Mini 1993 - Earthbound Mafia: Giygas' Curse - GAME OVER

[Momrangal]

But you aren't confirmed town

[acryon]

But you aren't confirmed town

We're talking about from my perspective, where obviously I am.

I know I haven't played this game very well. Most games I have played have been pretty role-light, so I'm used to playing pretty straight-forward and doing very little setup spec. I admit I'm out of my element there, but still thought I should contribute where it seemed like we were going wrong.

[Mathdino]

The towniest shit A50 has done is accept his own lynch on the condition that we lynch mastina. That's actually not a shit deal.

But see, you didn't argue hard against the A50 lynch until you realised that you might also get lynched today.

[acryon]

The towniest shit A50 has done is accept his own lynch on the condition that we lynch mastina. That's actually not a shit deal.

But see, you didn't argue hard against the A50 lynch until you realised that you might also get lynched today.

I argued against it a good bit, but saw the merit in going through a flip (especially on someone so controversial) and then going through with our night plan. When that plan changed to lynching me afterwards and

without

any additional info, it gets a lot worse. Are you really confused about why that would be from my perspective?

[Mathdino]

The night plan is seriously just bad if A50 flips town though. Scum can easily just have mastina or Beefster roleblock me and kill whomever I'm guarding.

[acryon]

The night plan is seriously just bad if A50 flips town though. Scum can easily just have mastina or Beefster roleblock me and kill whomever I'm guarding.

But then aren't we

certain

one of them is scum? And if that's such a fear then why aren't we just lynching one of them in the first place?

[Mathdino]

Because the goal is to block the NK and the roleblock
And having them block each other does so

[BuJaber]

Acryon fuck trying to convince you it's mechanically right based on claimed PR's.


Let's lay it down simply:

The worst case scenario for us using the double day is, as you've put it, 2 mislynches followed by lylo, right?

Okay so lylo means lynch scum or lose. And any subsequent day after that will still just be lylo.

Basically it comes down to this: if we flip two scumreada and they are both town and we can't figure out who scum is between the remaining players especially considering our PR claims, we don't deserve to win and it doesn't matter because we just aren't winning. In a world where we fuck up that badly it really doesn't matter when we use the double day vote.

Actually I'm so confident right now that pretty much the only way we lose this game is if math is scum. And like I threatened him multiple times I'm policy-lynching him at lylo if I'm alive by then. So even that scenario town wins.

ALL OF THIS IS ASSUMING WE MISLYNCH TWICE IN A ROW which is by itself probably unlikely.

[acryon]

Because the goal is to block the NK and the roleblock
And having them block each other does so

Ok, but that's in the scenario that A50 is scum. It just feels like we are hinging too much on that.

Also if C&S and Beefster are both scum, irregardless of the flip they can just make the kill and end up implicating someone like BuJ.

[Kthxbye]

Icon was exhibiting textbook scum play to me, and you were believing and following lines that made no sense for town!MD to follow IMO.

Wait a tick. I'm on phone so I can't track this down easily, but didn't ypu say you were town reading at least one of them when trying to explain your gladiate?

Anyone?

[BuJaber]

Unless NM specifically received a PM from the mod saying acryon is town I don't understand anymore his refusal to vote for him.

[acryon]

Icon was exhibiting textbook scum play to me, and you were believing and following lines that made no sense for town!MD to follow IMO.

Wait a tick. I'm on phone so I can't track this down easily, but didn't ypu say you were town reading at least one of them when trying to explain your gladiate?

Anyone?

No. Why would I ever gladiate someone I was townreading? I had mentioned my scumread on Icon before the gladiate, and MD had been moving around in my reads a bit, but his pushes leading up to it just didn't make sense to me from his perspective.

ALL OF THIS IS ASSUMING WE MISLYNCH TWICE IN A ROW which is by itself probably unlikely.

This is my point

. The scenario of the double-day means our next two lynches in a row are more or less uninformed. And remember from my perspective, this plan involves one lynch that is

assuredly

a mislynch, so we're already half way there.

[BuJaber]

Icon was exhibiting textbook scum play to me, and you were believing and following lines that made no sense for town!MD to follow IMO.

Wait a tick. I'm on phone so I can't track this down easily, but didn't ypu say you were town reading at least one of them when trying to explain your gladiate?

Anyone?

Yes I'm pretty sure he said he scumreads Icon.

No he didn't explain this part exactly like this but from what I understand and recall his plan to get enough votes on Icon was to pit him against a widely townread player. And I guess in his mind if math got lynched then we as town at least confirm MD's alignment for sure (at the time mastina was flip flopping so it would have shut up everyone arguing about MD).



-pedit: lol acryon .. the part you quoted doesn't support your case. It's proof against it. We win even in the worst case scenario is what I'm saying. There is literally no downside.

[Mathdino]

Actually I'm so confident right now that pretty much the only way we lose this game is if math is scum. And like I threatened him multiple times I'm policy-lynching him at lylo if I'm alive by then. So even that scenario town wins.

i just want you to know that i would never have taken this deal if i wasn't literally trying to die every night
also remember that mastina probably rolecopped me and confirmed me as BG; scum bodyguard with 0 town killing roles is just negative scum utility

also i'm still pretty sure that N_M is convinced acryon is town based on flavour

[BuJaber]

Actually I'm so confident right now that pretty much the only way we lose this game is if math is scum. And like I threatened him multiple times I'm policy-lynching him at lylo if I'm alive by then. So even that scenario town wins.

i just want you to know that i would never have taken this deal if i wasn't literally trying to die every night
also remember that mastina probably rolecopped me and confirmed me as BG; scum bodyguard with 0 town killing roles is just negative scum utility

also i'm still pretty sure that N_M is convinced acryon is town based on flavour

I know mate. I have other reasons for making this deal that don't just involve you agreeing to it and us being able to trust one another. Though of course that part did help me trust you when I wasn't 100% sure you're town.

[Mathdino]

Btw BuJaber do you think your claim will add anything to the discussion
My understanding is you've basically claimed vt-esque role like compulsive visitor

[acryon]

-pedit: lol acryon .. the part you quoted doesn't support your case. It's proof against it. We win even in the worst case scenario is what I'm saying. There is literally no downside.

What are you talking about? How are uninformed lynches not a downside?

Yes I'm pretty sure he said he scumreads Icon.

No he didn't explain this part exactly like this but from what I understand and recall his plan to get enough votes on Icon was to pit him against a widely townread player. And I guess in his mind if math got lynched then we as town at least confirm MD's alignment for sure (at the time mastina was flip flopping so it would have shut up everyone arguing about MD).

This was not my plan. MD and Icon were both players that I could see being scum and could also see skating by for a loooong time if they were scum. Seemed a good opportunity to try to nail one of them.

[acryon]

And remember, from my perspective, this plan is

especially

bad because I know my alignment. I understand to an extent why you wouldn't see that, but to me this is lining up lynches on town.

[Momrangal]

If everyone made that argument, every lynch would be bad

[acryon]

If everyone made that argument, every lynch would be bad

It's not quite that simple. There are several factors that make this bad to me:
- Lining up lynches in general (fundamentally bad)
- Lynching someone I think is town (bad based on my reads)
- Lining up a lynch on me (bad because on my facts)
- Making consecutive lynch decisions the day we worked out the setup but

without

taking advantage of our PRs (strategically bad)

[Mathdino]

I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN MASTINA/MATHDINO WERE PLANNING TO TAKE OVER

ACRYON, ALMOST50 IS EVIL

FROM MY POINT OF VIEW THE TOWN ARE EVIL

[Almost50]

Because the goal is to block the NK and the roleblock
And having them block each other does so

You do realize them vlocking each other doesn't accomplish anything or clear anyone though. Right? Because there are THREE GODDAMN SCUMS out there, and any of the other too is going to do the kill, and there is still the chance that Scum do have a strongman anyway, and thus will bypass your protection on X (I don't recall whom you're supposed to guard. kthxbye was it?)

My commuter guarantees I can't be NK'd, but if you really wanted to direct the NK away from the PRs you would've forced me not to commute and would've guaranteed I get shot because that would be their only chance to actually hit me.

Instead you're doing their job for them (notice that I'm assuming your Town here, because if you are scum you certainly deserve the win after all your mumbo jumbo that left most everyone literally confuzzled.

Tell me again, why can't we lynch Mastina now with IB doubling the day and if she by a miracle flips Town then lynch me, If she flips Scum you are guaranteed I won't be shot (assuming you'd allow me to commute) and we can work out the second lynch based on her flip.

"No, but that messes up the cross-blocking of Mastina-Beefster", you would probably say. Well if she flipped Scum you know Beefster is Town. If She flipped Town you know Beefster is Scum. The problem is we don't even KNOW Scum don't have a Strongman, and if they do your night plan is just bullocks.

[Mathdino]

here we go

1. We have 2 opportunities to lynch one scum today outside of the roles relevant to the night plan.

2. It's hard for me to accept the idea that you're this delusional to the point of still assuming you could possibly be nightkilled. Why would scum ever want to kill you over the 3 protectives and 3 investigatives?

3. No one seems confused except you and acryon tbh. The plan works. Like, this isn't even a misrep. People just agreed to the plan and that's that.

4. Yeah, that messes up the crossblocking of mastina/Beefster.
Recall that I made a list of potential candidates for the strongman. They are as follows:
acryon: Literally claimed Captain Strong
A50: Ascetic strongman is a role I've seen before.
Bujaber: Which would make him a lying liar
IB: Which would assume a crazy role so this is only lightly possible.
N_M: Meaning he's lying about motion detecting acryon.
the worst: Who is unclaimed.

So who here is the strongman? Because I'm trying to lynch the 2 most likely candidates.

[Almost50]

Why would scum ever want to kill you over the 3 protectives and 3 investigatives?

1- Because it's the one only chance they get to
2- Because OBVIOUSLY not all three in each group are Town

By NOT shooting X over Y or Z you would still have to guess which of the 3 is Scum, and it has much better odds for you to get it wrong between the 3 rather than between just 2.

[Mathdino]

Yes, scum are going to kill the person that is most likely getting lynched at some point this game.

Sensible, sensible.