FFVII Mafia: Over

[armlx]

So much fail from MBF.

oogey boogy

Vote MBF

[armlx]

I'm down with it. Honestly, not even wanting a role claim, just a flavor claim? Scummy.

Unvote, Vote xtoxm

[armlx]

EBWODP: Especially as he was in Darkstalkers, a DR game, was scum, and knew every scum had a safe claim there.

[armlx]

Xtoxm, like I said, as town you would know better. Mafia might even have false claim full roles like they did in that game.

[armlx]

It doesn't seem to incredibly hurt town

Role name info in a well designed game doesn't give the uninformed groups any more info.

[armlx]

Classic move. Buddy up to 1 attacker, OMGUS the other.

[armlx]

And he's just pulled this argument out of nowhere i've never even seen before and trying to say it's a reason i'm scum.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7687

Game for reference.....

[armlx]

Xtoxm, honestly, if you are gonna pre-emptive claim, at least throw out flavor in a theme game....

[armlx]

No, I just called you out on the "I've never even seen before" nonsense. You have seen it.

[armlx]

I still see no role name.....

[armlx]

I repeat. Why would I lie? Even as scum, there is no point. I assure you, I am being completely honest.

You have a history of making dumb lies as scum.

See Pick Your Poison 3.

[armlx]

This is epic lulz.

BTW, to elaborate on xtoxm's dumb lie in PYP3, he claimed he wasn't posting in game b/c he was on LA. Profile -> See all posts by -> He's been posting like 15-20 times a day since he last posted......

[armlx]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=725

Yeah, read that page, and the next couple. Definitely not a lie.

[armlx]

Jester is not a real role. People who know better who bring it up are scummy.

[armlx]

I can't believe are taking Xtoxm's claims after the first seriously....

[armlx]

I honestly could care less if ABR is actually claiming or fake claiming to prove that people are gullible. The fact is xtoxm lied about his role for no reason, especially because his first claim was early and unprompted.

[armlx]

EBWODP: Everyone also has to realize that if xtoxm didn't claim day cop here, he was going to be lynched. This way he gets to mise a mislynch out of it if people listen, possibly more if he randomly guess right.

FOS Zak

specifically for saying he doesn't believe xtoxm and still acting as if he does.

[armlx]

Xtoxm, what is wrong with this summation of the scenario.

1. You pushed a mass claim of roles with the knowledge that scum were likely to have fake claims based on a past DR game.
2. You were attacked by 4-5 people.
3. You claimed vanilla.
4. You were asked to give flavor. You refused.
5. You claimed again, this time day cop with a guilty on someone who attacked you.
6. You were asked again for flavor, and this time left it up to other players to fill in the blanks on your flavor claim.

[armlx]

Directly lying isn't going to help you when the proof is right here in the thread.

You said you were a German philosopher and waited for other people to extrapolate from that to clarify.

[armlx]

What, so you're trying to say that I said that by complete coincidence, and it was a lucky guess?

I'm more making the point you were deliberately difficult with your claim for no real reason.

[armlx]

Why am I even bothering arguing with you...I know you are scum...

I know you are scum as you are lying.

See, I can do the same thing. We are arguing to convince other people we are right. The fact you don't want to do this....

[armlx]

Lynching a "Day Cop" who first false claimed vanilla at L-6ish on Day One is a no brainer.

Fixed, and yes it is.

[armlx]

Admittedly the vanilla claim was a sticking point for me, but I'm old fashioned in that it'd take a lot for me to lynch a day-cop on day one.

So, in your opinion, how big of a scum tell is lying about your role?

[armlx]

Can you explain why xtoxm would want to fake claim at L-6ish or whatever it was?

[armlx]

Please look back and read again if you didn't catch it the first time.

I didn't. Link plz.

We'll have a night behind us and probably a couple of bodies are s'more results so we can eye him up closer.

What does this mean?

[armlx]

I realize, but honestly what "solid information" do you expect to have that you don't already, besides presumably my alignment if he is still alive.

[armlx]

Xtoxm, at exactly what point did you day cop me?

Oh, and the exact number for claim was.... L-10

[armlx]

So, cavebear, do you believe xtoxm?

[armlx]

ABR has in fact fake claimed in the past as town for dumb reasons. That is why in every analysis of the scenario I have presented I have pretty much ignored the "counter claim".

[armlx]

For him to get more mislynches, you'd have to be the one to randomly have been guessed right. On top of that, you'd have to be aligned with Shinra upon death. Anything else, and he dies. No if's, and's, or but's about it.

Or he could just be scum who thought he was going to be lynched regardless, in which case he attempt to take down a townie with him.

[armlx]

It sets him up for the "Guess I'm not sane" excuse, which at this rate people might buy.

[armlx]

(That said, you are right, if people auto lynch him if I turn non-Shinra, he only gets 1 mislynch. My main point was that he gets 1 more then 0).

[armlx]

This is assuming that ABR would not lie as town.

This is a bad assumption.

MBL, are you suggesting a scum day cop?

With ABR's post, it seems so much like what a mod might send him in a PM, i would think that he would have been mod killed had it been a real claim.

This is the worst reason to disbelieve a claim ever given the fact the claim was like 2 lines long. I've seen this be valid before, but not here.

[armlx]

Why is it valid somewhere else and not here?

If it was more elaborate you might have a point. Much more elaborate.

[armlx]

XTOXM, WHEN DID YOU USE YOUR DAY COP ABILITY?

Do not ignore questions plz.

[armlx]

Eh, since the Xtomx debate ended, there isn't really that much to talk about.

It ended?

[armlx]

Ok. And that's a reason to stop talking/progressing the game?

[armlx]

Eh, I hadn't been posting much during it either actually.

Why?

[armlx]

I think my playstyle would be defined as an active lurker one, rather accurately personally.

Do you have examples to back this up?

[armlx]

To those who said ABR's claim was "conveniently" timed, why was xtoxm's not?

[armlx]

To a scum, a 1:1 death ratio is terrible, and there wouldn't be any initiative to do this on day 1.

Except if, like xtoxm, you had a building wagon on you are were likely to be lynched.... 0 for 1 < 1 for 1.

I don't get what Zac is doing, but it definitely deserves a

FOS Zac

.

[armlx]

Zac...appears to be trying to distract us but I'm not sure if it's because he's new or because he just slipped as scum. I gotta admit I agree with an FoS:Zac.

Actually, not sure on the distraction thing. I'm leaning more OMGUS to being questioned.

[armlx]

Would have to be a very rookie move to react that badly to scum-mate getting even a tiny bit of mild questioning.

Except Zac fell into said group that IAUN was questioning.

[armlx]

But it's still an odd reaction when it's a simple question :S.

I agree, hence the FOS.

[armlx]

Umm, that's definitely not a case of that IAUN.

[armlx]

What? How is "I think they could be Lovers" not speculating about town roles?

He's justifying a pattern, and lovers isn't the most high profile role to be digging at....

[armlx]

See, what cludsy did was speculation. No one respond to his post. Oh, and what CD said about Aeris. That kind of posting does nothing to help us.

[armlx]

I'm a townie, i've no reason to lie about it.

Epic lulz in combo with the fact he is now pretty much confirmed lying about it.

[armlx]

He still hasn't answered my question.........

[armlx]

And the comment that implied he knew my alignment was really scummy as well.

[armlx]

Specific reasons?

[armlx]

I see. I was wondering as I don't remember seeing anything out of character from Emp.

Do you not agree that the slip there from TM is worth looking at though?

[armlx]

Fair nuff.

More xtoxm lynching then?

[armlx]

The backwardsness of accepting a counter claim making the first more likely blows my mind.

[armlx]

What specific corresponding details are you citing between the two?

[armlx]

I still want xtoxm to answer my question.

[armlx]

The fact he didn't answer it while he was around is telling.

[armlx]

At this point, I'd have no rela problem with side-stepping the chaotic mess that is Xtoxm\ABR\Armlx and just lynching Zac.

FOS iamliam

No. You have a scenario where 1 of 2 people is confirmed lying. Why sidestep that.

That said, I find the unvoting of Xtox a little odd considering how damn sure people were that he's scum yesterday...

This.

[armlx]

Err,

FOS CallMeLiam

. Fixed.

[armlx]

I am willing to go along with the claimed cop (the one i can believe more) with his guilty investigation.

And this ISN'T ABR?

[armlx]

Hmm.... well, we got a possible cop saying that Xtomx is a scum, and not a jester. Should I go ahead and hammer him?

Again the Jester talk.

And if Xtoxm turns town, with the char he claimed to be, what happens then? Armlx ge lynched day 2?

Or vig killed N1.

Also is Xtoxm turns scum, again then what? We really haven't discussed much else.

We analyze the wagon tomorrow and see what else came up. I don't see why that's an issue.

And Wolf, he's not asking if he can hammer. He is saying he is going to and everyone else should speak now or hope they live till tomorrow. Big difference.

[armlx]

Oh, not GW. I thought you meant GhostWriter.

Yeah, what MBP said definitely falls under scummy for that reason. He's on my short list for tomorrow, along with Zac and some more people once I reread how the wagon went down.

[armlx]

And faking voting too? The list is getting shorter by the minute.

[armlx]

I haven't claimed.

[armlx]

Generally, you shouldn't ask for a claim, unless it's a "claim now or die" type of situation.

This.

[armlx]

I'm unimpressed with the ABR wagon. It was fucking obvious they were both lying from the moment both claimed.

[armlx]

Moving along.

Vote zac

Opportunistic vote on a townie, attack of IAUN for making the relevant post, etc etc.

[armlx]

EBWODP: The fact xtoxm was town is also really relevant. I'm going to go back and look at each of the strong proponents of my lynch over his, as said lynch would be a double mislynch in the making.

[armlx]

If I didn't know Wolf usually posts like that, it would be scummy.

[armlx]

There are 14 people not voting. I expect each of them to have placed a vote in the next 7 days.

[armlx]

I don't mind if they aren't voting, I would just like to see them chime in with something, a thought, a disagreement, a person they believe to be more scummy etc.

That's a very loose definition of doing something. Mine makes sure everyone actually shows up and contributes an equivalent level of content, or is criticized appropriately for reasonless votes.

[armlx]

That said, if your vote would put someone at L-3 or above (stretching the boundary to ensure carefulness in not just having a lynch happen), replace it with an FOS.

[armlx]

Thanks for the protip.

fos: armlx

I'm interested, why FOS not vote?

[armlx]

Eh, as stated, he has a meta for this, but it would be a great meta if he was scum.

The point of meta like that is it means an action normally scummy for a player isn't in that one extreme case.

Plus... why would he out himself as Cid if he was Cid?
As said, Cid is a major character, and I am pretty sure major characters will be great scum targets.

Except that in a well designed theme game, character power/relevance in the subject matter may or may not equal character power in the game.

[armlx]

Just wondering, but I noticed Barret was a townie, I thought he was Shinra, or am I thinking of someone else?

From reading the Wiki article, you are definitely thinking of someone else.

[armlx]

Grimmy, that's dumb. There's no reason to assume there would be a connection between role power and role name.

Barret was a townie. just saying.

[armlx]

Ah, misread lines, my bad MBL.

My main point still stands. If there is a non-ABR Cid, counter claim please.

[armlx]

a) It can also serve the purpose I see you using right now; an oblique means of downplaying scummy behavior as an appeal to tradition.

Except its not an appeal to tradition. It has a statistical basis.

Each scum tell is a scum tell because it is more likely the player does it as scum then they do it as town. If a player is equally likely as scum and town to do a specific action, it is not a tell. ABR is equally likely to lie about his role like that as town and scum as proved by previous games, so while in the majority of the MS population that's a strong scum tell, in his case it means nothing.

[armlx]

While ABR lying about his role might not be a scum tell, it's still anti-town and a bad play.

I agree here. But people need to note lynching someone for anti-town/bad play that doesn't imply they are scum is suboptimal unless that is all their behavior consists of and there are no other legitimately good options.

I fully expect all the playable characters of the game to be town,

Not sure here. Its likely, but you can't rule out a playable character as a safe claim. Again, citing Darkstalkers, my safe claim as cult leader was John Talbain, apparently one of the "main" characters.

As for main characters as targets, I'll restate: In a well balanced theme game based on a movie/game/book/etc. , there is not necessarily a correlation between importance/major flavor of character in subject matter to in game.

[armlx]

Cavebear, I agree most of them that are in this game will be, but some may not be and instead may be scum safe claims.

[armlx]

Also, Armlx I'd say that the N1 deaths and the lynch have given us a pretty good idea that this game is running strictly on the same good/evil tracks as the game.

I don't disagree, I was merely stating from experience why not everyone who claims a main is auto-cleared.

Actually, given that, the lack of a counter claim isn't 100% confirming. I still don't think ABR has done anything that indicates he is scum though.

[armlx]

Also, Armlx I'd say that the N1 deaths and the lynch have given us a pretty good idea that this game is running strictly on the same good/evil tracks as the game.

I don't disagree, I was merely stating from experience why not everyone who claims a main is auto-cleared.

Actually, given that, the lack of a counter claim isn't 100% confirming. I still don't think ABR has done anything that indicates he is scum though.

[armlx]

So, issues at hand from yesterday:

CD's mentioning a Jester in context of Xtoxm not being scum.

People who swapped off Xtoxm:
Wolf (I'm buying it from him, similar to the whole ZS scenario in Xyl's Small town IIRC)
GW (Unvote separate from vote, flip flops post hammer)
ilord (confirmed scum)
FL (confirmed town now)
IAUN (believed Xtoxm was telling the truth + being an idiot, responds to counter claim in a way that implies he was telling the truth about the motives of his first vote, unvote + revote on xtoxm in same post later)
Zakeri (said he didn't believe Xtoxm yet swapped vote anyways, flip flops when called out on it)
Liam (says he doesn't believe ABR = Cid day cop)
Empking (wants to test cop claim, post ABR claim, hammers from nowhere, though I expect this from him)
Cavebear (redic logic + flip = not sure either way, null IMO)

Other notables:
MBL theorizing both scum seems pro-town.
MBP fake voting I definitely do not like.

So, people I think are scummy from that plus other stuff

Zakeri (so much flip flop, even today on ABR)

Zac (moderate, explained already)

GW (mild, based on flop post hammer)
CD (Jester thing makes a lot more sense if you know neither is scum with you)

As per above

Unvote, Vote Zakeri

[armlx]

Zakeri did get off the ABR wagon today, a few of us did, but is the flip flop enough for a vote?

In combo with his actions regarding xtoxm vs me yesterday, yes.

[armlx]

Cavebear, logic fail on the fact ABR was an easy lynch given the fact he lied D1.

[armlx]

Yos2, apparently it relates to people wanting to lynch ABR, but not wanting to b/c he claimed a main character.

Basically, its dumb to auto-clear him based on being a main character, but its also dumb to be lynching him for what amounts to a null tell for him.

[armlx]

Which would, essentially, make everything that transpired pointless?

No. There's still 2 wagons of data to analyze from yesterday, plus the push on ABR today.

[armlx]

Define eager.

Liam also wanted to lynch Zac over xtoxm/myself. I actually completely missed that cop that claimed first post in my reread of the scenario. Probably bumps him up to on par with Zac, maybe even Zakeri.

[armlx]

Didn't I say everyone vote within a week?

Yeah, do that NOW.

[armlx]

I mean, has he done anything this game that's seemed like a pro-town action?

In his own magical fantasy land, he has.

Also known by the word meta.

[armlx]

Didn't think it would happen unless I forced the hand of fate, considering the number of people who were hesitant to vote for the claimed daycop.

I'm surprised more people don't get how ABR would think this.....

[armlx]

Specifically at post 603 where it seems to me that he's pushing for the ABR lynch (and if I'm wrong, please tell me.)

I'm not pro-ABR lynch, though I can see how you would think that a mass voting spree would lead to that. I want people to take a stance though, as there are so few here doing so.

[armlx]

Vote:ABR

Because it's the right thing to do.

In a vacuum, yes. In ABR land, no.

[armlx]

1) LAL
2) Abrasive
3) Somehow managed to make the case that his meta actually is reason to not think he is scum.

LAL, while usually right, is not infallable. See point 3: Its not just him saying that his meta is as such. While the situations townies should lie are very limited, there are certainly scenarios where neither side is more likely to lie.

Kloud: Anti-town != scummy.

this is detracting from actual scum hunting, and sealed the deal on a mislynch

1) Its only detracting because you are making it such a big deal. Circular logic.
2) Xtoxm sealed his own mislynch by lying in the first place and going back on his claim.

This vote is not necessarily based on me finding ABR to be scum.

Strong FOS Kloud

.

[armlx]

1. I believe in LAL as a way of life.

Why?

He's gonna use his meta for evil one day or another, so why not assume today was the day.

Because there was no advantage to what he did there as scum over just letting the wagons progress naturally, especially given how obvious it was xtoxm was lying.

1) No, it detracts for the reasons I stated both before this extracted phrase and after. Lying as ABR did serves to:

a) Cast suspicion on said player regardless of alignment. If ABR truly is town, he has only made himself a larger target, thus allowing scum to slip under the radar for the time being.

b) Diminish the credibility of his word in this game; meaning that even if he were telling the truth players (such as myself) would find it hard to trust him--a factor that, as I said, scum will try to exploit.

He's only a larger target because you refuse to account for his meta (aka you pointing out the lying as an issue in the first place), and his credibility was shot in the first place by said meta.

If I remember correctly, the votes were split between you and xtoxm for quite some time. Yes, he lied about being vanilla, which did make him suspicious, but, correct me if I am wrong, it wasn't until ABR counter-claimed his day cop claim that the momentum accelerated once more and xtoxm was lynched. This is what I was referring to with "sealed the deal" of the mislynch; others were making cases against xtoxm and votes were flying back-and-forth, so it wasn't xtoxm's backtracking that sealed his fate. No, it wasn't until ABR came forth with the "counter-claim" that votes began to pile on. This is what I consider sealing someone's fate--for the counter-claim condemned xtoxm as the lynchee for Day 1 imo. Yes, he may have been lynched without the counter-claim, but he might not have as well, so I do not agree with you when you say xtoxm sealed his own mislynch.

Look at it this way. Xtoxm lying was going to be brought out at some point if I was lynched, regardless of my alignment. Hell, I would have to specifically be Shinra for him not to get called out, which is an even longer shot then just scum. At said point, he was going to die.

Did you even bother to look at the rest of this paragraph, or are you just content with cherry-picking certain segments in order to build cases that appear to be more solid than they actually are?

I expressed that I was voting based on utility alone, for I feel the need to rid the game of unhelpful and detrimental players will be the greatest benefit for the town at the moment. Yes, I do indeed believe, as I said, that ABR could in fact be scum, but there is always going to be the possibility of him being town too.

That's not cherry picking. That's a very relevant statement. Lynching for utility is not what we want to do, lynching for scum is. Lynching for utility is an excuse to push mislynches.

[armlx]

Because if everyone lynched liars, then only scum would lie.

Definitely not true. ABR's original stunt proved this.

[armlx]

Actually, the always lynch liars thing was pretty true about 3 years ago.

[armlx]

I don't see how the reasons for a lie is of relevance.

..............

[armlx]

Lynching all liars sounds nice at first, but not when you recall that people, generally speaking, are incompetent morons.

This.

[armlx]

See above.

[armlx]

So then does this mean you actually are a Daycop, and are just using your meta to trick people into thinking you're not while avoiding getting lynched for it?

This sounds like a bad question for ABR to answer either way.

[armlx]

I realize, and had I thought the odds of catching him in a slip like that were remotely possible, I wouldn't have said anything. However, as is, the possibilities all come out to where he either reveals he isn't actually a day cop to remaining scum, nothing changes, or he goes back on his claim and is lynched (not actually happening if he is scum). Notice the no positive outcomes?

[armlx]

Unvote

Every time I look at Zakeri's posts, the progressive logic in his decisions becomes more and more visible. While the vote based evidence points that way, in context of his posts it is excusable.

Looking back at my suspects, Zac's behavior is bordering on simple newbishness.

Liam still deserves a strong push. I like how his pushing of a Zac lynch is an essentially minimal info D1 lynch (newbie lynches tend to be hopped on more readily by town, easy targets) and as scum sets up the second mislynch by going to night and killing the investigation target who they know isn't scum with them.

Vote Liam

Of the ABR policy pushers, Kloud is actually trying to back his statements. TM is actually scummier in retrospect, as he is trying to press his opinion by circular logic (the if we lynch all liars only scum will lie, as well as basically defending his position by using that policy).

[armlx]

Just a question:

Did anyone here honestly believe xtoxm's second claim yesterday? I'm talking about being over 50% sure he was telling the truth, voting me to "test the cop" doesn't count.

[armlx]

That's pretty much what I'm thinking, I don't actually think anyone here believed xtoxm was more likely telling the truth then lying.

[armlx]

I think the problem with this game is that when an attention-whore like Albert fakeclaims and gets a townie killed, it utterly demoralizes the town. We can't possibly read a thing from the fake-guilty, because not a single player in the game had any reason to believe Xtoxm was not scum. Scum would simply assume he was in another scumgroup.

So we learned next to nothing from yesterday. Good job Albert, hope you got the attention you were looking for. We're basically stuck with a second Day One. Yay.

I'm interested.

1) Why is the data unusable from the fluctuations between wagons and other actions regarding them?

2) Why is ABR the one who caused this "second D1"?

[armlx]

There were competing wagons for a while before that.

[armlx]

2) I voted for ABR just to see if the wagon would gain momentum.

Don't buy this.

The massive speculation is slightly scummy too, but not really that damning.

I agree with MBL though.

[armlx]

What don't you buy?

That your ABR vote was just testing the waters. You fought pretty hard for it.

[armlx]

See, I don't see you countering the point, only accusing him of hypocrisy.

[armlx]

Hmm, I definitely missed that. My bad on the misrep there.

[armlx]

Albert already reduced our chances by 17% yesterday

No. He called out a liar who did that.

[armlx]

MBL, your actions are portraying ABR as solely responsible for the mislynch, which makes his actions look much more anti-town and thus more likely to result in a policy lynch on him.

I never said he was right to "counter-claim", but I'm merely pointing out a fair amount of blame for yesterday falls on xtoxm, and ABR's actions did assist in minimizing the damage done by the first false claim.

[armlx]

When was the last time all those people even posted? (Bar the one who posted this page)

[armlx]

IAUN has a point. I think I missed that one, but pointed out some other stuff earlier.

[armlx]

CD, the issue is Tony is currently voting ABR after saying that....

[armlx]

Nat- At least skim pages 15-25ish.

[armlx]

He is Nat, its expected. Voting him won't change it.

[armlx]

I do this a lot. I am a big defender of people who do anti-town things that aren't scummy.

See PYP3 (or any other game I've been in with DGB/Kscope/similar), Pikmin with respect to GS, etc.

[armlx]

Can the Tony Montana voters please explain how a scumbag could possibly know for certain right now that another player is a townie?

They could assume they were as they aren't scum with them.

[armlx]

God, I was mildly suspect of the slight shift away from Liam, but Tony's last post is pretty unreasonable.

I give him one post to explain fully before I vote.

[armlx]

That and his ABR push today on 0 logic.

[armlx]

I honestly could go for CML or TM at this point. TM's last post was a fair explanation of the "slip", but his other behavior was still disconcerting, and CML last post is just more of the same stuff I said was scummy earlier.

[armlx]

Which makes me FoS: armlx

What's the connection?

[armlx]

I don't really understand why that's a scummy move, especially since Zac put xtoxom on L-1 with NO REASON!

Apparently, you didn't read D1. There was ample reason to put xtoxm at L-1.

And, under normal circumstances, one of xtoxm or myself would HAVE to be scum. Why lynch elsewhere when you have a 50% chance of lynching scum and 50% chance of 1 mislynch, 1 scum lynch right there.

[armlx]

Especially since xtoxm turned town.

I think you are mistaking the scenario. I'm pretty sure even scum expected xtoxm to flip scum there.

Pro-town players aren't supposed to lie. Obscuring of information only helps the most informed group (the mafia), and masks the people who have to lie anyways (also the mafia).

[armlx]

So in your words ABR is not pro-town and could be masking his role as a mafia since he has to lie?

Again, I've explained how ABR is a case of extenuating circumstances. Like how pro-town players are supposed to use logic and be active, but you don't lynch DGB/Kscope/K7/MafiaSSK D1 every game.

[armlx]

CarnCarn, what flavor are you talking about? The whole cells thing or w/e that was based off ABR's false claim?

[armlx]

No, I am the real Cid. I do want to win, you know.

If I had to fake-claim as scum and out a power role I'd claim Cloud daycop of Vincent vig.

No Yosarian, I would have admitted I lied on day 2, claiming the ABR Gambit.

[armlx]

So that is 531. What did he mean by the last line of 516 ("Counter claimed? I haven't even claimed yet."), when he had clearly claimed Cid, in the same post no less?

I'll let him answer this, but I'm pretty sure what the implication was.

[armlx]

I don't know about everyone else, but I don't think it's a good idea to clear someone of doing something wrong simply because they do it all the time.

Except calling them out on it every time with a lynch results in more lost games. Better to just say "You are a fucking idiot" and leave it at that.

[armlx]

At the end of the day though, the real Cid is likely well aware that he has an obviously Town Aligned character and probably has a role too important to risk on the back of a claim from someone who could well be fishing for his scum-mates.

+1

Again, haven't we already discussed how role important in video game != role importance in mafia game in a well designed theme?

[armlx]

Yes, but I think perhaps the wrong conclusion was reached. I agree with cd that the lynch and NKs showed that role important in game does = role importance in mafia (or alignment, at the very least).

You are drawing a conclusion from a sample size of 1 relevant dead person.

[armlx]

So, how is this not enough evidence to say that role names are an indication of alignment?

I'm not talking about alignment. I'm talking about role POWER. That's the only reason a potential real Cid wouldn't counter claim.

[armlx]

This all sounds like MBL pre-emptively justifying an ABR mislynch.

[armlx]

And MBL you have it backways. Cry wolf syndrome has already kicked in metawise. The default assumption is to lynch a liar, but ABR has done it so often as town we just ignore it.

[armlx]

This all sounds like you blustering, because I couldn't possibly know whether ABR's a mislynch or not.

This is the old "But I'm town, so you are wrong when you say I'm scum" in disguise.

See, I look at your post and see reasons why ABR is a good lynch even if town. That's not what we want. And kloud already noted your flip flop on policy lynches.

Where did ABR retract his Cid claim?

[armlx]

1. Really? The games I've read through (admittedly not many), when there are safeclaims they are usually just names without flavor.

Last game by the co-mod had name + roles.

Also, what MBL's last post said.

[armlx]

how did you view and treat his claim differently than ABR's? Don't you have metas that say both of them are liars regardless of alignment?

I had a meta on ABR that he lied regardless of alignment.. I had a meta that xtoxm had no history (to my knowledge) of lying as town and that he had been caught for lying about something small as scum in PYP3, and as such his claim shouldn't be viewed any different then normal.

[armlx]

I want full opinions form the 3 non-voters, as well as reason for not voting.

[armlx]

I'd also like to have a little bit of a time window available for re-evaluation in case one of the prospective lynchees decides to claim a power role.

This.

[armlx]

God, there's so much of people voting ABR for reasons other then thinking he is scum its unreal.

[armlx]

I like how everyone is forgetting that the base assumption of xtoxm should have been he was scum based on the lying about an investigation. Not that he was town.

[armlx]

You can't advocate one rule for xtoxm and another for ABR. ABR done the same thing.

I can. ABR has a history of this as town (and presumably scum by base theory). Xtoxm did not have a history of this as town.

How many times does this have to be explained?

And Grimmy, the point of a lynch is to kill people who actually did something indicative of them being scum. Given ABR's meta, is what he did indicative of him being scum?

This game needs more Jebus and Cavebear posting and making up their minds. I would normally say more claims, but this is the only scenario where claim at L-2 is not expected.

[armlx]

Well, I don't see the sense in encouraging blatantly anti-town play.

I also don't see the sense in lynching someone for play that is clearly not scummy.

Don't argue about how lying is scummy in the abstract here BTW. This isn't the abstract.

[armlx]

When someone has a history of doing scummy things as town, how can you ever be sure that they won't abuse this reputation if they are actually scum? It would be too tempting to use that reputation to absolutely crush unsuspecting townies. Simple game theory would suggest that you can't trust that type of play in the long run, nor should the liars expect it to work in the long run.

Sure, you can't trust it as a town tell. You can't trust it as a scum tell either.

For example, does he always shift role claims (like am I Cid or am I not?), does he always try to guide night protection, and is he always so evasive about his role after screwing the town with a mislynch?

I never really saw a shift in his claim beyond the obv not a cop issue.

where did he guide doc protection?

Why are you so adamant about ignoring the fact xtoxm in the vacuum of his meta was most likely scum if he was lying when referring to ABR "causing" a mislynch?

[armlx]

Fair nuff on the doc point. I forgot about that.

Why are you so adamant about holding to ABR's meta if we just saw an example of meta failing in D1?

Because it wasn't a meta case with xtoxm. It was simply a scum tell he didn't have meta contradicting. 90+% of the time, people lying about their role are scum in the abstract. With ABR, its definitely not 90% of the time he is lying he is scum.

You don't think anything of the "I may or may not be Cid now" and "I haven't even claimed yet", after clearly claiming Cid in the same post?

I have no memeory of him saying he was anything other then Cid.

[armlx]

armlx, when a player is as acutely aware of their own meta as ABR apparently is, can you actually use that meta in any useful way?

Yes, to show a null tell. You can't use it as a town tell obviously, but null definitely works.

Put another way, has Albert ever screwed the town over THIS MUCH by his lying as town?

Xtoxm's fault, not his.

And you auto-assume the doc protected him after xtoxm turned up not scum? Given his history?

And CC, 10-10 is where you don't want a claim, as having both claim is pointless as odds are both aren't in danger of a lynch. The goal is to wait to see who gets pushed to claim.

[armlx]

1) I feel that this goes back to the fact that ABR could have very well just listed the reasonings for finding xtoxm suspicious earlier in Day 2 as opposed to fake-claiming Day cop. You deem this as xtoxm's fault simply because, had he not been lynched, it would have been you that would be dead. To me, I feel that we have been screwed over by ABR much more than by xtoxm's fake claim, as has continued his antics and proved to be unhelpful even after Day 1.

I would disagree with you. In the abstract you have to consider that between 66%-75% of the time in the abstract xtoxm's actions would have caused 2 mislynches, and of the remaining percentage would lead to his mislynch another half or so of the time or at the least draw doc protection. ABR's actions, however, had much more basis to assume xtoxm was scum and therefore had a higher "success" rate. Still was dumb, but xtoxm's actions had the lowest EV for the town of the two.

[armlx]

What Cephrir said. The claim does nothing to change my opinions.

[armlx]

Hmm.

Worth considering. Still think the sheer amount of policy and not actually thinking ABR is scummy behind his wagon is worse.

[armlx]

Ok, then show me what he has done other then the whole lying thing (a null tell) that indicates him being scum over CML.

[armlx]

@CarnCarn:

unvote

for now. I'm not really sure anymore. I'm still a little concerned at the possibility of lynching a pro-town power role, even if it isn't the most useful of claimed abilities (which also makes me think he isn't scum).

Huh? Who is a power role? CML certainly isnt.

[armlx]

Idea I should have seen this earlier. CML tried to derail the lynch of someone who ended up town. What an obviously scummy thing to do! (/sarcasm)

UH......

In context of the scenario, without the info xtoxm was being an idiot, one of me and him HAD to be scum.

Watcher is also what Barret was

This is legit though. Counter claimed by a dead person = lols.

I'm willing to hammer based on that. Anything to say before I do that?

And CC, are you SURE you used the vig ability (aka mod confirmation)? Most times I've seen that role (its actually called a MUP) the person using it doesn't get confirmation of their ability. I mean, obviously they know that they used vig if the person dies or investigate if they get a result, but otherwise they have no clue.

[armlx]

Anyone else got something to say?

[armlx]

Yeah, the no result tracker is fairly standard, and tracker is even a fairly common scum power role too.

[armlx]

Woweee.

Tomorrow needs more dead TM. By far.

Vote ABR

now that he's back to -2.

[armlx]

No, there is a need in case something random happens.

I want to be sure we actually have a lynch.

[armlx]

And as for TM's play, I've already said that's the best lynch of today. If enough people will switch to him, I think he should be lynched.

Its too late to do this.

[armlx]

I honestly wouldn't have voted ABR until the whole watcher -> tracker thing happened. But that was pretty bad.

[armlx]

The flavor is logical, but the whole watcher -> tracker shenanigans should trump all that.

[armlx]

Simple: CarnCarn is lying.

If he is town, that brings the total of town players to have lied to 3.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Lynch plz.

[armlx]

Hmm.

Here's the issue. The more I think about it, the more the only thing I feel makes ABR look guilty is the tracker/watcher flip. Either one of those should be a provable, where as CML..... so many issues.

I'll give him one night to prove that his role is that. And it should be obvious who his target is.

Unvote, Vote CML

[armlx]

Town deserves to lose any game where 2 people fake claim cop D1.