TFT uPick [Game over!]

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Vivax

Not an RVS, this slot is scum for posting a reads list on page 3.

Also, I will be posting my survey start this game. Please participate.

[Frogsterking]

At my favorite park ofc &

Which one?

[Frogsterking]

nice avatar Frogsterking

Sara townlocked

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Vivax

Not an RVS, this slot is scum for posting a reads list on page 3.

Also, I will be posting my survey start this game. Please participate.

Question for you. The last time you did this survey in a game you were scum. Do you do it in town games as well?

No, I only do the survey start when I'm scum. Please continue to standby for my survey start.

Mala is obvtown by the way and I suspect anyone attempting to discredit them (mastina.)

[Frogsterking]

I see that mastina has a high verbal working memory so I can't give them the whole benefit of the doubt as I suspect their argument here is easily improvised.

PEdit:

@Toogle

That's a bad read on Vivax, Toogleoo, throwing reads around like they think Town does is a bad look and Vivax should remain at the bottom of the PoE.

Allegedly you have some ability to read mastina so I'm curious if you've seen anything yet that indicates..anything.

[Frogsterking]

I see that mastina has a high verbal working memory so I can't give them the whole benefit of the doubt as I suspect their argument here is easily improvised.

For example: your argument sounds good, mastina, until you take into account that you neglected any mention of mala's scum game in your analysis.

[Frogsterking]

I see that mastina has a high verbal working memory so I can't give them the whole benefit of the doubt as I suspect their argument here is easily improvised.

PEdit:

@Toogle

That's a bad read on Vivax, Toogleoo, throwing reads around like they think Town does is a bad look and Vivax should remain at the bottom of the PoE.

Allegedly you have some ability to read mastina so I'm curious if you've seen anything yet that indicates..anything.

>:/

What about you, Gamma? Have you seen anything from mastina to indicate anything?

Of course, if mastina is town and I'm scum, I could just say, "Oh, mastina is town, look how good I read her!"

Noted.

@both of you

My instinct is to townread mastina for their willingness to engage with me over their Mala read. Is that take inadvisable?

[Frogsterking]

I’ll be forward with this ig, I half-expect mastina to be able to read me kinda well

I'm sensing some uncertainty here

[Frogsterking]

No problem! My partner, Captain Hindsight, will stop by later to answer any questions you might have.

[Frogsterking]

What the ****

[Frogsterking]

HEAL: Best Friends

Because it might activate a Town Friendly Neighbor which is a powerful role.

[Frogsterking]

185 seems pro Town to me.

It is not that I couldn't back this up, for were I to put the effort in, I could; it is that I saw no reason to put time into it because I have better uses of my time than proving what is already EVIDENT to me.

Finding scum is only half the battle, you need to convince others as well.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah I'll townlean Gamma here.

[Frogsterking]

Rate each descriptive statement on how well it describes you using the Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree).

"Get angry easily" =

"Take charge" =

"Make people feel welcome" =

"Like music" =

"Like to tidy up" =

"Like to visit new places" =

"Feel comfortable around people" =

"Interested in many things" =

"Love order and regularity" =

"Am afraid to draw attention to myself" =

"Enjoy being part of a large crowd" =

"Cheer people up" =

"Lose my temper" =

"Enjoy the beauty of nature" =

"Enjoy thinking about things" =

"Cheat to get ahead" =

"Feel desperate" =

"Rarely overindulge" =

"Easily resist temptations" =

"Have a high opinion of myself" =

"Waste my time" =

"Need a push to get started" =

"Have little to contribute" =

"Keep my cool" =

"Avoid crowds" =

"Turn my back on others" =

[Frogsterking]

I'm feeling the absence of genuine Town Hunters in this game. I could use more Town reads from the following players I town lean.


Town leans:
Fred, Dunn, Mala, Gamma, Toogle, Meerkat,

Null/scum: rest

[Frogsterking]

Enchant and Yume can you fill out my survey?

"Cheer people up" = -

Was there a number you meant to put here, Fred?

[Frogsterking]

@Enchant

I understand you have your principles, I think it would be fun to see how you describe yourself though?

@Meerkat

I had this brief interaction with Toogleoo I'm Town leaning them for. I'm thinking each of these posts is slightly more likely to come from Town.

Allegedly you have some ability to read mastina so I'm curious if you've seen anything yet that indicates..anything.

I'm currently awaiting more information. The current posting style is masking some aspects of how I read mastina difficult, but I doubt this is a post restriction though. She's just being memey and loud and posting reads lists if you strip away all the CAPS stuff though, so really, not much different than what I'd expect from early game mastina. I want to see what happens in a couple days though, whether she leads pushes, who she's pushing, whether she disappears for days at a time, etc...

Of course, if mastina is town and I'm scum, I could just say, "Oh, mastina is town, look how good I read her!"

You can townread them if you want, lol. I'd assume your reads are capable of being fluid and able to change as you get new information >.>

[Frogsterking]

There is a separate scoring script I need to run on everyone's answers which gives the actual results, I'm just eyeballing stuff right now.


The main thing which stands out is that Sara's responses indicate town!Sara makes a lot more sense than scum!Sara, in a way I don't think is easily fakeable (or super difficult to fake.) I'm making a semi-educated guess that the things you've noticed are NAI for Sara, Meerkat, and that she can be Townleaned for her efforts.

@Mastina

Explain your Sara Townread please?

@Titus

Do you have any Town reads? I'd appreciate if you took the survey as well BTW due to curiosity.

@Sara

Townreads?

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: mastina

[Frogsterking]

@Enchant, thank you!

the things you've noticed are NAI for Sara, Meerkat, and that she can be Townleaned for her efforts.

Efforts?

I mean.. I'll double down on the part about her ISO being NAI based on her temperament. Maybe the town lean is too much.

I'll drop Toogleoo to a null, move mastina up to null, and move Meerkat to a legit Townread for the critical thinking.

VOTE: Vivax

This is my only scum read.

[Frogsterking]

Occam's Razor suggests that mastina is Town who tone reads me as scum and is unwilling to let it go.

PEdit:

Gamma was in a Town game I used the survey in like a year ago (Gamma was scum.) It's pretty NAI. I was being sarcastic.

[Frogsterking]

Oh yeah I forgot: town reads, Mala?

[Frogsterking]

SirCakez why post 255 if you're Town?

Not doing that bs survey

This is also suspicious.

[Frogsterking]

You have a very limited time to calm me down before I start screaming for your head SirCakez.

I learned from Vivax themselves to target the low-activity scummers before the high-activity scummers. And you SirCakez appear to be a low-activity scummer in contrast to Vivax who is a high-activity scummer.

[Frogsterking]

I'm tempted to townlock Gamma right now

[Frogsterking]

I'm feeling the absence of genuine Town Hunters in this game. I could use more Town reads from the following players I town lean.


Town leans:
Fred, Dunn, Mala, Gamma, Toogle, Meerkat,

Null/scum: rest

I kinda think Cakez might be town

Seriously? I thought 255 and 259 looked like excuses so they don't have to post anything.

PEdit:

Well confbias averted on SirCakez then.

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85345

Here.

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85345

Here.

@Mala

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: vivax i have read nothing yet

VOTE: MeekMeerkat

VOTE: Frederick
Ok this entrance sucked

I think the vivax vote was better
VOTE: Vivax
the repeated blathering about updating reads without actually interacting or expanding on them in a meaningful capacity is scummy-bad

how can you say that was a good vote when I said I hadn't read anything in the same post?

I don't really suspect frederick yet, is why

Ok and why do you suspect Vivax then

Read what I said in 126.

Vivax iso is also going downhill. The last two posts 218 and 254 are bad. 218 for being a scummy response (introducing a lot of noise) and 254 for making excuses about content.

[Frogsterking]

Though Tone plays a part I shall CONFESS,

Yeah I bet tone plays A PART, in fact I bet your WHOLE READ began as a strong tone read you thought only you could pick up on because of your unique point of view.

there is more to my read than that, as it is every bit of your contributions which REVEAL you to be among the DAMNED: your focus, viewpoints, where you are voting, how you are engaging, etc.

This level of certainty sounds like confirmation bias.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I understand the Titus town read now

[Frogsterking]

I don't have any strong opinions I've only used it once or twice, maybe like a few years ago.

[Frogsterking]

I have a secret scumread rn.

Me too.

[Frogsterking]

Does mastina have a divergent town/scum meta?

[Frogsterking]

Yume do you mind posting a readslist?

[Frogsterking]

I am not a readlist kind of person. I vote where my instinct tells me to. And my instinct always gwts it right, sooner or later.

In other words: you throw darts at a dartboard with pictures of all our avatars and vote whoever it hits?

[Frogsterking]

Oh my turn for a random question. Without revealing your tag publicly, who here likes discord? I do.

Depends.

Mafiascum discord?

Meh. I have an account for it, but I never check it because I only use it when it is mandatory.

Personal discord?

Spend the majority of my free time on the servers I'm a part of (primarily of streamers, but also Infinity and Beyond.), tbh.

Mastina do you have a divergent town/scum meta?

[Frogsterking]

there's like an actual script?
what happens if i put 5s on everything.

This looks kinda scummy

[Frogsterking]

Best Friends was chosen!

For the rest of this day phase, you may ask another person to form a neighborhood with you. If they accept, a neighborhood will form at the end of the day phase. These neighborhoods will be a maximum of two players, and open for the rest of the game. You may only be in one neighborhood formed through this augment.

These are optional, so feel free to be lonely!

Game continues!

Huh this isn't actually what I thought it was going to do. Cool mechanic though (the augments.) In the game aren't there three augment choices?

Frogsterking, would you work with me? I would like someone who thinks the opposite of me that I think is town.

Sure, that could be a good strategy.

Best Friends augment: Titus

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking I got a better idea. I would want your consent but I am not sure how to get it. I need you to be friends with someone first. Ideally town.

Mala, Gamma, Meerkat I think are Town

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking I got a better idea. I would want your consent but I am not sure how to get it. I need you to be friends with someone first. Ideally town.

Mala, Gamma, Meerkat I think are Town

Mala or Meek please. Then I'll try to figure how to get a modicum of informed consent.

Best Friends vanguard: Meek

Best Friends vanguard: Mala

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking I got a better idea. I would want your consent but I am not sure how to get it. I need you to be friends with someone first. Ideally town.

Mala, Gamma, Meerkat I think are Town

Mala or Meek please. Then I'll try to figure how to get a modicum of informed consent.

Best Friends *vanguard: Meek

Best Friends *vanguard: Mala

Best Friends *augment

[Frogsterking]

You really throwed something possible useful to get hoods.

Fucking social.

@Frogsterking I got a better idea. I would want your consent but I am not sure how to get it. I need you to be friends with someone first. Ideally town.

Mala, Gamma, Meerkat I think are Town

Mala or Meek please. Then I'll try to figure how to get a modicum of informed consent.

Does Enchant work? I think they're Town.

[Frogsterking]

On a scale of 1 being lowest and 10 being highest, how close are you willing to get Frogsterking?

10 of course

[Frogsterking]

Ok. I take that as informed consent.

*thread locked*

"Frogsterking has died!"

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking I got a better idea. I would want your consent but I am not sure how to get it. I need you to be friends with someone first. Ideally town.

Mala, Gamma, Meerkat I think are Town

Mala or Meek please. Then I'll try to figure how to get a modicum of informed consent.

Best Friends vanguard: Meek

Best Friends vanguard: Mala

This is tempting but tbh you make me paranoid. I’m nervous I’m easily pocketable

Do it! I'm easily pocketable as well.

@Enchant I'm down to hood with you too.

[Frogsterking]

@Meerkat

Look at how effortlessly I was pocketed by Titus:

SirCakez why post 255 if you're Town?

Not doing that bs survey

This is also suspicious.

I think you're supposing cooperation = town. People play differently, which is why I usually FoS you. I actually wouldn't like your RQS if it wasn't you posting it.

Oh my turn for a random question. Without revealing your tag publicly, who here likes discord? I do.

Oh I understand the Titus town read now

See Meerkat, you absolutely nothing to be intimidated by!

[Frogsterking]

I'll post more whenever I wake up.

I request a neighborhood with Frogsterking

I request a neighborhood with Malakittens

I request a neighborhood with MeekMeerkat

I request a neighborhood with Vivax

I request a neighborhood with Toogeloo

Acceptance will be appreciated.

Best Friends augment: accept Yume

It seems like being in a hood with Yume is a powerful (and dangerous) place to be.

I'm still struggling because there have to be a lot of bullets here if Nomsy is town, which greatly increases the chance that's a scum vig.

Part of me says I should revoke the offer to Frogster... but I'm not that certain of it. The strategy there is a bit confusing to me and I need to think on it. For now, I'll keep it in place once he's hooded up.

Because of this:

I feel that this partially clears Frogsterking, despite Mastina's suspicion of him.

You don't want scum to NK me and disable the network along with a partial clear? It makes sense.

PEdit:

Looks like a Yume!shade scum post.

VOTE: NDMath

If this flips scum then I believe the scum team is highly disorganized.

[Frogsterking]

YES WE DID IT! GOOD JOB TOWN + GG MAFIA!!

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Fred played pretty well this game? They had a good shot on Enchant at least, for .2 of their health lmao. It's too bad we couldn't find them as Town but at least their being MLed at that time seemed to play into Town's favor.

[Frogsterking]

Looking back I think Fred solved well on D1 with their early Town reads (below) and their shot on Enchant N1.

Concurrently, I believe the below is what lead to your ML, Fred:

I'm feeling the absence of genuine Town Hunters in this game. I could use more Town reads from the following players I town lean.


Town leans:
Fred, Dunn, Mala, Gamma, Toogle, Meerkat,

Null/scum: rest

p-value in this post is referring to the one found in statistics.

All the following reads have an approximate p-value of 95% in my estimate.

Town
Gamma Emerald
NDMath
Malakittens
Titus

Scum
Vivax

The leftover reads have a p-value of 100%. This means it is no different than what is expected by chance. Which means they are all null.

VOTE: Nomsy

Also scum with a p-value of 95% in my estimate.

Just starting to townread mastina with a p-value of 95%.

I have a feeling I'm using p-values incorrectly in some way that a statistician may be able to tell me.

Just starting to townread mastina with a p-value of 95%.

I have a feeling I'm using p-values incorrectly in some way that a statistician may be able to tell me.

The cutoff is 97.5 for unimodal curves, 95 for bimodal
Are you measuring two spectrums or one?

I don't even know if this is a game of mafia anymore lmao

The nature of alignments as data points is such that it isn't even continuous, causing it to be neither.

The idea I was trying to get at is that my confidence in all those reads are at 5%.

The statistical idea I was trying to get at is apparently so poorly thought out that my attempts to verbalise it makes me realise it's statistical nonsense.

Postscript:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

"Since the precise meaning of p-value is hard to grasp, misuse is widespread..."

I think this drew you a lot of negative attention which ultimately lead to players being more willing to BW later. I normally don't mind math discussions and even enjoy them in some cases, but even I was a little annoyed at best and suspicious at worst here because it seemed potentially designed to distract or disrupt the thread and I couldn't tell what you were getting at in the first place.

I think Fred had a positive impact on the game over all because I noticed he and NDMath were mutually Townreading each other, which influenced me to take a closer look at NDMath and their answers here:

Spoiler: Survey

Rate each descriptive statement on how well it describes you using the Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree).

"Get angry easily" = 2

"Take charge" = 2

"Make people feel welcome" = 3

"Like music" = 3

"Like to tidy up" = 1

"Like to visit new places" = 2

"Feel comfortable around people" = 4

"Interested in many things" = 2

"Love order and regularity" = 4

"Am afraid to draw attention to myself" = 5

"Enjoy being part of a large crowd" = 2

"Cheer people up" = 2

"Lose my temper" = 1

"Enjoy the beauty of nature" = 2

"Enjoy thinking about things" = 5

"Cheat to get ahead" = 1

"Feel desperate" = 2

"Rarely overindulge" = ?

"Easily resist temptations" = 5

"Have a high opinion of myself" = 4

"Waste my time" = 3

"Need a push to get started" = 2

"Have little to contribute" = 4

"Keep my cool" = 4

"Avoid crowds" = 4

"Turn my back on others" = 3

I ended up not running my script on any results this game, but I could eyeball a few of the facets to get an idea. If NDMath is telling the truth then they're likely to be targeted as a suspect because of their temperament. Being reluctant to draw attention to themselves, unlikely to react impulsively and preferring to think analytically about their reads can easily appear like scum trying to fly under-the-radar. I thought NDMath was lying about their temperament and eventually realized it was unlikely.

I probably wouldn't have given NDMath as much benefit of the doubt if I didn't recall his name appeared early in some Town lists, so I would argue that Fred directly influenced the chain of events which lead to beeboy being the D1 lim instead of NDMath.



While I'm in a positive and grateful frame of mind, I'll say the mods made a fantastic and dynamic set up I would play again multiple times, NDMath put the effort into solving overnight in his hood with Nomsy which was critical to inspiring the needed confidence in his slot to induct him into the Hydra, and Titus made such a large volume of social deductions and mechanical deductions that they deserve a Best Townplay nomination for their performance here, IMO.

[Frogsterking]

distract or disrupt the thread

this something u observed scum doing?
cause i think it only happens when said scum already has a guilty on them, and isn't trying to hide anymore, and the method is usually spamming, not non-standard posting.
people often scumread what is to them weird behavior. my expectation is that such yeets have less than rand accuracy overall, since scum have more of a motivation to blend in where townies want to be right.
didn't note it at the time but fred correcting himself about the meaning of the term "p-value" was probs a towntell.

Yeah it is something I've observed scum doing. It's aggressive and helpful for staying alive. I think a few awkward or extremely misguided posts which seem to be coming from a good place (or not even) can stop Town from finding each other and it's necessary to disrupt the thread in order to survive sometimes. I agree though about non-standard posting and that Fred was probably findable as Town.

[Frogsterking]

this something u observed scum doing?

Datisi, skitter and I are scum and gum up the thread with nonsense when the thread opens in a large normal: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7&start=25

[Frogsterking]

I'm curious to read the scum chat as well as any TvS hoods the scum were a part of.