TFT uPick Dead/Spec Thread

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TFT uPick Dead/Spec Thread

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:11 pm

Post by Ydrasse »

Image


Welcome! No spoilers, please!
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Last edited by Ydrasse on Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:12 pm, edited 11 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:30 pm

Post by mastina »

On the one hand.

Being killed by what is clearly some form of scum dayvig is an honor.

In hindsight, it makes some amount of sense--I
was
effectively roleclaiming my entire role D1, and not masking enough of it behind the bit. I figured that the chances of some form of daykilling mechanic/role would be insanely low, so that I could get away with it. (WHOOPS! Turns out that 5% chance of there being one, was actually there being one.) I understand why they took the shot, there.
If the shot required any form of knowing roles, they could make it with ease since I wasn't hiding as much as I should; regardless of any restrictions, they knew I would be a strong power role; beyond that, I would assume that my reads were more right than not.

So if they could kill me, and they thought leaving me alive was too much of a risk and that I wouldn't be an asset, that I'd be making scum eliminations more likely, I get why they'd take the shot.


...But on the
other
hand...


You HEATHENS!
You have WROUGHT UNTOLD PERIL to yourselves, for my WRATH shall be SEVERE. I was
enjoying
this game, this is the most fun I've had in a mafia game for literally YEARS, and now you have SULLIED that good time by ROBBING me of my GLORIOUS PRESCENCE among my AUDIENCE. A PLAGUE upon THEE who would DENY the MASSES my GLORY.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:31 pm

Post by mastina »

(I hope you enjoyed my roleplaying, Ydrasse/Pooky. <3)
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:38 pm

Post by Ydrasse »

i loved your posts lol! great energy c:
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:47 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3, Ydrasse wrote:i loved your posts lol! great energy c:
<3

I'm also bummed out because I was really looking forward to this game, I was actually the top activity poster (which literally NEVER happens in a game EVER), I was enjoying it, and there aren't many games being played right now that I want to be a part of so this was my first game in six months and I wanted to keep playing.

But oh well.

I knew there was a chance of a scum dayvig, but I didn't respect it. (I suppose it's fitting that my end was arrogantly not respecting that chance given my roleplay. But, in my defense: I had a dayvig as one of my powers, so I didn't think that there'd be another dayvig in the game given I possessed one myself. Turns out there was! And it's my bad for not respecting the chance of a duplicate role.)
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:50 pm

Post by Ydrasse »

heh, going to put this under spoilers in case you don't wanna see it, but

Spoiler:
technically
there's not a dayvig! and technically i think this kill is bad for the mafia in the long run!


regardless i'm glad you were enjoying it! c: it's nice to see people actually enjoy something esp since it's more complex than i've ever helped to create except for maybe my first game. (shout out pooky for answering my 500 neurotic questions)
and shoutout to this game for motivating me to get diamond in tft

i think your play would have really messed up the mafia tho, truly.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:51 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 715, Gamma Emerald wrote:Does a scumteam with Mala on it makes that shot?
I think returning to NDMath might be best
For the record, imo there's only two possible worlds:
NDMath scum, or Malakittens scum.

In a world where both are town, I don't think the scum shoot me. Swapping from one mislim to another doesn't really hurt them, and shooting me doesn't really give them a tangible benefit. It was going to be a mislim either way and I was willing and able to push both.

In a world where both are scum, I don't think the scum shoot me. That's a good way to make me a MARTYR (haha), and have people treat my reads where both were south of null as GOSPEL.

So that leaves one of the two as scum, but not both.

The two possible worlds I see, then, are:

-Malakittens is scum but didn't want to shoot me while I was pushing her; shifting off of her gave her team the excuse needed to kill me and frame a townie for it;
-NDMath is scum and the scum didn't want to shoot me while I was pushing town; once I shifted to pushing scum, they needed to kill me in order to shut that down.

I really just don't see how any other world is possible and I think it
has
to be one of those two specific worlds.
But, I'm not sure which yet; we'll have to see.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:52 pm

Post by Ydrasse »

(despite the first post in this thread if spoilers are wanted i'll posted them... as spoiled)
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:56 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 5, Ydrasse wrote:
Spoiler:
technically
there's not a dayvig! and technically i think this kill is bad for the mafia in the long run!
i think your play would have really messed up the mafia tho, truly.
I figured as much.

A daykill is an ace up the sleeve which scum really don't want to burn too early if they can avoid it. But, I have a way of making it a necessity to kill me. :P

(This is like the second or third time I've been daykilled by scum before.)

I don't doubt that I would've messed the mafia up since I feel like I had the potential to have really good reads. I knew my reads wouldn't be perfect, but I felt pretty
honed in
on "the zone", so to speak, where everything I was wrong about was something I could shift on and everything I was right about I could be steadfast on and convince others to my side. Would I have actually, impossible to know, but I'll take my death as a sign that the scum certainly believed I could. :P

And, yeah.
Spoiler:
While I was an incredibly powerful town PR, burning the daykill on me is something I would expect is very bad for the mafia, with the daykill having been something they needed for a different purpose that they can no longer use it for.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:59 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 7, Ydrasse wrote:(despite the first post in this thread if spoilers are wanted i'll posted them... as spoiled)
When I am not a part of dead threads, I tend to find it most entertaining in postgame to read the opinions of the dead so anything that would reveal an alignment even if just in hindsight (e.g. saying "the mafia have a rolecop" and then seeing a player claim rolecop would be an example of an indirect giveaway) probably best to not reveal, but anything that won't spew alignments is probably fine; what you gave in the spoiler is an example of something which should be okay.

But that might just be me.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:01 pm

Post by mastina »

For the record: I believe Yume when she says she joined the game for me, so she wouldn't approve of a daykill on me.

As such I maintain that she's town.

Titus strikes me as the type of player who would want to
try
to hold onto the daykill, but to be honest, the daykill on me kinda sorta feels like "Titus didn't want to use it, but felt pressured into it because I was uncomfortably close to solving on D1". Obviously, that's just feelings and such tho, I have no proof, no evidence, of this. Just gut of who would kill me then, and at that time. Titus with one of NDMath/Malakittens makes a weird sort of sense to me, dunno why.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:05 pm

Post by Ydrasse »

hehe
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:14 pm

Post by mastina »

Mala stating the shot looks bad for her (when it's actually bad for NDMath imo) makes me loosely lean towards it just being NDMath scum here.
In post 464, mastina wrote:{beeboy}
{tictac, Toogeloo}
{Frederick A Campbell}

{Frogsterking, SirCakez}
Hypothesizing, I'd expect ~2-3 in these names to be scum. 2 if Titus is scum, 3 if not. The fourth would be NDMath or Malakittens (currently leaning NDMath).

If Titus were scum, then the obvious choice would be Frogsterking, but I'm not sure how to form a full team from {Titus, Frogsterking, NdMath(/Malakittens), *fourth*}. It also seems a bit...well...blatant? Obvious? (Of course, maybe my ability to see it is why I died, so maybe the obvious is just, well. The obvious. :P)

My nulls were all low activity enough that I have no way to have any gauge on their alignment individually and no gauge of who they'd be likely to be partnered with or unlikely to be partnered with.

The only scumteam which has none of them would be {Titus, Frogsterking, SirCakez, NDMath(/Malakittens)}, so there's probably at least one.

With one of NDMath/Malakittens as scum, there's a maximum of three in those names.
The most likely amount is either 1 (Titus scum) or 2 imo.

But sadly, I can't make a D1 prediction of a precise scumteam because they haven't got the ties I need to form the connections.

Ah well.

I feel like I definitely am in the right zone here, with my thoughts as to my kill and the implications of it.
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:25 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 464, mastina wrote:DIVINELY JUDGED to be CHAMPIONS of JUSTICE:
{Yume}
{Dunnstral, Vivax, Titus}
{Sara}

Treat as TOWN:
{Enchant}
{Gamma Emerald}
{MeekMeerkat}
I think Gamma Emerald is basically hard-spewed town from the shot on me.
I maintain my Yume townread. If Yume joined the game specifically to play with me, then shot me on D1, I'll be heartbroken. Impressed! Genuinely shocked! But heartbroken.

For Enchant, he
could
be scum with his play, but I just don't feel it. He could kill me as that's something he'd do, I just don't currently think he did.

For Sara, I've zero familiarity with Sara at all, but her play just makes me think I was right about her being town. I also don't think she kills me.
For Vivax, this is my first encounter with Vivax, but I meant it when I said I felt like Vivax was a kindred soul. I admit it might just be that I
want
Vivax to be town, but I did feel it was looking into a mirror, a town mirror. I don't think Vivax kills me.
For Dunnstral, I just don't think this is him as scum at all, and he doesn't strike me as the type who would kill me. He
could
, I just don't think he did.

So I'd treat these townreads in term of chance to be accurate as:
{Gamma Emerald} > {Yume} > {Sara, Vivax}
>
{Dunnstral}
>
{Enchant} > MeekMeerkat > Titus.

I don't think there's more than 2 scum there, probably not more than 1. Either 0 or 1 imo.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:28 pm

Post by mastina »

(The sad part about analyzing my death is that it being MY death, the town will never benefit from my work. :P But ah well. It's still something I find a good exercise, since it'll serve as a sort of proving grounds of sorts. If I was on the right track, it shows the scum made a good call; if I'm wildly off-base, it means the mafia made a mistake.)
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:54 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 745, NDMath wrote:The page 21 gamma wagon seemed questionable to me but my opinion's biased since I scumlean 3 of the 4 voters beforehand.
Additionally, Yume after Mastina's death seems dramatic to the point that it seems for show.
Oh yeah, NDMath is the scum in ND/Malakittens.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 10:06 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 789, Dunnstral wrote:Mastina continued to do the rp thing and slowly revealed more and more info about their role, pretty much outright saying that they had 4 abilities that scaled up as people died. Predictably, mafia didn't like that very much and shot her dead. What wasn't expected was that she was also killed during the day phase, so we lost our doublevoter-bp-loved-commuter-cop-governor-dayvigilante. In the resulting power vacuum that ensued from both the day vig firing and mastina's broken role dying, Titus decided to gundam morph into FrogsterKing's slot and now they're a hydra account with 2 seperate alignments (which could be the same). Titus the aired out a laundry list of downsides to doing so then basically said "trust me bro" and hinted that they had really good powers too, so we can expect mafia to take offense to that too. Oh and they only count as 1 for parity so we now have 16 people left on day 1 when we started with 18 in this 17 player game.
This is one of the most hilarious posts of all time. <3
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Thu Aug 25, 2022 10:07 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 812, Enchant wrote:Mastina alive, just in dead hood
This one's pretty good, too.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:20 am

Post by mastina »

For the record, Titus's merge with Frogsterking imo means that a maximum of one of them is scum. Both being scum is too much of a risk for too little a reward.

So that means 0-1 scum in {Titus, Frogsterking}.
In post 12, mastina wrote:Mala stating the shot looks bad for her (when it's actually bad for NDMath imo) makes me loosely lean towards it just being NDMath scum here.
In post 464, mastina wrote:{beeboy}
{tictac, Toogeloo}
{Frederick A Campbell}

{Frogsterking, SirCakez}
Hypothesizing, I'd expect ~2-3 in these names to be scum. 2 if Titus is scum, 3 if not. The fourth would be NDMath or Malakittens (currently leaning NDMath).

If Titus were scum, then the obvious choice would be Frogsterking, but I'm not sure how to form a full team from {Titus, Frogsterking, NdMath(/Malakittens), *fourth*}. It also seems a bit...well...blatant? Obvious? (Of course, maybe my ability to see it is why I died, so maybe the obvious is just, well. The obvious. :P)

My nulls were all low activity enough that I have no way to have any gauge on their alignment individually and no gauge of who they'd be likely to be partnered with or unlikely to be partnered with.

The only scumteam which has none of them would be {Titus, Frogsterking, SirCakez, NDMath(/Malakittens)}, so there's probably at least one.

With one of NDMath/Malakittens as scum, there's a maximum of three in those names.
The most likely amount is either 1 (Titus scum) or 2 imo.

But sadly, I can't make a D1 prediction of a precise scumteam because they haven't got the ties I need to form the connections.

Ah well.

I feel like I definitely am in the right zone here, with my thoughts as to my kill and the implications of it.
In post 13, mastina wrote:
In post 464, mastina wrote:DIVINELY JUDGED to be CHAMPIONS of JUSTICE:
{Yume}
{Dunnstral, Vivax, Titus}
{Sara}

Treat as TOWN:
{Enchant}
{Gamma Emerald}
{MeekMeerkat}
I think Gamma Emerald is basically hard-spewed town from the shot on me.
I maintain my Yume townread. If Yume joined the game specifically to play with me, then shot me on D1, I'll be heartbroken. Impressed! Genuinely shocked! But heartbroken.

For Enchant, he
could
be scum with his play, but I just don't feel it. He could kill me as that's something he'd do, I just don't currently think he did.

For Sara, I've zero familiarity with Sara at all, but her play just makes me think I was right about her being town. I also don't think she kills me.
For Vivax, this is my first encounter with Vivax, but I meant it when I said I felt like Vivax was a kindred soul. I admit it might just be that I
want
Vivax to be town, but I did feel it was looking into a mirror, a town mirror. I don't think Vivax kills me.
For Dunnstral, I just don't think this is him as scum at all, and he doesn't strike me as the type who would kill me. He
could
, I just don't think he did.

So I'd treat these townreads in term of chance to be accurate as:
{Gamma Emerald} > {Yume} > {Sara, Vivax}
>
{Dunnstral}
>
{Enchant} > MeekMeerkat > Titus.

I don't think there's more than 2 scum there, probably not more than 1. Either 0 or 1 imo.
So I feel like I can combine all this into a semi-coherent solve.

Got other things to do tho so may tackle that later.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:51 am

Post by mastina »

Loosely thinking tictac is scum here btw, so far.
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:18 pm

Post by mastina »

The sad thing about being shot dead in the middle of the day is that I didn't get a good chance to make my reads more clear.

Notably, my Malakittens scumread had softened and if people were paying attention, they'd know I was voting NDMath at the time I was daykilled.

Being killed overnight is one thing; you can usually make your reads clear before the beginning of the night.

But being shot in the middle of the day means I wasn't ready for it and didn't get another chance to give updated reads.

Now, granted.
I admit that the true thing making me doubt my Malakittens scumread is actually specifically the dayvig on me. I can't exactly tell the town "Malakittens is town because I died", after I've died. :P

But, the scumread
was
weakened even while I was alive, and it is my current analysis that she is likely town, at least if my assumption of NDMath being scum is right.

Again, I don't see a 0-scum world of {Malakittens, NDMath} nor a 2-scum world of them, and thus, one and exactly one of them is going to be scum.

But from NDMath's posts and the circumstances surrounding my death, I think it's NDMath that's the scum of the two right now which would by deduction make Malakittens town.

I could be wrong on my NDMath scumread and the original Malakittens scumread was right, yeah.

But right now I think the NDMath read is right and the Malakittens read was wrong.
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:32 pm

Post by mastina »

{NDMath, tictac} is currently my guess for 2/4.

I'd say the remaining 2 are most likely 1 of {SirCakez, Frogsterking}, and 1 of {beeboy, Toogeloo, Frederick A Campbell} with an outside chance of MeekMeerkat.
I realize tictac and NDMath are both saying the other is scum but neither is actually voting the other, so I like the scumteam there. I don't really think they're probably going to do a complex multi-buss shenanigan though, which makes me lean against Toogeloo being scum, per 916.

Given that, that'd narrow it down further.

{NDMath, tictac} + 2 of {SirCakez, Frogsterking, beeboy, Frederick A Campbell}. (Outside chance MeekMerkat.)

Thinking about it, I had a thought: Frederick A Campbell was voting me and asking questions of me. I don't think that matches the profile of dayvigging me, which reduces the chance of him being scum significantly.

So that leaves {NDMath, tictac} + 2 of {SirCakez, Frogsterking, beeboy}. (Outside chance MeekMeerkat.)

With {beeboy, SirCakez} both being in NDMath's null sphere, I'm gonna rule-of-3 there and say there's at least one scumbuddy there, small chance of being both.
Which leaves it as
{NDMath, tictac} + 1-2 of {SirCakez, beeboy} + 0-1 of {Frogsterking, MeekMeerkat}.
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:38 pm

Post by mastina »

Hmmm...HMMMMMM...
This with the later shift away shift and the rule of 3 makes me also fairly suspect of MeekMeerkat here.

So, maybe {NDMath, tictac, SirCakez, MeekMeerkat}?
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:48 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 22, mastina wrote:So, maybe {NDMath, tictac, SirCakez, MeekMeerkat}?
I'm tentatively locking this in as my solve from following the logic train and stacking deduction on top of deduction.

I realize each deduction stacked on top of the next adds a layer of assumption so the earlier into the chain an assumption is proven wrong, the more damage it does to this solve, but it seems pretty solid.

Doing an iso of Frederick A Campbell, his iso is plausible as scum but I'm still in spite of seeing how he could be scum am comfortable with my read of him being town.

I similarly iso'd Frogsterking and am comfortable saying town there, too.


With my assumption 1 of {NDMath, Malakittens} is scum, and with me having selected NDMath as that;
With me seeing tictac as scum and specifically {NDMath, tictac} interactions as scum-scum;
With there likely being a scum in {beeboy, SirCakez} from NDMath's list and Toogeloo being unlikely to be scum from that same list;
With beeboy as a scumread of tictac and MeekMeerkat.

It's a pretty damn solid solve.
Admittedly, I did forget the 0-1 scum in {Titus, Frogsterking} so if the solve I have is wrong, one of them would be the fourth probably.

But it makes sense to me.
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mastina
mastina
She
False Prophet
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mastina
She
False Prophet
False Prophet
Posts: 16052
Joined: October 7, 2016
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Location: Between Snohomish and Monroe, WA
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:39 am

Post by mastina »

In post 954, Toogeloo wrote:
In post 214, mastina wrote:(Also, how the bloody hell do I have the highest post count in the game. That literally never happens, ever.)
Obviously without mastina to GUIDE us, we are lost little LAMBS to be eventually SLAUGHTERED.
I mean if the Sara wagon went through when Sara was one of my strongest townreads, then yes. :P

My flock would be following their shepherd by voting NDMath tho.
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