Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[mastina]

Hi I am a mason.

[mastina]

VOTE: catboi

VOTE: catboi

VOTE: Datisi
I'm the only catboy here

VOTE: Dannflor

I am a cat.

Town.

VOTE: catboi

VOTE: Something_Smart

Town?

[mastina]

VOTE: bell
Choo choo!

Town?

oh no i missed the fun part

Cephrir.

I'm a stray. Someone adopt me.

I know nothing about Warrior cats whatsoever. Sup.

Scum?

[mastina]

I don't understand what the problem is. I saw him being the only one to post in the pt and was like "Is there anybody in the thread" to have fun.
Was going to keep playing dumb but i guess it's better not?

Town.

[mastina]

Ego

Scum?

[mastina]

So guys, i'm trying to change my font and playstyle for this game. Tell me if you like it. <3

VOTE: NorwegianboyEE.

I like it, it makes revealing your true colors quite easy.

[mastina]

BE A HERO, LEARN FIRE PREVENTION
VOTE: NORWEGIANBOY
OUR LEADER (CHARLOUX) SEEMS ALIGNED WITH STARCLAN BECAUSE OF THEIR POSTS IN OUR CLAN PT

Town.

[mastina]

And I don't think confirming role + alignment rules out clan confusion; it's usually easy to tell alignment from coloring + lack of partners/obvious scum info, even if you don't fully understand the factions or the wincon.

It may be obvious from the colouring + lack of partners that your role pm is one belonging to the uninformed majority, but if you were in possession of such, you would also have (and I assume it's acceptable to quote directly now it is given publicly) the wincon given to starclan -

"You and all other members of the protectors of StarClan win when all Dark Forest cats have been eliminated."

- which is patently clear on the issue bell expressed confusion about.

That's my hypothesis - that scum!bell was trying to replicate that selfmeta of 'derping about set up early game and asking the most basic questions that are usually also “town slippy”' without access to a critical piece of information - how the wincon was presented to starclan; and thus failing to realise there was zero, none, nada ambiguity there to 'town slip' over. I don't buy the post-sample explanation that starclan!bell thought "dark forest cats" was some larger descriptor for two or more scum clans without also believing that starclan was some larger descriptor for the town clans, and thus windclan, thunderclan, etc to be pure; and that's never going to pass review. It's nonsensical.

I can easily see town!SS realising this situation has only arisen because of the lack of a publicly posted sample PM, and thus suffer some sort of second-hand guilt on behalf of the dark forest for having a member outed so early over what is arguably a mod mistake, but why defend him now?

Town?

[mastina]

CHANGE MISTYX FROM SUS TO TRUSTWORTHY

Hard to say for sure but I think I vibe with that read.

[mastina]

You know, all of these catvatars are a bit distracting because i can't differentiate the players anymore.

VOTE: NorwegianboyEE

Scum!

[mastina]

Crap I wanted to get caught up tonight, but I'm running out of steam.

I'm sorry, I don't think I can.

I got half-way, to page 9, but I don't think I can get everything done tonight, sorry.

I'll leave you with an incomplete readslist then.
LOCKTOWN:
{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor}
{Charloux, Bell, fireisredsir, Marashu}
TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Mixtyx, Frozen Angel*, Val89, PenguinPower}


{Cephrir}

{KittyTacky, Shiro, Shiidaji}
{Something_Smart}

SCUM?
{Alisae}

PROBABLY SCUM:
{Titus}

SCUM:
{NorwegianboyEE}

Sorry it's not great, but I need to eat/sleep/take meds. Been neglecting those things for two hours tbh.

Will finish when I can, hopefully tomorrow.

[mastina]

Why don’t you see it fit now that you have sus reads would be the next question to that response.

I AM NOT EXACTLY CONVINCED THAT NORWEGIABOY IS TRUSTWORTHY OR EVEN NULL

This. I'm pretty sure Norwee's scum, here.

Dare I say it?

...I have a soulread on Norwee as being scum here.

[mastina]

I think I need to see a larger volume of fire posts before I can really read him effectively
I do think he's like a little more performative as scum than town and so I liked him posting takes first and only explaining them when asked

Since Datisi's Cafe is officially over, I can say this feels night/day different from fire's scumplay there, so I'm quite comfortable with fire as town.

[mastina]

norwee wind tribe

Oh so definitely scum then.

Norwee's not town here.

[mastina]

VOTE: Charloux
Don't like the response to my stray claim on multiple levels.

Hot take:
We should eliminate Titus regardless of her alignment.

If she's scum, then she'll be dead scum.

If she's town, well, she's a player who

loves

private topics so with her lacking PTs, she's going to be miserable the entire time so an elimination would put her out of her misery.

[mastina]

Anyone who thinks there is exactly 1 scum in each neighborhood should mathematically be voting Titus.

To be fair: I realize it's level-0 thinking to believe that there's one scum in each neighborhood and a final scum outside of all.

...But I'm scumreading Titus anyway, so while it might be level-0 thinking, I happen to think that Titus is scum in spite of it being a cliche for the out-of-all-neighborhoods player to be scum.

Basically, it's a case of:
I know what the expected standard is.
I know that Ydrasse isn't going to just default to the standard.
However, in spite of knowing that the standard isn't just going to be a default run as a given...

...Whatever the means, whatever the method, I believe that it just so happens that the player outside the neighborhoods is scum (thus matching the expected standard through sheer coincidence). How they ended up there is likely some form of unfortunate-for-the-scum RNG, but I still think it is.

So unironically, I DO support a Titus elimination.

It's just that I also happen to think that Norwee is scum, much much much stronger than I think Titus is.

[mastina]

Do we all agree that is a stupid assumption now? Great!

What comes to you mind when u read Val's ISO[/quote]Tbh Val was very hard to get a read on.
I loosely think that 167 demonstrates a town thought process unlikely to come from scum, but the rest of Val's posts are just ~*(static)*~ that I can't find a read on.

Val looks to be trying to be productive, Val looks to be trying to be helpful to the town, Val's content I feel is trying to be pro-town, but aside from 167, nothing looks clearly town or clearly scum-powertowning. 167 is enough to push to town, but it's far from my most confident townread.

[mastina]

What comes to you mind when u read Val's ISO

Tbh Val was very hard to get a read on.
I loosely think that 167 demonstrates a town thought process unlikely to come from scum, but the rest of Val's posts are just ~*(static)*~ that I can't find a read on.

Val looks to be trying to be productive, Val looks to be trying to be helpful to the town, Val's content I feel is trying to be pro-town, but aside from 167, nothing looks clearly town or clearly scum-powertowning. 167 is enough to push to town, but it's far from my most confident townread.

Quote fix'd.

[mastina]

pedit: Ya penguin time flies by really quickly lmfao. Thanks!!!

Hot take:
Either Titus is town,
OR we do have an all-town clan. (Technically, not mutually exclusive, if there's two clans with two scum or even one clan with three, but for this point, I only need one of the above to be true.)

Because Alisae and Norwee are both scum from the same clan.

[mastina]

Those takes were given after Alisea asked Norwee, and only Norwee, very leading questions that amounted to "What is your read on X player based on posts Y and Z", which as you can see from the conclusion given by themselves, focused on a very narrow subset of the player base; and I was very surprised to see Alisea give Norwee a townread on that basis, and I asked Norwee if he thought he was in agreement with Alisea. To be fair, the answer Norwee gave was 'yes', but I made no secret of the fact I had my suspicions there, and to see that quickly manifest in main thread as a case against me is to say the least.
VOTE: Alisea

Oh nevermind about having difficulty reading Val.

Val's town here and Alisae and Norwee ARE scum together.

The interactions being talked about are 100% scum-scum, done to be performative to hood-mates.

I prefer Norwee first tho since my scumread there's stronger.

But at this stage, I'd vote any of:
Norwee > Alisae ~

>

Titus.

[mastina]

Alisae's reaction to Val's push btw is also a scum reaction.

It's an over-reaction to Val's 276. Val's 276 was a good point/post, but Alisae's push there is, essentially, scum having a snap-reaction that is too strong/too forced.

It's not quite a panic-OMGUS, but the best description I can give is that it is a panic-OMGUS, for lack of a better term.

Basically, it's too on the nose for Alisae's comfort--e knows what the scumteam is, and knowing what the scumteam is, there is a strong reaction to react strongly when someone gets too close to the truth on that scumteam, especially after e put so much work into laying good foundations in scum-scum interactions meant to look good. To have said scum-scum interactions called such from a newer player elicited a reaction that Alisae will regret like five ten minutes later, because it's a rusty-Alisae still getting into the swing of things not accounting for shifted site meta and new blood with the new blood calling em out. With the read from Val leaking the scumness more openly, Alisae's reaction is an instant one to a perceived immediate threat.

Now, I get that everything I am saying relies on the assumption of Alisae-Norwee being scum from the getgo, but let me explain why I don't think Alisae does that reaction

unless

it's Alisae and Norwee as scum-scum.

If Alisae is town, then Val's post doesn't elicit a reaction at all. It can maybe have a reaction of "this is a misrep and I believe it to be a scum misrep"--MAYBE. But that's a level 0 take that I don't think a town-Alisae actually has. A town-Alisae would see the post and know it to be wrong, but knowing it to be wrong, would then analyze the why, and not instantly come to the conclusion of Val being scum. Could Alisae come to that conclusion as town? Yes, but not so instantly and with such strength.

The strength of Alisae's scumread on Val is overblown, in a way that I feel indicates that Val caught Alisae and Norwee's interaction being scum-scum for what it is.

[mastina]

Rookie scum mistake to overreact to me expression my feelings on a fos.
Like do you self-consciously believe that a case was like coming onto you??? That's what I think is going on in the head of scum!you.
I did not vote you, and I asked Ceph "is this actually scum, or am I just reading everything as scummy"
But I am advancing a case on you???

Like, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Newer player rands wolf.
Newer player starts to feel like they are being suspected
Newer player overeacts and attacks the person in response to suspecting them
The person in return attacks them harder because the newer player is acting unnatural and unreasonably to the attacker.

i don't really understand what about this makes val scum tbh
like this narrative is one that could have happened if he was scum, but what makes you think that's most likely? what about it is not believable as coming from town?

Exactly, fire.

You'd know exactly the sort of reaction I think this is and why it's scum from you having made this sort of reaction when you were scum.

I think Alisae is scum here for similar reasons I thought your reaction to my claim made you scum. It's not

identical

, but it's

similar

--Alisae's reaction is overblown. Alisae's reaction is disproportionate. Alisae's reaction was a snap-reaction that was fairly OMGUSy. Sound familiar to you?

Because to me those are the hallmarks of scum that made a somewhat-panicked snap-decision to react to a town player hitting a nerve.

A town-Alisae WOULD put thought into how it could come from town. A town-Alisae would know the narrative was wrong, but not know that it came from scum. The instant judgement of Val being scum is incredibly damning for Alisae as being Alisae as scum having made a bit of an impulsive reaction that e wouldn't have made as town.

Yes, I know Alisae is impulsive regardless of alignment.
Yes, I know Alisae is reactive regardless of alignment.
Yes, I know Alisae can make OMGUSy moves as town.
Yes, I know Alisae can make snap-decisions and instantly come to a conclusion.

But there's a difference between 'can', and 'would'.

I believe a town-Alisae would not have the impulse to overreact to Val and instantly pivot to the OMGUSy push there. A town-Alisae might react to it, but not in the way e did.

[mastina]

I don’t want to believe Alisae is scum becauve they’ve been so helpful to me and seemed genuinely trying to solve me.

On the Norwee side of things I'm like 97.5% certain that this is Norwee's style of interacting with scumbuddies, especially when given a neighborhood with them. I swear that I've seen this verbatim from Norwee when Norwee was scum talking about a scumbuddy, but not seen once when Norwee was town.

I wish I could remember where so I could track it down, but like: I am

very

sure about this.

[mastina]

Those takes were given after Alisea asked Norwee, and only Norwee, very leading questions that amounted to "What is your read on X player based on posts Y and Z", which as you can see from the conclusion given by themselves, focused on a very narrow subset of the player base; and I was very surprised to see Alisea give Norwee a townread on that basis, and I asked Norwee if he thought he was in agreement with Alisea. To be fair, the answer Norwee gave was 'yes', but I made no secret of the fact I had my suspicions there, and to see that quickly manifest in main thread as a case against me is to say the least.
VOTE: Alisea

Oh nevermind about having difficulty reading Val.

Val's town here and Alisae and Norwee ARE scum together.

The interactions being talked about are 100% scum-scum, done to be performative to hood-mates.

I prefer Norwee first tho since my scumread there's stronger.

But at this stage, I'd vote any of:
Norwee > Alisae ~

>

Titus.

Alisae's reaction to Val's push btw is also a scum reaction.

It's an over-reaction to Val's 276. Val's 276 was a good point/post, but Alisae's push there is, essentially, scum having a snap-reaction that is too strong/too forced.

It's not quite a panic-OMGUS, but the best description I can give is that it is a panic-OMGUS, for lack of a better term.

Basically, it's too on the nose for Alisae's comfort--e knows what the scumteam is, and knowing what the scumteam is, there is a strong reaction to react strongly when someone gets too close to the truth on that scumteam, especially after e put so much work into laying good foundations in scum-scum interactions meant to look good. To have said scum-scum interactions called such from a newer player elicited a reaction that Alisae will regret like five ten minutes later, because it's a rusty-Alisae still getting into the swing of things not accounting for shifted site meta and new blood with the new blood calling em out. With the read from Val leaking the scumness more openly, Alisae's reaction is an instant one to a perceived immediate threat.

Now, I get that everything I am saying relies on the assumption of Alisae-Norwee being scum from the getgo, but let me explain why I don't think Alisae does that reaction

unless

it's Alisae and Norwee as scum-scum.

If Alisae is town, then Val's post doesn't elicit a reaction at all. It can maybe have a reaction of "this is a misrep and I believe it to be a scum misrep"--MAYBE. But that's a level 0 take that I don't think a town-Alisae actually has. A town-Alisae would see the post and know it to be wrong, but knowing it to be wrong, would then analyze the why, and not instantly come to the conclusion of Val being scum. Could Alisae come to that conclusion as town? Yes, but not so instantly and with such strength.

The strength of Alisae's scumread on Val is overblown, in a way that I feel indicates that Val caught Alisae and Norwee's interaction being scum-scum for what it is.

Rookie scum mistake to overreact to me expression my feelings on a fos.
Like do you self-consciously believe that a case was like coming onto you??? That's what I think is going on in the head of scum!you.
I did not vote you, and I asked Ceph "is this actually scum, or am I just reading everything as scummy"
But I am advancing a case on you???

Like, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Newer player rands wolf.
Newer player starts to feel like they are being suspected
Newer player overeacts and attacks the person in response to suspecting them
The person in return attacks them harder because the newer player is acting unnatural and unreasonably to the attacker.

i don't really understand what about this makes val scum tbh
like this narrative is one that could have happened if he was scum, but what makes you think that's most likely? what about it is not believable as coming from town?

Exactly, fire.

You'd know exactly the sort of reaction I think this is and why it's scum from you having made this sort of reaction when you were scum.

I think Alisae is scum here for similar reasons I thought your reaction to my claim made you scum. It's not

identical

, but it's

similar

--Alisae's reaction is overblown. Alisae's reaction is disproportionate. Alisae's reaction was a snap-reaction that was fairly OMGUSy. Sound familiar to you?

Because to me those are the hallmarks of scum that made a somewhat-panicked snap-decision to react to a town player hitting a nerve.

A town-Alisae WOULD put thought into how it could come from town. A town-Alisae would know the narrative was wrong, but not know that it came from scum. The instant judgement of Val being scum is incredibly damning for Alisae as being Alisae as scum having made a bit of an impulsive reaction that e wouldn't have made as town.

Yes, I know Alisae is impulsive regardless of alignment.
Yes, I know Alisae is reactive regardless of alignment.
Yes, I know Alisae can make OMGUSy moves as town.
Yes, I know Alisae can make snap-decisions and instantly come to a conclusion.

But there's a difference between 'can', and 'would'.

I believe a town-Alisae would not have the impulse to overreact to Val and instantly pivot to the OMGUSy push there. A town-Alisae might react to it, but not in the way e did.

I don’t want to believe Alisae is scum becauve they’ve been so helpful to me and seemed genuinely trying to solve me.

On the Norwee side of things I'm like 97.5% certain that this is Norwee's style of interacting with scumbuddies, especially when given a neighborhood with them. I swear that I've seen this verbatim from Norwee when Norwee was scum talking about a scumbuddy, but not seen once when Norwee was town.

I wish I could remember where so I could track it down, but like: I am

very

sure about this.

Pagetopping these and gathering them all into one post.

[mastina]

Scarrdbear who is in your group that you know of?

MARASHU, PENGUIN, CHARLOUX AND MYSELF. YOURS?

Yaknow what?

...I actually buy that as an all-town group.

I think Marashu is town.
I think Charloux is town.
PenguinPower is hard to say for

sure

, but loosely I do like what he's done so far in this game and overall think he's town.
And you, I also think are town.

So like.

I can buy all of you as town. It does depend on a fifth member I guess.

[mastina]

Ok nvm it’s unanimous.
Our 4th member is Shiro.

Shiro town by proxy of Norwee and Alisae being scum and therefore unlikely to have three scum in one clan.

[mastina]

we have 5 so i think yours are just missing people so far
(me / bell / penguin / fire / ceph)

Alright so Ceph will be freaked out by this but I actually think that

this

is an all-town clan.

I THINK that I'm comfortable locktowning Bell, here. (Need to keep reading to be sure the good things keep coming from Bell.)

I'm pretty damn sure this is fire as town.

It's a bit weak, but I think Mistyx is town, too.

Cephrir is Cephrir and the dude never rands town in games I'm in (except when he does), so like: he's always scum. Except when, randomly, he actually isn't. And even in the rare games he isn't, I always scumread him. He's

never

town to me, but this game, I actually think he is???

I get that Ceph plays the same way regardless of his alignment. He shows the exact same things as town/scum and uses the exact same process as town/scum and has similar reads/reasoning as town/scum so like. He should be impossible to really read accurately, but like. I think he's town???

It's like, only a 51% read. As in, genuinely, 51% town to 49% scum. His content still looks like scum to me (the 49%), but I think in spite of it looking like scum, he's actually town?

So that group I feel has a very high chance of actually being all-town.

[mastina]

we have 5 so i think yours are just missing people so far
(me / bell / penguin / fire / ceph)

?

FA not you
i literally checked idk how i got that wrong

Oh, still think it's all town because Frozen Angel is Town*, with an asterisk, to me, this game.

(The asterisk is because Frozen Angel has a night/day difference in her town/scum metas. I'm 100% sure that if you know which meta is which, you can have a guaranteed read on her. I

think

that this is the town meta, but I'm not sure. I COULD be getting it backwards, thinking her scum meta is her town meta and thinking her town meta is her scum meta, but I THINK that I am remembering which is which correctly and that this is the town meta for her.)

[mastina]

This has the potential to be a really dumb read but Norwee seems relaxed, which I think is townie?

I've seen Norwee as relaxed-town.

This ain't it.

[mastina]

It is possible, albeit unilikely, that a hood is pure.

Actually, statistically speaking, a hood being pure is the

most

likely rand.

For no clan to have 0 scum requires that each scum gets distributed to a different spot, with the final either doubling up on one or being the outsider.

In other words, it's basically guaranteed that there IS a pure clan, and it is likely the Mistyx/Bell/fire/Cephrir/FA clan.

Also, Alisae and Norwee are scum in the same clan, so......

[mastina]

(Another obligation came up so can't finish catchup now, but will later tonight--circa five hours from now.)

[mastina]

ok I think I have parsed this post.

townreads bell for 24. (Honestly, not bad)
31 gives him "bad vibes." Guy goes on to say it comes from the formatting of the post (You cannot make up how he described what it is he did to describe what he felt about the formatting/spacing)
likes 41
doesn't agree w/ 51
52 i just don't get what is going on with his commentary here at all??? (I think this guy is reading into RVS stuff way too much)
likes 61
doesn't like 73 (???????????????)
said 99 was tmi (??????????????)
liked dann
liked 112
likes fa feels like she is explaining her push well (whatever the fuck that means)
says ceph could be scum for being snippy (Isn't that just how Ceph is. I mean can't blame him for not knowing)
likes 204
doesn't like 234
likes misty

I'm willing to buy Shiidaji as town just by virtue of you/Norwee being scum.

[mastina]

All your scumreads are like… people i think are town.

Of course you do, you need to say that to not have the scum be eliminated!

[mastina]

i think that might be a good approach for us in general for game starts.

I mean, you're Ceph.

You're always scum. Even when you're not.

(By which I mean you rand scum a disproportionate amount of times and even when you rand town, you still look like scum, this game included. Your style is just naturally one which I scumread.)

I, very weakly, have a townread on you in spite of that, but it genuinely is only like 1% and like...pure gut. I don't have any explanation for it, I'm trying. I just legit don't know.

I’m starting to wonder if it’s possible to develop a read on penguin early.

Yup!
Sure is!

Now, whether the read is

accurate

, on the other hand......


Loosely tho, I lean town--which is a safe bet since statistically speaking, more town than scum. So when in doubt, town.

[mastina]

@Mastina: are you a mason?

Obviously.

[mastina]

where did this suddenly come from. also titus can be scum or town regardless of that hypothesis so its kinda weird to tie those things together

there are 5 scum and 4 neighborhoods so in order to maintain a belief in exactly 1 scum in every hood you must conclude that titus is scum.
i do not think anyone should be assuming 1 scum in each hood. it is probably random.

For the record I realize it is stupid to townread this since objectively speaking this should be a nai post that Ceph would make as either alignment, but.

I am still townreading it??? I don't know why, but like. Gut says it's town in spite of objectively having no reason to be.

[mastina]

VOTE: val

Datisi's never scum here btw.

The vote's wrong since it's on town.

But Datisi is confscum for this series of posting and the vote.

[mastina]

Oh. I’m fine killing norwe if mastina is 97.5% certain they’re scum.
VOTE: Norwe

I am!

It's not 100% because I

can

be wrong on Norwee, but I just

really

don't think I AM.

their explanation of it afterwards made more sense to me tho

eir reaction was covering eir ass up.

After you make an impulsive post as scum that you know was a mistake, you need to work on making it appear to not have been one. So any competent scum player (and Alisae is competent) is going to create a narrative where their scum post is made to not be a scum post.

That doesn't stop it from having been a scum post.

Alisae saw the push, impulsively decided the best course of action to deal with Val was to push back and use eir experience to win the 1v1, and later created the justification for it.

Me and Alisae teamed is some real level 0 thinking Mastina. You’re better than that.

???
There's literally nothing in your play that is "basic" enough to suggest an Alisae-Norwee team. Literally all of your play is designed to appear to not be scumbuddies. That's the opposite of level-0; that's you going out of your way to avoid appearing to be level 0, which is ironically more damning than if you actually

were

displaying level-0 scumplay.

If you and Alisae actually pulled level-0 scumplay it would ironically be a 1000-iq scumplay as too-competent-to-do-this-therefore-they-didn't (except you did).
But you actively went out of your way to

avoid

the level-0 scumplay which ironically makes it more damning than if you just did it, because the avoidance of level 0 scumplay is more indicative of being scumbuddies than actually displaying level 0 scumplay would be.

[mastina]

but his play here seems more or less like NQN2, where I tried to push him when I was scum.

I was in NQN2, and this is not the Norwee from that game. It's not even remotely close. I don't know what kind of catnip you're imbibing to think that this is even remotely close to the Norwee from that game. It's literally night/day different between the two.

[mastina]

mildly unfortunate that i started thinking mastina makes a surprising amount of sense this game and then she started not-really-townreading me which makes this take seem ally-motivated

Tbh the most scum aspect of your 619 id you seeing your post as being perceived as pocketing me,
rather than you thinking that I am pocketing you.
(Basically, you having the thought that you liking me is scum-indicative for you, rather than thinking it is scum-indicative for me.)

But ironically, it is the very fact that it is not the expected town-oriented thought,
Which makes me think you're actually town here?

I think my townread on you has increased to like...55% at this point or so.

It's just a vibe. I dunno why, but you just ~

feel

~ town to me for some reason.

[mastina]

I think there's a world of difference between the scenario from datisi's cafe that you're talking about and this game. In that game fire's reaction was to a

faked guilty

which carries a significant degree of weight to it - people are very likely to vote you for it and you can't really ignore it. Scum panicking and overreacting in that scenario is very understandable. By comparison a singular vote on Day 1 carries not much weight at all - it wasn't like val's case was particularly likely to get alisae killed on its own so I don't believe they would overreact in such a panicky way as scum. I

would

buy it if this was being done by a more raw [...] player who would be more likely to feel threatened by minor suspicion.

That's the thing about Alisae tho. Of all the players on-site, I would call Alisae one of THE most (if not THE most) "raw" player. Probably different definition of 'raw' than what you meant, but the description of raw is VERY apt for Alisae as a player.

Alisae's playstyle is very, very raw.
Alisae's personality is very, very raw.
Alisae is incredibly raw as a person. Eir very core essence is attuned to that word, pretty much. Raw, pure, just...kinda sorta primal, I guess?

It's a style that has a lot of emotions and snap-judgements to it, making a lot of decisions on the fly. That's not to say scum-Alisae doesn't plan; e does. It's just that scum-Alisae also adapts plans on the fly, and can discard weeks' worth of planning on an impulse of thinking there is a better plan, or thinking there is a need to pivot. Alisae has been the type of player to surrender in a game that was very winnable, just because on a whim e didn't think it was winnable.

Alisae is thus, a player I fully expect to overreact as scum. Alisae has a tendency to be a doomsayer as scum, thinking the worse. So if Alisae saw a correct solve from Val with Val sharing the reasons for why...Alisae is exactly the kind of player who

would

panic and overreact. Especially since Alisae is fresh back from a year-long hiatus. Alisae hasn't had the time to regain eir composure as either alignment. How do you think a fresh-off-year-long-retirement Alisae reacts to eir gambit with Norwee falling apart within 24 hours of the first day starting?

Someone who has had a year-long hiatus from games on this site, entering the game with a scum plan, and seeing a town player immediately demolish that scum plan and nail them for it?

That's

exactly

the type of scenario to elicit an overreaction from Alisae.

Alisae is an experienced scum player, but Alisae is incredibly emotional, impulsive, and importantly: rusty. Alisae is unfamiliar with meta changes, unfamiliar with player changes, and wouldn't know what would/wouldn't work as scum. E would rely on eir past experience, but wouldn't know if that past experience would actually work, having to hope that it was timeless and never growing obsolete.
And then, with those old tactics revealed spectacularly by Val--Alisae as the incredibly emotional impulsive player e is would react to that. Alisae hasn't had the time to adjust back to scumplay on this site, so Alisae seeing emselves

immediately

pegged would, in fact: elicit a panicked response. Because they would instantly think they need to go into damage control mode and hard-force. Alisae when cornered as scum does exactly that: suddenly push HARD against their accuser, in order to hope that they can get the lim there, and after the fact, dissipate the pressure at a later time.

[mastina]

VOTE: val

Datisi's never scum here btw.

The vote's wrong since it's on town.

But Datisi is conftown for this series of posting and the vote.

confscum or conftown and why

Conftown. Datisi's a major wagon, but Datisi has no interest in appeasing the players voting him, or being survivalistic, or really trying to actually fight--instead, he's sorting and pushing for who he thinks is scum.

The Val vote has basically no momentum, but the Datisi wagon does--a Val vote does Datisi no favors.

[mastina]

LOCKTOWN:
{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Marashu, Mixtyx, Val89}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I

almost

put in the above tier, so the separation between them is

very

small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}
{PenguinPower}

???:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

{KittyTacky}


SCUM?
{Titus}

PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}
{Alisae}

SCUM:
{NorwegianboyEE}


{Norwee, Alisae, Something_Smart} feels like a solid 3/5.

But I admit,
{Norwee, Alisae, Something_Smart, Titus, KittyTacky} (default team of five) feels a bit too easy to be the right solve.
I think it's a good enough starting point for D1 tho.

I don't see the top tier of locktown ever flipping scum here, ever, at this point. (Unless I got FA meta backwards. I don't think I did tho.)
Second tier of locktown I feel very very strongly about being town. I don't see them flipping scum, either.

So like.

That leaves ten slots for five scum.
Genuinely, a 50% shot at hitting scum on D1.

And three of those ten I think are town.

Which brings it down to 5/7.

Even without the reasons for them being scum, the reasons for others to be town just being that much higher means the PoE is outright

lethal

here.

[mastina]

you would have miscleared datisi in like every scum game he's played recently then, thats p shallow reasoning

My explanation might be flawed to make it seem that way but it very much is not. Datisi is town for two dozen reasons. Everything he is doing is town. It just is never scum here.

[mastina]

{Norwee, Alisae, Something_Smart} feels like a solid 3/5..

Btw I hold to this being a true scumbloc no matter what to be honest.

I don't have nearly the same level of certainty about elsewhere.

But I individually think this is Norwee's scumgame;
I individually think this is Alisae's scumgame;
I think that Norwee and Alisae are very specifically scum together;
Something_Smart isn't directly tied to them per se but I individually do think he's scum (sadly) and that his stances fit as scum with Norwee and Alisae.

I also scumread Titus but I'm honestly not sure if she fits as scum with them, it might be possible? But something about saying {Alisae, Norwee, Something_Smart, Titus} as 4/5 feels too easy, feels too surface-level, feels too shallow to be real. I don't have any better ideas, mind you, but better ideas can come from future day phases as we progress.

[mastina]

Yo, sorry I can't post tonight, am half an hour late for bed, will do so tomorrow. (I am quite angry due to work eating up all of today because guess who had to work a double shift today??? Eating up 10 hours of the day for work??? I am already going to get only 5.5 hours of sleep at most so like. I legit can't post here. Or, well. I could--it'd just be a very very very bad idea to. )

I usually prefer to include some kind of content in my prod dodge promises for more, but I am genuinely so out of time that I can't even do that. I need to catch up on page 27 onwards tomorrow; see you then (unless more bullshit like today gets in the way).

[mastina]

Okay so like.

I promised a catchup today both in the PT and the game thread.

I ran out of time, sorry.

I'll have more time tomorrow, so I'll try again then, but in the mean time, I DO have thread content this time!

{Alisae, Norwee} is lockscum.
{Alisae, Norwee, KittyTacky} has a high chance of being all scum.
{Alisae, Norwee, Something_Smart} has a high chance of being all scum.

{Alisae, Norwee, KittyTacky, Something_Smart} has a decent chance of being all scum.

I have good reasons for this but explaining will require me to either prioritize this game first or not run out of time. (Might do that tomorrow? I feel bad for neglecting game two days in a row, maybe longer.)

[mastina]

I'm late for leaving for work but I have to say: any mentions of me not doing things should perhaps pay attention to how I was last active on Friday, I take Saturdays off, and then I got blindsided by a double-shift on Sunday that instead of leaving me with 8 hours of free time left me with only two and that for the last two days I have done literally everything I can to stay afloat but I'm not there yet because I genuinely haven't had the time thanks to the work double-shift.

But that content IS coming. Today I should have more time.

[mastina]

Btw I have been in a bad mood since Saturday (technically Friday night and onward) and haven't recovered since then. I was in a bad mood Sunday for even more obvious reasons, and my bad mood continued into yesterday.

Today is no different. I am still in a bad mood, worsened by being a hot mess. I was 40 minutes late waking up, still didn't get enough sleep in spite of that, had poor quality sleep, dealt with a wardrobe malfunction, left home without eating breakfast, was 20 minutes late for work, didn’t feed two very hungry cats, and more.

So, if I come across as overly hostile, my apologies. Best I can hope for is that this isn’t going to come across as a personal attack. I normally wouldn't post during times that I'm this angry since they risk getting me removed from the game and/or banned, but I genuinely have no choice but to.

On that note:
I realize that scumastina is well-known for falling behind.
But anyone trying to use that to shade me can fuck off. There's VERY obvious reasons for my inactivity here and struggling to stay up to date. Those factors happen regardless of my alignment and are thus NAI because they are rl-related.

What IS alignment indicative is my RESPONSE to the rl shit.
As scum, I literally do nothing when rl shit hits. The reasons vary, the results are near-universal: literally doing nothing.
And don't you fucking dare try to say, "but mastina, you're doing nothing right now".
I very clearly am not doing LITERALLY nothing.
When I say scumastina does literally nothing, I mean LITERALLY NOTHING BUT PROD DODGING, zero content in the prodges. Literally. Zero.

You can say I'm not doing MUCH right now, but that "not much" is still higher than the absolute zero which is the actual scumastina tell. I, very clearly, am trying.

On that note, more about my FA read in this game:
My FA read in this game is very similar to my StD read in the two concurrent games, Pokémon Gen1+2 and Gypyx's AI Upick.
I knew that StD had a night/day difference between his town play and his scumplay, but I didn’t remember which was which.
I could tell that he was playing to his meta, but I initially didn’t have the time to sort which was which. Like FA is this game, I had a fairly high level of confidence in remembering the tell differentiating his towngame and scumgame. But I didn’t have the time to research which was which, until much much later.

So while I knew that there was a night/day difference between his alignments, I didn't know for SURE which was which. My read on him was only about 90%, until I had the time to do the research.

That took weeks for me to find the time to do, but once I finally DID do the research, the 90% jumped to 100%.

Same story here.
I know FA has a night/day difference between her towngame and scumgame, same way StD did back then.
I am pretty sure that I know which is which, at 90%, same as back then for StD.
But I haven't had the time to do the research YET. It took weeks, closer to MONTHS, for me to find the time to do that for StD.

And here, it hasn't been weeks closer to months for FA, now, has it?
So, I WILL do the research. When I have the time. I just haven't yet, because, y'know.
Too much rl shit.

I'm still confident that this is the town half for FA tho.

[mastina]

All this was going on before Shiidaji had revealed themselves as a member, and Shiro had made a single contentless post. I guess it's possible scum are informed about the neighbourhoods in a way I'm not considering, but it seems a scum-pairing would not know their audience at the time they (immediately) launched into that act.

Scum would know the setup immediately from having membership in as little as two hoods. It doesn't take a genius to see a neighborhood that's "thunder clan", see a different one for a different clan, and then figure out that there's going to be four total clans. And if there's four total clans, membership would be loosely equal between them.

That, aside from the fact that the fewer are in a 'hood, the better for the theater.

I'm trying to see the whole thing through the lens of it being scum-theatre for the rest of the clans benefit and I don't see it.

I do, and I have a perfect game to show why, when I have the time to actually find the spots I want to show.

For instance, May I point you to eir posting starting here?

At that time there were--and this part is going to blow your mind--five? players in that PT. With three of them as scum.

Alisae literally did scum theater for

two town players

.

And then after the MathBlade elimination, it gets even better.

It became three town players to two scum players.
Alisae(A2), QuantumLeap scum.
Bulbazak, Titus, Ginngie town. (Creature too, I think?) (It was 5 after Ginngie died. Creature got swapped out but was still town brought in.)

Literally two scum three town in a neighborhood.

If you think Alisae wouldn't do theater, e absolutely would.

[mastina]

If your view on this game is predicated on a Norwee-Alisae pairing, I would at least have a think about what it means if they weren't. I'm pretty sure about this one.

I'm pretty sure you're wrong since you are a newer player and, pardon the language but I can't think of a more polite way to word it:
More gullible.

Alisae pulled off the very thing e is doing with Norwee in a game with

veteran

players. Some of the best on the site at the time, Alisae managed to fool for the majority of the game. And e had QuantumLeap, eir scumbuddy, as town in part of that deception.

Pulling it off on a comparative rookie lacking the same experience is, comparatively, easy for Alisae.

[mastina]

One of

my abilities is listed as Apprentice. It is a passive that states I am not allowed to use abilities until I am promoted.

Btw.

Y'all know that Alisae is implying e has more than one ability here, right?

Which alignment usually has more abilities?

Obviously it's not a given/not guaranteed.

But y'know.

It's still something I'm calling a scumslip.

[mastina]

It was mainly snark and confusion on my end; I did think that it might be a PT slip but figured that scum would be more careful. I hadn't considered whether or not the scum PT would be open during pre-game.

I was too busy trying to figure out if I was misreading the title of the Clan PT.

yeah, ... what?
what do you mean with the bold

You seem to underestimate my levels of self-doubt. My process was refresh PT and confirm there were no other posts, look at the title at the top, look at the banner in the PT, go back to my role PM to make sure it matched the PT and that I wasn't assigned to the wrong one, go back to the main thread and make sure it said ThunderClan, go to the PT Directory and confirm it said ThunderClan, go back into it, refresh a couple more times, and re-read the main thread again.

How the fuck is anyone scumreading Marashu again???

Why the fuck is there a Marashu wagon when this is pretty damn obviously town?

Like, Marashu is hard-spewed town here.

[mastina]

LOCKTOWN:
{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Marashu, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I

almost

put in the above tier, so the separation between them is

very

small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}

[mastina]

If Alisae was self-conscious about having lot of abilities as scum wouldn’t they just not mention it right out from the gate?

That's why it's called a scumslip. Alisae wouldn't think about the language "one of" implies and wouldn't realize it gave away having multiple.

[mastina]

{Charloux, Marashu, Mixtyx, Val89}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

WHY DID YOU BOTHER TO PUT THIS HERE?

Because tiers are important?

[mastina]

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}

Admittedly, I need to verify the FA read. (Working on it. Well I say that, but I'm not right now. I

will

be tho.)

Admittedly, the townreads are a bit stale (tho I still think Ceph is town anyway).

Admittedly, I have too few scumreads.

But like.

My locktown are never flipping scum here, ever.

And genuinely, with that many locktown the game is effectively an autosolve.

[mastina]

Excluding the above, its appears to me that Mastina has come up with the theory based on my second-hand description of the interactions between the two in Windclan.

No, it's largely from individually scumreading Norwee, individually scumreading Alisae, Norwee and Alisae hard-defending each other, and having seen first-hand Alisae use the exact tactic e is using in this game, in a prior game where e was scum.

All of that

before

the secondhand description, which was just what seals the deal.

[mastina]

VOTE: Marashu

When Marashu flips town remember this post.

And how we could've flipped scum by voting Norwee out instead.

[mastina]

You’re not just an clown, you’re the entire circus.

Btw Norwee's scumslipping here by saying this while voting me--

Scum clown isn't a thing.

I can't be a clown and be scum.

I can be only one of the two.

Norwee's vote on me says scum, Norwee's statement I am a clown gives the true read: he knows I'm town.

[mastina]

mastina do you not have multiple abilities

I have one ability.

Clans aren't an ability. Everyone has that. It's not a PR if everyone has it. Saying a neighborhood is an ability in a game where everyone has it, is basically like saying a Vanilla Townie with the power of their voice and vote, is an ability. It's literally something even a VT would have.

Being an apprentice aren't an ability. That's a restriction on the abilities. A gate.

I have only one ability. Gated by being an apprentice. But only the one.

[mastina]

Scum clown isn't a thing.

oh come on you don't believe this

(I don't know how to respond to this without getting banned; every term I want to get would get me at minimum a warning but:)

Yes, I do.

There. is. no. such. thing. as. a. scum. clown. Clowns are specifically town, because you don't call scum clowns--you call them scum. You can call them incompetent scum. You can call them bad scum. You can call them flailing scum. You can call them laughably bad scum. You can call them all sorts of things.

But not a scum clown. That's not a thing.

Clown is, specifically, a town insult. It is insulting a player's capabilities as town by saying that they are a clown.
Players don't call scum, clown.

They can go, "you're either scum, or a clown"!
That's literally a phrase that people speak.

But they don't say "you're a clown" while THINKING someone is scum.
That's something that is a scumslip. Scum do it disproportionately often. Like, 90+% of the time, often. Genuinely one of the strongest scumtells, scumtell level of scumtell.

It's not semantics.

It's basic psychology.

You don't call someone who you think is scum, making posts that you think are bad, a clown.
You call someone who you think is scum, making posts that you think are bad, scum.
You call someone who you think is town, making posts that you think are bad, a clown.

The two do not mix. Half of one and half of the other is thus, a perspective slip.

[mastina]

Btw for the record, I don’t really have the time nor energy to write a detailed wall HERE right now.
But.
I would strongly encourage people to do a site search of my posts (just the first two or three pages should tell you what you need to know), because I have just...not done anything but mafia for nearly a full week. Playing, not commenting.

What that means, well.
I don’t feel like fully explaining it here, too much effort to word the idea in terms of THIS game, but like.

Keeping it short:
I'm giving up on trying to explain my reads. Maybe even defending the town in them. I just don’t have it in me right now.

But that said.
Uniquely, I am not giving up on my reads.

Not the majority of them, at least.

Because I'm right, I know I'm right, I've been right all along, I'll be VINDICATED sooner or later.

But while most of my reads are good, I just give up on explaining them.

I'll go over which reads are which when I getore free time, maybe next down.

[mastina]

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

[mastina]

What's with me and getting big important posts on 73s.

I want thar near a page top.

[mastina]

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Pagetop.

[mastina]

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

[mastina]

yea ok thinking about it more i really don't like the "ive put too much energy into mafia lately so im not going to give reasons for my reads" immediately followed by a huge wall that is just reiterating what her reads are. like the energy used to make that post could have been put towards something useful instead but she went out of her way to excuse herself from doing that and then still put the energy in anyway

Well you don't understand the way my brain works. When I said I was done giving energy, I meant it. I'm done being mastina. I can't pretend to be mastina anymore. So I'm done acting like I am.

So instead of spending time being mastina, I decided to just. Not bother.

And then ADHD + mania (instead of depression) kicked in and I wanted to post something that was a partial override of the promise to not effort, but not a full override because it was actually much easier to write than normal. It was also done at work--energy at work is entirely different from energy at home.

Still, tho. There's liberation because I've felt the release of not having to be me anymore.
I realize you won't understand what I'm saying, but that's because you didn't actually do the thing I said you should do, now, did you?
I told you that if you checked my posts onsite in the last week, you'd be able to understand. (For that matter, my blog posts in the last week, too.) You didn't actually look at that, now, did you? So of course you wouldn't understand.

I don't feel like typing up the full version of a post on this but yes. I am done being mastina. The last week broke me, and it wasn't until I gave up on being mastina that I felt good. In this game I didn't describe this as well as I should have, I admit, but I'm not really going to bother with the details.

What you need to know right now is that I genuinely don't care.
I am

aware

of the wagon on me.
I don't

care

about the wagon on me.
The town on it have shit reasons, and there's plenty of scum on it, but honestly I am done putting in the energy to care.

So instead, let me reiterate:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

I'm NEVER wrong on any of these.

I guarantee you.

I can soulread Norwee and Norwee is scum this game.

I guarantee you that all of Datisi, Dannflor, and catboi are town.
I guarantee you that FA is town, too, albeit not to the same tier as the holy trinity is.

And given the above guarantees, between my read on em and eir stances over the game, you'll be able to

eventually

see that Alisae is scum, too.

But I'm done fighting for the reads in spite of being more sure than ever in the above being true.

[mastina]

Alisae - scum
catboi - town
Charloux - town
Datisi - town
NorwegianboyEE - scum
Bell - town
KittyTacky - scum?
Dannflor - town
Mistyx - town
SCRRRDBEAR - town?
Titus - scum?
fireisredsir - town
mastina - town
Frozen Angel - town
Cephrir - town
Shiro - town?
Something_Smart - scum
Val89 - town
T3 - town?
PenguinPower - scum?

(Actual list, refer to this.)

[mastina]

My meta on Mastina is basically:
Will Mastina have a meltdown?
Y: Scum.
N: Town.

For the record, I've never had a meltdown as scum (I'm sure you'll say this is wrong and have a scumgame in mind where you think I did, but I guarantee you that whatever game you are thinking of, that was not in fact an actual scum meltdown because I know my meta and know I've never had a meltdown as scum), so this meta is literally backwards, but it's honestly not worth fighting--my flip will show your meta's wrong, so like. Not worth bothering with it.

What IS worth bothering with is making sure people know this:

My read on Norwee is not a tunnel.
My read on Norwee is not confirmation bias.

I'm done pretending to be fake-confident in reads I'm not. I'm done making exaggerated percentages. I'm done bullshitting confidence where none really exists.

Norwee is scum because I am the only player onsite who can soulread him. And while I don't always get the chance to soulread him (it takes special circumstances to activate), once I do, I am never wrong.

And Norwee IS scum this game.

You may not believe me.
You may insist that I was confbiased.
But no. I know Norwee. WHY I know him, fucked if I know. But I do. This is Norwee's scumgame.

[mastina]

On the other hand this is one of the rare moments where Mastina is either going to walk up and correct you

I mean yeah, normally I would be correcting you.

There's not a single good vote on me. That's, what, nine votes I should be correcting the reasoning of?

But honestly you don't fucking know how done I am and I can't be damned to type it up, but I am in fact done with being mastina so like. I'm done bothering with that. Normally, I would correct you, but normally I'd be mastina. Since I'm done being mastina, that means instead I'll let my flip do the talking for me, and to reiterate.

If you want to eliminate all the scum this game, at some point you need to eliminate Norwee. Norwee IS scum here.

Since I'm done pretending to be mastina I'm done pretending to have strength in reads I don't have, so when I say Norwee is scum here.

I mean it:
Norwee IS scum here.

I might actually be more sure Norwee is scum than I am that Datisi/Dann/catboi are town. (Which is a hard feat since I am genuinely with no paranoia, 100% sure all three of them are town.)

[mastina]

bell is hard town for this page remind me to explain later

I know the reason and I agree with it. Dann is also hard-town for having thought of the logic in the first place (which I agree with), but you already knew both of these things so it doesn't really change anything, I just feel like this post needs to be reiterated for how good/accurate it is.

wow this day has really died huh

Generally speaking, that happens when I'm no longer around to post.

I'm never the top poster in a game but I'm always top-50% and usually top-25%. And my posts are what spurn those with a higher post count to actually

have

that higher post count. Without me, the whole thing falls apart and game-wide activity plummets. Literally every single game I'm in, there's a night/day difference in activity before I die versus after I die. It's one of the main reasons I've liked being mastina, because mastina has the effect of making games more proactive overall.

But this week broke me so I can't be mastina anymore. It's unfortunate, since I

am

accurate in my strongest reads.

There's a lot of reads I could be wrong on, here. Anything from mid-confidence and below, I could be wrong on.
I

could

be wrong on Charloux (although I don't think I am).
I

could

be wrong on Cephrir.

I

could

be wrong with my Something_Smart scumread. (I mean, he IS voting Norwee, and Norwee IS scum. So like, if he's scum he's voting scum. But the vote is a positive look for him.)
I

could

be wrong on KittyTacky (to be honest I actually like KittyTacky's posts and they all look town to me, it's just that I've zero confidence in the townread there).
I

could

be wrong about SCRRRDBEAR being town (tho they do look town to me).
I

could

be wrong about reads on Shiro and/or Shiidaji/T3.
I

could

be wrong about PenguinPower (who I've lost reads on altogether pretty much).
I

could

be wrong even on my Titus scumread (even tho I think I'm right).

There's a lot I

could

be wrong about.

But my strongest reads, the ones I am most confident in, I KNOW I'm right on.
This is the most sure I have been in my reads on Norwee (scum), Dannflor (town), Datisi (town), and catboi (town). I'm sure on FA being town. And my locktown/towncore is never scum. {Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx} are all town here.
My true confidence might be 80-90%, but if I were faking being mastina that 80-90% would be 98-100%. So that should give a metric for those reads.

I'm NOT wrong in any of them.

I guarantee you I'm right on literally all of those reads.

There's a lot of reads I could be wrong about.
But Norwee scum, Dann/Datisi/catboi town, FA town, locktown/towncore town, I'm NOT wrong about. Period.

It'll be your choice on whether to believe me or not but you can look back at these posts at any point during the game. (I mean, you

won't

, because players never look at eliminated town players' reads/reasons. But you theoretically can, and SHOULD. Just sayin'.)
The more and more I am shown to be right about, the more and more you should trust me in the remaining amount that I say I have no doubt in.

[mastina]

If you want a counterwagon to mastina I'm open to hearing options because I

also

feel like people are voting her more to being annoyed by her than actually finding her scummy but we need to be realistic here

Realistically speaking, your only option for a scumflip D1 is Norwee.

And, technically speaking, he still has a wagon there! So like, it IS doable.

You just won't, because in spite of me knowing that my soulread of Norwee is right, I've zero drive to actually convince you of it.

Like, I'm right. I know I'm right. But you won't believe me and I really don't care to try and convince you.

[mastina]

Good, we’re about to miseliminate Mastina, just as planned.

That would be Alisae's plan, yes.

Since Alisae wants to protect Norwee, and they know I know Norwee is scum and that I can soulread Norwee and that my accurate read on Norwee is never going away so the only way to get rid of it is for the elimination to go through D1.

Plan never would've worked if I hadn't had a hell week, but sadly, because I did, it will. One bad week from me was all it took for this to go from scummie-level town performance from me to garbage-tier.

But like--while the middle of the road reads of mine are middle of the road and thus, liable to failure...

...My strongest reads

are

right, and in particular, my Norwee scumread is a threat to the scum since the scum know I can soulread Norwee.

[mastina]

idk i did go read mastina's most recent scum game and i don't think this is really accurate, she's not like incapable of progression as scum. but i think there she was a lot less willing to go into detail on reasoning or respond to new posts and stuff. and i think the level to which she's doing that here is closer to that than it is to her play in datisi's cafe as town

It should be noted that that was both a multiball game (I could get real read progression, not needing to fake it), and also I had a negative utility role so I knew from the onset that I needed to die for my team to stand a chance (so I deliberately didn't want to go into too much detail, as to avoid spewing players town after I flipped).

What a lot of folks don't seem to get is that there's more than one mastina scumgame style (but most of them have in common: "find the least-effort way to easiest generate a scum win", the shortest path to victory, doing the least amount necessary, and in general, not relying on myself to carry), and there's more than one town mastina style, and that both are affected by real life factors, and that being affected by those real life factors doesn't change those alignments, it just changes the representation of them. And most people get those affected-by-rl representations wrong.

It's not really worth going into detail tho, because my flip will do the talking for me in demonstrating once more that basically everyone who claims to know my meta, is bullshitting, because if they

did

know my meta they would know I was town.

What IS worth talking about?

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

I'm NEVER wrong on any of these.

I guarantee you.

I can soulread Norwee and Norwee is scum this game.

I guarantee you that all of Datisi, Dannflor, and catboi are town.
I guarantee you that FA is town, too, albeit not to the same tier as the holy trinity is.

And given the above guarantees, between my read on em and eir stances over the game, you'll be able to

eventually

see that Alisae is scum, too.

But I'm done fighting for the reads in spite of being more sure than ever in the above being true.

Pagetopping these!

[mastina]

Mastina has already claimed in the hood btw.

My biggest regret right now because it means I can't actually go "fuck that" to the idea of claiming since I literally already did, a fullclaim from the onset pretty much. (Less than 48 hours into the game.) My neighborhood can claim my role publicly at literally any time, meaning that I can't

actually

say "you want my claim, you flip me" or similar.

Alas.

Is the consequence of the early claim in there, but oh well.

Consider this an honorary "fuck claiming" tho. If I hadn't claimed already in the neighborhood, I wouldn't be claiming at all. But since I can't undo having claimed in there, my role is known if it's really that big of a deal.

I honestly don't care to tho.

The only things that are important are that I am town, Norwee is scum, Datisi/Dannflor/catboi are town, FA is town, and more locktown core ({Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}) is town.
My flip will prove one of these true, the rest will follow with time, too.

[mastina]

i might even just want to flip her because it's clear the mastina-norwee situation is not going to change so might as well actually like, resolve it early so that we can get into normal mafia after it.

By which you mean flip me and ignore Norwee after that, letting him win the game as scum unless someone somewhere down the line develops a separate Norwee scumread and gets all the postgame credit because nobody remembers my posts after I'm elimmed so the living player gets the credit and I don't.

But like.

Norwee is scum. It doesn't matter what you think. It doesn't matter if you think this is a tunnel. It's not. I can soulread Norwee, and he IS scum.

You're quite correct that I'm not letting go of this if I live--because I'm not giving up on the guaranteed scum lim. Norwee is scum, and any elimination not-Norwee has a lower chance of hitting scum. So voting Norwee is voting scum.

[mastina]

The only thing i will add is that i don't think Mastina would be of any help until Norwegian is flipped; And i don't see it happening today, tomorrow and possibly further down the line.

Oh I'm plenty help, you're just not willing to accept it.

Norwee is lockscum, but I have more reads than Norwee as scum.

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

Spoiler: reasons

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

All of the reads I feel strongly about are worth listening to and working with me on.

[mastina]

can anyone tell me WHY mastina thinks norwee is scum? other than the "my read on him is better than yours", that's not a reason

I do!

I genuinely can soulread Norwee.

But beyond policy, there's literally dozens of reasons Norwee's scum.

They're in my iso both in and out of the neighborhood.

And there's more beyond the ones I've stated.

I

could

write them out but when I said I don't feel like it I meant that.

Doesn't make it any less true tho.

i

t's very clear mastina isn't going to actually try to help us understand why norwee is scum.

You can control-F me for "norwe" (leave out the extra e to pick up instances of gianboyEE since while I mostly use Norwee, I do occasionally use the full government name), both in the game thread and out of the game thread.

I haven't tried to help you by showing

all

the reasons Norwee is scum.

Don't pretend I've shown none.

I have.

You just think those reasons are bad.

But the read is right.

Reasoning be damned.

I don't give a fuck how good you think your reasons are for Norwee being town and how much you think I have poor reasons.

That I have a soulread is the only reason that matters.

Norwee IS scum this game.

I realize "I have a soulread" isn't something that can convince people.
I realize it is asking for trust you're unwilling to give me.

But mark my words: I'm

not

wrong here.

I know what I'm fucking talking about on Norwee.

Why, I don't know. I genuinely don't have this skill for any other player. It literally is just, randomly, just him. And not even consistently. Just randomly, after some random criteria is met: BAM. Soulread. And he met those criteria this game, so I can tell he is scum.

[mastina]

so
you realize that saying "i have a soulread" won't convince me, or anyone really
but instead of at least a tldr of all the dozen reasons that norwee is scum
you spend time typing "norwee is scum, i'm not wrong" 50 times

Quite!

I told you I wasn't going to bother with the time/effort anymore. It's easier for me to state the read 50 times and the strongest reason, than it is for me to explain the weaker/lesser reasons--which aren't worth the effort.

The weaker/lesser reasons, people will just disagree with anyway. Find ways to say they aren't true. Not worth it.

It IS worth it to make sure you can't forget the strongest reason tho.

And the strongest reason is that I can soulread Norwee and I soulread Norwee as scum. He is the only player I can soulread, and even I can't always do it, but when I do, I am NEVER wrong, and Norwee is scum this game.

You don't believe me, but he is. Period. Logic doesn't matter. Your read being different than mine doesn't matter. I realize it isn't convincing you, but that doesn't matter, either. What matters is that I am not wrong. Norwee is scum.
I feel like most of my reads have quite good reasons to be right.
But none of them as strongly as Norwee, because my read on Norwee is genuinely as if I have access to his role PM and can see it. I can

see

the red role PM from him. I can

see

him having a scum role and a scum PT link within. I can

see

it, because it's true. And that is genuinely the strongest reason for him being scum.

Everything else is secondary to that.

[mastina]

Hypothetically speaking: if a cop were to clear norwegian right now, what would you think then?

That the cop was his scumbuddy. Outside chance, maybe cop got the wrong result.

But I KNOW my Soulread isn't wrong.

There's faked confidence reads, which I realize makes it harder to push real confidence reads.

And then there's soulreads that are real confidence.

This is not a tunnel. This is not confirmation bias. This is truth. Norwee is scum this game. My read on him is better than a cop result and effectively is one.

[mastina]

Ok so i read Mastina’s whole drivel just to see if there was anything important and there was not.
Confirming it to be pointless so not any more poor souls will have to endure reading it.

There was plenty important there. Here let me show people again.

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

[mastina]

I think Mastina would reevaluate their read of Norwe here if they were town.

You don't understand what a soulread is.

*I*

am not the one who needs to reevaluate my Norwee read.

*I*

have the

correct

read on him. Norwee is scum here. Period. End of discussion.

Nothing you do or say will change his alignment here. He is scum. You might not accept that, but it's the truth. The endgame will show it.

It's the players with

townreads

on Norwee who need to reevaluate their Norwee reads.

A soulread is a read that

cannot

be wrong because you are literally staring into their soul, seeing their role PM. I can see Norwee's alignment this game and he is scum.