Newbie 680: In this town of Cookieland... Over!
Forum rules
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
So. Yeah. *checks watch* Hmm hmm hmm.
No posts today except from the old man. Hum de hum.
...
...
Sure is nice outside.
...
*sigh*
...
...
you're all scum
...
...
Sure hope winter isn't too rough this year.
...
*looks around*
...
So, what's up guys?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I am getting bad vibes from two people right now. And a third by association.
First, popsofctown. Looking at My Milked Eek's attempt at a case in post #60, most of what's in there is fairly inane as far as actually being a scumtell. The one point that was made that I agree with, however, was the observation on the last statement:
This is a wishy-washy statement, and makes you look like you are trying to defend your buddy YOUNG ERIC while not bringing too much attention to yourself. (On further reflection, this makes me suspect YOUNG ERIC as well by association).popsofctown wrote: I still think his original vote was a weee bit scummy, but i find his follow ups towny. I don't think you can vote him yet Barros.
Second, Barros.
So first, I scoff at "L-3 situation"... oh noes!Barros wrote: Or maybe I was wrong...
Maybe you (YOUNG ERIC) are dropping votes on pops because you realized you were turning yourself in. You realized you were being too scummy by voting on pops so now you just unvote.
You put pops on a L-3 situation, then you realized you were being too scummy, now you unvote him and you didn't vote in anyone else cause you want to get rid of the atention.
ERIC, you're obviously scum..
Second, I scoff at your WIFOM-logic. Post #50: make a case. Post #51: make the opposite case. You aren't trying to come up with the best case against someone, you're throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and hoping someone picks up on your voodoo.
So. I suspect three people. There are only 2 mafia. And if I'm correct about one, the other I think is town. Quite the conundrum. I am going to refrain from voting at this point until I hear more, because I need to eliminate a suspect.
FoS: popsofctown (YOUNG ERIC by association as protected scumbuddy)
FoS: BarrosMen's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
So your argument on why I shouldn't vote for you is:
*wave hands*
PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN. ERIC IS THE TRUE SCUM.
*wave hands*
That's isn't a defense, that's a diversion.
Your "other" tell right now is your voting history and FoS diversion. Just because you are trying to convince everyone that "hey, Eric is MUCH Scummier that me, he has *2* tells, I only have 1!" doesn't make you any less guilty in my eyes.popsofctown wrote: There is no other tell it's based off of, so there's just the good old 2/9 that i'm actually mafia.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Your entire argument, everything you've said, everything that comes out of your mouth, is WIFOM. Making statements like
The answer is: Who cares! You could be, you know,popsofctown wrote: If i was fellow mafia would i be so concerned about that? Would i be expecting Eric to leave his vote there?pretending. That's kind of the point of the game.
You are consistently making arguments that go "Hey, if I was mafia, wouldn't I be doing exactly X, then Y, then Z? I'm not doing that, so obviously I'm town, right?". It's patently ridiculous.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Capricious wrote: Scum are scared, moreso than town, scared out of their tight cupcake pants.
Your self-imposed post restriction is amusing. Assuming it is self-imposed... <?>Capricious wrote: This whole wagon on pops smells heavily of cupcakes.
If everything is WIFOM, all cases are WIFOM, hence all cases are not good. QED. Mafia is Hard!Capricious wrote: WIFOM - NOT good case, everything is WIFOM reduced to purest forms
I don't have a case against pops based on post #81. That was an expression of my incredulity at his gameplay. My case right now is nothing more than "I don't really like what I'm seeing from pops". I do, however, appreciate the information I am getting from the vote switches and bandwagon hopping I'm seeing without much justification.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I was being facetious, Capricious. Stop being so specious.Capricious wrote: Moratorium, this is a newbie game, and there are no flavor considerations involved. Plus, does it seem reasonable that scum must say cupcakes in every post?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
wait.. I had to re-read this like a dozen times to make sure I understood..
Ok. Let me see if i'm following you here.YOUNG ERIC wrote: with that said my short post were. I said "he was extremely suspicious" I knew that would lead to people suspecting me. therefore I would add more suspision on me while voting for pops I was hoping to severe the ties that he bound us together. Some of what he has said does make him seem like a likely candidate for scum.
Your strategy, if I'm reading you correctly here, is that you wanted us to suspect you of being scum, and that because of your vote on pops, that we would therefore suspect pops of being town. That even though we would suspect you of being scum, hey, at least we don't think you and pops are associated.
That's.... just.... what....
The fact that you stress the importance of disassociating yourself with pops, EVEN MORE SO THAN CONVINCING US YOU ARE TOWN, convinces me that you have some kind of association with him. You are both Guilty McGuiltersons.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
So you think Eric is scum?popsofctown wrote: suspicious that maybe the scum are Moratorium + Eric or My Milked Eek +Eric
So you think Eric is... town?popsofctown wrote: trying to distance themselves and score a civilian kill by lynching EricMen's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
This scenario of yours looks more like trying to set up the next play after one of you is voted off, so that you aren't immediately targeted once the first lynch comes up scum.
ORpopsofctown wrote: If would be very hard to get the town to lynch me next, and I'm a civilian.
Everyone agrees that you're his scumbuddy.
More WIFOM.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
The Belgian wrote: If you were wrong, tans pis, but at least you have information.
It's looking like eventually everyone in this game is going to give themselves a self-imposed post restriction...Man from France's Armpit wrote: If I had a eurocent every time...
Man.. if I had a Loonie everytime Pops posted something WIFOM, I could buy a hockey team, and all the maple syrup I wanted. That's what I'm talking aboot.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
My opinion on all three of them is still pretty much the same as was detailed in post #64 when I originally called them out.
I'd like to add that although I'm currently voting for pops, if either pops or Eric get to L-1 at this point without a drastic change in arguments or debate, that I'll be happy to switch to either one and hammer. I'd have to see something pretty convincing from either one at this point to stop being suspicious of them.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I'm in the middle of reading your post right now, but I just wanted to write this down before I forgot it....popsofctown wrote:
The L-1 vote, right? I'm not quite sure what you're implying, but I think it's that he can't be your scumbuddy because of that. Well, tbh, that possibility is still there.pops wrote:
Eric didn't clearly indicate why he was voting. And I know Eric can't possibly be suspicious that he and I are scumbuddies. That leaves very little reason to vote for me.
...are you talking to yourself here? You quoted yourself, and then answered... yourself?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Why must I insist? Does this bother you?popsofctown wrote: @Moratorium
Eric and I have done very different things in this game. You don't insist one or the other deserves your vote more?
Yes, as stated in post #132.popsofctown wrote: Would you hammer whichever one of us, even if we had no deadline?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
If I've already stated that I'm willing to hammer you both, how does me identifying which is "scummier" going to change anything. Think of it this way, you're both already getting F's on the scum test right now. What does it matter if one of you is a F+ and the other is a F-?popsofctown wrote: @moratorium, yes this bothers me. If there's much difference between two people's levels of suspiciousness, you should fight for the one you think is more suspicious. Lynching the more suspicious one helps the town more, that's what you should care about.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I made it clear that I thought both pops and Eric were scum. Saying I "switched wagons" or was "wishy-washy" is incorrect, I made it very plain that I was on both wagons and ready to hammer either player if they reached L-1.
Characterizing my vote on Eric as a "jump-in", considering I expressed my first doubts about pops and Eric in post 64, four pages ago, is also a very weak argument.
Obviously, this theory with Eric hasn't panned out. But painting me as Johnny-come-lately when I've been on this theory from the beginning is unhelpful and confuses everyone.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
This is Post 164. You will want to remember post 164.
I took a shower, and made a decision. I'm going to take this entire game and turn it into a logical puzzle instead of a mash of psychology and failed motive guesses. I've been running the numbers in my head, and the various possibilities that could occur. The worst case scenario as I can see it now is that this post will give town a 33% chance of winning, but chances are good that those odds will be mitigated by other events.
Come, follow me down this road of mystery, will you?
I claim Sane Cop. Barros was investigated last night and flipped Guilty.
I decided to investigate Barros because I thought it was suspicious that as soon as I brought him up in post 64, he went super-quiet. My case against him was how he was contradicting himself in back to back posts, and I think it spooked him into not talking too much.
I am going with the following suppositions in this claim:
- I am a sane cop.
- There is a 50% chance of there being a doctor in this game (Scenario 1 or Scenario 3). A smart doctor will protect me tonight.
- If there is a doctor, there is a 100% chance of there also being a Mafia Roleblocker (Scenario 3), who, if he decides not to block me, will have a 25% chance (1 out of 4 other townies) of picking the doctor to roleblock.
The worst case scenario based on this claim is as follows:
- I am lynched. There is no doctor. I flip cop.
- A Townie is NK'd.
- Barros is lynched the next day as the obvious choice.
- A Townie is NK'd.
- This puts us in a situation where there is 1 mafia, and 2 town. Therefore, the chance that the correct mafia is lynched is 33% at that point, if we don't consider anything else (voting record, scummyness, etc).
Some events that I have considered to mitigate those odds:
- Town decides to follow my advice and lynches Barros. Immediately informed he is scum, 50% chance that Roleblocker has been eliminated. Town dies from NK (chance of doctor save), we go into Day 3 with 4 town and 1 scum. Good situation.
- I know right now that there's a 50% chance of there being a doctor. If that doctor protects me tonight, and survives the total 1 in 5 chance of being roleblocked'd, we get an additional night of investigation. Very good situation.
- Mafia might attempt to NK the doctor who self-protects at any point, wasting a nightkill.
- Town can mitigate the odds further simply by doing what town always does, attempt to determine who is scum based on what they post.
Now, I'm pretty sure that there will be some hem-hawing in the next page or two about this claim, and people will try to figure out whether to believe it, or just lynch me. Ultimately, since I picked the right person to investigate last night, me getting lynched offers absolute proof that Barros is guilty. So it's not all bad. If we are going that way, I'll have to hope that thedoctor is paying attentionand will protect me tonight.
However, I humbly ask that everyone pull up Barros' post history and make your own determination as to what's going on. I was suspicious that he went very quiet after I called him out, and my investigation was fruitful.
Good luck, all. The decision you make today will probably win or lose the game.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I'm not going to answer this question today, it gives scum too much information.Capricious wrote: I believe Moratorium fully, who do you think is the other scum?
This is a pointless sentence.popsforctown wrote: So worst case scenario for falsely believing Moratorium is the same as the worst case scenario for correctly believing Moratorium.
Neither here nor there, but it is Day 2.popsforctown wrote: it doesn't make whole lots of dollars and sense for scum to claim cop with a verdict day 1.
That sentence makes as much sense as "There is a 50% chance that pigs will land on my house today". Either pigs will or won't land on my house, but just because there are only 2 choices doesn't make the odds 50%. I would put the odds at a counterclaim much much higher than 50%.popsforctown wrote: There's always a 50% chance of counterclaim.
Complete bullshit.popsforctown wrote: Usually the counterclaimer wins.. as far as i know.
Look at Barros. If you don't think that Barros is the target for today, after an honest look at his post history, fall back and lynch me, town will still get all the information it needs. If you vote Barros and he flips town,popsforctown wrote: Moratorium's suggested that today's call is between Moratorium and Barros. I'm not sure it really is at all.I GO NEXT. Automatic.
Suggesting to ignore everything I've said and go elsewhere is either you attempting to get Barros off the hook in a bad-for-scum situation, or, if you are town, HORRIBLE PLAY. Please explain to me the scenario where my claim benefits scum if I am completely lying about it, because currently your scenario is "Maybe Moratorium thinks he sucks as a player". I do not. Delaying this choice to lynch either scum or scum's investigator and giving up the potential information gained lacks judgment.popsforctown wrote: I'm not feeling up to the math on that. Moratorium, are you in a mathy mood? I think if we leave Barros alive, and just suppose Moratorium is detective in the meantime, we greatly improve our chances of winning without making a decision yet. I could be totally wrong about that, maybe we do need to lynch one of the two today.
vote: Barros
Pops, and this is for serious now, if you are town in this game, you are going to need to learn when not to inject your confusing rhetoric when town is attempting to make a case. I do not feel that you are helping at all.
And if you're scum, well, Bravo.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Mod: Please prod Barros (no posts in 6 days), Pimhel (no posts for 6 days), and Chuck Norris (no posts in 4 days).
None of these players have posted since Day 2 started. I would like to hear their opinions on my claim.
Also, I have answers to the questions "Why did you pick Barros to investigate?" and "Who will you investigate next?", but I do not wish to give out those answers until I've heard from everyone.
Please do not be too quick to hammer today, whoever the lynch target is. It is to town's advantage that we discuss this a lot and get a better feel on the remaining players.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Awesome. Counterclaim is go. Let's analyze.
My original FoS was September 29th. I voted October 8th. I'm not sure what "he was talking" is referring to, but you can hardly characterize me as a bandwagon jumper.Barros wrote: Moratorium, firstly you lynched ERIC as fast as you could with the excuse that "he was talking".
This is legitimate, a smarter play would have been to wait for a replacement.Barros wrote: Why didn't you wait for replacements?
No. I posted this 7 minutes before you did:Barros wrote: Then, when day2 comes, you start saying your cop and i'm Scum. You really want to rush things out.
Moratorium wrote: Please do not be too quick to hammer today, whoever the lynch target is. It is to town's advantage that we discuss this a lot and get a better feel on the remaining players.
I know you are doing your best at this counterclaim, but you, I, and everyone else in this game is well aware that nothing we type hereBarros wrote: Let me tell you something (something you already know for sure), you're not a cop. How do I know that you might ask. I know it because I'm the sane cop. And toprooveit, the only thing I can say is that I investigated Popsprovesanything. You are doing your best to support your case with leading language, and it's cute. Wrong, but cute.
"Hey everybody, remember pops, remember how you all thought he was guilty! Well I figured him out, yessiree I did, I'm the hero!"Barros wrote: As you might remember he was really suspicious, everyone thought that pops was connected to Eric and both were scum.
Obvious attempt at getting me to waste my next investigation. I have another idea in mind there, unfortunately for you.Barros wrote: My investigation ended with this result: Pops is not scum!
...who IBarros wrote: Moratorium randomly chose someone...FoS'd on page 3...
Barros wrote: I dont beg the doc to protect me. if he doesn't or if you lynch me it's your fault town but at least you'll know who the really scum are.And there we have it. If you were really cop, you'd want the doctor to protect you.
"I have no defense against math."Barros wrote: so dont be amazed by a big comment full of grown up probabilites, it's all crap.
Really? If I were scum, wouldn't I accuse the person everyone is arguing with, i.e. Pops? Seems like that would be the easiest route, wouldn't it? Why put myself through all these hoops?Barros wrote: He is scum and he couldn't have chosen a better person to accuse.
[hr]
Ultimately, it comes down to this: I made this claim because I am aWILLING SACRIFICEto exchange one mafia for one townie, me. If I convince town to lynch you, big win for town. If I don't and get lynched instead, small win for town.
I'm afraid your counterclaim is very weak.
Happily, I can now answer the previous questions:
1) I investigated Barros because I had a choice from my two FoS's in post 64: Barros or Pops. Pops was talking like crazy, Barros wasn't saying a thing. I figured if I investigated Barros, I might also be able to learn about Pops just from his constant talking. But if I investigated Pops, I probably wouldn't learn anything about Barros since he was so quiet.I went with the option that maximized information.Simple, really.
2) The only way that I would reveal who I was to investigate next would be if we were lucky enough to lynch the Roleblocker (Hopefully Barros). Then I could be open about who to investigate (we could actually discuss it in thread and determine which investigation makes the most sense, almost like voting), and since we'd know there was a doctor alive, we could do this with impunity. Otherwise, if I say "i'll investigate STD tonight", scum then gets to make a decision on whether to block me. Why give them that option?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
There was no intent at a trap by specifying "Sane". If I had laid such a verbal trap, I would have said something in my analysis of Barros's counterclaim (like AHA GOT YOU). I specified "Sane" based on the role scenarios laid out in post #1, which I had been looking at to determine possible outcomes (like, for example, the knowledge that if there is a roleblocker, there must be a doctor).
Another point of interest and contrast between my claim and the counterclaim is that, without directly quoting my investigation result PM, I can state that the result I got on Barros was about hisguilt, not his role. Barros flipped guilty, not scum. In Barros' counterclaim, he specified that pops flipped "not scum", which is not what the cop role reveals.
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Cop
This, more than the "Sane Cop" verbal trap proposal from Capricious (that was never my original intent anyways), indicates to me a misunderstanding of the Cop role by Barros, and with no actual PM to go by, he took a guess at the syntax.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
In counterclaiming, Barros was in a position where he had to gain allies/votes. If you truly are basing your "that's the only reason i have" belief on the fact that he was correct, I hope you also realize that his only good plays were:popsforctown wrote: But, I'm inclined to believe him (Barros) because i know the investigation he gave is right.. but that's the only reason i have to believe him.
1) Saying that he investigatedmeand claim he got a guilty result. Confuse everyone.
2) Picking someone, claiming a confirmed innocent, and gaining an ally.
By picking someone else and claiming guilty, he gains nothing, that person is immediately suspicious, and everything unravels. So choosing you, the most talked about player, and saying you are innocent, is, I hope you realise, an obvious play.
I answered this in post 164. First, I disagree with you that "Barros looked pretty bad." No one was saying much of anything about Barros on Day 1, and nothing at all in the early part of Day 2. In fact, the first Day 2 posts were cases being started on me by you and Capricious regarding your perceived suspicions of me RE: Young Eric being hammered.popsforctown wrote: @Moratorium: I've been meaning to ask this but i forgot: Why did you claim instead of just applying pressure to Barros? Barros looked pretty bad. I'd given Barros an FoS, I'd have backed you up. Barros doesn't look like genius scum that could guard himself brilliantly. And you wouldn't have to reveal the cop to the scum that way. Why did you make the early claim?
So now put yourself in my position. Day 2 arrives. I have a beneficial investigation result. My investigation target has flown under the radar most of the game. The rest of town is suspicious of me due to the vote results. If the rest of town lynches me, we're in some serious trouble, we'll be LYLO on Day 3 (3 town 2 mafia), with no good information on anyone. I have to figure something out right now or we are lost. And not "I have to hope someone comes up with something"... I have to figure it out! I'm the one with the damn guilty verdict!
So...
I decided to go with trying to figure out the odds. And the odds said to play the sacrifice. I knew I would have to fight a counterclaim, but I also knew thatMoratorium in post 164 wrote: I'm going to take this entire game and turn it into a logical puzzle instead of a mash of psychology and failed motive guesses.even if I lost, there were possible mitigating factors(immediate reveal of scum if lynched, possible doctor NK save if not lynched), and a bottom line that wasn't a complete disaster (33% town win chance).
So again. Here we are. If you lynch Barros, town is way ahead. If you lynch me, town is slightly ahead. If you lynch someone else, you're taking a shot in the dark, and most likely you'll be LYLO Day 3. The risk in choosing between myself and Barros to lynch is EQUAL, because whoever you pick, if it was a mistake, the other guy goes next. So why not pick the one with the best case, and take a shot at town going way ahead? Who do you think has made the best case, me or Barros?
That, right there, is the paragraph I'm going to quote when this game is over.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I missed this request reading through the first time, but actually, I think this is a wise idea. We have two players who appear to be MIA, and I don't have much of a read on either one's motives so far (just 2 or 3 posts each). There's no need to risk an aborted end to Day 2.popsforctown wrote: Along this train of thought, I invite Capricious to unvote for safety, without retracting his desire to lynch Barros. "But Pops, L-2 isn't that close". If one of our replacements is very aggressive/intuitive, they could vote Barros to L-1, and then Barros could self-hammer to stop talk, things do look that grim for him.
UPDATE: after just reading Moratorium's post, i think he could agree to this.... well maybe not, that would be me and Moratorium agreeing on something Razz.
I'd like to hear some concrete opinions from both Pimhel and Chuck Norris on the Cop claim/counterclaim to ensure we can maximize our reads on everyone. Once everyone has made significant contributions to Day 2, I'll revote.
Unvote
HoS: BarrosMen's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Capricious wrote: Who was proposing that we lynch someone else?popsforctown wrote: Right now we have two cop claims. Earlier i suggested leaving Barros and Moratorium alive, perhaps, then dismissed it. But now in this special case, it could be a really good middle road.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I answered this in post 199. In fact, when I answered this in post 199, it was within an answer responding to a question of yours that states that I'd answered another question of yours again in post 164...popsforctown wrote: I just reread page seven and realized that Moratorium's large cop claim was after he got an FoS and a vote.
This is disconcerting, it makes his claim look more like a pre-emptive butt-saving claim.
I also didn't notice last time that his major claim was his second day 2 post, not his first.
Would you like to describe why you waited that little bit of time, Moratorium?
So first of all, if I'm going to put the effort to go back and read and re-read posts of yours, and pay attention to what YOU are saying (see: Unvote), I would appreciate it if you did the same.Moratorium wrote:
I answered this in post 164. First, I disagree with you that "Barros looked pretty bad." No one was saying much of anything about Barros on Day 1, and nothing at all in the early part of Day 2. In fact, the first Day 2 posts were cases being started on me by you and Capricious regarding your perceived suspicions of me RE: Young Eric being hammered.popsforctown wrote: @Moratorium: I've been meaning to ask this but i forgot: Why did you claim instead of just applying pressure to Barros? Barros looked pretty bad. I'd given Barros an FoS, I'd have backed you up. Barros doesn't look like genius scum that could guard himself brilliantly. And you wouldn't have to reveal the cop to the scum that way. Why did you make the early claim?
So now put yourself in my position. Day 2 arrives. I have a beneficial investigation result. My investigation target has flown under the radar most of the game. The rest of town is suspicious of me due to the vote results. If the rest of town lynches me, we're in some serious trouble, we'll be LYLO on Day 3 (3 town 2 mafia), with no good information on anyone. I have to figure something out right now or we are lost. And not "I have to hope someone comes up with something"... I have to figure it out! I'm the one with the damn guilty verdict!
Second, it was ABSOLUTELY, COMPLETELY a pre-emptive, butt-saving claim. That'sTHE ENTIRE POINT OF POST 164, to go "hey, guys, you are all fucking this up badly, I need to fix this right now or we're dead".
As far as "why i waited that little bit of time", I went back and looked, and it was 1 hour and 45 minutes from the first post to the second. I spent that time thinking over the situation, taking a nice shower in my lovely hotel all-marble shower that I've been enjoying these past two weeks (as i mentioned in the opening of post 164), and typing up the post. I'm not sure what else you are insinuating that I could accomplish in that amount of time that somehow makes me sinister?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
The purpose to unvoting was to prevent you from voting yourself and allowing a quicklynch with your scumbuddy. That way, we could spend time discussing things and not allow you to vote yourself off to prevent that discussion.
The problem is, there has been no useful communication whatsoever. No one is playing this game. So I'd rather the game proceed to something else that might interest people into actually participating.
Jersey's having to read the entire thread in one go before posting his opinion. I highly doubt after reading the entire thread, he'll then see my last vote and go "Well damn, I was seriously undecided, but after Moratorium busted out that impressive vote right there I was convinced!"
QFT wrote: Many thanks for your input, Barros, you may curl up and die now.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
/facepalm
First, I'll start with this.
So looking at your analysis, jersey:Moratorium wrote: So again. Here we are. If you lynch Barros, town is way ahead. If you lynch me, town is slightly ahead. If you lynch someone else, you're taking a shot in the dark, and most likely you'll be LYLO Day 3. The risk in choosing between myself and Barros to lynch is EQUAL, because whoever you pick, if it was a mistake, the other guy goes next. So why not pick the one with the best case, and take a shot at town going way ahead? Who do you think has made the best case, me or Barros?
That entire quote boils down to "I consider both claims of equal value, but Barros's (fake) potential confirmed innocent makes his claim better".jerseygoomba wrote: We lynch Moratorium and if he flips town, then going with Barros is a no-brainer. We immediately eliminate 50% of the scum and have another day to ferret out the other.
We lynch Barros based on Moratoriums claim and he flips town. So we whack Moratorium, with the same final result. The only thing here is if we lynch Moratorium and believe Barros, we take advantage of the first investigation and it puts us ahead of the game as we KNOW that pops is innocent.
- Nevermind that I give strong supporting arguments to my claim.
- Nevermind the self-sacrificial reasoning.
- Nevermind that Barros's claims look like they came off a Fruit Loops box.
- Nevermind that Barros's central theme is "Hey, let's just see what happens"
- Nevermind the empirical statistical evidence.
- Nevermind that Barros's fakeclaiming a confirmed innocent is the obvious counterplay when you just got called out by the cop as guilty.
So you feel that having a 50% chance at a doc isn't enough of an incentive for me to risk the sacrifice? Why not? Can you explain the math away instead of telling us about your feelings?jerseygoomba wrote: I feel that Moratoriums appeal to a doc (which we aren't even sure there is one) is simply a red herring being used to prop up his whole claim.
The only thing I can do to respond to this (because I actually think this is a clever game strategy) is to say, have a look at Barros's posting. Does that, to you, look like someone who is purposefully looking like a bumbling fool, or just a bumbling fool? Is it genuine, or contrived?jerseygoomba wrote: One last scenario which gives me the heebie-jeebies is that Moratorium AND Barros are both cupcakes. Barros agrees to take one for the team and puts up a halfhearted counterclaim and defense. Now, we whack Barros who flips cupcake, and the town puts itself at the mercy of the "proven" cop, Moratorium. A risky ploy, but feasible, and it could possibly work, especially in a game full of newbies.
Hooray, it's the same situation by lynching Barros! This quote has zero value? Can I refer you to the original quote again?jerseygoomba wrote: So, that being said, I think the least of the evils is to lynch Moratorium. If he flips cupcake, hooray! We are -1 SCUM and +1 TOWN. It has its risks, but we can always lynch Barros the next day and take our chances.
Moratorium wrote: So again. Here we are. If you lynch Barros, town is way ahead. If you lynch me, town is slightly ahead. If you lynch someone else, you're taking a shot in the dark, and most likely you'll be LYLO Day 3. The risk in choosing between myself and Barros to lynch is EQUAL, because whoever you pick, if it was a mistake, the other guy goes next. So why not pick the one with the best case, and take a shot at town going way ahead? Who do you think has made the best case, me or Barros?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
popsofctown wrote: Hm, i don't know Barros. I found YOUNG ERIC's response towny enough.popsofctown wrote: Lynching the more suspicious one helps the town more, that's what you should care about.popsofctown wrote: I encourage everyone to read this quote of me defending ERIC in context. It's a kneejerked reaction to Barros aggressive vote on ERIC, in a tone that sounds pretty much ready to drop a hammer.popsofctown wrote: I agree with most of what you said about Barros.popsofctown wrote: He's exhibited some scum tells, but I'm not sure if i'm being fair any more. He isn't any fishier then Barrospopsofctown wrote: And Moratorium's case earlier on Barros seems equally convincingpopsofctown wrote: Anywhoo, i felt like Eric was really suspicious and so was Barros,popsofctown wrote: Hmm. So worst case scenario for falsely believing Moratorium is the same as the worst case scenario for correctly believing Moratorium.popsofctown wrote: I think he (Barros) was projecting, espionage and deception was on his mind because he is scum.popsofctown wrote: Based on his post history, I do really think he'd (Barros) be a good lynch.popsofctown wrote: I'm leaning towards a Barros lynch more and more.popsofctown wrote: I must admit here. Barros looks really really bad right now. The way he claimed didn't sound totally clean, and a counter cop claim is infinitely suspicious.popsofctown wrote: At this point, i want to redeclare that i currently favor Moratorium is cop right now.popsofctown wrote: After reading this post over again, Barros's messy cop claim looks a lot like his earlier stupidities/aggressionpopsofctown wrote: But I'm becoming more and more certain that Moratorium is telling the truth (most of my issues have been believing Moratorium, because i def. think Barros is suspicious and cupcakable)popsofctown wrote: the complete breaks in logic (from Barros) are starting to get sad
..........
You give me such a headache.popsofctown wrote: Really.. not liking what i'm seeing from moratorium.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
If you go back and read the quotes in order, the point that I am trying to make is how much of a fence-sitter you are. You've stated six ways to sunday how "convinced" you are about Barros' guilt, but you refuse to actually vote. Hell, you INVENTED a voting style (I cupcake you!) just so you wouldn't have to vote anyone.
And the truly baffling part about this, the part that just makes me shake my head, is that normally, fence-sitting is just a massive scumtell. Normally, I'd be all over your ridiculousness in this game, your refusal to commit to anything, your insane theories, your wishy-washyness, all of it. But, *groan*, I think you're town! From everything you've posted, I don't read any of it as deceipt, just as a new player who can't put his thoughts together constructively.
I also agree with Capricious about this:
I don't think Barros would bring any attention to his scumbuddy in this situation by targetting him with his counterclaim, so this actually supports you as being town.Capricious wrote: I want to point out the "input" Barros has given us was his pseudo-investigation of pops. I am 95% sure pops is town solely based on Barros declaring him town. Scum just do not play like that - fake-claiming cop and declaring their partner innocent as per investigate.
And knowing that I'm going to have to deal with this for as long as I survive in this game gives me an acute pain between the eyes.
---
Now, about your little argument about me re-voting Barros and how amazingly suspicious it is. You are completely forgetting YOUR OWN ARGUMENT about why we were unvoting in the first place.
PREVENT QUICKLYNCHES SO WE CAN DISCUSS MORE.
The point that's being ignored is, no one was talking. This game was dead until I re-voted. But worse than that:
IF THE POINT WAS TO QUICKLYNCH, WHERE'S THE QUICKLYNCH????
Barros has posted since I re-voted. Anyone see Barros voting for himself yet? If the idea was to allow conversation to flow and not be interrupted by the quicklynch, well hell, I've generated more useful conversation by revoting.
Also:
Psychology and failed motive guesses. Joke's on me! That'll teach me to think that people can be convinced with math.Moratorium wrote: I took a shower, and made a decision. I'm going to take this entire game and turn it into a logical puzzle instead of a mash of psychology and failed motive guesses. I've been running the numbers in my head, and the various possibilities that could occur. The worst case scenario as I can see it now is that this post will give town a 33% chance of winning, but chances are good that those odds will be mitigated by other events.
I understand your point of view here, pops. You don't know who's innocent and who's guilty, you're probably doing what you can to figure it out, I get it. I'm trying my best, I truly am, to keep the personal attacks and out-of-bounds anger out of my post, because that stuff isn't necessary. But I'm very frustrated. Maybe I'm not doing a good enough job at expressing my points. I'll conceed that, if everyone's having difficulty with what I'm saying. But I also feel that your fence-sitting on...everything... is detrimental to town.
One thing I do know, I probably would have had an easier time just not claiming my role, and just move on normally in the game. I'll think it over several times before doing a Day 2 claim as cop ever again.
So. Pretty-please. With sugar on top. Vote Barros.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
I'm not tending to read it that way, I know it is a ploy. I'm the cop, and I investigated him as guilty.popsofctown wrote: Moratorium tends to read anything resembling intelligence as a ploy to further the scum's aims (picking me as innocent)Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
...and I addressed this as well. super.guy0 wrote: In essence, if Moratorium is faking it, he made a good decision to role-claim, and if he is not faking it they he MAY have made a good decision to roleclaim, instead of attacking Barros and hinting at his role. With his ability to look more closely at Barros's actions KNOWING that he was scum, he may have been able to pull of a lynch on him without claiming his role, and only used that as a last resort if his plan backfired.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
No.
My reasoning for investigating Barros was to maximize information.
Please indicate in my posts where I refer to this investigation as a "shot in the dark". Then refer to post 64 (Page 3 goddamn) where I am initially suspicious of Barros.
If all of my posts are just going to be "hey wow you're not paying attention, read post X", this game, which initially I was pretty pumped about because of the guilty verdict, has just turned into a big pointless slog.
Lynch Barros. If he flips town, lynch me. If he flips scum, I may die to NK anyway, but with a chance at a doc protection and another investigation result. It's not more complicated than that. Just do it already. Are you expecting me to bust out some fucking "I'm a Ninja Death Miller with 3 daykills and a Utility Belt" claim on Day 3? Jesus, half of you are overthinking this game. You're not that brilliant. The game doesn't always involve crazy 3-step plots and triple-crossing backstabs. Let it go. Lynch Barros.
I'm starting to agree with you pops, the claim may not have been the best play. But it wasn't because of the math. It's because I didn't foresee people's willingness to play dumb.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
guy0 wrote: With you thinking that knowledge of pops' alignment would be of the utmost importance for day 2, it would have been the investigation that maximized information
Glad you're thinking for me. Here's what I was actually thinking.guy0 wrote: you would have investigated pops since AT THE TIME YOU THOUGHT he was the most suspicious
So what are you saying exactly, "Your investigation makes no sense because your reasoning wasn't the same as what my reasoning probably would have been in hindsight"? Plus, following you here, had I actually investigated pops, and got an innocent (which I now believe I would), I'd have no read on Barros at all, and nothing to reveal of interest on pops. And Pops continues to write novels, and Barros continues to say not very much, and town is nowhere.Moratorium wrote: 1) I investigated Barros because I had a choice from my two FoS's in post 64: Barros or Pops. Pops was talking like crazy, Barros wasn't saying a thing. I figured if I investigated Barros, I might also be able to learn about Pops just from his constant talking. But if I investigated Pops, I probably wouldn't learn anything about Barros since he was so quiet. I went with the option that maximized information.
I refute your hypothesis.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Mis-representation of my argument.guy0 wrote: First of all, there is absolutely no way you can use the argument "well look what happened, i didn't investigate pops and it turned out to be good" because thats a just a dumb argument because at the time you made the investigation you didn't know that, which is the main point of my argument.
And I chose to CONFIRM Barros.guy0 wrote: I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense but you're still ignoring the fact that, by being the cop, you can CONFIRM anyone's alignment, so pops chatterboxyness, which could either be town or scum would have been confirmed.
I didn't do what you say I should have done, I did what I thought I should have done. You're not refuting my investigation choice, you're just trying to come up with what you think is a better one and trying to pin me to the fact that I didn't follow suit.guy0 wrote: Bunch of words about what I "should" have done.
What?guy0 wrote: I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense
I'm sorry, what was that? I missed that...guy0 wrote: I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense
Yeah.guy0 wrote: I guess your investigation choice makes a little senseMen's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
Barros wrote: as i have already said almost 100 times. You (moratorium) are in a big hurry to lynch someone.. First it was ERIC, now me. Don't you think that you're acting a little bit scummy? I don't know, just me wondering..
Day 2 started three weeks and a day ago. Thank you for your concern trolling, but I think there has been plenty of conversation to date, no one is injecting anything new, our mod has all but disappeared, several players are lurking, we're not getting replacements even though several dozen people have posted to the newbie queue in the last week, so I get to sit here and read all these garbageposts, plausibly being egged on by the other scum in this game, also plausibly being a bunch of townies trying to outwit each other. So thank you for letting us know what you are "just wondering", Barros the Mafia Goon, because surely it's not an attempt on your part to bring topics to the forefront that might get you off the hook.STD wrote: PostPosted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: 159
Day 2, you awake to a town without My Milked Eek.
My Milked Eek, townie, killed night 1
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
How surprising that you agree with an opinion that someone else came up that takes people's eyes off of you. Can you come up with anything of your own?Barros wrote: I haven't read everything yet, just an overlook. I see guy0 saying that moratorium's investigation target was too much random. I think the same way.. If he really wanted to kill a mafia (so town would be in an advantage situation) i think that the obvious target would be pops..
...what? What do you mean here, I don't understand the attack. I want to "protect town people", does that mean you don't? And why wouldn't I want to maximize information? Wouldn't you? I'm not following the logic of how this is an attack, it just seems like a string of words that don't go anywhere.Barros wrote: right.. you are always protecting town people, but when it comes to lynch someone you just want to maximize information.. good excuse Wink
I am frustrated at the lack of moderation in this game.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.- Moratorium
-
Moratorium Mafia Scum
- Moratorium
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1533
- Joined: September 14, 2008
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium
- Moratorium