LOST: Dead Thread

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Ahh this exists now, neat

No access for Luke or Ceph so BB isn't lying. Not that I thought he was

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yo Malcolm FU!!!

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Who do you all think my remaining buddies are?

I'll go with c&g and oth. More interesting would be Yeet and BB though cause that team probably wins here. Even more interesting is Drap + anyone but probably just in my paranoid dreams.

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Aw don't feel bad mala. You fixed your scum read on me and I mislimmed you. My bad, not yours.

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Tbh you just played really well malcolm, imo. I don't think I pick you out as scum if you didn't target me specifically. So I was worried I was conf biasing you, and mala scum seemed like a no brainer that I would actually have to overthink to conclude that she was town.

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ngl I'm super disappointed in c&g flipping town here. I'd have read you completely differently without all the bs surrounding the 100 word limit, breaking it, having no penalty, etc. I was heavily relying on game integrity being important there. Sorry I wasn't able to get past that.

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Hey I've forgotten. Who was C and who was G?

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This is fun to watch, ngl. Consider me sold on town!drap rofl. Regardless of alignment, this was an interesting play. town!Drap forced his scum read c&g to a lim and was wrong, or scum!Drap grabbed a free lim believing he could talk his way out of it. Town seems a bit more likely. I do think he should have pushed someone more difficult to flip in a scum!Drap scenario. c&g is mislim worthy for the rest of the game so why trade there? You take out someone like Pooky or Nancy. scum!Drap only picks someone like c&g so he could make this specific argument I think but that's pretty specific of a gambit...

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OTH vote on drap is sus. Really, drap + johnny here? So scum!drap trades for c&g and expects his partner johnny to survive and win the game? I can't imagine that being the case. scum!Drap has to have a really solid partner here set up for victory and that's not johnny.

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Yeah not saying scum!Johnny isn't possible or capable of winning here, but isn't Johnny a policy flip if scum!drap? Or does everyone assume strongly enough that drap is just white knighting town!johnny there? I'd want to flip him just in case in scum!drap scenario so I was thinking that would be the most likely follow up, making this move terrible from a scum drap Johnny team

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Pff easy OTH pooky *drop mic* baaiii

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Hey Drap. GJ on hard reading me town btw You were hard scum reading me on entry and suddenly switched during the Ceph gladiate, and never dropped it. Nice!

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I dunno. There was a point where I attack DP(butterflies) almost randomly (gut read way early) and Malcolm jumps on me for it. I feel like that was more likely white-knighting but yeah, could be scum protecting. Nancy does come to slowly trust me again after that while Malcolm did not.

If Nancy is scum she played a scum game way beyond what I would expect out of scum. BBT caught her early though if scum.

I think a more likely grouping is OTH + Pooky. I thought Taly was scum early though so maybe OTH + Taly.

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OTH claimed Drap + johnny which makes absolutely no sense IMO.

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I just mean it seems like an easy pairing to point to, in order to get Drap limmed, which is when it happened.

OTH can back off that after drap flips town (Oops!).

Drap + Johnny doesn't make sense from a pairing perspective when OTH suggested it. Yeah town can make bad calls. I find it more likely motive for scum to push that idea when OTH did though.

But I mean, you pushing me on this idea Math makes me assume I'm just wrong lol ;P Which could certainly be the case.

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Why would you expect someone to make sense?

That just reinforced group think vs town/scum.

I get scumread so much as town because I disagree not because I am scummy.

I'll put some thought into this concept though cause that's really interesting

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Scum showing mercy to pooky here

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it makes absolutely no sense for nancy to kill me lol what

I already said my thoughts last day.

F5 with You/Them/Taly/Hook/ML Bait

They have no one to call the team.
They are pocketing Hook and town read you.
They need another player to call a wolf.

This still doesn't explain why pooky before roden. No one can switch here to scum!Roden. Everyone could switch to scum!Pooky. Might make sense to kill pooky next but not here. So there's some other reason to kill pooky over roden here. IMO it's just wifom chaos kill.

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I'm changing my guess to BB + Taly

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I looked through BB's iso cause bored.

BB joining Math wagon vote felt like there was enough momentum that it seemed inevitable. Jumped on Bella wagon quick cause real red check means it's inevitable. Didn't do anything with Malcolm wagon that I noticed aside from some momentum malcolm votes earlier that didn't fully play out.

Outside that he hard pressed multiple town wagons and doesn't ever seem to have much sway in his opinion once he's latched onto a wagon, aside from momentum swings which he tends to follow. Like he decides there's logical reason to push a wagon so that's that, no reason to hesitate or openly second guess. This is beneficial as scum on scum wagon because town should conclude they're scum anyway if there's a strong logical reason for them to be, and it's beneficial as scum on town because when town flips green he can point to how reasonable the flip was if pressured.

I don't think he's caught ANY shit for any of the town wagons he's pushed either due to how he's voted.

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Nancy scum seems kinda impossible tbh. 2 months of non-stop aggro scum play seems absolutely exhausting and she's constantly pulling out reasons for her reads from ISOs. Lesson learned for me if Nancy scum here but I doubt it.

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Nancy's reads on me also always felt organic. Like she never turned on me for bs reasons, it was always a reaction to something I said and it always felt very natural when she did it. When I first called out DP to Luke and wanted to flip them, both Nancy and Malcolm jumped on me hard. Malcolm maintained that scum read the entire rest of the game and Nancy very sloooowly backed off into a hard town read until the next time I pressed her wrong and that process repeated. Think that process happened twice full loop and the third time was during my elim where she finally didn't back off (for fairly legit reasons cause I went off on her lol).

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Also what do you gain from defending Bella like me Nancy and BBT did if you're scum? Bella lives another day if our plan goes through. Who cares? Bella doesn't die that night. If Drap dies, Bella's to blame. When scum kills someone else, we policy flip Bella most likely? Or leave her alive 1 more day just in case? She's a policy flip eventually 100% and Bella has to play the next X days with more content that could given away her partners. Like what's the long term plan there and what is scum!Nancy trying to accomplish by pushing for that plan? Probably just 3 town defending a plan they believe in yeah?

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I think town!Johnny is a better flip tomorrow than today, so pushing him hard today is counter-intuitive to scum ez winning this. He's the same type of poison if town in ELO that I believed my slot was.

I think scum!Nancy/Taly should have killed MLB or BB last night. Who cares about implicating Johnny in a Pooky flip? Johnny's the easiest push at ELO you've ever seen and Pooky hard reads Nancy town (I assume she's telling the truth there, can't remember that happening exactly, if I was in game I'd search for it but fuck it). If town!BB dies last night you just let town figure out who to flip and go with it (probably johnny, but you don't hard push johnny).

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Nancy's style of play is pretty frustrating but she's still probably just town here.

Noraa really didn't have to talk this much to just win as scum here if Nancy's town. So either a massive blunder or just town. And if Nancy + Noraa are scum pair, still, just shut up and let Nancy handle this, so Noraa's probably town. Noraa's "I'm just playing like I would play as scum so I'm more likely town read" is probably just scum!Noraa but I've had similar thoughts lately about playing more like my scum game as town since my scum game gets read town so easily that I kinda feel it.

Johnny pushing for self lim here is same towny logic that I gave and does feel sincere. You can take him up on his offer but you should have a plan for after he flips town. Also this isn't new for him, he mentioned it way back when I was still in the game.

I don't trust Nancy's read on OtH at all anymore, and OtH is playing like I'd expect scum to play here. A tiny push on nancy that clearly went wrong and then you gotta back way off.

BB coming across as more towny lately but I have to assume he has the scum range to play this out correctly so I'll stick with a scum read on him. Nothing is jumping out as "BB so towny!" BB never changes his read during a push and has "Luke reads" to do whatever he wants with. It's like a super powered Malcolm novel that has taken down multiple town

Why is MLB town again? Cause he pushed malcolm when only I was? If I was still in this game I'd be looking over his ISO pretty hard.

Roden's conf town so outside some bs mechanics that I don't realize, just going to let him be conf town.

I'd push a OtH > BB > MLB sequence here.

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0 - Roden
1 - butterflies
2 - johnny
3 - noraa
4 - mlb
5 - bb
6 - oth

noraa and mlb kinda interchangable, others pretty accurate

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0 - Roden
1 - butterflies
2 - johnny
3 - noraa
4 - mlb
5 - bb
6 - oth

noraa and mlb kinda interchangable, others pretty accurate

Would
1 - butter
2 - Johnny
3.5 - Noraa
3.5 - mlb
5 - bb
6 - oth

Be more accurate?

Ah I see. Something like this then:

1 - butter
2 - Johnny
3.5 - Noraa
3.5 - mlb
4.5 - bb
4.5 - oth

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This could be some great distancing from a Johnny/BB team

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I'll update my list:

1 - butterflies
1 - Johnny
2 - MLB
5 - Noraa
5 - BB
6 - OTH

I think if you kill Noraa, BB, and OTH, in whatever order, town wins but a johnny/BB scum team is the scum team we deserve so I'd enjoy losing to that

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wooo time to finally progress

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CSF didn't die for pushing johnny (all game) lol (IMO). She died for being JK. If johnny's scum I guess that's a bonus.

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OTH next and probably GG

Wild we almost had scum day 1. Reading back over it, it was just so emotionally charged. I think without the emotions, we probably flip Taly there. It's interesting to see how the known scum interacted with both wagons during the gladiate though. I think if Taly got flipped there Malcolm passes as town for the rest of the game. Klick had a similar entry onto the Taly wagon which gave me conf town vibes for MLB slot until Malcolm came in and made the same entrance.

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noraa we were spoiler free up until now

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Well, just to be real with you here Noraa, the correct strat for the taly slot (IMO) here was to let Nancy defend you to the win. Probably not super clear considering you joined so late and didn't read the rest of the game though. I agree that it's more likely a town would attack Nancy here than scum, but the Taly slot specifically just needed to chill out and let her win the game for you. There's no slot Nancy read harder town than yours and pushing town!Nancy only reads as a scum move to her.

Like I'm kinda surprised if your scum teammate didn't throw that out there for you to consider.

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yeah but:

4 Noraa (butterflies, Best Bird, Roden, Mislim Bait)
1 Mislim Bait (Off the Hook)
1 Best Bird (JohnnyFarrar)

You underestimate Nancy's influence in this game. Your slot is dead day 1 without her, and she defended it hardcore many times past day 1. Like maybe you die anyway but it becomes much much easier to survive with Nancy on your side. Does Johnny vote you here? Doubt it.

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Honestly I don't think you get flipped here if Nancy's not already on you. BB, Roden, MLB all voted you back to back to back because a) they didn't want to follow Johnny and b) MLB is too towny. So they went with Nancy's vote. If Nancy's on BB here BB's gone. Town has to consolidate quickly here and Nancy's close to required to make that happen.

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Also Johnny got saved because of Nancy.

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Well, don't get me wrong. Nancy hard TRing you doesn't mean scum absolutely wins here, but it sure does help. So attacking her was a mistake, even if attacking her was more likely towny than scummy. It was a game specific mistake, or Nancy specific mistake, I dunno.

That said, I read you a bit more towny for attacking her cause why would scum!Noraa attack Nancy here?! Clearly that was a bad read on my part

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This is going to be a scum win with bb butterflies oth misliming bb

Gg

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No one tunneled town better than BB this game

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Maybe ML Bait

100% MLB dies tonight.

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Maybe ML Bait

100% MLB dies tonight.

Or butterflies dies for MAX WIFOM

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Is Nancy reading OTH as scum?

No, she's kinda locktowned OTH due to thinking scum!GE is out of the question based on something they said and their friendship and yeah...

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HAHA MAX WIFOM GOOOO

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Nancy you can trash Drap all you want, but you hard defended the Taly slot so aggressively that I felt uncomfortable even considering mentioning it after day 1.

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HAHA MAX WIFOM GOOOO

^ the reason you're dead right now

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Just kick back and wait for the "Nancy townlocked me, why would I kill her?" argument

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Math the way you talk feels like there's still something sneaky we don't know about yet. Can't wait to find out XD

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Just kick back and wait for the "Nancy townlocked me, why would I kill her?" argument

So I’m going to guess you think it’s OtH then?

If it weren’t for Gamma telling me to quit playing mafia, I’d probably be more suspicious. I would be extremely disappointed that Gamma would hurt me like that to win a scumgame (intentionally or otherwise), because he would have to know I’d be absolutely livid with him postgame.

Gamma 100% knows this and I just have real trouble seeing him being totally fine with that. And he doesn’t seem to really be much affected by it all really and I don’t see how he wouldn’t as scum?

I think Gamma was just being real with you, not doing it to try to win the game, just how he decided to reach out as a friend. I mean, that's gotta be the explanation if he's town right? It can be the same explanation if he's scum. His intention can be the same there regardless of what his alignment is this game. You can be upset with him for how he approached it but I don't think it's necessarily alignment indicative.

I do think OTH is scum here.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13508746

theres no reason for scum noraa not to hammer town oth at this game state

That alone is damning. I called out a while ago that Noraa/BB/OTH lims in any order wins town the game and I still believe that was true then. If I was in the game I might have a hard time deciding between BB and OTH but pooky's point on the wagon I think is the nail in the coffin.

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Johnny's poison until the end. You bring johnny into ELO if you can.

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Why do you think BB wanted Johnny first? Game would be over with Johnny miselim before Noraa. So I don’t find that argument terribly compelling.

I think BB legit believed Johnny was scum cause BB is town.

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Marci's 15329 is exactly the same kind of post I've made a couple times as scum. You get this idea that you're really going to effort hard and make a great believable case. You start and get like 5 points in and you're like... fuck this and you end it. Her case on MLB ends with a post from Jul 21 cause she loaded that ISO up and started figuring out how each post could be potentially scummy, and then got tired of it (or is legit sick, doesn't matter why) and stopped.

When has Marci ever in this game made a case? I don't remember any.

This isn't real analysis. This is an end game level attempt at trying to present as townie against their chosen target and just saying fuck it.

There's no way you just assume BB is town here if you're town!OTH and you believe the best use of your time is to case MLB's ISO from 2 months ago to find scum and are satisfied with your conclusion after you've read 64 total posts in a 237 post ISO.

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It's just a mistake.

Killing you for wifom is fine if scum!oth (though not optimal, scum!oth should have just killed mlb) but they gotta attack bb here. Attacking mlb is mind boggling. Maybe gamma comes in and attacks bb.

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Please stand by.

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here we go!