Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[ofrhz]

@ruru- I do think your personality comment makes sense, I'm just going to leave that thread at that for now.

[Scioness Sajj]

1. Sure this sounds plausible at first glance. But say someone else brought ruru to L-1, who do you think would've quick hammered? eth0s, drixx, northsidegal? any of those people seem like the type of people who would jump the gun and quick hammer?

To be crystal clear, I no longer think your unvote was that suspicious. I do think we should be more comfortable as town with bringing someone to L-2, because I think people respond differently depending on the amount of pressure put on them.

pedit: @Sajj - 2. In a word, no, especially in light of her last post. I just need her to address one more thing that was making me suspicious about her. In case we misunderstand each other again, the rest of the people who have been active seem townish to very town to me; I leaned scum for ruru, which by default, made her the most suspicious out of everybody.
pedit again: 3. Dude, she's not in danger of being lynched. If she gets brought to L-1, I would have reconsidered, but like I just said, who in this game is stupid enough to quick hammer this wagon?

1. I really don't see a reason to have one wagon when there are 4 people bearly in the game. My point was never 'don't quickhammer', it was I have solved my issue and I had no reason to kept it there just for the sake of having wagon.
2. My last question wasn't from pov that I'm afraid she will be lynched, it was made from pov where you have a vote on her since early in the day and yet you have kept that vote without trying to sort/interact with ruru. You didn't do anything with that vote for a fairly long time it was there for no visible reason hence parked.

[Scioness Sajj]

ebwop
in your quote put 2 in the place of 3.

[Scioness Sajj]

My mind didn't really change, I had a pressure vote on her. It gave me some answers I was looking for and that's it.

OK, and what's your current read on her slot?

scummy newb town

304 more than skitter, feels like people are coming around to voting her and no reason to put her into claiming theritory just yet.

Ofrzh wasn't wagoning her there and I kinda feel like if people unvote every time a wagon gets to L-2 we'll never get anywhere. Also my L-2 vote wasn't exactly an indication that it was time for her to claim.

Where do you want to get with five people playing the game right now? I feel like I have answered that in 351.

[ruru]

I meant reactions to pressure, not to the game; you haven't been under pressure at all this game and that alone makes me slightly suspicious.

OK, why is that suspicious?

Scum don't want to lynch each other on day 1, so if one scum player is not attracting any attention, the other will probably be happy to let that continue.

Yes, I am. I feel like the 1v1 is not the most interesting topic. I think it is likely a TvT because I think Oxy is pretty towny and SS is something like 3/4ths town. And if SS is scum, I think it will be easier to find out through game developments than by spending all of day 1 on her. Also on a personal level I'm not having that much fun reading so much of what feels more like Oxy and SS arguing about nothing and less like deduction (is day 1 always like this when there's a 2 week deadline?).

Yeah, I agree that the 1v1 wasn't particularly interesting and that it was a slog to read-through, and I can understand why you might not have read all of it. *However* I don't really like that you're not doing much to try to sort scioness. (oxy you've come to a conlusion on). Like you're responding to questions she has for you, but you don't really seem to be trying to interact with her outside of that. Now that I think about it, you seem to be playing a pretty reactive game. (ie as opposed to proactive)

I did read it, I just didn't enjoy it. I'm confused that you think I could be trying to distract from SS vs. Oxy, but also that I'm playing reactively rather than proactively.

Do you think moving on from SS vs. Oxy is pro-town or anti-town?

I don't think she leans town but I do think a wagon on the other 3 neutrals is more likely to give useful information at this time.

like arghhhhh I can't let this go

You said in 321: "I think it is likely a TvT because I think Oxy is pretty towny and SS is something like 3/4ths town." Earlier, I wasn't asking why you aren't voting Scioness Sajj, I just want to know why you determined this was likely town v town and SS is "3/4ths town" (isn't 3/4ths town the same as "leans town?"), since earlier you said you couldn't read her.

There are 8 other players, 6 of whom are town; that's where 3/4ths came from. And although I don't have a read on her in isolation, I suspect it is actually more than 3/4ths for her (and the other neutral reads) to be town, because I find two players fairly scummy.

[ofrhz]

1. I really don't see a reason to have one wagon when there are 4 people bearly in the game. My point was never 'don't quickhammer', it was I have solved my issue and I had no reason to kept it there just for the sake of having wagon.
2. My last question wasn't from pov that I'm afraid she will be lynched, it was made from pov where you have a vote on her since early in the day and yet you have kept that vote without trying to sort/interact with ruru. You didn't do anything with that vote for a fairly long time it was there for no visible reason hence parked.

1. You're just talking over me at this point. I quite clearly stated that I no longer found your unvote suspicious - there's no reason for you to feel like you need to defend your actions. Also you made it clear in 313 that you were concerned with her claiming and possibly being lynched.
2. Ah I see your question now. I had my vote on her because she was the most suspicious. In general, I'll probably leave my vote on someone who I think is the most scummy. This is true even if I don't want to see them lynched right away, because I don't see why I need to retract my vote right away if they're not in danger of being lynched. Also, because ruru was pretty active in the first RL day of the game, I assumed she would continue to be active and make other posts that I could follow up on. But when she didn't do this, I think I did egg her on.

There are 8 other players, 6 of whom are town; that's where 3/4ths came from. And although I don't have a read on her in isolation, I suspect it is actually more than 3/4ths for her (and the other neutral reads) to be town, because I find two players fairly scummy.

To make sure I understand, the "3/4ths town" comment was purely based on probability?

[ruru]

There are 8 other players, 6 of whom are town; that's where 3/4ths came from. And although I don't have a read on her in isolation, I suspect it is actually more than 3/4ths for her (and the other neutral reads) to be town, because I find two players fairly scummy.

To make sure I understand, the "3/4ths town" comment was purely based on probability?

Yes

[ruru]

@Pinturicchio
Do you have any examples of town!Pin that I could look at where you entertain highly speculative "tin foil hat theories" on D1?

Can't answer that because rules, but yes. Actually, Newbie 1854 is a good example too, as I replaced in and began with my wacky theories almost in the same way I did there.

I assume this refers to 407, since your original entrance was less dramatic in that thread?

Your tone is fairly confident in 1854 as well, but when it became tinfoil hat time you didn't have nearly the same certainty as you did in this game. What's bothering me is that in this game you had both the certainty and the tinfoil hat at the same time (and then went back on it, but only after people found it scummy).

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is. That was a pretty blatant post connecting them at the hip. I suppose it could be an intentional fake out... but that would require a tremendous level of self awareness to realize how he would react if he was paired with Oxy and someone pointed it out and then actually react exactly that way and hit all the right notes.

Since Drixx hasn't shown up, does anyone at all have a clear explanation for this post? I'm still not getting it.

[pinturicchio]

@Pinturicchio
Do you have any examples of town!Pin that I could look at where you entertain highly speculative "tin foil hat theories" on D1?

Can't answer that because rules, but yes. Actually, Newbie 1854 is a good example too, as I replaced in and began with my wacky theories almost in the same way I did there.

I assume this refers to 407, since your original entrance was less dramatic in that thread?

Your tone is fairly confident in 1854 as well, but when it became tinfoil hat time you didn't have nearly the same certainty as you did in this game. What's bothering me is that in this game you had both the certainty and the tinfoil hat at the same time (and then went back on it, but only after people found it scummy).

I was not refering to a specific post but my playstyle as a whole, but yeah, that's a good example! About confidence: I blame myself for losing that game exactly because of my lack of confidence in my own reads, and I'm trying to improve: that's why I have said multiple times that I seem more confident than I really am! There's a better example of this, but as I said, site rules.

What do you mean by "(and then went back on it, but only after people found it scummy)"? I'm not following you with that statement.

[pinturicchio]

You have too many townreads. I've waited for your case on skitter expecting a scumlean or even a scumread because scum!Oxy would need at least two or three scumreads to fabricate the mislynches. If you are scum, townreading so many people is suboptimal as in a LyLo situation where you are placed with two towns and you, by PoE you would be lynched just because of your good cases on town. You are a good player, my friend, and you would not do this as scum. I was wrong, and I'll have to reread everything with you being town from my perspective.

Missed this post til just now...

Huh. I guess since I only ever read/watch games to scum hunt I've never really thought about it that way. I am upset with you, my friend. I enjoyed hearing you narrate fantastic tales of scum!oxy's genius, and I was eagerly awaiting the next installment. =)

Tbh, I felt flattered to the point that I almost didn't want to dispute them.

Well, I'm upset with you for towning it up to a point I just can't see you as scum! Tinfoil hat theories are in a thin line between greatness and absurdity; that's the risk of following them.

[pinturicchio]

Pinturicchio, if you aren't going to vote me anymore, you should put your vote here.

Let me keep my faith on eth0s, I have my own reasons to believe it's the best course of action for us! Not gonna lie, I thought he would already be here by now, but I'm ok with waiting one more IRL day.

[Scioness Sajj]

1. You're just talking over me at this point. I quite clearly stated that I no longer found your unvote suspicious - there's no reason for you to feel like you need to defend your actions. Also you made it clear in 313 that you were concerned with her claiming and possibly being lynched.
2. Ah I see your question now. I had my vote on her because she was the most suspicious. In general, I'll probably leave my vote on someone who I think is the most scummy. This is true even if I don't want to see them lynched right away, because I don't see why I need to retract my vote right away if they're not in danger of being lynched. Also, because ruru was pretty active in the first RL day of the game, I assumed she would continue to be active and make other posts that I could follow up on. But when she didn't do this, I think I did egg her on.

1. I'm not really defending I'm explaning becuase you don't understand. Yes, I was concerend about putting her at L-1 but it doesn't mean that I'm concerened with quickhammer.
2. Alright, so you have parked a presurre vote on her for four days. Did you get any conclusion from this? I mean, do you think her behaviour changed?

[Assemblerotws]

Vote Count 1.06

Not Voting [4]:

northsidegal, Drixx, Scioness Sajj, pinturicchio

ruru [2]:

ofrhz, skitter30

eth0s [2]:

ruru, Oxy

Scioness Sajj [1]:

eth0s

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2018-04-03 09:00:00) on

April 3, 2018

.

[Scioness Sajj]

Update on my reads and scumpool since NSG asked:

Ruru - up to a townlean. I think her intentions are geniue. She has 'passed' my pressure vote.
Scumpool of {Oxy, ofrhz}
ofrhz - towny on his own, I don't like his play that much after the scumteam of Oxy/ofrhz has been mentioned, though.
Oxy - since I have made my post with reasoning on my townlean he has been proving me wrong. If one is scum so is the other imo.

Don't really see a reason to wagon inactive slots (drixx & eth0s). Drixx has no reason to lurk and eth0s is inactive in both of his games.

VOTE: oxy

[Oxy]

quelle surprise

[Oxy]

I think game might just be solved: Sajj+eth0s

[Oxy]

Drixx has no reason to lurk

scumslip and spew.

[ofrhz]

2. Alright, so you have parked a presurre vote on her for four days. Did you get any conclusion from this? I mean, do you think her behaviour changed?

I think she had reasonable explanations to almost every question, mine especially, except skitters line of questioning about why she didn’t have a read on you. I don’t understand why she is being cautious with you, but I also don’t read her scummy for it.
I don’t like how she had to be prompted to be more active in the game, but this is something I want to “wait and see” before passing judgment.
I disagree with her scumreads, but at least she is following up with them.

scumpool of {Oxy, ofrhz}
ofrhz - towny on his own, I don't like his play that much after the scumteam of Oxy/ofrhz has been mentioned, though.

I guess we’re back to this. What haven’t you liked about my gameplay?

I don’t really understand the eth0s votes, is he more likely to make this game a priority if we wagon him? Also are you guys comfortable with policy lynches?

@oxy - why sajj/eth0s and not sajj/drixx?

[ofrhz]

UNVOTE: ruru

[Oxy]

@oxy - why sajj/eth0s and not sajj/drixx?

I'm really just speculating because it's fun, and because I'm waiting for others to post. I wouldn't really push this analysis until we had a sajj red flip, for instance.

So why do i speculate eth0s is scum!sajj's partner?

What would scum!sajj benefit from lynching you over eth0s for example?

I noted at the time that this could be Sajj spewing her partner. Of course, it could also be the exact opposite.

Drixx has no reason to lurk and eth0s is inactive in both of his games.

"Drixx has no reason to lurk" is too definite. It's like she knows that Drixx has no reason to lurk because scum lurks and Drixx isn't scum. On the other hand, "eth0s is inactive in both of his games." feels like cornered scum who checked his activity because she's frustrated he isn't here to help. Again, it could be the opposite. I will say, if Sajj flips scum as I expect her to, her partner is probably in these two. There's also like a 1/100 chance that her partner is Ruru, which is why she might have been overly cautious of that wagon. I don't subscribe to this theory, though. I don't really subscribe to any of these pre-flip.

Analyzing spew is an art, not a science.

Sajj is scum, though. I get more sure of that with every post she makes.

[Oxy]

I also called it because I want to swag in post game if I'm right.

[eth0s]

Yo I am giving this whole game a re-read with analysis on anything that stands out to me... starting now.
Forgive me if I mention things that have already been covered, or if I spam posts a bit.

[Drixx]

In that same post you're talking about (87) skitter says she's getting townvibes instead of obv!towning ruru. So no, not the same.

Fair

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is.

That was a pretty blatant post

connecting them at the hip. I suppose it could be an intentional fake out... but that would require a tremendous level of self awareness to realize how he would react if he was paired with Oxy and someone pointed it out and then actually react exactly that way and hit all the right notes.

Which post are you referring to: 20 or 245?

Interesting that you want to narrow the options down to a post on the first page or one of a series of posts you made preceding my post. Why are you trying to control the narrative like that?

because I'm town and if Ofrhz is only scum when I am scum, then Ofrhz must be town. Like I said, the confirm only works with the 100% knowledge that I am town, but it turns out that I am in that advantageous position. ;P

But I don't understand either your argument or Drixx's or what post makes the link???

I didn't say

If, and ONLY if

which would need to be the situation for what you're pushing here.

I need to do some re-reading but just based upon how these two have tried to be subtle and nudge things to their advantage gives me the heebie jeebies.

[Oxy]

hey, maybe if you hadn't written a super ambiguous but intriguing post and then went MIA for over two days, you wouldn't come back to confusion.

[Oxy]

Could you please explain the case for Ofrhz being scum

iff oxy=scum

It's not like I was hiding the fact that I thought it was an if and only if situation. You'll notice I dropped it the next morning once I realized that there was no iff situation.