet):

[7]

Beat

:

Titus

, Meuh,

GuiltyLion

, marcistar, Gamma Emerald,

Aristeia

,

Isis

how many scum do we think are on wagon here? 1? 2? who is the townie in the uncleared folks?

p-edit: oh dang Ari beat me to it with substantially more effort lol

[GuiltyLion]

normally I'd say VC 2.5 is a fairly decent look for skitter but I need to reread the context to see where we were with the monarch plan at that point and if skitter would have reason to push elsewhere if there was a chance Pavo could be saved

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not saying my refusal to weigh in on these is supposed to be town-indicative or readily accepted without pushback, to be clear.

Nah that's fair I didn't really fully consider you don't have all the context. I think as either alignment bsing an answer about things you haven't read would be a bad look so I get this

[GuiltyLion]

I'm rereading the early game and looking at how people are interacting with conftownies and confscum Pav, I'm probably gonna quote/reference some things that were already brought up sorry in advance

VOTE: Meuh good call tbh, fast and loose is a much better play than slow and steady

Of the Meuh votes I like this one the least

(See? I don't have to make jokes, I could have said this one is the worst)

like, Meuh says she thinks Beat is town, thinks you're town and has no issue with your push on Beat

says she thinks Isis is town, has no issue with Cakez vote on Isis and actually grills me for calling it out

this is the behavior I'm pointing to when I say Meuh is looking more to make buddies than find scum, usually townies are at least somewhat suspicious of people voting and casing their townreads

I think of posts like this and I think this is good analysis of Meuh

But then

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Not engaging with my response to GL’s argument at all, not asking me any questions to try sorting me, just echoing what’s already been said.
You have more experience playing with me (and a more accurate history of reading me) than GL and you’ve already seen Marci’s D1 tonal reads on me be very wrong.
The fact you’re willing to just go along with this push and rely on Marci/GL would be more understandable if we had never played together.
But here, I think it’s pretty telling.

I think this is fair and I sense there may be opportunism in the Meuh votes so I'm gonna trust my gut for the moment and see where this goes

VOTE: Gamma

I'm not familiar with how Pav plays scum but in a surface-take world this feels like an attempt to push back against the Meuh wagon, light distancing with her in agreeing with me about Meuh but then implying all the votes on her are bad and saying there "may be opportunism in the Meuh votes"

like if Meuh is town what's the point of this? Pocketing her?

I could maybe see it in a scum!Gamma world to try to lay the foundation for some Real Distancing, but I do agree with Ari that Gamma's blow up at Pav later in the game feels very anti-partnery so right now I'm trying to look at things through a lens of Gamma-town currently

[GuiltyLion]

[5] Gamma Emerald:

Beat

,

Aristeia

, Meuh,

Pavowski

, SirCakez

then again I do feel like generally scum don't clump together on early game wagons like this, it makes it hard to be flexible later, and the fact that Gamma wagon died quickly after and then came back and died

again

later on D1 feels like scum didn't intend to push it hard for a D1 miselim

[GuiltyLion]

sorry I got distracted with a break for a j

lions give me 2 ppl to iso

Meuh + Skitter

especially what you think of Meuh's attitude of "lim through the Beat wagon and we win"

[GuiltyLion]

I dont really see any reason Pav should be scumread at this point and it makes me wary of the motion in that direction.
VOTE: Meuh

Like this feels like how scum would defend their partner

-Through scumreading a third party

-While not actively stating they think their partner is town

Especially how much this setup make red flips bad for the scumteam

kinda early/convenient to be making partner reads?

of course there's context in that Meuh was voting Pav earlier, and I know that other people have speculated about Pav and potential Pav partners throughout the game, but something in this post kinda feels a little too aware about Pav's flip being red, especially when Meuh wasn't even voting Pav anymore here

[GuiltyLion]

fruits prob town

like in the way of, i dont think his scumbuddies would leave him this clueless

aah I forgot about how much I liked this read

I generally don't see scum preemptively WK really super limbaity townies. Like no one was seriously pushing Fruit all that much, but he just posted something fairly classically newb-scummy, and marci almost immediately goes for a townread instead

I think scum are really averse to doing that because they wanna keep miselim options open, even if they don't plan to push it themselves I feel scum!marci could just stay silent here and assess how townies react to his posts before deciding on what her angle would be

[GuiltyLion]

[3] SirCakez:

GuiltyLion

, Meuh,

Isis

[3] Meuh: Gamma Emerald, the worst,

Beat

GL half-ass VCA

probably one of these wagons is on scum, if both were town I feel like one of them would have lasted longer instead of Gamma/Beat springing back up

[GuiltyLion]

hey everyone I'll try to do a bit more reading and being around tonight but it'll be a bit sporadic - frankly this is a tough week for me as I'm preparing for a trip this weekend (Thurs-Mon) and then going on said aforementioned trip so I'll be V/LA Thurs-Sun and a lot of my time today and tomorrow is eaten up with packing and whatnot. I'll def try to at least get a primary scumread and vote down so you all aren't just left hanging while I'm in and out this weekend

as I start reading, can't resist a completely pointless exercise in hubris and self-indulgence, I do find it amusing when people say stuff like this:

I concurred that GuiltyLion's reasoning there was Quite Bad.

because was I not right on Isis at the end of the day after all ? maybe my reasoning is just some next level galaxy brain stuff

[GuiltyLion]

I still think Duck is town even setting aside most other reasoning for the blow up at Ari, followed by the replace out, and then especially followed by Pav trying to throw some dirt on him afterwards (1820). I believe the worst would not have gotten nearly as tilted by Ari if he knew deep down that there was merit to what Ari was saying.

Coral/marci are my two more confident townreads currently of the uncleared players, but that's still a WIP as I continue to look through the game again

[GuiltyLion]

I’m not really getting the impression Isis v Skitter is a T/T situation tbh

If there’s scum there I’d lean towards Skitter at the moment

kinda don't like this post knowing for certain now that Isis is town

Beat pushes Meuh on this and she explains a bit more in 847 and 1024 but then doesn't really do any further digging into either of Isis or Skitter throughout the rest of D1.

It felt reasonable at the time so I can't entirely lock scumread it, but I can too easily imagine it as a scumpost casually fanning the flames of a T/T from afar

[GuiltyLion]

Meuh, what would you say you've done this game that you wouldn't do as scum? what's the strongest point (in your mind) of evidence for you as town?

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez do you see anything between marci/Meuh that looks partnery? are you more confident on marci?

(also feel free to refer me back to a prior post if you've answered these already, just trying to participate in real time while I'm here and rereading)

[GuiltyLion]

I might if one of them flips scum

:thonk:

[GuiltyLion]

I guess that comment makes sense if Cakez is assuming scum will escape instead of being limmed today? or did he just forget that limming scum today is autowin? is that more likely to come from town?

I want that post to be a slip in one direction or the other but I don't know if it intuitively makes sense to me which direction it'd be AI

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see a lot of partners for skitter tbh, she feels like she's all alone this game

it's likely not Cakez (blatant D1 buddying/agreeing, doesn't feel S-S), it's likely not Meuh (potential duel to the death today), need to review interactions with marci but I feel like I remember someone v recently saying they're not aligned for some reason, and there was an interaction around Pav I remember feeling really anti-partnery

which just kinda leaves Coral/Cakez?

p-edit: Yah, but that actually maybe feels more town indicative from skitter, like I could see town forgetting about the scum escape mechanic on their townflip, whereas Cakez seems to have a default assumption of either 1) we're not limming scum today or 2) game would continue if scum get limmed. Both are a bit wonky to me but if it was truly genuinely 2 that feels hard to imagine coming from scum

[GuiltyLion]

though I guess I could see it coming from scum!skitter as a not-fully-thought-out-bluff

[GuiltyLion]

which just kinda leaves Coral/

Cakez

Faker

?

EBWOP also this should have been Faker if that wasn't clear

[GuiltyLion]

Skit's whole dialogue and de-escalation with Ari in the 50s-pages feels overall town to me still on reread

Like there was friction between them for a lot of the game leading up to it but I think if Skit had an agenda she would have kept pushing for it in some form or another instead of olive branch reach out in 1251 and 1348? Those posts just feel plain ol pure to me, I don't smell any manipulation

I'd defer to Ari on it if she has a different opinion but personally from the outside it feels like a real TvT

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno I'm still trying to parse out how I feel overall

I think if I had to take a preliminary stab at it I'd go town to scum
marci->Coral->skitt->Meuh->Faker->Cakez

but these are all very close to each other and Faker/Cakez (while not impossible) doesn't quite scream correct solve to me

[GuiltyLion]

one thing that I want to pay closer attention to (once I decide I'm done rereading D1) is Faker's evolution from hard pushing Cakez EOD2 to pushing marci today

It could make sense to me as S-S, like, distance enough so that when one escapes tonight it feels implausible that the other is partnered, while not actually actively working to get each other limmed

I'm not absolutely sold on marci!town but people seriously advocating for her lim today need to do a lot more work to sell me on that read

[GuiltyLion]

I will say through page 56 there has not been a single thing that makes me think Cakez and Pav are likely not aligned

[GuiltyLion]

I townread worst, Ari, Meuh, Marci, skitter, GL
Scumread Gamma and Beat for sure, Titus is sliding in here and I had Isis as scum but I haven't hated her recent posts
Leaving me with the question marks of Pav, TUF

like this is Cakez first actual mention of Pav and it's 62 pages into the game

[GuiltyLion]

how is reversing a question that i'd just asked someone else "a good faith question"? like why would i ever be incentivised to answer this when you asked it?

i think gamma's specific brand of explosion is probably town indicative. i don't think that's specifically because of the vote pattern pav was looking at though and i was interested in him expanding.

you're asking him a question which implies you've thought about it yourself if you're town.

you are incentivized to answer me because you want me to sort you correctly

especially

if I get flipped today because in the case that I'm town you want me to slot you correctly. If I don't slot you correctly there's a fairly good chance I can kill you from the grave and that likely leads to a town loss.

i feel zero pressure to be read correctly by you. i don't think you're town here, and i trust 1) actual town to get me right; 2) myself to react to a gamestate where i need to be easier to read. my priority here is to sort other slots. my answering that question explicitly signals to pav what i'm looking for in a response and disallows me to use that line of enquiry to sort a slot i'm not confident on (pav).



pedit: allergic ;(

this is not a complicated or niche situation. this is how sorting people works.

i didn't "fart noise" because i don't want to engage with you. i "fart noise"d to signal that my answering that question would be a misplay on my part. idk, another active player on this site has accused me of being a bully as well so maybe i am just toxic. what you're reading into that response is far from my intention though.

forgot about this post but this is super town IMO in light of Pav scumflip and Ari town

[GuiltyLion]

Also maybe I'm taking crazy pills but I do not find the Marci / Fruit back and forth genuine

does Pav post this if marci is his partner? what's the gain? marci would probably easily win a 1v1 with Fruit here, she doesn't need buddies to help, all this would be doing is shining a light on a scumbuddy who is largely townread at this point

[GuiltyLion]

I think you misunderstood that Isis post, I believe she's saying she's not confident enough on you!scum to disagree with Ari & me townreading you

[GuiltyLion]

Mod/Game: V/LA until Monday

I'm at Electric Forest in Michigan and will hopefully be able to check in on the game in the mornings and play a lil bit but unsure how my service will be and definitely won't be able to play most of the time

i have this little evil recurring thought of lim cakez and if that doesn't work agonize over which side of skitter-meuh to do

this is actually where I am currently. I wanted to get further on my reread (and will try to as I'm in the car on this last leg of the journey) and synthesize everything everyone's been saying on D3, but through 65 pages I kinda feel like Cakez is the best vote.

If Faker is town, it's a good vote
If skitter/Meuh is TvT, it's a good vote

and I wanna see whether anyone is townreading Cakez and doesn't want to vote there
VOTE: SirCakez

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno I'm still trying to parse out how I feel overall

I think if I had to take a preliminary stab at it I'd go town to scum
marci->Coral->skitt->Meuh->Faker->Cakez

but these are all very close to each other and Faker/Cakez (while not impossible) doesn't quite scream correct solve to me

I really, really think meuh should be higher/first on this list

also Skitt am I misunderstanding this or are you saying you think Meuh is the most townie of the uncleared players?

[GuiltyLion]

Also I'm not particularly interested in voting Cakez. Like he makes sense in some pairs ig and there's some content I like from others, but I still gutread him as town. I feel like voting him as a compromise because I'm too scared of others being town is an easy way to end up with a mislim. I don't recall those kind of votes turning out very well.

Maybe I'm just clinging too hard onto that read but voting for the person I had the biggest townread on at the start of the day (within the pool) just sounds bad.

Why do you have such a confident gut townread on him, though? Like I see absolutely nothing in his ISO that makes me think he's not partnered with Pav nor that he's especially strong town by play, whereas I have glimmers of that with almost everyone else. That makes him feel like a good lim to me, not a bad one.

[GuiltyLion]

I will probably have to do actual work to case this and case marci as town again I guess at some point. Truly do not understand what's driving marci scumreads other than laziness. Even EOD2 I doubt marci posts extremely half ass "why pav" posts when he's going down if she knows he's flipping red

[GuiltyLion]

i dont want the pav wagon so yeah im not joining

[6] Pavowski: skitter30, Titus, GuiltyLion, Aristeia, Meuh, Isis

guys pls stop doing not good things

I have a hard time thinking scum wants to defend a
doomed partner so blatantly yet ineffectively, there's no towncred to be gained here nor any chance of saving him.

[GuiltyLion]

Skimmed since my last post and will try to do some real playing tomorrow am

I don't think it's safe to assume Faker town though honestly that's largely a legacy scumread on Gamma. Some of her play feels a little agenda driven but need to actually really digest her ISO before I can feel good about assessing it.

I get bad vibes from that skitter case on Coral, parts of it felt reachy, Corals reply covers a lot of my same feelings. And I think anyone advocating for scum!Coral needs to also explain why scum!tw behaves like he did, the argument with Ari doesn't feel like something that would have riled him up so much if he had a red role pm.

[GuiltyLion]

Omg Andante and in a confirmed town slot to boot! exciting!!! Welcome

[GuiltyLion]

Hey everyone, I am BACK ON THE GRID!! Sorry for the absence it was a bit more total than I was expecting but I am home now and ready to get back in this. Gonna unpack and relax a little bit tonight first before catching up but I'll try to read up and make some posts before bed tonight over the next few hours

[GuiltyLion]

Pedit hi gl!!!! Hope you had a good time

thanks Skitter yah it was unreal!

I got to see Porter Robinson play three different sets, one of them on an organ for like 100 people I was not 20 feet away so I'm still basking in that glow for the rest of my life

[GuiltyLion]

If gl has at least 4 hours for this game I will likely sheep him but if he has to skin I'll be spicy

save us hobbes

Lol I don't have 4 hours all tonight but I'm definitely reading everything D3 and giving reads and tomorrow I should be around playing all day

[GuiltyLion]

ah y'all I been reading and trying to catch up, through 152 I'm so sleepy I don't think I'm digesting information anymore

I will say I'm coming around on Faker town - I remembered the Gamma interaction Aristeia highlighted a while back where Gamma seems legit piseed off at Pav in a way that's non-parrtnery, I still think skitter is town, I'm re-evaluating on Coral though I def need to read the last 20 pages, and I still think decent odds of scum in Cakez

I will finish reading up tomorrow and start responding to specific things

[GuiltyLion]

almost done reading up but feel an urge to comment on this

And where's the scum on the Beat wagon? Why is this being ignored?

I mean technically not every wagon needs a scum on it

But faker that would be a good thing to address actually

my thoughts here - I actually think an all-town Beat wagon is possible and would explain why D2 was so difficult. I really dislike Cakez trying to pull up "where's scum on Beat??" in his defense when he repeatedly scumread Beat on D1 (yet never voted it) and has not strongly scum hunted on the Beat wagon in my mind, like D2 he was voting Titus for a lot of it and then since mid-D2 all he's done is votepark marci and ignore the fact that the majority of the game is townreading her.

I was even getting an inkling of this possibility prior to Pav flip:

is there any sense in wondering whether Beat was an all town wagon or is that just absolute lunacy

[GuiltyLion]

Just cause like, there's no interactions, Pav barely acknowledges Cakez exists, and like, we have 5 clears or whatever now, Pav spends majority of focus talking to people who are now conf town

^^^^

this

again, Cakez doesn't mention or talk to Pav in any way until

sixty two pages

into the game

[GuiltyLion]

If meuh thinks its pav fruit coral
Why does she leave the 5 person pav wagon to either start or be the second vote on fruit

We know pav is scum
Ans fruit is town

This has not been adequately explained

Sure the progression tracks with her earlier stated reads
It still doesnt make sense as a thing to do at that point in the game

I agree that her vote on Pavowski is

very very good

it's actually the

THIRD TIME

she voted for Pavowski, she got zero traction the other two times.

This is the first time everyone in the game, Skitter, Me, Titus, Guiltylion hop on the train CHOO CHOO CHOO.

Cakes says he can vote there.

Pavo is literally inches from dying - so why would she change her mind on the wagon she actually wanted and

had good reason to want

when she's finally getting it?

If she has cold feet, then like who is giving her cold feet? She doesn't even

mention

Pavowski when she hops off - it's like oooh look over there a fruit!

I'll also chime in with where I'm at on this

you all seem to be saying "why would town unvote a leading wagon they scumread" and I agree that's bad townplay, for sure

but why would scum unvote there? It seems like you all are assuming that Meuh's unvote was intended to make an effort at saving Pav, but I don't think it does, especially if skitter is town then the engine of the Pav wagon is all town - and we see how it played out that Pav still got pushed through anyways. So all scum!Meuh has to gain from unviting is... bad optics? In my mind once scum decide to bus/wagon their buddy they usually stick to it and try to milk the towncred they want from it, they don't do some timid vote/unvote play because they're fully concerned with how it will look and point to them if their partner does get flipped. Especially in a set up like this where a buddy going down is tangibly quite bad for scum with 5 people cleared afterwards. if you're going to add fuel to that fire then you

have

to be getting something from it, and I don't think Meuh tried to.

so yeah I think Meuh unvoting is bad/hard to explain from town, but I think it's even harder to explain from scum, and I feel like skitt especially doesn't seem to be considering that angle

[GuiltyLion]

overall I think Faker makes a decently compelling case for scum!Coral - while I townread a lot of Coral's thought processes and ideas, it's not in an unfakeable tier of townplay, and if there's context and history where tw clashed with Aristeia in prior games I could maybe imagine him getting tilted and replacing out as scum, which was previously the foundation of my townread there.

however I think it's possible Faker could just be wrong and a Coral townflip feels like it would put us in a bad situation with a scum!Cakez escape, where as a hypothetical Cakez townflip doesn't feel as bad because whoever escapes in the remaining pool, whether Skitter or Meuh or Faker or whoever would give us a lot of hard information

and I still don't see a single compelling reason to TR Cakez or not flip him here

so that's where I'm at. I kinda feel skitter and Meuh are both town. I need to go dig through Coral's ISO and see where she is on Cakez, I haven't been zeroing in on associatives amongst the uncleared yet today

[GuiltyLion]

the fact that Coral hasn't voted at all today is bad

I get that people want the conftowns to lead but in my perfect world the conftowns would abstain from voting and the unclears would be voting first to demonstrate actual intent/commitment to their reads

[GuiltyLion]

I think where I am is that it's either Skitter/Cakez or Coral/Cakez, ultimately. I'd bet on Coral/Cakez before Skitter/Cakez but the Skitter/Cakez world scares me if we lim outside those two today

[GuiltyLion]

also Cakez's spree of posts from 4068 to 4076 just feels like caught scum panic to me

Faker is a very smart mafia player and obv way better at this game then I
The fact that they continue to make ridiculous logical errors over and over is convincing me they are scum

this post in particular feels like scum mindset in how he says Faker's logical errors "is convincing [him]" that Faker is scum

if he was actually being convinced he'd just assert that Faker is scum, rather than that his mindset is evolving to Faker-scum. instead this feels self-aware that he needs to emulate a thought process

[GuiltyLion]

Faker do you have a reason it's not Coral/Cakez

[GuiltyLion]

I mean, to try to avoid a pav flip, esp if other people (gamma) seemed to support voting tuf

but then why vote him repeatedly in the first place at all

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez are you trying to imply that you are one of the people actually doing things this game

[GuiltyLion]

idk this whole idea that scum!Meuh votes her partner Pav several times but then bails at the 11th hour in an effort to save him just feels kinda nonsensical to me

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE COUNT 2.7

[4]

The Ugly Fruit

: Meuh, Pavowski, Faker, marcistar

[3]

Pavowski

: skitter30, Titus, GuiltyLion

[2]

marcistar

: The Ugly Fruit, SirCakez

[1]

skitter30

: Isis

[1]

Faker

: Coral

[1]

Not voting

: Aristeia

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day two ends in (expired on 2022-06-21 19:53:27)

MOD NOTES

• please let me know if there are any errors, i do this by hand.

• skitter30 currently V/LA.

• have fun!

I guess to be fair there was a real point where TUF was leading but like

most of the players voting elsewhere had already said they didn't think TUF was scum IIRC