Micro 972: E7 [Game Over!]
Forum rules
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
A bit about me, since I love talking about myself:
I play on EpicMafia. It's a live chat / browser mafia site, but we have a burgeoning forum community, too. I ended up liking forum maf to the point that I pretty much play it exclusively now.
I think my posting style can be--pretty spammy, honestly? I'm a product of my environment. Playing on MS feels like playing mafia in a country club, versus playing on EM, which feels like playing mafia in a back alley behind a seedy restaurant. On EM we meta constantly, we AtE, and there's usually at least one OGI incident or modkill per game. (I won't do any of that here.) No one knows how to host properly and we don't have any kind of setup review, so games are usually some kind of wild, unbalanced PR madness. It's really fun.
I have two game on MS, one on this acc (a scum game), and one on a hydra (a town game). The hydra's name is Oromis. I can also dig up plenty of EM games, if people want to see them. Tbh, I haven't gotten that much value out of metadiving people. But they're there, if other people want them.
Looking forward to playing with everyone.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Something I've been thinking about. Is it possible to catch scum on page 1? Methodically, I mean. You can guess, of course, and sometimes you get it right. But over many games, can you beat rand? Based just off opening content?
6 of us have posted our bullshit opening lines. At least one is scum. Who is it? Is there even a way to tell?- joqiza
-
joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
I've seen lolhammers in the past, and I guess I could see the not-confirmed Player 7 / AFK stumbling back in and hammering. But that wasn't really a concern. I didn't think anyone would really hammer in a 7p.
More, the amount of votes just felt wrong. She said, "ego." It's not commensurate with three votes to me, not after 1 page.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
I'm not following the implication.In post 37, PenguinPower wrote:Wonder what might have happened if she came back to that...
What do you think would have happened?- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
I was thinking about voting you last night, but in the end didn't really feel the need to. I was pretty sure people were going to come back in here and react to the Page 2 content. A vote felt ceremonial.In post 65, Billy Pilgrim wrote:
So why just unvote and not vote me? You had said you thought I was scum based on my opening. Which I guess makes you a United supporter, but you just unvoted rather than voting me. Why?In post 40, joqiza wrote:I think I'd prefer to find a scumread first, and then apply pressure, instead of the other way around. Or at least E-1 pressure. PR/VT tells are a thing too.
RVS is still a bit awkward to me. We don't really do it so much on our home site. Rather, we ask each other questions and we vote when we feel something. I don't really scumread you yet. You just ended up being M when I put a gun to my own head.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Dong, would you say you read my exchange with PP as SvS? That's the sense I'm getting from the way you've phrased your posts. Or is there a different way you're thinking about the interaction?In post 64, Donempire wrote:Joqiza seems town here, way too towny in fact. I'll have to think about this some more because the rapid fire responses seem planned. I dont know if its a PP joq pairing yet, but penguins questions feel weak and joqs seem too strong.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
In post 64, Donempire wrote:Joqiza seems town here, way too towny in fact. I'll have to think about this some more because the rapid fire responses seem planned. I dont know if its a PP joq pairing yet, but penguins questions feel weak and joqs seem too strong.In post 76, Donempire wrote: Thats what i mean. It seems unnatural to be asking such lightweight questions for pp in specific. Maybe im just being a contrarian. I dont buy the exchange, anyway.
I'm not gonna dispute the way you've phrased some of this. "way too towny", "too strong", "very confidently". I appreciate your word choice.In post 84, Donempire wrote: Not only is the wording weird, (who tf says absent of questioning) he speaks very confidently for something thats clearly rvs.
I think it's totally an interaction that could be seen as SvS, at surface level. We did basically show up in thread at the same time, exchange what amounted to a few pleasantries, talk about some game theory basically, and then PP outs a TR on me and we both leave. So I can see it in a way. (A bit too obvious, maybe. And I usually distance my partners.)
The only post I think is unfair is 84, because as PP already pointed out, that's me responding to him. I'm mirroring his language in order to make a point.
In general I think I'll end up having a "strong" and "confident" tone this game. (Self-serious could be another descriptor.) Someone once told me the vibes I give off are "confident with a twist of crazy."- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Do you mean the way I've approached RVS so far, when you mean EM meta? Or do you mean something else?In post 93, Donempire wrote:I guess my read comes more from not having meta knowledge, but i guess someone coming from epic mafia would play like this.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
PP and Lost both just TR me. That's one TR, not "tossing everyone they see into townpile." And I think 86 was a joke.In post 93, Donempire wrote:On another note, i dont like penguin/lost/almost just tossing people into the town pile. I think its frankly too early to do anything like this and im sure at least one of them is scum. Town wouldnt, or at least shouldnt feel comfortable tossing everyone they see into townpile just 4 pages into a game.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
I don't really see the harm in throwing out some early reads tbh. Based purely on rand every other player is already town with 66% certainty. It doesn't take that much additional data to form a townread. I can sort of vibe with the whole "constant vigilance" thing cuz I'm pretty cautious myself, but that stems more from me not liking being wrong. In terms of gameplay it's fine throwing out some early reads, as long as you stay open and re-evaluate as new information is presented.
I'd like to see Lost come back and... give some more takes on shit. Cuz rn he's just chilling on E-1.
Lastly, imma VOTE: Almost50. I don't know where his head's at. Give me something.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Believe it or not, on my homesite I'm considered like the midrange in terms of post volume. I'm rarely the highest or near the highest. In EM games we can rack up 2,000 posts in a couple days, easy. Not trying to throw shade, just a different atmosphere. I'm not used to feeling like I have to drive content.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
I don't have one. He turned up "M" in a gut-read exercise that I've been doing in my games recently. If I had to say why, it's probably because his opening line was addressing another player, in a way that felt like it might be comfy for scum. I don't actually put much stock into a page 1 read. I just posted it to get people talking about something. Start of the game felt anemic to me.In post 111, Lost wrote:also can you better explain your read on billy- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Not really. I can't unvote this one since I'm not on the wagon. Arguably it is a non-associative but IMO surely if I were scum I'd take a chance to put my partner on E-1 early. I would rather get your takes on the interactions between players this game. Even gut reads can be helpful.In post 116, Almost50 wrote:Btw, does me putting someone @E-1 mean anything to you?
Am I interpreting 115 correctly--you TR penguin? Why?- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
In terms of just his posts, there hasn't been much to sway me on his alignment. He has some simple questioning. It doesn't do much for me. I don't know what any of his reads are yet. I assume he will share at some point, and at that point I can start trying to dissect him.In post 120, Lost wrote: what do you think of his posting recently? or rather, what do you think of his non page-1 posts?
In terms of associatives, I made a note to myself to keep an eye on him/Nona. I don't necessarily think this is a viable team yet, just noticed some weird stuff. On phone now so posting is a pain but will elaborate more in a bit.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
The thing about Dong for me, is that, yeah I disagree with a lot of the logic of his posts. I think the SvS read on me/PP was pretty basic, and the 1+/3 pool read in pp/lost/almost was like, pretty contextless (to the point where he had to immediately walk it back to just lost).
Despite this, I just don't know that the way Dong plays is really how scum plays the opening. My man has not outed a single townread. He came in with a big brain 2/2 and then decided to shade lost and almost as well. I kind of stan the energy even if I disagree with the post content itself.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Why would you not? Seems like an excellent move to me. Early wagons dissolve easily and scum can win this setup by building a sufficient non-associative with their partner.In post 149, Billy Pilgrim wrote: Why would you want to put your partner at E-1 early if youre scum?- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
BP ostensibly meta-diving Dong makes me feel a bit better about him. I'll have to think about it more. I've seen scum use meta to justify reads before, and I've done it myself, but not quite the way BP did it. And he seems generally concerned with making sure he's sorting players by player type correctly, such as in 155. I like that.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
I'm actually a bit loath to peel back my process, cuz once you out a tell it becomes less useful going forward. But this game is just moving too slowly for me so here's where my head's at in terms of associatives. Maybe this will get people discussing a bit more.
A word on the methodology for the table below. The odds of correctly guessing the scumteam, given no information other than rand, is 1/30, or 3.33%. The corresponding % of picking any two players and correctly stating that "these two are not the exact scumteam together" is then 96.66%. Basically, it's an easy read to make, and I usually wouldn't approach the game this way, but with only 6 players to sort, I think there actually is PoE value in approaching the game like this. There are only 15 possible scumteams one needs to consider--with some analysis, one can reduce that.
Note that this table is secondary to my individual reads on players. I still favor the "one-scum-at-a-time" approach, and I intend to eventually vote the player I scumread the most, on their own merit. Viable partnerships will factor in but will not be the ultimate decider.
Dark Green:Some evidence that they are not scum together
Light Green:No conclusion beyond rand (the light green color is chosen to indicate the high likelihood that they are not the exact scumteam just based on rand)
Yellow:Keep an eye on / needs further evaluation. Note that this doesn't necessarily mean I think they're more/less likely to be the scumteam than rand. Just that I find their interactions curious and want to focus on it.
The letters: A, B, C, D, and E correspond to the below cases.
Spoiler: A
Spoiler: B
Spoiler: C
Spoiler: D
Spoiler: E- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
A couple thoughts:
- Nona is currently viable with everyone. That's because SHE'S ONLY POSTED FOUR TIMES. She's getting outposted by the mod! It's annoying and it makes her impossible to read.
- I had a few other cells colored in, that after some review I decided to set back to rand because I didn't feel like the evidence was sufficient. To that end, if people have other cases, I'd be open to hearing them.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Nona, you awake to find yourself strapped to a chair, suspended above a pit of BOILING LAVA. A masked man is laughing evilly at a control panel and DEMANDS that you name at least one scum in this game or else he sends you to your doom. Obviously you can't know for certain. You have to make an educated guess. You have one chance, WHO DO YOU SAY?- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
In post 195, Almost50 wrote:So -in short- I haven't even read any your posts, aside from this one I'm responding to.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Here's what I think about Nona, by the way. I think she could flip anything at this point in time. She could flip town. She could flip scum. I don't know. Getting content out of her is like squeezing blood from a stone. I look at 197 and I say, "yeah, it's not wrong," but nothing actually makes me confident on her alignment. If she's town I just want her to towntell because I'm simply not AFRAID of her if she's scum. If she's scum she gets yeeted. My fear is that she's TOWN and she's not towntelling. That's literally my main concern with her, to see there's town in that slot that I need to wrangle out like I'm some kind of snake charmer.
I can vibe with a scumread on her but only if it's a rock solid PoE where you simply believe that the other slots are towny to the point that surely she must be scum. I simply cannot buy that you are capable of a read on an 11-poster but not a read on me when I have 40x the word count and by all rights you should be focusing me. If I'm scum, I'm dangerous. I'm widely TR and clearly motivated. I can't wrap my head around the concept of having a town role PM, wanting to play to your town win condition, and choosing not to read my posts. I would never not read me.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Btw. I disagree generally that pre-flip associatives aren't useful, though I do think they're, like, secondary or whatever to your individual slot reads. That said I won't die on the hill for these, tho I do think the PP/Dong/mod interaction is actually quite useful. It's the one I accept completely and it tells you without a doubt that there must be at least one town in that pair, which is actually really useful.In post 192, Lost wrote:
this isn't addressed to me, but i read all of them and none of them feel particularly well substantiated. or more specifically, none of them are substantiated enough for me to want to use them to educate my current reads. too many reaches with too little evidence, and most importantly, they're all associative tells before any flips, which makes them even less useful.In post 179, joqiza wrote:Did you read my case on Almost/Penguin? Do you agree?
Anyway, I mostly outed them to get some kind of reaction or SOMETHING going. Response was pretty lackluster so I won't dwell on it.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
What does "townie post title" mean here, btw?In post 193, Lost wrote: nona has like a couple of completed games and is still holding a townie post title- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Nona, you said this, earlier. I sort of took it to mean you were townreading PP. What changed? Or is that not what you meant?In post 101, Nona wrote:back.
i got town vibes from joqiza and pp's interaction earlier.
i also like billy pilgrim's question above^- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
1. You don't get to wait until after a flip to read when we only get a single miselimination.
2. I'm not making a meta claim about my scum game, lol. I'm saying that based on my presence in this game alone you should be very concerned with determining my alignment! But I guess if you're not reading the game to begin with you wouldn't know that!- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
See, what I'm trying to do right now is envision myself in your shoes and understand if you, after opening a town role pm, could possibly make a post like this:
If I sound incredulous it's because the level of apathy needed to write that does not jive at all with how I choose to play mafia. Obviously we are very different players and that's what makes this hard! I am trying to reach you and understand you but it's difficult. The thought of not having a confident solve is literally physically uncomfortable to me when I'm town, like I need to have some sort of belief to what people's alignments are or else I can't stop thinking about it because I keep imagining every possible scenario. I'm not saying I'm always right but the one thing I try to reach is a certainty about my read on people. That wishy-washy "I don't really know, maybe they could flip scum..." is anathema to me and I will do everything possible to move away from that state of being.In post 210, Almost50 wrote:I don't want to. The consensus is that you're town. Either the majority is correct OR it would be hard to convince then to eliminate you today.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Look, I understand not focusing on someone in, like, the beginning of Day 1 in an 11p or something. But this is a very small game with very sparse content, I don't think I'm making an unreasonable ask here.
The other thing is we only have one ML before we're in LYLO as opposed to the usual two, and for that reason, I'm pretty concerned with lynching scum today. I think if we lynch scum today we can win outright, I think if we don't lynch scum then we're in very dangerous territory. The thing about LYLO is that it only takes one town voting wrong for the mafia to win. You can literally know mafia and not have it make a difference, in order to win every town needs to be on the same page. Given how the game has played out so far, I simply don't trust that will be the case if we lynch wrong today.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
@Almost50
Why would I NOT care about what your read is on me? I am trying to assess if your reads come from a genuine, uninformed, town perspective rather than a fabrication of that. Let me re-phrase what I'm interested in. It's not that I care about your read on ME, it's that I care about your read on the player with the highest post volume and most significant thread presence in the game. That is actually not usually me! But it does happen to be me in this game!
Why does this even make sense? Why would I not want you to look my way if I'm town? What benefit does it confer me that you refuse to read me? The reason I'm pushing it is because I think you ignoring me is scummy.In post 215, Almost50 wrote:You claim to be concerned about eliminating scum today, and -if you're town- you should be content I am not looking your way. Period.
Saying that I'm waiting until tomorrow to read Nona is an outright falsehood. Every post I make towards her is basically me, on my knees, begging her to give me something to work with. If she doesn't contribute more I'll put her on L-1 but I honestly could see town!Nona just walking back into thread and just claiming her role instead of actually bothering to towntell in response to that.
My issue with you is that you claim to be able to divine this sort of read on Nona of "unconfident scum" when in my eyes there's little to suggest that she couldn't just be town that doesn't give a shit. I actually do find the little content she has pretty questionable but for the most part she is unreadable so far and so my strategy is to read AROUND her, figuring out to the alignments of the other players in order to PoE to her alignment. Which is why, by the way, I'm pressuring YOU. You, meanwhile, claim to have figured Nona out while also not having a read on me or Dong.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
Also this, quite frankly, is not something that would ever happen. I'm pretty sure the Cop just claims tomorrow in almost every scenario.In post 215, Almost50 wrote:want to collect reads from today and then compare them to reads provided tomorrow in order to spot the Cop.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
See the thing is I'm used to playing mafia with people who aren't a bunch of robots.In post 219, Billy Pilgrim wrote:
Holy shit, are we playing mafia or did someone sign me up for group therapy and not tell me?In post 206, joqiza wrote:Nona, I want to hear exactly what you think of Almost50's push on you. I want to hear the emotional response you had when you saw his vote and read his case on you. I want to hear what you think of the logic he presents, and I want to know what your read on his alignment is.- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
- joqiza
-
joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- joqiza
-
joqiza Goon
- joqiza
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 926
- Joined: May 3, 2020
So the bad news is that you've hardclaimed VT.
The good news is that I feel decent about this. The Dong observation particularly. I'm not quite there on Lost, I don't think he's been scummy per se but his questions seem pretty basic and I don't really seem why him chilling on E-1 for a few pages is clearing. If you can get me there that would be great. Genuinely open to hearing your point of view.
I agree that a me/you/Dong/Lost townbloc puts Penguin/Nona/BP in the PoE, but I don't actually follow the SRs that far on either Penguin or BP. With Penguin, I sort of like his straightforward posting style, "Fair," and his statement about the nitpick. Just basic tonal stuff which seemed non-showy and he communicated himself clearly. With BP, it sounds like I need a better understanding of whatever meta you may have on him.
Also, how are you reading for scum PR? Just proclivity to bussing?
I actually appreciate this so thanks. - joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza
- joqiza