Mini 1993 - Earthbound Mafia: Giygas' Curse - GAME OVER

[Mathdino]

I mean was anyone assuming a role other than what she's clearly softing

[Gamma Emerald]

Btw it's possible Assembler siteflaked; if so, would just play on my main, but I am still giving him time to see stuff.

Also, figured I'd ask:
MOD: If hider A hid behind Bodyguard B, who protected scum nightkill C, would the hider die?
If so, assume same as above, only scum strongman kill C. Would hider A still die?

Scenario 1, the Hider dies. Scenario 2, the Hider doesn't die.

[Almost50]

And yes.
I am both a protective,
Yet also know thanks to my role scum have no roleblocker.
When you see my role, it'll all make sense how I know that.

I would rather know while you're alive so as to be able to fully trust you (that would really make the game go smoother), but whatever. I also understand why someone would not want to out certain parts from their role, and I even hate it when people keep pressing for more info when I'm trying to give them what they need and keeping what's best kept hidden.

P-edit: OK. I'm officially a dumbass as I can't even figure what Mastina's softing. I really feel like I should take a short break from playing altogether.

[Momrangal]

This is fun and all, but I think we should really get the lynch we should have gotten yesterday
VOTE: Acrayon

[Almost50]

This is fun and all, but I think we should really get the lynch we should have gotten yesterday
VOTE: Acrayon

Not until we figure out a few things and everyone has weighed in. I mean acrayon doesn't look any scummier than he did yesterday, but we already lost 2 townies still, so I'd rather be a little bit more careful and try to think things through.

[Momrangal]

I mean was anyone assuming a role other than what she's clearly softing

I'm thinking there may be more to it

[Momrangal]

Figure out what?

Paradox hid behind Ico, scum shot Ico and somehow overrode MDs supposed protection.

Even though Mastina says otherwise, I don't think what she's softing can't coexist with RB, especially a scum RB.

It makes sense to not only have a strong man, but a RB as well as some other things to deal with Town PRs

[Momrangal]

And if for whatever reason Acrayon is town, it still wouldn't make Dino scum because he would be too accountable for Ico being dead.

If he was scum it would have been a smarter move to shoot elsewhere

[Momrangal]

Though I can agree on wanting everyone to weigh in.

I'm curious to how Dino came up with his "this is townfolk that are imploding" list.

He has IB off that list, as well as myself when I feel like I specifically aided in pushing IB out of his implosion and move his direction elsewhere.

I'm also curious to why he has Acrayon inside his town implosion list as well all things considered because well... He caused part of the implosion. There's no way we could have fussed what would have happened when we had gotten him funneled like that

[Almost50]

And

if for whatever reason Acrayon is town

, it still wouldn't make Dino scum because he would be too accountable for Ico being dead.

THIS is what I'm trying to figure out. If we rush a lynch on a townie today we are likely to be down 4 by tomorrow, or 6 vs 3, so one lynch away from LyLo.

As it is we can only afford 2 mislynches, and I would rather not blow our chance away by rushing things today.

Let's examine acrayon as scum. Why would he/his team shoot one of the two he gladiated the day before? If he is scum he knows they are town, right? Why flip either so soon? Once we know the WHY we probably can deduce the WHO, so let's say acrayon is the designated lynch if we can't settle on a better lynch on the next 2 weeks.

[Momrangal]

@mod can we have a current player list with who replaced who?

[Carrot and Stick]

As promised,

Spoiler: mastina posts to quote

Phoneposting, will quote from hydra when able to.

From what I can gather, Paradox PROBABLY hid behind one of {acryon, Mathdino, Iconeum}, loosely least to most likely. (Math and acryon could be switched.)

It's unfortunately most likely that he his behind the night kill, and while his hider role crumb is clear, his hider TARGET isn't; I only have this as a guess off of some posts I can quote when home.

Reminder: scum have no role blocker, so that was a strongman kill. (Technically speaking, could be Math as scum simply lying, but that'd be a fine way to ensure that he got lynched.)

Will talk more when home from work, and cast the acryon vote I want to do right now but can't since am on wrong account.

Also,

MOD: do we get to know role details?
I.e., if the hider dies when hiding behind scum, behind the night kill, the JOAT powers, etc.?

Btw it's possible Assembler siteflaked; if so, would just play on my main, but I am still giving him time to see stuff.

Also, figured I'd ask:
MOD: If hider A hid behind Bodyguard B, who protected scum nightkill C, would the hider die?
If so, assume same as above, only scum strongman kill C. Would hider A still die?

Brafin:

cAn someone remind me how we know ther is not roleblocker but there is a strongman?

Because I say so.

My role 100% GUARANTEES they have no roleblocker. Mathdino claims that he did in fact protect Iconeum. He wasn't role blocked as per my guarantee, leaving two options:
Mathdino is scum who lied, killed who he said that he'd protect, knowing full good and well how sketchy that'd appear …
…OR, far more likely, it was just a strong man, which makes sense with multiple protectives.

And yes.
I am both a protective,
Yet also know thanks to my role scum have no roleblocker.
When you see my role, it'll all make sense how I know that.

Also,
VOTE: acryon.

Btw--
Some unfinished business:

time out. who is this? how do you know me? I've been out the game for over a year...

You probably figured this out overnight (especially if you had scumbuddies to tell you ), but it's literally in the signature of this account. If that wasn't a tipoff, if the overusage of ':P' wasn't a tipoff, then the fact that I'm quoting my mastina posts should be one.

Wait, I read 942 in full and none of it seems particularly supertown. I'm pretty sure mastina is just irrationally calling it town because he agrees with her.

Um...did you read what I actually said? I said exactly this. It looks good to me, but it is not something which kthx can't produce as scum. (I mean, that's mostly because kthx is a really freakin' strong scum player, butstill.) It is not agreeing with me that makes it good; it is the nature of the points and how they are presented which makes it good--good, but not necessarily town. Enough to give hesitance to a scumread, not enough to remove suspicion altogether.

I [*vomits*] trust (AGHHH) Not_Mafia on this acryon read.

I don't. Not_Mafia I believe believes himself to have reason to call acryon town. That I do trust. I don't believe his reasons for thinking acryon to be town are valid.

What happened to your Mathdino wagon?

Mathdino did something I thought made him town, acryon did something which further made me think Mathdino was town, Mathdino claimed just about the one role I'd have believed from him in a believable way (for instance, he sincerely believed he did not have a counterclaim which scum would obviously not think), and the results of the night given Mathdino's declared actions are not indicative of what he'd do if he were scum.

He could have killed anyone--killing his claimed protection draws unnecessary attention to himself and further suspicion, making him look much, much worse. While it's theoretically possible a scum him made that move fully believing he could get away with it by saying he was framed or the like, there's little reason to believe that the town would believe him.

Why didn't you make note of reads similarities to me? As town, you would know my scumread on you would be wrong...and you would attempt a reach-out to me. You would try to get me to work with you.

And as scum I'm just gonna keep on letting you push me knowing that eventually you'll get me lynched.

Yes my problem is exactly that--that's what you're more or less doing. You're not giving additional information, deliberately holding back from giving further content. That is the hallmark of a scum player who wants to avoid giving too much information away when she knows she'll flip later.

You're not someone a person can work with while you are scum reading them. I am not going to dissuade your read on me knowing that time will do that on its own. There is nothing productive that will come out doing that.

The thing about that is, this is you talking about what mastina has a reputation for being--not what mastina actually is. You have the long-term knowledge and first-hand experience to know the real me, and to know this ISN'T true. You know it is in fact perfectly possible to work with me when I am scumreading you and to get common ground...yet you did nothing to try to reach it.

That's a problem.

Your actions don't speak of town who know I'll come around because you've made no effort there to reach out to me someone who you probably consider a friend (I know I certainly call you among mine at the very least).

Your actions speak of scum who knows that the more you give me, the more likely I am to be accurate.

Except that the ability of town to alternatively vote for a NL makes most of this invalid.

Except no not really.

One: you might not have known no lynch was possible. There were multiple ways this could have happened.

Two: Even assuming you did in fact know it was possible, you would not necessarily think that possible = assured. I laid out precisely why people would be willing to mislynch Iconeum/Mathdino post-gladiate when unwilling to do so pre-gladiate and unless you can counter THAT point my argument stands. We did eventually no-lynch, sure, yes...but we did so only after I fought for it and advocated for it and gave good reasons for it. For every post you can quote of a player supporting a no-lynch, I can quote at least an equal number of posts from players stating they'd be willing to if not outright PREFERRING we lynch. And no matter how much you try to ignore those posts, the fact that they exist backs my argument up.

Three: Even if you DID manage to counter that argument, it still doesn't change the fundamental fact:
No scum lynch on D1 > scum lynch D1 for a scum player.

That fact doesn't change.

Surely C&S is better than to support this wild speculation. Especially considering the fact that I have never played as a gladiator before, you don't think I would make clear how it works?

Not speculation. Fact. The mod hasn't flipped the details of the role PMs. I know from my own role PM that details aren't given in the role PM proper. (Which, in hindsight, means I probably need to claim some time, maybe today, but certainly by tomorrow.)

This is something which others can and to some extent already have vouched for. Role PMs are ambiguous. You asking questions about your role doesn't guarantee you ask the RIGHT questions about your role. That is also fact. The simple fact is that there is no guarantee you knew the details of your role PM. The speculation is assuming you would. Not the other way around.

If you recognize that this line of thinking is flawed, why are you entertaining it?

The line of thinking isn't flawed. In THIS game, we managed to get the support for a no-lynch. Scum, however, are not psychic. They cannot predict this in advance. In fact, they have every reason to believe otherwise. If they didn't ask the right questions, they wouldn't know it was possible. If they DID ask the right questions, they'd know it was possible but only IF it reached absolute majority and if the town didn't get majority behind backing no lynch then one of the gladiated players would be lynched by default. (So if they did know about the no-lynch option, they'd know how unlikely via mechanics it was to obtain.)

And furthermore--they knew there was suspicion on Mathdino. They had no way of knowing I'd reverse my scumread on him. They knew there was potential suspicion on Iconeum if opinions like InfernoBrafin and BuJaber are anything to go by. It is not hard to assume that when a gladiate is forced, players with stated suspicions on those slots would suddenly vote them.

When you add in how many players detest the theory of no-lynching on D1, where they'd rather mislynch town "for information", because "the slot COULD be scum"...and how this is not at all an uncommon site trend...in fact it is pretty much taught to newbies by default...and exists nigh-universally that we 'MUST' lynch D1...then it's not hard to guess that even those who had stated an unwillingness to vote for either would when push came to shove be willing to vote for one or both to ensure that wouldn't happen.

Between those three factors, scum would have good reason to believe a no lynch wouldn't materialize even if they knew a no lynch was an option in theory. And I firmly believe that I can say without any arrogance that had I not been in the game, we never would have no-lynched. Because it was only after I advocated for it and made my points that no lynch began to gain traction. Yet the scum had no way of predicting this. They had no way of knowing I'd strongly, adamantly, push the idea of that no-lynch. They were, once more, under the belief that I'd never relent on my Mathdino read. (Because that is my reputation rather than my reality.)

In short, you as scum did what you did because you thought you could pull it off--that you didn't isn't relevant to the situation because what's important is what you THOUGHT. Not what happened.

This is a key factor people forget when doing scumhunting.

What happens in the game cannot retroactively be used as evidence to justify a mindset of what happened prior to that event happening.

In this case, the fact that we no-lynched cannot retroactively be used as evidence to justify a mindset that scum believed it would result in a no-lynch. Evidence existing prior to the no-lynch suggested it was in fact possible, even probable, we would have a guaranteed mislynch.

[Not_Mafia]

I'm never voting acryon

[Momrangal]

Pedit: ok, fine

[Momrangal]

Your actions don't speak of town who know I'll come around because you've made no effort there to reach out to me someone who you probably consider a friend (I know I certainly call you among mine at the very least).

Didn't you get something last night?

[Almost50]

I'm also curious to why he has Acrayon inside his town implosion list as well all things considered

That's another problem. I myself was pushing acryon on D1, but I'm starting to doubt my read there as he did nothing scummy apart from the initial move (vote) that pinged me. The gladiator use was suboptimal, and I think we can all agree on that, but it wasn't especially scummy. In fact, the way he used it could hardly have come from scum. (But maybe that's just me? I mean, I would've asked everyone to name their top SR aside from me then gladiate the top 2 candidates and blame it on town).

[Carrot and Stick]

Brafin:

cAn someone remind me how we know ther is not roleblocker but there is a strongman?

Ehhh screw it, I think this info needs to be stated since my role is likely to be posted in the same format as Iconeum.

Iconeum is a backup of my role. (Something I guessed at D1 which is one of the reasons I was defending him so adamantly--I don't know HOW, but somehow, I just

knew

that he was a backup JOAT specifically.)

My JOAT has an investigative action I am not disclosing at this time, but this is why I doubt Not_Mafia has anything indicating acryon to be town.
My JOAT has a roleblocker--this is why I know scum don't have one, because RB vs. RB is an ugly interaction moderators want to avoid. (Theoretically speaking, scum could have a jailkeeper I guess since RB vs. RB variant isn't as ugly, but as a general rule of thumb, mods avoid doubling down on roleblockers.)
My JOAT has a protective action I am not disclosing at this time. This is why I counterclaimed Mathdino, but indicated our roles could coexist as town a belief I maintain to be true.

The nature of my role is such that it is a role which would fit as a scum role, thus my comment about it.
The nature of my role is such that because my protective in spite of being stronger than a bodyguard is only one-shot is why I believe Mathdino's bodyguard claim and also believe that the kill was strongmanned.

I'd prefer not to flavor-claim since if I did that might give away the exact investigative/protective powers I have (I don't know how closely associated flavor is to ability), and I'd very much prefer not to claim what specifically my investigative/protective powers are and I CERTAINLY would prefer not to claim what action if any I took last night at this time until I deem such information pertinent, but these are all important facts to know which I feel would be lost if I died before revealing them, so here they are.

[Momrangal]

I disagree on that. The use of the gladiator seemed pretty survivalistic, at least in the short term. That isn't something that I can see from town

[Momrangal]

Pedit: that was to A50

[Carrot and Stick]

I'm trying to deduce WHY that was the NK. Was it because Iconeum was on the right track? Was it because he crumbed something? Or was it to have 2 Townies down with one shot?

Iconeum was the nightkill for a combination of reasons.

1. To frame Mathdino
   .
   Mathdino was publicly on record as protecting Iconeum--Iconeum's death overnight would thus place Mathdino in an incredibly awkward, defensive position come D2 where the default assumption would be to be suspicious of "I protected him, I swear!" even though that's the truth.
   
2. To kill the hider
   .
   While this isn't as certain since it isn't as certain Paradox was breadcrumbing specifically an Iconeum hide, Paradox was unambiguously stating he was a hider and Iconeum was at the very least if not an assured hide a fairly high probability hide.
   
3. Because Iconeum could not be lynched
   .
   Scum tried that on D1 with the gladiate, but with it having failed then, that was proof they were never getting him lynched.
   
4. Because Iconeum was a competent player
   .
   His reads might not have been the most perfect, and he might not have been the most charismatic, and he might not have been the most obvtown, but he was immune to the lynch (see above), he was on the right track, and he was raising good point after good point so even if he wasn't right on everything he was dangerous enough to take out.

This is the same reason Iconeum was the gladiate; an attempt which failed to get rid of him.

[Carrot and Stick]

I mean was anyone assuming a role other than what she's clearly softing

I also warned you that you were thinking the wrong role since everyone was thinking I was a jailkeeper. When I said you wouldn't know my role until I claimed, I meant it.

Also still think that Momrangal and Almost50 should be lynched at some point.

Once more, I acknowledge that while it's

possible

Mathdino is scum, it's unlikely enough that I'm not considering it for a long, long time. My readslist as a result remains mostly unchanged:

BuJaber
The Worst
InfernoBrafin
alban/marshy/Not_Mafia

Mathdino


Beefster
Kthxbye

Lil Uzi Vert/Almost50




Momrangal




acryon

This is a fair approximation. I would prefer to have Beefster/Kthx locked down better; my reads there keep fluctuating. Almost50 continues to not send off any townvibes and quite a few scumvibes since coming in. Momrangal and acryon I've more or less explained already.

[Momrangal]

VOTE: Carrot and stick

[Almost50]

The use of the gladiator seemed pretty survivalistic

Why wouldn't town want to survive?

Let me rephrase: If you were a Town Gladiator that was put @L-1, would you not have used your 1-shot ability still??

[Momrangal]

Last night you should have gotten something, and you're ignoring it. Something that substantial proof that I'm not scum

Pedit: no

[Momrangal]

Town doesn't have a reason to want to survive, tactically. Scum do.