Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[GuiltyLion]

> Welcome to ScumDetector3000!

Input >

HELLO PERSONS. PLEASED TO MAKE YOUR. ACQUAINTENCE.
VOTE: GuiltyLion
THE USERNAME INDICATES GUILT.

> Scanning post for scumtells...
> Scanning...
> Scanning...

> 1 scumtell(s) found. UserNotAddressingMutualHistoryException. This user has played several games with GuiltyLion before, yet post voting them does not seem to acknowledge this. Check for reasons why user DonEmpire did not indicate familiarity with GuiltyLion nor greet him.

VOTE: DonEmpire

[GuiltyLion]

aw okay well if you ask so nicely

VOTE: aristeia

I am not sure how I feel about this vote switch, backing down immediately feels just a lil over conciliatory

[GuiltyLion]

idk what the optimal way to play it is but i just know that town!you would be thinking about it

wouldn't scum!Ari be thinking about how town!Ari would play and how town!Ari would think about it? I don't think this is a town indicative thing

[GuiltyLion]

idk what the optimal way to play it is but i just know that town!you would be thinking about it

wouldn't scum!Ari be thinking about how town!Ari would play and how town!Ari would think about it? I don't think this is a town indicative thing

shhhh im letting her pocket me

i think its slightly town indicative. i don't think that ari's main priority as scum is to match how she'd play as town, and i don't think most people would really would have that reaction or that she would expect them to. so if it was performative it was a very directed performance

hold up, I think I lost a bit of the thread of conversation here.

Ari said: "I think I know what alignment [Dann] is I will keep it in my pocket for later" (43)

you said: "unironically decided earlier that you were maf if within the first few pages you didn't talk about the value of keeping your reads secret for later in this setup

congrats on being town" (44)

I have a couple issues with this reasoning, the first being what I already said - thinking about "the value of keeping your reads secret" in the setup is not some particularly deep or townie thing, I think it's fairly likely scum!Ari would understand the value for town to keep reads secret just as much as town!AI.

The second is a basic misuse of logic here - even if we accept the premise that "

A)

if Ari doesn't talk about keeping reads secret,

B)

she is scum", just because Ari

did

talk about this doesn't make her town. You said if A->B, and then ~A, therefore ~B, that is not valid.

I know logical mistakes aren't exclusively scum behavior, but taken together both these two issues feel like a flimsy justification for a townread here, which prompted me to post 62, because 46 is doubling down on both these issues.

What I don't understand in your response is how you're talking about it being a "directed" performance. I get the idea that some scum players, and perhaps Ari don't necessarily try to play as they would as town, but framing it like "playing as you would as town" feels like a bit of a dodge away from my point - which is that "the value of keeping reads secret" is not really necessarily something I think only town!Ari would speak about. And I don't follow how you think her talking about it if she's scum would be specifically directed at you.

so yeah, I still don't like this read from you and it feels a bit fake to me, like you have the goal of TRing Ari and you're justifying it rather than organically arriving at it. At best, if you're town, this is not a good reason to think Ari is town. But at worst this kinda feels like a pocket/buddying attempt and I don't remember having issues with your reads & reasoning for them when we played together in KTaNE

[GuiltyLion]

ok I am feeling good about a Dann TR currently. I am not sure if I should be in the business of sharing every townread this game but I do like working with Dann so I'm gonna throw that one out there

I still kinda gut scumread everything fire is posting, I don't like that they unvoted Loki and didn't vote anywhere else.

I also don't like Rat describing my case as "nitpicking" in 175 - calling out the logical slip up is arguably a reach, like I understand that particular point is not necessarily AI, but the overall argument I was making was that I felt fire's TR on Ari was premeditated, which is definitely a cause for concern. Also, I want to clarify my understanding of that post in general - RR, are you using "human"/"AI" as stand-ins for "town"/"mafia", or are you just making a joke about the flavor and Bell's comment as opposed to making a read on me?

I feel like I know who Loki is and I have a lot of trouble with his playstyle because he can not fathom or accept any suspicion or scrutiny on him in any circumstances, but so far I am fine with shelving him as town for now and judging him based off his read accuracy when we get some flips - further if fire is scum then I def think Loki's spewed town by their interaction

Other thing I found odd:

the wagon is on a slot getting replaced, they are effectively dead votes

The slot's scummy actions are not undone, we should wait for a replacement though.

a) What are DonEmpire's scummy actions, in your own words?
b) Why are you not voting the slot if this is how you feel? Better yet, why are you not voting anybody?

[GuiltyLion]

the wagon is on a slot getting replaced, they are effectively dead votes

The slot's scummy actions are not undone, we should wait for a replacement though.

VOTE: Roden

I could sheep this

[GuiltyLion]

Why does scum!fire unvote me based on correctly guessing my main and it seems you have as well? Wouldn’t it make way more sense for scum!fire to keep pretending he has no idea who I am? Because there’s absolutely no way I would ever know the difference.

1. you're a tremendously difficult slot for scum to push if you're town, and 2. fire may have felt other players would figure out who you are and expect them to figure it out as well, which becomes suspicious if fire pretends not to

[GuiltyLion]

Loki how would you describe your scumgame? since you are a heavy meta player I'd like to understand what you think are the meta differences between your own town and scumplay

[GuiltyLion]

GL is right that i probably do also unvote there as scum, but idk if as scum i actually care to go back and check past games to get a baseline feel for how you play and in the process figure out who you are, since that was done with the intention of sorting whether your reaction was as scummy as it felt or typical for you (dann, here is an example of where doing that ended up being useful!)

if at all id probably do it before voting you in the first place to see if it would be dangerous to provoke you for a reaction in the way that i did (and i would have figured out that yes it would be)

fire do you want to join this Roden wagon

[GuiltyLion]

GL did you have any thoughts on my response to you? ik going back and forth in walls is not going to be useful, but like, any reaction at all?

I felt like the main thing you did in that reply is downplay the strength of your townread ("increases the probability of her being town", "this part is a guess"), which is fine, not really AI one way or the other IMO, either you're town and we miscommunicated or you're scum and you're shifting the argument/goalposts. by changing it to a probabilistic argument you're retconning your post a bit ("if ari doesn't talk about reads, she is

more likely to be scum

" is a different statement - that isn't what you said in 44) and I still think you're making a logic error - just because someone doesn't do a thing that you think would make them scum or more likely to be scum, does not mean they are less likely to be scum! but I didn't think replying with any of this would advance the conversation anymore and I'm more interested in what stances other people take on it at this point. You can probably guess from me not voting you that I'm still entertaining worlds where you're town

[GuiltyLion]

sorry EBWOP just to be clear, I said "if Ari doesn't talk about reads" when short handing your 44 but to be precise and accurate I should have said "if Ari doesn't talk about keeping reads secret**", which does change the meaning, and I knew what you said in 44 I was just lazy and hasty when calling back, but I don't mean to change or mischaracterize your claim

[GuiltyLion]

gonna wait for a VC but I'm on board with the Greeting wagon and will vote there provided I'm not hammering. I agree with what RR & furtive are picking up on and calling out. every Greeting read and justification feels fake to me, people have touched on it a few times but Greeting's justification for scumreading/voting RR is bad - it feels like Greeting thought they could push RR over the early game gimmick and is ignoring any/all reasons to consider the gimmick NAI. I don't know if I have the right words/energy to describe it in detail but the way they continue to justify it in 459 feels rote, everything is built on the assumption that only mafia would pretend to be a robot in order to hide their alignment and Greeting isn't showing any self-awareness or doubt about the key assumptions in there (namely 1. town wouldn't pretend to be a robot, 2. the purpose of the character was to hide uncomfortableness).

454 feels like an AtE survival post, also why does Greeting see themself as LHF, in my last game with them they were widely townread and NK'd because they weren't limmable.

Also, I didn't like this either:

I know that he tends to get eliminated Day 1 really often and he's limbait pretty much though. That's why I wanted to cut him some slack and give him a chance to prove himself and why I consciously decided to ignore his pre-existing 4 posts when I joined the game.

feels over-explainy and self-conscious over not commenting on Roden on entry.

Speaking of, I TR Roden, not at a bet-the-game-on-town tier but enough to not want to lim there today
UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

I like this post. Could see myself voting RR today.
I wonder if Kuti would agree.

why do you think that post comes from town and not scum?

and why did you bring up Kuti specifically?

[GuiltyLion]

actually I also just noticed that this:

I consciously decided to ignore his pre-existing 4 posts when I joined the game.

is dissonant from this:

I am not sure why Roden is a leading wagon considering he has barely said anything. If it's a pressure wagon then fine. But he hasn't said much.

if you consciously ignored his posts, why did you feel the need to say you're not sure why he's a wagon? like I get possibly wanting to cut Roden some early game slack and not join the wagon, but you actually defended him here moreso than just ignore the situation. and if you were truly like "I'm not going to try to read anything into his posts at all", then you definitely should not have been questioning a wagon on him

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Greeting

for some reason I thought there were like 5 voters

That depends, if someone is coming to discuss with an open mind then sure. But if someone has already pre-decided my alignment then no, there is nothing to discuss, and all that is left is to vote me out. I have played enough games to know that changing that person's mind is a waste of time.

Here, I can reach out. One of my biggest issues is that I really don't vibe with your reasoning on Rat at all - I think regardless of Rat's alignment, he as a person thought it would be fun to act as a computer for the beginning of the game. I've played with him a few times before, and I also still weirdly have a memory of reading this particular post in a very old game of his and finding it really funny. He has a sense of humor.

What I don't understand is why you seem particularly hung up on this idea that it can only be a front to mask awkwardness at the start of the game. Rat is an experienced player, I'm sure he has scumgames in the past where he didn't need to use such a front. It's just really easy for me to imagine a world where town!Rat opens the way he opened this game, it doesn't strike me as alignment indicative at all. but it feels like you're locked in on this reason you have and I don't feel you considering the alternative town!Rat world, which makes me think it's driven by agenda.

Can you recall and link me to any town games in your past where you locked on someone early game for a reason in a similar way (doesn't have to be specifically using a charade/front, could be any reason at all)? If you can show me a town game or two where you did a similar thing, push someone early for something I might find wholly NAI, it might help me see this as a playstyle issue rather than an alignment indicative one.

I also noticed Loki said you opened differently here than in past games, and I think one of Loki's strengths is accurately feeling out different meta vibes between games, so you could use this as a means of addressing that point against you as well. I felt your 402 was kinda snarky and dismissive - you didn't even ask what games he looked at

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Greeting

GL why are you town reading Roden?

they're not the greatest of reasons but two things:

1. I think the way he's fighting with Loki while kinda both scumreading/not scumreading her feels organic rather than fabricated
2. the furtive vote/push doesn't strike me as survivalist or agenda-motivated because furtive seems fairly townread and not likely to be limmed today

I could def still see it as scum attempting to just blanket discredit all the suspicion on them and throwing fake rage around (especially after Ari pointed out the rage/edge is a staple of his towngame), but yeah mainly it doesn't strike me as very calculated

[GuiltyLion]

Here, I can reach out. One of my biggest issues is that I really don't vibe with your reasoning on Rat at all - I think regardless of Rat's alignment, they as a person thought it would be fun to act as a computer for the beginning of the game. I've played with them a few times before, and I also still weirdly have a memory of reading this particular post in a very old game of theirs and finding it really funny. They have a sense of humor.

What I don't understand is why you seem particularly hung up on this idea that it can only be a front to mask awkwardness at the start of the game. Rat is an experienced player, I'm sure they have scumgames in the past where they didn't need to use such a front. It's just really easy for me to imagine a world where town!Rat opens the way they opened this game, it doesn't strike me as alignment indicative at all. but it feels like you're locked in on this reason you have and I don't feel you considering the alternative town!Rat world, which makes me think it's driven by agenda.

edited to use the correct pronouns. I apologize for my mistake RR, will be sure to get it right going forward

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

I wanna give Greeting at least a chance to respond and I also don't feel like I've seen enough from every slot to make good decisions when the second phase starts

[GuiltyLion]

I have. And then reminded myself that town almost never listens to the words of dead townies.

just on a tangent, I don't like when people say this as if it's a given thing... encourage and be the change you'd like to see in the world!! I try my best to make it a point to reread the entire game once I'm in mid/late game and making pivotal decisions. the reread is not always for the better, but it's wild how much more AI content you can find rereading early game once you know half the game's alignments

(it's why hyperpost meta is bad, it makes it a massive timesink and chore to reread a 300+ page game and no one wants to do that)

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Vivax

I'm not moving for the rest of the day, this needs to go.

can you give me like a brief summary of why Vivax is scum

I see you've been asserting that he's scummy, but I don't know if I know what your reasoning is for why he's mafia. 520 is probably the main point I see against him, why is that inconsistency more likely to come from scum? like why does scum!Vivax throw a vote while openly saying he didn't check if it was a hammer (and would scum!Vivax have checked to see if it was a hammer?), and then 180 immediately afterwards?

like yeah it's weird, hard to make sense of, but why is it scummy?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: KittyTacky

I like this wagon

getting some townvbes from Greeting's play today

[GuiltyLion]

Dann, did you have any thoughts on 492?

[GuiltyLion]

Everything he posts is designed to be distracting or confusing. I don't believe a single word that's come out of his mouth all game, and now he's sussing people for.... Believing mental illness claims?

but when you say "designed to be" distracting or confusing, isn't that assuming mal intent from the start? I also disagree that it's all entirely meant to be confusing, like a post like 592 is readable to me, even if I don't agree with his ideas or theories I feel like what he's saying is not hard to understand.

I dunno, he could be mafia, but I don't think I've seen anything in his posts/arguments that feels like it's alignment indicative moreso than personality/playstyle indicative. Are his town games super logical and clear?

[GuiltyLion]

Bell's simpler, if he's posting then he's town, if not then he's scum. I see this get said every game he's in and I haven't seen it proven wrong yet. His activity has been somewhere in the middle this game so far though, so he's just a town lean.

I would kinda expect Bell to post more than he has so far tbh

in Shakespeare he posted a lot as scum and won the game off it

[GuiltyLion]

If KittyTacky is scum here then I would suspect they are being actively sacrificed by scum.

I agree with the general idea implied here and in fire's recent posts that scum have a huge role in choosing today's elimination and so if we hit scum then likely there will be scum pushing it by design, but my vague game sense is that Vivax is a scum-chosen wagon moreso than Kitty, Kitty stalled out fairly quickly and to me it felt like Vivax has had more momentum throughout

I get the sense this was just a gamestate read but I'd be curious who think may be specifically scum sacrificing scum!Kitty in that world

[GuiltyLion]

I just... do poorly in mountainous games as I found out. It's slightly demoralizing having no play around PRs to find scum/town with.

what other mountainous games have you played

this feels like a wack excuse for not playing, like what do you do in non-mountainous games when you roll Vanilla Townie? Even if we had a ton of PRs, even if YOU were a PR, we'd still have no info for D1, how does that excuse detached D1 play?

[GuiltyLion]

Bell's simpler, if he's posting then he's town, if not then he's scum. I see this get said every game he's in and I haven't seen it proven wrong yet. His activity has been somewhere in the middle this game so far though, so he's just a town lean.

I would kinda expect Bell to post more than he has so far tbh

in Shakespeare he posted a lot as scum and won the game off it

You expect town Bell or scum Bell to post more? Mentioning how he posted a lot as scum in Shakespeare is confusing me here.

sorry that was unclear, I would expect town!Bell to post more. I don't think I've ever seen him get prodded as town

[GuiltyLion]

GL said one of the primary reasons he was town reading you had to do with your interactions with Loki and... It's clear you are familiar with Loki as a player and you handled Loki exactly how I would handle Loki as scum. That is, pretty much immediately come up with a justified town read on the slot after throwing some suspicion that way. I am not sure why GL thinks this is a point in your favor as #366 is the point when you really start playing the game and the very first thing you do is explain your town read on Loki, which is based on this justification about Loki avoiding looking like he's waffling as scum

which is fine! There's nothing inherently scummy about that read, but I don't ascribe it as towny. There's not a lot of progression here. It's a reaction test > immediately finding what you were looking for as towny. Things are rarely so simple when it comes to gathering reads and I'm not sure what GL sees here as towny.

I want to clarify, I didn't think that Roden took an angle as simple as "initial suspicion -> justified townread". It was the "I don't like what you're doing, but I kinda TR you" that I perceived as a mixed signals type of read, specifically 414, felt to me like he was still uncertain of Loki readwise

honestly though reading it back I'm less convinced of it because 517 does reaffirm that Loki is a solid townread

[GuiltyLion]

I haven't liked any of RR's justifications for pushing Vivax and kuti's hop on struck me as convenient as well (not necessarily scummy, I can imagine town!kuti voting there in that manner, but they're not a townread for me it's not hard to imagine it as a scum vote either)

it seems like RR specifically operates from "this is hard to understand and if he's scum then it's maliciously meant to confuse", which I don't find convincing or indicative of scumminess. RR didn't give an answer to my question of why scum!Vivax does the "didn't check if this was hammer". There's not really any reasoning for why scum!Vivax does this but not town!Vivax. There has been a claim that scum!Vivax played this same way and town!Vivax was more logical/easy to understand, which I haven't dug into myself yet, I'm only inclined to give it time of day because Loki has said that, but regardless I don't yet see any compelling reasoning based on this particular game that Vivax is playing in a way that he specifically would not do as town.

[GuiltyLion]

mmm

that post explains your thought process a bit more, but I'm just struggling to understand why scum!Vivax panics there. I usually assume scum are attempting to

not

panic in any circumstances, especially on D1 of a game where they have four teammates to help them out. I feel it's rare you see someone let the mask slip so quickly unless they're just bad at mafia.

And for scum!Vivax to panic, like you mentioned it pretty much only makes sense if Greeting is also scum and Vivax wants towncred for being a bus vote, right? If town!Greeting, why is scum!Vivax panicking? So already we have to assume scum!Greeting in order for scum!Vivax to really make sense.

My other thought is that there's a possible explanation or town!Vivax panic and vote - he might have seen a bunch of players coalescing on Greeting, thought "oh shit, what if I'm totally wrong and Greeting is scum, and I'm going to get pushed next after the flip?", and voted there. Again, not great play, definitely erratic, but to me that feels more likely than the same thought process coming from Vivax as scum - as I said, I tend to think scum are more likely to be overly cautious/calm rather than panicky, and then if nothing else the odds that Greeting/Vivax is S-S are low in a vacuum.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not sold on Vivax especially if Greeting is town, for reasons I've said

I could vote Bell if we're not doing KT, but I also still think KT is scum and kinda surprised people aren't jumping on him after he said he was demoralized because this is a mountainous setup, to me that just felt like such an awkward self defense

[GuiltyLion]

feels like the game is stalling at a time when we need to be consolidating

my top lim is KittyTacky, I would happily settle for Bell (I don't think his latest string of posts was all that townie either) or kuti, wouldn't be happy but at this point wouldn't throw a fit about Roden, Greeting, or Vivax elims - I do suspect there's potentially at least one maf in that pool though it wouldn't surprise me if any of them flipped town. Anyone else is prob a no-go for me, I could see worlds where I vote for Rat but doesn't feel like they have any real momentum currently

I think overall the town consensus (people who have votes) is a fairly good limpool, and I suspect the fact that several wagons have gotten to around 3-5 votes and then died means at least one is scum and scum are playing really tentatively around the deadline here. in general the common thread between KT, Bell, kuti is they all feel very reactive to being pressured rather than proactive about hunting scum, so like I say we pick one and yeet because we're out of time now for them to start really advancing the game of their own accord

Thinking more about Dann's point about Kitty being 'sacrificed', I don't know if I really think it's all that likely because I don't get the sense from the current gamestate that there's a particular wagon being pushed by scum with an agenda

[GuiltyLion]

also I'm really tired and can't remember who but someone made a point about "chaining miselims" earlier and it just occurred to me that's not really possible in this set up since scum pick the gladiate for future days and trying to carry out such an agenda would be fairly obvious? or at least a clear WIFOM situation if scum sets up a preflip and then they're Shiny New Top Scumread after the miselim winds up in the next day's Turing test. so I need to go back and find that post but maybe that's a townslip because scum would already be thinking about how they're going to play D2 and beyond to some degree

[GuiltyLion]

Fyi, since I think furtive is probably town here, this looks like a possible chaining of misalims to me. After I flip town, Vivax can then push furtive.

oh feh it was Loki and we all already decided he was town anyways

[GuiltyLion]

I've really been looking for potential scum theatre because I *really* think the go-to for a large scum team is to ham it up. But I might be lookin gfor stuff that's not there and the setup itself probably changes what my assumptions should be.

the set-up discourages D1 bussing via the free point for town if scum is limmed D1 though right? And then I have been thinking being "obv-town" doesn't really help scum all that much cause if you get put up for a test people are gonna wonder why mafia put "obvious town" in there. So I'm not sure strong distancing is actually super effective here, scum probably ideally want to have a couple members who are influential enough to each shape one of the Turing test days towards where they want it.

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmm yeah that was a terrifically awkward post and subsequent replace out lol. I'm similarly not confident it's a 100% slam dunk but it certainly feels harder to imagine coming from town

best case scenario is I am just wrong on Vivax and Greeting is also scum and the game is easy mode. I probably backed down on that Greeting SR too quickly

[GuiltyLion]

looking through Greeting's past posts in completed games with use of the word "bussing" (MS wouldn't let me just search "bus") to see if this has ever come up before, I found this post where Greeting responds to Dorsey (a town player) using "bussing" in a similar way, referring to a townie being voted by scum. So it's not entirely impossible that Greeting thought this was a correct use of the word.

I still don't really see any reason to TR KittyTacky here. He's only placed two votes on Greeting and on Vivax and for both of them he said he was "sheeping". As a baseline I think town would demonstrate more original ideas or scumreads.

[GuiltyLion]

i think scum is happy with these two being the wagons for elimination

mmmm

why do you think "happy" rather than "making do"?

who would you say has been most influential in creating this situation where we have dueling Vivax/KittyTacky wagons?

I don't take too much issue with your overall point that scum are probably divided across the two wagons but I feel like a lot of people are just assuming 5 scum means scum control D1 elimination and that's just not always the case, especially if town is bloc-cing mostly effectively

[GuiltyLion]

actually I guess I should make sure I'm reading your post right, do you mean "happy" as in "this is the desired outcome for them" or happy as in "fine enough currently to not fight against this"

I assumed the former but you might mean the latter

[GuiltyLion]

the wagon is on a slot getting replaced, they are effectively dead votes

The slot's scummy actions are not undone, we should wait for a replacement though.

What do people make of this?

I thought it was weird that KT replied to that post when they hadn't expressed a read on DonGreeting at the time, see 215. The reference to "scummy actions" especially, kinda felt like he was nudging along the general "DonEmpire=scummy" narrative without explicitly taking responsibility himself. It makes most sense to me if KT is S and DonGreetingVulture slot is T, though it could be S-S as well.

I think there is probably scum on KT wagon (regardless of KT alignment) but the people I think are best candidates for scum on it (namely Bell and posssssiiiibly one of Vulture/Vivax) look more like reluctant bussing votes rather than scum-pushing-for-a-miselim votes. I have opposite feelings about the Vivax wagon, it's not hard for me to imagine any of RR/kuti/KT/Roden votes there as scum hopping on a limbait townie

[GuiltyLion]

I'll have time to play tonight (about to get on a flight) but my gut reaction is Dann is mafia. Keep in mind mafia are trying to pick a test that's as favorable for them as possible, and also I really raised my eyes at that Dann post about Kitty being "sacrificed" by scum, felt like kinda muddying the wagon and agenda motivated. He also wasn't specific even after I prompted him on it.

But yeah will reread and discuss with yall cause kuti wasn't really inspiring either

[GuiltyLion]

I am also not sure that Dann could have had a ton of influence if he pushed a test that failed, that would def burn towncred, so he'd be good for like one or two points max? And then it'd be hard to throw him as a test subject after that?

Idk it's wifomy

[GuiltyLion]

tbh I've been surprised at how townread I've been this game, I don't think I've been Especially Townie

I'm rereading kutis ISO and it's pretty not-townie. I do think they vibe differently from the game I just played with them, Is This Thing Loaded.

I just have a hard time thinking this is the best possible match-up for a mafia team with mafia kuti

[GuiltyLion]

Roden, if you're town and Dann is never scum here, why do you think mafia put mafia!kuti against town!Dann instead of you

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno I need to sleep on it and really articulate it but I have this knawing fear that Dann is the deep wolf and furtive/Vivax/fire/Loki/Ari is basically the town bloc and Rat and Roden are trying to go for this "the simple explanation is correct kuti is kafia" tack with like NO apparent doubt that Dann might be scum, to try to get it back to even. Why would mafia be ok with risking going down 2-0, at that point town could fluke into a win on any of the last three tests it's such a dangerous position. If I were mafia and down 1-0 I'd be putting forward what I thought was one of our best chances to win a point

[GuiltyLion]

mafia* not kafia lol. Kafia makes me think of like a Boston based coffee mafia

[GuiltyLion]

Especially considering like if kuti was mafia and Dann is town kuti gained virtually no towncredit from the Kitty flip, if they had someone who bussed why not try to cash in on the fake dissasociatives you planted before you risk looking scummy and blowing it by pushing a miselim first

[GuiltyLion]

I guess Dann/Roden in that world would be some dedicated theater though, I have to reread that

[GuiltyLion]

Also if Dann is town and scum is fearkilling him for his reads it's low-key bad to confirm him and town and immortalize his accurate dying reads forever. If he's alive he might get paranoia suspected or start doubting himself, I agree Dann is a great player but no one is infallible

[GuiltyLion]

confirm him as* town

Sorry when I'm stoned and tired the grammatical mistakes come pouring out

[GuiltyLion]

Scum is most likely bussers on Kitty, sheeps or coasters on Kitty or other wagons.

We have 4 scum left, Kitty was likely bussed to give at least one if not more scum towncred.

I posted this earlier but to be explicit - why put up kuti if somebody got towncred.

I really don't feel it makes sense as scum to plan to go down 2-0

and then

try to use all your towncred. Towncred is short lived and coming back from 2-0 would be so much harder than a 1-1 tie.

[GuiltyLion]

And then if Dannflor flips green.... Not a great look.

if I'm deep wolf and my goal here is to get a point on behalf of mafia kuti, wouldn't it be easier for me to put kuti up against whoever is town in you, Roden, Vivax, etc? I guess one could argue getting Dann out *and* getting a point would be the best world for scum!GL, but I dunno it'd be a huge uphill battle

do you have any points for why kuti is scum based on their ISO/posts?

[GuiltyLion]

sorry I haven't done much yet, I'm visiting family this weekend so not online much, I've read along but haven't revisited a lot of D1 and frankly I am also kinda waiting to see what Ari thinks so far once she's able to dig back into the game

I think Loki has a good find on the perspective/TMI slip of it being "funnier" to vote Loki

[GuiltyLion]

sorry for the prod y'all, I prob should have just called V/LA for the whole weekend-trip-to-visit-your-family thing

I got back home last night and am back in my regular Seattle routine now, but that also unfortunately means I'm working today

I'll try to catch up on my lunch break, and def play some tonight

wrt to fire's reply to me about the "funnier" perspective/TMI idea - I guess I can see that if town!Dann doesn't know who Loki is and thinks it's just authentically newb-scum flailing, it might be funny in that world. my gut instinct was it's more likely to seem funny if you

know

Loki is town (rather than scum), but don't have the energy to dive deep in that idea and it might be more NAI overall than I had previously thought cause I do see fire's point

[GuiltyLion]

alright I am here and gonna do some rereading and then throw down a vote, my gut/heart are still pretty aligned on Dann but I'm gonna do some due diligence and also respond to stuff I haven't had time to look at deeply from D2. I just read fire's 1214 and it actually all pretty much aligns with my memory and take on things re: each of their ISOs, I just feel like I draw the opposite conclusion where I don't see what scum gains by throwing up one of their weakest members banking on WIFOM to save them when a 2-0 deficit is like,

really

bad.

I think if kuti is scum and they wanted to try to score a point off them there's a bunch of better options to go up against than Dann, unless exactly ALL of those better options (thinking like... Roden, Rat, Bell, Vulture, Vivax) are scum. but we know even at least 2 of that pool has to be town so yeah, I feel like "silencing/removing town!Dann" is just not enough of a benefit when contrasted with a much more even chance at a point. I'd maybe feel differently if the wagon comps were a bit different, but with Bell/Roden pushing kuti (and Rat too until they decided to switch), just also feels like it's mostly town casing/pushing Dann

anyway that's my preliminary take but I'll be here and reading for the next 30-40 minutes or so at least so holler if you're here

[GuiltyLion]

like i think its extremely predictable that at least 3/7 town would end up following that train of logic

I mean is it though?

let's say we're a mafia team with kuti, and we want a point (I know this assumption is not necessarily shared by you or everyone, but let's say for the sake of argument that mafia is trying to win a point here), you're telling me you believe scum are thinking, "hey, we'll have the

best possible chances of winning

against town!Dann" rather than literally anyone else?

I recognize every test is going to be WIFOM to some degree but if it's kuti vs Roden or kuti vs Vivax, that just feels far more likely that people will talk themselves into the other option rather than town deciding someone who wasn't really super heavily scrutinized or scumread much on D1 is actually more scummy than a slot that barely played D1

[GuiltyLion]

ig thats what i was really trying to get at with my thing earlier about mitigating losses. i just don't think it makes sense for scum to put up scum dann here on something that is mostly going to come down to which side of the wifom people land on. there's no reason to. they can keep dann in the game to be a reasonable town leader and just construct a different coinflip if thats the route they really want to take

I think this makes a bit more sense, but I guess I am assuming Dann is the strongest member of the team and who they saw as best chances of getting a point. I think if it's like Dann/Rat/Roden/Bell, there's not a lot of great coin flips that team is feeling good about

and yes I shouldn't assume I know the exact 4 person scum team, but just using that hypothetical team as a motivating example. I think maybe we're looking at this differently because I think if I were scum I'd be trying my hardest not to go down 2-0 because to me 2-0 feels like a death sentence

[GuiltyLion]

I guess I also just think, if Dann is scum, his ISO can only get worse, not better. I don't think scum!Dann in Turing Test 4 is more likely to win a point than Dann in Turing Test One. And the more he would use "town leader" influence to earn points via different tests, the more this effect holds

[GuiltyLion]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

scum wouldn't know how any of us were going to react though, you're using this argument as hindsight evidence that scum would not have when they were deciding on the test

[GuiltyLion]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

like we have in front of us some pretty convincing experimental evidence showing that there is in fact a very good chance of winning the point there

like, again, are you seriously telling me scum went "who is our best chance to win a point with kuti? Dann? Yup, gotta be, everyone will WIFOM and vote him"

that's not how wolves tend to think

[GuiltyLion]

yes, or at least that they think it was a good enough chance for it to be worth trying because the reward for pulling it off successfully is huge

? the reward is just a point, it's not that huge. the risk is way way bigger than the reward, that's kinda my main place I'm coming from

I could also ask, if the aim is to get town!Dann dead

and

win a point, why not put a stronger scum player up against him than kuti?

I really don't vibe with the idea that scum can & will bank things on town WIFOMing themselves. I think if anything town usually doesn't WIFOM themselves, most people tend to go for what looks "obvious" because you're gonna feel stupid if you try to galaxybrain and you're wrong.

[GuiltyLion]

I do generally understand your concerns, I guess if I'm making a mistake it's that I'm assuming that mafia are going to play safer instead of risky down when they're down 1-0, I may not be giving mafia enough credit myself

[GuiltyLion]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

ok putting it this way makes me question myself a lot more, I get what you're saying

but end of the day if we assume mafia is tapped into everyone's reads, they've basically set this up as

"do you want to lim a townie looking person or a scummy looking person?", instead of "townie looking vs townie looking" or "scummy looking vs scummy looking"

and you're saying they bet that the majority of us will pick the townie looking person
and I'm saying that feels like too much of a gamble when losing this test means they have to run the table to win

Are you in agreement with me that this is a gamble? or do you think this is actually the best possible percentage play for mafia (assuming you're right and kuti is scum)?

if you agree w/ me that it's a gamble, then I think we're just disagreeing on whether mafia is likely to gamble or not. but sometimes it kinda feels like you believe this is actually the best choice for scum because of the weaponized WIFOM, whereas like a S/S choice doesn't really have a lot of WIFOM by comparison

I'm kinda reflecting about how I play scum - I think I avoid intentionally leveraging WIFOM because to me that feels scary and unpredictable and it's safer to try to just remove objective threats to winning. and I'm always afraid if I try to make WIFOM arguments it's gonna look tremendously scummy. so maybe this disagreement is also a deeper indication of differences in how we think about playing scum

[GuiltyLion]

I think it's mostly clear but I wanna clarify all the phrasing/questions in my previous post about this being a 'gamble' is all under scum!kuti assumption. my prior argument and position was that in the scum!Dann world, it's not a gamble, it's the best-percentage play. which also gets at what I was saying with my last thought - prolly fire and I are to some degree disagreeing about what we think is the "best" play for scum here

[GuiltyLion]

hmm hmm hmm

sleeping on it and seeing fire's latest posts has lowered my confidence in voting Dann

however I still have a hangup in that let's say kuti is maf and Dann is town and scum wanted us to WIFOM ourselves into voting Dann

who is actually scum pushing us towards that, if anyone? it kinda feels like Bell/Rat are just sitting back and not really advocating for anything, so I could see them as kuti partners in a town!Dann world. Maybe one Vulture/Roden being the remaining scum? but Roden's D2 is a fairly audacious move if kuti is actually maf, especially if the plan is to actually sacrifice kuti and go down 2-0. It's a bit odd that Roden has decreased in presence as the day has gone on, kinda maybe feels like S-S with kuti where Roden wants to look good off their flip while not actually doing a

ton

to make it really happen

p-edit haven't read that post yet

[GuiltyLion]

hardbus Kuti d2

oops somehow I missed that Bell was voting kuti, I thought it was Vivax and Roden, not Vivax and Bell

[GuiltyLion]

Bell is virtually my most confident scumread lol, I almost have the same number of posts as him and I barely played last weekend, that is a huge problem

last time we played together when Bell was town and he was suspicious of me he was bragging about his ability to outpost me

so yeah Ari's point makes sense, I think I just wanna vote Dann here

also thinking about Roden saying Bell was town on D1 for posting a lot, @Roden are you still thinking that?

[GuiltyLion]

Apologies.

VOTE: Kutplz

Ultimately I’m incredibly conflicted on Dann, and I don’t want to embarrass myself by misreading him. Made town posts. Made scum posts. I don’t eee much like an agenda, even though his pushes felt agendey he *sort of* kept his way of treating people the same. It’s not great but he seems to have used his yardstick about the same for everyone based on how they played. It’s terrible because it feels less like a read than watching someone play off a policy. But at least he had a policy. Inconsistency isn’t a scum tell, nor is consistency.
I’m not satisfied, but life happens.

this also just strikes me as a tremendously awkward uncomfortable scummy vote

[GuiltyLion]

[yes baseball analogy I am a geek]

go Orioles

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Dannflor

let's do it. I think even in the worst case world where kuti was maf and we drank the wine, I feel fairly optimistic that the POE is pretty tight and accurate and it will still be an uphill battle for scum

[GuiltyLion]

So, let me know if you want me to hammer Dann?

wait until Datisi is about to go to bed

[GuiltyLion]

on D1 it was 6:22 PM EST, so probably around then

[GuiltyLion]

my first thought seeing this test is that Bell is (correctly scumread) scum and scumteam just wanted to get him out so he wouldn't have to keep masking associatives on future tests, and they want to also just remove furtive who was widely townread and not seemingly likely to be a viable miselim

I'm gonna try not to drink the wine this time, fire you were right and I felt like a bit of a fool seeing that Dann flip - my apologies to both you and Dann

I still scumread Rat/Roden otherwise. I shouldn't confbias but tbh I could see a kuti/Bell/Roden/Rat team making that Dann-kuti test and hoping we fuck it up, which we did. Rat kinda easily let me talk them onto Dann and I haven't checked this to confirm yet but it felt like Roden didn't vote kuti until Dann clearly had more momentum. If I'm wrong on one of them I could see a world with Vulture scum I guess, but less confident on a SR there.

that's my first take

[GuiltyLion]

I'd say right now I townread Dannflor, Loki, Fire and GuiltyLion.

Bell could go either way, I can definitely see them as scum but that doesn't fit their interactions with my other scumreads so could depend on flips.

RR hasn't done enough to be town but I find Greeting's push on them more sus than they are.

Aristeia could be town but I'm leaning towards mafia.

Greeting, Vivax, and Roden seem like mafia.

I don't have a read on

KittyTacky

or

kuti

plz yet.

do you all think scum worries at all about putting

two

teammates as null reads at the bottom of their post together?

[GuiltyLion]

Well, so far it seems like GL and Loki are leaning towards Dannflor, and Fire/Vivax/RR are leaning towards kuti plz.

Anyway, follow up to this is I'd know who I'd rather vote with, regardless of who we're actually voting.

I don't think reads in general matter as much for this game, and I'm realising my earlier comment about voting with townreads is probably not the right way to play. It doesn't matter who among the living is town as long as I vote correctly each day.

I also doubt scum!furtive fakes this progression - specifically, I don't see why furtive would decide he should go back on his reasoning here, since he still was going to wind up voting Dann

[GuiltyLion]

Especially considering like if kuti was mafia and Dann is town kuti gained virtually no towncredit from the Kitty flip, if they had someone who bussed why not try to cash in on the fake dissasociatives you planted before you risk looking scummy and blowing it by pushing a miselim first

This is a surprisingly persuasive argument. But I'm going to take my time an then probably just default to Kuti anyway.
But I can pretend, I can pretend to have really thought it through before fucking up.

In hindsight, I don't like this post from Bell

because he's signaling he's going to vote kuti, but calling that "fucking up" pushes the idea that kuti is town

[GuiltyLion]

I want to try to accomplish more today than just going "Welp, guess it's Bell," which is why I haven't voted yet, but without the ability to meaningfully vote anyone else, and with doing the usual reads/sorting being basically handing scum a guide on who has the best chance of winning the test.

also this is a mood

it feels like there's less to really discuss or do when the lim candidates can't speak for themselves

[GuiltyLion]

FGs read on Roden is very obviously faked

how? I see you quoting an early game scumread but a willingness to wait before voting there because it was <300 posts into the game. It's easy to imagine that coming from town. What makes you say it's "obviously faked"?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Bell

Vivax I do see what you're saying about how furtive flips from "happy to vote there" to "need to see more before considering voting" is odd, but IMO it's kinda odd as either alignment, like those posts were 2 hours apart I am not sure scum would be so careless? it's a good call out, I'll think about it

that said, I also think if we're just assuming scum!Roden, Bell's behavior is fairly partner-y as well. He basically doubtcasts the Roden wagon while avoiding giving a real read there (340, 345, 348), then pushes Kitty instead. It's not hard to imagine that as scum trying to protect a buddy before bussing another one (perhaps intending to use towncred from the bus to continue to shield the other). Didn't comment on him at all D2 as far as I can tell

[GuiltyLion]

which games did you read?

[GuiltyLion]

mmm I'm gonna need to think on this one

Roden gave that bad Bell townread (647) but that's about the only thing I currently remember from his ISO off the top of my head that might be significant - I will need to reread the whole Don/Greeting/Vulture combined ISO as well

Rat who do you think is scum that's not in the test right now?

[GuiltyLion]

I still scumread Rat/Roden otherwise. I shouldn't confbias but tbh I could see a kuti/Bell/Roden/Rat team making that Dann-kuti test and hoping we fuck it up, which we did. Rat kinda easily let me talk them onto Dann and I haven't checked this to confirm yet but it felt like Roden didn't vote kuti until Dann clearly had more momentum. If I'm wrong on one of them I could see a world with Vulture scum I guess, but less confident on a SR there.

Rat also didn't quote this post from me

I am not sure whether scum or town is more likely to miss this though - I almost think if town they're more likely to forget my reads than scum who would (presumably) be looking over all of town's reads to try to figure out the best possible tests remaining

[GuiltyLion]

also I started re-ISOing Greeting and I'm remembering how much I didn't like their initial play and reads lol

the tunnel on Rat was just so contrived, I could see it as either distancing or pushing a miselim but maaaan I did not like that read justification

[GuiltyLion]

Greeting also has really superficial interactions with kuti/Bell, talks to each of them about past experience/games but really doesn't do much by way of pressuring, sorting, giving-a-read-on, etc

[GuiltyLion]

I honestly think

furtiveglance

reacted the way he did in 570, 581 and 654, because he is scum. A real townie has

no reason

to be annoyed about what happened. The most logical thing to do for a town-aligned player is to accept it and look elsewhere. And that's what almost everyone did. Or, if one still thinks that I'm scum, look into my ISO and build a better, more convincing case.

Furtiveglance

did not want to let it go.

This is my best read for Day 1. It's unfortunate that it surfaced like this and I honestly feel bad that it surfaced this way, but it looks like hard proof to me. I feel like if I choose any other player or build any other case it will still be a second-best choice.

at the time I thought this was a fairly townie read to have

both having the general thought of "scum would be annoyed that I towntold" and the depiction of feeling guilty that they believe they caught scum this way, it felt real to me

my one hang up now is that I realized in 589 Greeting had previously said they "understand why furtive is annoyed with this", which seems fairly massively contradictory to the post quoted above

I'm not sure if I'm reaching to find more reasons to SR Greeting or if this is actually an indicative point

[GuiltyLion]

to be specific:

I understand why furtiveglance is annoyed with this

. I actually had to sub out of a game in here in the past, because I didn't accept mental health as a valid excuse and unknowingly offended other players.

Oh, and of course I made a fuss about it

.

A real townie has no reason to be annoyed about what happened

.

is this contradiction possible from town? the more I look at it the more I think this is the kind of 180 that only comes from scum. I don't see how both posts can be genuine simultaneously

[GuiltyLion]

actually I guess Greeting was voting/SRing furtive when they posted 589, so in that sense

maybe

they meant "understand" as in "I understand why scum is annoyed with this", but I'd want to check to see whatever past game Greeting is referencing whether they were town or scum. And the overall post doesn't read like Greeting thinks furtive is scum, so that wouldn't really make sense in general, and then why would they only start ramping up the intensity of the conclusion later if they thought they caught scum from the get-go?

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmmm

I see what you're saying, but my heart says it could still be attempts at distancing. It's a decent point though about Greeting mistaking Bell addressing them when he's not - part of me wants to say that could be reflective of self-conscious scum with a paranoid mindset, but it is odd that scum would react to their own buddy that way.

What do you make of my point in 1494? I'm going to have a hard time looking past that

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think 1494 is definitive either way - contradictions are not solid evidence of alignment imo.

but how does town!Greeting evolve from "I understand why furtive is annoyed" to "There's no reason for town to be annoyed"? If they did understand it in the first place, they'd understand why town might act that way. To me it seems like one of those statements has to be a lie. the best case I can make for a town explanation is that Greeting was exaggerating in the second post to try to sell a case, but even that still seems fundamentally disingenuous

[GuiltyLion]

wait hold up, I think Greeting is just replying to that last bit in Bell's post, about their reads list being "kill all lurkers". I don't think Greeting was actually responding to the first bit about alts. So that should resolve Rat's point/concern

[GuiltyLion]

I think I've been convinced to vote Vulture based on my points about Greeting + the gamestate arguments Ari is making

I'll do a reread of Roden ISO soon before voting but yeah I think that VC we've been riffing on is actually quite town-indicative for Roden

[GuiltyLion]

vote count 1.10

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-08-11 09:45:00).

yeet

Vivax [5]:

Loki Dokie, Radical Rat, furtiveglance, kutiplz, KittyTacky

KittyTacky [3]:

Bell, Aristeia, GuiltyLion

furtiveglance [2]:

Roden, Greeting

Bell [2]:

Dannflor, fireisredsir

Radical Rat [1]:

Vivax

not voting [0]:

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

Wrong VC to ask about, this is the more relevant one
Then Roden put me at L-1
1-2 scum didn't hammer me

Ari already made this point, but let's say Roden is scum putting you on L-1 with kuti, KT also voting you. If Bell is scum, the hammer is available. Why wouldn't Bell hammer if the Scum Master Plan is to lim you over KT?

Ari (712), myself (768, 773, 778), and Dann (201, 566) had already expressed that we thought you were either townie or at least not as scummy as KT

fire also said he was townreading you (763)

so that's at least 3, if not 4, townies openly pushing back against your wagon and voting elsewhere at the time Roden put you at L-1. Who does he think is going to hammer, and if he's scum and scum want to eliminate you, why didn't Bell hammer?

[GuiltyLion]

also considering Roden was a fairly scumread non-presence who had to be aware (if he is scum) that his E-1 vote would be looked at with suspicion and possibly make your wagon look even less appealing to the townies off of it. We see this play out almost immediately when Dann votes KT (833) shortly after. And at that point it's obvious you are going to vote your counterwagon instead of yourself. If I'm scum!Bell, after Roden's vote I'm trying to either set myself up to maybe hammer, or push back against Roden for more Distancing^TM to look good on future days, but instead he just empty posts (823, 824) and disappears for the rest of the day. Doesn't seem like there's any team coordination happening there.

so yeah, I don't think that E-1 makes a lot of sense from a scum!Roden world

[GuiltyLion]

I got my timing slightly off, Roden actually votes you juuust after those Bell nothiinigposts, but that doesn't really change my main point I think, which is that Bell/Roden do not look at all like they're playing to accomplish an objective together during that period of time (objective being either lim Vivax over Kitty, or effectively distance to give one of the slots towncred)

[GuiltyLion]

I actually changed my mind and decided that I don't feel like voting

Vivax

today. I feel like he would have a lot more to gain keeping his vote on me and bussing me, rather than hesitating. Still, if he's town, I am worried about a scenario in which he is pitted against a deepwolf and loses. And, to be fair, his interaction with me feels genuine.

meanwhile, let's look at this post under a hypothetical scum!Greeting lens. Feels pretty plausibly scummy to me - there's the obvious potential straight up slip by saying you should have "bussed" them, and then there's the white knightiness of it, I can easily imagine this as a post designed to try to give Greeting some town credit if your wagon goes through, and to fake being concerned about future tests. There may be a dimension of self-consciousness involved in Greeting is not sure exactly how townie you would appear to an uninformed perspective when several scum (KT, kuti, Rat?) are already voting you and several townies defending you

[GuiltyLion]

I just have a hard time reading their posts and seeing them as being informed here.

Which particular posts strike you as uninformed

[GuiltyLion]

what

there are a couple lines from greeting in other posts that feel genuine but this is one of the least genuine sounding posts ive ever read

why would he call himself LHF

why does he think that mafia is the one leading this push on him but he has no interest in arguing with them or engaging with the wagon on him at all or sorting out who is mafia on it

lmao fire I apologize again for ever scumreading and disagreeing with you this game

for me the thing that feels fakest is the over-the-top nature of that post. "utterly horrible", "bet my ass", "not gonna waste my time arguing with this shit push", the bravado level is off the charts.

And I called this out earlier but Greeting was like,

universally

townread the last time I played with them, so the LHF bit struck me as especially odd.

[GuiltyLion]

And then the inconsistency re: furtive that's been brought up as a point against him... Does that make sense if Greeting is actually trying to mislim furtive? Why wouldn't he just take that stance from the start?

on this - my thinking is 589 was made at a time when Greeting was trying to be super conciliatory after a string of negative reactions to their last posts/presence in the thread, and come across as reasonable and accommodating to improve their general standing. But then by 733 he knows he needs to make a real push/scumread, and so he draws on an argument he came up with that he thinks sounds good.

I agree taking that stance from the start would be

better

scum play, but I don't think the lack of taking that stance from the start can't come from scum who's making an error. The whole idea of the argument is that Greeting was being sloppy with his trajectories, so saying "shouldn't he have been more consistent?" doesn't really refute that IMO. I don't consider this mistake so egregious it would never come from scum, it was only toDay when rereading his ISO that I noticed it at all.

[GuiltyLion]

and again I'd pose the question back to you, how does town go from "I understand why furtive has this attitude, I've done that as town before" to "There is no real reason for town to act like this"? Like I just can't square that as a genuine, organic progression

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Roden

I think KittyTacky is a better vote tbh Bell

VOTE: Kitty

What caused this switch?

VOTE: Roden

I think KittyTacky is a better vote tbh Bell

VOTE: Kitty

What caused this switch?

Also what caused you to join the first Done/Greeting wagon but avoid the second one?

finally re-reading Roden in ISO

I like these questions a lot. The first one I feel is less likely to come from scum because it's not effective at defending Kitty (esp if scum!Roden knows Ari is town and can dunk on caught scum), and all it's going to do is serve to make Ari look less aligned with KT if she answers it. It really only makes sense to me as scum-agenda if Ari is also scum, and I think Ari's just town here, so it's not a beneficial question for scum to ask.

The second question also looks a lot more like genuine scum hunting. If Roden is scum, then Don/Greeting is a miselim, so again all this would do is make Ari look townier if she answers it, I don't think that question is likely to make Ari suddenly rejoin a miselim wagon.

[GuiltyLion]

there's otherwise not a lot that I really townread there, but not a lot that I really scumread either

paranoid/self-doubt part of me is worried it's giving me shades of kuti again, but I also vibe with the point someone (I think fire?) made a day or two ago about how general consensus seems to be on Vulture rather than Roden so there must be at least some town out there thinking the way I am. And I still don't really like everything in Greeting's ISO. I'll ISO Vulture again before really throwing down a vote.

I think Rat is the remaining scum currently, all of their arguments are generally technically sound but they lack a feeling of conviction or open-mindedness to alternatives that makes them ring hollow/scummy to me. And there doesn't seem to be like... a

ton

of feeling on their end to find the last scum in the remaining alive players or convince the rest of us that they're town? Which is kinda sus cause if I were town in their shoes I'd be desperately worried about getting it wrong and being the fall person tomorrow, but there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of concern about that

[GuiltyLion]

the fact that Roden didn't really participate in the last test at all, and didn't indicate which way he'd prefer... is that really scum trying to win, especially one that knows Bell is probably going down? like if Roden is scum, the strategy is to say absolutely nothing and hope you can win a point the next day off sheer WIFOM?

[GuiltyLion]

Not to Townslip teehee omg but I just realized that the people who we're voting on aren't actually here anymore and I thought they were like. Just not posting lmfao.

That being said I thought Dann was like, also able to show up and /talk/ lol but knowing that he can't... actually probably doesn't change that much but will factor it in.

do we think this is fake

I don't currently feel decided about it either way, could be genuine, could be fake, but if Roden is mafia and Vulture town this is probably the thing I'd kick myself for not considering more seriously

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Vulture

[GuiltyLion]

what's good my fellow Confirmed Townies of the Town

so I want to reread and take my time with this

just at a high level, my feeling is both the times I picked the more town-looking player playing the more 'competent' scumgame as scum it was wrong (Dann, Vulture), so the 101 take would be not to make that mistake again and go for Rat here

but there were a few bits of Rats play yesterday that felt kinda townie to me if Roden was scum? like a lot of my feeling on them was they were trying to defend Greeting/Vulture and push Roden for somewhat contrived reasons, yet turns out they were right

also the other doubt I have is - are we really in a do-or-die 2-2 situation if no one on the scumteam was playing a strong manipulative game and all were widely suspected? Is that just inherent to the setup, or does it make more sense if Ari is behind the scenes doing juuuust enough to steer things away from complete disaster for scum?

anyways I want to sit on this but glad I have you all to work through it with. fire what makes you say Ari is obviously unaligned with Roden?

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm y'all are making nice and convincing arguments and making me not wanna reread

I'll try to do it tomorrow but yeah I am finding fire's reasoning convincing enough to quell paranoia

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, will get to this today!

[GuiltyLion]

I'm here and rereading the game

[GuiltyLion]

Everything he posts is designed to be distracting or confusing. I don't believe a single word that's come out of his mouth all game, and now he's sussing people for.... Believing mental illness claims?

I also do not believe he wins a 1v1 against anyone, and I think scum knows this too, so they won't test him. Making today our one and only opportunity to get rid of him.

this post is breaking my brain a bit

let's say Rat is scum - they probably know that all scum may have to get tested unless scum win a blowout?

why do they suggest scum!Vivax might never be tested? like it feels like a sloppy argument that's more likely to come from town, unless they're just so deep in the "push Vivax" agenda that they're not thinking through their points?

I guess there's a possibility of aiming to foster paranoia about Vivax through all future tests, but... eh

[GuiltyLion]

and the thing with Ari is their early game is just so accurate, all suspicion on scum, no real misfires of note or significance

if she's town it's an absolutely impeccable D1 from her, alllmost unbelievably so. if it were a lesser player I'd say informed, but, on the other hand there were a lot of scum being pretty scummy D1

[GuiltyLion]

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

KittyTacky [7]:

Bell

, Aristeia, GuiltyLion,

Dannflor

, Vulture, Vivax, fireisredsir

[HAMMER]

Vivax [5]:

Radical Rat,

furtiveglance

,

kutiplz, KittyTacky

, Roden

not voting [1]:

Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ i was literally about to sleep, why do you do this to me

I think specifically because of the mech, it’s extremely unlikely that 4/5 scum were on Vivax and only one bussed.

agree with this

I don't think it makes sense for the scum team to bus KT and have a massive bloc of votes on vivax because bus credit for bell is somewhat useless.[sorry bell]

So I think perhaps maybe the strongest argument for Ari!town could be this one? Scum!Ari would obviously know that RR would be confitown by this, so it makes absolutely no conceivably sense for her to make this post and drag town!RR into the pit with her.

For Ari to be scum here, she would have to be playing some extremely highly evolved element of 3D chess here and I can’t count on one hand how many times, I’ve ever seen scum do this. I think Ari’s just town here.

In a game where scum can lose with 1-2 of their buddies alive, it makes absolutely no sense to put a scum wincon at risk by seeking towncred d1. Like I said, scum!Ari could still look good vetoing Vivax and hardpushing Vulture, because she would look both unaligned and deprive town of that critical one point but her scumgame doesn’t even remotely resemble her play in PYP, where as this one totally does.

RR’s progression on Vulture really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense but it does if you factor in the they knew that as a result of Roden being paired with Vulture, they were now everyone’s most agreed upon sr.

I actually had this same thought seeing that Ari post and it helps even more seeing someone else feeling the same

Ari's D1 was incredibly accurate and she got less accurate as the game went on. I tend to find that townie rather than scummy, even though Ari misvoted a couple times, she doesn't really look all that calculated when doing it. whereas Rat is the opposite, consistently correct reads but feeling calculated in doing so

[GuiltyLion]

I also think, maybe this is my ego, but kuti/dann still kinda strikes me as a desperation Hail Mary WIFOM play

if Ari is scum I feel the first test can be much different and much more designed around setting Ari up to win

instead Ari just decides to risk that towncred on hardpushing Dann

why

whereas a team of kuti/rat/roden/bell is probably pretty demoralized after D1 and is more in fuck it what do we have to lose mode

[GuiltyLion]

I reread the whole game trying to consider the best case for town Rat, and there's individual posts that feel townie, but holistically it just doesn't hold up for me and I think Rat is good enough at scum to be able to successfully draw from the well of

sounding town

every now and then

[GuiltyLion]

and Rat's D1 Vivax push was just so bad to me

the whole angle on saying Vivax panicked when greeting was suspected, not seeming to consider at all how many assumptions that required, or Vivax "I didn't check if this was hammer" which actually felt super town to me lol

[GuiltyLion]

yeh I agree with you fire, not sure if you got to the rest of my posts yet or not haha

I'm ready to vote Rat and end it but just wanted to see if anyone had any other last thoughts on what I said

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Radical Rat

fingers crossed

if this is wrong big apologies to Dann, Vulture, and Rat

[GuiltyLion]

WOWOWOWOWOW

ughhhhh

well played scum. I think as town we blew it on the Vulture lim

been a while since I had a bad loss like this, it stings

[GuiltyLion]

also thanks for hosting Datisi! I actually had a lot of fun with the setup, I'm gonna go offline to work for a bit but I'll give some more thoughts on how it played in a bit