Mini 2032: TAZ Mafia: Murder on the Rockport Limited [over]

[Shoshin]

I tend to frustrate scum...

[Varsoon]

To mislynch a townie, scum must knowingly argue that towny behaviors"could" come from scum. Town, on the other hand, evaluate probability by weighing of it's more likely than not that a behavior is town or scum.

That's not true at all--scum don't even need to be on a wagon to make a mislynch happen. Town perceive other town as scum all the time--it's how town loses games. Scum can also just fake evaluation, it's pretty easy--and plenty of town don't do earnest evaluation either.

For example, I looked at 886 and evaluated probability - it's likely town.

Why

Varsoon, in contrast, looked at 886, looked at my explanation that it's town, and countered by saying it COULD be scum, even though the relevant inquiry for a townie isn't whether it could be scum, it's whether it's likely scum or likely town. Varsoon doesn't care about probability, and instead is reframing probability as possibility (i.e. reframing as WIFOM), and that's a very scummy way to think about the game.

This completely disregards the fact I ALREADY GAVE MY OPINIONS ON 866 AND HOW IT IS SCUMMY
The ACTUAL CONTEXT is that you responded to ME SAYING THAT by saying you saw it as A TOWN TELL
and when I asked you why you thought it was a TOWN TELL you said it was just 'more likely to come from town' WHICH IS NOT A TELL
I pointed out that the same argument could be made that BECAUSE people BELIEVE it's more likely to come from town, it'd be a behavior that SCUM would WANT TO display because it would MAKE THEM APPEAR more town
Like how is being CAUTIOUS of another player ATTEMPTING TO APPEAR TOWN IN A CALCULATED WAY a scummy way to approach the game?

[Varsoon]

To mislynch a townie, scum must knowingly argue that towny behaviors"could" come from scum. Town, on the other hand, evaluate probability by weighing of it's more likely than not that a behavior is town or scum.

That's not true at all--scum don't even need to be on a wagon to make a mislynch happen. Town perceive other town as scum all the time--it's how town loses games. Scum can also just fake evaluation, it's pretty easy--and plenty of town don't do earnest evaluation either.

For example, I looked at 886 and evaluated probability - it's likely town.

Why

Varsoon, in contrast, looked at 886, looked at my explanation that it's town, and countered by saying it COULD be scum, even though the relevant inquiry for a townie isn't whether it could be scum, it's whether it's likely scum or likely town. Varsoon doesn't care about probability, and instead is reframing probability as possibility (i.e. reframing as WIFOM), and that's a very scummy way to think about the game.

This completely disregards the fact I ALREADY GAVE MY OPINIONS ON 866 AND HOW IT IS SCUMMY
The ACTUAL CONTEXT is that you responded to ME SAYING THAT by saying you saw it as A TOWN TELL
and when I asked you why you thought it was a TOWN TELL you said it was just 'more likely to come from town' WHICH IS NOT A TELL
I pointed out that the same argument could be made that BECAUSE people BELIEVE it's more likely to come from town, it'd be a behavior that SCUM would WANT TO display because it would MAKE THEM APPEAR more town
Like how is being CAUTIOUS of another player ATTEMPTING TO APPEAR TOWN IN A CALCULATED WAY a scummy way to approach the game?

[Varsoon]

I tend to frustrate scum...

If I was scum, your ass would be dead tonight because I'm very sick of putting up with you.
I'm not fortunate enough to be blessed with a killing action, so I have to engage with you and actually sort your slot via rhetorical interaction.
Please stop being such a stubborn ass.

[Shoshin]

That's not true at all--scum don't even need to be on a wagon to make a mislynch happen. Town perceive other town as scum all the time--it's how town loses games. Scum can also just fake evaluation, it's pretty easy--and plenty of town don't do earnest evaluation either.

Yes, obviously scum don't need to mislynch to win. They could vote scum all game without ever mislynching, while the townies mislynch themselves. I'd appreciate if you didn't put words in my mouth and actually read what I said, because I never suggested otherwise and saying "that's not true at all" when I never even suggested otherwise makes it seem like we're arguing about something when we're not.

Let's review some basic mafia theory together, since you apparently don't undertand how this works. Scum know who the town are. So when scum mislynch townies, they do so knowing that the townie is getting mislynched for behaviors that aren't actually "scummy" for that particular player. The key word in my explanation was "knowingly." I suggest you reread my explanation with that understanding in mind. The point is that scum act with the knowledge that a townie isn't acting scummy, so they must reframe behaviors they know aren't scummy as scummy. One of the ways they do this - and they do it quite often - is by reframing the behavior as "possibly" scummy, because all behaviors are "possibly" so, and because "possibly" thus "probably." It's a sleight of hand logic that scum fall into without even realizing that's what they're doing, and it happens because they're acting knowingly.

Can scum "fake evaluation"? Yes, of course they can, but that doesn't mean they always do. You didn't, because you're just not very good at this game. Don't fault my analysis because of your shortcomings.

Do townies sometimes reframe probability as possibility? Yes, sometimes. But again, I refer you to the basic fact that mafia is probabilistic - when you talk about what town or scum do, you're tlaking about what they're likely to do. Townies, more often than not, talk about probability. Townies, more often than not, don't reframe discussions about probability as possibility when pushing a mislynch on said player and without engaging the substnace of the probabilitic explanation. And players who reframe probabilistic discussions into discussoins about possibilities or WIFOM, more often than not, are scum.

If you're going to respond to this, make sure you understand what I'm saying. As is, you're making a fool of yourself by arguing things I'm not even saying.

This completely disregards the fact I ALREADY GAVE MY OPINIONS ON 866 AND HOW IT IS SCUMMY
The ACTUAL CONTEXT is that you responded to ME SAYING THAT by saying you saw it as A TOWN TELL
and when I asked you why you thought it was a TOWN TELL you said it was just 'more likely to come from town' WHICH IS NOT A TELL
I pointed out that the same argument could be made that BECAUSE people BELIEVE it's more likely to come from town, it'd be a behavior that SCUM would WANT TO display because it would MAKE THEM APPEAR more town
Like how is being CAUTIOUS of another player ATTEMPTING TO APPEAR TOWN IN A CALCULATED WAY a scummy way to approach the game?

This has to do with Irrelephant as a player and person. You don't know Irrelephant. I do. I've read all his games and played with him multiple times and talked about mafia with him. I understand his meta. I know how he thinks. And I know that as scum he exercises a lot more self-control to the point where it's unlikely that he'd say something as scum if he thought someone would interpret it as scummy. It's an unnecessary risk and Irrelephant isn't the sort to take that unnecessary risk when he can just easily town-tell in ways that don't carry any risk.

You dismissed my reasoning by saying that Irrel "COULD" fake that sort of thing. Yes, no shit he could fake it. Anyone can fake anything. That's the sort of thinking that makes anlaysis impossible. It's also the sort of thinking that scum use, as explained above. If you're town, you're never going to convince me that I'm wrong about 886 unless you do the work of reading Irrelephant's games, understanding how he plays and thinks as town/scum, and explaining why he would do something like that as scum (or finding an example of him doing something similar as scum). Until then, there's not much you could say to prove me wrong, since I'm the one who actually understands this particular player better than anyone else in this game.

Like, when it comes to NSG, I'm not going to tell RC how to read her, because he obviously understands how to read her much better than me, having a lot more experience with her and a strong track record of reading her. The absurdity of me telling him how to read her is about as absurd as you telling me how to read Irrel. And it's especially absurd when you just dismiss my read as something that "could" be faked... like, c'mon, engage my substance, read his games, tell me why he's someone who would likely fake this sort of thing. Do you have any evidence that Irrel is someone who would likely fake this?

[Shoshin]

@Varsoon

Assume Irrelephant is town. What are your reads?

[Varsoon]

"The point is that scum act with the knowledge that a townie isn't acting scummy, so they must reframe behaviors they know aren't scummy as scummy."

Not true. Town will play in ways that are scummy all the time. Scum can easily latch onto those.


I'm not keen on responding to the rest of your post because it goes much further with treating me with no respect.

[Varsoon]

You're so self-righteous and 1079 is so infantilizing that I seriously do not want to continue this line of interaction. I really wish you'd just engage me as an equal within the game space.

1080 is my preferred mode.
If I assume Irrelephant is 100% town, then
TOWN
Irrelephant
xRECKONERx
Shoshin
Gammagooey
northsidegal
SirCakez
Nosferatu
Creature
Porkens
skitter30
Kokichi Oma
Gamma Emerald
SCUM

[xRECKONERx]

the lack of opinions or attempts at solving

i feel like nothing is happening, not gonna force fake opinions

[xRECKONERx]

id prolly move my vote for a wagon on irrelephant tbh

[SirCakez]

Hey guys I'll be here tomorrow, sorry I have been busy all day.

[Kokichi Oma]

I can't believe I have one of the most posts in this game and I've basically been prod dodging for the past few days

[Gamma Emerald]

I'd take either of those right now. I think Irrel's more likely to flip scum but the combined force of Gamma's worst posts and RC's worst posts make that slot a dumpster fire for me.

”Let’s discredit the slot that is pushing me whee!”

Irrel's willingness to just push ANYONE through while saying scummy shit like him loving last minute wagons warrants rope, tons of it.
Gammagoo coming at me with "I Won't mention the game but varsoon was scum in a game once!" is reaching so far it puts Jordan's dunk at the end of Space Jam to shame.

I actually named it when I remembered Cakez was in it but thanks for making it clear you’re only mentioning points that are convenient for you.

[xRECKONERx]

I can't believe I have one of the most posts in this game and I've basically been prod dodging for the past few days

wow imagine having a life where posting constantly isn't an option

[Kokichi Oma]

I'm sure your life is so much better than ours

[Porkens]

No varsoon town.

[Creature]

No varsoon town.

Where's the comma supposed to be?

[Shoshin]

Not true. Town will play in ways that are scummy all the time. Scum can easily latch onto those.

We have different definitions of the word scummy. I think it defines what scum do, and you seem to think it's just a general term to describe a type of behavior, regardless of a players alignment. So read my analysis with that definition in mind instead of semantically making discussion between us impossible

[Varsoon]

Shoshin, I think that we fundamentally disagree when it comes to how to approach the game of mafia.
It'll be okay, I think, but I do need to keep that in mind just as much as you should.
I don't think arguing over that kinda stuff is helpful for the game at all--and it doesn't do me any wonders, either.

There's about 50 hours left, as of this post.
I would appreciate it if people would start to post their reads and come to some sort of consolidation on a wagon or two.
My vote is where I want it to be right now. I am fine with voting for GammaEmerald as well. Barring any sort of revelation/damning evidence otherwise, that's it, though.

[SirCakez]

Gamma Emerald is solidifying my town read on the slot.

for future reference since it looks like I might be dying today Gemerald's done basically nothing except state a town read Cakez and make two tiny comments on earlygame posts

there's nothing there to reasonably townread

VOTE: SirCakez

You're misrepping my stance on Gamma's posting there. Just because he hadn't made many posts doesn't mean what he had posted isn't worthy of a townread.

can you do a quick case?
I'm usually v/la on Saturday/Sunday and I want some idea of what I'm sheeping before I sheep

i think i've talked about it before. consider for a moment that the double vote doesn't make him town. what has he done that's towny this game

I agree Reck is not particularly townie but I'm also aware that this is pretty typical Reck play and thus I don't really think that's a great lynch. Maybe worth a cop or vig.

varsoon is town

Oh fuck wait Cakez is in the game someone would get the name drop
Cakez, I think Varsoon’s play is similar to in pieguyn game, thoughts?

Which pie game lol. They all blend together.

And I realize now I got my gammas mixed up
Emerald is actually fine.

I'd take either of those right now. I think Irrel's more likely to flip scum but the combined force of Gamma's worst posts and RC's worst posts make that slot a dumpster fire for me.

Irrel's willingness to just push ANYONE through while saying scummy shit like him loving last minute wagons warrants rope, tons of it.
Gammagoo coming at me with "I Won't mention the game but varsoon was scum in a game once!" is reaching so far it puts Jordan's dunk at the end of Space Jam to shame.

I'm talking about Emerald in both these posts, should be obvious, sorry, I am literally stupid.

And I realize now I got my gammas mixed up
Emerald is actually fine.

Gooey* is actually fine
HolEEE shit

This chain of posts skeeves me out. Like did Varsoon declare a TR on Gammerald then realize that doesn't fit his tunnel of the RC slot and just pretend he got them confused??

Also I really don't want to lynch Irrelephant. Better options.
We also need to pick a gacha owner.

[Varsoon]

I just got them mixed up, dude.
It's really fucking obvious that

Gammagoo coming at me with "I Won't mention the game but varsoon was scum in a game once!" is reaching so far it puts Jordan's dunk at the end of Space Jam to shame.

is about GammaEmerald.

[Varsoon]

Like this post specifically.

Reck's my choice. I don't care if it's a good choice. The fact that my choice doesn't seem like a good choice to you makes me that much more sure that I want to go with my choice.

Yeah I think Varsoon is scum. He has a particular arrogance here that is similar to a past game I’ve played with him (no name drop because no one would get it). He seemed especially arrogant in pushing his mislynch of choice that game (drealmerz7).

[Varsoon]

My Gacha pick is still Recknoner.

[SirCakez]

oooh you got me there

[Gamma Emerald]

oooh you got me there

I never played a game modded by pie
I’m referring to the one where pie was backup IC, it was modded by GiF