FFVII Mafia: Over

[CarnCarn]

Hi all, I should be replacing Westbrook; I have his role PM from the mod. Will post game-related thoughts when mod confirms I can.
I did a full read thru of the game about a week back, so I'm going to go back and review the more recent stuff.

[CarnCarn]

Mod Note: Replacing Westbrook_Owns_You

OK, cleared to post by the mod. I'll post about the three players with the most votes against so far (CML, ABR, and TM, I believe). If anyone has any questions for Westbrook, please post them and I'll try to answer them. I'll

Unvote

, in case Westbrook was voting anyone.

First, CML. I'm not sure what to make of him. What's he got against him is wanting to avoid the ABR/xtoxm issue and lynch Zac. I don't really understand why that's a scummy move, especially since Zac put xtoxom on L-1 with NO REASON!

FoS:Zac

. And that person turned up town... even if he was a pretty bad player. If that's a good enough reason to lynch a townie, then might as well lynch ABR on the same grounds.

Speaking of ABR:

Tony, if ABR is scum, what do you think is the best explanation for no Cid counterclaim?

I would think that, if he is lying about being Cid, and there is a real Cid out there, then they're probably not countering because their role is too powerful to reveal to scum.
What I don't like about ABR is that his play was just terrible, and he keeps trying to argue that it was good. It got a townie lynched. armlx has said that this is putting too much blame on ABR for the lynch, but ABR himself has said that he thought he needed to do it to "push xtoxm over the cliff" (since people apparently were too hesitant to lynch a claimed day-cop).
ABR wanted to lynch someone (who ended up being town) for fake-claiming daycop; when the same argument is made against him, he thinks he's somehow different because he apparently does this all the time.
One of the things I found really puzzling about ABR was what he wrote in 516 (all the way back on page 21, and never really brought up by anyone, AFAIK):

Counter-claimed ? I haven't even claimed yet.

What does he mean? Hasn't he claimed Cid?
I think his whole argument of "I would never do that as scum" really borders on WIFOM, even if he's got a history of it in the past. Like in the stock market, past performance is never a guarantee of future returns.

So finally TM.
I think the main thing people are jumping on TM for is this:

If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best. In which case, he would still be our best lynch.

I don't know what to think of it. MBL asks a good question about how he would know that anyone is definately town. One possibility is that he was a Mason with xtoxm, but that doesn't seem to make sense here. I don't think it was a scum slip; if it was, it would have been really stupid. Why would anyone make a definate claim about someone's alignment on Day 1 unless they knew for sure, and they themselves weren't scum to begin with? I'll give TM the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't just a stupid slip up, although I'd appreciate if you could explain this quote again or link to the reply you mention in 817.

Other thoughts: armlx seems kinda scummy for basically acting as ABR's defense attorney, although he might just be putting too much stock into the historical ABR Gambit argument. I'm pretty much neutral about everyone else, for now. No firm opinions about alignment, though I have an idea about who's been helpful so far to town.

Overall, I think the arguments against CML and TM being scum are pretty weak, and ABR should really do the town a favor and at least apologize. lol
If I had to vote for someone it would be ABR for being a complete hypocrite.

[CarnCarn]

Unvote: iamusername

Vote: XToxm

[/i]

This was Zac (406), and he was blatantly bandwagoning. I just realized he was replaced, so

FoS: Natirasha

instead.

No reason given. Not even an attempt. That's pretty obviously anti-town behavior. Especially since xtoxm turned town.

As for why someone would want to avoid lynching either you or xtoxm. When I was doing my read thru, I never really thought xtoxm was scum. I was doubtful of his daycop claim (that is a hugely powerful role, and apparently rarely used in games), but he was dead on about his role. It never seemed like he was lying about his role and he had plenty of flavor to back up his claim. I know this is getting into the hypothetical, but I would not have voted xtoxm. If he didn't get lynched, he probably would have been night actioned up the wazzoo.

Using the same reasoning, I wouldn't have voted you either, because I would have doubted xtoxm's daycop ability. I keep getting a scummy vibe from you for assuming that everyone believed xtoxm's claim and it was clearly an either you or him lynch. I can't speak for CML's rationale, but this is how I would have seen it.

Right now, IGMEOY ABR, Natirasha, armlx.

[CarnCarn]

Again, I've explained how ABR is a case of extenuating circumstances. Like how pro-town players are supposed to use logic and be active, but you don't lynch DGB/Kscope/K7/MafiaSSK D1 every game.

You seem pretty certain that xtoxm was the correct lynch D1, even though he was town.

[CarnCarn]

I'm surprised so many people think xtoxm was the correct lynch, even in retrospect (in a quick review back, I see that armlx, Cephrir, and Natirasha all agreed on that).
He was obviously lying about the daycop claim. Why would anyone with that powerful ability investigate in the random stage and make themselves an obvious target on D1?
His lying didn't mean he was scum, though. When asked for role and flavor info, he gave it accurately. I don't think he would have been able to do so if he was scum and just given Bugenhagen as a safeclaim (the flavor, I mean). This is why I wouldn't have voted him because his flavor info suggested he wasn't lying about his alignment, even if he was lying about his role (which is not automatically anti-town; in fact, I can see situations when it would be very much protown to lie about one's role).
Yes, I know the person I replaced, Westbrook, voted xtoxm, but I wouldn't have (sorry xtoxm, if you're out there reading this).
So to armlx: I doubt the scum really expected xtoxm to turn up scum.

ABR has provided little flavor info (something about jenovian capsules or something, and I don't know if that fits with his Cid claim; I'm not a FF expert/fan if you can't tell).

[CarnCarn]

CarnCarn, what flavor are you talking about? The whole cells thing or w/e that was based off ABR's false claim?

Yeah... I went back and reread that post (241/243, page 10). It was based off his fake-claim:

In the aftermath of the airship battle where the Sierra is severely damaged, cid uses his knowledge of high-tier technology to build a special scope that can detect creatures with abnormal levels of mako energy (jenova cells?) in their bloodstream. He can only use this once a day.*

I don't think he provided any flavor for his real claim today, although I guess he is still claiming Cid.
Actually I'm not even sure he is still claiming Cid, based off his post #516. Hopefully he will explain.

[CarnCarn]

No, I am the real Cid. I do want to win, you know.

If I had to fake-claim as scum and out a power role I'd claim Cloud daycop of Vincent vig.

No Yosarian, I would have admitted I lied on day 2, claiming the ABR Gambit.

So that is 531. What did he mean by the last line of 516 ("Counter claimed? I haven't even claimed yet."), when he had clearly claimed Cid, in the same post no less?

[CarnCarn]

Yes, but not twice in a row, when a liar lies to lynch another liar. What if another person lied? Then we would lose.

CarnCarn stop role-fishing.

So.. everyone who lies is innocent now?
Rolefishing? Are you Cid or not? And what do you mean by "you haven't even claimed yet" (post 516)? I'm not suggesting you share your abilities.

With 6 days to the deadline do the non voters (4 of you i believe there are and i am too lazy to look at who it is) feel they have any read on someone to place their vote at? I would hate to see the 6 days drag out with little to no discussion.

Right now, I think the evidence points towards ABR, but TM needs to answer the questions about his xtoxm/paranoid cop thing. I don't think CML has said anything that is really a scum-tell. This doesn't mean CML isn't scum; I'm neutral towards CML. Plus, anyone who didn't vote xtoxm D1 (e.g., CML, wolframnhart) gets a little bit of leeway in my book.

[CarnCarn]

So the point of this story is that you do not know what my role is, and you do not need to know what my role is. Maybe Cid is somebody else. This does not matter to you. Your questions seem to be a last ditch effort to harvest more data before the deadline falls for you to make an informed killing tonight. As I am at low risk of being slain today, your questions are to be regarded with suspicion.

I don't think you're at low risk; with MBL's vote on you, you're at 5. Theoretically, all it takes is 2 votes for you to be in the lead, with deadline a week away. Right now, if it were deadline day my vote would be for you.
If you don't want to explain yourself any further, fine. That only adds to the list of reasons why I find you scummy.

lol and I'm too damn stubborn for my own good anyway. I won't claim no matter what today.

You fake-claimed and got a townie lynched. Normally, that by itself would merit some explanation. You even said that part of your gambit would be to explain that you lied about your fake-claim. Well, you said you lied and your explanation is that it fits your play-style.
You pursued a LAL strategy on D1 with xtoxm. Your explanation for why it's all of a sudden a bad idea today is that you are obvtown based on your play-style.
I don't know about everyone else, but I don't think it's a good idea to clear someone of doing something wrong simply because they do it all the time.
Even though xtoxm was lying, he eventually provided role and flavor info that strongly suggested he was town. We've yet to see anything from you, and must have known that you would be the biggest suspicion coming into D2. I'm not rolefishing when I ask a player who did something that incredibly confused the town (something scum would love to do), to give some concrete evidence why we should believe they are protown (I've had enough of this meta business, for now).

[CarnCarn]

EBWOP to spare the confusion, if any.

Even though xtoxm was lying, he eventually provided role and flavor info that strongly suggested he was town. We've yet to see anything from you, and

you

must have known that you would be the biggest suspicion coming into D2. I'm not rolefishing when I ask a player who did something that incredibly confused the town (something scum would love to do), to give some concrete evidence why we should believe they are protown (I've had enough of this meta business, for now).

[CarnCarn]

At the end of the day though, the real Cid is likely well aware that he has an obviously Town Aligned character and probably has a role too important to risk on the back of a claim from someone who could well be fishing for his scum-mates.

+1

[CarnCarn]

Again, haven't we already discussed how role important in video game != role importance in mafia game in a well designed theme?

Yes, but I think perhaps the wrong conclusion was reached. I agree with cd that the lynch and NKs showed that role important in game does = role importance in mafia (or alignment, at the very least).

[CarnCarn]

CallMeLiam!
Yosarian2!
Ghostwriter!
CarnCarn!

Why are you not voting?

Fine. I've made it pretty clear who I am leaning towards ATM

Vote: ABR

Subject to change to TM if he doesn't provide some better explanation to my (and others') questions before the deadline.

[CarnCarn]

You are drawing a conclusion from a sample size of 1 relevant dead person.

No... we know the alignments and basic roles of 4 dead players:

Xtoxm,

Bugenhagen the Vanilla Townie

,

lynched day one.

iLord,

Reno the Turk Goon

, run through and shot Night One.
MisterStrife,

Barret the Watcher

, shot Night One.
Forbiddanlight,

Dio the Vanilla Townie

, shot Night One.

Barret, Dio, and Bugenhagen make sense as town, and Reno makes sense as part of a Turk mafia group. So, how is this not enough evidence to say that role names are an indication of alignment?

[CarnCarn]

armlx:

I'm not talking about alignment. I'm talking about role POWER. That's the only reason a potential real Cid wouldn't counter claim.

Then we're pretty much on the same page. Don't you agree though about alignment?

See, I look at your post and see reasons why ABR is a good lynch even if town. That's not what we want. And kloud already noted your flip flop on policy lynches.

When I read his post above, to me he is giving reasons why ABR would NOT be town (i.e., the actions he's taken are so far from what a townsperson would take). I don't get the feeling that he just wants to lynch ABR for revenge or policy, etc.

Where did ABR retract his Cid claim?

Maybe retract is too strong a word, but he did seem to backtrack about being Cid:

So the point of this story is that you do not know what my role is, and you do not need to know what my role is. Maybe Cid is somebody else. This does not matter to you.

[CarnCarn]

As I believe, like I always do with large games unless told otherwise, there are two groups, I'm sure that at least one, if not both, groups are after his lynch, and are either actively supporting it, or have/plan to sneak onto it, with little to no backing reasoning.

Little to no backing reasoning? Seriously.

After it was forced out of him and asked for repeatedly.

And? How is that a bad thing? That's normal isn't it. Even if you're vanilla, confirming yourself as such just helps the scum narrow down their night hitlist.

1. A lot of mods give safeclaim flavor.
2. He was making it up anyway so obviously he would be able to as scum.

1. Really? The games I've read through (admittedly not many), when there are safeclaims they are usually just names without flavor.
2. He did not make up his flavor. He made up his role and how it works.

This doesn't make any sense to me at all; IMO not having voted Xtoxm or been suspicious of him implies either 1) Gullibility or 2) Inside knowledge.

Well, suspicious sure because his role power claim was outrageous. The more I think about it, ABR countering with the same claim basically made some people think that there really could be a day cop, or two in fact.
But, like I said, it all goes back to his flavor info.

[CarnCarn]

Yes they are the actions a town ABR would take. Check out all my games. I do this every time, bro. Every. Time. In Doctor Who mafia, I claimed the MAIN character of the series, possibly outing the biggest, pimpest power role the town had because I thought I had a winning strategy. I didn't. These are the actions of a town A.B.R\.

Well, I've gotta ask then. How successful is your gambit, usually, if it seems to get you lynched? As a townie, one of the ways you can help town is to simply stay alive
If your gambit isn't highly successful, why do you keep playing it?

[CarnCarn]

In case anyone was wondering:
CallMeLiam - 8
Albert B. Rampage - 8
TonyMontana - 3

So... that's it? You don't feel like you need to explain any further?

Doesn't look like a Tony lynch is going to happen today, so

Unvote, Vote: CallMeLiam.

Opportunistic wagon hopping, anyone?

FoS: IAAUN

[CarnCarn]

Um...what? We're coming up to a deadline here; why would you attack someone for changing wagons in order to try to secure a lynch? You Liam's scumbuddy or something ?

There's still 5 days, first of all. I'm still waiting for Tony to explain himself, and if he doesn't, I will strongly consider changing my vote to him.
And someone

will

get lynched (that's the point of deadline, after all). What I find strange about IAAUN's vote change is that it looked like he was just piling on to a wagon, without really explaining why he was choosing CML over ABR (or someone else).
I've already explained why I think the CML is not as strong as the ABR or TM ones.

[CarnCarn]

If you want to know why I'm picking CML over ABR, go back to earlier in the day when I

started

the CML wagon. If I hadn't picked up on Tony's slip while rereading, I'd still be the first name on that list.

And someone

will

get lynched (that's the point of deadline, after all).

9. Each day will have a four week deadline.

At the end of that deadline, If majority has not been reached, a no lynch will occur.

The town may decide to No Lynch. A majority of votes is needed.

I'd also like to have a little bit of a time window available for re-evaluation in case one of the prospective lynchees decides to claim a power role.

Ahh, cool. I get it. Forgot majority was required for lynch in this game, even for deadline. That explains your vote change much better (

unFoS

).

[CarnCarn]

If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best. In which case, he would still be our best lynch.

I don't think it was a scum slip; if it was, it would have been really stupid. Why would anyone make a definate claim about someone's alignment on Day 1 unless they knew for sure, and they themselves weren't scum to begin with? I'll give TM the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't just a stupid slip up, although I'd appreciate if you could explain this quote again or link to the reply you mention in 817.

If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best. In which case, he would still be our best lynch.

There's no way to know anyone else's role in a game unless you're on the same team or a cop (this excludes traitors and insane cops). Which makes me think
And

Vote: Tony

Which makes me think you didnt read my reply.

This.

[CarnCarn]

Why did you think that Armlx had a meta that xtoxm lied as town?

The feeling I got from reading the early parts of D1 was that xtoxm isn't a fan of armlx, in general:

Oh yeh, that's why I stopped playing games with Arlmx.

I shall merely attepmt to ignore him.

For everyone else, what he says is a complete lie. Don't listen to him. Anyway, go ahead and lynch me.

I'm quite positive armlx is scum.

Lynch him tomorrow.

It wouldn't surprise me if that feeling was mutual. Also:

And he's just pulled this argument out of nowhere i've never even seen before and trying to say it's a reason i'm scum.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7687

Game for reference.....

[CarnCarn]

That doesn't really answer the question.

Oh I see. Yeah, I never thought armlx had meta that said xtoxm lies as town (only for ABR). The games he references are xtoxm as scum.

[CarnCarn]

Boy, this is a close election.
Right now, I have ABR (9), CML (8), TM (3), and 2 no votes. Looks like the TM voters will be the swing votes (as of right now, unless there is a rapid flight to someone else).

[CarnCarn]

As far as the write up is concerned, he wasn't protected so he wasn't targetted either.

Uh, explain? How do you know/infer this? He ASKED for night protection at the end of D1 (maybe jokingly, but still).

[CarnCarn]

EBWOP, there is only 1 person not voting, I think (GhostWriter).

[CarnCarn]

Might be newbish naivety but I'd have thought it would have been in the write up - I'm learning games get played rather differently here than where I'm used to though - so I could be wrong.

I've never seen non-kill night actions reported by mods in-game (except after the end, anyway).

[CarnCarn]

Well, why would anyone protect him after he clearly lied about his day-cop result? Also, if he's town, I'm pretty sure scum would try to keep him around as a lynch target today.
That said, I still think that he's probably alive because he's scum.

[CarnCarn]

In retrospect, he might have gotten protection simply for his Cid claim, as you said, which is, as we are learning now, separate from his ability claim.

[CarnCarn]

Xtoxm would have killed armlx. If this guy was town, Xtoxm would die the next day guaranteed. 2 townie lynches.

Well, you got xtoxm lynched with a fake-guilty and he

was

a townie. No ifs. How is it not your fault if you get lynched now, according to your own argument?

[CarnCarn]

I honestly cannot see the sense in saying someone is worth lynching through the thought process of "They could be town, but who cares, let's waste a lynch on them anyway, have them flip town, and then allow our opponents a night to go have fun and kill people".

Well, I don't see the sense in encouraging blatantly anti-town play. The town has to work as a team to win, and Albert clearly fails to understand that basic concept:

Dude, I just want to win on my terms.

[CarnCarn]

I also don't see the sense in lynching someone for play that is clearly not scummy.

Don't argue about how lying is scummy in the abstract here BTW. This isn't the abstract.

See, I just don't get this. When someone has a history of doing scummy things as town, how can you ever be sure that they won't abuse this reputation if they are actually scum? It would be too tempting to use that reputation to absolutely crush unsuspecting townies. Simple game theory would suggest that you can't trust that type of play in the long run, nor should the liars expect it to work in the long run.
Now, this is just one specific case, as you say, and apparently should be treated specially. I could understand a bit if all we had was ABR fake-claiming, but he's done a lot of other scummy things that I don't think he would have a definate history of. For example, does he always shift role claims (like am I Cid or am I not?), does he always try to guide night protection, and is he always so evasive about his role after screwing the town with a mislynch?
There's a lot of scummy stuff that I'm just not sure he would have a meta for.

[CarnCarn]

I would normally say more claims, but this is the only scenario where claim at L-2 is not expected.

Also, this. Why not?

[CarnCarn]

I never really saw a shift in his claim beyond the obv not a cop issue.

You don't think anything of the "I may or may not be Cid now" and "I haven't even claimed yet", after clearly claiming Cid in the same post?

where did he guide doc protection?

Here:

DOC PROTECT PLZ.

Pretty obvious.

Why are you so adamant about ignoring the fact xtoxm in the vacuum of his meta was most likely scum if he was lying when referring to ABR "causing" a mislynch?

I've said before that I thought he was blatantly lying about his day-cop claim, for various reasons. His meta apparently points that he is scum when he lies. That was obviously not true in this game. Why are you so adamant about holding to ABR's meta if we just saw an example of meta failing in D1?
And ABR is still scummy because he clearly owes the town a lot more explanation about his role, given how anti-town his actions D1 were.

[CarnCarn]

And the performing of a lie, alongside his meta, in conjunction with his ethos, is a strong enough town case on him for me.

But it's not just that. There's a lot more scummy stuff that he's got against him other than just plain lying, probably more than both TM and CML combined...
I've mentioned these above in a reply to armlx. I think people are using his meta to justify slips that cannot be justified with it.

[CarnCarn]

What are the slips you are talking about?

For example, does he always shift role claims (like am I Cid or am I not?), does he always try to guide night protection, and is he always so evasive about his role after screwing the town with a mislynch?
There's a lot of scummy stuff that I'm just not sure he would have a meta for.

Here

@armlx: can you explain further on this:

I would normally say more claims, but this is the only scenario where claim at L-2 is not expected.

I would have thought the opposite.

[CarnCarn]

If I was not right, then the mafia would not target me in the first place, and no doctor would protect me.

Oh, I don't argue that the

mafia

wouldn't target you...

[CarnCarn]

ABR, there are other roles that would most certainly want to target you N1 for your fake-claim.

[CarnCarn]

GW, your post did not explain at all why ABR would ask night protection; I think the fact that he is still alive is proof he did get it.

[CarnCarn]

I'm actually kind of stunned that if we have a vigilante, they didn't knock Albert's block off last night.

I can really only see one legitimate explanation for that, and I've said it a couple times now, in more subtle ways.

I don't have to explain that part, he has already explained it now.

He certainly has not. His "explanation" takes us for fools...

[CarnCarn]

Why would he have been protected last night, after it was seen that he was not a cop, like he had claimed to be? I wouldn't have done it, would you? It's not taking you for fools, it's wondering why you haven't used common sense to get the obvious answer.

If he wasn't protected, I find it very hard for him to survive the night. Your obvious answer, if I'm thinking what you are, relies on probabilties that are quite low. He likely would have been the target of multiple NAs, and to avoid them all via roleblocks, etc. on N1 is getting into the highly improbable range.

[CarnCarn]

Not to mention that he may just be NK immune

[CarnCarn]

Y2, someone with a fake-guilty on a townie isn't the most obvious target for a vig N1?

[CarnCarn]

Oh, you're talking about a vig and not a scumkill now?

Well, I wouldn't be too surprised if hr got vigged, but we don't know if there is vig, and if there is, it could be one of the people who thinks he's not scum.

Yeah, I never considered mafia wanting to kill him, because it's obvious they could use him as a target today, if he's town/SK/Cult/etc., and if he's mafia, well it's pretty obvious why they wouldn't kill him...
I'm much more inclined to think the people protecting are the ones who don't think he's scum.

[CarnCarn]

Cavebear alert

[CarnCarn]

And CC, 10-10 is where you don't want a claim, as having both claim is pointless as odds are both aren't in danger of a lynch. The goal is to wait to see who gets pushed to claim.

Ah, I see. Although this may be another unique case. CML needs to claim now because he is at L-1, and ABR needs to make a case for why shouldn't be vig bait tonight (at least, I would think that would be in his benefit).

[CarnCarn]

While I do agree the CML case has substantial ground, I think the one against TM is slightly stronger. I will switch over a day or two before the deadline if the TM vote doesn't gain numbers, but I'd still like to see TM go. His is a genuine slip-up, or so it seems to me.

I'm not entirely sure what the case against me is to be honest.
Anyway

vote: ABR

His actions yesterday were decidedly unhelpful and his back-and-forth claiming, unclaiming, asking for protection and general bullshit look like someone trying to stay alive by any means necessary without helping the town in the least.

Can the mod prod CML; he hasn't posted since 919, on Friday, and is L-1.

[CarnCarn]

Cephrir, armlx, what would have changed your vote?

No one has provided any thoughts on why ABR would have survived N1; it seems everyone thinks that he wouldn't have gotten the doc protection he asked for.
I was hoping not to have to do this, but I think it is probably a reasonable time.

I am Cait Sith, JoAT.

Using my Slots ability, I/Westbrook targeted ABR N1. By chance, it should have been a kill, but appears not to have gone through. I don't know why it didn't go through. It's possible I/Westbrook was RB'd, but I find it odd that WB would have been targeted for a roleblock given his low activity.
I don't know if this means ABR got doc protect or he is some NK immune character (Godfather or SK). If he is the latter, the "DOC PROTECT PLZ" is the perfect cover for his ability. I don't know about everyone else, but Cephrir and armlx's last two posts sound like scum vouching for a partner.

Anyway, I didn't want to have to reveal myself, but I think it's now necessary to make a stronger case for the ABR lynch, although his blatant lying and general scummy activity should have been more than enough. I don't understand why so many people buy into the meta propaganda distributed by armlx et al., when the meta only applies to ONE of ABR's actions (fake-claiming), while there are other anti-town behaviors that have no basis in meta.

Not sure if this claim will change the minds of the scum driving the CML wagon, but hopefully the town will reconsider today's lynch.

[CarnCarn]

His play makes no sense as scum, as why would he choose now, and this early in the game, to ruin a long standing meta as strong as that?

I think MBL has put this belief to question. When someone knows how their own meta is perceived by others, they can manipulate around it. Even armlx has said above that it is only a null-tell, not a town tell.
The whole argument that ABR's meta = town is shaky.

[CarnCarn]

There is nothing indicating that he is scum, while we have the poor actions of Callmeliam to look back to - Trying to detour the lynch towards someone who made what looks like a newbie mistake rather than attempting to "Catch someone in a lie" when and if Armlx or Xtoxm turned up town.

I should have seen this earlier. CML tried to derail the lynch of someone who ended up town. What an obviously scummy thing to do! (/sarcasm)
People have mentioned this before as something against CML. Is this really the reason people are voting him? I doubt something this weak would draw 10/11 votes. Hopefully someone can better explain how this is at all a scum-tell against CML.

Now, as for why ABR is scummy. I've thought he was scummy even before I joined the game (I did a read through; it was probably about 35 pages when I joined), even after reading the arguments of his meta. After joining and learning my role, some of his posts hit me as especially suspicious. I like Yos2's SK argument very much in light of what I know about my N1 actions, and the low odds of a roleblock or doc protect (which I again believe was ABR's attempt to find a perfect cover, just in case xtoxm DID flip scum).
ABR, for being the most suspicious target D2 and for behaving in such blatantly anti-town fashion, has provided very little information about his own self, and yet people are willing to let it slide because of a meta argument (which is pretty weak, IMO; I've explained some of my reasons for it already). I find his non-commital to a role EXTREMELY scummy. If he knew he was likely to be taken out, why not claim one of the most powerful characters, Cid? If he's lucky, he might be able to out the real one. Or, of course, Cid as safeclaim, which has already been mentioned (I don't really like this explanation, though; it just seems unlikely that such a big character would only be a safeclaim in this game).

In any case, I find these reasons much more convincing to vote for ABR than the one you gave to vote for CML.

[CarnCarn]

Well I'm Cid. I'm a watcher. Flavor is my ship is crashed but I can use it at night to follow people. I targeted christinao drago last night and got no result.

Does this role/flavor make any sense with the theme? I'm don't know enough about this theme to know, but it seems not to make sense.
Watcher is also what Barret was. Not saying there can't be multiple, but somehow your claim in general seems dubious (although FF fans, feel free to correct my logic).

[CarnCarn]

Edit: I would think he would have been one of the (many) Vigs this game seems to have.

Why do you say many? There were 3 kills N1 (my guess is mafia, SK, vig?). And I'm not a vig; I'm a Jack of All Trades role.

[CarnCarn]

Carn Carn, can you please explain the mechanics of the Slots? Do you know what ability you're getting each night before you choose your target?

Each night, I can use my Slots ability to randomly Kill, Investigate, Roleblock, or Protect. I do not know know which of these will be activated before I use it. I assume Westbrook's rationale (certainly this would also be my own rationale) for targeting ABR N1 is that, with equal probabilities, there is a 3/4 chance of Kill, Investigate, or Roleblock (all of which are reasonable actions against someone perceived as scum), and only 1/4 chance of Protect.

So why did you ask for it if you're a freaking watcher? You would be pulling that doc protect away from cops, vigilantes and other more powerful characters than yourself.

Well, this isn't really fair to ABR. He knew he would be the obvious scum target if he was right about xtoxm being scum (since he claimed day-cop), so I see this fitting in with his story.

Why did you choose to watch drago?

Yeah, this is strange. I would have guessed xtoxm's target, armlx would be a more logical choice, among others, but cd is kind of a strange pick. I can think of one reason why he choose cd, but I'll allow ABR to answer himself.

Does anyone really think there are two watchers in this game?

I wouldn't be shocked if there were two, but I doubt ABR's claim on a holistic level.

[CarnCarn]

Yes, I am certain that the ability used N1 was Kill. Cephrir, are you actually gonna drop the hammer or just pretend to FoS?
The ABR post above sounds more like a resignation post that anything.

[CarnCarn]

And agree that TM is obviously quite suspicious, too ATM.

[CarnCarn]

It seems we still have over a day so there's no need to hammer ABR yet.

oh, just read this. yeah, no need to rush this close to the deadline, I guess.

[CarnCarn]

Back here again, to even this back to a L-1 stalemate. Personally, I think TonyMontana is scum, but I don't think we'll have time to get enough votes on him before deadline.

They aren't both at L-1, only ABR is (they can't be since we are 22 and cavebear hasn't lifted his vote from TM).
Also, this has been said already, but Mafia Tracker is not an uncommon role, so I don't know why a tracker claim makes you think he's not scum.
Also, I still don't see how his flavor claim makes any sense. The only one that seemed to think it was logical was Zakeri, if it was referring to an Airplane.

Vote Count update
Albert B. Rampage - 11 (DynamoXI, Grimmy, MBPikamon, Iamausername, MrBuddyLee, Christiano Drago, Yosarian2, CarnCarn, CallMeLiam, kloud1516, armlx)

CallMeLiam - 10 (Albert B. Rampage, wolframnhart, Cludsy, Empking, Zakeri, Natirasha,Cephrir, Ghostwriter, TonyMontana, Jebus)

TonyMontana - 1 (Cavebear with a toothache)

[CarnCarn]

Yeah, it's possible to mix up the roles, but it is now D2 and this game has been going on for a while now. I would have thought he would at least check his role PM one last time, especially to provide accurate flavor info for the theme.

[CarnCarn]

Wow, there goes the whole bulletproof ABR theory. Someone really must have been fishing around to RB Westbrook N1 or protect ABR.

IAAUN, I don't know that I should really delve into specifics of who I was targeting at this point, as I was roleblocked.

Hmm, as for a vote. The most suspicious people from yesterday are now dead, and surprisingly were town. I'm not sure what to make of TM's last minute shift from ABR to CML, even if it did end up lynching scum. Was he just doing it to bus a teammate? It was pretty scummy, especially after confirming his vote against ABR just a few posts before.
So, yeah, I think I will

Vote: Tony Montana

[CarnCarn]

cd, in most mafia games I've played/read, the mafia submit the kill using only one person on their team to do the kill. That way, the others appear to have "been at home"

[CarnCarn]

Well, from the two scum that have been lynched, iLord and CML, one was a Goon and another was a Roleblocker, so it's possible that multiple scum from the same team could be "not at home" on any given night.
But yeah, your argument that just because you were at home means you are not scum is too much of a leap (AFAIK, Goons usually don't have night actions, unless they are the ones doing the kill).

[CarnCarn]

I won't be voting ABR right now because I _still_ don't think that he is scum, however I'm still giving him a major FoS because, like other people, the fact that he was most likely Cid was protecting him.

Hmm, I wonder about the meaning of this in retrospect. Also, I wonder if the Roleblock and Doctor abilities are separate (although I know we probably won't get a definite answer until the end).
And, apparently, even if Cludsy did protect ABR N1, he didn't protect him N2 (as evidenced by the kill on ABR going through). But this again begs the question of whether he did in fact protect ABR N1.

[CarnCarn]

MBL, idk; if Cludsy's role is similar to a jailor (protect + RB), then it could be either town or scum who RB'd.

Jebus, pretty sure there are 2 mafia groups (at least), Turks and Shinra from the dead scum iLord and CML.

[CarnCarn]

Jebus, I agree with TM about having cop reveals now being a bad thing. Think about it; according to your analysis and the data from the NKs on both nights, a lot of townies are dead, and there are at least 2 scum teams with an SK. This means the town proportion relative to scum has decreased significantly.
Also, Yuffie, the doc/RBer was killed. This makes a cop reveal much less safe.
I don't think a cop should reveal at this point unless the person about to be lynched was investigated and confirmed innocent (since losing another townie in a lynch at this point would be a significant blow).

[CarnCarn]

Also, this thread could use a lot more cavebear today. It seems that he basically lurked all the way through D2 (intentionally IMO, I don't think it was inactivity; I have reasons to think this, but will look for a response from him first).

[CarnCarn]

That's pretty big claim, and considering you're L-2 with a relatively large number of scum, I'll

Unvote: Tony Montana

.

I still don't like the shifting wagons explanation from yesterday, but Cloud is a major character.

[CarnCarn]

MBL, well, you may be right. If he were scum and convinced that he was going to get lynched, then claiming something like Cloud is not really a bad strategy.
I'm hesitant to really lynch him on the second/third page of D3, but his actions have been scummy over the previous 2 days, and his justification for this is that he WANTED to look that way.
For now, I'm just waiting for a few more arguments to be made, and whether people are generally willing to believe the Cloud claim or whether they think it's some gambit.
For now, I'm going to

Vote: Cavebear with a toothache

, at least until he explains his lacadaisical posting.

[CarnCarn]

There's no role that would be so powerful as to not be worth outing in exchange for a guaranteed scum lynch, especially when they wouldn't even have to claim their role, just their name.

No, I don't think this is true. If TM is lying and there is a real Cloud out there, they would have to provide more info than just claiming Cloud.
I don't like TM trying to influence doc protect; Cloud is a pretty major role, so if you're believed by whoever can protect, then you'll be protected, otherwise not.

Also:

Also, why in the hell did you just randomly claim vanilla for no reason?!

This. lol what was that for?

[CarnCarn]

I really don't think the real Cloud, if TM is lying, should counterclaim. That would not be the best return for the town, given the dwindled numbers. Also, with potential for SK kills to possibly go through protection, multiple killers targeting him to override any protect, and for roleblocks, I don't think that person would be very safe at all.

[CarnCarn]

For now, I don't like 1201.

What don't you

like

about that post? If you're wondering why I voted Cavebear, don't worry, I will explain shortly (I'll give him another 24 hours).

I've never played FFVII. Is it gauche to ask who the claimed character is?

Cloud? He is the main character of FFVII.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_Strife

[CarnCarn]

Lowell, carncarn claimed vig who was blocked last night. Which means we essentially have 5 killing groups if he's telling the truth. Thought you should know.

I am not a vig in the pure sense. I am a Jack of All Trades (JoAT); I cannot voluntarily choose which ability I want to use on any given night.
I should probably clarify about the roleblock, too. It is not mod-confirmed information, but rather what I was able to deduce myself. In any case, my original point about not wanting to discuss the specifics still applies.

[CarnCarn]

CarnCarn=SK

First of all, did you just assume that everyone on my wagon was scum?

Secondly, Sephiroth is the SK. There is no reason to believe Cait Sith would be a safeclaim.

I think there was a disproportionate percentage of scum on your wagon. Some were eager to vote you and reticent to vote Liam over ABR. (Though they claimed to find Liam scummy). Others attacked Liam aggressively for much of the day.

I agree that Sephiroth is probably the SK, but having the powers CarnCarn claimed fits well with the kind of power an SK would need to survive a game of this size. And since an SK obviously can't claim Sephiroth, he must have been provided a quality safeclaim to explain his powers away. Cait Sith's slots are a perfect explanation for that power, the flavor is convincing, and the game wouldn't be cheapened by the lack of an actual Cait Sith.

Then consider that CarnCarn claimed to target ABR N1 with no effect. He hypothesized that either he was blocked or that ABR was protected after fakeclaiming a cop with a guilty. Since it's extremely unlikely that ABR was protected N1, we're left with CarnCarn's story that he was roleblocked N1.

Plus, I'm still bothered by the fact that if CarnCarn wasn't blocked N2, as he claims, that we could have had FIVE nightkills last night. I see it as more likely that CarnCarn actually DID kill someone, but is telling us he did not.

So there are your choices; either:

* CarnCarn/Westbrook was roleblocked two nights in a row
or
* CarnCarn actually killed someone each night and lied about it

I'm guessing CarnCarn killed ABR N2. I'll reread to see who he killed N1.

major FOS: CarnCarn

Uh, wow, did you just accuse a third of the players here? Where to begin. First of all, I said I was a Jack of All Trades, so I don't get to kill every night (unless I get extremely lucky). If you think about Yuffie, the doc + RB, dying last night, then it makes sense that I could have been either protected and RB'd or been RB'd by scum who were afraid I would target them.
Also, how can you think that I am an SK AND that I killed ABR N2 (look at the kill method used to kill ABR)?

[CarnCarn]

So if I said I had a guilty on you, or tracked you to a dead townie, you wouldn't ignore my attack?

The tracker is dead, the watcher is dead. Don't you go claming tracker, too , now...
But the first part of your comment... are you just throwing that out there or what?

Also:

Because I have inside knowledge of the setup.

This.

[CarnCarn]

Interesting attempt to discredit me before you know if my claims are valid. Why would you do that? Nervous much?

Well, I already know one of those is invalid...

Don't you mean "I AM a Jack of all Trades"? "I said" sounds so... noncommittal...

Yeah, OK, I AM. Go back to my full role claim D2, I make it pretty clear what I am, there is no way for me to be noncomittal here.

That's N2. How about N1?

N1 is a puzzle to me as well. Your guess is really as good as mine. I tend to think ABR was protected rather than Westbrook getting the RB, but I don't know.

I don't anymore--actually read the nightkills more carefully. I think you killed kloud last night.

OK... any reason I would want to? This whole argument basically goes back to you thinking I am SK.

But the biggest weakness in the argument: Why would I jump in with a gambit safeclaim against ABR on D2 if were an SK? I would not give a damn either way who got lynched as long as it wasn't me, and there was clearly no chance of that D2. All that would do is draw unwanted attention my way. No, I did what I did because I felt I was helping the town.

Not sure what you are trying to do with these mass accusations; will be surprised if you uncover anything, but then again, with that many people, I'm sure you're bound to hit someone or other.
I'm still waiting on Cavebear, who I think is one of the most, if not the most scummy ATM, but

IGMEOY: MBL

[CarnCarn]

Game Rules:

8.

If you have not warned me beforehand, I will send you a prod if you don’t post for 48 hours. I will give you another 48 hours to respond before I begin looking for a replacement. Excessive lurking (five days or more) will result in replacement or mod-kill, regardless of whether you’ve picked up your prod.

Cavebear, yeah, the low posting worries me, given the rule above. I understand that RL issues are often not controllable, but, well, you've "broken" this rule a lot during the last month, so I'm thinking you must have "warned" the mod in some way.
You've posted 4 times during the month, the 1st, 13th, and 21st (D2), and 27th (D3), and only 1 prod apparently (11th). This makes me think you were planning this out somehow, letting the mod know your plans beforehand, and very conicidentally comeback out of nowhere on deadline day.
Again, I'm not going to doubt the RL stuff, but, in light of everything, I'm a bit worried you are just planning to lurk through.

[CarnCarn]

CarnCarn: You were told you were roleblocked this night, correct? Can you ask the mod if you were roleblocked (or rather if Westbrook was) night one, if your (his) action didn't go through? Would be interesting to know.

No, I was not told. I asked the mod about a possible roleblock N1 and he was unable to explain further, so I assume the same for N2. I am pretty sure that RBs are not explicitly stated by the mod to the RB'd player.
Like I said, I come to this conclusion myself.

[CarnCarn]

Great, another "I'm anti-town and proud of it" player

Are you talking about yourself?
Also, look at the first line of Nat's sig; I'm assuming that is what he is referring to about trying to decipher his comments.

[CarnCarn]

OK, I'm going to

Unvote

. I was mostly looking for an explanation and I think it is genuine.

[CarnCarn]

I'm really surprised you thought that stupid theory could be true, CarnCarn.

Why is it stupid? I assumed there had to be a reason why the mod wasn't replacing him, given rule #8.

[CarnCarn]

Do you really think I thought I'd get protown cred for posting the 13th vote on a 12-to-lynch wagon? If anything, I drew negative attention to myself.

Speaking of which, what was the point of it, then? I don't see the sense of "let's seal it":

That should be a lynch, but let's seal it.

c) You insinuate inside information about drago being blocked? Did this odd remark ever get resolved?

Pretty sure this is referring to his theory of ABR being blocked by a Yuffie protect(ABR claimed he tracked CD N1 and saw nothing).

b) you defend CarnCarn and conveniently post the cornerstone of CarnCarn defense in the next post: "obviously ABR was doc protected". A little too coincidental if you ask me.

Wow. That is certainly not the "cornerstone of my defense" and, with an RB ability, it does makes more sense for the doc to target ABR after the fake-guilty.

[CarnCarn]

What do you think of Zakeri's coming-out post, CarnCarn? See what I saw about it possibly being pre-written overnight?

I agree, there is something strange about it. It seems like Zak clearly wasn't expecting kloud to be killed, but I'm not sure what that tells us. Perhaps it was prewritten as you say, or perhaps it was just an oversight.

And sometimes, votes don't go through because there are voteblocking roles. There's no harm in adding an extra to making sure it goes through, especially close to deadline.

I would have thought that, if there was vote blocking in place, the possibility would have been disclosed somewhere by the mod (see Mushroom Kingdom).

[CarnCarn]

^^^^ OMGUS

First, Nat, then you. Add in a random vanilla claim, a possible prewritten agenda post, accusations of a third of the players, and you get a game that's going nowhere quickly

[CarnCarn]

Never heard of a voteblocking role, sorry.

He's not making it up. See Mushroom Kingdom Mafia, where there are such roles. However, the mod in that game makes it clear that the visible votecount may be different from the real votecount. I'm sure we would have some similar warning if such roles were in play in this game, though.

[CarnCarn]

Corrections to vote count: 1) Lowell is already voting wolframnhart, so he probably shouldn't be under the "Nobody" category 2) Add myself and Jebus to the not voting category (that should make 10 not voting).

Fixed.

[CarnCarn]

In case this isn't clear, I wasn't ing because the votecount was inaccurate.

Want to explain? I can guess, but I can't read minds.

Hopefully people will start posting again. MBL kind of took everyone for a spin, and he still hasn't explained why he finds half of the people on his list to be scummy (and not just scum, but specific flavor of scum).

[CarnCarn]

Vote: MrBuddyLee

You've got a lot of explaining to do, Mr

[CarnCarn]

Unvote

No, I just thought it would get your attention. Like I said, you've listed 6 people to investigate and have really only made cases against 3 (me, Nat, Jebus), and a bit against Yos2. You haven't said anything about why you think iam and cephrir are scum. I'm assuming you will in due time, though.

Natirasha replaced Zac. Said he had no interest in reading the game. Found CallMeLiam scummy, listed an utter falsehood as his reason:

I agree CML is scummy--it doesn't make sense to test a cop when you can test the subject first.

CalMeLiam never voted a cop on D1--he was voting armlx.

Wait, what? Are you sure he was referring to CML's vote?
And how exactly would a Turk know who is Shinra? I think you asked a similar question yourself:

Can the Tony Montana voters please explain how a scumbag could possibly know for certain right now that another player is a townie?

This is the flip side of that question. A scumcop, though? Really? I guess it's possible, but I would say it's closer to the category of the daycop and voteblocking roles (i.e., non-existant in this game).

As for unvoting TM, there are lots of good reasons I can think of (I did it myself, and I've explained why), but I'll leave it to Nat.

[quote="Jebus]@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

This looks like scum trying to set someone up for a fall--a curious choice of names, and why's Yosarian2 in there?[/quote][/quote]
Interesting. So, this was yesterday, when Nat replaced and was doing a read through. I would also like to know why Jebus thinks/thought Yos2 is suspicious (the other 3 I can understand).
I don't buy the distancing thing yet, but this is a good point. I can see a link between Jebus and CML making sense in light of the request of deadline extension, etc.

[CarnCarn]

The Yos2 case is really pushing it. Your main argument is that he didn't push hard enough to lynch CML, who ended up scum. Umm, hello? That's the cat calling the kettle black here. You do realize that the same thing applies to you, me, and a bunch of other people who strongly preferred the ABR lynch all day, right? I didn't see you making many arguments against CML, either. But, that's just the way the game goes; you can only lynch one person per day, so you end up focusing your arguments on one person, when the dust starts settling one a group of suspects.

Also:

note that Yos found Tony Montana to be a possible cop on October 11th

This is Yos2's Oct 11 post:

I think we need a mass prod. And for everybody to explain why the hell they are not voting TonyMontana, because I don't understand at all.

That was because he seemed to "know" Armlx was town, right?


It's a possible scumtell, sure. There are other possible explinatios for that too, though. In any case, I think that the overall cases on Albert and CallMeLiam are better.

Your reasoning isn't very good. It's basically LAL.

How is LAL not good reasoning? You realize that it's the meta stratagy that has been used by most of the good players on this site for most of the time this site's been in existance, right?

I'm not quite a LAL guy, but I'm a big fan of "lynch almost all liars". If you get caught in a lie, I tend to think you've got to have a REALLY good reason why we should think you're protown in order to live, and Albert really dosn't; the best I could say is that I could imagine him doing it as either town or as scum, and I personally don't think that's enough reason to let someone live after they get caught lying about a counterclaim and about a cop investigation.

Where exactly does he even mention a cop?

[CarnCarn]

Where exactly does he even mention a cop?

Other than in reference to ABR, in the last line, that is.

[CarnCarn]

Do we have a deadline yet?

Deadline is

Saturday the 22nd of November at 10 PM EST.

I am considering moving deadline up a week.

[CarnCarn]

Going to post my thoughts on the current suspects (even though no one asked for them, really):

Jebus: MBL might be on to something here with the requests for deadline extension, etc.

Natirasha: Not sure what to think. It seems like his actions fit his playstyle and so what you see as anti-town is probably just a null-tell.

Yos2: I never read him as scummy so your argument is interesting. It's quite possible that Yos was thinking TM was a cop, now that I read back, and was still looking for a claim. I myself never really made the connection that TM might be a PR; I just took his confidence as a reflection of his record of never being lynched. But, I also didn't think he was scum yesterday, until he started acting really mysteriously towards the end of the day and switching his vote so late. Anyway, if I thought TM was really a PR, I would not have voted him or even pressured him, really.

Zakeri: Hmm, this is an interesting case. The post he made mentioning kloud might be alive but also that Yuffie died is really strange. His explanations basically amounted to "I didn't look carefully at who died, I was in a rush, etc.", all of which only make me more curious to know what he was thinking (maybe he also didn't really care to see if he died, because he can't be NK'd? A bit extreme, but possible). Why could he possibly be in that much of a hurry at the start of the day, unless he was really hoping to influence the lynch or early wagoning?

If I had to vote now, it would go on Zak, but I'm waiting for Jebus' story.

[CarnCarn]

MBL what are your specific thoughts on Zak? You mention him as significantly suspicious but don't make a case either way.

[CarnCarn]

Oh, and I should really address this:

CarnCarn - Claimed without provocation, but it's an odd role that could easily accidentally vig someone he had hoped to protect or investigate, which sounds more SKish.

I will never "accidentally" vig ANYONE. Given that 3/4 of my abilities (Kill, Investigate, Roleblock) are more useful against scum, guess what type of players I will target.
If I vig anyone, it will not be "accidental"; it will be because I think they were vig-worthy (read: scum).
This is like the third or fourth time you've mentioned that my abilities make me SK or SKish. Either you truly don't see that my abilities were designed to help town, or you're scum that's trying waaay too hard to get a claimed PR lynched.

[CarnCarn]

Do you think the SK will be a powerless chump with a vanilla claim?

A mafia RB (Liam) had a vanilla claim (I assume it was a safeclaim; no one countered). What makes you think the SK would have something special?

The protect part strikes me as weird. If you target someone you find scummy, there's a 1/4 chance you can protect them from a crosskill or vig kill. Not too thrilled about that as a pro-town role.

Personally, I think it's more of a balance thing. Also, if you check other games where there are Jack of All Trades, they are protown and have the 4 abilities I mentioned. I can't think of one off the top of my head, but I remember browsing through some such games.

The fact that you=town means Yuffie had to protect Albert N1 bothers me as well.

This is not necessarily true. There are lots of possibilities for why my N1 action didn't go through on ABR. The simpler ones are that ABR was protected (although I don't know if we should really assume Yuffie is the only one with this ability). Other possibilities are along the lines of me being roleblocked (I don't know about this, considering westbrook's general inactiveness; not my favorite explanation).
Also possible is deflection of my kill or ABR being moved/transposed with someone else (I wouldn't be surprised to find such roles in this game, but I don't know how likely this is). Anyway, I like the protection explanation, but I don't necessarily see Yuffie as having to protect ABR N1 for my story to make sense.

Should we all trust your claim blindly?

I don't understand why you think you should be beyond scrutiny--it's a little overdefensive in my opinion.

Of course not. And when I have said I should be above suspicion? I've been answering questions as best as I can, but I've also been correcting a lot of misconceptions (either accidental or purposeful) about my role and alignment. How can you make that sound like a bad thing?

[CarnCarn]

early in the day CarnCarn was wondering about if a doc protected Albert, I actually do believe he tried to killl Albert the night before. Of course, that might just mean he's scum who tried to kill him; we certanly haven't seen any proof of any of his other claimed abilities. I think it's quite likely Carn is Shanara scum.

Early in the day? I replaced into the game several days after day started, and I didn't really mention it until much later. I was poking around, especially after MBL brought up the ABR quote in question first (the one where he tried directing doc protection).
So, you're saying that since my story seems to make sense, I'm scum? I was a pretty obvious target for RB last night, and we know mafia have RBs (as well as Yuffie the doc, who was really a jailor). So, it's kind of hard to really prove those other abilities when you get blocked...

Also, I'm kind of surprised MBL is buying into the scumcop thing, based on what iLord said. He was clearly wrong about both xtoxm and ABR, and I wouldn't be surprised if his comments are just general confusion-increasing attempts from scum.
Also, what is this about:

* If armlx is actually Shinra (maybe a 10% chance at this point)

I do believe it's straight from the Zakeri school of day-scene-reading-comprehension.

[CarnCarn]

Yeah, it's not making sense why scum would want to reveal that info, if it's really true. I don't think scum would really want town to know about a scumcop; I don't see how that helps the town, only confuses it/is irrelevant. I'm still thinking iLord was probably lying.

Although to be technical, if he's telling the truth, we would have 4.25 killing groups. -.-

This.

I just thought the way "results" were talked about made it seem like an investigative/informational role was certain.

No matter, I will claim by the end of the day.

Yeah, I was wondering what kind of results people thought you were going to get. You haven't actually claimed anything really except name and having a night(?) ability.
I don't know if a full claim is necessary here. How exactly does it help the town?

[CarnCarn]

Well. Unsurprisingly I didn't find a whole lot. I've been dismissing MBL's cases as mostly reading too much into things but there aren't a lot of obvious scumtells in this thread. And he's brought up some pretty relevant sufff. Given that I'm not finding anything glaringly obvious, maybe it is the right approach here, even though I would normally think of it as overly critical. Also, the lurkers in this game are horrible people.

Like I said, I think Jebus is the best of the mound of cases MBL made. The only especially original thing I have to contribute here is that CD is constantly rubbing me the wrong way even though I don't have anything concrete. I'm beyond hesitant to vote based on my gut because it's constantly wrong. It might even be worse than random chance based on my past games.

Anyway, I think Zakeri needs some votes for his implosion over the last page. Probably the best lead we've come up with currently.

Vote: Zakeri

I might be reading too much into it, as you'll probably dismiss these comments, but I find it unsettling that you can say that the case against someone is best, and then vote someone else. You took this same action towards the end of yesterday, saying the ABR case was likely stronger, yet still voting CML.

But you make an excellent point about the lurkers in this game. Where are they? Cavebear, I know you're out there

[CarnCarn]

And I'm pretty sure I didn't do what you just said in your last sentence.

Well, if you're going to deny it:

I have to say, given ABR's forgetting his role,

and

his somewhat difficult to believe target (although I can think of a reason to track cd),

he's likely scum.

Oct 20. Emphasis yours.

I'm not sure CML is the right lynch, but I suppose it's better to lose a townie than a potential tracker and yes, I would still say there's a substantial chance ABR is not lying.

I'm not sure if CML's repeated insistance that there's no case on him indicates frustrated townie or frustrated scum. I know I have reacted that way as both.

Both from the same Oct 21 post. It's unclear what would have changed your mind, and, given that you

sound

a lot more convinced ABR was scum than CML, it's a bit surprising you still put your vote on CML. I just remembered this and it struck me as a parallel to your mentioning of Jebus and vote for Zak.

[CarnCarn]

Ahh, the enigmatic Cavebear speaks:

I've done a lot of re-reading tonight, but I'm afraid I'm not quite done with it. More to come, I guess. in the meantime, rather than letting my vote just hang in limbo, I'll vote someone else who could make some opinions clearer and his voice heard a bit louder:

Vote: Empking

Can you please explain why you're voting Empking aside from the (ironic) fact that he could post more of his thoughts? Are you instructing him to do so? The last line sounds a bit like a passive command.

You going to actualy make a case for that, or are you just going to follow all the MBF arguments without even saying anything about the defense I gave to them?

No.

No to which part of the question?

My readthrough is still nowhere. I need to find a few hours to devote to this, which I haven't had yet. Until then I'll just sit here casting reckless votes.

Why does this seem really strange? Oh yes, the day is halfway gone and you're still in the random stage. Carry on, carry on.

Read sig.

That sounds bad.

[CarnCarn]

Yes, once MBL kicks into high gear finding scum, he invariably ends up dead the next morning.

So, you're basically saying that scum are balless and don't appeciate a challenge?
And yeah, I want to hear what Emp think of MBL's scumhunting. His original comment about the superfluous vote was made yesterday.

[CarnCarn]

MBL
Nat
Lowell

Emp, what are your thoughts on Zakeri and his Yuffie/kloud "gaffe"? I notice you haven't listed him as someone you are suspicious of? Any reasons?

[CarnCarn]

I did say it could be a case of mistaken phraseology earlier on - which I personally don't believe in but won't chase anyone about - but it was ignored in favour of the "They are the same thing" argument.

Which they - clearly - are not.

So, what is your point with all of this? Even if he does have "something that is not solid" and is not telling us what it is, why is that scummy?
For all we know, what he could have is a small piece of the puzzle and he's waiting for other pieces to show up before revealing his hand.

[CarnCarn]

What do you mean by "passive command"? I thought it was reasonably clear that I do want him to make some [of his] opinions clearer [by posting some reasons] and his voice heard a bit louder [by generally making posts with more substance] if that's what you mean.

Here is your reason for voting:

in the meantime, rather than letting my vote just hang in limbo, I'll vote someone else who could make some opinions clearer and his voice heard a bit louder:

Vote: Empking

I was unsure what you meant by "could make some opinions clearer" and "voice heard a bit louder". It just sounded to me like the type of language scummates could just to communicate suggestions/orders. It's probably only a weak tell at most, and now that I look back at the context, I don't really consider it anything.

[CarnCarn]

My eventual point, is that he seems to be a bit simple. Shame, it was a waste of my time.

Fail. Condescension gets us no extra points. And it's been relatively obvious what his "nothing solid" is anyway; he's mentioned it a few times earlier in the thread.

[CarnCarn]

I'll set my ambitions lower and just try to read the last 10 pages, maybe.

Good luck trying to make sense of anything. The last 10 pages don't even cover all of this relatively slow day.

[CarnCarn]

Upon isolated (though admittedly not complete) read, zakeri looks relatively scummy. He's sort of a hider, at opportune times.

Uhhh, examples plz. Although for the reasons MBL stated:

How do you tell during an

isolated

read that someone hides at opportune times? Don't you need to see the full thread to know when it's an opportune time?

we're not likely to receive any.

Vote: Lowell

[CarnCarn]

Let's review:

1) wagon forms on zakeri
2) Lowell jumps in, votes for zakeri, gives little to no reasoning
3) people unvote, vote Lowell

Think carefully about this. My not explaining myself doesn't make the case weaker... it makes it the same. Those voting me are attempting derailment, and those who profess now to be "confused" by my voting (or Nat's, I guess) are REALLY going for derailment.

Reasons zakeri is scum are upcoming, but until then chill out. Those who unvote because of a wagon are not what they seem....

Lowell, who's hopping wagons? The only ones voting you are wolf and I. Wolf voted you many pages ago and I was not voting anyone before I voted you.
I'm not liking this fake-victimizing on your part.

[CarnCarn]

I'm still a bit concerned with Zak's claim.
First, since Tony did, I think Zak should also fork over investigation results, so we have some more information for later in the game, and would have information to possibly confirm him as cop if/when his targets are dead.

I escaped knowing the faces of all those who are affiliated with Shinra.

What exactly does this mean?

Lowell is not a member of Shinra. I don't know if he's a turk or sephiroth or not. That's all the information I have right now because CallMeLiam was lynched.

Why does CML being lynched affect the information you have right now?
Also, why were you first on the CML wagon? Did you investigate him N1 or something? If so, why did you choose him, instead of, say, a more obvious target like ABR?

I was hesitant to vote for Lowell until my last "scummy slip-up" of making certain there were more scum groups than just Shinra.

This does explain somewhat your comment that "it was good to know for sure", but I'm still baffled how you could have thought there was only one scum group after we saw a Turk NK'd and a Shinra lynched.

[CarnCarn]

Cavebear and Ghostwriter are not SK

I also find these results a bit fishy. Were you just throwing darts at who to investigate? Are you throwing darts

now

as to who might not be SK, just to make your claim sound better?

[CarnCarn]

Cavebear and Ghostwriter are not SK

I also find these results a bit fishy. Were you just throwing darts at who to investigate? Are you throwing darts

now

as to who might not be SK, just to make your claim sound better?

Err.. do *you* know who the SK is?

No. Now that I think about it, I don't think you should explain why you chose those people to investigate, as disclosing those reasons may affect how everyone else posts going forward.
Still, seems like extremely random choices from my perspective, as Cavebear and GhostWriter have been two of the least active players in this game. Perhaps you were just trying to play it safe with your investigations and trying to target inactives, who might be less likely to get NK'd (although most of those NK'd were relatively inactive). I don't really want to get into deep speculation about your criteria for investigation, only want to point out that I thought it seemed random.

[CarnCarn]

Lowell, can you explain the Empking case in your own words?

I think Empking's still got a bigger wagon, and he's pretty much said nothing all game too. Just sayin'.

Have you played with Emp before?

[CarnCarn]

I recounted the votes, I'm pretty sure that was the hammer.

No, IAAUN's count is right. 9 to lynch and Lowell is at L-1 now.
What are the 9 votes you're counting Jebus?

Yes, but it was Corruption in the Throne, which is probably far enough from normal mafia that it doesn't really count. Pretty sure I haven't played any others with him.

His lack of contribution isn't the whole of my case against him, although it's certainly a pretty large part of it.

I think he has actually been about as helpful as it gets, for him. Especially his input day 1 and day 2. And I can understand why he would think MBL's redundant CML vote yesterday is scummy (maybe a "too townie" argument?), although I would have thought MBL's scumhunting today would mostly put that idea to rest.

[CarnCarn]

Wow, I could see the TM kill coming a mile away. At least he gave us some results to work with.

I have role info that says wolframnhart is not the SK Sephiroth (I roleblocked him). I'm assuming Sephiroth is doing the kills with the sword, which seems like a decent assumption. I guess he could be using a proxy, though, which might invalidate any of this. Game fans, does a proxy make any sense for Sephiroth?

By the same logic, wolframnhart did not do any of the other kills, either, but that doesn't necessarily say anything more about his alignment.

[CarnCarn]

I'm assuming Tony screwed up and assumed he was chasing Sephiroth when actually he was chasing Dyne?

I'm not sure about that. Cloud and Sephiroth are basically archenemies in the game, I think, so he might have been looking for Sephiroth after all. It makes more sense that way, because he specifically said he was looking for Sephiroth, not that he was just looking for an SK.
In my mind, this just confirms that Sephiroth is another SK:

My sole goal is to find my nemesis,

Sephiroth

, and I'm searching for him one person at a time.
...
Btw, the two people I now know are not Sephiroth, are still alive. If I can't find him, I hope I can keep the

not-SK list

growing.

Italics added. He specifically says he is looking for Sephiroth, BY NAME. I think we can safely say he was named in his role PM.
The fact that he searches for Sephiroth by investigating for SK suggests Sephiroth is also an SK.
Well TM (since I guess you're out there, reading), I think I've added to the not-SK list.

[CarnCarn]

Also, mod, can we get a replacement for wolframnhart? His sig says he's leaving the site

[CarnCarn]

Add MBL to the obvnotSK list

[CarnCarn]

14. christiano drago claimed vanilla

Where/when?

There's an SK, two Turks and a Shinra out there.

How are you sure of these numbers? (Are you sure of these numbers? It sounded like you were listing facts/generally accepted statements)

[CarnCarn]

Your second argument is that I wanted to test a daycop. Unless, you disbelieved the claim, I don't see why town wouldn't.

Obviously Zak didn't believe the claim, Emp.

Zakeri, is your argument against Empking that he agreed with Liam (Shinra)?
Aren't you also suspicious of:

Vote Count Number Six: I hate Elias' way o counting votes votecount

armlx - 5

(

Xtoxm,

wolframnhart

, ilord, kloud1516, CallMeLiam

)

End of Day 1 Vote Count. Color added. Do you think wolf could be Shinra by the same argument? He also preferred to test the daycop. I think there may be others, too, who initially voted to test the daycop claim but then switched closer to deadline.
Incidentally, Empking was the hammer on xtoxm, but this sounded a bit stange:

Why don't people want a hammer?

People

do

want a hammer. Make it so.

I'm not sure what to think of it. Why did Emp think people didn't want a hammer? IAAUN's response is accurate, from what I was able to gather.
If there is anything really scummy that Emp has done, I would say this is up there. Everything else generally seems to fit with his style.

RiceBallTail completely jumped onto someone who made a vanilla claim in the face of the just as scummy but non-claimed Empking.

Can you give examples of how Empking was just as scummy? I think Lowell was a lot scummier yesterday.

Still waiting on this:

14. christiano drago claimed vanilla

Where/when?

Also, gut feeling is that one of IAAUN and Yos2 and one of christiano drago/Cephrir are scum of some sort, based on their spats yesterday. I'll go back and do a reread to see if I can get a better understanding.

[CarnCarn]

And finally, it wasn't a blatant claim I made back then - but I'll make one now. I am Elmyra Gainsborough, vanilla townie. The reason I hadn't made it more blatant at the time was because I didn't feel the need to, the results that were coming to the fore front pretty much outed me as Vanilla anyway.

That (the name claim) was completely unnecessary.

I'm still keeping my eye on Cephrir, I feel that when he tried to point the finger at me yesterday he was plucking names out of the air to look busy. I can't seem to remember him making a case for anyone he's been voting for either - but I'll be rereading to make sure I haven't just forgotten.

That is the feeling I get from him, too, and am going back to do a bit of research on him and who he replaced (Spamwise).

[CarnCarn]

I think the Turks are our priority right now; we've got two Shinra down, and they were around for long enough to make it possible to find links to them. Only one dead Turk, and he might as well have died on Night Zero for all the good we can get out of his interactions. We need to kill another Turk soon, and I don't think MBL is one.

This is not protown thinking.

A valid point. Getting rid of Shinra is probably "easier" since they're probably fewer in number now, and more desirable since that would reduce NKs. Also, with only one Shinra left, I would assume they are Godfather (President Shinra himself would make a lot of sense), which could make Zakeri's future investigations (and last night's investigation on Jebus) pointless due to investigation immunity.
However, we don't have anyone confirmed Shinra, only suspicions and potential links. If instead we were to switch to a Turk hunt, what is the correct play for a Turk cop, here (assuming they have a useful result)? Claim, or not?
Obviously, don't claim if nothing useful to contribute.
I assume we have a Turk cop just for the sake of symmetry and balance; if it's a bad assumption, I'd like to know why.

[CarnCarn]

A Serial Killer that is hitting out aimlessly from now on is much more favorable to have around than a Scum Group specifically aiming for Townies.

This is not protown thinking.

This.
cd's reasoning is backwards.

[CarnCarn]

A Serial Killer that is hitting out aimlessly from now on is much more favorable to have around than a Scum Group specifically aiming for Townies.

This is not protown thinking.

This.
cd's reasoning is backwards.

*points at the reply I made.*

Your thinking is still backwards. SK doesn't prefer to kill mafia as you suggest. It's the opposite, in fact.
Think about it: all the mafia die and the game is still going. Hmm...
No, the SK has to keep at least some mafia alive and with possibly 3 other scum out of 13 alive, I see no reason why SK would actively try to kill a mafiate now. Instead, he would probably try to kill a townie to improve chances of winning down the road.
So, suggesting that we don't need to worry about SK Sephiroth right now and instead focus on other scum is not protown thinking as MBL just said.

[CarnCarn]

^^Bunch of BS there (Jebus' last post)^^

Will post reasoning soon.

[CarnCarn]

And before I go any further, tell me how the hell my recent posts were complete bs? (this one goes out to CarnCarn and MBL)

It's easier to alter the flow a little than to go completely against it :/

We've got 13. I think Iam's right, we're most likely looking at a 7town, ~3turks, 1-2shinra, 1Sephiroth situation. So 7,3,2,1. It's impossible to win this by managing to only lynch scum. We need to keep all the killing factions in the game. None of the scum groups (hopefully) knows about the other groups, so we'll assume that outside of the particular scumgroup is fair game. So the Turks have a 3/10 chance of hitting scum, the Shinra have a 4/11 chance of hitting scum, and Sephiroth has a 5/12 chance of hitting scum, so the overall chance of hitting scum is about 1/2, according to my rough head-math. Those'r pretty good odds of hitting scum. Take away either the Shinra (which could be either one or two left) or Sephiroth, and the overall odds of scum hitting scum greatly decreases to an overall chance of about 1/3, again according to my rough head-math. However, killing a turk today (or a shinra if there are two left) doesn't do anything to the odds, and still lessens the scumcount.

So based on my (very-rough) calculations, we're best off going for turks. 'kay?

With two SK's in the game and 2 mafia factions, I feel a traditional vig would be in play, here. Either they have been getting blocked or making policy kills on lurkerish players who turned up town. Regardless, no vigs are dead (I don't see TM's 1-shot dayvig ability as really being a vig; I don't really see myself as a real vig, either), so suggesting that, even in the scenario you mentioned, it is unwinnable for town unless we keep scum NKs high is a bit ridiculous.
Also, why are you, like cd, making the assumption that SK is going to kill randomly? Regardless of the probability the SK is better off keeping mafia alive, especially if that SK has special powers (NK-immunity, etc.). I would imagine Sephiroth having some special abilities compared to Dyne, and NK immunity is a logical one.
Also, the small scum groups now will make kills that are similar to the SK. They will not actively go after the other scum group because it is still too early, with 13 players (I think the odds of 3 mafia and 1 SK are much higher than the alternative 5 mafia and 1 SK).
And, you're also not taking into other factors like NK-immunity that scum (SK/bulletproof/Godfathers) could have, so your calculated odds of scum killing each other are not necessarily correct.
I think MBL is correct that 40% scum seems unbalanced against town. A 3-3-2 makes more sense, and in that case, SK would definately prefer to kill town ATM.
So, we should go after the lone Shinra or SK, although stumbling into a Turk lynch is second best. A guaranteed Turk lynch (e.g., through a cop claim) is probably better than what we have to work with now, but I prefer a Shinra/Sephiroth lynch, if I could choose.

[CarnCarn]

cd, some questions:

Just looking at the flavor again.

iLord was obviously killed by Sephiroth during N1;

and the massive bullet hole narrows it right down to who done the shooting too [game fans just have to think about that one, really. Needless to say it all reeks of Vendetta].

Just looking at the flavor again.

iLord was obviously killed by Sephiroth during N1; and the massive bullet hole narrows it right down to who done the shooting too [game fans just have to think about that one, really. Needless to say it all reeks of Vendetta].

That leaves two ordinary shootings on the townies and I'd say that as good as confirms we've got more than one Shinra Hitman. On a quick reread I've got a few suspicions but nothing that really sits as comfortably as taking out ABR for his insanely anti-town behavior in D1.

Also, Armlx I'd say that the N1 deaths and the lynch have given us a pretty good idea that this game is running strictly on the same good/evil tracks as the game.

Reno was scum.

Bug, Barret and Dio were Town, pretty much as you were really.

I wouldn't rule out a few surprises down the line but I severely doubt any of the major good or evil roles would be reversed.

I'm not sure i agree with this entire post. Sepiroth would make the most sense o kill someone with a sword, but for it to be obviously the case i dunno, same with the bullet holes, still could be anyone. As far as it being a shinra hitman that killed the townies, again, not sure if that is the case. It could have been a non-shinra vig.

I can only think of one character that would leave a large bullet hole. I'm not going to name him though.

As for vigilantes that kill with bullets... you are pretty much restricted to Shinra and two others guys in the game for bog standard bullets I think.

One of the other guys is dead and as much as I can see the other one fitting nicely in to a vindictive Vig role, I don't think he'll have made it in to the game, his role is pretty subdued.

Bolded parts for emphasis.
I'm not a game fan, so I don't know what you mean by your clue about Vendetta. Is this supposed character pro or anti-town?
Why aren't you going to say who you think it was?
Who are you talking about being dead, etc.

[CarnCarn]

I will be V/LA 12/3-12/4

[CarnCarn]

^^Irony there. wolframnhart is actively scumhunting?

[CarnCarn]

Yeah.

[CarnCarn]

An open question to everyone:

1. Yosarian2
3. Empking
4. wolframnhart
5. iamausername
10. Cephrir
11. Jebus
12. Grimmy
13. Cavebear with a toothache
14. christiano drago
20. CarnCarn
22. Zakeri
25. MrBuddyLee
26. Natirasha

Which of these players are playing like they want to lay low and avoid attention in order to survive, rather than hunt the remaining 4 scum?

I don't think we've heard much from

Yosarian2

at all this game. The general sense I get from reading his posts is that he has been mostly defensive. His only real scumhunting was against ABR on D2, where he argued the SK argument (which I also believed, but for other reasons).

Empking

really just seems himself this game. There are a couple things that stick out, though. One, why did think that people didn't want a hammer on xtoxm D1? He was way ahead in the count and lying to boot. It's just strange and he hasn't said anything about it yet.

wolframnhart

was my suspicion for Sephiroth last night, but I am fairly certain he is not anymore. wolf has been relatively quiet the whole game. His Lowell vote yesterday didn't seem like it came with much conviction or justification, but it was the first vote. At this point though, he could still be Turk or Shinra.

IAAUN

. I don't have a good read on him at all, and it kind of bothers me. Everything he says seems carefully planned. That's obviously not a serious accusation, but right now I have no read on him. Tilting town lately because of his increased scumhunting, but as MBL said, scum would be just as likely to do that as town.

Cephrir

. Bah, I haven't been able to give much time to the Cephrir/cd conflict yesterday. Cephrir is scummy, though, for a number of reasons. First, I have yet to see him scumhunt at all this game. Also, yesterday, he made a comment that Jebus was most scummy, according to MBL's argument, but he choose to put his vote somewhere else. This seems like careless scum play, to me, perhaps trying to distance from a partner without putting them in any danger.

Jebus

. Well, he's Jebus. Haven't been able to get a great read, but appears mildly suspicious from my angle. Possible connections to Yosarian2 and strongly advocates hunting for Turks today. Yeah, I'd say possible Shinra combination.

Grimmy

. Lurkerfest here, nothing special. That's Grimmy for you. His contributions have been spectacularly worthless. Not even voting yesterday.

Cavebear with a toothache

. Lurkerfest with Grimmy perhaps. His most substantial contributions came D1, but they are somewhat suspect. He appears to be very concerned with keeping the two claimed daycops alive. He even comes up with a system from trying to confirm them of all things. Not sure what that means about his alignment, but he has been extremely quiet later in the game.

christiano drago

is an enthusiastic fan of the game and provided useful insight into the flavor for us non-game fans. I have no reason to doubt his motives at this time.

CarnCarn

. Well, that's me. I replaced in a mega lurker and have been pretty active since then. I thought ABR was very likely Sephiroth D2 based on my info about N1, which I shared with everyone. I was on the Lowell wagon early yesterday and made my contributions to the case against him. I realize that I seem scummy because ABR died N2, but there's not much I can do except say again that I didn't do it. At that point, scum either bought the SK argument or were trying to frame me. I also see the point that cd brought up about the flavor, saying that Cait Sith was originally a Shinra spy. I don't know too much about the game, but it seems like a lot of good guy characters are ex-Shinra or ex-Turk anyway, and I believe my character sacrificed himself for the good guys, which would be the ultimate tell of alignment.

Zakeri

claimed RedXIII. I have not reason at all to doubt his claim, but as I mentioned before, Godfather possibilities for Shinra should make his "innocents" not confirmed to be non-Shinra.

MrBuddyLee

is either town scumhunting like crazy or a scum making a show. I'm not sure which it is. His redundant vote for CML could be sloppy Shinra distancing, but I don't think MBL is that sloppy. Still, a possibility to keep in the back of my mind. Wants to get rid of Shinras and SK today, argues that that could make him a Turk. OMGobvscum! Nah, but it's WIFOMy as hell. Overall, I don't have a good enough tell on him either way.

Natirasha

is a crazy guy. Doubtful Shinra since he voted CML so early and kept his vote. Even had a chance to hammer ABR based on SK argument late in the day, but didn't. Yeah, seems very not-Shinra. I'm interested in what Empking means by "Nat is too helpful for Nat"; I haven't played in any other games with Nat, but he has a reputation for crazy play. Hard to get a read on him because of this.

Overall, I think my position should currently be:

Vote: Cephrir

And (in no particular order) mass

FoSes to: Yosarian2, Jebus, Cavebear with a toothache, Grimmy, IAAUN, Empking, MrBuddyLee

[CarnCarn]

But generally I prefer to avoid it until there's a real need to.

OK, gonna have to catch up with stuff. I agree with this, though. What is MBL's reasoning behind massclaiming now?

[CarnCarn]

In the second, we'd essentially get confirmation one way or the other on Zakeri from a Turk cop claim or lack thereof. If there isn't one, it would seem pretty trivial that Zakeri would be the lynch, and we could figure one other liar from the four remaining party members. If there is one, it'd be trickier, since we wouldn't immediately be able to tell this apart from the four-man scum team case, so we'd have two scum in CarnCarn and the two non-Turk cop claims, and wouldn't know it right off. But with less scum, we'd have more leeway to get away with trusting them initially, at least.

I am really confused about how a Turk cop claim means I am possible scum. Not following the logic in this paragraph.
Didn't you say in the 4-man scum case that scum teams wouldn't get party member safe claims? With less scum, I think the claims would be less believable, according to your theory, since then the groups could have party member safe claims.

If

we

the two scum teams started with four members each

Also, anyone else catch this?

[CarnCarn]

Let me clarify my position on the massclaim: I don't think there is a need for it now.

If in fact the scum are almost at parity with the town here (as some scenarios have suggested), then massclaiming really decreases our chances of making a comeback. It could not only out a remaining turk-cop, but also any other important roles (vig, doc, etc.) that will be almost necessary for winning. I think massclaim now could just give the scum too much info in return for very little.
And if there are only ~4 scum or so, then massclaiming probably won't help much either because, as IAAUN suggested, they might have strong party claims for starting off with fewer numbers. So far though, the two lynched scum (CML, Lowell), have had bland safeclaims (especially for SK; if anyone would get a better safeclaim, I would have thought SKs would).

In short, I think massclaiming now will out protown power roles and hand the game to the scum.

I also find IAAUN and Yos2's support for massclaiming here to be out of place. Yos2's reasoning is that it would "make it harder for them [scum] to hide," but I don't know why he thinks this is true.
IAAUN's reason is that it would allow us to semi-confirm Zakeri as town (not fully, because of scum-cop theory) or as scum. He also gives some setup speculation about safeclaims in 3 vs. 4 man scum teams, and even says that massclaiming could produce results that are inconclusive (if in fact a Turk cop claims), yet he still supports massclaim. The logic in 1670 just seems... forced.

I'm going to

Unvote: Cephrir

, who seems... compliant, now. I don't know if that is more likely a scum or town response, though. Still

IGMEOY

.
And

Vote: IAAUN

for pushing massclaim on forced logic in 1670.

[CarnCarn]

Assumptions:
1. Being on one town wagon makes a player slightly more likely to be scum
2. Frequently being on multiple town wagons makes a player much more likely to be scum

I think these assumptions need to be challenged given the setup and history of this game. Here are some points:

1. Multiple scum groups, possibly large, make it no less likely for scum to be on scum wagons.
2. D1 saw a player (xtoxm) perform some very scummy actions. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.
3. D2 was a realization that ABR lied horribly about his own role in order to "push the xtoxm lynch" which many found to be scummy. Also, seemed like there was a good possibility of him being SK. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.

[CarnCarn]

Wow, that's interesting.

Unvote

Role and targets make sense. Vincent is a major character, right? That puts the massclaim suggestion in more perspective, too.
Unless someone counters, I'm willing to believe IAAUN's claim.
While I said it is preferable to kill Shinra or Sephiroth today, I think a guilty Turk lynch would be good, too. I will vote Cavebear if there is no counterclaim and if town thinks this is the best play today.
Now that the Turk-cop has claimed, I'm going to reconsider the massclaim idea and fathom if it's any more reasonable now.

[CarnCarn]

Wow, this just gets more interesting. IAAUN's comment D2 about doing a read from iLord Turk's perspective rings a bit hollow to me now.
I'm trying to figure out who is telling the truth here. I'm confused why IAAUN would try to fakeclaim Vincent, unless it's a huge, huge town gambit that makes ABR's look pale by comparison. If he was Turk, there is no way he could have known who the real Vincent (Turk cop) is, right? The motive for IAAUN to lie isn't adding up to me (unless he saw his wagon and thought he was going to be lynched today, but that's not looking too likely). And if IAAUN is scum, then he had to have it planned to go after Cavebear from the start of the day. Maybe he thought he was an easy "lurker" target?
Now, Machiavellian-Mafia

does

have a reason to fakeclaim, because otherwise it looks like he would be lynched. But, his claim seems reasonable at the same time. The breadcrumbing is a strong point in his favor, though, I think.

And Yos2's comment above:

Vote:Machiavellian-Mafia

Good, I was hoping we'd lynch a Turk scum today.

Seems really out of place/not in line with anything he's said today. More credibility to M-M's claim.
And this would just be hilarious if Yos2 really is a Turk:

Might be being slightly pedantic but something really tugs at me about the fact that after 1600 posts so far, and a lot of use of the group name "Shinra" and it being in the night kill and lynch results... you're still spelling it oddly..

Uh...I tend to mis-spell names wrong a lot, especally stuff I don't type much. Are you seriously trying to claim that that's some kind of scum-tell?

Plus, this:

Look, we're going to lynch you, and you're going to come up Turk. That's inevitable now, you might as well use this time to your advantage. Have the Turks figured out who anyone in the alternate scum group is? Have you tried to kill anyone and failed, making them probably the SK? Help the town lynch the other scum who aren't in your group, you also increase your groups chances of wining here.

Would come from a Turk, too.

Vote: Yosarian2

[CarnCarn]

Phew, one final exam done! /off topic

Unvote: Yosarian2

Wow, not sure why I decided to vote Yos2. Probably all that cramming messing with my head. And there is no reason to be voting him now, anyway.

I'm really confused about the whole situation now. M-M saying the mod sent him new information about Yos2 vs. the point that Cavebear was likely inactive over the night break. I'm going to do what MBL suggested: go back and do a close re-read of the two before I make any decisions.

Yos2, what do you think of the new information? Does this make M-M less scummy in your view?

[CarnCarn]

A couple notable things from a read-through of Cavebear with a toothache:

Cavebear/Machiavellian-Mafia: Possible Turk cop?

This D1 post questioning xtoxm and ABR about their role mechanics may be him trying to figure out if they are lying (post 2):

It's interesting to me that the cop claims don't actually contradict each other: Having two scum groups (Shinra Inc and Sephiroth clones/Cult of Jenova/whatever you want to call them) doesn't sound all that unlikely to me (it's a large game after all), and if so, separate cops works. If so, I'd expect them to work in about the same way, from a purely mechanical point of view. So before we lynch anyone, I'd very much like these questions answered, first by Xtoxm and then Albert B. Rampage:
- Both of you: When can you send in the target of your investigation, and when do you get the result?
- Does it, anywhere in your roles, explicitly state that you detect scum and/or that you are cops?
- Are there any other restrictions or defining features that can help distinguish your role from "normal" cops and/or someone faking? Not counting formatting or anything else you shouldn't be quoting.
- ABR: I'm a bit confused by your claim. Do you detect raised levels of Mako energy or Jenova cells? From what I remember/could find on FFVII, Jenova cells and Mako, this isn't the same thing (from what I understand, everyone with Jenova cells would have higher Mako rates, but higher Mako rates doesn't imply Jenova cells.)

And moreover (post 3):

So, cavebear, do you believe xtoxm?

Ask me again when he and ABR has answered my questions.

Looks like he is trying to confirm one of them as the real cop.

But is this contradicted by his post 5?:

Hmm. Xtoxm's behaviour has been erratic to say the least (claiming day cop with instant investigation and a guilty on your wagon in a pressured situation really sounds bad) but, since ABR apparently has almost the same role, seems believable to me. The odds of hitting scum on your own wagon like that is probably pretty low, esp. if there are two scum groups and you can only find one, but what are the odds that he's faking a day cop role that targets different baddies than the other day cop but have a similar pm and the same instant investigation? If he just got that out of thin air, I'll be very impressed indeed. As for Bugenhagen being cop, a) I'd pretty much expect him to have some sort of information role (or maybe being an inventor or something), b) it's really no weirder IMO than Cid being one. I'd expect Bugenhagen to be in the game as well.

All that being said:

Vote: armlx.

ABR: Since this is based on you not faking your claim, I'd very much like to know if you ARE faking your claim after all in some misguided attempt to get Xtoxm lynched. Just saying.

Possibly. But, even if he was the real Turk cop, he would be confused that both players claimed to have the same role mechanics. He also bases his analysis on the assumption that ABR is not fake-claiming, as a way to get around everything.
I'm not sure whether the Turk cop/Shinra cop would be scum themselves or town. Gut says they would be town, especially if scum have large (4+) groups.
Cavebear's posts are reading somewhat protown to me. Can't find anything really scummy in my reading of them.

[CarnCarn]

iamausername is

Shinra

, and a member of his team is capable of investigating to find Turks.

What do you think of IAAUN being so early on the CML wagon, then? He basically started that wagon, although he did hop off for a bit.

[CarnCarn]

I don't want to leap to conclusions here, but is a god father less game common at MS? Because if they're not [and since both groups had respective leaders in the game] it's more raised eyebrows in the direction of Carn Carn for trying to make us think like there aren't any godfathers.

cd, what are you talking about? I've mentioned godfathers before any of this Turk cop stuff.

With the turk cop out in the open, mass claiming is the order of the day we have six results to check the claims against, and it will give us an excellent chance of working out exactly who we need to kill.

The list seems narrow enough: IAAUN or Machiavellian-Mafia. Not sure how massclaiming will narrow it down even more.

[CarnCarn]

By the way, could you explain in a little more detail exactally why you jumped to believe MM and follow his claimed guilty on me, even though his whole "I have the exact same rolename as the guy who just claimed a guilty on me" defense seems pretty improbable? This question also applies to Zakeri and to MrBuddyLee. I really think we need all three of you to explain, in some detail, exactally why you rushed to believe him in that situation, and all three of you need to do so now, before we end the day; because if MM does come up scum, as seems likely, I'm going to be looking at the three of you tommorow when looking for his scumbuddies.

Well, I guess it's worth revealing this now (read everything in full please):

I investigated Cavebear N2 and his alignment was revealed to me as "town."

Yes, I lied about being roleblocked to IAAUN and my "suspicions" of Cavebear D3 were an attempt to keep him from getting scum NK'd. It seems to have worked. There was no reason for me to disclose this result at the start of D3. I hope you can see that.
When IAAUN started today by attacking Cavebear, I thought nothing of it, just let it slide. I would have claimed the result if he was in any danger, but he wasn't.
After IAAUN claimed Turk cop, you'll notice that I was puzzled, perhaps thinking my result was my character being nieve, but I didn't vote, and I was very specific about waiting for a counterclaim.
When M-M countered, my result made sense again, but I truly couldn't figure out why IAAUN would make such a brash claim to get a lurker lynched. Something still seemed out of place, but I decided to go with what my investigation told me, and went with the result of M-M (which was that you were a Turk).
I'm still puzzled as hell about my sanity given how ridiculous IAAUN would be to fakeclaim here just to get one mislynch. But the other part of me wants to think my investigation is accurate, too. I'm still debating what is the correct play here, but I'm leaning towards lynching IAAUN at the moment (if only because, in the 50/50 situation, I could find out if my sanity is sane or not). Cavebear/M-M's claim seems OK because of a lot of breadcrumbing.

[CarnCarn]

Finally, Carn claimed cop (I guess generic cop?), and is claiming he got an innocent on MM. (Also, Carn is the only one who didn't claim a rolename; this is just an observation, I don't really see a need for Carn to claim a rolename now if he dosn't want to.)

I've claimed already. I am Cait Sith, Jack of All Trades role. My N1 action was vig kill ABR (didn't go through for some reason), N2 was investigate Cavebear with a toothache (got "town"), N3 was roleblock wolframnhart/KScope (assuming this went through, he is not the SK).

[CarnCarn]

Wow, Zakeri was the L-1 vote and Jebus for the hammer vote on me. Thanks to you 2 for not paying attention, the real vincent is now lynched.

Yikes, I didn't realize the votes coming so quickly. There was no need to rush, except for the Turks, obviously.

Good luck with your night action, CarnCarn. Unless you're scum.

Yeah, I honestly have no idea why I'm still alive right now. I think the scum on both teams have bigger fish to fry than me, though, right now.

Also, good shooting, to any vigs out there.

Yos2, if MBL is really Turk, then why wasn't he voting M-M? Or are you saying they are both Shinra? Seems unlikely for IAAUN to be Shinra, since he led the CML wagon.

Gah, this all sucks for town, though.

[CarnCarn]

What happened to Sephiroth's kill?

[CarnCarn]

Or the other scum team's for that matter.

or my investigation while we're at it.

Wait, you didn't get an investigation result?

[CarnCarn]

^^^I ask that because I thought I figured out a lot of what happened last night.

[CarnCarn]

Also, Carn is right, there seem to be a few missing kills. If anyone is a roleblocker who thinks they might have stopped a kill, you might want to claim today, before we lynch Iamusername.

Are you sure about this? I think a roleblocker should stay hidden until tomorrow, even if they have a "result." Why? Because they have a chance to prevent another kill, and we already have a lynch lined up for today.

[CarnCarn]

I assumed Shinra's kill didn't go through because as was broached yesterday that might have been their final scum kill [having gone through on the death of Scarlet]. I'm simply carrying an idea forward from the day before.

Horseshit.

[CarnCarn]

Also, Carn is right, there seem to be a few missing kills. If anyone is a roleblocker who thinks they might have stopped a kill, you might want to claim today, before we lynch Iamusername.

Are you sure about this? I think a roleblocker should stay hidden until tomorrow, even if they have a "result." Why? Because they have a chance to prevent another kill, and we already have a lynch lined up for today.

Hmmm...I donno, with up to 3 killing scum groups, in a game this small, seems like the risk of the roleblocker dying tonight without sharing the key information might be too high. Yeah, we're goig to kill Iamusername today, but we still will need that information.

See, the strange thing is, Zakeri was blocked and there should logically be no reason for that. I don't think a protown RB would have done it, and there doesn't seem any reason for a Turk RB to do it either.
On top of that strangeness, I was

also

blocked (and I'm not lying this time; if I ever go back on this, lynch me). I had Kill on IAAUN, but it didn't go through. I'm not sure why a protown RB would target me, so my initial guess at daybreak, given the night info, was that the Turk RB blocked me, MBL protected me, and the Shinra tried to NK me. I'm not sure of this anymore, though, given Zakeri was blocked.

Please remove your horseshit?

There is basically no way Shinra would be a two-man scum group in a 25 player game. Citing obvscum comments as the basis for your thoughts doesn't help, either.

[CarnCarn]

Three man scum group was my thinking. RB, Goon, Godfather. With the Godfather afraid of getting his hands dirty.

Oh, but now you're backtracking since you first said that you assumed Scarlet was the final Shinra. This is more realistic but I don't see any reason for a GF to not kill anyone last night.

[CarnCarn]

I was not blocked. There was a minor discrepancy that's been fixed now.

But I don't really believe it's true. Coupled with your general actions and attitude, your recent scum tell of knowing who's kill was blocked and stumbling around trying to make it sound like something town you, and then how hard you tried pushing the ABR lynch as a good lynch in what I can only describe as an attempt to rescue CallMeLiam on day 2 ...

I'm pretty sure the reason I haven't been killed since my roleclaim was because I was inherently Anti-Town ever since Scarlet Died. The only person left would be Rufus, The Likely Godfather, correct? And as the godfather role goes, the Investigation results in seeing him as a townie right? I thought it was weird I managed to survive the last two nights but it makes sense when you think about it that way.

Anyway, I investigated christiano drago, but the result came as such a surprise to me since I have him completely pegged as Shinra. He turned up Innocent...

Vote: IAmAUserName

grammar fixes, it should read better now.

Well, if you weren't blocked then my theory above still holds.
So, IAAUN is at L-2. I'm not sure if we will get anything more today, unless people think Yos2's plan about an RB claiming makes sense. He's right that, with possibly 3 NKs, it's possible we could lose the RB overnight, as well as any "result" they have.

[CarnCarn]

Right. Cuz we totally trust you. I expect one of the teams will kill me tonight anyway, but your team was lucky I didn't vig you last night (well not really lucky; you obviously planned to RB me, but w/e).

[CarnCarn]

vote: iamausername

CarnCarn is Shinra, btw. Laters.

Do you have reasons?

I don't think the CD thing is exceptionally scummy but it is scummy.

He probably deduced something incorrectly from his team's block.

His suicide gambit really makes little sense, or it could give some info. If he is the RB, then it makes no sense for him to sucide for a cop if the GF is immune anyway. Either the GF is not investigation-immune or there are more than 3 members, or both. He could be GF trying to protect his RB, but this also seems too rash.
I'm actually hoping I get NK-targeted, especially by his team. I think I owe them... something.

[CarnCarn]

wait. would prefer to see the conclusion of this game.

[CarnCarn]

i don't have any experience with modding, but would sending in role PMs to a backup mod be enough to keep this going? Or are there notes and stuff that only Elias/DR would have?

[CarnCarn]

I don't like the CD roleblock because you were roleblocking someone who claimed vanilla under no pressure at all (slipped up, really).
But, with 2 docs dead (and 2 kills last night), a RB would be useful to us if he's town. Emp really hasn't pinged my scumdar at all this game, so I'll have to think more about this whole thing.

Why are you voting me, Emp?

[CarnCarn]

I don't remember my reasons but -

Nat
Kloud
IAAUN
CD

Interesting list, actually. Please try to remember the reasons and share them.

[CarnCarn]

Also, Empking should claim targets.

Vote: CarnCarn

I can use my AVALANCHE training to overpower them stopping them from doing any actions.

I don't remember my reasons but -

Nat
Kloud
IAAUN
CD

[CarnCarn]

First, what Cephrir said.

I'm voting you because I don't think scum would do what IAAUN did unless you were scum.

Saying someone is on another scum team? Why wouldn't scum say that about a protown PR?

Which reminds me that I should claim my action last night, since I've claimed a PR already: I targeted Jebus and it protected him last night (not what I wanted).

That made it a win-draw situation then. It meant I was unlikely to target a town power role.

Bull. How many town PRs are left? All 3 cops (SK, Turk, Shinra) are dead. A Doc and Jailkeeper are dead. If you're willing to believe IAAUN that I'm Shinra, then why didn't you RB me?
The only reason is that you're not town at all. If you're town and you thought I was scum based on what he said, you would have RB'd me. Instead, you're lying scum who thinks I'm opposite mafia and didn't target me because you thought it would stop an NK.

This is the major flaw in the claim, I believe, and it's enough to make me:

Vote: Empking

[CarnCarn]

Night 3: wolframnhart targeted no one.

oh btw, this makes sense with what I said about RBing wolframnhart Night 3, so if you're looking for something to back up my claim, here is something. Not sure if any of my other actions can be confirmed until massclaim, though.

[CarnCarn]

Why did the night kill flavors get removed? I assumed Sephiroth (Cephrir) was the one doing the Slashing kills.
Did you get a power from killing Cloud? Your daykill perhaps?

Nat got his tracking ability from killing ABR.

Yosarian2, permission to use the following quote in my sig?:

Albert counterclaims...holy crap, this just keeps getting dumber and dumber.

Precisely my thought as I was reading through the game after replacing in.

[CarnCarn]

Wait, Nat actually was a tracker?

Yeah, after we killed ABR. I wonder what the other abilities would have been. Grimmy needed to kill Vincent and MBP/RBT needed to kill Yuffie. I assumed it would be the same abilities the dead person has, but Elias said it's not necessarily the case.

Yeah, after Nat killed ABR, he got the tracker ability as well as the safeclaim. It worked well for us until we both got NK'd. By process of elimination, I figured yesterday that Cephrir was the SK and one of Yos2/Kscope was the Turk GF (leaning Yos2 because of his reaction to being called out by M-M).

Still wondering who won this one - I assume rightly this would have been an SK win for Cephrir if he were allowed to use the daykill.