SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Shoshin]

Vax, I'm assuming that you think DV is the worst's partner, so this should be an okay vote. If I'm wrong, can you clarify who TW's partner is?

[Vaxkiller]

im sure the worst is scum, but im not sure about his partner.

[the worst]

i have a reason why you can't work out my partner

[DeasVail]

Shoshin, please stop this tirade against me. I am sorry that I’m disappointing by not being awesome this game, and it’s getting to the point where you’re just slinging nonsense at me and I can’t work out whether it’s town getting carried away or scum with an agenda, but it’s just getting weird.

My reason for thinking I won’t be lynched was that Espe, Krazy and pun all seem to think I’m town and hey I could be wrong, but if you want to work with me I kind of feel you’re going about it in the wrong way.

Regarding guac, I think it’s plausible that everyone was telling the truth about their ratings but I really want to be careful about making assumptions and I think there are many potential explanations for the ratings working as they did.

[DeasVail]

I don’t mean to be bitchy but it does get to the point where you can’t tell me how to play but rather should just read me.

Also I will be rethinking my vote tomorrow.

[Punreader]

Hmmm...I don't think I have the ability to post today and I don't imagine I'll have a gap in posting in the next few weeks.
So:

Using V/LA now.

[the worst]

it actually just kinda occurred to me that if Pun is holding their shot, a no-lynch might be in our best interests.
but I feel like it's better to no-lynch tomorrow, instead...

[Espeonage]

Hi peeps. My mum has been in hospital hence no posting th epast 24 hours or so, if it's quiet at work I'll be around tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

Alright, this is why I'd like to lynch DV:

1. Shepard suspected him in the exact same way that Shepard suspected Fire (i.e. Shepard suspected DV but never made any sort of meaningful push on DV, suggesting that Shepard didn't actually want DV lynched). That's how scum tend to interact with partners when distancing, as you see in the way Shepard interacted with Fire as well as in games all over the site.

2. DV expressed a strong preference for lynching PP over Shepard on D2. Paraphrasing, this is what DV said: "I haven't read enough of Shepard to have an opinoin on him, I just want to lynch PP." I kept pushing DV to read Shepard, asking DV to explain the "weak town tell" and to look into the way that Shepard was misrepresenting me, but DV dodged that entirely to continue voting PP. He never explained the "weak town tell," nor did he make any further effort to read Shepard. Given a choice between PP or Shepard, scum want to lynch PP if they can do so without bringing undue suspicion on themselves. That's what DV did, all while dodging questions about Shepard.

3. DV kept waffling on Shepard on D3. He would say that Shepard was scummy, but then he'd look for another lynch (e.g. Maria). In the same way that Shepard suspected DV without actually wanting to lynch DV, it feels like DV suspected Shepard but didn't actually want to get Shepard lynched. Again, that's how scum tend to interact with each other when they're trying to distance without actually wanting their partner lynched.

4. DV wants to lynch Guac, yet refuses to contemplate who Guac's partner is. This doesn't make any sense from a town DV because the evidence strongly suggests that Guac's town if DV's town. Nahdia gave Guac a 0, so it's unlikely for scum Guac to be partnered with anyone else who gave him a 0 (e.g. TW, or Krazy) or even a 2 (e.g. Espe). In response, DV says that scum could have lied about the rankings, but again, that ignores all the evidence that scum didn't lie about rankings.

5. DV's play is underwhelming compared with his usual play as town. He says he's struggling to figure things out, which is fine, but he also doesn't seem to be putting much effort to actually solve the game. He says he is, but that's too easy for scum to fake. He says he's been thinking about the game a lot, rereading, etc., but he doesn't show us any of the work, so there's no way to believe him. He says he doesn't have to because people think he's town, but that's a very bad excuse for hiding a thought process, especially this late in the game when he's clearly in the lynch pool.

[Krazy]

If I understood Pun, he shoots or no shoots depending on the color of the flip. He is just adamant about what he thinks will flip what.

[Shoshin]

If DV flips scum, Pun should shoot Guac. If DV flips town, Pun shouldn't shoot Guac. Pretty simple.

Krazy, why aren't you voting DV?

[Errantparabola]

Votecount 5.6

DeasVail

(2): Shoshin, the worst

Espeonage

(2): Punreader, guacamole

the worst

(2): Vaxkiller, Krazy

guacamole

(1): DeasVail

Krazy

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(0):

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-08-17 09:55:00)

[DeasVail]

Shoshin, I have a few things I'm going to need you to respond to, because I am starting to strongly suspect you as scum. I am aware that there may be an element of OMGUS to this, but I also find the way you are pushing my lynch to be suspicious in a lot of ways. Scum probably need to have me as a mislynch, which is why I've gone a bit cold on the idea of Krazy as scum (among other reasons), as I don't understand why he would go on about me being lock-town, as scum. I also feel like going for my lynch now is the kind of thing that scum might try to do, especially since the people townreading me are unlikely to be scum nightkill targets.

2. DV expressed a strong preference for lynching PP over Shepard on D2. Paraphrasing, this is what DV said: "I haven't read enough of Shepard to have an opinoin on him, I just want to lynch PP." I kept pushing DV to read Shepard, asking DV to explain the "weak town tell" and to look into the way that Shepard was misrepresenting me, but DV dodged that entirely to continue voting PP. He never explained the "weak town tell," nor did he make any further effort to read Shepard. Given a choice between PP or Shepard, scum want to lynch PP if they can do so without bringing undue suspicion on themselves. That's what DV did, all while dodging questions about Shepard.

If you've been reading my posts as closely as you indicate (see 3088, you would have noticed that the "weak town tell" I mentioned in regards to Shepard was in relation to their reaction to me visiting them on N1. It would then be pretty easy to infer that my reason for not divulging the details of this tell were because it was related to a role that I didn't want to explicitly claim yet. Yet you include that in your case against me. Either not very well thought through (seems unlikely to me considering the comprehensive nature of your thoughts on me), or deliberately ignored.

You also mention "scum want to lynch PP if they can do so without bringing undue suspicion on themselves". You've seen my scum games. I do struggle to replicate the passion that I often possess as town, but you know that I'm competent. I doubt that you believe I would so obviously dodge questions about a scum partner as scum.

DV wants to lynch Guac, yet refuses to contemplate who Guac's partner is. This doesn't make any sense from a town DV because the evidence strongly suggests that Guac's town if DV's town. Nahdia gave Guac a 0, so it's unlikely for scum Guac to be partnered with anyone else who gave him a 0 (e.g. TW, or Krazy) or even a 2 (e.g. Espe). In response, DV says that scum could have lied about the rankings, but again, that ignores all the evidence that scum didn't lie about rankings.

"Refuses to contemplate who Guac's partner is" is an interesting use of hyperbole when my answer was merely that I don't know who Guac's partner is. The gamestate is such that there is something I'm missing because I can think of strong reasons to consider everyone as town. I am not going to use rankings to clear someone entirely. Maybe scum fudged their numbers slightly (my impression was that rankings weren't exactly as predicted, but I could be wrong). If scum did decide to be honest about their rankings, it's reasonably likely that they would have ranked partners low in some cases. It's basically the same as bussing, which is a thing that happens... all the time? You're projecting the way that you're working things out, yet refusing to consider that it may be different from how others are working things out.

. DV's play is underwhelming compared with his usual play as town. He says he's struggling to figure things out, which is fine, but he also doesn't seem to be putting much effort to actually solve the game. He says he is, but that's too easy for scum to fake. He says he's been thinking about the game a lot, rereading, etc., but he doesn't show us any of the work, so there's no way to believe him. He says he doesn't have to because people think he's town, but that's a very bad excuse for hiding a thought process, especially this late in the game when he's clearly in the lynch pool.

Again, you know that I'm competent as scum. You know that I can easily fake content to at least look like I'm trying to work things out. Why am I not doing that here?

--

They do. In fact, DV did it as scum in the games I read.

This post was also suspicious to me. My answer to "Why shouldn't we lynch you?" was "Because I'm town, pretty much". Vax took issue with someone saying "I am town, pretty much", which ignores the fact that the "pretty much" was clearly in response to the "why shouldn't we lynch you?" question, yet you inappropriately use this to convince Vax to lynch me. I don't believe that you believe the "pretty much" part of my post is indicative of my alignment. So why encourage Vax to vote for me using that. It feels rather inauthentic.

[DeasVail]

UNVOTE: Guacamole

[DeasVail]

Hi peeps. My mum has been in hospital hence no posting th epast 24 hours or so, if it's quiet at work I'll be around tomorrow.

I hope your mum is okay, Espe. Wishing her the best.

[DeasVail]

I guess to summarise, I don’t actually think that Shoshin believes a lot of what she is saying about me and I’d love her to prove me wrong

[Krazy]

Would like to hear your thoughts on the worst

[Shoshin]

If you've been reading my posts as closely as you indicate (see 3088, you would have noticed that the "weak town tell" I mentioned in regards to Shepard was in relation to their reaction to me visiting them on N1. It would then be pretty easy to infer that my reason for not divulging the details of this tell were because it was related to a role that I didn't want to explicitly claim yet. Yet you include that in your case against me. Either not very well thought through (seems unlikely to me considering the comprehensive nature of your thoughts on me), or deliberately ignored.

I didn't realize that was the "weak town tell" you were referring to. Why would you think that's a town-tell?

You also mention "scum want to lynch PP if they can do so without bringing undue suspicion on themselves". You've seen my scum games. I do struggle to replicate the passion that I often possess as town, but you know that I'm competent. I doubt that you believe I would so obviously dodge questions about a scum partner as scum.

I don't think dodging questions about a scum partner is a sign of incompetence, especially since you're using the fact to defend yourself. If anything, it's a sign of skill.

"Refuses to contemplate who Guac's partner is" is an interesting use of hyperbole when my answer was merely that I don't know who Guac's partner is. The gamestate is such that there is something I'm missing because I can think of strong reasons to consider everyone as town. I am not going to use rankings to clear someone entirely. Maybe scum fudged their numbers slightly (my impression was that rankings weren't exactly as predicted, but I could be wrong). If scum did decide to be honest about their rankings, it's reasonably likely that they would have ranked partners low in some cases. It's basically the same as bussing, which is a thing that happens... all the time? You're projecting the way that you're working things out, yet refusing to consider that it may be different from how others are working things out.

It's not hyperbole, it's reading between the lines, which is what I'm forced to do when you hide your thought process and dodge questions (and yes, you dodged more than the question about Shepard's "weak town tell," you also dodged my early questions about Fire as well as others throughout the game). As for Guac himself, I explained why Guac probably isn't scum if you're town... i.e. because the idea that scum would give a partner two 0s is very unlikely... and sure, lots of things are "possible," but I really don't care about that, I care about what's "probable," so talking about how it's "possible" that scum are bussing or that they gave their partner two 0s isn't responsive to the actual points I'm bringing up.

Again, you know that I'm competent as scum. You know that I can easily fake content to at least look like I'm trying to work things out. Why am I not doing that here?

I never said you haven't faked content. I'm saying the quality of content is underwhelming compared with your town play. As for hiding reasoning, competent scum do that all the time, so I'm not sure why you think that's a meaningful defense.

This post was also suspicious to me. My answer to "Why shouldn't we lynch you?" was "Because I'm town, pretty much". Vax took issue with someone saying "I am town, pretty much", which ignores the fact that the "pretty much" was clearly in response to the "why shouldn't we lynch you?" question, yet you inappropriately use this to convince Vax to lynch me. I don't believe that you believe the "pretty much" part of my post is indicative of my alignment. So why encourage Vax to vote for me using that. It feels rather inauthentic.

I never said the "pretty much" part of your post was AI. To the contrary, I was pointing out that your repsonse wasn't AI, because Vax mistakenly thought it was a town-tell. As you see from my case, that played no part in my suspicion of you. But to the extent Vax thought it was a town-tell, I thought that was a bad reason not to vote you.

If the scum isn't you, it's the worst & Krazy. That's a plausible team, but so is you/Guac. If you convince me that it's the worst & Krazy over you, then I'll vote them. That was my initial instinct coming into this day phase, but rereading the game didn't look good for you in any respect. If you dropped town-tells, point them out for me, because I'm not seeing them.

[Shoshin]

@DV

How'd you go from townreading Shepard to scumreading?

[Shoshin]

@DV

Why do you keep saying that scum fudged the rankings when the evidence suggests they didn't? I don't understand that.

[DeasVail]

Would like to hear your thoughts on the worst

Sure. When I said yesterday that I was going to reconsider my vote today, it was actually because I was reconsidering both Shoshin and the worst as scum options.

The worst gives me "gut town" vibes, but I don't know how much credit to put into these.

There are things I don't like. For example he has been scared of me being scum in a 3v2 situation, but I've quite clearly stated that I'm not loved in a LYLO/MYLO situation. This could be a "Freudian slip" of sorts in that scum are worried about facing me in LYLO because I would be less mislynchable. It's also possible that it's town/scum who just misunderstood my role.

Nonetheless, he seemed confident about lynching guac, yet very easily joins Shoshin in voting me, despite reportedly not having a strong scumread on me.

3264 is actually an interesting post because stating I am biased seems to imply that he doesn't think I am scum just making shit up. Because I wouldn't be biased if I were scum. The bias only works if I am town. But I was cautious to read too much into this. Scumslips are very often not actual scumslips... but what if it is??? Idk.

The worst's commenting on Partition Mafia is also not great. Re: 3291, my reads weren't as insanely good as he claims. And re: 3295 the "early call out" on muffin was not actually a serious scumread on him. So he didn't read the game very closely, but town trying to do meta checks can also do that superficially so idk.

I think that overall my read of the worst is less towards scum than what this post would indicate.
Right now I think he's more likely scum than Krazy or Espe, but where he sits beyond that is unclear. My read on Shoshin could go either way depending on how she responds to me here. Guac is not someone I'm sure of, but it does surprise me how resistant people seem to be to their lynch despite almost everyone expressing that they think they are scum or potential scum.

---

PEdit: Shoshin, I believe you're putting more emphasis on "dodging questions" than you should be. I also don't remember how I went from townreading Shepard to scumreading them, except that I was never strongly townreading the Shepard slot (which you have interpreted as distancing) and in the end decided that my reasons for doubting they were scum just didn't hold up anymore. I've also already answered why I thought their reaction to me visiting them might have been a town tell. Sure, I was wrong, but I don't get the repeated questioning of it.

As much as you may not believe this, my intention is not so much to defend myself, as it is to express my concerns about the authenticity of your thoughts on me. I don't think it's viable for me as scum to expect that people would predict my dodging of questions related to Shepard as towny, but it appears we disagree on that.

In regards to the "possible" vs. "probable" argument, the fact that we disagree on reads or even what should constitute reasons for reads, is not something that I believe will be helpful in you working out a read on me.

PEdit 2.0: I'm not saying that scum fudged the rankings. I'm keeping it in mind as a possibility since the difference between one person giving someone a 4 and giving them a 0 is not going to make a huge difference to the overall score. And I was under the impression that while estimated averages were close, they also weren't quite right, but if I am wrong about this I am happy to be pointed to the evidence that you mention.

[DeasVail]

Shoshin, I feel that you are including in your read of me an attack on how I am approaching this game and I think the fact that I don't agree with you shouldn't be seen as something that is indicative of scum.

[the worst]

I have more to say but I think there's stuff I probably shouldn't say RIGHT now
i'm also p wasted so there's that

[DeasVail]

I have more to say but I think there's stuff I probably shouldn't say RIGHT now
i'm also p wasted so there's that

Take your time but when you’re back I will be interested in what you have to say and why it needed to wait.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend btw!

[the worst]

thanks very much (wish it were a day longer ) -- you too!