Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[the worst]

right?

[Keyser Söze]

UNVOTE: skitter30

After much meditation, I am willing to accept I may be wrong here. My only interactions with skitter henceforth will be positive as I think I have spent too much time in confirmation bias with her this game.

[the worst]

good

[Nauci]

Irrelephant Write Up

Each section is super long. Tl;Dr at the bottom, "summary" in Conclusions, details and links if you really wanted that much detail, but at that point you should just skim those threads.

This will definitely read like I'm tunneling on Irrelephant, but I'm really not. Even though I have only one game with Irrelephant and I haven't seen his town game, we were very chatty with our innermost thoughts in our shamefully manipulative scum thread. I have the most insight into Irrelephant's play so, unlike most D1s, I have an unusually strong negative feeling about his posts. I still don't have him in my scummiest pile, because a lot of my distrust is from him being able to make pro-town posts as scum.

Tl;Dr Irrelephant is absolutely brilliant and thinks 11 steps ahead of the game and can fake the best of town effort posts, so don't bank on that. He has employed several scum ploys we discussed in our scum pt so I get very bad vibes. His weakness is being rattled under pressure/accusations that hamper his ability to fake aforementioned tryhard posts AND having the "this feels fake" posts challenged for more detail.

Spoiler: Newbie 1863 Scum PT highlights

Well prepared. Read several games before playing, mused about faking a townslip and even a fake claim, and says he'll use a "oh I'm new to this" excuse. Sound familiar?

12 Links the Stop Bussing! article. This turned out to be excellent because I would have been an avid busser otherwise. Mentions that he should not town read partners because of association but also not scumread hard.

Can get very nervous when pressured. (Evidenced in several more posts.)

26 Speculation about trying to shade the most threatening players. Continued theme.

Early town bloc rumination

Irrelephant planned his posts like a game of chess, with much ruminating about potential lynch orders, who would be good to pocket, who is the most threatening, who would be the easier to frame threatening player. He's very keenly aware of associations (something I almost never paid attention to until playing that game), both in other players and his own optics. He's also keenly aware of the advantages of being strategically inactive and mentions it several times.

Doing my best to keep multiple people in the scumlight, while not looking mislynch-happy. Hard to balance...

Side note, I did somewhat aggressively push one of the players initially (because it's exactly what town me would have done), and then had trouble faking it when I realized he was 100% a TPR. So I guess we'll call that one NAI (I've run up D1 wagons on Mathblade and Thor and Lord Gurgi etc. etc. as town).

89 He came up with the entirely dastardly and dumb-risky superevil move where we skipped the first NK which ended up framing Thor hahaha. Good times bud.

N1/D2 is largely setup/no kill speculation/debating fake claiming

There's a lot of intense speculation on how to frame a town player while not looking bad. He begins to make really tryhard posts postulating stuff like player X seems plausible with any other person as scum while ruling out other associations.

D3 Irrelephant posting goes from precocious to pretty aggressive, even chainsawing at times and works hard to keep brass from being lynched.

Spoiler: Newbie 1863 Thread Notes

Irrelephant ISO

Irrelephant is a pretty pro-town scum. Lots of great questions like in #64 and observatios phrased as questions. I say this because I think that I usually TR people for this level of effort/content/scum hunting, but that is absolutely not a safe thing to feel when it comes to Irrelephant. Also lots of shade-throwing or smokescreening hypotheticals and back-and-forth wavering, like in #64 or #69 or #108.

I take back the credit I gave earlier for those "good point" posts because of stuff like this.

Irrelephant does a very good job of keeping most players open as lynch options, and spends a ton of time on tryhard setup speculation posts that look extremely effortful and towny. Day 3 MYLO he got very aggressive about pushing various people and wrote up a ton of smart sounding stuff about association speculation (that made it much easier to make even previous town reads plausible mislynches), and chainsaws quite a bit. He constantly posts "paranoid" thoughts that sow seeds of doubt or shade without any sort of hard commitment, which may not be alignment indicative but certainly works in scum!relephant's favor if so.

Totally brilliant Day 3 that nearly got the tracker killed even when he outright crumbed his track target by spelling it out in this post.

Spoiler: Irrelephant Posts In This Game

Points against Irrelephant, either because they are independently suspicious or similar to tactics mentioned above:

• super early hypothetical scum pools (111)
  
• questioning if a player's post arc was genuine (205, 421) as a reason for suspicion that's deceptive because he's literally saying someone is scummy for sounding town but only qualified as far as "feels too good to be true"
  
• shades another strong/active player for a less than stellar reason (412)
  
• backs off on Keyser as soon as he's called out for a weak case in order to shade another one of the active/threatening players (423)
  
• withdraws town reads on players in the same breath as making them and also retcons a post as "for the SPICE" (473)
  
• non-commital shading "I don't actually know if that's because she's scum" while saying that he made a case on her already even though half of the case was about not having enough content which was debunked shortly afterwards (468)
  
• more "feels off" type shade (488)
  
• 494 and 503 read like joking-not-joking about buddying/pocketing/blocking
  
• I feel bad vibes about the defensive posting like 619 628 650. He acknowledges that those posts were bad, but continuously gets defensive when it is brought up as a data point against him. It's like admitting to a murder but protesting that every time someone brings up "irrelephant is bad because he murdered that dude" with "UGH WE'RE JUST GOING IN CIRCLES." I mean it's not like the situation has been rectified, and continued posts are just desperately trying to claw back into our good graces?
  
• In the same vein, 697 HA YOU SAID I'M GOOD AT SCUM SO WHY WOULD MY SCUMMY POSTING BE SCUMMY? is a nervous defensive response. Also more "fake" feels accusations. I *did* find the sloppy posts strange, but still felt that the things that made me uncomfortable outweighed that hesitation.
  
• Town/scumslip stuff is top of Scumrrelephant's playbook IMO (I mean, I helped teach some of it) so 707 is totally lacking value in my eyes. I also think that sloppy play does NOT equate lack of concern for how he comes across. I think it's quite the opposite: that because he's under pressure instead of universally town read this time, he's fumbling due to trying to stay on people's good sides and not get caught out. Wait was 729 serious because why would you be so bothered by pressure if you're innocent ((this bit is joking and I'm aware I sound like WE HAVE FOUND A WITCH, MAY WE BURN HIM)
  
• After 516 and 697 I'm disappointed that all we got was 752 and 758 saying he doesn't actually really know

Spoiler: Conclusions:

A lot of it is circumstantial, like what feels like an unsubstantiated town read on momrangal, while continuously trying to push poorly justified shade on several of our most active players (skitter, keyser, bernie, and I) even when he's made several "oh this thing X did was pretty towny" concessions about all 4 of us. There are strategies he frequently employed to keep options open (shade qualified with "paranoia," early <scum is in this large group of people> posts, and associations hunting) but those could just be general Irrelephant posting style so I don't put as much faith in that. The stuff that most pinged me was usage of things he explicitly plotted in our scum thread about (pocketing people, trying to get in an early town block, actively deciding which viable mislynch would be the most advantageous and pursuing it, or taking advantage of existing suspicion the way Stun accused Skitter of in 284.

When I lavish praise, I mean that Irrelephant's play is unbelievably prepared (reading many games and the wiki as preparation and strategizing), intelligent, methodical, and planned out 11 chess moves ahead (see scum thread). He's extremely capable of tryhard posting (see day 3 posts in newbie 1863), and super nice and polite which tugs at our heartstrings. Those are things we usually town read people for easily, and here is not one of those times we can do so. I initially was just planning to warn everyone not to trust him because he truly is a brilliant player, but the more notes I wrote the more I realized I actively felt scum vibes.

I think irrelephant's weakness is the eagerness to please and desire to do well, so being FOSed really, really rattles him and decreases his ability to make those confident posts which he was able to comfortably do from a position of most town read player in the game, who probably held 1/2 the authority of everyone alive.

[Nauci]

Ugh Nauci you’re sounding towny sometimes but you keep calling for my lynch and it doesn’t feel like you actually think I’m scum you just want me lynched and I want us both to be town but we’re never gonna be able to work together if we are, are we

I highly doubt this is something scum would say to someone they are scum reading/trying to lynch.

I also disagree and alot of her posts have alot of words and doesn't seem to really do anything or take much of a stance even when she kinda does. Though it is very stream of consciousness so

Holy mother of god that was ~1600 words what the hell am I even doing with my life

I was going to follow up w/ a write up on The Worst and then ISO analysis on momrangal/invis but it's almost 2 AM and I forgot to eat dinner so in the words of SimplyNailogical:

I'll see y'all later bai!

[Nauci]

Oops accidental quote

[Keyser Söze]

No I felt like we’d reasonably narrowed the pool to five players that had a high chance of flipping red. I also felt confident that Shoshin is town and in our last game she was pretty good at discerning things

I think I misunderstood the whole ‘sheep me and Shoshin’ post then.

I don’t think you actually shared the same scum reads as Shoshin (bar your mutual dislike of Nauci, and as expressed by your latest reads list). However, even if you t/read Shoshin hard: that doesn’t mean her reads are going to be any more accurate. So I feel that ‘sheep Me and Shoshin’ invitation was disingenuous (or unnecessary).

[brassherald]

In the event that this search takes too long, you will always get at least 48 hours after a replacement is found for the day to end

[Keyser Söze]

don't give me that phoney AtE crap. if you think it's fake tell me why you think it's fake. the fact you're trying to call me out on a personality thing when you don't know me is g r o s s

but also most of the player list just feels totally resigned with my lunch. like if I was revealed as IC where would people even go?

You still sound like you’re in defence-mode, not scum-hunting mode

‘

The best defense is a good offense

’ - Kevin Spacey

[brassherald]

"Lost time is never found again."

Votecount 1.10

Nauci(4)

~ Shoshin(112), Irrelephant11(62), Momrangal(36), the worst(99)

Irrelephant11(2)

~ Nauci(48), skitter30(81)

Gamma Emerald(2)

~ Mathdino(58), Bernie Sanders(104)

the worst(1)

~ Invisibility(31)

Momrangal(1)

~ northsidegal(5)


Not Voting (3): stungun0404(41), Keyser Söze(109), Gamma Emerald(45)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-02 17:10:00)or 48 hours after replacements are found.

MOD REMINDERS

Looking for replacements for NSG and stungun

[Keyser Söze]

Nauci is not feeling like town!Nauci.

What is "town!Nauci"?

[the worst]

don't give me that phoney AtE crap. if you think it's fake tell me why you think it's fake. the fact you're trying to call me out on a personality thing when you don't know me is g r o s s

but also most of the player list just feels totally resigned with my lunch. like if I was revealed as IC where would people even go?

You still sound like you’re in defence-mode, not scum-hunting mode

‘

The best defense is a good offense

’ - Kevin Spacey

and?

[the worst]

Nauci is not feeling like town!Nauci.

What is "town!Nauci"?

= "Nauci when she's town"

[Keyser Söze]

and?

I want you to 'rock my world'.

Nauci is not feeling like town!Nauci.

What is "town!Nauci"?

= "Nauci when she's town"

What is "town!Nauci"?

[Irrelephant11]

Same


Alright bishes I'm here to play, if Nauci wants me dead this bad the least I can do is make sure my death takes some red flips down with me (whether I'm lynched or NK'd you know what I mean)
Watch me PoE all y'all scum bishes out the game

[Irrelephant11]

No I felt like we’d reasonably narrowed the pool to five players that had a high chance of flipping red. I also felt confident that Shoshin is town and in our last game she was pretty good at discerning things

I think I misunderstood the whole ‘sheep me and Shoshin’ post then.

I don’t think you actually shared the same scum reads as Shoshin (bar your mutual dislike of Nauci, and as expressed by your latest reads list). However, even if you t/read Shoshin hard: that doesn’t mean her reads are going to be any more accurate. So I feel that ‘sheep Me and Shoshin’ invitation was disingenuous (or unnecessary).

Also my response to this is I was sheeping Shosh on the worst, agreed on nauci & skitter, and also agreed on gamma/nsg as not-very-town-either. So basically I couldn't read the worst very well but thought the rest of her list made sense

also my colorful "sheep us" post was only like 80% serious, I'm learning having too much fun gets me scumread my b

[Shoshin]

Nauci, your case boils down to, "Irrelephant did X as scum, he's doing X here, therefore he's scum." It's not a very strong argument.

[Shoshin]

Irrelephant, thoughts on lynching Stun?

[Irrelephant11]

still need your thoughts on skitter town

[Shoshin]

still need your thoughts on skitter town

Her progression on me is really town. I don't think scum her puts me as her strongest townread after our interaction.

[Irrelephant11]

Alright bishes I'm here to play, if Nauci wants me dead this bad the least I can do is make sure my death takes some red flips down with me (whether I'm lynched or NK'd you know what I mean)
Watch me PoE all y'all scum bishes out the game

this is by end of workday btw just so I don't get "where's that thing you promised" every couple hours it's something I'm working on in between real life things

[Shoshin]

Nauci, do you think Irrelephant makes this post -

do you often ignore questions? It's very hard getting you to answer things directed straight at you)

I will vouch for the fact that this is true of town Shoshin, and is part of why I'm having an easier time townreading her than most players

- as scum? Why not let Skitter's paranoia fester?

[Gamma Emerald]

alright cool

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we're buddies and we figured it out

Brother, what did you want us to Sheep you and Shoshin with?

Only Nauci=scum?

What had you ‘figured out’ so confidently?

bruh
I might have actually had something when I did my meme

[skitter30]

I think this is a very bad faith post. I remember several people commenting on the worst's posting, I specifically wrote about him and my experiences/read of his meta (I don't think I even commented on his predecessor), and BS wrote a whole meta schpiel about his play. I can't tell if you're selectively reading or deliberately misrepping.

i'm toying with the idea that she may be wk'ing a mislynch

i'm pretty confident that they aren't svs tho

--

No I felt like we’d reasonably narrowed the pool to five players that had a high chance of flipping red. I also felt confident that Shoshin is town and in our last game she was pretty good at discerning things

I think I misunderstood the whole ‘sheep me and Shoshin’ post then.

I don’t think you actually shared the same scum reads as Shoshin (bar your mutual dislike of Nauci, and as expressed by your latest reads list). However, even if you t/read Shoshin hard: that doesn’t mean her reads are going to be any more accurate. So I feel that ‘sheep Me and Shoshin’ invitation was disingenuous (or unnecessary).

i'm pretty sure that post was a meme

i think it also may have been an attempt to buddy shoshin

--

Nauci, do you think Irrelephant makes this post -

do you often ignore questions? It's very hard getting you to answer things directed straight at you)

I will vouch for the fact that this is true of town Shoshin, and is part of why I'm having an easier time townreading her than most players

- as scum? Why not let Skitter's paranoia fester?

i mean, my paranoia is festering just fine; he doesn't really need to help it along lol.

i think at that point he wasn't super interested in my opinion of him or you (this is before i called him out for his vote on me i think, or at least that became a thing and he was under suspicion), but was more concerned about what *you* thought of him. like i don't think i'm the target/audience of that post; you are.

[Gamma Emerald]

I am kinda excited to play with invisibility fwiw

Why?

Because he posts a lot in GIM, one of the few topics I pretty much always follow