LOST: Dead Thread

[Frogsterking]

Who do you all think my remaining buddies are?

Probably Pooky and Drap

[Frogsterking]

If you can't trust Machiavelli then who

can

you trust????

[Frogsterking]

luke checked out because he started to contemplate whether or not i was scum since all of his scum reads flipped town

[Frogsterking]

I'm unable to discern who OtH partner is by skimming the thread. My intuition is that it's Best Bird for their horrendous use of their PR ability.

Guesswork/intuition doesn't need to be relied on at this stage of the game because there are 3.95 confscum (including OtH as the .95) who can be ISO dived across a digital paper trail spanning 600~ pages.

I imagine Nancy is being kept alive because they TR marci (unless that's changed) so I think it might be wise to silently ISO dive the flipped scum now and focus on pushing OtH, with the idea that Nancy will eat the NK tonight and the final scum can be caught off guard tomorrow.

I imagine also that if you really want to seal the deal, now would be a great time to start seriously shooting-the-shit with Johnny (unless you deduce them to be the last one) because I think you need their vote and I think that's the best method of demonstrating sincerity to Johnny.

[Frogsterking]

It's OtH and not Johnny?

It's OtH and one person other than Nancy AFAIK, and I'm only looking at the day play aspect of it, I'm not sure what reports yall received.

[Frogsterking]

maybe OtH + Noraa

That..could explain a lot.

[Frogsterking]

I remember Malcolm voted Taly after about 20 minutes of in-thread deliberation. Stuff like that is probably worth digging up here.

[Frogsterking]

It's OtH and not Johnny?

It's OtH and one person other than Nancy AFAIK, and I'm only looking at the day play aspect of it, I'm not sure what reports yall received.

Oh, I meant like why is OtH scum over Johnny scum?

Gotcha. Am I allowed to quote directly from the main thread if I cut out the post links?

[Frogsterking]

Yeah, I don't think you even need to cut out the post links

Sorry for my delay. I refuse to Townsend Johnny, if they are Town then I think they're the eighth scum slot. As for OtH, I think they're easier to read by ignoring marci's posts and focusing on Gamma's. I can't get over this OtH post:

Heya
I’m keeping up, I don’t know if it’s 100% needed rn but I have what I would call a good reason to write us off as possible scum
Also, when it comes to possible Johnny partners, I don’t think there’s anyone directly connected to him but out of butterflies/Noraa/MLB I think MLB is the most likely scum
I think it’s a bit odd the the pair of MLB+ND39 (she’s the constant in that slot) has gone untouched especially with butterflies being a generally uncontested TR from what I recall (Drapion being an outlier). I recall Nancy saying Klick was towny in their hood so maybe she’s been kept for being pocketed

~GE

"Heya" seems suspicious..

In the first section of the post, Gamma informs the thread that he is watching...but not

too

closely. He is especially uninterested in the survival of his own slot. By chance, while spending his spare time thinking effectively and logically about the game, he had a eureka moment about why his slot

should

survive...and he won't tell the thread his idea. Instead, he moves onto the second section of his post where he reminds the thread there are other players in the game by listing their names. Gamma implies we should be eliminating mis lim bait --I mean Johnny-- and says it will be difficult to identify a good follow up to Johnny tomorrow, except

maybe

Mis Lim Bait will do the trick. Gamma concludes with the third section of his post, which is something incomprehensible about Nancy.

I would rate my certainty that this post comes from scum as high. I don't feel that way about any of Johnny's posts. Johnny's posts just make me feel bad.

[Frogsterking]

Main thread looks spicy.

You played well around my slot this game and I noticed your Macready pause when voting in the gladiate. I possibly never would have voted you.

[Frogsterking]

It's OtH and not Johnny?

It's OtH and one person other than Nancy AFAIK, and I'm only looking at the day play aspect of it, I'm not sure what reports yall received.

Oh, I meant like why is OtH scum over Johnny scum?

Okay there's another golden post from Gamma:

Let me put this another way:
What DO you find fun about this game? For me, I enjoy the social connections I get to make, and I also sometimes enjoy getting to embrace my inner thespian and play a role (not in the power role sense)

~GE

What the hell is Gamma talking about lmao. This isn't a Town slot.

[Frogsterking]

I think that based on what I've read of the main thread, OTH is the most likely to be the next elimination.

I don't know how much power Town has left, but it seems like a winning strat for the last scum might be to bus the hell out of OtH.

[Frogsterking]

Here’s the thing:

we’ve voice chatted before

. I think you of all people would know I’m only trying to help. Is that the nicest thing in the world to say, definitely not, but it’s hard to really describe what I’m seeing here any other way. We called BB town ONCE and now you’re getting pissed at us for it.

~Gamma Emerald

we've voice chatted before

I feel like unless Best Bird is the last one, this game is headed towards a three player lylo with Johnny, Noraa and Mis Lim Bait, which sounds interesting IMO.

[Frogsterking]

Main thread looks spicy.

You played well around my slot this game and

I noticed your Macready pause when voting in the gladiate.

I possibly never would have voted you.

As in the pause made you think I was town?

Yes!

[Frogsterking]

I'll say that I respect Gamma's WiM to survive and not let down his scum team.

[Frogsterking]

0 Roden
1 Butterflies
2 Mislim Bait
3 Johnny
4 Best Bird
5 Noraa
6 OTH

[Frogsterking]

The remaining town disappoints me in that they aren't anywhere close to an elimination rn.

True dat, I appreciate the scum team stepping up periodically to set this Town straight:

Let me reword that. Luke's reads hold weight to me, due to being flipped town and being generally pretty good at this game.

luke literally doesnt have a single brain cell that is able to townread me present in his head.

[Frogsterking]

@CSF

1 day 8 hours left for any list swaps

Man this lack of consolidation is a thing.

Should I swap Noraa and Johnny? This is my list rn:

0 Roden
1 Butterflies
2 Mislim Bait
3 Johnny
4 Best Bird
5 Noraa
6 OTH

[Frogsterking]

This Noraa wagon is bananas. If that gladiate went like that day one and that slot is SCUM? That entire team deserves the win for how cool they played it. No way. Noraa flips town and then y'all finally ML me tomorrow gg no re.

No thank you.

Stuff like this is kinda sus and I trust CSF and Noraa more than the knuckleheaded group-think we've got popping here in the dead thread.

@Math

(update)

Spoiler:

0 Roden
1 Butterflies
2 Mislim Bait
3 Noraa
4 Best Bird
5 Johnny
6 OTH

@CSF

New question: should I swap BB and Johnny

[Frogsterking]

I thought you cased Johnny a while back and then got NKed?

[Frogsterking]

I'm low-moderate I'm the only dead player with the correct solve and Noraa is flipping Town.

[Frogsterking]

I'm low-moderate I'm the only dead player with the correct solve and Noraa is flipping Town.

Low-moderate certainty

[Frogsterking]

This shit is tense.

God I wish I could post in the scum thread.

I will say no more.

Is what I think happened really what happened?

[Frogsterking]

This shit is tense.

God I wish I could post in the scum thread.

I will say no more.

Is what I think happened really what happened?

I'm low-moderate I'm the only dead player with the correct solve and Noraa is flipping Town.

Low-moderate certainty

Low certainty lol

[Frogsterking]

This shit is tense.

God I wish I could post in the scum thread.

I will say no more.

Is what I think happened really what happened?

I'm low-moderate I'm the only dead player with the correct solve and Noraa is flipping Town.

Low-moderate certainty

Low certainty lol

Low-moderate certainty.

[Frogsterking]

Johnny played alright Frog :p
Feel like you think weaker players are extra wolves.
When if you can solve and try and clear the weaker players it actually benefits town significantly :p
I was trying to do that with Rad and Johnny.

What did you mean by this exactly?

[Frogsterking]

I'm almost moderately certain now my updated solve in 299 is the only correct solve and that Noraa is flipping Town. If I'm correct in my assessment then I predict this game is going to be a loss for Town on Day 13. There is

a lot

more information which can be looked at due to the size of the game so it is possible to reach a more accurate solve with more time and effort. The fact that I'm not aware of most of the information available by reading the main thread is the only thing holding me back from being moderately certain in my assessment.

[Frogsterking]

I'm almost moderately certain now my updated solve in 299 is the only correct solve and that Noraa is flipping Town. If I'm correct in my assessment then I predict this game is going to be a loss for Town on Day 13. There is

a lot

more information which can be looked at due to the size of the game so it is possible to reach a more accurate solve with more time and effort. The fact that I'm not aware of most of the information available by reading the main thread is the only thing holding me back from being moderately certain in my assessment.

Town wins

[Frogsterking]

I said Taly and Butterflies

Congrats we brought the average down lmao *fist bump*

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13510706

What a Hero Hammer

[Frogsterking]

Holy crap the Taly slot took a lot to kill

[Frogsterking]

My spirit can RIP now *floats away*

[Frogsterking]

Wait, why is Drap still here lmao? Is this the first time they intentionally played against their win con on this account?

[Frogsterking]

You convinced me you were Town Noraa, FWIW

[Frogsterking]

i thiiiiiink nancy did actually catch me this time. i dont generally think that, but i do think she legitimately caught me good this time. i felt the fakeness of our interactions and i was like hmm nancy is never this weird when interacting with me.
lukewarm, not so much. i think he'd call me scum regardless of my alignment.

bb as well

.

roden is hard to say. johnny would probably call me town either way. mlb i have no clue.

Noraa's half hearted attempts at distancing from BB won't feel me!

[Frogsterking]

i thiiiiiink nancy did actually catch me this time. i dont generally think that, but i do think she legitimately caught me good this time. i felt the fakeness of our interactions and i was like hmm nancy is never this weird when interacting with me.
lukewarm, not so much. i think he'd call me scum regardless of my alignment.

bb as well

.

roden is hard to say. johnny would probably call me town either way. mlb i have no clue.

Noraa's half hearted attempts at distancing from BB won't fool me!

EBWOP

[Frogsterking]

Wow, it really was BB. What a deep scum.

[Frogsterking]

That said, I read you a bit more towny for attacking her cause why would scum!Noraa attack Nancy here?! Clearly that was a bad read on my part

+1, I thought the Taly slot was obvscum until I read too many of Noraa's posts so she played a strategy that's good against certain players IMO.

[Frogsterking]

I’ve got a vacation to go on…can we just get this game over with?

This is VI line. Don't vote them out, don't follow their case, just let this slot play around and hope they sheep you when you vote obvscum.

[Frogsterking]

I'd prefer to see marci back up Gamma more, not because it helps my win condition but out of a holistic/beauty sense because I think that hydra slot is more effective when they work the juxtaposition between the two personalities.

[Frogsterking]

The reason I think it’s OTH is because of you look at a graph of game interest you’ll note that everyone else’s has gone up or been steady while theirs went down.

You could argue it’s rl stuff, but they’re a hydra.

Did you use python for that? I'd also argue that rl isn't a good explanation because if you ignore marci's posts and just focus on gamma, his writing is purely survivalistic and full of shade and it's often difficult to tell what he's even getting at or why.

[Frogsterking]

The reason I think it’s OTH is because of you look at a graph of game interest you’ll note that everyone else’s has gone up or been steady while theirs went down.

You could argue it’s rl stuff, but they’re a hydra.

Did you use python for that? I'd also argue that rl isn't a good explanation because if you ignore marci's posts and just focus on gamma, his writing is purely survivalistic and full of shade and it's often difficult to tell what he's even getting at or why.

An example of how the OtH slot can be found by reading and critical thinking is broken down in 247.