LOST (Game Over)

[Corwinoid]

Never actually got round to watching Lost when it came out.

Me neither - we should do a watch party where we livetweet our reactions in this thread

Spoiler:

Only half joking

Count me in.

[Corwinoid]

I have literally only ever seen one scene from Lost, and taken out of context it was hilarious.

[Corwinoid]

I'm sorry everyone, I've been our the last day and a half with some unexpected family issues, I'm catching up now.

[Corwinoid]

Yeah, I'm trying to re-engage, but I lost my place I'm back on page 10 for serious reading. Apologies everyone.

@JF, thanks, re space.

[Corwinoid]

I understand that not all 25 player slots can be treated equally 48 hours into the game.

Wow, I didn't realize we were only 48 hours in. It feels like it's been a lot longer than that for me.

And yeah, Bell, I fell asleep reading last night, sorry for being human.

[Corwinoid]

I'm still catching up today, on page 31. Can someone link to the KTANE game everyone keeps talking about?

I have my own reasons for not liking Frog's slot for where I'm at in the game.

Johnny, you had an earlier town read on Luke, do you still feel that way and why?

[Corwinoid]

Johnny, you had an earlier town read on Luke, do you still feel that way and why?

Yeah, they haven't done anything to disturb that halo on their head. You think I missed something?

Not necessarily. My notes are "Dislike Frog and Luke, feels like ~350ish is s/s [\n] JF TR Luke?" so I've just been meaning to ask about it. Something wasn't rubbing right around then, but I suspect a lot of you have a better feel for him as a player than I do.

[Corwinoid]

It doesn't help that every time I get a break between work and family I show up to 10 more pages.

I'm a little concerned about how little of BBT we're seeing in this game. Both of the other games I've played with him he was pretty active. Makes that slot hard to read.

I still have a gap between pages 30 and 50 to catch up on (which I'll try to get through in the next few hours), but I feel like Bell's been looking for easy wagons to start on LA/VLA players, going from me to Toog to CSF, and I'm not sure what after that

[Corwinoid]

You absolutely do not

I'd like you to give him one, yeah. I think whatever you used to have against read lists was borne of mostly stubbornness.

I absolutely hate read lists also, and stubbornly refuse to give them.

[Corwinoid]

Don't worry Rad, some day we'll grow up and have inside jokes of our own.

[Corwinoid]

Now my corvid.... Corwin, I'll defend your right to catch up to a point, and I don't care if you actually play Pooky's silly game. But like, you're demonstrating that you're not paying that much attention by using me as an excuse to cover for not providing reads. Provide them or not, but I cannot be your shield for the choices you make.

Check my history on that one if you want bro, I am staunchly against read lists and think they're easy ways to fake being involved without actually doing anything.

[Corwinoid]

With the exception of one comment I made to Penguin about peak bandwidth I'm not making inside jokes.

I can't this is my ongoing war on terror against VCAers.

VOTE: T-Bone

Why?
I like T-Bone.

Inside joke, I wouldn't worry about it at this stage.

I'm really disappointed in all the town reads on me. If you're trying to pocket me...just know that it's working and I hate it. Someone spice up my life with a scumread please.

Obviously lying scum. Got ya.

[Corwinoid]

I literally just happened to have that exact post up on my other screen when you said it... absolute serendipity.

[Corwinoid]

Luke... I am your father.

[Corwinoid]

It's

my

first chance to make it though. Still counts.

[Corwinoid]

Now my corvid.... Corwin, I'll defend your right to catch up to a point, and I don't care if you actually play Pooky's silly game. But like, you're demonstrating that you're not paying that much attention by using me as an excuse to cover for not providing reads. Provide them or not, but I cannot be your shield for the choices you make.

Check my history on that one if you want bro, I am staunchly against read lists and think they're easy ways to fake being involved without actually doing anything.

I'm just asking you for an ordered list of people, you don't even have to explain them

Of course such a list can be faked, but you have no other content to engage with

Right, because I have a third of the game I haven't read and probably half of the serious content based on the way people are posting here. And I literally started posting tonight with two slots that have my attention right now.

AND why in the world are you pressuring me to do something I think is a waste of time and easy to hide behind? And why are you saying I don't need to explain them then flipping around to "So we have content to engage with." You mean, so I can explain them?

[Corwinoid]

If y'all insist for the damn spreadsheet... (honest question, can you post a spreadsheet?)

Town:
Corwinoid
Rad
Cytosine and Guanine (Ircher and RH9)
--
JohnnyFarrar
T-Bone
--

Null

Dancing Puppets (Nancy Drew 39 and Titus)
Taly Toogeloo
PookyTheMagicalBear
MalcolmTucker
Off the Hook (Gamma Emerald and Marcistar)
Galron
Cephrir
Roden
Dwlee99
Klick
Dunnstral
Lukewarm
PenguinPower
Bellaphant

--
BlueBloodedToffee
The toad

Frogsterking
Enchant
Bell
--
Scum
Malakittens

Annoying me on a personal level for pushing me do this
Cat Scratch Fever humaneatingmonkey

[Corwinoid]

Null on CSF so far, honestly

[Corwinoid]

which line do I use to separate above null from null and null from below null? I'm only doing 3 colors.

BBT and down bad.

[Corwinoid]

@corwin whether you're for or against a read list personally, I think it just makes sense to submit one. It's what, 21 town to 5 scum? So scum have very little influence on this list. And it's a very open format where we can all discuss the reads.

It's a safe place where you can vote t-bone scum and it's ok.

Pedit yes there were go corwin good good but t-bone is a little high on that list let's correct that ok

But why? I'm not to the point where I know why you feel like this yet.

[Corwinoid]

@corwin whether you're for or against a read list personally, I think it just makes sense to submit one. It's what, 21 town to 5 scum? So scum have very little influence on this list. And it's a very open format where we can all discuss the reads.

It's a safe place where you can vote t-bone scum and it's ok.

Pedit yes there were go corwin good good but t-bone is a little high on that list let's correct that ok

But why? I'm not to the point where I know why you feel like this yet.

You'll get there.

When you do, on a more serious note, I'd like to know why you're reading bbt scum here.

List lacks nuance. I'm just concerned about how unusual his activity seems, and his "town as fuck" post. Those and the kind of milk & cookies come wagon with me posts really rub me the wrong way.

He was super active in our scum game though, so I'm hoping it's NAI and that everything's well with him, but it's strange.

[Corwinoid]

I haven't read Rad's scum game (congrats Rad), but that is 100% his town play and exactly why I'm town reading him.

[Corwinoid]

He did in my last game with him as town too. I still don't like it, and I reserve my right to view that slot askance for the time being.

[Corwinoid]

Also, honestly after playing a scum game with him it's hard not to just scum read him for anything and everything.

[Corwinoid]

Why town Gal? Why -null T-Bone?

[Corwinoid]

Also, I took the wrong meds at the wrong time earlier, and I might be a little loopy / LA this afternoon. Yay.

[Corwinoid]

Corwin, you're scum reading me?

Am I ever not? See the post about nuance. And.. yes... now that the BBT I know and love is here

[Corwinoid]

List lacks nuance. I'm just concerned about how unusual his activity seems, and his "town as fuck" post. Those and the kind of milk & cookies come wagon with me posts really rub me the wrong way.

He was super active in our scum game though, so I'm hoping it's NAI and that everything's well with him, but it's strange.

[Corwinoid]

Activity has been low because work. This game is going at a heavy pace and I knew I just wouldn't have the time to read it properly until the weekend. Given you have seen me play both alignments, I'm surprised you're using that as a reason to scum read me.

What is the wagon thing a reference too?

Also, during our scum game I had a 2 week break, hence the activity levels. In fact, if I remember right, my activity significantly slowed down towards the end of that game once I had gone back to work.

I do like your paranoia about not wanting to be fooled by scum!BBT though. You can be town for Today.

Wagon reference wasn't to anything in this game, just the general kind of lure I find scummy.

It's def. more paranoia than scum read, like how can I not after I got a peek behind the curtain and saw you both-ways everything? I'm actually a little surprised Rad doesn't feel that way too.

And uh, sorry about the town game. I read you wrong for the wrong reasons and was genuinely disappointed you flipped green and weren't in anymore.

[Corwinoid]

Taly is prob scum

Why? I want to know if your reasons' the same as mine.

[Corwinoid]

Quickly losing desire to vote, I actually asked

Galron

knowing you were probably around to see if you'd communicate directly.

The initial thought was that you were holding reads to stall in time to make them, because almost all of your posts up until recently have given little impression of your perspective on the game.

And yet you've posted a bit frequently and the tone and diction feels similar to what I've seen commonly with scum.

But given the past page, I'm going to think more on this.

Following people's reads are difficult, I don't remember what

Rad

thinks of you hahaha, 26p is a bigger bite to chew than I thought.

Justify your lowest reads, please :3

First part of this post is LAMIST - making it obvious that they were trying to 'sort me'

Stalling to make time for reads is also bad. As if I couldn't generate them on the spot if I really wanted to. Or even just disengage from the thread and come back another time given my activity levels thus far.

Tone and diction are buzzwords. This in no way clarifies WHY they think I'm scum. Poor generalisation.

The whole post is wishy-washy as well. Prob waiting to see where the tide flows on a potential BBT wagon.

Okay, I thought their entrance was weak and forced, the list in 1580 is exactly the kind of do-nothing-look-active list I hate, and some of their posts like 1719 feel like a weak attempt to pocket Bell.

[Corwinoid]

Oh god... we're all losing the pagetop game now that he's active.

[Corwinoid]

Frog, if not Ceph, then who?

I'm not sure yet. I'm mainly looking at low-mid activity posters who were townread for bad reasons as well as at the remaining lurker slots (Taly and Dwlee I think.)

I was negging Dwlee for it for a hot minute until I caught the sick/vla post, and his activity has ramped up as he's hopefully starting to feel better. I doubt this was strategic lurking.

[Corwinoid]

It concerns me, though, that Frog conveniently forgot about mala who's been both low activity and low content when she is posting. It annoyed the hell out of me that people were up my ass for dealing with life issues, when mala's getting a pass with posts like

why is there 31 pages

NoU

-.-

mew

Actually that he's looking at every *other* low activity player is bothersome.

[Corwinoid]

Not true, Luke and I both TR Mala slot. You can find the exact point I decided to rule out the Mala slot for D1 in my iso.

You want to help me out with that, because your mentions of mala in your iso go from "I have played scum with scum!Mala and town with scum!Mala and I admit their start seems a little different in this game." in 482, to town binning her for pooky's spreadsheet at 1260, to not mentioning her again a single time (at least by name) until just now.

[Corwinoid]

Aren't you the one who had me and frogster as S+S in your notes? What changed?

That was me. I'm feeling Frog even less; you've just kinda dropped off my radar right now.

[Corwinoid]

@Corwin

Not true, Luke and I both TR Mala slot. You can find the exact point I decided to rule out the Mala slot for D1 in my iso.

You want to help me out with that, because your mentions of mala in your iso go from "I have played scum with scum!Mala and town with scum!Mala and I admit their start seems a little different in this game." in 482, to town binning her for pooky's spreadsheet at 1260, to not mentioning her again a single time (at least by name) until just now.

This is possibly a contrived attempt at pretend-solving, I specifically decided to town bin Mala around the time I posted 482. That was my main motivation for sharing that comment in 482. Mala isn't mentioned again because I had no new takes on the slot. That's not difficult to understand. If you're town and this isn't pretend-solving, then stop shading my slot for no reason.

Holy shit dude, you made a read ~52 pages ago based on the start of the game, FoSed every other inactive player, and never looked twice at your very early read even given the "content" of her posts. And you don't think that's giving that slot a pass?

[Corwinoid]

@Corwin

Not true, Luke and I both TR Mala slot. You can find the exact point I decided to rule out the Mala slot for D1 in my iso.

You want to help me out with that, because your mentions of mala in your iso go from "I have played scum with scum!Mala and town with scum!Mala and I admit their start seems a little different in this game." in 482, to town binning her for pooky's spreadsheet at 1260, to not mentioning her again a single time (at least by name) until just now.

This is possibly a contrived attempt at pretend-solving, I specifically decided to town bin Mala around the time I posted 482. That was my main motivation for sharing that comment in 482. Mala isn't mentioned again because I had no new takes on the slot. That's not difficult to understand. If you're town and this isn't pretend-solving, then stop shading my slot for no reason.

Holy shit dude, you made a read ~52 pages ago based on the start of the game, FoSed every other inactive player, and never looked twice at your very early read even given the "content" of her posts. And you don't think that's giving that slot a pass?

What's the difference between townreading and giving a pass? And why does this bother you so much?

Reads change, he's showing no interest in re-evaluating her while mudslinging half a dozen other people for exactly the same things. Which suggest his motivations about one or the other aren't entirely honest.

[Corwinoid]

granted ill reeval if mala continues to do nothing but im way happier with her than other low content slots right now so i can certainly understand how frogsterking arrived at the same conclusion

I am... actually surprised how acceptable I find this.

[Corwinoid]

+1 with the exception if anyone here is a stats teacher. I've been persuaded once before using probability by a retired stats teacher.

I have a math degree. I hate explaining math to people. Unless it's incredibly relevant I'm keeping 'real' stats out of my entertainment life.

[Corwinoid]

I thought you were getting run up pretty flimsyily but I do not like this. The last time I saw this argument both players were scum lol. How strange.

Ewwww.

The last time I got wagoned I was town. So what?

Also not how stats works.

[Corwinoid]

T-bone's posting isn't making any sense for anyone paying attention.

Explain?

T-Bone tracks IMO, even if the conclusion is wrong.

[Corwinoid]

T-bone's posting isn't making any sense for anyone paying attention.

Explain?

T-Bone tracks IMO, even if the conclusion is wrong.

What do you read BBT as and why?

Nullish. I can see him doing everything he's done so far as scum or town, and deciding to do it for scum, town, or metablocking reasons.

I think he's barking up the wrong tree here, but I can't put a finger on why I town read you other than "vibe" either.

[Corwinoid]

My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility"

This is essentially true, for more reasons than stated. The real problem is the convolution of stats and probability; stating something has happened X% of the time (the statistic) doesn't inherently give it an X% probability of happening unless you're talking about independent

random

events. We're not talking about random events though, and the probability of it being S/S is dependent on the probability of those slots is scum in the first place. So the mistake being made is using a statistic to define a probability that it doesn't actually define.

I had something else to say after that, but got interrupted for inane BS and lost my train of thought.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway.

I actually don't like this either though. I haven't (and have no intention of) looked at statistics for how likely town is to hunt scum vs. random selection, but my gut intuition is that it would be better than random chance. If that's the case, the odds of town splitting and picking two scum wagons at the same time would probably be higher than expected, as unintuitive as that might seem.

[Corwinoid]

1918 and 1930 I appreciate, and I appreciate Cor going into the topic during your time off. My main takeaways are an increased skepticism on Puppets level of motivation to solve in this game, a slight town lean on the Cor slot, the danger of conflating probability with statistics (and I need to review the definition of random events), and the point how scum v scum wagons might be more common than I've been giving them credit for.

A couple examples that help: Assuming your skill doesn't change, your free throw % in basketball, statistically, approximates your expectation of making a free throw. Each event has a non changing P, and the history of it reflects that.

Conversely, if 10% of the people who take a test for thyroid cancer test positive, that doesn't mean you have a 10% chance of cancer if your doctor orders that test. It's more like 90% *because you are at the doctor with symptoms that make him think you might have thyroid cancer*. The intrinsic probability of the outcome has significantly changed based on additional information.

Drug tests are another common example, in Bayesian stats. If a test is 99% accurate, with a 1% false positive rate, if you randomly test 10,000 people, and 1% (100) of them use drugs, then you're going to get 99 accurate positives, and 100 false positives. Roughly speaking, it was right only 50% of the time, in a random sample. But if you target who you're testing for cause ("someone fell down and bumped their head at work"), the event is no longer random--a positive test here

is

99% likely to be correct (even so, in the real world positives are run multiple times).

The same goes here, if you look at it purely from the extrinsic probability of randomly picking a spot out of 13, or 25 you end up getting a different result than you do if you consider "A number of people consider that slot scummy for particular reasons" which drastically changes the intrinsic probability that slot actually is scummy--and in turn, whether such interactions are S/S.

[Corwinoid]

meta vca

math is trash

*looks at wall*
*agrees*

[Corwinoid]

Corwin, talk more about your read on me? In our newbie, you said you came into the game with a lean scum read on me before you replaced in.

Given that, why are you suddenly so paranoid about trying to read me?

I'm down for a Toad wagon as well. Haven't seen much from them in the 20 pages I've read but enough to vote.

Nobody interested in Penguin?

Bleh. You could have link our T/T game where I nuked you immediately because I was paranoid you were manipulating me so they've got context. I'd rather just forget that game happened.

@Raad https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=89555

I don't know why everyone thinks I'm paranoid of you here. I think you're hard to read, and you'll do a lot of scummy shit as town so you can get away with scummy shit as scum. As I said in one of my last posts, I'm pretty null on you... I'm pretty null on most people until there are elims and actual information unless there's a good reason not to be, then I'll go look at votes, interactions, associations. Right now you're just another player, who I'd rather not nuke D1 out of kindness and fun potential.

[Corwinoid]

T-bone's posting isn't making any sense for anyone paying attention.

Explain?

T-Bone tracks IMO, even if the conclusion is wrong.

What do you read BBT as and why?

Nullish. I can see him doing everything he's done so far as scum or town, and deciding to do it for scum, town, or metablocking reasons.

I think he's barking up the wrong tree here, but I can't put a finger on why I town read you other than "vibe" either.

I can quote me too.

[Corwinoid]

Right.

But you haven't answered my inital question of you reading me correctly in the Newbie and so why am I suddenly difficult to read?

Luck? You playing like ass early D1 in that game? Me being tired of getting burnt on crap reads that elim players I'd rather play with or lose games? Experience now knowing that you buddying/distancing people isn't as AI for you as I thought it was before I knew you?

I dunno man, I feel a lot less committal and eager in the space I'm in these days.

[Corwinoid]

GG everyone. Best Birb hard scum read me before I repped out, and I really want to know why. That's a hell of a read. So was Ceph's gladiate.

I wish I hadn't had to replace out, but life happened.