Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Lovebird]

Mathdino

mutantdevle

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Ausuka

the worst

davesaz

Eddie Cane

Lalendra
Myloninja13
The Janitor

Lovebird

Iconeum
Taly

Ircher

Couldn't remember reasons for janitor town, same with mylo. Only taking out eddie and mutant because I think ausuka is scum.

...You're making reads without remembering why? And just coasting on that instead of taking new information into account?

No? I reconsidered a read because couldn't remember my original reasoning, so probably not all that strong in the first place. Wtf does second sentence even mean?

[Lovebird]

I wonder how so many people don't understand what I say when it's not that complicated.

[Lovebird]

Btw, met my quota of getting called bad.

[Eddie Cane]

scum love their vanity wagons

[the worst]

VOTE: Taly

vanity wagon hoooo

[the worst]

loljks

VOTE: Lalendra
actually starting to feel like I'll be disappointed if Lovebird is the lynch here
she's actually fine

[Lovebird]

loljks

VOTE: Lalendra
actually starting to feel like I'll be disappointed if Lovebird is the lynch here
she's actually fine

Yah. What even are people's reasons why I'm scum? Iconeum says my scumread is based on "weak reasoning" and means I'm scum, but it's not. Awkwardness in speech valid a reason as any. More valid than reasons against me, really.

[the worst]

itt iconescum calls everyone out for weak reasoning
(aka. me too)

[Lalendra]

I'm V/LA for the weekend so if y'all could not lunch me while I'm not here to defend myself, that'd be swell. I'll check in if I can but no promises.

[Lovebird]

Anyone up for last minute flashwagon?

[the worst]

on who?

[Eddie Cane]

I just spent about 2 hours on a post and my internet went out and killed it so I'm about done with this game rn

[the worst]

fuuuuuccckkkkk

[Lovebird]

Any non-striked from my most. Of course, I prefer ausuka most.

[Lovebird]

From my list

[Eddie Cane]

the basic jist is

i'm doing wholistic solving

using other people's reads to try and gather real AI info that's factual and not whimsical

its really time consuming though and i am not spending another hour doing busy work so i'm just going to post the last saved draft (from an hour and a half ago) and work off that later. warning: said draft has no actual info from it, i wasn't even done with the busy work never mind the solving..... (

[Eddie Cane]

no solving in here yet

Spoiler:

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Ausuka
davesaz
Eddie Cane
Myloninja13
Taly
?? Ircher

Lovebird
Lalendra

ヽ(〃･ω･)ﾉ TOWN ヾ(･ω･｡)ｼ
Ahiru-tan
Eddie-kun
Math-sensei
Taly
Ausuka-chan

( ≧Д≦) SCUM (≧Д≦ )
Lovebird
Ircher
davesaz

Town reads on Ircher and Taly.
Weak town lean on Beefster.
Wanna look closely at people on Ircher wagon.
The Janitor possible scum.

Long name with lots of complicated ascii art and random words in CAPS looks town

Current readslist, since multiple people have asked:

Town:
Mathdino - His play is a little different than what I am used to here, but I think it's largely due to him not being super confident on who's scum. Usually he picks someone and runs them over like a truck, and while he's not doing that here, it still strikes me as town!Math.
Mutantdevle - Feeling pretty confident in town!Mutant here, largely because I agree with his reasoning and like the way he is presenting his thoughts. Seems like he's actively trying to gamesolve.
Simyk - I don't have any meta experience with Simyk, but they seem invested in gamesolving, are trying to advance the gamestate, and their tone is very towny.

Townlean:
davesaz - I wasn't sure how I felt about A50 but davesaz has moved this slot from null to townlean for me. Not as confident as I am with the townbloc above, but good vibes.
Eddie Cane - Again, not confident enough to say town for certain, but good vibes.
Myloninja13 - There really hasn't been enough from this slot to say for certain, but I'm feeling town.
Iconeum - I like what I've seen from them but need to see more active participation.
Taly - This seems like town!Taly from my meta experience.

Null:
the worst - Honestly not sure about this slot, I want to say town but feel like I can't make an unbiased opinion. Their tunneling of me could be town-motivated but I'm not crazy about the reasoning behind it; then again, I could just be mad they're tunneling me. I can't be impartial enough to figure it out yet.
The Janitor - I don't hate their posting but I'm having trouble determining whether it's a playstyle thing or actual scumminess.
Lovebird - I can't make sense of this slot either way.

Scumlean:
Ausuka - Nothing I've seen from Ausuka has struck me as particularly towny, especially the waffling/soft defense of Ircher and the defensiveness in their tone.

Scum:
Ircher - For the reasons I outlined in my last few posts.

This is only a vague list of my more solid townreads and scumreads.

Everything

NOT

in here is either some form of conflicted, null, or read I'm working to sort.

Town - Top To Bottom In Confidence

Mathdino
SIMYK
Ausuka
Ircher
Eddie
Janitor
TW (Still Relatively Confident Even At Bottom)

Scum - Bottom To Top In Confidence

Lalendra (Most Fragile)
Lovebird

high town: Taly, SIMYK, TW

likely town: Eddie Cane, davesaz, mutant (sheeping)

nulltown: Myloninja, Lovebird, Ircher

everyone else: Ausuka, Iconeum, Lalendra, Janitor

Town:
davesaz
Eddie Cane
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis


Town lean:
Iconeum
the worst


Null:
Lalendra
Myloninja13
Lovebird
Taly


Scum Lean:
Mathdino
Ausuka
The Janitor
Ircher

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (+72%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general. (I mean, I could probably point out some specifics, but is that really necessary?)
The Worst (+61%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.
Beefster Myloninja13 (-50%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post. After noticing only 3 posts though, I am not as confident in this read.
Lalendra (-50%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635. I don't like their catchup posts (1081 for instance), and I feel that some of their interpretations are out-of-context or unfair.
The Janitor (-56%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good. I don't like the wagon progression on this slot, so that is a plus for The Janitor.

duck, Taly, SIMYK, mutant town and lalendra and lovebird I find scummy. Have concerns with Dino that I voiced. Ircher is also wacky but lovebird and LAL are less active atm. Ausuka light suspicion

Math town. Dave town. Ausuka scum.

I'm not including my own reads, and I'm not including reads on myself. This leaves us with:

I think ircher, simyk, math, tw, dave, taly, and maybe eddie are town.
I think lalendra and lovebird are scum.

The Worst, Math and A50/dave are all town, and I town lean Saske and Eddie.

So. The definitions of "confident" are arbitrary and I can't see what's going on in people's eyes, but this is a rough attempt at a future article I'm going to write on a scumhunting style called holistic scumhunting.

Let's start with town.

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Ausuka
davesaz
Eddie Cane
Myloninja13
Taly

Ahiru-tan
Eddie-kun
Math-sensei
Taly
Ausuka-chan

Town reads on Ircher and Taly.

Math
Mutant
Simyk


ircher, simyk, math, tw, dave, taly, and maybe eddie are town.

The Worst, Math and A50/dave are all town

Math town. Dave town.

duck, Taly, SIMYK, mutant

Saske
The Worst

davesaz
Eddie Cane
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Taly, SIMYK, TW, Eddie Cane, davesaz, mutant (sheeping)

[Ircher]

I can't understand that at all Eddie, but maybe we will get somewhere.

Also, I'm just gonna put this out there, but

if Lovebird reaches L-1, I'm hammering because 1) I want the day to end 2) While I don't have much a read there, I don't think I can read them well, and I think the case laid out there is reasonable enough to warrant lynching 3) There really isn't reason to delay.

So in other words,

@Lovebird

: If you are going to claim, you probably want to do so now.

[Ircher]

1. In 1431:

I didn't like that he was so against setup speccing. It didn't make sense, from a town perspective, to try to shut down any attempt at gamesolving. There's nothing inherently wrong with focusing on other people's reads, unless you are doing so to the exclusion of forming your own, which is what it seemed like he was doing.

Tell me this--how am I supposed to generate reads from something that amounts to null material (such as setup spec...)? And I disagree that setup speccing is gamesolving; some of it may be, but lots of it definitely isn't. I focus on other people's reads because that is, in part, how I generate my own reads. Seriously, you are stretching this beyond what it is; okay, I went a bit overboard with derailing setup spec, but aside from that, the rest of this is honestly a bit of a reach.

I understand your point about the draft, however, it's really important to note that scum are not likely to pick duplicate numbers. You really can use the draft numbers to theorize about alignment because yes, while both alignments are trying to get power roles, scum are the only ones able to make a concerted effort not to step on one another's toes.

Fair enough I guess, but this doesn't tell me anything about your alignment.

Re: your walls - your posts tend to be extremely lengthy and I have a hard time motivating myself to read them as a result. However, the one game I played with you before, you played the same way, so I don't think it's AI for you; it's just how you play.

Also another "fair enough I guess, but this doesn't tell me anything about your alignment".

Yes, I definitely see an associative between Ircher and Ausuka.

In what way?

The explanation of his readslist doesn't really change my thinking, because a) I wasn't really basing my read on that to begin with and b) he still didn't have any strong reads, just nulls and leans. Not a problem in and of itself, but waffly, and not really that different from my original interpretation of a

readslist that is largely useless.

And you can stop right there as that is completely wrong. First of all, lean reads are

by far

not useless. Second of all, this clearly indicates you still don't really understand how my readslist works; it works by confidence level. And yes, the confidence levels I assign are somewhat on the arbitrary side; however, that doesn't mean they convey useless information. In particular, the spoiler on my reads lists tries really hard to explain how this works. Here, I'll break it down for you:

Spoiler: Spoilering this because this is kinda long

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage.

That is the number you see in parenthesis beside each player. If you notice, each category also has something like "(60%-75% Confidence)". This means that if the number beside a player is between 60% and 75%, I will place them in that category.

A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player.

The other thing you need to pay attention to with the confidence ratings is whether they are positive or negative. Positive means town, negative means scum, and 0 means no read. Also note that the reads list is generally ordered by confidence level in decreasing order. In other words, the top reads are my most confident town reads, and the bottom of the list are my most confident scum reads (for the most part). There is one exception to this which brings us to the next part:

Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Now, I already clarified the difference between neutral and null, and hopefully, you understand why the difference exists.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another.

This is perhaps the most important aspect of the confidence ratings. They allow me to indicate the relative strengths of my reads. But at the same time, you must understand that they are estimates and despite the technicalities and complexities that the system suggests, I don't have a precise formula for assigning confidence levels other than as specified in the "How to read this readslist" spoiler that I post with every reads list. Sometimes you might note me place a 1% difference in confidence between two reads (esp. scumreads); this is a generally indicator that I scumread them both relatively the same, but I would lynch the one with a 1% higher confidence first jsut because. On the other hand, a 10% or 20% difference in confidence rating suggests that said reads are a fair ways apart.

In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

This explains why I tend to end up with a lot of "neutral" reads. In order for me to put you in the Leaning Scum or the Leaning Town categories, you generally have to be

consistently

scum or consistently town to me; one or two posts generally don't cut it except in certain early game situations where I feel really confident.

2. In 1435:

The Ircher wagon clearly isn't going anywhere and I'm not a fan of Lovebird's recent posting at all. I agree that either they are bad town, or they're obvscum. Slightly torn because it seems like a too-scummy-to-be-scum situation, but this slot is a liability at the very least. Add to that that this is the only wagon that is currently rivaling mine and it's a no-brainer.

VOTE: Lovebird

Feels like a bus to me.

3. In 1440:

Since I am at L-2, does the group want me to claim, or hold off?

Please go ahead and claim.

4. In 1442:

Did you really need to bribe the worst with your vote to get this information from him? I guarantee you would have got this had you just asked. NGL this feels like a clever way to be on Lalendra's wagon whilst being somewhat against it.

I feel like you are reading into this too much.

5. In 1445:

lalendra scumread is partially based on early uselessness; but what is also suspicious to me is the way she jumped onto the Ircher wagon. she seems to be trying to justify a scumread on Ircher to join that game; specifically the bit where she accuses Ircher of being "weirdly defensive" and comments on how Ircher would prefer Lalendra to be lynched- she seems to be suggesting the latter is a scumtell, which is especially ??? to me. The read doesn't look real. Lalendra and Lovebird are voting each other, but I believe this (distancing from each other and making it look like TvS) is probably the best move if they're scumpartners- I would advise against clearing one of being scum if the other flips scum.

For the record, I was thinking along these same lines actually.

[Ircher]

V/LA Tomorrow

This was unexpected btw.

[Lovebird]

I can't understand that at all Eddie, but maybe we will get somewhere.

Also, I'm just gonna put this out there, but

if Lovebird reaches L-1, I'm hammering because 1) I want the day to end 2) While I don't have much a read there, I don't think I can read them well, and I think the case laid out there is reasonable enough to warrant lynching 3) There really isn't reason to delay.

So in other words,

@Lovebird

: If you are going to claim, you probably want to do so now.

How much effort have you made to try to read me?

[Ircher]

Not much tbh. Basically, your playstyle is incompatible with the way I tend to read people (based on their reads and their reasons for those reads).

[mutantdevle]

Also, I'm just gonna put this out there, but if Lovebird reaches L-1, I'm hammering because 1) I want the day to end 2) While I don't have much a read there, I don't think I can read them well, and I think the case laid out there is reasonable enough to warrant lynching 3) There really isn't reason to delay.

So in other words,

@Lovebird: If you are going to claim, you probably want to do so now.

Can someone remind me again why we haven't insta-lynched Ircher? They just keep vomiting scum...

[mutantdevle]

Not much tbh. Basically, your playstyle is incompatible with the way I tend to read people (based on their reads and their reasons for those reads).

So... you're not going to give Lovebird the proper chance to claim because you don't like their playstyle?

[the worst]

TJEY JEEP VOMIRING LOGIC

MUTANT
EXPLAIN WHY They're scum coming from a sheer analytical logical pov (aka. analyse within scope of playstyle--review Ausuka reads too)