NY214: Project Pinecone (Game over! Town wins!)

[Chickadee]

I'm ok with lynching Elbirn if that's where the group is going. I had a good town read on Elbirn, but with the Dram flip, I'm accepting that my reads this game are not on point.

I also really like the profii wagon. I would def go there.

[Andrius]

Andrius+MoI.

Trust me if this were the case I'd have died laughing the minute I got my role pm.
Because THINGS: THE ENCORE.

I've still yet to read since day start and I dont think I'm ever going to have time for this. I'm sorry. I despise being a flake but the game will be healthier without me at this point

@Pine: please replace me

Searching for a replacement. If you have someone who would like to play in this game, PM me with their name and I'll go recruiting.

dramonic ;_;

[Inferno390]

Lol no

[Taly]

Inferno

can you please elaborate on your scumread over

MOI

and

Andrius

because I really don't think the whole "

this scumpair"

OR

"this scumpair"

is an effective approach to the game.

I'm honestly still holding out until a new person comes into the

Elbirn

slot, I'm pretty agitated with the replace out, but I don't blame

Elbirn

as a person for it. I just think replacing out when heavily scumread is a very, very pro-scum thing to do.

This is a big reinforcement on why I think you're jumping on pushes for a lynch agenda rather than gamesolving.

[Taly]

I'm ok with lynching Elbirn if that's where the group is going. I had a good town read on Elbirn, but with the Dram flip, I'm accepting that my reads this game are not on point.

I also really like the profii wagon. I would def go there.

Minimizing your own reads because you were wrong once is ALSO not an effective approach to the game for town.

[Skygazer]

This is a big reinforcement on why I think you're jumping on pushes for a lynch agenda rather than gamesolving.

I can meme and gamesolve. What are your thoughts about my case on profii?

Follow up: if Elbirn and I were to both flip town, who's scum?

[Taly]

This is a big reinforcement on why I think you're jumping on pushes for a lynch agenda rather than gamesolving.

I can meme and gamesolve. What are your thoughts about my case on profii?

OK I'll dive into this

VOTE: profii

i like this counterwagon

don't like how profii continuously throws shade at me and taly yet is so ready to jump on to the elbirn wagon and place it at L-1, especially considering how he's showing doubts about elbirn

I can see where

profii

is associated with

Elbirn

due to his odd progression onto the wagon followed by the questioning, but I'm not too keen that scum would really ask much questions or gauge the point of someone's push on a wagon when the lynch was about to happen.

I don't see a straightforward reason to think

profii's

motives for posting were scum, at least not without an answer from mine and

Rask's

questions, which he hasn't responded to yet.

I also feel like

profii

was a perfect counterwagon to

Elbirn

already, since nobody was sure he was town and multiple people were already doubting his posts, so pushing him felt a bit lynchbaity imo.

like, it's possible he knows that elbirn is going to flip town so he's flip flopping and throwing shade at taly and myself to set up future mislynches in the event of an elbirn town flip

I mean, weren't you doing this with these statements?

I can believe that the xyzzy wagon was a counterwagon; I already said there's likely scum on it before and with HitAlt/Chickadee as townreads now I can see Elbirn as scum
xyzzy still likely town esp if elbirn is scum

I can see HWS as scum through PoE

also yall are posting too much

If I had to pick between Ausuka/MoI I'd actually pick MoI as scum at this point.

1760 - The post calling

TW

an SK

okay i'd like to lynch profii tomorrow regardless of the elbirn flip

You put up a lot of possibilities on who could be scum following your vote on

Elbirn

without a lot of justification or push to a concrete conclusion.

And what makes you think

profii

that

knows

Elbirn

could be town? I thought you were strong on

Elbirn

being scum.

What eliminates the possibility of

Profii-Elbirn

being scum-scum?

Which is what I think contradicts your 1943, where you say

profii-Elbirn

are BOTH scum, but it's clear that you still think

TW

is SK but you want to TELL him he should shoot

Elbirn

tonight. 1935, knowing that

TW

is keeping his cards close right now and leashing him won't be a productive way of figuring out his alignment here.

So it just feels like you're pushing away from the

Elbirn

being scum/lynch, but you still want him flipped?

Follow up: if Elbirn and I were to both flip town, who's scum?

Well first off, if you're both town, I'd throw my hands in the air and hope I'm NKed because I'm going to be floored with town's performance this game.

I don't know who I'd think were scum then, tbh. I think it's extremely likely one of you are scum, and I can't accurately assess who WOULD be scum upon seeing your townflips unless I saw the following NKs and role results to help give me direction.

If you're both town, then I'd probably just lynch

TW

to avoid more kills that can endgame town, and because there's a part of me that thinks he could be SK. But I'm not solid on this.

[HitAlt]

I'm sorry guys, life has been hectic again..
I'll REALLY try to catch-up within a day or so. Probably tomorrow night as I have a day off wednesday.

[profii]

profii

can you walk me through your thinking on your

Elbirn to L-1

vote?

Because your posts heavily imply that you haven't read my ISO assessments in depth.

Yet you seem completely fine with the

Elbirn

under the pretense of what

I

have to say about it.

Somethzing fishy is going on with the wagon. It’s weird that no one else gets a look in by the time a player gets that close to L-1

Bearing in mind your slot was heavily scum read then replaced out and you are the main wagon driver - I have paranoia

Then day 2 a LOT of PRs seem to be knocking about scum probably don’t know where they can push safely or not

So maybe Elbirn is scared scum who has just gone awol since their kill failed and they lost a dude and a load of PRs surfaced - though they did lose a PR so I guess they have some too

So your case fits, tbh it’s borderline insulting and misrepresentative to say I’ve not read your case - tell me why, if we are reading exactly the same words you are expecting me to come to different conclusions? I feel like you are shading me a bit unfairly there


Anyway - it’s a bit of a tricky spot, I think I’ve said before in games I get that feeling in poker where you just call the bet to see what the other dude is holding - so basically feels like a info lynch with a decent chance of hitting scum, failing it hitting scum, I’d guess you look pretty bad for driving it so maybe TW can shoot you in the night which is kinda a worthy trade



My sort of feeling on day 2 is not a great deal has happened because this wagon nearly clicked so fast, therefore our main events are all the PR reveals and then a little CW on me. I guess that makes Elbirn more likely scum if they don’t want to be on that bus

Also you get more excited about l-1 than me

[Skygazer]

Taly if you want someone that's not even trying to gamesolve then just look at the above profii post.

[Ausuka]

the worst, Inferno390, Skygazer- possible scum votes on profii wagon.

Off to a strong start here. I really wanna kill profii or Elbirn now.

VOTE: profii

FYI, I’m still for Elbirn. This is just to prevent stupidity and to push some pressure in Profii’s direction.

Okay yeah after reading up just now I can see profii as scum and profii makes sense as an Elbirn partner too. I can do iso's if anyone wants but here are some general points I've noticed while phoneposting:

He seems hyperfocused on analyzing the Rask wagon and doesn't seem to want to do much scum hunting beyond that. He continuously throws shade at me during D1 but avoids voting (early on possibly to avoid being read as opportunistic after HitAlt pointed out his honey pot and later on probably because my wagon had no momentum anymore). I would argue that myself and flubber (now that he's flipped town) were very safe scumreads to have in this game. He also keeps throwing shade at Gustavo/Taly, another safe scum read to have at that point and possibly a good candidate for a mislynch as well assuming my read on Taly is correct. He throws a tiny bit of shade at dram but never pushes hard and never even comments on the claim either, so that's sus. Then there's his vote on the xyzzy wagon that comes out of nowhere, basically jumping ship from flubber to a different wagon (also a likely mislynch) with little reasoning beyond momentum.

As others have pointed out there's also a ton of information instead of analysis. It's also interesting to note that he really doesn't talk about Elbirn at all or dram until the wagon forms.

When Elbirn flips scum we'll have two scum down so I'm fine with being a mislynch after that tbh especially if it keeps me away from lylo situations. After that though, please consider looking at profii.

hot take: we lynch profii and let tw kill elbirn or vice versa

[profii]

I’ll look over this at work assuming a hammer doesn’t come along

To be fair looks legit enough, I just want to look carefully at if some of that is actually AI - eg activity - are we playing lynch all lurkers here? Etc

I mean the implication, if I'm reading right, and I think I am, is you haven't yet read the case at this point.
Is this right? Did you skim?
If you aren't sure about the case, and you aren't sure about the wagonomics or how fast it formed and no CW and such, then what made you comfortable or give you confidence in elbirnscum to begin with
Because you say like you want the lynch fairly quick too and no CW either

I'm not trying to make you look bad or "get you", I really have trouble understanding any of this thought process
please clarify if you can

I don’t think given the player list that scum are going to lol hammer especially given the amount of big font Taly keeps using

So I don’t think L-1 is that big a deal to begin with, maybe if someone said intent sure but the reaction was a CW on me

If we don’t legit push the wagon then people are just going to assume it’s not doing anything - people get scared and do stuff at l-1

Also there is a great chance of scum in {Elbirn, Taly} so let’s poke in there

[profii]

Taly if you want someone that's not even trying to gamesolve then just look at the above profii post.

How is saying let’s find the scum in {Taly / Elbirn} not game solving - that gets us 2 scum out the game, let’s hypothetically say TW does us the favour tonight we would have 12 players to find the rest

Given the amount of PR floating around, tomorrow becomes easier and clearer. Do we need to sort every slot rn?

[brassherald]

Tell me why there is a great chance of scum in {Taly/Elbirn} in 3 sentences or less, then give me which one you suspect more, profii.

I want to get a succinct statement.

[Inferno390]

Gonna slap Ausuka for her scumlist on the Elbirn wagon.

@Taly, will summarize my read on MoI and Andrius when I get to a computer, it’s too much to do on mobile.

[Skygazer]

You put up a lot of possibilities on who could be scum following your vote on

Elbirn

without a lot of justification or push to a concrete conclusion.

Let me clarify: I'm sus at profii throwing shade at people on the Elbirn wagon yet still going along with it. My weak reads aren't inconsistent with my vote on Elbirn.

And what makes you think

profii

that

knows

Elbirn

could be town? I thought you were strong on

Elbirn

being scum.

What eliminates the possibility of

Profii-Elbirn

being scum-scum?

Which is what I think contradicts your 1943, where you say

profii-Elbirn

are BOTH scum, but it's clear that you still think

TW

is SK but you want to TELL him he should shoot

Elbirn

tonight. 1935, knowing that

TW

is keeping his cards close right now and leashing him won't be a productive way of figuring out his alignment here.

So it just feels like you're pushing away from the

Elbirn

being scum/lynch, but you still want him flipped?

I'm just saying that scum-profii/scum-elbirn and scum-profii/town-elbirn both make sense. His vote on Elbirn could be read as bussing or as opportunistic imo. I'm not pushing away from Elbirn necessarily, I would gladly go back to that vote (as you can see in my vice-versa post regarding TW's kill). I'm not sure how directing TW's kill is anti-town, other players have touched upon leashing the serial killer before and if he's vig he's likely going to shoot for scum anyways and if he's serial killer he's likely going to make shots that make him look like a vig so I don't get your point.

[Chickadee]

I'm ok with lynching Elbirn if that's where the group is going. I had a good town read on Elbirn, but with the Dram flip, I'm accepting that my reads this game are not on point.

I also really like the profii wagon. I would def go there.

Minimizing your own reads because you were wrong once is ALSO not an effective approach to the game for town.

That's fair. However, historically, I feel I've either been really with it, or really not with it. And my grasp on this game is not good, because it's moving too fast for me. So I largely do not trust most of my reads.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First up a quick state of the game analysis. BTW over 20 pages in 3 days is stupid and those of you spamming single liners make this game impossible to keep up with. Whatever has been said at least Taly is posting significant content with his many, many posts.

PoE is going to be a powerful tool going forward. I’m going to sort the playerlist into pools based on where my head is at based on the Day 1 and how claims have flowed.

LockTown

– I will not question these ever. This is where I go based on my Role PM but no-one (including me) cares since everyone says that.

Andrius – N1 means he cannot be scum or Serial Killer. No ifs and or buts for me. You want to fight me on this be my guest but I will fight you to the death if you make any move to lynch Andy.

Chickadee – Simply due to Andy’s statements. I know him well enough he is not going to do something stupid related to his role and declare her Town on a mistaken basis.

Solid Town

– Between claims and play Day 1 I have enough faith these players are Town I’d fight a wagon on them today and for at least a few days going forward at worst.

Rask – I do not believe he’s cleared by Aus (more on that later) but his Day 1 was enough that I see that Rask is pretty Town for me. Moves to LockTown if Aus is ever cleared.

Brass – While early on today I thought his pre-emptive Active BP claim was SK panic now that theWorst has owned up to the Dram shot I think he’s clear of being the potential Serial Killer. Still an outside chance he could be Scum looking to explain away the missing kill but between HitAlt / myself / whatever other means we have I think he will get cleared before that becomes a long term issue. Potentially a valuable clear for the WIFOM he could generate for Scum / SK with an Activated BP as a deterant for a Nightkill. His play surrounding Dram does not look like a bus to me.

HitAlt – Again the Detective claim and his interaction with theWorst says he’s very likely what he claims. Doesn’t 100% clear him but with Ausuka my best guess for the slot of Scum Investigation I’d certainly not put him in the spotlight or several days. Now if he’s alive Day 6 and keeps coming up with no results and no scum investigation role has flipped he’d be worth discussing. But that’s a ways off.

Probably Town

–

Taly – I have some reservations about Day 1 “no-one is working with me” narrative but that may be chocked up to playstyle. I feel good enough with the nature of his posting that if he is scum he’ll be outed eventually by his ISO. And while hyper-activity is not necessarily Pro-Town there is enough readable content in his ISO I’d not lynch there anytime soon.

Inferno – I think the likelihood he bussed Dram is pretty low (although not as low as Brass). I think likely his whole need to call everyone who disagrees with him scum and his “I’m an IC” boasting today is probably bad play but if it gets to endgame with no obvious suspects in sight I think this would be a prime place to hang. Also want to add his claim is not alignment indicative. It might come in handy later on when it might be possible to prove he visited someone who wasn’t the nightkill but otherwise is a big fat Meh.

Needs to Die Sooner or Later

Ausuka – I’m pretty sure she’s a scum Fruit Vendor of some sort. As such I don’t clear Rask at all on the claim. Especially given the other amount of apparent Town clearing mechanics (my role / HitAlt / what Andy has going) and the fact that I’m limited but she’s not. Her Dayplay also could certainly be from scum. I personally don't see the process by which she chose Rask but I can't say it is scummy either.

Likely Serial Killer but I really Don’t Care

TheWorst – Sorry Duckling but I know you are 98% likely to not be Town. The presence of a Detective (even a scum one) is a nod to the likely existences of an SK. The Dram shot is a very strong indicator that he’s not a Vig – given no other claims Day 1 a Serial Killer has an overwhelming need to take out a Jailkeeper regardless of the JK's alignment before the SK can be blocked from making kills. Add in his Day 1 cagey play and his response to my “You are a SK again” early game banter and I’m sure that’s the case. And his posts since HitAlt outed him along the lines of “I’m going to kill everyone who suspects me” / “I might as well be a IC” are straight out of Ducklings SK playbook from Echo Bay Grits where he kept trying to frame the discussion around him being a BP meant he was obv Town. And 1885 is a textbook example of communicating to the scum team where to shoot as the PoE noose is already getting tight and he can’t have duplication with scum on his kills. Worst was originally my N1 vend which I heavily leaned on with my “he’ll be sorted Day 2” language but Andy had me questioning enough that I thought it better to Townbin or damn Andy earlier.

And I don’t really care. He’s already lost. He’s been outed and can’t make questionable kills into claimed Town roles. Two kills in a Night and both are very pro-scum? He eats rope? 3 or 4 scum dead and game isn’t over? He eats rope. Frankly you just lynch him the Day before expected LYLO even if you think he is 99.9995% Vig. That’s well down the line and if he’s a Vig he’ll be dead well before that. So no point in discussing it other than having Duckling claim his shot every Night in the opening post the next morning.

Who is left?

Elbirn, Sky, Xyzzy, HeWho, and Profii.

Just on Day 1play I’d be least inclinded to lynch Elbirn and then probably Xyzzy. I have not read through Taly’s cases in depth so until I get the chance (upcoming post).

Frankly I think if you carpet bombed / cleared this section and lynched Ausuka and then theWorst when the game isn’t over with Aus’s hanging you’d have a victory. Given that I think the Worst pretty much has to shoot in this pool or be hung that’s very feasible.

Now onto “current events” …

[Andrius]

Seeing Magna post is like when you've been waiting for your date to show up and they show up and you remember what joy is when you see their face.

Otherwise will be quiet and wait.

[the worst]

TheWorst – Sorry Duckling but I know you are 98% likely to not be Town.

hold onto that 2% my dude. I live to surprise.

[the worst]

Let's not assume one MUST be scum from claims alone.
Just as we must not assume they both MUST be town from claims alone.

We'll know them by their fruits.
Pun intended. ...I'll leave now.

this is a great post

[Raskolnikov]

Carpet bombing's always fun.
If you think TW is probably SK do you think the odds of one of brass or hit being scum BP or scum detective are possibly worth consideration?

[Raskolnikov]

“I’m going to kill everyone who suspects me”

I mean, you gotta respect that in a person

[Raskolnikov]

Tell me why there is a great chance of scum in {Taly/Elbirn} in 3 sentences or less, then give me which one you suspect more, profii.

I want to get a succinct statement.

Strong echo this
Profii you're talking about literally everything except for why you think slots are themselves likely scum or town

[Chickadee]

Even if TW is a SK, Lynching third parties at the moment does not excite me. Group scum first, then if the game is going, third parties. Let scum take care of TW, because so far if he is a SK, he's shown a wanting to shoot in scum.

So I think we should stop focusing so much on the TW thing (not a comment of MOI's assessment...just happens to follow it). Anyone going hard after TW I will take as a scum claim.

MOI - I'm right there with you if anyone tries to lynch Andrius.







Again guys, I'm so sorry for being out of touch with this game. The bulk of my understanding is coming from Taly/MOI/Andrius posts. At the moment, I would sheep anything Andrius and MOI do/say. They're both solid town for me, and in all of my wavering and reassessment, those have been constant, so I'm choosing to trust those reads above anything right now.

@_@