Transformers Mafia - Dinobots STRONGEST!

[stungun0404]

wow we really want scum to win

Would you rather we do neither then?

i think what he’s implying is that town is making bad mistakes - which would imply he has a townread on porkens, but i’m not sure why.

[the worst]

sorry I'm confused

[Creature]

wow we really want scum to win

Would you rather we do neither then?

i think what he’s implying is that town is making bad mistakes - which would imply he has a townread on porkens, but i’m not sure why.

Yeah, initially thought he was saying that to the Porkens wagon specifically.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

yes

I have stated my preference
voted neither
and explained why I voted neither

find a better slot to shade buddy

unironically voting neither after I explained why we don't.

We kill this guy tomorrow.

[MariaR]

Prof fueling fire from the sidelines is scummy and needs to die.

[MariaR]

I also assumed multiball tbh

[MariaR]

Keeping my vote on neither for obv reason meh what a weak catch up

[stungun0404]

it seems to me now like the people voting neither (specifically the worst and maria) are pinning their hopes on a multiball setup, which is inherently a dangerous mindset, and a bad reasoning for voting such given the information we have. let’s not jump to any conclusion till their some semblance of proof, here. i think that’s the better way to play

[stungun0404]

there’s some semblance of proof

[stungun0404]

it’s completely possible there’s a town day or night vig, one single scum team, and some sk’s/indie roles. why conclude multiball?

[MariaR]

I'm not voting neither because of multiball. I'm voting neither because I don't townread either player. Multiball has nothing to do with my vote
I assumed scum submit a day action for a kill and it happened after the flip.

[stungun0404]

I'm not voting neither because of multiball. I'm voting neither because I don't townread either player. Multiball has nothing to do with my vote
I assumed scum submit a day action for a kill and it happened after the flip.

ok, that’s a fairer argument. but my reasoning against the worst in specific holds at this moment (for he stated porkens could be town).

that “scum submitting a day action for a kill” is countered if there’s one scum team and an indie for all we know, or a town night vig along with a scum team —> fate in particular seems like a reasonable enough player for a town member to kill, imo, given that i don’t remember anything from their content (apparently just 4 posts in the thread —> why is it an antitown kill?).

[stungun0404]

i’d rather believe dgb was an antitown kill than i do that fate was an antitown kill

[the worst]

yes

I have stated my preference
voted neither
and explained why I voted neither

find a better slot to shade buddy

unironically voting neither after I explained why we don't.

We kill this guy tomorrow.

bring it as long as you die too

[Fundamental Theorem]

OK, i’m townreading Lady Lambdadelta, to be upheld in the instance that this is positively confirmed to not be a scum vs. scum duel —> which i very highly doubt would be the case this early on when thinking about it. just like the last vote, would be extremely risky for scum to duel scum this early i think. the only motive i could foresee is if it gives them a power that seriously advances their wincon.

purely on a gameplay level, porkens does not seem like town to me at this moment —> i think he’s scum. reason is i don’t feel town reaches for the duel this early in the day phase after seeing the result of the last duel, even if they’re relatively inattentive. porkens can’t claim to being inattentive though, given that he was still responding to posts in what was basically the rvs area of this thread (posts 1-150) when he pulled the duel card out, yet he supposedly “knows” he can duel now? and apparently he voted neither dueler to win the last duel. so why is he suddenly wanting to win this duel, but he was against either winning the last duel. like, really?

Everyone is forgetting a crucial point: this game is almost guaranteed to be multi ball or have an SK at least. Neither Fate nor Radiant really sound like vig kills to me.

That means scum may duel scum without realizing it. (It’s still unlikely, but the probability is definitely >0.)

[stungun0404]

@fundamental theorem: i understand rc as being a scum kill, i agree on that matter. however, what leads you to believe that fate was a scum kill choice? is fate a good townplayer?

[stungun0404]

regardless of the alignment that actually performed the kill, it is a rather curious choice imo.

[Fundamental Theorem]

@fundamental theorem: i understand rc as being a scum kill, i agree on that matter. however, what leads you to believe that fate was a scum kill choice? is fate a good townplayer?

At the very least, I know they have quite the reputation on the site, and I honestly don't see why a vigilante would kill Fate. There are better vig targets than that.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Okay, let's think about the duel mechanic's EV then.

Let's assume that this game is multiball (which may not be a reasonable), and there are 4 scum on each team. We also have 5 dead town players so far out of a total of 28 players.

That means we are looking at 15-4-4 right now.

The probability that a town player duels scum is thus equal to (8 / 22) ~ 0.3636.
The probability that a player is town is equal to 15 / 23 ~ 0.6522.
Thus, the probability that a player is town AND that they dueled scum is (8 / 22) * (15 / 23) ~ 0.2372.

The probability that a scum A player duels a scum B player is (4 / 19) ~ 0.2105.
The probability that a player is scum A is equal to 4 / 23 ~ 0.1739.
Thus, the probability that a player is scum A AND that they dueled scum B is (4 / 19) * (4 / 23) ~ 0.0366. (This is also the probability that a player is scum B AND that they dueled scum A if they chose randomly.)

What's the probability that both are scum? It is simply 2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19) ~ 0.0732.
What's the probability that both are town? It is simply (15 / 23) * (14 / 22) ~ 0.4150.
What's the probability that exactly one is scum? It is simply 1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)) ~ 0.5118.

What's the probability at least one is scum? It is simply 1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) ~ 0.5850.
-----
If town never votes for neither, what's the EV for town today? Let's say there is a 50% chance that we let Porkens win and a 50% chance that we let Antihero win (for EV purposes).

It does not matter because they are both scum : 2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19) ~ 0.0732.
It does not matter because they are both town : (15 / 23) * (14 / 22) ~ 0.4150.
We select town if one is scum and one is town : (1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19))) ~ 0.2559.
We select scum if one is scum and one is town : (1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19))) ~ 0.2559.

Probability that we select a town winner : ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) + ((1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)))) ~ 0.6709.
Probability that we select a scum winner : (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)) + ((1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)))) ~ 0.4882.
-----
If we always vote for neither, the probability we kill scum today is the same as the probability that at least one is scum: 1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) ~ 0.5850.
-----
Interpret this as you will.

[the worst]

re 1168

literally marry me post-game
this is what I've been trying to say

[Fundamental Theorem]

(Like, if I was a vig that was going to shoot a lurker, I'd be shooting someone like Vecna, Prof Fridays, or Princess Celestia who have no idea about their skill and who have been useless so far in the game.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

re 1168

literally marry me post-game
this is what I've been trying to say

I would like to note that I left it at an "Interpret it as you will" for multiple reasons: 1) I'm assuming this multiball (though it's semi-reasonable) 2) I'm assuming there are 4 scum on each team (which may not be reasonable... I wouldn't know) 3) Doing "Neither" does have the disadvantage of having a very high probability of lynching at least one town which one has to factor in as well.

[Fundamental Theorem]

in that case neither vote seems obvious right?

what agenda are you playing to with this current push? i think lld’s case is a pretty damn good reason not to choose “neither”. it’s also a quite simple way scum can avoid choosing sides - so if you had to choose, which of the two players would you prefer survives?

Simple solution to the lack of accountability issue --> Force them to express their reads on the two players (regardless of what they vote).

[Fundamental Theorem]

There's really no reason to be talking about multiball right now.

so

but probably multiball so.... not really?

the multiball thing tho

also there seems to be a good chance of multiball

If it turns out we are actually in multiball - this guy, right here.

lol speculating whether it's multiball or not

Both of these posts are sketchy imo though I'm kinda inclined to give Creature a pass here.

[the worst]

yeah pretty much. idrk why people are talking shady circles around my mb spec anyway but even if it's singleball it's better to have lynches than NKs. unless you townread one of the people up to be lynched. in which case you don't lynch them.





pedit: YOU'RE THE BEST YES