Newbie 680: In this town of Cookieland... Over!

[Capricious]

Vote: popsofctown

for his biased, shameful, indignant voting system

[Capricious]

How do i subscribe to this thread?
Second question (which is a little late) is double/triple posting frowned upon here?

I don't care because I do it myself, though many apparently do.

[Capricious]

Spirit is my favorite cookie topping. I'll love anyone who gives me spirit cookies.

[Capricious]

Unvote, Vote: Barros

[/b]

[Capricious]

The vote on Barros was based on his stunning discovery of "L-3!" L-3 doesn't mean jack normally, and with 2 scum, it doesn't mean anything at all. In fact, I wouldn't care if anyone was at L-1 as long as it is for the clear benefit of the town. Scum are scared, moreso than town, scared out of their tight cupcake pants. It is very difficult for scum to hammer/contribute to hammering votes. in the first few pages, especially in a newbie game.

Anyway, of course, the vote wasn't anything conclusive. But I am glad to see we have gotten out of the random/meaningless doldrums.

[Capricious]

This whole wagon on pops smells heavily of cupcakes. Pops has posted the most of anyone, and granted, his posts are filled with WIFOM. This implies to me that he cares much about this game, which could be read differently depending on later events. However, he has not committed anything I read as scummy. The play of Young Eric is especially alarming, as he has committed the classic scum play, and I had initially felt YE was townish based on his aggressive play out of random phase.

[Capricious]

All on pops wagon: Point out case to me

WIFOM - NOT good case, everything is WIFOM reduced to purest forms

"Link with Young Eric" - Seriously? Links are 95% of the time (made-up stat) more subtle than that. Am I linked to Barros and pops because I didn't have a hammer-good reason to vote for them?

[Capricious]

Moratorium, this is a newbie game, and there are no flavor considerations involved. Plus, does it seem reasonable that scum must say cupcakes in every post?

[Capricious]

Finger of Deliciousness: YOUNG ERIC

I'm digging the pops+Eric scumbuddy theory right now, but I'm willing to see how things evolve here.

Only cookies are delicious, cupcakes are atrocious, are you implying that YE is town?

[Capricious]

Well, crap. This is what happens when I am too busy to play mafia.

I will admit that at one point, I was considering YE to be scum, but he explained himself that he was pressed for time, and was using a iphone, so his posts come off having a different flavor than if he had enough time to construct more intelligible posts.

The lynch on Young Eric was horrible; he had obviously dropped from the site for inexplicable reasons, and needed replacement. (This is the only game he has ever posted in on mafiascum, and last post was Oct 1.) People joined his wagon with excuses that he was lurking, and not providing a defense.

I am inclined to believe both scum were on YE's wagon. I do not like Moratorium's little jump-in at all.

Moratorium states in his hammer post that he realized YE was absent, as such, wouldn't it be in the benefit of the town to replace him and let the successor defend him for the good of the town?

Moratorium also says: "we all collectively think you're guilty". This is of course, untrue. But, this also indicates that Moratorium is afraid to take blame for the lynch of Young Eric, which one should never be if one is town.

In conjuction, Moratorium, to use his own words, was very "wishy-washy" in events preceding the lynch. He switched wagons between pops and YE quite a few times, as though he does not care which one dies, which is always a bad sign.

Vote: Moratorium

Also let it be known that yes, I feel pops is town, and was arguing against his lynch. I am unafraid to disclose this.

[Capricious]

ChuckNorris, the voting of Barros without any other text was partly for emphasis: showing that the vote was not random, and partly because I didn't have more time to write a more thought-out post.

[Capricious]

Unvote, Vote: Barros

[/b]

[Capricious]

I believe Moratorium fully, who do you think is the other scum?

[Capricious]

Well, the prime suspect right now would be guy0. It was a very scummy wagon, indeed. When I voted for Moratorium, I figured I was getting 2/3 odds of hitting scum. Had he not claimed cop, I would still be voting for Moratorium.

[Capricious]

Many thanks for your input, Barros, you may curl up and die now.

Unvote, Revote Barros

[Capricious]

In case Moratorium and Barros are scum together pulling an extreme one right now:

The cop must claim right now, because should the cop claim and allow himself to be lynched, then we will have got the two scum for susequent days, 100% win.

Any further cop claims after today are void, since you did not claim today, when we had a 100% chance to win should you claim.

This scenario (that Moratorium and Barros are both scum) is, of course, extremely unlikely, but must be covered.

[Capricious]

To all who are unconvinced in the Moratorium-Barros face-off. I invite you to put yourself in Moratorium's posttion, assuming Moratorium is scum, and think really, really hard. It will be like a treasure hunt! You should figure out scum from this little exercise.

A strong argument by itself, yet very weak compared to what you will find if you engage in the exercise above:

Barros copied Moratorium and called himself a "Sane cop". Whereas if you look in the PM, nowhere does it mention the sanities of cops, as cops are all assumed to be sane in newbie games. The best explanation is that Barros is unfamiliar with the role of cop, and in particular, the flavor of cop in this game. Kudos to Moratorium for adding the "Sane". You see, this is how you set a trap.

[Capricious]

i'm not a fan of this whole word pounce thing. I don't think it proves much. We still haven't heard from everyone yet, which is starting to get annoying

The verbalness is hardly the main issue in Barros-Moratorium. Go back and do the exercise I described.

[Capricious]

Who was proposing that we lynch someone else? Clearly, today's lynch must be Barros or Moratorium, Barros of course.

[Capricious]

Delayed Daykill: Barros

[Capricious]

I want to point out the "input" Barros has given us was his pseudo-investigation of pops. I am 95% sure pops is town solely based on Barros declaring him town. Scum just do not play like that - fake-claiming cop and declaring their partner innocent as per investigate.

[Capricious]

Wow

So there are four scenarios here:

M + B both scum
M scum B town
M town B town
M town B scum
Let us assume Moratorium + Barros are both scum. Then they have pinned

all hope on the 50% chance of there being no cop in this game.

If there exists a cop, then he counterclaims them both with absolute

authority. The cop then proceeds to allow himself to be lynched for

the clear benefit of the town, revealing M + B as the frauds they are.

Town wins after lynching M + B on subsequent days 3 and 4.

If there does not exist a cop, then after lynching one of M + B, the other

scum is practically confirmed as the cop. Though, sometimes miracles do

happen, and therefore we cannot give the full other 50% to the scum

team of M +B.

Based on this, the M + B team has reneged on their situation anteclaim to

accept a coin flip, of which the probability for them to win the game is

somewhat <50% out of the fruitbasket of win.

However, what was the position of M + B team anteclaim? They were 2

scum out of 7 players, and this, in itself, already grants a win probability

of somewhat >50%. Moreover, since they decided to claim, this means

they felt that there was no cop in the game, which pushes the anteclaim

position of the Barrotorium team past 50% win chance even more.

Based on the above, the Barrotorium team is a ridiculous notion, and we

may disregard it as a scenario out of the four.

[Capricious]

Let us assume Moratorium is scum while Barros is the town cop.

The actions of Moratorium conveys that he, like in the above example, will

benefit from claiming cop, specifically with a guilty investigation. In this, he is

hoping that:

Case 1: there is no cop

Case 2: the person he is accusing is the cop or the doctor









Why? for in the only remaining case



Case 3 (30%): the person he is accusing is not the cop, but the cop

exists.

In this situation, Moratorium accuses Barros of being scum, whilst Barros,

being the vanilla he is and a sensible townie, claims townie. Along comes

the real cop, who counterclaims Moratorium with absolute power. For,

should the person counterclaiming Moratorium be scum, Moratorium the

cop must allow himself to be lynched to win at once for the town.

Therefore, Moratorium cannot be the town cop, for if he was, the

counterclaimer of cop would never have acted.

This Case 3 is ruinous for Moratoriumscum, for he will have given his life

away, while only exposing the cop ( not guaranteeing the death of the cop

with the possibility of the doctor ) when the trade 1 for 1 of scum for town

is a catastrophic exchange rate.

So Moratoriumscum is making a gamble on Cases 1 and 2.

In Case 1 (50%), Moratorium is hoping to sacrifice himself for a townie

when this is already clearly a bad exchange. And yet, we must also

include the chance that the townie defends himself effectively and

Moratoriumscum ends up lynched in turn.

That leaves Case 2 (20%) as the only semi-viable goal of Moratorium

claiming cop as scum. In this case, he has Barros practically pinned down

as a town power role because he is willing to forego probability to make

the gamble, yet did not try to kill him in the night. Non Sequitur.

[Capricious]

M and B are both town.

lol

I half expect some people here to make this argument, given the state of arguments they have already put forth.

[Capricious]

In a twist of Holmes,

"when you have eliminated the unlikely, what remains must be the truth."

The other possibility is M town and B scum, and I hold this to be the truth.

[Capricious]

Throughout the game, I have felt pops is town. I have never called anyone pops "F- scum" Moratorium did that.

I think pops is talking to himself in his post, am I correct?

[Capricious]

On another note, I'm still trying to make sense of Capricious' post (math isnt my strong suit), but his backing of Moratorium by wrapping it in a wall of math-based logic all of a sudden makes me think maybe Capricious and Moratorium are in cahoots.

I was thinking about making a post about this, but you did first

Since the beginning of this day (at least) capricious always, ALWAYS, agreeed with moratorium. If moratorium says something, for capricious it is the absolute truth and the person who says it is not, he will vote you. The bigger post he made was the post where he talks about probabilities.. This is not a math game.

FoS: Capricious

transcribe "person" and "you" with "Barros-scum" and you got yourself a winner.

"probabilities":
Clearly Barros's cupcake mind occludes his cognitive reasoning. I will attempt to simplify my logic, viz:

Moratorium likes to eat cookies. He sees a cookie. He cannot afford the price of the cookie. The cookie-shop owner offers Moratorium to either flip a coin or rolling a six-sided die. If the coin lands on heads, or alternatively, the die lands on a "1" or a "2", the cookie-shop owner will let Moratorium eat the cookie for free.

Barros is saying that Moratorium would rather roll the die than flip the coin to eat the cookie. By this, he is asserting that:

A) Moratorium is idiot scum
B) Moratorium is not scum

"This is not a math game" is as egregious a statement as saying "There are currently four scum alive"

I think Barros has already resigned himself to the hellish oven of death and is having a grand ole time. Do not fear, Barros. As you approach the fiery pit that is the oven to be "Baked and frosted", your fumes are pleasing to the olfactory sense.

[Capricious]

Hi, I'm alive. Been too busy/semi-forgot about ms. *Checks* Wow, last post October 25. Should be active now.

It upsets me that Barros has not died.

[Capricious]

Mana_Ku, most, if not all, of your questions for me/ other players can be answered by poring through the game more carefully. I understand that it is difficult to read through everything as a replacement.

Viz

: In newbie games, the easiest play to make, and probably the right play for newbie scum, is to jump on a wagon for a seemingly decent reason; here being a sudden conspiracy springing up out of nowhere implicating YE with the stipulation that pops is his partner. Certainly, the use of pops as a fallback scapegoat is one of the reasons I feel he is town.


In particular, I think my 253-256 are the most informative, for they refute the argument that Barros is cop.

Mana_Ku is probably town, for she had the opportunity to lynch the cop instead of her partner. obvobv. Of course, it is possible to argue the reverse, being that Mana_Ku eats tiger gonads for breakfast while is also a masochist. Blahblah hysteria.

Pops is also probably town by the same reasoning, even if we remain ignorant of previous townish play by pops and anti-pops general sentiment early Day 1.

Let us direct to "If it looks like a scum, talks like a scum, and walks like a scum, it's probably a scum". This relates to "Scum just don't play like that".

[Capricious]

Got off that cupcake real quick...

I had to laugh at this. "Boy, pops, you sure jumped off your fictional, meaningless non-vote there, if you go so far as to

Bagel: Barros

I'm definitely going to have to

unCreamCheese

and

Maple Syrup: Pops

."

This game is retarded.

Are you discontented? Regardless of pops's capricious style, he is still making a doubleplusgood play here with his goodthought on the most important issue, that of the cops. Perhaps you are more unhappy because of Barros acting like a flounder in a chocolate factory. Barros understands he is in a tight spot, and has no good arguments at his disposal, and so gives arguments that require the use of doublethink to understand. Such arguments are painful to read.

[Capricious]

mmmm maple syrup. Bagels! cream cheese!

[Capricious]

STD is too busy for MS, do we have a back-up mod?

[Capricious]

It's a good time to hear everybody's opinion on everybody else.

[Capricious]

We have two confirmeds already, being the cop and doc. All we need are three players we feel are solid town to win.

[Capricious]

The doc can confirm himself by claiming, and I think that's the best course of action, because Moratorium has been reduced to, effectively, a vanilla.

[Capricious]

Moratorium hadn't claimed, so the RB blocked someone else.

[Capricious]

I have just realized that Mana Ku was the one who replaced Chuck Norris, this is bad.

[Capricious]

Aw, But I like my mystique.

It's minor. I was rereading, investigating the posts surrounding the UNI-Lindisfarne-Chuck Norris line of hydras, and concluded it to be town.

[Capricious]

I want jerseygoomba to give his thoughts or pseudo-thoughts on everyone first.

[Capricious]

The following are posts of substance:

[Capricious]

1. I am Doc

[Capricious]

2. guy0 should die today

[Capricious]

3. pops should be kept alive should guy0 be town

[Capricious]

Follow up:

I protected My Milk Eek night one. Of course, this enabled me to see the set-up from that very time. This helped me to judge the Barros-Moratorium situation with my added information because one, I had no doubts as to the set-up, and two, I was the only person to actually vote Barros during the first day, and if we are to assume that guy0 and Barros are the scum team, the only person to vote a member of the scum team as well.

Night two I protected Moratorium by default, although I deliberated whether to try something else as any alert scum would see that the best play is to RB Moratorium. However, protecting Moratorium was a must.

So the Night actions are:

Day 1

Mafia kills My Milked Eek
Mafia roleblocks Capricious

Moratorium investigates Barros,
Capricious protects My Milked Eek

Result: My Milked Eek dead, Moratorium investigates Barros guilty

Day 2

Mafia kills Mana_Ku
Mafia roleblocks Moratorium

Moratorium investigates ____
Capricious protects Moratorium

Result: Mana_Ku dead.

[Capricious]

A very interesting question is why am I not dead yet, and also why I was roleblocked day one.

[Capricious]

The role is useless if the claim was not made today. Not claiming in hopes of a successful night protect is counterproductive, for then we would again have the situation of two counterclaims, except now it is lylo. Alternatively, we may go into a 4 player 1 scum draw by no lynching, but that was undesirable.

[Capricious]

Honestly, am I stupid enough to claim doc as scum?

I am equally confirmed as Moratorium.

[Capricious]

We have two confirmeds already, being the cop and doc. All we need are three players we feel are solid town to win.

I had thought of this long ago.

[Capricious]

Vote:Jerseygoomba

This is also a death sentence for guy0. If pops is scum, so be it.

[Capricious]

This two month-plus marathon has ended

[Capricious]

The decisive factor in pops' townness was Barros's "pops is not scum!"

Both scum

were

on the day 1 mislynch. Is it really scummy to think that?

[Capricious]

guy0 had way too much intriguing interactions with Barros,
Notably, "Some people are being a little too aggressive", which either referred to Barros's non-random vote on YE, or my non-random vote on Barros.

"But he makes a decent point about Barros so I'll have to look more into Barros's posts in the future", while simultaneosly FoSing pops

Also, he was on the day 1 wagon.

[Capricious]

Me, i thought pops was town from the moment he was lumped in with YE in the day 1 confusion and plot, but the Barros investigation is what should've convinced everyone else.

[Capricious]

It was a WIFOM situation, barros could have been picking the unexpected side.

but one of the two wines was heavier than the other one, I've already said this.