FFVII Mafia: Over

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Hey everyone! Looks like I have a mighty task of reading over 66 pages of posts. I'll try my best to catch up within 72 hours.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Just in case I need to do this as well...

OOGEY BOOGEY!

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I'm a little ahead of schedule as I just finished reading the first 1000 posts, so I expect to be done by tomorrow.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I'm now fully caught up.

First of all, I oppose the mass claim, many others have already uttered reasons. Now to the tasty part of my post:

Vote count analysis of major wagons of players who are confirmed town players:

Vote Count Number Five: Ninja votecount

Xtoxm

- 11 (Cludsy, armlx, Albert B. Rampage,

christiano drago

,

westbrook_owns_u/CarnCarn, iamausername, Zakeri

, TonyMontana, forbiddanlight,

DynamoXI

,

Yosarian2

)

armlx

- 8 (Xtoxm,

wolframnhart/Kscope

,

ilord

, ghostwriter, kloud1516,

CallMeLiam

,

Empking, Jebus

)

Vote Count Number Six: I hate Elias' way o counting votes votecount

Xtoxm

- 14 (Cludsy, armlx, Albert B. Rampage,

christiano drago

,

westbrook_owns_u/CarnCarn, iamausername, Zakeri

, TonyMontana, forbiddanlight,

Yosarian2, SpamWise/Cephrir, Zac/Natirasha

, Cavebear with a toothache/MM,

Empking

)

armlx

- 5 (Xtoxm,

wolframnhart/Kscope

,

ilord

, kloud1516,

CallMeLiam

)

Vote Count Number Thirteen: The "PWN him with your Omnislash" Votecount

TonyMontana

- 6 (

iamausername, Cephrir, christiano drago

, kloud1516,

Jebus

, Cavebear with a toothache)

Vote Count Number Seventeen: The "cosplay" Votecount

Albert B. Rampage

- 10 (

DynamoXI

,

Grimmy

,

MBPikamon

, TonyMontana,

MrBuddyLee, Christiano Drago, Yosarian2

,

CarnCarn

,

CallMeLiam

, kloud1516)

Vote Count Number Twenty One: The "Cloud is Emo" Votecount

TonyMontana

- 5 (

Jebus, iamausername, CarnCarn, Cephrir, Yosarian2

)

Bolded names are currently alive players excluding cavebear/me. Green names are confirmed town wagons. Red names are confirmed scum.

Assumptions:
1. Being on one town wagon makes a player slightly more likely to be scum
2. Frequently being on multiple town wagons makes a player much more likely to be scum

Frequency out of the 5 possible above and whether player is on a town wagon during all three days:
Yosarian2 - 4, YES
Empking - 2, NO
KaleiÃ

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

[quote="KaleiÃ

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

1. Multiple scum groups, possibly large, make it no less likely for scum to be on scum wagons.
2. D1 saw a player (xtoxm) perform some very scummy actions. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.
3. D2 was a realization that ABR lied horribly about his own role in order to "push the xtoxm lynch" which many found to be scummy. Also, seemed like there was a good possibility of him being SK. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.

And you're coming up with these assumptions based on what?

People who agressivly bandwagon, who use their votes agressivly, are much more likely to be town. People who either don't vote, or who avoid major bandwagons, are more likely to be scum. So if you pick the "major bandwagon" of the day, town or scum, most of the people on it will be town, and town are probably more likely to join it then scum are.

It's especally dumb in this case; since there is a good reason Xtoxm was wagoned day 1 and Albert was wagoned day 2; they both blatenlty lied about their roles.

Premise 1: It is in scums' (Shinra, Turk, SKs) best interests to not lynch people in their own faction.
Premise 2: It is in the scums' (Shinra, Turk, SKs) best interests to lynch people in factions other their own.
Premise 3: The only faction that opposes all scums (Shinra, Turk, SKs) is town.
Conclusion 1: All scums (Shinra, Turk, SKs) have interests in lynching town.
Conclusion 2: The wagons/lynches of town is more likely to have all types of scum on it.
Conclusion 3: It is more likely that more scum players are on town wagons/lynches.
Conclusion 4: Each player on a town wagon/lynch is slightly more likely to be scum. (my original assumption #1)
Conclusion 5: Multiple instances of a player on a town wagon = (slightly more likely) multiplied = much more likely to be scum. (my original assumption #2)

So now in response to CarnCarn:
1. I'm focusing on town wagons.
2. Scum also take advantage of others' scummy actions. The actions of players being wagoned is independent of conclusions I listed above.
3. See #2.

In response to Yosarian2:

2nd paragraph: How do you know all wagoners are aggresive instead of, for instance, scum complacent with going along with a lynch? And if you say "People who either don't vote, or who avoid major bandwagons, are more likely to be scum", then how do you explain 3/4 confirmed scum being on major town wagons during both Days 1 and 2?

3rd paragraph: See my response #2 to CarnCarn.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Wow...I wish I had 3 votes right now. I never realized I could have one post that ends up nailing 3 scum:

IAAUN's claims are 100% guaranteed, completely false, because

I actually have that role

.

I am the real Vincent Valentine, a person who may not have had the nicest personality and history. Since I was formerly a Turk, I am essentially a Turk cop who can discover whether a target is Turk each night.

Cavebear/My night choices:
N1 - Wolf/Kscope, not Turk
N2 - Zac/Natirasha, not Turk
N3 - Yosarian2, TURK

1. So now you can see why I went after Yosarian2 immediately.

Yosarian2 = confirmed Turk scum #1

2. IAAUN is extremely likely (99%) to be Yos's Turk scumbuddy who saw me as a potential threat in nailing both Yos and himself, so IAAUN is taking a gambit to bring me down quickly before I do further damage on the Turk scumgroup. But his gambit BACKFIRED in a huge way since he claimed my exact role.

IAAUN = 99%-certain Turk scum #2

3. It is very interesting that both IAAUN's fakeclaim and my actual investigations have Natirasha as NOT TURK. It makes sense why IAAUN was fakeclaiming the other two investigations: Cludsy is dead and he wants me dead. But what motives could IAAUN have behind faking an investigation on a currently alive player? To clear his scumbuddy (85% sure)! And since I have a real result of Natirasha as not Turk, I'm pretty sure Natirasha is the Turk Godfather.

Then I took a look at possible connections between Yos and Natirasha, and found two cases of distancing:
Yos attacked Natirasha for a couple of posts early Day 2, then completely ignored Nat afterwards (Yos's posts 26 and 27)
Yos subtlely fake-voted Natirasha earlier today (Yos's Post 91)

Natirasha = 85%-certain Turk Godfather scum #3

So what are the implications of this?

1. The scumgroups, unfortunately, are probably 4 each instead of 3, with Godfathers.
2. Either Yos or IAAUN needs to be lynched today, and the other two needs to be vigged and/or killed by SK and/or killed by the Shinra tonight.

My vote on Yosarian2 stands and can be readily switched to IAAUN. Also

HUGE FOS: Natirasha

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

One more thing I forgot to mention:

Cavebear breadcrumbed his role(now my role) in Post 560:

I fully expect all the playable characters of the game to be town, even if their abilities might evidently not be exactly what you'd expect. (Barret was a watcher, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Red XIII as a roleblocker or

Vincent as a cop

or some equally random distribution.)

This may have been where IAAUN got his idea for fakeclaiming.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

How approapriate that all 3 of the remaining Turks are voting me right now.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

2. IAAUN is extremely likely (99%) to be Yos's Turk scumbuddy who saw me as a potential threat in nailing both Yos and himself, so IAAUN is taking a gambit to bring me down quickly before I do further damage on the Turk scumgroup.

Yes, your incredibly insightful analysis of copying and pasting some vote counts was so damning that I saw into the future and knew that I had to try to get you lynched before you even replaced into the game.

N3 - Yosarian2, TURK

Cavebear's last post on site is dated Monday, November 17th.

Night 3 began on Sunday, November 23rd.

So apparently, almost an entire week after apparently dissapearing for good, Cavebear logged on just long enough to send in an investigation. Interesting.

Your scumgroup obviously planned this out during the night in which you would go after relatively-inactive Cavebear today and have a fakeclaim ready to condemn Cavebear further in case things do not go as planned (and indeed, things did not go as planned).

And there are many ways in which Cavebear could have gotten a choice in. Maybe he planned to lay low anyways so as to not draw nightkills. Maybe he submitted a choice early since he's anticipating that he will disappear. Maybe the mod randomized a choice. But no matter which these scenarios is actually the case, you are grasping at straws for trying to discredit my claim. Empking should note this as well.

---

More things to consider about our Yos-IAAUN-Nat Turk scumgroup:

Natirasha was also supporting a mass claim earlier today, "If we do a massclaim, it'll be good." That makes all 3 in the group support the mass claim, which makes perfect sense for them since they are the larger scumgroup and has the most to gain by hearing others' claims.

What did each person say about whether the lynch today should be non-Turk or Turk?

Ergo, we need to eliminate the small scum factions, THEN worry about Turks.

Makes a lot of sense from a pro-Turk perspective.

the Turks are the biggest scumgroup around, so that's where we should concentrate our focus today.

So, yeah, I guess if your assumption that the scumgroups started with three members is correct, it is in our interest to lynch Seph or the last Shinra today.

IAAUN does the classic initial distancing from his scumgroup, then switches to the more favorable postion when he could pounce on MBL's false assumption.

Why is eliminating nightkills the way to go here, instead of trying to weaken the strongest scumgroup? Especally if there are 2 shinara left and 3 turks left, which seems most likely; lynching a Shinra today and tommorow would probably lead to a Turk win unless there's a lucky crosskill, wouldn't it?

Yos does the heaviest distancing from his scumgroup, as only the "Most Cunning Manipulator" can.

This from IAAUN should be revisited:

If we the two scum teams started with four members each

Clearly looks like a slip now, IAAUN accidentally admits both his role in a scumgroup and the scumgroup size.

---

Anyone up for a massclaim now that our Turk cops are claimed?

I think now would be a much better time to claim. Since the 3 Turks have been nailed, we now essentially would have 10 players mass claiming with 7 town, 2 Shinra, and 1 SK. The 70-30 ratio for the town is much better than the one earlier today that was closer to 50-50.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

How is showing that you must be lying, grasping at straws?

Because he's trying to use very weak evidence that can be easily discredited with scenarios I mentioned above.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Maybe he planned to lay low anyways so as to not draw nightkills.

Does this have anything to do with the flaw in your claim.

Maybe he submitted a choice early since he's anticipating that he will disappear.

So hje knew he'd leave but didn't ask for a replacement?

Maybe the mod randomized a choice.

I haven't modded a game but from what I've read, this seems like a no-no.

Your first point: Yes because Cavebear may have intentionally lurked towards end of Day 3 as a strategy, then submitted night choice, then disappeared.

Your second point: I don't know the specifics behind why Cavebear would disappear and how we would act when he realized we would disappear. Sometimes when people disappear they won't bother coming back to the site to notify mods to replace them.

Your third point: Don't try to outguess the mod.

The bottom line is I replaced into the game, got my role PM, and it said the investigations I have are Kscope, Nat, and Yos. I had no control over the submission of these choices, so I won't know the exact circumstances behind them.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I just got a very important message from the mod, I'll need clarification before I post further.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

The mod notified me of an error in my role PM. My Night 3 investigation on Yos should be NOT TURK instead of TURK. That really changes things:

UNVOTE: Yosarian2

, Yos is not the lynch for today, but obviously it is still a possibility that he's Shinra/SK/TurkGF.

VOTE: IAAUN

, his claim is still guaranteed false, but now he could be either Turk or Shinra. I originally thought he had 99% chance to be Turk because of the connections to Yos, but the change with Yos opens the possibility for IAAUN to be in either scumgroup.

Reduced FOS: Natirasha

, since my original suspicions on him closely connected to my conclusions on Yos and IAAUN. This also means the probability of Nat as a GF is reduced and the scumgroups could still be 3 each.

The other implication I can see right now from this is that if Yos is Shinra or TurkGF, then his scumbuddies (if there are any) would have known that I was wrong about the Yos=Turk investigation. The people who reacted strongly against me, besides Yos and IAAUN, are Empking and Cephrir. This is just something to keep in mind only if Yos turns up Shinra or TurkGF.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

The mod notified me of an error in my role PM. My Night 3 investigation on Yos should be NOT TURK instead of TURK. That really changes things:

UNVOTE: Yosarian2

, Yos is not the lynch for today, but obviously it is still a possibility that he's Shinra/SK/TurkGF.

VOTE: IAAUN

, his claim is still guaranteed false, but now he could be either Turk or Shinra. I originally thought he had 99% chance to be Turk because of the connections to Yos, but the change with Yos opens the possibility for IAAUN to be in either scumgroup.

Reduced FOS: Natirasha

, since my original suspicions on him closely connected to my conclusions on Yos and IAAUN. This also means the probability of Nat as a GF is reduced and the scumgroups could still be 3 each.

The other implication I can see right now from this is that if Yos is Shinra or TurkGF, then his scumbuddies (if there are any) would have known that I was wrong about the Yos=Turk investigation. The people who reacted strongly against me, besides Yos and IAAUN, are Empking and Cephrir. This is just something to keep in mind only if Yos turns up Shinra or TurkGF.

Do I have to point out the fact that the mod has not been on today?

Do you want to me give you a screenshot for proof?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Plus, there's no way you can prove it since Elias could be a hidden user.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@ Empking: It was meant as a rhetorical question. Obviously I can't actually post a screenshot since it's essentially direct quoting from mod, which is against the rules.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Wow, Zakeri was the L-1 vote and Jebus for the hammer vote on me. Thanks to you 2 for not paying attention, the real vincent is now lynched.