Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

also why no interest in the 4s and 5s?

That would be because you're not reading what I'm typing, perhaps?

fuck off, man

you know as well as i do that scum is not literally {1, 2, 3}

why is iconeum MORE likely to be scum than TW? why lynch in increasing order?

and since we know scum is not {1, 2, 3}, that confirms someone as scum outside that group. going by your logic, that would heavily implicate a 4 or 5.

your theory at its most basic makes sense -- there's scum in the low numbers. obviously.

but you don't seem to be acting in a way that's actually in line with you having thought through your draft-based setup spec.

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I should have KNOWN I missed something important when I SURREPTITIOUSLY and SWIFTLY SKIPPED that SETUP SPEC SPIEL (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

I think generally if someone does something that doesn't make sense if they're town, they're scum. I do often see scum taking refuge in audacity, doing things that make no sense so people are like "why do that as scum?"

LOVEBIRD can you TALK TO ME about WHY this sort of reasoning is MORE likely to come from scum? Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑)

When I first read it I liked the NUANCE of the angle but after some sleep it doesnt ping me as town BUT I don't really scumread it? 「(°ヘ°)

Also where do YOU think Math-sensei's townread of you is coming from? (ﾉ^ヮ^)ﾉ*:・ﾟ✧

[the worst]

Lol, animal block posting rn. If you count dinosaurs.

T rexes are very like birds, according to certain experts on the subject

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

HUMANS are members of the KINGDOM of ANIMALIA aswell (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Probtown: Beefster, SIMYK

ALSO Math WHAT moved beefster up to ME in your readlist? （＊〇□〇）……！

[the worst]

that is SOME SERIOUSLY SUPER thinking SASKE ヾ(〃^∇^)ﾉ

I want to lynch mutant a liiiittle bit

[the worst]

Math please explain your flip on Beef?

[Mathdino]

i'm not invested enough in no longer threatening him with a policy lynch

to actually defend the fact that i'm slightly townreading him

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Mathdino what did I SAY about policy lynches..... （╬ಠ益ಠ)

[Mathdino]

that they're a great motivation to stop people from

- making shit votes with 0 reasoning

- self-voting in lylo?

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

So is ACTUALLY ENGAGING with them and TEACHING THEM BY EXAMPLE what good play looks like (҂⌣̀_⌣́)

[the worst]

Exactly the TWO go in TANDEM

^ω^

[Ircher]

Night 3 Vigilante/Vengeful: people keep crumbing this, stop crumbing. vig/venge someone based on community consensus. i doubt town picked vengeful but if anyone claims vengeful, policy lynch them (this is optimal play)

1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO: vig someone who's either dead weight or is likely to be lynched tomorrow. luckily we have a list of "most likely to be PR" to "least likely to be PR" so just try to hit vanillas imo. doubt anyone ever picks PGO in this setup

Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector: we hypoclaim cop targets tomorrow, remember to actually act like you have an inno

Universal Backup OR Role Cop: role cop is surprisingly not terrible. rolecop people at the top of the list. look for scum picking vengeful, redirector, etc.

Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor: i sincerely hope no one picked fruit vendor. neighborize talkative hard-to-sorts who won't get NK'd. i used to be a great neighbour but now i just get NK'd so don't neighborize me thanks

Yeah, stop with all the setup speccing please.

[Mathdino]

have you been shot by a vigilante in this setup after getting cop cleared, jailkept, neighborized, and roleblocked?

no?

towns are stupid, i don't trust them

i will setup spec all i damn well please

[Ircher]

Konnichiwa minnasan! o((*^▽^*))o

VOTE: Almost50

I PERESONALLY believe that the Beefster wagon is SILLY on principle - scum would be FOOLISH to immediately claim that they picked a slot with a ROLEBLOCKING role in it considering how IMPROTANT that is to scum ( ⚆ _ ⚆ )

We shouldn't be POLICY lynching people UNTIL we have good reason to scumread them and as far as I am COGNIZANT we only possess reason to believe that Beefster is ALIGNED WITH the TOWN ヾ(｡･ω･)ｼ

You are aware of bold and italics, yes? Also, remind me, what does cognizant mean? Regardless, I believe in the WIFOM factor and thus am ambivalent about the claim. Policy lynching is okay in some circumstances tbh, but I don’t think this is one of them.

On a side note, minor scumread on MathDino right now—too much setup analysis and appeal to WIFOM as well as suggesting a policy lynch for no real reason other than disagreeing with when someone decides to claim. Not all antitown behaviors are worthy of policy lynches.

[Ircher]

In my history with Beefster I have seen

- town Beefster take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and generally correctly conclude that he's coming from the right angle
- scum Beefster not take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and suggest he's scum for them

Actual read progression/flip flopping in Earthbound is the only transgression I can think of

So my firsr impeession of Beef is lolscum, what makes you townread him?

I do strongly consider meta, but are you really confident enough with your meta read to call Beef “lockscum”?

[the worst]

In my history with Beefster I have seen

- town Beefster take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and generally correctly conclude that he's coming from the right angle
- scum Beefster not take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and suggest he's scum for them

Actual read progression/flip flopping in Earthbound is the only transgression I can think of

So my

firsr impeession

of Beef is

lolscum

, what makes you townread him?

I do strongly consider meta, but are you really confident enough with your meta read to call Beef “lockscum”?

careful with wording there (fml i can't spell)
1. first impression sod1
2. lolscum is a first impression read, 'lockscum' is something I pretty much only use mechanically

[the worst]

On a side note, minor scumread on MathDino right now—too much setup analysis and appeal to WIFOM as well as suggesting a policy lynch for no real reason other than disagreeing with when someone decides to claim. Not all antitown behaviors are worthy of policy lynches.

this is a really really bad post

[the worst]

decisions, decisions.......

[the worst]

VOTE: Ircher

[Ircher]

wow.... i possess NO repsonse to play like that （￣へ￣）

still I am one WHOM believes in REFORMATION! just because he's a BAD townplayer doesn't mean we have to burn a MISLYNCH on him, we can simply ENCOURAGE him to play better and have confidence o(*≧□≦)o

(as town ftr)

I am cognizant of the implication ^_^

I strongly agree with this post.

[Ircher]

anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50

This just hit me like a brick

Also assume Saske is town by draft because scum would never let someone pick such a high number?

I townread Saske for their reads, not the draft. I feel that picking a high number helps ensure you don’t conflict with someone else, so I wouldn’t rule out Saske scum.

[Ircher]

interestingly, FMPOV, while everyone would've had a 3/13 (or 23.1%) chance of being scum

due to the draft ruling out a bunch of scumteams, each of the singletons (this includes janitor FMPOV) actually has a 26.2% chance of being scum

the probability of someone in a duplet being scum is 21.9%

the probability of one of the triplets being scum is only 18.5%

scum is straight up more likely to be in the top half than the bottom half in this setup, and i'm guessing i can prove it using past results

so the risk early on is lynching potential PRs

VOTE: MathDino

[Ircher]

SIMYK is an alt yeah
so is the janitor

janitor the problem is that you seem more focused right now on tearing down information than building it
the point of early game is to go from low information to high information

i literally provided calculations proving that in this setup, there are people who are more likely to be scum
we have information, both from the draft and from 5 pages of content
but instead of commenting on it you've just questioned reasoning that i made in my first post
which i did specifically to produce more information.

How do you know SIMYK is an alt when they keep denying it?